The potential return of Donald Trump and the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran could reshape U.S.-Iran relations, but regional dynamics have shifted since 2018. Iran has increased its economic resilience through stronger alliances with China and Russia, expanded oil exports, and strategic infrastructure projects. Both sides face an opportunity to negotiate a pragmatic deal focused... Read More

Iraq’s leaders have a lot on their minds, stuck between Israel and Iran as the two countries veer closer to open conflict. Washington generally has a permissive attitude to whatever Israel wants to do, so if the attackers cross Iraq the assumption will be that the Americans approved, or did not disapprove, of the attack... Read More

Afghanistan and Uzbekistan strengthen trade ties with new agreements, including the Termez International Trade Center and the UAP Railway Project. Trade between Afghanistan and its neighbors, including Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, is growing rapidly, with projects like the TAPI Gas Pipeline and Trans-Afghan Corridor. Potential challenges include regional instability, U.S. sanctions, and internal Afghan political... Read More

China is frustrated with Pakistan's inability to protect Chinese workers on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has slowed progress due to violence and instability. Pakistan has launched an anti-terrorism campaign targeting the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), but tensions with Afghanistan complicate efforts to secure the region. Central Asia is developing alternative trade routes, like the... Read More

A delegation from Uzbekistan visited Washington, D.C. to advocate for the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment and establish normal trade relations with the U.S. U.S. legislation is being introduced to grant permanent normal trade relations status to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The U.S. has been less proactive in Central Asia compared to China and Russia,... Read More

The Middle Corridor is a multimodal transport corridor connecting China to Europe. Europe’s limited prospects are opposed to Asia which will see an increasing share of global GDP rising from about 45% today to around 58% by 2030. The republics will use the Middle Corridor to increase trade with Europe, but can’t ignore their neighbors... Read More

Kabul’s key asset is its location but it needs to make a positive contribution to the region by being a good neighbor. The best way forward for Kabul is to keep the Islamic State et al. boxed in, which may require intelligence sharing and cooperation with the neighbors and the U.S. to secure the country... Read More

Azerbaijan’s late September military operation to retake the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-styled “Republic of Artsakh,” caused most of the residents to flee to Armenia and the government of breakaway region to announce it will dissolve by 1 January 2024. The likely end of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia may unlock opportunities for... Read More

It was a day 32 years in the making, but the American president finally met the assembled leaders of the five Central Asian republics on the sidelines of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly. According to the White House, President Biden welcomed discussion on strengthening the republics’ “sovereignty, resilience, and prosperity” while... Read More

The American filmmaker Woody Allen said, ““Eighty percent of success is showing up.” If he is correct, America is not succeeding in Central Asia. But the rulers of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and China, Xi Jinping, leave nothing to chance: Xj has visited every one of the republics and has been to Kazakhstan four times and... Read More

America’s economic siege of Iran has been costly for Tehran’s neighbors, and now it is Pakistan’s turn to pick up the tab. On 7 August, Pakistan announced it was suspending its natural gas pipeline project in Iran under threat of U.S. sanctions, and issued a Force Majeure and Excusing Event notice to Iran under the... Read More

The Central Asian republics are self-organizing in the wake of the NATO evacuation from Afghanistan in August 2021. The republics are wedged between Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, and are pursing multi-vector foreign policies to ensure economic growth, and to ensure they can navigate among the local powers, and the U.S. and Europe, even though... Read More

U.S. consumers are showing significantly less concern about the U.S. energy situation than they did one year ago. The U.S. House of Representatives may once again consider a piece of legislation to pressure the OPEC oil producers’ group to stop making output cuts. The bill may be retaliation against the Arab OPEC countries, and a... Read More

The leaders of the Central Asian republics have cordial relations with Putin and Xi and know their limitations. Turkmenistan’s Central Asian neighbors may not be concerned, but Iran will see the presence of more Americans and Israelis in the area as a prelude to an attack on its nuclear research centers. Both Turkmenistan and the... Read More