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Just to be clear on the timeline here: July is like, 4 days away. But with the spring offensive being launched in June, it’s possible that the July peace talks might not happen until September.
The Ukraine is known to give things deceptive names in order to boggle the minds of their dim-witted opponents. It’s similar to how the Vikings named the ice land “Greenland” and the green land “Iceland.”
RT:
Peace negotiations on the Ukraine conflict could begin as early as next month, German state-TV channel ARD has claimed. According to the broadcaster, senior officials from a number of global powers held a meeting last week in the Danish capital Copenhagen to discuss the issue.
ARD reported on Sunday that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was among the dignitaries present at the event. According to the broadcaster, the main objective of the gathering was to secure the support of ‘neutral’ countries such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa.
The high-ranking meeting represented a major step forward toward actual peace negotiations, ARD claimed. Citing its Brussels bureau, it added that talks could get underway as early as July.
Last Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Sullivan, along with high-ranking State Department official Victoria Nuland, would head a “diplomatic offensive” at Ukraine’s request. Their purported objective was to convince powers from the ‘Global South’ to scale back their relations with Russia.
However, the officials were not confident of succeeding, the FT claimed. The newspaper quoted an anonymous European official as acknowledging that the “rest of the world is not convinced” by the West’s stance.
…
Meanwhile, taking to Facebook on Sunday, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov, wrote that he would not rule out Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s participation in future peace talks involving Russia.
As I always say:
- I do not have any insider information, and
- I am not a wizard, or in possession of any sort of mystical or magical powers.
Therefore, it would be ridiculous for me to make predictions about things that will happen in the future.
“Predicting the future” has become a popular game among political commentators, as it is viewed as an easy way to gain credibility. What they all do is throw out tons of predictions, enough so that a handful will necessarily be correct, and then when the majority do not come true they ignore those and focus on the few they got right just by the nature of statistical odds.
I focus on the right-wing, because they’re the ones doing this in a way that is so offensive to me personally, but the left does it too. The left is actually probably worse about it. I’m old enough to remember when MSNBC was predicting every single day that the very next day Donald Trump would finally be caught red-handed colluding with Russia.
(NOTE: I’m not sure the left does this for political points in the way the right does. I think they are more about promoting a fantasy world by creating complex conspiracy theory narratives and then pushing off the need to prove them by claiming the proof will come at a later date. The right also does this, notably with QAnon and with Sean Hannity type theories about how Democrats are going to be arrested soon.)
So, I just want to be clear on that: I don’t make predictions.
The right is so inundated with prediction-makers that it sometimes seems like people are suggesting I’m bitching out for not making predictions. As if everyone has to make predictions, and if you say you don’t make predictions, you’re refusing to play by the rules. But seriously: I don’t have insider info and I am not a wizard. Why would anyone think I could predict events?
What I can do is look at the information that is available to all of us and try to figure out where things are going. Based on what people are saying and doing, I can look at potential outcomes.
There were only ever three potential outcomes to the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
- #1: Russia wins the war, most likely through some kind of negotiated surrender by the extant Kiev Junta (less likely, it could be through a coup in the Ukraine, either assisted or unassisted by Russia)
- #2: The US/NATO enter the war and it becomes a global war, and
- #3: The pressure from the war and sanctions causes the Russian government to collapse, the country Balkanizes, and America installs various puppets.
There was one outcome that was never a possibility at all:
- #4: The Ukraine wins a war outright by dominating Russia on the battlefield.
No matter how many weapons they got, and no matter how terribly Russia fought, the sheer differential in the sizes of the countries made #4 always impossible. At various points, the US’ top players, including the war’s main planner, Victoria Nuland, have said that #4 is impossible and the goal in saying you are trying to do #4 is pushing for #3. Meanwhile, many believed that Nuland was actually pushing for #2 behind the scenes.
One would have thought that #3 was off the table after the Russian economy was saved, but the attempted coup by Wagner’s Top Jew Prigozhin showed that this is still a possibility.
It is impossible to say that #1 is “more likely” than #2, as it is impossible to predict the behavior of the US government. Saying “surely, Jews wouldn’t do something like that” has not ever worked out well for anyone.
That said, #1 is what any rational person, without any insider information, would have naturally assumed was the most likely.
I was seeing signs, and noting them on this website, that #1 was in the works in the West, long before this debacle of a failed counteroffensive (which the Ukraine authorities are now officially claiming was a series of probes, by the way). People in positions of power were getting cold feet, top level think tanks were publishing claims that the war was pointless and should end, the “Keev” government was looking less and less stable, the Ukrainian population itself was running out of warm bodies to throw into the Russian war machine, and the US government was pivoting to attacking China.
Now, after the commitment to the killing fields of Bakhmut, and the slapstick comedy style counteroffensive, this has become the biggest debacle in military history. There is nothing that even comes close to the Ukraine debacle, as no national army in all of history would have kept fighting for this long while knowing they would lose. This situation was only possible because of the unique situation of the Ukraine being controlled by a foreign power that was apparently trying to get the entire population killed on purpose, and the ability to use electronic media censorship to convince the population both that they were winning the war and that the enemy was planning to kill them all out of pure mean-spiritedness.
In a situation of #1 negotiations, the US puppeteers would tell their puppet Zelensky that the jig was up, and order him to attend peace talks with Russia and do whatever Putin wanted him to do. The US would then claim that it was all Zelensky’s fault – that they wanted to keep fighting but he wouldn’t do it. Conversely, they would also claim both that they actually won, because Russia didn’t conquer the entire Ukrainian territory, and that at some point in the future, they would come back stronger to destroy Russia.
We are now at the point where Ukrainian officials have begun to break the ice on the topic, and hearing rumors of plans for talks. Of course, the Ukraine and the media are continuing to claim that the Ukraine is winning in their “counteroffensive,” pushing #4 as the inevitable end, just around the corner.
Maybe negotiations will happen in July. That’s certainly very possible at this point.
However, the war could also keep going indefinitely, and the US could also announce a “limited” NATO deployment at any moment. There are people in Washington right now arguing that the failure of the counteroffensive is just more proof that the Ukrainians need more help, and there are three or four dozen US Senators who would enthusiastically support #2 with no questions asked. Antony Blinken was out there on Sunday arguing that Prigozhin’s drunken fail coup is proof Putin is weak and now is the time to start putting more pressure on Russia.
If I were forced to bet on it, I would bet that negotiations of some kind are organized before the end of the year, but that the war drags on for another year or so. It seems like there is enough energy behind the financials of the war, and enough apathy among Americans and Europeans, that they really don’t have any reason to wrap it up quickly, even if they’re ready to start scaling it back. If they give up on actually trying to move the line, and pivot to holding the territory they currently have, the Western equipment would be more effective, and they wouldn’t be burning through so many boys.
However, within another year or so, Russia will most likely strengthen their army and try to move on Kharkov and/or Odessa, and it’s possible that there is enough sense in Washington to try to keep those in negotiations.
Who Wants What?
Ultimately, I don’t think there is a single person who knows how this is going to play out, and whatever happens is going to be the result of jockeying between various forces in the West.
These groups want a pullback/wind down/wrap-up:
- Top-ranking military officials
- The think tank intelligentsia
- Israel’s current authorities
- Anti-Chinese extremists of all shades
- German industrialists
- Silicon Valley tech bros
- Whatever MAGA elements remain in the Republican Party/donors
These groups, conversely, want to keep pounding and potentially start a world war:
- The media
- NATO
- Arms contractors
- BlackRock
- Extremist Russian Jews with a megalomaniacal obsession with Russian Jewish history
- Soros type NGOs
- Democrat politicians
There is obviously overlap between some of those groups, and the lines wouldn’t be totally clean-cut (even the arms contractors could split if they figure that stockpiling arms to threaten China would be more profitable – in April, Biden announced plans for four new bases in the Philippines). But on the whole, this is what I’ve observed, and you can see them doing the back and forth in real time.
Things to Watch
Recently, there has been a big push to get Israel to commit to the Ukraine. If Bibi Netanyahu agrees to do that, it’s probably a signal things will keep rolling for a while, as Bibi Netanyahu very rarely agrees to do anything he doesn’t want to do.
Beyond that, we’ll obviously keep an eye on the arms transfers, though that could give the wrong feedback. (It’s possible that if the US was getting ready to negotiate, they would send a bunch more equipment for the stated purpose of negotiating from strength while for the real purpose of getting as much of it destroyed as possible so they can replace it.)
Even discussing negotiations at all is a big signal, though that is still being observed. Remember that Boris Johnson flew in in April of 2022 and ordered Zelensky not to negotiate for peace. Zelensky had publicly stated that he was willing to surrender the Donbass and agree to neutrality. Following that, Zelensky signed a decree that made it illegal to ever negotiate with Russia. (He can obviously sign a decree rescinding that decree, because the Ukraine is a vibrant democracy.)
What does not seem to be a factor at all in the calculus of anyone powerful is just how badly this war on Russia has damaged the US’ standing on the global chessboard. The way that this has empowered China is my favorite topic, but aside from the think tanks (and that wild Fiona Hill speech), no one really even brings this up in the West. The media simply ignores completely the fact that there has been an epic sea change in the Third World towards aligning with China.
It appears also that failures in the Ukraine are almost as irrelevant as the failures on the global stage. Presumably, this talk of talks comes in light of the failure of the counteroffensive/”cascading series of probes,” but there are no statements from anyone in power linking the two together. As I’ve said repeatedly over the last few weeks, while the Ukraine military was getting slaughtered in their counteroffensive, and there were all of these viral clips of Western tanks being blown up, the media was running headlines saying that they were on the verge of conquering Crimea. The media narrative obviously doesn’t necessarily reflect the internal discussions of the decision-makers, but it appears to me that we would all be shocked by how much they overlap (that is to say, it appears to me that many people in decision-maker roles would prefer watching CNN and reading the New York Times to reading the technical data on the war).
Be Mindful of Predictors
In conclusion, I would just restate my above point: don’t take predictions too seriously.
Making predictions can be fun, but it can easily spin out into a fake reality. People talking to large audiences have a responsibility to those audiences, and they should not pretend to be orb-pondering wizards.
Overall, the Western world feels extremely unstable. Maybe these people will start World War III, maybe they will keep up a simmering state of high tension across the globe until they can’t anymore. Maybe the economic collapse will continue apace, maybe it will speed up. Regardless of how the details play out, the trajectory is the West is unambiguously downward.
No one has the ability to change these things that are happening. The reason that I communicate them to you is not because I think anyone is going to change anything on the global scale, but because I want to help people make decisions in their own lives, which will ultimately be what leads us to a better world.
In general, I would say that focusing on the downward trend is much more important than getting riled up by big events. I say this obviously as someone who got quite riled by the events in Russia last week, but that was a state of riling that existed in the context of the thing happening live. At that point, it’s justified. However, if you spend your life expecting some major world-changing collapse event to be coming along any day, you might end up not paying enough attention to the general downward trend, and therefore your decisions may not end up being as informed as they might have been.
I encourage you all to make informed decisions about your future and, insofar as it is within your power, about the futures of your family members. Personally, I feel very strongly that you can’t go wrong in scaling back your life, moving to a rural or relatively rural location, and getting a handle on some degree of self-sufficiency.
Some of you reading this, I know, are sitting in cities and scared to death of what your kids are being taught in school. You wouldn’t be worrying about that if you’d taken my advice and moved out of the city in 2020. Moreover, when you live in a safer environment that you have more control over, you’re going to spend a lot less time thinking about the next big happening, and more time enjoying your life, spending it with people you care about, doing things that bring you joy, and creating bright spots in the darkness that is the 21st century experience pattern of occidental man.
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Viking, what a pity they didn’t name someplace Boggleland.
No peace until Russia gets what it demands. Period.
{ It’s similar to how the Vikings named the ice land “Greenland” and the green land “Iceland.”}
ROFL !
Predictions about all these future wars. OK, I’m not making a prediction but how about some other war? How about a united Arab and Muslim world going to war against Israel and US in the Middle East with Russia and PR China playing the role in the Arab camp that NATO plays in the Ukraine? The aim being to get the US kicked out of the Middle East and Israel defeated and handed over to the Palestinians? Isn’t it about time Russia and PR China became pro-active and started working to hurt their enemies where they have the best chance of inflicting damage, using Muslims as proxies? Maybe not too soon, but in the mid- to long term this is what they should be working towards: uniting the Arabs and Muslims, arming and training them, and advising, consulting, and sending their mercenaries to assist in this endeavour. This is the only future war worth thinking about.
The actual forces include Putin’s budget. War is expensive and nobody has mentioned what it’s costing him. He may think battle-hardening his army is very worth it. Or not.
Best to assume Zelenskyy is selling 40-60% of the weapons he’s being given for personal gain. None of them would reach UAF hands if he didn’t need to pretend they were disappearing on the battlefield instead of at the bazaar. (“Oh man oh gee more tanks lost in the field. What a shame.” “Oh noes, that missile was shot down by Russian AD, tee hee.”) He will quit when he stops getting free shit to sell. Or when someone physically puts a gun to his head.
The war is intended to embarrass Biden. (Imperial prestige? Who cares about that?) It is unlikely to stop being an embarrassment to Biden et al any time soon.
Evil viziers puppetting folk like Biden show an extremely marked tendency to never give up. They keep doubling down until they can get a win, or become physically unable to push further attempts. If you can bait them into entering a quagmire, it’s checkmate.
Blah blah blah. But I totally agree with your conclusion. Get the fuck out of Dodge.
OT
With Wagner “Coup” Leaving Russia (Exclusive Prigozhin) Special Report
An interesting video from Patrick Lancaster on the ground in Rostov as Wagner was leaving the city — you see Prigozhin being driven away, and Lancaster even manages to exchange a few words with him — also interviews with seemingly reasonable people, albeit some might say a bit naive and too trusting of their leadership — but they realize unity is very important for Russia now, and many appear to have genuine admiration, even affection, for Wagner troops — no real racial diversity, which is nice to see.
IMHO if the U.S. / NATO enter the war officially it will only hasten their demise. No matter the outcome, so much war making material and capacity would be lost that they would need years to recover if they ever could. Russia on the other hand has the capacity to replace their losses. They also have China as an ally.
If Israel and their supporters want this war then they should consider what happens if their vassals conventional war fighting capability is crippled. China and Russia know who is behind all of this aggression.
Mr. Anglin,
Your writing has come a long way. Less sophomoric, more cohesive and heartfelt, at least as far as this article is concerned. Well done.
Video Link
Let me guess victory for Christendom and Russia amirite Anglin? Ziggers need to wake up they are worse than NAFOniggers. Wagner is loved in Russia way more than the Jew friendly mixed race rats of The Kremlin. Either way will be interesting to see how the “gangland” struggle continues. Putin is too old and his cronies too corrupt. Shoigu went no where FSB still gonna liquidate anyone in the command structure who participated. Gonna be a wild ride hopefully patriots in both east and west realize we are being used again and start turning our guns on the jews and shabbos goy in D.C., Moscow, New York, London, and even Beijing.
Since we are talking about predictions.
The “make this a better world” conceit parroted here, no matter the “politics” of who’s pushing it from time-to-time and place-to-place, always exposes the fatal flaw in their “thinking.” The LivingLoving Arrangement of Earth and Sky is in no need whatsoever of “fixing”….most especially by those slap-happy fools so captivated with the “civilization” wasting disease process. So these endless attempts to do that always and inevitably worsen the condition the wannabe fixers’ own Condition is in….leaving them even more alienated and disconnected from Nature than they were. They’re then even more driven to “correct” things by even more feckless and futile meddling, in their ever-increasing misery, with what they go on failing miserably to understand.
Around and around and around and around they go, whirling toward Oblivion (a station stop on the Black Hills Central Railroad) in the absolute Mother-fucker of all positive feedback loops. Hear that lonesome heterodyne whine.
Meanwhile, us surviving Free Wild Peoples here in Indian Country can recommend a very simple, though hardly easy, Way for our domesticated Human Relations to go about resolving their “better world” conundrum. They can instantaneously bring about this “better world” they claim to want just by being better people. It’s absolutely guarandamnteed to work every time!
That is essentially what Andrew Anglin is saying in the closing paragraphs of this essay. “Let’s go back to Luckenbach, Texas….back to the basics of Life.”
Here, we might say to somebody suffering from that depressing and oppressive contrived and actually-illusory isolation, you need to get over your “self” sickness. That’s what is keeping you “individual”-ly sealed-off from your true Human Nature. Then you can coalesce spontaneously into the natural Organic Form of HumanKind, which is neither the artifactual “individual” nor its reactionary breeder the unstable “nuclear” family throwing-off all those radio-activated “rogue particles” nor the muddled “herd” of them being stampeded right now into the megadeath-trap of “the new world order.” That natural organic Human social arrangement is called in Lakotah, for instance, Tiyoshpaye, but all the Native Languages have a word for it. It is in belonging with and to your People that you will recover the Organic Integrity essential to adequate fulfillment of our given Human Organic Function in the LivingLoving Arrangement of Earth and Sky as a component of their natural immune function.
No, it don’t come easy, but “A train’s a comin’.” ready-or-not, “up around the bend.” Oh, and leave all that baggage behind.
Bullshit
There were three negotiations. And those were two too many. Putin is not poppet.
There will not be any negotiation. Ukraine must be denacificated.
Did Romans negotiated with Carthago?
I disagree…Medvedev and the hardliners clearly have the upper hand, so Ukraine will be conquered and Kiev flattened if necessary..The only peace possible is the Ukrainians unconditionally surrendering and Russia achieving all of its goals and permanently neutralizing the area….
Putin has been tricked twice by the US, and he will not be allowed to sign any more treaties with them..And the Russian public, highly patriotic as usual, wants exactly that…
Great Tetons picture. When I google image searched the second picture on that page was a mama grizzly bear with a couple of cubs.
how about bonerland?
Video Link
Was the attempted coup by Wagner Group a Western PR stunt intended to give Russia bad publicity just as it is achieving victory? Mercenaries are probably the most bribable people in the world.
Israel isn’t going any where and the Arabs are more interested in video games and house parties than fighting over a bunch of Palestinians whom they frankly wish would stop having so many children. The Sunni Muslim fundamentalists who are the only people still willing to sign up for suicide-bomb duty have all been killed, imprisoned, or kicked out of Syria, Egypt and the Peninsula to go be someone else’s problem.
medvedev has been ending all of his speeches with “furthermore, i consider that ukraine must be destroyed”. he then drops the mike and walks out.
Sneaky CIA loser cowards are talking peace, maybe. They need to run away and get on with the let’s-you-and-him-fight Gladio shit.
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/patriot-front-unmasked-as-feds-pretending
Medvedev is like, we can talk about that after we nuke your fuckin loser beltway into oblivion.
at this point, Uncle Schmuel/NATO/(((Zelensky))) have crossed so many of Babyface Tsar’s “red lines”
with no counterblast from Russia
that US/NATO will certainly intervene directly, w troops, and fairly soon.
what will Babyface do? As usual:
fume, fulminate, make nuclear threats, and then
nothing.
Needs more double fisting and rimjobs.
How it’s going: https://pomf2.lain.la/f/tp8msxsp.mp4
Please make sure that you brace yourself at the 9:15 mark.
For someone who “doesn’t make predictions” Mr. Anglin makes quite a few of them. Still, the advice about moving to a rural area and becoming independent is spot-on. I wish I could do that. Maybe one day, hopefully before the dollar crashes.
And yet you persist in attempting to continue to make predictions and UNZ gives you a platform to spread your un-predictions. So strange.
Putinism’s demise will be chaotic and violent
Russia’s opposition — much like the West — seems doomed to watch helplessly from the sidelines.
By Jamie Dettmer
June 26, 2023 11:59 pm CET
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted putsch has demonstrated the fragility of Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. Or as Russian opposition leader Mikhail Khodorkovsky puts it: “Now the country and the world know it’s possible to rebel against Putin.”
Facing no resistance, the paramilitary boss’ band of heavily armed rogues, cut-throats and penal conscripts crossed into Russia from occupied territory in Ukraine, seized control of Rostov, a key logistical hub and military headquarters, then proceeded up the M4 highway towards Moscow, only facing opposition around Voronezh, a six-hour drive from the Russian capital, but still managing to come within 240 kilometers of the capital’s outskirts.
On Saturday night, Putin might have thought he could sleep a little easier after a deal was struck under which Wagner Group’s mercenaries would disarm or be folded into the Russian army, while Prigozhin would be packed off to Minsk. But — to what must be Putin’s intense chagrin — even that arrangement seems to be morphing, with a defiant Prigozhin insisting on Monday evening that Belarus is offering to allow him to keep his band of Wagner renegades together as a fighting force. In a sign of frailty, Putin said the Wagnerites were free to go, but it’s still unclear from Prigozhin’s first post-coup audio message whether he has actually withdrawn to Belarus, or ever intends to.
Remarkably, the whole escapade over the weekend required only about 8,000 fighters, though that’s still a lot of people to be in on a secret operation. Prigozhin is an opportunist but his insurrection showed signs of preparation, and it remains likely — though surprising — that some parts of the surveillance state failed to pick up on what was afoot and preempt him.
…
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-wagner-group-rebellion-vladimir-putin-demise-will-be-chaotic-and-violent/
Putin is leading Russia down a ‘suicidal path’
Times Radio interviews John Lough – Associate fellow for Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House;
190,432 views Jun 25, 2023 #TimesRadio
Former NATO first Alliance representative John Lough says Prigozhin’s mutiny shows the ‘deep irreparable cracks’ in Putin’s leadership.
Video Link
So there you see an actual deep Cia plant, all trained up in the Ru language who gets face to face with the man Langley needs to send covert messages to, poison cleverly and undetectably, pay, or shoot as the situation demands. And American twerps think he’s pro Russian or an “independent journalist.” IQ Zero
None of us gentile deplorables would shed even a single tear over the demise of America’s Bestest Ally Ever.
I believe one of the two occasions you allude to was when the Russians and the US had worked out an agreement concerning the deployment of their respective forces in Syria. The agreement was effectively ended when the Americans “accidentally” (and repeatedly) bombed the Russians.
(From what I understand, this happened so often that even the most generous interpretation of The Fog of War would not account for it.)
However, assuming the above is correct, I am not aware of the second occasion (though knowing the West, I do not doubt it). Could you please elaborate on it?
stranger still, that you read them. stranger danger.
it’s nato that is playing russian roulette. you keep doubling down, one time, you’ll get the bang instead of the click. click, bang, what a hang…
The next plan of the jews is to attack that nuclear power station that is under Russian control. Zelensky has already mentioned about how the Russians are planning to destroy it, and Lindsey Graham is trying to make such an event a trigger for NATO to intervene. Since the necon jews always end up doing these things and always double down, I see a nuclear exchange happening very soon not peace. I just hope all major jewish population centres (including Israel) are destroyed first.
You best straighten up and fly right or you’ll be banished to my ignore list, never to be read again.
I would recommend you write when you’re not high on marajuana or ayahuasca, you’d make more sense then.
This whole “rebellion” was a finely orchestrated ballet planned by Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin for reasons that we can only speculate on, perhaps to weed out people who can’t be trusted. If it were a real coup or rebellion, and Putin had really felt threatened, Putin would’ve destroyed the rebel troops and sent Prigozhin to meet his maker.
It shows the Jew of Bakhmut to be a typical Jew.
Thanks Putie! Actions have consequences…
——-
Russia mutiny revives stagnant talk of increasing Ukraine aid in Congress
Senators are calling for more funding, even if it runs afoul of the debt deal.
06/27/2023 05:20 PM EDT
The turmoil in Russia is giving Ukraine’s allies on Capitol Hill new ammunition in the fight to secure more weapons and aid for Kyiv.
It’s still unclear what the brief mercenary rebellion will mean for Russia and Ukraine, but lawmakers argue the schism between Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a sign Western-supplied weapons are working, and that Washington needs to navigate skepticism in Congress to keep the tap open.
Bipartisan pressure to spend more on the military was already brewing in Congress, and specifically on more aid to Ukraine, even if that means breaking the debt limit deal that capped defense funding at the administration’s request of $886 billion. On Friday, hours before Prigozhin’s forces charged into Russia, the Senate Armed Services Committee released its version of the defense policy bill and called on President Joe Biden to seek more money for Ukraine.
…
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/27/lawmakers-russia-rebellion-weapons-ukraine-00103913
It all vanished in Bakhmut. Along with 6 billion in cash. Truly a win win for the tribe.
The only thing certain is that weird shit is going down in Russia. Weird shit happens in weird places, and it doesn’t get much weirder than Putin’s Russia.
Needless advice….this Old Man never touches the stuff, but thanks anyhow. As for making sense, it’s at-least a possibility that anonymous[293] is somewhat challenged in the reading comprehension department. Granted, though, anonymous[293] is likely blissfully unaware of much that is referenced and described in such offerings as the one here eliciting the above comment….even-though these are mostly phrased in plain words that are in everyday use….admittedly sometimes put together in unorthodox ways unfamiliar to your average user of the “modern” iteration of “English.”
Granted also that “English” is itself too semantically impoverished a language to convey adequately things its inventors and managers mean to make virtually unthinkable to its users anyhow….things that are just part of our ordinary conversation here in Indian Country. Nevertheless, The Grandmothers say trying to refresh the memories of our domesticated Human Relations, about their origins and continued presence in a Reality quite unlike the encapsulated virtual world-o’-hurt they’ve been programmed to believe is “all-there-is,” despite the “language barrier” is worthwhile.
By virtue of having received some of the benefits of the government boarding school system, and being not much good for anything else anyway, this Old Indian gets to take a run at that….partly on forums such as this. Meantime, anonymous[293] should not feel so all alone in not being able to “make sense” of it. Us surviving Free Wild Peoples went through that same thing when the insanity of “civilization” first washed-up on the shores of Turtle and Hummingbird Islands.
oh please br’er dogfaced boy, please don’t throw me in your ignore briar patch.
GPT?
There will be no peace then.
Most people do not seem to have much perspective on this war. It is highly unlikely you would have a neutral, non-committal, or theoretical outlook on this war if you lived in Rostov-on-Don. You have probably been concerned since at least 2014 that the West is stirring up an Anti-Russian civil war in Ukraine which could easily spill over into your city. Mariupol is about 100 miles away. You could easily have relatives in that area.
Like most of Western Russia, Rostov-on-Don has been through three wars in the last 110 years.
The West is trying to attack Russia in Ukraine. The border is roughly 75 miles away. Rostov is the local Russian headquarters.
It easy to believe that Rostovondonians are excited to see Wagner. They may not even care about the politics.
It would be interesting to see a poll of these folks. These people are probably tired of seeing bodies and wounded men, but what is their mind set the next time Zelensky or some Polack threatens destruction? At some point people will say F-it, just level Kiev. That’s why we have a military, what am I paying taxes for anyway? Call me when you are done.
There are around 1,000,000 Russians in Rostov-on-Don alone. If Crimea were to become a hostile territory and shipping out of the Don estuary were attacked from Berdyansk and Mariupol (let’s say by Royal Navy ships based in the Azov Sea policing western sanctions) the several million Russians along the Don and the Volga (which feeds into the traffic via canals) would be mobilized to sack Kiev and erase it. The excuse, collaborating with Jews, acting as a willing NATO proxy. It wouldn’t be a matter of a legal claim to land, more about merely getting to eat.
Prigozhid may have accidently triggered something very interesting here. He intended to take over Russia for Global Israel by replicating the Crim Tartar raids into deep Russia from Rostov on Don. It’s got to be triggering for Russians to see that shnozz try a coup on exactly the same route used by the Ottomans and Giray’s Crim Tartars. The Izium War Path returns.
Uhmmm… isn’t this what ended up happening?
The US supports Ukraine in order to weaken Russia. This goal of the US and its European vassals has repeatedly been openly declared. Putin and the Russian people of his generation are still under the influence of the shock they experienced with the end of the Soviet Union. Many Russians believe the theory that the US financing and arming of the mujaheddin in Afghanistan brought about a situation of too much spending for the military the consequence of which was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It seems that Putin is trying to play a similar game with the western countries supporting Ukraine. The cause of the slow way the Russian armed forces are proceeding against the Ukrainians could be that the Kremlin wants to prolong the war. Prolonging the war the US and other western supporters of Ukraine have to send more money, more expensive western arms and equipment to Kiew. The Russian armed forces seem to be under a strict budgetary discipline. This is probably done to make sure that the Russian side will be able to continue with this war for years to come. The Kremlin seems to hope that the Western powers will continue the support of Ukraine weakening their own financial stability their economies and their tax base.
Yeah right…:
US to give Ukraine $500 mn in military aid: Pentagon – https://en.mehrnews.com/news/202555/US-to-give-Ukraine-500-mn-in-military-aid-Pentagon
Fixing the Ukraine War
The William White Plan
1. Drop all the sanctions, new Government; none of the existing members are eligible
2. EU to rebuild NS 1&2, Russia will sell gas to the EU for half of what the Americans are currently charging, price increase to the cost of living for 20 years.
3. Ukraine Neutral, no army, no weapons, no NATO, Russia to provide protection and Police services for 50 years.
4. Russia takes to the River , Odessa is Russian but the Port will be free for Ukraine to ship through.
5. The Rump stays but the Nazi’s must go. Any talk of Nazism will result in long jail sentences or death.
6. Freedom of Religion and language to be guaranteed.
7. Election must be fair and democratic, certified by the UN, no foreign powers allowed on Ukrainian soil at any time unless licensed by Russia.
8. No nuclear weapons in Countries bordering Russia.
9. No western Banks in Russia or Ukraine.
10. Foreign embassies to have a staff of no more than 50 people all accounted for at all times. No attachments to foreign governments [fake embassies].
11. All foreign business’ wishing to do business in Ukraine must obtain a license from Russia. No appeals.
12. Ukraine must pay all rebuilding costs from the war, any foreign contractors must be approved and supervised by Russia.
13. Russia will control all border points, Visa and passport departments for Ukraine. No duel citizenship for Ukrainians. To retain Citizenship Ukrainians must physically live in Ukraine at least 200 days per year, minimum stay 90 consecutive days. People wishing to travel must be up to date on their taxes or they can’t leave, maximum $20k US dollars equivalent allowed to take out of the country.
14. No foreign Land owner or corporation can own any more than $500k US dollar equivalent in property.
I look upon this as a starting point, greater minds than mine are available, I would start with Mr. Lavrov
After the treachery of Minsk I and II and ‘NATO will NOT move one inch to the East’, let alone the West’s duplicity around the world for centuries, Russia would be INSANE to accept anything but unconditional surrender by the Banderite regime.
Any Royal Navy ship in the Azov Sea would be sunk in minutes. Not even the psychos who rule the crumbling ruin of Perfidious Albion are that mad.
Wow flashback, I just remembered why people in the rest of the world liked 2016 vintage Trump.
He was right about America being better off as a dove with teeth. I sure do hope Americans can learn to MAGA along in their own neck of the woods in stead of playing global Batman.
TBF Iceland isn’t terribly green. It was well named.
Even in summer it’s pretty bleak. Barring potatoes (very short growing season), anything that is grown for humans to eat is grown in greenhouses, heated by volcanic water.
You do get some grass in summer for horses and cows to eat, but the season is very short – by September they are brought indoors. If you want cheap protein there it’s fish, fish and fish.
OTOH it’s pretty much 22 hours of daylight at this time of year – you’ll see golfers finishing a round at 10.30 pm.
Btw it looks as if a number of “advisers” aka special forces or mercs may have been hit in a Kramatorsk pizza place. At least one guy tending the wounded has a US flag on his kit and others seem to have Ranger tattoos. The guy saying “there’s soldiers under this rubble” sounds South African to me.
This might actually be amusing to watch – there´s this little thing called the
Montreux Convention, see; Türkiye would give you the finger (probably
Romania and Bulgaria too) and anything remotely smelling of ZATO would
be swept from the Sea formerly known as Hospitable.
“let’s say by Royal Navy ships based in the Azov Sea”
The Royal Navy doesn’t have enough ships to fill Portsmouth or Portland Harbour, let alone the Black or Azov Seas. It’s a shadow of what it was.
And when it was the world’s biggest Navy, it still had a lot of trouble trying to get into the Black Sea. They failed at the cost of 70,000 dead and many more wounded and mutilated.
Video Link
* despite the ANZAC memorials, the majority of casualties were Brits. But Australia had a much smaller population.
15. Neutralize Germany; actually the Soviets offered exactly that in the 1950s
(and it may well have been the original plan, à la Austria) but Adenauer sold
out to the Murkans.
16. A Baltic Free Trade Zone – with Montreux* status – would make a lot of sense also.
*Need I really remind anyone that “Poland” is landlocked?
Excellent article.
Jake Sullivan, the progressive plenipotentiary parasite is a blow fly feasting on the dead corpses of Russians and Ukranians who should be, with Nuland, burned at the fuckin stake on live TV.
It’s too late to be dumb. We all know too much now and will never sleep again, unless it is in Elysium.
So.
Ukraine is loosing about 100 soldiers a day. That means that every 10 days Ukraine is digging 1000 graves. So every 50 days Ukraine is loosing a brigade.
According to this the war may last more than a decade.
I don’t get it. Bart is in fact correct…
It seems that energizing some of this popular Russian pro-War sentiment was a result of Prigozhin’s road trip and possibly one of the purposes of it.
The more wounded men Ukraine has, the less functional society becomes as the daily task of running things becomes more difficult.
An advanced society where nearly half the people have left does not have so many people available to send to their deaths as cannon fodder.
By the end of ww1 Britain was occupying Constantinople. The guff about Gallipoli tends to overshadow it. By the end of the Crimean war the RN was shelling Mariupol and Rostov.
The speculation about the RN operating in the Azov Sea to enforce sanctions on Russia really did trigger some posters.
It really isn’t far fetched. It has happened before. The Ukraine state is effectively going to try to do this and was doing it. Also Russian ships in Azov have been sunk using RN surveillance in this war.
Unless total disbanding of NATO and the US breaking up into six autonomous nations is not the opening offer of the West, negotiations are a nonstarter.
Lots of mercenary soldiers and teenage Slavic girls killed in a pizzaparlour in Ukraine.
Your plan is much too complex and complicated. I offer this much simpler plan.
—–
Fixing the Ukraine War
The meamjojo plan
1. Russia withdraws all its troops to the pre-2014 borders. Ukraine agrees not to violate Russia borders.
2. Russia signs a future non-invasion of Ukraine agreement
3. Russia agrees to turn over all its war criminals to the world court.
4. Russia agrees that it will pay for all damages incurred by Ukraine and all rebuilding resulting from the Russian invasion and continual bombings. This can be done by releasing its claims on assets presently stored in foreign countries (to be turned over to Ukraine) and via its future oil/gas sales revenues.
On Russia’s agreement and the withdrawal of all troops and equipment form Ukraine, Western sanctions will begin to be lifted in stages based on performance of the remainder of the agreement.
Never made it near the 9:15 mark. 2 minutes was all I could handle. Should be required viewing throughout Ukraine. Zelensky would be gone in 24 hours.
His Russian isn’t too great as far as I can tell. He gets by.
Feds were supposed to infiltrate groups to be able to know if those groups were planning violence, and to be able to interdict that from occurring. They were not supposed to be “creating” crimes by psychological means to set up people to perform crimes they otherwise would not have. The FBI now has a few very political “silos” within it that need to be rooted out and shutdown, with a fre senior agents forced to retire.
Greenland is covered with ice, and Iceland is very nice! Maybe Putin has a slapshot up his sleeves for these jews trying to pincer him.
What a waste of intelligent human life. That soldier who got his leg blown off at 9:15 by jumping on that mine, had a lifetime of useful work ahead of him, making wealth in any industry, making the world a little better place. He could have been a great husband and father. He will now by physically and psychologically scarred for life because of neoconservative creeps and their zillionaire supporters wanting to basically take over the entire world for the Western top 1%.
No, peace isn’t on Washingtons agenda, a new cold war is, a dog always returns to its vomit and a failed state will return to its glory days.
As the world is looking elsewhere what is happening with India and China? This deteriating relationship has gone under the radar, they are having a tit-for-tat removing of journalist from each others country at the moment?
NATO DOLT STOLTENBERG IS A WAR CRIMINAL
NEO-CONSERVATIVE US STATE DEPARTMENT JEW NULAND IS A WAR CRIMINAL
GLOBOHOMO LINDSEY GRAHAM AND MOST OF THE REPUBLICANS ARE WAR CRIMINALS
NATO MUST BE TERMINATED WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE
NUKE WEAPONS FOR GERMANY AND ITALY NOW
Be fair. The Crimean war was a VERY long time ago.
The Royal Navy is a pale shadow of what it was either in 1945, 1918, or in 1864. It’s a shadow of 1981 for heaven’s sake. Our shipbuilding has all gone. Couldn’t put a Falklands Task Force together now. That’s why we built a huge runway there.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2012/04/05/remembering-the-titanic-and-a-lost-era-of-manufacturing-greatness/
As the world’s erstwhile largest shipyard, Harland & Wolff once constituted the cornerstone of the prosperity of the entire region of Northern Ireland. Not anymore. Faced with formidable East Asian competition and handicapped by an overvalued pound sterling, it has not built a ship in decades and its workforce is down more than 90 percent from its greatest days of industrial leadership in the 1940s and 1950s (the company has survived only because it has invented itself as a niche player in the renewable energy business). Its virtual demise has sounded the death knell for hundreds of local suppliers making everything from ropes to machine tools. No industry of any scale has arisen to take its place, with the result that the once famously prosperous province has long now ranked as one of the sickest regions of the United Kingdom.
Your plan is extremely simple, and extremely unlikely ever to be implemented. More likely is a Russian-only Black Sea Coast and Transnistria joining the Mother Country, while Galicia goes to the highest bidder and Kiev is the capital of a neutral and much diminished Ukraine.
But Zelensky will be RICH …… and in Florida or Israel.
I wonder if at any time Europe will realise just how much they’ve been conned? US Foreign policy has been brilliant if cynical – a whole continent now dependent on the US.
Much of the Ukie Navy is a place holder for the RN. And of course the RN triggered things with the sail by by HMS Defender outside Sevastopol.
Andrew Anglin@!
Write an article on what you think about Vivek Ramaswamy!!
Video Link
never said he was wrong, he gets more right every day.
Sure if by some voodoo Ukraine conquers Crimea the RN might be in the Sea of Azov. This does not seem possible at the moment.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris may be President soon, so anything is possible.
I think we can agree that the prospect of a war like the one CM envisions is probably not likely in the near future, but to say that ‘Israel isn’t going anywhere’ is, however much you care to think otherwise, equally unreasonable.
While it’s a bit early in the timeline and I, like Anglin, am no great prognosticator, it is obvious to anyone who’s been paying attention to Israel’s domestic situation that the country is beginning to tear at the seams.
There’s already a significant flight of both people and capital which will only continue to worsen if Israel’s political trajectory proceeds as it has.
Long story short, Israel is imperiled. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer country.
That’s possibly a South African English accent.
It was striking how much of the Royal Navy was sunk or damaged in 1982, not by the Warsaw Pact but by a medium-ranking place like Argentina.
Regardless of the outcome of this war, the fact of the matter is that another white country has been destroyed. Whether you like the people of Ukraine or not isn’t the point, how is a country that has been heavily depopulated going to rebuild? Central europe is the last bastion of the white race and they don’t have the economic or military resources to resist the nwo. Western europe is gone, America and Canada are gone. Is everyone ready for their social credit score lifestyle being imposed by the bastards? We’re being exterminated. Having fun yet? Remember to teach your daughter to engage in miscegenation and teach your son to suck dick, that way your social credit score will go up. You’ll be allowed to eat next month. The 24 election will be stolen too. In ten years the US will be a third world shithole. Hmm, lets see, who profits the most from the white world being destroyed. Planning your next vacation? Imagine the thrills and excitment visiting Nigeria or Cambodia or Honduras. Oh wait, you won’t have to travel, you’ll already live there! Once upon a time there were wonderful places to live on earth, they were called white countries. FTG
You could say the exact same things about Lebanon and Syria and they’re both still around.
The liberal Jews are leaving Israel (guess where they’re ending up) and the conservative Jews are staying. The PM and Knesset are cleaning up the country’s rotten judiciary. Israel is becoming a more Middle-Eastern country.
Putin is clearly losing the war in Iraq. You Nazis should never bet against America 🏳️🌈
No clue what Russia is doing or why anymore. Fighting Nazis? I thought it was initially done to end ethnic cleansing of ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Apparently it has nothing to do with that anymore, but rather it is all about being stuck in both the past and mud. At times it seems like Russia is just doing their bit for the Globohomo Theater. So my prediction is it all ends when there is no more money left to launder thru Ukraine, almost no more Ukrainian male Gentiles left to kill, and we are well into the next plandemic.
Now, after the commitment to the killing fields of Bakhmut, and the slapstick comedy style counteroffensive, this has become the biggest debacle in military history.
The U$A has become the biggest military and geo-political debacle in history.
Just to get the facts correct.
The difference with Israel is that its condition has depended largely upon foreign assistance for many decades, whereas Syria and Lebanon survive in spite of being at the polar opposite end of said largess. Israel ‘becoming a more Middle-Eastern country’ bodes ill for the illusion it has sold to America and the west for lo, these many years, which is why there’s been significant flight of people and capital. They sense it is doomed not only because of this, but because demographic trends also favor the ultra-religious Zionists.
The current coalition’s idea of ‘cleaning up’ the judiciary is to turn it into an even worse instrument of aggression against Palestinians than it already has been.
No, Israel is failing. It’s just a matter of time.
a lot of irony in these 40 seconds
‘elections rigged’
‘political opponents are imprisoned or otherwise eliminated from participating in the electoral process’
‘the result is an absence of checks and balances’
‘the decision of one man, to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq..’
then listen to them giggle when Bush says ‘Iraq too’
like it’s a joke
reminds me of how he joked about there being no WMD, in a room full of similar scum
Sarcasm is the lowest form of humour.
Karma is a bitch, ain’t it.
Iceland was green, until sheep arrived. People are reforesting it now.
As we used to say when I was a young dude,
” Andrew you don’t have a hair on your ass if you don’t start predicting.”
That was how we dared somebody to do something fucked up.
Good Argentine airforce. However, it was a small task force. Showed what could be done under fire by an over tasked professional outfit with a history and point to prove.
But yes, it shows how out of date a Navy could be.
At least he corrected himself. Presidents don’t even need to show up though. Just phone it in.
Lloyd Austin is a Voodoo like future.
That shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Wagner rank & file are basically ex-military (and ex-FSB), and have acquitted themselves well in Syria, in Africa, and in the SMO.
The Wagner ‘cadre’ are quite different, though. The 50 or so people within 2 cells of the org-chart from ObeseNosferatu are not significantly different from organised criminals. They let their subordinates do all the sketchy shit familiar to anybody who’s ever worked for orgs like that – extortion, drug use (and dealing), abuse of detainees and so forth.
The only things that I would explicitly rule out are organ-harvesting; child exploitation; and direct sex-trafficking – and I’m pro Wagner.
I don’t understand how people like Rolo pretend to be baffled that it’s entirely possible to be pro-Wagnerand pro-Russia and anti-Prigozhin.
Wagner didn’t attempt to destabilise Russia the other day; PRIGOZHIN did.
Wagner hasn’t been talking bullshit about the Russian military trying to #AnuddahShoah Wagner; PRIGOZHIN has.
Less than 10% of Wagner’s manpower took part in the weekend’s chicanery, and more than a few of those involved had no real idea what was going on.
I’m certain there is a ‘fifth column’ in the Russian military – and a 6th, and probably an nth, for n = all integers between 6 and 10 – but the claim that Surovikin was among the co-conspirators is a Langley concoction that is absurd.
A task force comprising a large part of the Royal Navy’s active warships.
I remember having a copy of Whittaker’s Almanac in 1982 which listed all the active British warships, and I also remember crossing ships off as they were sunk. It was a nearer-run thing than the British typically realise.
What’s interesting about this Falklands War is that the Admirals at Admiralty pressured the Prime Minister to act; and act quickly to send the entire fleet. She was actually very very hesitant and after what I’ve seen of it she was manipulated into the fight by these Admirals. In the English mythos having ships sunk is not a very big deal. It’s almost like the Russians bragging about how many 10s of millions of Russians died in the onslaught of Barbarossa. Something a normal country would be ashamed of the Royal Navy is just expected…to do its Duty.
https://tubitv.com/movies/571568/the-falklands-play
This Drama goes into the clever way the Admirals did what they did. There are several subgeniuses in the navy still.
58:00:00 the Admiral tells everyone in The room how war works.
My recollections at the time (I was 18) were that when the Sheffield was hit and later sank, British suddenly realised they were in a war, and against a not totally contemptible “dago” opponent. Up to that point the level of jingoism was off the scale.
They are trying to keep the niggers of Paris at bay.
The Admirals were absolutely certain they could win this.
And the Admirals made sure HMG went to war. They were one step ahead of Thatcher every step of the way.
The French sold them just enough Exocets to do some damage and not to sink the whole fleet.
French also gave Brits the radar signatures of the Exocet, so it could be tracked a lot easier and avoided, or jammed, or shot down.
At the time it was presented as the Iron Lady being totally determined. The military brass were just executing orders.
Whether that was really the case – who knows?
I don’t think anyone actually expected Britain and Argentina to go to war, and the French probably had no idea Argentine weaponry would actually be used against a power like Britain. 1982 was the year of the Skyhawk, as I remember – Argentine ones were filmed by the BBC doing an attack run on British ships in the Falklands, and Israeli ones figured during their invasion of Lebanon. One was shot down by the Syrians and its pilot captured and later exchanged.
It’s also striking how much military equipment the British and the Argentines had in common. Both sides for example used versions of the FN self-loading rifle. British troops running low on ammo found that Argentine bullets from captured stores were compatible with their own rifles. The British Sea Dart missile performed rather disappointingly against Argentine planes and missiles. This may have been because the only other users of the Sea Dart were the Argentines, who had purchased a stock of them before the war, and they were well aware of its strengths – and weaknesses.