In the event that the United States and Israel launch a preemptive attack on Iran, Iran is prepared to deliver a withering response that will destroy US military bases, oil production facilities, critical infrastructure, and command and control centres across the Middle East. In short, Iran has the ability to set the entire region ablaze at the flip-of-a-switch due entirely to its prodigious missile capability which surpasses that of either the United States or Israel. Check out this excerpt from an article at The National Interest titled Why Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic Missile Is a Disaster for Israeli Security:

Two years ago, in June 2023, the Islamic Republic of Iran unveiled the Fattah-1, the country’s first hypersonic ballistic missile—at least according to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. Fattah means “Conqueror” in Farsi.

The missile represents a significant milestone in Iran’s military ambitions, signaling its intent to project power—and highlights the radical, evolving nature of Iran’s missile threat. In many respects, this threat is even more of a concern to Western strategists than Iran’s threshold nuclear weapons capability. After all, even if Iran developed such weapons, it could not use them without inviting its own annihilation. But if Tehran had truly developed a hypersonic ballistic missile, everyone knows which nation it would be first to target….

Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow predictable parabolic trajectories, the Fattah-1 features a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), enabling it to adjust its course mid-flight, both within and outside Earth’s atmosphere. This maneuverability, facilitated by a solid-fuel propulsion system and a movable secondary nozzle, is central to Fattah-1’s ability to evade most advanced missile defense systems, such as the Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome—or even American systems like the Aegis and Patriot.

In other words, the presence of Fattah-1 should give both the Americans and Israelis pause as to agitating for preventative air strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities. Why Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic Missile Is a Disaster for Israeli Security, National Interest

Repeat: The US and Israel’s most advanced missile defense systems, (the Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, Iron Dome, Aegis and Patriot) are useless against Iran’s hypersonic missiles. In other words, the Fattah-1 is unstoppable.

🇮🇷Iran’s Fattah Hypersonic Missile, 400 seconds to Israel🔥 pic.twitter.com/IPXvMy2dee

— Zeinab (@Zeinaab_Mk) April 12, 2024

Does Donald Trump know any of this?

No. Trump is surrounded by “yes-men” and neocons who only tell him what they want him to hear. He’s locked inside a foreign policy bubble in which all the occupants believe in the delusional myth of “American invincibility”. Trump thinks that obsolete carrier groups and B-2 Stealth bombers will win wars even when his adversaries have modernized and stocked their arsenals with state-of-the-art ballistic missile systems that can elude any of their outdated air-defense systems and put their payload directly on the target. Here’s more from the same article:

While U.S. B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers could likely clobber Iranian nuclear facilities from the air, the Iranians can threaten retaliation against a long list of targets in the region—exposed U.S. bases near Iranian territory, sensitive oil refineries in neighboring Saudi Arabia, U.S. aircraft carriers in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and even distant Israel. The bounty of soft targets in the region is a profound threat against which there is little reliable defense….

Iran’s possession of missiles like the Fattah-1 means that Iranian retaliation is a significant threat to the region. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem should not downplay this real threat to their safety and economic prosperity.

And, for all the naysayers saying that Iran’s previous rounds of “massive retaliation” against Israel within the past year have fallen flat, it’s important to understand the geopolitical context. Iran appears to have held back its most important weapons in those retaliatory strikes—and there is evidence to suggest that they pulled their punches following pressure from their primary military partner, Russia.

Why Has Iran Been Holding Back?

Although the Russian hold over Iran is strong, the fact of the matter is that previous Israeli strikes against Iranian targets have avoided the country’s suspected nuclear weapons development facilities. These facilities represent the equivalent of the Holy Grail for the Iranian Islamist regime.

If either the Israelis or Americans struck these facilities and destroyed them—or even degraded them—it is unlikely that even Russia’s hold on Iran would dissuade the enraged Islamists from striking back against U.S., Israeli, and Saudi targets in ways hitherto unimagined.

Therefore, the Iranian missile threat is real. It should be avoided, if at all possible. And while negotiations with Iran are unlikely to achieve much, air strikes are a strategic mirage. The uncertainty and instability they can unleash in an already chaotic region is not worth the risk. Why Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic Missile Is a Disaster for Israeli Security, National Interest

What’s interesting about this article is that the author—who appears to be a strong backer of US and Israel—is offering a word of caution based on his objective analysis of Iran’s astonishing missile capability. He is not making a moral judgement about the impending war itself, just informing the presumed perpetrators that they will face stiff resistance and could lose. That’s right, the US could lose a war with Iran. (In fact, that very scenario has been ‘gamed out’ many times in the past and the outcome was always the same.) At the very least, an outbreak of hostilities with Iran will send oil prices skyrocketing, equities markets tumbling and the global economy into a death spiral. Trump hopes to minimize the damage by escalating quickly to tactical nuclear “bunker buster” weapons that (he thinks) will bring the conflict to a swift end. But that’s not going to happen. After all, Iran has been preparing for a war with the United States for nearly two decades and they are ready to go. Any attack on their nuclear facilities will put the dominoes in motion triggering wave after wave of ballistic missile attacks on soft and hard targets in Israel and across the Middle East.

Naturally, a number of analysts think that the Fattah-1’s abilities have been greatly exaggerated and are all a part of an Iranian propaganda campaign. Not surprisingly, these are the same people who want to drag the US into a war with Iran. It’s worth noting, however, that even the conservative Washington Post provided “satellite imagery from Planet Labs and expert assessments, that confirmed that at least 24 to 32 (Iranian Fattah) missiles struck or landed near Israeli targets, including 20 to 32 hits on Nevatim Airbase, three on Tel Nof Airbase, and two near Mossad headquarters. (The most protected sites in the world!) Damage was limited, but this indicates some missiles evaded interception.”

So, some missiles were intercepted?

Not likely. As the author confirmed, US and Israeli air defense systems are incapable of shooting down Iran’s hypersonic missiles.

By the way, the damage was “limited” because Iran did not use their more destructive warheads. It was basically a ‘show of force’; a “shot fired over the bow” of impulsive aggressors who don’t grasp the magnitude of the catastrophe they’ll face if they blunder ahead with their misguided strategy. Of course, coverage of the Iranian attacks has largely been concealed from the public to ensure that Trump doesn’t get ‘cold feet’ and refuse to launch air strikes according to plan. In short, Israel has set a trap for Trump, and Trump appears to be walking straight into it. This is from a post at the Middle East Spectator:

Iran’s 2,000 kilometer range ‘Sepehr’ OTH Radar has finally become operational, satellite imagery seems to confirm

The radar array is one of Iran’s most advanced over-the-horizon radars, more than 1,5 kilometers in length. It can detect takeoffs of individual aircraft or ballistic missile launches at a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, including inside the entirety of Israel.

Only a handful of countries have mastered such advanced OTH radar technology, and the radar provides Iran with valuable early warning of an imminent attack. Middle East Spectator

So, Iran has developed advanced radar systems that can detect any enemy aircraft or ballistic missile that is launched from 2,000 kilometers away. Which means the Iranian military will have ample time to engage their defensive assets while ordering whatever first-wave ballistic missile strike they have in mind.

But that’s ‘just for starters’ because—as we know from the tit-for-tat air strikes (that took place) between Israel and Iran last year; these cutting-edge, multi-layered air defense systems—(that have been integrated with Russian S-200, S-300s, Chinese systems, and other unknown elements)—forced Israeli aircraft to turn around and retreat during their April 19 attack. As it happens, the Israelis “never got closer than 70 kms to Iran because they were locked onto by “an unknown air defense system” that spooked the Israelis prompting a hasty retreat. As a result, the Israeli pilots were forced to fire their long-range missiles at targets that were too far away to be effective. In short, Iran’s air defense system forced the Israelis to scrap their mission and return home after inflicting only minor damage to Iranian military sites. There is every reason to believe that a similar scenario will unfold if US fighters and high-altitude bombers are involved.

Conclusion

1. The Israeli air assault shows that Iranian air defense systems—which rank among the best in the world—can detect and counter stealth aircraft like the F-35
2. Iran’s electronic warfare systems enhance its air defenses by disrupting enemy targeting or communication
3. Iran’s advanced radar systems—that can detect any enemy aircraft or ballistic missile from 2,000 kilometers away—provide ample time for Iran’s military to engage their defensive assets and order counterstrikes.
4. Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic missile—which travels at a speed of Mach 13 (roughly 10,000 mph)—can evade any US or Israeli air defense system and deliver its warhead precisely on target

Former Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector, Scott Ritter summed it up like this:

If we get into a war with Iran, we will not win … Iran has a significant ballistic missile force, with an extraordinary capability. It’s capable of targeting American naval vessels, sinking American aircraft carriers…War with Iran would be suicide and the US will lose.

A word to the wise is sufficient.