Top Military Powers of 2020

Always love these posts Anatoly. Good job.

1) I think China has the advantage in building its military specifically to counter the US in its own back yard. Hence China’s push towards carrier killer missiles, long range air to air missles, and the J-20 to take out refueling tankers and AWACS.

America is building more of a generalized military.

2) I’m skeptical of America’s 5th generation fighters. F22’s are no longer in production and they will either wear out or their parts will wear out which will be harder to find.

The F35 looks to be a flying brick.

I think China will have 5th Generation fighters that actually work.

3) In time of war China will be united, but America? America will probably collapse in Civil War in 10 years anyways.

Also, I don’t think America could get East Asian countries to join up against China/Russia/Iran.

The attacks on Asians in America is getting a lot of coverage throughout all of Asia.

I think you’ll see Asia as a while turn away from the west, and once America’s economy crashes that will be even more the case.

Hi A. Karlin, when are you going to post your Great Bifurcation article???

Congratulations Anatoly on this update to your excellent CMP series!

The proposal to create an interactive CMP website with an open database is a good and bold one. It will probably require the work of many people.

Morale and national survival is more illuminating than IQ etc. If you believe in the rightness of a cause then you’ll volunteer rather than be drafted, and you’ll shoot to kill rather than shoot to miss.

I suspect Russia or China, alone, could win a short, conventional war, in which both sides were afraid of it going nuclear, against the USA in the likely theaters (Taiwan, the Ukraine, Baltics).

We know from Syria that Russian forces these days are highly professional, lean/mean and so on. We know from youtube that plenty of Russian young men still love danger. We can’t really be sure how good Chinese soldiers are, but probably the Chinese are way, way more willing to take casualties than US personnel, if nothing else.

It’s no secret that the various branches of the US military have been totally hollowed out by woke-ism, and the integration of prostitutes into the units (aka women in the military). Even if this weren’t the case, the ugliness of US society, and the fact that the USA isn’t actually threatened by anyone, undermines motivation to fight. Even if the USA has better weapons (who knows), who is going to die for the gay empire? I say the moment these sailors/soldiers realize they are goin’ toe-to-toe with the Russians/Chinese, they mutiny, or lose their sh*t. I simply can’t imagine US forces dealing with a real war, with real casualties from a sophisticated power. Russia and China only have to bloody the bully’s nose and he’ll back down.

Agree, the Japanese/Koreans/Filipinos/Viets have to live next to China until the apocalypse, they will really try to avoid being dragged into a war. This is especially true as the USA is so obviously in decline.

“…IQ scores from Lynn & Vanhanen or David Becker. They are not perfect either – in particular, they would not capture the meritocratic element, which has also been fast declining in the US military based on Marine officer test scores – but they are however the most objective and universal measures we realistically have.”

Okay, sounds reasonable. But maybe an effectiveness-reduction should be assessed when there are egregious lack-of-proficiency events, such as destroyers colliding with slow-moving merchant ships. Some wag likened this to a Chevy Corvette being struck by a bulldozer on the Bonneville Salt Flats while an entire team of trained personnel was helping the Corvette to avoid the bulldozer,

Wasn’t Grenada the last time the USA comprehensively won a war? Kuwait would have been a victory if they had known when to stop.

India is 40% of Rus in Land/Air.

Meme video but the charts are good, main takeaways:

India is mostly light, motorized infantry v Russia’s mech
India has almost no Para forces
India has almost no SPG & a dearth of MLRS

Indian Mil structure is basically NOK, fuck tons of Light Infantry & Para-Military; little else.

I do think cultural or other elements are necessary but capped at +/- 5 or 10%.
Some factors:

1. Recent history of conflict maybe a +5% if major conventional war in last 5 years, 2.5% for coin
Decaying by 0.5% a year after that?

2. Cultural/Political factors:
Wokeism v Imperial history ie Dutch/UK think Empire was good.
Ahimsa v Imperial Ideology
Diversity: Is there a “second majority” ie 15%+ with political representation
Recent Economic Growth: Would be indictive of moreale
Recent Political History: Same as above

War Experience capped at 5% & any of those 5 cultural factors capped at 5%.
Easier to just focus on giving bonuses instead of negatives, and focus on top 10-15 if not 20 powers.

I think a blend of IQ with average height of young men at a 75-25 or 65-35 ratio would be fair.

Yeah, anyone who suspects the US military will be divided fails to understand the logic of people joining a national army. The Imperial Russian Army was full of Polish and Finnish officers. It took a full-scale Imperial collapse and a radically dangerous, antagonistic, and alien government (the Menshevik\Boksheviks) for Mannerheim and his Polish and Baltic Equivalents to switch to localist Nationalism. America’s government and military elites are united, have been since Smedley Butler, and even the most secretly “National Populist” General is going to be a Stalinist-era type who keeps his head down and quietly does military things.

For years, when some hipster-types spoke of “Cascadia” as a separatist movement (rather than a redrawing of state boundaries) I always pointed out the fact the local military bases would never allow a secession. This goes the same for any idealized Midwestern Secession. Simply, the people in the army serve the people who give orders. They’ll shoot coal miners, they’ll shoot hippies, and they’ll shoot modern deplorables and antifa if they went off script enough. The Confederacy only happened because States were genuinely…well, entities at the time, and if modern Americans had the gall for an open civil war we would have done it already. I do love my people, but I see also they aren’t quite my people anymore, nor have they been since the 1880s.

All of this just means, of course, any “competing” (independent) power’s best bet remains to be economically productive enough it could survive America’s eventual economically-induced retraction (not collapse), and militarily powerful enough the Powers That Guide Us decide running their own fiefdom is an acceptable alternative. God save us from this mad mundanity. Russia, China and Iran will be an entertaining substitute, though for their sake I wish them peace and prosperity.

Wishful thinking. This war is going to be fought with unconventional electronic weapons, drones, and special forces.

Any analysis should include China’s upgrading of its Coast Guard. My opinion is that they are creating a “presence” without risking war. These carry increased armament, and have been placed under military control, but still, are not warships The worst-case scenario is an exchange of small-arms fire. More likely, they are playing at bumper-boats. The new cutters possess gigantic size for ramming, and flat sides for shouldering. The USCG has increased its deployment to the W. Pacific; and just finished joint exercises with the Japanese CG. The use of CGs lets off steam without risking transforming the world into a nuclear ash pile.

This seems to be too pessimistic about Russian vs. Chinese military power, the navy is not going to be that relevant in a conflict between Russia and China, neither China’s nor Russia’s best units are located in the Russian Far East, with most of them located elsewhere, and Russia has nukes and a lot of strategic bombers that can threaten Northern China, and the Amur is quite wide and difficult to cross if the bridges are down, compared to the Meuse. Plus Russia has dug in defensive positions at the border and already lots of plans to deal with a Chinese invasion of the Russian Far East back from Soviet days.

What would the CMP have looked like between Germany and France in 1940? BTW, why is everyone not talking about the very well equipped JASDF and JMSDF here, they have the 2nd largest navy in the Far East, and SJWs are not a problem for them. Also do not count on Korea to ally with China, SJWs are also not a problem for the ROKAF and RKN.

Also SJWs are not a problem for the Indian military, people here just tend to talk about the US and China going it alone. What would a China vs
Japan, Taiwan, US, and possibly India conflict look like?

It would be one fraught with massive coordination issues with so many combatants. We’ll see that if there is a NATO-like organization in Asia but I’m skeptical.

I mean Japan and the US already have a MDT which covers the Senkakus.

What explains the Ukraine’s collapse from in 3.8 in 2005 to 2.6 in 2010? Was the “Orange revolution” that bad?

India is a huge, but disfunctional third-world country, with no domestic arms production. Its rapid ascent in the ranking is therefore baffling, and shows the limits of Karlin’s methodology. Personally, I would place India below Iran, whose power-projection capabilities are considerable.

Saudi Arabia is a military non-entity with some overpriced American junk, that they don’t know how to use effectively. I would rank it below the Ukraine.

between 2015 and 2020 almost all countries (Saudi Arabia stayed constant) gained in CMP strength relative to the USA. Has Trump slowed down investment in the military? Will Biden reverse this trend?

UK,Japan and Turkey trailing Saudi Arabia?

Honestly, as it stands right now, I see no hope of the US winning a conventional war against China even at this very moment. I do not believe that the US could stop a Chinese conquest of Taiwan.

The US has the most powerful air force to have ever existed. Its advantages in numbers of modern aircraft, AESA radars, EW capabilities, BVR capabilities and stealth leave Chine and Russia in the dust. HOWEVER, this advantage counts for naught if it can’t be deployed in the region of conflict.

The US has 11 carriers. At any moment, due to maintenance issues, 4 will be in the docks, leaving 7. The US can’t just leave its home waters in the atlantic and pacific unmanned, so two aircraft carriers will be diverted as well.

That leaves the US with a maximum of five aircraft carriers which could deploy roughly 210 F/A 18 super hornets at any one time. Realistically, the maintenance requirements and age of the fleet will ensure that 160 will be available for deployment at any single time.

US airbases in Japan and Okinawa are simply too far away to sustain combat patrols over Taiwan.

In contrast, the Chinese have roughly 930 4+, 4++ and 5th gen fighters in their arsenal. The distance from China to Taiwan is a mere 230 km or so.

Due to the threat of Chinese anti-ship missiles, submarines and frigates, the US navy will have remain at least 500 km or so away from Taiwan. The F/A 18 only has a combat range of 700 km and sortie rates are low for carrier based aircraft to begin with.

So at any given moment, the F/A 18 Super hornets will probably be outnumbered 5-1 or 6-1 over the skies of Taiwan.

The Taiwanese air force can largely be discounted as it would be destroyed on the ground in the initial Chinese strikes. China’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will crush it on the ground. Hypersonic missiles are a pretty hyped toy nowadays, however its usefulness against moving targets like warships are questionable.

However, hypersonics are excellent weapons against fixed targets like air bases and radar stations.

Then there’s the naval factor. The US navy has greater tonnage but the Chinese navy has greater numbers. Larger ships only matter when you’re operating in the open oceans far away from home. The conflict will take place within a 1000 km of Chinese shores for the most part.

In ww1 the size of vessels were an issue because only larger ships could carry large guns. But in this age of supersonic guided missiles, a cruise missile will destroy a large destroyer just as easily as it destroys a cute Corvette.

The Chinese have about 60-70 frigates and destroyers, along with 2 aircraft carriers. They will far outgun whatever forces five US carrier groups can bring. Plus the Chinese have 66 submarines which will operate defensively, close to the Chinese shores.

Another thing to consider is the age of the fleets. The US navy is old, most of its arleigh burke class destroyers are over 30 years old. Their engines and hulls are old. The Chinese navy in contrast is newborn and fresh.

So all in all, my guess is that the Chinese will probably take Taiwan even if the US intervenes. And if Taiwan falls, the US plan to blockade China will collapse as its linchpin in the South China sea will fall.

If a war was fought today, the odds are squarely with China.

India wouldn’t be that big of an issue honestly. It would be like the Italian front of ww1. The entire Indo-Chinese border is inhospitable himalayas ridge. No offensive can break through it.

The Chinese can however easily overrun the seven sister provinces of India in the East.

Japan would be a deadly foe however. It has a phenomenal fleet and a capable air force.

Big shout out to You Anatoli for your eclectic interests and your allowal of autoposting of comments.

Nonetheless, we see that NATO brings its share up to 41.5%, still far ahead of the Sino-Russian bloc, let alone either China or Russia separately. This hints at the great multipliers the US gains from its system of alliances (if they can be successfully coaxed in should a conflict develop into World War III). Tacking on Japan (1.9%), South Korea (2.4%), Taiwan (1.0%), and Australia and Canada (0.8% each) increases the Western bloc’s share of military power to almost half the world’s total – most likely fully half adding in various minor satraps.

Adding in Ukraine would give the Western bloc an addition 4.0% here. And of course there is also Israel, but the Israelis prefer to have others do their fighting, fulfilling the “cunning Jew” stereotype! 😉 Ditto for Saudi Arabia, but replace “cunning Jew” with “cunning Arab”! 😉

Anyway, excellent job with this analysis, Anatoly! 🙂

It’s quite interesting–do you think that Russia could have ever been brought into the Western bloc, Anatoly? But of course this would have very likely required Russia to give up any claims to a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe (at least outside of Belarus)–though a Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia would have likely been allowed by the West so long as Russia didn’t actually go too far in regards to this (political integration and all of that).

Also, would South Vietnam have also been a part of the Western bloc had South Vietnam somehow managed to survive up to the present-day?

India has a couple aircraft carriers and lots of subs, they locally produce lots of things like airplanes (licensed from Russia) and tanks (ditto, though they also have their own inferior battle tank). They also have nukes.

Just think about the Americans attacking India: attacking Iran would be difficult, but attacking India would be just impossible.

I agree about Saudi Arabia, they are an anomaly, and very difficult to assess. Would their soldiers be any better in a purely defensive war? Maybe. I don’t know. But certainly I wouldn’t consider them too strong militarily, despite the many expensive shiny toys.

The Civil War also allowed the Northern US to impose its desired peace upon the Southern US–specifically the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the US Constitution. The US Supreme Court initially narrowly interpreted these amendments, but later on, especially starting from the Civil Rights Era in the 1950s and 1960s, these amendments were interpreted by the US Supreme Court much more broadly.

By no means is India below Iran. The Indian air force is very strong, with 230 or so SU-30MKI equipped with Israeli sensors. Plus it has upgraded Mig-29s and a fresh squadron of Rafaele fighters from France. The Rafales are probably the best non-stealth aircraft in the world with unmatched BVR and EW capabilities.

The Indians also have an aircraft carrier.

Iran can’t make any modern military equipment. While it can produce large numbers of modern ballistic and cruise missiles, that’s no substitute for an air force or navy. The Iranian air force is old and antiquated, its best aircraft are F-14s left over from the 1970s.

Plus the Indians have a large smart fraction of Brahmins. I have no idea if they go to the military though. The Iranians are tough, they can probably defeat Saudi Arabia despite technological inferiority or even hold off Turkey.

But they are far weaker than India. India does however lack the ability to domestically produce arms. In a protracted war with China, it could run out of equipment pretty soon.

Why the Hell would the US ever actually attack India?

How dare Canada not included –it was Canada who defeated Hitler on the Eastern Front dressed as Russians.

“India is a huge, but disfunctional third-world country, with no domestic arms production.”

Sure..

Aircraft Carrier

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikrant_(2013)

Road Mobile ICBM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agni-V

Independent GPS satellite network

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Regional_Navigation_Satellite_System
…

But please don’t let facts get in the way of your opinions.

“Personally, I would place India below Iran, whose power-projection capabilities are considerable.”

LOL.There are people in whose personal opinion Russia is overall less powerful than the UK. You know the UK has aircraft carriers that aren’t accompanied by tugboats,has quieter submarines,better planes EF 2000/JSF and more modern ships and is a global financial centre with a larger economy..As for nukes well Russia won’t risk the destruction of all major cities guaranteed thanks to the Trident D5/Vanguard so the fact that it has 10 times more doesn’t really matter..

On a more philosophical note, it is fascinating to observe fault lines harden and alliances coalesce just when critical milestones in relative military power are passed. Almost as if geopolitics is like some kind of chemical soup, subject to natural laws, with all else (e.g. “Uyghur genocide”, “WuFlu”, etc.) being naught but sound and fury, signifying nothing.

The MSM's choice of what is important within complex systems is always laughably off-target, whether they are dealing with an epidemic, geopolitics or stock market price action. Natural laws are beyond their ken.

I remember when India and Pakistan had recent border clashes, India deployed a couple of MIG 21 (1960 plane), which got shot down obviously. After this humiliation India rushed to place an “emergency order” with Russia for a fresh batch of SU-30.

Perhaps, the Brahmins didn’t make it into the country’s military institutions, or the merchants (whatever the Brahmins do) don’t make good military planners. Either way India’s approach to developing its armed forces is haphazard at best. From what I can tell Rafale deal was motivated by corruption. They got an outdated jet for a price of F35.

The Rafales are cheaper to operate than the F-35s.

Overall India is a mixed bag, but it can certainly produce some weapons, overall their domestic industry is stronger than that of Iran.

They wouldn’t. It was an example. A hypothetical scenario to illustrate a point.

The funny thing that UK navy is both smaller AND less capable compared to Russian surfice navy, and I’d imagine that India would be leasing used British subs if they were so good. 😂

https://twitter.com/Enopoletus/status/1376753102276157441

The RN surface fleet is smaller yes but on what basis are you assuming them to be less capable ?

As for leasing nuclear subs..well back in the early 2000s we only had the Russian option.Akula 2 is a great sub to learn and base our first nuclear submarine on.

Also the Akula 2 we have in our Navy was brand new handed over to us immediately after sea trials.

So money well spent.

As far as one can determine from publicly available information Astute class is acoustically comparable to the Virginia class which makes them superior to Yasen.Historically Russian subs have been faster,better armed and can dive deeper due to double hull design but US/British subs have been quieter.

Going forward our S5 SSBN which is a full size SSBN (under construction)unlike the presently deployed Arihant class which can carry only 4 SLBMs looks like a cross between the vanguard class sub and a Delta 4.So one wonders.

https://idrw.org/india-next-generation-s5-ballistic-missile-submarine-leaked/

Iran would easily beat Saudis but could not hold off Turkey. Most of the countries above Turkey would not actually be able fight Turkey, the list gives too much emphasis on military spending. None of the European countries could fight Turkey alone and win. In truth only the US has capacity to go to war with any country. Others could fight within their periphery.

As for China vs. India, the Chinese would eat Indians for breakfast. I mean it would be so one sided, and it has little to do with manufacturing arms. I suspect even Iran could hold off India.

Saudi Arabia wishes it didn’t have to spend so much on arms and stay high on these lists. But they have to pay tributes if they want to continue their shitty little monarchy. They just have a ton of weapons that they cannot use. Their capability is obvious in Yemen.

India isn’t a country. Not a nation. It is a subcontinent of dozens of states and ethnic groups glued together forcibly first by the Turks, then by the British. They cannot fight effectively for that reason. Not that they had been a warrior people historically. If they tried to fight China it would be a disaster. I doubt that they could even win against Pakistan or Iran. I think it would be a stalemate. They just don’t have the martial culture.

Saudi Arabia is a military non-entity with some overpriced American junk, that they don’t know how to use effectively. I would rank it below the Ukraine.

😂😂😂😂

Britain is run by an “intelligentsia” who despise their own country, so it’s only logical that it would have a hugely degraded military because what role does it play any more other than to a few old style Tories who are dying out any way?

They also never meet their recruitment targets, in fact they fall widely short of them every year, but it’s obvious why. A very large percentage of young people in the UK are immigrants, maybe majority immigrant in their target age group, who have no sentimental attachment to the UK. Why would they want to fight for this country? Most of them despise it from a historical perspective.

As for the few remaining native British youth, why would they want to join the military either when they’re constantly told that Britain is an evil, oppressive country and that the military is a tool of oppression of non-whites?

Frankly considering all the negative propaganda against Britain and its history it amazes me that this country still has a military at all, and hasn’t done an Iceland and just abolished it entirely because frankly I can’t see who would want anything to do with it any more, native or immigrant.

The other issue is that the British military is starting to develop a bad rep for bullying and brutality, like the Russian military used to have.

The recent effective entrance of Iran into the Sinosphere

The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.

“Uyghur Genocide”

[MORE]

The Indian armed forces are vastly over-rated by Karlin here, I would agree with that, but they are certainly not below Iran. It would be another story if Iran was not under crushing sanctions, but for the time…

Pakistan is run by the military more or less, so they naturally have a much greater focus on their armed forces and their procurement procedures are far superior to India’s, which cannot even manage to get a deal signed with Russia to locally produce the AK-203.

It will probably take a crushing military defeat at the hands of China to jolt politicians into action. The 2019 skirmishes in Kashmir were hugely embarrassing for India and made it quite clear how outdated it’s air force was, as if the periodic crashes of the MiG-21 were not indication enough.

Hindus don’t, but neither do you.

Great post, AK.

Now, if Smoothie would just come in and tell us how you got everything wrong it would be double great post.

I think you’ll see Asia as a while turn away from the west

After all the sacrifices that we have made for Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam?

No way, we are BFFs .

Maybe a dashboard of metrics rather than a single figure? And not sure about wether militaries that are primarily geared towards expeditionary capabilities like the US and UK should be placed in the group as militaries whose purpose is home defence like Colombia or Chile. And should militaries that are designed primarily for counterinsurgency, like Colombia or Mexico, be placed in the same category as militaries that are geared for conventional defence, like Chile or Brazil? Also as 1940 and Arab Israeli war shows, military doctrine could actually be the deciding factor in a conflict rather than platforms. Not sure how you can account for that in a single metric.

I get the impression that Pakistanis are generally more aggressive and warlike than Indians, mainly because they seem to be racially more Indo-Aryan and Central Asian, races that seem to be more warlike than the more Dravidian and to a lesser extent East Asian influenced Indians.

Islam is also arguably a more aggressive and martial ideology than Hinduism which adds to this.

military doctrine could actually be the deciding factor in a conflict rather than platforms

So, you are saying that we are screwed no matter what the numbers say?

Smoothie is too busy calculating the volume of the n-sphere to proceed.

Pakistan also has the unique advantage of having everyone train them, so essentially they get a substantial surplus in terms of military capability with officers trained in realistic combat scenarios.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pakistan/u-s-to-resume-military-training-program-for-pakistan-state-department-idUSKBN1YO03S

I wonder if there’s somewhere that we can find general shot accuracy of soldiers from various militaries, which might be a decent proxy for overall training.

Unironic usage of the term “SJW” in 2021 lol

This isn’t 2015. No one cares about the blue haired kids on campuses anymore. There are more pressing issues at hand than some stupid culture war against phantom “SJW”s.

Including Saudi Arabia, Singapore and UAE in that list is hilarious.

Agree. Since the 1960s, the 14th Amendment in particular, has become essentially a new wokeist Constitution imposed by the judiciary.

The other thing that has happened since the Civil War is that the Federal government, which formerly had no Constitutional basis for a standing army nor legal grounds for deploying such an army within the United States, has not only created such a standing army but has also written special “Civil Rights” carve-outs into law allowing it deploy hostilely into domestic States without permission of that State. And the Federal government has used this power repeatedly, but only against the right.

This war is going to be fought with unconventional electronic weapons, drones, and special forces.

US Special Forces will be pregnant, women with dicks and have an IQ of 70.

No one cares about the blue haired kids on campuses anymore.

Correct, now they’re not just on campuses, now they’re in the Pentagon and White House, Whitehall and Sandhurst.

And like a King anti-Midas, everything they touch turns to sh*t.

It depends on things like strategic depth? Which France did not have in 1940?

https://twitter.com/ArmyDcfa/status/1376435315657818113?s=20

>Sandhurst

How much latent war potential exists in the commercial air fleets of different countries? Figure: transporting soldiers, being converted to planes for paratroopers, or bombers, machine gun platforms, drone droppers.

There were several civilian planes that were used by different militaries.

Arabs are notoriously terrible soldiers. Hezbollah and the Jordanian Army seem to be exceptions to that rule.

The truth is that SJWs are easy to control because they are stupid and dysfunctional, whereas the Biden and Hillary types (neocons) are much more dangerous.

https://defence-blog.com/news/azerbaijani-military-turns-soviet-biplane-aircraft-into-drones.html

Poor museum pieces.

I’m not sure if Great Power Wars will rely on repurposed civilian craft, although they may serve a purpose on the backline for transport.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AVIC_AG600

Attempting to use the stupid has its downsides.

http://www.vvaw.org/veteran/article/?id=3211&print=yes

A low-IQ soldier played a deadly joke for two days pulling the pin of a hand grenade and then rolling it toward his mates. Nothing happened since he had disabled it pulling out the detonator cylinder. His mates beat him each time for scaring them finally yelling at him: “Never again, Bozo!” The third day they muttered and kept eating ignoring him as they wouldn’t fall for the same lame gag. When he did the same trick, this time he had forgotten to disable it. The grenade exploded killing two soldiers and wounding several others. Rather than send him to the States to try him for manslaughter, they made him perform risks like walking point exposing him to booby-traps, detonating a landmine, or sniper bait.

https://medium.com/@LivingHistory/project-100-000-the-mentally-disabled-men-who-fought-in-vietnam-1cbe145cc126

Increased utilization of dimwits is likely even more punished in the high technology and complex battlefield of tomorrow.

New Standards soldiers weren’t just a danger to themselves. Having soldiers who could not understand even basic commands posed a danger to everyone in their vicinity. A popular infantry officer was killed by his own New Standards soldier on accident. The soldier was supposed to let him into their patrol base after he gave the password, but the soldier got confused and shot his own platoon leader. Another mentally disabled recruit couldn’t figure out the safety on his M16. One day on patrol he negligently discharged and shot another soldier in the leg. He would later die of shock.

That seems to indicate that the Battle of France would have been a lot harder than it did in OTL? If you add the score of France and Britain vs. Germany. Keeping in mind that France and Britain can basically bring every man they can get across to the Franco Belgian region, while Germany can not divert its entire army to the West. I recall that a lot of military people rated France as having the strongest army in Europe in 1940.

I was thinking of a very big bush war, like Nigeria 2100. Maybe, paired with some sort of logistical/industrial collapse. Perhaps, civilian craft would be more fuel efficient, in some instances. Outlandish scenario, for sure, but I’m skeptical of the potentiality for a great power war because of nukes. Also, other reasons, like economic fallout, and political risks.

We did a pretty good job of avoiding one after WW2. What was the closest thing? Maybe, Chinese troops coming over the Yalu, but that was years before they had nukes, and when they were under a Russian shield.

France 0.00

Also even with the losses at Pearl Harbor, the US Navy arguably still had a counteroffensive capability equal to that of the IJN, and 90 percent of Japan’s army was in the Asian mainland, leaving only some divisions for the Centrifugal offensive. In defence of the Breda plan, if the Allies wanted to keep Belgium, then Antwerp and the area around it must be kept open.

Japan might, but they’re less interested in serving American influence than replacing American influence in Asia.

Prior 1940, Gamelin was actually very well regarded even by the Germans. By the time of Okinawa, the Japanese fleet was basically moribund, even even by the time of Iow Jima.

Japan vs China Anti Ship Missile Ranges.

See if you can guess which one is which.

A literal pissing contest.

What is funny about the UAE is that it has a number of foreign bases.

Imagine if Hungary had foreign bases, and then imagine if Hungary’s national IQ were 1 SD lower.

I’m surprised at the value of 4.04 for a 1945 Germany with severely degraded armor, airforce, and navy and the remnants of the Wehrmacht having to be supplemented by old men and untrained teenage boys. The manner in which Allied forces were plowing through Germany at that stage suggested that they were no longer remotely close to the USSR’s 4.48.

Due to the threat of Chinese anti-ship missiles, submarines and frigates, the US navy will have remain at least 500 km or so away from Taiwan. The F/A 18 only has a combat range of 700 km and sortie rates are low for carrier based aircraft to begin with.

Japan would be a deadly foe however. It has a phenomenal fleet and a capable air force.

This is a very interesting question: the two most dangerous axis militaries of WWII were the Germans and the Japs. To what extent has the army of each retained or lost its abilities by this point?
I hear some sad stuff about the Kraut ability to get their tanks to start up during unexpected drills, but how goes it with the Japs? Anyone in the know?

It is provided you can get legit IQ scores outside the OECD.And then the IQ of the communities that make up the bulk of the armed forces

I suspect India will be the most complicated country among the major powers to account for..

Without boring you with details of exactly how

Indian Navy Officer IQ > IAF Officer IQ > > Indian Army Officer IQ.

This results in cartoonish facts on the ground of India being able to successfully design and build its own Aircraft Carrier,Nuclear Submarines, Destroyers,Frigates,ICBM/SLBM, Helicopters ,GPS Navigation Satellites and light fighter planes but not relatively much simpler things like Tanks,Rifles and Artillery.

I read somewhere that the reason why the West did not develop supersonic SSMs is the belief that supersonic SSMs are less maneuverable than subsonic SSMs, thus negating their speed advantage. If you believe that the Americans are pozzed, therefore they can not reason properly, you can ask the French. Chinese troops by the summer of 1945 were actually quite effective against the Japanese, which had zero power projection or ability to maneuver or supply its armies by this time so to speak.

Has anybody heard of the Free French Forces per chance?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_France#Campaigns_in_France_and_Germany_1944%E2%80%931945

Campaigns in France and Germany 1944–1945
Main articles: Allied advance from Paris to the Rhine and Western Allied invasion of Germany
By September 1944, the Free French forces stood at 560,000 (including 176,500 White French from North Africa, 63,000 metropolitan French, 233,000 Maghrebis and 80,000 from Black Africa).[92][93] The GPRF set about raising new troops to participate in the advance to the Rhine and the invasion of Germany, using the FFI as military cadres and manpower pools of experienced fighters to allow a very large and rapid expansion of the French Liberation Army. It was well equipped and well supplied despite the economic disruption brought by the occupation thanks to Lend-Lease, and their number rose to 1 million by the end of the year. French forces were fighting in Alsace-Lorraine, the Alps, and besieging the heavily fortified French Atlantic coast submarine bases that remained Hitler-mandated stay-behind “fortresses” in ports along the Atlantic coast like La Rochelle and Saint-Nazaire until the German capitulation in May 1945.

Also in September 1944, the Allies having outrun their logistic tail (the “Red Ball Express”), the front stabilised along Belgium’s northern and eastern borders and in Lorraine. From then on it moved at a slower pace, first to the Siegfried Line and then in the early months of 1945 to the Rhine in increments. For instance, the Ist Corps seized the Belfort Gap in a coup de main offensive in November 1944, their German opponents believing they had entrenched for the winter.

A plaque commemorating the Oath of Kufra in near the cathedral of Strasbourg
The French 2nd Armoured Division, tip of the spear of the Free French forces that had participated in the Normandy Campaign and liberated Paris, went on to liberate Strasbourg on 23 November 1944, thus fulfilling the Oath of Kufra made by its commanding officer General Leclerc almost four years earlier. The unit under his command, barely above company size when it had captured the Italian fort, had grown into a full-strength armoured division.

The spearhead of the Free French First Army that had landed in Provence was the Ist Corps. Its leading unit, the French 1st Armoured Division, was the first Western Allied unit to reach the Rhône (25 August 1944), the Rhine (19 November 1944) and the Danube (21 April 1945). On 22 April 1945, it captured Sigmaringen in Baden-Württemberg, where the last Vichy regime exiles, including Marshal Pétain, were hosted by the Germans in one of the ancestral castles of the Hohenzollern dynasty.

They participated in stopping Operation Nordwind, the very last German major offensive on the western front in January 1945, and in collapsing the Colmar Pocket in January–February 1945, capturing and destroying most of the German XIXth Army. Operations by the First Army in April 1945 encircled and captured the German XVIII SS Corps in the Black Forest, and cleared and occupied south-western Germany. At the end of the war, the motto of the French First Army was Rhin et Danube, referring to the two great German rivers that it had reached and crossed during its combat operations.

In May 1945, by the end of the war in Europe, the Free French forces comprised 1,300,000 personnel, and included around forty divisions making it the fourth largest Allied army in Europe behind the Soviet Union, the US and Britain.[94] The GPRF sent an expeditionary force to the Pacific to retake French Indochina from the Japanese, but Japan surrendered before they could arrive in theatre.

At that time, General Alphonse Juin was the chief of staff of the French army, but it was General François Sevez who represented France at Reims on 7 May, while General Jean de Lattre de Tassigny led the French delegation at Berlin on V-E day, as he was the commander of the French First Army. At the Yalta Conference, Germany had been divided into Soviet, American and British occupation zones, but France was then given an occupation zone in Germany, as well as in Austria and in the city of Berlin. It was not only the role that France played in the war which was recognised, but its important strategic position and significance in the Cold War as a major democratic, capitalist nation of Western Europe in holding back the influence of communism on the continent.

Approximately 58,000 men were killed fighting in the Free French forces between 1940 and 1945.[95]

And de Tassigny was as good as any Allied general in Europe during the 1944-1945 period, plus any analysis of nation strenghts would have to be granular in nature, and would have to take into account the relative strenghts of each branch of the armed forces by country, or even down to the unit level (maybe too much work?) per theather, and per sector of the theater. And by January of 1945 after the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans were basically moribund anyway.

China is now at 57%, but it has a bigger GDP (PPP) than the US (it produces its own weapons, so yes, GDP (PPP) is what counts here), a much faster rate of growth, and on top of that its military spending is around 1.9% or almost twice less than the US at 3.4%, i.e. much more room for more catch-up spending (should it choose to pursue that path) that was feasible for the USSR.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CTA1195-1.html

Not sure how it relates to American military readiness, but, speaking personally, I’ve never heard more ridiculous appeals to American unity and the American identity (“We are all Americans”) than in the past few months. (the MAGA rally brought some of this out in the Left as a counter-reaction) It has really become farcical.

Seriously, you will get people with Ibram X. Kendi on their shelf, saying this shit. And I don’t just mean blacks, or white libs, I mean indios, who will say they don’t like BLM (I wonder why!), but call Trump a fascist, and say that they face racism every day.

I mentioned this before, but tens of thousands of national guard troops were kept out of Vietnam in order to have some insurance against blacks, and that was over 50 years ago.

Noo,

it’s just that Navy Officers being gay have no need of French or Russian prostitutes.

I wonder what the ethnic composition of India’s special forces are…

The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that the U.S. would go head-to-head with Chinese forces on Chinese turf. None of the U.S. plans are written this way.

If there are hostilities, U.S. strategic forces will assume position in the Southern Indian Ocean. Smaller vessels will operate further North providing a screen. PRC hydrocarbon imports from the Persian Gulf will be reduced to near zero.

China can over fly Pakistan, stretching bomber operations, in an attempt to achieve a viable position on U.S. strategic forces. However, they stand a good chance of being shot down before they can launch. Even if they do release a few missiles, there will be multiple opportunities to intercept them before they reach their targets.

How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing? Economic collapse and civil war are near inevitable outcomes.

PEACE 😇

More data that must be brought to Karlin’s attention: the US is burried under a mountain of debt.

Under current law, US military spending must drop from 3,4 % today to nearly 2.8 % of GDP by 2031, as an attempt to stop the growing debt from burrying the US. Civilian spending must drop by similar amounts too.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-03/56977-LTBO-2021.pdf

Additionally, the US faces a fiscal gap of 3,6 % of GDP by 2025 and 4,4 % of GDP by 2030 (the amount of cuts needed to stop federal debt from growing and stabilise it at one)

http://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-2020-long-term-budget-outlook

which means that the US will have to cut spending further. The spending cuts will be smaller if it starts in 2025 and higher if it starts by 2030.

So you are looking at US military budget at an all time low of around 2,5 % of GDP by 2030.

This assertion is also backed from the Trump plan for cutting the US deficit from 2020, which assumed US defense spending at 2,5 % by 2030. And it is well known that the Trump admin was much more supportive of higher military spending compared to the Biden Admin.

So chinese military budget must reach US military budget in MER terms by 2035, while being significantly higher in PPP terms by 2035.

And this is after the addition of two negative cultural modifiers to Saudi Arabia (“clannishness” and “south”).

Clannishness is a genetic modifier as well (high inbreeding in muslim populations, leading to certain types of behaviors in muslim populations).

If there are hostilities, U.S. strategic forces will assume position in the Southern Indian Ocean.

How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing?

China’s dependence on crude oil imports has been growing in recent years and the world’s top oil importer covered 73.4 percent of its oil demand with imported oil in the first half of 2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_petroleum_reserve_(China)

I wonder how many Saudis could parallel park a car, let alone win a fight in the air.

They have lots of Tibetans, no joke…

And there is something much more significant: China is becoming the world’s biggest oil refiner.

Which means that as the rest of the world and especially the West is shutting down refineries, it is becoming dependent on refined petroleum products from China.

Imagine that: China is dependent on imporitng oil yet it made much of the world dependent on oil products refined in China.

An oil exporter such as Australia has become dependent on refined oil products made in China due to its own deindustrialisation.

Cheap Chinese petroleum drives refineries out of Australia

BP and ExxonMobil closures sound alarm for energy security

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Cheap-Chinese-petroleum-drives-refineries-out-of-Australia

https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-lubes/china-set-to-eclipse-america-as-worlds-biggest-oil-refiner/79348304

They are stupid and dysfunctional, and they are easy to control … by Twitter, … by their commanding officers not so much.

Never really thought of it before, but I suppose Tibetan exiles would come in handy for high altitude deployments.

20%×73%×70% = 10%

They might succeed in reducing China’s total energy supply by approximately 10% give or take, in the long run. But only after she has depleted her Strategic Petroleum Reserves, by which time she most likely will have adapted and increased production of alternative energy sources. Taiwan will not last that long.

The Confederacy only happened because States were genuinely…well, entities at the time

Agree with this, but another point that people often seem to miss: the US Army had 16,000 men in 1860. Three years later the Confederate Army, at its peak, had 460,000 men (the Union ended up with about a million). Even if we go with the 13 theoretical Confederate states (as opposed to 11 actual), that translates to 35,000 men per Confederate state. Meaning that the average Confederate state was able to muster roughly double the manpower of the entire peacetime US Army.

In determining the course and ultimate outcome of the Civil War, the peacetime US army might as well have not existed. Little would have changed. This bought the Confederates time to build armies and institutions, which secessionists desperately need wherever they hope to put up a real fight. This prevents the central government from basically arresting the secessionist leaders as a police action (a la Catalonia 2014), and instead forces the central government to *invade*, which is quite a different prospect.

The modern US cannot dissolve unless the armed forces either evaporate or stand down and allow it. The US military has historically been one of the most cohesive elements of American society, and it wants the country to remain intact. Maybe the rise of Wokeness in the military will cause massive divisions that break this trend, but I wouldn’t count on it, at least not anytime soon.

The US megacorps (and their megabucks), by the way, also want the country to remain intact. If you think the corporate class hated Brexit, their fear and distaste for US secession or national dissolution is 1000x that, with the difference that normies are also against it, can’t really conceive of or even properly imagine it.

How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing?

The Elite CCP is keeping the people of China down from an increasingly pent-up desire to invade Taiwan.

I would recommend this video on this subject..

That seems to indicate that the Battle of France would have been a lot harder than it did in OTL?

It does seem that way. But then, that was also the judgement of just about everyone on the scene at the time: that France was a peer military to Germany. You could say that those judgments (and Karlin’s CMP) were not wrong, it’s just that Germany’s rapid victory over France in 1940 was something of a coup against reality (perhaps abetted by contemporary French military incompetence). Your CMP matters less if you use it wrong.

Keeping in mind that France and Britain can basically bring every man they can get across to the Franco Belgian region, while Germany can not divert its entire army to the West.

Au contraire, France and even more so Britain had huge colonial empires to police. Germany, having been deprived of it’s meager overseas colonies after WWI, didn’t have this handicap. I forget the figures exactly, but I think only about half of France’s army was available to defend the northern frontier. And the British Expeditionary Force was only about a tenth the size of the French force. We hear about the BEF a lot in the Anglosphere for obvious reasons, but it was not so significant militarily.

By contrast, Germany could concentrate most of its military into this offensive. The invasion of Poland (with the Non-Aggression-Pacted USSR) was already won, so Germany only needed to leave a few second-rate garrison/pacification troops in the east.

Also, it’s often forgotten today, that Italy invaded France from the southeast at the same time.

An oil blockade on China

Which will fuck up the world refined petroleum products market which was captured by China and will leave many countries with refined petroleum products shortages, including US allies and even the US to extent. The West is shutting down oil refineries, which will make an oil embargo on the world’s largest oil refiner even more unfeasible in the future.

So China is wisely making itself an indispensable nation in oil refinery.

Moreover, Russia can supply China with all the resources it needs. Enough said.

France had more tanks and better tanks than Germany, which had more aircraft than Britain and France in France and Belgium.

No way, we are BFFs .

The US’ actions during the Scarborough Shoals dispute really damaged our reputation in that region:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal#Sovereignty_dispute

Yes, the major Pakistani ethnic groups are Punjabi, Pathan (Pashtun) and Baloch, all of which were designated as “martial races” by the British. There is also a feeling embedded within Pakistani society that they are heirs to the various Muslim conquerors* which united much of the subcontinent for centuries. This is ironic as the Indus Valley Civilization (from which “India” derives its name) was mainly located in Pakistan and North-West India and was truly indigenous, but since this was a Buddhist and Pagan civilisation, the Pakistani educational apparatus places little to no importance on this and Pakistani history begins in the 7th Century when General Muhammad bin Quasim led his troops into Sindh.

However, there is also a lot of bravado involved, the saying used to be that “1 Pakistani Muslim is equal to 10 Indian Hindus”, but the wars and conflicts fought between India and Pakistan in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999 proved otherwise, hence today Pakistan spends a lot of money on its military, maintaining an armed force around half the size of India’s despite being only one-seventh as populated, and spending far more on defence as a percentage of GDP than India does.

* – Kabul objects to Pakistani missile names

Pakistan will not rename missiles

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France

Numbers of Allied and German troops were equal, the French had a lot more tanks and more artillery, the Germans had a lot more planes. The French tanks getting to Bulson ridge a few minutes sooner could have saved the whole thing.

The Battle of France strikes me as a huge problem in any sort of analysis like this. Perhaps CMP ought to be thought of more like a handicap in a game of chess. CMP tells you how good your pieces are, but its ability is limited to indicate how well you’ll use them, even if it tries to factor in things like certain countries tending to have better doctrine. Not to mention, unlike chess, how big a factor luck can be, or the role of chaos: there are mechanisms in war whereby a single minor tactical mistake can cascade into national collapse. “All for the want of a nail.”

Even accounting for Germany’s better doctrine and all-around military effectiveness, it very easily could have used its pieces more poorly than it did. There were major revisions to its plans for invading France up to a few months before the invasion commenced, and the German generals themselves were surprised how well things went. Any sort of error there could have led to a war that looked more like the war the Anglo-French were expecting to fight, a slugfest in which CMP is all that matters.

It’s quite interesting–do you think that Russia could have ever been brought into the Western bloc, Anatoly?

I’m not Anatoly, but will take a stab at it: yes. Aside from the war on terror, Bush’s biggest failing was not securing a deal with Russia. There was a ton to be gained on both sides, as Russia was also struggling with Islamic terrorism during that time. An agreement where Russia and US shared intelligence on terrorists, perhaps even with some sharing of bases would have made a ton of sense. I waited and waited, sure that something was brewing in the background.

Then in circa 2006 there was a WSJ op-ed by a Russian elder statesman. I forget the name, but it was someone I recognized. He said he was baffled that the US was prosecuting a war on terror without trying to involve Russia. He saw several ways the two countries should be working together, but someone from the US needed to make the case. Russia was waiting, but the window was closing. It looks like Bush was still fighting the cold war.

There was our chance to forge close ties with Russia, and declare that in the 21st century we had a common enemy. Heck, we probably could have gotten China and India involved as well. Muslim terrorists have managed to piss off a lot of people. Sadly, it was not to be.

If I sound upset, it was because this line of reasoning occurred to me within ~60 seconds of people saying Iraq was going to be another Vietnam. It seemed obvious that we wouldn’t be fighting another superpower in a proxy war, and could even get the regional powers on our side.

I found it surprising that Saudi Arabia is significantly ahead of Israel on this ranking.

LMAO at France in 1945.

So, France and Britain combined in 1940 were roughly an even match for Germany during this time?

BTW, wouldn’t the Free French military have had *some* power in 1945?

Forgot what year that was. But there was a lot of ill will generated in the Western media by the jailing of Khordokovsky and the takeover of Yukos by Putin cronies, plus the takeover of NTV and Echo of Moscow. Prior to that opinions on Russia were largely neutral to sometimes the butt of jokes, to a sense of pity over the bad 90s for Russia. Other than that, the biggest foreign policy issue in the early to mid-2000s was Russian opposition to American plans for missile defense, which also rubbed Americans the wrong way.

Would you prefer “South in the Indian Ocean” rather than “Southern Indian Ocean”. Your nitpicking is a sign of weakness. It is an open confession to the non-viability of your position.

China would also have difficulty importing coal because the U.S. is the #1 exporter to China. Australia #2 would also be unavailable. As an actual Indian Ocean positioning, unlike your silly chart point, would cover Australia.

Your last chart is also a confession to my position:
• 70% of the sources have to transit the Indian Ocean.
• 15% from a Russia? How much of that passes through targetable railways and pipelines?
• 2% from Venezuela? They might try to break the blockade, however they ate not a sophisticated operation and could likely be stoped by basic forces.
• 3%” from Asia. This is a potential weak point. If a Malaysia and Indonesia cooperate small ships could sneak through from these sources.

If CCP Elite aggression starts a war. They would likely succeed in taking Taiwan. Then the PRC economy would collapse. Chinese Workers vs. CCP Elites. I’d put money on the Workers.

Your charts show PRC hydrocarbon imports would be “near zero” or “almost zero”. No blockade is ever perfect. Thank you for your help supporting my argument.

PEACE 😇

The Saudi influence, fueled by oil money, can be seen in Russia as well. In the past 50 years, Riyadh has invested at least 76 billion euros ($86 billion) in advancing it’s reputation and interests, throughout the world. Are you surprised about these findings? Would it be so hard to imagine some of that money finding its way into a certain someones Patreon account.

There have always been rumors that AK has links to the Dark Cardinal of the Kremlin. But perhaps the truth is more frightening and his backer is Abu Rasasa instead.

USA had a supply base(logistic hub or something?) or two in Russia, supplying US forces in Afghanistan, but they were closed couple years ago.

I guess if its bean counting hard weapon system assets…..

Does Saudi Arabia deserve to be number 8? Does it count when foreign mercenaries man advanced weapon systems for the dumb-dumb kingdom? Or when ABM systems can’t stop drones from the poorest Arab nation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi/yemens-houthis-warn-of-stronger-attacks-after-drone-strikes-on-saudi-arabia-idUSKBN2BI184

Israel could demolish Saudi Arabia in number of assets alone. Don’t assume because both countries buy F-16s that they are the same variants. You can guess which side gets the full-stock models and which side gets the export variant.

Even if you factor population willingness for war… Gulf arabs are the most cowardly of the bunch. Did you get a cheque from the Saudi embassy in Moscow ir something?

One never knows. It would be silly to think that the US is protesting against India’s purchase of Russian S-400 (and other Russian equipment) only for pure commercial issues…..

A more granular and detailed CMP with multiple indicators or dashboards may be better (if that is not too much to do).

15% from a Russia? How much of that passes through targetable railways and pipelines?

Are you going to bomb Russian trains now? Do you want to consider the viability of a blockade that damages or destroys previously unaligned vessels and citizens? Do you consider the survival of enemy aircraft in China’s air defense zone to be high?

Do you know what happened with the Lusitania and the consequences of it?

No blockade is viable(sustaining one on Iran & North Korea is difficult enough). I’ll leave you to your ignorance of the “Chinese worker”; rest assured, it is the elite monied factions that are more pro-Western. Whatever the concerns of the CCP, it won’t be of the workers.

And for $39.99/month, I’m sure that might be possible.

https://www.patreon.com/akarlin

I mean for example, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines may see no point in having a blue water navy, and just a navy good enough to secure its claims in the Spratly’s, and that suits them just fine. They may not see that point for tanker aircraft like 767s either. Countries like Colombia with COIN issues may only have a few conventional warplanes, with the bulk of their assets geared for COIN operations, in fact Mexico does not have main battle tanks or fighter jets. And Central American countries have defence budgets running in the 0.2 to 0.3 percent of GDP range, which is enough for maintaining internal security.

Gurkha’s are well known: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurkha

And do you think that the US carrier groups and planes do not need oil? Or US allies in the region are not relying on oil as well? And that China cannot respond militarily against a blockade?

It is well known that the moment the shooting starts, one can toss all the plans to the garbage bin…

BB claimed that only 6% of China’s coal was imported, how ever that claim has mysteriously vanished.

Is that why China had massive rolling blackouts after cutting off Australian imports? (1)

Millions of Chinese are suffering severe power supply problems, brownouts and blackouts. According to media reports the problems have been caused by fuel shortages, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s embargo of Australian coal imports.

Beijing’s trade war with Australia spectacularly backfires as China is plagued by electricity woes plunging millions into darkness – after it refused delivery of $1billion of Aussie coal

• Beijing blacklisted imports of Australian coal as part of the trade war last month
• Some 80 ships carrying $1.1b worth of coal are sitting off the Australian coast
• Coal prices have skyrocketed in China as domestic supply struggles to keep up
• Now provincial governments are imposing restrictions on electricity usage
• There are power outages and limits of heating and AC use during the cold winter

Physical evidence indicates that that the 6% number is an Elite CCP party lie. Keep repeating party fiction though, if it makes you happy.

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/18/china-suffering-mass-blackouts-following-aussie-coal-embargo/

And do you think that the US carrier groups and planes do not need oil? Or US allies in the region are not relying on oil as well?

Tankers use unique paint schemes to assist with identification. Allied transports would be allowed through while enemy vessels would be intercepted.

China cannot respond militarily against a blockade?

How would China respond? Be specific.

The PRC has few resources available for long range use, and no ports on the Indian Ocean.

It is well known that the moment the shooting starts, one can toss all the plans to the garbage bin…

So Blinky Bill’s plan for Chinese defense needs to be thrown in the garbage bin. I concur. Please tell him.

PEACE 😇

China would also have difficulty importing coal because the U.S. is the #1 exporter to China. Australia #2 would also be unavailable.

China imports 6% of its Coal consumption. China is also the world tenth largest coal expoter. Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Philippines are also top 15 exporters. North Korea also has large reserves of coal that remain untapped for obvious reasons. You really need to check out how big Chinese and Russian coal reserves are. 😂😂😂😂

How much of that passes through targetable railways and pipelines?

They wouldn’t dare, there would be immediate retaliation/escalation.

Your charts show PRC hydrocarbon imports would be “near zero” or “almost zero”. No blockade is ever perfect

Non sequitur.

You can’t Naval Blockade pipelines, Russian and Central Asian pipelines are particularly hard to Naval Blockade 😂😂😂😂. Even when you try it on the High Seas you won’t get all of the oil it’s impossible. The Chinese will also start to deplete there own fields at a faster rate, partially counteracting the blockade.

I’m pretty sure that could keep it up for years if not for decades.

I’m sure you’ve also heard of Electric Cars and High Speed Rail, all petroleum free. 😂😂😂😂.

The question was about the ethnic composition of India’s special forces, there are elite Gurkha regiments in Indian Army, but I don’t know if there are Gurkhas serving in spec ops.

U.S. is the #1 coal exporter to China.

Physical evidence indicates that this number is a Hasbara lie.

Is that why China had massive rolling blackouts after cutting off Australian imports?

I realized that when an MIT-trained Chinese-American engineer referred to Taiwan as “that renegade province”.

what happened with the Lusitania and the consequences of it?

Lusitania sunk May 7, 1915.
US declared war April 6, 1917.

A rational argument can be made that the sinking of the Lusitania delayed US entry into the war, by getting Germans to change tactics for a while and restrict their attacks. Of course, Pre-WWI America was a very different place. The state department fit into one modestly-sized building. Likely, one would not get a similar reaction now, even in Russia.

The thing about any possible Taiwan conflict is that, it starts from a low desire to go to war. Once troops have been landed – possible before Congress even meets if paratroopers are used – that becomes a lot lower. Next stage is after Taiwanese forces have surrendered – after that, I would suppose it drops to zero.

The idea that China would ground to a halt without Western coal is an absolute joke.

Impressive effort& post. Seems pretty much plausible.

Have you considered using HDI (or some variation of it) instead of IQ for the sake of your CMP project being more “presentable”?

By any chance, are Greeks, Egyptians and Algerians close to the top 30 in the current revision? And how the first two compare to Turkey?

All have pretty large, competent and well equipped forces.

You think that infrastructure can move out of the way if attacked?

Dancing Bridges 😂😂😂

DODGING PIPELINES 😖🤓😖🤓😖

Your proposal for physically evasive infrastructure is so bizarre, I award you the prestigious Godzilla Face palm. Come back when you can be serious. Right now you are wasting everyone’s time.

PEACE 😇

I have already noticed that the Admiral here at Unz is the smartest.

I realized that when an MIT-trained Chinese-American engineer referred to Taiwan as “that renegade province”.

Was his name Qian Xuesen?

[MORE]

The missile defense was something the Russians wanted to get involved themselves, but the Americans kept rejecting their proposals. This led to increasing Russian frustration and opposition to the whole thing. Eventually the Americans came out around 2006 or 2007 that they wanted Georgia and Ukraine in NATO.

There was already a history of NATO expansion despite increasing Russian opposition, and in 1999 the Yugoslav bombings and then in 2007 the Kosovo Declaration of Independence recognized by most major western powers. The loud western support for the Ukrainian Orange Revolution wasn’t popular in Moscow either.

So basically the Russians were not involved in the war on terror, they were left out of the missile defense increasing their suspicions, and then there was a history of American efforts to include formerly Russian clients in the American sphere of interest, including a literal war of aggression. Of course they became suspicious and started to oppose any American initiatives which could be used against them.

You think that infrastructure can move out of the way if attacked?

No, I believe in Newton’s third law of motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

That’s why no such infrastructure shall be targeted, this isn’t Palestine and Israel we’re talking about. Retaliation is guaranteed.

Numbers of Allied and German troops were equal

True, but they weren’t equally deployed.

From that wiki article:

Germany had mobilised 4,200,000 men of the Heer (German Army) …. When consideration is made for those in Poland, Denmark and Norway, the Army had 3,000,000 men available for the offensive on 10 May 1940.

…

France mobilised about one-third of the male population…, bringing the strength of its armed forces to 5,000,000. Only 2,240,000 of these served in army units in the north.

So 4.2m German soldiers vs. 5.0m French soldiers, but 3.0m Germans vs. 2.2m French in the theater of battle. = 71% German concentration vs. 44% French concentration.

Economic collapse and civil war are near inevitable outcomes.

Long before that happens China will start sending Nuclear Scientist to Iran, to keep a vigilant eye on the Iranian Nuclear Program, to make sure their following the guidelines about Enrichment. And in a great stroke of luck, the Naval Blockade of China will be called off, just like that. 😉

The Chinese just have to move out of the way, dance and dodge those bullets. 😂😂😂😂

and then there was a history of American efforts to include formerly Russian clients in the American sphere of interest

I think this is a big one. In order to get German reunification and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Europe, the US made diplomatic commitments not to expand NATO eastward. It only took a few years for NATO to break that commitment in spades. (The US foreign policy establishment has tried to retcon this out of existence by saying “we never promised!”, meaning, I guess, there wasn’t a formal treaty, which is true, but beside the point.)

Ironically, now the biggest threat to NATO is probably from the domestic US national populist/Trumpist constituency, who don’t see why they are signed up for nuclear war to protect Northern Macedonia.

Long before that happens China will start sending Nuclear Scientist to Iran,

Just to bring you up to date on current affairs.

Israel has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Khameni from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Which is 100% sensible as deranged Iranian aggression is an existential threat to survival.

So your proposed retaliation is — “China will knowingly join the LOSING side of a nuclear war in the Middle East.” 🙄😱💀

I need to look for options more dramatic than the Godzilla Face Palm. Your words may be the stupidest thing uttered in the past hundred years.

PEACE 😇

Yeah, I think this is the real problem with all of these single-number metrics, though CMP is probably the best of them: there are relatively formidable militaries that are not projectable, and relatively projectable militaries that are not formidable. Even among “projectable” militaries, that really means “projectile into an adjacent country or the littoral”.

Heck, even the vaunted US military hasn’t been able to dislodge a bunch of goat herders from Afghanistan after 20 years of trying, despite their CMP ratio being almost infinite. And they’re only able to try owing to Pakistan’s permission to run the logistical train through.

Israel has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Khameni from obtaining a nuclear bomb.

Maybe they should try a Naval blockade of Iran. I hear some Putz thinks that it’ll work real good. 😂😂😂😂

So your proposed retaliation is — “China will knowingly join the LOSING side of a nuclear war in the Middle East.”

Perhaps some people shouldn’t stick there noses into other people’s business. They should just stick to their core interests and not troll other nations/civilisations. It’s as if they don’t have enough on their plates to deal with already.

😇

twice less = half. the only time AK uses a Russian expression in English, or as near as i can tell.

does this chart work backwards? India 2020 is equivalent to US 1980? that’s certainly not accurate, but i don’t knock CMP if it’s not meant to work this way.

Iraq is not on the list, presumably because they are occupied. but in 1991 i recall Iraq being in the lower half of the top 10 in military buildup, due to the 80s war with Iran.

the US military defeated Iraq forces for practical purposes in about 3 days. so when people say stuff like the US Navy could sink the entire UK or France navy in like a week, that’s probably accurate. not sure if CMP speaks to that, at least in terms of speed of conflict resolution, the way ELO ratings do for chess.

“The US has a rapidly narrowing window in which to win a conventional war against China.”

not important, since there will never be such a conflict.

“the US can maintain parity by leveraging its systems of alliances”

i wouldn’t count on some of these nations actually fighting up to their numbers on this chart – i bet a lot of EU nations would fold under a serious attack, putting up, for practical purposes, resistance equal to about half of their rating here. these people are soft and weak from 70 years of US protection. those jets and tanks and missiles might be there, but they won’t all be used. the white flag will go up faster than expected. the US will quickly be on their own, or with only the UK and Canada still in the fight.

“I think adding a +25% bonus to Germany’s combat effectiveness based off WW1/WW2 performance is increasingly untenable.”

this is what i’m talking about. Germany should be downrated by -10% actually, or maybe more. in general i would downrate most EU nations by like -30% at minimum. remember, when the UK and France went after Libya in 2011, they literally ran out of bombs and missiles after like 2 weeks. they couldn’t sustain a one sided battle for longer than that. the US had to, as usual, take over completely.

“On a more philosophical note, it is fascinating to observe fault lines harden and alliances coalesce just when critical milestones in relative military power are passed.”

no different than the rest of life. once a woman no longer needs a certain man…once a neighborhood has enough blacks to transition to all blacks…once a company has enough market share to eliminate their competitors…once one political party has enough votes to ignore the other party…once some executive is powerful enough to fire all their enemies and take over the board…and so on. once a power tipping point is crossed, a decades long stalemate quickly ends.

I wonder if China has plants that can convert coal to oil and/or synthetic rubber, like Germany and South Africa did.

“As such, I have converged all rich, high IQ countries, NATO members, Russia, China, and India to the first technological rank”

not a good assumption, for India anyway. Indians are way less capable. 1980 US probably overruns 2020 India in 2 weeks max. they’re garbage at war, and at nuts and bolts stuff in general. it would only take half the US military to completely smash India.

the Suez canal was blocked for a week by a vessel being operated by an incompetent crew of Indians. they have trouble figuring out plumbing. anybody who has worked with Indians for a few years realizes how much they suck at the exact stuff white guys are extremely good at – building and operating real stuff.

“In later editions of the CMP, I plan to do away with “cultural factors” (“south”, “clannish”, “feats”) in general, and replace them with IQ scores”

ok, so why would you uprate Indian forces to US, Russia, and China forces, when Indians are clearly dumb?

but yes, that’s really all that matters now – the intelligence level of the defense contractors. there won’t be any big conventional battles ever again. we’re in a world where only missiles, subs, and drones matter. spacecraft will probably be a decisive advantage when SpaceX gets weaponized. i’m less confident that even some of the aircraft matter much anymore.

Perhaps some people shouldn’t stick there noses into other people’s business.

This is great advice to the CCPutz Elites in Beijing, but I do not think they will take it.

Maybe they should try a Naval blockade of Iran. I hear some Putz thinks that it’ll work real good

You think Putz China should try a Naval blockade of Iran. Is this simultaneous with Putz China aiding Iran?

Yet more crazy flailing on your part. 😆😆😆😆😆

PEACE 😇

Who is the Admiral?

Admirals do tend to be smart, see: Nimitz, Mullen, McRaven, etc.

SmoothieX12, the man who can calculate the details of SAM trajectories with just a slide, a piece of paper and his huge brain.

Meaning that the average Confederate state was able to muster roughly double the manpower of the entire peacetime US Army.

Doesn’t amount to anything when we are talking about musket and bayonet charges against fortified positions defended by soldiers with repeating rifles.

had the Western Allies signed a peace treaty with Germany

Well, dem Jews and the commies in the U. S. bureaucracy put the kibosh on that.

CE is the “total factor productivity,” or how effectively L and K are used, and is a proxy for combat effectiveness value. This is a multiple of the technology level (T); of Troop Quality (Q); and of a cultural factor (C).

No need for manual adjustments. Can this not also be a negative modifier?

Even with high tech toys how can KSA score so high… Or Israel so low compared to KSA.

Does $39 a month buy 15 CMP points?

Addition:. Israels space assets alone must be worth something.

I was in Japan in the early 70’s when I was in the military. Many of the people in the sector that catered to the U. S. military were fine people. I loved the children practicing their English on us.
When I ventured out from the “zone” the people were cordial but it was clear that some of them wouldn’t piss on me if I was on fire.

The diversity pitch in the U.S. military began with Jonesy, the clever sonar operator in Red October. Soon, every recruit thought he would be Jonesy. Half the diversity kids playing high school basketball think they will be in the NBA. They are of course not. But sadly, many in the military are indeed given NBA-hard specialties. During WW II, my dad managed to score very high on the IQ test in the Army Air Corps. He was sent to Europe to brief and debrief pilots. Pure merit.

Just to bring you up to date on current affairs.

Israel has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Khameni from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Which is 100% sensible as deranged Iranian aggression is an existential threat to survival.

Touché.

Just to bring you up to date on current affairs.

China has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Tsai Ing-wen from obtaining Independence . Which is 100% sensible as deranged Taiwanese behavior is an existential threat to survival of a Unified China.

How determined are the Israelis and what means do they have?

They would likely succeed in taking Taiwan.

It’s clear to the whole world how determined the Chinese are. Yet you seem to think that they have the means but not the will. Meshugener!

Egypt is also missing. Last I checked its military was substantially stronger than UAE (the only thing I know about the UAE military is they bought those expensive LeClerc tanks to only abandon them in Yemen).

Egypt is approaching 1300 M1A1 Abrams, not a small number….

Shit Egypt has licensed factories to produce weapons from tanks to AKs. UAE has zero factories.

How…..

What do you think would have happened had D-Day failed?

By the way, wouldn’t the Free French military power in 1945 be greater than 0.00?

I’d also like to see data for Hungary vs. Romania.

Just “dem Jews and the commies in the U. S. bureaucracy”? No one else?

An important factor here that is not calculated, justifiably, in CMP that influenced the outcome of the German invasion of France is simple politics. Much of the French military elite were Fascist (in the actual, historical sense) and were not terribly fond of Republican corruption (as they saw it.) They preferred the (Nazi) Germans, misguided or not, and so deliberately fumbled the defense. Poland, whose military was not compromised, put up a much better per capita fight.

So, between a loyal military with low CMP (Poland), and a disloyal, collaborationist military with high or comparable CMP, one is going to lose either way, ha ha ha.

The west was never going to make peace with Russia. Read Mackinder to know why.

Basically, Russia is a land bridge between Europe and Asia and the west wants to prevent a land bridge between these two regions at all cost.

By blocking land routes between the two regions, the west is able to control Asia through straits.

It’s interesting how well China, Russia, and Iran fit together. I don’t think there is a single configuration the west can bring forth that could beat this group.

This is beyond just resource countries meeting an industrial country.

For instance, Chinese propaganda is really bad but Iran is excellent at propaganda. China should just outsource propaganda to Iran and let them make their content.

Only Japan would (join any fight on behalf of the US) because it has no choice. South Korea won’t. They are only concerned about peace on the Korean Peninsula

No.

This war will be fought with propaganda. Just say for instance that once side takes over the other side’s political structure and institutes a PR campaign that gets the other side to take a shot that alters its DNA and eventually kill themselves.

Then the hypothetical first side just invades a year or two later when the damage is done and the richer, more powerful side has a large percentage of its population dying of a disease.

I mean, it would never happen, but just theoretically…

Looking at the power chart, makes me think back to the ’80s.

There were some Hollywood films that were made with the assistance of the US military, that were evidently meant to make joining the military seem glamorous. Top Gun (1986) with Tom Cruise was probably the most famous. Stripes (1981) The Hunt for Red October (1990).

Looking some over, what is funny is that I see some were made outside the US but with the assistance of Israelis, like Delta Force (1986, with Chuck Norris) or Iron Eagle (1986) or Rambo III (1988).

Did the Soviet Union ever make action movies like that, or did the draft obviate the need for them? What are the best Russian or Chinese military propaganda/action films? Can we expect better Chinese action movies, as China closes the gap?