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Is Omicron Just the Flu, Bro?
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As in Johannesburg a few weeks ago, new cases of the Omicron covid variant are now falling in New York City, with this Friday’s number of new cases a little under half of last Friday’s. Moreover, ICU’s are not particularly packed, at least not yet: e.g., NYU’s medical center has 65 ICU beds empty.

The Omicron variant probably arrived in the US at either New York’s JFK or Washington’s Dulles airport and then spread to other major air route big cities, and then from there into the hinterlands. So, other cities are behind NYC and DC, but they are starting to look like they may be past their peaks too.

Chicago’s Cook County has seen a drop of approaching 50% in new cases since a week ago, and Los Angeles just had its first day in this wave with fewer cases than one week before.

In Los Angeles, for instance, about 0.4% of the population are registering newly positive each day in official tests shared with the public health authorities. If, say, for every person who gets an official positive test, there are four more who get infected without going into a database, I’m guessing that Omicron might tend to peak out in a metropolis at around 2% of the local population getting infected per day. At that rate, after awhile, there aren’t that many people left to infect.

There’s a new study from the big Kaiser Permanente HMO in Southern California of over 50,000 covid cases in December. It found about three-fourths Omicron, one fourth Delta. But because Omicron didn’t sink in in L.A. until the last third of the month, patient-days after testing positive are roughly equally divided in the sample between the old Delta and the new Omicron strain (a few % more Omicron patient-days)

This study, like several others, shows the new version to be less severe. Hospital stays averaged a median of 4.9 days for Delta and 1.5 for Omicron. (They eliminated from the study people who came into the hospital for some other reason and then were incidentally found to have covid as well.)

Worst Events Delta Omicron

ICU 23 7

Ventilator 11 0

Death 14 1

(I can’t tell, though, whether these are separate outcomes or if the worse events mostly happened to be people already counted in the ICU row.)

On the other hand, Omicron didn’t much get to SoCal until the second half of December so these ratios could narrow with more time. On the other other hand, 84% of admitted Omicron patients had been discharged from the hospital by the end of the study on January 1st vs. 78% of Delta patients.

Also, a higher percentage of Omicron patients were age 20-39.

But, in general, the Omicron experience looks nasty but quick.

The mRNA vaccines were less efficacious at preventing a symptomatic hospital admission for the new Omicron strain than for the recent Delta strain. If I’m reading Table S3 correctly, among Kaiser clients who tested positive as outpatients for covid in December, two doses of Pfizer or Moderna cut your chances of being admitted to the hospital for Delta by 85%. In contrast, two shots cut your chances of being admitted for Omicron by 64%.

Interestingly, booster shots didn’t seem to have a noticeable incremental effect. Presumably, though, people who got booster shots tended to be older (and thus more vulnerable to needing to go to the hospital) and/or to have gotten their first two shots earlier in 2021 than people who didn’t get a booster shot, so the third shot likely has a modest beneficial effect. Hopefully, the authors will release their crosstabs on vaccination status.

I don’t see any data in this study relevant to the question of whether the vaccines slow the spread of Omicron, but it seems likely they aren’t doing much. They do seem to still be reducing hospitalizations by almost 2/3rds, which is important but less than the 5/6ths seen with Delta.

What about the future? If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder. One theory is that Omicron is so infectious because it hangs around in your upper respiratory tract from where it’s easily spread rather than burrowing into your lungs like previous variants that did more harm.

On the other hand, if it’s just random luck that this more infectious variant happens to be less dangerous, then the future is unwritten.

Another question is how long natural immunity to Omicron lasts. Just as the vaccines have lower efficacy against this version of covid, it could be that the natural immunity induced by Omicron is weaker and/or shorter in duration.

Hopefully, therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills will prove safe and effective. At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply. But it seems not unlikely that we will get a reprieve for awhile so that if — or perhaps when — the next damn thing comes along, we’ll by then have enough of these two medicines on hand.

I’m guessing the next few weeks will be a giant hassle with lots of people out of work. Try not to suffer an appendicitis right now.

But then things should get better … at least for awhile, although who knows what will come along next.

It could be that January 2022 is the climax of the pandemic and it will fade away, like the 1918 Spanish Flu had its last wave in 1920.

Then again, we’ve been hopeful before.

 
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  1. It isn’t even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    @LondonBob

    It's a super-duper-infectuous "cold" which indeed is sometimes caused by a coronavirus, sometimes by rhinovirus; having had coronavirus cold will protect you.

    People with health problems may still be bumped into hospital by it.

    Part of the Baltimore Classification:

    https://i.postimg.cc/zXc3bjPs/vrius-classification.png

    Omicron has peaked in the UK:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRycK82LsTE

    Currently exploding in Australia.

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @LondonBob

    Please note that this IFR is in a vaccinated population. Then again, the flu also plays out within an immunised population.

    I got Omicron and there is no way I would have known had I not tested myself for unrelated reasons. I slept in a day. Coughed a few times. And had a very slight tickle in my throat for a couple of hours. I would have thought I had a very mild allergy.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    , @Jack D
    @LondonBob

    I think he plays games a little bit because he assumes that only half of Covid cases are reported in computing his Omicron IFR but he makes no such assumption wrt the flu.

    We also don't know what the Omicron IFR would be like in the absence of a vaccinated population. If we had a better, more tailored to Omicron vax and everyone took it, the Omicron IFR would be even lower. It's easy to say Omicron is just the flu, bro when the population is highly vaccinated including almost all of the most vulnerable elderly. Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    Replies: @WJ, @Bill, @Redman, @Intelligent Dasein

    , @S. Anonyia
    @LondonBob

    I don’t think everyone necessarily *will* get it. Some people seem fairly immune to covid. Others are unusually susceptible and catch it multiple times. I think it’s odd that relatives on my mother’s side of the family have essentially all caught covid 1-2x (1 even died during the delta wave), yet only a few people on my father’s side have. I’d guess about half of my friends and co-workers have had covid, but there are no real behavioral differences between those who caught it and those who did not. Only thing I’ve noticed is that church-goers seem to get covid more, and fat people get far sicker when they do catch it (but everyone already knew that).

    Maybe we still don’t know exactly how covid spreads.

    My husband and I have not caught it. I’ve been exposed multiple times, including last week. We travel regularly (including to covid hotspot Miami recently), hardly ever wear masks, attend social gatherings, etc. He has not worked remotely this entire time and I only worked remotely for about 6 weeks. We both received the vaccine but have no interest in the booster.

    , @obwandiyag
    @LondonBob

    Alright. I can't believe none of you brought this up.

    Name one symptom. One. Name one symptom ascribed to Covid that is not also ascribed to the flu.

    Don't worry. I can save you Google time. The answer is, wait for it, There are none!

    Duh.

    Replies: @for-the-record

    , @Right_On
    @LondonBob

    I had a cold a month back. Felt a bit sleepy, sore throat and runny nose. So mild you wouldn't have bothered taking a day off work. So I was intrigued by a survey revealing that 75% of people reporting those identical symptoms - who'd assumed they just had a cold - actually had the new Omicron variant of Covid. It's therefore more than likely I had the same virus.

    I can't be sure as I've never had myself tested. The thought of foreign objects being shoved into my orifices and scraped around turns my stomach.

    'Lateral flow test' sounds like a schoolboys' pissing competition to see who can urinate the greatest distance.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  2. No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don’t even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists or is the same as “Covid”.

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he’s been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed “high IQ” HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It’s about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will…

    • Troll: Corvinus, jamie b.
    • Replies: @El Dato
    @Dumbo

    Coordination problem of getting everyone to agree to fake up "omicron" for some reason (i.e. a lot of people at a lot of institutions in a lot of countries) says the "prior probability" that you assign to your hypothesis is overly large.

    A consequence of living in front of screens maybe?

    , @Alrenous
    @Dumbo

    >Andrew Anglin might be a nut

    TFW your nutjobs are healthier epistemically than your "serious" "respectable" commentators. Something has gone seriously, seriously wrong.

    --

    Point 1: omicron is absolutely no danger to me personally. No ncov variant has been at all dangerous to me personally. My personal CFR is literally 0. Yes, for me, it is just the flu.

    Point 2: folk are not exactly clamouring to take my health advice. Speaking of things that are 0, nobody wants to put me in charge of anything related to this.

    Conclusion: this is absolutely none of my business. For all problems I am responsible for, the problem was solved in 2015 at the latest. Every moment spent worrying about it is a moment wasted.

    Speaking of folk who (sound like) nutjobs: IMO Sol represents the glory of God, and vitamin D is sunlight in the bottle. Sol rewards my piety by granting me total immunity to disease. Praise be.

    Replies: @Clyde

    , @AndrewR
    @Dumbo

    Exactly. Sailer is taking media/government lies and just analyzing them in his nerdy, autistic way as if it matters.

    The virus is manmade and so is the "pandemic." This ends as soon as we demand it and not a day earlier.

    Replies: @Flying Dutchman

    , @Anonymous
    @Dumbo


    We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists or is the same as “Covid”.
     

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It’s about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will…
     
    The elite, in danger of being "circulated"*, is repeating old tricks, things that have worked for them since about 1970 (50 years!). The old tricks don't work anymore. The mnemonic that will keep you out of trouble most times is that "omicron" is an anagram for "moronic", which is what the COVID effort has become, and what the elite has become. Amazing what inbreeding and regression to the mean will do to a population.

    * "circulated" is a reference to Turchin's work.
    , @BB753
    @Dumbo

    Forget it, Jack, it's Boomertown!

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    , @Greta Handel
    @Dumbo

    Spend a while with the Search tool, and you’ll see that


    Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed “high IQ” HDB crowd
     
    took comfort Noticing how blacks, the less formally educated, the working class, and other foreign tribes disproportionately declined the Big Pharma injections. (Karlin explicitly crowed about COVID culling his inferiors.)

    Even now, Mr. Sailer avoids mention of apparently efficacious therapeutics like Ivermectin, hiding in plain sight despite being censored by the Establishment. Smart white guys would rather datanerd and place their hopes in

    therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills [proving] safe and effective. At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omnicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply. But it seems not unlikely that we will get a reprieve for awhile so that if — or perhaps when — the next damn thing comes along, we’ll by then have enough of these two medicines on hand.
     
    Status insecurity remains at high levels.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy, @RonaldB, @BB753, @Wade Hampton

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Dumbo


    one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point
     
    Do you think it's credible that the media is in uproar at Boris Johnson over Partygate?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10404315/Downing-Street-held-wine-time-Fridays-week-pandemic-Partygate-scandal-deepens.html

    1. Cromwell's mom would love this.
    2. I'm rooting for the execution of Johnson and his body displayed prominently in a gibbet until the birds pick the flesh down to the skeleton. Plus another 365 days.
    3. If they can't pull that off, lock him up in the Tower of London and feed him nothing but starvation ration bread and water.

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0435/8452/0350/files/Boris-Donald.jpeg

    * the argument could be made this is not media content on the subject of covid per se but let's not quibble. No fighting in the war room!

    Replies: @usNthem, @YetAnotherAnon

    , @John Johnson
    @Dumbo

    We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists or is the same as “Covid”.

    So thousands of independently submitted samples are all fake? Thousands of organizations around the world are in on a conspiracy? Is that what you believe?

    COVID will be over in less than 2 months thanks to Omicron.

    The only people bamboozled are the ones that bought a book from a liberal lawyer that has zero background in biology.

    , @Hangnail Hans
    @Dumbo


    I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists
     
    Well I had it last week and I can't recommend it enough. Gives you a night or two of solid ten hours sleep, then you're fresh as a daisy.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Dumbo


    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media say[ ] about Covid at this point...
     
    Or at any point. It should be called "the Goldman flu":




    http://quotespictures.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/work-quote-by-william-goldman-nobody-knows-anything-not-one-person-in-the-entire-motion-picture-field-knows-for-a-certainty-whats-going-to-work-every-time-out-its-a-guess-and-if-youre-lucky.jpg


    https://abrainyquote.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/butterfly.jpg
    , @Dennis Dale
    @Dumbo

    I chuckled at seeing "Troll: Corvinus" here. This should be your complete moniker.

    Jimmy Dore pointed out you'd have been far less misinformed listening to Alex Jones than to Rachel Maddow.

    As for all the good, smart people getting played, I think the lesson learned for future societal manipulation is: Get Them Chasing Data. They'll be like golden retrievers playing fetch, and just as harmless.

  3. Sailer’s yella

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  4. Let’s get Sailer… He likes it, he likes it.



    Video Link

    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
    @Anonymous

    "...he won't buy it, he doubts everything--he bought it, hey Sailer!"

  5. So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @tyrone
    @Hypnotoad666


    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society
     
    ....not "we" ,they (old fashion they)......war gaming pandemics while conducting gain of function on corona virus bio weapon,"they" have been planning this for years ....the dots connect themselves.
    , @El Dato
    @Hypnotoad666

    We really got amazingly lucky amazingly fast,

    There is no INHERENT reason for the virus to mutate in a direction of "more infectuous, less lethal" - that's just dogma. It could alternatively go for "more infectuous, more lethal" because the long-winded propagation process doesn't care whether you croak, just that you pass it on.

    Most infectious respèiratory virus in the world. Imagine that. And it's rather harmless. And it happened quickly. And it came from mice. Also, even Biden's high-quality masks are likely to be useless now.

    All of this is so convenient that, if this were an X-Files episode, I would expect an ending scene where a man with a raincoat walks down an aisle of fridges and places a vial marked "omicron" back into the freezer right next to the alien foetus.

    Replies: @fredtard

    , @Anonymous
    @Hypnotoad666


    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.
     
    And the forced masking and isolation (and vaccine?) have substantially lowered children’s IQ.

    COVID rules are blamed for 23% dive in young children's development: Disturbing study shows scores in three key cognitive tests slumped between 2018 and 2021, with face mask rules among possible culprits

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10247315/Face-masks-harm-childrens-development-Study-blames-significantly-reduced-development.html
     
    23%! Try to project the term costs on that!

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/2c/f8/38/2cf8381d65cebcd00b01ede8a20e1c19.jpg
    , @TorontoTraveller
    @Hypnotoad666

    I admire Steve and read him every day. I have donated to him in the past, but am probably overdue to send a contribution - I feel a bit like a lapsed Catholic (which I am) in this regard.

    However, I am waiting for him to concede your point, which seemed obvious two years ago.

    In a similar vein, will Cochran ever admit he over-reacted hysterically to COVID? He obviously influenced Steve in this regard.

    Is theirs the first generation who are so terrified of death they don't want to admit that it will come to them in much the same manner it has come to all preceding generations?

    Replies: @MLK

    , @JR Ewing
    @Hypnotoad666


    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.
     
    Frankly, it was the biggest example of narcissism and "recency bias" that the world has ever seen.

    It wasn't the actual virus that was (gasp) UNPRECEDENTED! It was the ridiculous overreaction to it.
    , @Redman
    @Hypnotoad666

    Yep. And let’s not forget Sweden. The one major country that bucked the hype and did things largely like those virologists suggested.

    In 2021 they had the lowest excess death rate in all of Europe. And they also halted the mRNA vaccine for people 30 and under back in early October. Who’s crying now?

    , @ganderson
    @Hypnotoad666

    We’re starting to lock back down here in Western Massachusetts. Amherst and Smith Colleges have announced they will begin the semester remotely. Amherst has banned spectators from its indoor athletic events, and Amherst and Smith, as well as the local high school have banned cloth masks- you must wear an N 95 or whatever the hell they’re called, or be, and I’m not making this up, double masked. My hand surgery has been postponed till who knows when, Municipalities are debating whether to redefine fully vaccinated as 3 jabs.
    Oh and the MIAA, the governing board for high school athletics in the state, has reaffirmed that all winter indoor athletes, mainly hoops and hockey, must wear masks while they are playing. The mask requirement for pupils in class has been extended to at least mid February, The MTA, the statewide teachers’ union, is lobbying heavily for a return to remote classes; so far sausage-spined RINO governor Charlie BakerParker is resisting- we’ll see if that continues.
    My wife had NPR on while she was cooking dinner the other night- it was a non stop 45 minutes of CoronaPanic. My local Hampshire county daily paper is all panic, all the time. Two of our neighbors, who normally walk their dogs with my wife refused to do it this week because we had been to Michigan and back over the weekend. And yes, we’re all vaccinated.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Brutusale, @kaganovitch

    , @Wizard of Oz
    @Hypnotoad666

    The key to design making was always going g to be politicians' attempts to avoid blame, pri.arily blame for overloading of the health system.

    , @Dieter Kief
    @Hypnotoad666


    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime 
     
    - in the beginning, nobody knew how this thing would play out. If I'm right, your claim implies the likes of Steve Sailer and Greg Cochran and Ron Unz et. al. - in the light of this - act - i think your claim about the voluntary destruction of the economy is not absolutely plausible, to choose the weakest version of my contradiction here.

    On a different note: Pandemics are perfect petri dishes for all kinds of ghosts in our basements to have a King's Banquet with - if my metaphor is halfwayst on track.

    Put more bluntly: Pandemics are not least occasions in which - - - we, as societies, show (and have to deal with) rather dark (= half-conscious / subconscious) regions which - per definition - are no places where nothing but sound reasons emerge. There's angst there, in those darker regions of our selves, and suspicions, hate, confusion, inner turmoil etc. pp. - . Thing is: We can only tell in retrospect, who really had a clear mind (Jackson Browne - "(...) it takes a clear mind to make it" (in his version of the song Cocaine....).

    Now that we're through with this Covid thing (or close to being through), I started to reflect about it and what I can say while looking  back at close to seven hundred days which saw me on average at least an hour / day - often more - trying to figure out what was going on, this one thing that I take home with me is the sentence by Sigmund Freud: The voice of reason is speaking softly. Here I think of Martin Kulldorff and John Ioannidis, and of an outsider: science blogger Hail to You - all of them champions of this debate - and of some commenters here or on Ron Unz' site like like ic1000 and the tirelessly arguing That would be telling (and quite a few others too). Coolest - and softest spoken - dudes of all: Johan Giesecke and his pupil and successor Anders Tegnell in Sweden (Freddy Sayers of UnHerd TV did a great job interviewing them).

    The next best thing after being soft-spoken or maybe the best thing even, is if the debaters are able to show self-irony. Like Michael Levitt did and Ivor Cummins and - the lovely! and heartwarmingly clear Swiss retired virology professor Beda M. Stadler, whom Ivor Cummins features prominently in his Covid documentary film.

    For me personally Stadler with his articles in the Swiss press and his TV-appearances in Swiss and Austrian first rank TV-talk-shows and news-shows and his guest-appearances on Burkhard Müller-Ullrich's very soft spoken and here and there self-ironic podcast Idubio of the German site Achgut.Com, where the Swiss Professor Stadler appeared regularly, made the biggest difference. Together with the German family-doctor and well known medical writer Gunter Frank, who wrote ca. eighty very well informed articles on Achgut.Com and did publish a decent book about covid called "Der Staats Virus" ( = the Virus who was created by the state and who affected the state...). 

    Lots of others were not either soft spoken and / or self-ironic, and did raise some interesting questions, but they were often times contaminated with outlandish speculations (Rainer Fuellmich, Dr. Wodarg, Dr. Malone...).

    All in all I'd hold, that the real difference made those who knew how to stay cool and - how to differentiate between facts and predictions. Statistics seemed to be the biggest hurdle for most who paticipapted in this debate - here the science blogger Orwell2024 was doing great work, and the British mathematician Norman Fenton (both are on twitter).

    The best Covid rant was Joe Rogan's - by a mile - if not by two: Removed from youtube - the three-minute-clip in which he says, that he has not been ill for years - that he thinks, that not moving your lazy bones while being severely overweight is maybe the most damaging Covid-risk-factor - way worse than getting the jab - or not... - which, I think, could quite easily turn out to be - at least quite close to the truth. But except for that: This short clip is the great anti-panic Covid-performance!

    Replies: @anon, @ic1000

    , @HA
    @Hypnotoad666

    "...we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out."

    In the end, your precious economy won't change your inevitable demise either, no matter how hot and bothered you are to see it "destroyed", so I think you got some consistency issues you might want to work through if you really expect anyone outside your echo chamber to take you seriously.

    Some people think limiting a death toll that was projected (fairly well, in hindsight) to be about two million in the US, under a Lukashenko-style let-her-rip policy, to less than a third of that (not including the deaths of anti-vaxxers, because, come on, they're just getting what they asked for) is a worthwhile endeavor. And that's basically what happened; the Lukashenkos among us, be they in Israel or Russia or this place -- were for the most part dismissed world-wide as the nutjobs that they are.

    The fact that you think all the effort that entailed was nothing but a waste of time kind of explains why no one listens to the likes of you in general. I mean, it's no wonder the chamber-of-commerce types keep caving in to the cheap-labor immigration lobbies. In the end, it's all about the economy, am I right? Why would we ever want to anything to upset THAT import-the-masses perpetual-growth Ponzi scheme?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @BB753

    , @jamie b.
    @Hypnotoad666

    Yes, a vast over-reaction except for hospitals being overwhelmed.

  6. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    It’s a super-duper-infectuous “cold” which indeed is sometimes caused by a coronavirus, sometimes by rhinovirus; having had coronavirus cold will protect you.

    People with health problems may still be bumped into hospital by it.

    Part of the Baltimore Classification:

    Omicron has peaked in the UK:

    Currently exploding in Australia.

    • Agree: Dieter Kief
  7. @Anonymous
    Let's get Sailer... He likes it, he likes it.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/4CarUfCV0Ku8/

    Replies: @Dennis Dale

    “…he won’t buy it, he doubts everything–he bought it, hey Sailer!”

    • LOL: BB753, Dieter Kief
  8. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    Coordination problem of getting everyone to agree to fake up “omicron” for some reason (i.e. a lot of people at a lot of institutions in a lot of countries) says the “prior probability” that you assign to your hypothesis is overly large.

    A consequence of living in front of screens maybe?

  9. High levels of realism:

    Russia shelves plans for nationwide vaccine passports: Officials say the proposed legislation is not suited to the current coronavirus situation

    Russian lawmakers have postponed consideration of a bill that would introduce a nationwide system of QR-code vaccine passes, saying that the law needs to be adapted to deal with the new Omicron variant of Covid-19.

    Tatyana Golikova, the deputy prime minister for social policy, labor, health and pension provision, told journalists on Friday that government officials, together with leaders of ruling party United Russia, had decided the proposed legislation would need to be adjusted before it could be considered further. Originally, the law aimed to consolidate policies across different local governments, many of which require proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, bars, clubs, and mass events.

    “Considering the many unknowns about the development of the epidemiological situation, the government and the United Russia party made a mutual decision to postpone the second reading of the bill,” Golikova stated.

    Andrey Turchak, secretary-general of the General Council of United Russia, clarified that the current legislation was formulated last year mainly as a response to the Delta variant, and that it needed to be revised in light of more recent developments. “United Russia looked at the details of the situation, and believes that the only correct course is to defer consideration of the bill,” he said.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @El Dato

    Meanwhile, here in America, the Democrats are even more dangerously delusional than I thought:

    "Rasmussen next asked if people favor home confinement for those who are not vaccinated. On the GOP side, 79% were opposed, while 59% of Democrats favored it.

    The survey also asked about those who challenge the government’s view of vaccines and if opponents should be jailed or fined for questioning it on social media. A remarkable 48% of Democrats supported those punishments.

    And nearly half of Democrats favored fixing tracking devices on those who refused to vaccinate."

    Replies: @Adam Smith

  10. Dishonest. The only question is, it is airborne AIDS which justifies economic shutdown, youth suicide, altering ventilator procedure, silencing mainstream scientists, ignoring and forbidding legitimate medications, throwing elections, and in fact justifies everything except — and I want to be clear about this — doing anything up to so much as disrespecting the bioterrorists who did this to us? Because nothing justifies disrespecting Fauci or Xi.

    • Thanks: sayless
    • Replies: @Clyde
    @J.Ross


    Dishonest. The only question is, it is airborne AIDS which justifies economic shutdown, youth suicide, altering ventilator procedure, silencing mainstream scientists, ignoring and forbidding legitimate medications, throwing elections, and in fact justifies everything except — and I want to be clear about this — doing anything up to so much as disrespecting the bioterrorists who did this to us? Because nothing justifies disrespecting Fauci or Xi.
     
    I remember the first five years when AIDs came out. Fauci along with the gays spread relentless propaganda that AIDs was not just a gay disease. That anyone.everyone can get it. The first major debunking of this was in the New Republic by Michael Fumento. Circa 1987. This article broke the ice.
    The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS by Michael Fumento is his book that came out in 1989

    Today the same fear porn theater is going on with that pos Fauci and Covidxyz. That anyone can get a severe case, maybe die, not just those with comorbidities and over 70 years old. I conclude that Fauci is addicted to fear mongering. He gets off on this. The PTB and the mega-Pharmas did not have the juice to make everyone get an anti-AIDs vaxxx back then. Otherwise they would have. These days Americans are more gullible and lacking in the common sense to suss out a scam, such as the vaxxxes and yearly booster shots scam for Covidxyz.

    American hypochondria --->>> We are all gonna freakin' Die™! without getting vaxxxed and boostered up ye ol wazoo.

  11. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    >Andrew Anglin might be a nut

    TFW your nutjobs are healthier epistemically than your “serious” “respectable” commentators. Something has gone seriously, seriously wrong.

    Point 1: omicron is absolutely no danger to me personally. No ncov variant has been at all dangerous to me personally. My personal CFR is literally 0. Yes, for me, it is just the flu.

    Point 2: folk are not exactly clamouring to take my health advice. Speaking of things that are 0, nobody wants to put me in charge of anything related to this.

    Conclusion: this is absolutely none of my business. For all problems I am responsible for, the problem was solved in 2015 at the latest. Every moment spent worrying about it is a moment wasted.

    Speaking of folk who (sound like) nutjobs: IMO Sol represents the glory of God, and vitamin D is sunlight in the bottle. Sol rewards my piety by granting me total immunity to disease. Praise be.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    @Alrenous


    Speaking of folk who (sound like) nutjobs: IMO Sol represents the glory of God, and vitamin D is sunlight in the bottle. Sol rewards my piety by granting me total immunity to disease. Praise be.
     
    You and I are the only ones mentioning D3 here, that has 295 comments. Optimum D3 levels are 90 for Covid protection and, in my opinion, all virus protection. Get your D3 levels checked out today at Quest etc. via your blood sample. Usually this costs you nothing via your insurance. If low, take 10000 iu D3 daily. 10000 iu D3 gelcaps cost the same as 5000 iu D3 gelcaps.

    https://www.amazon.com/Carlyle-Vitamin-Softgels-Promotes-Supplement/dp/B07GRBQY5B
    You will be shocked to see what hi-dose D3 costs in the UK and Europe. I am fairly sure that the highest you can buy is D3 @1000 iu.

    Replies: @Alrenous, @Expletive Deleted

  12. There are signs in South Africa that deaths chronologically lag with Omicron but as always we are in the fog of pandemic war.

    The sudden mainstream outbreak of happy talk, “over and done in spring of 2022” is classic denial as a result of obvious “vaccine” failure. With each new booster, the law of diminishing returns means less and less, albeit temporary, protection is conferred. With each injection, the possibility of adverse events (sudden heart attacks and strokes) increases. This is leading to a “coffin corner” type situation where suddenly there are no good choices.

    Deaths in the US are about to peak above last year’s record numbers. This is after more than 520 million injections have been given in the vaccines glory days of Operation Barbarossa. It’s getting increasingly difficult to stigmatize the unvaxxed knucklehead wreckers for this huge L. If Omicron is the vaccine’s Stalingrad, then next winter’s new variant will force the vaxxed into hiding in a Berlin bunker fantasizing about Army Detachment Steiner coming to the rescue in the form of a new vaccine. Health care capitalism is all about return on investment and if the profits are not large enough, Steiner ain’t coming — assuming of course the technical and manufacturing capacity even exists for a Steiner miracle.

    There is a dialectical relationship between the pathogen and the terrain. America has a profoundly sick, obese, and unhealthy demographic terrain. Even a relatively “mild” pathogen like Omicron can wreak havoc in such a terrain — slicing through pre-diabetic degeneracy like a knife through soft warm butter. The vaccines may very well be providing brief short-term protection at the cost of long-term corruption of the immune system terrain. This is before we even consider the direct damage the vaccines are indisputably inflicting on young virile males in order to protect diabetic obese wise Latinas sitting on the SCOTUS.

    All this was foreseeable. There has never been a successful vaccine against a coronavirus that works for more than two months. There has never been a mRNA product that passed animal safety testing (we are currently in that stage with these vaxxes). And “Warp Speed” leads to failed operations. Science has abandoned its day job to take up a night job of “messaging.” History tells us the sworn enemy of a great message is truth.

  13. Just the Flu, bro? Nah, just the Cold. It’s running rampant through my workplace. What a joke: Folks gets the sniffles, five days off work, five days wearing a diaper then back to the grind.

    If there hadn’t been two years of hysteria, nobody would be sticking swabs up their nose, or any of the rest of the theater. Theater: All the face-diapers and quarantines have done NOTHING to affect the spread of the bug. Hell, even the vaccines and boosters (of which I have gotten the full suite, at the insistence of Mrs. Prude, (who watches too much TV, even at about two hours a week)) – even the vaccines have proven to be a farce, enriching big Pharma and providing more Theatre.

    I encountered a True Covidian earlier this week: Mrs. Prude’s flakey freind in California to whom I have not heard from in ten years. When I asked how she and her family were doing she told me how lucky they were not to have gotten Covid.

    Me: “Don’t worry, we’ll all get it eventually. Probably twice.”

    She “I know three people who have DIED of Covid!”

    Me: “Funny, I know scores who have gotten it, and no one even went to hospital.” Silence…

    • Thanks: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Old Prude


    What a joke: Folks gets the sniffles, five days off work, five days wearing a diaper then back to the grind.
     
    Why do they have to wear a diaper?

    Replies: @Flying Dutchman, @Old Prude

  14. Then again, we’ve been hopeful before.

    Hope brings eternity! – Irish proverb, heheh.

    On the other hand, if it’s just random luck that this more infectious variant happens to be less dangerous, then the future is unwritten.

    The expression random luck sounds a bit off here. – Humans and virusses coexist since ages – this system is set up to work, not to destroy itself by eradicating one part of the delicate balance that it represents.

    Bottom line: Until proven wrong, assume that life knows its way ( – or else look back with a smile to Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz’ idea of the prestabilized harmony (in: Monadologie, 1720) that – supports / surrounds – everything (= all that there is (and/or – – ever was…).

    – Always look at the bright side of Omicron!

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @El Dato
    @Dieter Kief


    Until proven wrong, assume that life knows its way
     
    Dinosaurs and civilizations previously living near amazingly energetic cosmic events strongly disagree!

    prestabilized harmony
     
    These ideas were unfortunately born out of an overly idealistic and religious Weltanschauung. There is scant grounds for optimism along such cosmic lines.

    All we know is that change is a game of chance.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    , @John Milton’s Ghost
    @Dieter Kief

    True, yet….
    The geological record provides a lot of evidence that mass extinction is a regular occurrence. The reason we have fossil fuels is because of one of those die-offs. While I am sanguine that the more recent pattern of coadaptation will hold, you never know.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  15. The original virus was fairly harmless to people under 80, with decent immune systems – as coronaviruses tend to be. If only maybe half of modern society were familiar with the science (a basic layman’s grasp would suffice), we wouldn’t have fallen for many of the traps the global elite set for us.

    • Replies: @lavoisier
    @Nodwink

    If the virus was bioengineered by humans, all bets are off as to how this thing plays out.

  16. @Dieter Kief

    Then again, we've been hopeful before.
     

    Hope brings eternity! - Irish proverb, heheh.

    On the other hand, if it’s just random luck that this more infectious variant happens to be less dangerous, then the future is unwritten.
     
    The expression random luck sounds a bit off here. - Humans and virusses coexist since ages - this system is set up to work, not to destroy itself by eradicating one part of the delicate balance that it represents.

    Bottom line: Until proven wrong, assume that life knows its way ( - or else look back with a smile to Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz' idea of the prestabilized harmony (in: Monadologie, 1720) that - supports / surrounds - everything (= all that there is (and/or - - ever was...).

    - Always look at the bright side of Omicron!

    Replies: @El Dato, @John Milton’s Ghost

    Until proven wrong, assume that life knows its way

    Dinosaurs and civilizations previously living near amazingly energetic cosmic events strongly disagree!

    prestabilized harmony

    These ideas were unfortunately born out of an overly idealistic and religious Weltanschauung. There is scant grounds for optimism along such cosmic lines.

    All we know is that change is a game of chance.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @El Dato


    prestabilized harmony
     
    "These ideas were unfortunately born out of an overly idealistic and religious Weltanschauung. There is scant grounds for optimism along such cosmic lines."

    - "We here at Taki's Magazine take life lightly". - That's what I had in mind, while writing my post above about Leibniz 'n' stuff (the nearing end of the Corona hardships).
    And I wouldn't take Leibniz hostage for mankinds past sins - let alone our actual ones.

    For me it all boils down to say, that it might be rather useful to understand Omicron as a glass that is at least half full.

    And ok - the dinosaurs and all that - we're lucky that we are no dinosaurs - and have never been too close to being one. -

    - Seen from a human standpoint, evolution has turned out quite nicely. - And why not?!

  17. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    Exactly. Sailer is taking media/government lies and just analyzing them in his nerdy, autistic way as if it matters.

    The virus is manmade and so is the “pandemic.” This ends as soon as we demand it and not a day earlier.

    • Replies: @Flying Dutchman
    @AndrewR


    The virus is manmade and so is the “pandemic.” This ends as soon as we demand it and not a day earlier.
     
    Yes, and there's no "demand" needed. It ends as soon as enough people stop complying and not a day earlier.
  18. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society

    ….not “we” ,they (old fashion they)……war gaming pandemics while conducting gain of function on corona virus bio weapon,”they” have been planning this for years ….the dots connect themselves.

  19. The previous “variants” of alleged “Covid” were just the flu. “Omicron” is just the common cold.*

    And the “testing” regime is and always has been a monumental fraud, nothing more or less. By now the mass obsession with “getting tested” is a lunacy within the lunacy.**

    *Indeed literally, since the common cold allegedly comes from a coronavirus indistinguishable from any other coronavirus in a **”test”.

    So anytime you have a sniffle you’re free to decide you have a cold, just like everyone always did before, or “I have Covid!!!!”, depending upon your religious affiliation (Covidian or Other) and level of sanity.

  20. Anonymous[306] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists or is the same as “Covid”.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It’s about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will…

    The elite, in danger of being “circulated”*, is repeating old tricks, things that have worked for them since about 1970 (50 years!). The old tricks don’t work anymore. The mnemonic that will keep you out of trouble most times is that “omicron” is an anagram for “moronic”, which is what the COVID effort has become, and what the elite has become. Amazing what inbreeding and regression to the mean will do to a population.

    * “circulated” is a reference to Turchin’s work.

  21. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    Forget it, Jack, it’s Boomertown!

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @BB753

    Too funny.

  22. Probably Omicron is just like a flu. But one of the nastier strains.

  23. I have Omicron right now. Started feeling slightly ill a couple of days ago.

    Day one: Slight fatigue and mild upper respiratory congestion.
    Day two: Nothing more than a light cough and a bit of fatigue. The upper respiratory congestion — the urge to clear my throat every five seconds — resolved itself. Out of an abundance of caution, and concern for my parents who are in town for a visit, I took a covid test which came back positive.
    Day three: Sore throat. Mild runny nose. <— I am here.

    At no point did I have a fever, a serious cough, or any other concerning symptoms. For me — late 30s, double vaxxed as of May 2021 — Omicron is much less severe than the average flu. The flu, when I’m unfortunate enough to catch it, always knocks me on my ass. (Though the last time I caught the flu was nearly a decade ago.)

    I caught covid alpha in 2020, and it was a lot worse than this.

  24. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    We really got amazingly lucky amazingly fast,

    There is no INHERENT reason for the virus to mutate in a direction of “more infectuous, less lethal” – that’s just dogma. It could alternatively go for “more infectuous, more lethal” because the long-winded propagation process doesn’t care whether you croak, just that you pass it on.

    Most infectious respèiratory virus in the world. Imagine that. And it’s rather harmless. And it happened quickly. And it came from mice. Also, even Biden’s high-quality masks are likely to be useless now.

    All of this is so convenient that, if this were an X-Files episode, I would expect an ending scene where a man with a raincoat walks down an aisle of fridges and places a vial marked “omicron” back into the freezer right next to the alien foetus.

    • LOL: Sulu
    • Replies: @fredtard
    @El Dato

    Some "dogmas" are more common-sense than others. Very sick people that don't die don't mingle and disseminate pathogens much: they're in bed. Which is why common sense dictates that non-sterilizing "vaccines" that merely reduce symptoms increased asymptomatic transmission of covid. Whether that was an unintended consequence or intentional, well, who can read minds?

    I hadn't heard that "...it came from mice." If you have a source, I'd be interested. Thanks.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  25. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    Please note that this IFR is in a vaccinated population. Then again, the flu also plays out within an immunised population.

    I got Omicron and there is no way I would have known had I not tested myself for unrelated reasons. I slept in a day. Coughed a few times. And had a very slight tickle in my throat for a couple of hours. I would have thought I had a very mild allergy.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I got Omicron and there is no way I would have known had I not tested myself for unrelated reasons.
     
    I'm curious to know - how did you know that what you got was Omicron? Do they have a specific Omicron test?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  26. Omicron is new and weaker. Probably, we’ll see new versions of vaccines good for the immune system re. omicron, too.

    What is to be done, in Chernyshevsky’s words?

    Nothing, business as usual.

    Get inoculated & not be an anti-waxx idiot; behave responsibly, as mature people do- unlike anti-Covid rabble; and this virus, along with others to come, will have become weaker & weaker, nothing special.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Bardon Kaldian

    What is to be done...?

    Nothing, business as usual.

    Get inoculated & not be an anti-waxx idiot...


    "For evil to take over, all you need is for good people to do nothing"--unquote, something like that.

    So what's with the "get inoculated, don't be an anti-vax idiot"? How about 20,000 DEAD in America from the vaccine (per VAERS)? Europe included, double that. Who's an idiot again? Ho-hum, just do what the (govt., big pharma) man says.

    Replies: @Flying Dutchman

  27. Western governments have show themselves absolutely useless in the face of this disease.

    They simply used it as a vector for forwarding their pre-existing agenda of control and miscegenation.

  28. Another question is how long natural immunity to Omicron lasts. Just as the vaccines have lower efficacy against this version of covid, it could be that the natural immunity induced by Omicron is weaker and/or shorter in duration.

    Yeah, as in those people who get the flu every year or two… or used to, before it could be marked as a Covid case and save on co-pays. Questions for you all: When did influenza become a thing? Was it worse the first time around?

  29. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    It isn’t even close to the flu.

    That’s right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn’t that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration–in desperate need of a win–will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I’d be willing to put money on it. If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    • Agree: Old and Grumpy
    • Disagree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @Sick of Orcs
    @slumber_j


    If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.
     
    There is no "getting back to normal," by design. Do you think globalist swine will throw away their chance to tag and barcode every last one of their human inventory?

    Only tsunamis of bloodshed will rid us of globalists.

    Replies: @Dmon

    , @aNewBanner
    @slumber_j

    No, the Biden regime can’t end the panic. First, it’s beyond their influence to rewrite the script of the establishment media. Though the media tends Democratic, they have interests beyond the Party. Second, there are too many people invested in a continuing COVID response, and these people have too much power. The Chicago teachers union just forced the city to back down again in the name of COVID. Why would they give up COVID hysteria to save Joe? He’s a lost cause at this point. Third, the Biden regime needs the emergency powers from COVID to battle other crises, like inflation. They would need to start a war or something to retain these powers without COVID. (Nervously checking on Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran…)

    Replies: @Rooster12

    , @mmack
    @slumber_j

    "Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration–in desperate need of a win–will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I’d be willing to put money on it. If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal."

    Could already be happening. Is the groundwork being laid? 🤔

    https://twitter.com/Andre__Damon/status/1482069977826009092?s=20

    As to your report of your symptoms, I had something similar this week. Hardly any worse than your common cold 🤧.

    Replies: @slumber_j

    , @Justvisiting
    @slumber_j


    the Biden Administration–in desperate need of a win–will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace.
     
    They will also still push vaccine boosters forever because they are a wholly owned subsidiary of Big Pharma.

    Follow the money.
    , @Barnard
    @slumber_j

    They are already laying the groundwork for declaring victory with the guideline changes they have made. Recommended quarantine times have been cut to 5 days. Hilariously they are now recommending no quarantine at all for a "close contact" who has had a booster shot, but they want these people to wear a mask for 5 days. The problem they have is they have whipped the true believers into such a frenzy and Covid zealotry has become such an important part of their lives, it will be hard to talk them back down while there are still new cases circulating. The AP put out guidance to quit reporting new case numbers which should help.

    , @Redman
    @slumber_j

    Totally agree. They just moved the annual State of The Union address to early March, the latest held since 1934.

    Clearly they know where this is heading. And they want to have one thing for Biden to get those nauseating standing ovations for.

    Replies: @slumber_j

    , @Hangnail Hans
    @slumber_j

    Yeah I think you nailed it. Last year was something else, though, since they promised us they'd rescue the nation from the 'Trump Virus' but instead they made it worse.

    , @Prester John
    @slumber_j

    What is so maddening about the Covid (no matter the variant) is that it effects people differently. Some become desperately ill while others have only mild symptoms. And some have NO symptoms at all! When it comes to the elderly, people whose immune systems are compromised by pre-existing disease/illness or people whose immune systems are (for whatever reason) naturally compromised, this virus seems to take no prisoners. How long this thing will last is an open question--particularly since the Covid 19 appears to produce spinoff varieties i.e. Delta and Omicron--but given that the population of the world has increased almost fourfold since the Spanish Flu, it says here that in one form or another this little sonofabitch may be around a long, long time.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

  30. On the other hand, if it’s just random luck that this more infectious variant happens to be less dangerous, then the future is unwritten.

    Technically, this is how all evolution works. The mutations themselves are random, but “natural selection” makes those changes more successful in surviving and replicating and thus they get passed on more readily than other such random changes and end up perpetuating more.

    Drives me crazy to hear people say that, “The virus is trying to survive by not evolving to not kill its hosts as quickly” which, while kind of true in a very nebulous and 35,000 foot manner and if you squint your eyes just right, is bullshit at the individual level.

    The individuals virons have no idea what they are doing. The virus is just virusing, which means all it “wants” to do is replicate. Because that replication happens so rapidly and frequently, there are lots of opportunities for mutations and minor changes every time a copy is made, all of which are random. Some just so happen to make for less serious disease and more infectiousness, and those are the ones that have more success going forward.

    It could also “randomly” mutate back to the original state, but since that one is slightly harder to pass and more likely to kill the host, it is less likely to propagate propagate compared to the new one, and thus the less lethal but more contagious version stays dominant. This is natural selection in a nutshell – random changes finding (or not finding( individual success in a specific environment and becoming dominant if they find an advantage in that environment.

    But every single bit of it at the genetic level is “random luck”.

  31. Is omicron just the flu, bro? Who cares.

  32. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    There is no “getting back to normal,” by design. Do you think globalist swine will throw away their chance to tag and barcode every last one of their human inventory?

    Only tsunamis of bloodshed will rid us of globalists.

    • Replies: @Dmon
    @Sick of Orcs

    Agree. The covid pandemic will never end until they get what they were after all along.

    https://twitter.com/AuronMacintyre/status/1481649810184695810

  33. I got it last week I think. It’s been annoying, but mild. Slight headache and cough, some mucus, and tired, but not even as bad as the usual cold.

    I listened to Rogan’s podcast with the MD who pioneered modified RNA (or whatever) and he said that most everyone will get Omicron and then we well have herd immunity.

    You are right that Biden will declare victory come spring and the lick spittle rump swabs in the media will chirp right along. Not sure about going back to normal whatever that is now. A lot of teachers seem to like the staying at home part. And governments rarely give up newly acquired powers.

    The fearless Alex Berenson on the origins of the Kung Flu: https://amgreatness.com/2022/01/14/truth-leaks-out/

    tl;dr – China did it and lied about it.

  34. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    Spend a while with the Search tool, and you’ll see that

    Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed “high IQ” HDB crowd

    took comfort Noticing how blacks, the less formally educated, the working class, and other foreign tribes disproportionately declined the Big Pharma injections. (Karlin explicitly crowed about COVID culling his inferiors.)

    Even now, Mr. Sailer avoids mention of apparently efficacious therapeutics like Ivermectin, hiding in plain sight despite being censored by the Establishment. Smart white guys would rather datanerd and place their hopes in

    therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills [proving] safe and effective. At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omnicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply. But it seems not unlikely that we will get a reprieve for awhile so that if — or perhaps when — the next damn thing comes along, we’ll by then have enough of these two medicines on hand.

    Status insecurity remains at high levels.

    • Thanks: Pierre de Craon
    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    @Greta Handel

    Oh, please - be reasonable! Who wouldn't trust Pfizer's new medicine after their sterling safety record with the vaccine? [sarcasm alert]

    , @RonaldB
    @Greta Handel

    Yes. And the milder, safer, cheaper therapeutics like Ivermectin work best if begun early in the progression of the disease. If you can find a doctor who understands treating Covid, by all means use that doctor. The newer monoclonal antibodies are being used under an Emergency Use Authorization, just like the rRNA vaccines. So, the long-term safety is a crapshoot, just like the vaccines.

    , @BB753
    @Greta Handel

    Medical authorities knew that hydroxychloriquine and ivermectin worked as early as April 2020. The Chinese used steroids and hydroxychloriquine in the early Wuhan outbreak. The CDC and the FDA just chose to suppress any other treatment than ventilators and remdesevir, a swift ticket to death, in order to push the new experimental fancy vaccines.

    https://www.projectveritas.com/news/military-documents-about-gain-of-function-contradict-fauci-testimony-under/

    , @Wade Hampton
    @Greta Handel


    Hopefully, therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills will prove safe and effective.
     
    Can you imagine being gullible enough to trust anything coming out of Pfizer's pipeline related to Covid?

    Can you imagine anyone being gullible enough to take medical advice from a lifelong government bureaucrat like Fauci?

    Hopefully, therapeutics like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin (already known to be safe and effective) will be allowed by Fauci and the CDC to be used early in the course of the disease.

    My wife got one of the Covid variants in August 2021, her O2 sats dropped into the high 80s and she called her local GP who told her to go to the hospital. No therapeutics. Just check into the hospital, get put on a ventilator and die. Luckily, we found a doc who would prescribe ivermectin, azithromycin, budesonide inhalers, etc. and she recovered.

    By preventing the early use of off-patent therapeutics in order to enrich his paymasters in Pharma, Fauci murdered hundreds of thousands of people who unlike my wife actually took medical advice from a government bureaucrat.

    Replies: @anon, @Flying Dutchman

  35. Anonymous[252] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    And the forced masking and isolation (and vaccine?) have substantially lowered children’s IQ.

    COVID rules are blamed for 23% dive in young children’s development: Disturbing study shows scores in three key cognitive tests slumped between 2018 and 2021, with face mask rules among possible culprits

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10247315/Face-masks-harm-childrens-development-Study-blames-significantly-reduced-development.html

    23%! Try to project the term costs on that!

  36. Garbage in, garbage out, Sailer. It’s obvious to everyone who notices that these stats are all bullshit. Give it up already.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @Catdog


    Garbage in, garbage out, Sailer. It’s obvious to everyone who notices that these stats are all bullshit. Give it up already.
     
    These stats are coming from govts from all around the world of every ideology. What sort of conspiracy could do that ?

    Replies: @Flying Dutchman

  37. anon[100] • Disclaimer says:

    I live in the Boston area, where vaccination rates are high and where the number of active cases during the past week vastly exceeds the number at any earlier time. If you’d predicted a year ago that these case numbers and these vaccination numbers would occur simultaneously, you would have been flagged on Twitter and Facebook for promoting “dangerous vaccine misinformation”. And a lot of commenters on this blog would have ridiculed you.

    Not to be deterred, the city of Boston is implementing a vaccine mandate for indoor places, starting today. It applies to restaurants, theaters, gyms, bars, conference centers, museums, etc.

    https://www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/file/2021/12/BPHC-Indoor-Vaccination-Order-12-20-21.pdf

    Notice how rarely we hear the phrase “herd immunity” these days.The bureaucrats implementing these policies no longer provide any justification for them beyond perfunctory language about “keeping us all safe”. It’s now blindingly obvious that vaccination does not prevent the spread of the virus at the population level, period. But they don’t acknowledge that or care.

    Ominously, Brookline, a town adjacent to Boston, has set up a similar mandate. Also ominous is that there’s virtually no discussion of what would cause these mandates to be removed.

    This stuff was Alex Jones territory only a couple of years ago. Not anymore. March 2020 will prove to be a watershed moment in American history.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @anon

    C’mon man, the vaccine and mask mandates are very effective for what they are intended for, which has nothing to do with preventing or halting the spread of the virus. They are less than zero effective for that.

    https://bibliotecapleyades.net/imagenes_titulos2/sociopol_globalelite381.gif

  38. Anonymous[302] • Disclaimer says:

    Omicron appears to be from mice? The virus attached well to mice lungs but not human lungs?

    Appears to have sat mutating in mice for a year and a half?

    Is this not suspicious give the fact that mice are laboratory specimens used to study viruses?

    This could be a second, purposeful “lab leak” to end this Pandemic now, before it does too much damage to our Elites.

    I wouldn’t discount that.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Anaonymous
    @Anonymous

    I am shocked more people don’t see this. It is so obvious what they did with Omicron. Blatently apparent.

  39. Thoughts from a regular commenter, below the fold. Has worked in biotech (i.e. can read the primary literature) but not a clinician or a specialist. Pro-vaccine.

    [MORE]

    In my family (all boosted, all infected), one college-age kid and Mrs. ic1000 had sniffles, other college-age kid had 2 days of bad stay-at-home flu symptoms. I had mild flu symptoms, now at Day 12 of being positive by rapid antigen tests. This seems to be the about the range among acquaintances in Rust Belt City, and among extended family.

    > If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder.

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It’s a tendency, not a low of nature (I’ll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    In this regard, the future is unwritten. (See the highly transmissible and highly fatal Spanish Flu of 1918.)

    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic cornonaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system. (Everybody’s adaptive system is integrated with the evolutionarily-old innate immune system, which offers immediate defenses against all viruses, old and new.)

    It takes many days to a few weeks for the adaptive immune system’s defenses (e.g. antibodies, B cells, T cells) to fully activate. For a re-exposure, the adaptive system is already primed, so its reactions are faster and stronger.

    This is the point of vaccination, and the basis of immunity after infection or vaccination.

    At the time of the lab leak (90% prior) or jump from bats (10%), everybody’s immune system was naive. How sick you got depended on (1) circumstances of exposure, maybe, (2) how good your innate system was, (3) how good your adaptive system was, (4) your age — probably 2 & 3 — and (5) your comorbidities.

    As is well known, viruses mutate. It’s a core part of their evolutionary strategy. Part of the “reason” is to evade the adaptive immune system, i.e. open up prior “protected” people to re-infection.

    Omicron’s 32-plus mutations make it really good at this.

    However, thanks to infection and vaccination, very few people in the developed world are naive to any descendant of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. We have a head start on defending against delta, omicron, etc. As a result, the course of disease is milder and shorter.

    This will continue into the future. It is written.

    – – – – –

    In my opinion, the public-health response to the pandemic has been very poor, throughout. To say nothing of the West’s political leadership class (but one expects them to be mostly fools and cowards). The one shining exception has been the extremely rapid development of reasonably safe and reasonably effective vaccines. The commenters who competently and correctly (IMHO) laid out the pro-vaxx arguments on earlier threads are “That Would Be Telling,” “Jack D,” “Rob,” and a few others (apologies for lack of total recall). There’s also the rapid progress in ICU techniques (e.g. pronation), and the development of monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule therapeutics.

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    Anyway, to the present and future.

    Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren’t that bad.

    Policies haven’t changed to reflect this reality. Omicron is going to continue sweeping — this week is probably the peak in North America and Europe — and then recede by early/mid February.

    In February/March, new policies will come into force that deal with the December realities.

    As far as the what and when of the next major variant (phi?): who knows? It will be contagious (by definition, or it won’t be “major”). It may be mild to the few remaining naive people. For everybody else, our immune systems will definitely be primed to counter it, so very likely mild.

    In other words: The Flu, Bro (per 1918/19 and fragile old people every year, that’s not necessarily the same as Just The Flu).

    Resources: Philippe Lemoine isn’t a specialist; he has posted a set of very perceptive and accessible essays on Covid at his website.

    On the 1/3/22 episode of his podcast The Drive, Peter Attia interviewed a pair of dissenting thought leaders, Marty Makary and Zubin Damania. It is excellent, thorough, and timely… but runs 2 hours 45 minutes. They were involved with the Great Barrington statement, and have written numerous opinion pieces and Op-Eds. Speaking as a moderate pro-vaxxer: the world would be a better place if their ideas held sway… probably everybody but repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists (i.e. current US leadership) would agree on that.

    Zvi Moskowitz’ blog “Don’t Worry About the Vase” is thorough, comprehensive, and thoughtful. He’s quite opinionated, and it’s easy to get lost in the details.

    • Agree: Dieter Kief
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @ic1000

    Attia --> fun but not very informative if you have been reading about Omicron since it came on the scene.

    Zvi --> informative in a not-so-useful way but pro-mandate.

    Generally, in this whole pandemic:

    Mises anarchists > Musk > rationalist community > Moldbug > Democrats > globalist elites

    Sailer and Unz probably fall between Moldbug and the rationalist community.

    Here in Japan. case rates going up a lot but not a lot of hospital stress, I think. I have been teaching university classes consistently and today have developed a headache, sore throat, and stuffy nose. Omicron? Don't know..

    , @Sick of Orcs
    @ic1000


    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

     

    The shitshow is the globalist hoax which shut down the world and boosted medical-based tyranny over a flu with a 99% recovery rate.

    Covidhoaxers really do live in an alternate reality where hundreds of people lie dead in the streets, hospitals are filled to overflowing and there are mass casualties from a 99% survivable flu.

    I inhabit a mask-free area and life looks exactly the same as it did in 2018, except for the deliberate supply chain disruptions.

    To date, no one has successfully explained why the vaxxed would have anything to fear from the unvaxxed.

    Replies: @Alrenous

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    , @Dmon
    @ic1000

    "Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren’t that bad."

    South Africa experienced very mild symptoms from Omicron, and their vaccination rate was very low. Their immune systems apparently didn't become non-naive through vaccination. So what are the implications?
    1. They acquired recognition through prior infection, meaning they had alot more cases of "classic" then they thought (which would imply that a downward revision of IFR is in order), or that exposure to other coronaviruses (i.e., the common cold) confers some degree of immunity.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/233018/cells-from-common-colds-cross-protect-against/
    Or:
    2. Omicron is simply a mild strain.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @ic1000


    a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why
     
    Yes. Where's the beef?

    Replies: @ic1000

  40. No. All covid variants are just the common cold, nothing more.

    (A “flu” would be more dangerous than any type of covid.)

  41. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    No, the Biden regime can’t end the panic. First, it’s beyond their influence to rewrite the script of the establishment media. Though the media tends Democratic, they have interests beyond the Party. Second, there are too many people invested in a continuing COVID response, and these people have too much power. The Chicago teachers union just forced the city to back down again in the name of COVID. Why would they give up COVID hysteria to save Joe? He’s a lost cause at this point. Third, the Biden regime needs the emergency powers from COVID to battle other crises, like inflation. They would need to start a war or something to retain these powers without COVID. (Nervously checking on Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran…)

    • Replies: @Rooster12
    @aNewBanner

    I think they’re realizing this particular psy-op has run its course; only the most loyal still subscribe to the official narrative. I believe this administration will half heartedly agree the pandemic is over around March, just in time for a big media push tied into Match Madness. I knew they’d at least drag it out until the Spring, when Fauci said he expected it to be over at that time… the writing was on the wall. They will really start to push the “we must remain vigilant” agenda as they transition into the climate change narrative. If we let our guard down, or let those evil Republicans have any power, we’ll find ourselves in the same situation again comrades!

    What I think will be the most interesting thing to watch is how this has changed social interaction. Will people not go out to eat as often, rather doing carry out or drive up? Will companies continue to allow work from home almost exclusively, or try to pull workers back into the office? Will people continue to hold smaller family get togethers at holidays, or will certain family members only remain family on Facebook and continue to not actually show up at functions?

    Ultimately I think things will get back to close to “normal”, but with the constant message of “always be ready!”, when they decide to roll out a new disease around 2024, many people will be frothing at the mouth to get back into lockdown mode. Many people don’t want to go into work, or family functions, or even get out of the house or their car. The lockdown gives them everything they want and more while still being able to virtue signal online. Our way of life has changed for the foreseeable future, although I do see brief periods of “normal” they will allow; if only to heighten the compliance for the next rollout.

    Replies: @slumber_j

  42. For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim. Not a penny, Steve, not a penny.

    • Replies: @HA
    @aleksander

    "For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim."

    Maybe that's because, PCR cycle criteria notwithstanding, a vaccine that can be detected and measured even in wastewater is a bit more objective than a diagnosis of "toxic masculinity" or "white supremacy". The fact that you can't appreciate that difference says far more about you than about the MSM.

    And when I can sequence gender dysphoria as easily as I can a COVID virus, and when the results of that sequencing are the same regardless of whether I am in Atlanta or in Berlin or even in Wuhan, I'll start taking the MSM's directives on that pressing issue a bit more closely. But even then, I suspect I'll still go on dismissing the likes of you.

    Replies: @Flying Dutchman

    , @AKAHorace
    @aleksander


    For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim. Not a penny, Steve, not a penny
     
    Because sometimes the mainstream view is basically right ? You should neither always believe it or always disbelieve it.
  43. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    I admire Steve and read him every day. I have donated to him in the past, but am probably overdue to send a contribution – I feel a bit like a lapsed Catholic (which I am) in this regard.

    However, I am waiting for him to concede your point, which seemed obvious two years ago.

    In a similar vein, will Cochran ever admit he over-reacted hysterically to COVID? He obviously influenced Steve in this regard.

    Is theirs the first generation who are so terrified of death they don’t want to admit that it will come to them in much the same manner it has come to all preceding generations?

    • Replies: @MLK
    @TorontoTraveller


    I am waiting for him to concede your point, which seemed obvious two years ago.
     
    #MeToo
  44. Why would Covid be any more likely to become more lethal over time than any of the hundreds of other coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, and influenza viruses that regularly cause upper respiratory tract infections that we live with every day?

    For someone whose bread and butter is supposed to be HBD, it’s telling that your articles on the Covid subject demonstrate that you understand absolutely nothing about real-world biology at all. Maybe HBD isn’t quite the Real Science!™ it’s made out to be. Maybe you should just stick to BBB—Blacks Be Bad. You can continue to quote crime statistics, poverty levels, and other social indicators of dysfunction; there is some actual evidence of those things. But stay out of biology.

    The politicization of Covid-19 has been disastrous from the very beginning. Because of this, we now have the highest inflation we’ve seen in 40 years, global supply chains freezing up, and governments seizing the plenary authority to confine, imprison, and economically ruin people over their refusal to take a toxic “vaccine.”

    Did you know, Steve, that before now there had never been an effective vaccine against a coronavirus? Did you know that before now there had never been a successful mRNA vaccine of any kind whatsoever? It seems like somebody who is interested in science would know stuff like that. If not, you could have just looked at Wikipedia, whose entry on the prevention and treatment of animal coronaviruses chillingly reads as follows (emphasis mine):

    Vaccines are available for animal coronaviruses IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.

    Destruction of entire herds. Let that sink in. This is what our Dear Leaders will eventually do to us if we don’t stop this nonsense soon. Furthermore, the very statement reveals the stunning impotence of medical science in this regard. If research cannot discover an effective coronavirus vaccine even for farm animals, which are bred by the millions, and to which most ethical standards don’t apply, what makes you think it can rapidly develop one for humans that is “safe and effective” against a “novel” coronavirus?

    The vaccines are killing people. The politics of Covid are killing people. The economic destruction is killing people. The lack of proper medical care is killing people. The despair and anxiety are killing people. The Covid-19 infection is not killing large numbers of people, no matter how you look at the data.

    What is the bigger risk here? Where is the real danger? With the virus, or with the government? And why doesn’t the internet’s soi-disant “noticer” extraordinaire notice any of this?

    • Agree: Thoughts, Ganderson, Sulu
    • Thanks: usNthem, William Badwhite
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Intelligent Dasein

    This ought to be expanded. Into a feature on Unz.

    , @obwandiyag
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Nice one.

  45. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point

    Do you think it’s credible that the media is in uproar at Boris Johnson over Partygate?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10404315/Downing-Street-held-wine-time-Fridays-week-pandemic-Partygate-scandal-deepens.html

    1. Cromwell’s mom would love this.
    2. I’m rooting for the execution of Johnson and his body displayed prominently in a gibbet until the birds pick the flesh down to the skeleton. Plus another 365 days.
    3. If they can’t pull that off, lock him up in the Tower of London and feed him nothing but starvation ration bread and water.

    * the argument could be made this is not media content on the subject of covid per se but let’s not quibble. No fighting in the war room!

    • Replies: @usNthem
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I’d say forcing him or someone to comb his hair multiple times daily would be a nice start for the torture regimen.

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    What's infuriating about Partygate (and has probably doomed Johnson - the men in grey suits will be visiting any day) is that they were ignoring the rules that they were forcing the rest of us to obey - whether the rules were justified or not is immaterial.

    Amazingly, the head of the Covid Task Force - Johnson's top woman in terms of Covid organisation - thought she could justify a drinks party when she left her job - at a time when you could only have five or ten people at those more permanent leaving events called funerals.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-60009287.amp

  46. It beggars belief that anyone believes anything from any corporate entity regarding the scamdemic let alone parrot it.
    Waste of space.

  47. looking at the graphs in the study, they show cumulative probability of death for even the delta variant as below 0.1%. Isn’t that the low end CFR number for seasonal flu?

    • Replies: @HA
    @Erik L

    "looking at the graphs in the study, they show cumulative probability of death for even the delta variant as below 0.1%. Isn’t that the low end CFR number for seasonal flu?"

    It is indeed, if most of the population is vaxxed, which thankfully it is. For them, it really has been pretty much just-a-flu this past year. When the just-a-flu-bros pop in to remind us that there were more COVID deaths in 2021 than in 2020, they forget to also mention that their own Darwin awards are the primary reason for that.

    That being the case, maybe it would make them feel better if we changed their cause of death listing from COVID to "irony".

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Erik L

  48. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    “Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration–in desperate need of a win–will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I’d be willing to put money on it. If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.”

    Could already be happening. Is the groundwork being laid? 🤔

    As to your report of your symptoms, I had something similar this week. Hardly any worse than your common cold 🤧.

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @slumber_j
    @mmack

    Yes, I've of course noticed a lot of similar stuff being put out there since my epiphany. Confirmation bias or actual confirmation? Or as usual, a bit of both?

  49. This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It’s a tendency, not a low of nature (I’ll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    I’d really like to see this. I think that people, even evolutionary biologists are thinking in terms of “the virus” maximizing its fitness. Except there is no “the virus.” There are millions-billions of individual genomes in an infection. Most of them differ from most of the others in small detail. In one person’s infection, the viruses cannot cooperate to decide not to infect the lower respiratory tract. Genomes that end up lower in the respiratory tract and happen to be okay-ish to good at infecting that tissue replicate. Eventually getting deep in your lungs, even though “the virus” would benefit from keeping you walking around and sneezing/breathing/snotting virus on everything.

    The only way I think a virus could evolve to be less deadly is when the virus is not killing you by turning your lungs into goo. Instead, your immune reaction is killing you. Specifically, the cellular/tissue antiviral response. Within each cell, especially if it’s only infected by one virion, every genome that can avoid some/all/delay the cellular antiviral response benefits. Also, avoid cell-mediated immunity and antibody-dependent cytotoxicity. This assumes that you have some other way of beating the infection before it actually does turn you to goo. Not sure if “loose” virus in the tissue or lumen counts. This strikes me as a tragedy of the commons situation. Genomes that limit their reproduction “for the good of the species (infection)” will just get swamped by genomes that pumped out as many copies of themselves as possible.

    Am I totally off?

    If I remember correctly, we have lots of adaptations for clearing viral infections. Adaptations are usually crafted by selection. I don’t think avoiding “feel cruddy for a week” would have given us so many adaptations to deal with infections. People with severe immunodeficiencies, like “bubble boy” can die of “opportunistic” infections, which implies to me that infections aren’t limiting their virulence, each of us is limiting their virulence.

    I’m interested in seeing where I (or a bunch of virologists) have made mistakes. Fingers crossed that I’m wrong. It would sure be nice if viruses limited their virulence for us.

    • Replies: @Rob
    @Rob

    I meant that comment to be a reply to ic1000.

    , @ic1000
    @Rob

    > I’d really like to see [a link to an article about pathogens evolving to become milder].

    Rob, I was trying for a top-line summary, and your understanding of the mechanics is already nuanced.

    Here is a press release from Northeastern University, touting their faculty.


    “If you think about a virus, what’s the purpose? What’s the virus trying to do?” asks [Prof.] Jared Auclair...

    It’s trying to stay alive, he says. And “if the virus kills someone, if it kills the host, it dies with the host. So it totally defeats the purpose.”

    Because the goal of a virus is to survive, replicate, and spread, it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly. There are exceptions and other factors, but in general, says Auclair, that’s what virologists expect to see occur with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
     
    Although a virulent strain of political correctness has infected Nature's editors and compromised its integrity, its News Features are still generally informative on technical matters. This 12/7/21 article by Ewen Calloway hits on the point we are discussing. (It generally holds up well, five weeks later.)

    Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson, says the virus must balance its ability to replicate to high levels in people’s airways with the need to keep them healthy enough to infect new hosts. “The virus doesn’t want to put someone in bed and make them sick enough that they’re not encountering a number of other people,” he says. One way for the virus to thread this needle would be to evolve to grow to lower levels in people’s airways, but maintain infections for a longer period of time, increasing the number of new hosts exposed to the virus, says [Andrew Rambaut of U. Edinburgh]. “Ultimately there’s going to be trade-off between how much virus you can produce and how quickly you elicit the immune system.” By lying low, SARS-CoV-2 could ensure its continued spread.

    If the virus evolved in this way, it might become less severe, but that outcome is far from certain. “There’s this assumption that something more transmissible becomes less virulent. I don’t think that’s the position we should take,” says [Francois Balloux of UCL]. Variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta have been linked to heightened rates of hospitalization and death — potentially because they grow to such high levels in people’s airways. The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.”
     
    Even formal physical laws such as "Wokeness ruins everything" can manifest themselves unevenly. Here is a 1/9/22 interview from thoroughly corrupt NPR Weekend Edition that offers some insights.

    Interviewer Ayesha Rascoe: So one theory that we've heard a lot about recently is that viruses tend to mutate to become weaker over time. Is that right? And if so, why?

    Computational biologist Jennie Lavine: The currency for viruses is they want to be as transmissible as possible. From their evolutionary perspective, they don't really care whether or not they're causing disease in you as long as you're going to transmit it. So if a virus can make more particles, it's probably going to do better. But if at some point, it's making so many particles, replicating so much inside you that it's making you super sick, at that point, you might not go out. You might not go to a party. You might not go to work. Worst-case scenario [from the virus' perspective] - you might die. That can lead to this relationship between how severe the disease is and how transmissible it is such that when a disease gets too severe, it's not good for the virus anymore.

    RASCOE: Tell us about the history of the common cold. It killed people. When was that? And why did it evolve the way it does, where today it's just the common cold?

    LAVINE: In the late 1800s, there was a pandemic which was termed at the time the Russian flu. People have gone back now, and there's two lines of evidence that suggest it's possible that that was actually the origin of one of the four endemic coronaviruses, Human Coronavirus OC43. Everybody listening to this show has been infected with OC43. The Russian flu killed millions of people, it was huge. And the symptoms were surprisingly similar to what we are seeing today with SARS-CoV-2. It included things like neurological symptoms, that are not necessarily associated with what we think of as the flu. It included loss of sense of smell and taste at times. It's a pretty interesting hypothesis.
     

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Rob

    , @anon
    @Rob

    There is a very misleading underlying and unstated analogy that is confusing people. Namely. mammals and aggressive predators evolve like on the animal channel. They fight it out.
    Viruses, on the other hand become more contagious. They don't fight it out in cell to cell combat. Meaning, original Covid was simply wiped out, by mechanisms somewhat like herd immunity. Same with alpha. Same with delta.
    They are saying that omicron is as contagious as measles, or more so.
    The public health PR insisted in allying binary labels to treatments and mitigation. They work or they don't.
    The variants developed in Africa and India, so the binary good/evil class based media narrative was always absurd.
    And there are limits to mutation. Measles seems to be about the limit of contagion. And at some point, it mutates to something else. No longer Covid.

    But it means that all the interventions, including immunity through infection worked. Wiping out the sessile variants. Until the next leap in contagion.
    And all the bloviation over what worked and what didn't...is only meaningful at the variant level.

  50. @ic1000
    Thoughts from a regular commenter, below the fold. Has worked in biotech (i.e. can read the primary literature) but not a clinician or a specialist. Pro-vaccine.

    In my family (all boosted, all infected), one college-age kid and Mrs. ic1000 had sniffles, other college-age kid had 2 days of bad stay-at-home flu symptoms. I had mild flu symptoms, now at Day 12 of being positive by rapid antigen tests. This seems to be the about the range among acquaintances in Rust Belt City, and among extended family.

    > If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder.

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It's a tendency, not a low of nature (I'll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    In this regard, the future is unwritten. (See the highly transmissible and highly fatal Spanish Flu of 1918.)

    A critical factor is the state of people's immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic cornonaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody's adaptive immune system. (Everybody's adaptive system is integrated with the evolutionarily-old innate immune system, which offers immediate defenses against all viruses, old and new.)

    It takes many days to a few weeks for the adaptive immune system's defenses (e.g. antibodies, B cells, T cells) to fully activate. For a re-exposure, the adaptive system is already primed, so its reactions are faster and stronger.

    This is the point of vaccination, and the basis of immunity after infection or vaccination.

    At the time of the lab leak (90% prior) or jump from bats (10%), everybody's immune system was naive. How sick you got depended on (1) circumstances of exposure, maybe, (2) how good your innate system was, (3) how good your adaptive system was, (4) your age -- probably 2 & 3 -- and (5) your comorbidities.

    As is well known, viruses mutate. It's a core part of their evolutionary strategy. Part of the "reason" is to evade the adaptive immune system, i.e. open up prior "protected" people to re-infection.

    Omicron's 32-plus mutations make it really good at this.

    However, thanks to infection and vaccination, very few people in the developed world are naive to any descendant of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. We have a head start on defending against delta, omicron, etc. As a result, the course of disease is milder and shorter.

    This will continue into the future. It is written.

    - - - - -

    In my opinion, the public-health response to the pandemic has been very poor, throughout. To say nothing of the West's political leadership class (but one expects them to be mostly fools and cowards). The one shining exception has been the extremely rapid development of reasonably safe and reasonably effective vaccines. The commenters who competently and correctly (IMHO) laid out the pro-vaxx arguments on earlier threads are "That Would Be Telling," "Jack D," "Rob," and a few others (apologies for lack of total recall). There's also the rapid progress in ICU techniques (e.g. pronation), and the development of monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule therapeutics.

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    Anyway, to the present and future.

    Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren't that bad.

    Policies haven't changed to reflect this reality. Omicron is going to continue sweeping -- this week is probably the peak in North America and Europe -- and then recede by early/mid February.

    In February/March, new policies will come into force that deal with the December realities.

    As far as the what and when of the next major variant (phi?): who knows? It will be contagious (by definition, or it won't be "major"). It may be mild to the few remaining naive people. For everybody else, our immune systems will definitely be primed to counter it, so very likely mild.

    In other words: The Flu, Bro (per 1918/19 and fragile old people every year, that's not necessarily the same as Just The Flu).

    Resources: Philippe Lemoine isn't a specialist; he has posted a set of very perceptive and accessible essays on Covid at his website.

    On the 1/3/22 episode of his podcast The Drive, Peter Attia interviewed a pair of dissenting thought leaders, Marty Makary and Zubin Damania. It is excellent, thorough, and timely... but runs 2 hours 45 minutes. They were involved with the Great Barrington statement, and have written numerous opinion pieces and Op-Eds. Speaking as a moderate pro-vaxxer: the world would be a better place if their ideas held sway... probably everybody but repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists (i.e. current US leadership) would agree on that.

    Zvi Moskowitz' blog "Don't Worry About the Vase" is thorough, comprehensive, and thoughtful. He's quite opinionated, and it's easy to get lost in the details.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Sick of Orcs, @That Would Be Telling, @Dmon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Attia –> fun but not very informative if you have been reading about Omicron since it came on the scene.

    Zvi –> informative in a not-so-useful way but pro-mandate.

    Generally, in this whole pandemic:

    Mises anarchists > Musk > rationalist community > Moldbug > Democrats > globalist elites

    Sailer and Unz probably fall between Moldbug and the rationalist community.

    Here in Japan. case rates going up a lot but not a lot of hospital stress, I think. I have been teaching university classes consistently and today have developed a headache, sore throat, and stuffy nose. Omicron? Don’t know..

  51. @Dieter Kief

    Then again, we've been hopeful before.
     

    Hope brings eternity! - Irish proverb, heheh.

    On the other hand, if it’s just random luck that this more infectious variant happens to be less dangerous, then the future is unwritten.
     
    The expression random luck sounds a bit off here. - Humans and virusses coexist since ages - this system is set up to work, not to destroy itself by eradicating one part of the delicate balance that it represents.

    Bottom line: Until proven wrong, assume that life knows its way ( - or else look back with a smile to Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz' idea of the prestabilized harmony (in: Monadologie, 1720) that - supports / surrounds - everything (= all that there is (and/or - - ever was...).

    - Always look at the bright side of Omicron!

    Replies: @El Dato, @John Milton’s Ghost

    True, yet….
    The geological record provides a lot of evidence that mass extinction is a regular occurrence. The reason we have fossil fuels is because of one of those die-offs. While I am sanguine that the more recent pattern of coadaptation will hold, you never know.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @John Milton’s Ghost


    The reason we have fossil fuels is because of one of those die-offs. While I am sanguine that the more recent pattern of coadaptation will hold, you never know.
     
    If we would know, or would be sure, there'd be no place for - - - hope.

    (What would make our lives poorer - and duller too. - To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence (existentielle Geworfenheit). - Total relief reserved for the heavenly creatures - up in patradise).

    Replies: @Adept

  52. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Frankly, it was the biggest example of narcissism and “recency bias” that the world has ever seen.

    It wasn’t the actual virus that was (gasp) UNPRECEDENTED! It was the ridiculous overreaction to it.

    • Agree: usNthem, Colin Wright
  53. Hate to be a buzzkill, but Omicron is still deadly serious for people with 10 or more comorbidities.

    • Troll: JimDandy
    • Replies: @Matthew Kelly
    @JimDandy

    I'm happy to see you tagged yourself as a troll. Hard to find that kind of honesty in commenters these days lol.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    , @Sam Malone
    @JimDandy

    Jim Dandy, are you hot and nasty?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBElipPiMuM

    Replies: @JimDandy

  54. At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omnicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply.

    Were this October 2020, the media would be screaming at Trump about this at every opportunity. Biden gets a pass.

    WASHINGTON — December 27, 2021 — President Biden claimed Monday that his administration “didn’t reject” an expert plan in October that called for mass distribution of free at-home COVID-19 tests before Christmas — even though his team declined to adopt the idea. . . .

    Biden has repeatedly expressed regret about not acting more quickly to make free tests more widely available. Last week, he announced a plan to make 500 million tests available to Americans through direct order, but the initiative won’t begin until January. . . .

    Biden said at a virtual meeting with governors on Monday that he’d have “gone harder, quicker” to distribute COVID-19 tests if he’d expected a surge in infections.

    Still, the Narrative press will give Biden a pass.

    During one of Biden’s town hall campaign appearances, he blamed Trump for every single person who had died from COVID-19: “If the president had done his job, had done his job from the beginning, all the people would still be alive. All the people — I’m not making this up. Just look at the data. Look at the data.”

    Confused old man who occasionally wanders out of seclusion and randomly yells cannot be held accountable.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    @Harry Baldwin

    Biden is actually causing the monoclonal antibody shortage.

    https://www.flgov.com/2022/01/03/governor-ron-desantis-to-biden-administration-release-stranglehold-on-life-saving-monoclonal-antibodies/

  55. @ic1000
    Thoughts from a regular commenter, below the fold. Has worked in biotech (i.e. can read the primary literature) but not a clinician or a specialist. Pro-vaccine.

    In my family (all boosted, all infected), one college-age kid and Mrs. ic1000 had sniffles, other college-age kid had 2 days of bad stay-at-home flu symptoms. I had mild flu symptoms, now at Day 12 of being positive by rapid antigen tests. This seems to be the about the range among acquaintances in Rust Belt City, and among extended family.

    > If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder.

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It's a tendency, not a low of nature (I'll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    In this regard, the future is unwritten. (See the highly transmissible and highly fatal Spanish Flu of 1918.)

    A critical factor is the state of people's immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic cornonaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody's adaptive immune system. (Everybody's adaptive system is integrated with the evolutionarily-old innate immune system, which offers immediate defenses against all viruses, old and new.)

    It takes many days to a few weeks for the adaptive immune system's defenses (e.g. antibodies, B cells, T cells) to fully activate. For a re-exposure, the adaptive system is already primed, so its reactions are faster and stronger.

    This is the point of vaccination, and the basis of immunity after infection or vaccination.

    At the time of the lab leak (90% prior) or jump from bats (10%), everybody's immune system was naive. How sick you got depended on (1) circumstances of exposure, maybe, (2) how good your innate system was, (3) how good your adaptive system was, (4) your age -- probably 2 & 3 -- and (5) your comorbidities.

    As is well known, viruses mutate. It's a core part of their evolutionary strategy. Part of the "reason" is to evade the adaptive immune system, i.e. open up prior "protected" people to re-infection.

    Omicron's 32-plus mutations make it really good at this.

    However, thanks to infection and vaccination, very few people in the developed world are naive to any descendant of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. We have a head start on defending against delta, omicron, etc. As a result, the course of disease is milder and shorter.

    This will continue into the future. It is written.

    - - - - -

    In my opinion, the public-health response to the pandemic has been very poor, throughout. To say nothing of the West's political leadership class (but one expects them to be mostly fools and cowards). The one shining exception has been the extremely rapid development of reasonably safe and reasonably effective vaccines. The commenters who competently and correctly (IMHO) laid out the pro-vaxx arguments on earlier threads are "That Would Be Telling," "Jack D," "Rob," and a few others (apologies for lack of total recall). There's also the rapid progress in ICU techniques (e.g. pronation), and the development of monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule therapeutics.

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    Anyway, to the present and future.

    Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren't that bad.

    Policies haven't changed to reflect this reality. Omicron is going to continue sweeping -- this week is probably the peak in North America and Europe -- and then recede by early/mid February.

    In February/March, new policies will come into force that deal with the December realities.

    As far as the what and when of the next major variant (phi?): who knows? It will be contagious (by definition, or it won't be "major"). It may be mild to the few remaining naive people. For everybody else, our immune systems will definitely be primed to counter it, so very likely mild.

    In other words: The Flu, Bro (per 1918/19 and fragile old people every year, that's not necessarily the same as Just The Flu).

    Resources: Philippe Lemoine isn't a specialist; he has posted a set of very perceptive and accessible essays on Covid at his website.

    On the 1/3/22 episode of his podcast The Drive, Peter Attia interviewed a pair of dissenting thought leaders, Marty Makary and Zubin Damania. It is excellent, thorough, and timely... but runs 2 hours 45 minutes. They were involved with the Great Barrington statement, and have written numerous opinion pieces and Op-Eds. Speaking as a moderate pro-vaxxer: the world would be a better place if their ideas held sway... probably everybody but repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists (i.e. current US leadership) would agree on that.

    Zvi Moskowitz' blog "Don't Worry About the Vase" is thorough, comprehensive, and thoughtful. He's quite opinionated, and it's easy to get lost in the details.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Sick of Orcs, @That Would Be Telling, @Dmon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    The shitshow is the globalist hoax which shut down the world and boosted medical-based tyranny over a flu with a 99% recovery rate.

    Covidhoaxers really do live in an alternate reality where hundreds of people lie dead in the streets, hospitals are filled to overflowing and there are mass casualties from a 99% survivable flu.

    I inhabit a mask-free area and life looks exactly the same as it did in 2018, except for the deliberate supply chain disruptions.

    To date, no one has successfully explained why the vaxxed would have anything to fear from the unvaxxed.

    • Replies: @Alrenous
    @Sick of Orcs

    From their side, nobody has explained. From our side, ID did it in this thread, which constitutes a spot check of frequency. https://www.unz.com/isteve/is-omicron-just-the-flu-bro/#comment-5119954

  56. @Rob

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It’s a tendency, not a low of nature (I’ll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).
     
    I’d really like to see this. I think that people, even evolutionary biologists are thinking in terms of “the virus” maximizing its fitness. Except there is no “the virus.” There are millions-billions of individual genomes in an infection. Most of them differ from most of the others in small detail. In one person’s infection, the viruses cannot cooperate to decide not to infect the lower respiratory tract. Genomes that end up lower in the respiratory tract and happen to be okay-ish to good at infecting that tissue replicate. Eventually getting deep in your lungs, even though “the virus” would benefit from keeping you walking around and sneezing/breathing/snotting virus on everything.

    The only way I think a virus could evolve to be less deadly is when the virus is not killing you by turning your lungs into goo. Instead, your immune reaction is killing you. Specifically, the cellular/tissue antiviral response. Within each cell, especially if it’s only infected by one virion, every genome that can avoid some/all/delay the cellular antiviral response benefits. Also, avoid cell-mediated immunity and antibody-dependent cytotoxicity. This assumes that you have some other way of beating the infection before it actually does turn you to goo. Not sure if “loose” virus in the tissue or lumen counts. This strikes me as a tragedy of the commons situation. Genomes that limit their reproduction “for the good of the species (infection)” will just get swamped by genomes that pumped out as many copies of themselves as possible.

    Am I totally off?

    If I remember correctly, we have lots of adaptations for clearing viral infections. Adaptations are usually crafted by selection. I don’t think avoiding “feel cruddy for a week” would have given us so many adaptations to deal with infections. People with severe immunodeficiencies, like “bubble boy” can die of “opportunistic” infections, which implies to me that infections aren’t limiting their virulence, each of us is limiting their virulence.

    I’m interested in seeing where I (or a bunch of virologists) have made mistakes. Fingers crossed that I’m wrong. It would sure be nice if viruses limited their virulence for us.

    Replies: @Rob, @ic1000, @anon

    I meant that comment to be a reply to ic1000.

  57. Stevie and Ronnie’s continued efforts to shill the threat of the coof to unsuspecting Unz readers should tell anyone that California cannot be saved. Even the ones that seem sane will turn on you eventually.

  58. I was roasted a few weeks back here by a few commenters when you asked for predictions – I said Biden admin misreads omicron and predicted we could see 10k per day deaths..

    My math was off – I think we will easily exceed 5k US deaths at peak, breaking the previous record set on Jan 12, 2021 (~4100 I believe).

    Note this grim anniversary was not mentioned in any recent news coverage.

    I’m curious is anyone knows whether there is a Biden plan B for the pandemic now that vaccine mandates were bounced by Supreme Court?

    Is Biden warpspeeding new vaccines – perhaps one based on Omicron?

    Is Biden using the defense production act to produce antivirals and therapies that are documented to improve outcomes?

    I noted that CDV mask guidance was revised yesterday- the better part of two years have passed that many shared these observations.

    The reality is this – the only tool we have are vaccines that were formulated around the earliest version of the virus. The virus is evolving with each infection and its clear that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, while improving outcomes, its not halting infection significantly and in many cases isnt resulting in what most of us would call “mild” infections. My young neighbor – 38, physically active with a young family to support – was laid low by the virus for almost 2 weeks recently. He was double vaxxed and boosted more than 3 weeks before.

    I’m also curious what the Biden team would do if Pi or whatever emerges and tears through a key industrial or materials nation, or if it emerges as more infectious and also with increased virulence from declining vaccine efficiency.

    I think we can all agree lockdowns were useless. Perhaps even increased spread – and we don’t want to live on fear.

    Are we all ready to have a severe cold and flu like symptoms every year like clockwork? That seems to be what we are hearing from the “let er rip” crowd (that Nicolas Nassim Taleb refers to as “psychopaths”).

    I haven’t had a cold in 15 years and never had the flu. I had two grandparents die from “colds.”

    I think Biden has given up on any numbers of fronts. The worst is yet to come.

    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @Paul Rise

    A coherent Plan B would be a pre-order of 1m doses of an Omicron optimized jab, just in case Omicron or Son of Omicron turns out to be really dangerous to some segment of the population. Most likely we'll just toss them but that's the price of preparedness. Of course Biden won't do that because he's a senile fool.

    You've been watching too much CNN FearPorn if you seriously proposed a running average of 10,000 daily Covid-attributable deaths as a peak for this wave. Between the jabs (which have their place with old/vulnerable people), new drugs, Omicron's relatively benign nature and our having culled the vulnerable from the herd these past two years, from early December it was clear that our impending Omicron wave would impose a morbidity and mortality burden whose peak was no higher than what we saw a year ago. I stand by that prediction even now.

    , @3g4me
    @Paul Rise

    @39 Paul Rise: "I had two grandparents die from "colds."

    Shocking, isn't it, how the elderly all eventually die? And it usually begins with an upper respiratory infection. Cold, flu, pneumonia. When they thought they'd all live forever. Remember, if it saves even one 97 year old life with half a dozen comorbidities . . . then it's vital that we all STAY SAFE.

    I hope the worst is yet to come, sugar britches - haven't yet seen those piles of bodies I was promised.

    , @Colin Wright
    @Paul Rise

    '...Is Biden warpspeeding new vaccines – perhaps one based on Omicron?...'

    It shouldn't be too hard. After all, as we've already seen, the 'vaccine' doesn't have to work or anything. That'd be a nice add-on -- but it's not essential.

    , @Patrick McNally
    @Paul Rise

    February 12, 2021, had 5,463 deaths in the USA according to official stats. Make of that what you will.

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    @Paul Rise


    Are we all ready to have a severe cold and flu like symptoms every year like clockwork?
     
    Millions of people do get a cold or flu every year, "like clockwork." It generally happens in the wintertime. What are you so afraid of, Shirley?
  59. Like many others here. I’m sure. Almost ever one I know, vaccinated or not, has had it these last two weeks. No one needed to visit a doctor even. Some were young and healthy others old and morbidly obese. It is irritating but nothing to shut the world down over.

  60. Since March 2020 there have been 119 cases of Covid among members of Congress. They are not a young population. Nonetheless, the only member to die was Rep. Ron Wright of Texas, who already had been dying of lung cancer.

    As of a month ago, largely pre-Omicron, there had been 80 deaths among member of the US military, out of 258,800 cases … that’s a death rate of 0.03%.

    Way back in October 2020, before any vaccines, my employer reported ten deaths out of 19,816 cases among employees, for a death rate of 0.05%.

    As of May 2021 there were 700,000+ Covid cases on college campuses and, according to the NYT, more than 100 deaths, with the “vast majority” of deaths among college employees rather than students. Using these admittedly approximate figures that’s a death rate of 0.015%, with the death rate for students being even lower.

    My take on all this: anyone who’s squeakin’ and squawkin’ about how this is a Guaranteed Death Sentence and that we must stay locked indoor forever should be declared paranoid schizophrenic and thrown in the funny farm.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @prosa123

    As of September of 2021, 18 months into COVID and 9 months into a national vaccination campaign, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said that "more than 20" NASA employees had died of COVID.

    https://www.wmfe.org/bidens-covid-19-vaccine-push-includes-62400-nasa-workers/189944

    That's out of a total Civil Servant workforce of about 17,000. Assuming "more than 20" would mean "21 - 30", that's a total fatality rate of 0.11% - 0.18%. If that number also includes NASA's workforce of in-house contractors that number would be even lower. And there is no telling how many of those people died "of COVID" or "with COVID". NASA's workforce is not especially young or healthy.

    This was hardly a plague that justified the insane responses that were imposed on society in its name.

    , @John Johnson
    @prosa123

    My take on all this: anyone who’s squeakin’ and squawkin’ about how this is a Guaranteed Death Sentence and that we must stay locked indoor forever should be declared paranoid schizophrenic and thrown in the funny farm.

    Fatalities were never the main problem with Delta. I really don't care about what CNN decides to exaggerate. My opinions are based on medical data. I don't watch cable news of any type.

    The problem was that anti-vaxxers would end up on a ventilator when there are only so many beds available. Then they come out with damaged lungs and need drugs and physical therapy for months. It's extremely expensive in comparison to getting the vaccine. Many of these patients will easily rack up over half a million in medical bills. Some of them are too damaged to return to work and will be on disability.

    Hospitals normally operate close to capacity. A pandemic can overload them and that is exactly what happened with Delta. My local hospital was overloaded and there were actually patients waiting in ambulances for a bed.

    With Omicron the cases are less severe and the hospital stays are shorter. In some areas ventilators aren't even being used.

    None of this should be a surprise to anyone that has read about viruses. This is what often happens over time which is that a less severe but more contagious mutation takes over. It spreads faster and then provides protection against the more severe strain. But unfortunately this is only a general rule as they can also mutate and turn deadly again. It is good however that Omicron spreads quickly since that makes burn-out more likely. We want it to spread and burn out before another mutation starts circulating among waning protection.

    My guess is that this is the end of the pandemic and the mandates will be dropped. I correctly predicted the Delta surge and decline unlike all of the anti-vaxx leaders. So we will see if I can go 2/2.

    Replies: @peterike

  61. I’m in bed with COVID as I type this, presumably it’s Omicron; symptoms started yesterday. 59 YO male, double vaccinated in April, no booster.

    Last night was rough. So much pain and discomfort in my sinus region that I could not sleep. Today seems to be better; we’ll see what tonight holds as these things always seem to worsen at night.

    From what I can tell based on others in my circle who’ve had it, yes Omicron is just the flu bro.

  62. In California 90% of adults are vaccinated , nonetheless in a few days there will be more people hospitalized with COVID than ever before. 92% of people with Omicron are fully vaccinated. But do not lose heart. Omicron is just like a booster. No more jabs needed. Omicron will end the pandemic.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Travis

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/18/fourth-covid-vaccine-still-doesnt-stop-omicron-israeli-study/

    Vax all you want, but it won’t stop Omicron.

    Even Pfizer admits the vaccines offer little to no protection against the new variants which is the reason they will have a new 3 Dose vaccine available in March.
    Will players be required to get the Omicron vaccine in order to compete at the Australian Open next year? Will Hawaii require all Americans get inoculated with the new Omicron Vaccine this summer? Or will they still require 3 doses of the obsolete Alpha vaccine ?

  63. @ic1000
    Thoughts from a regular commenter, below the fold. Has worked in biotech (i.e. can read the primary literature) but not a clinician or a specialist. Pro-vaccine.

    In my family (all boosted, all infected), one college-age kid and Mrs. ic1000 had sniffles, other college-age kid had 2 days of bad stay-at-home flu symptoms. I had mild flu symptoms, now at Day 12 of being positive by rapid antigen tests. This seems to be the about the range among acquaintances in Rust Belt City, and among extended family.

    > If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder.

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It's a tendency, not a low of nature (I'll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    In this regard, the future is unwritten. (See the highly transmissible and highly fatal Spanish Flu of 1918.)

    A critical factor is the state of people's immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic cornonaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody's adaptive immune system. (Everybody's adaptive system is integrated with the evolutionarily-old innate immune system, which offers immediate defenses against all viruses, old and new.)

    It takes many days to a few weeks for the adaptive immune system's defenses (e.g. antibodies, B cells, T cells) to fully activate. For a re-exposure, the adaptive system is already primed, so its reactions are faster and stronger.

    This is the point of vaccination, and the basis of immunity after infection or vaccination.

    At the time of the lab leak (90% prior) or jump from bats (10%), everybody's immune system was naive. How sick you got depended on (1) circumstances of exposure, maybe, (2) how good your innate system was, (3) how good your adaptive system was, (4) your age -- probably 2 & 3 -- and (5) your comorbidities.

    As is well known, viruses mutate. It's a core part of their evolutionary strategy. Part of the "reason" is to evade the adaptive immune system, i.e. open up prior "protected" people to re-infection.

    Omicron's 32-plus mutations make it really good at this.

    However, thanks to infection and vaccination, very few people in the developed world are naive to any descendant of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. We have a head start on defending against delta, omicron, etc. As a result, the course of disease is milder and shorter.

    This will continue into the future. It is written.

    - - - - -

    In my opinion, the public-health response to the pandemic has been very poor, throughout. To say nothing of the West's political leadership class (but one expects them to be mostly fools and cowards). The one shining exception has been the extremely rapid development of reasonably safe and reasonably effective vaccines. The commenters who competently and correctly (IMHO) laid out the pro-vaxx arguments on earlier threads are "That Would Be Telling," "Jack D," "Rob," and a few others (apologies for lack of total recall). There's also the rapid progress in ICU techniques (e.g. pronation), and the development of monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule therapeutics.

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    Anyway, to the present and future.

    Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren't that bad.

    Policies haven't changed to reflect this reality. Omicron is going to continue sweeping -- this week is probably the peak in North America and Europe -- and then recede by early/mid February.

    In February/March, new policies will come into force that deal with the December realities.

    As far as the what and when of the next major variant (phi?): who knows? It will be contagious (by definition, or it won't be "major"). It may be mild to the few remaining naive people. For everybody else, our immune systems will definitely be primed to counter it, so very likely mild.

    In other words: The Flu, Bro (per 1918/19 and fragile old people every year, that's not necessarily the same as Just The Flu).

    Resources: Philippe Lemoine isn't a specialist; he has posted a set of very perceptive and accessible essays on Covid at his website.

    On the 1/3/22 episode of his podcast The Drive, Peter Attia interviewed a pair of dissenting thought leaders, Marty Makary and Zubin Damania. It is excellent, thorough, and timely... but runs 2 hours 45 minutes. They were involved with the Great Barrington statement, and have written numerous opinion pieces and Op-Eds. Speaking as a moderate pro-vaxxer: the world would be a better place if their ideas held sway... probably everybody but repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists (i.e. current US leadership) would agree on that.

    Zvi Moskowitz' blog "Don't Worry About the Vase" is thorough, comprehensive, and thoughtful. He's quite opinionated, and it's easy to get lost in the details.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Sick of Orcs, @That Would Be Telling, @Dmon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that’s also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC’s editing of the CDC director’s January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek “Things I Won’t Work With” Lowe, “It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus.” And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that “job.” As 1918-9 indeed showed that’s not written in stone but it’s something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:

    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.

    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I’ve come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can’t change (much) or “the virus won’t virus”), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, “neutralizing” antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about “a harmless endemic cold,” the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause “the common cold,” and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I’m pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of “the common cold” when it’s milder.

    And we aren’t, can’t yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it’s less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I’m continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it’s now dismantled and thus I assume one reason “Biden” turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It’s also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That’s unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    “repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists” Yeah, that’s not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I’m sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that’s preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I’m assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    • LOL: 3g4me
    • Troll: Twodees Partain
    • Replies: @Peterike
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks for that tiresome reiteration of the conventional wisdom. Do you ever expose yourself to other ideas? Enjoy your useless N95 mask.

    , @onetwothree
    @That Would Be Telling

    Goddamn I wish your Pfizer shares would vest and you would shut the fuck up already.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @That Would Be Telling


    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers
     
    Don't worry. There's still time. We're still all pullin' for ya', "That would be telling".

    Then there is this guy:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/business/media/carlos-tejada-dead.html

    Of course there's no proof that Mr. Tejada died from the vaccine. He just happened to die within one day of getting a booster shot.

    It's not like the media would ever report that an alarmingly high number of people were dying from the vaccine. They are entirely in the pocket of big pharma. That is not something they would ever say if it were true.


    ..........., and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.
     
    Excuse me? Who is more desperate and vitriolic? The only people I see throwing vitriol around are the politicians and celebrities who publicly denounce unvaccinated people and want them to 1.) be locked up, 2.) be denied medical care, 3.) starve and/or 4.) die.

    By the way, your term "anti-vaxxer" is bulls**t. That term now includes anybody who opposes mandated vaccines.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @SunBakedSuburb
    @That Would Be Telling

    "We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of anti-vaxxers ..."

    I'm not an anti-vaxxer. I spent the last year collecting information on the mRNA vaccine and decided it was not for me. I believe the real injuries from the vaccine will come five to ten years out, specifically in the form of immune system destruction.

    "they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic"

    This is projection: as the mRNA vaccines continue to fail in stopping infection-transmission, and the vaccinated begin to join the unvaccinated in hospital wards, the cult -- primarily comprised of advanced degreed upper middle class managerial types -- that surrounds the pandemic/Holy Vaccine/St. Fauci is becoming uglier and more dangerously deranged as the days pass. Whilst viewing this parade of grotesques I can't decide whether to laugh, cry, or barf.

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @That Would Be Telling

    "Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I’m assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement."

    TWBS, you're back earlier than expected - I hope you enjoyed your vacation. I see your employer Pfizer sent you to fanboi for the Moronic clot$hot$ debuting in six weeks. Boost baby boost!

    So when people are getting the Moronic shots en masse prolly April/May, what will Pfizer name the variant - aka the dis-ease and death - caused by your defective product? Y'all sticking with IHU? Holla back, my shill!

    , @obwandiyag
    @That Would Be Telling

    This screed is a perfect example of Frank Luntz trademarked diversion talking point number fourteen: load proof on about one little insignificant detail, accuse those who suggest this detail is true of gross stupidity, say this one thing proves they are wrong about everything, and deliberately and assiduously draw away attention from the elephant in the room.

    Who cares what the virus is or isn't. I mean, it's just the flu, but who cares if it isn't. The truth of the matter doesn't matter.

    What matters is, the vaccines are killing people. And, even more importantly than that, they are sickening everybody, making every vaccinated person's immune system weaker. And, more important that that, down the road apiece, 5, 10, 20 years, that damage will shorten every vaccinated person's life, and cripple any survivors.

    Replies: @Old Prude

    , @Jimbo
    @That Would Be Telling

    Shut the fuck up, Donny.

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @That Would Be Telling


    We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead
     
    Actually, the vaxxed are dropping dead, they just don't know it because the reported statistics are a lie. For example, if you die within 30 days of being vaccinated you are counted as an "unvaccinated" death. (On the theory that the vax doesn't kick in for 30 days). Moreover, the VAERS system is a joke and doesn't capture even a tiny fraction of actual vax deaths and injuries.

    Data from countries with better records show that all cause mortality is actually worse for the vaxxed.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adults-under-60

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccines-dont-stop-covid-hospitalizations

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    , @Mike Tre
    @That Would Be Telling

    "We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead "

    Normal healthy people never dropped dead from your unremarkable virus to begin with, making the above statement a moot point, true or not.

    You would have made a fine addition to Stalin's inner circle.

  64. Just some casual observations that my be of some interest-

    I work in a hospital in a large metropolitan area. The number of patients in the hospital for Covid-19 is far, far higher than at any time since the beginning of the Covid outbreak. I do not know how the newer cases in the hospital compare to earlier cases nor the vaccination status. We have been told most hospitalized are unvaxxed.

    I know quite a few people who have gotten Covid last year and in just the past month. Most people who got it last year were far sicker. I know several people who died last year. Those I know who got it recently were sick 3-4 days with a low to moderate fever for a day then just feeling like crud. They were aged from 30 to around eighty. The eighty year old had a lighter case then most of the younger people and she isn’t the healthiest.

    Incidentally everyone I know of who has gotten Covid recently was vaccinated and most were boosted. My brother got the booster recently and was as sick from the booster as the boosted people who had Covid.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @mc23


    I work in a hospital in a large metropolitan area. The number of patients in the hospital for Covid-19 is far, far higher than at any time since the beginning of the Covid outbreak. I do not know how the newer cases in the hospital compare to earlier cases nor the vaccination status. We have been told most hospitalized are unvaxxed.
     
    What fraction of the patients in hospital are obese ? I know that many who are skeptical of Covid 19, say that it just affects the obese, but that is a large fraction of the North American population.

    Unrelated. I always get a cold or two during the winter. Since Covid I have not been sick at all, I put that down to using masks and distancing.

    Replies: @mc23

  65. Hopefully, therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills will prove safe and effective.

    Lol! You betcha!

  66. “The mRNA vaccines were less efficacious at preventing a symptomatic hospital admission for the new Omicron strain than for the recent Delta strain”.

    At this point, there is no way to say something like this unless you are getting paid. Its well documented that everyone with any platform at all has been reached out to with offers of money to spread the shot gospel.

    The companies themselves are barely pretending their shots work for Omicron.

    Its sad to watch an above average intelligence sink into such a mediocrity as they age.

  67. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    I think he plays games a little bit because he assumes that only half of Covid cases are reported in computing his Omicron IFR but he makes no such assumption wrt the flu.

    We also don’t know what the Omicron IFR would be like in the absence of a vaccinated population. If we had a better, more tailored to Omicron vax and everyone took it, the Omicron IFR would be even lower. It’s easy to say Omicron is just the flu, bro when the population is highly vaccinated including almost all of the most vulnerable elderly. Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke, HA
    • Replies: @WJ
    @Jack D

    I've know at least 3 people that came down with Omicron. 2 of them overweight diabetics. Un-vaxxed. It was a strong cold but certainly nothing like the flu. The other person was a skinny 94 year old. Congestion and crankiness. Also un-vaxxed. All of this is anecdotal of course but ya,it's not even the flu bro.

    , @Bill
    @Jack D

    If only there were a flu vaccine.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Redman
    @Jack D

    South Africa isn’t highly vaccinated and Omicron has been similarly fairly innocuous.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @Intelligent Dasein
    @Jack D


    Without the vax it would be a different picture.
     
    Yes, it would be a very different picture, just not the different picture you're implying.

    The number of Covid cases among the vaccinated exceeds the number among the unvaccinated, in every age category, both in absolute numbers and percentages. The vaccines have negative efficacy against Covid. This is not a secret anymore; the data is out there. So why are you blithely carrying on as if the vaccines are helping?

    Replies: @Jack D

  68. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    Thanks for that tiresome reiteration of the conventional wisdom. Do you ever expose yourself to other ideas? Enjoy your useless N95 mask.

  69. “We know that the two doses of the vaccine offer very limited protection, if any,” said Pfizer CEO and chairman Albert Bourla in a Monday interview with Yahoo! Finance.

    “The three doses with a booster, they offer reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths – against deaths, I think, very good, and less protection against infection,” Bourla added.

    3 doses with a booster protects against death but not infection? In fucking sane. A few months into mass vaccination and the vaccines are useless. Completely consistent with what many predicted, that we would be chasing variants, as with the seasonal flu, with increasingly poor results. And I don’t believe a goddam thing they say about hospitalization, death stats. There is still no coordinated, consistent effort at sorting out the ‘with’ or ‘from’ distinction, never mind the wildly inaccurate testing regime for identifying the ‘infected’. I had my annual physical delayed yet again because I reported to my PCP that I had some mild nasal congestion. No other symptoms. I did two home quick tests in the days before, both negative. Apparently the tests are only accurate if you get a positive result.

  70. @John Milton’s Ghost
    @Dieter Kief

    True, yet….
    The geological record provides a lot of evidence that mass extinction is a regular occurrence. The reason we have fossil fuels is because of one of those die-offs. While I am sanguine that the more recent pattern of coadaptation will hold, you never know.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    The reason we have fossil fuels is because of one of those die-offs. While I am sanguine that the more recent pattern of coadaptation will hold, you never know.

    If we would know, or would be sure, there’d be no place for – – – hope.

    (What would make our lives poorer – and duller too. – To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence (existentielle Geworfenheit). – Total relief reserved for the heavenly creatures – up in patradise).

    • Replies: @Adept
    @Dieter Kief


    To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence
     
    No offense, but that is literally the most trite philosophical observation of all time. It has no explanatory power, and no metaphysical (or predictive) weight. No wonder Heidegger had to couch it in such dense jargon!

    Hell, the "I never asked for this" meme did it better. And that originated with video game writers earning $0.03/word.

    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @martin_2

  71. Off topic:

    Steve

    Matt Boland news…go google…

  72. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    the Biden Administration–in desperate need of a win–will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace.

    They will also still push vaccine boosters forever because they are a wholly owned subsidiary of Big Pharma.

    Follow the money.

  73. My entire family contracted COViD after Christmas….caught it from my cousin who was triple vaccinated….he was tired and had a headache but no fever, but developed a sore throat so he was tested December 26 and was positive.

    3 days later I had COVID, 102 fever and sore throat for two days….my wife had sore throat for one day but no fever. My kids all contracted it, they all had fatigue for several days but no sore throats. None of us were vaccinated, but we are all in good health. When I contracted the Flu In 2009 it far far worse than Coronavirus.

    Only the obese and elderly should be concerned about coronavirus. Thankfully they have access the vaccines. Unfortunately the vaccines fail to prevent Omicron infections.

  74. @Jack D
    @LondonBob

    I think he plays games a little bit because he assumes that only half of Covid cases are reported in computing his Omicron IFR but he makes no such assumption wrt the flu.

    We also don't know what the Omicron IFR would be like in the absence of a vaccinated population. If we had a better, more tailored to Omicron vax and everyone took it, the Omicron IFR would be even lower. It's easy to say Omicron is just the flu, bro when the population is highly vaccinated including almost all of the most vulnerable elderly. Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    Replies: @WJ, @Bill, @Redman, @Intelligent Dasein

    I’ve know at least 3 people that came down with Omicron. 2 of them overweight diabetics. Un-vaxxed. It was a strong cold but certainly nothing like the flu. The other person was a skinny 94 year old. Congestion and crankiness. Also un-vaxxed. All of this is anecdotal of course but ya,it’s not even the flu bro.

  75. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    They are already laying the groundwork for declaring victory with the guideline changes they have made. Recommended quarantine times have been cut to 5 days. Hilariously they are now recommending no quarantine at all for a “close contact” who has had a booster shot, but they want these people to wear a mask for 5 days. The problem they have is they have whipped the true believers into such a frenzy and Covid zealotry has become such an important part of their lives, it will be hard to talk them back down while there are still new cases circulating. The AP put out guidance to quit reporting new case numbers which should help.

  76. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    Yep. And let’s not forget Sweden. The one major country that bucked the hype and did things largely like those virologists suggested.

    In 2021 they had the lowest excess death rate in all of Europe. And they also halted the mRNA vaccine for people 30 and under back in early October. Who’s crying now?

  77. @ic1000
    Thoughts from a regular commenter, below the fold. Has worked in biotech (i.e. can read the primary literature) but not a clinician or a specialist. Pro-vaccine.

    In my family (all boosted, all infected), one college-age kid and Mrs. ic1000 had sniffles, other college-age kid had 2 days of bad stay-at-home flu symptoms. I had mild flu symptoms, now at Day 12 of being positive by rapid antigen tests. This seems to be the about the range among acquaintances in Rust Belt City, and among extended family.

    > If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder.

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It's a tendency, not a low of nature (I'll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    In this regard, the future is unwritten. (See the highly transmissible and highly fatal Spanish Flu of 1918.)

    A critical factor is the state of people's immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic cornonaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody's adaptive immune system. (Everybody's adaptive system is integrated with the evolutionarily-old innate immune system, which offers immediate defenses against all viruses, old and new.)

    It takes many days to a few weeks for the adaptive immune system's defenses (e.g. antibodies, B cells, T cells) to fully activate. For a re-exposure, the adaptive system is already primed, so its reactions are faster and stronger.

    This is the point of vaccination, and the basis of immunity after infection or vaccination.

    At the time of the lab leak (90% prior) or jump from bats (10%), everybody's immune system was naive. How sick you got depended on (1) circumstances of exposure, maybe, (2) how good your innate system was, (3) how good your adaptive system was, (4) your age -- probably 2 & 3 -- and (5) your comorbidities.

    As is well known, viruses mutate. It's a core part of their evolutionary strategy. Part of the "reason" is to evade the adaptive immune system, i.e. open up prior "protected" people to re-infection.

    Omicron's 32-plus mutations make it really good at this.

    However, thanks to infection and vaccination, very few people in the developed world are naive to any descendant of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. We have a head start on defending against delta, omicron, etc. As a result, the course of disease is milder and shorter.

    This will continue into the future. It is written.

    - - - - -

    In my opinion, the public-health response to the pandemic has been very poor, throughout. To say nothing of the West's political leadership class (but one expects them to be mostly fools and cowards). The one shining exception has been the extremely rapid development of reasonably safe and reasonably effective vaccines. The commenters who competently and correctly (IMHO) laid out the pro-vaxx arguments on earlier threads are "That Would Be Telling," "Jack D," "Rob," and a few others (apologies for lack of total recall). There's also the rapid progress in ICU techniques (e.g. pronation), and the development of monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule therapeutics.

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    Anyway, to the present and future.

    Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren't that bad.

    Policies haven't changed to reflect this reality. Omicron is going to continue sweeping -- this week is probably the peak in North America and Europe -- and then recede by early/mid February.

    In February/March, new policies will come into force that deal with the December realities.

    As far as the what and when of the next major variant (phi?): who knows? It will be contagious (by definition, or it won't be "major"). It may be mild to the few remaining naive people. For everybody else, our immune systems will definitely be primed to counter it, so very likely mild.

    In other words: The Flu, Bro (per 1918/19 and fragile old people every year, that's not necessarily the same as Just The Flu).

    Resources: Philippe Lemoine isn't a specialist; he has posted a set of very perceptive and accessible essays on Covid at his website.

    On the 1/3/22 episode of his podcast The Drive, Peter Attia interviewed a pair of dissenting thought leaders, Marty Makary and Zubin Damania. It is excellent, thorough, and timely... but runs 2 hours 45 minutes. They were involved with the Great Barrington statement, and have written numerous opinion pieces and Op-Eds. Speaking as a moderate pro-vaxxer: the world would be a better place if their ideas held sway... probably everybody but repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists (i.e. current US leadership) would agree on that.

    Zvi Moskowitz' blog "Don't Worry About the Vase" is thorough, comprehensive, and thoughtful. He's quite opinionated, and it's easy to get lost in the details.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Sick of Orcs, @That Would Be Telling, @Dmon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    “Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren’t that bad.”

    South Africa experienced very mild symptoms from Omicron, and their vaccination rate was very low. Their immune systems apparently didn’t become non-naive through vaccination. So what are the implications?
    1. They acquired recognition through prior infection, meaning they had alot more cases of “classic” then they thought (which would imply that a downward revision of IFR is in order), or that exposure to other coronaviruses (i.e., the common cold) confers some degree of immunity.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/233018/cells-from-common-colds-cross-protect-against/
    Or:
    2. Omicron is simply a mild strain.

    • Agree: ic1000
  78. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    Totally agree. They just moved the annual State of The Union address to early March, the latest held since 1934.

    Clearly they know where this is heading. And they want to have one thing for Biden to get those nauseating standing ovations for.

    • Thanks: slumber_j
    • Replies: @slumber_j
    @Redman

    I hadn't known that about the SOTU. Very interesting.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

  79. Dr. Been had a few videos on the flu versus Omicron (from the Cali study).

    (simplest view)

    More detail on the study:

  80. Steve…another off topic

    Tongan women are on the fat side….so they should be able to float…right?

  81. I will tell my grandchildren that Covid was Mass Hysteria and give them a list of names of the people I know who suffered death or side effects from the vaccinations

    I know 0 people who died from Covid.

    And if I’m wrong about Covid (before Omicron)…then the next question…What are you people eating? How unhealthy are you all?!?!

    The other weird thing I’ve learned is that Liberals don’t mind being physically injured if they feel it’s for the greater good or to go shopping/eat out…can never figure out which it really is. A woman who is trying to conceive a child who then gets cycle disruptions from her mRNA jab…and then still gets the booster….That doesn’t compute with me. And if you ask her if she was vaccine injured She Will Say No.

    That’s what Covid has taught me about white Liberals. If your husband suffers a stroke 3 days after the Pfizer jab…it wasn’t the vaccines fault.

    Develop an autoimmune condition that lands you in the ICU for 14 days and now possibly need an organ transplant…..2 weeks after the second dose. Not the vax. Absolutely not.

    That’s why whenever you ask Libs if they know anyone who has had issues with the vaccine, they will say No.

    The average human is Mad as a Hatter.

  82. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    We’re starting to lock back down here in Western Massachusetts. Amherst and Smith Colleges have announced they will begin the semester remotely. Amherst has banned spectators from its indoor athletic events, and Amherst and Smith, as well as the local high school have banned cloth masks- you must wear an N 95 or whatever the hell they’re called, or be, and I’m not making this up, double masked. My hand surgery has been postponed till who knows when, Municipalities are debating whether to redefine fully vaccinated as 3 jabs.
    Oh and the MIAA, the governing board for high school athletics in the state, has reaffirmed that all winter indoor athletes, mainly hoops and hockey, must wear masks while they are playing. The mask requirement for pupils in class has been extended to at least mid February, The MTA, the statewide teachers’ union, is lobbying heavily for a return to remote classes; so far sausage-spined RINO governor Charlie BakerParker is resisting- we’ll see if that continues.
    My wife had NPR on while she was cooking dinner the other night- it was a non stop 45 minutes of CoronaPanic. My local Hampshire county daily paper is all panic, all the time. Two of our neighbors, who normally walk their dogs with my wife refused to do it this week because we had been to Michigan and back over the weekend. And yes, we’re all vaccinated.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @ganderson

    I'm sorry to hear about all your grief up there in western Mass, Mr. Ganderson, especially regarding your favorite activity, hockey. To me making a requirement for people to wear masks during exercise is not only unhealthy, not only ludicrous, but a real example of how the officials want to rub their authority in.

    If I didn't think they were really, really stupid (most are), my next guess would be that they are having a little fun with their evil ways - "Oh, yeah, you think double-masking is hilarious? In my city, I'm gonna require them in swimming pools, and then ... here hold my beer. Watch this!"

    Replies: @Buckaroo

    , @Brutusale
    @ganderson

    Yeah, I was scheduled to have my hip done next week. I sent an email to Sorry Charlie's office wishing he could feel ONE day of the pain I'm feeling and still tell me that the surgery is "elective".

    Replies: @Ganderson

    , @kaganovitch
    @ganderson

    Amherst has banned spectators from its indoor athletic events,

    Really something they should have done decades ago.

    Replies: @Ganderson

  83. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    I don’t think everyone necessarily *will* get it. Some people seem fairly immune to covid. Others are unusually susceptible and catch it multiple times. I think it’s odd that relatives on my mother’s side of the family have essentially all caught covid 1-2x (1 even died during the delta wave), yet only a few people on my father’s side have. I’d guess about half of my friends and co-workers have had covid, but there are no real behavioral differences between those who caught it and those who did not. Only thing I’ve noticed is that church-goers seem to get covid more, and fat people get far sicker when they do catch it (but everyone already knew that).

    Maybe we still don’t know exactly how covid spreads.

    My husband and I have not caught it. I’ve been exposed multiple times, including last week. We travel regularly (including to covid hotspot Miami recently), hardly ever wear masks, attend social gatherings, etc. He has not worked remotely this entire time and I only worked remotely for about 6 weeks. We both received the vaccine but have no interest in the booster.

  84. During the 1918 pandemic my grandfather took in a gravely ill friend and nursed him back to health — and as a thank you the guy gave him a racehorse! But this is not 1918 and this is not your grandfather’s pandemic.

    It’s like those old ads for Certs or Miller Lite — “It’s a virus!” “No, it’s coerced compliance!” “Virus!” “Compliance!” Duck season or rabbit season? What it is is a new and multi-tentacled form of social control, a handy justification for “emergency powers.” So it’s not going away until it has outlived its usefulness, and it could come right back when needed once again

  85. @Jack D
    @LondonBob

    I think he plays games a little bit because he assumes that only half of Covid cases are reported in computing his Omicron IFR but he makes no such assumption wrt the flu.

    We also don't know what the Omicron IFR would be like in the absence of a vaccinated population. If we had a better, more tailored to Omicron vax and everyone took it, the Omicron IFR would be even lower. It's easy to say Omicron is just the flu, bro when the population is highly vaccinated including almost all of the most vulnerable elderly. Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    Replies: @WJ, @Bill, @Redman, @Intelligent Dasein

    If only there were a flu vaccine.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Bill

    Exactly. Omicron is turning out to be similar to the flu - there is a vaccine but it's not 100% effective (especially if you don't take it). But he discounts the Omicron IFR without similarly discounting the flu IFR and so concludes that the Omicron IFR is half that of the flu. If I had to guess, they are similar. Probably Omicron would be worse except for the fact that most of the most vulnerable have recently received 3 doses of vaccine.

    But yeah, we don't shut down schools and theaters every year during flu season. It's accepted that it's endemic and we are never getting rid of it. A certain # of mainly old people will die from it every year. We try to give everyone who wants it, especially the elderly, flu shots every year but if they don't want them we don't fire them from their jobs. We don't destroy our economy over the flu.

    For political reasons if nothing else (and as far as they are concerned, there IS nothing else) the Biden Administration is very soon going to declare "victory" over Covid the same way as they declared victory in Afghanistan. If it all goes to shit after they declare victory (and it probably won't anyway), it won't be their fault (and the media sure as hell aren't going to hold them accountable). The only hard part will be getting the unionized teacher back to work when they have been enjoying their paid vacations and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.

    Replies: @Bill, @That Would Be Telling, @Flying Dutchman

  86. Omicron isn’t even the flu. It’s just a bad cold. Ask me how I know.

    In Florida, for the most part Covid is a headache for nursing home administrators and a distant memory for normal folks.

    Covid’s continuing severe impact on schoolchildren and working adults in Blue areas is now an entirely political and quasi-religious phenomenon, not a medical phenomenon.

    • Replies: @Whereismyhandle
    @Ben Kurtz

    It's also a crimes against humanity phenomenon and people like Steve will be forced to answer for the sins when they meet St. Peter

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Ben Kurtz

    Ran out, but big AGREE here, Ben. I'm not in a blue area, but there are vestiges of this PanicFest around, and occasional suggestions/threats of a re-start by government and school officials in case we don't behave and people keep getting sick. Remember, the precedents have been set.

    Peak Stupidity, time permitting, will have our Menstruation Nation post coming out later in the bidness day. (I liked "Menopause Nation" too, but it didn't fit my downloaded image.)

    Replies: @anon

    , @Jack D
    @Ben Kurtz

    One man's bad cold is another man's fatal disease is another man's "I tested positive and I didn't even know that I had it". That's how it goes. Now Omicron is not a fatal disease to most people but for maybe 1 person in 1,000 it is. When you apply that to 300 million people it's still a lot of deaths.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

    , @Alrenous
    @Ben Kurtz

    "Now" entirely political?
    I called it being entirely political in January of 2020, and I've yet to see a single indication it has ever been anything but maybe a high-end flu.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

  87. @Triteleia Laxa
    @LondonBob

    Please note that this IFR is in a vaccinated population. Then again, the flu also plays out within an immunised population.

    I got Omicron and there is no way I would have known had I not tested myself for unrelated reasons. I slept in a day. Coughed a few times. And had a very slight tickle in my throat for a couple of hours. I would have thought I had a very mild allergy.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    I got Omicron and there is no way I would have known had I not tested myself for unrelated reasons.

    I’m curious to know – how did you know that what you got was Omicron? Do they have a specific Omicron test?

    • Agree: Adam Smith
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mr. Anon

    Almost all infections, nevermind reinfections, at the time and in the place were due to Omicron, and both I, and my close friend, were reinfections who caught it together. It is all but a statistical certainty.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  88. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    The key to design making was always going g to be politicians’ attempts to avoid blame, pri.arily blame for overloading of the health system.

  89. Going back to the isteve alleged focus on Human Biodiversity, let’s start at the bottom: How the hell did Pee-pad Joe and the knee-pad Ho end up at the top?
    Here’s a take I don’t think I’ve seen before; They were supposed to lose.
    The parallel is Bob Dole during the Clinton Regime,
    It makes a disturbing amount of sense.

    https://foundingquestions.wordpress.com/2022/01/14/friday-randomness/

    Everything about Totally Legit Joe screamed “Well, hell, we gotta run somebody.” The nearest analogue was Bob Dole’s 1996 effort: Pre-Monica Clinton was pretty much unbeatable, so the GOP wasn’t going to tar one of its up-and-comers as a loser. Instead, they trotted out a venerable old warhorse — let the old guy have his moment in the sun, do some fundraising, get his name a few slots higher in the history books.

  90. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists or is the same as “Covid”.

    So thousands of independently submitted samples are all fake? Thousands of organizations around the world are in on a conspiracy? Is that what you believe?

    COVID will be over in less than 2 months thanks to Omicron.

    The only people bamboozled are the ones that bought a book from a liberal lawyer that has zero background in biology.

  91. Hopefully, therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills will prove safe and effective.

    These drugs were introduced and approved, like Remdesivir and the vaccines, because they could be put under patent and Big Pharma could make a lot of money off of them. According to a Medicare database, 26% of Covid patients who were given Remdesivir died compared to 7% who were given Ivermectin,

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/26-of-those-prescribed-remdesivir-for-covid-died-according-to-medicare-database/

    In treating the disease, you need to deal with multiple issues such as viral replication, blood clotting and inflammation so you need a multidrug treatment protocol implemented as early as possible. One such protocol developed by Dr. George Fareed and Dr. Brian Tyson, which included Ivermectin and HCQ, was used on 7,000 patients with only 3 deaths and no deaths when started within seven days of the onset of the disease. Their reward for their success was to have the government threaten to take away their medical licenses. This intimidation of doctors by the government and a Big Tech censorship campaign kept similar protocols from being widely adopted. It was done to eliminate competition to Big Pharma’s inadequately tested vaccines which have potentially dangerous side effects and become ineffective when the virus mutates. This is corrupt crony capitalism at its worst.

  92. @Ben Kurtz
    Omicron isn't even the flu. It's just a bad cold. Ask me how I know.

    In Florida, for the most part Covid is a headache for nursing home administrators and a distant memory for normal folks.

    Covid's continuing severe impact on schoolchildren and working adults in Blue areas is now an entirely political and quasi-religious phenomenon, not a medical phenomenon.

    Replies: @Whereismyhandle, @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D, @Alrenous

    It’s also a crimes against humanity phenomenon and people like Steve will be forced to answer for the sins when they meet St. Peter

  93. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    Goddamn I wish your Pfizer shares would vest and you would shut the fuck up already.

    • Agree: Mr. Anon, Kratoklastes, 3g4me
    • LOL: Alrenous, Mike Tre
  94. The gist would seem to be that now we really would be better off just ignoring it.

  95. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime 

    – in the beginning, nobody knew how this thing would play out. If I’m right, your claim implies the likes of Steve Sailer and Greg Cochran and Ron Unz et. al. – in the light of this – act – i think your claim about the voluntary destruction of the economy is not absolutely plausible, to choose the weakest version of my contradiction here.

    On a different note: Pandemics are perfect petri dishes for all kinds of ghosts in our basements to have a King’s Banquet with – if my metaphor is halfwayst on track.

    Put more bluntly: Pandemics are not least occasions in which – – – we, as societies, show (and have to deal with) rather dark (= half-conscious / subconscious) regions which – per definition – are no places where nothing but sound reasons emerge. There’s angst there, in those darker regions of our selves, and suspicions, hate, confusion, inner turmoil etc. pp. – . Thing is: We can only tell in retrospect, who really had a clear mind (Jackson Browne – “(…) it takes a clear mind to make it” (in his version of the song Cocaine.…).

    Now that we’re through with this Covid thing (or close to being through), I started to reflect about it and what I can say while looking  back at close to seven hundred days which saw me on average at least an hour / day – often more – trying to figure out what was going on, this one thing that I take home with me is the sentence by Sigmund Freud: The voice of reason is speaking softly. Here I think of Martin Kulldorff and John Ioannidis, and of an outsider: science blogger Hail to You – all of them champions of this debate – and of some commenters here or on Ron Unz’ site like like ic1000 and the tirelessly arguing That would be telling (and quite a few others too). Coolest – and softest spoken – dudes of all: Johan Giesecke and his pupil and successor Anders Tegnell in Sweden (Freddy Sayers of UnHerd TV did a great job interviewing them).

    The next best thing after being soft-spoken or maybe the best thing even, is if the debaters are able to show self-irony. Like Michael Levitt did and Ivor Cummins and – the lovely! and heartwarmingly clear Swiss retired virology professor Beda M. Stadler, whom Ivor Cummins features prominently in his Covid documentary film.

    For me personally Stadler with his articles in the Swiss press and his TV-appearances in Swiss and Austrian first rank TV-talk-shows and news-shows and his guest-appearances on Burkhard Müller-Ullrich’s very soft spoken and here and there self-ironic podcast Idubio of the German site Achgut.Com, where the Swiss Professor Stadler appeared regularly, made the biggest difference. Together with the German family-doctor and well known medical writer Gunter Frank, who wrote ca. eighty very well informed articles on Achgut.Com and did publish a decent book about covid called “Der Staats Virus” ( = the Virus who was created by the state and who affected the state…). 

    Lots of others were not either soft spoken and / or self-ironic, and did raise some interesting questions, but they were often times contaminated with outlandish speculations (Rainer Fuellmich, Dr. Wodarg, Dr. Malone…).

    All in all I’d hold, that the real difference made those who knew how to stay cool and – how to differentiate between facts and predictions. Statistics seemed to be the biggest hurdle for most who paticipapted in this debate – here the science blogger Orwell2024 was doing great work, and the British mathematician Norman Fenton (both are on twitter).

    The best Covid rant was Joe Rogan’s – by a mile – if not by two: Removed from youtube – the three-minute-clip in which he says, that he has not been ill for years – that he thinks, that not moving your lazy bones while being severely overweight is maybe the most damaging Covid-risk-factor – way worse than getting the jab – or not… – which, I think, could quite easily turn out to be – at least quite close to the truth. But except for that: This short clip is the great anti-panic Covid-performance!

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @anon
    @Dieter Kief


    Now that we’re through with this Covid thing (or close to being through)
     
    We may be approaching the end of COVID as a serious killer, but we're nowhere near the end of Corona, the social/political phenomenon. Some of the most severe restrictions on personal liberties, the vaccine passports, are only now being rolled out in major US cities.

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we've done to our societies over the past two years.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Dieter Kief

    , @ic1000
    @Dieter Kief

    DK, your comment prompted me to go back to the Great Barrington Declaration. It was posted on October 4, 2020, over a month before evidence of the efficacy and reasonable safety of Pfizer's jab became known.

    With the benefit of fifteen months' hindsight, this short essay reads very well indeed! A map for the Road Not Taken.

    It returned to the headlines last month, when news broke that Narrative celebrities had worked behind the scenes to suffocate reasoned discussion of the GBD's core idea, Focused Protection. From STATnews, the FOIA'd 10/8/20 email from NIH supremo Francis Collins to Anthony Fauci and others. Thanks to its brevity, the force of their anti-intellectual dogmatism shines through.


    Hi Tony and Cliff,

    See https://gbdeclaration.org/ This proposal from three fringe epidemiologists who met with the Secretary seems to be getting a lot of attention - and even a co-signature from Nobel Prize winner Mike Leavitt at Stanford. There needs to be a quick and devastating published takedown of its premises. I don't see anything like that on line yet - is it underway?

    Francis
     

    Further thoughts:

    * The vaccines seemed to achieve near-complete "sterilizing immunity" against the SARS-CoV-2 strains that were circulating in the first half of 2021. If that had held, it would have created common policy ground between the doctrinaire public-health/medical establishment and Focused Protection advocates. The establishment was unwittingly and foolishly placing a multi-trillion-dollar bet that sterilizing immunity would continue -- even though it was generally known by October that this bet had already gone bust.

    * In the past week, I've put some time into looking for safety information on vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. It is very difficult to find solid statistical treatments of this very important subject. My qualitative impression -- which seems to be shared by Martin Kulldorff of the GBF and the Attia podcast interview referenced earlier -- is that the mRNA vaccines are on the "more risky" side of the "generally safe" window. The issue of greatest concern appears to be vaccine-provoked myocarditis among healthy young men, in the days and weeks after a second or third (booster) dose. Given that SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild in this group, especially after one dose, the case for repeat jabs does not appear to be supported by risk/reward analysis.

    * To be clear, I remain strongly pro-vaxx. For older people and people with comorbidities, the risk/reward case for vaccination and boosting appears very strong. However, given the vaccinated's susceptibility to infection by new variants, herd immunity arguments are invalid. "You owe it to society" boils down to "be prudent in your behavior so as not to overburden hospitals." That strikes me as a weak justification for coercive policies that violate the principal of Autonomy. And how does one weigh the justified loss of trust in medicine and public health, when the antics of people like Fauci, Collins, and Biden -- among others -- come to light?

    Replies: @clyde, @Mark G., @Dieter Kief

  96. Chiroptera in yet another belfry: What do you come down with get when you cross Chinese and West African bats?

    Covibola? E-vid-19?

    More than 100 pounds of bushmeat seized at MSP

    Customs agents at MSP would stand in a circle and chop up Cuban cigars. Bet they don’t do this with bushmeat! Besides, it will no doubt have a very different stink from African riverine fish. I was in the facility when a load of that came through.

    For some contraband, dogs aren’t necessary.

  97. @Jack D
    @LondonBob

    I think he plays games a little bit because he assumes that only half of Covid cases are reported in computing his Omicron IFR but he makes no such assumption wrt the flu.

    We also don't know what the Omicron IFR would be like in the absence of a vaccinated population. If we had a better, more tailored to Omicron vax and everyone took it, the Omicron IFR would be even lower. It's easy to say Omicron is just the flu, bro when the population is highly vaccinated including almost all of the most vulnerable elderly. Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    Replies: @WJ, @Bill, @Redman, @Intelligent Dasein

    South Africa isn’t highly vaccinated and Omicron has been similarly fairly innocuous.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Redman


    South Africa isn’t highly vaccinated and Omicron has been similarly fairly innocuous.
     
    South Africa is about 2/5ths vaccinated by eye, this has been occupation and age prioritized, and with the good stuff, Pfizer/BioNTech and Janssen (they didn't think AZ/Oxford was good enough for their Beta variant).

    But it has a high level of natural immunity and that's probably better than two doses of a good vaccine. This is one of the reasons we think early Omicron outcomes over there have largely been replicated in a place like the US where there's more vaccine immunity in the mix but probably a high overall total.
  98. @Dieter Kief
    @John Milton’s Ghost


    The reason we have fossil fuels is because of one of those die-offs. While I am sanguine that the more recent pattern of coadaptation will hold, you never know.
     
    If we would know, or would be sure, there'd be no place for - - - hope.

    (What would make our lives poorer - and duller too. - To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence (existentielle Geworfenheit). - Total relief reserved for the heavenly creatures - up in patradise).

    Replies: @Adept

    To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence

    No offense, but that is literally the most trite philosophical observation of all time. It has no explanatory power, and no metaphysical (or predictive) weight. No wonder Heidegger had to couch it in such dense jargon!

    Hell, the “I never asked for this” meme did it better. And that originated with video game writers earning \$0.03/word.

    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    @Adept


    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.
     
    I was gullible enough at college to think the big name philosophers actually knew something.

    The philosophy course I took reading all the major works of Heidegger permanently removed the scales from my eyes.

    To any young folks thinking about taking such courses--don't do it. You will learn much more from your stoned friends at parties--with no exams and no papers.

    ;-)

    Replies: @Alrenous, @Dieter Kief, @New Dealer

    , @martin_2
    @Adept


    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.
     
    "The Being by which Nothingness comes into the world is a Being, such that in its Being, the Nothingness of its Being is in question. The Being by which Nothingness comes into the world must be its own Nothingness."

    Sartre.

    So there!

    Replies: @Flying Dutchman

  99. @Jack D
    @LondonBob

    I think he plays games a little bit because he assumes that only half of Covid cases are reported in computing his Omicron IFR but he makes no such assumption wrt the flu.

    We also don't know what the Omicron IFR would be like in the absence of a vaccinated population. If we had a better, more tailored to Omicron vax and everyone took it, the Omicron IFR would be even lower. It's easy to say Omicron is just the flu, bro when the population is highly vaccinated including almost all of the most vulnerable elderly. Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    Replies: @WJ, @Bill, @Redman, @Intelligent Dasein

    Without the vax it would be a different picture.

    Yes, it would be a very different picture, just not the different picture you’re implying.

    The number of Covid cases among the vaccinated exceeds the number among the unvaccinated, in every age category, both in absolute numbers and percentages. The vaccines have negative efficacy against Covid. This is not a secret anymore; the data is out there. So why are you blithely carrying on as if the vaccines are helping?

    • Thanks: Pierre de Craon
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Maybe in number of cases but not in seriousness of cases. Covid is not a big deal because it give people (the vaccinated) a cold. Covid is a big deal because it sends people to the hospital and sometimes kills people (mainly the unvaccinated). The hospitalization rate for the unvaccinated is 17x the rate for the vaccinated:

    https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/01/10/briefing/11-MORNING-HOSP-CHART/11-MORNING-HOSP-CHART-superJumbo-v4.png?quality=75&auto=webp

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

  100. @prosa123
    Since March 2020 there have been 119 cases of Covid among members of Congress. They are not a young population. Nonetheless, the only member to die was Rep. Ron Wright of Texas, who already had been dying of lung cancer.

    As of a month ago, largely pre-Omicron, there had been 80 deaths among member of the US military, out of 258,800 cases ... that's a death rate of 0.03%.

    Way back in October 2020, before any vaccines, my employer reported ten deaths out of 19,816 cases among employees, for a death rate of 0.05%.

    As of May 2021 there were 700,000+ Covid cases on college campuses and, according to the NYT, more than 100 deaths, with the "vast majority" of deaths among college employees rather than students. Using these admittedly approximate figures that's a death rate of 0.015%, with the death rate for students being even lower.

    My take on all this: anyone who's squeakin' and squawkin' about how this is a Guaranteed Death Sentence and that we must stay locked indoor forever should be declared paranoid schizophrenic and thrown in the funny farm.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @John Johnson

    As of September of 2021, 18 months into COVID and 9 months into a national vaccination campaign, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said that “more than 20” NASA employees had died of COVID.

    https://www.wmfe.org/bidens-covid-19-vaccine-push-includes-62400-nasa-workers/189944

    That’s out of a total Civil Servant workforce of about 17,000. Assuming “more than 20” would mean “21 – 30”, that’s a total fatality rate of 0.11% – 0.18%. If that number also includes NASA’s workforce of in-house contractors that number would be even lower. And there is no telling how many of those people died “of COVID” or “with COVID”. NASA’s workforce is not especially young or healthy.

    This was hardly a plague that justified the insane responses that were imposed on society in its name.

  101. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists

    Well I had it last week and I can’t recommend it enough. Gives you a night or two of solid ten hours sleep, then you’re fresh as a daisy.

    • Agree: Bernard
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Hangnail Hans

    Well I had it last week and I can’t recommend it enough. Gives you a night or two of solid ten hours sleep, then you’re fresh as a daisy.

    I had a light case that didn't even last 48 hours. Felt great the whole time. Was doing chores outside and actually forgot that I had it.

    It honestly feels good to get it out of the way.

    The media is horrified by stories of people intentionally getting it but that honestly isn't a bad idea if you are certain of getting it anyways. Some people have trips planned and are trying to get it early. Anyone that is around the public is going to get it even with a kn95 mask.

    There is also mental relief in knowing that you have had it. I was never that worried but really didn't want to be down for a week or two which is what happens to some people.

    Replies: @Hangnail Hans

  102. @slumber_j
    @LondonBob


    It isn’t even close to the flu.
     
    That's right in my experience. I tested positive in mid-December: an otherwise healthy 56-year-old guy who suffered one unpleasantly feverish night, then two more nights of increasingly mild fever. I took some long naps in the day. An inconsequential cough, no sore throat to speak of, very little mucus etc. Then it was basically over except for some residual crap in my lungs. It was somewhere between a bad cold and a not-bad flu, but way shorter in duration than either.

    People forget how awful the flu can be: this isn't that. My 14-year-old son got it (almost certainly from me) and felt iffy for one day: he only got a test because he had to get one in order to return to boarding school.

    Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration--in desperate need of a win--will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I'd be willing to put money on it. If I'm right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.

    Replies: @Sick of Orcs, @aNewBanner, @mmack, @Justvisiting, @Barnard, @Redman, @Hangnail Hans, @Prester John

    Yeah I think you nailed it. Last year was something else, though, since they promised us they’d rescue the nation from the ‘Trump Virus’ but instead they made it worse.

  103. anon[340] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dieter Kief
    @Hypnotoad666


    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime 
     
    - in the beginning, nobody knew how this thing would play out. If I'm right, your claim implies the likes of Steve Sailer and Greg Cochran and Ron Unz et. al. - in the light of this - act - i think your claim about the voluntary destruction of the economy is not absolutely plausible, to choose the weakest version of my contradiction here.

    On a different note: Pandemics are perfect petri dishes for all kinds of ghosts in our basements to have a King's Banquet with - if my metaphor is halfwayst on track.

    Put more bluntly: Pandemics are not least occasions in which - - - we, as societies, show (and have to deal with) rather dark (= half-conscious / subconscious) regions which - per definition - are no places where nothing but sound reasons emerge. There's angst there, in those darker regions of our selves, and suspicions, hate, confusion, inner turmoil etc. pp. - . Thing is: We can only tell in retrospect, who really had a clear mind (Jackson Browne - "(...) it takes a clear mind to make it" (in his version of the song Cocaine....).

    Now that we're through with this Covid thing (or close to being through), I started to reflect about it and what I can say while looking  back at close to seven hundred days which saw me on average at least an hour / day - often more - trying to figure out what was going on, this one thing that I take home with me is the sentence by Sigmund Freud: The voice of reason is speaking softly. Here I think of Martin Kulldorff and John Ioannidis, and of an outsider: science blogger Hail to You - all of them champions of this debate - and of some commenters here or on Ron Unz' site like like ic1000 and the tirelessly arguing That would be telling (and quite a few others too). Coolest - and softest spoken - dudes of all: Johan Giesecke and his pupil and successor Anders Tegnell in Sweden (Freddy Sayers of UnHerd TV did a great job interviewing them).

    The next best thing after being soft-spoken or maybe the best thing even, is if the debaters are able to show self-irony. Like Michael Levitt did and Ivor Cummins and - the lovely! and heartwarmingly clear Swiss retired virology professor Beda M. Stadler, whom Ivor Cummins features prominently in his Covid documentary film.

    For me personally Stadler with his articles in the Swiss press and his TV-appearances in Swiss and Austrian first rank TV-talk-shows and news-shows and his guest-appearances on Burkhard Müller-Ullrich's very soft spoken and here and there self-ironic podcast Idubio of the German site Achgut.Com, where the Swiss Professor Stadler appeared regularly, made the biggest difference. Together with the German family-doctor and well known medical writer Gunter Frank, who wrote ca. eighty very well informed articles on Achgut.Com and did publish a decent book about covid called "Der Staats Virus" ( = the Virus who was created by the state and who affected the state...). 

    Lots of others were not either soft spoken and / or self-ironic, and did raise some interesting questions, but they were often times contaminated with outlandish speculations (Rainer Fuellmich, Dr. Wodarg, Dr. Malone...).

    All in all I'd hold, that the real difference made those who knew how to stay cool and - how to differentiate between facts and predictions. Statistics seemed to be the biggest hurdle for most who paticipapted in this debate - here the science blogger Orwell2024 was doing great work, and the British mathematician Norman Fenton (both are on twitter).

    The best Covid rant was Joe Rogan's - by a mile - if not by two: Removed from youtube - the three-minute-clip in which he says, that he has not been ill for years - that he thinks, that not moving your lazy bones while being severely overweight is maybe the most damaging Covid-risk-factor - way worse than getting the jab - or not... - which, I think, could quite easily turn out to be - at least quite close to the truth. But except for that: This short clip is the great anti-panic Covid-performance!

    Replies: @anon, @ic1000

    Now that we’re through with this Covid thing (or close to being through)

    We may be approaching the end of COVID as a serious killer, but we’re nowhere near the end of Corona, the social/political phenomenon. Some of the most severe restrictions on personal liberties, the vaccine passports, are only now being rolled out in major US cities.

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we’ve done to our societies over the past two years.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @anon


    We may be approaching the end of COVID as a serious killer, but we’re nowhere near the end of Corona, the social/political phenomenon. Some of the most severe restrictions on personal liberties, the vaccine passports, are only now being rolled out in major US cities.

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we’ve done to our societies over the past two years.
     
    Agreed. And like the many policies implemented after 9/11, they will never go away. They were not intended to go away. Dealing with a virus was not the purpose of any of it.
    , @Dieter Kief
    @anon


    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we’ve done to our societies over the past two years.
     
    I've debated that question a lot lately. If I'd make my point very short, I'd say, most of the damage lies right in front of our eyes and is not that hard too detect or understand. And the things we suffer most from - ar not new at all.
    My bottom line is: Emotions have taken the upper hand in our debates (and lives). - Rationality is looking rather poor lately. - Our take on science and our understanding of the proper role of science has suffered quite a bit as well. As a pars pro toto take what Dr. Scott Atlas writes in his book A Plague Upon Our House about the total lack of scientific data / aspects in the meetings that were held in the White House with the CDC et. al.
    Thus what the Covid debate looked like over vast stretches of time and space - was more a Religious Cult than a reasonable debate (that's the main covid-thesis of science-blogger Hail-to-You, who has written some impressive essays about this subject starting in spring 2020.

    Here is the link to Mr. Hail's site. behind the more knob are some of the thoughts I've posted at Mr. Hail's site lately about the very questioon you asked: What is the damage , that was done here?

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/

    Mr. Hail wrote above: “I do not think this kind of International Relations-theory-based hypothesis explains the Panic, but it does explain one part of it (…).”

    Ok, I’ll try.

    I – Prologue

    The bard Bob Dylan I quoted in my last comment above in the song “Senor” sings – on his Christian – LP Street Legal about “Tales of Yankee Power” – and then he goes on to ask: “Can You Tell me Where We’re Headin’ – Lincoln Country Road or Armageddon”. – And then he says: “The last thing I remember, before I stripped and kneeled / Was that trainload of fools bowed down in a magnetic field.”

    II – Kunstler & Tucker

    Jeffrey Tucker from The Brownstone Institute in the interview with Howard Kunstler speaks of a dynamic which is best expressed by the ex-Marxist (!) David Godhart in his book “The Road to Somewhere”: The elite classes do have a tendency to get caught in the “magnetic field” of elite-inbreeding (mentally & intellectually too) – and that, I’d say, is then what is perceived as a form of US-hegemony.
    Logically this US-hegemony-thesis makes no sense if the aggressor – the US – suffers from the same problem. – And JeffreyTucker says that the US clearly do suffer too – and that it hurts the US badly and – that that is a dynamic he – being a liberterian – has clearly underestimated so far. – A trap for being a liberterian, as he seems to clearly understand now – is to overlook the damage that the self-isolation of the elites does to them. By literally looking down on fly-over country and by metaphroically looking down on the deplorables by giving them this name does hurt them in turning them partly into self-deceivers – and self-decapitators.

    they are thus loosing touch with the non-digitalized part (= big, no: Huge parts of not only societal, but also physical reality (For those who know this stuff – this is Georg Wilhelm Freidich Hegel’s dialetic of the master and the servant in his masterwork The Phenomenology of the Spirit (1807)).

    I think Jeffrey Tucker refered to Goodharts (and Jonathan Haidts and Jordan Petersons…) claim that we see how the elites (in part) blind themselves by standing too close together, so to speak.

    They lose – the bard again – the Street Legality perspective – the perspective of regular folks – the perspective of the country roads. Btw. – Howard Kunstler is a man who – consciously! – decided to go back to the land himself – and live with regular folks and even do gardenenig etc…. – in short: Howard Kunstler decided to become a Somewhere – and said often, that that is what helped him in his political and societal analyses too.
    Those in the functional elites (the (Western) 30% worldwide) handed themselves over via their self-isolation/ digitalization to a rather snowflaky – and – – sterile – – way of self-centeredness, fixated to their – one and only! – little souls (German novelist and essayist Hermann Peter Piwitt in the 80ies about an early form of snowlfakery and hyper-sensitivity and hyper-feminism (In his essay collection Boccherini and Other Cicvilian’s Duties) !

    III – Somewheres and Anywheres

    That’s how individualism does make your thought system rather detached from reality and thus fragile. Because seen from the perspective of a highly individualized life (Bill Gates’ perspective, too) it appears to be a high risk to – live… And it makes the others – the dark masses out there – look dangerous! – – So – let’s lockdown and self-isolate us from them. Martin Kulldorff was the one to point this aspect of the pro panic lockdowners out time and time again. It is a form of class-division – now as a laptop-class vs. blue collar workers (= Anywheres against Somewheres).

    IV – Somewheres and The Coddling of the American (= Western Mind) – The Snowflake-Epidemic

    So – there is a tendency in the (often childless, and very feminist leaning and more and more a-religious elite of the western upper 30% (the functional elite…) to be and act overcautious – and that’s I think what happened in part in Denmark too – and what did help to establish Lockdwons as a global norm.

    There are more subtle things going here as well.

    What the EXPRESSEN article in my last comment above makes clear perfectly well is that the Danish at times did lean too much to the official panic side. And here I agree in part with your argument of the political hegemony of the US, because this leads to an international panic coalition. But that is not driven politically in the first place, but mentally/ and in mediatised ways. – State representatives in Denmark are also part of the 30% of the functional elites in the West, which tend – to be Anywheres throughout – and thus do identify with super-individualism to make this point extremely short – and .t.h.u.s. panic (the same reason Bill Gates did panic).

    But – an important but here: The elites had a point in that they were pro vaccine and – Bill Gates proves now that he is not completely blinded by the panic part of his – spirit. He does now say: After Omicron we’re done and this whole thing is over. – And this is accepted widely now in Denmark and – for the moment – seems to be the most important move.

    I do welcome every single soul chiming in to the Omicron-is-the-end-of-Corona choir!

    I’m a bit hesitant about what will happen in Germany in this regard. Panic is still rather strong here. Even though things are getting better by and large – the editor in chief of Die weLT, Ulf Poschart, wrote an editorial yesterday saying science had not been correctly covered by the German media and understood by the politiclal leaders – that science and the scientific discourse need free speech and can’t reasonably function without it – and that – yes – mistakes have been made and – need to be corrected! – I made him aware numerous times of the direction of the Danish example in the migration discussion. And – yesterday he wrote this article about the necessity freedom in scientific debates and he ran a decent article about the Expressen self-critic I’ve linked above. So… – we’ll see how this will turn out to be.

    V – -. – -. – – Codas in various Forms

    a) Individuality and Loneliness

    Two points I want to just stress. Individuality and loneliness are very closely related and loneliness sure is what scares the hell out of people in The Lonely Crowd. – The (Christian) religion is opposed to this kind of – existential rooflessness ( Georg Lukacs) and super-
    individualism – and in being so, it is liberating by helping people to – belong.

    b) The Womenfolk as panic-drivers

    The role of emancipated women in this whole panic-dynamic. They often are childless and highly mobile (= rootless & (metaphysically) roofless) and they are now often in a position where they lead the way (German media is heavily influenced by them – in parts (political talk-shows are even women- dominated)) – – – which adds up to them being a discernible factor of the panic-boosterism. And I think women are biologically informed, so to speak, to be over-cautious, because you get pregnant quite fast but are a mother for long periods of time. Now – for being a mother it is not the most important thing to be principled (Jordan Peterson hints at this important difference betwen men and women here and there). –

    c) An Art Historian as a Canary in the Academic Goldmine in the 1990ies ff.

    That goes along quite well with postmodernism, which is not least an attack on principles and sound arguments. See Jürgen Habermas: The Philosophical Discourse of Modernity – or the shorter version: Listen to Jordan B. Peterson’s talk with Camille Paglia about postmodernism.

    In any case – read the brilliant article by Julia Friedman in The New Criterion about Dave Hickey. – He was an an art critic, who – a few years after Habermas and: Yours truly, who both started to strongly and publicly oppose postmodernism/deconstructivism ca. 1985 ff. – ahh, that’s what I wanted to say: Dave Hickey did see the postmodernist/deconstructivist disaster coming and – this is important – – Dave Hickey expressed his disgust about it and his criticism of it right away in super-clear and super-condensed words, which is a great achievement. – I highly recommend reading the linked below article about him

    https://newcriterion.com/issues/2022/1/the-man-who-laughed-in-church

    d) Death and Birth and Death and Birth (Joni Mitchell – Don’t Interrupt the Sorrow)

    Another addendum: The elite’s 30 % and lots of the women in there are 1) childless and 2) Anywheres. – Both things – childlessness and being Anywheres are two big obstacles if you want to come to grips with death.

    And death was the central theme of the pandemic.

    e) Growing Old in big numbers while Losing My Religion (R.E.M.) / The Hunger for Structure (Erich Fromm)

    The last addendum: Since we in the West are living in societies which are getting older and older – and since religion does not work that properly any longer, those rather close to death old folks are all too happy to succumb to the Corona-cult. – They feel good inside this bubble – and – – – – feel they are understood by the authorities deep down inside and – – respected! – They are very grateful for this panic cult and the panic cult most likely saved lots of them from getting completely lost (in angst and depression) because it did serve the .n.e.e.d.s. of a cult (cf. Émile Durkheim). As Erich Fromm said time and time again: People have a natural longing or hunger for structure (that comes in the first place). I can say this from lots of conversations with and observations of older folks me and my wife happened to have and discussed with (and spoke about) often in the last 23 months.

  104. Omicron has been where I live for about two months now:

    – it’s really contagious, everyone is getting it (the shot, for people who like that sort of thing, is useless)

    – anecdotally, even prior immunity – much better than the shot – doesn’t work well (a person I know had delta just a couple of months ago and got this one)

    – omicron is far less rough than original covid or delta but you still get sick – think of a annoyingly lingering cold or flu that never feels very serious or worrying

    It will end covid, it simply isn’t serious enough or scary enough for anyone except the people who really love lockdowns, masks and shots for their own sake or who are emotionally attached to the scare story narrative

    • Replies: @Bernard
    @Ben H


    It will end covid, it simply isn’t serious enough or scary enough for anyone except the people who really love lockdowns, masks and shots for their own sake or who are emotionally attached to the scare story narrative
     
    Completely agree, but I'm concerned (just short of certain) that the COVID pandemic will create the template for an endless parade of these events in the future. The power bestowed on government is too tantalizing to resist. Our feminized society values safety above all else and to that end, will happily trade freedom and liberty for it.

    Replies: @MGB

  105. @prosa123
    Since March 2020 there have been 119 cases of Covid among members of Congress. They are not a young population. Nonetheless, the only member to die was Rep. Ron Wright of Texas, who already had been dying of lung cancer.

    As of a month ago, largely pre-Omicron, there had been 80 deaths among member of the US military, out of 258,800 cases ... that's a death rate of 0.03%.

    Way back in October 2020, before any vaccines, my employer reported ten deaths out of 19,816 cases among employees, for a death rate of 0.05%.

    As of May 2021 there were 700,000+ Covid cases on college campuses and, according to the NYT, more than 100 deaths, with the "vast majority" of deaths among college employees rather than students. Using these admittedly approximate figures that's a death rate of 0.015%, with the death rate for students being even lower.

    My take on all this: anyone who's squeakin' and squawkin' about how this is a Guaranteed Death Sentence and that we must stay locked indoor forever should be declared paranoid schizophrenic and thrown in the funny farm.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @John Johnson

    My take on all this: anyone who’s squeakin’ and squawkin’ about how this is a Guaranteed Death Sentence and that we must stay locked indoor forever should be declared paranoid schizophrenic and thrown in the funny farm.

    Fatalities were never the main problem with Delta. I really don’t care about what CNN decides to exaggerate. My opinions are based on medical data. I don’t watch cable news of any type.

    The problem was that anti-vaxxers would end up on a ventilator when there are only so many beds available. Then they come out with damaged lungs and need drugs and physical therapy for months. It’s extremely expensive in comparison to getting the vaccine. Many of these patients will easily rack up over half a million in medical bills. Some of them are too damaged to return to work and will be on disability.

    Hospitals normally operate close to capacity. A pandemic can overload them and that is exactly what happened with Delta. My local hospital was overloaded and there were actually patients waiting in ambulances for a bed.

    With Omicron the cases are less severe and the hospital stays are shorter. In some areas ventilators aren’t even being used.

    None of this should be a surprise to anyone that has read about viruses. This is what often happens over time which is that a less severe but more contagious mutation takes over. It spreads faster and then provides protection against the more severe strain. But unfortunately this is only a general rule as they can also mutate and turn deadly again. It is good however that Omicron spreads quickly since that makes burn-out more likely. We want it to spread and burn out before another mutation starts circulating among waning protection.

    My guess is that this is the end of the pandemic and the mandates will be dropped. I correctly predicted the Delta surge and decline unlike all of the anti-vaxx leaders. So we will see if I can go 2/2.

    • LOL: 3g4me
    • Replies: @peterike
    @John Johnson


    The problem was that anti-vaxxers would end up on a ventilator when there are only so many beds available.
     
    First, your premise is mostly bullshit. But in any case, a ventilator is exactly the wrong treatment for Covid. This has been known for well over a year, yet hospitals are still putting people on them. It's basically deliberate murder at this point, but it comes with a fat check for the hospital, so shut up.

    The perfidy of our medical establishment is genuinely limitless.

    Also, there has never been a bed shortage other than perhaps very briefly in very limited areas. It's all lies.

    Then they come out with damaged lungs and need drugs and physical therapy for months.

     

    Mostly they don't come out at all.

    It’s extremely expensive in comparison to getting the vaccine.

     

    It's also extremely expensive compared to the well understood medical treatments that are cheap and effective, yet being deliberately blocked.
  106. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers

    Don’t worry. There’s still time. We’re still all pullin’ for ya’, “That would be telling”.

    Then there is this guy:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/business/media/carlos-tejada-dead.html

    Of course there’s no proof that Mr. Tejada died from the vaccine. He just happened to die within one day of getting a booster shot.

    It’s not like the media would ever report that an alarmingly high number of people were dying from the vaccine. They are entirely in the pocket of big pharma. That is not something they would ever say if it were true.

    ……….., and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    Excuse me? Who is more desperate and vitriolic? The only people I see throwing vitriol around are the politicians and celebrities who publicly denounce unvaccinated people and want them to 1.) be locked up, 2.) be denied medical care, 3.) starve and/or 4.) die.

    By the way, your term “anti-vaxxer” is bulls**t. That term now includes anybody who opposes mandated vaccines.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success. They will be using it in fact to make flu vaccines more effective. Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot.

    If there is a future SARs outbreak they will be able to dial up mRNA vaccines quickly. They really are an amazing technology that "just happen" to come from a Bad White country.

    The anti-vaxx side was wrong and they should just man up and admit it.

    Real men admit when they are wrong and move on. It really should have been over when the hospitals were overloaded with the unvaccinated. That was the time to throw in the towel and not double down on conspiracy theories from AM radio hosts and Doctors with econ degrees.

    I have been part of a losing movement before and I know how it feels. Sucks but you gotta cut your losses and move on.

    The real conspiracy in the West is race denial and not this damn virus that most likely came from China f-king with it.

    Replies: @Dmon, @Mr. Anon, @The Anti-Gnostic, @Thoughts

  107. anon[871] • Disclaimer says:

    In King County, WA, which has >70% vaccination rate, even though the infection rate for Omicron is high, averaging over 5,000 cases a day, the hospitalization rate is very low, at 1.1%, and the death rate even lower, <0.06%(the flu is at 0.4%). It's time to treat Covid or at least Omicron for what it is, a bad cold.

    A whole lot of kerfuffle over a bad cold.

    Omicron may just be the gift from God to help us stem out Covid once and for all. Its high rate of transmission means lots of people will get it, but its mildness means we will get the immunity without being really sick. It's a natural vaccine to help get us to herd immunity. Shutting down everything is the exact opposite of what we should be doing.

  108. @Rob

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It’s a tendency, not a low of nature (I’ll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).
     
    I’d really like to see this. I think that people, even evolutionary biologists are thinking in terms of “the virus” maximizing its fitness. Except there is no “the virus.” There are millions-billions of individual genomes in an infection. Most of them differ from most of the others in small detail. In one person’s infection, the viruses cannot cooperate to decide not to infect the lower respiratory tract. Genomes that end up lower in the respiratory tract and happen to be okay-ish to good at infecting that tissue replicate. Eventually getting deep in your lungs, even though “the virus” would benefit from keeping you walking around and sneezing/breathing/snotting virus on everything.

    The only way I think a virus could evolve to be less deadly is when the virus is not killing you by turning your lungs into goo. Instead, your immune reaction is killing you. Specifically, the cellular/tissue antiviral response. Within each cell, especially if it’s only infected by one virion, every genome that can avoid some/all/delay the cellular antiviral response benefits. Also, avoid cell-mediated immunity and antibody-dependent cytotoxicity. This assumes that you have some other way of beating the infection before it actually does turn you to goo. Not sure if “loose” virus in the tissue or lumen counts. This strikes me as a tragedy of the commons situation. Genomes that limit their reproduction “for the good of the species (infection)” will just get swamped by genomes that pumped out as many copies of themselves as possible.

    Am I totally off?

    If I remember correctly, we have lots of adaptations for clearing viral infections. Adaptations are usually crafted by selection. I don’t think avoiding “feel cruddy for a week” would have given us so many adaptations to deal with infections. People with severe immunodeficiencies, like “bubble boy” can die of “opportunistic” infections, which implies to me that infections aren’t limiting their virulence, each of us is limiting their virulence.

    I’m interested in seeing where I (or a bunch of virologists) have made mistakes. Fingers crossed that I’m wrong. It would sure be nice if viruses limited their virulence for us.

    Replies: @Rob, @ic1000, @anon

    > I’d really like to see [a link to an article about pathogens evolving to become milder].

    Rob, I was trying for a top-line summary, and your understanding of the mechanics is already nuanced.

    [MORE]

    Here is a press release from Northeastern University, touting their faculty.

    “If you think about a virus, what’s the purpose? What’s the virus trying to do?” asks [Prof.] Jared Auclair…

    It’s trying to stay alive, he says. And “if the virus kills someone, if it kills the host, it dies with the host. So it totally defeats the purpose.”

    Because the goal of a virus is to survive, replicate, and spread, it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly. There are exceptions and other factors, but in general, says Auclair, that’s what virologists expect to see occur with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

    Although a virulent strain of political correctness has infected Nature‘s editors and compromised its integrity, its News Features are still generally informative on technical matters. This 12/7/21 article by Ewen Calloway hits on the point we are discussing. (It generally holds up well, five weeks later.)

    Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson, says the virus must balance its ability to replicate to high levels in people’s airways with the need to keep them healthy enough to infect new hosts. “The virus doesn’t want to put someone in bed and make them sick enough that they’re not encountering a number of other people,” he says. One way for the virus to thread this needle would be to evolve to grow to lower levels in people’s airways, but maintain infections for a longer period of time, increasing the number of new hosts exposed to the virus, says [Andrew Rambaut of U. Edinburgh]. “Ultimately there’s going to be trade-off between how much virus you can produce and how quickly you elicit the immune system.” By lying low, SARS-CoV-2 could ensure its continued spread.

    If the virus evolved in this way, it might become less severe, but that outcome is far from certain. “There’s this assumption that something more transmissible becomes less virulent. I don’t think that’s the position we should take,” says [Francois Balloux of UCL]. Variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta have been linked to heightened rates of hospitalization and death — potentially because they grow to such high levels in people’s airways. The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.”

    Even formal physical laws such as “Wokeness ruins everything” can manifest themselves unevenly. Here is a 1/9/22 interview from thoroughly corrupt NPR Weekend Edition that offers some insights.

    Interviewer Ayesha Rascoe: So one theory that we’ve heard a lot about recently is that viruses tend to mutate to become weaker over time. Is that right? And if so, why?

    Computational biologist Jennie Lavine: The currency for viruses is they want to be as transmissible as possible. From their evolutionary perspective, they don’t really care whether or not they’re causing disease in you as long as you’re going to transmit it. So if a virus can make more particles, it’s probably going to do better. But if at some point, it’s making so many particles, replicating so much inside you that it’s making you super sick, at that point, you might not go out. You might not go to a party. You might not go to work. Worst-case scenario [from the virus’ perspective] – you might die. That can lead to this relationship between how severe the disease is and how transmissible it is such that when a disease gets too severe, it’s not good for the virus anymore.

    RASCOE: Tell us about the history of the common cold. It killed people. When was that? And why did it evolve the way it does, where today it’s just the common cold?

    LAVINE: In the late 1800s, there was a pandemic which was termed at the time the Russian flu. People have gone back now, and there’s two lines of evidence that suggest it’s possible that that was actually the origin of one of the four endemic coronaviruses, Human Coronavirus OC43. Everybody listening to this show has been infected with OC43. The Russian flu killed millions of people, it was huge. And the symptoms were surprisingly similar to what we are seeing today with SARS-CoV-2. It included things like neurological symptoms, that are not necessarily associated with what we think of as the flu. It included loss of sense of smell and taste at times. It’s a pretty interesting hypothesis.

    • Thanks: MEH 0910
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @ic1000

    It should be noted that a new variation can be less lethal in part to all the people that were killed off in the first wave. There were most likely vulnerable people that would not have survived the mutation had it been first. The flu is a less lethal variant but still kills thousands a year.

    We probably lucked out with Omicron. It appears to have mutated in mice as a highly contagious but less lethal form.

    People including the media are saying it is from South Africa but that is actually unlikely. That is where it was detected and much of the continent simply doesn't have the technology to track variants.

    The best we can do is have it spread among the unvaccinated. This would actually be a great time to have some anti-vaxx conferences.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Rob
    @ic1000

    Thank you for the links. I hate to praise myself, but more than that I love to. I don’t see how they can be right, just given “the” virus is not a thing, there are a whole bunch of individual genomes evolving each on its own following short-term gain because that’s just how evolution rolls.

    Also, the teleology! “The virus wants...” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo. There’s just no way the quasispecies, the “cloud” of viral genomes in sequence space, can punish a genome that goes a little deeper into the lungs or replicates a little more vigorously than would be optimal for the group of viruses in some poor bastard’s airways to spread to some other unfortunate soul.

    I think my objections are fatal to the general theory or “tendency.”

    Does anyone want to venture an opinion? Is there something I'm just not taking into account?

    Maybe if few enough pathogens are transferred to each new host that virulence-causing adaptations are lost and hard to reacquire?

    Thank you again for the links.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @John Johnson, @ic1000

  109. @Ben Kurtz
    Omicron isn't even the flu. It's just a bad cold. Ask me how I know.

    In Florida, for the most part Covid is a headache for nursing home administrators and a distant memory for normal folks.

    Covid's continuing severe impact on schoolchildren and working adults in Blue areas is now an entirely political and quasi-religious phenomenon, not a medical phenomenon.

    Replies: @Whereismyhandle, @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D, @Alrenous

    Ran out, but big AGREE here, Ben. I’m not in a blue area, but there are vestiges of this PanicFest around, and occasional suggestions/threats of a re-start by government and school officials in case we don’t behave and people keep getting sick. Remember, the precedents have been set.

    Peak Stupidity, time permitting, will have our Menstruation Nation post coming out later in the bidness day. (I liked “Menopause Nation” too, but it didn’t fit my downloaded image.)

    • Replies: @anon
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I'm in a blue area, and the COVID panicfest is very much in full swing here. It's ramped up significantly over the past 30-45 days. Masks mandates in schools, mask mandates in restaurants and stores, growing vaccine mandates. Many of the local NPR/Whole Foods class continue to be significantly personally afraid of COVID and of being around unmasked or unvaccinated people.

  110. @ic1000
    @Rob

    > I’d really like to see [a link to an article about pathogens evolving to become milder].

    Rob, I was trying for a top-line summary, and your understanding of the mechanics is already nuanced.

    Here is a press release from Northeastern University, touting their faculty.


    “If you think about a virus, what’s the purpose? What’s the virus trying to do?” asks [Prof.] Jared Auclair...

    It’s trying to stay alive, he says. And “if the virus kills someone, if it kills the host, it dies with the host. So it totally defeats the purpose.”

    Because the goal of a virus is to survive, replicate, and spread, it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly. There are exceptions and other factors, but in general, says Auclair, that’s what virologists expect to see occur with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
     
    Although a virulent strain of political correctness has infected Nature's editors and compromised its integrity, its News Features are still generally informative on technical matters. This 12/7/21 article by Ewen Calloway hits on the point we are discussing. (It generally holds up well, five weeks later.)

    Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson, says the virus must balance its ability to replicate to high levels in people’s airways with the need to keep them healthy enough to infect new hosts. “The virus doesn’t want to put someone in bed and make them sick enough that they’re not encountering a number of other people,” he says. One way for the virus to thread this needle would be to evolve to grow to lower levels in people’s airways, but maintain infections for a longer period of time, increasing the number of new hosts exposed to the virus, says [Andrew Rambaut of U. Edinburgh]. “Ultimately there’s going to be trade-off between how much virus you can produce and how quickly you elicit the immune system.” By lying low, SARS-CoV-2 could ensure its continued spread.

    If the virus evolved in this way, it might become less severe, but that outcome is far from certain. “There’s this assumption that something more transmissible becomes less virulent. I don’t think that’s the position we should take,” says [Francois Balloux of UCL]. Variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta have been linked to heightened rates of hospitalization and death — potentially because they grow to such high levels in people’s airways. The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.”
     
    Even formal physical laws such as "Wokeness ruins everything" can manifest themselves unevenly. Here is a 1/9/22 interview from thoroughly corrupt NPR Weekend Edition that offers some insights.

    Interviewer Ayesha Rascoe: So one theory that we've heard a lot about recently is that viruses tend to mutate to become weaker over time. Is that right? And if so, why?

    Computational biologist Jennie Lavine: The currency for viruses is they want to be as transmissible as possible. From their evolutionary perspective, they don't really care whether or not they're causing disease in you as long as you're going to transmit it. So if a virus can make more particles, it's probably going to do better. But if at some point, it's making so many particles, replicating so much inside you that it's making you super sick, at that point, you might not go out. You might not go to a party. You might not go to work. Worst-case scenario [from the virus' perspective] - you might die. That can lead to this relationship between how severe the disease is and how transmissible it is such that when a disease gets too severe, it's not good for the virus anymore.

    RASCOE: Tell us about the history of the common cold. It killed people. When was that? And why did it evolve the way it does, where today it's just the common cold?

    LAVINE: In the late 1800s, there was a pandemic which was termed at the time the Russian flu. People have gone back now, and there's two lines of evidence that suggest it's possible that that was actually the origin of one of the four endemic coronaviruses, Human Coronavirus OC43. Everybody listening to this show has been infected with OC43. The Russian flu killed millions of people, it was huge. And the symptoms were surprisingly similar to what we are seeing today with SARS-CoV-2. It included things like neurological symptoms, that are not necessarily associated with what we think of as the flu. It included loss of sense of smell and taste at times. It's a pretty interesting hypothesis.
     

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Rob

    It should be noted that a new variation can be less lethal in part to all the people that were killed off in the first wave. There were most likely vulnerable people that would not have survived the mutation had it been first. The flu is a less lethal variant but still kills thousands a year.

    We probably lucked out with Omicron. It appears to have mutated in mice as a highly contagious but less lethal form.

    People including the media are saying it is from South Africa but that is actually unlikely. That is where it was detected and much of the continent simply doesn’t have the technology to track variants.

    The best we can do is have it spread among the unvaccinated. This would actually be a great time to have some anti-vaxx conferences.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @John Johnson


    It should be noted that a new variation can be less lethal in part to all the people that were killed off in the first wave.
     
    Sure. They're already dead. Though they can hang out on doorknobs for 4 to 6 weeks, those viruses can't tunnel 6 ft. under the ground.
  111. “if it’s just random luck that this more infectious variant happens to be less dangerous”

    I was under the impression that corona viruses naturally evolve into highly infectious but less lethal variants. If COVID-19 jumps from Omicron-it’s-just-the-cold-bro to something that is as contagious and more dangerous then we’ll know the USAMRIID aerosol units have been busy.

    “Hopefully, therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills will prove safe and effective”

    safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective safe and effective …

    LMFAO. Steve, our beloved Boomer.

  112. @Ben Kurtz
    Omicron isn't even the flu. It's just a bad cold. Ask me how I know.

    In Florida, for the most part Covid is a headache for nursing home administrators and a distant memory for normal folks.

    Covid's continuing severe impact on schoolchildren and working adults in Blue areas is now an entirely political and quasi-religious phenomenon, not a medical phenomenon.

    Replies: @Whereismyhandle, @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D, @Alrenous

    One man’s bad cold is another man’s fatal disease is another man’s “I tested positive and I didn’t even know that I had it”. That’s how it goes. Now Omicron is not a fatal disease to most people but for maybe 1 person in 1,000 it is. When you apply that to 300 million people it’s still a lot of deaths.

    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @Jack D

    Re-read my comment about Omicron being a headache for nursing home administrators.

    The residents in nursing home care are indeed unusually apt to die from any random cold or flu. It doesn't have to be named Omicron.

    We've never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage. The last two years have reminded us why.

    Replies: @HA, @HA

  113. Meanwhile, the usual in Eugene. Six shot outside a concert by a black rap group. One critical, no fatalities yet. Witnesses not cooperative.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/six-people-hospitalized-shooting-eugene-oregon-concert-1285363/amp/

  114. anon[340] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    @Ben Kurtz

    Ran out, but big AGREE here, Ben. I'm not in a blue area, but there are vestiges of this PanicFest around, and occasional suggestions/threats of a re-start by government and school officials in case we don't behave and people keep getting sick. Remember, the precedents have been set.

    Peak Stupidity, time permitting, will have our Menstruation Nation post coming out later in the bidness day. (I liked "Menopause Nation" too, but it didn't fit my downloaded image.)

    Replies: @anon

    I’m in a blue area, and the COVID panicfest is very much in full swing here. It’s ramped up significantly over the past 30-45 days. Masks mandates in schools, mask mandates in restaurants and stores, growing vaccine mandates. Many of the local NPR/Whole Foods class continue to be significantly personally afraid of COVID and of being around unmasked or unvaccinated people.

  115. @Mr. Anon
    @That Would Be Telling


    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers
     
    Don't worry. There's still time. We're still all pullin' for ya', "That would be telling".

    Then there is this guy:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/business/media/carlos-tejada-dead.html

    Of course there's no proof that Mr. Tejada died from the vaccine. He just happened to die within one day of getting a booster shot.

    It's not like the media would ever report that an alarmingly high number of people were dying from the vaccine. They are entirely in the pocket of big pharma. That is not something they would ever say if it were true.


    ..........., and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.
     
    Excuse me? Who is more desperate and vitriolic? The only people I see throwing vitriol around are the politicians and celebrities who publicly denounce unvaccinated people and want them to 1.) be locked up, 2.) be denied medical care, 3.) starve and/or 4.) die.

    By the way, your term "anti-vaxxer" is bulls**t. That term now includes anybody who opposes mandated vaccines.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success. They will be using it in fact to make flu vaccines more effective. Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot.

    If there is a future SARs outbreak they will be able to dial up mRNA vaccines quickly. They really are an amazing technology that “just happen” to come from a Bad White country.

    The anti-vaxx side was wrong and they should just man up and admit it.

    Real men admit when they are wrong and move on. It really should have been over when the hospitals were overloaded with the unvaccinated. That was the time to throw in the towel and not double down on conspiracy theories from AM radio hosts and Doctors with econ degrees.

    I have been part of a losing movement before and I know how it feels. Sucks but you gotta cut your losses and move on.

    The real conspiracy in the West is race denial and not this damn virus that most likely came from China f-king with it.

    • Replies: @Dmon
    @John Johnson

    "Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot."

    Based on the continually diminishing interval between mandatory boosters, I'm expecting a weekly Covid shot.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @John Johnson


    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.
     
    The vaccines have killed people - probably many thousands. For many demographic groups, there is a greater chance of death or injury from the vaccines than from COVID. People in that group who took the vaccine and died exchanged an insignificant probability of death from COVID for...............death. That's a crappy bargain. The people who pushed this lunacy should be held to account. People who mandated it should be punished.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success.
     
    The suck at creating immunity - the chief function of a vaccine. The primary and only function really according to the CDC as of August 2021. The COVID vaccines were so bad at creating immunity that the CDC actually changed their definition of what a vaccine does. That is a matter of public record.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @The Anti-Gnostic
    @John Johnson

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn't even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It's not looking good.

    https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

    Replies: @John Johnson, @HA

    , @Thoughts
    @John Johnson

    AntiVaxxers were wrong because People Didn't Turn into Zombies?

    WHAT?!?!?!!

    What AntiVaxxers Said:

    Green Passes
    Multiple Shots that would lose effectiveness fast
    Side Effects that would be discovered later

    It all happened

    The only question is...did the blood clot/myocarditis side effects cause some deaths that have been improperly classified and how many years will they take to admit it?

    [There were also autoimmune disorders, reactivated EBV, cycle problems in women, Bell's Palsy, GB, tinnitus, bizarre nerve pains that may be GB misdiagnosed etc etc]

    The anti-vaxxers ROUNDLY won. The people...without known comorbidities...who took the vaccine were taking a far greater risk by being vaccinated then by catching Covid. If you had a comorbidity, vaccination should have been a decision between you and your doctor.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  116. As posted before—– One of the best contra-Covids and any other virus the PLA/CCP come up with. This is D3, and getting yours up to 90 ng/ml. Get yours checked. I got my 3rd D3 levels report yesterday. 75 is my number. Take D3 with K2 and a magnesium supplement. Amazon and others have inexpensive D3 10000 units, and cost as much as D3 5000 units. If you think 10000 D3 daily is too much, then take it every second day. 5000 international units (iu) is the minimum daily these days
    https://www.walmart.com/ip/Vitamin-D-10000-IU-400-Softgels-Value-Size-Max-Potency-Non-GMO-Gluten-Free-Supplement-by-Carlyle/900550437

    I now believe the PLA/CCP spread Covid19 on purpose. Starting off with “salting” the military athletes games held in Wuhan in October 2019. Many athletes got a mysterious sickness.illness at these games. That nations worldwide sent their athletes to. Athletes drawn from their militaries. What a great place for the PLA/CCP to kick off their Covid19 campaign, making war on everyone else.
    Meanwhile, the Chinese had already developed their Covid19 vaccine for their own people, ahead of spreading Covid19 far and wide. This is what I am theorizing.

    • Replies: @dimples
    @clyde

    This is the only information I have read concerning what the athletes actually got:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10382127/Canadian-military-officer-calls-probe-ground-zero-Covid-outbreak-Wuhan-games.html

    Quote:

    "Tagliariol's claims were challenged later by a team-mate while Swedish pentathlete Melina Westerberg said that while several of her squad were sick at the Games, they tested negative for the virus. 'It was just a coincidence.'"

  117. @ganderson
    @Hypnotoad666

    We’re starting to lock back down here in Western Massachusetts. Amherst and Smith Colleges have announced they will begin the semester remotely. Amherst has banned spectators from its indoor athletic events, and Amherst and Smith, as well as the local high school have banned cloth masks- you must wear an N 95 or whatever the hell they’re called, or be, and I’m not making this up, double masked. My hand surgery has been postponed till who knows when, Municipalities are debating whether to redefine fully vaccinated as 3 jabs.
    Oh and the MIAA, the governing board for high school athletics in the state, has reaffirmed that all winter indoor athletes, mainly hoops and hockey, must wear masks while they are playing. The mask requirement for pupils in class has been extended to at least mid February, The MTA, the statewide teachers’ union, is lobbying heavily for a return to remote classes; so far sausage-spined RINO governor Charlie BakerParker is resisting- we’ll see if that continues.
    My wife had NPR on while she was cooking dinner the other night- it was a non stop 45 minutes of CoronaPanic. My local Hampshire county daily paper is all panic, all the time. Two of our neighbors, who normally walk their dogs with my wife refused to do it this week because we had been to Michigan and back over the weekend. And yes, we’re all vaccinated.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Brutusale, @kaganovitch

    I’m sorry to hear about all your grief up there in western Mass, Mr. Ganderson, especially regarding your favorite activity, hockey. To me making a requirement for people to wear masks during exercise is not only unhealthy, not only ludicrous, but a real example of how the officials want to rub their authority in.

    If I didn’t think they were really, really stupid (most are), my next guess would be that they are having a little fun with their evil ways – “Oh, yeah, you think double-masking is hilarious? In my city, I’m gonna require them in swimming pools, and then … here hold my beer. Watch this!”

    • Replies: @Buckaroo
    @Achmed E. Newman

    And here I was thinking that it is eastern Massachusetts that can't be topped for its Covidian cult/panic/insanity. I regularly see masked people jogging before 6am when I (on my bike) and they are the only human beings in a quarter mile radius. Do they think the virus works like radiation? The imbecillic and totalitarian requirement of masking outside went away last year so they are doing this voluntarily. Needless to say, during the day well over 80% of people on the streets of Boston are facediapered.

    To be clear, I am a liberal in the classic sense and normally wouldn't care if these people wore hazmat suits whenever they stepped out of their own bathrooms. But they are clearly just itching to impose their paranoia and fascist tendencies on everyone else. Or re-impose. Or perma-pose. You get the idea.

    And since we seem to be keeping score here: the fam and I got vaxxed and boosted, mainly to make travel abroad possible. But, despite being as careless as the law allows otherwise, none of us got the coof. I am starting to feel left out.

    Replies: @Anonymous

  118. @John Johnson
    @prosa123

    My take on all this: anyone who’s squeakin’ and squawkin’ about how this is a Guaranteed Death Sentence and that we must stay locked indoor forever should be declared paranoid schizophrenic and thrown in the funny farm.

    Fatalities were never the main problem with Delta. I really don't care about what CNN decides to exaggerate. My opinions are based on medical data. I don't watch cable news of any type.

    The problem was that anti-vaxxers would end up on a ventilator when there are only so many beds available. Then they come out with damaged lungs and need drugs and physical therapy for months. It's extremely expensive in comparison to getting the vaccine. Many of these patients will easily rack up over half a million in medical bills. Some of them are too damaged to return to work and will be on disability.

    Hospitals normally operate close to capacity. A pandemic can overload them and that is exactly what happened with Delta. My local hospital was overloaded and there were actually patients waiting in ambulances for a bed.

    With Omicron the cases are less severe and the hospital stays are shorter. In some areas ventilators aren't even being used.

    None of this should be a surprise to anyone that has read about viruses. This is what often happens over time which is that a less severe but more contagious mutation takes over. It spreads faster and then provides protection against the more severe strain. But unfortunately this is only a general rule as they can also mutate and turn deadly again. It is good however that Omicron spreads quickly since that makes burn-out more likely. We want it to spread and burn out before another mutation starts circulating among waning protection.

    My guess is that this is the end of the pandemic and the mandates will be dropped. I correctly predicted the Delta surge and decline unlike all of the anti-vaxx leaders. So we will see if I can go 2/2.

    Replies: @peterike

    The problem was that anti-vaxxers would end up on a ventilator when there are only so many beds available.

    First, your premise is mostly bullshit. But in any case, a ventilator is exactly the wrong treatment for Covid. This has been known for well over a year, yet hospitals are still putting people on them. It’s basically deliberate murder at this point, but it comes with a fat check for the hospital, so shut up.

    The perfidy of our medical establishment is genuinely limitless.

    Also, there has never been a bed shortage other than perhaps very briefly in very limited areas. It’s all lies.

    Then they come out with damaged lungs and need drugs and physical therapy for months.

    Mostly they don’t come out at all.

    It’s extremely expensive in comparison to getting the vaccine.

    It’s also extremely expensive compared to the well understood medical treatments that are cheap and effective, yet being deliberately blocked.

  119. @Dieter Kief
    @Hypnotoad666


    we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime 
     
    - in the beginning, nobody knew how this thing would play out. If I'm right, your claim implies the likes of Steve Sailer and Greg Cochran and Ron Unz et. al. - in the light of this - act - i think your claim about the voluntary destruction of the economy is not absolutely plausible, to choose the weakest version of my contradiction here.

    On a different note: Pandemics are perfect petri dishes for all kinds of ghosts in our basements to have a King's Banquet with - if my metaphor is halfwayst on track.

    Put more bluntly: Pandemics are not least occasions in which - - - we, as societies, show (and have to deal with) rather dark (= half-conscious / subconscious) regions which - per definition - are no places where nothing but sound reasons emerge. There's angst there, in those darker regions of our selves, and suspicions, hate, confusion, inner turmoil etc. pp. - . Thing is: We can only tell in retrospect, who really had a clear mind (Jackson Browne - "(...) it takes a clear mind to make it" (in his version of the song Cocaine....).

    Now that we're through with this Covid thing (or close to being through), I started to reflect about it and what I can say while looking  back at close to seven hundred days which saw me on average at least an hour / day - often more - trying to figure out what was going on, this one thing that I take home with me is the sentence by Sigmund Freud: The voice of reason is speaking softly. Here I think of Martin Kulldorff and John Ioannidis, and of an outsider: science blogger Hail to You - all of them champions of this debate - and of some commenters here or on Ron Unz' site like like ic1000 and the tirelessly arguing That would be telling (and quite a few others too). Coolest - and softest spoken - dudes of all: Johan Giesecke and his pupil and successor Anders Tegnell in Sweden (Freddy Sayers of UnHerd TV did a great job interviewing them).

    The next best thing after being soft-spoken or maybe the best thing even, is if the debaters are able to show self-irony. Like Michael Levitt did and Ivor Cummins and - the lovely! and heartwarmingly clear Swiss retired virology professor Beda M. Stadler, whom Ivor Cummins features prominently in his Covid documentary film.

    For me personally Stadler with his articles in the Swiss press and his TV-appearances in Swiss and Austrian first rank TV-talk-shows and news-shows and his guest-appearances on Burkhard Müller-Ullrich's very soft spoken and here and there self-ironic podcast Idubio of the German site Achgut.Com, where the Swiss Professor Stadler appeared regularly, made the biggest difference. Together with the German family-doctor and well known medical writer Gunter Frank, who wrote ca. eighty very well informed articles on Achgut.Com and did publish a decent book about covid called "Der Staats Virus" ( = the Virus who was created by the state and who affected the state...). 

    Lots of others were not either soft spoken and / or self-ironic, and did raise some interesting questions, but they were often times contaminated with outlandish speculations (Rainer Fuellmich, Dr. Wodarg, Dr. Malone...).

    All in all I'd hold, that the real difference made those who knew how to stay cool and - how to differentiate between facts and predictions. Statistics seemed to be the biggest hurdle for most who paticipapted in this debate - here the science blogger Orwell2024 was doing great work, and the British mathematician Norman Fenton (both are on twitter).

    The best Covid rant was Joe Rogan's - by a mile - if not by two: Removed from youtube - the three-minute-clip in which he says, that he has not been ill for years - that he thinks, that not moving your lazy bones while being severely overweight is maybe the most damaging Covid-risk-factor - way worse than getting the jab - or not... - which, I think, could quite easily turn out to be - at least quite close to the truth. But except for that: This short clip is the great anti-panic Covid-performance!

    Replies: @anon, @ic1000

    DK, your comment prompted me to go back to the Great Barrington Declaration. It was posted on October 4, 2020, over a month before evidence of the efficacy and reasonable safety of Pfizer’s jab became known.

    With the benefit of fifteen months’ hindsight, this short essay reads very well indeed! A map for the Road Not Taken.

    It returned to the headlines last month, when news broke that Narrative celebrities had worked behind the scenes to suffocate reasoned discussion of the GBD’s core idea, Focused Protection. From STATnews, the FOIA’d 10/8/20 email from NIH supremo Francis Collins to Anthony Fauci and others. Thanks to its brevity, the force of their anti-intellectual dogmatism shines through.

    Hi Tony and Cliff,

    See https://gbdeclaration.org/ This proposal from three fringe epidemiologists who met with the Secretary seems to be getting a lot of attention – and even a co-signature from Nobel Prize winner Mike Leavitt at Stanford. There needs to be a quick and devastating published takedown of its premises. I don’t see anything like that on line yet – is it underway?

    Francis

    [MORE]

    Further thoughts:

    * The vaccines seemed to achieve near-complete “sterilizing immunity” against the SARS-CoV-2 strains that were circulating in the first half of 2021. If that had held, it would have created common policy ground between the doctrinaire public-health/medical establishment and Focused Protection advocates. The establishment was unwittingly and foolishly placing a multi-trillion-dollar bet that sterilizing immunity would continue — even though it was generally known by October that this bet had already gone bust.

    * In the past week, I’ve put some time into looking for safety information on vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. It is very difficult to find solid statistical treatments of this very important subject. My qualitative impression — which seems to be shared by Martin Kulldorff of the GBF and the Attia podcast interview referenced earlier — is that the mRNA vaccines are on the “more risky” side of the “generally safe” window. The issue of greatest concern appears to be vaccine-provoked myocarditis among healthy young men, in the days and weeks after a second or third (booster) dose. Given that SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild in this group, especially after one dose, the case for repeat jabs does not appear to be supported by risk/reward analysis.

    * To be clear, I remain strongly pro-vaxx. For older people and people with comorbidities, the risk/reward case for vaccination and boosting appears very strong. However, given the vaccinated’s susceptibility to infection by new variants, herd immunity arguments are invalid. “You owe it to society” boils down to “be prudent in your behavior so as not to overburden hospitals.” That strikes me as a weak justification for coercive policies that violate the principal of Autonomy. And how does one weigh the justified loss of trust in medicine and public health, when the antics of people like Fauci, Collins, and Biden — among others — come to light?

    • Replies: @clyde
    @ic1000

    Dr. Deborah Birx, also known as 'the scarf lady,' and her partners in crime, the still at-large Dr. Anthony Fauci and NIH supremo Francis Collins. What I have been reading about the nice grandmotherly looking lady, the scarf lady. Is that she was very active behind the scenes in bureaucratic maneuvering while Trump was President. That she was quite adept at suppressing those working under Trump, who wanted to look into other ways to counter-Covid, besides vaxx, vaxx, vaxx and more boosters every 4-5 months. One of the mega-Pharmas said they were developing an annual shot flu shot and Covix-xyz, all rolled into one, a glorious combo injection for your protection. Unz poster HA says that he will be first in line where he lives.

    So look for more pro-vaxxxxxxx hysteria.hypochondria annually, in the early fall as the winter flu and Covid-xxx season approaches. Just when we are voting in early November, thus justifying mail in ballots and vote harvesting forever, the prime election cheat the Dems have. And none dare call this conspiracy and collusion.

    , @Mark G.
    @ic1000


    To be clear, I remain strongly pro-vaxx.
     
    You come across as calm and reasonable and not the type of person to engage in high levels of verbal abuse. There has been a little too much verbal abuse on both sides and I'm guilty of that myself. To make this a less emotional issue, it would be better to take it outside the realm of politics and make it a matter of individual choice.

    Good doctors tailor treatments to each individual patient rather than using a "one size fits all" approach. If you allow them to use the treatments they want and allow patients to pick the doctors they want there should be no problem. I would not be for banning something like Ivermectin but I also would not be for banning the vaccines either. It's hard to do a risk-benefit analysis of the vaccines since we don't know the future risks but so far it appears they do a good job of reducing deaths among older people. The only major side effects, as you mention, appear to be among younger people.

    Once doctors can decide whether they want to use conventional treatments, alternative treatments or vaccines then insurance companies can decide what they are going to pay for. Private companies and government agencies can decide whether to require vaccines for their employees. I work for the military and was required to get vaccinated. If I didn't want to do that I could have quit or retired since I'm 65. I don't think state vaccine mandates are a good idea but at least there you don't have the same Constitutional issues that caused the Supreme Court to strike down the federal mandate for private employers. Let the voters in each state decide what they want their state government to do.
    , @Dieter Kief
    @ic1000

    Marin Kulldorff was astonishingly right from the beginning - as was Michael Levitt. - What if this lucid little article by him from spring 2020 (!) had not been banned and smeared, but openly discussed in the main stream:

    https://medium.com/@michael.levitt/the-excess-burden-of-death-from-coronavirus-covid-19-is-closer-to-a-month-than-to-a-year-83fca74455b4

    The headline - Excess Burden of Covid Death Closer to One Month Than to a Year!

    (That still sounds astonishing - and might still come as a surprise to many a reader...).

    Replies: @Clyde, @utu

  120. @Hangnail Hans
    @Dumbo


    I don’t even believe “Omicron” exists
     
    Well I had it last week and I can't recommend it enough. Gives you a night or two of solid ten hours sleep, then you're fresh as a daisy.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Well I had it last week and I can’t recommend it enough. Gives you a night or two of solid ten hours sleep, then you’re fresh as a daisy.

    I had a light case that didn’t even last 48 hours. Felt great the whole time. Was doing chores outside and actually forgot that I had it.

    It honestly feels good to get it out of the way.

    The media is horrified by stories of people intentionally getting it but that honestly isn’t a bad idea if you are certain of getting it anyways. Some people have trips planned and are trying to get it early. Anyone that is around the public is going to get it even with a kn95 mask.

    There is also mental relief in knowing that you have had it. I was never that worried but really didn’t want to be down for a week or two which is what happens to some people.

    • Replies: @Hangnail Hans
    @John Johnson

    Agreed; I only hope that our suppositions regarding the immunity thus conferred are at least roughly accurate.

  121. @Erik L
    looking at the graphs in the study, they show cumulative probability of death for even the delta variant as below 0.1%. Isn't that the low end CFR number for seasonal flu?

    Replies: @HA

    “looking at the graphs in the study, they show cumulative probability of death for even the delta variant as below 0.1%. Isn’t that the low end CFR number for seasonal flu?”

    It is indeed, if most of the population is vaxxed, which thankfully it is. For them, it really has been pretty much just-a-flu this past year. When the just-a-flu-bros pop in to remind us that there were more COVID deaths in 2021 than in 2020, they forget to also mention that their own Darwin awards are the primary reason for that.

    That being the case, maybe it would make them feel better if we changed their cause of death listing from COVID to “irony”.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @HA

    You exaggerate a bit. All cause excess deaths didn't really start taking off in the US until the end of March (and we were somewhat unprepared due to CDC ineptness plus FDA malevolence sandbagging testing), while COVID was serious for all of 2021, with Alpha became the most prevalent strain in March. As I recall, general vaccine availability didn't happen until April or so.

    But you're generally right, or as John Nolte put it, "Data Confirms Trump Counties Dying to Own the Libs." Irony indeed.

    , @Erik L
    @HA

    Agreed, the lower CFR is because of vaccination, immunity acquired from infection, and the dying of a large number of the vulnerable. From my point of view it supports my position that once everyone who wanted to be vaccinated had ample opportunity (last June) all restrictions should have ended except for occasional local ones in areas of rapid case rise

    Replies: @HA

  122. @Greta Handel
    @Dumbo

    Spend a while with the Search tool, and you’ll see that


    Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed “high IQ” HDB crowd
     
    took comfort Noticing how blacks, the less formally educated, the working class, and other foreign tribes disproportionately declined the Big Pharma injections. (Karlin explicitly crowed about COVID culling his inferiors.)

    Even now, Mr. Sailer avoids mention of apparently efficacious therapeutics like Ivermectin, hiding in plain sight despite being censored by the Establishment. Smart white guys would rather datanerd and place their hopes in

    therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills [proving] safe and effective. At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omnicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply. But it seems not unlikely that we will get a reprieve for awhile so that if — or perhaps when — the next damn thing comes along, we’ll by then have enough of these two medicines on hand.
     
    Status insecurity remains at high levels.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy, @RonaldB, @BB753, @Wade Hampton

    Oh, please – be reasonable! Who wouldn’t trust Pfizer’s new medicine after their sterling safety record with the vaccine? [sarcasm alert]

  123. So apparently the hope for some is covid peters out naturally and we all forget. No accountability for the myriad crimes, no repair of the damage done to medicine, society and the economy and not even the assurance it won’t happen again–rather the likelihood it will. Covid wasn’t the first time they tried this move. Why would it be the last? If the virus itself didn’t quite have the legs, isn’t it amazing what they managed to achieve with it, in terms of drastic social change? Imagine what a real threat could do (they are imagining it right now, maybe in a lab, believe me).

    They are counting on our exhaustion, just as with war; we’ll be glad to be out of this thing with no appetite for unraveling the grand hoax that reveals us to be credulous dupes.

    • Replies: @vinteuil
    @Dennis Dale


    So apparently the hope for some is covid peters out naturally and we all forget.
     
    Exactly.

    No accountability for the myriad crimes, no repair of the damage done to medicine, society and the economy and not even the assurance it won’t happen again–rather the likelihood it will.
     
    Precisely so.

    Covid wasn’t the first time they tried this move. Why would it be the last? If the virus itself didn’t quite have the legs, isn’t it amazing what they managed to achieve with it, in terms of drastic social change?
     
    Yes.

    Imagine what a real threat could do.
     
    God help us all.
    , @vinteuil
    @Dennis Dale


    No accountability
     
    That is what really, truly burns.

    Anthony Fauci? accountability? As if.
  124. @Hypnotoad666
    So basically, everyone will end up catching the virus, as it mutates to a harmless endemic cold. Exactly as all the virologists prior to 2020 had always predicted and planned for. The only difference being that we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.

    Replies: @tyrone, @El Dato, @Anonymous, @TorontoTraveller, @JR Ewing, @Redman, @ganderson, @Wizard of Oz, @Dieter Kief, @HA, @jamie b.

    “…we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out.”

    In the end, your precious economy won’t change your inevitable demise either, no matter how hot and bothered you are to see it “destroyed”, so I think you got some consistency issues you might want to work through if you really expect anyone outside your echo chamber to take you seriously.

    Some people think limiting a death toll that was projected (fairly well, in hindsight) to be about two million in the US, under a Lukashenko-style let-her-rip policy, to less than a third of that (not including the deaths of anti-vaxxers, because, come on, they’re just getting what they asked for) is a worthwhile endeavor. And that’s basically what happened; the Lukashenkos among us, be they in Israel or Russia or this place — were for the most part dismissed world-wide as the nutjobs that they are.

    The fact that you think all the effort that entailed was nothing but a waste of time kind of explains why no one listens to the likes of you in general. I mean, it’s no wonder the chamber-of-commerce types keep caving in to the cheap-labor immigration lobbies. In the end, it’s all about the economy, am I right? Why would we ever want to anything to upset THAT import-the-masses perpetual-growth Ponzi scheme?

    • Thanks: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    No it isn't about the economy. It's about liberty. It's about living like a human and not a lab rat.

    I no longer expect hysterical cowards with the mentality of a slave - people like you - to understand that.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @HA, @Old Prude

    , @BB753
    @HA

    Except nothing of the sort happened in Belarus, with just 5,574 deaths for a population of 9,439,233.

    Replies: @HA

  125. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    “We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of anti-vaxxers …”

    I’m not an anti-vaxxer. I spent the last year collecting information on the mRNA vaccine and decided it was not for me. I believe the real injuries from the vaccine will come five to ten years out, specifically in the form of immune system destruction.

    “they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic”

    This is projection: as the mRNA vaccines continue to fail in stopping infection-transmission, and the vaccinated begin to join the unvaccinated in hospital wards, the cult — primarily comprised of advanced degreed upper middle class managerial types — that surrounds the pandemic/Holy Vaccine/St. Fauci is becoming uglier and more dangerously deranged as the days pass. Whilst viewing this parade of grotesques I can’t decide whether to laugh, cry, or barf.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Thanks: Redneck farmer
  126. @anon
    @Dieter Kief


    Now that we’re through with this Covid thing (or close to being through)
     
    We may be approaching the end of COVID as a serious killer, but we're nowhere near the end of Corona, the social/political phenomenon. Some of the most severe restrictions on personal liberties, the vaccine passports, are only now being rolled out in major US cities.

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we've done to our societies over the past two years.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Dieter Kief

    We may be approaching the end of COVID as a serious killer, but we’re nowhere near the end of Corona, the social/political phenomenon. Some of the most severe restrictions on personal liberties, the vaccine passports, are only now being rolled out in major US cities.

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we’ve done to our societies over the past two years.

    Agreed. And like the many policies implemented after 9/11, they will never go away. They were not intended to go away. Dealing with a virus was not the purpose of any of it.

  127. @ic1000
    @Rob

    > I’d really like to see [a link to an article about pathogens evolving to become milder].

    Rob, I was trying for a top-line summary, and your understanding of the mechanics is already nuanced.

    Here is a press release from Northeastern University, touting their faculty.


    “If you think about a virus, what’s the purpose? What’s the virus trying to do?” asks [Prof.] Jared Auclair...

    It’s trying to stay alive, he says. And “if the virus kills someone, if it kills the host, it dies with the host. So it totally defeats the purpose.”

    Because the goal of a virus is to survive, replicate, and spread, it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly. There are exceptions and other factors, but in general, says Auclair, that’s what virologists expect to see occur with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
     
    Although a virulent strain of political correctness has infected Nature's editors and compromised its integrity, its News Features are still generally informative on technical matters. This 12/7/21 article by Ewen Calloway hits on the point we are discussing. (It generally holds up well, five weeks later.)

    Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson, says the virus must balance its ability to replicate to high levels in people’s airways with the need to keep them healthy enough to infect new hosts. “The virus doesn’t want to put someone in bed and make them sick enough that they’re not encountering a number of other people,” he says. One way for the virus to thread this needle would be to evolve to grow to lower levels in people’s airways, but maintain infections for a longer period of time, increasing the number of new hosts exposed to the virus, says [Andrew Rambaut of U. Edinburgh]. “Ultimately there’s going to be trade-off between how much virus you can produce and how quickly you elicit the immune system.” By lying low, SARS-CoV-2 could ensure its continued spread.

    If the virus evolved in this way, it might become less severe, but that outcome is far from certain. “There’s this assumption that something more transmissible becomes less virulent. I don’t think that’s the position we should take,” says [Francois Balloux of UCL]. Variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta have been linked to heightened rates of hospitalization and death — potentially because they grow to such high levels in people’s airways. The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.”
     
    Even formal physical laws such as "Wokeness ruins everything" can manifest themselves unevenly. Here is a 1/9/22 interview from thoroughly corrupt NPR Weekend Edition that offers some insights.

    Interviewer Ayesha Rascoe: So one theory that we've heard a lot about recently is that viruses tend to mutate to become weaker over time. Is that right? And if so, why?

    Computational biologist Jennie Lavine: The currency for viruses is they want to be as transmissible as possible. From their evolutionary perspective, they don't really care whether or not they're causing disease in you as long as you're going to transmit it. So if a virus can make more particles, it's probably going to do better. But if at some point, it's making so many particles, replicating so much inside you that it's making you super sick, at that point, you might not go out. You might not go to a party. You might not go to work. Worst-case scenario [from the virus' perspective] - you might die. That can lead to this relationship between how severe the disease is and how transmissible it is such that when a disease gets too severe, it's not good for the virus anymore.

    RASCOE: Tell us about the history of the common cold. It killed people. When was that? And why did it evolve the way it does, where today it's just the common cold?

    LAVINE: In the late 1800s, there was a pandemic which was termed at the time the Russian flu. People have gone back now, and there's two lines of evidence that suggest it's possible that that was actually the origin of one of the four endemic coronaviruses, Human Coronavirus OC43. Everybody listening to this show has been infected with OC43. The Russian flu killed millions of people, it was huge. And the symptoms were surprisingly similar to what we are seeing today with SARS-CoV-2. It included things like neurological symptoms, that are not necessarily associated with what we think of as the flu. It included loss of sense of smell and taste at times. It's a pretty interesting hypothesis.
     

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Rob

    Thank you for the links. I hate to praise myself, but more than that I love to. I don’t see how they can be right, just given “the” virus is not a thing, there are a whole bunch of individual genomes evolving each on its own following short-term gain because that’s just how evolution rolls.

    Also, the teleology! “The virus wants…” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo. There’s just no way the quasispecies, the “cloud” of viral genomes in sequence space, can punish a genome that goes a little deeper into the lungs or replicates a little more vigorously than would be optimal for the group of viruses in some poor bastard’s airways to spread to some other unfortunate soul.

    I think my objections are fatal to the general theory or “tendency.”

    Does anyone want to venture an opinion? Is there something I’m just not taking into account?

    Maybe if few enough pathogens are transferred to each new host that virulence-causing adaptations are lost and hard to reacquire?

    Thank you again for the links.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Rob

    Put very vaguely: the shallower the virus dives into the body the more infectious it is to others and the less deadly it is.

    This is important for natural selection because infectiousness to others is ~8 billion times more important than reaching deeper into the body and infecting more cells.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @John Johnson
    @Rob

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo.

    When your immune system kills you it is normally through what is called a cytokine storm. That is actually not what happens most of the time with COVID. The virus reproduces in your lungs and does so much damage to where you can't breathe. Cytokine storms can be detected in the blood stream so this isn't merely theory.

    The Spanish flu was deadly to soldiers because of the cytokine storm response in the second wave mutation. The better your immune system the more vulnerable you were to it.

    Viruses tend to mutate to become less deadly because they aren't actually trying to kill you. They are more like computer code run amuck and are more likely to reproduce if they linger and transmitting. Thus mutations over time do tend to favor transmissibility instead of lethality. There is no hard and fast rule here though. A virus can mutate to be deadlier and more contagious. For example a virus could mutate to favor a longer asymptomatic phase so more people get it before it starts reproducing like crazy. Spanish flu is a good example because it turned much deadlier after the mutation.

    , @ic1000
    @Rob

    Rob, I do think your rebuttal of the conventional wisdom regarding "viruses get milder" isn't convincing.

    > the teleology! “The virus wants…” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    Maybe cut them some slack. 'Everybody' knows what you are getting at. It's easier to convey concepts this way, although it can lead to misinterpretations. Usually, longer discussions include a demurral, "viruses are inanimate, this language is a shorthand."

    The infecting respiratory-virus virion will turn into a "cloud" if it's able to infect the host. Members of the cloud will have zero to a few mutations, thus will be identical or very closely related to the original. The original virion turns out to be "successful," the more its descendants infect other hosts that beget other "clouds" and so forth.

    So the point remains that, all else being equal, a virion whose descendant "cloud" causes its host to experience mild symptoms (sniffling, coughing, sneezing) for a prolonged period of time will generally be more successful than one that causes its host to die quickly.

    Whether the host recovers, or dies slowly after spending time sniffling, coughing, and sneezing -- that should be a matter of indifference to the virus (I'm being humorous by imputing motive to the microscopic agent).

    Host-virus interactions and the countermeasures taken by the host immune system constrain the theoretical "strategies" the virus can employ. But I don't think it changes the fundamental picture.

    Replies: @Rob

  128. @ic1000
    Thoughts from a regular commenter, below the fold. Has worked in biotech (i.e. can read the primary literature) but not a clinician or a specialist. Pro-vaccine.

    In my family (all boosted, all infected), one college-age kid and Mrs. ic1000 had sniffles, other college-age kid had 2 days of bad stay-at-home flu symptoms. I had mild flu symptoms, now at Day 12 of being positive by rapid antigen tests. This seems to be the about the range among acquaintances in Rust Belt City, and among extended family.

    > If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality, then Omicron won’t be a fluke and future variants should tend to evolve to be even more spreadable and even milder.

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It's a tendency, not a low of nature (I'll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).

    In this regard, the future is unwritten. (See the highly transmissible and highly fatal Spanish Flu of 1918.)

    A critical factor is the state of people's immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic cornonaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody's adaptive immune system. (Everybody's adaptive system is integrated with the evolutionarily-old innate immune system, which offers immediate defenses against all viruses, old and new.)

    It takes many days to a few weeks for the adaptive immune system's defenses (e.g. antibodies, B cells, T cells) to fully activate. For a re-exposure, the adaptive system is already primed, so its reactions are faster and stronger.

    This is the point of vaccination, and the basis of immunity after infection or vaccination.

    At the time of the lab leak (90% prior) or jump from bats (10%), everybody's immune system was naive. How sick you got depended on (1) circumstances of exposure, maybe, (2) how good your innate system was, (3) how good your adaptive system was, (4) your age -- probably 2 & 3 -- and (5) your comorbidities.

    As is well known, viruses mutate. It's a core part of their evolutionary strategy. Part of the "reason" is to evade the adaptive immune system, i.e. open up prior "protected" people to re-infection.

    Omicron's 32-plus mutations make it really good at this.

    However, thanks to infection and vaccination, very few people in the developed world are naive to any descendant of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. We have a head start on defending against delta, omicron, etc. As a result, the course of disease is milder and shorter.

    This will continue into the future. It is written.

    - - - - -

    In my opinion, the public-health response to the pandemic has been very poor, throughout. To say nothing of the West's political leadership class (but one expects them to be mostly fools and cowards). The one shining exception has been the extremely rapid development of reasonably safe and reasonably effective vaccines. The commenters who competently and correctly (IMHO) laid out the pro-vaxx arguments on earlier threads are "That Would Be Telling," "Jack D," "Rob," and a few others (apologies for lack of total recall). There's also the rapid progress in ICU techniques (e.g. pronation), and the development of monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule therapeutics.

    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

    Anyway, to the present and future.

    Omicron is (1) very contagious and (2) somewhat mild. Most important, (3) through vaccination and/or prior infection, most people recognize this virus. They (we) get infected and are usually contagious, but the adaptive immune system responds quickly and efficiently, so symptoms aren't that bad.

    Policies haven't changed to reflect this reality. Omicron is going to continue sweeping -- this week is probably the peak in North America and Europe -- and then recede by early/mid February.

    In February/March, new policies will come into force that deal with the December realities.

    As far as the what and when of the next major variant (phi?): who knows? It will be contagious (by definition, or it won't be "major"). It may be mild to the few remaining naive people. For everybody else, our immune systems will definitely be primed to counter it, so very likely mild.

    In other words: The Flu, Bro (per 1918/19 and fragile old people every year, that's not necessarily the same as Just The Flu).

    Resources: Philippe Lemoine isn't a specialist; he has posted a set of very perceptive and accessible essays on Covid at his website.

    On the 1/3/22 episode of his podcast The Drive, Peter Attia interviewed a pair of dissenting thought leaders, Marty Makary and Zubin Damania. It is excellent, thorough, and timely... but runs 2 hours 45 minutes. They were involved with the Great Barrington statement, and have written numerous opinion pieces and Op-Eds. Speaking as a moderate pro-vaxxer: the world would be a better place if their ideas held sway... probably everybody but repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists (i.e. current US leadership) would agree on that.

    Zvi Moskowitz' blog "Don't Worry About the Vase" is thorough, comprehensive, and thoughtful. He's quite opinionated, and it's easy to get lost in the details.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Sick of Orcs, @That Would Be Telling, @Dmon, @Emil Nikola Richard

    a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why

    Yes. Where’s the beef?

    • Replies: @ic1000
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    > Where’s the beef [re: evolutionary biology reasoning]?

    Please see this comment, Rob's rejoinder, and my counterpoint.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  129. @HA
    @Hypnotoad666

    "...we voluntarily decided to destroy our economy and society in the meantime while this inevitable process played out."

    In the end, your precious economy won't change your inevitable demise either, no matter how hot and bothered you are to see it "destroyed", so I think you got some consistency issues you might want to work through if you really expect anyone outside your echo chamber to take you seriously.

    Some people think limiting a death toll that was projected (fairly well, in hindsight) to be about two million in the US, under a Lukashenko-style let-her-rip policy, to less than a third of that (not including the deaths of anti-vaxxers, because, come on, they're just getting what they asked for) is a worthwhile endeavor. And that's basically what happened; the Lukashenkos among us, be they in Israel or Russia or this place -- were for the most part dismissed world-wide as the nutjobs that they are.

    The fact that you think all the effort that entailed was nothing but a waste of time kind of explains why no one listens to the likes of you in general. I mean, it's no wonder the chamber-of-commerce types keep caving in to the cheap-labor immigration lobbies. In the end, it's all about the economy, am I right? Why would we ever want to anything to upset THAT import-the-masses perpetual-growth Ponzi scheme?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @BB753

    No it isn’t about the economy. It’s about liberty. It’s about living like a human and not a lab rat.

    I no longer expect hysterical cowards with the mentality of a slave – people like you – to understand that.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Anon

    • Fuckin' A.

    , @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "It’s about living like a human and not a lab rat."

    I'm pretty sure that lab rats spend a good deal of their time terrified about the next shot they're gonna have to take, and you think that describes me? Some serious projection you got going there.

    And unlike you, lab rats probably should fear the next shot they're gonna have to take, which makes your terror all the more pathetic. Now THAT is some serious slave mentality.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Old Prude
    @Mr. Anon

    It’s about living like a human and not a lab rat.

    Just so, Mr. Anon. Mrs. Prude was getting her weekly shower of Cooties hysteria from the Sunday paper, berating me for not wearing a mask: "You think your so cool..."

    In silence, I think "No. I don't like being de-humanized". Face-diapers are anti-human.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  130. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Dumbo


    one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point
     
    Do you think it's credible that the media is in uproar at Boris Johnson over Partygate?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10404315/Downing-Street-held-wine-time-Fridays-week-pandemic-Partygate-scandal-deepens.html

    1. Cromwell's mom would love this.
    2. I'm rooting for the execution of Johnson and his body displayed prominently in a gibbet until the birds pick the flesh down to the skeleton. Plus another 365 days.
    3. If they can't pull that off, lock him up in the Tower of London and feed him nothing but starvation ration bread and water.

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0435/8452/0350/files/Boris-Donald.jpeg

    * the argument could be made this is not media content on the subject of covid per se but let's not quibble. No fighting in the war room!

    Replies: @usNthem, @YetAnotherAnon

    I’d say forcing him or someone to comb his hair multiple times daily would be a nice start for the torture regimen.

  131. Omicron is the end of the pandemic. It’s just going to take the cat ladies awhile to figure it out.

  132. OT – the 2-year anniversary of BREXIT is coming up at the end of this month. What is the news/impact for England 2 years out?

  133. @aleksander
    For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim. Not a penny, Steve, not a penny.

    Replies: @HA, @AKAHorace

    “For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim.”

    Maybe that’s because, PCR cycle criteria notwithstanding, a vaccine that can be detected and measured even in wastewater is a bit more objective than a diagnosis of “toxic masculinity” or “white supremacy”. The fact that you can’t appreciate that difference says far more about you than about the MSM.

    And when I can sequence gender dysphoria as easily as I can a COVID virus, and when the results of that sequencing are the same regardless of whether I am in Atlanta or in Berlin or even in Wuhan, I’ll start taking the MSM’s directives on that pressing issue a bit more closely. But even then, I suspect I’ll still go on dismissing the likes of you.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
    • Replies: @Flying Dutchman
    @HA


    PCR cycle criteria notwithstanding, a vaccine that can be detected and measured even in wastewater is a bit more objective...
     
    I guess we should call that a Freudian slip. The fact that you didn't just blurt it out verbally but wrote it down, and that it withstood your proofreading, is quite telling.

    Meanwhile,


    PCR cycle criteria notwithstanding, a [virus] that can be detected and measured even in wastewater[, in goats, motor oil, papaya, quail and jackfruit, etc.] is...
     
    ...is, no doubt, nothing detectable or measurable in the real world, but is purely an artifcact of the fraudulent PCR test.

    And when I can sequence gender dysphoria as easily as I can a COVID virus
     
    Since no one's done the latter except in a virtual computer game fantasyland, and therefore you too have sequenced it in your "pandemic" fantasies, I guess you're also saying that to "sequence gender dysphoria" is as easily said as done.

    And then that fantasy must be next up for you, since most Covidian cultists also are "trans"-cultists, and the two go together logically and in the game plan of the globalists that launched both propaganda campaigns, while to have cult faith in one but not the other is incoherent.

    Both boil down to being only pretexts for the transhumanist assault the natural function of the human body, gene-altering injections in one case, hormone treatments and surgical self-mutilation in the other. Peas in a pod.

    Replies: @HA

  134. @Intelligent Dasein
    Why would Covid be any more likely to become more lethal over time than any of the hundreds of other coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, and influenza viruses that regularly cause upper respiratory tract infections that we live with every day?

    For someone whose bread and butter is supposed to be HBD, it's telling that your articles on the Covid subject demonstrate that you understand absolutely nothing about real-world biology at all. Maybe HBD isn't quite the Real Science!™ it's made out to be. Maybe you should just stick to BBB---Blacks Be Bad. You can continue to quote crime statistics, poverty levels, and other social indicators of dysfunction; there is some actual evidence of those things. But stay out of biology.

    The politicization of Covid-19 has been disastrous from the very beginning. Because of this, we now have the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years, global supply chains freezing up, and governments seizing the plenary authority to confine, imprison, and economically ruin people over their refusal to take a toxic "vaccine."

    Did you know, Steve, that before now there had never been an effective vaccine against a coronavirus? Did you know that before now there had never been a successful mRNA vaccine of any kind whatsoever? It seems like somebody who is interested in science would know stuff like that. If not, you could have just looked at Wikipedia, whose entry on the prevention and treatment of animal coronaviruses chillingly reads as follows (emphasis mine):

    Vaccines are available for animal coronaviruses IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.
     
    Destruction of entire herds. Let that sink in. This is what our Dear Leaders will eventually do to us if we don't stop this nonsense soon. Furthermore, the very statement reveals the stunning impotence of medical science in this regard. If research cannot discover an effective coronavirus vaccine even for farm animals, which are bred by the millions, and to which most ethical standards don't apply, what makes you think it can rapidly develop one for humans that is "safe and effective" against a "novel" coronavirus?

    The vaccines are killing people. The politics of Covid are killing people. The economic destruction is killing people. The lack of proper medical care is killing people. The despair and anxiety are killing people. The Covid-19 infection is not killing large numbers of people, no matter how you look at the data.

    What is the bigger risk here? Where is the real danger? With the virus, or with the government? And why doesn't the internet's soi-disant "noticer" extraordinaire notice any of this?

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @obwandiyag

    This ought to be expanded. Into a feature on Unz.

  135. Is Steve not scared of the flu anymore, bro?

  136. Of course “Omicron” is scary-sounding, and the panic would be far less if it were called the “Bob” variant. But I write to say, consider sniffing ethanol vapors wafting up from a brandy snifter, if you feel a virus coming on. There is an entire immunology lab (=sub-department) at Yale working on the mucous membrane as holding the key to this mess. But while these MD/PhDs are working on their fancy mucous-membrane therapeutic, consider sniffing Scotch vapors. There is anecdotal and unrigorous support for this. I think the lack of scientific study is attributable to Trump having mused: If only there were some way of bringing a disinfectant into direct contact with the virus. (He went on to caution that this would be a procedure for doctors to do, but it was exaggerated by the MSM into injecting bleach at home.) I suppose ethanol-sniffing too much could result in membrane irritation, but I have only sniffed briefly, and irritation never happened to me. My thinking is that a brief “dwell time” is sufficient. Disclosure and limitation: I am not a scientist, only a nobody in pajamas.

  137. Is Omicron Just the Flu, Bro?

    Let us know when the Omega arrives. Can’t be soon enough.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Reg Cæsar

    AP
    Expect more worrisome variants after omicron, scientists say
    By LAURA UNGAR
    Jan 15 '22

    "Get ready to learn more Greek letters. Scientists warn that omicron’s whirlwind advance practically ensures it won’t be the last version of the coronavirus to worry the world."

  138. Nothing is happening here, 50 miles from JFK, but everybody except my wife and me is wearing a mask in pubic. We even see people wearing masks while they are driving their cars.

    We don’t watch or read the same media these people do. The mask thing happened by surprise to us. Suddenly, everybody around us was wearing a mask, starting a few weeks ago. Fortunately, masks are not required in most places, and so we don’t wear them. So far, we haven’t been sick, and nobody we know has been sick. I mean not sick from anything at all.

    The mask phenomenon is particularly interesting to me, because I witnessed it here, 50 miles from JFK, all of a sudden. Go into Trader Joe’s and every yoga pants lady but my wife is wearing a mask. That sort of thing happened immediately when this Omicron BS came.

    It’s not even the flu, bro. Apparently it’s a cold, another corona virus.

    So, why all the commotion, news stories and government wranglings? Why is everyone around me wearing a mask, while I haven’t been sick in years?

    • Replies: @clyde
    @Buzz Mohawk


    So, why all the commotion, news stories and government wranglings? Why is everyone around me wearing a mask, while I haven’t been sick in years?
     
    Because all the sillies and dummies feel lots more important as part of a crusade. They get to swell their egos. Who are the sillies? Very Democrat, very lib and female. Biologically, women are safety.security oriented more than men. (we all know this) In a feminized society they get to call the shots on Covidxxx and the urgency of vaxxes. boosters. Get vaxxed up the wazoo, or we're all gonna die™️! We have been through this hysteria before. It was and is called climate change.

    From the right perspective this is one big hoax and test that has me laughing. Are we becoming a vaxx idiocracy or not?

    , @Corvinus
    @Buzz Mohawk

    “The mask thing happened by surprise to us. Suddenly, everybody around us was wearing a mask, starting a few weeks ago”

    It shouldn’t be if you NOTICED.

    https://www.deseret.com/platform/amp/coronavirus/2022/1/12/22881114/do-masks-really-prevent-omicron-heres-what-we-know-covid-n95-risk


    Various studies report different degrees of protection depending on how they were conducted and how data was collected, but a recent meta-analysis of multiple global studies found that masks are linked to a commanding 53% decrease in COVID-19 transmission when worn properly. An Arizona epidemiologist recently told me how N95 masks or surgical masks have proven to be especially effective. “Several studies have found that surgical masks are between 66% and 70% effective,” she said.

    Anyone doubting whether masks work need only look at how airborne diseases decrease in areas with high mask compliance. For instance, Primary Children’s Hospital in Utah ”typically deals with 80 to 120 RSV hospitalizations and dozens of intensive care unit stays per week on top of hundreds of yearly influenza hospitalizations,” as one article noted; however, in the winter of 2020/2021, when most Utahns were still wearing masks while shopping and at work, church, and school, the Salt Lake City hospital reported virtually zero flu or RSV hospitalizations. In fact, airborne illnesses were at an all-time low across hospitals throughout the state at the time.
     

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @John Johnson
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I don't think that Omicron is BS but I noticed the same thing here in rural America.

    Mask wearing definitely went up recently and I'm getting glares for not wearing one. I even saw people walking outside wearing KN95 masks. This is small town USA that went for Trump.

    Americans just aren't very good at processing information.

    It's really too late to try and control Omicron with KN95 masks. That needed to happen about a month ago. I don't think it would have done much anyways. It might have given the hospitals a little slack but Omicron is highly contagious and KN95 masks have to be worn properly to work. One little gap and you sucked in thousands of Omicron particles.

    Open everything up and fuhgeddaboudit.

  139. anon[618] • Disclaimer says:
    @Rob

    This often happens with pathogens in general and with RNA respiratory viruses in particular. It’s a tendency, not a low of nature (I’ll dig up a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why).
     
    I’d really like to see this. I think that people, even evolutionary biologists are thinking in terms of “the virus” maximizing its fitness. Except there is no “the virus.” There are millions-billions of individual genomes in an infection. Most of them differ from most of the others in small detail. In one person’s infection, the viruses cannot cooperate to decide not to infect the lower respiratory tract. Genomes that end up lower in the respiratory tract and happen to be okay-ish to good at infecting that tissue replicate. Eventually getting deep in your lungs, even though “the virus” would benefit from keeping you walking around and sneezing/breathing/snotting virus on everything.

    The only way I think a virus could evolve to be less deadly is when the virus is not killing you by turning your lungs into goo. Instead, your immune reaction is killing you. Specifically, the cellular/tissue antiviral response. Within each cell, especially if it’s only infected by one virion, every genome that can avoid some/all/delay the cellular antiviral response benefits. Also, avoid cell-mediated immunity and antibody-dependent cytotoxicity. This assumes that you have some other way of beating the infection before it actually does turn you to goo. Not sure if “loose” virus in the tissue or lumen counts. This strikes me as a tragedy of the commons situation. Genomes that limit their reproduction “for the good of the species (infection)” will just get swamped by genomes that pumped out as many copies of themselves as possible.

    Am I totally off?

    If I remember correctly, we have lots of adaptations for clearing viral infections. Adaptations are usually crafted by selection. I don’t think avoiding “feel cruddy for a week” would have given us so many adaptations to deal with infections. People with severe immunodeficiencies, like “bubble boy” can die of “opportunistic” infections, which implies to me that infections aren’t limiting their virulence, each of us is limiting their virulence.

    I’m interested in seeing where I (or a bunch of virologists) have made mistakes. Fingers crossed that I’m wrong. It would sure be nice if viruses limited their virulence for us.

    Replies: @Rob, @ic1000, @anon

    There is a very misleading underlying and unstated analogy that is confusing people. Namely. mammals and aggressive predators evolve like on the animal channel. They fight it out.
    Viruses, on the other hand become more contagious. They don’t fight it out in cell to cell combat. Meaning, original Covid was simply wiped out, by mechanisms somewhat like herd immunity. Same with alpha. Same with delta.
    They are saying that omicron is as contagious as measles, or more so.
    The public health PR insisted in allying binary labels to treatments and mitigation. They work or they don’t.
    The variants developed in Africa and India, so the binary good/evil class based media narrative was always absurd.
    And there are limits to mutation. Measles seems to be about the limit of contagion. And at some point, it mutates to something else. No longer Covid.

    But it means that all the interventions, including immunity through infection worked. Wiping out the sessile variants. Until the next leap in contagion.
    And all the bloviation over what worked and what didn’t…is only meaningful at the variant level.

  140. @Intelligent Dasein
    @Jack D


    Without the vax it would be a different picture.
     
    Yes, it would be a very different picture, just not the different picture you're implying.

    The number of Covid cases among the vaccinated exceeds the number among the unvaccinated, in every age category, both in absolute numbers and percentages. The vaccines have negative efficacy against Covid. This is not a secret anymore; the data is out there. So why are you blithely carrying on as if the vaccines are helping?

    Replies: @Jack D

    Maybe in number of cases but not in seriousness of cases. Covid is not a big deal because it give people (the vaccinated) a cold. Covid is a big deal because it sends people to the hospital and sometimes kills people (mainly the unvaccinated). The hospitalization rate for the unvaccinated is 17x the rate for the vaccinated:

    • Thanks: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D

    Jack, I realize numbers and visualizations are not your strong point (words are, and it's not your fault; that's just how God made you) but please notice how tiny those numbers are as proportions of the population. That is all that really matters.

    Thank you for at least admitting that this thing is now the cold, at least for those of us who have been vaccinated. Still even for those who have not, it is not a great threat necessitating limits on liberty and enterprise.

    Replies: @Jack D, @RonaldB

  141. Hard to get info on Omicron, which does seem to be flu like in symptoms.

    But, for what it is worth, CDC Excess Deaths Statistics for most recent few weeks are:

    Dec 4, 2021: 15.6%
    Dec 11, 2021: 14.8%
    Dec 18, 2021: 6.5%

    Obviously, the most recent weeks Statistics are incomplete. Christmas and New Year are slow anyway.

    15% excess deaths seems statistically significant.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @epebble

    But there was also a modest winter Delta wave going on until Omnicron became close to all dominant, perhaps in January. In SoCal Kaiser Permanente's 14 of the 15 Covid deaths in December were still due to Delta.

    On the other hand, maybe there are some poor bastards who reacted very badly to Omicron who are currently lingering in hospitals and will eventually die from it.

    Analyzing a moving target like this is hard work, although the Kaiser paper authors did work hard.

    Replies: @obwandiyag, @John Johnson

  142. @Jack D
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Maybe in number of cases but not in seriousness of cases. Covid is not a big deal because it give people (the vaccinated) a cold. Covid is a big deal because it sends people to the hospital and sometimes kills people (mainly the unvaccinated). The hospitalization rate for the unvaccinated is 17x the rate for the vaccinated:

    https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/01/10/briefing/11-MORNING-HOSP-CHART/11-MORNING-HOSP-CHART-superJumbo-v4.png?quality=75&auto=webp

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Jack, I realize numbers and visualizations are not your strong point (words are, and it’s not your fault; that’s just how God made you) but please notice how tiny those numbers are as proportions of the population. That is all that really matters.

    Thank you for at least admitting that this thing is now the cold, at least for those of us who have been vaccinated. Still even for those who have not, it is not a great threat necessitating limits on liberty and enterprise.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn't seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @John Johnson, @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross, @JMcG

    , @RonaldB
    @Buzz Mohawk

    There's always the matter of relative risk. Take a fairly normal male of 76, not obese, with no current morbidities. Is my overall risk greater by taking the vaccine, or by passing on the vaccine? Same question with a 10-year old. Overall risk for all causes is the golden standard.

    Let's also assume I have a supply of Ivermectin and know how to calculate dosages based on weight. Say, it's my intention to begin using Ivermectin if any symptoms haven't dramatically abated by about the third day. Does that affect my overall risk of hospitalization or lasting effects?

    Let's recall New York state was leading the jihad against actually treating the infection, as Dr. Zelenko recounts in his videos. I don't know if Washington had any policy concerning treatment. Even here in Texas, most doctors are in a fog when it comes to actually treating Covid. It's kind of weird. They make a big deal of wearing masks and pushing the vaccines, but have not researched treatment in the least.

  143. @ic1000
    @Dieter Kief

    DK, your comment prompted me to go back to the Great Barrington Declaration. It was posted on October 4, 2020, over a month before evidence of the efficacy and reasonable safety of Pfizer's jab became known.

    With the benefit of fifteen months' hindsight, this short essay reads very well indeed! A map for the Road Not Taken.

    It returned to the headlines last month, when news broke that Narrative celebrities had worked behind the scenes to suffocate reasoned discussion of the GBD's core idea, Focused Protection. From STATnews, the FOIA'd 10/8/20 email from NIH supremo Francis Collins to Anthony Fauci and others. Thanks to its brevity, the force of their anti-intellectual dogmatism shines through.


    Hi Tony and Cliff,

    See https://gbdeclaration.org/ This proposal from three fringe epidemiologists who met with the Secretary seems to be getting a lot of attention - and even a co-signature from Nobel Prize winner Mike Leavitt at Stanford. There needs to be a quick and devastating published takedown of its premises. I don't see anything like that on line yet - is it underway?

    Francis
     

    Further thoughts:

    * The vaccines seemed to achieve near-complete "sterilizing immunity" against the SARS-CoV-2 strains that were circulating in the first half of 2021. If that had held, it would have created common policy ground between the doctrinaire public-health/medical establishment and Focused Protection advocates. The establishment was unwittingly and foolishly placing a multi-trillion-dollar bet that sterilizing immunity would continue -- even though it was generally known by October that this bet had already gone bust.

    * In the past week, I've put some time into looking for safety information on vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. It is very difficult to find solid statistical treatments of this very important subject. My qualitative impression -- which seems to be shared by Martin Kulldorff of the GBF and the Attia podcast interview referenced earlier -- is that the mRNA vaccines are on the "more risky" side of the "generally safe" window. The issue of greatest concern appears to be vaccine-provoked myocarditis among healthy young men, in the days and weeks after a second or third (booster) dose. Given that SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild in this group, especially after one dose, the case for repeat jabs does not appear to be supported by risk/reward analysis.

    * To be clear, I remain strongly pro-vaxx. For older people and people with comorbidities, the risk/reward case for vaccination and boosting appears very strong. However, given the vaccinated's susceptibility to infection by new variants, herd immunity arguments are invalid. "You owe it to society" boils down to "be prudent in your behavior so as not to overburden hospitals." That strikes me as a weak justification for coercive policies that violate the principal of Autonomy. And how does one weigh the justified loss of trust in medicine and public health, when the antics of people like Fauci, Collins, and Biden -- among others -- come to light?

    Replies: @clyde, @Mark G., @Dieter Kief

    Dr. Deborah Birx, also known as ‘the scarf lady,’ and her partners in crime, the still at-large Dr. Anthony Fauci and NIH supremo Francis Collins. What I have been reading about the nice grandmotherly looking lady, the scarf lady. Is that she was very active behind the scenes in bureaucratic maneuvering while Trump was President. That she was quite adept at suppressing those working under Trump, who wanted to look into other ways to counter-Covid, besides vaxx, vaxx, vaxx and more boosters every 4-5 months. One of the mega-Pharmas said they were developing an annual shot flu shot and Covix-xyz, all rolled into one, a glorious combo injection for your protection. Unz poster HA says that he will be first in line where he lives.

    So look for more pro-vaxxxxxxx hysteria.hypochondria annually, in the early fall as the winter flu and Covid-xxx season approaches. Just when we are voting in early November, thus justifying mail in ballots and vote harvesting forever, the prime election cheat the Dems have. And none dare call this conspiracy and collusion.

  144. @Bill
    @Jack D

    If only there were a flu vaccine.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Exactly. Omicron is turning out to be similar to the flu – there is a vaccine but it’s not 100% effective (especially if you don’t take it). But he discounts the Omicron IFR without similarly discounting the flu IFR and so concludes that the Omicron IFR is half that of the flu. If I had to guess, they are similar. Probably Omicron would be worse except for the fact that most of the most vulnerable have recently received 3 doses of vaccine.

    But yeah, we don’t shut down schools and theaters every year during flu season. It’s accepted that it’s endemic and we are never getting rid of it. A certain # of mainly old people will die from it every year. We try to give everyone who wants it, especially the elderly, flu shots every year but if they don’t want them we don’t fire them from their jobs. We don’t destroy our economy over the flu.

    For political reasons if nothing else (and as far as they are concerned, there IS nothing else) the Biden Administration is very soon going to declare “victory” over Covid the same way as they declared victory in Afghanistan. If it all goes to shit after they declare victory (and it probably won’t anyway), it won’t be their fault (and the media sure as hell aren’t going to hold them accountable). The only hard part will be getting the unionized teacher back to work when they have been enjoying their paid vacations and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.

    • Agree: Ben Kurtz
    • Replies: @Bill
    @Jack D


    Exactly. Omicron is turning out to be similar to the flu – there is a vaccine but it’s not 100% effective (especially if you don’t take it). But he discounts the Omicron IFR without similarly discounting the flu IFR and so concludes that the Omicron IFR is half that of the flu. If I had to guess, they are similar. Probably Omicron would be worse except for the fact that most of the most vulnerable have recently received 3 doses of vaccine.
     
    No, it's you who made that mistake. Omicron and Flu both have vaccines which vulnerable people take at high rates. You don't need to discount anything. Omicron looks like Flu because it is like Flu. It makes no practical difference whether its IFR is half, equal to, or double that of Flu.

    The real difference is that infection with Flu doesn't protect you against infection by something far worse, whereas infection with Omicron very likely does. Nothing should be done to slow the spread of Omicron, and Omicron parties are probably a good idea.

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    we don’t shut down schools and theaters every year during flu season.
     
    But we do shut down schools occasionally during some parts of some normal, non-pandemic but above average flu seasons. Whereas whatever its severity in the short term, Omicron is definitely in a pandemic stage in much of the US. Fortunately with plenty of early signs that's starting to wane.

    Not sure about this "Biden" declaring "victory" concept after he waved the white flag of surrender on December 27th, saying "Look, there is no federal solution. This gets solved at a state level."

    OK,
    in context it's not so bad, but that doesn't matter so much in politics, especially with people as maladroit as, well, Biden always was, but worse now that he's 79, and Harris.

    I can well see them declaring victory, perhaps Afghanistan style as you outline, but I sense neither of them thinks they'll get a handle on teachers' unions and teachers, critical parts of the Democratic base who are doing Left a great deal of harm right now. And all this was after "Biden" pivoted to COVID to I believe distract from other disasters, but without a real plan, initially fell flat on "his" face as the FDA said "No" to premature applications for mRNA second boost doses or a boost dose for Janssen (their Phase III studies were not far enough along), and otherwise failed to move the needle. Which also won't happen with Pfizer's drug for a while as the supply chain for making it by the ton is established.

    and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.
     
    That's going to be "interesting" one way or another.
    , @Flying Dutchman
    @Jack D


    The only hard part will be getting the unionized teacher back to work when they have been enjoying their paid vacations and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.
     
    Why are you attacking your fellow Covidians? They're doing the exact same thing you are - believing in "Covid" out of whatever personal neuroses and/or venal interests they have.
  145. @Greta Handel
    @Dumbo

    Spend a while with the Search tool, and you’ll see that


    Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed “high IQ” HDB crowd
     
    took comfort Noticing how blacks, the less formally educated, the working class, and other foreign tribes disproportionately declined the Big Pharma injections. (Karlin explicitly crowed about COVID culling his inferiors.)

    Even now, Mr. Sailer avoids mention of apparently efficacious therapeutics like Ivermectin, hiding in plain sight despite being censored by the Establishment. Smart white guys would rather datanerd and place their hopes in

    therapeutics like Pfizer’s new Paxlovid set of pills [proving] safe and effective. At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omnicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply. But it seems not unlikely that we will get a reprieve for awhile so that if — or perhaps when — the next damn thing comes along, we’ll by then have enough of these two medicines on hand.
     
    Status insecurity remains at high levels.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy, @RonaldB, @BB753, @Wade Hampton

    Yes. And the milder, safer, cheaper therapeutics like Ivermectin work best if begun early in the progression of the disease. If you can find a doctor who understands treating Covid, by all means use that doctor. The newer monoclonal antibodies are being used under an Emergency Use Authorization, just like the rRNA vaccines. So, the long-term safety is a crapshoot, just like the vaccines.

  146. @Jack D
    @Ben Kurtz

    One man's bad cold is another man's fatal disease is another man's "I tested positive and I didn't even know that I had it". That's how it goes. Now Omicron is not a fatal disease to most people but for maybe 1 person in 1,000 it is. When you apply that to 300 million people it's still a lot of deaths.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

    Re-read my comment about Omicron being a headache for nursing home administrators.

    The residents in nursing home care are indeed unusually apt to die from any random cold or flu. It doesn’t have to be named Omicron.

    We’ve never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage. The last two years have reminded us why.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Ben Kurtz

    "We’ve never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage."

    We're ALREADY overwhelming ER's and ICU's, even though the vaccines continue to do a remarkably good job of keeping people out of those. People who need those beds for cancer operations or car wreck or pregnancy complication are in some cases seeing their operations get pushed back and having to get shuttled to who knows where there might be an available bed. Overworked doctors and surgeons are likely making even more deadly mistakes than usual.

    Now, try and run the hospital-bed-availability with double or triple that rush, and then you really start to see some serious carnage, and not just among the elderly.

    And give me a break, you're still trying to pretend it was about saving "an additional few months"? Even at the start of this epidemic, the average number of years lost was north of 10, nd grew significantly once the elderly were vaxxed, at which point the median death age dropped precipitously.

    This is from Feb 2021:


    We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women....The average years of life lost per death is 16 years.
     
    And don't forget the myocarditis. The just-a-flu-bros are real worried about the rise of that over the last year. What they don't tell you is that the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than whatever the vaccine gives you. Let's hope that whoever is affected finds an available hospital bed.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz, @vinteuil, @HA

    , @HA
    @Ben Kurtz

    "We’ve never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage."

    We're ALREADY overwhelming ER's and ICU's, even though the vaccines continue to do a remarkably good job of keeping people out of those. People who need those beds for cancer operations or diseased kidneys are seeing their operations get pushed back. Overworked doctors and surgeons are likely making even more deadly mistakes than usual.

    Now, try and run the hospital-bed-availability with double or triple that rush, and then you really start to see some serious carnage, and not just among the elderly.

    And give me a break, you're still trying to pretend this was just about saving "an additional few months"? Even before the vaccines, the average number of years lost to a COVID death was north of 10, and grew significantly once the elderly were vaxxed, at which point the median death age dropped precipitously (and the number of years lost spiked up).

    This is from Feb 2021:


    We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women....The average years of life lost per death is 16 years.
     
    I've seen other analyses that put the number at closer to 11, but they were generally less comprehensive. And don't forget the myocarditis. The just-a-flu-bros are real worried (and in some cases, positively gleeful) about the rise of that over the last year. What they don't bother to tell you is that the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than those associated with the vaccine. Let's hope that whoever is affected by that finds an available hospital bed.

    Replies: @anon, @vinteuil

  147. Well in other Covid news, Dr. Gale Burnstein, Erie County(NY)Director of Public Health, collected \$183K in overtime last year. For the two Covid years she has collected almost \$300k in overtime. Dr. Burnstein, a Peditrican by practice, is a political appointment. The only other Director of Public Health, in the whole state of NY, collected an additional \$3100 in overtime. This “flu” is big bucks if you are in the right position.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Buffalo Joe

    You hit the nail on the head, Mr. Buffalo. This nonsense is driven in part simply by the financial incentives involved. This is how humans behave. The authors of our Constitution understood this, but we have strayed so far that we barely comprehend it.

    This could go on forever, unless we remove those incentives. Think pharmaceutical company lobbyists and contributors to congressional campaigns. Think Fauci and his still non-public, redacted-though-claimed-to-be-public financial entanglements with those industries.

    Cheap, simple, old remedies have been not only poo poo-ed but actually forbidden by the powers that be. We have been led like cattle to the most expensive, work around, genetic, Rube Goldberg solutions -- because they make money for certain people.

  148. @Buzz Mohawk
    Nothing is happening here, 50 miles from JFK, but everybody except my wife and me is wearing a mask in pubic. We even see people wearing masks while they are driving their cars.

    We don't watch or read the same media these people do. The mask thing happened by surprise to us. Suddenly, everybody around us was wearing a mask, starting a few weeks ago. Fortunately, masks are not required in most places, and so we don't wear them. So far, we haven't been sick, and nobody we know has been sick. I mean not sick from anything at all.

    The mask phenomenon is particularly interesting to me, because I witnessed it here, 50 miles from JFK, all of a sudden. Go into Trader Joe's and every yoga pants lady but my wife is wearing a mask. That sort of thing happened immediately when this Omicron BS came.

    It's not even the flu, bro. Apparently it's a cold, another corona virus.

    So, why all the commotion, news stories and government wranglings? Why is everyone around me wearing a mask, while I haven't been sick in years?

    Replies: @clyde, @Corvinus, @John Johnson

    So, why all the commotion, news stories and government wranglings? Why is everyone around me wearing a mask, while I haven’t been sick in years?

    Because all the sillies and dummies feel lots more important as part of a crusade. They get to swell their egos. Who are the sillies? Very Democrat, very lib and female. Biologically, women are safety.security oriented more than men. (we all know this) In a feminized society they get to call the shots on Covidxxx and the urgency of vaxxes. boosters. Get vaxxed up the wazoo, or we’re all gonna die™️! We have been through this hysteria before. It was and is called climate change.

    From the right perspective this is one big hoax and test that has me laughing. Are we becoming a vaxx idiocracy or not?

  149. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D

    Jack, I realize numbers and visualizations are not your strong point (words are, and it's not your fault; that's just how God made you) but please notice how tiny those numbers are as proportions of the population. That is all that really matters.

    Thank you for at least admitting that this thing is now the cold, at least for those of us who have been vaccinated. Still even for those who have not, it is not a great threat necessitating limits on liberty and enterprise.

    Replies: @Jack D, @RonaldB

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn’t seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.
     
    Ohh, touched a nerve, did I? Don't feel bad; you are conversing with your choir. 99th Percentile here, dude.

    Spare me your miles of beds in the city. Words again, my friend, dramatic, schmaltzy words. 80 people per 100,00o is still only eight-per-ten-thousand, and you haven't even clarified what that means. Is it 8/10,000 of all the people in those cities? What is it, exactly? Is it 8/10,000 of people admitted to hospitals? Is it 8/10,000 of people with confirmed cased of COVID?

    Please, do tell.

    Maybe NYC should consider increasing the number of its hospital beds, if they can't be prepared even for this, whatever it is. I'm 50 miles away, and it hasn't effected me or anyone I know -- at all. How are things going there in Philly, in amongst those row houses you are gentrifying?

    Proportions matter:

    If I told you that 8/10,000 of the miles between us and the Andromeda Galaxy were filled with Hersey's chocolate bars, you would think, "wow, that's a lot of chocolate!" and you would would be right. But in NYC, they should have enough hospital beds for a scenario when 8/10,000 people with a certain illness actually need them.

    Proportion matters. Size does not, and you have based your entire argument against me on size, not proportion. Since you are an intelligent man, I will therefore assume you are being deceptive.

    BTW, have you heard that practically nobody who goes now to a hospital for COVID ever needs a ventilator? And have you heard that almost all of those people are out it a couple of days? So, please, consellor, spare me your verbal drama. It falls on deaf ears -- and, BTW, why do you try so hard to persuade me to think differently? Why is this so important to you? What is your gain from this?

    Replies: @Brutusale

    , @John Johnson
    @Jack D

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn’t seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    But that would only happen if they got Omicron at the same time.

    Fortunately the average hospital stay for Omicron is only 3 days which is 70% less than Delta. But more importantly we aren't seeing unvaccinated on ventilators for weeks which is really what was taking up beds. NYC is already on the downslope of their curve.

    New York hospitals are having more problems with staffing. What happens is that an asymptomatic nurse gets a positive test but still has to quarantine. It's the Omicron staycation. Honestly the testing in most cases is rather pointless. If you have a sore throat right now it is probably Omicron. Anyone that works in medicine is going to get it. No point in keeping a nurse home that only has a sore throat and no cough.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Jack D


    If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.
     
    OMG! They need to find another way to do it then, rather than blocking cross-town traffic all over Manhattan. Who's running that place now anyway?!

    #StackEmLikeCordwood

    , @J.Ross
    @Jack D

    Yeah, like how the disease was able to totally incapacitate Sweden. I mean, good god, grenadings are down.

    , @JMcG
    @Jack D

    New York is where they sent that USN Hospital Ship to handle the patient load. It left a few weeks later, completely unused. I think they also built tent hospitals that weren’t used at all. https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/30/hospital-ship-comfort-departs-nyc-having-treated-fewer-than-200-patients/

    Replies: @Jack D

  150. OT Texas Synagogue
    The ADL is there to hector harried cops about the Pyramid of Hate!
    Good thing the DoJ took the focus off Muslims and poured more resources into white supremacist —

    Aafia Siddiqui is a Pakistani neuroscientist with degrees from MIT and Brandeis University who was convicted of multiple felonies. She is serving an 86-year sentence at the Federal Medical Center, Carswell in Fort Worth, Texas, US.

    — attacker is allegedly brother —
    I guess we’re gonna find out how well the progressive stack self-updates.

    [MORE]

    Siddiqui was a Third World success story until she was named by one of those two or three rotating Al Qaeda top guys (who probably aren’t real) and became the only woman on the bad guy list. She’s in prison forever because she demonstrated standard Afghan green on blue marksmanship with a rifle — this is our government’s version of events — our guy more or less put in her hands. Given the professionalism and standards of Arbusto terror prosecutions she could be totally innocent. Muslims predictably feel very angry about her case, but then they’re always angry.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @J.Ross

    I have no idea what an "Arbusto terror prosecution" is but Siddiqui received a standard American trial in a standard American courtroom in the US , with witnesses and defense counsel and the full protections of the US Constitution and law. Her lawyers disputed some of the facts and she testified in her own defense (she just dug her hole deeper but never mind) but the jury believed the prosecution witnesses more. The trial lasted 14 days with the jury deliberating for three days before reaching a verdict.

    She has had the opportunity to appeal and all of the opportunities to seek justice that Daniel Pearl did not receive, that James Foley did not receive, that Steven Sotloff did not receive, that she herself would never have extended if the situation was reversed, and all of her convictions have been upheld after repeated review. Her family and supporters have tried to blow smoke and invented all sorts of fantastic lies but none of them will get her out of the jail cell in which she is serving her lawfully imposed sentence. Nor is this Pakistan where she will be traded for hostages -that's not going to work either. The BoP will release her on 7 May 2082, that is assuming she lives to the age of 110.

    After jurors found Siddiqui guilty, she exclaimed: "This is a verdict coming from Israel, not America. That's where the anger belongs." (Sounds like she would be right at home here with some of the folks on Unz.)

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @Alden
    @J.Ross

    The news stories I saw all claimed the Synagogue hostage taker was “ a British man”.

    Probably the gr gr gr grandson of Oswald Mosley. Or a follower of Farage.

  151. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D

    Jack, I realize numbers and visualizations are not your strong point (words are, and it's not your fault; that's just how God made you) but please notice how tiny those numbers are as proportions of the population. That is all that really matters.

    Thank you for at least admitting that this thing is now the cold, at least for those of us who have been vaccinated. Still even for those who have not, it is not a great threat necessitating limits on liberty and enterprise.

    Replies: @Jack D, @RonaldB

    There’s always the matter of relative risk. Take a fairly normal male of 76, not obese, with no current morbidities. Is my overall risk greater by taking the vaccine, or by passing on the vaccine? Same question with a 10-year old. Overall risk for all causes is the golden standard.

    Let’s also assume I have a supply of Ivermectin and know how to calculate dosages based on weight. Say, it’s my intention to begin using Ivermectin if any symptoms haven’t dramatically abated by about the third day. Does that affect my overall risk of hospitalization or lasting effects?

    Let’s recall New York state was leading the jihad against actually treating the infection, as Dr. Zelenko recounts in his videos. I don’t know if Washington had any policy concerning treatment. Even here in Texas, most doctors are in a fog when it comes to actually treating Covid. It’s kind of weird. They make a big deal of wearing masks and pushing the vaccines, but have not researched treatment in the least.

  152. @Reg Cæsar

    Is Omicron Just the Flu, Bro?
     
    Let us know when the Omega arrives. Can't be soon enough.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    AP
    Expect more worrisome variants after omicron, scientists say
    By LAURA UNGAR
    Jan 15 ’22

    “Get ready to learn more Greek letters. Scientists warn that omicron’s whirlwind advance practically ensures it won’t be the last version of the coronavirus to worry the world.”

  153. @Buffalo Joe
    Well in other Covid news, Dr. Gale Burnstein, Erie County(NY)Director of Public Health, collected $183K in overtime last year. For the two Covid years she has collected almost $300k in overtime. Dr. Burnstein, a Peditrican by practice, is a political appointment. The only other Director of Public Health, in the whole state of NY, collected an additional $3100 in overtime. This "flu" is big bucks if you are in the right position.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    You hit the nail on the head, Mr. Buffalo. This nonsense is driven in part simply by the financial incentives involved. This is how humans behave. The authors of our Constitution understood this, but we have strayed so far that we barely comprehend it.

    This could go on forever, unless we remove those incentives. Think pharmaceutical company lobbyists and contributors to congressional campaigns. Think Fauci and his still non-public, redacted-though-claimed-to-be-public financial entanglements with those industries.

    Cheap, simple, old remedies have been not only poo poo-ed but actually forbidden by the powers that be. We have been led like cattle to the most expensive, work around, genetic, Rube Goldberg solutions — because they make money for certain people.

  154. @Catdog
    Garbage in, garbage out, Sailer. It's obvious to everyone who notices that these stats are all bullshit. Give it up already.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

    Garbage in, garbage out, Sailer. It’s obvious to everyone who notices that these stats are all bullshit. Give it up already.

    These stats are coming from govts from all around the world of every ideology. What sort of conspiracy could do that ?

    • Replies: @Flying Dutchman
    @AKAHorace


    These stats are coming from govts from all around the world of every ideology. What sort of conspiracy could do that ?
     
    I'm not aware of any government on earth whose ideology isn't globalist-technocratic Mammon.

    As for what sort of conspiracy, the same as any other elite conspiracy: The course and pace are set by a small leading elite, the rest of the system imitates and follows, since they already know or believe they all have the same interests and goals, whether or not that's always true.

    The stats, of course, come from only a few sources. Everyone else imitates (for example, how to "test") and regurgitates what they're fed.

  155. @Paul Rise
    I was roasted a few weeks back here by a few commenters when you asked for predictions - I said Biden admin misreads omicron and predicted we could see 10k per day deaths..

    My math was off - I think we will easily exceed 5k US deaths at peak, breaking the previous record set on Jan 12, 2021 (~4100 I believe).

    Note this grim anniversary was not mentioned in any recent news coverage.

    I'm curious is anyone knows whether there is a Biden plan B for the pandemic now that vaccine mandates were bounced by Supreme Court?

    Is Biden warpspeeding new vaccines - perhaps one based on Omicron?

    Is Biden using the defense production act to produce antivirals and therapies that are documented to improve outcomes?

    I noted that CDV mask guidance was revised yesterday- the better part of two years have passed that many shared these observations.

    The reality is this - the only tool we have are vaccines that were formulated around the earliest version of the virus. The virus is evolving with each infection and its clear that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, while improving outcomes, its not halting infection significantly and in many cases isnt resulting in what most of us would call "mild" infections. My young neighbor - 38, physically active with a young family to support - was laid low by the virus for almost 2 weeks recently. He was double vaxxed and boosted more than 3 weeks before.

    I'm also curious what the Biden team would do if Pi or whatever emerges and tears through a key industrial or materials nation, or if it emerges as more infectious and also with increased virulence from declining vaccine efficiency.

    I think we can all agree lockdowns were useless. Perhaps even increased spread - and we don't want to live on fear.

    Are we all ready to have a severe cold and flu like symptoms every year like clockwork? That seems to be what we are hearing from the "let er rip" crowd (that Nicolas Nassim Taleb refers to as "psychopaths").

    I haven't had a cold in 15 years and never had the flu. I had two grandparents die from "colds."

    I think Biden has given up on any numbers of fronts. The worst is yet to come.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz, @3g4me, @Colin Wright, @Patrick McNally, @Buzz Mohawk

    A coherent Plan B would be a pre-order of 1m doses of an Omicron optimized jab, just in case Omicron or Son of Omicron turns out to be really dangerous to some segment of the population. Most likely we’ll just toss them but that’s the price of preparedness. Of course Biden won’t do that because he’s a senile fool.

    You’ve been watching too much CNN FearPorn if you seriously proposed a running average of 10,000 daily Covid-attributable deaths as a peak for this wave. Between the jabs (which have their place with old/vulnerable people), new drugs, Omicron’s relatively benign nature and our having culled the vulnerable from the herd these past two years, from early December it was clear that our impending Omicron wave would impose a morbidity and mortality burden whose peak was no higher than what we saw a year ago. I stand by that prediction even now.

  156. This article is a picture beside the dictionary definition of “meaningless statistical gobbledegook.”

    I assure you, those “studies” are faulty in a hundred ways. Why do people just accept things if they have percent signs after them?

    And of course, the article skips the only meaningful part: the unvaccinated will NEVER be allowed in NYC restaurants again. They will NEVER be offered jobs again. They will NEVER be able to fly on aeroplanes again. As the actual incidence and virulence of this other-named flu wanes and wanes and wanes, the draconian penalties for refusal to get shot after shot will only wax and wax and wax.

  157. @anon
    I live in the Boston area, where vaccination rates are high and where the number of active cases during the past week vastly exceeds the number at any earlier time. If you'd predicted a year ago that these case numbers and these vaccination numbers would occur simultaneously, you would have been flagged on Twitter and Facebook for promoting "dangerous vaccine misinformation". And a lot of commenters on this blog would have ridiculed you.

    Not to be deterred, the city of Boston is implementing a vaccine mandate for indoor places, starting today. It applies to restaurants, theaters, gyms, bars, conference centers, museums, etc.

    https://www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/file/2021/12/BPHC-Indoor-Vaccination-Order-12-20-21.pdf

    Notice how rarely we hear the phrase "herd immunity" these days.The bureaucrats implementing these policies no longer provide any justification for them beyond perfunctory language about "keeping us all safe". It's now blindingly obvious that vaccination does not prevent the spread of the virus at the population level, period. But they don't acknowledge that or care.

    Ominously, Brookline, a town adjacent to Boston, has set up a similar mandate. Also ominous is that there's virtually no discussion of what would cause these mandates to be removed.

    This stuff was Alex Jones territory only a couple of years ago. Not anymore. March 2020 will prove to be a watershed moment in American history.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    C’mon man, the vaccine and mask mandates are very effective for what they are intended for, which has nothing to do with preventing or halting the spread of the virus. They are less than zero effective for that.

  158. @aleksander
    For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim. Not a penny, Steve, not a penny.

    Replies: @HA, @AKAHorace

    For a supposed iconoclast, Sailer toes the MSM talking points pretty much verbatim. Not a penny, Steve, not a penny

    Because sometimes the mainstream view is basically right ? You should neither always believe it or always disbelieve it.

    • Thanks: HA
  159. @Ben Kurtz
    @Jack D

    Re-read my comment about Omicron being a headache for nursing home administrators.

    The residents in nursing home care are indeed unusually apt to die from any random cold or flu. It doesn't have to be named Omicron.

    We've never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage. The last two years have reminded us why.

    Replies: @HA, @HA

    “We’ve never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage.”

    We’re ALREADY overwhelming ER’s and ICU’s, even though the vaccines continue to do a remarkably good job of keeping people out of those. People who need those beds for cancer operations or car wreck or pregnancy complication are in some cases seeing their operations get pushed back and having to get shuttled to who knows where there might be an available bed. Overworked doctors and surgeons are likely making even more deadly mistakes than usual.

    Now, try and run the hospital-bed-availability with double or triple that rush, and then you really start to see some serious carnage, and not just among the elderly.

    And give me a break, you’re still trying to pretend it was about saving “an additional few months”? Even at the start of this epidemic, the average number of years lost was north of 10, nd grew significantly once the elderly were vaxxed, at which point the median death age dropped precipitously.

    This is from Feb 2021:

    We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women….The average years of life lost per death is 16 years.

    And don’t forget the myocarditis. The just-a-flu-bros are real worried about the rise of that over the last year. What they don’t tell you is that the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than whatever the vaccine gives you. Let’s hope that whoever is affected finds an available hospital bed.

    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @HA

    Ha ha ha! You're so very funny, if innumerate.

    20.5 million life-years lost over a global population of 7.9 billion equals, what, less then a day taken off the life of every human being?

    The entire world has lost far more days of productive and happy life to failed lockdowns and useless stay-at-home nonsense than it has lost to the disease itself.

    "I just want to live while I'm alive!" - Bon Jovi.

    Replies: @HA

    , @vinteuil
    @HA


    ...the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than whatever the vaccine gives you...
     
    The word "myocarditis" is nowhere to be found in the article to which you link.
    , @HA
    @HA

    "Again, the word “myocarditis” is nowhere to be found in the article to which you link."

    You got me there; thanks for that -- I meant to link to the paper here.


    We found increased risks of myocarditis associated with the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines and the first and second doses of the mRNA-1273 vaccine over the 1-28 days postvaccination period, and after a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. We estimated an extra two (95% confidence interval (CI) 0, 3), one (95% CI 0, 2) and six (95% CI 2, 8) myocarditis events per 1 million people vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, in the 28 days following a first dose and an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million vaccinated in the 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273. This compares with an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) myocarditis events per 1 million patients in the 28 days following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. We also observed increased risks of pericarditis and cardiac arrhythmias following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Similar associations were not observed with any of the COVID-19 vaccines, apart from an increased risk of arrhythmia following a second dose of mRNA-1273. Subgroup analyses by age showed the increased risk of myocarditis associated with the two mRNA vaccines was present only in those younger than 40.
     
    With regard to the last line about the under-40 crowd, the same people did a later followup study that's still under peer review -- if you look up the Twitter account of Maria Patone, the Oxford statistician who's leading the study, you can find it there. Also see my earlier caution about about how young people who lined up first for the COVID vaccine (and the regular flu vaccine) are not necessarily representative of the rest of the young, and how, in the case of the regular flu at least, that can greatly skew their risk numbers. Also keep in mind that all these numbers will quite possibly shift around for omicron.
  160. @Adept
    @Dieter Kief


    To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence
     
    No offense, but that is literally the most trite philosophical observation of all time. It has no explanatory power, and no metaphysical (or predictive) weight. No wonder Heidegger had to couch it in such dense jargon!

    Hell, the "I never asked for this" meme did it better. And that originated with video game writers earning $0.03/word.

    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @martin_2

    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.

    I was gullible enough at college to think the big name philosophers actually knew something.

    The philosophy course I took reading all the major works of Heidegger permanently removed the scales from my eyes.

    To any young folks thinking about taking such courses–don’t do it. You will learn much more from your stoned friends at parties–with no exams and no papers.

    😉

    • Replies: @Alrenous
    @Justvisiting

    Aristotle left Plato's Academy to found the Lykeion because the Academy was (and is) a bad idea. It is sufficiently likely that the reason Plato liked Socrates so much was that he literally had a crush on him. The Academy was largely a dating service. Plato was into smart boys.

    Heidegger is the worst existentialist. Here's everything good in Heidegger: thesis antithesis synthesis. Okay we're done.

    Plato's Academy was a terrible idea and unfortunately almost every Western scholar has faithfully followed the Academy's footsteps. It is still largely a dating service. The only real improvement was allowing women into the Academy - some philosophers are into heterosexuality, after all.

    And this is why I don't call myself a philosopher anymore. Sorry, Plato was a ***. Call me an alchemist before you call me a philosopher. The Academy likes Heidegger because he was basically a *** too. I dunno if literal sodomite, but he might as well have been.

    Best existentialist was Kirkegaard. He asked all the right questions. Unfortunately he was insufficiently dedicated. Also closer to an atheist than a pious man, despite his many protestations. He could have found answers to the questions, instead of stopping at asking. The latest name-brand philosopher who is actually worth reading is Descartes. Even then, read a summary, not the man himself. Seriously needed an editor.

    Replies: @vinteuil

    , @Dieter Kief
    @Justvisiting

    Martin Heidegger's work is that of a true concept- or term-storyteller (as such he is a genius).That's the reason his writings made this rather humble man from one of the poorest and most backward regions of Southern Germany world famous. He had nothing but his nine years in Konstanz' Suso-Gymnasium, his enthusiasm, his ideas and his genius. No status, no money, no support - he did it all on his own.After his death, his numerous books lived on - and more of them appeared in print. And they still do. The sixth Japanese translation is out and on it's way. His not that easy to grasp books are read in 40+ languages. And even if you think that that is all superficial crap, you'd still have the problem to explain how it came that so many brillliant minds did study his works and - found: Yep, great and insightful stuff (Hans-Georg Gadamer (Truth and Method) , for example, or Jürgen Habermas (Truth and Justification; The Theory of Communicative Action), Robert Brandom (Making it Explicit) and Richard Rorty (The Mirror of Philosophy). Or see here Tanabe Hajie and Hung Yao-hsun about Heidegger in East Asia: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326622099_Reception_and_transformation_of_heidegger's_philosophy_in_east_Asia_From_Tanabe_Hajime_and_Hung_Yao-hsun - - - (...).

    (I do not so much disagree with your remarks about the ability to learn from - let me paraphrase - from talking with your friends. - Irony above all ironies: Heidegger was very much in favor of talking with others - not least about everyday subjects. In the end, that was one of his core beliefs: That it mattered to debate and discuss and - cultivate the (philosophical) dialogue - not least in everyday contexts and about simple things (like the Dirt Road (very charming little book by him) or the stuff we have around us/ with us in everyday life.)

    Replies: @Adept

    , @New Dealer
    @Justvisiting

    I did both Heidegger and stoned friends at parties.

    Heidegger: we are thrown into existence.

    Party: God is love, man.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  161. @Paul Rise
    I was roasted a few weeks back here by a few commenters when you asked for predictions - I said Biden admin misreads omicron and predicted we could see 10k per day deaths..

    My math was off - I think we will easily exceed 5k US deaths at peak, breaking the previous record set on Jan 12, 2021 (~4100 I believe).

    Note this grim anniversary was not mentioned in any recent news coverage.

    I'm curious is anyone knows whether there is a Biden plan B for the pandemic now that vaccine mandates were bounced by Supreme Court?

    Is Biden warpspeeding new vaccines - perhaps one based on Omicron?

    Is Biden using the defense production act to produce antivirals and therapies that are documented to improve outcomes?

    I noted that CDV mask guidance was revised yesterday- the better part of two years have passed that many shared these observations.

    The reality is this - the only tool we have are vaccines that were formulated around the earliest version of the virus. The virus is evolving with each infection and its clear that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, while improving outcomes, its not halting infection significantly and in many cases isnt resulting in what most of us would call "mild" infections. My young neighbor - 38, physically active with a young family to support - was laid low by the virus for almost 2 weeks recently. He was double vaxxed and boosted more than 3 weeks before.

    I'm also curious what the Biden team would do if Pi or whatever emerges and tears through a key industrial or materials nation, or if it emerges as more infectious and also with increased virulence from declining vaccine efficiency.

    I think we can all agree lockdowns were useless. Perhaps even increased spread - and we don't want to live on fear.

    Are we all ready to have a severe cold and flu like symptoms every year like clockwork? That seems to be what we are hearing from the "let er rip" crowd (that Nicolas Nassim Taleb refers to as "psychopaths").

    I haven't had a cold in 15 years and never had the flu. I had two grandparents die from "colds."

    I think Biden has given up on any numbers of fronts. The worst is yet to come.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz, @3g4me, @Colin Wright, @Patrick McNally, @Buzz Mohawk

    @39 Paul Rise: “I had two grandparents die from “colds.”

    Shocking, isn’t it, how the elderly all eventually die? And it usually begins with an upper respiratory infection. Cold, flu, pneumonia. When they thought they’d all live forever. Remember, if it saves even one 97 year old life with half a dozen comorbidities . . . then it’s vital that we all STAY SAFE.

    I hope the worst is yet to come, sugar britches – haven’t yet seen those piles of bodies I was promised.

  162. It could be that January 2022 is the climax of the pandemic and it will fade away, like the 1918 Spanish Flu had its last wave in 1920.

    Unlike 1919/1920, the Doom Police have the next pandemic already in the works for the next election cycle. They’ll get a century of one-party rule, like Mexico’s PRI, if they have to kill every man, woman and child to do it.

  163. @Ben Kurtz
    @Jack D

    Re-read my comment about Omicron being a headache for nursing home administrators.

    The residents in nursing home care are indeed unusually apt to die from any random cold or flu. It doesn't have to be named Omicron.

    We've never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage. The last two years have reminded us why.

    Replies: @HA, @HA

    “We’ve never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage.”

    We’re ALREADY overwhelming ER’s and ICU’s, even though the vaccines continue to do a remarkably good job of keeping people out of those. People who need those beds for cancer operations or diseased kidneys are seeing their operations get pushed back. Overworked doctors and surgeons are likely making even more deadly mistakes than usual.

    Now, try and run the hospital-bed-availability with double or triple that rush, and then you really start to see some serious carnage, and not just among the elderly.

    And give me a break, you’re still trying to pretend this was just about saving “an additional few months”? Even before the vaccines, the average number of years lost to a COVID death was north of 10, and grew significantly once the elderly were vaxxed, at which point the median death age dropped precipitously (and the number of years lost spiked up).

    This is from Feb 2021:

    We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women….The average years of life lost per death is 16 years.

    I’ve seen other analyses that put the number at closer to 11, but they were generally less comprehensive. And don’t forget the myocarditis. The just-a-flu-bros are real worried (and in some cases, positively gleeful) about the rise of that over the last year. What they don’t bother to tell you is that the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than those associated with the vaccine. Let’s hope that whoever is affected by that finds an available hospital bed.

    • Replies: @anon
    @HA

    It's so important to you that you'd copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies? How much are you paid?

    Replies: @Corvinus, @HA

    , @vinteuil
    @HA


    ...the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than whatever the vaccine gives you...
     
    Again, the word "myocarditis" is nowhere to be found in the article to which you link.
  164. The most interesting thing so far on this thread (I haven’t plowed through it all yet) is the high degree of malevolence directed at iSteve for not being the All Knowing Savant which all too many commentators think he should be. Or demand that he become.

    None of them can brag about “being right” and iSteve here has just presented many pages of dull scientific “facts” which have varied over the months and years. Not his fault that much of that has been incomplete or incorrect.

    “You can’t blame Walter Cronkite for the bad news.” (remember him?)

    So there is a lot of psychology here demonstrated: transference, projection, blame shifting, denial, etc.

    Since scolding iSteve for not being perfect makes some feel better, we can all relax and pass on his horse racing tips as well. The simple minded psych here is almost funny.

    Of course many also plug in their generic critiques of politics and society here (globalists, mind controllers, etc.) and voila, your pet explanation once again fits.

    Being a Universal Skeptic or Cynic is a one-size-fits-all pose, rather than an analysis. Repeating those gets rather old. If you were as smart and foreseeing as you claim, you’d be rich. You ain’t.

    I think aside from enjoying the aging sourpusses here vent, what I will do is relax and anticipate the many books which will soon spring forth in another year or two detailing what went right, who lied, what turned out to be correct, and why “science” is still quarreling over fundamental issues.

    I’m just hoping that the looming “surge” of Variant Omega doesn’t turn out to be highly transmissible and equally highly lethal. Fauci’s “gain of function” research is not yet complete!

    • Agree: Spud Boy
    • Thanks: AKAHorace, YetAnotherAnon
  165. @Sick of Orcs
    @ic1000


    Everything else has been largely a shit show. A partly-avoidable shit show.

     

    The shitshow is the globalist hoax which shut down the world and boosted medical-based tyranny over a flu with a 99% recovery rate.

    Covidhoaxers really do live in an alternate reality where hundreds of people lie dead in the streets, hospitals are filled to overflowing and there are mass casualties from a 99% survivable flu.

    I inhabit a mask-free area and life looks exactly the same as it did in 2018, except for the deliberate supply chain disruptions.

    To date, no one has successfully explained why the vaxxed would have anything to fear from the unvaxxed.

    Replies: @Alrenous

    From their side, nobody has explained. From our side, ID did it in this thread, which constitutes a spot check of frequency. https://www.unz.com/isteve/is-omicron-just-the-flu-bro/#comment-5119954

    • Thanks: Sick of Orcs
  166. @mc23
    Just some casual observations that my be of some interest-

    I work in a hospital in a large metropolitan area. The number of patients in the hospital for Covid-19 is far, far higher than at any time since the beginning of the Covid outbreak. I do not know how the newer cases in the hospital compare to earlier cases nor the vaccination status. We have been told most hospitalized are unvaxxed.

    I know quite a few people who have gotten Covid last year and in just the past month. Most people who got it last year were far sicker. I know several people who died last year. Those I know who got it recently were sick 3-4 days with a low to moderate fever for a day then just feeling like crud. They were aged from 30 to around eighty. The eighty year old had a lighter case then most of the younger people and she isn’t the healthiest.

    Incidentally everyone I know of who has gotten Covid recently was vaccinated and most were boosted. My brother got the booster recently and was as sick from the booster as the boosted people who had Covid.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

    I work in a hospital in a large metropolitan area. The number of patients in the hospital for Covid-19 is far, far higher than at any time since the beginning of the Covid outbreak. I do not know how the newer cases in the hospital compare to earlier cases nor the vaccination status. We have been told most hospitalized are unvaxxed.

    What fraction of the patients in hospital are obese ? I know that many who are skeptical of Covid 19, say that it just affects the obese, but that is a large fraction of the North American population.

    Unrelated. I always get a cold or two during the winter. Since Covid I have not been sick at all, I put that down to using masks and distancing.

    • Replies: @mc23
    @AKAHorace

    I know it's not only the obese. My neighbor was a 57 year old man, a slender gym rat who collapsed and died at home after a week. Of course he may have had other health issues that he wasn't aware of,

  167. @Rob
    @ic1000

    Thank you for the links. I hate to praise myself, but more than that I love to. I don’t see how they can be right, just given “the” virus is not a thing, there are a whole bunch of individual genomes evolving each on its own following short-term gain because that’s just how evolution rolls.

    Also, the teleology! “The virus wants...” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo. There’s just no way the quasispecies, the “cloud” of viral genomes in sequence space, can punish a genome that goes a little deeper into the lungs or replicates a little more vigorously than would be optimal for the group of viruses in some poor bastard’s airways to spread to some other unfortunate soul.

    I think my objections are fatal to the general theory or “tendency.”

    Does anyone want to venture an opinion? Is there something I'm just not taking into account?

    Maybe if few enough pathogens are transferred to each new host that virulence-causing adaptations are lost and hard to reacquire?

    Thank you again for the links.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @John Johnson, @ic1000

    Put very vaguely: the shallower the virus dives into the body the more infectious it is to others and the less deadly it is.

    This is important for natural selection because infectiousness to others is ~8 billion times more important than reaching deeper into the body and infecting more cells.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Put very vaguely: the shallower the virus dives into the body the more infectious it is to others...
     
    This seems to be true of memes as well. Not to mention Twitter.

    ...and the less deadly it is.
     
    There the analogy breaks down.

    the more infectious it is to others
     
    Is that redundant, or not?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  168. @Redman
    @slumber_j

    Totally agree. They just moved the annual State of The Union address to early March, the latest held since 1934.

    Clearly they know where this is heading. And they want to have one thing for Biden to get those nauseating standing ovations for.

    Replies: @slumber_j

    I hadn’t known that about the SOTU. Very interesting.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @slumber_j

    I actually did notice this. These people are as shameless and simple as high school student council members.

  169. @Ben Kurtz
    Omicron isn't even the flu. It's just a bad cold. Ask me how I know.

    In Florida, for the most part Covid is a headache for nursing home administrators and a distant memory for normal folks.

    Covid's continuing severe impact on schoolchildren and working adults in Blue areas is now an entirely political and quasi-religious phenomenon, not a medical phenomenon.

    Replies: @Whereismyhandle, @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D, @Alrenous

    “Now” entirely political?
    I called it being entirely political in January of 2020, and I’ve yet to see a single indication it has ever been anything but maybe a high-end flu.

    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @Alrenous

    Being a working age adult who personally had O.G. Covid back in May 2020 and lost two beloved if older relatives to it, I can assure you that there was some medical substance to the claims that the original waves were unusually bad. Of course there was politics at play, but there were also real medical impacts beyond the typical "bad" flu season.

    But by the time the FearPorners started hyping all the variant nonsense this summer, we finally reached the point where it was all politics and no medical substance.

    Replies: @Alrenous, @Mike Tre

  170. @Sick of Orcs
    @slumber_j


    If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal.
     
    There is no "getting back to normal," by design. Do you think globalist swine will throw away their chance to tag and barcode every last one of their human inventory?

    Only tsunamis of bloodshed will rid us of globalists.

    Replies: @Dmon

    Agree. The covid pandemic will never end until they get what they were after all along.

    • Thanks: Sick of Orcs
  171. OT, but in tune with the zeitgeist – a 100% diverse criminal greets Eric Adams’s promises of a safer city by turning an Oriental woman into hamburger:

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/15/woman-pushed-to-her-death-at-times-square-subway-station/

    Maybe he’ll hire his thousand closest relatives to investigate the crime.

  172. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn't seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @John Johnson, @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross, @JMcG

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    Ohh, touched a nerve, did I? Don’t feel bad; you are conversing with your choir. 99th Percentile here, dude.

    Spare me your miles of beds in the city. Words again, my friend, dramatic, schmaltzy words. 80 people per 100,00o is still only eight-per-ten-thousand, and you haven’t even clarified what that means. Is it 8/10,000 of all the people in those cities? What is it, exactly? Is it 8/10,000 of people admitted to hospitals? Is it 8/10,000 of people with confirmed cased of COVID?

    Please, do tell.

    Maybe NYC should consider increasing the number of its hospital beds, if they can’t be prepared even for this, whatever it is. I’m 50 miles away, and it hasn’t effected me or anyone I know — at all. How are things going there in Philly, in amongst those row houses you are gentrifying?

    Proportions matter:

    If I told you that 8/10,000 of the miles between us and the Andromeda Galaxy were filled with Hersey’s chocolate bars, you would think, “wow, that’s a lot of chocolate!” and you would would be right. But in NYC, they should have enough hospital beds for a scenario when 8/10,000 people with a certain illness actually need them.

    Proportion matters. Size does not, and you have based your entire argument against me on size, not proportion. Since you are an intelligent man, I will therefore assume you are being deceptive.

    BTW, have you heard that practically nobody who goes now to a hospital for COVID ever needs a ventilator? And have you heard that almost all of those people are out it a couple of days? So, please, consellor, spare me your verbal drama. It falls on deaf ears — and, BTW, why do you try so hard to persuade me to think differently? Why is this so important to you? What is your gain from this?

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    @Buzz Mohawk

    At the girlfriend's place more than half of the Covid patients are homeless. Omicron is like wildfire in the homeless population. Three hots and a cot.

    They also serve the lockdown maniacs' purposes; being unvaxxed they pad the numbers.

    The People's Commonwealth has spun out of control. The mask mandates are back. Some restaurants and bars have announced that they're only accepting vaxxed customers. Because our state government is a spineless RINO and a bunch of broads, we're looking down the barrel of a vax mandate, too.

    I say go wild, girls. You haven't killed the entire hospitality industry in the commonwealth yet.

    Last night the girl wanted the fish at a certain place that we like, but it's a tough ticket without a midweek reservation. Last night we rolled in at 7:00 and sat right down. After dinner we decided to grab a beer at a nearby brewery, Night Shift, where there's always a line. It was about 3/4 full last night.

    The kicker was when we got back to my place and my restaurant manager neighbor was pulling into her driveway at the same time. She was coming home from her CLOSING shift at sports bar in the Seaport District at 10:15! She said that the owners are talking about moving the renovations scheduled for March up to the end of January due to the lack of business.

  173. @Jack D
    @Bill

    Exactly. Omicron is turning out to be similar to the flu - there is a vaccine but it's not 100% effective (especially if you don't take it). But he discounts the Omicron IFR without similarly discounting the flu IFR and so concludes that the Omicron IFR is half that of the flu. If I had to guess, they are similar. Probably Omicron would be worse except for the fact that most of the most vulnerable have recently received 3 doses of vaccine.

    But yeah, we don't shut down schools and theaters every year during flu season. It's accepted that it's endemic and we are never getting rid of it. A certain # of mainly old people will die from it every year. We try to give everyone who wants it, especially the elderly, flu shots every year but if they don't want them we don't fire them from their jobs. We don't destroy our economy over the flu.

    For political reasons if nothing else (and as far as they are concerned, there IS nothing else) the Biden Administration is very soon going to declare "victory" over Covid the same way as they declared victory in Afghanistan. If it all goes to shit after they declare victory (and it probably won't anyway), it won't be their fault (and the media sure as hell aren't going to hold them accountable). The only hard part will be getting the unionized teacher back to work when they have been enjoying their paid vacations and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.

    Replies: @Bill, @That Would Be Telling, @Flying Dutchman

    Exactly. Omicron is turning out to be similar to the flu – there is a vaccine but it’s not 100% effective (especially if you don’t take it). But he discounts the Omicron IFR without similarly discounting the flu IFR and so concludes that the Omicron IFR is half that of the flu. If I had to guess, they are similar. Probably Omicron would be worse except for the fact that most of the most vulnerable have recently received 3 doses of vaccine.

    No, it’s you who made that mistake. Omicron and Flu both have vaccines which vulnerable people take at high rates. You don’t need to discount anything. Omicron looks like Flu because it is like Flu. It makes no practical difference whether its IFR is half, equal to, or double that of Flu.

    The real difference is that infection with Flu doesn’t protect you against infection by something far worse, whereas infection with Omicron very likely does. Nothing should be done to slow the spread of Omicron, and Omicron parties are probably a good idea.

  174. @Rob
    @ic1000

    Thank you for the links. I hate to praise myself, but more than that I love to. I don’t see how they can be right, just given “the” virus is not a thing, there are a whole bunch of individual genomes evolving each on its own following short-term gain because that’s just how evolution rolls.

    Also, the teleology! “The virus wants...” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo. There’s just no way the quasispecies, the “cloud” of viral genomes in sequence space, can punish a genome that goes a little deeper into the lungs or replicates a little more vigorously than would be optimal for the group of viruses in some poor bastard’s airways to spread to some other unfortunate soul.

    I think my objections are fatal to the general theory or “tendency.”

    Does anyone want to venture an opinion? Is there something I'm just not taking into account?

    Maybe if few enough pathogens are transferred to each new host that virulence-causing adaptations are lost and hard to reacquire?

    Thank you again for the links.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @John Johnson, @ic1000

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo.

    When your immune system kills you it is normally through what is called a cytokine storm. That is actually not what happens most of the time with COVID. The virus reproduces in your lungs and does so much damage to where you can’t breathe. Cytokine storms can be detected in the blood stream so this isn’t merely theory.

    The Spanish flu was deadly to soldiers because of the cytokine storm response in the second wave mutation. The better your immune system the more vulnerable you were to it.

    Viruses tend to mutate to become less deadly because they aren’t actually trying to kill you. They are more like computer code run amuck and are more likely to reproduce if they linger and transmitting. Thus mutations over time do tend to favor transmissibility instead of lethality. There is no hard and fast rule here though. A virus can mutate to be deadlier and more contagious. For example a virus could mutate to favor a longer asymptomatic phase so more people get it before it starts reproducing like crazy. Spanish flu is a good example because it turned much deadlier after the mutation.

  175. Marty Makary (Hopkins) on the WSJ Editorial Report this morning was saying that Omicron behaves so very differently from prior variants that it’s too bad that it is technically referred to as a form of Covid. He was basically saying, politely, It’s just the flu, Bro.

    Later he placed a magnitude upon the direction of viral evolution being in the direction of less severe symptoms. I had not heard anyone being quantitative until now. Greater than 99%, he said.

    I connect the above two paragraphs to predict a future in which new variants will be incredibly wimpy as far as symptoms go, but because they technically owe their lineage to ancestral Covid, they will be called Covid and will instill anxiety and harsh restrictions.

  176. I suspect high Omnicron numbers in the vaxed due to an overconfidence bias. They got vaxed, thought they were safe, and began to socialize without masks or distancing.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Anon

    I find this unconvincing. In my neck of the woods the vast majority are vaccinated and boostered and are still scared shitless of the omicron. Probably a couple hundred in the local BJs today and just me and one other middle aged cranky white guy were maskless.

    , @Flying Dutchman
    @Anon


    I suspect high Omnicron numbers in the vaxed due to an overconfidence bias. They got vaxed, thought they were safe, and began to socialize without masks or distancing.
     
    It's because the injection itself is making them sick. It's clear that if "Covid" exists, the cause of its respiratory symptoms is the spike protein itself, not some other action of a virus.

    By hijacking your own cells to cause them to produce an inundation of spikes and flood the whole body with them, the injections cause your own body to give you Covid in the most direct, unadulterated way, unhindered by any barriers of environment or anatomy.

    So it was always predictable and now is confirmed that the vaxxed would "get Covid" at much higher rates than we who have confidence in our natural unaltered immune systems.

    The only question is to what extent these alleged "Omicron" cases really are part of the opening round of the VAIDS pandemic we predict the mass injections will cause to break out among the vaxxed.
    , @William Badwhite
    @Anon


    They got vaxed, thought they were safe, and began to socialize without masks or distancing.
     
    "masks"...good grief some people are hopeless.
  177. @aNewBanner
    @slumber_j

    No, the Biden regime can’t end the panic. First, it’s beyond their influence to rewrite the script of the establishment media. Though the media tends Democratic, they have interests beyond the Party. Second, there are too many people invested in a continuing COVID response, and these people have too much power. The Chicago teachers union just forced the city to back down again in the name of COVID. Why would they give up COVID hysteria to save Joe? He’s a lost cause at this point. Third, the Biden regime needs the emergency powers from COVID to battle other crises, like inflation. They would need to start a war or something to retain these powers without COVID. (Nervously checking on Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran…)

    Replies: @Rooster12

    I think they’re realizing this particular psy-op has run its course; only the most loyal still subscribe to the official narrative. I believe this administration will half heartedly agree the pandemic is over around March, just in time for a big media push tied into Match Madness. I knew they’d at least drag it out until the Spring, when Fauci said he expected it to be over at that time… the writing was on the wall. They will really start to push the “we must remain vigilant” agenda as they transition into the climate change narrative. If we let our guard down, or let those evil Republicans have any power, we’ll find ourselves in the same situation again comrades!

    What I think will be the most interesting thing to watch is how this has changed social interaction. Will people not go out to eat as often, rather doing carry out or drive up? Will companies continue to allow work from home almost exclusively, or try to pull workers back into the office? Will people continue to hold smaller family get togethers at holidays, or will certain family members only remain family on Facebook and continue to not actually show up at functions?

    Ultimately I think things will get back to close to “normal”, but with the constant message of “always be ready!”, when they decide to roll out a new disease around 2024, many people will be frothing at the mouth to get back into lockdown mode. Many people don’t want to go into work, or family functions, or even get out of the house or their car. The lockdown gives them everything they want and more while still being able to virtue signal online. Our way of life has changed for the foreseeable future, although I do see brief periods of “normal” they will allow; if only to heighten the compliance for the next rollout.

    • Replies: @slumber_j
    @Rooster12

    Yeah, I think that's about right. Thanks.

  178. @Dumbo
    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point, and I don't even trust whatever you have to say, given your past record on the issue. We have been bamboozled for two years and there is no indication we are not being bamboozled right now, too. I don't even believe "Omicron" exists or is the same as "Covid".

    Andrew Anglin might be a nut, but he's been more right about this whole issue than Sailer, Thompson, Crochan, Karlin and all the supposed "high IQ" HDB crowd.

    Because it is NOT about science or a pandemic. It's about changing society and controlling people in new ways. But if some people did not understand that by now, I guess they never will...

    Replies: @El Dato, @Alrenous, @AndrewR, @Anonymous, @BB753, @Greta Handel, @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Hangnail Hans, @Reg Cæsar, @Dennis Dale

    No offence, Mr. Sailer, but one cannot trust anything the media say[ ] about Covid at this point…

    Or at any point. It should be called “the Goldman flu”:

    [MORE]

  179. @Rob
    @ic1000

    Thank you for the links. I hate to praise myself, but more than that I love to. I don’t see how they can be right, just given “the” virus is not a thing, there are a whole bunch of individual genomes evolving each on its own following short-term gain because that’s just how evolution rolls.

    Also, the teleology! “The virus wants...” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    I think that, if viruses actually do evolve to be less deadly, it is because your immune system kills you, the viruses are selected to avoid the cellular antiviral response, and you can kill it off through some mechanism that does not leave drowning in mucus with inflamed lung linings before the virus can turn you into goo. There’s just no way the quasispecies, the “cloud” of viral genomes in sequence space, can punish a genome that goes a little deeper into the lungs or replicates a little more vigorously than would be optimal for the group of viruses in some poor bastard’s airways to spread to some other unfortunate soul.

    I think my objections are fatal to the general theory or “tendency.”

    Does anyone want to venture an opinion? Is there something I'm just not taking into account?

    Maybe if few enough pathogens are transferred to each new host that virulence-causing adaptations are lost and hard to reacquire?

    Thank you again for the links.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @John Johnson, @ic1000

    Rob, I do think your rebuttal of the conventional wisdom regarding “viruses get milder” isn’t convincing.

    [MORE]

    > the teleology! “The virus wants…” No! Bad biologist! Bad!

    Maybe cut them some slack. ‘Everybody’ knows what you are getting at. It’s easier to convey concepts this way, although it can lead to misinterpretations. Usually, longer discussions include a demurral, “viruses are inanimate, this language is a shorthand.”

    The infecting respiratory-virus virion will turn into a “cloud” if it’s able to infect the host. Members of the cloud will have zero to a few mutations, thus will be identical or very closely related to the original. The original virion turns out to be “successful,” the more its descendants infect other hosts that beget other “clouds” and so forth.

    So the point remains that, all else being equal, a virion whose descendant “cloud” causes its host to experience mild symptoms (sniffling, coughing, sneezing) for a prolonged period of time will generally be more successful than one that causes its host to die quickly.

    Whether the host recovers, or dies slowly after spending time sniffling, coughing, and sneezing — that should be a matter of indifference to the virus (I’m being humorous by imputing motive to the microscopic agent).

    Host-virus interactions and the countermeasures taken by the host immune system constrain the theoretical “strategies” the virus can employ. But I don’t think it changes the fundamental picture.

    • Replies: @Rob
    @ic1000

    Cloud is just a metaphor for quasispecies diversity. There is no necessary center to a cloud that no genome can get too far from. The fact remains that within an infection, there is a selection for spreading better within that host. This happens even though it is not in the best interest of the virus. There is “fecundity” selection inside every cell. Maybe the fact that you shed virus for a while before the immune response kicks in is a clue to this. “The” virus benefits from having you walking around and shedding virus, but within you, the selection favors increased reproduction, which means increased virulence.

    If temperature in the lungs restricts it from infecting the lower respiratory tract, that’s pretty easy to evolve around. We can select viruses that replicate well at lower temperatures quite readily. I’m not sure if anyone has tried to select viruses that have higher temperature cutoffs than the wild type. Mammalian cell cultures don’t grow well at around 41 °C. While temperature sensitivity, meaning heat intolerance, is easy to select or intentionally modify in a protein. High thermal tolerance is harder to get. The most effective way is to reduce the number of conformations the unfolded state has, reducing the entropy gain when the protein unfolds. That is harder to do, as the best way to do it requires cysteines in the right places so that the disulfide bridges constrain it when unfolded. That requires paired mutations in places that don’t interfere with the folded state. Hard to evolve. But, most proteins are only marginally stable. This makes sense because once it is, say, 99.9% folded there is little fitness to be gained by being more stable, so it really cannot evolve to be more stable, implying that small improvements in thermostability are probably easier to evolve by selection at high temperature if you are only looking for improvements of a few degrees at reasonably low temperatures, say, under 40 °C.

    I found a paper about selecting a phage for thermotolerance during storage. They got a big effect on tolerating high storage temperature. Cited other papers showing phage adaptation to higher temperatures. It all suggests an experimental setup. Create multiple, individually genetically uniform e coli cultures with a thermal gradient. Infect the cool end with the phage. Incubate for a while, then spread to new setups drawing from the cool end of the cultures. See if later passages have the same ability to evolve thermotolerance. For extra work, one could only passage from phage infections that did not evolve thermotolerance. In these experiments, the cell cultures in thermal gradients correspond to the respiratory tract, passage corresponds to interhost transmission from less-severely ill hosts, and the second+ round of cultures are the new hosts. Think of it also as investigating the evolution of evolvability. Can you select phages that are less evolvable in just a few passages? An improved experiment would have fluid moving from the warm end to the cool end, analogous to mucus.

    Consider HIV. It can take years to kill people, so it could keep its hosts alive longer. It would benefit from not killing people at all. If I recall correctly, the macrophage-tropic version is more infectious interhost than the T cell-infectious version, but most HIV in infected people is T cell-tropic because that’s what intrahost evolution favors. New infections seem to be started by an effective population size of 1-10 virions, so adaptations could be lost.

    I have read that myxomatosis, the virus that was released in Australia to control the rabbit population did not evolve to be less virulent, the rabbits evolved resistance, but in a quick Google search, I could not find the paper. Regardless, if I remember correctly, the death rate of the rabbits went from ~99% to ~30%, but 30% is still a really high death rate.

    But not every cold turns deadly. Most do not, but why? In nursing homes colds are deadly, that’s mostly due to immunosenescence, but maybe colds are effectively a vector-borne disease in nursing homes? Nurses and aides can spread the disease even though patients are very sick. I wonder if people who work at nursing homes get much more severe colds than other people do?!? That’d be really interesting. Maybe see whether their spouses or also do. Check them out because people who work at nursing homes probably get exposed to high doses of viruses.

    Viruses not being deadly by their evolution is pretty much disproved by all of our anti-viral adaptations. From all the interferons to all the interferon regulatory factors, all the interferon-regulated genes, each one of these is an adaptation. From the origin of each protein to crafting the proteins in intricate interactions... The toll-like receptors are not there just for fun. All told, these are probably thousands of adaptations. They are probably not there to keep you from feeling cruddy for a week.

    Here’s a potential test: are diseases milder in Mexico and the rest of Latin America? They have lots of Indians with less-capable immune systems. Have respiratory viruses in Latin America evolved to be less virulent? When yanks go to Mexico and pick up a cold, is it milder than colds here?

    There’s a hypothesis that the mild and people co-evolved. I saw it on Peter Frost’s blog, but i don’t know if he’s the creator. The idea is that mild respiratory infections up-regulate anti-pathogen defenses and make people more resistant to serious infections like tuberculosis. This is not insane. I don’t have a problem with the idea of co-evolution, but I have trouble seeing how it works. Mutualism requires a way of punishing defectors, which I guess could be the antiviral responses killing cells infected with fast-reproducing viruses more quickly, leading to more virulent genomes replicating less. I think it is possible that people utilized “mild” respiratory viruses to up-regulate defenses. Sort of the way the body uses environmental stress to keep muscles strong rather than just keeping muscle mass high through endogenous factors. It also depends on the frequency of co-infection. If two different genotypes tend to share a cell’s resources, intracellular selection favors the faster-replicating one.

    Here’s an example of the way evolution works that does favor “the infection.” Have you ever read about defective interfering particles? They were discovered in cell culture, but have been detected in real infections in vivo. DIPs are partial genomes. They have the packaging sequence, so they are encapsidated just like regular genomes. They have the cis features for replication, but they are missing vital genes, so they cannot complete the viral “life”-cycle. DIP genomes are shorter, so they are replicated faster than complete genomes, depriving full genomes of a vital resource. Then they are packaged in pro-capsids/nucleocapsids, stealing yet another resource. Finally, when packaged and released from the cell, they compete for binding the cellular receptor proteins, depriving full genomes of entry into cells, yet another part of the means of replication. If the DIP is the only “virus” in the cell, then that cell does not release any virus. Depending on the DIP, it may not even make viral proteins. It certainly won’t release infectious virus.

    Some viruses have either evolved to not produce DIPs or just don’t produce them because of their lifestyle. Viral DIPs make infections milder. Is the tendency to produce DIPs an adaptation of the viruses to make infections milder? Maybe?

    Lastly, one must consider that hosts are not adapted to new viruses very well. Perhaps new ones kill off the people who lack an important antiviral defense, and then the survivors are better suited to survive the virus? This was a hypothesis the “let ‘er rip” people had, though they did think in evolutionary terms, just in environmental terms like killing old people.

    If viruses actually do evolve to become milder, then lockdown-style measures might ve more reasonable than one might think. At one extreme, if one person gets the virus and directly infects everyone in the world, then the transmission chain length is one. In that case, the virus does not have a chance to evolve to be benign. At the other extreme, if the virus daisy-chains and each infected person infects one other person until everyone in the world had been infected, then the average length of the transmission chain is, um, left as an exercise for the reader (yeah, that’s the ticket!) and the virus has lots of opportunities to evolve into mildness before everyone has been infected.

    The disease was so bad back in the day, maybe each one of the 160 or rhinovirus serotypes killed 1% of the population every time it hit the “virgin soil” of a naive population. Who would be able to tell? Interestingly, old accounts of disease often do not match any modern disease. Perhaps they had “weird” symptoms because the people who had symptoms like that from the disease left very few descendants to show those symptoms today. Likely, analogous things happened to people in Africa/Eurasia over thousands of years that happened to American Indians over hundreds of years.

    Replies: @Rob, @ic1000

  180. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn't seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @John Johnson, @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross, @JMcG

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn’t seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    But that would only happen if they got Omicron at the same time.

    Fortunately the average hospital stay for Omicron is only 3 days which is 70% less than Delta. But more importantly we aren’t seeing unvaccinated on ventilators for weeks which is really what was taking up beds. NYC is already on the downslope of their curve.

    New York hospitals are having more problems with staffing. What happens is that an asymptomatic nurse gets a positive test but still has to quarantine. It’s the Omicron staycation. Honestly the testing in most cases is rather pointless. If you have a sore throat right now it is probably Omicron. Anyone that works in medicine is going to get it. No point in keeping a nurse home that only has a sore throat and no cough.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @John Johnson

    No 80 per 100,000 means right now today, all 80 are in the hospital today.

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @John Johnson

    The nurse in our family told me that she and her colleagues were told not to get tested for COVID. Getting a positive result causes a lot of problems.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @JR Ewing

  181. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Rob

    Put very vaguely: the shallower the virus dives into the body the more infectious it is to others and the less deadly it is.

    This is important for natural selection because infectiousness to others is ~8 billion times more important than reaching deeper into the body and infecting more cells.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Put very vaguely: the shallower the virus dives into the body the more infectious it is to others…

    This seems to be true of memes as well. Not to mention Twitter.

    …and the less deadly it is.

    There the analogy breaks down.

    the more infectious it is to others

    Is that redundant, or not?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Reg Cæsar


    Is that redundant, or not?
     
    Not from my perspective. A virus can be infectious to more of your own cells or your body, or it can be infectious to others.
  182. @slumber_j
    @Redman

    I hadn't known that about the SOTU. Very interesting.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    I actually did notice this. These people are as shameless and simple as high school student council members.

  183. > Even at the start of this epidemic, the average number of years lost was north of 10

    People ignore the life lost by staying at home. You don’t get a boost to your life span because you stayed home. The experiences you missed in that time are permanently gone.

    While some people gained life by not dying to the virus, many people who would have survived the virus nonetheless lost life.

    How do those compare? If 1 million people in the US lost 10 years of life, that’s 10 million YL. To match this, 330 million people would need to have lost 11 days of life experience, or about 20 minutes per day for 2 years.

    This is over-simplified, of course, but it points to a real thing. If anything, it’s generous to the lockdowns, because people have a lot more “life experiences” per day when they’re younger and healthier.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @megabar

    Your's is a good comment, megabar, because it summarizes one aspect that has sadly been overlooked.

    I write with bias, because almost all of my life I have lived where I hiked, climbed and camped outdoors. America is rich with places for this, and this simple fact seldom gets mentioned -- especially by the nerds who write for the New York Times or any other legacy publication that people still, naively, cling to.

    Getting out of the house is important for one's health. When you live as I have, it is not only easy but pleasurable. When you live as the majority of people now do, it is difficult or a chore.

    I see people every morning, on my way, walking or jogging next to a busy road. They live is dense neighborhoods, so that is their only option. Well, at least they are trying.

  184. @mmack
    @slumber_j

    "Last weekend it dawned on me that the Biden Administration–in desperate need of a win–will again declare victory over the Deadly Virus once this strain has burnt over the populace. I predict such a declaration in late February, and I’d be willing to put money on it. If I’m right, the establishment media will dutifully go along with it in their creepily credulous way, and things can start getting back to normal."

    Could already be happening. Is the groundwork being laid? 🤔

    https://twitter.com/Andre__Damon/status/1482069977826009092?s=20

    As to your report of your symptoms, I had something similar this week. Hardly any worse than your common cold 🤧.

    Replies: @slumber_j

    Yes, I’ve of course noticed a lot of similar stuff being put out there since my epiphany. Confirmation bias or actual confirmation? Or as usual, a bit of both?

  185. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Dumbo


    one cannot trust anything the media says about Covid at this point
     
    Do you think it's credible that the media is in uproar at Boris Johnson over Partygate?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10404315/Downing-Street-held-wine-time-Fridays-week-pandemic-Partygate-scandal-deepens.html

    1. Cromwell's mom would love this.
    2. I'm rooting for the execution of Johnson and his body displayed prominently in a gibbet until the birds pick the flesh down to the skeleton. Plus another 365 days.
    3. If they can't pull that off, lock him up in the Tower of London and feed him nothing but starvation ration bread and water.

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0435/8452/0350/files/Boris-Donald.jpeg

    * the argument could be made this is not media content on the subject of covid per se but let's not quibble. No fighting in the war room!

    Replies: @usNthem, @YetAnotherAnon

    What’s infuriating about Partygate (and has probably doomed Johnson – the men in grey suits will be visiting any day) is that they were ignoring the rules that they were forcing the rest of us to obey – whether the rules were justified or not is immaterial.

    Amazingly, the head of the Covid Task Force – Johnson’s top woman in terms of Covid organisation – thought she could justify a drinks party when she left her job – at a time when you could only have five or ten people at those more permanent leaving events called funerals.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-60009287.amp

  186. @Achmed E. Newman
    @ganderson

    I'm sorry to hear about all your grief up there in western Mass, Mr. Ganderson, especially regarding your favorite activity, hockey. To me making a requirement for people to wear masks during exercise is not only unhealthy, not only ludicrous, but a real example of how the officials want to rub their authority in.

    If I didn't think they were really, really stupid (most are), my next guess would be that they are having a little fun with their evil ways - "Oh, yeah, you think double-masking is hilarious? In my city, I'm gonna require them in swimming pools, and then ... here hold my beer. Watch this!"

    Replies: @Buckaroo

    And here I was thinking that it is eastern Massachusetts that can’t be topped for its Covidian cult/panic/insanity. I regularly see masked people jogging before 6am when I (on my bike) and they are the only human beings in a quarter mile radius. Do they think the virus works like radiation? The imbecillic and totalitarian requirement of masking outside went away last year so they are doing this voluntarily. Needless to say, during the day well over 80% of people on the streets of Boston are facediapered.

    To be clear, I am a liberal in the classic sense and normally wouldn’t care if these people wore hazmat suits whenever they stepped out of their own bathrooms. But they are clearly just itching to impose their paranoia and fascist tendencies on everyone else. Or re-impose. Or perma-pose. You get the idea.

    And since we seem to be keeping score here: the fam and I got vaxxed and boosted, mainly to make travel abroad possible. But, despite being as careless as the law allows otherwise, none of us got the coof. I am starting to feel left out.

    • Thanks: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Buckaroo


    And here I was thinking that it is eastern Massachusetts that can’t be topped for its Covidian cult/panic/insanity. I regularly see masked people jogging before 6am when I (on my bike) and they are the only human beings in a quarter mile radius. Do they think the virus works like radiation? The imbecillic and totalitarian requirement of masking outside went away last year so they are doing this voluntarily. Needless to say, during the day well over 80% of people on the streets of Boston are facediapered.
     
    In the middle of winter a lot of people have found out that facemasks perform the secondary function of keeping your face warm.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  187. @Paul Rise
    I was roasted a few weeks back here by a few commenters when you asked for predictions - I said Biden admin misreads omicron and predicted we could see 10k per day deaths..

    My math was off - I think we will easily exceed 5k US deaths at peak, breaking the previous record set on Jan 12, 2021 (~4100 I believe).

    Note this grim anniversary was not mentioned in any recent news coverage.

    I'm curious is anyone knows whether there is a Biden plan B for the pandemic now that vaccine mandates were bounced by Supreme Court?

    Is Biden warpspeeding new vaccines - perhaps one based on Omicron?

    Is Biden using the defense production act to produce antivirals and therapies that are documented to improve outcomes?

    I noted that CDV mask guidance was revised yesterday- the better part of two years have passed that many shared these observations.

    The reality is this - the only tool we have are vaccines that were formulated around the earliest version of the virus. The virus is evolving with each infection and its clear that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, while improving outcomes, its not halting infection significantly and in many cases isnt resulting in what most of us would call "mild" infections. My young neighbor - 38, physically active with a young family to support - was laid low by the virus for almost 2 weeks recently. He was double vaxxed and boosted more than 3 weeks before.

    I'm also curious what the Biden team would do if Pi or whatever emerges and tears through a key industrial or materials nation, or if it emerges as more infectious and also with increased virulence from declining vaccine efficiency.

    I think we can all agree lockdowns were useless. Perhaps even increased spread - and we don't want to live on fear.

    Are we all ready to have a severe cold and flu like symptoms every year like clockwork? That seems to be what we are hearing from the "let er rip" crowd (that Nicolas Nassim Taleb refers to as "psychopaths").

    I haven't had a cold in 15 years and never had the flu. I had two grandparents die from "colds."

    I think Biden has given up on any numbers of fronts. The worst is yet to come.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz, @3g4me, @Colin Wright, @Patrick McNally, @Buzz Mohawk

    ‘…Is Biden warpspeeding new vaccines – perhaps one based on Omicron?…’

    It shouldn’t be too hard. After all, as we’ve already seen, the ‘vaccine’ doesn’t have to work or anything. That’d be a nice add-on — but it’s not essential.

  188. @megabar
    > Even at the start of this epidemic, the average number of years lost was north of 10

    People ignore the life lost by staying at home. You don't get a boost to your life span because you stayed home. The experiences you missed in that time are permanently gone.

    While some people gained life by not dying to the virus, many people who would have survived the virus nonetheless lost life.

    How do those compare? If 1 million people in the US lost 10 years of life, that's 10 million YL. To match this, 330 million people would need to have lost 11 days of life experience, or about 20 minutes per day for 2 years.

    This is over-simplified, of course, but it points to a real thing. If anything, it's generous to the lockdowns, because people have a lot more "life experiences" per day when they're younger and healthier.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Your’s is a good comment, megabar, because it summarizes one aspect that has sadly been overlooked.

    I write with bias, because almost all of my life I have lived where I hiked, climbed and camped outdoors. America is rich with places for this, and this simple fact seldom gets mentioned — especially by the nerds who write for the New York Times or any other legacy publication that people still, naively, cling to.

    Getting out of the house is important for one’s health. When you live as I have, it is not only easy but pleasurable. When you live as the majority of people now do, it is difficult or a chore.

    I see people every morning, on my way, walking or jogging next to a busy road. They live is dense neighborhoods, so that is their only option. Well, at least they are trying.

    • Thanks: megabar
  189. @Harry Baldwin
    At the moment, both Paxlovid and the one monoclonal antibody that works on omnicron, sotrovimab, are in very short supply.

    Were this October 2020, the media would be screaming at Trump about this at every opportunity. Biden gets a pass.


    WASHINGTON — December 27, 2021 -- President Biden claimed Monday that his administration “didn’t reject” an expert plan in October that called for mass distribution of free at-home COVID-19 tests before Christmas — even though his team declined to adopt the idea. . . .

    Biden has repeatedly expressed regret about not acting more quickly to make free tests more widely available. Last week, he announced a plan to make 500 million tests available to Americans through direct order, but the initiative won’t begin until January. . . .

    Biden said at a virtual meeting with governors on Monday that he’d have “gone harder, quicker” to distribute COVID-19 tests if he’d expected a surge in infections.
     

    Still, the Narrative press will give Biden a pass.

    During one of Biden's town hall campaign appearances, he blamed Trump for every single person who had died from COVID-19: "If the president had done his job, had done his job from the beginning, all the people would still be alive. All the people — I’m not making this up. Just look at the data. Look at the data."

    Confused old man who occasionally wanders out of seclusion and randomly yells cannot be held accountable.

    Replies: @Brutusale

  190. iSteve commentators are never more insufferable than when discussing covid. Stick to history and skip the medical advice, thanks.

  191. @ganderson
    @Hypnotoad666

    We’re starting to lock back down here in Western Massachusetts. Amherst and Smith Colleges have announced they will begin the semester remotely. Amherst has banned spectators from its indoor athletic events, and Amherst and Smith, as well as the local high school have banned cloth masks- you must wear an N 95 or whatever the hell they’re called, or be, and I’m not making this up, double masked. My hand surgery has been postponed till who knows when, Municipalities are debating whether to redefine fully vaccinated as 3 jabs.
    Oh and the MIAA, the governing board for high school athletics in the state, has reaffirmed that all winter indoor athletes, mainly hoops and hockey, must wear masks while they are playing. The mask requirement for pupils in class has been extended to at least mid February, The MTA, the statewide teachers’ union, is lobbying heavily for a return to remote classes; so far sausage-spined RINO governor Charlie BakerParker is resisting- we’ll see if that continues.
    My wife had NPR on while she was cooking dinner the other night- it was a non stop 45 minutes of CoronaPanic. My local Hampshire county daily paper is all panic, all the time. Two of our neighbors, who normally walk their dogs with my wife refused to do it this week because we had been to Michigan and back over the weekend. And yes, we’re all vaccinated.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Brutusale, @kaganovitch

    Yeah, I was scheduled to have my hip done next week. I sent an email to Sorry Charlie’s office wishing he could feel ONE day of the pain I’m feeling and still tell me that the surgery is “elective”.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
    @Brutusale

    Sorry to hear that. My hand can wait, but I had scheduled it so as not to miss golf - now I’ll miss about a month. I know, first world problem, but it’s not necessary. I now drive a half hour to the gym rather than 5 minutes to avoid the mask mandate.
    I’m a retired HS teacher, and I’m ashamed of the behavior of many of my fellow teachers, who wish to hide under their beds.

  192. @epebble
    Hard to get info on Omicron, which does seem to be flu like in symptoms.

    But, for what it is worth, CDC Excess Deaths Statistics for most recent few weeks are:

    Dec 4, 2021: 15.6%
    Dec 11, 2021: 14.8%
    Dec 18, 2021: 6.5%


    Obviously, the most recent weeks Statistics are incomplete. Christmas and New Year are slow anyway.

    15% excess deaths seems statistically significant.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    But there was also a modest winter Delta wave going on until Omnicron became close to all dominant, perhaps in January. In SoCal Kaiser Permanente’s 14 of the 15 Covid deaths in December were still due to Delta.

    On the other hand, maybe there are some poor bastards who reacted very badly to Omicron who are currently lingering in hospitals and will eventually die from it.

    Analyzing a moving target like this is hard work, although the Kaiser paper authors did work hard.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    @Steve Sailer

    Excess death statistics on that short a time frame are less than ridiculous. They are absurdly meaningless.

    Replies: @for-the-record

    , @John Johnson
    @Steve Sailer

    But there was also a modest winter Delta wave going on until Omnicron became close to all dominant, perhaps in January. In SoCal Kaiser Permanente’s 14 of the 15 Covid deaths in December were still due to Delta.

    That is correct.

    Omicron had not pushed out Delta in many of the west coast states until the end of December. There were in fact hospitals that already had patients from Delta Christmas parties.

    That also leaves the possibility of Delta patients getting Omicron.

    On the other hand, maybe there are some poor bastards who reacted very badly to Omicron who are currently lingering in hospitals and will eventually die from it.

    Over 95% will be unvaccinated that were able to avoid Delta. They are the ones that are gambling.

    If you survived Delta then you will survive Omicron but the vaccine will make it much easier.

  193. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    “Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I’m assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement.”

    TWBS, you’re back earlier than expected – I hope you enjoyed your vacation. I see your employer Pfizer sent you to fanboi for the Moronic clot\$hot\$ debuting in six weeks. Boost baby boost!

    So when people are getting the Moronic shots en masse prolly April/May, what will Pfizer name the variant – aka the dis-ease and death – caused by your defective product? Y’all sticking with IHU? Holla back, my shill!

  194. @Rooster12
    @aNewBanner

    I think they’re realizing this particular psy-op has run its course; only the most loyal still subscribe to the official narrative. I believe this administration will half heartedly agree the pandemic is over around March, just in time for a big media push tied into Match Madness. I knew they’d at least drag it out until the Spring, when Fauci said he expected it to be over at that time… the writing was on the wall. They will really start to push the “we must remain vigilant” agenda as they transition into the climate change narrative. If we let our guard down, or let those evil Republicans have any power, we’ll find ourselves in the same situation again comrades!

    What I think will be the most interesting thing to watch is how this has changed social interaction. Will people not go out to eat as often, rather doing carry out or drive up? Will companies continue to allow work from home almost exclusively, or try to pull workers back into the office? Will people continue to hold smaller family get togethers at holidays, or will certain family members only remain family on Facebook and continue to not actually show up at functions?

    Ultimately I think things will get back to close to “normal”, but with the constant message of “always be ready!”, when they decide to roll out a new disease around 2024, many people will be frothing at the mouth to get back into lockdown mode. Many people don’t want to go into work, or family functions, or even get out of the house or their car. The lockdown gives them everything they want and more while still being able to virtue signal online. Our way of life has changed for the foreseeable future, although I do see brief periods of “normal” they will allow; if only to heighten the compliance for the next rollout.

    Replies: @slumber_j

    Yeah, I think that’s about right. Thanks.

  195. @Nodwink
    The original virus was fairly harmless to people under 80, with decent immune systems - as coronaviruses tend to be. If only maybe half of modern society were familiar with the science (a basic layman's grasp would suffice), we wouldn't have fallen for many of the traps the global elite set for us.

    Replies: @lavoisier

    If the virus was bioengineered by humans, all bets are off as to how this thing plays out.

  196. As the Conventional Wisdom is that there will be piles of rotting unburied corpses everywhere because of this Omicron thing, here’s some appropriate music:

  197. @John Johnson
    @Jack D

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn’t seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    But that would only happen if they got Omicron at the same time.

    Fortunately the average hospital stay for Omicron is only 3 days which is 70% less than Delta. But more importantly we aren't seeing unvaccinated on ventilators for weeks which is really what was taking up beds. NYC is already on the downslope of their curve.

    New York hospitals are having more problems with staffing. What happens is that an asymptomatic nurse gets a positive test but still has to quarantine. It's the Omicron staycation. Honestly the testing in most cases is rather pointless. If you have a sore throat right now it is probably Omicron. Anyone that works in medicine is going to get it. No point in keeping a nurse home that only has a sore throat and no cough.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Achmed E. Newman

    No 80 per 100,000 means right now today, all 80 are in the hospital today.

  198. @Jack D
    @Bill

    Exactly. Omicron is turning out to be similar to the flu - there is a vaccine but it's not 100% effective (especially if you don't take it). But he discounts the Omicron IFR without similarly discounting the flu IFR and so concludes that the Omicron IFR is half that of the flu. If I had to guess, they are similar. Probably Omicron would be worse except for the fact that most of the most vulnerable have recently received 3 doses of vaccine.

    But yeah, we don't shut down schools and theaters every year during flu season. It's accepted that it's endemic and we are never getting rid of it. A certain # of mainly old people will die from it every year. We try to give everyone who wants it, especially the elderly, flu shots every year but if they don't want them we don't fire them from their jobs. We don't destroy our economy over the flu.

    For political reasons if nothing else (and as far as they are concerned, there IS nothing else) the Biden Administration is very soon going to declare "victory" over Covid the same way as they declared victory in Afghanistan. If it all goes to shit after they declare victory (and it probably won't anyway), it won't be their fault (and the media sure as hell aren't going to hold them accountable). The only hard part will be getting the unionized teacher back to work when they have been enjoying their paid vacations and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.

    Replies: @Bill, @That Would Be Telling, @Flying Dutchman

    we don’t shut down schools and theaters every year during flu season.

    But we do shut down schools occasionally during some parts of some normal, non-pandemic but above average flu seasons. Whereas whatever its severity in the short term, Omicron is definitely in a pandemic stage in much of the US. Fortunately with plenty of early signs that’s starting to wane.

    Not sure about this “Biden” declaring “victory” concept after he waved the white flag of surrender on December 27th, saying “Look, there is no federal solution. This gets solved at a state level.”

    OK, in context it’s not so bad, but that doesn’t matter so much in politics, especially with people as maladroit as, well, Biden always was, but worse now that he’s 79, and Harris.

    I can well see them declaring victory, perhaps Afghanistan style as you outline, but I sense neither of them thinks they’ll get a handle on teachers’ unions and teachers, critical parts of the Democratic base who are doing Left a great deal of harm right now. And all this was after “Biden” pivoted to COVID to I believe distract from other disasters, but without a real plan, initially fell flat on “his” face as the FDA said “No” to premature applications for mRNA second boost doses or a boost dose for Janssen (their Phase III studies were not far enough along), and otherwise failed to move the needle. Which also won’t happen with Pfizer’s drug for a while as the supply chain for making it by the ton is established.

    and weaning all the other government entities and dependent populations off of their Covid gibmedats.

    That’s going to be “interesting” one way or another.

  199. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.
     
    Ohh, touched a nerve, did I? Don't feel bad; you are conversing with your choir. 99th Percentile here, dude.

    Spare me your miles of beds in the city. Words again, my friend, dramatic, schmaltzy words. 80 people per 100,00o is still only eight-per-ten-thousand, and you haven't even clarified what that means. Is it 8/10,000 of all the people in those cities? What is it, exactly? Is it 8/10,000 of people admitted to hospitals? Is it 8/10,000 of people with confirmed cased of COVID?

    Please, do tell.

    Maybe NYC should consider increasing the number of its hospital beds, if they can't be prepared even for this, whatever it is. I'm 50 miles away, and it hasn't effected me or anyone I know -- at all. How are things going there in Philly, in amongst those row houses you are gentrifying?

    Proportions matter:

    If I told you that 8/10,000 of the miles between us and the Andromeda Galaxy were filled with Hersey's chocolate bars, you would think, "wow, that's a lot of chocolate!" and you would would be right. But in NYC, they should have enough hospital beds for a scenario when 8/10,000 people with a certain illness actually need them.

    Proportion matters. Size does not, and you have based your entire argument against me on size, not proportion. Since you are an intelligent man, I will therefore assume you are being deceptive.

    BTW, have you heard that practically nobody who goes now to a hospital for COVID ever needs a ventilator? And have you heard that almost all of those people are out it a couple of days? So, please, consellor, spare me your verbal drama. It falls on deaf ears -- and, BTW, why do you try so hard to persuade me to think differently? Why is this so important to you? What is your gain from this?

    Replies: @Brutusale

    At the girlfriend’s place more than half of the Covid patients are homeless. Omicron is like wildfire in the homeless population. Three hots and a cot.

    They also serve the lockdown maniacs’ purposes; being unvaxxed they pad the numbers.

    The People’s Commonwealth has spun out of control. The mask mandates are back. Some restaurants and bars have announced that they’re only accepting vaxxed customers. Because our state government is a spineless RINO and a bunch of broads, we’re looking down the barrel of a vax mandate, too.

    I say go wild, girls. You haven’t killed the entire hospitality industry in the commonwealth yet.

    Last night the girl wanted the fish at a certain place that we like, but it’s a tough ticket without a midweek reservation. Last night we rolled in at 7:00 and sat right down. After dinner we decided to grab a beer at a nearby brewery, Night Shift, where there’s always a line. It was about 3/4 full last night.

    The kicker was when we got back to my place and my restaurant manager neighbor was pulling into her driveway at the same time. She was coming home from her CLOSING shift at sports bar in the Seaport District at 10:15! She said that the owners are talking about moving the renovations scheduled for March up to the end of January due to the lack of business.

  200. Re: whether viruses evolve to be more or less deadly.

    Possibly the biggest factor is simply statistics. If you randomly change a virus, will it become more or less deadly? My guess it that it’s often neutral, but when it’s not, it’s more likely to become less deadly, simply because there are far more harmless protein strands than virulent ones, and I would assume that moving 1 step in any direction from a harmful protein will _generally_ have more proteins that are less harmful.

    Then, there is the question of dependence between virulence and transmissibility. I could imagine that there are scenarios in which they are independent, and scenarios in which they are linked.

    In theory you could model this, by looking at (a) rates of typical mutations, and then calculating (b) virulence and (c) transmissibility of the resulting strains. I would guess that (a) is fairly easy, (b) is hard, and (c) is not really possible.

    But IANAVirologist, so all of this is pure guesswork.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @megabar


    But IANAVirologist, so all of this is pure guesswork.
     
    Neither am I, but I have been learning about since the 1970s and even used one in that decade for lab work and you're doing very well.

    If you randomly change a virus, will it become more or less deadly? My guess it that it’s often neutral, but when it’s not, it’s more likely to become less deadly, simply because there are far more harmless protein strands than virulent ones, and I would assume that moving 1 step in any direction from a harmful protein will _generally_ have more proteins that are less harmful.
     
    While this is absolutely correct, there's a consequence of most "less harmful" proteins: they also don't work, that is, with the change "the virus can't virus." There are "conserved" regions of the genome where practically any change is fatal, as well as many regions where some changes are innocuous but others are very bad news. There are also what I'll call kinda weird changes like in the N for nucleocapsid protein which were important to Alpha, and for Delta, not sure about Alpha, allowed it to pack in more copies of the virus's RNA payload.

    Ideally vaccine and natural immunity includes targeting conserved regions. A disturbing thing, maybe only this early in the "game," is that natural immunity is not sterilizing. Maybe that's just because the variants are a moving target, have not studied what we think we know about reinfections.

    Replies: @megabar

  201. A. Stanford’s John Ioannidis famously penned a well-documented article arguing that most published research findings were simply false.

    B. The CDC itself admits that the Covid test is false.

    And yet Sailer bases a whole raft of conclusions on false, or highly probably false, research findings and tests. Without a word of disclaimer about their possible falsity.

    Gee, no wonder I take his IQ fantasies with a grain of salt.

  202. “If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality”

    As I understand it, more infectious pathogens are generally more not less lethal. This is because less infectious pathogens, being less infectious, have difficulty spreading to new hosts and hence evolve so as not to kill their current host because, if they do, they will perish with that host. In contrast, more infectious pathogens can afford to kill their hosts because they will already have spread to new hosts by virtue of their infectiousness.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @VEL

    No the opposite is true. More lethal means more likely to kill the host before it spreads.

    That is why the cold is around while the original SARs never became a pandemic. The human population would be a fraction of what it is if the cold kept mutating into deadlier forms.

    Bird flu is another example. It isn't that contagious but it is very deadly in humans.

    We don't know how many people have gotten it and were killed but never tested.

    The long term fear has been of bird flu mutating so it spreads in humans. That was the predicted scenario and not China d-king around with an unknown bat virus.

  203. @El Dato
    @Dieter Kief


    Until proven wrong, assume that life knows its way
     
    Dinosaurs and civilizations previously living near amazingly energetic cosmic events strongly disagree!

    prestabilized harmony
     
    These ideas were unfortunately born out of an overly idealistic and religious Weltanschauung. There is scant grounds for optimism along such cosmic lines.

    All we know is that change is a game of chance.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    prestabilized harmony

    “These ideas were unfortunately born out of an overly idealistic and religious Weltanschauung. There is scant grounds for optimism along such cosmic lines.”

    – “We here at Taki’s Magazine take life lightly”. – That’s what I had in mind, while writing my post above about Leibniz ‘n’ stuff (the nearing end of the Corona hardships).
    And I wouldn’t take Leibniz hostage for mankinds past sins – let alone our actual ones.

    For me it all boils down to say, that it might be rather useful to understand Omicron as a glass that is at least half full.

    And ok – the dinosaurs and all that – we’re lucky that we are no dinosaurs – and have never been too close to being one. –

    – Seen from a human standpoint, evolution has turned out quite nicely. – And why not?!

  204. Something else to consider. If the virus was engineered to be deadly, chances are mutations will make it less deadly. That’s because random mutation without environmental pressures will gradually make specific structures fade. For example, the fish in subterranean pools have no eyes because in the complete absence of light, there is no environmental pressure to maintain eyes. Mutations not including eyes will not be selected against.

  205. @Redman
    @Jack D

    South Africa isn’t highly vaccinated and Omicron has been similarly fairly innocuous.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    South Africa isn’t highly vaccinated and Omicron has been similarly fairly innocuous.

    South Africa is about 2/5ths vaccinated by eye, this has been occupation and age prioritized, and with the good stuff, Pfizer/BioNTech and Janssen (they didn’t think AZ/Oxford was good enough for their Beta variant).

    But it has a high level of natural immunity and that’s probably better than two doses of a good vaccine. This is one of the reasons we think early Omicron outcomes over there have largely been replicated in a place like the US where there’s more vaccine immunity in the mix but probably a high overall total.

  206. I currently have it and was double vaccinated and boosted. It is the weakest bug I can ever remember having, in fact, but for it’s persistence I might have attributed it to allergies. I believe my body’s reaction, or lack thereof, is the result of the vaccinations, but even without, it is still a weaker variant.

    The media is addicted to fear porn, any change in the virus is always portrayed in the most dire way. Here’s the truth (at least as I see it), Omnicron is a blessing, the vaccine is a very good pre-theraputic, but does not render a shield from infection, it only protects from severe illness and death. Our body’s own immune system can bestow protective immunity only after it fights the actual infection. Everyone will eventually become infected, at that point this wretched thing will be done. My advice to anyone who is vaccinated and without multiple comorbidities, go out and live.

  207. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    Alright. I can’t believe none of you brought this up.

    Name one symptom. One. Name one symptom ascribed to Covid that is not also ascribed to the flu.

    Don’t worry. I can save you Google time. The answer is, wait for it, There are none!

    Duh.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @obwandiyag

    Name one symptom. One. Name one symptom ascribed to Covid that is not also ascribed to the flu.

    Here's one: coronaphobia

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474809/

    https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/coronaphobia-covid-anxiety-disorder

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronaphobia-doctors-coin-term-for-anxiety-linked-to-the-pandemic-1.5304345

    https://www.expansion.com/sociedad/2022/01/13/61debbafe5fdea3a508b45f0.html

  208. @Justvisiting
    @Adept


    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.
     
    I was gullible enough at college to think the big name philosophers actually knew something.

    The philosophy course I took reading all the major works of Heidegger permanently removed the scales from my eyes.

    To any young folks thinking about taking such courses--don't do it. You will learn much more from your stoned friends at parties--with no exams and no papers.

    ;-)

    Replies: @Alrenous, @Dieter Kief, @New Dealer

    Aristotle left Plato’s Academy to found the Lykeion because the Academy was (and is) a bad idea. It is sufficiently likely that the reason Plato liked Socrates so much was that he literally had a crush on him. The Academy was largely a dating service. Plato was into smart boys.

    Heidegger is the worst existentialist. Here’s everything good in Heidegger: thesis antithesis synthesis. Okay we’re done.

    Plato’s Academy was a terrible idea and unfortunately almost every Western scholar has faithfully followed the Academy’s footsteps. It is still largely a dating service. The only real improvement was allowing women into the Academy – some philosophers are into heterosexuality, after all.

    And this is why I don’t call myself a philosopher anymore. Sorry, Plato was a ***. Call me an alchemist before you call me a philosopher. The Academy likes Heidegger because he was basically a *** too. I dunno if literal sodomite, but he might as well have been.

    Best existentialist was Kirkegaard. He asked all the right questions. Unfortunately he was insufficiently dedicated. Also closer to an atheist than a pious man, despite his many protestations. He could have found answers to the questions, instead of stopping at asking. The latest name-brand philosopher who is actually worth reading is Descartes. Even then, read a summary, not the man himself. Seriously needed an editor.

    • Replies: @vinteuil
    @Alrenous


    Aristotle left Plato’s Academy to found the Lykeion because the Academy was (and is) a bad idea
     
    I thought it was because TPTB at the Academy selected Plato's nephew Speusippus instead of Aristotle to run the place after Plato's death.

    ...the reason Plato liked Socrates so much was that he literally had a crush on him.
     
    Everybody with any taste had a crush on Socrates - even though he was, notoriously, the ugliest man in Athens. Alcibiades, we're told, practically tried to rape him.

    The Academy was largely a dating service.
     
    I don't think the surviving written materials support that claim.

    Here’s everything good in Heidegger: thesis antithesis synthesis.
     
    Heidegger, Hegel...whatever. Some German philosopher starting with H.

    ...this is why I don’t call myself a philosopher anymore...
     
    Did you used to?

    Replies: @Dennis Dale, @Alrenous

  209. @Steve Sailer
    @epebble

    But there was also a modest winter Delta wave going on until Omnicron became close to all dominant, perhaps in January. In SoCal Kaiser Permanente's 14 of the 15 Covid deaths in December were still due to Delta.

    On the other hand, maybe there are some poor bastards who reacted very badly to Omicron who are currently lingering in hospitals and will eventually die from it.

    Analyzing a moving target like this is hard work, although the Kaiser paper authors did work hard.

    Replies: @obwandiyag, @John Johnson

    Excess death statistics on that short a time frame are less than ridiculous. They are absurdly meaningless.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @obwandiyag

    Excess death statistics on that short a time frame are less than ridiculous. They are absurdly meaningless.

    Here are some on a larger time frame -- 2021. Notice anything interesting?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FHNkFpEX0AU2fAO.jpg

    Replies: @Old Prude, @epebble

  210. @ic1000
    @Dieter Kief

    DK, your comment prompted me to go back to the Great Barrington Declaration. It was posted on October 4, 2020, over a month before evidence of the efficacy and reasonable safety of Pfizer's jab became known.

    With the benefit of fifteen months' hindsight, this short essay reads very well indeed! A map for the Road Not Taken.

    It returned to the headlines last month, when news broke that Narrative celebrities had worked behind the scenes to suffocate reasoned discussion of the GBD's core idea, Focused Protection. From STATnews, the FOIA'd 10/8/20 email from NIH supremo Francis Collins to Anthony Fauci and others. Thanks to its brevity, the force of their anti-intellectual dogmatism shines through.


    Hi Tony and Cliff,

    See https://gbdeclaration.org/ This proposal from three fringe epidemiologists who met with the Secretary seems to be getting a lot of attention - and even a co-signature from Nobel Prize winner Mike Leavitt at Stanford. There needs to be a quick and devastating published takedown of its premises. I don't see anything like that on line yet - is it underway?

    Francis
     

    Further thoughts:

    * The vaccines seemed to achieve near-complete "sterilizing immunity" against the SARS-CoV-2 strains that were circulating in the first half of 2021. If that had held, it would have created common policy ground between the doctrinaire public-health/medical establishment and Focused Protection advocates. The establishment was unwittingly and foolishly placing a multi-trillion-dollar bet that sterilizing immunity would continue -- even though it was generally known by October that this bet had already gone bust.

    * In the past week, I've put some time into looking for safety information on vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. It is very difficult to find solid statistical treatments of this very important subject. My qualitative impression -- which seems to be shared by Martin Kulldorff of the GBF and the Attia podcast interview referenced earlier -- is that the mRNA vaccines are on the "more risky" side of the "generally safe" window. The issue of greatest concern appears to be vaccine-provoked myocarditis among healthy young men, in the days and weeks after a second or third (booster) dose. Given that SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild in this group, especially after one dose, the case for repeat jabs does not appear to be supported by risk/reward analysis.

    * To be clear, I remain strongly pro-vaxx. For older people and people with comorbidities, the risk/reward case for vaccination and boosting appears very strong. However, given the vaccinated's susceptibility to infection by new variants, herd immunity arguments are invalid. "You owe it to society" boils down to "be prudent in your behavior so as not to overburden hospitals." That strikes me as a weak justification for coercive policies that violate the principal of Autonomy. And how does one weigh the justified loss of trust in medicine and public health, when the antics of people like Fauci, Collins, and Biden -- among others -- come to light?

    Replies: @clyde, @Mark G., @Dieter Kief

    To be clear, I remain strongly pro-vaxx.

    You come across as calm and reasonable and not the type of person to engage in high levels of verbal abuse. There has been a little too much verbal abuse on both sides and I’m guilty of that myself. To make this a less emotional issue, it would be better to take it outside the realm of politics and make it a matter of individual choice.

    Good doctors tailor treatments to each individual patient rather than using a “one size fits all” approach. If you allow them to use the treatments they want and allow patients to pick the doctors they want there should be no problem. I would not be for banning something like Ivermectin but I also would not be for banning the vaccines either. It’s hard to do a risk-benefit analysis of the vaccines since we don’t know the future risks but so far it appears they do a good job of reducing deaths among older people. The only major side effects, as you mention, appear to be among younger people.

    Once doctors can decide whether they want to use conventional treatments, alternative treatments or vaccines then insurance companies can decide what they are going to pay for. Private companies and government agencies can decide whether to require vaccines for their employees. I work for the military and was required to get vaccinated. If I didn’t want to do that I could have quit or retired since I’m 65. I don’t think state vaccine mandates are a good idea but at least there you don’t have the same Constitutional issues that caused the Supreme Court to strike down the federal mandate for private employers. Let the voters in each state decide what they want their state government to do.

    • Agree: ic1000
  211. @Ben H
    Omicron has been where I live for about two months now:

    - it's really contagious, everyone is getting it (the shot, for people who like that sort of thing, is useless)

    - anecdotally, even prior immunity - much better than the shot - doesn't work well (a person I know had delta just a couple of months ago and got this one)

    - omicron is far less rough than original covid or delta but you still get sick - think of a annoyingly lingering cold or flu that never feels very serious or worrying

    It will end covid, it simply isn't serious enough or scary enough for anyone except the people who really love lockdowns, masks and shots for their own sake or who are emotionally attached to the scare story narrative

    Replies: @Bernard

    It will end covid, it simply isn’t serious enough or scary enough for anyone except the people who really love lockdowns, masks and shots for their own sake or who are emotionally attached to the scare story narrative

    Completely agree, but I’m concerned (just short of certain) that the COVID pandemic will create the template for an endless parade of these events in the future. The power bestowed on government is too tantalizing to resist. Our feminized society values safety above all else and to that end, will happily trade freedom and liberty for it.

    • Agree: res, Old Prude
    • Replies: @MGB
    @Bernard

    I don’t share ‘the light at the end of the tunnel’ optimism either. The children are primed for the next end of the world crisis actors dinner theatre event. My children (in their 20s) exhibit much skepticism, but the younger set is fully indoctrinated. Seeing them masked, hunched over their smart phones, completely oblivious to their environment, waiting for the school bus is depressing. As if this wasn’t part of the plan.

  212. @Justvisiting
    @Adept


    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.
     
    I was gullible enough at college to think the big name philosophers actually knew something.

    The philosophy course I took reading all the major works of Heidegger permanently removed the scales from my eyes.

    To any young folks thinking about taking such courses--don't do it. You will learn much more from your stoned friends at parties--with no exams and no papers.

    ;-)

    Replies: @Alrenous, @Dieter Kief, @New Dealer

    Martin Heidegger’s work is that of a true concept- or term-storyteller (as such he is a genius).That’s the reason his writings made this rather humble man from one of the poorest and most backward regions of Southern Germany world famous. He had nothing but his nine years in Konstanz’ Suso-Gymnasium, his enthusiasm, his ideas and his genius. No status, no money, no support – he did it all on his own.After his death, his numerous books lived on – and more of them appeared in print. And they still do. The sixth Japanese translation is out and on it’s way. His not that easy to grasp books are read in 40+ languages. And even if you think that that is all superficial crap, you’d still have the problem to explain how it came that so many brillliant minds did study his works and – found: Yep, great and insightful stuff (Hans-Georg Gadamer (Truth and Method) , for example, or Jürgen Habermas (Truth and Justification; The Theory of Communicative Action), Robert Brandom (Making it Explicit) and Richard Rorty (The Mirror of Philosophy). Or see here Tanabe Hajie and Hung Yao-hsun about Heidegger in East Asia: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326622099_Reception_and_transformation_of_heidegger’s_philosophy_in_east_Asia_From_Tanabe_Hajime_and_Hung_Yao-hsun – – – (…).

    (I do not so much disagree with your remarks about the ability to learn from – let me paraphrase – from talking with your friends. – Irony above all ironies: Heidegger was very much in favor of talking with others – not least about everyday subjects. In the end, that was one of his core beliefs: That it mattered to debate and discuss and – cultivate the (philosophical) dialogue – not least in everyday contexts and about simple things (like the Dirt Road (very charming little book by him) or the stuff we have around us/ with us in everyday life.)

    • Replies: @Adept
    @Dieter Kief

    We're getting way off topic so I'll keep it brief. The problem with Heidegger is that if you strip his writings of that "storytelling" (which is mostly inane and labyrinthine, written to confuse and obscure rather than to educate and clarify,) -- in other words, if you simplify it and throw away the jargon -- there's not much there. What's left over is really trite and banal stuff. "We are thrown into the world." "Being is always the Being of an entity."

    No wonder this is the same guy who said "Making itself intelligible is suicide for philosophy." Suicide for his philosophy, certainly, because there's really nothing to it; it's just smoke and mirrors for the academia crowd. If Heidegger is a genius, his genius lies in coining jargon, self-promotion, and in dense, self-referential writing. As a philosopher, though, his musings are basically identical to those of a drunk 18 year old.

    There's something profoundly unserious about all of the existentialists, really.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  213. @HA
    @Erik L

    "looking at the graphs in the study, they show cumulative probability of death for even the delta variant as below 0.1%. Isn’t that the low end CFR number for seasonal flu?"

    It is indeed, if most of the population is vaxxed, which thankfully it is. For them, it really has been pretty much just-a-flu this past year. When the just-a-flu-bros pop in to remind us that there were more COVID deaths in 2021 than in 2020, they forget to also mention that their own Darwin awards are the primary reason for that.

    That being the case, maybe it would make them feel better if we changed their cause of death listing from COVID to "irony".

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Erik L

    You exaggerate a bit. All cause excess deaths didn’t really start taking off in the US until the end of March (and we were somewhat unprepared due to CDC ineptness plus FDA malevolence sandbagging testing), while COVID was serious for all of 2021, with Alpha became the most prevalent strain in March. As I recall, general vaccine availability didn’t happen until April or so.

    But you’re generally right, or as John Nolte put it, “Data Confirms Trump Counties Dying to Own the Libs.” Irony indeed.

    • Thanks: HA
  214. @HA
    @Ben Kurtz

    "We’ve never before upended all of society in the name of preserving nursing home inmates in life for an additional few months if fading dotage."

    We're ALREADY overwhelming ER's and ICU's, even though the vaccines continue to do a remarkably good job of keeping people out of those. People who need those beds for cancer operations or diseased kidneys are seeing their operations get pushed back. Overworked doctors and surgeons are likely making even more deadly mistakes than usual.

    Now, try and run the hospital-bed-availability with double or triple that rush, and then you really start to see some serious carnage, and not just among the elderly.

    And give me a break, you're still trying to pretend this was just about saving "an additional few months"? Even before the vaccines, the average number of years lost to a COVID death was north of 10, and grew significantly once the elderly were vaxxed, at which point the median death age dropped precipitously (and the number of years lost spiked up).

    This is from Feb 2021:


    We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women....The average years of life lost per death is 16 years.
     
    I've seen other analyses that put the number at closer to 11, but they were generally less comprehensive. And don't forget the myocarditis. The just-a-flu-bros are real worried (and in some cases, positively gleeful) about the rise of that over the last year. What they don't bother to tell you is that the myocarditis risks from COVID itself are significantly worse than those associated with the vaccine. Let's hope that whoever is affected by that finds an available hospital bed.

    Replies: @anon, @vinteuil

    It’s so important to you that you’d copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies? How much are you paid?

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @anon

    The more relevant question is how much mammon are you getting paid by your handlers.

    , @HA
    @anon

    "It’s so important to you that you’d copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies?"

    For years now, I've been hearing on this site how great it'd be if we had a government that did for their people what Israel and Netanyahu did for theirs. Or maybe Putin. And with COVID, and that so called "Trump vaccine" that Kamala warned us all about, you finally got a government that tried to do exactly that.

    Were you happy? No, you were even more ticked off, and started whining about how you wished we could be more like Sweden. Seriously -- Sweden! And you think anyone is ever going to take you seriously?

    Maybe if people like you could put together a narrative that you actually believed in, to the extent that when it finally went your way, you wouldn't start throwing tantrums like bratty six-year-olds and start blaming SAILER, of all people, for getting it wrong, maybe at least some of what the alt-right is saying would start to get taken seriously (given that there are plenty of people on the left who are as obsessed with the Jews as some of you seem to be). But until you're able to do that, don't complain about the so-called MSM lies if you won't even buy into your own talking points.

    And when it comes to finding out -- after all these months of hearing about the "clot-shot" and the massive myocarditis die-off that the anti-vaxxers are eagerly anticipating (any day now, mind you) -- that actually, COVID is more likely to give you clots than the vaccine, so that the anti-vaxxers are going to be the front wave of any such die-off, well, that's just comedy gold, and worth doing for free.

    Replies: @Dmon, @anon

  215. Fear of death is a sure indicator you’ve bowed to Satan’s thrall.

  216. OT,there’s some kind of ruckus at a synagogue in Texas. This the false flag we’ve been expecting?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Bardon Kaldlan

    Not red folder. Pakistani. Pakistani protesting the imprisonment of his terrorist sister, I believe at the nearby military base, hence the location.
    Journalists in turmoil, after Biden's bad week. The sweet suffering ...

  217. @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success. They will be using it in fact to make flu vaccines more effective. Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot.

    If there is a future SARs outbreak they will be able to dial up mRNA vaccines quickly. They really are an amazing technology that "just happen" to come from a Bad White country.

    The anti-vaxx side was wrong and they should just man up and admit it.

    Real men admit when they are wrong and move on. It really should have been over when the hospitals were overloaded with the unvaccinated. That was the time to throw in the towel and not double down on conspiracy theories from AM radio hosts and Doctors with econ degrees.

    I have been part of a losing movement before and I know how it feels. Sucks but you gotta cut your losses and move on.

    The real conspiracy in the West is race denial and not this damn virus that most likely came from China f-king with it.

    Replies: @Dmon, @Mr. Anon, @The Anti-Gnostic, @Thoughts

    “Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot.”

    Based on the continually diminishing interval between mandatory boosters, I’m expecting a weekly Covid shot.

    • LOL: Old Prude
  218. @anon
    @Dieter Kief


    Now that we’re through with this Covid thing (or close to being through)
     
    We may be approaching the end of COVID as a serious killer, but we're nowhere near the end of Corona, the social/political phenomenon. Some of the most severe restrictions on personal liberties, the vaccine passports, are only now being rolled out in major US cities.

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we've done to our societies over the past two years.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Dieter Kief

    It will be decades before we fully understand the extent of the damage we’ve done to our societies over the past two years.

    I’ve debated that question a lot lately. If I’d make my point very short, I’d say, most of the damage lies right in front of our eyes and is not that hard too detect or understand. And the things we suffer most from – ar not new at all.
    My bottom line is: Emotions have taken the upper hand in our debates (and lives). – Rationality is looking rather poor lately. – Our take on science and our understanding of the proper role of science has suffered quite a bit as well. As a pars pro toto take what Dr. Scott Atlas writes in his book A Plague Upon Our House about the total lack of scientific data / aspects in the meetings that were held in the White House with the CDC et. al.
    Thus what the Covid debate looked like over vast stretches of time and space – was more a Religious Cult than a reasonable debate (that’s the main covid-thesis of science-blogger Hail-to-You, who has written some impressive essays about this subject starting in spring 2020.

    Here is the link to Mr. Hail’s site. behind the more knob are some of the thoughts I’ve posted at Mr. Hail’s site lately about the very questioon you asked: What is the damage , that was done here?

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/

    Mr. Hail wrote above: “I do not think this kind of International Relations-theory-based hypothesis explains the Panic, but it does explain one part of it (…).”

    Ok, I’ll try.

    I – Prologue

    The bard Bob Dylan I quoted in my last comment above in the song “Senor” sings – on his Christian – LP Street Legal about “Tales of Yankee Power” – and then he goes on to ask: “Can You Tell me Where We’re Headin’ – Lincoln Country Road or Armageddon”. – And then he says: “The last thing I remember, before I stripped and kneeled / Was that trainload of fools bowed down in a magnetic field.”

    II – Kunstler & Tucker

    Jeffrey Tucker from The Brownstone Institute in the interview with Howard Kunstler speaks of a dynamic which is best expressed by the ex-Marxist (!) David Godhart in his book “The Road to Somewhere”: The elite classes do have a tendency to get caught in the “magnetic field” of elite-inbreeding (mentally & intellectually too) – and that, I’d say, is then what is perceived as a form of US-hegemony.
    Logically this US-hegemony-thesis makes no sense if the aggressor – the US – suffers from the same problem. – And JeffreyTucker says that the US clearly do suffer too – and that it hurts the US badly and – that that is a dynamic he – being a liberterian – has clearly underestimated so far. – A trap for being a liberterian, as he seems to clearly understand now – is to overlook the damage that the self-isolation of the elites does to them. By literally looking down on fly-over country and by metaphroically looking down on the deplorables by giving them this name does hurt them in turning them partly into self-deceivers – and self-decapitators.

    they are thus loosing touch with the non-digitalized part (= big, no: Huge parts of not only societal, but also physical reality (For those who know this stuff – this is Georg Wilhelm Freidich Hegel’s dialetic of the master and the servant in his masterwork The Phenomenology of the Spirit (1807)).

    I think Jeffrey Tucker refered to Goodharts (and Jonathan Haidts and Jordan Petersons…) claim that we see how the elites (in part) blind themselves by standing too close together, so to speak.

    They lose – the bard again – the Street Legality perspective – the perspective of regular folks – the perspective of the country roads. Btw. – Howard Kunstler is a man who – consciously! – decided to go back to the land himself – and live with regular folks and even do gardenenig etc…. – in short: Howard Kunstler decided to become a Somewhere – and said often, that that is what helped him in his political and societal analyses too.
    Those in the functional elites (the (Western) 30% worldwide) handed themselves over via their self-isolation/ digitalization to a rather snowflaky – and – – sterile – – way of self-centeredness, fixated to their – one and only! – little souls (German novelist and essayist Hermann Peter Piwitt in the 80ies about an early form of snowlfakery and hyper-sensitivity and hyper-feminism (In his essay collection Boccherini and Other Cicvilian’s Duties) !

    III – Somewheres and Anywheres

    That’s how individualism does make your thought system rather detached from reality and thus fragile. Because seen from the perspective of a highly individualized life (Bill Gates’ perspective, too) it appears to be a high risk to – live… And it makes the others – the dark masses out there – look dangerous! – – So – let’s lockdown and self-isolate us from them. Martin Kulldorff was the one to point this aspect of the pro panic lockdowners out time and time again. It is a form of class-division – now as a laptop-class vs. blue collar workers (= Anywheres against Somewheres).

    IV – Somewheres and The Coddling of the American (= Western Mind) – The Snowflake-Epidemic

    So – there is a tendency in the (often childless, and very feminist leaning and more and more a-religious elite of the western upper 30% (the functional elite…) to be and act overcautious – and that’s I think what happened in part in Denmark too – and what did help to establish Lockdwons as a global norm.

    There are more subtle things going here as well.

    What the EXPRESSEN article in my last comment above makes clear perfectly well is that the Danish at times did lean too much to the official panic side. And here I agree in part with your argument of the political hegemony of the US, because this leads to an international panic coalition. But that is not driven politically in the first place, but mentally/ and in mediatised ways. – State representatives in Denmark are also part of the 30% of the functional elites in the West, which tend – to be Anywheres throughout – and thus do identify with super-individualism to make this point extremely short – and .t.h.u.s. panic (the same reason Bill Gates did panic).

    But – an important but here: The elites had a point in that they were pro vaccine and – Bill Gates proves now that he is not completely blinded by the panic part of his – spirit. He does now say: After Omicron we’re done and this whole thing is over. – And this is accepted widely now in Denmark and – for the moment – seems to be the most important move.

    I do welcome every single soul chiming in to the Omicron-is-the-end-of-Corona choir!

    I’m a bit hesitant about what will happen in Germany in this regard. Panic is still rather strong here. Even though things are getting better by and large – the editor in chief of Die weLT, Ulf Poschart, wrote an editorial yesterday saying science had not been correctly covered by the German media and understood by the politiclal leaders – that science and the scientific discourse need free speech and can’t reasonably function without it – and that – yes – mistakes have been made and – need to be corrected! – I made him aware numerous times of the direction of the Danish example in the migration discussion. And – yesterday he wrote this article about the necessity freedom in scientific debates and he ran a decent article about the Expressen self-critic I’ve linked above. So… – we’ll see how this will turn out to be.

    V – -. – -. – – Codas in various Forms

    a) Individuality and Loneliness

    Two points I want to just stress. Individuality and loneliness are very closely related and loneliness sure is what scares the hell out of people in The Lonely Crowd. – The (Christian) religion is opposed to this kind of – existential rooflessness ( Georg Lukacs) and super-
    individualism – and in being so, it is liberating by helping people to – belong.

    b) The Womenfolk as panic-drivers

    The role of emancipated women in this whole panic-dynamic. They often are childless and highly mobile (= rootless & (metaphysically) roofless) and they are now often in a position where they lead the way (German media is heavily influenced by them – in parts (political talk-shows are even women- dominated)) – – – which adds up to them being a discernible factor of the panic-boosterism. And I think women are biologically informed, so to speak, to be over-cautious, because you get pregnant quite fast but are a mother for long periods of time. Now – for being a mother it is not the most important thing to be principled (Jordan Peterson hints at this important difference betwen men and women here and there). –

    c) An Art Historian as a Canary in the Academic Goldmine in the 1990ies ff.

    That goes along quite well with postmodernism, which is not least an attack on principles and sound arguments. See Jürgen Habermas: The Philosophical Discourse of Modernity – or the shorter version: Listen to Jordan B. Peterson’s talk with Camille Paglia about postmodernism.

    In any case – read the brilliant article by Julia Friedman in The New Criterion about Dave Hickey. – He was an an art critic, who – a few years after Habermas and: Yours truly, who both started to strongly and publicly oppose postmodernism/deconstructivism ca. 1985 ff. – ahh, that’s what I wanted to say: Dave Hickey did see the postmodernist/deconstructivist disaster coming and – this is important – – Dave Hickey expressed his disgust about it and his criticism of it right away in super-clear and super-condensed words, which is a great achievement. – I highly recommend reading the linked below article about him

    https://newcriterion.com/issues/2022/1/the-man-who-laughed-in-church

    d) Death and Birth and Death and Birth (Joni Mitchell – Don’t Interrupt the Sorrow)

    Another addendum: The elite’s 30 % and lots of the women in there are 1) childless and 2) Anywheres. – Both things – childlessness and being Anywheres are two big obstacles if you want to come to grips with death.

    And death was the central theme of the pandemic.

    e) Growing Old in big numbers while Losing My Religion (R.E.M.) / The Hunger for Structure (Erich Fromm)

    The last addendum: Since we in the West are living in societies which are getting older and older – and since religion does not work that properly any longer, those rather close to death old folks are all too happy to succumb to the Corona-cult. – They feel good inside this bubble – and – – – – feel they are understood by the authorities deep down inside and – – respected! – They are very grateful for this panic cult and the panic cult most likely saved lots of them from getting completely lost (in angst and depression) because it did serve the .n.e.e.d.s. of a cult (cf. Émile Durkheim). As Erich Fromm said time and time again: People have a natural longing or hunger for structure (that comes in the first place). I can say this from lots of conversations with and observations of older folks me and my wife happened to have and discussed with (and spoke about) often in the last 23 months.

    [MORE]

  219. @Anon
    I suspect high Omnicron numbers in the vaxed due to an overconfidence bias. They got vaxed, thought they were safe, and began to socialize without masks or distancing.

    Replies: @MGB, @Flying Dutchman, @William Badwhite

    I find this unconvincing. In my neck of the woods the vast majority are vaccinated and boostered and are still scared shitless of the omicron. Probably a couple hundred in the local BJs today and just me and one other middle aged cranky white guy were maskless.

  220. @JimDandy
    Hate to be a buzzkill, but Omicron is still deadly serious for people with 10 or more comorbidities.

    Replies: @Matthew Kelly, @Sam Malone

    I’m happy to see you tagged yourself as a troll. Hard to find that kind of honesty in commenters these days lol.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Matthew Kelly

    It was all I could do to keep from hitting the "Troll" button in response to your response. It would have been pretty hilarious, but that's not the kind of man I am. I mean, it is, but, whatever, thanks.

  221. @Adept
    @Dieter Kief


    To be = to be at risk (Heidegger put that Existential this way: We humans are thrown into existence
     
    No offense, but that is literally the most trite philosophical observation of all time. It has no explanatory power, and no metaphysical (or predictive) weight. No wonder Heidegger had to couch it in such dense jargon!

    Hell, the "I never asked for this" meme did it better. And that originated with video game writers earning $0.03/word.

    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @martin_2

    Existentialism in general, like most 20th century philosophy, is about as deep as a muddy puddle when you get right down to it.

    “The Being by which Nothingness comes into the world is a Being, such that in its Being, the Nothingness of its Being is in question. The Being by which Nothingness comes into the world must be its own Nothingness.”

    Sartre.

    So there!

    • Replies: @Flying Dutchman
    @martin_2


    “The Being by which Nothingness comes into the world is a Being, such that in its Being, the Nothingness of its Being is in question. The Being by which Nothingness comes into the world must be its own Nothingness.”

    Sartre.

    So there!
     
    He was predicting how the PCR test would work.
  222. @Dieter Kief
    @Justvisiting

    Martin Heidegger's work is that of a true concept- or term-storyteller (as such he is a genius).That's the reason his writings made this rather humble man from one of the poorest and most backward regions of Southern Germany world famous. He had nothing but his nine years in Konstanz' Suso-Gymnasium, his enthusiasm, his ideas and his genius. No status, no money, no support - he did it all on his own.After his death, his numerous books lived on - and more of them appeared in print. And they still do. The sixth Japanese translation is out and on it's way. His not that easy to grasp books are read in 40+ languages. And even if you think that that is all superficial crap, you'd still have the problem to explain how it came that so many brillliant minds did study his works and - found: Yep, great and insightful stuff (Hans-Georg Gadamer (Truth and Method) , for example, or Jürgen Habermas (Truth and Justification; The Theory of Communicative Action), Robert Brandom (Making it Explicit) and Richard Rorty (The Mirror of Philosophy). Or see here Tanabe Hajie and Hung Yao-hsun about Heidegger in East Asia: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326622099_Reception_and_transformation_of_heidegger's_philosophy_in_east_Asia_From_Tanabe_Hajime_and_Hung_Yao-hsun - - - (...).

    (I do not so much disagree with your remarks about the ability to learn from - let me paraphrase - from talking with your friends. - Irony above all ironies: Heidegger was very much in favor of talking with others - not least about everyday subjects. In the end, that was one of his core beliefs: That it mattered to debate and discuss and - cultivate the (philosophical) dialogue - not least in everyday contexts and about simple things (like the Dirt Road (very charming little book by him) or the stuff we have around us/ with us in everyday life.)

    Replies: @Adept

    We’re getting way off topic so I’ll keep it brief. The problem with Heidegger is that if you strip his writings of that “storytelling” (which is mostly inane and labyrinthine, written to confuse and obscure rather than to educate and clarify,) — in other words, if you simplify it and throw away the jargon — there’s not much there. What’s left over is really trite and banal stuff. “We are thrown into the world.” “Being is always the Being of an entity.”

    No wonder this is the same guy who said “Making itself intelligible is suicide for philosophy.” Suicide for his philosophy, certainly, because there’s really nothing to it; it’s just smoke and mirrors for the academia crowd. If Heidegger is a genius, his genius lies in coining jargon, self-promotion, and in dense, self-referential writing. As a philosopher, though, his musings are basically identical to those of a drunk 18 year old.

    There’s something profoundly unserious about all of the existentialists, really.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Adept

    Adept - if you'd want to have a look at my - way too long, sigh, comment No. 221 above, you'd see, that the back country live is mentioned there in the context of Howard Kunstler, one of the truth-sayers in the Corona-saga.
    And the country lane (or Der Feldweg - the title of of one of Heidegger's - charming even, short books) plays also a significant role in the writings of other dissident voices like the French Cultural Geographer and immigraiton critic Christophe Guilluy (No Society) - and in Michel Houellebecq's novel Serotomine (2019).
    Now Houellebecq did read Heidegger, as did Guilluy. I don't know about Kunstler, but it could well be. - So - it's safe to say that we're not that off-topic here.

    I then would make my point a little bit clearer about the Heidegger reception: None of the philosophers I'v ementioned above who do make extensive use of the work of Martin Heidegger is an exsitentialist: Not Gadamer, not Habermas, not Rorty and not Robert Brandom. I'm not sure whether I could make that clear enough. - Well now I've done that, I'd assume.

  223. @John Johnson
    @ic1000

    It should be noted that a new variation can be less lethal in part to all the people that were killed off in the first wave. There were most likely vulnerable people that would not have survived the mutation had it been first. The flu is a less lethal variant but still kills thousands a year.

    We probably lucked out with Omicron. It appears to have mutated in mice as a highly contagious but less lethal form.

    People including the media are saying it is from South Africa but that is actually unlikely. That is where it was detected and much of the continent simply doesn't have the technology to track variants.

    The best we can do is have it spread among the unvaccinated. This would actually be a great time to have some anti-vaxx conferences.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    It should be noted that a new variation can be less lethal in part to all the people that were killed off in the first wave.

    Sure. They’re already dead. Though they can hang out on doorknobs for 4 to 6 weeks, those viruses can’t tunnel 6 ft. under the ground.

  224. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @ic1000


    a link to an evolutionary biology essay if anybody is interested as to why
     
    Yes. Where's the beef?

    Replies: @ic1000

    > Where’s the beef [re: evolutionary biology reasoning]?

    Please see this comment, Rob’s rejoinder, and my counterpoint.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @ic1000

    OK; comment lag in action there. : )

  225. @TorontoTraveller
    @Hypnotoad666

    I admire Steve and read him every day. I have donated to him in the past, but am probably overdue to send a contribution - I feel a bit like a lapsed Catholic (which I am) in this regard.

    However, I am waiting for him to concede your point, which seemed obvious two years ago.

    In a similar vein, will Cochran ever admit he over-reacted hysterically to COVID? He obviously influenced Steve in this regard.

    Is theirs the first generation who are so terrified of death they don't want to admit that it will come to them in much the same manner it has come to all preceding generations?

    Replies: @MLK

    I am waiting for him to concede your point, which seemed obvious two years ago.

    #MeToo

  226. @VEL

    "If there are fundamental structural reasons that there is a trade-off so that more infectiousness goes along with less lethality"
     
    As I understand it, more infectious pathogens are generally more not less lethal. This is because less infectious pathogens, being less infectious, have difficulty spreading to new hosts and hence evolve so as not to kill their current host because, if they do, they will perish with that host. In contrast, more infectious pathogens can afford to kill their hosts because they will already have spread to new hosts by virtue of their infectiousness.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    No the opposite is true. More lethal means more likely to kill the host before it spreads.

    That is why the cold is around while the original SARs never became a pandemic. The human population would be a fraction of what it is if the cold kept mutating into deadlier forms.

    Bird flu is another example. It isn’t that contagious but it is very deadly in humans.

    We don’t know how many people have gotten it and were killed but never tested.

    The long term fear has been of bird flu mutating so it spreads in humans. That was the predicted scenario and not China d-king around with an unknown bat virus.

  227. This only ends when we stop testing for it, and not a day sooner.

  228. @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    No it isn't about the economy. It's about liberty. It's about living like a human and not a lab rat.

    I no longer expect hysterical cowards with the mentality of a slave - people like you - to understand that.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @HA, @Old Prude

    • Fuckin’ A.

    • Agree: Adam Smith
  229. @Bernard
    @Ben H


    It will end covid, it simply isn’t serious enough or scary enough for anyone except the people who really love lockdowns, masks and shots for their own sake or who are emotionally attached to the scare story narrative
     
    Completely agree, but I'm concerned (just short of certain) that the COVID pandemic will create the template for an endless parade of these events in the future. The power bestowed on government is too tantalizing to resist. Our feminized society values safety above all else and to that end, will happily trade freedom and liberty for it.

    Replies: @MGB

    I don’t share ‘the light at the end of the tunnel’ optimism either. The children are primed for the next end of the world crisis actors dinner theatre event. My children (in their 20s) exhibit much skepticism, but the younger set is fully indoctrinated. Seeing them masked, hunched over their smart phones, completely oblivious to their environment, waiting for the school bus is depressing. As if this wasn’t part of the plan.

  230. @Intelligent Dasein
    Why would Covid be any more likely to become more lethal over time than any of the hundreds of other coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, and influenza viruses that regularly cause upper respiratory tract infections that we live with every day?

    For someone whose bread and butter is supposed to be HBD, it's telling that your articles on the Covid subject demonstrate that you understand absolutely nothing about real-world biology at all. Maybe HBD isn't quite the Real Science!™ it's made out to be. Maybe you should just stick to BBB---Blacks Be Bad. You can continue to quote crime statistics, poverty levels, and other social indicators of dysfunction; there is some actual evidence of those things. But stay out of biology.

    The politicization of Covid-19 has been disastrous from the very beginning. Because of this, we now have the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years, global supply chains freezing up, and governments seizing the plenary authority to confine, imprison, and economically ruin people over their refusal to take a toxic "vaccine."

    Did you know, Steve, that before now there had never been an effective vaccine against a coronavirus? Did you know that before now there had never been a successful mRNA vaccine of any kind whatsoever? It seems like somebody who is interested in science would know stuff like that. If not, you could have just looked at Wikipedia, whose entry on the prevention and treatment of animal coronaviruses chillingly reads as follows (emphasis mine):

    Vaccines are available for animal coronaviruses IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.
     
    Destruction of entire herds. Let that sink in. This is what our Dear Leaders will eventually do to us if we don't stop this nonsense soon. Furthermore, the very statement reveals the stunning impotence of medical science in this regard. If research cannot discover an effective coronavirus vaccine even for farm animals, which are bred by the millions, and to which most ethical standards don't apply, what makes you think it can rapidly develop one for humans that is "safe and effective" against a "novel" coronavirus?

    The vaccines are killing people. The politics of Covid are killing people. The economic destruction is killing people. The lack of proper medical care is killing people. The despair and anxiety are killing people. The Covid-19 infection is not killing large numbers of people, no matter how you look at the data.

    What is the bigger risk here? Where is the real danger? With the virus, or with the government? And why doesn't the internet's soi-disant "noticer" extraordinaire notice any of this?

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @obwandiyag

    Nice one.

  231. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn't seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @John Johnson, @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross, @JMcG

    If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    OMG! They need to find another way to do it then, rather than blocking cross-town traffic all over Manhattan. Who’s running that place now anyway?!

    #StackEmLikeCordwood

  232. @megabar
    Re: whether viruses evolve to be more or less deadly.

    Possibly the biggest factor is simply statistics. If you randomly change a virus, will it become more or less deadly? My guess it that it's often neutral, but when it's not, it's more likely to become less deadly, simply because there are far more harmless protein strands than virulent ones, and I would assume that moving 1 step in any direction from a harmful protein will _generally_ have more proteins that are less harmful.

    Then, there is the question of dependence between virulence and transmissibility. I could imagine that there are scenarios in which they are independent, and scenarios in which they are linked.

    In theory you could model this, by looking at (a) rates of typical mutations, and then calculating (b) virulence and (c) transmissibility of the resulting strains. I would guess that (a) is fairly easy, (b) is hard, and (c) is not really possible.

    But IANAVirologist, so all of this is pure guesswork.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    But IANAVirologist, so all of this is pure guesswork.

    Neither am I, but I have been learning about since the 1970s and even used one in that decade for lab work and you’re doing very well.

    If you randomly change a virus, will it become more or less deadly? My guess it that it’s often neutral, but when it’s not, it’s more likely to become less deadly, simply because there are far more harmless protein strands than virulent ones, and I would assume that moving 1 step in any direction from a harmful protein will _generally_ have more proteins that are less harmful.

    While this is absolutely correct, there’s a consequence of most “less harmful” proteins: they also don’t work, that is, with the change “the virus can’t virus.” There are “conserved” regions of the genome where practically any change is fatal, as well as many regions where some changes are innocuous but others are very bad news. There are also what I’ll call kinda weird changes like in the N for nucleocapsid protein which were important to Alpha, and for Delta, not sure about Alpha, allowed it to pack in more copies of the virus’s RNA payload.

    Ideally vaccine and natural immunity includes targeting conserved regions. A disturbing thing, maybe only this early in the “game,” is that natural immunity is not sterilizing. Maybe that’s just because the variants are a moving target, have not studied what we think we know about reinfections.

    • Replies: @megabar
    @That Would Be Telling

    > there’s a consequence of most “less harmful” proteins: they also don’t work, that is, with the change “the virus can’t virus.”

    Makes sense. So this gets to the notion of dependence between transmissibility and virulence. In other words, what you would want to compute is the weighted average of how virulent a random change is, where the weight is how transmissible the variant is. This can be done, to varying levels of accuracy, statistically or by modeling the changes.

    > Ideally vaccine and natural immunity includes targeting conserved regions.

    It's interesting to me that with the compute and lab tools we now have, it's still difficult to come up with vaccines. You'd think it would be easy to generate candidate protein fragments and test that they safely trigger the immune system, yet provide sterilizing cross reactivity with real viruses.

    And since it's not so easy, I wonder if the difficulty is our ability to generate the right mRNA, or if it's that our immune systems have built-in limitations when dealing with certain viruses.

    Replies: @ic1000

  233. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    This screed is a perfect example of Frank Luntz trademarked diversion talking point number fourteen: load proof on about one little insignificant detail, accuse those who suggest this detail is true of gross stupidity, say this one thing proves they are wrong about everything, and deliberately and assiduously draw away attention from the elephant in the room.

    Who cares what the virus is or isn’t. I mean, it’s just the flu, but who cares if it isn’t. The truth of the matter doesn’t matter.

    What matters is, the vaccines are killing people. And, even more importantly than that, they are sickening everybody, making every vaccinated person’s immune system weaker. And, more important that that, down the road apiece, 5, 10, 20 years, that damage will shorten every vaccinated person’s life, and cripple any survivors.

    • Agree: theMann
    • Replies: @Old Prude
    @obwandiyag

    I, for one, am using the Booster as my excuse to miss work tomorrow. I am going to lie that my reaction (non-existent) to the Booster has made me unwell.

    I am calling in "sick" from work to celebrate black culture on MLK day. POW! The Bird to two birds with one stone.

  234. @Steve Sailer
    @epebble

    But there was also a modest winter Delta wave going on until Omnicron became close to all dominant, perhaps in January. In SoCal Kaiser Permanente's 14 of the 15 Covid deaths in December were still due to Delta.

    On the other hand, maybe there are some poor bastards who reacted very badly to Omicron who are currently lingering in hospitals and will eventually die from it.

    Analyzing a moving target like this is hard work, although the Kaiser paper authors did work hard.

    Replies: @obwandiyag, @John Johnson

    But there was also a modest winter Delta wave going on until Omnicron became close to all dominant, perhaps in January. In SoCal Kaiser Permanente’s 14 of the 15 Covid deaths in December were still due to Delta.

    That is correct.

    Omicron had not pushed out Delta in many of the west coast states until the end of December. There were in fact hospitals that already had patients from Delta Christmas parties.

    That also leaves the possibility of Delta patients getting Omicron.

    On the other hand, maybe there are some poor bastards who reacted very badly to Omicron who are currently lingering in hospitals and will eventually die from it.

    Over 95% will be unvaccinated that were able to avoid Delta. They are the ones that are gambling.

    If you survived Delta then you will survive Omicron but the vaccine will make it much easier.

  235. Do you not yet realize that these tools of social control are way too valuable to ever be discarded?

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    “Do you not yet realize that these tools of social control are way too valuable to ever be discarded”

    A moment of weakness on your part to admit the overall goal of your side. Too much mint julip at your posh Virginia country club?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  236. @anon
    @HA

    It's so important to you that you'd copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies? How much are you paid?

    Replies: @Corvinus, @HA

    The more relevant question is how much mammon are you getting paid by your handlers.

    • Thanks: HA
    • Troll: Alrenous
  237. @Bardon Kaldlan
    OT,there's some kind of ruckus at a synagogue in Texas. This the false flag we've been expecting?

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Not red folder. Pakistani. Pakistani protesting the imprisonment of his terrorist sister, I believe at the nearby military base, hence the location.
    Journalists in turmoil, after Biden’s bad week. The sweet suffering …

  238. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn't seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @John Johnson, @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross, @JMcG

    Yeah, like how the disease was able to totally incapacitate Sweden. I mean, good god, grenadings are down.

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  239. @Buzz Mohawk
    Nothing is happening here, 50 miles from JFK, but everybody except my wife and me is wearing a mask in pubic. We even see people wearing masks while they are driving their cars.

    We don't watch or read the same media these people do. The mask thing happened by surprise to us. Suddenly, everybody around us was wearing a mask, starting a few weeks ago. Fortunately, masks are not required in most places, and so we don't wear them. So far, we haven't been sick, and nobody we know has been sick. I mean not sick from anything at all.

    The mask phenomenon is particularly interesting to me, because I witnessed it here, 50 miles from JFK, all of a sudden. Go into Trader Joe's and every yoga pants lady but my wife is wearing a mask. That sort of thing happened immediately when this Omicron BS came.

    It's not even the flu, bro. Apparently it's a cold, another corona virus.

    So, why all the commotion, news stories and government wranglings? Why is everyone around me wearing a mask, while I haven't been sick in years?

    Replies: @clyde, @Corvinus, @John Johnson

    “The mask thing happened by surprise to us. Suddenly, everybody around us was wearing a mask, starting a few weeks ago”

    It shouldn’t be if you NOTICED.

    https://www.deseret.com/platform/amp/coronavirus/2022/1/12/22881114/do-masks-really-prevent-omicron-heres-what-we-know-covid-n95-risk

    Various studies report different degrees of protection depending on how they were conducted and how data was collected, but a recent meta-analysis of multiple global studies found that masks are linked to a commanding 53% decrease in COVID-19 transmission when worn properly. An Arizona epidemiologist recently told me how N95 masks or surgical masks have proven to be especially effective. “Several studies have found that surgical masks are between 66% and 70% effective,” she said.

    Anyone doubting whether masks work need only look at how airborne diseases decrease in areas with high mask compliance. For instance, Primary Children’s Hospital in Utah ”typically deals with 80 to 120 RSV hospitalizations and dozens of intensive care unit stays per week on top of hundreds of yearly influenza hospitalizations,” as one article noted; however, in the winter of 2020/2021, when most Utahns were still wearing masks while shopping and at work, church, and school, the Salt Lake City hospital reported virtually zero flu or RSV hospitalizations. In fact, airborne illnesses were at an all-time low across hospitals throughout the state at the time.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Corvinus

    So everybody is going to wear a mask ad infinitum to avoid catching a cold. What a great future.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  240. @The Anti-Gnostic
    Do you not yet realize that these tools of social control are way too valuable to ever be discarded?

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “Do you not yet realize that these tools of social control are way too valuable to ever be discarded”

    A moment of weakness on your part to admit the overall goal of your side. Too much mint julip at your posh Virginia country club?

    • Troll: Alrenous
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Corvinus

    He's talking about the side you clap for, you numb-nut. Jesus, you have got to be the absolute most stupid liberal NPC who has ever posted here.

    Here, here's something to listen to while you drink your soy shake, bug-man: https://www.npr.org/

  241. @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success. They will be using it in fact to make flu vaccines more effective. Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot.

    If there is a future SARs outbreak they will be able to dial up mRNA vaccines quickly. They really are an amazing technology that "just happen" to come from a Bad White country.

    The anti-vaxx side was wrong and they should just man up and admit it.

    Real men admit when they are wrong and move on. It really should have been over when the hospitals were overloaded with the unvaccinated. That was the time to throw in the towel and not double down on conspiracy theories from AM radio hosts and Doctors with econ degrees.

    I have been part of a losing movement before and I know how it feels. Sucks but you gotta cut your losses and move on.

    The real conspiracy in the West is race denial and not this damn virus that most likely came from China f-king with it.

    Replies: @Dmon, @Mr. Anon, @The Anti-Gnostic, @Thoughts

    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.

    The vaccines have killed people – probably many thousands. For many demographic groups, there is a greater chance of death or injury from the vaccines than from COVID. People in that group who took the vaccine and died exchanged an insignificant probability of death from COVID for……………death. That’s a crappy bargain. The people who pushed this lunacy should be held to account. People who mandated it should be punished.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success.

    The suck at creating immunity – the chief function of a vaccine. The primary and only function really according to the CDC as of August 2021. The COVID vaccines were so bad at creating immunity that the CDC actually changed their definition of what a vaccine does. That is a matter of public record.

    • Agree: LondonBob, Adam Smith
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    The vaccines have killed people – probably many thousands. For many demographic groups, there is a greater chance of death or injury from the vaccines than from COVID. People in that group who took the vaccine and died exchanged an insignificant probability of death from COVID for……………death. That’s a crappy bargain.

    No vaccine is without risk and that has always been true. With vaccines there is always some 1 in a million case like Guillain-Barre Syndrome. Weirdly enough Jenna Jameson has it. But even that clears up in most cases.

    There are currently thousands of children that are missing a parent because their dad or mom decided to ignore the family doctor and not get the vaccine. They obviously think their parents made a crappy bargain.

    The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people. The goal of herd immunity is to prevent that from happening. I really don't care if that age group gets vaccinated at this point. They are all getting Omicron anyways. Unlike the anti-vaxx crowd I make decisions from the latest information. Half the anti-vaxx crowd still denies that the vaccines even do anything.

    The suck at creating immunity – the chief function of a vaccine. The primary and only function really according to the CDC as of August 2021. The COVID vaccines were so bad at creating immunity that the CDC actually changed their definition of what a vaccine does. That is a matter of public record.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity. The flu vaccine is less effective and during some years is practically worthless. Is that not a vaccine? What about the tetanus vaccine? Should we not call it a vaccine because you can still get tetanus with symptoms?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @BB753, @Mike Tre

  242. Anonymous[586] • Disclaimer says:

    Has Steve said anything about vaccine passports yet?

    Or is he cool with giving the globalist puppeteers of US politicians the authority to make citizenship contingent on being injected with whatever they want, whenever. (And worse. They may need what the ghoul Gates constantly refers to as “the next pandemic” before camps for non-compliance become a thing, or maybe not. Maybe Sailer can address this in between posts of how dumb black people are and the latest Hollywood poison)

  243. @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    No it isn't about the economy. It's about liberty. It's about living like a human and not a lab rat.

    I no longer expect hysterical cowards with the mentality of a slave - people like you - to understand that.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @HA, @Old Prude

    “It’s about living like a human and not a lab rat.”

    I’m pretty sure that lab rats spend a good deal of their time terrified about the next shot they’re gonna have to take, and you think that describes me? Some serious projection you got going there.

    And unlike you, lab rats probably should fear the next shot they’re gonna have to take, which makes your terror all the more pathetic. Now THAT is some serious slave mentality.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    Again with the "needle fear" bulls**t. Nobody is afraid of needles, you pathetic clown.

    Replies: @HA

  244. @Corvinus
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    “Do you not yet realize that these tools of social control are way too valuable to ever be discarded”

    A moment of weakness on your part to admit the overall goal of your side. Too much mint julip at your posh Virginia country club?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    He’s talking about the side you clap for, you numb-nut. Jesus, you have got to be the absolute most stupid liberal NPC who has ever posted here.

    Here, here’s something to listen to while you drink your soy shake, bug-man: https://www.npr.org/

  245. @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success. They will be using it in fact to make flu vaccines more effective. Expect an annual COVID/Flu combo shot.

    If there is a future SARs outbreak they will be able to dial up mRNA vaccines quickly. They really are an amazing technology that "just happen" to come from a Bad White country.

    The anti-vaxx side was wrong and they should just man up and admit it.

    Real men admit when they are wrong and move on. It really should have been over when the hospitals were overloaded with the unvaccinated. That was the time to throw in the towel and not double down on conspiracy theories from AM radio hosts and Doctors with econ degrees.

    I have been part of a losing movement before and I know how it feels. Sucks but you gotta cut your losses and move on.

    The real conspiracy in the West is race denial and not this damn virus that most likely came from China f-king with it.

    Replies: @Dmon, @Mr. Anon, @The Anti-Gnostic, @Thoughts

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn’t even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good.

    https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn’t even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good.

    It's called incidental testing. If you go to the hospital for a broken leg and discover that you have asymptomatic Omicron you are now "hospitalized" according to the statistics.

    It is also a myth that vaccines protect you from getting the virus. This has never been the case for the flu. What the vaccine does is reduce the severity if you do catch the virus which also makes you less likely to pass it since you aren't hacking for two weeks. I assume the myth comes from viruses that have been wiped out like Polio.

    What your stats are also lacking is a breakdown of patients that got the booster.

    When you look at ICU stats for people that got the booster they are practically non-existent. Last I read there are no recorded fatalities either.

    Vaccine protection wanes over time just as it does from natural exposure. I'm not sure why so many Americans are dragging their feet on the booster. Maybe someone here can explain why they got 2 shots but not the booster. If you are going to mutate anyways I don't see the big deal.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic, @Mr Mox

    , @HA
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    "Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good."

    Yeah, sure it doesn't. Why don't you tell us how it looks when those relative numbers are divided through by the number of people in each category, and with the same age groups compared? Maybe something like this?

    Until then, you should know that Berenson already tried playing that exact same flim-flam with the UK stats, and it didn't impress anyone outside the echo chamber back then, either.

    But yeah, I guess Ontario will be enough to really turn things around for you.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic, @That Would Be Telling

  246. @Buzz Mohawk
    Nothing is happening here, 50 miles from JFK, but everybody except my wife and me is wearing a mask in pubic. We even see people wearing masks while they are driving their cars.

    We don't watch or read the same media these people do. The mask thing happened by surprise to us. Suddenly, everybody around us was wearing a mask, starting a few weeks ago. Fortunately, masks are not required in most places, and so we don't wear them. So far, we haven't been sick, and nobody we know has been sick. I mean not sick from anything at all.

    The mask phenomenon is particularly interesting to me, because I witnessed it here, 50 miles from JFK, all of a sudden. Go into Trader Joe's and every yoga pants lady but my wife is wearing a mask. That sort of thing happened immediately when this Omicron BS came.

    It's not even the flu, bro. Apparently it's a cold, another corona virus.

    So, why all the commotion, news stories and government wranglings? Why is everyone around me wearing a mask, while I haven't been sick in years?

    Replies: @clyde, @Corvinus, @John Johnson

    I don’t think that Omicron is BS but I noticed the same thing here in rural America.

    Mask wearing definitely went up recently and I’m getting glares for not wearing one. I even saw people walking outside wearing KN95 masks. This is small town USA that went for Trump.

    Americans just aren’t very good at processing information.

    It’s really too late to try and control Omicron with KN95 masks. That needed to happen about a month ago. I don’t think it would have done much anyways. It might have given the hospitals a little slack but Omicron is highly contagious and KN95 masks have to be worn properly to work. One little gap and you sucked in thousands of Omicron particles.

    Open everything up and fuhgeddaboudit.

  247. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @John Johnson

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn't even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It's not looking good.

    https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

    Replies: @John Johnson, @HA

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn’t even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good.

    It’s called incidental testing. If you go to the hospital for a broken leg and discover that you have asymptomatic Omicron you are now “hospitalized” according to the statistics.

    It is also a myth that vaccines protect you from getting the virus. This has never been the case for the flu. What the vaccine does is reduce the severity if you do catch the virus which also makes you less likely to pass it since you aren’t hacking for two weeks. I assume the myth comes from viruses that have been wiped out like Polio.

    What your stats are also lacking is a breakdown of patients that got the booster.

    When you look at ICU stats for people that got the booster they are practically non-existent. Last I read there are no recorded fatalities either.

    Vaccine protection wanes over time just as it does from natural exposure. I’m not sure why so many Americans are dragging their feet on the booster. Maybe someone here can explain why they got 2 shots but not the booster. If you are going to mutate anyways I don’t see the big deal.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    @John Johnson

    Three shots in one year. Israel is set to give four. That's not a vaccine; that's more like an allergy shot.

    You are not going to get the planet lined up for inoculations every couple of months. Everything you say can be true, and it isn't going to happen.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Mr Mox
    @John Johnson

    It’s called incidental testing. If you go to the hospital for a broken leg and discover that you have asymptomatic Omicron you are now “hospitalized” according to the statistics.

    In Denmark you are screened for Covid if you are admitted to a hospital. Recently we (finally) learned how many Covid patients, hospitalized for something else, who turn out to have Covid.

    It was 25% - one out of four. Not an insignificant number if you ask me,

  248. @Mr. Anon
    @John Johnson


    Doctors are vaccinated at over 95% and they got the vaccine early so if there is a massive zombie mutation (judgement day) we should see it in them first. In fact it will be easily detected since doctor availability is publicly tracked.
     
    The vaccines have killed people - probably many thousands. For many demographic groups, there is a greater chance of death or injury from the vaccines than from COVID. People in that group who took the vaccine and died exchanged an insignificant probability of death from COVID for...............death. That's a crappy bargain. The people who pushed this lunacy should be held to account. People who mandated it should be punished.

    Here in reality the vaccines work and the mRNA technique is a complete success.
     
    The suck at creating immunity - the chief function of a vaccine. The primary and only function really according to the CDC as of August 2021. The COVID vaccines were so bad at creating immunity that the CDC actually changed their definition of what a vaccine does. That is a matter of public record.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    The vaccines have killed people – probably many thousands. For many demographic groups, there is a greater chance of death or injury from the vaccines than from COVID. People in that group who took the vaccine and died exchanged an insignificant probability of death from COVID for……………death. That’s a crappy bargain.

    No vaccine is without risk and that has always been true. With vaccines there is always some 1 in a million case like Guillain-Barre Syndrome. Weirdly enough Jenna Jameson has it. But even that clears up in most cases.

    There are currently thousands of children that are missing a parent because their dad or mom decided to ignore the family doctor and not get the vaccine. They obviously think their parents made a crappy bargain.

    The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people. The goal of herd immunity is to prevent that from happening. I really don’t care if that age group gets vaccinated at this point. They are all getting Omicron anyways. Unlike the anti-vaxx crowd I make decisions from the latest information. Half the anti-vaxx crowd still denies that the vaccines even do anything.

    The suck at creating immunity – the chief function of a vaccine. The primary and only function really according to the CDC as of August 2021. The COVID vaccines were so bad at creating immunity that the CDC actually changed their definition of what a vaccine does. That is a matter of public record.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity. The flu vaccine is less effective and during some years is practically worthless. Is that not a vaccine? What about the tetanus vaccine? Should we not call it a vaccine because you can still get tetanus with symptoms?

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @John Johnson


    The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people.
     
    The problem is demanding - requiring, mandating - that some young people will die so that the old and infirm can cling to life. It's immoral.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity.
     
    It isn't just interesting. It's true.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254111268.html

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @BB753
    @John Johnson

    "The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people."

    Funny, I thought the whole point of a society was to protect the young not the elderly. Not foist upon children experimental drugs they do not need in the first place.

    "The goal of herd immunity is to prevent that from happening"

    Closing schools, lockdowns and vaccines are policies that prevent from reaching natural herd immunity. Before 2019, epidemiology taught that you do not isolate the young and healthy. Unless of course you want to manufacture a pandemic. No strain of SARS CoV-2 has impacted young healthy people. Even with poor treatment and suppression of effective medicines early on, and no fancy vaccines very few people under 50 died from covid.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Mike Tre
    @John Johnson

    "The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people."

    Fake white Hindu troll advocates needless injection for demographic proven to be invulnerable to the already unremarkable virus.

    Shocking.

    Replies: @HA, @John Johnson

  249. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I can do numbers just fine and I have the SAT score (on the old SAT when it was still hard) to prove it.

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn't seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @John Johnson, @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross, @JMcG

    New York is where they sent that USN Hospital Ship to handle the patient load. It left a few weeks later, completely unused. I think they also built tent hospitals that weren’t used at all. https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/30/hospital-ship-comfort-departs-nyc-having-treated-fewer-than-200-patients/

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @JMcG

    That's true - Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    In case you haven't noticed, we have a highly dysfunctional government. If we can spend a trillion $ on a war to no effect, they we can surely spend a few billion on unused hospitals.

    Replies: @prosa123, @John Johnson, @That Would Be Telling

  250. @Brutusale
    @ganderson

    Yeah, I was scheduled to have my hip done next week. I sent an email to Sorry Charlie's office wishing he could feel ONE day of the pain I'm feeling and still tell me that the surgery is "elective".

    Replies: @Ganderson

    Sorry to hear that. My hand can wait, but I had scheduled it so as not to miss golf – now I’ll miss about a month. I know, first world problem, but it’s not necessary. I now drive a half hour to the gym rather than 5 minutes to avoid the mask mandate.
    I’m a retired HS teacher, and I’m ashamed of the behavior of many of my fellow teachers, who wish to hide under their beds.

  251. @anon
    @HA

    It's so important to you that you'd copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies? How much are you paid?

    Replies: @Corvinus, @HA

    “It’s so important to you that you’d copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies?”

    For years now, I’ve been hearing on this site how great it’d be if we had a government that did for their people what Israel and Netanyahu did for theirs. Or maybe Putin. And with COVID, and that so called “Trump vaccine” that Kamala warned us all about, you finally got a government that tried to do exactly that.

    Were you happy? No, you were even more ticked off, and started whining about how you wished we could be more like Sweden. Seriously — Sweden! And you think anyone is ever going to take you seriously?

    Maybe if people like you could put together a narrative that you actually believed in, to the extent that when it finally went your way, you wouldn’t start throwing tantrums like bratty six-year-olds and start blaming SAILER, of all people, for getting it wrong, maybe at least some of what the alt-right is saying would start to get taken seriously (given that there are plenty of people on the left who are as obsessed with the Jews as some of you seem to be). But until you’re able to do that, don’t complain about the so-called MSM lies if you won’t even buy into your own talking points.

    And when it comes to finding out — after all these months of hearing about the “clot-shot” and the massive myocarditis die-off that the anti-vaxxers are eagerly anticipating (any day now, mind you) — that actually, COVID is more likely to give you clots than the vaccine, so that the anti-vaxxers are going to be the front wave of any such die-off, well, that’s just comedy gold, and worth doing for free.

    • Replies: @Dmon
    @HA

    I wouldn't start doing the touchdown dance for the Israeli covid response just yet. Even the EU is starting to spread a little Plausible Deniability dust around.
    "The European Union’s vaccine regulatory agency warned that repeated use of COVID vaccine boosters could impair the booster recipient’s immune response, potentially “overloading” the immune system."
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/320443

    Replies: @HA

    , @anon
    @HA

    Excuse me, you keep repeating the word COVID. Can you please explain what you're talking about? Is there a COVID virus that's been isolated? Is this the one you're talking about when you say that COVID is more likely to give you clots than the vaccine? Can you show me the data?

    Replies: @HA

  252. @J.Ross
    OT Texas Synagogue
    The ADL is there to hector harried cops about the Pyramid of Hate!
    Good thing the DoJ took the focus off Muslims and poured more resources into white supremacist --

    Aafia Siddiqui is a Pakistani neuroscientist with degrees from MIT and Brandeis University who was convicted of multiple felonies. She is serving an 86-year sentence at the Federal Medical Center, Carswell in Fort Worth, Texas, US.
     
    -- attacker is allegedly brother --
    I guess we're gonna find out how well the progressive stack self-updates.

    Siddiqui was a Third World success story until she was named by one of those two or three rotating Al Qaeda top guys (who probably aren't real) and became the only woman on the bad guy list. She's in prison forever because she demonstrated standard Afghan green on blue marksmanship with a rifle -- this is our government's version of events -- our guy more or less put in her hands. Given the professionalism and standards of Arbusto terror prosecutions she could be totally innocent. Muslims predictably feel very angry about her case, but then they're always angry.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Alden

    I have no idea what an “Arbusto terror prosecution” is but Siddiqui received a standard American trial in a standard American courtroom in the US , with witnesses and defense counsel and the full protections of the US Constitution and law. Her lawyers disputed some of the facts and she testified in her own defense (she just dug her hole deeper but never mind) but the jury believed the prosecution witnesses more. The trial lasted 14 days with the jury deliberating for three days before reaching a verdict.

    She has had the opportunity to appeal and all of the opportunities to seek justice that Daniel Pearl did not receive, that James Foley did not receive, that Steven Sotloff did not receive, that she herself would never have extended if the situation was reversed, and all of her convictions have been upheld after repeated review. Her family and supporters have tried to blow smoke and invented all sorts of fantastic lies but none of them will get her out of the jail cell in which she is serving her lawfully imposed sentence. Nor is this Pakistan where she will be traded for hostages -that’s not going to work either. The BoP will release her on 7 May 2082, that is assuming she lives to the age of 110.

    After jurors found Siddiqui guilty, she exclaimed: “This is a verdict coming from Israel, not America. That’s where the anger belongs.” (Sounds like she would be right at home here with some of the folks on Unz.)

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Jack D


    After jurors found Siddiqui guilty, she exclaimed: “This is a verdict coming from Israel, not America. That’s where the anger belongs.” (Sounds like she would be right at home here with some of the folks on Unz.)
     
    It is indeed true that Israel is the source of the conflict.

    Replies: @Jack D

  253. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @John Johnson

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn't even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It's not looking good.

    https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

    Replies: @John Johnson, @HA

    “Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good.”

    Yeah, sure it doesn’t. Why don’t you tell us how it looks when those relative numbers are divided through by the number of people in each category, and with the same age groups compared? Maybe something like this?

    Until then, you should know that Berenson already tried playing that exact same flim-flam with the UK stats, and it didn’t impress anyone outside the echo chamber back then, either.

    But yeah, I guess Ontario will be enough to really turn things around for you.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    @HA

    Now granulate for co-morbidity.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/cdc-director-admits-over-75-of-covid-deaths-in-people-with-at-least-4-comorbidities

    IOW, if you're old, fat or otherwise immuno-compromised, you still have the same level of risk of severe illness. The vaccine does not help you because you're already in terminal decline. And if you're young and healthy, the risk of severe disease remains vanishingly small. It's reasoning from a complete counter-factual to say, for example, that if slim, healthy, COVID-infected Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hadn't gotten the vaccine she'd be dead right now.

    I'm not getting your useless quarterly jab, and neither is the majority of the planet.

    Replies: @HA, @That Would Be Telling

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @HA

    Beside extrapolating from anecdotes to populations, is this the most innumerate thing anti-vaxxers have done?

    Everyone sane admits starting with variants following classic Wuhan these first generation vaccines that target classic Wuhan aren't sterilizing, and one jab of Janssen was never intended to be sterilizing (just the best single jab), so we expect hospitalizations in the vaccinated just as we expect them from those with only natural immunity to a prior variant. So it matters how much of the population in question has been vaccinated or not for the denominators, what as you note you must divide the top line numerators of cases, hospitalizations and deaths by. Did these people forget their grade school math??

    Anyone who hasn't can look here for the raw data, and here you can find the total population of any province, it's estimated to be 14,915,270 for Ontario for the 3rd quarter 2021.

    Replies: @Jack D

  254. @HA
    @anon

    "It’s so important to you that you’d copy and paste the same wave of MSM lies?"

    For years now, I've been hearing on this site how great it'd be if we had a government that did for their people what Israel and Netanyahu did for theirs. Or maybe Putin. And with COVID, and that so called "Trump vaccine" that Kamala warned us all about, you finally got a government that tried to do exactly that.

    Were you happy? No, you were even more ticked off, and started whining about how you wished we could be more like Sweden. Seriously -- Sweden! And you think anyone is ever going to take you seriously?

    Maybe if people like you could put together a narrative that you actually believed in, to the extent that when it finally went your way, you wouldn't start throwing tantrums like bratty six-year-olds and start blaming SAILER, of all people, for getting it wrong, maybe at least some of what the alt-right is saying would start to get taken seriously (given that there are plenty of people on the left who are as obsessed with the Jews as some of you seem to be). But until you're able to do that, don't complain about the so-called MSM lies if you won't even buy into your own talking points.

    And when it comes to finding out -- after all these months of hearing about the "clot-shot" and the massive myocarditis die-off that the anti-vaxxers are eagerly anticipating (any day now, mind you) -- that actually, COVID is more likely to give you clots than the vaccine, so that the anti-vaxxers are going to be the front wave of any such die-off, well, that's just comedy gold, and worth doing for free.

    Replies: @Dmon, @anon

    I wouldn’t start doing the touchdown dance for the Israeli covid response just yet. Even the EU is starting to spread a little Plausible Deniability dust around.
    “The European Union’s vaccine regulatory agency warned that repeated use of COVID vaccine boosters could impair the booster recipient’s immune response, potentially “overloading” the immune system.”
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/320443

    • Replies: @HA
    @Dmon

    “The European Union’s vaccine regulatory agency warned that repeated use of COVID vaccine boosters could impair the booster recipient’s immune response, potentially “overloading” the immune system.”

    There have been similar warnings in Israel itself for quite some time, so you don't need to go to the European Union to find them. There's always risks in any health measure, and some invocations of the law of unintended consequences, and eventually, the anti-vaxxers will undoubtedly win a few of their long shots, however incapable they seem to be of catching a break this time around. I get that.

    And maybe that means they'll skip the next vaccine, or delay it a few months, or better yet, realize that COVID has gone the way of SARS and is no longer a threat. The point is, they seem to be on top of it, and yet, even when the people here get a helping of something similar, exactly like what they say they've been wishing for, it's still not enough to satisfy them. Which leads me to the inescapable conclusion that the tantrum thowers are just love-to-lose sad sacks more interested in their Chicken Little woe-is-me whining and moaning than actually getting anything done, like a bunch of bitter geezers that a fair number of them seem to be.

  255. @JMcG
    @Jack D

    New York is where they sent that USN Hospital Ship to handle the patient load. It left a few weeks later, completely unused. I think they also built tent hospitals that weren’t used at all. https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/30/hospital-ship-comfort-departs-nyc-having-treated-fewer-than-200-patients/

    Replies: @Jack D

    That’s true – Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    In case you haven’t noticed, we have a highly dysfunctional government. If we can spend a trillion \$ on a war to no effect, they we can surely spend a few billion on unused hospitals.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Jack D

    Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    I hate Cuomo, but I don't necessarily disagree with that decision. Covid deaths in nursing homes frequently were a matter of the Angel of Mercy bestowing her blessings of relief. Especially for patients in the euphemistically monikered "memory care" units.

    , @John Johnson
    @Jack D

    That’s true – Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    Oh it was worse than that.

    He actually sent infected patients from hospitals to nursing homes that didn't have any cases. The press was enamored with him at the time (pre-grab ass) and let it slide.

    Your theory of the budget could indeed be the reason. These *cough* diversity enhanced areas have more people on the state budget. He is probably keenly aware of the costs and perhaps did some quick calculations.

    In case you haven’t noticed, we have a highly dysfunctional government. If we can spend a trillion $ on a war to no effect, they we can surely spend a few billion on unused hospitals.

    He was right to call for more beds based on model projections from Italy but I think what happened is that it killed more people early on than they were expecting.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D

    This is something the two of us have discussed previously, with your coming down on the side of "it wasn't for the budget."

    My factual inputs are that Medicaid is the last resort payer for indigent nursing home residents, and Cuomo's budget was unexpectedly busted in the fall of 2019 by six billion, two thirds of that Medicaid. By now we've seen a lot malevolence from him including vaccination policies; I'll agree absent a confession we won't know, but I'm still convinced this was the primary motive, although as John Johnson noted in his reply, New York was working on poor data which prompted them to go to extremes to maintain reserve beds.

    Although in the case of the hospital ship, they're designed for trauma cases and the usual field diseases in relatively young people, not pandemics with an extremely contagious (novel) pathogen. It should have been sent people with injuries and non-communicable diseases it and its staff were prepared to handle to free up on-shore beds, instead was pretty early on sent active COVID patients, likely contaminating it and maybe its staff.

    Cuomo and company were very incompetent in fulfilling their own stated objectives, also managed the own goal of getting quite a few doses of vaccines thrown out because of credible penalties if not administered in the demanded precise priority from their last minute complete change of plans.

    I'll add that four other Blue governors did the same, New Jersey achieved an even higher per capita death rate early on, and the thing from Pennsylvania made sure to move its mother out of her long term care facility in the state before the policy went into effects.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  256. @John Johnson
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    The vaccines are laughably bad. Formerly, they wouldn’t even have qualified as vaccines.

    Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good.

    It's called incidental testing. If you go to the hospital for a broken leg and discover that you have asymptomatic Omicron you are now "hospitalized" according to the statistics.

    It is also a myth that vaccines protect you from getting the virus. This has never been the case for the flu. What the vaccine does is reduce the severity if you do catch the virus which also makes you less likely to pass it since you aren't hacking for two weeks. I assume the myth comes from viruses that have been wiped out like Polio.

    What your stats are also lacking is a breakdown of patients that got the booster.

    When you look at ICU stats for people that got the booster they are practically non-existent. Last I read there are no recorded fatalities either.

    Vaccine protection wanes over time just as it does from natural exposure. I'm not sure why so many Americans are dragging their feet on the booster. Maybe someone here can explain why they got 2 shots but not the booster. If you are going to mutate anyways I don't see the big deal.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic, @Mr Mox

    Three shots in one year. Israel is set to give four. That’s not a vaccine; that’s more like an allergy shot.

    You are not going to get the planet lined up for inoculations every couple of months. Everything you say can be true, and it isn’t going to happen.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    Three shots in one year. Israel is set to give four. That’s not a vaccine; that’s more like an allergy shot.

    Four to vulnerable populations. If you got two then it makes sense to get three for Omicron.

    That position is well based in data. It doesn't make sense to get two and then quit just as it doesn't make sense to assume that previous exposure will give endless protection.

    You are not going to get the planet lined up for inoculations every couple of months. Everything you say can be true, and it isn’t going to happen.

    Herd immunity was obviously not going to happen through the vaccine which is why Omicron is a break for everyone.

    Anti-vaxxers can cough this one out for a few weeks if they want.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  257. @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    The vaccines have killed people – probably many thousands. For many demographic groups, there is a greater chance of death or injury from the vaccines than from COVID. People in that group who took the vaccine and died exchanged an insignificant probability of death from COVID for……………death. That’s a crappy bargain.

    No vaccine is without risk and that has always been true. With vaccines there is always some 1 in a million case like Guillain-Barre Syndrome. Weirdly enough Jenna Jameson has it. But even that clears up in most cases.

    There are currently thousands of children that are missing a parent because their dad or mom decided to ignore the family doctor and not get the vaccine. They obviously think their parents made a crappy bargain.

    The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people. The goal of herd immunity is to prevent that from happening. I really don't care if that age group gets vaccinated at this point. They are all getting Omicron anyways. Unlike the anti-vaxx crowd I make decisions from the latest information. Half the anti-vaxx crowd still denies that the vaccines even do anything.

    The suck at creating immunity – the chief function of a vaccine. The primary and only function really according to the CDC as of August 2021. The COVID vaccines were so bad at creating immunity that the CDC actually changed their definition of what a vaccine does. That is a matter of public record.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity. The flu vaccine is less effective and during some years is practically worthless. Is that not a vaccine? What about the tetanus vaccine? Should we not call it a vaccine because you can still get tetanus with symptoms?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @BB753, @Mike Tre

    The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people.

    The problem is demanding – requiring, mandating – that some young people will die so that the old and infirm can cling to life. It’s immoral.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity.

    It isn’t just interesting. It’s true.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254111268.html

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    The problem is demanding – requiring, mandating – that some young people will die so that the old and infirm can cling to life. It’s immoral.

    Vaccination risk is a complex subject and so far there is no evidence that the COVID vaccine is riskier for children than the flu or hpv vaccine.

    In the case of COVID we have young people without parents because of the anti-vaxx movement. That is what is immoral and a much bigger problem. 45 year olds talked into refusing the vaccine because of what they read on facebook. Under 20s still have a low vaccination rate.

    The anti-vaxx crowd never took the position that vaccines should be taken based on individual risk. The constant message has been that they are poison and don't work. I would have more respect for them if they took a more nuanced position where under 30 or 20 should be excluded from mandates. We have thousands of 40-60 year olds that will be on disability thanks to the anti-vaxx crowd.


    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity.
     
    It isn’t just interesting. It’s true.

    Well here is a similar definition from 2014:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4257027/

    I don't base my opinions on what the CDC does or states. It was the CDC that dragged their feet on admitting that the virus was airborne. That was not making any sense but they didn't want to admit to being wrong. There was plenty of evidence of asymptomatic spread and they were sticking to the theory that you have to sneeze or cough to pass it.

    In case you hadn't noticed most departments in DC have a history of mediocrity. My assumption is Affirmative Action but I really don't care.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Justvisiting

  258. @HA
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    "Ontario has begun tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status. It’s not looking good."

    Yeah, sure it doesn't. Why don't you tell us how it looks when those relative numbers are divided through by the number of people in each category, and with the same age groups compared? Maybe something like this?

    Until then, you should know that Berenson already tried playing that exact same flim-flam with the UK stats, and it didn't impress anyone outside the echo chamber back then, either.

    But yeah, I guess Ontario will be enough to really turn things around for you.

    Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic, @That Would Be Telling

    Now granulate for co-morbidity.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/cdc-director-admits-over-75-of-covid-deaths-in-people-with-at-least-4-comorbidities

    IOW, if you’re old, fat or otherwise immuno-compromised, you still have the same level of risk of severe illness. The vaccine does not help you because you’re already in terminal decline. And if you’re young and healthy, the risk of severe disease remains vanishingly small. It’s reasoning from a complete counter-factual to say, for example, that if slim, healthy, COVID-infected Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hadn’t gotten the vaccine she’d be dead right now.

    I’m not getting your useless quarterly jab, and neither is the majority of the planet.

    • Replies: @HA
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    "The vaccine does not help you because you’re already in terminal decline."

    No, the stats say that IF you're already in terminal decline, THEN it won't help you. I.e., if you're Colin Powell and suffering from advanced cancer and who knows what else, then even the vaccine can't save you in that case. No one is claiming that it's water from the fountain of youth in those syringes.

    "And if you’re young and healthy, the risk of severe disease remains vanishingly small."

    There are a lot of gray-area cases in between the 4-comorbidities-Colin-Powell-stage and "young and healthy". Hundreds of thousands in this country alone if the last couple of months are any guide, and they're more than enough to overflow some ICUs, and therein lies the problem. I ordinarily wouldn't care whether you get jabbed or not. But if you're going to be like all the other lions who get zipped off to the ER by saner relatives once you start breathing less like lions and more like overheated French bulldogs, thereby clogging up spaces for people less eager to win themselves a Herman Cain award, then getting called out for being a fool is something you ought to get used to. As if that lame attempt at a gotcha-game weren't reason enough for you to be ridiculed.

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @The Anti-Gnostic

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/cdc-director-admits-over-75-of-covid-deaths-in-people-with-at-least-4-comorbidities is answered by https://www.unz.com/isteve/is-omicron-just-the-flu-bro/#comment-5120086

    Or just read the update in your fine article, the Daily Wire had enough self-respect to make the needed correction.

  259. @That Would Be Telling
    @ic1000

    Thanks! We vaccinated people continue to not drop dead on the predicted schedules of the anti-vaxxers, and they just get less attached to the truth and more desperate and vitriolic.

    And we still see plenty of total COVID truthers (something else killed a million Americans, or that's also a lie, these loners should get out more), and Floomers which prosa123 comes a bit close to who for example jumped on ABC's editing of the CDC director's January 7th comments on a study of vaccinated outcomes, which ended with the statistic that of those who died 75% had at least four comorbidities. ABC quietly updated the clip, see here at ~2:45, Good Morning America is not about to admit the removed section had too much math!!! for journalists and TV talking heads to understand.

    You are of course right about the evolutionary path of variants, not a law but to quote Derek "Things I Won't Work With" Lowe, "It’s not the job of a virus to make people deathly ill: it’s the job of a virus to make more virus." And both greater transmissibility which is obvious, and less lethality and immediate morbidity so people will be around more other people longer to transmit it are aligned with that "job." As 1918-9 indeed showed that's not written in stone but it's something we can reasonably hope for. Now for some more specific replies, nits, etc.:


    A critical factor is the state of people’s immune systems prior to first exposure. Here, the future is not unwritten. SARS-CoV-2 (like the SARS and MERS viruses) was sufficiently different from the four endemic coronaviruses (which cause 20% of colds) that it was new to everybody’s adaptive immune system.
     
    In addition to the variables you outlined for outcomes, I've come across a paper which says about 20% of us appear to have had a degree of immunity to a part of all coronaviruses which is extremely conserved (can't change (much) or "the virus won't virus"), we presume from previous exposures to those human endemic strains. This is inside the cell machinery so is not as attractive a target as the spike protein, "neutralizing" antibodies against those can entirely prevent a virus from hijacking a cell, this prior immunity plus for example immunity targeting the N for nucleocapsid protein can only work against already hijacked cells.

    Hypnotoad666 is not correct about "a harmless endemic cold," the four previous endemic human coronaviruses were associated with statistically worse outcomes than most other viruses that cause "the common cold," and slumber_j is right about how the seasonal flu can hit you like a ton of bricks (my characterization about the one time I'm pretty sure I got it), but on the other hand flu also a fair fraction of cases of "the common cold" when it's milder.

    And we aren't, can't yet know the long term morbidity of Omicron. We can reasonably hope it's less than classic Wuhan through Delta, especially in those who had natural and/or vaccine immunity, but we can only learn this a day at a time. For 2020 long term morbidity was statistically grim, including 8% of the people in that study of Veterans Administration data so weighed older, who did not require hospitalization and survived thirty days then dying above the expected baseline within six months. On a theoretical basis some people I follow including I now see Rob are concerned; I'm continuing my own personal attempt at a Zero COVID defense in depth including N95 masking.

    In the non-developed world, previously acquired natural immunity is also going to be protecting a lot of people. Of course I agree on the policial response aside from Operation Warp Speed which also targeted therapeutics, it's now dismantled and thus I assume one reason "Biden" turned down the concept of a Maximum Effort to mass produce quick test strips, and now is sort of getting serious about it in the usual government rationing approach, Harry Baldwin covers this well.

    It's also amazing to see how long it took any Congressmen or others at the national level to start talking about moving to serious N95 grade masks, in the last week!; they really only care about the politics. That's unforgivable, especially when a moderate amount of money would have allowed us to massively increase our capacity to make the special material required for them as well as the final product in the couple of years when this was ignored by our betters.

    "repeat-boosts-for-everyone extremists" Yeah, that's not currently indicated, especially if Omicron and future variants have much less mortality and morbidity.

    One idea behind this as I understand it is to maintain large fleets of antibodies in the blood ready to immediately pounce on a new exposure. Another which I'm sure our ruling trash are not thinking about is the observations from Rockefeller U. that memory B-cell refinement from an infection goes on for at least six months, but only three weeks from a first prime-boost or maybe just prime for Janssen vaccination (that's preparation for making the next and New and Improved antibody fleet). Researchers will have more on the results of additional boost doses now or later, but for now I'm assuming additional vaccine doses will prompt more memory B-cell refinement. Not sure what happens with cellular part of the adaptive immune system, the whole set of three is very complicated.

    Replies: @Peterike, @onetwothree, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @obwandiyag, @Jimbo, @Hypnotoad666, @Mike Tre

    Shut the fuck up, Donny.

  260. @LondonBob
    It isn't even close to the flu.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/13/finnish-epidemiologist-the-ifr-of-the-omicron-variant-is-0-04-about-half-that-of-seasonal-flu/

    It has a ridiculously high R number of above ten, so you will get it, as most of the people I know in London have, fortunately it is just a sore throat.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Triteleia Laxa, @slumber_j, @Jack D, @S. Anonyia, @obwandiyag, @Right_On

    I had a cold a month back. Felt a bit sleepy, sore throat and runny nose. So mild you wouldn’t have bothered taking a day off work. So I was intrigued by a survey revealing that 75% of people reporting those identical symptoms – who’d assumed they just had a cold – actually had the new Omicron variant of Covid. It’s therefore more than likely I had the same virus.

    I can’t be sure as I’ve never had myself tested. The thought of foreign objects being shoved into my orifices and scraped around turns my stomach.

    ‘Lateral flow test’ sounds like a schoolboys’ pissing competition to see who can urinate the greatest distance.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Right_On


    The thought of foreign objects being shoved into my orifices and scraped around turns my stomach.
     
    But, but, it's for SCIENCE!!!

    Seriously, if that meme resonates for you you might ask your public health department on Facebook if they'd like you to use up a test if you think you've got a mild case of Omicron and report the result to them. Otherwise it's best to reserve them for healthcare contexts and the like where differential diagnosis will help confirm if they need to isolate you.

    ‘Lateral flow test’ sounds like a schoolboys’ pissing competition to see who can urinate the greatest distance.
     
    It does have a subpar name, but it's really cool technology, uses antibodies and gold to provide a quick although not as sensitive test as something like RT-PCR.
  261. @El Dato
    High levels of realism:

    Russia shelves plans for nationwide vaccine passports: Officials say the proposed legislation is not suited to the current coronavirus situation

    Russian lawmakers have postponed consideration of a bill that would introduce a nationwide system of QR-code vaccine passes, saying that the law needs to be adapted to deal with the new Omicron variant of Covid-19.

    Tatyana Golikova, the deputy prime minister for social policy, labor, health and pension provision, told journalists on Friday that government officials, together with leaders of ruling party United Russia, had decided the proposed legislation would need to be adjusted before it could be considered further. Originally, the law aimed to consolidate policies across different local governments, many of which require proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, bars, clubs, and mass events.

    “Considering the many unknowns about the development of the epidemiological situation, the government and the United Russia party made a mutual decision to postpone the second reading of the bill,” Golikova stated.

    Andrey Turchak, secretary-general of the General Council of United Russia, clarified that the current legislation was formulated last year mainly as a response to the Delta variant, and that it needed to be revised in light of more recent developments. “United Russia looked at the details of the situation, and believes that the only correct course is to defer consideration of the bill,” he said.
     

    Replies: @JimDandy

    Meanwhile, here in America, the Democrats are even more dangerously delusional than I thought:

    “Rasmussen next asked if people favor home confinement for those who are not vaccinated. On the GOP side, 79% were opposed, while 59% of Democrats favored it.

    The survey also asked about those who challenge the government’s view of vaccines and if opponents should be jailed or fined for questioning it on social media. A remarkable 48% of Democrats supported those punishments.

    And nearly half of Democrats favored fixing tracking devices on those who refused to vaccinate.”

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @JimDandy

    Thanks for the info, Mr. Dandy.
    This charade has clearly gone too far...
    What is it about "vaccines" that bring out so many people's inner totalitarian?

    Replies: @JimDandy, @DCThrowback

  262. @Mr. Anon
    @John Johnson


    The problem with letting under 20s go without the vaccine is that it makes it easier for them to pass it onto other people.
     
    The problem is demanding - requiring, mandating - that some young people will die so that the old and infirm can cling to life. It's immoral.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity.
     
    It isn't just interesting. It's true.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254111268.html

    Replies: @John Johnson

    The problem is demanding – requiring, mandating – that some young people will die so that the old and infirm can cling to life. It’s immoral.

    Vaccination risk is a complex subject and so far there is no evidence that the COVID vaccine is riskier for children than the flu or hpv vaccine.

    In the case of COVID we have young people without parents because of the anti-vaxx movement. That is what is immoral and a much bigger problem. 45 year olds talked into refusing the vaccine because of what they read on facebook. Under 20s still have a low vaccination rate.

    The anti-vaxx crowd never took the position that vaccines should be taken based on individual risk. The constant message has been that they are poison and don’t work. I would have more respect for them if they took a more nuanced position where under 30 or 20 should be excluded from mandates. We have thousands of 40-60 year olds that will be on disability thanks to the anti-vaxx crowd.

    Interesting accusation but I can probably dig up a college biology book and I doubt the definition means 100% protection from catching the virus if that is what you mean by immunity.

    It isn’t just interesting. It’s true.

    Well here is a similar definition from 2014:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4257027/

    I don’t base my opinions on what the CDC does or states. It was the CDC that dragged their feet on admitting that the virus was airborne. That was not making any sense but they didn’t want to admit to being wrong. There was plenty of evidence of asymptomatic spread and they were sticking to the theory that you have to sneeze or cough to pass it.

    In case you hadn’t noticed most departments in DC have a history of mediocrity. My assumption is Affirmative Action but I really don’t care.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @John Johnson


    Vaccination risk is a complex subject and so far there is no evidence that the COVID vaccine is riskier for children than the flu or hpv vaccine.
     
    There is no evidence that COVID is riskier for children than the Flu. Actually, it appears to be less so.

    In the case of COVID we have young people without parents because of the anti-vaxx movement. That is what is immoral and a much bigger problem.
     
    You are simply ignoring the fact that there are parents with dead children because of the vaccines. An increasing number of them too.

    The anti-vaxx crowd never took the position that vaccines should be taken based on individual risk. The constant message has been that they are poison and don’t work. I would have more respect for them if they took a more nuanced position where under 30 or 20 should be excluded from mandates. We have thousands of 40-60 year olds that will be on disability thanks to the anti-vaxx crowd.
     
    This is a strawman argument because EVERYBODY who opposes vaccine mandates is now routinely labeled "anti-vax". I am not anti-vax. I am anti vax-mandate. And I am suspicious of the need to trial run a whole new vaccine technology - never before used on people - on..............every single person on Earth (which is what they want). But that distinction doesn't matter to a lot of people, including you apparently.

    Well here is a similar definition from 2014:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4257027/
     
    That's a paper. It's not official government policy. What the CDC says is policy.

    I don’t base my opinions on what the CDC does or states.
     
    Nice deflection. Oh, now they're not important. What they say is obviously important to a lot of people, like the millions who hang on their every pronouncement. They set the governments official guidelines. What they say is important. If they lie - that's important. It doesn't matter if you (all of a sudden, conveniently) don't care what they think.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Justvisiting
    @John Johnson


    The anti-vaxx crowd never took the position that vaccines should be taken based on individual risk.
     
    I am a hard-core anti-vaxxer by any definition (refused to take the flu vaccine for years) for many reasons.

    But--one of those reasons is that doctors that tell everyone to get the vaccine regardless of their medical history and status are dangerous quacks.

    When dangerous quacks say "do this" I will always do the opposite.
  263. @Jack D
    @JMcG

    That's true - Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    In case you haven't noticed, we have a highly dysfunctional government. If we can spend a trillion $ on a war to no effect, they we can surely spend a few billion on unused hospitals.

    Replies: @prosa123, @John Johnson, @That Would Be Telling

    Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    I hate Cuomo, but I don’t necessarily disagree with that decision. Covid deaths in nursing homes frequently were a matter of the Angel of Mercy bestowing her blessings of relief. Especially for patients in the euphemistically monikered “memory care” units.

  264. @John Johnson
    @Jack D

    80 people out of every 100,000 hospitalized for Covid doesn’t seem like a lot until you remember that NYC has over 8 million people. Now think of 6,500 hospital beds. If every bed is 7 ft. long, if you put them from end to end it would be a line of beds 9 miles long stretching from Battery Park to Harlem.

    But that would only happen if they got Omicron at the same time.

    Fortunately the average hospital stay for Omicron is only 3 days which is 70% less than Delta. But more importantly we aren't seeing unvaccinated on ventilators for weeks which is really what was taking up beds. NYC is already on the downslope of their curve.

    New York hospitals are having more problems with staffing. What happens is that an asymptomatic nurse gets a positive test but still has to quarantine. It's the Omicron staycation. Honestly the testing in most cases is rather pointless. If you have a sore throat right now it is probably Omicron. Anyone that works in medicine is going to get it. No point in keeping a nurse home that only has a sore throat and no cough.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Achmed E. Newman

    The nurse in our family told me that she and her colleagues were told not to get tested for COVID. Getting a positive result causes a lot of problems.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Achmed E. Newman


    The nurse in our family told me that she and her colleagues were told not to get tested for COVID. Getting a positive result causes a lot of problems.
     
    Many hospitals are now telling their staff to come to work even if they have positive COVID tests. Many of these hospitals are those that fired staff for not getting vaccinated.

    So you can't be unvaccinated and treat patients, even if you are SARS-COV-2 negative. But you can treat patients if you are SARS-COV-2 positive, as long as you are vaccinated.

    This is what is now called "The Science".

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @JR Ewing
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This has been the case all along.

    Unless there is some reason you are required to get a test - employment, NBA superstar - DON’T GET A TEST!

    The only people who should be tested are those who are sick enough to require medical care.

    These people getting tested for its own sake (“I just want to know if I have it”) are unwittingly prolonging the panic and making their own lives miserable due to the inevitable consequences of their curiosity.

    This current fetishization of testing as if it is a meaningful control strategy at this stage of the pandemic makes no sense. It just makes things worse at the individual level.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  265. @Dmon
    @HA

    I wouldn't start doing the touchdown dance for the Israeli covid response just yet. Even the EU is starting to spread a little Plausible Deniability dust around.
    "The European Union’s vaccine regulatory agency warned that repeated use of COVID vaccine boosters could impair the booster recipient’s immune response, potentially “overloading” the immune system."
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/320443

    Replies: @HA

    “The European Union’s vaccine regulatory agency warned that repeated use of COVID vaccine boosters could impair the booster recipient’s immune response, potentially “overloading” the immune system.”

    There have been similar warnings in Israel itself for quite some time, so you don’t need to go to the European Union to find them. There’s always risks in any health measure, and some invocations of the law of unintended consequences, and eventually, the anti-vaxxers will undoubtedly win a few of their long shots, however incapable they seem to be of catching a break this time around. I get that.

    And maybe that means they’ll skip the next vaccine, or delay it a few months, or better yet, realize that COVID has gone the way of SARS and is no longer a threat. The point is, they seem to be on top of it, and yet, even when the people here get a helping of something similar, exactly like what they say they’ve been wishing for, it’s still not enough to satisfy them. Which leads me to the inescapable conclusion that the tantrum thowers are just love-to-lose sad sacks more interested in their Chicken Little woe-is-me whining and moaning than actually getting anything done, like a bunch of bitter geezers that a fair number of them seem to be.

  266. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @John Johnson

    Three shots in one year. Israel is set to give four. That's not a vaccine; that's more like an allergy shot.

    You are not going to get the planet lined up for inoculations every couple of months. Everything you say can be true, and it isn't going to happen.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Three shots in one year. Israel is set to give four. That’s not a vaccine; that’s more like an allergy shot.

    Four to vulnerable populations. If you got two then it makes sense to get three for Omicron.

    That position is well based in data. It doesn’t make sense to get two and then quit just as it doesn’t make sense to assume that previous exposure will give endless protection.

    You are not going to get the planet lined up for inoculations every couple of months. Everything you say can be true, and it isn’t going to happen.

    Herd immunity was obviously not going to happen through the vaccine which is why Omicron is a break for everyone.

    Anti-vaxxers can cough this one out for a few weeks if they want.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @John Johnson

    The Anti-Gnostic is also studiously ignorant of how schedules for many existing vaccines include three doses within one year, how we didn't have the luxury of figuring out optimal dosing schedules, or how schedules in the middle of a pandemic might be different than for endemic but low prevalence pathogens. So for example existing schedules that space out prime and first boost dose by two months don't make sense in terms of giving people the highest immunity as quickly as possible (Janssen, and only when the boost dose is Janssen is two months based on their second Phase III trial, the likely explanation being waiting for the body's immune system responses to the virus vector to wane, a known problem with this approach).

    So look at for example this WHO collection of many nations' vaccination schedules and see for example 2-4-6 month examples. See also for example how Pfizer's vaccine doesn't appear to develop good cellular immunity until after the second dose.

  267. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "It’s about living like a human and not a lab rat."

    I'm pretty sure that lab rats spend a good deal of their time terrified about the next shot they're gonna have to take, and you think that describes me? Some serious projection you got going there.

    And unlike you, lab rats probably should fear the next shot they're gonna have to take, which makes your terror all the more pathetic. Now THAT is some serious slave mentality.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Again with the “needle fear” bulls**t. Nobody is afraid of needles, you pathetic clown.

    • Agree: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "Nobody is afraid of needles,..."

    Try and save face however you want, little daffodil, your paper trail says otherwise. In the end, you and your crybaby snowflake buddies choose to live in terror of that needle -- oh, sorry, I meant to say that you, by your own admission, choose to live in terror of what's IN the needle. There, is that better? It doesn't change anything, given that you're still cowering in a prison of your making. Now THAT is some serious slave mentality.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Brutusale

  268. @Jack D
    @JMcG

    That's true - Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    In case you haven't noticed, we have a highly dysfunctional government. If we can spend a trillion $ on a war to no effect, they we can surely spend a few billion on unused hospitals.

    Replies: @prosa123, @John Johnson, @That Would Be Telling

    That’s true – Cuomo just sent the patients back to their nursing homes. Maybe he figured that killing the nursing home population would help him to balance the NY budget.

    Oh it was worse than that.

    He actually sent infected patients from hospitals to nursing homes that didn’t have any cases. The press was enamored with him at the time (pre-grab ass) and let it slide.

    Your theory of the budget could indeed be the reason. These *cough* diversity enhanced areas have more people on the state budget. He is probably keenly aware of the costs and perhaps did some quick calculations.

    In case you haven’t noticed, we have a highly dysfunctional government. If we can spend a trillion \$ on a war to no effect, they we can surely spend a few billion on unused hospitals.

    He was right to call for more beds based on model projections from Italy but I think what happened is that it killed more people early on than they were expecting.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @John Johnson

    The likely thing is that Gov. Cuomo was called upon to make a decision in a novel situation and he wound up making the wrong one by prioritizing hospitals over nursing homes.

    The idea that Cuomo is some super genius who no doubt anticipated the outcomes and hence he did what he did for a nefarious purpose is excessively generous toward Cuomo's brilliance.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @John Johnson, @Matthew Kelly

  269. @Achmed E. Newman
    @John Johnson

    The nurse in our family told me that she and her colleagues were told not to get tested for COVID. Getting a positive result causes a lot of problems.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @JR Ewing

    The nurse in our family told me that she and her colleagues were told not to get tested for COVID. Getting a positive result causes a lot of problems.

    Many hospitals are now telling their staff to come to work even if they have positive COVID tests. Many of these hospitals are those that fired staff for not getting vaccinated.

    So you can’t be unvaccinated and treat patients, even if you are SARS-COV-2 negative. But you can treat patients if you are SARS-COV-2 positive, as long as you are vaccinated.

    This is what is now called “The Science”.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. Anon

    Many hospitals are now telling their staff to come to work even if they have positive COVID tests. Many of these hospitals are those that fired staff for not getting vaccinated.

    So you can’t be unvaccinated and treat patients, even if you are SARS-COV-2 negative. But you can treat patients if you are SARS-COV-2 positive, as long as you are vaccinated.

    Well they have pre-Omicron policies in place and a nursing shortage.

    They are telling them to come to work if they are positive but have a mild case.

    Omicron is COVID but has mutated enough to where it requires a different approach.

    The vaccine mandates should be dropped entirely but as always our Federal government is about 2 months behind.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  270. @The Anti-Gnostic
    @HA

    Now granulate for co-morbidity.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/cdc-director-admits-over-75-of-covid-deaths-in-people-with-at-least-4-comorbidities

    IOW, if you're old, fat or otherwise immuno-compromised, you still have the same level of risk of severe illness. The vaccine does not help you because you're already in terminal decline. And if you're young and healthy, the risk of severe disease remains vanishingly small. It's reasoning from a complete counter-factual to say, for example, that if slim, healthy, COVID-infected Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hadn't gotten the vaccine she'd be dead right now.

    I'm not getting your useless quarterly jab, and neither is the majority of the planet.

    Replies: @HA, @That Would Be Telling

    “The vaccine does not help you because you’re already in terminal decline.”

    No, the stats say that IF you’re already in terminal decline, THEN it won’t help you. I.e., if you’re Colin Powell and suffering from advanced cancer and who knows what else, then even the vaccine can’t save you in that case. No one is claiming that it’s water from the fountain of youth in those syringes.