The anger over atrocities in Ukraine is reminiscent of the anger in the U.S. in the 1890s over Spanish atrocities resisting the Cuban independence uprising. Then in 1898 the USS Maine warship blew up in the Havana harbor for reasons that are still argued over. “Remember the Maine! To hell with Spain!” became the rallying cry of the Spanish-American War.
So, it’s worthwhile looking at one well-publicized incident at the present time in detail. From the top of the New York Times website:
Russian soldiers opened fire on a cyclist in Bucha, new video shows.
April 5, 2022, 6:18 p.m.
Malachy Browne and Dmitriy KhavinNew video has emerged that adds to mounting evidence of atrocities carried out while Russia’s military occupied the suburban town of Bucha, northwest of Kyiv.
The video shows a cyclist moving along a street in Bucha, dismounting and walking a bicycle around the corner onto a street occupied by Russian soldiers. As soon as the cyclist rounds the turn, a Russian armored vehicle fires several high-caliber rounds along the thoroughfare.
From 50 to 100 meters away from the poor cyclist.
A second armored vehicle fires two rounds in the direction of the cyclist. A plume of dust and smoke rises from the scene.
The video is aerial footage recorded by Ukraine’s military in late February, when Russian forces still held the town. It has been independently verified by The New York Times.
Weeks later, after Russia withdrew from Bucha, a body in civilian clothes was filmed beside a bicycle in this precise location in a second video verified by The Times.
Presumably, the purpose of giving this single fatality during a massive land war in Europe so much publicity is to debunk claims that maybe the dead bodies in Bucha were collaborators with the Russians executed by Ukrainians. That’s a not unworthy goal. Clearly, this cyclist got annihilated by large caliber Russian arms.
But it also gives us an opportunity to consider more mainstream claims. Was the victim tied up and shot in the head? Is this the second coming of Auschwitz?
Or is it more a case of nervous Russian soldiers with itchy trigger fingers lighting up some poor bastard who scared them by coming around the corner?
I’m reminded of a memorable 2013 incident in Southern California when eight LAPD officers, terrified of Chris Dorner’s one-man-army, shot 107 times at two older ladies delivering newspapers. From CNN:
No charges against cops who wounded women in Dorner manhunt
By Eliott C. McLaughlin, CNN
Updated 8:52 AM EST, Thu January 28, 2016Many factors led police to open fire on women delivering newspapers, DA says
Emma Hernandez was shot in the back and Margie Carranza was injured by broken glass
Ex-officer Christopher Dorner declared war on police after being fired by the LAPD
CNN
—
Eight Los Angeles police officers who collectively fired 107 shots at two women delivering newspapers in a truck that police had mistaken for one belonging to renegade ex-cop Christopher Dorner will not face criminal charges, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office said Wednesday.Among the key findings submitted by the office’s justice system integrity division: Officers were on a heightened state of alert, given Dorner’s previous violence against police and a report that Dorner was in the area; the officers were conducting a security detail “with limited planning or tactical instruction”; the truck that Margie Carranza and her then-71-year-old mother, Emma Hernandez, were driving was similar to Dorner’s; and the sound of the women’s newspapers slapping against driveways resembled gunshots.
At the time of the February 7, 2013, shooting, Dorner had issued a manifesto declaring war on police after exhausting his appeals to be reinstated following his ouster from the Los Angeles Police Department.
He claimed racism was behind his firing and killed four people and wounded three others on his vendetta rampage.
Somehow, the Mexican ladies survived 107 bullets. The L.A. City Council gave them $4.2 million and a new truck, which sounds pretty cheap.
One basic lesson is that all sorts of bad things happen during wars.
Wars are bad.
Borders are good.
The SS knew what they were doing. They did not leave bodies lying around. Line em up and shoot them, then fill the ditch. Still people could see what was taking place or hear the gunfire. When they got more organized they built camps out of sight of the locals where the killings could take place without gunfire or witnesses.
Russia’s got a big problem since the murders seem to have happened when these towns were under Russian occupation. Not likely Ukrainian death squads could be roaming around selecting collaborators for execution when the Russian Army owns the streets.
And if it was 100% true it's still nothing but a disgusting war manipulation like the horror stories about Belgium or the Kuwaiti incubators.Replies: @Hypnotoad666
First, the Jews were extremely loved by everyone else, so there was a chance that the whole Polish village, or Ukrainian village, or Romanian village, would rise up in defense of their beloved Jews.
Second, the SS were extremely concerned with erasing any evidence that would lead to them. Like the whole German people, the SS was working on the premise that, any time soon, they will be defeated and judged by international tribunals. The Germans wouldn't even start a war unless they knew they expected to be defeated. For most of the time, they were busy making up alibies, in order to avoid the US prosecutors.
I am kind of surprised Putin is not as scared of US prosecutors as the SS was.
Well, The Maine was a false flag and Bucha is probably a false flag, so good comparison.
The Reichstag Fire was another of these. It was a real arson by a lone commie. But the event was spun up and attributed to a giant conspiracy of Jews and Bolsheviks that was used to justify a nation-wide political repression. But when the Germans needed a pretext to attack Poland they went full-blown premediated false flag by staging an attack on their own radio station with SS guys wearing Polish uniforms. In the 1950's the Israelis got busted running a false flag operation that bombed Western targets in Egypt and blamed the terrorism on the Islamic Brotherhood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_Affair#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20false,several%20hours%20after%20closing%20time.
The history of "false flags" and "false false flags" seems like a perfect topic for a Ron Unz essay.Replies: @Jack D
OT 81 students, more than half a class, caught cheating in one exam at Yale.
https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2022/04/05/eighty-one-students-in-anthropology-class-referred-to-executive-committee-for-academic-dishonesty
I don’t think the atrocities the Ukrainians are committing are being covered in the West, or like Bucha they get mislabelled to the Russian side.
Russia's got a big problem since the murders seem to have happened when these towns were under Russian occupation. Not likely Ukrainian death squads could be roaming around selecting collaborators for execution when the Russian Army owns the streets.Replies: @LondonBob, @J.Ross, @Anon7, @Dacian Julien Soros
The Russians left on the 30th, confirmed by the Mayor on the 31st, these supposed killings emerged on the 3rd or 4th of April, after Ukrainian Nazi paramilitaries entered the town on the 2nd to ‘cleanse’ it of collaborators, in the words of the Deputy Mayor, which why I guess the victims have white armbands or have Russian humanitarian aid packs. Sometimes it really is straightforward.
Russia's got a big problem since the murders seem to have happened when these towns were under Russian occupation. Not likely Ukrainian death squads could be roaming around selecting collaborators for execution when the Russian Army owns the streets.Replies: @LondonBob, @J.Ross, @Anon7, @Dacian Julien Soros
This accusation doesn’t make any sense, there are easy alternative explanations, there are wierd lacunae in the official story like not noticing all the unhidden bodies until after Azov showed up, and the “smoking gun” is that we actually had photographs for weeks (weeks during which the bodies neither bled nor decomposed) but for some reason said nothing about it, even while the entire media Wurlitzered for examples of Russian evil.
And if it was 100% true it’s still nothing but a disgusting war manipulation like the horror stories about Belgium or the Kuwaiti incubators.
It's a big ask to expect thinking people (as opposed to the MSM) to accept that the Russians are engaging in the cosmically counter-productive practice of just killing random civilians and leaving them strewn about in the middle of the street, because that's just "who they are."
“As soon as the cyclist rounds the turn, a Russian armored vehicle fires several high-caliber rounds along the thoroughfare. ”
It’s this sentence that alerts the reader that the article is more about sensationalism than facts. Several “high caliber” rounds. As opposed to what? Low caliber? I mean, we don’t get any of these high speed sounding adjectives when describing the road, or the cyclist, or even and adverb for his dismount.
“A second armored vehicle fires two rounds”
Whoa whoa whoa whoa there. Wait a darn minute. Were they high caliber rounds? Regular caliber rounds? Unleaded rounds? These details are crucial in understanding the span of the atrocity. Luckily Steve doesn’t engage in this type of gratuitous sensationali…
“Clearly, this cyclist got annihilated by large caliber Russian arms.”
Oohhh. Nevermind.
Well, Steve, there is history here. Remember the last time the Russians let a cyclist get too close to their tank?
The Russians can recognize patterns too, you know.
There is probably broad popular agreement on this.
This first problem, though, is “our” elites seems to hold the opposite view.
The second problem—not only in Ukraine but many other places—is even if everyone agrees war-bad-border-good, where exactly is the good border? Where the Kiev regime wants it? Or where the people in Donbas—who actually live within it—want it?
On such questions, apocalyptic wars are waged.
The problem is, after a decade or two, the elites start losing sight of the wisdom they acquire the hard way, at the expense of the populace.
If Putin had managed to arrange a couple million Syrian young men to invade Ukraine, one gets the impression that all our government and "journalist" establishment would be blabbing about the "diversity is our greatest strength" and how "Ukraine needs immigrants". There's little evidence that "the people of the Donbass" want any particular one thing. I don't claim any special knowledge of Ukraine--it's not my patch. But the Donbass is clearly *not* Crimea. The Donbass is not chock full of people who think they are Russians--much less explicitly want to be part of Russia. Just pulling up wikipedia suggests, exactly what the fighting there suggests--it's a muddle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast#Demographics
Strong majority Russian speaking -- 74%
Small majority ethnically Ukrainian -- 56%
My suspicion is that rural skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)
My bias in to "who owns the place" is that the farmers come first. They are the primary producers. And if you are making a living off your land, you are relatively immobile. (The curse of farmers since settlement--the barbarians ride in and take your stuff ... what the "lord" hasn't already stolen.) In contrast, if you're a bureaucrat, an engineer, a trademan, a clerk in Donetsk and really feel you are "Russian" and do not like the Ukrainians wanting to join the EU and "be like Poland" ... you can just move your ass to Russia and do the same stuff.
(I have the same thoughts about the American separation. Take say Madison (Dane County). Yeah, come the AnotherDad referendum, it will vote to be in Rainbow America. But the joint is basically parasitic. It depends on all the farmers and dairymen and manufacturing employees and owners in the American part of Wisconsin to pay in taxes or come for medical treatment or send their kids to University of Wisconsin. Take away its supporting--and especially taxing--the primary producers and Madison simply can't support so many Rainbow hued parasites.)
In any case, there's obviously some reason, that Crimea has been peaceful and the Donbass has not. The two plausible ones are
A) The Russian army is in Crimea, Ukrainians are sacred to mess with it.
B) The Donbass is actually quite divided in sentiment and Crimea is not.
Both are in play, but i'll note even if you think it is basically "A" and "the people of the Donbass" actually do want to be part of Russia ... Putin had accomplished that by sending in the Russian army--openly--in February. (And you'll note, that did not start a war, nor did it kick off the big Western--sanctions--response. It may fire up these Russia haters in the American establishment, but most people in the European establishment understand Eastern Ukraine is a legit muddle.)
But Putin then trashed any opportunity for that situation to congeal. Putin didn't say "Hey, this is done. If the Ukrainian army attacks, we'll respond in kind. When Ukrainians are ready to be reasonable, we can sit down and talk about plebiscites and exchange of populations and getting Ukrainians and Russians into the respective nations they belong in. And then Ukrainians--if they see fit--can go join the EU and Russians who are not interested won't have to be part of it."
Instead, Putin invaded.
And the reason Putin didn't talk about it is because his interest is has never been in helping people have the borders they want--witness Grozny. No Putin's main interest is being a big swinging dick. Putin is a "what's mine is mine; what's yours is mine" kind of guy.Replies: @Abe, @HA, @Almost Missouri, @Anon
Where is the border between your yard and your neighbor's yard?
Not where your neighbor feels it should be moved to based solely on his desire.
If Mr. Putin wants to redraw the border, he can offer to buy the land from the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Ironically, that would have been cheaper than this war.Replies: @Loyalty Over IQ Worship
Sounds like those L.A. PD were made up of Imperial Stormtroopers or African-American gangstas.
The Russians might be tempted to re-take the area, conduct their own investigation and decide the other side was responsible. That’s what happened in Katyn. Some members of that same Soviet investigation committee later turned up at Auschwitz where they concluded the Nazis had killed 4 million, processed hair, bones and clothing on an industrial scale, were able to cremate multiple corpses in a single muffle in 30 minutes, etc.
haha!
This is the Ukraine National Police – 8 minute video of how they found Bucha – published on April 2nd. A man talks about how he was arrested by the Russians but later released (in a very ineffective attempt to imply Russian brutality)
xxhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MNuMJNIS64
(remove the xx which was added to avoid the links showing as pictures – they are age-restricted anyway)
This is BBC evening news on April 1st. A 12 min segment to lead the program. 2 reporters, one at Mria 10km from Bucha. The other at Irpin – which is a twin town with Bucha one each side of the river. Plenty of talk about individual incidents in the previous month, much like your cyclist.
xxhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNTPyAsMmxs
No talk of large numbers of bodies – yet the Russians left on March 30th and the local mayor declared Bucha was under Ukrainian control on March 31st.
Draw your own conclusions.
The definite red flag for propaganda.
The laws and customs of war forbid killing noncombatant civilians and civilians not engaged in spying, but ‘hero’ Zelensky forbade all men under 60 from leaving the country and was telling civilians to attack Russian vehicles with Molotov cocktails.
People are suggesting giving the Ukrainians what they need to drive the Russians back to their start line for this war, which sounds innocuous. But the capability to push the Russians back to the prewar de facto border would entail a capacity for going much further; the Ukrainians would surely not stop at the prewar situation and try and drive the Russians out completely, quite possibly succeeding. Russia back within its recognized borders would mean loss of everything it acquired since 2014. No such thing as a limited liability war of course, but humiliating Russian is not in the Wests interests.
Some say Russia’s greatest asset is natural resources, I disagree . In my opinion the strategic space of Russia is of incalculable value, especially to China. A Beijing to Moscow rail line (maybe the Arctic passage from China to Europe) would transform the supply chain. |It is all very well talking about the West compared to Russia to but there are indications that China will falsify the belief that wealthy technologically advanced democracies will always beat totalitarian states. The West has an unspoken belief that Russia ought to be a Western style democracy because it is a white country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway More advance chicken counting/ speculation. Let's try to get the Russians to stop killing now. Calibrating the aid to give the Ukrainians just barely enough to stop the Russian advances is just getting more people killed, Russian soldiers as well as Ukrainians. I think the Ukrainians themselves would be overjoyed if they could just get back to the pre-February borders. If the war was going that badly, Putin would suddenly become more interested in a negotiated cease fire. Is there some contradiction here? Show me the evidence that the people who were murdered were enemy combatants. We have evidence that they are dead. Not even the Russians claim that they were combatants - their claim (lie) is that they didn't kill them at all. You can't be holier than the Pope and invent better, more convincing lies for them.Replies: @Sean, @Almost Missouri
“Somehow, the Mexican ladies survived 107 bullets.”
What does Sailer’s Law of Mass Shootings have to say about this?
All’s fair in love and war.
Obviously you can have some rules of engagement when troops from developed countries with volunteer armies such as the US and Britain are occupying countries like Iraq or Northern Ireland, and you want to instruct your soldiers not to shoot unarmed civilians, but an all-out war where one nation is trying to invade and destroy its neighbor, that can be no rules.
It is a fight to the death involving every man woman and child.
Afterwards the winners then have the privilege of putting the losers on trial for war crimes and executing their leaders.
It has been that way for thousands of years.
Even preventing US cops from shooting unarmed civilians in the war on drugs is a struggle.
What I find odd curious about Bucha is that it makes the news a week or so after Biden announces that "Russia is killing civilians" and that "Putin is a war criminal" as he was bidden by his advisors.Replies: @Paul Jolliffe
exactly more like Katyn Forest or 911. USS Liberty would have made the list but managed to stay afloat.
Nah, it was definitely the Ukrainian side which gunned down “collaborators”. Probably elements of the far-right in the UKR NG. But whatever.
Some real news from Ukraine:
I think I need to read Ron Unz’s article on how the Nazis were instrumental in the founding of Israel. I see a pattern.
From 3 years ago:
Canada’s Golgatha
A sculpture of a Canadian soldier ‘crucified’ on a barn door with bayonets was produced in 1918, after a rumor of the crime was circulated to stir up passions for war.
The sculpture has been mostly sitting in storage of the War Museum ever since, because it’s such an outlandish piece of propaganda.
The British army was not “occupying” Northern Ireland.
What does this mean, exactly? That it’s a little more reliable than normal NYT reporting? Because some verification process that remains to be described happened? Maybe it’s code by a seasoned reporter that the woke twenty-somethings were not involved in the article?
This is the same Russian military that we were told ran out of supplies and ammunition, yet it can waste tank rounds on a passing civilian. And there’s something in the Ukie air that keeps his surprisingly unmutilated corpse pink and unbloated after weeks’ exposure to the elements. Kept the crows and rats away too.
These are some of the better examples of occupying forces, and there were still episodes of war crimes and extrajudicial killings.
What I find odd curious about Bucha is that it makes the news a week or so after Biden announces that “Russia is killing civilians” and that “Putin is a war criminal” as he was bidden by his advisors.
I agree.
This seems to be a part of a psy-op (albeit not a very well executed one) to persuade the West and America in particular to increase the “help” to Ukraine.
Do the planners of all this desire a nuclear exchange between Russia and America?
Hmm.
What other society or country might benefit from such an outcome?
“Cui bono?” might (Might) be useful here.
More like the SS. I just saw an interview with a woman from Bucha. The Russians dragged her husband (she says he was not military and had never fired a gun in his life) out of their home in his slippers and made him kneel and executed him. Then they threw a grenade into their house and set it on fire. This was no accident in the heat of combat.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61003878
Is this woman lying? Is she a Hollywood actress? Is her husband alive and living in Miami? Did she set her own house on fire?
People in America live a sheltered life. They literally cannot imagine how a criminal regime operates. There is nothing in the American experience you can liken this to.
Shame, shame on you for trying to minimize these crimes.
Ukrainians have lived under a criminal regime since at least 2014.
Please stop parroting Biden. It's unbecoming at a mimimum.
I do not care what happens in Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207Replies: @Jack D
I'll give you a Holocaust morality play:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AP_4803040130.jpg
Were these guys also "more like the SS"?Replies: @Jack D
What Vladimir Putin doesn't understand is that if the US is going to allow its major city central districts to be burnt over some drug-addled person finding every excuse to not sit in the back of a police car, the facts-on-the-ground in Bucha mean nothing to the people who want to see Mr. Putin, as it were, Chauvinized.Replies: @Coemgen
Keep believing the narrative, Jack. I guess a person who believes in human soap and lampshade stories will believe in anything.
Ever heard of the imposition of slavery by the criminal regime known as slaveholders? I was told by the fine commenters here that your own brethren partook in such a dastardly activity. Then again, what do they know, right?Replies: @Jack D, @Curle
This woman may be telling the truth. She may be lying. It would be far from the first time that a government at war has gone to a lot of trouble to fake an atrocity.
And I think you know that.
The reason I believe that the Ukrainian soldiers committed serious war crimes by shooting Russian POWs in cold blood is this investigation by the BBC: it is very hard after reading that to see how it could be fake.
But before reading that, I just did not know.
And that is how any honest person must approach almost all of the claims about war crimes.
This of course does not apply to you.Replies: @Wizard of Oz
You should hear what the Israelis do and did.
You’re 100 years too late.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway
More advance chicken counting/ speculation. Let’s try to get the Russians to stop killing now. Calibrating the aid to give the Ukrainians just barely enough to stop the Russian advances is just getting more people killed, Russian soldiers as well as Ukrainians. I think the Ukrainians themselves would be overjoyed if they could just get back to the pre-February borders. If the war was going that badly, Putin would suddenly become more interested in a negotiated cease fire.
Is there some contradiction here? Show me the evidence that the people who were murdered were enemy combatants. We have evidence that they are dead. Not even the Russians claim that they were combatants – their claim (lie) is that they didn’t kill them at all. You can’t be holier than the Pope and invent better, more convincing lies for them.
---
Most of the people killed in this war have been Russian soldiers killed by Ukrainians, and Ukraine has tremendous momentum, morale and an unlimited supply of the mot advanced weapons and targeting technology in the world. They are in the process of getting long range anti aircraft missiles and hundreds of tanks. Of course Ukraine will press its advantage and try to get back all its lost territory. The Russian soldiers do not want to be there and have no intention of getting killed through giving civilians wandering about in a warzone littered with dead Russians the benefit of the doubt. Almost everyone had left the area's and those remaining were in cellars.
--- It is a fact that the Ukrainian forces are operating in civilian clothes and driving civilian cars Eighty percent of an army are soldiers are in support and logistics rather that being combat troops; of course in great many cases Ukrainian civilians ostensibly taking an innocents stroll during fighting are passing on information to set up ambushes or are look outs for a Javelin team. The civilian police in peacetime are going to shoot you about one half of a second after a warning if you are a threat to them. <Again, in Bucha one street had ten obliterated combat vehicles https://youtu.be/PS5yfhPGaWE?t=244Replies: @Jack D
(According the Western media, every Ukrainian woman 14-80 is a combatant and superhero, but I doubt the Russians take that seriously, to their dismay perhaps.)Replies: @Jack D, @stari_momak
I’m sure you could find a similar bunch of stories about what the Ukrainians did to the Russians when they got the upper hand.
I’m with the Ukrainians, though. They live there.
What the Russians are doing and what the Ukrainians are doing is NOT similar. At the end of WWII, a handful of American soldiers, shocked at what they saw at Dachau, shot some of the camp guards. This doesn't mean that the US Army was "similar" to the SS. As Stalin said, quantity has its own quality.Replies: @War for Blair Mountain, @Almost Missouri, @Steve Sailer
It’s all crocodile tears for the Civilians in Donbass…and these crocodile tears would dry up real fast if there was a military draft of all able body young men and women in the US to fight the Russians in Ukraine…..
There wasn’t a peep out of Steve about the slaughter of the 400 Slavic Russian Children in Donbass from 2014 to present….Replies: @RadicalCenter
Second, millions of “the ukrainians” are ethnic Russians, and millions more are native Russian speakers alongside the LESSER-used ukrainian language.
Moreover, the genetics, languages, religion, and culture of “ethnic Russians” and “ethnic ukrainians”, to the extent that they can even really be neatly separated, are extremely close, as befits historically kindred people.
** The western part of “the ukraine” was arbitrarily added to the ukrainian SSR by that Georgian paragon of freedom, peace, and democracy, Ioseb Besarionis dze Jughashvili a/k/a Josef Stalin. In 1939 he ordered the transfer of Polish land to “the ukraine”; in 1940, Romanian territory; in 1945, Czechoslovakian territory; and in 1948 some islands from Romania. The people added were of course not consulted, nor were the people already in the SSR.
** As for the Crimea, it was arbitrarily tacked on to the ukrainian SSR by another paragon of democracy, peace, and freedom, Nikita Khrushchev, in 1954. Again neither the people in the existing SSR nor the people “transferred” were consulted.
Ukrainian SSR in 1939:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Sb%2BdQSPH&id=2FDC05E48D6808CF49AEA6FCC5D6D522932770A4&thid=OIP.Sb-dQSPHPjBqsxzPLf_RxQHaEP&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR.49bf9d4123c73e306ab31ccf2dffd1c5%3Frik%3DpHAnkyLV1sX8pg%26riu%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fwww.infoukes.com%252fhistory%252fimages%252fww2%252ffigure02.gif%26ehk%3DGGk8lOysUoxVRagjFZS9OxNYSmizeyEFmJ%252bhYPvjS5g%253d%26risl%3D%26pid%3DImgRaw%26r%3D0&exph=670&expw=1170&q=ukraine+1939+1945+map&simid=608056048145872153&form=IRPRST&ck=10FC73C192323747DFEDE025196F553D&selectedindex=4&vt=4&sim=11
Current “ukraine” after the Soviet Communist dictators’ decrees:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=N9Eh%2Bc8y&id=82CB6ACB8D719DB096D6E0B06D60C91BB9E48E77&thid=OIP.N9Eh-c8yOyXEjpqq18wrvQHaEZ&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR.37d121f9cf323b25c48e9aaad7cc2bbd%3Frik%3Dd47kuRvJYG2w4A%26riu%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fniezlomni.com%252fwp-content%252fuploads%252f2016%252f11%252fukr2.png%26ehk%3DFLTOtN7ri%252fvcaAL5QbOp1%252fcvNhX7I8EnkCClGnURoT8%253d%26risl%3D%26pid%3DImgRaw%26r%3D0%26sres%3D1%26sresct%3D1&exph=475&expw=800&q=ukraine+1939+1945+map&simid=608043128883800049&form=IRPRST&ck=1140C768337C48725F67A25343F77F4F&selectedindex=8&vt=4&sim=11
Now why should we be so concerned with getting more “ukrainians” and Russians killed to preserve the borders decreed by these dictator-torturer-murderers?
By the way, the history of these territories and the allegiance / identity of the peoples in them, suggest that the countries bordering western “ukraine” could greatly benefit from a grand deal with Russia. Give the people of each western oblast the right to decide, in an internationally supervised binding referendum, whether to:
(1) stay in the “ukraine” — which, if the Russians are wise, henceforth will be a much smaller and landlocked country;
(2) become an independent country; or
(3) (re-)join Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, or Romania.
Make it a two-round election. In the second round, the people choose between the top two vote-getters from the first round.
Show me one. AFAIK, the Ukrainians have not killed one Russian civilian in this war. It appears that some unofficial militia type guys may kneecapped a few Russian POWs in an isolated incident which of course the Russians and their supporters are trying to make hay out of in order to change the subject. There are zero reports of regular Ukrainian Army abusing prisoners or anyone else. The Ukrainian government has promised to investigate this incident and prosecute the offenders if war crimes have occurred. I have heard no such promises from the Russian government.
What the Russians are doing and what the Ukrainians are doing is NOT similar. At the end of WWII, a handful of American soldiers, shocked at what they saw at Dachau, shot some of the camp guards. This doesn’t mean that the US Army was “similar” to the SS. As Stalin said, quantity has its own quality.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/RpOcLAzWeHel/Ukrainian medical director Gennadiy Druzenko orders medial staff to castrate wounded Russians
https://odysee.com/@TrickS:a/Ukraine-head-doctor:cSince you like testimony from women:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/hUqhxlbOQYkG/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ND0UDxMbxp7y/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/4fwaQA2gnpct/
https://odysee.com/@Resistance201:b/R201REPOST_CivilianWitness:5Replies: @GeologyAnonMk5
Neither side has an interest in publicizing such deeds, if they happened, right now: the Ukrainians want to be seen as the morally pure side and the Russians don't want to frighten their potential collaborators in Ukraine.Replies: @Jack D
They gave their consent to slaughter Slavic Russian Civilians in Donbass for 8 years…including 400 children…
It’s all crocodile tears for the Civilians in Donbass…and these crocodile tears would dry up real fast if there was a military draft of all able body young men and women in the US to fight the Russians in Ukraine…..
There wasn’t a peep out of Steve about the slaughter of the 400 Slavic Russian Children in Donbass from 2014 to present….
I don’t know. But I do know that the Ukrainians have an incentive to lie about things like this.
What we can imagine is a foreign regime, in concert with the U.S. State Department and Intelligence agencies, confecting a narrative in order to get the U.S. involved in a foreign war. Are Russian soldiers bayoneting premature Ukrainian babies in the NICU?
Your upset, Jack, seems to be related to the fact that many of us won’t get mad and blinded with rage right now, and are instead waiting for more facts and evidence to be revealed and asking reasonable questions instead of taking some babushka’s account at face value.
What the Russians are doing and what the Ukrainians are doing is NOT similar. At the end of WWII, a handful of American soldiers, shocked at what they saw at Dachau, shot some of the camp guards. This doesn't mean that the US Army was "similar" to the SS. As Stalin said, quantity has its own quality.Replies: @War for Blair Mountain, @Almost Missouri, @Steve Sailer
Eastern Ukraine doesn’t belong to Hillary Clinton…Barack Obama…The US Military….Hunter Biden….Joe Biden…and the diseased whore Kamala Harris…and Stacy Abrams….and the homosexual pederast Kharzar Zelensky…
Eastern Ukraine belongs to Slavic Russia like it always has for 900 years..
These are the only two options…and I know which is the only legitimate option…
Slava Russaya!!!
This first problem, though, is "our" elites seems to hold the opposite view.
The second problem—not only in Ukraine but many other places—is even if everyone agrees war-bad-border-good, where exactly is the good border? Where the Kiev regime wants it? Or where the people in Donbas—who actually live within it—want it?
On such questions, apocalyptic wars are waged.Replies: @AndrewR, @PiltdownMan, @Matt Buckalew, @AnotherDad, @Steve Sailer
Fascinating how Sailer is trying to take a pro-GloboHomoNATO stance while using xenophobic rhetoric.
This first problem, though, is "our" elites seems to hold the opposite view.
The second problem—not only in Ukraine but many other places—is even if everyone agrees war-bad-border-good, where exactly is the good border? Where the Kiev regime wants it? Or where the people in Donbas—who actually live within it—want it?
On such questions, apocalyptic wars are waged.Replies: @AndrewR, @PiltdownMan, @Matt Buckalew, @AnotherDad, @Steve Sailer
There has been broad popular agreement on it since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, and subsequently reaffirmed and refined at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, and the UN Charter in 1945.
The problem is, after a decade or two, the elites start losing sight of the wisdom they acquire the hard way, at the expense of the populace.
How to get your neighbors killed: feed occupying soldiers poison.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukrainian-civilians-kill-russian-soldiers-poisoned-cakes-report-1694559
At least two Russians soldiers were killed and dozens more were injured after Ukrainian civilians allegedly gave them poisoned cakes and alcohol near Kharkiv, according to Ukrainian intelligence officials.
Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence posted on Facebook Saturday that two soldiers died and 28 were placed in intensive care after being fed the poisoned cakes in the city of Izium. Roughly 500 additional Russian soldiers were hospitalized due to heavy alcohol poisoning of an “unknown origin,” the post added.
The troops were from the 3rd Russian Motor Rifle Division, according to Ukrainian officials. The post said the Russian government is reportedly writing off the incident as “non-combat losses.”
Americans live under a criminal regime in the US that has every incentive to lie about its enemies, foreign and domestic.
Ukrainians have lived under a criminal regime since at least 2014.
Please stop parroting Biden. It’s unbecoming at a mimimum.
Corollary to Sailer’s Law: If a black man kills more than he wounds, he’s either a vet or an e-cop.
Or, as in Waukesha, a motorist.
I do try to keep up with the Lie so I can be invited to parties. Recently the Lie was that the Russians had mobile crematoria (and, as day follows night, bone-crushing machines) to hide all the dead bodies. Then the Lie was that Russians were just shooting people and leaving them in the street. What happened to the mobile crematoria (and bone-crushing machines)? Did they get taken out by the Kiwi Ghost?
I sympathize with normal Ukrainians who don’t want to be Russian subjects, but I’m not “with” them because that clearly implies you support NATO and the US, whoch is inexcusable.
I’m not sure why you’re complaining.
According to you, “monopoly of force” is the prerogative of government (in the case of Bucha: Ukraine’s government, and then Russia’s).
Jack D on civilian ownership of guns:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/globe-and-mail-calling-the-ottawa-protests-peaceful-plays-down-non-violent-dangers-critics-say/#comment-5153914 (#109)
Odd that the Ukraine government didn’t allow (not to mention encourage) widespread civilian ownership of combat rifles (and ammo), what with being right next door to an unimaginable criminal regime. Did the Ukrainians not trust themselves, as a people, with basic, effective weaponry? And if so, why not?
https://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924Replies: @mc23, @Anonymous
He has an extensive collection of firearms, but he was informed that he would not be allowed to bring any of his own weapons. This lessened his enthusiasm tremendously.
Maxar Technologies, source of the Lie, was also the source of that 60 mile stranded convoy that was later learned to be 17 miles.
Recent Financial Times article about Finland, very very good, unintentionally very anti-Ukrainian. Finland of course scarred by experiences with Russia and adopted Swiss model of politically keeping their mouth shut and militarily emplacing a gun behind every hill. Ukraine essentially opposite to Finland.
https://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924
Under these circumstances many innocents will get killed. It's part of the equation. It's one reason the charge of waging a war of aggression is prosecuted as a war crime. You create a set of circumstances that make random violence against unavoidabe.
If only we held trials for those who didn't make a reasonable effort to contain or prevent a war. Putin would be at the head of the list but there's a lot people in the US who should at least get community service, like everyone who urged confronting and destablizing Russia.
Look at the refugees and destruction. Unavoidable? Maybe, but in this case there truly was no such thing as a bad peace and a good war.Replies: @J.Ross
So you fell for the “blame it on the Russians” Bucha slaughterpropaganda. This is the problem with reading commentary by “American” Jews.
Briefly: the Russians withdrew on Feb 30th: no bodies; for two days, Bucha officials were recorded saying the Russians left and they were happy about it: Still no bodies; there are images of the Ukrainian walking into Bucha shortly thereafter: Still no bodies; then, on the third day, we see bodies; and we have recording of an Ukrainian soldier asking if it is OK to shoot people without the blue bands about their arm: “Yes” said his superior officer. The dead were those who did not support Zellensky or supported the Russians.
I recommend that the commenters here start listening to Gonzalo Lira who is Kharkov giving daily reports. Teh ukrainian assassins are hunting for him.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPxpPT4b4vnDlX0sBGz3r4Q
.
Edward Luttwak IIRC has suggested that Poland and the Baltic states re-organize their armies along Swiss-style militia “every man be armed” lines. I’m not expecting Russia to embark on any Polish or Baltic adventures but probably not a bad idea.
Not my country. Not my people. On the other side of the world.
I do not care what happens in Ukraine.
“collaborators with the Russians executed by Ukrainians. That’s a not unworthy goal. Clearly, this cyclist got annihilated by large caliber Russian arms.”
Huh? In theory those people will have to live together and cooperate at some future date. Or one or the other group will have to be separated by deportation or whatever, like Greeks and Turks when the Ottoman empire dissolved.
One aspect you might not get is Russian is the language of technicians in Ukraine. If the Russians go then they take all modern industry with them. Based on past performance USA NATO EU was unwilling to send any high tech work to Ukraine. For example buying weapons or aircraft from Ukraine. So the war is lose, lose more, or die for Ukraine.
BTW, who is going to rebuild what is left of Ukraine? Popular choices are EU, Russia, China, anyone else? My guess is Russia+China.
An observation, Israel is not supporting USA NATO EU sanctions. It is not clear what their calculation is, but in the past Israel has always ended up winning.
Some Russo-Ukrainian companies Americans might know of:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playrix#History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherp
I got a Sherp. The GREATEST off-road vehicle on the planet!
Speaking of Cuba, Spain and all. Why don’t I hear much anymore about Central American wars, drugs, commies, the CIA, the US being bogged down in the jungle, et cetera?
Did that part of world get fixed, or something? Anti-American propaganda was all the rage during the 80’s and some of the 90’s regarding those places and now it’s all gone quiet.
Curious if y’all have some ideas on why our media doesn’t care about what have to be on-going despotisms and squalid Marxist guerilla cells. Maybe it’s all peace and bananas these days.
The New York Times again. And no doubt “experts” have something to say about all of this too.
But that evidence is “mounting” (as opposed to somehow decreasing”), so something must be up.
There could have been 26 atrocities committed by Russian forces and 1,287 committed by the Ukrainian side, but that Russian number is mounting so it’s time to send in the troops.
I obviously just made up those numbers above. My point is to consider the source. Why should we take seriously a “news” outlet which completely blacks out black on white crime, some of it really atrocious, but wouldn’t hesitate to talk about “mounting hate crimes against people of color,” strongly implying it was white racists who are responsible for it?
The propaganda war is in the mopping up stages, as the basic objectives of the Deep State have been met. I am not excusing anyone’s behavior in this war, but the propaganda produced by Ukraine’s Washington’s consultants is the crudest variety, as crude as anything in the Spanish War satirized by Mark Twain.
Milley’s pronouncement that this conflict will likely continue for years or even a decade ( bet the over) confirms that the objective has been met: Another long-term commitment to a foreign entanglement fighting another monster abroad.
They have “unified NATO” which is “stronger than ever.” The War Profiteers all have new lucrative, long-term contracts with the government to soak American taxpayers. Milley also said their was no way to deter Russia’s invasion ( indeed, why would they deter what they wanted?), and the obedient press will memory hole the Biden admin’s claim that sanctions would be a deterrence.
I grew up in DC and it had a sort of dignified shabbiness about it, with prominent Senators and officials living in modest homes in Chevy Chase or Bethesda or Northern Virginia. It was not a city awash in consultants and grifters worth 10s of millions of dollars. That has all changed. It is now a big money trough with the pigs fattening themselves shamelessly, never taking their faces out of the slop.
Also agree with you about DC. Yeah there were always rich people living around NW and the Potomac area, but not the kind of wealth we see now. Dignified shabbiness is a good way to put it - well-off, smart academic types..the type who would drive Volvo station wagons. Now it's unrecognizable.
Not paying attention to Ukrainian war reports as we can trust none of them. But as for soldiers killing a bicyclist, I know first hand how it can happen. During a foot patrol in Iraq around midnight, a teenager on a bicycle came barreling towards us. By the ROE we could have blown him away (and others in similar incidents did just that). We were yelling at him to stop and blinding him with flashlights, but still he came to us. As the leader of the patrol, I just had a “sense” that this wasn’t a suicide bomber but just a dumbshit kid who was too shocked and scared to stop or turn away. So I stepped forward and as he approached I knocked him out with my rifle butt. Dumbest thing I ever did, but I was lucky since he was not a terrorist as we ascertained after searching him. Later my guys were pretty split on whether we should have shot him or not, since if he had been a suicide bomber I let him get close enough to blow us all up. We knew we were always being watched, so if it had happened again we would have opened fire on assumption some terrorist was trying to take advantage of a pattern we had just set.
Most European societies don’t have a tradition of civilian gun ownership, especially not handguns. America, with its Revolutionary roots and abundant hunting tradition, is somewhat unique in this regard (and even in America for a long time it was thought that the 2nd Amendment applied mainly to the national guard and that cities could regulate handgun carry to the point where it was effectively banned except for a handful of special exceptions). Maybe America (which BTW has a very high rate of hand gun homicide by white country standards) is the outlier here and Ukraine is the “normal” country in regard to its gun ownership laws.
OTOH, when the war was imminent, Ukraine did start handing out guns so that people could form self-defense militias.
You’re changing the subject here – what you are saying has nothing to do with what happened to Oleg. Would it have helped Oleg if he had a gun? Was he suppose to take on the Russian Army by himself? If he had had one, people here would say that he was a combatant out of uniform and the Russians would have been justified in shooting him.
But in fact he was unarmed and shooting him was an undeniable war crime and no, the LAPD doesn’t drag innocent civilians out of their houses and execute them.
https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Thompson-submachine-gun-vintage-advertisement.jpg Love the passive tense there. Thought so by whom? Men without chests like you?The Bill of Rights is pretty explicit in protecting gun rights and the Second Amendment was never about the National Guard which did not come into being until the early 20th Century. The legal history of the term "militia" is pretty clear and referred to a combination of an organized militia and an unorganized militia, the whole body of eligible voters (in the past free, propertied white males of adult age, now all citizens over age 18).Replies: @James Forrestal, @kaganovitch
During Ketanji Brown Jackson’s confirmation hearings, senators John Cornyn and Lindsey Graham accused her of calling Donald Rumsfeld and George W. Bush war criminals. This accusation was based on a tendentious inference drawn from a brief she filed on behalf of a Guantanamo Bay detainee.
But if Putin can be labeled a war criminal, and I believe that is appropriate, shouldn’t George W. Bush also be labeled one? How is what Putin has done different than what George W. Bush did? Perhaps Lindsey Graham will explain.
This is playing into the Russian's game. They take the West's bottom as their starting point and they plumb the depths of depravity from there.
Suppose that heaven forbid you once hit a pedestrian by mistake with your car. In Putin's mode of thinking, this means that he has the right to drive down the road and intentionally mow people down, as many as he feels like hitting. After all, you killed someone with your car - who are you to say that killing people with your car is wrong?
When you are six years old, your parents tell you, "if your friends jump off of a building, that doesn't mean that you should do it too." As the avatar of White Christian morality (supposedly) Putin should aspire to be BETTER than America, not worse. Apparently no one taught Putin that lesson.Replies: @Harry Baldwin
Milley's pronouncement that this conflict will likely continue for years or even a decade ( bet the over) confirms that the objective has been met: Another long-term commitment to a foreign entanglement fighting another monster abroad.
They have "unified NATO" which is "stronger than ever." The War Profiteers all have new lucrative, long-term contracts with the government to soak American taxpayers. Milley also said their was no way to deter Russia's invasion ( indeed, why would they deter what they wanted?), and the obedient press will memory hole the Biden admin's claim that sanctions would be a deterrence.
I grew up in DC and it had a sort of dignified shabbiness about it, with prominent Senators and officials living in modest homes in Chevy Chase or Bethesda or Northern Virginia. It was not a city awash in consultants and grifters worth 10s of millions of dollars. That has all changed. It is now a big money trough with the pigs fattening themselves shamelessly, never taking their faces out of the slop.Replies: @Frank McGar, @J.Ross
Wow, who woulda thunk it? Turns out it’s really difficult to deter something while you’re actively provoking it. Getting the war started was the hard part, now they just need to keep it going. So far so good.
Also agree with you about DC. Yeah there were always rich people living around NW and the Potomac area, but not the kind of wealth we see now. Dignified shabbiness is a good way to put it – well-off, smart academic types..the type who would drive Volvo station wagons. Now it’s unrecognizable.
For context on the 100+ bullets fired into the wrong pickup;
In Germany with 80 million population – total bullets fired by all police in all incidents in a year averages 70 rounds.
iSteve you shouldn’t let Chico Marx a proof a reada.
Bucha: More like the Babies Thrown out of Incubators or the notorious Saunas of Death™?
Either way, it’s clear what Bill Kristol and David Frum’s “Fellow Americans” are morally obligated to do:
Onward! Defeat the evil Putler and his ebil not-see/ Bolshevik/ Great Russian chauvinist minions! Defend the Kolomoisky/ Zelensky regime from this madman! Stop him from taking over the world! If we don’t fight them on the Dnieper, we’ll be fighting them on the Missippi!
Don’t worry — Bill Kristol and David Frum will be right there beside you, throwing paint balloons at tanks. And “Jack D” will be right, uh, behind you…
But if Putin can be labeled a war criminal, and I believe that is appropriate, shouldn't George W. Bush also be labeled one? How is what Putin has done different than what George W. Bush did? Perhaps Lindsey Graham will explain.Replies: @Frank McGar, @Jack D, @Jonathan Mason, @HA
I’d put Clinton, Bush/Cheney, Obama, and Trump on that list for sure. At some point it just became totally normal for American presidents to bomb any countries they want, whenever they want, with no accountability whatsoever. Because of various human error (combined with not giving a shit), civilians die in these drone strokes all the time. *Shoulder shrug. I think Obama hit record numbers with his drone strikes while he was in office, and Trump was on course to beat him had he won the election. We used to at least pretend that we needed approval to do so. Pretty soon we will just have AI doing it for us. Randomly drone striking (insert third world country) to keep their (insert rebel group that we previously armed to provoke regime change, but now they are out of control and we have to bomb them) at bay.
I tried the the court trial style timelining and positioning of people thing with her story, and it doesn’t make a lot of sense. Of course, that could be as innocent as simple mistranslation or Chinese telephone syndrome on the part of the BBC.
On the other hand, here in Japan we had an Anglophone “foreign correspondent” stringer selling stories and live video reports in the aftermath of the earthquake/tsunami, and I’m pretty sure a lot of his stuff was novelistically enhanced. I think he really believed everything he reported happened, and his lack of language skills helped out. Expat-Japan-Twitter had a field day with this guy.
I try not to get taken in by Gell-Mann amnesia:
In my case, since I know that English language coverage of Japan, in peacetime, is crazy inaccurate, I try to keep in mind that wartime coverage in other non-Anglophone countries is probably much worse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#GellMannAmnesiaEffect
Breaking news:

Highly placed sources in the Zelensky-Kolomoisky security apparatus reliably inform us that ongoing consultations with the Atlantic Council will determine what the nascent semitic supremacist settler-colonialist state in the Ukraine will be called. “Big Israel” has already been rejected due to “bad optics.” Leading candidates at this point include “New Galicia” and “Eretz Khazaria.” What has been determined is that this firm will be a leading “financial consultant” to the new regime:
https://arendacapital.com/
Just look up the civilian death toll in the Second Gulf war
Objectively wrong. They generally do and made a conscious decision to reject it at a particular point as part of modernization. The three big examples being Czecha (surrounded by the three biggest empires, no ocean barriers, your own prowess becomes a legend but doesn’t exactly help), Swiss (the reason Wilhelm Tell shot an arrow off his son’s head was to convince the Austrian Empire to not even try), and England (see the bit in In Search Of The Second Amendment describing how the Glorious Revolution was actually about the concept which would later give birth to the Second Amendment). Question, racistly for persons of Hebraic ancestry: what us haaaaaaaaannnting? What’s that? Hunting? Shooting an aminal? Why would anyone do that? Dere’s no aminals in the Europe, right?
Milley's pronouncement that this conflict will likely continue for years or even a decade ( bet the over) confirms that the objective has been met: Another long-term commitment to a foreign entanglement fighting another monster abroad.
They have "unified NATO" which is "stronger than ever." The War Profiteers all have new lucrative, long-term contracts with the government to soak American taxpayers. Milley also said their was no way to deter Russia's invasion ( indeed, why would they deter what they wanted?), and the obedient press will memory hole the Biden admin's claim that sanctions would be a deterrence.
I grew up in DC and it had a sort of dignified shabbiness about it, with prominent Senators and officials living in modest homes in Chevy Chase or Bethesda or Northern Virginia. It was not a city awash in consultants and grifters worth 10s of millions of dollars. That has all changed. It is now a big money trough with the pigs fattening themselves shamelessly, never taking their faces out of the slop.Replies: @Frank McGar, @J.Ross
I deserve hell, not because of my moral failings, not because of my vices, but because I never stepped into an elevator with the used helicopter donator and homosexual Willy Milley and %@&%#@% open his neck.
No way.
But if Putin can be labeled a war criminal, and I believe that is appropriate, shouldn't George W. Bush also be labeled one? How is what Putin has done different than what George W. Bush did? Perhaps Lindsey Graham will explain.Replies: @Frank McGar, @Jack D, @Jonathan Mason, @HA
So if Bush is no different than Putin, this means that Saddam Hussein is no different than Zelensky. I disagree.
This is playing into the Russian’s game. They take the West’s bottom as their starting point and they plumb the depths of depravity from there.
Suppose that heaven forbid you once hit a pedestrian by mistake with your car. In Putin’s mode of thinking, this means that he has the right to drive down the road and intentionally mow people down, as many as he feels like hitting. After all, you killed someone with your car – who are you to say that killing people with your car is wrong?
When you are six years old, your parents tell you, “if your friends jump off of a building, that doesn’t mean that you should do it too.” As the avatar of White Christian morality (supposedly) Putin should aspire to be BETTER than America, not worse. Apparently no one taught Putin that lesson.
I don't follow your logic. Whether Saddam Hussein is a worse leader than Zelensky has nothing to do with our right to start a war and kill tens of thousands of people.
You can say Bush was misinformed. He started a war "accidentally." Putin may have also been misinformed.Replies: @Anon7
Does Sailer’s Law apply to mass shootings by the police?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway More advance chicken counting/ speculation. Let's try to get the Russians to stop killing now. Calibrating the aid to give the Ukrainians just barely enough to stop the Russian advances is just getting more people killed, Russian soldiers as well as Ukrainians. I think the Ukrainians themselves would be overjoyed if they could just get back to the pre-February borders. If the war was going that badly, Putin would suddenly become more interested in a negotiated cease fire. Is there some contradiction here? Show me the evidence that the people who were murdered were enemy combatants. We have evidence that they are dead. Not even the Russians claim that they were combatants - their claim (lie) is that they didn't kill them at all. You can't be holier than the Pope and invent better, more convincing lies for them.Replies: @Sean, @Almost Missouri
Ukraine is what what Makinder called the heartland: key to world domination
Beijing to Moscow high speed railway. It will be the biggest job for the highest stakes ever.
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Most of the people killed in this war have been Russian soldiers killed by Ukrainians, and Ukraine has tremendous momentum, morale and an unlimited supply of the mot advanced weapons and targeting technology in the world. They are in the process of getting long range anti aircraft missiles and hundreds of tanks. Of course Ukraine will press its advantage and try to get back all its lost territory. The Russian soldiers do not want to be there and have no intention of getting killed through giving civilians wandering about in a warzone littered with dead Russians the benefit of the doubt. Almost everyone had left the area’s and those remaining were in cellars.
—
It is a fact that the Ukrainian forces are operating in civilian clothes and driving civilian cars
Eighty percent of an army are soldiers are in support and logistics rather that being combat troops; of course in great many cases Ukrainian civilians ostensibly taking an innocents stroll during fighting are passing on information to set up ambushes or are look outs for a Javelin team. The civilian police in peacetime are going to shoot you about one half of a second after a warning if you are a threat to them. <Again, in Bucha one street had ten obliterated combat vehicles
Shame on you for being so stupid as to believe this garbage, garbage that has being going on perhaps since human existence. And where is this “interview you speak of? All I see is a photograph of some anonymous woman. Are you should stupid that you believe the BBC fiction
Either way, it's clear what Bill Kristol and David Frum's "Fellow Americans" are morally obligated to do:
https://i.postimg.cc/W301vrWy/Destroy-Mad-Brute-Enlist2.jpg
Onward! Defeat the evil Putler and his ebil not-see/ Bolshevik/ Great Russian chauvinist minions! Defend the Kolomoisky/ Zelensky regime from this madman! Stop him from taking over the world! If we don't fight them on the Dnieper, we'll be fighting them on the Missippi!
https://i.postimg.cc/W1fGFLNv/Zelensky-Volunteers-for-Ukraine.png
Don't worry -- Bill Kristol and David Frum will be right there beside you, throwing paint balloons at tanks. And "Jack D" will be right, uh, behind you...Replies: @James Forrestal
“Mississippi”
Weird. One would think that after WWII, the means of lethal self-defense (civilian herd immunity) would be a big deal. Unless the Holocaust, and genocide in general, is rhetorically overblown by some in its significance. I guess some people would rather kvetch about past (and present) government massacres than actually deter them.
America has a lot of Blacks. Probably more, per capita, than “most European societies”. You should look up the murder stats by race in America. There’s a blog and Twitter account by some guy named Steve Sailer that addresses this from time to time.
Well, massive wars with civilian slaughter are normal for Europe, and yet here you are kvetching. Are you for European “normal” or not? Maybe restrictive gun ownership laws have something to do with civilians being helplessly slaughtered by governments? If that’s normal for Europe, and you like whatever’s normal, I don’t understand your complaints about Bucha. It’s normal.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. An invasion might have been deterred, and failing that, executions of unarmed adult civilians would not be possible. Unless those individuals chose to be unarmed.
It has everything to do with Oleg’s specific fate.
Not by himself. I didn’t write that the Ukraine government should allow only Oleg to have a rifle and ammo.
It’s called war. Shooting happens. I would rather civilians be armed, but you would rather them be totally at the mercy of others, so you can cry crocodile tears about the results. Curious.
Kind of hard to do, physically, if the LAPD is outnumbered by legally armed civilians. A totalitarian LAPD may be able to hit a few houses until word gets around and then bye-bye LAPD.
I think you’re not giving the American people enough credit:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207
Everyone feels that way . . . after their tribe has won the last war and established borders that suit them.
And we could say the same thing about every nation on earth.
Russia's got a big problem since the murders seem to have happened when these towns were under Russian occupation. Not likely Ukrainian death squads could be roaming around selecting collaborators for execution when the Russian Army owns the streets.Replies: @LondonBob, @J.Ross, @Anon7, @Dacian Julien Soros
All that is needed is a competent medical forensic examination of the bodies in Bucha. If these people were killed on or before March 30th, then this is a Russian atrocity. If, on the other hand, the bodies were found to have been murdered after that, this is a Ukrainian atrocity, probably the murder of people found to have collaborated with the Russians.
On April 3rd and 4th, Russia asked for an emergency Security Council meeting to accomplish this examination, and a full UN team capable of this activity is in Ukraine now.
Apparently, though, no examination will take place.
So all that is left is narrative vs. counter-narrative.
The L.A. City Council gave them $4.2 million ..
and out of their own pockets. How contrite.
LA taxpayers themselves could have done more. For instance, voters in the totally crappy, N KC school district just approved a $140M bond refi (79%) that extends duration and allows the district to convert 2 mills of its property tax revenues, “lockboxed” for debt service, into general operating (i.e. slush) funds (71%). Voters in nearby Park Hall approved similar measures / amounts.
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Most of the people killed in this war have been Russian soldiers killed by Ukrainians, and Ukraine has tremendous momentum, morale and an unlimited supply of the mot advanced weapons and targeting technology in the world. They are in the process of getting long range anti aircraft missiles and hundreds of tanks. Of course Ukraine will press its advantage and try to get back all its lost territory. The Russian soldiers do not want to be there and have no intention of getting killed through giving civilians wandering about in a warzone littered with dead Russians the benefit of the doubt. Almost everyone had left the area's and those remaining were in cellars.
--- It is a fact that the Ukrainian forces are operating in civilian clothes and driving civilian cars Eighty percent of an army are soldiers are in support and logistics rather that being combat troops; of course in great many cases Ukrainian civilians ostensibly taking an innocents stroll during fighting are passing on information to set up ambushes or are look outs for a Javelin team. The civilian police in peacetime are going to shoot you about one half of a second after a warning if you are a threat to them. <Again, in Bucha one street had ten obliterated combat vehicles https://youtu.be/PS5yfhPGaWE?t=244Replies: @Jack D
We don’t know that. The Ukrainians (like the Russians) have not been releasing military casualty figures because they don’t want to damage morale. Furthermore, we really don’t know at this point how many civilians the Russians have killed although it appears to be many thousands. If the Russian plan to starve Ukraine out succeeds, it could be millions.
Of course in great many cases Ukrainian civilians ostensibly taking an innocent stroll are actually taking an innocent stroll (or actually desperately seeking food because they are starving or trying to make it back home or to a cellar, etc.). The Russian appear to shoot on sight with no attempt to distinguish between the enemy spies and innocent civilians. How would they even know if they were spies if they just shot them on sight? Maybe by luck some of the people that they shot really were enemy spies but if so it’s only by chance because the Russians were going down the street and shooting everyone that they saw. No matter how many excuses you make, this is a war crime.
People here seem to want to give the Russians “the benefit of the doubt” but the Russians have done nothing to deserve the benefit of the doubt. Maybe the women who say that they were raped by Russian soldiers (often after the Russians had just executed their husbands) really had consensual sex with them but given the history, I would start with the presumption that they are telling the truth.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/world/europe/russian-soldiers-sexual-violence-ukraine.html
Killing the enemy males and taking their women is something that is deeply rooted in human history but this is the 21st century – we are supposed to be more civilized than that.
It appears that Putin’s bullshit about being there to eliminate Nazis is actually being believed by Russian soldiers. They are going around shooting Ukrainian civilians because they are convinced that all Ukrainians are Nazis and it’s OK to execute Nazis.
A short timeline:
* After the Jewish Bolshevik revolution, connected Bolshie Jews gobbled up everything of value in Russia.
* Stalin eventually clawed it back for the state.
* In the 90s, Jews once again stole everything of value in Russia with the help of their American ethnic cohorts.
* Putin has clawed some of it back and threatens to claw back more. This is mainly why Jewish media hates him, but they don't like that he helped rebuild the Russian Orthodox church (remember, Jews burned many a church in the Revolution).
* Uki war starts, Jews froth at the mouth for war with Russia, because they smell the opportunity to steal everything AGAIN, for the third time. Third time's the charm, as they say.
And of course in Ukraine, Jews still own everything, which they stole. Which is why Ukraine is the "poorest country in Europe." It's not, really. It's just the most-looted one.
Jack really, really hates the Russians, probably from watching "Fiddler on the Roof" too many times.Replies: @Bragadocious
In the Yeltsin era America was virtually directing his election and America and Germany were paying off Russian government to compromise the national interest by means of international loan that were disappearing into personal Swiss bank accounts. Putin rose to power because he was an relatively honest and unambitious administrator. There little reason to see his analysis of America's actions as idiosyncratic for a Russian. Ought America to have not pushed Russia so hard, AOTBE i would say America did the right think, but the trouble is it is not just the US and Russia, there is China. When Medvedev said the other day ‘The goal is for the sake of the peace of future generations of Ukrainians themselves and the opportunity to finally build an open Eurasia – from Lisbon to Vladivostok' he is really talking about the export of Chinese products. The crucial criterion for following containment as a strategy was that George F. Kennan made a central pillar of hisargument, the Soviet Union had weakness that would only become more crippling as time went on. That is not true of China because their expansion will be commercial-economic so military containment of China in the way Russia was contained is going to be difficult enough without leaving Russia with a feeling of fear and loathing toward America for a total humiliation in Ukraine as things are going Russia is likely to suffer a catastrophic defeat and America what in the not tooo distant future will be seen as a pyrrhic victory.
There are evil bastards in every army along with others who act according to justice no matter what. Most Russian soldiers are like everone else dependent on the circumstances.The Russian army's officers are like everything else in their army not very good and the bad apples may be not kept under control, but I don't think you can make out that Russians are bad people or even that their state is misdirected. Putin in my opinion was well aware that invading Ukraine would being his leadership and even the existence of the Russian state into question. It beggars belief that he thought he could conquer a de facto member of Nato with 40 million people without getting a reaction very much like he has got. I happen to think that Putin knew it would be an extreme risk, but felt it was right for Russia in the final analysis. So he decided to do it, no matter what.
The SS may have been brutal but they were probably more disciplined and professional than most American cops.
Here’s a bodycam video of a New York State trooper fatally shooting an unarmed motorist in the back of the neck two months ago.
Of course, you didn’t hear anything about it because the dead guy was white:
But if Putin can be labeled a war criminal, and I believe that is appropriate, shouldn't George W. Bush also be labeled one? How is what Putin has done different than what George W. Bush did? Perhaps Lindsey Graham will explain.Replies: @Frank McGar, @Jack D, @Jonathan Mason, @HA
Yes, George W. Bush IS a war criminal, and the Obama administration failure to prosecute the Bush torture gangs is a disgrace.
Even an Englishman can find the truth on occasion. But don't forget Cheney, Rummy, and the PNAC Straussians who are currently activated to prolong the war in Ukraine. Putin's gotten pretty much what he wanted but the US and UK neocons in government and media are actively sabotaging diplomatic entreaties.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207Replies: @Jack D
Again, what people are doing here (the Russians love when you do this) is conflating American mistakes with Russian intentional acts. There is a big difference in the treatment at law of accidental homicide vs. intentional homicide. It’s quite obvious that many of the civilian deaths that the Russians are causing are 100% intentional murder/ executions and not accident or mistaken identity (unless you consider mistaking all Ukrainians for Nazis to be a legitimate case of mistaken identity).
Look, maybe the Russians committed a war crime. Given their lower standards of organization and discipline and endemic alcoholism I concede the chances are greater than 50%. However, we have a corrupt Ukrainian government in collusion with the Deep State seeking to stoke war fever in the West through manufacture of some mediagenic atrocity (cf. Syria) and willing to go to any extent of deception and distortion to do so. They also seem amazingly blasé about the possibility of a nuclear exchange.
I am pro-Russian people, pro-Ukrainian people, pro-US people, against the corrupt elites on all sides who seek to prolong or intensify this conflict for their own special interests. I am also anti-b@llsh!t and will continue to point out the lies, deceptions, and resorts to emotional special pleading used to manipulate us. War is hell and crimes get committed all the time in the process of it. The US Army executed German POW’s in cold blood when they proved inconvenient (cf. THE IRISHMAN). In Korea there are documented incidents of same done to Chinese POW’s and the bodies of Chinese dead were used as bridge ballast during the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir. Does this make the US Army the “bad guys”?
Stay calm, call out the bullsh!t, demand a path to peace.Replies: @Jack D
But if Putin can be labeled a war criminal, and I believe that is appropriate, shouldn't George W. Bush also be labeled one? How is what Putin has done different than what George W. Bush did? Perhaps Lindsey Graham will explain.Replies: @Frank McGar, @Jack D, @Jonathan Mason, @HA
“How is what Putin has done different than what George W. Bush did?”
I’m not a fan of the Iraq war, but come on, get a clue. Zelensky is no Qusay or Uday. And Bush tried for months to get UN and other bodies to settle this by way of broad consensus. He assembled an international alliance from a variety of nations and perspectives to participate. He didn’t lie and pretend this was some “military operation”. In those cases where US soldiers were caught abusing Iraquis (e.g. Lynndie England) it caused widespread outrage among Americans themselves, and led to government prosecution, as opposed to some shoddy effort to pretend it was all faked by hostile media.
Moreover, even now, Iraq is STILL not the 51st star in the American flag. (I just checked — see for yourself.) Not one acre of it was swiped and declared to be American, or even Kuwaiti.
Do I expect this to sway the majority of the readers of Unz-dot-com? Of course not. But they should at least understand why even some of the more justifiable causes they advocate for will be regarded as “fringe”, and this kind of attitude will not help in that regard.
Just like in business, it's not so much that everything runs faultlessly all the time, but what you do about it when things don't. When American soldiers were accused of war crimes, then the alleged crimes were investigated and the perpetrators punished. Allegations that are difficult to prove during wartime, I dare say, too.
I am glad Russia has now directed its efforts to the east and south. In fact I think there's a good change the whole Kiev thing was a head fake to keep the Kievan forces tied down. I've said that for a while now.Replies: @HA
Lol! Jack D immediately takes a fog-of-war stance about possible Ukrainian misdeeds, but he’s 100% dead certain about every Russian war crime story, however implausible. Do you still believe in the Ghost of Kiev, Jack? Jack also seems to post 50 times on every war thread. How very tiresome to put up with his age-old ethnic grievance.
A short timeline:
* After the Jewish Bolshevik revolution, connected Bolshie Jews gobbled up everything of value in Russia.
* Stalin eventually clawed it back for the state.
* In the 90s, Jews once again stole everything of value in Russia with the help of their American ethnic cohorts.
* Putin has clawed some of it back and threatens to claw back more. This is mainly why Jewish media hates him, but they don’t like that he helped rebuild the Russian Orthodox church (remember, Jews burned many a church in the Revolution).
* Uki war starts, Jews froth at the mouth for war with Russia, because they smell the opportunity to steal everything AGAIN, for the third time. Third time’s the charm, as they say.
And of course in Ukraine, Jews still own everything, which they stole. Which is why Ukraine is the “poorest country in Europe.” It’s not, really. It’s just the most-looted one.
Jack really, really hates the Russians, probably from watching “Fiddler on the Roof” too many times.
Stop making up bullshit.
Most European societies absolutely had a tradition of civilian gun ownership (and hunting). Until the last century or two, it was common in England for people (including ladies) to be armed for traveling on the roads for fear of “highwaymen” and in the cities against ruffians. Indeed, English common law recognized the right of civilian to possess arms for centuries. Where do you think our Founding Father’s explicit protection of the gun rights came from? It didn’t magically spring from the Revolution.
Indeed, it was only in the 20th Century that serious limitation on the possession of guns (and handguns in particular) began in England with the Pistols Act of 1903. Likewise, it was common, until very recently, for most English and French farmhouses to have long guns for hunting. As late as World War II, German military officers had to buy their own handguns through the civilian market. It was only with the monstrous rise of the Administrative State after World War II that gun restrictions became draconian (prior to 1934, for example, Americans could walk into a sporting goods store and order a Thompson submachine gun by mail, no background checks needed).
Love the passive tense there. Thought so by whom? Men without chests like you?
The Bill of Rights is pretty explicit in protecting gun rights and the Second Amendment was never about the National Guard which did not come into being until the early 20th Century. The legal history of the term “militia” is pretty clear and referred to a combination of an organized militia and an unorganized militia, the whole body of eligible voters (in the past free, propertied white males of adult age, now all citizens over age 18).
Sad!
Steve Sailer:
“Wars are bad.Borders are good”
Borders 90% of the time are the *cause* of wars. You can’t have one without also having the other.
I could be wrong but I believe the correct answer is still zero.Replies: @Harry Baldwin
Or, as in Waukesha, a motorist.Replies: @James Forrestal
Well… terrorist Darrell E. “Mathboi Fly” Brooks, who was closely affiliated with the notorious anti-White hate group “BLM,” slaughtered 6 members of the White community and maimed 62 in the Waukesha Massacre, so that example of anti-White stochastic terrorism doesn’t do much to advance your thesis.
And if we look at a terrorist attack in Europe with similar numbers of casualties, the 2016 Berlin truck attack, the perpetrator killed 12 and wounded 56 — with a higher-profile vehicle and (arguably) a more tightly-packed crowd. The 2016 Nice attack, also using a box truck, resulted in more casualties, but an even lower ratio of killed to wounded — 86 to 458.
Offhand, I can’t think of single example of a vehicular attack that had comparable numbers of wounded and dead. It makes sense if you think about it. In a vehicular attack, unlike a mass shooting, the terrorist is aiming more at a mass of people than at particular individuals — and many of his targets are actively trying to get out of his path.
It’s always the Holocaust morality play with you.
I’ll give you a Holocaust morality play:
Were these guys also “more like the SS”?
This first problem, though, is "our" elites seems to hold the opposite view.
The second problem—not only in Ukraine but many other places—is even if everyone agrees war-bad-border-good, where exactly is the good border? Where the Kiev regime wants it? Or where the people in Donbas—who actually live within it—want it?
On such questions, apocalyptic wars are waged.Replies: @AndrewR, @PiltdownMan, @Matt Buckalew, @AnotherDad, @Steve Sailer
Quite a few people here who used “our” when describing American elites have been exposed to be about as American as Benjamin Netanyahu albeit of the Mongloruss tribe as opposed to “the” tribe. Including quite a few that cosplayed as founding stock Americans. What is there to say tempers flare and you forget your lines and ours become yours and Jeffs and Dannys become Sergeis and Fyodors.
I completely agree. We might have been hopelessly naive about Putin and the Russians, thinking that he was somehow the Great White Hope, and we have been horribly disappointed. There’s no use trying to hide it.
Just like in business, it’s not so much that everything runs faultlessly all the time, but what you do about it when things don’t. When American soldiers were accused of war crimes, then the alleged crimes were investigated and the perpetrators punished. Allegations that are difficult to prove during wartime, I dare say, too.
https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Thompson-submachine-gun-vintage-advertisement.jpg Love the passive tense there. Thought so by whom? Men without chests like you?The Bill of Rights is pretty explicit in protecting gun rights and the Second Amendment was never about the National Guard which did not come into being until the early 20th Century. The legal history of the term "militia" is pretty clear and referred to a combination of an organized militia and an unorganized militia, the whole body of eligible voters (in the past free, propertied white males of adult age, now all citizens over age 18).Replies: @James Forrestal, @kaganovitch
He’s just afraid the peasants are going to rise up and “pogrom”/a> him if they’re allowed to possess firearms. Typical semitic supremacist paranoia.
Sad!
There are the historical proclivities of Russian soldiery.
But I see this as primarily a matter of probably poorly trained soldiers surrounded by a hostile and often armed and aggressive civilian population.
I saw all this coming when there was all this celebration of heroic Ukrainian civilians taking up arms. The cute blonde in the pink jacket being handed an AK-47…ohh ohh.
When the civilians are potentially armed and dangerous, civilians tend to get shot — and not necessarily the right civilians.
This isn’t to justify any of it. It’s just to point out that this is the way it is.
This first problem, though, is "our" elites seems to hold the opposite view.
The second problem—not only in Ukraine but many other places—is even if everyone agrees war-bad-border-good, where exactly is the good border? Where the Kiev regime wants it? Or where the people in Donbas—who actually live within it—want it?
On such questions, apocalyptic wars are waged.Replies: @AndrewR, @PiltdownMan, @Matt Buckalew, @AnotherDad, @Steve Sailer
Agree. There’s a lot of hypocrisy from the American establishment now. Ukraine’s border is sacred, but America’s border (or Hungary’s border) … well nah, not so much, that would be racist!
If Putin had managed to arrange a couple million Syrian young men to invade Ukraine, one gets the impression that all our government and “journalist” establishment would be blabbing about the “diversity is our greatest strength” and how “Ukraine needs immigrants”.
There’s little evidence that “the people of the Donbass” want any particular one thing. I don’t claim any special knowledge of Ukraine–it’s not my patch. But the Donbass is clearly *not* Crimea. The Donbass is not chock full of people who think they are Russians–much less explicitly want to be part of Russia. Just pulling up wikipedia suggests, exactly what the fighting there suggests–it’s a muddle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast#Demographics
Strong majority Russian speaking — 74%
Small majority ethnically Ukrainian — 56%
My suspicion is that rural skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)
My bias in to “who owns the place” is that the farmers come first. They are the primary producers. And if you are making a living off your land, you are relatively immobile. (The curse of farmers since settlement–the barbarians ride in and take your stuff … what the “lord” hasn’t already stolen.) In contrast, if you’re a bureaucrat, an engineer, a trademan, a clerk in Donetsk and really feel you are “Russian” and do not like the Ukrainians wanting to join the EU and “be like Poland” … you can just move your ass to Russia and do the same stuff.
(I have the same thoughts about the American separation. Take say Madison (Dane County). Yeah, come the AnotherDad referendum, it will vote to be in Rainbow America. But the joint is basically parasitic. It depends on all the farmers and dairymen and manufacturing employees and owners in the American part of Wisconsin to pay in taxes or come for medical treatment or send their kids to University of Wisconsin. Take away its supporting–and especially taxing–the primary producers and Madison simply can’t support so many Rainbow hued parasites.)
In any case, there’s obviously some reason, that Crimea has been peaceful and the Donbass has not. The two plausible ones are
A) The Russian army is in Crimea, Ukrainians are sacred to mess with it.
B) The Donbass is actually quite divided in sentiment and Crimea is not.
Both are in play, but i’ll note even if you think it is basically “A” and “the people of the Donbass” actually do want to be part of Russia … Putin had accomplished that by sending in the Russian army–openly–in February. (And you’ll note, that did not start a war, nor did it kick off the big Western–sanctions–response. It may fire up these Russia haters in the American establishment, but most people in the European establishment understand Eastern Ukraine is a legit muddle.)
But Putin then trashed any opportunity for that situation to congeal. Putin didn’t say “Hey, this is done. If the Ukrainian army attacks, we’ll respond in kind. When Ukrainians are ready to be reasonable, we can sit down and talk about plebiscites and exchange of populations and getting Ukrainians and Russians into the respective nations they belong in. And then Ukrainians–if they see fit–can go join the EU and Russians who are not interested won’t have to be part of it.”
Instead, Putin invaded.
And the reason Putin didn’t talk about it is because his interest is has never been in helping people have the borders they want–witness Grozny. No Putin’s main interest is being a big swinging dick. Putin is a “what’s mine is mine; what’s yours is mine” kind of guy.
What Sitting Bull simply didn’t understand is that if Bill Sherman was willing to lay waste to the farms and cities of white people, Bill Sherman was not going to shirk from doing the same to a remote group of rebellious American Indians.
What Vladimir Putin doesn’t understand is that if the US is going to allow its major city central districts to be burnt over some drug-addled person finding every excuse to not sit in the back of a police car, the facts-on-the-ground in Bucha mean nothing to the people who want to see Mr. Putin, as it were, Chauvinized.
Was arming ethno-nationlist battalions in order to initiate a coup and provoke conflict in the Donbas an accident? The US knew what it was doing, just like they knew who they were backing in Iraq, which eventually turned into ISIS. Chaos is the goal. All these articles warning about the far-right problem were written years ago, well before the Russian invasion. To be fair, I think the situation is a total hornet’s nest. No good guys to be found anywhere. But the Nazi thing is more substantial than just Russian disinformation, and the US bears a large portion of responsibility for stoking this conflict in the first place.
(2014) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis
(2014) https://www.newsweek.com/evidence-war-crimes-committed-ukrainian-nationalist-volunteers-grows-269604
(2015) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-azov-idUSKBN0ML0XJ20150325
“Appeasing the aggressor will only lead to more aggression. This war will inevitably continue – either until our complete defeat or until our full victory and return to our land in all east Ukraine and Crimea. We believe in the second scenario,” said the 35-year-old from the city of Kharkiv.
Ukraine is fucked.
This is playing into the Russian's game. They take the West's bottom as their starting point and they plumb the depths of depravity from there.
Suppose that heaven forbid you once hit a pedestrian by mistake with your car. In Putin's mode of thinking, this means that he has the right to drive down the road and intentionally mow people down, as many as he feels like hitting. After all, you killed someone with your car - who are you to say that killing people with your car is wrong?
When you are six years old, your parents tell you, "if your friends jump off of a building, that doesn't mean that you should do it too." As the avatar of White Christian morality (supposedly) Putin should aspire to be BETTER than America, not worse. Apparently no one taught Putin that lesson.Replies: @Harry Baldwin
So if Bush is no different than Putin, this means that Saddam Hussein is no different than Zelensky. I disagree.
I don’t follow your logic. Whether Saddam Hussein is a worse leader than Zelensky has nothing to do with our right to start a war and kill tens of thousands of people.
You can say Bush was misinformed. He started a war “accidentally.” Putin may have also been misinformed.
As a lawyer or at least someone highly-conversant in law you certainly appreciate the fact that performing an action where the loss of innocent life is possible, even probable, and performing that action repeatedly makes you culpable- to an extent increasingly indistinguishable from murder, as reflected practically in sentencing- the more often and the more callously you perform that act. The US has been droning for almost 2 decades now. We know that innocent people will inevitably be killed the next time we do it, that when it happens no one will be held accountable, and yet we have no problem doing it all over again next week.
Look, maybe the Russians committed a war crime. Given their lower standards of organization and discipline and endemic alcoholism I concede the chances are greater than 50%. However, we have a corrupt Ukrainian government in collusion with the Deep State seeking to stoke war fever in the West through manufacture of some mediagenic atrocity (cf. Syria) and willing to go to any extent of deception and distortion to do so. They also seem amazingly blasé about the possibility of a nuclear exchange.
I am pro-Russian people, pro-Ukrainian people, pro-US people, against the corrupt elites on all sides who seek to prolong or intensify this conflict for their own special interests. I am also anti-b@llsh!t and will continue to point out the lies, deceptions, and resorts to emotional special pleading used to manipulate us. War is hell and crimes get committed all the time in the process of it. The US Army executed German POW’s in cold blood when they proved inconvenient (cf. THE IRISHMAN). In Korea there are documented incidents of same done to Chinese POW’s and the bodies of Chinese dead were used as bridge ballast during the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir. Does this make the US Army the “bad guys”?
Stay calm, call out the bullsh!t, demand a path to peace.
John Carlyle Berkery, who worked in the Philadelphia mob at the same time as Sheeran, said he was "full of shit." Berkery added, "Frank Sheeran never killed a fly. The only things he ever killed were countless jugs of red wine."Replies: @Abe, @Harry Baldwin
Yup, just like Saddam’s troops tossing babies out of incubators and German soldiers using Belgian babies for bayonet practice.
Keep believing the narrative, Jack. I guess a person who believes in human soap and lampshade stories will believe in anything.
If Putin had managed to arrange a couple million Syrian young men to invade Ukraine, one gets the impression that all our government and "journalist" establishment would be blabbing about the "diversity is our greatest strength" and how "Ukraine needs immigrants". There's little evidence that "the people of the Donbass" want any particular one thing. I don't claim any special knowledge of Ukraine--it's not my patch. But the Donbass is clearly *not* Crimea. The Donbass is not chock full of people who think they are Russians--much less explicitly want to be part of Russia. Just pulling up wikipedia suggests, exactly what the fighting there suggests--it's a muddle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast#Demographics
Strong majority Russian speaking -- 74%
Small majority ethnically Ukrainian -- 56%
My suspicion is that rural skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)
My bias in to "who owns the place" is that the farmers come first. They are the primary producers. And if you are making a living off your land, you are relatively immobile. (The curse of farmers since settlement--the barbarians ride in and take your stuff ... what the "lord" hasn't already stolen.) In contrast, if you're a bureaucrat, an engineer, a trademan, a clerk in Donetsk and really feel you are "Russian" and do not like the Ukrainians wanting to join the EU and "be like Poland" ... you can just move your ass to Russia and do the same stuff.
(I have the same thoughts about the American separation. Take say Madison (Dane County). Yeah, come the AnotherDad referendum, it will vote to be in Rainbow America. But the joint is basically parasitic. It depends on all the farmers and dairymen and manufacturing employees and owners in the American part of Wisconsin to pay in taxes or come for medical treatment or send their kids to University of Wisconsin. Take away its supporting--and especially taxing--the primary producers and Madison simply can't support so many Rainbow hued parasites.)
In any case, there's obviously some reason, that Crimea has been peaceful and the Donbass has not. The two plausible ones are
A) The Russian army is in Crimea, Ukrainians are sacred to mess with it.
B) The Donbass is actually quite divided in sentiment and Crimea is not.
Both are in play, but i'll note even if you think it is basically "A" and "the people of the Donbass" actually do want to be part of Russia ... Putin had accomplished that by sending in the Russian army--openly--in February. (And you'll note, that did not start a war, nor did it kick off the big Western--sanctions--response. It may fire up these Russia haters in the American establishment, but most people in the European establishment understand Eastern Ukraine is a legit muddle.)
But Putin then trashed any opportunity for that situation to congeal. Putin didn't say "Hey, this is done. If the Ukrainian army attacks, we'll respond in kind. When Ukrainians are ready to be reasonable, we can sit down and talk about plebiscites and exchange of populations and getting Ukrainians and Russians into the respective nations they belong in. And then Ukrainians--if they see fit--can go join the EU and Russians who are not interested won't have to be part of it."
Instead, Putin invaded.
And the reason Putin didn't talk about it is because his interest is has never been in helping people have the borders they want--witness Grozny. No Putin's main interest is being a big swinging dick. Putin is a "what's mine is mine; what's yours is mine" kind of guy.Replies: @Abe, @HA, @Almost Missouri, @Anon
If Putin had managed for SPETSNAZ to kidnap Kyle Rittenhouse and then chemically (or hell, the old-fashioned way) castrate him there’d be a red-white-and-blue flag in EVERY artisanal coffeehouse and independent bookstore across this great land of ours right now.
Putin is a totalitarian maniac who needs to be terminated. Time to quit leaving this to future generations, especially since the infection is now so deep in Americas body politic that Republicans are kissing commie butt.
The nuclear bomb got Japan’s mind right, and it’s time Russia got the shock treatment. Oh, they can fire back? Right. Look how they’ve looted their own boots on the ground military. And you think they actually spent the rubles on ICBM testing and maintenance? Russian nuclear planners would be best to consult Wile E. Coyote’s launch of his Acme Rockets.
Look, I understand that the 2nd Amendment is your thing like abolishing public education is Abolish Public Education’s thing. But honest to goodness, Ukraine’s problems with the Russian Army and its tanks and specifically the problems of the recently deceased citizens of Bucha (individually or collectively) would not be solved if handgun ownership was legal in Ukraine. You are off on a tangent.
“Wars are bad.”
All wars, large and small, are usually fought by clueless suckers organized by malignant elites. Ukraine is a classic case.
But sometimes killing is necessary. The above malignant elites, for example.
US troops shot a lot of people at roadblocks in Iraq. Mark Twain confessed to doing the same thing when he was an aspiring Confederate bushwhacker.
I'll give you a Holocaust morality play:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AP_4803040130.jpg
Were these guys also "more like the SS"?Replies: @Jack D
I wasn’t the one who brought up the SS. Steve did.
The title of his post was Bucha: More Like the SS or the LAPD?
As between the two, I pick SS. Which one do you vote for? Does the Russian Army remind you more of the LAPD?
Those Israelis with rifles are all well and good fighting against Fedayeen, but as you point out in your other post, Russia has a (fairly) modern army with tanks and such, against which rifles are suicidal. Unless you think that the Ukrainians should have been keeping Javelins in their gun cabinets, the lack of a 2nd Amendment in the Ukrainian Constitution is not really their problem.
As for who thought the 2nd Amendment applied to the National Guard, that would be the Supreme Court for most of the post Civil War period. It wasn’t until Heller (2008) that the court firmly recognized an individual right to keep and bear arms.
BTW, since a Javelin is something that you can bear in your arms, does the 2nd Amendment extend to the private ownership of Javelins? Asking for a friend.
Look, maybe the Russians committed a war crime. Given their lower standards of organization and discipline and endemic alcoholism I concede the chances are greater than 50%. However, we have a corrupt Ukrainian government in collusion with the Deep State seeking to stoke war fever in the West through manufacture of some mediagenic atrocity (cf. Syria) and willing to go to any extent of deception and distortion to do so. They also seem amazingly blasé about the possibility of a nuclear exchange.
I am pro-Russian people, pro-Ukrainian people, pro-US people, against the corrupt elites on all sides who seek to prolong or intensify this conflict for their own special interests. I am also anti-b@llsh!t and will continue to point out the lies, deceptions, and resorts to emotional special pleading used to manipulate us. War is hell and crimes get committed all the time in the process of it. The US Army executed German POW’s in cold blood when they proved inconvenient (cf. THE IRISHMAN). In Korea there are documented incidents of same done to Chinese POW’s and the bodies of Chinese dead were used as bridge ballast during the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir. Does this make the US Army the “bad guys”?
Stay calm, call out the bullsh!t, demand a path to peace.Replies: @Jack D
LOL. A Hollywood movie is your source. Frank Sheeran was a bullshitter and a drunk and maybe beat up a few guys for the union in his younger days. But the idea that he was this James Bond type hitman who went around killing people by the dozen either in the war or after it was just a tall tale of the type that drunken Irishmen love to spin.
John Carlyle Berkery, who worked in the Philadelphia mob at the same time as Sheeran, said he was “full of shit.” Berkery added, “Frank Sheeran never killed a fly. The only things he ever killed were countless jugs of red wine.”
My father was a WW II veteran and he told me about one particular GI who on two occasions shot and killed a German prisoner he was supposed to be escorting to the rear. "He tried to escape," was the reason he gave, but my father believed he just liked shooting Germans.
Fake propaganda like the Ghost of Kiev and the Snake River 13. We don’t know what really happened or who did what.
But just on cue, we have another “war atrocity” that our lying media pushes. Reminds me of the claim that the Iraqis were throwing Kuwaiti babies out of incubators. Totally fake. People aren’t falling for it.
That one or even several people were killed by Russian troops doesn’t logically contradict the possibility that some of the alleged ‘hundreds’ of bodies found were Ukrainian citizens who failed object strongly enough to the Russian invasion. If you follow any pro-Russian (but non-government) channels on Twitter or Telegram you will get an idea of the thuggishness of significant numbers of Ukrainian regulars and irregulars and paramilitaries.
LOL!
Jack, if you ended up like our friend Oleg, you would be getting off easy.
I specifically mentioned “civilian ownership of combat rifles (and ammo)”. (You, a liar, brought up “handguns” as a red herring to slander White America by citing America’s “very high rate of hand gun homicide by white country standards”.)
Why are you against civilians owning combat rifles and ammo? Especially in a country neighboring a “criminal regime” as you put it?
Your “goverment monopoly on force” doesn’t jibe with your (fake) tears about Bucha.
“BTW, since a Javelin is something that you can bear in your arms, does the 2nd Amendment extend to the private ownership of Javelins? Asking for a friend.”
Yes.
The Russians tried for years to get the Kievan government to stop shelling the ethnic Russians in Donetsk and Lugansk.
I am glad Russia has now directed its efforts to the east and south. In fact I think there’s a good change the whole Kiev thing was a head fake to keep the Kievan forces tied down. I’ve said that for a while now.
War is Bad is the new Faber College motto. Borders are good–that’s why sometimes you have to go to war to defend them, alas.
“Yes, George W. Bush IS a war criminal …”
Even an Englishman can find the truth on occasion. But don’t forget Cheney, Rummy, and the PNAC Straussians who are currently activated to prolong the war in Ukraine. Putin’s gotten pretty much what he wanted but the US and UK neocons in government and media are actively sabotaging diplomatic entreaties.
Except for the packed flights of military aged males leaving the country for a certain country in the Levant, nonsensically to avoid a racial pogrom by an army fighting a ‘denazification’ campaign. No leapfrogging loyalties from Senor Zelensky…
John Carlyle Berkery, who worked in the Philadelphia mob at the same time as Sheeran, said he was "full of shit." Berkery added, "Frank Sheeran never killed a fly. The only things he ever killed were countless jugs of red wine."Replies: @Abe, @Harry Baldwin
Jesus, Jack, just take the L-
On Desperate Ground: The Marines at The Reservoir by Hampton Sides
Of course I know how a criminal regime operates; I live in the U.S.
Are you OK with private citizens owning Javelins? Because even rifles (WITH ammo) are worthless against tanks.
Again, you have set this up as heads I win, tails you lose situation. If Oleg and his neighbors are all executed by the Russians because they are bearing rifles (WITH ammo) then the Russian are justified in executing them as irregulars out of uniform – it’s not even a war crime. If they DON’T get rifles (which BTW are legal in Ukraine), then they were stupid for not resisting and got what was coming to them. Either way they are dead.
https://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/cp/ukraine
The reason I mentioned handguns was not to denigrate (are you still allowed to use that word) fine white Americans but because ownership of rifles is legal in Ukraine so I assumed you were talking about their restrictive handgun laws.
I repeat that lack of rifles (AND ammunition) or bad gun laws in Ukraine or my musings about the monopoly of force in another context several years ago or whatever your obsession is has nothing to do with the topic at hand which is that the Russians are executing unarmed non-combatants in cold blood.
Oh, look-- this one is in Russian colors!
https://lavinerestorations.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/1G7A2131_Sized-400x284.jpg
Don't see one in in Ukraine's colors, but this comes close:
https://cdn.ebizautos.media/used-1971-amc-javelin_pierre_cardon--8031-21287949-1-1024.jpg
John Carlyle Berkery, who worked in the Philadelphia mob at the same time as Sheeran, said he was "full of shit." Berkery added, "Frank Sheeran never killed a fly. The only things he ever killed were countless jugs of red wine."Replies: @Abe, @Harry Baldwin
I agree that it’s weak to cite a movie as a source. However, Abe’s point is correct. Read memoirs by WW II veterans and you’ll find that when our troops were advancing rapidly, German soldiers who surrendered were sometimes executed on the spot because GIs could not be spared to escort them to the rear. It would have halted their mission.
My father was a WW II veteran and he told me about one particular GI who on two occasions shot and killed a German prisoner he was supposed to be escorting to the rear. “He tried to escape,” was the reason he gave, but my father believed he just liked shooting Germans.
Twinkie (and I) replied to your original post, which wasn’t about tank warfare, but hands-on interpersonal violence:
The execution as described above literally could not have happened if the people were armed (with combat rifles) and resisted. Maybe the Russians could have leveled their house (with tanks) from a distance but that’s not “like the SS” specifically. So—it still stands that you would rather the execution have taken place than Ukraine citizens have combat rifles to resist such executions. You would rather people suffer so you can complain about perpetrators.
Those “Israelis”(Israel didn’t exist yet) were Irgun and notorious for bombing the British and killing Arab civilians in order to terrorize the rest to flee. They later lost a little civil war against the Haganah and was absorbed into the IDF. Their leaders later formed the core of the Likud Party.
I don’t do false choices, so neither. The Russian Army reminds me of… the Russian Army.
No, yet again. There was no National Guard until the 20th Century.
You know a Javelin is useless against a rifleman, right? Just as an ATGM-wielding hunter-killer team can ambush vehicles, a few infantrymen with small arms can ambush the hunter-killer team and take the ATGMs. If you need more explanations, just ask instead of posing like you know anything about weaponry.
But here you are just trying to dodge our gracious host's perfectly valid question because it leads to further implications that you don't like. First you try to deflect it onto me even though it was Steve's question and then you say the question is not valid (you should take that up with Steve - how dare he post false choices!) - you'll do anything not to give a straight answer. Others are screaming false flag or the Ukrainians do that too or the Americans do that too or my dog does that too. Anything not to have to deal with the implications of another genocide in the heart of Europe.Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Twinkie
If Putin had managed to arrange a couple million Syrian young men to invade Ukraine, one gets the impression that all our government and "journalist" establishment would be blabbing about the "diversity is our greatest strength" and how "Ukraine needs immigrants". There's little evidence that "the people of the Donbass" want any particular one thing. I don't claim any special knowledge of Ukraine--it's not my patch. But the Donbass is clearly *not* Crimea. The Donbass is not chock full of people who think they are Russians--much less explicitly want to be part of Russia. Just pulling up wikipedia suggests, exactly what the fighting there suggests--it's a muddle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast#Demographics
Strong majority Russian speaking -- 74%
Small majority ethnically Ukrainian -- 56%
My suspicion is that rural skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)
My bias in to "who owns the place" is that the farmers come first. They are the primary producers. And if you are making a living off your land, you are relatively immobile. (The curse of farmers since settlement--the barbarians ride in and take your stuff ... what the "lord" hasn't already stolen.) In contrast, if you're a bureaucrat, an engineer, a trademan, a clerk in Donetsk and really feel you are "Russian" and do not like the Ukrainians wanting to join the EU and "be like Poland" ... you can just move your ass to Russia and do the same stuff.
(I have the same thoughts about the American separation. Take say Madison (Dane County). Yeah, come the AnotherDad referendum, it will vote to be in Rainbow America. But the joint is basically parasitic. It depends on all the farmers and dairymen and manufacturing employees and owners in the American part of Wisconsin to pay in taxes or come for medical treatment or send their kids to University of Wisconsin. Take away its supporting--and especially taxing--the primary producers and Madison simply can't support so many Rainbow hued parasites.)
In any case, there's obviously some reason, that Crimea has been peaceful and the Donbass has not. The two plausible ones are
A) The Russian army is in Crimea, Ukrainians are sacred to mess with it.
B) The Donbass is actually quite divided in sentiment and Crimea is not.
Both are in play, but i'll note even if you think it is basically "A" and "the people of the Donbass" actually do want to be part of Russia ... Putin had accomplished that by sending in the Russian army--openly--in February. (And you'll note, that did not start a war, nor did it kick off the big Western--sanctions--response. It may fire up these Russia haters in the American establishment, but most people in the European establishment understand Eastern Ukraine is a legit muddle.)
But Putin then trashed any opportunity for that situation to congeal. Putin didn't say "Hey, this is done. If the Ukrainian army attacks, we'll respond in kind. When Ukrainians are ready to be reasonable, we can sit down and talk about plebiscites and exchange of populations and getting Ukrainians and Russians into the respective nations they belong in. And then Ukrainians--if they see fit--can go join the EU and Russians who are not interested won't have to be part of it."
Instead, Putin invaded.
And the reason Putin didn't talk about it is because his interest is has never been in helping people have the borders they want--witness Grozny. No Putin's main interest is being a big swinging dick. Putin is a "what's mine is mine; what's yours is mine" kind of guy.Replies: @Abe, @HA, @Almost Missouri, @Anon
“My suspicion is that rural [areas of the East] skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)”
All that, as you generally implied, shifted significantly (away from the pro-Putin camp) even before Putin invaded — and then probably changed even more drastically afterwards, after the invasion. Even the parties that openly collaborated with the Russians denounced the invasion (at least publicly) so as not to alienate their supporters, which should tell you a lot about where their supporters are leaning. So much for the “Putin just wanted to save the children of Donbass from being shelled by neo-Nazis” narrative. The fanboys keep pretending it’s true. As for those allegedly being shelled? Evidently, they’re not buying it.
And even before the invasion, Putin did a good job of deRussifying even the areas of the country that had earlier voted in his stooge Yanukovych to be president:
I don't follow your logic. Whether Saddam Hussein is a worse leader than Zelensky has nothing to do with our right to start a war and kill tens of thousands of people.
You can say Bush was misinformed. He started a war "accidentally." Putin may have also been misinformed.Replies: @Anon7
Bush justified the Iraq War by stating that the Iraqis had WMD and they sheltered, trained and assisted terrorists that operated in the United States. The Bush Administration stated:
Putin justified invading Ukraine by stating that Ukraine already has what amounts to a proxy NATO army trained and armed by NATO and the US and that Neo Nazis pervade the Ukraine government and its army and security forces and have carried out acts of genocide against the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass.
Both Bush and Putin argued that preemptive war was a reasonable response to an imminent threat.
Of course, we now know that Iraq had no WMD, and they offered little if any assistance to Al Qaeda. Ukraine has one of the largest and best-trained standing armies in Europe, and has a serious Neo Nazi problem. Does that justify invasion? Pick your side and argue it.
It really is a tragedy that almost nobody in the West or even in Steve’s comment section understand Russia. Yes, fortunately there are some neutral or even pro-Russian commentators here, but even they are almost all to a man overwhelmingly working with a false Western framework and Western assumptions.
Russia at the start of the war never intended to capture Kiev, or any major cities outside of the Donbass. They merely wanted to put pressure on Kiev and some other major cities like Kharkiv to force the Ukrainians to commit troops there. Their only goals at the start of the war were to protect the independent nations of the Donetsk Peoples Republic and Luhansk Peoples Republic, to get Ukraine to stop attacking them and bring peace to the region, and to prevent The Ukraine from joining NATO and the EU for at least one year, the rest of 2022.
Amazingly the war has gone right in almost every way, far better than even the Russians could have expected it to go. Putin was planning to have a long grueling war lasting at least 5 months long just to secure the independence of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, the Luhansk Peoples Republic, and keep The Ukraine from joining NATO for a year.
But now it looks like the war has gone so unexpectedly well that they will take Kiev within one month, and either have a Ukrainian government that’s 100% allied with Russia, or even just annex the country to the Russian federation. The people of Ukraine have shown themselves, outside of the fascists and neonazis serving in the militia “army”, to be 55-70% in favor of Russia during this war, more than even Russian analysts have expected. While there’s been a few civilian deaths the number of non-combatant civilian deaths caused by Russians can be counted on two hands, while there have been hundreds caused by Ukrainian soldiers.
It is one of the best fought and executed wars in the last 200 years by Russia, and one of the most merciful.
That's awesome! Praise be! In that case, if what you say is all true, then mission accomplished. That means all the Russians can just scurry back on home right now and receive their hero's welcome. Putin can assure them that he's gotten everything he wanted from this war and more, and it was all a smashing success. And who's going to question that? Navalny? Zhirinovsky?
And I'm sure that from this point onward, the people of Mariupol and cities like that will fondly cherish the memory of the last time their brothers from up North ventured down for a visit. Thanks so much, all you Russian "brothers"!Replies: @Anonymous
Russia's got a big problem since the murders seem to have happened when these towns were under Russian occupation. Not likely Ukrainian death squads could be roaming around selecting collaborators for execution when the Russian Army owns the streets.Replies: @LondonBob, @J.Ross, @Anon7, @Dacian Julien Soros
There are two reasons why the SS eventually decided to switch from killing on location to centralized extermination.
First, the Jews were extremely loved by everyone else, so there was a chance that the whole Polish village, or Ukrainian village, or Romanian village, would rise up in defense of their beloved Jews.
Second, the SS were extremely concerned with erasing any evidence that would lead to them. Like the whole German people, the SS was working on the premise that, any time soon, they will be defeated and judged by international tribunals. The Germans wouldn’t even start a war unless they knew they expected to be defeated. For most of the time, they were busy making up alibies, in order to avoid the US prosecutors.
I am kind of surprised Putin is not as scared of US prosecutors as the SS was.
OT: UPDATE: Sacramento Police Say at Least 5 Gunmen Involved in Gang-Related Mass Shooting
Five gunmen?!?! That would explain the higher than average kill rates for black mass shootings.
Has there ever been in the past a gang altercation that involved that many gunmen?
Daviyonne. Another black criminal act, another black name no one’s ever heard of before.
I also wonder what poor 57-year-old Melinda Davis was doing there at 2am.
——
SACRAMENTO (CBS SF) — Police in Sacramento released additional info Wednesday on their investigation into Sunday morning’s horrific mass shooting, announcing the number of shooting suspects has risen to at least five and that the incident appears to be gang related.
In a release issued late Wednesday morning, the Sacramento Police Department said detectives were continuing to piece together details regarding the April 3 mass casualty incident that injured 18 victims, including six fatally.
“Evidence in the case indicates that at least five shooters fired guns during the shooting, and that an exchange of gunfire took place between at least two groups of men,” the release stated.
While three people have been arrested in connection with the shooting — brothers Smiley Martin and Dandrae Martin as well as Daviyonne Dawson — so far the arrests have been described by authorities as related to the Sunday morning shooting with none of the suspects in custody facing homicide charges.
Police noted that as detectives continue to identify shooters and weapons involved in the deadly Sunday morning incident, the number of identified shooters may grow to more than five.
Police also said there are more indications “that gang violence is at the center of this tragedy.”
Authorities said they were unable to elaborate on exactly what the gang affiliation of the individuals involved might be as of Wednesday, gangs and gang violence are inseparable from the events that drove these shootings.
“This tragedy downtown is a very public example of what families in many of our neighborhoods know too well,” Sacramento Police Chief Kathy Lester said in the release. “The suffering inflicted by gang violence does not limit itself to gang members. It spills over to claim and shatter innocent lives and harm our entire community.”
Police say they continue to receive a steady flow of information from the public on the deadly shooting. As of Wednesday, nearly 200 videos, photographs and other pieces of evidence have been submitted and are being analyzed. The information is coming through our community evidence portal utilizing a QR code embedded in department websites and social media, and shared by news media.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2022/04/06/update-sacramento-police-say-at-least-5-gunmen-involved-in-gang-related-mass-shooting/
No. But tanks aren’t committing the ‘SS crimes’ that have got you unconvincingly all worked up.
You set up your own loss, Jack. Your anti-execution position is inconsistent with your “government monopoly on force” stance.
They cannot be “executed” if they are armed and resisting. Sure, they can be killed in combat—that’s a normal part of war. My advice—kill your enemies and don’t get captured. YMMV.
What kind are legal? I specifically wrote “combat rifles” which in Ukraine would mostly be AK-variants. Your source mentions unspecified “rifles and shotguns”.
I literally specified “combat rifles”, liar.
That literally could not happen if the population was armed with combat rifles.
But you would rather the civilians not own the rifles. Sick.
I did not learn much about the Spanish-American War in school, but if you are interested in a good read about the war, I will recommend “The War Lovers” by Evan Thomas. A war sought, actually lusted after, by Teddy Roosevelt, William Randolph Hearst and Henry Cabot Lodge. Who doesn’t love a “good war?”
The political realignment Trump started is amazing to watch. Unfortunately it seems to appear less strongly in economic populism in the GOP than it does the reinvigorated migration of neocons back to the Dems.
Sean Penn in 2022 is on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox News complaining the US is too hesitant to use nukes against Russia.
Imagine trying to explain this to Sean Penn circa 2003.
The implication to me is that Penn believes (If not rationally then emotionally) Russiagate and thinks nuking Russia is just what has to be done in revenge for Trump winning in 2016.
You are right. Why would that woman be an actress? Was Nayirah an actress?
When Stormy Daniels said “oh, Donnie, you are so strong”, she meant it!
Jack D is not dumb, but he is unwise. He should learn to cut his losses and not keep digging when he is in a hole. But that goes for many people who overestimate their own intelligence and/or those whose pride (“I have to win!”) exceeds their knowledge/capabilities.
What was Bucha called in the Soviet days?
Yes and there men in New York without criminal records who were being stopped and questioned, some of those individuals had it happen every single week. In Normandy they demolished every church tower because they became convinced that was where any shots were coming from. The Russians never saw the Ukrainians shooting at them. In a war zone after the invaders burnt out tin coffins litter a street a man under 60 out of his house is a target by virtue of Zelensky’s own decree, his government’s instructions, and the type of warfare Ukrainians chose to wage. That street with the bodies in the street was down to one sniper
Since 2014 there have been are hundreds of thousands of refugees from Donbass in Russia, and they have many very unpleasant stories; it is not just propaganda. Ukraine is not genocidal, but it is an integral nationalist state in which an ethnic Russian who won the presidency twice was first prevented from taking office (2004) and then deposed in a coup (2014). Ukrainian integral nationalism is different to Hitler’s (or Meir Kahane’s) brand, but it’s not entirely unfair unfair to call it ‘Nazi’.
Haditha killings were quite deliberate killings of bystanders, people in a car and two nearby houses including elderly women and children. just because they were handy. They killed the first Iraqis they saw. though the were innocent and had obeyed instructions. Any Iraqi running could be shot dead, and how many times was that explanation false but not exposed as such?. The Russian army units in Ukraine may have a lot of such incidents but they have taken far higher casualties than any US force did in Iraq.
In the Yeltsin era America was virtually directing his election and America and Germany were paying off Russian government to compromise the national interest by means of international loan that were disappearing into personal Swiss bank accounts. Putin rose to power because he was an relatively honest and unambitious administrator. There little reason to see his analysis of America’s actions as idiosyncratic for a Russian. Ought America to have not pushed Russia so hard, AOTBE i would say America did the right think, but the trouble is it is not just the US and Russia, there is China. When Medvedev said the other day ‘The goal is for the sake of the peace of future generations of Ukrainians themselves and the opportunity to finally build an open Eurasia – from Lisbon to Vladivostok’ he is really talking about the export of Chinese products. The crucial criterion for following containment as a strategy was that George F. Kennan made a central pillar of hisargument, the Soviet Union had weakness that would only become more crippling as time went on. That is not true of China because their expansion will be commercial-economic so military containment of China in the way Russia was contained is going to be difficult enough without leaving Russia with a feeling of fear and loathing toward America for a total humiliation in Ukraine as things are going Russia is likely to suffer a catastrophic defeat and America what in the not tooo distant future will be seen as a pyrrhic victory.
There are evil bastards in every army along with others who act according to justice no matter what. Most Russian soldiers are like everone else dependent on the circumstances.The Russian army’s officers are like everything else in their army not very good and the bad apples may be not kept under control, but I don’t think you can make out that Russians are bad people or even that their state is misdirected. Putin in my opinion was well aware that invading Ukraine would being his leadership and even the existence of the Russian state into question. It beggars belief that he thought he could conquer a de facto member of Nato with 40 million people without getting a reaction very much like he has got. I happen to think that Putin knew it would be an extreme risk, but felt it was right for Russia in the final analysis. So he decided to do it, no matter what.
The CIA ran a torture facility in the middle of Bucharest. Care to explain how could this be an “unintentional” mistake?
There is an apocryphal story that the L.A. Times once killed a woman’s dog – literally. Supposedly the delivery person threw the paper on the woman’s lawn and inadvertently hit the dog, killing him instantly.
(This was back during the days when the Sunday paper ran several hundred pages.)
But evidently someone at the Times investigated the matter and determined that the delivery person ran over the dog.
Agree, except for maybe the first clause. 🙂
If Putin had managed to arrange a couple million Syrian young men to invade Ukraine, one gets the impression that all our government and "journalist" establishment would be blabbing about the "diversity is our greatest strength" and how "Ukraine needs immigrants". There's little evidence that "the people of the Donbass" want any particular one thing. I don't claim any special knowledge of Ukraine--it's not my patch. But the Donbass is clearly *not* Crimea. The Donbass is not chock full of people who think they are Russians--much less explicitly want to be part of Russia. Just pulling up wikipedia suggests, exactly what the fighting there suggests--it's a muddle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast#Demographics
Strong majority Russian speaking -- 74%
Small majority ethnically Ukrainian -- 56%
My suspicion is that rural skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)
My bias in to "who owns the place" is that the farmers come first. They are the primary producers. And if you are making a living off your land, you are relatively immobile. (The curse of farmers since settlement--the barbarians ride in and take your stuff ... what the "lord" hasn't already stolen.) In contrast, if you're a bureaucrat, an engineer, a trademan, a clerk in Donetsk and really feel you are "Russian" and do not like the Ukrainians wanting to join the EU and "be like Poland" ... you can just move your ass to Russia and do the same stuff.
(I have the same thoughts about the American separation. Take say Madison (Dane County). Yeah, come the AnotherDad referendum, it will vote to be in Rainbow America. But the joint is basically parasitic. It depends on all the farmers and dairymen and manufacturing employees and owners in the American part of Wisconsin to pay in taxes or come for medical treatment or send their kids to University of Wisconsin. Take away its supporting--and especially taxing--the primary producers and Madison simply can't support so many Rainbow hued parasites.)
In any case, there's obviously some reason, that Crimea has been peaceful and the Donbass has not. The two plausible ones are
A) The Russian army is in Crimea, Ukrainians are sacred to mess with it.
B) The Donbass is actually quite divided in sentiment and Crimea is not.
Both are in play, but i'll note even if you think it is basically "A" and "the people of the Donbass" actually do want to be part of Russia ... Putin had accomplished that by sending in the Russian army--openly--in February. (And you'll note, that did not start a war, nor did it kick off the big Western--sanctions--response. It may fire up these Russia haters in the American establishment, but most people in the European establishment understand Eastern Ukraine is a legit muddle.)
But Putin then trashed any opportunity for that situation to congeal. Putin didn't say "Hey, this is done. If the Ukrainian army attacks, we'll respond in kind. When Ukrainians are ready to be reasonable, we can sit down and talk about plebiscites and exchange of populations and getting Ukrainians and Russians into the respective nations they belong in. And then Ukrainians--if they see fit--can go join the EU and Russians who are not interested won't have to be part of it."
Instead, Putin invaded.
And the reason Putin didn't talk about it is because his interest is has never been in helping people have the borders they want--witness Grozny. No Putin's main interest is being a big swinging dick. Putin is a "what's mine is mine; what's yours is mine" kind of guy.Replies: @Abe, @HA, @Almost Missouri, @Anon
Belarusian President Lukashenko did more or less exactly that last year to Poland: scrape up a bunch of third world migrants and launch them against the EU’s border. There was an iSteve take on it a month ago. And yes, the “journalist” establishment did manage to weave it into their standard white supremacy narrative.
Well, there’s the 2014 referendum where they voted for independence. Of course, the usual suspects claimed vote fraud, but the result was broadly in line with what independent polls showed, so whatever the irregularities were, they were less than what put the current US regime in power.
Again, not my patch. I've read the wiki on the referendum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
The very fact that there were a bunch of local elected official in Donetsk who were looking to succeed from it to join a neighboring oblast, and the results of the counter-referendum in Ukrainian held territory suggest exactly what i said--a muddle.
~~
AFAICT there is a group of ethnic Russians who would like to join Russia. There are large groups ethnic Russians and some Ukrainians in favor of independence and (perhaps an even larger) group picking up more ethnic Ukrainians in favor of some sort autonomy within Ukraine. And some Ukrainians in favor of just being in Ukraine.
Again, not my patch. But i'm confident it is not the same as the situation in Crimea, where the population was 80%+ Russian speaking, a strong majority ethnically Russia, with some Ukrainians a dash of Tartar sauce. Whatever you think of that referendum's numbers (dubious), the result--joining Russia--squares with both the polling and election results, before the Russian takeover.
The Donbass in contrast is a muddle and requires tact and goodwill--mutual respect--to sort out. That hasn't been overflowing from the Ukrainian government, but it really has been absent from Putin's behavior.
And again, Putin had invaded those places and--if there was any legitimacy to any of these concerns--could have just sat there with those regions now under the control of the Russian armed forces and waited for the Ukrainians to come around or started trying to sort it out himself. His shitty little war has done nothing but kill a lot of people and probably alienate a huge number of the people he claims to "protect".
There
I am glad Russia has now directed its efforts to the east and south. In fact I think there's a good change the whole Kiev thing was a head fake to keep the Kievan forces tied down. I've said that for a while now.Replies: @HA
“The Russians tried for years to get the Kievan government to stop shelling the ethnic Russians in Donetsk and Lugansk.”
As I noted in an upthread comment, that’s not a narrative that holds much traction in Donetsk and Lugansk, outside the paid spokesmen of the collaborationist-parties inside those breakaway-regions. Even those pro-Russian parties condemned this invasion (at least publicly) so as not to antagonize their membership.
That should tell you all you need to know that even their own voters don’t buy the “neo-Nazis are shelling the children of Donbass!” narrative the way it has been framed in the Russian media and its various re-broadcasters. They see the whole Donbass mess as much more of a Putin problem.
The Borderland has had to actively prevent military age (widely understood) males from leaving the country. The Borderland has it's thugs shooting military aged men trying to leave conflict zones with their families. The Borderland has had it's thugs held civilians in a city under siege, at times at gunpoint, in order to use them as human shields.
The Borderland has repeatedly lied in its propaganda campaigns, from Snake Island to today. It has tried with its lies to drag my country (yours?) into a war with a nuclear armed foe.
In contrast, the brave soldiers of Donetsk and Lugansk, ill equipped, have tied up significant forces of the Kievan government, and indeed even advanced both to link up with Russian forces in the South and on the fortified positions from which the Borderlanders have rained down indiscriminate artillery fusillades for eight years, on and off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fHHWj0aVKwReplies: @HA
https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2022/04/05/eighty-one-students-in-anthropology-class-referred-to-executive-committee-for-academic-dishonestyReplies: @Jim Christian
Removed. 404.
A friend of mine briefly considered joining the Ukrainian foreign legion. (My friend is fairly based by millennial standards, but he got caught up in the frenzy in the early days of the war.)
He has an extensive collection of firearms, but he was informed that he would not be allowed to bring any of his own weapons. This lessened his enthusiasm tremendously.
“Well, there’s the 2014 referendum where they voted for independence.”
And a sizable shift away from Russia and Putin since then. Donbass, under Putin’s henchmen, has not become the utopia the fanboys make it out to be and it has become increasingly clear that the primary problem for that is the thuggery of those INSIDE its barbed wire borders, as opposed to any alleged shelling from outside.
Come on, even the collaborations parties condemned Putin’s invasion. Even the more deluded fanboys admitted as much. That should tell you something.
Exactly! Everyone who lives comfortably inside modern America lives on conquered land.
And we could say the same thing about every nation on earth.
Russia at the start of the war never intended to capture Kiev, or any major cities outside of the Donbass. They merely wanted to put pressure on Kiev and some other major cities like Kharkiv to force the Ukrainians to commit troops there. Their only goals at the start of the war were to protect the independent nations of the Donetsk Peoples Republic and Luhansk Peoples Republic, to get Ukraine to stop attacking them and bring peace to the region, and to prevent The Ukraine from joining NATO and the EU for at least one year, the rest of 2022.
Amazingly the war has gone right in almost every way, far better than even the Russians could have expected it to go. Putin was planning to have a long grueling war lasting at least 5 months long just to secure the independence of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, the Luhansk Peoples Republic, and keep The Ukraine from joining NATO for a year.
But now it looks like the war has gone so unexpectedly well that they will take Kiev within one month, and either have a Ukrainian government that's 100% allied with Russia, or even just annex the country to the Russian federation. The people of Ukraine have shown themselves, outside of the fascists and neonazis serving in the militia "army", to be 55-70% in favor of Russia during this war, more than even Russian analysts have expected. While there's been a few civilian deaths the number of non-combatant civilian deaths caused by Russians can be counted on two hands, while there have been hundreds caused by Ukrainian soldiers.
It is one of the best fought and executed wars in the last 200 years by Russia, and one of the most merciful.Replies: @HA
“It is one of the best fought and executed wars in the last 200 years by Russia, and one of the most merciful.”
That’s awesome! Praise be! In that case, if what you say is all true, then mission accomplished. That means all the Russians can just scurry back on home right now and receive their hero’s welcome. Putin can assure them that he’s gotten everything he wanted from this war and more, and it was all a smashing success. And who’s going to question that? Navalny? Zhirinovsky?
And I’m sure that from this point onward, the people of Mariupol and cities like that will fondly cherish the memory of the last time their brothers from up North ventured down for a visit. Thanks so much, all you Russian “brothers”!
Does anyone else think that “itchy trigger finger” is probably a corruption of “twitchy trigger finger”?
On the cyclist, I think that Russian soldiers in Ukraine are a pretty miserable bunch. Sure, they are “professional soldiers,” not conscripts, but how many conscripts do you think were pressured into signing contracts? I’ll bet the Russian army can put a lot of pressure on 18-year-olds away from home for their first time and in a military camp in a hostile country, don’t you think?
There’s also the matter of the low prestige and living standards of the Russian military. At least under the Soviets, kids of respectable Party members did not end up thrown in with the regular draftees. I’ll bet Russia today is corrupt enough that bribes can keep your kid from being drafted. As for the pros, I am strongly willing to bet they are a pretty scuzzy bunch. Men with brains or the ability to learn a skill get out of the army as quickly as they can.
Lots of miserable people want to make other people miserable too. So, they might have shot the cyclist just because they saw someone who was doing something normal.
There’s also the matter of what soldiers are told. I’ve been told by people who were in Iraq II that they were not given “both sides” information. Saddam was a monster, he had weapons of mass destruction, and they were liberating the Iraqi people. “Inside every raghead, there is an American trying to get out.” if you think about the civilian mass psychosis in the run-up to Iraq and combine that with the military’s near-total control of the flow of information to soldiers, then you can see how the Russian soldiers might think all the Ukrainians are Nazis (who are also their brothers).
…..you’re joking ,right…….2008-2016 and right now?
Name one war where the US went to war over its borders.
I could be wrong but I believe the correct answer is still zero.
Totally. One almost thinks that Trump’s tacky, gold-plated, rude-dude meets racist uncle persona so perfectly calculated to trigger our ugly nerd power elite (or whatever passes for one) is so incongruous in conjunction with his principled commitment to Russian detente (and why stick through thick-n-thin with this one side-issue out of any of them?) that the only explanation for it must be that Trump is a brilliant concoction of the CIA, designed to make normally counter-cultural, peanick sh!tlib normies stop worrying and love the bomb as otherwise the bullies win and kindness is not everything.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway More advance chicken counting/ speculation. Let's try to get the Russians to stop killing now. Calibrating the aid to give the Ukrainians just barely enough to stop the Russian advances is just getting more people killed, Russian soldiers as well as Ukrainians. I think the Ukrainians themselves would be overjoyed if they could just get back to the pre-February borders. If the war was going that badly, Putin would suddenly become more interested in a negotiated cease fire. Is there some contradiction here? Show me the evidence that the people who were murdered were enemy combatants. We have evidence that they are dead. Not even the Russians claim that they were combatants - their claim (lie) is that they didn't kill them at all. You can't be holier than the Pope and invent better, more convincing lies for them.Replies: @Sean, @Almost Missouri
According to President Zelensky, every Ukrainian man 18-60 is a combatant.
(According the Western media, every Ukrainian woman 14-80 is a combatant and superhero, but I doubt the Russians take that seriously, to their dismay perhaps.)
There was a long article in the WSJ about a woman mayor of the Borderland state who appears to have been executed by Russian forces with her husband and adult son. Horrid. Exept that the reporters can't stop themselves from narrating her heroic exploits in informing Borderland forces of Russian positions via cell phone and her husband's doing the same. Which of course makes them combatants. (Don't know about the son)
Oh good. I’m glad you cleared that up. What’s next for you? You gonna get up from behind the keyboard and go make a sandwich or something?
(According the Western media, every Ukrainian woman 14-80 is a combatant and superhero, but I doubt the Russians take that seriously, to their dismay perhaps.)Replies: @Jack D, @stari_momak
That’s not how it works under the Geneva convention. You’re saying that genocide is OK.
The Ukrainian commander-in-chief created a morally ambiguous situation for the Russian military. That doesn't make every Ukrainian man a target, but it does make them potential combatants.Replies: @Jack D
Fascinating how you’ve been bamboozled into believing that the Ukraine and its people are decidedly pro-GloboHomoNATO.
“No body, no crime” rules, there were no remains of Dorner to be found in the burnt out cabin.
Dorner’s DL was found on a sidewalk near the San Diego airport, much like Saudi passports falling from the sky on 9/11/2001.
That’s what the SS did to the Warsaw Ghetto. In any case they would have been just as dead.
“People in America live a sheltered life. They literally cannot imagine how a criminal regime operates. There is nothing in the American experience you can liken this to.”
Ever heard of the imposition of slavery by the criminal regime known as slaveholders? I was told by the fine commenters here that your own brethren partook in such a dastardly activity. Then again, what do they know, right?
You mean morally criminal - and in your eyes/opinion?
Perfectly legal as far as the laws of the jurisdictions. And not even morally criminal in the opinion of many at the time.
Watching someone erect straw men to knock down gets very boring for the spectators. Might want to expand your conversational depth a little, eh?Replies: @Corvinus
This is a polite way of someone is a crank who holds eccentric views that are out of step with mainstream scholarship.
That does not follow. It seems now that some of these bodies were killed before March 30th (by Ukrainians) and then dramatically placed in the open (again, by Ukrainians) in various states of rigor mortis and decomposition in order to make a nice photo-op that made it appear that the Russians had done it.
Other evidence can also be gathered on the scene, and testimony of witnesses, of course.
#####################And as for the Anonmyous commenter who yet again wants my personal info, I'll reply to him here rather than wasting another comment on drivel like that."HA, what people or nation would you say you’re loyal to?"First of all, if you're that curious about me, you should know it's HA, not Ha. And there's nothing I like better than knowing my background is such a burning issue for all the anonymous little trolls like you I've managed to peeve, that they want to repeatedly follow me around hoping I'll satisfy their curiosity. But actually, my personal loyalties have been revealed often enough in my comments, and those are as accessible to you as they are to me.If you're too dumb or lazy to be able to track them down on your own, don't expect me to do your research for you. I'm not nearly as obsessed with making this all about me as you seem to be, so deal with all that on your own time.
“Bucha: More Like the SS or the LAPD?”
Bucha: More like Jussie Smollet or Duke Lacrosse (e.g. prominent examples of hoaxes the MSM foisted on US without fully doing the research or investigation to ascertain the actual facts of each case).
That Steve isn’t doing his usual and skeptical noticing on Bucha the way he has in the past regarding Smollet, or Virginia Tech U, is a bit odd, to say the least. At this point in time, we’re really expected to just blindly accept the Narrative of Russians totally evil, and Ukrainians totally good, no ulterior motives behind the scenes, etc. Just take the MSM’s word for it that this is how it actually all went down.
Seriously?
https://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924Replies: @mc23, @Anonymous
This war in the Ukraine is a people’s war and every civilian on the street is a possible spy who can call in strikes with their cell phone. If they’re not a spy they may be militia in plain clothes. The Russians are badly trained and badly lead and are facing attacks from all directions around the clock from attackers that they can’t identifiy.
Under these circumstances many innocents will get killed. It’s part of the equation. It’s one reason the charge of waging a war of aggression is prosecuted as a war crime. You create a set of circumstances that make random violence against unavoidabe.
If only we held trials for those who didn’t make a reasonable effort to contain or prevent a war. Putin would be at the head of the list but there’s a lot people in the US who should at least get community service, like everyone who urged confronting and destablizing Russia.
Look at the refugees and destruction. Unavoidable? Maybe, but in this case there truly was no such thing as a bad peace and a good war.
That's awesome! Praise be! In that case, if what you say is all true, then mission accomplished. That means all the Russians can just scurry back on home right now and receive their hero's welcome. Putin can assure them that he's gotten everything he wanted from this war and more, and it was all a smashing success. And who's going to question that? Navalny? Zhirinovsky?
And I'm sure that from this point onward, the people of Mariupol and cities like that will fondly cherish the memory of the last time their brothers from up North ventured down for a visit. Thanks so much, all you Russian "brothers"!Replies: @Anonymous
Ha, what people or nation would you say you’re loyal to?
Let’s also remember claims that the Iraqis destroyed Kuwaiti baby incubators in the first gulf war before we fire up Nuremberg II.
I think that Sean Penn’s point was that for the MAD doctrine to work each side must be convinced that the other side is determined not to blink. Russia is openly threatening to use nuclear weapon while all what the West is saying is that it wants to avoid WWIII. Has the West blinked already? This show of hesitancy to use nuclear weapons erodes the foundation of the MAD doctrine which actually will make WWIII more likely. Thus Biden instead of saying we do not want WWIII from the game theory position he should have said “bring it on” to preserve the appearance of commitment to the MAD doctrine and he should have reasserted that the West’s aid to Ukraine will not be compromised in any way by Russia’s opinions on that matter but it is and will be predicated only on the West’s commitment to the preservation of Ukraine sovereignty.
And yet the Second Amendment is considered a restraint on the States NOW so Halbrook’s consistant thesis of the Fourteenth Amendment incorporating the Second Amendment as applying to the States is now accepted.
One of the little mysteries of Ukraine seems to have been solved.
There have been many reports of helicopters flying into Mariupol that have been shot down by the Russians. One explanation was that they were attempted rescue missions of high value foreigners trapped in the steelworks..
France was the usual suspect.
Turns out it may not have been a frog they were seeking to smuggle out. The Russians seemed to have captured an American Major-General.
https://rense.com/general96/us-major-general-captured-by-russians.php
https://rense.com/general96/us-major-general-captured-by-russians.php
A short timeline:
* After the Jewish Bolshevik revolution, connected Bolshie Jews gobbled up everything of value in Russia.
* Stalin eventually clawed it back for the state.
* In the 90s, Jews once again stole everything of value in Russia with the help of their American ethnic cohorts.
* Putin has clawed some of it back and threatens to claw back more. This is mainly why Jewish media hates him, but they don't like that he helped rebuild the Russian Orthodox church (remember, Jews burned many a church in the Revolution).
* Uki war starts, Jews froth at the mouth for war with Russia, because they smell the opportunity to steal everything AGAIN, for the third time. Third time's the charm, as they say.
And of course in Ukraine, Jews still own everything, which they stole. Which is why Ukraine is the "poorest country in Europe." It's not, really. It's just the most-looted one.
Jack really, really hates the Russians, probably from watching "Fiddler on the Roof" too many times.Replies: @Bragadocious
I hadn’t made the connection with Fiddler yet but I’m glad you did–it really does explain a lot of what we’re going through right now. People like Nuland, Kristol and Frum are fighting their great-grandfather’s war and exacting holy revenge on the Cossacks. Zelensky is Tevye now and we should be honored for the opportunity to perish in a nuclear holocaust to avenge a self-important dairy man who wasn’t shown proper respect back in 1905. “If you please, Reb Tevye, pardon me Reb Tevye…” wow what a load of Jewish BS.
What the Russians are doing and what the Ukrainians are doing is NOT similar. At the end of WWII, a handful of American soldiers, shocked at what they saw at Dachau, shot some of the camp guards. This doesn't mean that the US Army was "similar" to the SS. As Stalin said, quantity has its own quality.Replies: @War for Blair Mountain, @Almost Missouri, @Steve Sailer
The Ukrainian military has killed thousands of civilians in the Donbas since 2014. Western media have not taken much interest in it, but no one denies that it has been happening.
“Unofficial militia type guys” such as Azov are officially part of Ukrainian military per President Zelensky.
Video Link
I’m putting the videos of war crimes and atrocities committed by Ukrainian military below the MORE tag since some of them are very graphic.
There are many more like these, but the MSM, YouTube, and Twitter prefer to keep them under wraps, so you may not have heard about them.
https://odysee.com/@SamSixHuit:7/War-Crimes-against-Humanity-Committed-by-the-Ukrainian-Military-Political-Leadership-in-Donbass:5
If you prefer more direct testimony:
Ukrainians executing Russian POWs.
Video Link
Ukrainian medical director Gennadiy Druzenko orders medial staff to castrate wounded Russians
https://odysee.com/@TrickS:a/Ukraine-head-doctor:c
Since you like testimony from women:
Video Linkhttps://www.bitchute.com/video/ND0UDxMbxp7y/
Video Linkhttps://odysee.com/@Resistance201:b/R201REPOST_CivilianWitness:5
Hold the presses! Someone call the Fields Medal committee! Surely we live in an age of wonders and omens because you have just proven Sean Penn must be smarter than John von Neumann!! For 70+ years we’ve groaned beneath the burden of Budapest Louie’s bumbling, mathematically flawed conception of Mutually Assured Self-Destruction which Spicoli Jeff has just brought level to the earth in one single masterstroke!
While previously we had all just assumed MAD worked only in the context of a threat to national security existential or near-existential in nature, Sean Penn has just shown us that MAD can be applied to all sorts of awkward, everyday social situations. 3rd world, sh!tty country no one in America ever brings up outside of SEINFELD throw-back references but with its hand deep in the President’s pocket invaded? Get MAD! Sergey Lavrov squeeze past you down the airplane aisle and not turn around so as to slide past @ss-to-@ss, but has the effrontery to go d!ck-to@ss like some barbarian? Get MAD! Vladimir Putin take the last Olive Garden breadstick when he’s already had 3? Get MAD!
The point isn’t that you won’t use them, the point is you won’t use them in this case, there is always something you are prepared to go to the mat for, turning Ukraine into a NATOstan isn’t it. Obama was forced to admit this years ago when badgered by Jeffrey Goldberg about why he wasn’t more aggressive with Russia. He calmly explained that of course the political status of Ukraine didn’t, couldn’t and shouldn’t mean anything close to what it meant to Russia.
https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2016/03/the-obama-doctrine-the-atlantics-exclusive-report-on-presidents-hardest-foreign-policy-decisions/473151/
Therefore the US would always lose a war of escalation with Russia over this. That includes how prepared it is to use nukes or rather risk a MAD situation. The US has zero interest in this. The question is, then why did we get here? The US put itself in a position of endless escalation until it had to have it’s president state explicitly several times that he was not prepared to risk MAD for this situation. But Sean Penn is intimating that he thinks this is something the US should be prepared to go to nuclear war for and thus thinks the US looks weak rather than reassuringly somewhat sane. He is disappointed and doesn’t understand that the US seeks only to turn this into a quagmire for Russia and has zero concern for how Ukraine looks after this and is not prepared to put US soldiers in a shooting war with Russian ones because the US intervention in Ukraine since 2014 wasn’t defensive, it was offensive.
Are the neocons just total lunatics at this point who have embraced a logic of never giving an inch and always provoking to the point that if nobody stops them they get us into insane messes like this?
You’re straw-manning, preceded by an appeal to authority.
The Ukrainian commander-in-chief created a morally ambiguous situation for the Russian military. That doesn’t make every Ukrainian man a target, but it does make them potential combatants.
Well, sure HA you are right since after 2014 the Kievan government of the Borderlands gave carte blanche to Azov etc to purge or at least drive underground pro-Russian ‘Borderlanders’.
The Borderland has had to actively prevent military age (widely understood) males from leaving the country. The Borderland has it’s thugs shooting military aged men trying to leave conflict zones with their families. The Borderland has had it’s thugs held civilians in a city under siege, at times at gunpoint, in order to use them as human shields.
The Borderland has repeatedly lied in its propaganda campaigns, from Snake Island to today. It has tried with its lies to drag my country (yours?) into a war with a nuclear armed foe.
In contrast, the brave soldiers of Donetsk and Lugansk, ill equipped, have tied up significant forces of the Kievan government, and indeed even advanced both to link up with Russian forces in the South and on the fortified positions from which the Borderlanders have rained down indiscriminate artillery fusillades for eight years, on and off.
The Maine presumably blew up from an accidental explosion in the magazines. So I guess it falls into a category you might call “opportunistic false flags,” in which the event wasn’t planned but was nevertheless pinned on the enemy after-the-fact. The Gulf of Tonkin is another example. Jumpy radar operators and gunners started shooting at ghosts and then reported they had repelled an attack by the North Vietnamese navy. After the dust settled it was pretty clear no attack had actually happened. But the initial reports were too good of an opportunity to let go to waste.
The Reichstag Fire was another of these. It was a real arson by a lone commie. But the event was spun up and attributed to a giant conspiracy of Jews and Bolsheviks that was used to justify a nation-wide political repression. But when the Germans needed a pretext to attack Poland they went full-blown premediated false flag by staging an attack on their own radio station with SS guys wearing Polish uniforms.
In the 1950’s the Israelis got busted running a false flag operation that bombed Western targets in Egypt and blamed the terrorism on the Islamic Brotherhood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_Affair#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20false,several%20hours%20after%20closing%20time.
The history of “false flags” and “false false flags” seems like a perfect topic for a Ron Unz essay.
There hasn’t been another referendum since 2014, but since you already know what’s in everyone’s heart in the Donbas, there is no need: they can just ask HA!
(According the Western media, every Ukrainian woman 14-80 is a combatant and superhero, but I doubt the Russians take that seriously, to their dismay perhaps.)Replies: @Jack D, @stari_momak
Not just every man..the Borderland government was issuing weapons to all comers.
There was a long article in the WSJ about a woman mayor of the Borderland state who appears to have been executed by Russian forces with her husband and adult son. Horrid. Exept that the reporters can’t stop themselves from narrating her heroic exploits in informing Borderland forces of Russian positions via cell phone and her husband’s doing the same. Which of course makes them combatants. (Don’t know about the son)
https://www.culturesforhealth.com/learn/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Kombucha-Front.png.webpReplies: @stari_momak
Every interview there I’ve seen has featured people speaking perfect and not even south inflected Russia, which gives the lie to the Borderland government’s linguistic censuses. I’m guessing it was Bucha in Soviet days as well.
The Ukrainian commander-in-chief created a morally ambiguous situation for the Russian military. That doesn't make every Ukrainian man a target, but it does make them potential combatants.Replies: @Jack D
The 2nd Amendment guys tell me that the militia consists of all able bodied men. Therefore you belong to the militia and it’s ok for the Russians to kill you.
And if it was 100% true it's still nothing but a disgusting war manipulation like the horror stories about Belgium or the Kuwaiti incubators.Replies: @Hypnotoad666
Exactly. If you have the evidence to dispel any doubt why not put it forward: e.g., forensic evidence establishing cause of death, time of death, victim’s identity, and at least a plausible motive.
It’s a big ask to expect thinking people (as opposed to the MSM) to accept that the Russians are engaging in the cosmically counter-productive practice of just killing random civilians and leaving them strewn about in the middle of the street, because that’s just “who they are.”
Ever heard of the imposition of slavery by the criminal regime known as slaveholders? I was told by the fine commenters here that your own brethren partook in such a dastardly activity. Then again, what do they know, right?Replies: @Jack D, @Curle
Do you know any slaves personally? No because we abolished slavery 150 years ago.
Don’t be naive, Jack. We’re all slaves to the machinations of the elite. You’ve made that implication clear.Replies: @Coemgen, @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Jack D
The Reichstag Fire was another of these. It was a real arson by a lone commie. But the event was spun up and attributed to a giant conspiracy of Jews and Bolsheviks that was used to justify a nation-wide political repression. But when the Germans needed a pretext to attack Poland they went full-blown premediated false flag by staging an attack on their own radio station with SS guys wearing Polish uniforms. In the 1950's the Israelis got busted running a false flag operation that bombed Western targets in Egypt and blamed the terrorism on the Islamic Brotherhood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_Affair#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20false,several%20hours%20after%20closing%20time.
The history of "false flags" and "false false flags" seems like a perfect topic for a Ron Unz essay.Replies: @Jack D
There have been false flags in the past so therefore everything that happens is a false flag. Nothing is ever real, especially not things that you don’t like and wish to ignore.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
“The US has zero interest in this.”
They had plenty of interest when Ukraine was “encouraged” to give up its nukes in exchange for security guarantees. That led to an actual document being signed — unlike those fictitious “not one inch Eastward” NATO agreements or handshake deals that were allegedly made at some point (in the absence of any NATO official, I might add).
Russia and China have already indicated their word means nothing on a document like that and their many trolls and enablers have assured us that this is how it should be because big powers are allowed break agreements whenever they feel like, or something. (And let’s remember that the next time anyone expects Ukraine to believe any agreement Putin or his henchmen or China signs.) The remaining question, then, is what America’s word means on a document like that, and based on the flood of weapons Ukraine has received, it’s not totally worthless, even if some would say it’s not enough.
Oddly the very same fanboys who tell us trusting America to keep its word is a recipe for disaster (to the extent that any country that thinks otherwise deserves to be turned into rubble) are the very same ones who tell us that violating that security assurance is no big deal.
In any case, let’s dispense with the lie that encouraging a nuked-up country to give that up wasn’t in our interest. It was and it is. Had Russia played this the way adults do (e.g. Nuland, who managed to sway the Ukrainians without a single tank rolling towards Kiev and without swiping a single acre of Ukraine), we would never have had to do anything else.
As it is, we made a promise, and now the bill is due.
“Do you know any slaves personally? No because we abolished slavery 150 years ago.“
Don’t be naive, Jack. We’re all slaves to the machinations of the elite. You’ve made that implication clear.
It is much more apropos to your commenting than aggrandizing yourself as a crow.
I thought I was doing you a favor by suggesting bonxie to you a while back.
Apparently, you do not appreciate my efforts.
Please reconsider.
Americans have such an easy life that they are prone to this. My father once told me a story about something a woman said to him when he was working in a butcher shop in the early 1950s, after he had come to America, something that stuck with him for decades. The woman must have somehow known or figured out that he was a Holocaust survivor (some of the guys had the number tattoos on their arm but he hadn't stayed at Auschwitz long enough to get tattooed - the Russians were approaching and they shipped him on to Germany right away). And unprompted (except by her own feelings of guilt) she said to him, "You know, in America during the war we didn't have it so great either. We had meat rationing, you know." As if having meat rationing and being nearly starved to death as a concentration camp prisoner are really the same thing.
I keep seeing the same thing here - our government is "oppressive", so therefore it's really no different than the kind of reign of terror that exists when the Russians come to town and start executing people. You really have no idea what real oppression is.Replies: @Corvinus
I said no such thing. But our very own Deep State warned that we should expect false flags in this war and they are the authorities, no?
I also forgot that “Assad gassing his own people” was almost certainly a false flag. https://mronline.org/2021/11/25/prestigious-weaponry-expert-censored-after-demonstrating-that-a-deadly-poison-gas-attack-blamed-on-the-syrian-government-was-really-a-false-flag-operation-by-u-s-funded-terrorists/
Also, remember the alleged assassination attempt on George H.W. Bush by Saddam Hussein. As Scott Ritter notes, we captured all the Iraqi intelligence agents and archives in 2003, and their docs showed they never had such a plan. (See 50:00~54:00 of interview). It was apparently disinformation/false flag by the Kuwaitis and U.S. Deep State elements to preempt Clinton’s lifting of sanctions.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/RpOcLAzWeHel/Ukrainian medical director Gennadiy Druzenko orders medial staff to castrate wounded Russians
https://odysee.com/@TrickS:a/Ukraine-head-doctor:cSince you like testimony from women:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/hUqhxlbOQYkG/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ND0UDxMbxp7y/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/4fwaQA2gnpct/
https://odysee.com/@Resistance201:b/R201REPOST_CivilianWitness:5Replies: @GeologyAnonMk5
Nazis beating the shit out of Russians in a major battle around Kharkov for the fourth consecutive time. Just rename it Mansteinberg at this point.
Commenter Jack D sounds like an unhinged leftist who has embraced National Bolshevism.
Let me quote the great prophet Lennon:
Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion, too
Livin’ life in peace
You
You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will be as one
Why in the HELL would I care about Ukraine’s borders when my own are deemed illegal, racist, and now non existent. I might bother to care at all about Ukraine, when my own nation has a border. A real one. One enforced. And I’m not on the hook for paying for the extra 100 million “migrants” that Obama is pushing down our throats.
As for who/what/where/how/why, I’m suspicious of everything. I’ve been lied to over and over: Martin Luther King, Tawana Brawley, Rodney King, Duke Lacrosse, Haven Monahan, “White Hispanic” Zimmerman, Big Guy’s son’s laptop, “Two weeks to crush the curve,” “masks don’t work,” masks work wonders, vaccine is dangerous, vaccine is perfect, you need 11 boosters, toddlers must wear masks, Covid did not come from a lab leak, Fauci is blameless with no conflict of interest, BLM is perfect and incorruptible, the oceans will dry up in ten years (this in 1988). Lies lies lies all lies. Obvious ones too. So I don’t believe the media, don’t believe Ukraine who have been caught lying constantly: Ghost of Keeeevvvvvvvv! and Snake Island and I don’t believe Russia.
And since everyone is lying to me, I just don’t care. I don’t care who did it, or why, its not my problem.
I do see how wrong Jack D is on pretty much everything. One thing not un-noticed by Deplorables and other Dirt People is how effective rifles firing intermediate cartridges are in an urban setting. How “hugging the enemy” as the Soviets did in Stalingrad, the NVA in Vietnam, Hezbollah with Israel in Lebanon, Afghanis and Iraqis did with US BIG ARMY, neutralizes artillery and air and armor. When its dudes shooting at each other with rifles over rubble, the group with the best skills, determination, and numbers wins. Since all that other stuff cannot be used without killing their own people in great quantities.
It took twenty years, but illiterate goat herders on motorbikes conquered Afghanistan from us in at the end, not even a week. As we fled in terror.
Not even Obama, manuevering now to replace Brandon as President via the Vice Presidency then Brandon’s resignation, is going to nuke a Major American City to get at the Dirt People living there. Not even him.
What Vladimir Putin doesn't understand is that if the US is going to allow its major city central districts to be burnt over some drug-addled person finding every excuse to not sit in the back of a police car, the facts-on-the-ground in Bucha mean nothing to the people who want to see Mr. Putin, as it were, Chauvinized.Replies: @Coemgen
Since that has already happened, who, in their right mind, is going to respect U.S. sovereignty.
And a poisonous frog dies when it is eaten by a predator. Nevertheless, making your own destruction a costly affair for your destroyer remains an effective strategy, as shown by multiple taxa which all evolved to the same strategy under differing conditions.
You’re descending into oh-be-de-why-dang territory now.
You know the Ukraine never had those nukes. They were Soviet nukes always under Russian control. This silly argument keeps getting trotted out.
Beyond that, do US still doesn’t have an interest in this current conflict and you are avoiding that.
Do you give Steve a lot of donations so he put you on auto approval? You’re able to post hundreds of times and create the illusion of “winning“ arguments because no one can respond to you.
SOVIET nukes. Read what you just said. These were Soviet nukes situated in Ukraine. The question of who got what when the Soviet Union dissolved took some haggling. Those security assurances were what resulted. I guess Russia could have pulled the old "this was always mine and so I get to have it all" routine (kind of like they are now), but instead they chose to put their evidently worthless signature onto a document that we co-signed. And so here we are. Please try and keep up.
"Do you give Steve a lot of donations so he put you on auto approval?"
Evidently, I get about as much auto-approval as PaperbackWriter, PhysicistDave, BuzzMohawk and any number of Putin's useful idiots and trolls whose replies to my comments seem to appear quickly enough. Do you whine about their unfair advantages, too? Or have you ever considered doing something a little more constructive, say, taking a screen name other than Anonymous287?Replies: @Anonymous
Don’t be naive, Jack. We’re all slaves to the machinations of the elite. You’ve made that implication clear.Replies: @Coemgen, @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Jack D
Why haven’t you changed your online “profile” to Bonxie, a kleptoparasite?
It is much more apropos to your commenting than aggrandizing yourself as a crow.
I thought I was doing you a favor by suggesting bonxie to you a while back.
Apparently, you do not appreciate my efforts.
Please reconsider.
Newspapers thrown from a truck and landing on driveways do make a little thump sound. But nothing like a rifle or hand gun shot. Chris Dorner was an affirmative action LAPD cop. He was so corrupt he was fired even if he was a sacred highest caste affirmative action African American
Hannity, is that you? Clamoring for war with Russia? Another neocon shill?
Oh, it’s Ha ha ha again, clamoring about this “promise” that NATO should invite Ukraine into the club.
Question: Currently, is Ukraine part of NATO?
Answer: No, it is not.
Therefore, it’s not our fight, period.
As this is the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, where nuclear missiles were being proposed to be placed in Cuba, about 100 miles away from the US, the parallel is obvious to those over the age of six.
Then: the Western Hemisphere is the US’s backyard, and the USSR should stay out.
Now: Ukraine is Russia’s backyard (sphere of influence) and the US/NATO should stay out.
Ukraine’s getting what they deserved. Putin has been warning the US/NATO for nearly 20 yrs not to come close to Moscow (much as JFK warned USSR not to place nuclear missiles in Cuba).
It’s fairly simple, Ha ha ha. We stay out of Russia’s sphere of influence (their backyard) and they stay out of ours.
Don’t be naive, Jack. We’re all slaves to the machinations of the elite. You’ve made that implication clear.Replies: @Coemgen, @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Jack D
And with that, you’ve just admitted that you don’t know any US slaves, literally. Slavery as an institution was abolished in 1865 with the 13th Amendment.
Don’t be binary. Literally and figuratively, I have heard from a number of posters here that they are slaves due to the machinations of the global elite, AND the totalitarian rule of the federal government, AND the Jewish imposed Globalhomo agenda? I even have a few friends who feel that same way.
Are you saying they are IMAGINING they are slaves, that what they lament about is overblown?
The incident could also remind us of another famous event in Iraq — the infamous January 2005 Tel Afar shootings, in which the little girl Samar Hassan was photographed by Chris Hondros and it became the face of the civilian casualties of the war [1].
In this case, spooked US soldiers lit up on an Iraqi family, killing the parents and permanently paralyzing one of the children, because the driver of the vehicle did not come to a full stop when they surprised their patrol in the late evening.
These Russians suddenly saw a cyclist appear from nowhere while the two lead tanks were looking off into the distance.
Indeed, there is actually a shot from one of the tanks that appears to have been done prior to the cyclist rounding the corner, as if they were already in some kind of engagement with an off-screen Ukrainian enemy. You can see this occur at roughly 1:28 of the infamous Bellingcat video [2].
It is perhaps the case that a significant amount of the civilian casualties that will occur in the war are from relatively more benign reasons than intentionally lighting them up or executing them as collaborators. I have long been open to the idea that the bulk of police shootings of unarmed criminals are likely because of this.
The great irony, of course, to all of this, is that the only war crimes done in Bucha so far that we have definitive proof of were just released today — the New York Times confirming the validity of a video in which the Ukrainian military shoots to death a Russian prisoner and, nearby, there are three other dead Russians with blood pooled on the ground around their heads [3]. This video will not get the attention it deserves precisely because of what you have stated: it does not benefit the narrative that the media tycoons and Western oligarchs want. They want a Lusitania.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2005_Tal_Afar_shootings
[2] https://nitter.snopyta.org/bellingcat/status/1511284174921076736
[3] https://news.yahoo.com/video-appears-show-ukrainian-soldiers-192219323.html?guccounter=1
That’s not a false choice. If I asked you , is a mango more like a peach or a potato, you could say, well it’s neither, a mango tastes like a mango but probably you would concede that it tastes more like a peach, because that has no political implications. There is nothing false about a choice like this.
But here you are just trying to dodge our gracious host’s perfectly valid question because it leads to further implications that you don’t like. First you try to deflect it onto me even though it was Steve’s question and then you say the question is not valid (you should take that up with Steve – how dare he post false choices!) – you’ll do anything not to give a straight answer. Others are screaming false flag or the Ukrainians do that too or the Americans do that too or my dog does that too. Anything not to have to deal with the implications of another genocide in the heart of Europe.
2) The world is not always a Holocaust morality play or an LAPD morality play to me. I'll give you a complex answer, because the situation is complex. For example... Just read the simplistic hysterics here on your part. "Another genocide"? How many Ukrainians have died in this war so far? "The heart of Europe"? Really, Ukraine?
In reality, you and your opponents here (whom you call "Putin fanboys") are basically the two sides of the same coin. You project all your insecurities and moral panic (mostly from our domestic context) and inject them into a foreign conflict. Well, I am neither a Putin fanboy who sees him as the Savior of the White Race nor a Jew who sees the Holocaust morality play in everything, so, yeah, my answers are going to strike you (and your opponents) as ambivalent. So I tend to concentrate on technical issues and also on "lessons learned" for my own country, you know, the political entity and the nation that is the most important to me.
You should try it sometime.
Also, I note here that you like to pick rhetorical arguments with me, but don't respond when I rebut your shallow points about, for example, armaments, military technical issues, or the history of civilian firearm ownership in Europe. You should try acknowledging when your knowledge deficiency has been corrected. Not only would you come off as more reasonable and gracious, you also wouldn't come off like a crazed ideologue who is only interested in winning word games against others.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jack D
The Russian army can’t go door-to-door committing executions with only tanks. Russian tankers, in your scenario, would have to waste hundreds or thousands of tank rounds shooting at houses which may or may not be occupied, in a contested combat zone where every tank round is needed to fight the Ukrainian army. To round up civilians and commit executions, a force needs dismounted (exposed) infantry to kick down doors. That can’t be done (without huge losses) if the civilians have combat rifles.
Ukraine civilians being unarmed allowed Bucha to happen (as reported), and yet you still hold that governments should have a “monopoly on force”. Ridiculous.
Don’t be naive, Jack. We’re all slaves to the machinations of the elite. You’ve made that implication clear.Replies: @Coemgen, @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Jack D
Your just playing word games . Being a slave to the machinations of the elite in America is just a metaphor and is nothing like actual slavery.
Americans have such an easy life that they are prone to this. My father once told me a story about something a woman said to him when he was working in a butcher shop in the early 1950s, after he had come to America, something that stuck with him for decades. The woman must have somehow known or figured out that he was a Holocaust survivor (some of the guys had the number tattoos on their arm but he hadn’t stayed at Auschwitz long enough to get tattooed – the Russians were approaching and they shipped him on to Germany right away). And unprompted (except by her own feelings of guilt) she said to him, “You know, in America during the war we didn’t have it so great either. We had meat rationing, you know.” As if having meat rationing and being nearly starved to death as a concentration camp prisoner are really the same thing.
I keep seeing the same thing here – our government is “oppressive”, so therefore it’s really no different than the kind of reign of terror that exists when the Russians come to town and start executing people. You really have no idea what real oppression is.
Americans have such an easy life that they are prone to this. My father once told me a story about something a woman said to him when he was working in a butcher shop in the early 1950s, after he had come to America, something that stuck with him for decades. The woman must have somehow known or figured out that he was a Holocaust survivor (some of the guys had the number tattoos on their arm but he hadn't stayed at Auschwitz long enough to get tattooed - the Russians were approaching and they shipped him on to Germany right away). And unprompted (except by her own feelings of guilt) she said to him, "You know, in America during the war we didn't have it so great either. We had meat rationing, you know." As if having meat rationing and being nearly starved to death as a concentration camp prisoner are really the same thing.
I keep seeing the same thing here - our government is "oppressive", so therefore it's really no different than the kind of reign of terror that exists when the Russians come to town and start executing people. You really have no idea what real oppression is.Replies: @Corvinus
“Your just playing word games . Being a slave to the machinations of the elite in America is just a metaphor and is nothing like actual slavery.”
I’m not the one playing word games. I’m simply relaying the sentiment of the unz commentariat, and something that you have also implied. You’re not fooling anyone.
“Americans have such an easy life that they are prone to this.”
Just stop. You as a Jew do not enjoy when others make sweeping generalizations about your kin, yet that is what you are doing here.
“I keep seeing the same thing here – our government is “oppressive”, so therefore it’s really no different than the kind of reign of terror that exists when the Russians come to town and start executing people. You really have no idea what real oppression is.”
“Real” oppression, huh. OK, is not the American elite oppressing white people by favoring non-whites and trannies? Is not the American elite oppressing white men by favoring white women and women of color? Because that is the attitude by a number of posters on this fine opinion webzine. Aren’t you being dismissive of their experiences with “real oppression”? Direct questions. Please answer, with reasoning.
But here you are just trying to dodge our gracious host's perfectly valid question because it leads to further implications that you don't like. First you try to deflect it onto me even though it was Steve's question and then you say the question is not valid (you should take that up with Steve - how dare he post false choices!) - you'll do anything not to give a straight answer. Others are screaming false flag or the Ukrainians do that too or the Americans do that too or my dog does that too. Anything not to have to deal with the implications of another genocide in the heart of Europe.Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Twinkie
Is Ukraine the “heart of Europe”? News to me! And has a genocide occurred, or just “implications”?
If you’re really anti-genocide, why don’t you advocate for arming civilians, as I’ve described? Such armed societies could still be wiped out by nukes, but they would be sure tough to occupy. But I think you rather savor the maudlin drama of Shoah-business vignettes of helpless civilians getting rounded up and whacked. You are sick.
Ukraine (at least the Kyiv region) was tough to occupy ( largely due to heavy weapons and official armed forces, not hunting rifles) but the Russians nevertheless managed to slaughter a lot of innocent civilians. Amateurs equipped only with rifles are simply no match for a modern army, especially a ruthless one that is willing to slaughter civilians indiscriminately. Had there been more partisan type activity, the Russians would have massacred even more civilians in their Nazi style - you kill one of ours, we shoot ten civilians. In Chechnya and in Syria there was heavy resistance and the Russians just pounded their cities into dust the same as the Germans did with the Warsaw Ghetto. Rifles vs. howitzers is no contest.Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Abolish_public_education
Again with the guns. Can’t we get Abolish Public Schools in to complain about the public schools in Ukraine? I gave you the link – there are already something like 5 to 7 million guns in private hands in Ukraine or enough to equip most men of fighting age. These guns were of limited use when the Russian Army rolled in with armor.
Ukraine (at least the Kyiv region) was tough to occupy ( largely due to heavy weapons and official armed forces, not hunting rifles) but the Russians nevertheless managed to slaughter a lot of innocent civilians. Amateurs equipped only with rifles are simply no match for a modern army, especially a ruthless one that is willing to slaughter civilians indiscriminately. Had there been more partisan type activity, the Russians would have massacred even more civilians in their Nazi style – you kill one of ours, we shoot ten civilians. In Chechnya and in Syria there was heavy resistance and the Russians just pounded their cities into dust the same as the Germans did with the Warsaw Ghetto. Rifles vs. howitzers is no contest.
You must have missed this one; and the name's A_p_e.
And what about people touching the hair of Black Women. Hair touching is WORSE than genocide. The dead no longer care but the anguish a Black Woman whose hair has been touched is endless.
Red herring. Who gives a damn about vapid women? Mr. Sailer is obsessed by them.
Anyways, quit dodging the questions, Jack. Is not the American elite oppressing white people by favoring non-whites and trannies? Is not the American elite oppressing white men by favoring white women and women of color? Because that is the attitude by a number of posters on this fine opinion webzine. Aren’t you being dismissive of their experiences of “real oppression”? Direct questions. Please answer, with reasoning.Replies: @Jack D
Like sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, sometimes black people serial kill people because they like to serial kill people. The rest is idle rhetoric by the silly folk who attempt to make civilized sense of it, because the truth… is just too noxious.
People are supposed to be complicated. They’re not supposed to by simple-minded, predatory vicious animals. Who would want to try living happily in that sad world? Best not to acknowledge it, and instead obfuscate it with cross-eyed theory. It just feels better.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/crime/2022/03/31/prosecutor-convicted-nj-serial-killer-also-murdered-15-year-old-girl/7237746001/?itm_medium=recirc&itm_source=taboola&itm_campaign=internal&itm_content=RightRailArticleThumbnails-Redesign
I day or two ago, you were focusing on the alleged Bucha Massacre, and I said I was skeptical it had happened that way mostly because Scott Ritter, a high-credibility military expert, had looked into it and thought it was an obvious false-flag. You cited the NYT and satellite images as absolutely conclusive proof, and ridiculed me when I said that Intelligence agencies could always fake that sort of evidence so I hadn’t bothered looking into any of the details.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I’d highly recommend it:
Video Link
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there’s been an enormous amount of “false history” introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.
https://news.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/lenin-image-2-500.jpg
What were March 2022 temperatures in Bucha?
https://www.meteoprog.ua/en/weather/Bucha/month/march/
What are temperatures in mortuary chambers? Daily temperature in Bucha are not significantly higher then in mortuary chambers and on several days are lower.
"decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs" - How do you know? Who saw the bodies undressed on a table in mortuary?Replies: @Ron Unz
His dismissal of Steven Sailer's point about the apparent Russian shift in strategy - retreating from the Kiev and Chernigov areas - with ad hominem and appeal to self-authority ("Stay in your lane," "I was with the Marines studying maneuver warfare") and describing the clear Russian retreat as some sort of a brilliant Russian maneuver warfare that was intended all along doesn't exactly paint him as a credible expert, but rather someone who has an invested prior position from which he is loath to budge.
Well, I am not some random internet troll and am someone has studied the origin of Soviet maneuver warfare doctrines (e.g. Tukhachevsky's deep battle) and its real life iterations in "The Great Patriotic War" and the post-war years (esp. in contrast to the German counterparts). I am also acquainted with Bill Lind, one of the premier experts and proponents of an American-style of maneuver warfare for decades. For a while, I knew many at TRADOC and certainly consumed and researched everything it produced (esp. FM100-5 Operations).
And I find Ritter's explanation and subsequent snippy comment to Mr. Sailer quite laughable... and damaging to his credibility at least as far as this war is concerned.
In the beginning of the war, along with many others, I expected the Russians to dominate the air in short order and reach Kiev rapidly, perhaps leading to the escape and/or collapse of the Ukrainian political leadership. I was wrong about that. I was both surprised by the lack of Russian military operational and tactical proficiency, given the increasing professionalization of its army and recent combat experiences, and the tenacity of the Ukrainian defenders and the political leadership: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-179-russia-ukraine-cont/#comment-5222662
Mr. Ritter should try altering his views when they turn out to be wrong, instead of dying on every hill along with his credibility.
And for the record, I still think the deck is heavily tilted in Russia's favor.Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Ron Unz
Ukraine and the global south - https://on.ft.com/3FeBm89 via @FT
and the excerpt in which the Indian participant is answering Gideon Rachman's question is here: A truly horrifying Tweet was sent to me by a well informed person who believes it is not faked.
Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) tweeted at 6:13 pm on Wed, May 04, 2022:
Ukrainian army released a tapped phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier describes excited how he tortured and killed Ukrainians, and says he enjoys mutilating people. I have translated the calls in this #THREAD. Please be aware of extreme violence. /1
(https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1521765064386170881?t=tSbEXd3MZZtQYQFY6rnzCA&s=03)
Here is the discussion I had with the person who sent me the Tweet to help accelerate your forming a view (still tentative I trust) about the genuiness of the alleged intercept which, unfortunately the last few centuries of history would allow to be genuine. To which I received this reply: Me again His last word Any advance on 50:50? Maybe some other commenter will have something more.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
Unless they’re marinated in cheap vodka, like a certain Russian for 98 years:
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
I am not an expert on bodies decomposition but with few minutes of googling I can easily undermine arguments of non-experts like Scott Ritter or you.
What were March 2022 temperatures in Bucha?
https://www.meteoprog.ua/en/weather/Bucha/month/march/
What are temperatures in mortuary chambers?
Daily temperature in Bucha are not significantly higher then in mortuary chambers and on several days are lower.
“decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs” – How do you know? Who saw the bodies undressed on a table in mortuary?
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Griffin provides a temperature report for the previous week, indicating that the highs during some of the days were 15-17 C/60-63F. Indeed, there wasn't a single day with temperatures below freezing. If you think bodies lying in the road for THREE WEEKS at those sorts of temperatures aren't noticeable, you're deluded.Replies: @Anon, @utu, @PhysicistDave
Ukraine (at least the Kyiv region) was tough to occupy ( largely due to heavy weapons and official armed forces, not hunting rifles) but the Russians nevertheless managed to slaughter a lot of innocent civilians. Amateurs equipped only with rifles are simply no match for a modern army, especially a ruthless one that is willing to slaughter civilians indiscriminately. Had there been more partisan type activity, the Russians would have massacred even more civilians in their Nazi style - you kill one of ours, we shoot ten civilians. In Chechnya and in Syria there was heavy resistance and the Russians just pounded their cities into dust the same as the Germans did with the Warsaw Ghetto. Rifles vs. howitzers is no contest.Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Abolish_public_education
You started with fake umbrage about civilians executed in cold blood by soldiers with guns. That can’t happen if both sides have guns. Especially if the armed civilians outnumber the invaders.
Again, your crappy non sequitur link didn’t specify combat rifles (i.e. AK-variants). It could be (low-caliber) bolt actions, shotguns, etc.
Homegrown amateurs (and trained civilian militia) in great enough numbers can beat a modern invading army, if they are willing. The only way for that army to hold territory would be to physically level all the structures and kill everyone. That would be a tall order for Russia to do in vast Ukraine without using nukes.
We haven’t seen that in Ukraine, e.g. Kiev and other cities still stand. Russia either does not have the will or (conventional) means to level the entire place. It appears Russia’s physical goal is to control Ukraine (or parts of it), not destroy it. Azov strongholds may be an exception to the latter.
Chechnya is much smaller than Ukraine. And two wars were needed there (the second lasting ten years!), including a major inter-war defection from Akhmad Kadyrov. Damage in Syria (also much smaller than Ukraine) mostly happened before the Russians showed up. So neither are comparable to Ukraine, both politically and physically.
Not true. Those invading howitzer (and tank, etc.) crews would be surrounded and outnumbered from Day 1 by combined regular and civilian armed forces (the latter would outnumber the former by at least an order of magnitude). You may not realize this, but heavy weapons crews have to step outside their machines from time to time. That makes them vulnerable to rifle attack.
Real war is not a video game. In reality, not only is a howitzer crew extremely vulnerable to an infantry attack, the latter doesn't even actually have to attack the crew to defeat it. Partisans, guerillas, and such who attack the enemy army's fighting units don't live long in this world. An army is a living thing and requires a constant supply of mountains of food, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and so on. This is something most civilians just don't realize. Behind the action scenes on TV, there occurs a logistical operation of an enormous scope occurring behind the forward edge of battle. And no army in the world has enough armed manpower to adequately protect all the supply convoys.
Some people are under delusions that the Stinger-armed Mujeheddin were shooting down Soviet jets and attack helicopters in the Soviet-Afghan War and that's how the former chased the latter out. No, that'd have resulted in lots of dead Mujis and wasted Stingers. What actually happened was the Stingers were used - very opportunistically - to attack transport helicopters that supplied the Soviet bases on hills and mountaintops.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D
What were March 2022 temperatures in Bucha?
https://www.meteoprog.ua/en/weather/Bucha/month/march/
What are temperatures in mortuary chambers? Daily temperature in Bucha are not significantly higher then in mortuary chambers and on several days are lower.
"decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs" - How do you know? Who saw the bodies undressed on a table in mortuary?Replies: @Ron Unz
You were obviously too lazy to bother looking at the Nick Griffin article I’d specifically linked:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Griffin provides a temperature report for the previous week, indicating that the highs during some of the days were 15-17 C/60-63F. Indeed, there wasn’t a single day with temperatures below freezing. If you think bodies lying in the road for THREE WEEKS at those sorts of temperatures aren’t noticeable, you’re deluded.
Just being nitpicky
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/ukraine/kyiv/historic?month=3&year=2022
For each day the graph shows min and max temps at 12am, 6am, 12pm and 6pm. From it I calculated daily averages and here I list daily min, avg and max in centigrades:
March 11: -8, -3.25, 0
Macrh 12: -5, -1.37, +4
March 13: -2, -1.3, -1
March 14: -2, +1.6, +6
March 15: -1, +4, +10
March 16: -4, -0.37, +4
March 17: -5, -1.5, +2
March 18: -5, -1.6, +2
March 19: -3, +1.1, +5
March 20: -1, +4, +9
March 21: +2, +10.5, +13
March 22: +5, +9.6, +15
March 23: +6, +11, +16
March 24: +2, +5.8, +8
March 25: +3, +7.3, +10
March 26: +4, +9, +15
March 27: +1, +2.6, +4
March 28: -2, +5.5, +15
March 29: +9, 13.1, +17
March 30: +4, +6.6, +9
March 31 : +4, +6, +7
____________________
4 days with avg T <0°C
8 days with avg T < 2°C
11 days with avg T < 4°C
15 days with avg T < 7°C
5 days with temp larger than 7°Ç
3 days with avg temp larger than 10°C
1 day with avg temp 13.1°C
Now look at what that Putin hack that you promote wrote: Does his description is a good reflection of reality? Which statesmen of his are blatantly false and which are misleading?
The information in my pervious comment states that bodies in a morgue are kept in up to 4°C temperature for several weeks. 11 days out of 21 in 11-31 March period were below 4°C and only 6 days were over 7°C and only 3 days were over 10°C.
Furthermore it might be possible that temps in Kiev are higher than in Bucha due to urban island heat effect.
I am not en expert in body decomposition but neither are you nor Nick Griffin from Putin's Sputnik.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Chrisnonymous
As I noted above, the date may be moot: even if we assume the date is March 19 and accept the temperature data kindly provided by utu, that is plenty of time for the bodies to change in very, very nasty ways.
Ukraine (at least the Kyiv region) was tough to occupy ( largely due to heavy weapons and official armed forces, not hunting rifles) but the Russians nevertheless managed to slaughter a lot of innocent civilians. Amateurs equipped only with rifles are simply no match for a modern army, especially a ruthless one that is willing to slaughter civilians indiscriminately. Had there been more partisan type activity, the Russians would have massacred even more civilians in their Nazi style - you kill one of ours, we shoot ten civilians. In Chechnya and in Syria there was heavy resistance and the Russians just pounded their cities into dust the same as the Germans did with the Warsaw Ghetto. Rifles vs. howitzers is no contest.Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Abolish_public_education
Can’t we get Abolish Public Schools in to complain about the public schools in Ukraine?
You must have missed this one; and the name’s A_p_e.
What was “The Lavon Affair” Jack? I always wanted to know. Thx.
But here you are just trying to dodge our gracious host's perfectly valid question because it leads to further implications that you don't like. First you try to deflect it onto me even though it was Steve's question and then you say the question is not valid (you should take that up with Steve - how dare he post false choices!) - you'll do anything not to give a straight answer. Others are screaming false flag or the Ukrainians do that too or the Americans do that too or my dog does that too. Anything not to have to deal with the implications of another genocide in the heart of Europe.Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Twinkie
That’s very dandy, but that original question is more like asking if a mango tastes more like beef or an onion. My answer is: neither. What’d be yours?
1) I don’t always agree with our host.
2) The world is not always a Holocaust morality play or an LAPD morality play to me.
I’ll give you a complex answer, because the situation is complex. For example…
Just read the simplistic hysterics here on your part. “Another genocide”? How many Ukrainians have died in this war so far? “The heart of Europe”? Really, Ukraine?
In reality, you and your opponents here (whom you call “Putin fanboys”) are basically the two sides of the same coin. You project all your insecurities and moral panic (mostly from our domestic context) and inject them into a foreign conflict. Well, I am neither a Putin fanboy who sees him as the Savior of the White Race nor a Jew who sees the Holocaust morality play in everything, so, yeah, my answers are going to strike you (and your opponents) as ambivalent. So I tend to concentrate on technical issues and also on “lessons learned” for my own country, you know, the political entity and the nation that is the most important to me.
You should try it sometime.
Also, I note here that you like to pick rhetorical arguments with me, but don’t respond when I rebut your shallow points about, for example, armaments, military technical issues, or the history of civilian firearm ownership in Europe. You should try acknowledging when your knowledge deficiency has been corrected. Not only would you come off as more reasonable and gracious, you also wouldn’t come off like a crazed ideologue who is only interested in winning word games against others.
I myself have been labeled a "Putin fanboy" simply because I try to understand Putin's motivations, because I think the West could have avoided this tragedy, and because I think the best that can now happen -- especially for Ukraine but also for Russia and the West -- is a negotiated peaces. Yet, from the get-go I have said that, had Putin asked my advice, I would have recommended that he go at most into the Dnbass and, even then, I am doubtful that the operation is in the interest of the Russian people.
And of course a lot of those here who have been labeled "Putin fanboys" are libertarians -- I am a libertarian anarchist myself -- hardly the sort of people likely to be filled with deep admiration for Vladimir Putin!
For some reason, those who scream about "Putin fanboys" seem to be people who simply want this horrific tragedy to drag on indefinitely -- either because they have some bizarrely deep hatred of Russia or because they bear some fealty to the neocon Deep State or perhaps simply because they really are "war-porn" addicts, people who love seeing reports of dead human beings.
But are there really any "Putin fanboys" here in Sailer's comment section?Replies: @Chrisnonymous
Now since he wrote that, further evidence of SS like behavior has come out. German intelligence was apparently listening to the Russian coms in Bucha ( the fact that the Russians have unencrypted coms is further indication of what clowns they are - even the Nazis had Enigma). In these communications, there are orders issued that state: "First you interrogate soldiers, then you shoot them." AFAIK, the LAPD never does this. Even the SS, for the most part, did not shoot American and British POWs (but the Russians did execute the Polish officer corps at Katyn so I suppose you are right that the Russian Army is behaving most like the Russian Army - it's just that the Russian Army is WORSE than the SS in some respects).
Apparently the Wagner Group played a leading role in the atrocities. More to the point, you could compare the Russian Army to the Wehrmacht and the Wagner Group is the SS.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d
The people who are quibbling over whether the publicly release satellite images are real/fake and what day they were taking on and whether the satellites were even overhead on those days (the quibbles are almost certainly false and just more Russian disinformation) are fighting the wrong battle because the intelligence services have their own satellites and probably have more and better images. Such disinformation might serve to create FUD now (which is the point - Russian disinformation isn't really supposed to convince people in the West other than a handful of Putin fanbois - it's supposed to make you think "we really don't know for sure what is happening" and it works remarkably well in that role as you can see here) but at the war crimes trials evidence with a formal chain of custody will be presented and will be correlated with radio transmissions and forensic evidence and maybe even testimony from underlings who are captured, etc.
The Russian UN Ambassador (who BTW looks and sounds like a cartoon caricature of a Russian official) is clearly nervous and stumbles over a question about the bodies on the street in Bucha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTXA3t-zyK0
He makes a Kinsley Gaffe: He is probably nervous about whether he is going to get dragged into the war crimes trials. Von Ribbentrop ended up on the gallows.Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Twinkie
You are right. Jack D might not be that bright. Here is an example of why. Is he actually suggesting that, in a military context, a group of riflemen loses to a howitzer crew, because the howitzer is much more powerful than a rifle? How incredibly stupid is that?
Real war is not a video game. In reality, not only is a howitzer crew extremely vulnerable to an infantry attack, the latter doesn’t even actually have to attack the crew to defeat it. Partisans, guerillas, and such who attack the enemy army’s fighting units don’t live long in this world. An army is a living thing and requires a constant supply of mountains of food, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and so on. This is something most civilians just don’t realize. Behind the action scenes on TV, there occurs a logistical operation of an enormous scope occurring behind the forward edge of battle. And no army in the world has enough armed manpower to adequately protect all the supply convoys.
Some people are under delusions that the Stinger-armed Mujeheddin were shooting down Soviet jets and attack helicopters in the Soviet-Afghan War and that’s how the former chased the latter out. No, that’d have resulted in lots of dead Mujis and wasted Stingers. What actually happened was the Stingers were used – very opportunistically – to attack transport helicopters that supplied the Soviet bases on hills and mountaintops.
Jack D has generally been pretty coy about how he gets money, but it seems likely that he is a guy who uses words to manipulate other people without having to actually deal much with concrete physical reality.
Of course, in the society in which we live, such people feel superior to the mere fellows who make their soft lives possible.
But, as Herb Stein said, what can't go on forever, won't.Replies: @Jack D, @kaganovitch
Jack, your therapist is waiting for your call:
https://www.femalefirst.co.uk/image-library/land/1000/i/inglourious-basterds---christoph-waltz.jpg
Real war is not a video game. In reality, not only is a howitzer crew extremely vulnerable to an infantry attack, the latter doesn't even actually have to attack the crew to defeat it. Partisans, guerillas, and such who attack the enemy army's fighting units don't live long in this world. An army is a living thing and requires a constant supply of mountains of food, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and so on. This is something most civilians just don't realize. Behind the action scenes on TV, there occurs a logistical operation of an enormous scope occurring behind the forward edge of battle. And no army in the world has enough armed manpower to adequately protect all the supply convoys.
Some people are under delusions that the Stinger-armed Mujeheddin were shooting down Soviet jets and attack helicopters in the Soviet-Afghan War and that's how the former chased the latter out. No, that'd have resulted in lots of dead Mujis and wasted Stingers. What actually happened was the Stingers were used - very opportunistically - to attack transport helicopters that supplied the Soviet bases on hills and mountaintops.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D
Twinkie wrote:
Well… he is articulate. I would guess that his verbal SAT score was pretty good, math not so hot.
Jack D has generally been pretty coy about how he gets money, but it seems likely that he is a guy who uses words to manipulate other people without having to actually deal much with concrete physical reality.
Of course, in the society in which we live, such people feel superior to the mere fellows who make their soft lives possible.
But, as Herb Stein said, what can’t go on forever, won’t.
He has not been coy at all. He has said more than once that he is an attorney.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
I am skeptical of both Ukrainian and Russian claims in this war (and those of their respective fanboys online and, yes, the Western media). But Scott Ritter has a credibility problem of his own, even setting aside his personal issues.
His dismissal of Steven Sailer’s point about the apparent Russian shift in strategy – retreating from the Kiev and Chernigov areas – with ad hominem and appeal to self-authority (“Stay in your lane,” “I was with the Marines studying maneuver warfare”) and describing the clear Russian retreat as some sort of a brilliant Russian maneuver warfare that was intended all along doesn’t exactly paint him as a credible expert, but rather someone who has an invested prior position from which he is loath to budge.
Well, I am not some random internet troll and am someone has studied the origin of Soviet maneuver warfare doctrines (e.g. Tukhachevsky’s deep battle) and its real life iterations in “The Great Patriotic War” and the post-war years (esp. in contrast to the German counterparts). I am also acquainted with Bill Lind, one of the premier experts and proponents of an American-style of maneuver warfare for decades. For a while, I knew many at TRADOC and certainly consumed and researched everything it produced (esp. FM100-5 Operations).
And I find Ritter’s explanation and subsequent snippy comment to Mr. Sailer quite laughable… and damaging to his credibility at least as far as this war is concerned.
In the beginning of the war, along with many others, I expected the Russians to dominate the air in short order and reach Kiev rapidly, perhaps leading to the escape and/or collapse of the Ukrainian political leadership. I was wrong about that. I was both surprised by the lack of Russian military operational and tactical proficiency, given the increasing professionalization of its army and recent combat experiences, and the tenacity of the Ukrainian defenders and the political leadership: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-179-russia-ukraine-cont/#comment-5222662
Mr. Ritter should try altering his views when they turn out to be wrong, instead of dying on every hill along with his credibility.
And for the record, I still think the deck is heavily tilted in Russia’s favor.
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
https://postimg.cc/0rT6yNc2
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Griffin provides a temperature report for the previous week, indicating that the highs during some of the days were 15-17 C/60-63F. Indeed, there wasn't a single day with temperatures below freezing. If you think bodies lying in the road for THREE WEEKS at those sorts of temperatures aren't noticeable, you're deluded.Replies: @Anon, @utu, @PhysicistDave
While it did reach 15-17 C some days you’re wrong about none of the days being below freezing, in the same post it shows march 28 hitting -2C multiple times
Just being nitpicky
Real war is not a video game. In reality, not only is a howitzer crew extremely vulnerable to an infantry attack, the latter doesn't even actually have to attack the crew to defeat it. Partisans, guerillas, and such who attack the enemy army's fighting units don't live long in this world. An army is a living thing and requires a constant supply of mountains of food, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and so on. This is something most civilians just don't realize. Behind the action scenes on TV, there occurs a logistical operation of an enormous scope occurring behind the forward edge of battle. And no army in the world has enough armed manpower to adequately protect all the supply convoys.
Some people are under delusions that the Stinger-armed Mujeheddin were shooting down Soviet jets and attack helicopters in the Soviet-Afghan War and that's how the former chased the latter out. No, that'd have resulted in lots of dead Mujis and wasted Stingers. What actually happened was the Stingers were used - very opportunistically - to attack transport helicopters that supplied the Soviet bases on hills and mountaintops.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D
What a maroon. Also, he doesn’t want those he claims to sympathize with to have the means to personally defend themselves and jointly fight back, win or lose. It’s a shanda!
Jack, your therapist is waiting for your call:
If Putin had managed to arrange a couple million Syrian young men to invade Ukraine, one gets the impression that all our government and "journalist" establishment would be blabbing about the "diversity is our greatest strength" and how "Ukraine needs immigrants". There's little evidence that "the people of the Donbass" want any particular one thing. I don't claim any special knowledge of Ukraine--it's not my patch. But the Donbass is clearly *not* Crimea. The Donbass is not chock full of people who think they are Russians--much less explicitly want to be part of Russia. Just pulling up wikipedia suggests, exactly what the fighting there suggests--it's a muddle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast#Demographics
Strong majority Russian speaking -- 74%
Small majority ethnically Ukrainian -- 56%
My suspicion is that rural skews Ukrainian and the cities a bit more Russian. (The Donetsk city data seem to confirm this.)
My bias in to "who owns the place" is that the farmers come first. They are the primary producers. And if you are making a living off your land, you are relatively immobile. (The curse of farmers since settlement--the barbarians ride in and take your stuff ... what the "lord" hasn't already stolen.) In contrast, if you're a bureaucrat, an engineer, a trademan, a clerk in Donetsk and really feel you are "Russian" and do not like the Ukrainians wanting to join the EU and "be like Poland" ... you can just move your ass to Russia and do the same stuff.
(I have the same thoughts about the American separation. Take say Madison (Dane County). Yeah, come the AnotherDad referendum, it will vote to be in Rainbow America. But the joint is basically parasitic. It depends on all the farmers and dairymen and manufacturing employees and owners in the American part of Wisconsin to pay in taxes or come for medical treatment or send their kids to University of Wisconsin. Take away its supporting--and especially taxing--the primary producers and Madison simply can't support so many Rainbow hued parasites.)
In any case, there's obviously some reason, that Crimea has been peaceful and the Donbass has not. The two plausible ones are
A) The Russian army is in Crimea, Ukrainians are sacred to mess with it.
B) The Donbass is actually quite divided in sentiment and Crimea is not.
Both are in play, but i'll note even if you think it is basically "A" and "the people of the Donbass" actually do want to be part of Russia ... Putin had accomplished that by sending in the Russian army--openly--in February. (And you'll note, that did not start a war, nor did it kick off the big Western--sanctions--response. It may fire up these Russia haters in the American establishment, but most people in the European establishment understand Eastern Ukraine is a legit muddle.)
But Putin then trashed any opportunity for that situation to congeal. Putin didn't say "Hey, this is done. If the Ukrainian army attacks, we'll respond in kind. When Ukrainians are ready to be reasonable, we can sit down and talk about plebiscites and exchange of populations and getting Ukrainians and Russians into the respective nations they belong in. And then Ukrainians--if they see fit--can go join the EU and Russians who are not interested won't have to be part of it."
Instead, Putin invaded.
And the reason Putin didn't talk about it is because his interest is has never been in helping people have the borders they want--witness Grozny. No Putin's main interest is being a big swinging dick. Putin is a "what's mine is mine; what's yours is mine" kind of guy.Replies: @Abe, @HA, @Almost Missouri, @Anon
After 8 years of brutal civil war, Russian peacekeepers were invited by roughly 7 million Ukrainians who oppose the Kiev regime. Some 50,000 Ukrainians are fighting alongside the peacekeepers in an effort to end 8 years of bloodshed.
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Griffin provides a temperature report for the previous week, indicating that the highs during some of the days were 15-17 C/60-63F. Indeed, there wasn't a single day with temperatures below freezing. If you think bodies lying in the road for THREE WEEKS at those sorts of temperatures aren't noticeable, you're deluded.Replies: @Anon, @utu, @PhysicistDave
The graph of Kiev temperatures that only part was shown by Nick Griffin but now it does not show at TUR at all but the last 7 days of March appear in Sputnik can be found here:
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/ukraine/kyiv/historic?month=3&year=2022
For each day the graph shows min and max temps at 12am, 6am, 12pm and 6pm. From it I calculated daily averages and here I list daily min, avg and max in centigrades:
March 11: -8, -3.25, 0
Macrh 12: -5, -1.37, +4
March 13: -2, -1.3, -1
March 14: -2, +1.6, +6
March 15: -1, +4, +10
March 16: -4, -0.37, +4
March 17: -5, -1.5, +2
March 18: -5, -1.6, +2
March 19: -3, +1.1, +5
March 20: -1, +4, +9
March 21: +2, +10.5, +13
March 22: +5, +9.6, +15
March 23: +6, +11, +16
March 24: +2, +5.8, +8
March 25: +3, +7.3, +10
March 26: +4, +9, +15
March 27: +1, +2.6, +4
March 28: -2, +5.5, +15
March 29: +9, 13.1, +17
March 30: +4, +6.6, +9
March 31 : +4, +6, +7
____________________
4 days with avg T <0°C
8 days with avg T < 2°C
11 days with avg T < 4°C
15 days with avg T < 7°C
5 days with temp larger than 7°Ç
3 days with avg temp larger than 10°C
1 day with avg temp 13.1°C
Now look at what that Putin hack that you promote wrote:
Does his description is a good reflection of reality? Which statesmen of his are blatantly false and which are misleading?
The information in my pervious comment states that bodies in a morgue are kept in up to 4°C temperature for several weeks. 11 days out of 21 in 11-31 March period were below 4°C and only 6 days were over 7°C and only 3 days were over 10°C.
Furthermore it might be possible that temps in Kiev are higher than in Bucha due to urban island heat effect.
I am not en expert in body decomposition but neither are you nor Nick Griffin from Putin’s Sputnik.
Seriously, I haven't seen any bodies well enough to know what their state of decomposition is, but this is why independent forensic specialists need to be consulted before
President Johnson uses the torpedo attack as an excuse to send troops to IndochinaPresident Biden uses the atrocities as an excuse to send troops into the Ukraine.Replies: @utuhttps://www.ft.com/content/c5e376f9-7351-40d3-b058-1873b2ef1924Replies: @mc23, @Anonymous
It’s easy for Finland to avoid war with Russia because the Russians have already taken all they want from Finland.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/ukraine/kyiv/historic?month=3&year=2022
For each day the graph shows min and max temps at 12am, 6am, 12pm and 6pm. From it I calculated daily averages and here I list daily min, avg and max in centigrades:
March 11: -8, -3.25, 0
Macrh 12: -5, -1.37, +4
March 13: -2, -1.3, -1
March 14: -2, +1.6, +6
March 15: -1, +4, +10
March 16: -4, -0.37, +4
March 17: -5, -1.5, +2
March 18: -5, -1.6, +2
March 19: -3, +1.1, +5
March 20: -1, +4, +9
March 21: +2, +10.5, +13
March 22: +5, +9.6, +15
March 23: +6, +11, +16
March 24: +2, +5.8, +8
March 25: +3, +7.3, +10
March 26: +4, +9, +15
March 27: +1, +2.6, +4
March 28: -2, +5.5, +15
March 29: +9, 13.1, +17
March 30: +4, +6.6, +9
March 31 : +4, +6, +7
____________________
4 days with avg T <0°C
8 days with avg T < 2°C
11 days with avg T < 4°C
15 days with avg T < 7°C
5 days with temp larger than 7°Ç
3 days with avg temp larger than 10°C
1 day with avg temp 13.1°C
Now look at what that Putin hack that you promote wrote: Does his description is a good reflection of reality? Which statesmen of his are blatantly false and which are misleading?
The information in my pervious comment states that bodies in a morgue are kept in up to 4°C temperature for several weeks. 11 days out of 21 in 11-31 March period were below 4°C and only 6 days were over 7°C and only 3 days were over 10°C.
Furthermore it might be possible that temps in Kiev are higher than in Bucha due to urban island heat effect.
I am not en expert in body decomposition but neither are you nor Nick Griffin from Putin's Sputnik.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Chrisnonymous
utu wrote to Ron Unz:
But, as I have mentioned many times, I do have a close family member who is an expert — a pathologist — you know, those guys who run morgues?
In short, you are wrong (as usual!); Unz is right.
Specifically, the issue, according to my in-house pathologist, is how long in terms of cumulative time, the bodies were at the higher temps. Your chart shows a lot of such time. The cool temps prior to March 20 do not “help.”
That just means that the really nasty stuff happens largely after March 20 (remember that some of the reports claim the satellite picture was on March 19 anyway).
Again, as usual, you are wrong.
They observe following rates of decomposition of pig bodies: No photographs in the article were included but what picture do we get from the article? Nothing dramatic. Bloating did not begin until the 9th day at the earliest when temperatures were much higher than in Bucha. Certainly the picture is very different than what you and the alleged pathologist relative of yours are trying to paint: "plenty of time for the bodies to change in very, very nasty ways.
Neither you nor the alleged pathologist relative of yours have seen the undressed bodies or even their faces in Bucha. You guys haven not seen even a square cm of their flesh. And yet you come with certitude as if that mortician of yours was in Bucha. The certitude of yours comes from your love of Putin, PutinistDave. It is all faith based with you when it comes to Russia.Replies: @PhysicistDave
2) The world is not always a Holocaust morality play or an LAPD morality play to me. I'll give you a complex answer, because the situation is complex. For example... Just read the simplistic hysterics here on your part. "Another genocide"? How many Ukrainians have died in this war so far? "The heart of Europe"? Really, Ukraine?
In reality, you and your opponents here (whom you call "Putin fanboys") are basically the two sides of the same coin. You project all your insecurities and moral panic (mostly from our domestic context) and inject them into a foreign conflict. Well, I am neither a Putin fanboy who sees him as the Savior of the White Race nor a Jew who sees the Holocaust morality play in everything, so, yeah, my answers are going to strike you (and your opponents) as ambivalent. So I tend to concentrate on technical issues and also on "lessons learned" for my own country, you know, the political entity and the nation that is the most important to me.
You should try it sometime.
Also, I note here that you like to pick rhetorical arguments with me, but don't respond when I rebut your shallow points about, for example, armaments, military technical issues, or the history of civilian firearm ownership in Europe. You should try acknowledging when your knowledge deficiency has been corrected. Not only would you come off as more reasonable and gracious, you also wouldn't come off like a crazed ideologue who is only interested in winning word games against others.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jack D
Twinkie wrote to Jack D:
Re this question of “Putin fanboys”: I don’t think there are many people here in Sailer’s comments (I don’t know about other parts of unz.com) that could fairly be called “Putin fanboys,” do you?
I myself have been labeled a “Putin fanboy” simply because I try to understand Putin’s motivations, because I think the West could have avoided this tragedy, and because I think the best that can now happen — especially for Ukraine but also for Russia and the West — is a negotiated peaces. Yet, from the get-go I have said that, had Putin asked my advice, I would have recommended that he go at most into the Dnbass and, even then, I am doubtful that the operation is in the interest of the Russian people.
And of course a lot of those here who have been labeled “Putin fanboys” are libertarians — I am a libertarian anarchist myself — hardly the sort of people likely to be filled with deep admiration for Vladimir Putin!
For some reason, those who scream about “Putin fanboys” seem to be people who simply want this horrific tragedy to drag on indefinitely — either because they have some bizarrely deep hatred of Russia or because they bear some fealty to the neocon Deep State or perhaps simply because they really are “war-porn” addicts, people who love seeing reports of dead human beings.
But are there really any “Putin fanboys” here in Sailer’s comment section?
A - Russian regime change to a classically libertarianish democracy
B - Russian regime change to a current-year-globohomo-permanent-lawfare-US-satellite "democracy"
C - Russian regime return to pre-2022 Putin regime
and I concluded that that A > C > B. If this makes me a Putin fanboy, so be it.
(I had some other outcomes in there, too, like regime change to military junta following coup. The point I was making was that, given Russia and various realities of reality, Putin is not so bad for us or for most Russian citizens, and since converting Russia into a true limited government, rule of law state is probably the least conceivable outcome in the foreseeable future, we are better off trying to play nice with Putin to (a) draw Russia out of China's orbit and (b) try to ensure peaceful desirable transfer of power when Putin goes out.)Replies: @PhysicistDave
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Griffin provides a temperature report for the previous week, indicating that the highs during some of the days were 15-17 C/60-63F. Indeed, there wasn't a single day with temperatures below freezing. If you think bodies lying in the road for THREE WEEKS at those sorts of temperatures aren't noticeable, you're deluded.Replies: @Anon, @utu, @PhysicistDave
Anyone who wants to try to sort out the March 9-11 vs. March 19 confusion on the dates of the satellite pictures might find this article in the Times of Israel useful. I cannot find an article on the NYT site that summarizes all of this, and the NYT tends to put up a paywall anyway.
As I noted above, the date may be moot: even if we assume the date is March 19 and accept the temperature data kindly provided by utu, that is plenty of time for the bodies to change in very, very nasty ways.
In the following article
the decomposition of dead pigs was studied in Australia in winter months when temperatures were
which are much much higher temperatures than in Kiev in March 2022 where the mean temperature was around +4.3° C and the lowest temperature was -8° C and the highest temperature was +17° C. Keep in mind that +4° C temperature is kept in morgues where bodies are stored for several weeks.
They observe following rates of decomposition of pig bodies:
No photographs in the article were included but what picture do we get from the article? Nothing dramatic. Bloating did not begin until the 9th day at the earliest when temperatures were much higher than in Bucha. Certainly the picture is very different than what you and the alleged pathologist relative of yours are trying to paint: “plenty of time for the bodies to change in very, very nasty ways.
Neither you nor the alleged pathologist relative of yours have seen the undressed bodies or even their faces in Bucha. You guys haven not seen even a square cm of their flesh. And yet you come with certitude as if that mortician of yours was in Bucha. The certitude of yours comes from your love of Putin, PutinistDave. It is all faith based with you when it comes to Russia.
"Remember everyone: utu is an amoral monster who gets off on the idea of large numbers of innocent people dying pointlessly. "
I do not interact with psychopaths.Replies: @utu, @HA
German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians in Bucha
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d
DER SPIEGEL has learned that German intelligence intercepted radio traffic from the Russian military regarding the murder of civilians in Bucha. It appears that such atrocities were part of the plan.
The intercepted comments now appear to completely refute Russia’s denials. DER SPIEGEL has learned that the BND briefed parliamentarians on Wednesday about its findings.
I myself have been labeled a "Putin fanboy" simply because I try to understand Putin's motivations, because I think the West could have avoided this tragedy, and because I think the best that can now happen -- especially for Ukraine but also for Russia and the West -- is a negotiated peaces. Yet, from the get-go I have said that, had Putin asked my advice, I would have recommended that he go at most into the Dnbass and, even then, I am doubtful that the operation is in the interest of the Russian people.
And of course a lot of those here who have been labeled "Putin fanboys" are libertarians -- I am a libertarian anarchist myself -- hardly the sort of people likely to be filled with deep admiration for Vladimir Putin!
For some reason, those who scream about "Putin fanboys" seem to be people who simply want this horrific tragedy to drag on indefinitely -- either because they have some bizarrely deep hatred of Russia or because they bear some fealty to the neocon Deep State or perhaps simply because they really are "war-porn" addicts, people who love seeing reports of dead human beings.
But are there really any "Putin fanboys" here in Sailer's comment section?Replies: @Chrisnonymous
A few days back, I posted a list of possible future outcomes, among which were
A – Russian regime change to a classically libertarianish democracy
B – Russian regime change to a current-year-globohomo-permanent-lawfare-US-satellite “democracy”
C – Russian regime return to pre-2022 Putin regime
and I concluded that that A > C > B. If this makes me a Putin fanboy, so be it.
(I had some other outcomes in there, too, like regime change to military junta following coup. The point I was making was that, given Russia and various realities of reality, Putin is not so bad for us or for most Russian citizens, and since converting Russia into a true limited government, rule of law state is probably the least conceivable outcome in the foreseeable future, we are better off trying to play nice with Putin to (a) draw Russia out of China’s orbit and (b) try to ensure peaceful desirable transfer of power when Putin goes out.)
As John Quincy Adams said, "But [America] goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own."
I am beginning to wonder if the members of our ruling elite and a number of the commenters here actually want a nuclear war that will destroy civilization. Maybe the prospect of their losing power is so painful to them that they would rather destroy it all in one grand Götterdämmerung.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/ukraine/kyiv/historic?month=3&year=2022
For each day the graph shows min and max temps at 12am, 6am, 12pm and 6pm. From it I calculated daily averages and here I list daily min, avg and max in centigrades:
March 11: -8, -3.25, 0
Macrh 12: -5, -1.37, +4
March 13: -2, -1.3, -1
March 14: -2, +1.6, +6
March 15: -1, +4, +10
March 16: -4, -0.37, +4
March 17: -5, -1.5, +2
March 18: -5, -1.6, +2
March 19: -3, +1.1, +5
March 20: -1, +4, +9
March 21: +2, +10.5, +13
March 22: +5, +9.6, +15
March 23: +6, +11, +16
March 24: +2, +5.8, +8
March 25: +3, +7.3, +10
March 26: +4, +9, +15
March 27: +1, +2.6, +4
March 28: -2, +5.5, +15
March 29: +9, 13.1, +17
March 30: +4, +6.6, +9
March 31 : +4, +6, +7
____________________
4 days with avg T <0°C
8 days with avg T < 2°C
11 days with avg T < 4°C
15 days with avg T < 7°C
5 days with temp larger than 7°Ç
3 days with avg temp larger than 10°C
1 day with avg temp 13.1°C
Now look at what that Putin hack that you promote wrote: Does his description is a good reflection of reality? Which statesmen of his are blatantly false and which are misleading?
The information in my pervious comment states that bodies in a morgue are kept in up to 4°C temperature for several weeks. 11 days out of 21 in 11-31 March period were below 4°C and only 6 days were over 7°C and only 3 days were over 10°C.
Furthermore it might be possible that temps in Kiev are higher than in Bucha due to urban island heat effect.
I am not en expert in body decomposition but neither are you nor Nick Griffin from Putin's Sputnik.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Chrisnonymous
Good work calculating average temperatures. Now please tell your local health department that restaurants can leave their meat and fish out in the heat for part of each day, as long as their daily average is low!
Seriously, I haven’t seen any bodies well enough to know what their state of decomposition is, but this is why independent forensic specialists need to be consulted before
President Johnson uses the torpedo attack as an excuse to send troops to IndochinaPresident Biden uses the atrocities as an excuse to send troops into the Ukraine.Not funny. Anyway, why don't you check the paper I linked in #211 comment. It is not about restaurants but about decomposing bodies when temperature fluctuate during Australian winter: Not seriously, we don't need forensic specialists because PutinistDave has a pathologist in his family who already ruled on the case of Bucha bodies. Sputnik article republished by Ron Unz must be correct, so says PutinistDave.
They observe following rates of decomposition of pig bodies: No photographs in the article were included but what picture do we get from the article? Nothing dramatic. Bloating did not begin until the 9th day at the earliest when temperatures were much higher than in Bucha. Certainly the picture is very different than what you and the alleged pathologist relative of yours are trying to paint: "plenty of time for the bodies to change in very, very nasty ways.
Neither you nor the alleged pathologist relative of yours have seen the undressed bodies or even their faces in Bucha. You guys haven not seen even a square cm of their flesh. And yet you come with certitude as if that mortician of yours was in Bucha. The certitude of yours comes from your love of Putin, PutinistDave. It is all faith based with you when it comes to Russia.Replies: @PhysicistDave
In accordance with your bizarrely evil comment on another thread, my response is simply:
“Remember everyone: utu is an amoral monster who gets off on the idea of large numbers of innocent people dying pointlessly. ”
I do not interact with psychopaths.
His dismissal of Steven Sailer's point about the apparent Russian shift in strategy - retreating from the Kiev and Chernigov areas - with ad hominem and appeal to self-authority ("Stay in your lane," "I was with the Marines studying maneuver warfare") and describing the clear Russian retreat as some sort of a brilliant Russian maneuver warfare that was intended all along doesn't exactly paint him as a credible expert, but rather someone who has an invested prior position from which he is loath to budge.
Well, I am not some random internet troll and am someone has studied the origin of Soviet maneuver warfare doctrines (e.g. Tukhachevsky's deep battle) and its real life iterations in "The Great Patriotic War" and the post-war years (esp. in contrast to the German counterparts). I am also acquainted with Bill Lind, one of the premier experts and proponents of an American-style of maneuver warfare for decades. For a while, I knew many at TRADOC and certainly consumed and researched everything it produced (esp. FM100-5 Operations).
And I find Ritter's explanation and subsequent snippy comment to Mr. Sailer quite laughable... and damaging to his credibility at least as far as this war is concerned.
In the beginning of the war, along with many others, I expected the Russians to dominate the air in short order and reach Kiev rapidly, perhaps leading to the escape and/or collapse of the Ukrainian political leadership. I was wrong about that. I was both surprised by the lack of Russian military operational and tactical proficiency, given the increasing professionalization of its army and recent combat experiences, and the tenacity of the Ukrainian defenders and the political leadership: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-179-russia-ukraine-cont/#comment-5222662
Mr. Ritter should try altering his views when they turn out to be wrong, instead of dying on every hill along with his credibility.
And for the record, I still think the deck is heavily tilted in Russia's favor.Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Ron Unz
I saw Ritter on a The Duran interview claim that Russia’s Kiev feint would go down in history as one of the great strategic moves of all time. I thought that was pretty crazy. I can believe maybe that they didn’t intend to take Kiev outright, but it looks like something didn’t work out there. Why does Ritter take this view? Strange. I think he likes being important and since the MSM won’t have him on, he overstates things for outlets like The Duran. It’s too bad, because what he has to say about the shenanigans that go on behind the scenes of policy -making is important and very credible in itself.
A - Russian regime change to a classically libertarianish democracy
B - Russian regime change to a current-year-globohomo-permanent-lawfare-US-satellite "democracy"
C - Russian regime return to pre-2022 Putin regime
and I concluded that that A > C > B. If this makes me a Putin fanboy, so be it.
(I had some other outcomes in there, too, like regime change to military junta following coup. The point I was making was that, given Russia and various realities of reality, Putin is not so bad for us or for most Russian citizens, and since converting Russia into a true limited government, rule of law state is probably the least conceivable outcome in the foreseeable future, we are better off trying to play nice with Putin to (a) draw Russia out of China's orbit and (b) try to ensure peaceful desirable transfer of power when Putin goes out.)Replies: @PhysicistDave
Chrisnonymous wrote to me:
Indeed.
As John Quincy Adams said, “But [America] goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.”
I am beginning to wonder if the members of our ruling elite and a number of the commenters here actually want a nuclear war that will destroy civilization. Maybe the prospect of their losing power is so painful to them that they would rather destroy it all in one grand Götterdämmerung.
I’ve heard a lot of newspapers thumping on driveways at 4am and was never all that concerned they were gunshots.
Maybe if I were really drunk I’d imagine that.
In the Battle of Kiev, Putin just let the Ukrainians kick his ass in order to be sporting.
You are delusional if you think that Ukraine will win this war. Even with the CIA providing NATO material to the Ukes, in a clear act of war, it is only a matter of time before the Ukes fold. This will come about after they are starving and with no bullets left for their rifles and not missiles for their javelins, and after their cities have been shelled into oblivion and they have nowhere to live or to hide. NATO is stupidly prolonging the agony of Ukraine by providing a life supply to them, not to mention inciting Russia's wrath and a dirtect retaliation against NATO.Replies: @Steve Sailer
(This was back during the days when the Sunday paper ran several hundred pages.)
But evidently someone at the Times investigated the matter and determined that the delivery person ran over the dog.Replies: @Steve Sailer
There was a Sunday New York Times in the 1960s that was over 1000 pages. Some L.A. Times in the next few decades came close.
By my count, roughly 100 of those pages are devoted to classified advertising. The Calendar tabloid runs 96 pages. The daily Olympics section (separate from the regular Sports section) runs 44 pages.
Here's a slideshow:
https://streamable.com/wkc08jReplies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous
"Remember everyone: utu is an amoral monster who gets off on the idea of large numbers of innocent people dying pointlessly. "
I do not interact with psychopaths.Replies: @utu, @HA
“I do not interact with psychopaths.” – PutinistDave, You can’t bail out from interactions with reality and it is me who represents it. You lost your argument about the hypothetical state of decomposition of bodies in Bucha. It seems that the pathologist in your family was just another confabulation of yours just like that wife of yours who was the only witness of your exact predictions of what Putin would do. You may even find a psychopathologist somewhere in your family because you badly need him.
Really?
Under these circumstances many innocents will get killed. It's part of the equation. It's one reason the charge of waging a war of aggression is prosecuted as a war crime. You create a set of circumstances that make random violence against unavoidabe.
If only we held trials for those who didn't make a reasonable effort to contain or prevent a war. Putin would be at the head of the list but there's a lot people in the US who should at least get community service, like everyone who urged confronting and destablizing Russia.
Look at the refugees and destruction. Unavoidable? Maybe, but in this case there truly was no such thing as a bad peace and a good war.Replies: @J.Ross
You misspelled “Victoria Nuland” but other than that yeah.
Real war is not a video game. In reality, not only is a howitzer crew extremely vulnerable to an infantry attack, the latter doesn't even actually have to attack the crew to defeat it. Partisans, guerillas, and such who attack the enemy army's fighting units don't live long in this world. An army is a living thing and requires a constant supply of mountains of food, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and so on. This is something most civilians just don't realize. Behind the action scenes on TV, there occurs a logistical operation of an enormous scope occurring behind the forward edge of battle. And no army in the world has enough armed manpower to adequately protect all the supply convoys.
Some people are under delusions that the Stinger-armed Mujeheddin were shooting down Soviet jets and attack helicopters in the Soviet-Afghan War and that's how the former chased the latter out. No, that'd have resulted in lots of dead Mujis and wasted Stingers. What actually happened was the Stingers were used - very opportunistically - to attack transport helicopters that supplied the Soviet bases on hills and mountaintops.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D
What I was saying is that the Russian tactic is to pound the city and its inhabitants to rubble. That’s how they won in Checnya.
South Africans had it right with their grand apartheid. Different peoples need different territory.
Russians didn't win in Chechnya, because they bombed Grozny to rubble. It took two bloody wars and years of counterinsurgency to do so (understand that Chechnya is highly mountainous and is not at all highly urbanized) and it also required the defection of Akhmad Kadyrov and his militia who fell out with the Wahhabists and Jihadis.Replies: @Jack D
His dismissal of Steven Sailer's point about the apparent Russian shift in strategy - retreating from the Kiev and Chernigov areas - with ad hominem and appeal to self-authority ("Stay in your lane," "I was with the Marines studying maneuver warfare") and describing the clear Russian retreat as some sort of a brilliant Russian maneuver warfare that was intended all along doesn't exactly paint him as a credible expert, but rather someone who has an invested prior position from which he is loath to budge.
Well, I am not some random internet troll and am someone has studied the origin of Soviet maneuver warfare doctrines (e.g. Tukhachevsky's deep battle) and its real life iterations in "The Great Patriotic War" and the post-war years (esp. in contrast to the German counterparts). I am also acquainted with Bill Lind, one of the premier experts and proponents of an American-style of maneuver warfare for decades. For a while, I knew many at TRADOC and certainly consumed and researched everything it produced (esp. FM100-5 Operations).
And I find Ritter's explanation and subsequent snippy comment to Mr. Sailer quite laughable... and damaging to his credibility at least as far as this war is concerned.
In the beginning of the war, along with many others, I expected the Russians to dominate the air in short order and reach Kiev rapidly, perhaps leading to the escape and/or collapse of the Ukrainian political leadership. I was wrong about that. I was both surprised by the lack of Russian military operational and tactical proficiency, given the increasing professionalization of its army and recent combat experiences, and the tenacity of the Ukrainian defenders and the political leadership: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-179-russia-ukraine-cont/#comment-5222662
Mr. Ritter should try altering his views when they turn out to be wrong, instead of dying on every hill along with his credibility.
And for the record, I still think the deck is heavily tilted in Russia's favor.Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Ron Unz
I hadn’t followed any of those exchanges. I’m very surprised that Ritter was commenting on this website. Or was it on Twitter or in some other venue?
I certainly don’t regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter’s points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It’s quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they’d gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he’d remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn’t have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.
Ritter's childish little snit took place on Twitter, and was subsequently reposted here.
Jack D has generally been pretty coy about how he gets money, but it seems likely that he is a guy who uses words to manipulate other people without having to actually deal much with concrete physical reality.
Of course, in the society in which we live, such people feel superior to the mere fellows who make their soft lives possible.
But, as Herb Stein said, what can't go on forever, won't.Replies: @Jack D, @kaganovitch
You’re wrong. My SAT scores were within 20 points of each other and both were high. My kids were the same. Jews are strong in both math and verbal as are S Asians.
Seriously, I haven't seen any bodies well enough to know what their state of decomposition is, but this is why independent forensic specialists need to be consulted before
President Johnson uses the torpedo attack as an excuse to send troops to IndochinaPresident Biden uses the atrocities as an excuse to send troops into the Ukraine.Replies: @utu“Now please tell your local health department that restaurants can leave their meat and fish out in the heat for part of each day, as long as their daily average is low!”
Not funny. Anyway, why don’t you check the paper I linked in #211 comment. It is not about restaurants but about decomposing bodies when temperature fluctuate during Australian winter:
Not seriously, we don’t need forensic specialists because PutinistDave has a pathologist in his family who already ruled on the case of Bucha bodies. Sputnik article republished by Ron Unz must be correct, so says PutinistDave.
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
If Ukraine is the Russian`s absolute best effort at damage control I’d hate see their worst.
That’s true. I should have added the other elements that can be discovered by forensic medical examination, not just the bodies of the victims, but their circumstances. Were the victims killed in place and when and by what means, or were the victims killed and by what means, and then moved.
Other evidence can also be gathered on the scene, and testimony of witnesses, of course.
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
If that was the plan, it also failed. Because the Russian forces are retreating from Kiev, and the Ukrainian forces near the Donbas are still unsurrounded.
The Ukrainians would have had to keep significant troops near Kiev no matter what, because there were large numbers of Russian soldiers to the North in a position to attack towards Kiev at any moment. In other words the Russians could have “diverted Ukrainian reserves” from Donbas even if they had not attacked Kiev at all. Instead they attacked, failed, and are now retreating. It’s a defeat, pure and simple. Doesn’t mean the Russians won’t eventually win the war, but it is not going well for them.
Whatever. I am no fan of the Current Year US regime but Putin’s tanks are in Ukraine not the other way around.
“Feint” is very much the wrong word to describe what the Russians did. The correct word is more like “menace.” The Russian strategy was to harass and interdict Kiev long enough to control the political situation and prevent any effective resistance from being organized from there. It’s not like Russia could afford to just ignore Kiev. They came prepared to deal with whatever mess the city might cause, but once it became clear that Kiev was effectively helpless, they turned their attention elsewhere.
I could be wrong but I believe the correct answer is still zero.Replies: @Harry Baldwin
Wasn’t the Mexican-American War ignited by a dispute over the placement of the southern border of Texas?
Details here: https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-ushistory1/chapter/war-with-mexico-1846-1848/
You're correct! My broader point still stands though. The US doesn't go to war over borders, at least not our own.
A half-dozen years before it broke out, Harvard man Richard Henry Dana published a bestseller, "Two Years Before the Mast," in which he described the various pleasant places he visited in Mexican California while a sailor. The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it's quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world ... and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.
Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence had a fair amount to due with the Proclamation of 1763 to close off American settlement in the Ohio River Valley until London could figure out what's going on with the Indian tribes and the settlers. And we got Puerto Rico through conquest, which turned out to be not as good a deal as California.
Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase -- Missouri Purchase, Gadsden, Alaska -- negotiation (resolution of 54-40 controversy), or subterfuge (Hawaii).Replies: @Zero Philosopher, @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave, @Mike Tre
2) The world is not always a Holocaust morality play or an LAPD morality play to me. I'll give you a complex answer, because the situation is complex. For example... Just read the simplistic hysterics here on your part. "Another genocide"? How many Ukrainians have died in this war so far? "The heart of Europe"? Really, Ukraine?
In reality, you and your opponents here (whom you call "Putin fanboys") are basically the two sides of the same coin. You project all your insecurities and moral panic (mostly from our domestic context) and inject them into a foreign conflict. Well, I am neither a Putin fanboy who sees him as the Savior of the White Race nor a Jew who sees the Holocaust morality play in everything, so, yeah, my answers are going to strike you (and your opponents) as ambivalent. So I tend to concentrate on technical issues and also on "lessons learned" for my own country, you know, the political entity and the nation that is the most important to me.
You should try it sometime.
Also, I note here that you like to pick rhetorical arguments with me, but don't respond when I rebut your shallow points about, for example, armaments, military technical issues, or the history of civilian firearm ownership in Europe. You should try acknowledging when your knowledge deficiency has been corrected. Not only would you come off as more reasonable and gracious, you also wouldn't come off like a crazed ideologue who is only interested in winning word games against others.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Jack D
Absolutely not. The Russian Army, the LAPD and the SS are all types of armed forces so it’s a fair question to ask whether the actions of Russian Army more closely resembled one or the other. Our host, BTW, seemed to think it was more like the LAPD and that the Russians were shooting people only out of mistaken identity in a panic situation.
Now since he wrote that, further evidence of SS like behavior has come out. German intelligence was apparently listening to the Russian coms in Bucha ( the fact that the Russians have unencrypted coms is further indication of what clowns they are – even the Nazis had Enigma). In these communications, there are orders issued that state: “First you interrogate soldiers, then you shoot them.” AFAIK, the LAPD never does this. Even the SS, for the most part, did not shoot American and British POWs (but the Russians did execute the Polish officer corps at Katyn so I suppose you are right that the Russian Army is behaving most like the Russian Army – it’s just that the Russian Army is WORSE than the SS in some respects).
Apparently the Wagner Group played a leading role in the atrocities. More to the point, you could compare the Russian Army to the Wehrmacht and the Wagner Group is the SS.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d
The people who are quibbling over whether the publicly release satellite images are real/fake and what day they were taking on and whether the satellites were even overhead on those days (the quibbles are almost certainly false and just more Russian disinformation) are fighting the wrong battle because the intelligence services have their own satellites and probably have more and better images. Such disinformation might serve to create FUD now (which is the point – Russian disinformation isn’t really supposed to convince people in the West other than a handful of Putin fanbois – it’s supposed to make you think “we really don’t know for sure what is happening” and it works remarkably well in that role as you can see here) but at the war crimes trials evidence with a formal chain of custody will be presented and will be correlated with radio transmissions and forensic evidence and maybe even testimony from underlings who are captured, etc.
The Russian UN Ambassador (who BTW looks and sounds like a cartoon caricature of a Russian official) is clearly nervous and stumbles over a question about the bodies on the street in Bucha:
He makes a Kinsley Gaffe:
He is probably nervous about whether he is going to get dragged into the war crimes trials. Von Ribbentrop ended up on the gallows.
Satellite imagery was also key in Bellingcat's analysis "proving" that gas attacks came from the Syrian army.
Reality: maybe Russians are responsible, but no satellite imagery presented by the NYT, DOS, or CIA can be trusted. Like that's going to happen! Even if it did, you seem to be under the hold of some fantasy in which Putin is connected to everything bad that happens in the same way the Nazi hierarchy was connected to the Holocaust. LOL. There is no Ukrainian genocide. If there were Russian atrocities, they were likely the result of local commanders or lack of discipline. If there had been a higher up order to shoot Ukrainians, the bodies wouldn't be randomly strewn around city streets and various places. This is not to say Putin has the high ethical standards we want in a world leader, but poisoning political opponents and pointlessly and counterproductively slaughtering lots of civilians are two different things. Show me the pattern of Russian military units consistently leaving behind similar conditions when they withdraw, and I'll consider jumping on your bandwagon.
Meanwhile the Russian Army is the regular armed forces of a sovereign modern nation-state, LAPD is the police department of an American city, and the SS was a paramilitary arm of the Nazi Party in World War II Germany. They are all quite different beasts. They are/were selected and trained differently, have/had radically different rules of engagement, and perform/performed extremely different functions. By the way, when you refer to the SS, you are likely (unwittingly) referring the Waffen-SS, the actual armed combat component of the SS. It helps to be precise, instead of relying on hysterical slogans. By your logic, almost all armed forces engage in "SS like behavior," because there are varying (quite varying, obviously) degrees of killing of civilians, prisoners, as well as atrocities/war crimes committed by national armed forces. Need I remind you of Abu Ghraib and numerous other instances of contraventions of rules of war our own military has engaged in? And that's the most lawyered-up military force in human history. The IDF routinely engages in similar behaviors, including bulldozing of civilian homes of families of Palestinian attackers (guilt-by-association) and "interrogations with moderate physical pressure," i.e. torture of prisoners. Is the IDF also "SS-like"?
Bad things happen in war, sometimes even done by otherwise good people who are scared, angry, stressed, etc. Not every one of those instances is "SS-like" behavior (the SS engaged in organized war crimes at a massive scale). You need to take a breath and make sure all the reports you see that seem to valid your priors turn out to be true in the end.
More like the Red Army.
The ground rules of war vs. diplomacy in the 19th century were different (Gen. Grant BTW regarded the Mexican War as a shameful land grab). What Russia is doing or attempting to do in Ukraine would have been entirely within the norms of 19th century conduct (and many centuries before that) for any powerful country with weaker neighbors. Putin in fact is acting EXACTLY like a 19th century Czar. From his words and deeds (and not by mind reading) it is clear that he regards himself as the restored Czar of All the Russias (this btw was the title of the previous Czar, the Russias being Russia itself, White Russia (Belarus) and “Little Russia” (Ukraine)).
The problem is that Russia is not doing this in 1822 but in 2022, on a continent where perhaps 30 million people or more died in two world wars in the previous century and in a world where nuclear weapons promise the possibility of even greater losses. (The greatest estimates of deaths in the Mexican War on both sides and counting civilian deaths and deaths from disease still don’t break 50,000). The implicit bargain at the end of WWII is that such wars for territory would no longer be permissible. Once you open the door to historical grievances and border disputes being a valid basis for war in Europe, the possibilities for endless war emerge – German has grievances against Russia (and Poland) regarding the lost territories of E. Prussia. Poland has grievances against Ukraine and Lithuania. Romania has grievances against Russia. Hungary has grievances against everyone.
We are US-centric here at iSteve -- this offers insight into why UK, France, Germany (!), Poland, Czech Republic are so worried.
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
And do you know why Putin haven’t destroyed water supplies in Ukrainian cities, yet? He could, right? And he should have according to Putin fanboy strategists. It is actually very simple: Putin wants Ukrainian women to be washed clean before being raped (or doing the welcoming sex) by the liberating Russian soldiers. Now you know. Putin is very smart. Never doubt in Putin.
I don't know whether his argument is correct, but it seems an interesting and plausible analysis I haven't previously heard.
Regarding the main topic of this thread, Ritter was apparently unbanned on Twitter, but here's a Youtube interview from late yesterday in which he explained his Bucha Massacre analysis in considerable detail:
https://youtu.be/izeA9La1aNY?t=1070Replies: @Jack D
“You know the Ukraine never had those nukes. They were Soviet nukes always under Russian control.”
SOVIET nukes. Read what you just said. These were Soviet nukes situated in Ukraine. The question of who got what when the Soviet Union dissolved took some haggling. Those security assurances were what resulted. I guess Russia could have pulled the old “this was always mine and so I get to have it all” routine (kind of like they are now), but instead they chose to put their evidently worthless signature onto a document that we co-signed. And so here we are. Please try and keep up.
“Do you give Steve a lot of donations so he put you on auto approval?”
Evidently, I get about as much auto-approval as PaperbackWriter, PhysicistDave, BuzzMohawk and any number of Putin’s useful idiots and trolls whose replies to my comments seem to appear quickly enough. Do you whine about their unfair advantages, too? Or have you ever considered doing something a little more constructive, say, taking a screen name other than Anonymous287?
Superficially, your arguments have the shape and form of logic, but it’s really just emotional blackmail over and over again.
You have a conclusion you want to get to. It’s motivated reasoning. You browbeat people who have no obligation to put their lives at risk for your various schemes. We don’t owe you anything.Replies: @HA
“Oh, it’s Ha ha ha again, clamoring about this “promise” that NATO should invite Ukraine into the club.”
No, what is with you people? The promise in question had nothing to do with NATO. It was limited to respecting Ukraine’s boundaries, and agreeing not to use military force to settle disputes. Both of those clauses have since been flagrantly voided by Russia. But our signature was on that document, too, as it was very much in our interest to get Ukraine to sign as well, since it meant they would peacefully give up their nukes in exchange, which they did. We don’t need to make any apologies about having helped make that happen at what was a very unstable and precarious point in world history. No “neo-con meddling” was needed to justify our abiding interest in that peaceful exchange, even to the extent it involved obligations that we now have been asked to fulfill. Them’s the breaks.
I’m not sure what agreement we signed with Cuba in order to get them to give up their nukes…oh wait, I am indeed sure — there was no agreement. So never mind. Your argument is too pointless to continue trying to make sense of.
https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Thompson-submachine-gun-vintage-advertisement.jpg Love the passive tense there. Thought so by whom? Men without chests like you?The Bill of Rights is pretty explicit in protecting gun rights and the Second Amendment was never about the National Guard which did not come into being until the early 20th Century. The legal history of the term "militia" is pretty clear and referred to a combination of an organized militia and an unorganized militia, the whole body of eligible voters (in the past free, propertied white males of adult age, now all citizens over age 18).Replies: @James Forrestal, @kaganovitch
It was only with the monstrous rise of the Administrative State after World War II that gun restrictions became draconian (prior to 1934, for example, Americans could walk into a sporting goods store and order a Thompson submachine gun by mail, no background checks needed).
Heck, in the 1960’s you could still buy a Solothurn 20 mm.AA cannon by mail order. A part of John Ross’s “Unintended Consequences” novel revolves on this.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/KleinsAd1963.jpg
He, being somewhat short of funds, got the $19.95 Italian bolt action carbine.
Jack D has generally been pretty coy about how he gets money, but it seems likely that he is a guy who uses words to manipulate other people without having to actually deal much with concrete physical reality.
Of course, in the society in which we live, such people feel superior to the mere fellows who make their soft lives possible.
But, as Herb Stein said, what can't go on forever, won't.Replies: @Jack D, @kaganovitch
Jack D has generally been pretty coy about how he gets money, but it seems likely that he is a guy who uses words to manipulate other people without having to actually deal much with concrete physical reality.
He has not been coy at all. He has said more than once that he is an attorney.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
“Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.”
No, that simply isn’t true. Plenty of articles speak of the stench and other signs of decomposition evident on the corpses. Kiev isn’t Miami. Bodies don’t start “stenching” in a day or two. From Reuters (a partner of TASS!)
Plenty of other articles indicate plenty of signs of decomposition:
It's kind of pointless to contradict the Russian denials because the Russia supporters will just invent more lies to cover their last lies as fast as you debunk them. First the bodies weren't there at all until the Russians left and then when the satellite photos showed that was a lie and that they were there for some time, the satellite photos were "fake". If the BBC reporters say that there is a smell, then the BBC reporters are lying. There is always an answer for everything.
As I mentioned in another post, the purpose of such denials is not really to convince the unconvinced in the West (and the small number of convinced obviously need no convincing - they are going to buy into Russian lies no matter how thin their credibility) . It is to sow FUD (at least temporarily) among a much larger group so that people who are on the fence and maybe don't want to have their lives disrupted by losing access to Russian gas have a face saving way of saying, "Well, the Russians are denying it and we don't know for sure what the truth is, blah, blah, blah so how can we impose sanctions based on something that we don't know for sure is true." There is no level of proof that is going to satisfy those who don't want to be satisfied.
Upton Sinclair said “it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Now since he wrote that, further evidence of SS like behavior has come out. German intelligence was apparently listening to the Russian coms in Bucha ( the fact that the Russians have unencrypted coms is further indication of what clowns they are - even the Nazis had Enigma). In these communications, there are orders issued that state: "First you interrogate soldiers, then you shoot them." AFAIK, the LAPD never does this. Even the SS, for the most part, did not shoot American and British POWs (but the Russians did execute the Polish officer corps at Katyn so I suppose you are right that the Russian Army is behaving most like the Russian Army - it's just that the Russian Army is WORSE than the SS in some respects).
Apparently the Wagner Group played a leading role in the atrocities. More to the point, you could compare the Russian Army to the Wehrmacht and the Wagner Group is the SS.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d
The people who are quibbling over whether the publicly release satellite images are real/fake and what day they were taking on and whether the satellites were even overhead on those days (the quibbles are almost certainly false and just more Russian disinformation) are fighting the wrong battle because the intelligence services have their own satellites and probably have more and better images. Such disinformation might serve to create FUD now (which is the point - Russian disinformation isn't really supposed to convince people in the West other than a handful of Putin fanbois - it's supposed to make you think "we really don't know for sure what is happening" and it works remarkably well in that role as you can see here) but at the war crimes trials evidence with a formal chain of custody will be presented and will be correlated with radio transmissions and forensic evidence and maybe even testimony from underlings who are captured, etc.
The Russian UN Ambassador (who BTW looks and sounds like a cartoon caricature of a Russian official) is clearly nervous and stumbles over a question about the bodies on the street in Bucha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTXA3t-zyK0
He makes a Kinsley Gaffe: He is probably nervous about whether he is going to get dragged into the war crimes trials. Von Ribbentrop ended up on the gallows.Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Twinkie
Right. I remember Colin Powell making his presentation. See those little dark splotches there in the satellite image? Those are shadows cast by trucks carrying yellowcake. See how they appear and disappear? That means the trucks dropped off yellowcake and then drove away. He even had a little glass vial. Glass vial! I mean, imagine if Blinken went to the UN with satellite images and a little white cloth. Slam dunk!
Satellite imagery was also key in Bellingcat’s analysis “proving” that gas attacks came from the Syrian army.
Reality: maybe Russians are responsible, but no satellite imagery presented by the NYT, DOS, or CIA can be trusted.
Like that’s going to happen! Even if it did, you seem to be under the hold of some fantasy in which Putin is connected to everything bad that happens in the same way the Nazi hierarchy was connected to the Holocaust. LOL. There is no Ukrainian genocide. If there were Russian atrocities, they were likely the result of local commanders or lack of discipline. If there had been a higher up order to shoot Ukrainians, the bodies wouldn’t be randomly strewn around city streets and various places. This is not to say Putin has the high ethical standards we want in a world leader, but poisoning political opponents and pointlessly and counterproductively slaughtering lots of civilians are two different things. Show me the pattern of Russian military units consistently leaving behind similar conditions when they withdraw, and I’ll consider jumping on your bandwagon.
There have been many reports of helicopters flying into Mariupol that have been shot down by the Russians. One explanation was that they were attempted rescue missions of high value foreigners trapped in the steelworks..
France was the usual suspect.
Turns out it may not have been a frog they were seeking to smuggle out. The Russians seemed to have captured an American Major-General. https://rense.com/general96/us-major-general-captured-by-russians.phpReplies: @Jim Don Bob
My anti virus program says that this site contains a virus:
https://rense.com/general96/us-major-general-captured-by-russians.php
This doesn’t make any sense. Why would you need to go to a store in order to order a gun by mail? You would do one or the other but not both. When Lee Harvey Oswald wanted a rifle, he just ordered it directly from Klein’s Sporting Goods located in Chicago, as advertised in the February 1963 American Rifleman.
He, being somewhat short of funds, got the $19.95 Italian bolt action carbine.
I love how blue check analysis of this war can combine mindreading like “Putin desperate to take Kiev” with questions like “why isn’t Putin using his air force and missile capabilities more?” and observations like “Putin didn’t send in enough troops to hold Kiev”. Ritter may be wrong on some things, but one thing he says that is definitely true: everybody talkin bout Putin’s playbook, but nobody seen it cept Putin.
First, how about the people being terrorized, killed, shelled, and suppressed in the Donbas region because they speak Russian and consider themselves part of the Rus civilization? Do “they live there” too?
Second, millions of “the ukrainians” are ethnic Russians, and millions more are native Russian speakers alongside the LESSER-used ukrainian language.
Moreover, the genetics, languages, religion, and culture of “ethnic Russians” and “ethnic ukrainians”, to the extent that they can even really be neatly separated, are extremely close, as befits historically kindred people.
** The western part of “the ukraine” was arbitrarily added to the ukrainian SSR by that Georgian paragon of freedom, peace, and democracy, Ioseb Besarionis dze Jughashvili a/k/a Josef Stalin. In 1939 he ordered the transfer of Polish land to “the ukraine”; in 1940, Romanian territory; in 1945, Czechoslovakian territory; and in 1948 some islands from Romania. The people added were of course not consulted, nor were the people already in the SSR.
** As for the Crimea, it was arbitrarily tacked on to the ukrainian SSR by another paragon of democracy, peace, and freedom, Nikita Khrushchev, in 1954. Again neither the people in the existing SSR nor the people “transferred” were consulted.
Ukrainian SSR in 1939:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Sb%2BdQSPH&id=2FDC05E48D6808CF49AEA6FCC5D6D522932770A4&thid=OIP.Sb-dQSPHPjBqsxzPLf_RxQHaEP&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR.49bf9d4123c73e306ab31ccf2dffd1c5%3Frik%3DpHAnkyLV1sX8pg%26riu%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fwww.infoukes.com%252fhistory%252fimages%252fww2%252ffigure02.gif%26ehk%3DGGk8lOysUoxVRagjFZS9OxNYSmizeyEFmJ%252bhYPvjS5g%253d%26risl%3D%26pid%3DImgRaw%26r%3D0&exph=670&expw=1170&q=ukraine+1939+1945+map&simid=608056048145872153&form=IRPRST&ck=10FC73C192323747DFEDE025196F553D&selectedindex=4&vt=4&sim=11
Current “ukraine” after the Soviet Communist dictators’ decrees:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=N9Eh%2Bc8y&id=82CB6ACB8D719DB096D6E0B06D60C91BB9E48E77&thid=OIP.N9Eh-c8yOyXEjpqq18wrvQHaEZ&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR.37d121f9cf323b25c48e9aaad7cc2bbd%3Frik%3Dd47kuRvJYG2w4A%26riu%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fniezlomni.com%252fwp-content%252fuploads%252f2016%252f11%252fukr2.png%26ehk%3DFLTOtN7ri%252fvcaAL5QbOp1%252fcvNhX7I8EnkCClGnURoT8%253d%26risl%3D%26pid%3DImgRaw%26r%3D0%26sres%3D1%26sresct%3D1&exph=475&expw=800&q=ukraine+1939+1945+map&simid=608043128883800049&form=IRPRST&ck=1140C768337C48725F67A25343F77F4F&selectedindex=8&vt=4&sim=11
Now why should we be so concerned with getting more “ukrainians” and Russians killed to preserve the borders decreed by these dictator-torturer-murderers?
By the way, the history of these territories and the allegiance / identity of the peoples in them, suggest that the countries bordering western “ukraine” could greatly benefit from a grand deal with Russia. Give the people of each western oblast the right to decide, in an internationally supervised binding referendum, whether to:
(1) stay in the “ukraine” — which, if the Russians are wise, henceforth will be a much smaller and landlocked country;
(2) become an independent country; or
(3) (re-)join Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, or Romania.
Make it a two-round election. In the second round, the people choose between the top two vote-getters from the first round.
It’s all crocodile tears for the Civilians in Donbass…and these crocodile tears would dry up real fast if there was a military draft of all able body young men and women in the US to fight the Russians in Ukraine…..
There wasn’t a peep out of Steve about the slaughter of the 400 Slavic Russian Children in Donbass from 2014 to present….Replies: @RadicalCenter
Unz’s most overrated columnist was too busy comparing masks with Anatoly Karlin in his closet — six feet apart, of course, it’s a big closet.
Obviously the Russians are trying to absolutely minimize damage to civilian infrastructure. However, Ritter argued that it would have been relatively easy for them to use targeted attacks or other means to block Kiev’s telecommunications channels with the outside world, preventing Zelensky from getting his message out internationally, and they didn’t do it because they wanted him to be built up, so that his eventual surrender would carry weight.
I don’t know whether his argument is correct, but it seems an interesting and plausible analysis I haven’t previously heard.
Regarding the main topic of this thread, Ritter was apparently unbanned on Twitter, but here’s a Youtube interview from late yesterday in which he explained his Bucha Massacre analysis in considerable detail:
Video Link
Sometimes I feel like the internet Russia supporters are living in some sort of antique reality in their head, like their knowledge of warfare ended with Clausewitz. " The Russians should cut the telegraph lines to Kiev! Then they should lure the Ukrainian cavalry into a cauldron!"
The Russian Army itself keeps fighting as if it is 1945 . "Those bazookas will bounce right off of the invulnerable cope cages on our T-34s." Then they talk to each other on their walkie-talkies and look for some Mädchens to rape and Nazis to kill.
Best, most insightful post on this topic, evah!
We are US-centric here at iSteve — this offers insight into why UK, France, Germany (!), Poland, Czech Republic are so worried.
I had an AMC station wagon which was pretty close to a Javelin, perhaps even on the same chassis. Ran great, and was pretty solid even with a rusted roof.
Oh, look– this one is in Russian colors!
Don’t see one in in Ukraine’s colors, but this comes close:
At this point, it’s pretty safe to assume that every single Russian denial or claim that something is “fake” is a lie. Russia has been telling parents of POWs that videos of their own children are “fake” when it’s friggin’ obvious to the parents that these are their own children. “Fake” to the Russian government no longer means “not true” it means “true but it casts us in a bad light so we will automatically say that it is fake.” Is there ANY unfavorable to Russia coverage coming out of Ukraine that is NOT fake according to Russia? It’s ALL fake according to the Russian and their shills. The photos of the damaged Russian tanks are fake, the photos of the dead are fake, everything is fake. Reality no longer exists. The headlines in Russian papers might as well be “The reports of the atrocities that will occur in the Donbas tomorrow are fake.”
It’s kind of pointless to contradict the Russian denials because the Russia supporters will just invent more lies to cover their last lies as fast as you debunk them. First the bodies weren’t there at all until the Russians left and then when the satellite photos showed that was a lie and that they were there for some time, the satellite photos were “fake”. If the BBC reporters say that there is a smell, then the BBC reporters are lying. There is always an answer for everything.
As I mentioned in another post, the purpose of such denials is not really to convince the unconvinced in the West (and the small number of convinced obviously need no convincing – they are going to buy into Russian lies no matter how thin their credibility) . It is to sow FUD (at least temporarily) among a much larger group so that people who are on the fence and maybe don’t want to have their lives disrupted by losing access to Russian gas have a face saving way of saying, “Well, the Russians are denying it and we don’t know for sure what the truth is, blah, blah, blah so how can we impose sanctions based on something that we don’t know for sure is true.” There is no level of proof that is going to satisfy those who don’t want to be satisfied.
Upton Sinclair said “it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
"Remember everyone: utu is an amoral monster who gets off on the idea of large numbers of innocent people dying pointlessly. "
I do not interact with psychopaths.Replies: @utu, @HA
“I do not interact with psychopaths.”
Quit lying, PhysicistDave. You obviously had no problem interacting with your “psychopath” (or “friend” as you referred to him) back when you thought you could put one over on him.
But when he caught you flat-footed spouting obvious nonsense yet again, you all of a sudden remember that he’s a psychopath you do not interact with?
Give it a rest. I realize it’s hard times at the troll factory. Once upon a time they could rely on Karlin and theSaker to spew out propaganda for them 24/7. But apparently, Putin’s funding dried up (or was diverted towards generating more blackmail on Trump or Orban or Tulsi or Tucker). Which means it’s up to the likes of you to take up the slack. Apparently, even PaperbackWriter has apparently decided to go back to his Jamba Juice (or wherever he lurks in order to feed that smoothie obsession of his). So sad. Don’t worry, I’m sure he’ll slither back once the heat dies down. He’s like you — he can’t help himself.
So I can understand why you’re so salty these days, but be realistic: no one who licks Putin’s slimy little Gollum feet the way you do has a problem interacting with psychopaths.
That is what convinced me that he is a psychopath.
I try to give people the benefit of the doubt (oh, how I have tried to give you the benefit of the doubt!), but that convinced me.Replies: @HA
There are many who speak Pontic Greek or Urum. The latter is Turkic spoken by a Hellenic minority in a Slavic country. Confusing enough?
Greeks occupied Crimea long before even the Tatars. I say give it to them. Like the Germans and Poles (and arguably Ukrainians), they lost the eastern half of their country.
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
“I’m very surprised that Ritter was commenting on this website. Or was it on Twitter or in some other venue?”
Ritter’s childish little snit took place on Twitter, and was subsequently reposted here.
I can’t see how keeping Chechens in your country is a “win” in any way. We only have a handful, and look what they did in Boston. They must have the highest terrorism rate in America.
South Africans had it right with their grand apartheid. Different peoples need different territory.
” It seems now that some of these bodies were killed before March 30th (by Ukrainians) and then dramatically placed in the open (again, by Ukrainians) in various states of rigor mortis and decomposition in order to make a nice photo-op that made it appear that the Russians had done it.”
And there we have a perfect example of what Jack D just mentioned. Somehow, the Ukrainians knew that the Russians would decide Kiev was just a bunch of grapes that were probably sour anyway, and pull away and go elsewhere.
And so, the DC-supplied Kiev fixer brigade reached into their handy mobile mortuary truck and pulled out a bunch of bodies of residents from Bucha that they — in anticipation of this pullout — had been kidnapping, murdering and then dragging back behind the front lines where they could “ripen”, so that then, they could “dramatically” haul those rotting corpses in the open the moment the opportunity presented itself.
Yeah, they keep a couple of these mortuary trucks at every single flashpoint, just in case the Russians decide to pull out again from any one of them. Makes total sense!
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And as for the Anonmyous commenter who yet again wants my personal info, I’ll reply to him here rather than wasting another comment on drivel like that.
“HA, what people or nation would you say you’re loyal to?”
First of all, if you’re that curious about me, you should know it’s HA, not Ha. And there’s nothing I like better than knowing my background is such a burning issue for all the anonymous little trolls like you I’ve managed to peeve, that they want to repeatedly follow me around hoping I’ll satisfy their curiosity.
But actually, my personal loyalties have been revealed often enough in my comments, and those are as accessible to you as they are to me.
If you’re too dumb or lazy to be able to track them down on your own, don’t expect me to do your research for you. I’m not nearly as obsessed with making this all about me as you seem to be, so deal with all that on your own time.
I don't know whether his argument is correct, but it seems an interesting and plausible analysis I haven't previously heard.
Regarding the main topic of this thread, Ritter was apparently unbanned on Twitter, but here's a Youtube interview from late yesterday in which he explained his Bucha Massacre analysis in considerable detail:
https://youtu.be/izeA9La1aNY?t=1070Replies: @Jack D
Could they have jammed all the communication satellites too?
Sometimes I feel like the internet Russia supporters are living in some sort of antique reality in their head, like their knowledge of warfare ended with Clausewitz. ” The Russians should cut the telegraph lines to Kiev! Then they should lure the Ukrainian cavalry into a cauldron!”
The Russian Army itself keeps fighting as if it is 1945 . “Those bazookas will bounce right off of the invulnerable cope cages on our T-34s.” Then they talk to each other on their walkie-talkies and look for some Mädchens to rape and Nazis to kill.
I don’t think your point about “in line with polls” is the case.
Again, not my patch. I’ve read the wiki on the referendum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
The very fact that there were a bunch of local elected official in Donetsk who were looking to succeed from it to join a neighboring oblast, and the results of the counter-referendum in Ukrainian held territory suggest exactly what i said–a muddle.
~~
AFAICT there is a group of ethnic Russians who would like to join Russia. There are large groups ethnic Russians and some Ukrainians in favor of independence and (perhaps an even larger) group picking up more ethnic Ukrainians in favor of some sort autonomy within Ukraine. And some Ukrainians in favor of just being in Ukraine.
Again, not my patch. But i’m confident it is not the same as the situation in Crimea, where the population was 80%+ Russian speaking, a strong majority ethnically Russia, with some Ukrainians a dash of Tartar sauce. Whatever you think of that referendum’s numbers (dubious), the result–joining Russia–squares with both the polling and election results, before the Russian takeover.
The Donbass in contrast is a muddle and requires tact and goodwill–mutual respect–to sort out. That hasn’t been overflowing from the Ukrainian government, but it really has been absent from Putin’s behavior.
And again, Putin had invaded those places and–if there was any legitimacy to any of these concerns–could have just sat there with those regions now under the control of the Russian armed forces and waited for the Ukrainians to come around or started trying to sort it out himself. His shitty little war has done nothing but kill a lot of people and probably alienate a huge number of the people he claims to “protect”.
There
SS instead of Cheka?
This is disappointing on several levels.
I’m surprised that they haven’t eaten their dog and cat as well.
Ever heard of the imposition of slavery by the criminal regime known as slaveholders? I was told by the fine commenters here that your own brethren partook in such a dastardly activity. Then again, what do they know, right?Replies: @Jack D, @Curle
“ Ever heard of the imposition of slavery by the criminal regime known as slaveholders?”
You mean morally criminal – and in your eyes/opinion?
Perfectly legal as far as the laws of the jurisdictions. And not even morally criminal in the opinion of many at the time.
Watching someone erect straw men to knock down gets very boring for the spectators. Might want to expand your conversational depth a little, eh?
Now since he wrote that, further evidence of SS like behavior has come out. German intelligence was apparently listening to the Russian coms in Bucha ( the fact that the Russians have unencrypted coms is further indication of what clowns they are - even the Nazis had Enigma). In these communications, there are orders issued that state: "First you interrogate soldiers, then you shoot them." AFAIK, the LAPD never does this. Even the SS, for the most part, did not shoot American and British POWs (but the Russians did execute the Polish officer corps at Katyn so I suppose you are right that the Russian Army is behaving most like the Russian Army - it's just that the Russian Army is WORSE than the SS in some respects).
Apparently the Wagner Group played a leading role in the atrocities. More to the point, you could compare the Russian Army to the Wehrmacht and the Wagner Group is the SS.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d
The people who are quibbling over whether the publicly release satellite images are real/fake and what day they were taking on and whether the satellites were even overhead on those days (the quibbles are almost certainly false and just more Russian disinformation) are fighting the wrong battle because the intelligence services have their own satellites and probably have more and better images. Such disinformation might serve to create FUD now (which is the point - Russian disinformation isn't really supposed to convince people in the West other than a handful of Putin fanbois - it's supposed to make you think "we really don't know for sure what is happening" and it works remarkably well in that role as you can see here) but at the war crimes trials evidence with a formal chain of custody will be presented and will be correlated with radio transmissions and forensic evidence and maybe even testimony from underlings who are captured, etc.
The Russian UN Ambassador (who BTW looks and sounds like a cartoon caricature of a Russian official) is clearly nervous and stumbles over a question about the bodies on the street in Bucha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTXA3t-zyK0
He makes a Kinsley Gaffe: He is probably nervous about whether he is going to get dragged into the war crimes trials. Von Ribbentrop ended up on the gallows.Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Twinkie
Mango, beef, and onion are all food items.
Meanwhile the Russian Army is the regular armed forces of a sovereign modern nation-state, LAPD is the police department of an American city, and the SS was a paramilitary arm of the Nazi Party in World War II Germany. They are all quite different beasts. They are/were selected and trained differently, have/had radically different rules of engagement, and perform/performed extremely different functions. By the way, when you refer to the SS, you are likely (unwittingly) referring the Waffen-SS, the actual armed combat component of the SS. It helps to be precise, instead of relying on hysterical slogans.
By your logic, almost all armed forces engage in “SS like behavior,” because there are varying (quite varying, obviously) degrees of killing of civilians, prisoners, as well as atrocities/war crimes committed by national armed forces. Need I remind you of Abu Ghraib and numerous other instances of contraventions of rules of war our own military has engaged in? And that’s the most lawyered-up military force in human history. The IDF routinely engages in similar behaviors, including bulldozing of civilian homes of families of Palestinian attackers (guilt-by-association) and “interrogations with moderate physical pressure,” i.e. torture of prisoners. Is the IDF also “SS-like”?
Bad things happen in war, sometimes even done by otherwise good people who are scared, angry, stressed, etc. Not every one of those instances is “SS-like” behavior (the SS engaged in organized war crimes at a massive scale). You need to take a breath and make sure all the reports you see that seem to valid your priors turn out to be true in the end.
Correction: Ashkenazi* Jews were strong in both verbal and quantitative sections. I would surely love to see the stats for these days. But the collapse of Jewish academic excellence documented by Mr. Unz is pretty convincing that Jews no longer perform the way they once did in America.
*Non-Ashkenazi Jews never performed above average in the West.
Historically, you are correct that Ashkenazi Jews had higher average quantitative and verbal components of IQ than Europeans. However, they also had much lower visuospatial IQ than Europeans, let alone East Asians. This has been documented extensively by Cochran, Hardy, and Harpending.
I might also add that between the sexes, males far exceed females in the visuospatial element of the IQ (hunting!) and the females do better in verbal (chattering women!). 😉
At least the Jews have the ultra Orthos doing the yeoman reproductive work for the rest of the slackers!
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-avars-of-dark-age-hungary-were-mongolians/#comment-5267960
That wasn’t “a mere show of force” – I think the Russians tried to capture an airfield near Kiev and fly in reinforcements to capture the city (or at least the administrative core of the city). But they were badly repulsed.
I suspect they were intending to capture the government, not occupy the entire city. But who knows? Only the Russian national and military command know. The rest is just speculation (including my own).
But feints aren’t supposed to be this costly. Sure, we don’t accurately know the casualty rates of both sides, but there are enough photographically confirmed counts of destroyed, damaged, abandoned, and captured vehicles to get some rough measures of casualty levels, and the Russians appeared to have suffered a considerable number in the Kiev axis of advance.
Ukraine doesn’t have an “enormous” army. And its capabilities were held in low esteem by most, including our own Pentagon (which expected the fall of Kiev “any day now” for quite a while in the beginning of the Russian invasion). A lot of people and governments have been surprised by the fierceness of the Ukrainian resistance, I suspect the Russian leadership among them.
That’s a convenient speculation on his part, but completely unsupported. And Ritter is absolutely wrong on how “easy” it is to block communication channel in this day and age. When the Arab Spring began, both the Egyptian and Libyan regimes tried to cut internet and communications channels of the rebels (whose capabilities were far more primitive than that of the Ukrainians) and couldn’t. I am a Luddite, but even I know ways to create communications in a “non-permissive environment.”
“ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/19/elon-musk-ukraine-starlink/Replies: @HA
204K soldiers
53K border guards
60K National Guard
220K Reserves
for a grand total of 537,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
Meanwhile, Germany's military is supposedly only 63K. So even if you exclude reserves and border-guards, Ukraine's is several times larger.
As I said upthread, I haven't really been much following the fighting aside from looking at the pro-Ukraine NYT/WSJ/MSM articles and glancing at some of pro-Russia websites on the other side, plus recently listening to Ritter's long interviews.
Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we'll soon have a better idea about who was correct.Replies: @Twinkie, @HA, @HA
The Borderland has had to actively prevent military age (widely understood) males from leaving the country. The Borderland has it's thugs shooting military aged men trying to leave conflict zones with their families. The Borderland has had it's thugs held civilians in a city under siege, at times at gunpoint, in order to use them as human shields.
The Borderland has repeatedly lied in its propaganda campaigns, from Snake Island to today. It has tried with its lies to drag my country (yours?) into a war with a nuclear armed foe.
In contrast, the brave soldiers of Donetsk and Lugansk, ill equipped, have tied up significant forces of the Kievan government, and indeed even advanced both to link up with Russian forces in the South and on the fortified positions from which the Borderlanders have rained down indiscriminate artillery fusillades for eight years, on and off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fHHWj0aVKwReplies: @HA
“after 2014 the Kievan government of the Borderlands gave carte blanche to Azov etc to purge or at least drive underground pro-Russian ‘Borderlanders’.”
Isn’t Borderlands some video game or something? I’m starting to understand your comments a little better.
Anyway, back here in reality, if you can drag yourself away from the PS for just a moment, the Ukrainians weren’t the ones who installed the psycho-bandits in Donetsk and Lugansk who raped and tortured (and expropriated businesses of) the locals. That was all their doing of their separatist factions, with carte blanche provided by Moscow. And yet, surprisingly, even the party heads of those collaborations factions condemned this invasion. Even one of your fellow Putin trolls admitted that. Now, why would even they condemn this invasion that was supposedly coming to save them from those Azovians? Something doesn’t hold up in your narrative. Maybe the developers can resolve that in the next upgra… oh, wait, that’s right — we’re not talking about your video game fantasies, are we? Never mind.
As for any brave fight to link up with the wreckage of the soon to be “rescued” Ukrainian holdout Mariupol, which somehow the Russians still haven’t managed to take even after a month of brutal blasting (though they probably soon will if my sources are correct — apparently, those Azov boys sure know how to resist), the separatist areas are under similar conscription rules as the rest of Ukraine, except the local thugs are requiring them to fight for their mafia fiefdoms. For some reason, the fanboys never complain about that when they’re trying to shame the Ukrainians for their military draft.
All that was all clearly explained in the links I provided but thanks for giving me the opportunity to explain it yet again.
You don't speak Russian, or Ukrainian, or *any* slavic language do you?
Your *sources* my foot.
BTW the remnants of the Azov human shield wielders are holed up in Azovstal (appropriately). They are surrounded and will be starved out or die.Replies: @HA
Another Russian failure, then.
And getting easier every day. When the war started, Musk opened the Starlink (internet satellite) network to Ukraine and sent thousands of terminals (dishes). Each Starlink antenna is about 12 x 19 inches or approximately the size of a cookie sheet. Especially at night, these would be impossible to spot and could be easily camouflaged (painted to match roof tiles, etc.) , not that Russian forces were free to fly over Kiev anyway.
“
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/19/elon-musk-ukraine-starlink/
“Wasn’t the Mexican-American War ignited by a dispute over the placement of the southern border of Texas?”
You’re correct! My broader point still stands though. The US doesn’t go to war over borders, at least not our own.
The Ukraine never had any nukes. Those were Soviet nukes. Russia is the successor state to the Soviet Union. Ukraine didn’t have command and control of ‘its’ nukes.
I certainly don't regard myself as any sort of military expert, but Ritter's points in his long interviews on Grayzone and TheDuran seemed pretty insightful to me.
It's quite possible that the Russians originally thought that a mere show of force would topple the Ukrainian government, and Ritter seems to think they'd gotten very bad intelligence on that. But diverting the Ukrainian reserves to Kiev and therefore allowing the forces near Donbas to be surrounded seems like a good fallback strategy. Kiev is a city of 3M and if it were hostile, a few tens of thousands of troops could never hope to seize and occupy it.
Ukraine is a large country with an enormous, well-trained military, and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.
I thought one very interesting point Ritter made was that the Russians were deliberately allowing Zelensky to be built up into an international hero by allowing his communications channels to remain unblocked since they needed him to eventually arrange the surrender. If he'd remained a very unpopular, failed president, he wouldn't have had the necessary credibility, and NATO would have just created a government in exile under its complete control.Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher, @utu, @HA, @Twinkie, @HA
“Ukraine is a large country…and defeating it is hardly a trivial undertaking, especially if the Russians seem to be doing their absolute best to minimize civilian casualties and destruction.”
If the Mariupol drone footage we’ve seen is an example of the “absolute best” the Russians can do to “minimize civilian casualties and destruction”, then I’d say that in and of itself makes the relatively milder carnage that the Russians carried out in Bucha seem pretty unsurprising in comparison (though in more recent days, the Russians have allegedly — according to unconfirmed sources — decided it’s smarter to cremate the victims of their massacres so as to leave less sloppy evidence behind. What could be the reason for that sudden change in tactics, I wonder?)
Well, yes, it’s probably true that they couldn’t just ignore Kiev. That would changed the nature of the conflict.
“ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/19/elon-musk-ukraine-starlink/Replies: @HA
“Each Starlink antenna is about 12 x 19 inches or approximately the size of a cookie sheet.”
FWIW (since this is way beyond my pay grade) the Ukrainians did manage to find one abandoned Russian EW jammer. A quick search indicates that Russians sold similar systems to Serbia and Algeria, so I’d be surprised if the US hasn’t already managed to bribe enough people to spill all the details on how these things work, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of that knowledge was passed on to Ukrainians (though knowing how a jammer works is not the same thing as knowing how to evade it).
And yes, I do understand the purpose of these jammers is to work against the drones and missiles in whatever areas of the spectrum they receive and/or broadcast, as opposed to communication channels that Zelensky’s people use, whatever the latter even means. Does he have, like, some bat-signal Klieg-light that he beams out over Kiev? Or maybe he hires a babushka to ride her Nimbus-2000 flying broom with the “extra-fumes” setting to send out helpful messages to all the Russian invaders?

The Pentagon will want to have a good look at the Krasukha-4. I get the feeling that the flow of military equipment from NATO to Ukraine is not 100% one way.
That being said, something like that is only good when you have absolute air supremacy. When something like this is lit up it is the equivalent of a Klieg light for anti-radiation missiles. You might as well put a giant neon “DESTROY ME” sign on the roof of this thing.
Of course it is nice that the Russians are retreating in disarray and leaving behind such valuable hardware completely intact. This is not a cheap piece of hardware.
SOVIET nukes. Read what you just said. These were Soviet nukes situated in Ukraine. The question of who got what when the Soviet Union dissolved took some haggling. Those security assurances were what resulted. I guess Russia could have pulled the old "this was always mine and so I get to have it all" routine (kind of like they are now), but instead they chose to put their evidently worthless signature onto a document that we co-signed. And so here we are. Please try and keep up.
"Do you give Steve a lot of donations so he put you on auto approval?"
Evidently, I get about as much auto-approval as PaperbackWriter, PhysicistDave, BuzzMohawk and any number of Putin's useful idiots and trolls whose replies to my comments seem to appear quickly enough. Do you whine about their unfair advantages, too? Or have you ever considered doing something a little more constructive, say, taking a screen name other than Anonymous287?Replies: @Anonymous
Ukraine never possessed operational control of the nuclear weapons. They were never going to.
Superficially, your arguments have the shape and form of logic, but it’s really just emotional blackmail over and over again.
You have a conclusion you want to get to. It’s motivated reasoning. You browbeat people who have no obligation to put their lives at risk for your various schemes. We don’t owe you anything.
Why are you guys so motivated to beat up on Russians? We don’t wanna be drunk into your ancient ethnic grudges
“And what about people touching the hair of Black Women. Hair touching is WORSE than genocide. The dead no longer care but the anguish a Black Woman whose hair has been touched is endless.”
Red herring. Who gives a damn about vapid women? Mr. Sailer is obsessed by them.
Anyways, quit dodging the questions, Jack. Is not the American elite oppressing white people by favoring non-whites and trannies? Is not the American elite oppressing white men by favoring white women and women of color? Because that is the attitude by a number of posters on this fine opinion webzine. Aren’t you being dismissive of their experiences of “real oppression”? Direct questions. Please answer, with reasoning.
Steve/Ron - could you add one of those please?Replies: @Twinkie, @Mike Tre, @Corvinus
“And with that, you’ve just admitted that you don’t know any US slaves, literally. Slavery as an institution was abolished in 1865 with the 13th Amendment.”
Don’t be binary. Literally and figuratively, I have heard from a number of posters here that they are slaves due to the machinations of the global elite, AND the totalitarian rule of the federal government, AND the Jewish imposed Globalhomo agenda? I even have a few friends who feel that same way.
Are you saying they are IMAGINING they are slaves, that what they lament about is overblown?
Red herring. Who gives a damn about vapid women? Mr. Sailer is obsessed by them.
Anyways, quit dodging the questions, Jack. Is not the American elite oppressing white people by favoring non-whites and trannies? Is not the American elite oppressing white men by favoring white women and women of color? Because that is the attitude by a number of posters on this fine opinion webzine. Aren’t you being dismissive of their experiences of “real oppression”? Direct questions. Please answer, with reasoning.Replies: @Jack D
I see there are buttons for Agree, Disagree, etc. but is there a button for “Sod Off, Wanker”?
Steve/Ron – could you add one of those please?
Have you ever been in a city that has been reduced to rubble? I am guessing not. Here is a little tip: it’s extremely hard to clear destroyed urban areas of opposing forces, because every crater, destroyed building, and the widespread debris creates lots of hazard and defensive strong points. Soldiers hate fighting in destroyed cities, because it is enormously dirty, messy, and deadly.
Russians didn’t win in Chechnya, because they bombed Grozny to rubble. It took two bloody wars and years of counterinsurgency to do so (understand that Chechnya is highly mountainous and is not at all highly urbanized) and it also required the defection of Akhmad Kadyrov and his militia who fell out with the Wahhabists and Jihadis.
Steve/Ron - could you add one of those please?Replies: @Twinkie, @Mike Tre, @Corvinus
I suspect you’ll get that button a lot.
Superficially, your arguments have the shape and form of logic, but it’s really just emotional blackmail over and over again.
You have a conclusion you want to get to. It’s motivated reasoning. You browbeat people who have no obligation to put their lives at risk for your various schemes. We don’t owe you anything.Replies: @HA
“Ukraine never possessed operational control of the nuclear weapons. They were never going to.”
They don’t need “operational control” to sell what they do possess to the highest bidder, in exchange for some kind of nuclear capability that they did have operational control. Did whatever “shape and form” passes for “logic” in your head somehow manage to overlook that?
“We don’t owe you anything.”
No, but you’re apparently willing to shovel everything you got in my direction all for free, and I hope it’s obvious from my agreeable manner how grateful I am for all that. Though speaking of owing, if you really want that golden pre-approval like Buzz and PhysicistDave and PaperbackWriter and other Putin useful-idiots who keep popping up seem to have been given, you could always try upping your quarterly contribution to Sailer instead of expensing that to the troll factory back in Moscow. I hear now that Russia is edging closer to default, they might have some delays in getting the checks to clear. Or maybe you should angrily harangue Steve why he’s not listing rubles as an accepted form of payment? That’s pretty provincial on his part, when you think about it, to exclude a great and glorious currency like the ruble. Downright “humiliating”, if you ask me. Steve better watch his step, and definitely stay away from NATO.
Russians didn't win in Chechnya, because they bombed Grozny to rubble. It took two bloody wars and years of counterinsurgency to do so (understand that Chechnya is highly mountainous and is not at all highly urbanized) and it also required the defection of Akhmad Kadyrov and his militia who fell out with the Wahhabists and Jihadis.Replies: @Jack D
1. Serious question – if this is not a winning (is in fact a counterproductive) tactic, then why do the Russians do it? Are they stupid, evil, misguided, what?
2. If you are a civilian resident of one of the cities that Russia has targeted and cannot escape (because the Russians also shoot anyone who tries to escape) then the fact that this is not a “winning” strategy for the Russians makes no difference to you because you will be just as dead either way.
Most commentators with some knowledge of military strategy were surprised that the Russians moved towards Kiev in the first place at all. The best guess was that this was a feint to tie down Kievan forces near Kiev: I have been saying this for a very long time. The movement of Russian forces from Kiev to the Donbass makes sense on that supposition.
Was the Kremlin hoping that the Kiev regime would just promptly surrender when Russian forces showed up on their doorstep? Sure -- why not hope? -- but no serious military planner would have counted on it..
Jack also wrote: You are assuming as a fact something not in evidence: the Russians are claiming that the Kievan forces are preventing civilians from leaving cities under siege so as to use those civilians as human shields.
It would serve the goals of the Kiev regime to do that. It would serve the Russian goals for civilians to leave so that Russian forces could then just devastate the Kievan forces left in the cities.
None of us knows what is really going on, but the Russian claims do make more sense.
We know that the Kiev regime has lied a lot: the Ghost of Kiev, the martyrs of Snake Island, etc.
Only a fool believes that something is true simply because the Kiev regime claims it is true.
(And, no, no one should assume the Russians are telling the truth either: truth is the first casualty of war.)Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher
Well, I really haven’t been following the details of the war, and the information presented in my NYT is extremely doubtful and unclear on those things. Various military analysts have been claiming that the large Ukrainian forces near the Donbas have more or less been surrounded and will soon have to surrender or be destroyed, especially since they’ve lost all their fuel and ammunition. We’ll soon find out whether they’re right or not.
“Isn’t Borderlands some video game or something”
You don’t speak Russian, or Ukrainian, or *any* slavic language do you?
Your *sources* my foot.
BTW the remnants of the Azov human shield wielders are holed up in Azovstal (appropriately). They are surrounded and will be starved out or die.
False. They would literally need operational control in order to sell them. Only Russians had that. Russians always had physical possession of them.
And now you imply that those who won’t get on the hate Russia bandwagon are paid agents. You know that’s a lie.
Which leads us back to Steve claiming you make good arguments. No, you don’t. It’s never anything but emotional browbeating and name-calling dressed up with whatever “logic” serves your motivated reasoning at the time.
Steve promoted HA because HA shares Steve's believe that if one is skeptical about receiving an injection rushed through all prior methods of validation while its creators are guaranteed criminal and financial immunity from any ill effects, then that person is obviously scared of needles.
And why isn't HA scared of nuclear war, you might ask? Because what is an ICBM if not a humongous, supersonic needle, flying through the air in a desperate effort to vaccinate a few hundred thousand people afflicted with Putin Unspecified Supporter SYndrome (aka PUSSY)?
I mean Sailer is correct though. HA makes the most impeccably logical arguments I've ever heard. Example: If a commenter expresses the opinion that the killing should stop, HA demands they take up arms and fly overseas to starting killing people in order to get the killing to stop, otherwise, they are a Putin Unspecified Supporter SYndrome.
Do try to keep up, people.Replies: @HA
Sure, I was speaking loosely. Ritter was suggesting that the Russians were severely misinformed about whether the Ukrainians would fight, so it’s very plausible that their attack including a bold strike at the center of the government, which they thought would probably collapse. But my impression was that although elite troops were involved, the numbers committed were fairly small.
Well, according to Wikipedia, Ukraine’s military consists of:
204K soldiers
53K border guards
60K National Guard
220K Reserves
for a grand total of 537,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
Meanwhile, Germany’s military is supposedly only 63K. So even if you exclude reserves and border-guards, Ukraine’s is several times larger.
As I said upthread, I haven’t really been much following the fighting aside from looking at the pro-Ukraine NYT/WSJ/MSM articles and glancing at some of pro-Russia websites on the other side, plus recently listening to Ritter’s long interviews.
Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we’ll soon have a better idea about who was correct.
Not according to you. MacGregor -- whom you seem to have some high opinion of -- assured us on day #5 that the Russians had "corrected" their course of being "too gentle" and that in another couple of days this should be "completely over":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puTGnvN0mVQ
Now, since this isn't my first rodeo, I suspect I know how this will play out. Fanboys and useful idiots of one form or another will step to assure us, hey come on, he didn't really mean that it would be "COMPLETELY over", he just meant that it would be "completely over" and those are two very, very different things.
That being said, I concur that as far as long-term outcomes go, things look exceedingly grim for Ukraine based on what I've read, but maybe I'm not going by the same sources you are (and I certainly don't waste time on Ritter and MacGregor for reasons like the one I just cited). Then again, I'm generally a Murphy's Law aficionado, so it's understandable that I see things that way, but I should also point out that doesn't mean my pessimism is misplaced.
Not according to you. MacGregor -- whom you seem to have some high opinion of -- assured us on day #5 (or thereabouts) that the Russians had "corrected" their course of being "too gentle" and that in another couple of days this should be "completely over":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puTGnvN0mVQ
Now, since this isn't my first rodeo, I suspect I know how this is likely to play out. Fanboys and useful idiots of one form or another will pop up to assure us, hey come on, he didn't really mean that it would be "COMPLETELY over", he just meant that it would be "completely over" and we all know those are two very, very different things.
That being said, I wouldn't deny that as far as long-term outcomes go, things still look exceedingly grim for Ukraine based on what I've read, so obviously I'm not going by the same sources you are (and I certainly don't waste time on Ritter and MacGregor for reasons like the one I just cited). Then again, I'm generally a Murphy's Law aficionado, so it's understandable that I would see things that way, but that doesn't mean my pessimism is misplaced.
One of many.
utu wrote to me:
No, you are a psychopath, and I have no interest in carrying on a serious conversation with a psychopath.
HA wrote to me:
That was before I read utu’s truly, bizarrely evil comment to which I linked above.
That is what convinced me that he is a psychopath.
I try to give people the benefit of the doubt (oh, how I have tried to give you the benefit of the doubt!), but that convinced me.
And so you felt the insatiable need to interact with him (repeatedly, I might add) to tell him you won't interact with him? Right. Makes about as much sense as the rest of your flakking. Was that just another "feint", maybe? That reminds me a little of that one about the dictator who announced a "military operation" to "de-Nazify" what he explicitly refers to as a “gang of drug-addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev”, only to have his rooting section assure us several weeks later he never had any intentions regarding Kiev whatsoever. We just misunderstood, or spent too much time watching fake satellite images of some 40 mile convoy that kept dropping shoddy Chinese-made tires like they never really fit in the first place.
See, all that kind of thing does is to make clear that no one needs to take anything you say seriously. It'll just twist and flip around anyway, accompanied by assurances that you told your wife what was really going to happen from the start, but just forgot to tell any of us. Oh yeah, and even though none of us knows what is really going on, you're somehow still confident that the Russian claims do make more sense (the flim-flam about Kiev and fake satellite images of corpses and "no signs of decomposition", etc., notwithstanding). Try and wrap your head around that one, any of you who dare: no one knows what's going on, and yet, PhysicistDave assures us that the Russian claims are the more sensible ones.
Verily, PhysicistDave is a man of great faith.
I have a complete Sunday edition of the L.A. Times from the second day of the 1984 Summer Olympics. According to the notation on the front page, the entire paper runs 528 pages.
By my count, roughly 100 of those pages are devoted to classified advertising. The Calendar tabloid runs 96 pages. The daily Olympics section (separate from the regular Sports section) runs 44 pages.
Here’s a slideshow:
https://streamable.com/wkc08j
204K soldiers
53K border guards
60K National Guard
220K Reserves
for a grand total of 537,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
Meanwhile, Germany's military is supposedly only 63K. So even if you exclude reserves and border-guards, Ukraine's is several times larger.
As I said upthread, I haven't really been much following the fighting aside from looking at the pro-Ukraine NYT/WSJ/MSM articles and glancing at some of pro-Russia websites on the other side, plus recently listening to Ritter's long interviews.
Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we'll soon have a better idea about who was correct.Replies: @Twinkie, @HA, @HA
But the casualties along the Kiev axis of advance were not fairly small from all indications.
Border guards, “National Guard,” and reserves are all low readiness forces not meant for heavy combat. 200,000+ for armed forces for a country that has been in a war since 2014 is not large.
The Bundeswehr (“Federal Armed Forces”) has over 180,000 active personnel (and has the seventh largest defense budget in the world, meaning its forces are lavishly equipped with high-tech weaponry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundeswehr
Your number only accounts for the Heer (the army) and excludes the Luftwaffe (the air force) and the Marine (the navy). You compared only the ground portion of the German military to the entire military forces of Ukraine.
In fact, Bundeswehr used to have half a million in active forces during the Cold War, but that number has cratered, because Germany today has no enemies on its borders and, moreover, it still hosts NATO allies forces that protect it such as the U.S. forces (in 40+ military bases, used to be 200+ during the Cold War) and BFG (used to be the British Army on the Rhine or BAOR), etc.
South Korea, which still has an enemy on its border has 650,000 active personnel in its armed forces (and 3 million+ reserves).
Ukraine’s military is 22nd in the world in the size of its active forces (the others on top of Ukraine being China, India, the U.S., North Korea, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, South Korea, Vietnam, Egypt, Myanmar, Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand, Turkey, Colombia, Sri Lank, Afghanistan*, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
On a per capita basis, it’s even lower on the list at 39 (4.8 per 1,000 in population). Ukraine’s army is not small, but it’s hardly a major power and, in any case, pure numbers mean little in terms of actual combat power (*as can be seen by the size of Afghanistan’s paper military).
Absolutely. However, even if Russia were to win, the cost and casualties for Russia will have been much larger than expected, not only by the Russian pre-war planning in all likelihood, but by our own (USG/Pentagon/CIA) estimates before the war as well.
As I mentioned before, and to use a term the Russian military is fond of, the correlation of forces still favors Russia, but so far the war has gone rather badly for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army Given your military expertise, what's your opinion of the Russian KIAs so far? Most people here seem to think the official US/MSM estimate of 7K-15K Russian KIAs is absurdly inflated and the Russian figure of maybe 1,350 is probably about correct, though likely excluding the Donbas militia losses.
Like I said, I haven't really been paying much attention to the war, probably giving it less than 10% of my time and focus at least until a few days ago when I starting listening to Scott Ritter's very long interviews.Replies: @Twinkie, @Jack D
Jack D asked Twinkie:
Jack, the Russians have made clear from the get-go that they wanted to minimize civilian casualties consistent with achieving their objectives, and they have clearly done that: the civilian deaths would easily have been an order of magnitude higher than anyone is claiming if the Russians had wished to maximize civilian deaths.
Most commentators with some knowledge of military strategy were surprised that the Russians moved towards Kiev in the first place at all. The best guess was that this was a feint to tie down Kievan forces near Kiev: I have been saying this for a very long time. The movement of Russian forces from Kiev to the Donbass makes sense on that supposition.
Was the Kremlin hoping that the Kiev regime would just promptly surrender when Russian forces showed up on their doorstep? Sure — why not hope? — but no serious military planner would have counted on it..
Jack also wrote:
You are assuming as a fact something not in evidence: the Russians are claiming that the Kievan forces are preventing civilians from leaving cities under siege so as to use those civilians as human shields.
It would serve the goals of the Kiev regime to do that. It would serve the Russian goals for civilians to leave so that Russian forces could then just devastate the Kievan forces left in the cities.
None of us knows what is really going on, but the Russian claims do make more sense.
We know that the Kiev regime has lied a lot: the Ghost of Kiev, the martyrs of Snake Island, etc.
Only a fool believes that something is true simply because the Kiev regime claims it is true.
(And, no, no one should assume the Russians are telling the truth either: truth is the first casualty of war.)
Does this look like "minimizing civilian casualties"?
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/7950dc95e1f63689eeeee85cc646f6073c894967/0_127_3893_2335/master/3893.jpg?width=700&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=59d67ca714319d5ef87c38f6161a01f6
Who are you going to believe, Putin or your own lying eyes?Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Twinkie
You don't speak Russian, or Ukrainian, or *any* slavic language do you?
Your *sources* my foot.
BTW the remnants of the Azov human shield wielders are holed up in Azovstal (appropriately). They are surrounded and will be starved out or die.Replies: @HA
“You don’t speak Russian, or Ukrainian, or *any* slavic language do you?”
Is this the part of the conversation where you reveal to me that your screen name indicates you see yourself primarily as a washed-up decrepit geezer?
It may surprise you to know that not a single word of any Slavic language was needed for me to suspect that (or something close to it), but even though I had that covered without your help, thanks for looking out for me all the same.
Washed up and decrepit has zero to do with it.
Have you looked up 'kraj' yet?Replies: @HA
Incompetence, for one. Leveling a city is usually a sign that all other methods and attempts have failed. From the time immemorial, a siege of any kind has been a sign that the attacker has decided to play chicken – “Let’s make it absolutely miserable for both sides and let’s see if you break before I do.” Historically sieges often ravaged both the besieged and the besiegers likewise.
As I wrote before, Russian “winning” in the Second Chechen War did not come from leveling Grozny, it came from a myriad of factors including a long counterinsurgency in the mountainous countryside and winning over a powerful local militia (the son of whose leader is still in power in Chechnya). Without the other conditions, the Russian army merely leveling Grozny would have meant very little.
That’s the tragedy of war. Everyone suffers (to varying degrees, of course). That’s why a negotiated peace by reasonable people is better for all, but human beings, not just Russians, are often unreasonable. If NATO hadn’t expanded eastward as promised, things would have been different in all likelihood. There’s been a lot of “unreasonableness” going around that’s exacerbated mistrust and fear on all sides.
That is what convinced me that he is a psychopath.
I try to give people the benefit of the doubt (oh, how I have tried to give you the benefit of the doubt!), but that convinced me.Replies: @HA
“That was before I read utu’s truly, bizarrely evil comment to which I linked above.”
And so you felt the insatiable need to interact with him (repeatedly, I might add) to tell him you won’t interact with him? Right. Makes about as much sense as the rest of your flakking. Was that just another “feint”, maybe? That reminds me a little of that one about the dictator who announced a “military operation” to “de-Nazify” what he explicitly refers to as a “gang of drug-addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev”, only to have his rooting section assure us several weeks later he never had any intentions regarding Kiev whatsoever. We just misunderstood, or spent too much time watching fake satellite images of some 40 mile convoy that kept dropping shoddy Chinese-made tires like they never really fit in the first place.
See, all that kind of thing does is to make clear that no one needs to take anything you say seriously. It’ll just twist and flip around anyway, accompanied by assurances that you told your wife what was really going to happen from the start, but just forgot to tell any of us. Oh yeah, and even though none of us knows what is really going on, you’re somehow still confident that the Russian claims do make more sense (the flim-flam about Kiev and fake satellite images of corpses and “no signs of decomposition”, etc., notwithstanding). Try and wrap your head around that one, any of you who dare: no one knows what’s going on, and yet, PhysicistDave assures us that the Russian claims are the more sensible ones.
Verily, PhysicistDave is a man of great faith.
Steve/Ron - could you add one of those please?Replies: @Twinkie, @Mike Tre, @Corvinus
Was there ever an example better at illustrating an individual’s total lack of self awareness than this?
By my count, roughly 100 of those pages are devoted to classified advertising. The Calendar tabloid runs 96 pages. The daily Olympics section (separate from the regular Sports section) runs 44 pages.
Here's a slideshow:
https://streamable.com/wkc08jReplies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous
Thanks. The L.A. Times got really rich in the second half of the 20th Century off being the Schelling Point for used car classifieds in Southern California.
The L.A. Times classified section had a bizarre practice where it printed names of various corporations and organizations and the phrase "Have a nice day" dozens of times under the heading "Institutional Messages". Evidently it was some kind of filler material. I've never seen any other newspaper do this.
https://i.ibb.co/Fnhbf9Q/institutional-messages.jpg
Most commentators with some knowledge of military strategy were surprised that the Russians moved towards Kiev in the first place at all. The best guess was that this was a feint to tie down Kievan forces near Kiev: I have been saying this for a very long time. The movement of Russian forces from Kiev to the Donbass makes sense on that supposition.
Was the Kremlin hoping that the Kiev regime would just promptly surrender when Russian forces showed up on their doorstep? Sure -- why not hope? -- but no serious military planner would have counted on it..
Jack also wrote: You are assuming as a fact something not in evidence: the Russians are claiming that the Kievan forces are preventing civilians from leaving cities under siege so as to use those civilians as human shields.
It would serve the goals of the Kiev regime to do that. It would serve the Russian goals for civilians to leave so that Russian forces could then just devastate the Kievan forces left in the cities.
None of us knows what is really going on, but the Russian claims do make more sense.
We know that the Kiev regime has lied a lot: the Ghost of Kiev, the martyrs of Snake Island, etc.
Only a fool believes that something is true simply because the Kiev regime claims it is true.
(And, no, no one should assume the Russians are telling the truth either: truth is the first casualty of war.)Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher
Go away, I wasn’t asking you. I’m sick of your Putinist bullshit. Russians claims that they wanted to minimize civilian casualties are sick lies in the face of what is going on in Ukraine and you are pathetic for repeating them and foolish for believing them. You remind me of the American academics who used to fall for Stalin’s lies. What is it about academics that makes them fall for totalitarian lies? Orwell said that there are some ideas so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them.
Does this look like “minimizing civilian casualties”?
Who are you going to believe, Putin or your own lying eyes?
Now if you want to ignore my replies, that's swell. I'll just say whatever I want about you, and you won't be able to respond!
Jack also wrote: Jack, it is remarkably easy to kill civilians in very large numbers with modern weaponry.
If that had been the Russian goal, many, many more civilians would be dead.
Jack also asked me: Your memory is failing you, Jack. I have said many times that after getting my Ph.D., I went into the semiconductor industry: I am not an academic.
Jack also asked: Yes, it does. Bombs and missiles very, very often do not hit their planned targets.
That is one of the main reasons that I and the other "peace fanboys" here have called for an immediate negotiated peace along lines acceptable to both sides.
The framework for peace is clear-cut: since Ukraine reneged on the Minsk accords, the Donbass must be independent -- there is no reason for the puppet regime in Kiev to continue trying to hold on to the Donbass through military repression. And Zelensky has publicly accepted now that Ukraine can never join NATO (which was never going to happen anyway).
All we are saying is give peace a chance.
But you have been stubbornly ridiculing all of us who want peace, apparently because you obtain a perverted sadistic thrill at the idea of Ukrainians fighting and dying to the last Ukrainian man, woman, and child. If you were not the proverbial gutless wonder, you would go over to Ukraine yourself and put your own precious skin on the line.
But no: you are just a sadistic pervert who likes to encourage others to fight and die while you sit at comfort in your easy chair.
There is a real sickness in your soul, Jack.
The killing must stop.
During the second battle of Falluja in 2004, the U.S. 1st Marine Division fired over 5,000 155mm artillery rounds into the town. Intense shelling and air attacks as well as ground combat were estimated to have destroyed something like 7,000-10,000 out of 50,000 buildings in Falluja and a good chunk of the rest suffered significant damage.
Again, this is from the most lawyered-up military force in human history.Replies: @Jack D
“Which leads us back to Steve claiming you make good arguments. ”
Steve promoted HA because HA shares Steve’s believe that if one is skeptical about receiving an injection rushed through all prior methods of validation while its creators are guaranteed criminal and financial immunity from any ill effects, then that person is obviously scared of needles.
And why isn’t HA scared of nuclear war, you might ask? Because what is an ICBM if not a humongous, supersonic needle, flying through the air in a desperate effort to vaccinate a few hundred thousand people afflicted with Putin Unspecified Supporter SYndrome (aka PUSSY)?
I mean Sailer is correct though. HA makes the most impeccably logical arguments I’ve ever heard. Example: If a commenter expresses the opinion that the killing should stop, HA demands they take up arms and fly overseas to starting killing people in order to get the killing to stop, otherwise, they are a Putin Unspecified Supporter SYndrome.
Do try to keep up, people.
"scrap of paper" that big powers can shred whenever they feel like? As opposed to harboring bitter grievances about some imaginary handshake deal about not-one-inch-Eastward or whatever that no one can even find any signature for? Is that really so hard for people to understand? It shouldn't be, but this is a site with a high percentage of kooks and loons and conspiracy nuts, so I've learned to keep my expectations in check.As for you in particular, Mr. No-one-ever-had-it-worse-than-we-did, sorry to get in the way of your desperate attempt to make everything -- yet again -- all about you and your bed-wetting, and I'm guessing it's the deep and abiding shame of that which is eating away at you. That's really what's going on here, isn't it? Truly, I think you need to find some way to finally let that go, but regardless, THAT is what got us here. Next time, maybe you try keeping up.Replies: @PhysicistDave
“Only Russians had that.”
Only SOVIETS had that. Fish or cut bait — if they’re SOVIET nukes, situated on UKRAINIAN territory, then claiming that RUSSIANS somehow controlled or had ownership of them is not going to work. That has, to use your words, the “shape and form” of a syllogism, except for the part where you completely screwed it up.
You might as well claim that “If A=B, and B=C, then it follows that A=Russia”. See, that doesn’t make sense, either. So sorry that your advanced logical “shapes and forms” do a poor job of conforming to the ones that actually kind of work.
“Which leads us back to Steve claiming you make good arguments. No, you don’t.”
Oh, is that what’s behind all this? Wow, what a burn that must have been. I guess that means he’ll be missing out on that big fat stack of rubles, what a shame. Good luck with the pre-approval, anyway. He seems to be cutting you plenty enough slack for this exchange, whaddya know. Or maybe that was all just another example of how all you fanboys (and other whiny brats like that) can’t seem to stop complaining about how the world mistreats you, am I right?
Lose the scolding tone. The emotional blackmail techniques aren’t going to work.Replies: @HA
Most commentators with some knowledge of military strategy were surprised that the Russians moved towards Kiev in the first place at all. The best guess was that this was a feint to tie down Kievan forces near Kiev: I have been saying this for a very long time. The movement of Russian forces from Kiev to the Donbass makes sense on that supposition.
Was the Kremlin hoping that the Kiev regime would just promptly surrender when Russian forces showed up on their doorstep? Sure -- why not hope? -- but no serious military planner would have counted on it..
Jack also wrote: You are assuming as a fact something not in evidence: the Russians are claiming that the Kievan forces are preventing civilians from leaving cities under siege so as to use those civilians as human shields.
It would serve the goals of the Kiev regime to do that. It would serve the Russian goals for civilians to leave so that Russian forces could then just devastate the Kievan forces left in the cities.
None of us knows what is really going on, but the Russian claims do make more sense.
We know that the Kiev regime has lied a lot: the Ghost of Kiev, the martyrs of Snake Island, etc.
Only a fool believes that something is true simply because the Kiev regime claims it is true.
(And, no, no one should assume the Russians are telling the truth either: truth is the first casualty of war.)Replies: @Jack D, @Keypusher
Yeah, if you have been saying that the Russians were going to camp out in front of Kiev for a few weeks, murder some civilians and then high-tail it back to Russia you’re living on Fantasy Island.
Here’s his dreadful advice on Feb 27 to Zelensky to surrender half of Ukraine to Putin’s murderous and failing vanity war:
“ I suspect the deal that Putin will offer Zelensky is:
A) The killing stops.
B) Ukraine retains the territory west of the Dnieper if Ukraine foreswears ever joining NATO and agrees to enforceable guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality.
C) You, Zelensky, get to live.
Zelensky could have gotten a better deal before the invasion. He will be lucky to get this now.”
Putin is a bloodthirsty and incompetent dictator who has brought disaster and disgrace to his people. The cope of his fanboys like Dave here will only get ever more cringey as Putin’s evil and incompetence becomes ever more undeniable for people with a modicum of self respect.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave
Does this look like "minimizing civilian casualties"?
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/7950dc95e1f63689eeeee85cc646f6073c894967/0_127_3893_2335/master/3893.jpg?width=700&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=59d67ca714319d5ef87c38f6161a01f6
Who are you going to believe, Putin or your own lying eyes?Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Twinkie
Jack D wrote to me:
Nah. You know, I just love ya, man!
Now if you want to ignore my replies, that’s swell. I’ll just say whatever I want about you, and you won’t be able to respond!
Jack also wrote:
Jack, it is remarkably easy to kill civilians in very large numbers with modern weaponry.
If that had been the Russian goal, many, many more civilians would be dead.
Jack also asked me:
Your memory is failing you, Jack. I have said many times that after getting my Ph.D., I went into the semiconductor industry: I am not an academic.
Jack also asked:
Yes, it does. Bombs and missiles very, very often do not hit their planned targets.
That is one of the main reasons that I and the other “peace fanboys” here have called for an immediate negotiated peace along lines acceptable to both sides.
The framework for peace is clear-cut: since Ukraine reneged on the Minsk accords, the Donbass must be independent — there is no reason for the puppet regime in Kiev to continue trying to hold on to the Donbass through military repression. And Zelensky has publicly accepted now that Ukraine can never join NATO (which was never going to happen anyway).
All we are saying is give peace a chance.
But you have been stubbornly ridiculing all of us who want peace, apparently because you obtain a perverted sadistic thrill at the idea of Ukrainians fighting and dying to the last Ukrainian man, woman, and child. If you were not the proverbial gutless wonder, you would go over to Ukraine yourself and put your own precious skin on the line.
But no: you are just a sadistic pervert who likes to encourage others to fight and die while you sit at comfort in your easy chair.
There is a real sickness in your soul, Jack.
The killing must stop.
Interesting. I just casually looked at the Wiki page for the German army, and it gave 63K for the total, a surprisingly small figure. I naturally assumed that its air force was just a fraction of that and there wasn’t a large navy so that would give me a rough overall estimate. I’m absolutely astonished that the German army numbers only 1/3 of its total military. I’d guess that the German Wehrmacht+SS had included well over 90% of its military personnel during WWII:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army
Given your military expertise, what’s your opinion of the Russian KIAs so far? Most people here seem to think the official US/MSM estimate of 7K-15K Russian KIAs is absurdly inflated and the Russian figure of maybe 1,350 is probably about correct, though likely excluding the Donbas militia losses.
Like I said, I haven’t really been paying much attention to the war, probably giving it less than 10% of my time and focus at least until a few days ago when I starting listening to Scott Ritter’s very long interviews.
Yesterday, Putin spokesman Peskov said that the casualties were "a huge tragedy for us". He didn't release any new #s but presumably "a huge tragedy" implies more than 1,351 deaths.
In addition to the 7,000 to 15,000 deaths estimated by NATO (that was 2 weeks ago so by now we are probably on the high end of that range) they estimated total casualties (killed and wounded) in the range of 30 to 40,000. This is a significant chunk of the total # of Russians who invaded Ukraine and would explain why they withdrew from the Kiev region. Once a unit loses more than a certain % of its troops it loses its combat effectiveness. Key men (the Russians have lost 7 generals) are no longer present, important equipment has been lost and those who remain are demoralized. There is no hope of using such units to advance further and keeping them in place was just causing further losses as ATGMs and accurately placed artillery, etc. continued to rain down on their head despite their state of the art tree branch and hay stack camouflage.Replies: @Ron Unz
Twinkie wrote:
Yeah.
One of the profoundly bizarre thing about the ongoing flame war here is that one side, the side that considers itself pro-Ukrainian, wants the Ukrainians to fight and die to the last Ukrainian man, woman, and child, rather than try to work out a peace deal along the lines of what is likely to occur in the end anyway.
On the face of it, this is a very, very strange way of being pro-Ukrainian!
On the other side, all of us who want a negotiated peace as soon as possible — on any terms that are mutually acceptable to the parties — so that the killing can stop are being labeled as “pro-Putin,” even though most of the people whose lives would be saved by an immediate peace are… Ukrainians.
I suppose we are getting a practical lesson in how propaganda works…
The one interesting question here is “Cui bono?” Who benefits by on indefinitely continuing war?
The only ones I can think of are the US military-industrial complex, the US Deep State, and, of course, the Western ruling elite.
So, how do our commenters here who are so eager to see the war continue benefit?
There don't appear to be any terms that are mutually acceptable so this is a fantasy.Replies: @PhysicistDave
The list of these groups can be disputed but I think would include the military-industrial complex, higher education, the welfare bureaucracy, the big Wall Street banks, the medical monopoly, big pharma and big tech. The commenters here advocating foreign policy interventionism and playing world policeman don't need to be connected to the military-industrial complex. They just need to be connected to one of the groups making up the alliance of corrupt parasitic elites.
204K soldiers
53K border guards
60K National Guard
220K Reserves
for a grand total of 537,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
Meanwhile, Germany's military is supposedly only 63K. So even if you exclude reserves and border-guards, Ukraine's is several times larger.
As I said upthread, I haven't really been much following the fighting aside from looking at the pro-Ukraine NYT/WSJ/MSM articles and glancing at some of pro-Russia websites on the other side, plus recently listening to Ritter's long interviews.
Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we'll soon have a better idea about who was correct.Replies: @Twinkie, @HA, @HA
“Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we’ll soon have a better idea about who was correct.”
Not according to you. MacGregor — whom you seem to have some high opinion of — assured us on day #5 that the Russians had “corrected” their course of being “too gentle” and that in another couple of days this should be “completely over”:
Now, since this isn’t my first rodeo, I suspect I know how this will play out. Fanboys and useful idiots of one form or another will step to assure us, hey come on, he didn’t really mean that it would be “COMPLETELY over”, he just meant that it would be “completely over” and those are two very, very different things.
That being said, I concur that as far as long-term outcomes go, things look exceedingly grim for Ukraine based on what I’ve read, but maybe I’m not going by the same sources you are (and I certainly don’t waste time on Ritter and MacGregor for reasons like the one I just cited). Then again, I’m generally a Murphy’s Law aficionado, so it’s understandable that I see things that way, but I should also point out that doesn’t mean my pessimism is misplaced.
204K soldiers
53K border guards
60K National Guard
220K Reserves
for a grand total of 537,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
Meanwhile, Germany's military is supposedly only 63K. So even if you exclude reserves and border-guards, Ukraine's is several times larger.
As I said upthread, I haven't really been much following the fighting aside from looking at the pro-Ukraine NYT/WSJ/MSM articles and glancing at some of pro-Russia websites on the other side, plus recently listening to Ritter's long interviews.
Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we'll soon have a better idea about who was correct.Replies: @Twinkie, @HA, @HA
“Fortunately, military outcomes represent a very objective test of reality, so if some people claim the Ukrainians are winning and others claim the Ukrainians are about to collapse, we’ll soon have a better idea about who was correct.”
Not according to you. MacGregor — whom you seem to have some high opinion of — assured us on day #5 (or thereabouts) that the Russians had “corrected” their course of being “too gentle” and that in another couple of days this should be “completely over”:
Now, since this isn’t my first rodeo, I suspect I know how this is likely to play out. Fanboys and useful idiots of one form or another will pop up to assure us, hey come on, he didn’t really mean that it would be “COMPLETELY over”, he just meant that it would be “completely over” and we all know those are two very, very different things.
That being said, I wouldn’t deny that as far as long-term outcomes go, things still look exceedingly grim for Ukraine based on what I’ve read, so obviously I’m not going by the same sources you are (and I certainly don’t waste time on Ritter and MacGregor for reasons like the one I just cited). Then again, I’m generally a Murphy’s Law aficionado, so it’s understandable that I would see things that way, but that doesn’t mean my pessimism is misplaced.
Jack D asked:
Jack, old pal, do you really think you are so insightful that you can tell whether someone is a sincere ordinary person or a skilled actor playing a role?
This woman may be telling the truth. She may be lying. It would be far from the first time that a government at war has gone to a lot of trouble to fake an atrocity.
And I think you know that.
The reason I believe that the Ukrainian soldiers committed serious war crimes by shooting Russian POWs in cold blood is this investigation by the BBC: it is very hard after reading that to see how it could be fake.
But before reading that, I just did not know.
And that is how any honest person must approach almost all of the claims about war crimes.
This of course does not apply to you.
https://www.bbc.com/news/60981238
It pretty well kills the compromised shill Scott Ritter's version that the Bucha killings were all Ukrainian killings of alleged collaborators. Of course some of those killed by Russians might have been caught in the act of sending messages about Russian positions.
Steve/Ron - could you add one of those please?Replies: @Twinkie, @Mike Tre, @Corvinus
Thanks for being dismissive of the American elite’s efforts to enslave us all and in the process invalidate the experiences of White people who are convinced they are being oppressed. Typical of your kind of people.
You mean morally criminal - and in your eyes/opinion?
Perfectly legal as far as the laws of the jurisdictions. And not even morally criminal in the opinion of many at the time.
Watching someone erect straw men to knock down gets very boring for the spectators. Might want to expand your conversational depth a little, eh?Replies: @Corvinus
“You mean morally criminal – and in your eyes/opinion?”
Not opinion, it’s a fact. And in retrospect, slavery was an undertaking by a criminal regime-the brutalization of entire group of free people, who were ripped from their homeland, for the sake of mammon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army Given your military expertise, what's your opinion of the Russian KIAs so far? Most people here seem to think the official US/MSM estimate of 7K-15K Russian KIAs is absurdly inflated and the Russian figure of maybe 1,350 is probably about correct, though likely excluding the Donbas militia losses.
Like I said, I haven't really been paying much attention to the war, probably giving it less than 10% of my time and focus at least until a few days ago when I starting listening to Scott Ritter's very long interviews.Replies: @Twinkie, @Jack D
That’s not unusual for first-tier modern nations with expensive equipment (what I call capital-intensive military forces). The U.S. armed forces is made up of about 1.3 million personnel, but the army is only under 500,000.
The ground component of the Bundeswehr (das Heer) was much bigger during the Cold War, because the main job of the Bundeswehr then was to defend the Fulda Gap against the invading Soviet mechanized units. Since then, the ground component has atrophied since Germany shares no land border with a hostile nation while the comparative budget for the Luftwaffe and the Marine has increased.
The Polish armed forces have about 120,000 active personnel, of which only about 60,000 are active army (and 30,000 or so are Territorial Forces).
In German, “Wehrmacht” means the (World War II) “defense force” or armed forces and included: das Heer (army), die Luftwaffe (the air force), and die Kriegsmarine (the navy). And, of course, die Waffen-SS was the armed, combat paramilitary branch of the National Socialist Party, so was not under military control organizationally, though operationally was placed under military control in combat.
Das Heer was the largest component of the Wehrmacht, but it wasn’t 90%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wehrmacht#Personnel_and_recruitment
In 1943, for example, when the German military was at its largest, the Heer had 6.5 million men, the Luftwaffe 1.7 million, the Kriegsmarine 780,000, and the Waffen-SS about 450,000. So the army was about 70% of the total (and a bit higher if counting the Waffen-SS as well).
There is no reliable way for outsiders to know the exact or even close to exact figure. The Russians are certainly aware of the extent of their losses, but their military is not as transparent as ours. Even without military expertise though, it doesn’t take a genius to estimate a reasonable guess based on equipment losses. The Russian military has lost over 2,000 vehicles so far. This figure is based on visually confirmed cases and includes destroyed, damaged and abandoned, and captured.
If the bulk of that figure was lost in actual fighting, the casualty rate must be pretty significant and the KIA number might be in the high thousands (esp. factoring in infantry losses; remember that the overall U.S. KIA was about 4,400 for the entire duration of the Iraq War, and the U.S. lost about 900-1,000 vehicles during the same period, of which about 250 were Humvees and 500 were trucks, the remainder being tanks and APCs/IFVs). It’s also possible that a large fraction of that number comes from abandoned equipment, but then that paints a pretty damning picture of Russian troops having an extremely low morale and fleeing.
So while I can’t give you a definitive figure, I think somewhere in the range of 8,000 KIA is reasonable.
One reason I've been paying attention to Ritter and Macgregor is that they'd both military experts and they're going against a 100% MSM tide, so I can't see why they'd be saying what they are unless they actually believed it. Maybe they're wrong, but I think they're probably being honest.
Exactly the same sort of thing happened in the lead-up to the Iraq War:
https://www.unz.com/runz/the-life-and-legacy-of-lt-gen-william-odom/Replies: @Twinkie, @silviosilver
I’m guessing that the Warsaw Pact would already have been resurrected.
But certainly not the first where both offices are owned by Jews?
“ There is nothing in the American experience you can liken this to.”
You missed out on the Northern invasion, Sherman’s march and Reconstruction I see.
I think it would have been a reasonable compromise to let Poland, Romania, and possibly the Baltic States join the West, but leave the former Soviet states (e.g. Ukraine and Georgia) in the Russian sphere of interest.
What you think is reasonable and what Putin thinks is reasonable are two different things altogether.
Steve promoted HA because HA shares Steve's believe that if one is skeptical about receiving an injection rushed through all prior methods of validation while its creators are guaranteed criminal and financial immunity from any ill effects, then that person is obviously scared of needles.
And why isn't HA scared of nuclear war, you might ask? Because what is an ICBM if not a humongous, supersonic needle, flying through the air in a desperate effort to vaccinate a few hundred thousand people afflicted with Putin Unspecified Supporter SYndrome (aka PUSSY)?
I mean Sailer is correct though. HA makes the most impeccably logical arguments I've ever heard. Example: If a commenter expresses the opinion that the killing should stop, HA demands they take up arms and fly overseas to starting killing people in order to get the killing to stop, otherwise, they are a Putin Unspecified Supporter SYndrome.
Do try to keep up, people.Replies: @HA
“And why isn’t HA scared of nuclear war, you might ask?”
I wouldn’t be very much in favor of urging states to de-nuclearize if I weren’t worried about nuclear war. I think we were right to do whatever was necessary to make that happen in the case of Ukraine, even if it meant giving assurances that we hoped (naïvely, as it turns out) that Russia would honor. But having signed, for reasons that even now are justifiable, we ought to own up to at least our end of that bargain. And so, here we are.
And if trying to avoid nuclear catastrophe is what got us here in the first place, I have little confidence that your eagerness to sleaze our way out of any obligations we made the first time around, in whatever sleazy way you prefer, is going to make the world safer, as opposed to backfiring big-time. Any peace agreement that allows Putin to simply regroup and try again next time, is not much of a peace agreement and the Ukrainians are right to dismiss it. Whereas if, as seems increasingly likely, any peace agreement that involves some other countries stepping up and offering, much as before, beefier guarantees that Ukraine won’t just keep getting swallowed up, then it behooves any and all of those other co-signatory countries to honor those earlier agreements that they made the first time around.
See how that works? See how actually trying to live up to agreements that we actually made and signed makes the world safer? As opposed to pretending they’re just a
“scrap of paper” that big powers can shred whenever they feel like? As opposed to harboring bitter grievances about some imaginary handshake deal about not-one-inch-Eastward or whatever that no one can even find any signature for? Is that really so hard for people to understand? It shouldn’t be, but this is a site with a high percentage of kooks and loons and conspiracy nuts, so I’ve learned to keep my expectations in check.
As for you in particular, Mr. No-one-ever-had-it-worse-than-we-did, sorry to get in the way of your desperate attempt to make everything — yet again — all about you and your bed-wetting, and I’m guessing it’s the deep and abiding shame of that which is eating away at you. That’s really what’s going on here, isn’t it? Truly, I think you need to find some way to finally let that go, but regardless, THAT is what got us here. Next time, maybe you try keeping up.
Does this look like "minimizing civilian casualties"?
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/7950dc95e1f63689eeeee85cc646f6073c894967/0_127_3893_2335/master/3893.jpg?width=700&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=59d67ca714319d5ef87c38f6161a01f6
Who are you going to believe, Putin or your own lying eyes?Replies: @PhysicistDave, @Twinkie
By the way, building damage is not a surefire way of proving callous intent in war. Urban fighting tends to destroy buildings.
During the second battle of Falluja in 2004, the U.S. 1st Marine Division fired over 5,000 155mm artillery rounds into the town. Intense shelling and air attacks as well as ground combat were estimated to have destroyed something like 7,000-10,000 out of 50,000 buildings in Falluja and a good chunk of the rest suffered significant damage.
Again, this is from the most lawyered-up military force in human history.
As I understand it, following the artillery bombardment, the Marines immediately (the next day) entered the city (after clearing the streets with armored bulldozers). Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique.
But this isn't what the Russians are doing. They seem to randomly destroy some apartment building or train station, often quite distant from the front lines, with missiles, where the only goal seems to be to kill civilians and sow terror. They have been bombarding Mariupol for over a month now but the ground assault never comes. So this seems to be quite unlike what the Marines did in Fallujah.Replies: @Professional Slav, @Twinkie
“On the other side, all of us who want a negotiated peace as soon as possible — on any terms that are mutually acceptable to the parties ..”
There don’t appear to be any terms that are mutually acceptable so this is a fantasy.
The Kiev thugs have openly admitted that they will lose to Russia unless the West militarily intervenes -- such as by "closing the sky." And the West won't.
So, eventually Kiev will sue for peace.
The only question is how many Ukrainian citizens will have to die before the regime folds.
The earlier they sue for peace, the better the deal they will get. Before the invasion, Putin said he would settle for an independent Donbass, a neutral rump Ukraine, and Crimea as part of Russia.
Perhaps he will still accept that.
But as Russia annihilates the Kievan military forces, Putin will recognize that he can get more -- at least the whole Black Sea coast, including Odessa.
A negotiated peace is not fantasy -- it is what will end up being reality.
But the longer the Kiev puppet regime puts off making peace, the harsher it will be.
I don't care what happens to Penis-Piano-Player Zelensky and his fellow thugs.
But I would like to see an end to the deaths of Ukrainian civilians.
The killing must stop.
And it will only stop with a negotiated peace that both parties accept.Replies: @James B. Shearer
“I think it would have been a reasonable compromise…”
What you think is reasonable and what Putin thinks is reasonable are two different things altogether.
In the first days of the war, PhysicsDave was gleefully predicting that Kiev and Kharkiv would quickly fall, and Zelensky would be captured and beg Putin to spare his life, and Russia would conquer about half of Ukraine.
Here’s his dreadful advice on Feb 27 to Zelensky to surrender half of Ukraine to Putin’s murderous and failing vanity war:
“ I suspect the deal that Putin will offer Zelensky is:
A) The killing stops.
B) Ukraine retains the territory west of the Dnieper if Ukraine foreswears ever joining NATO and agrees to enforceable guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality.
C) You, Zelensky, get to live.
Zelensky could have gotten a better deal before the invasion. He will be lucky to get this now.”
Putin is a bloodthirsty and incompetent dictator who has brought disaster and disgrace to his people. The cope of his fanboys like Dave here will only get ever more cringey as Putin’s evil and incompetence becomes ever more undeniable for people with a modicum of self respect.
I am an anarchist, so I am certainly no "fanboy" of Putin or any other governmental leader. I look forward to the day when would-be political leaders get less respect than Bozo the Clown (who, after all, did not kill anyone). You are just lying about that (interesting that you do not even have the guts to use a screen name!).
But, being an anarchist, I do want the killing to stop. And that will only come when the puppet regime in Kiev is willing to agree to peace terms that Putin and the Russian people find reasonable: self-determination for the Donbass and neutrality for the rump Ukraine.
That has nothing to do with being "cringey" or having a "modicum of self respect."
It is just reality.
Hate Putin all you want. But if you are ever mugged by a guy with a gun, and you are unarmed, and he demands your wallet, I strongly suggest that you put aside issues of cringiness and self respect, simply because he has a gun.
You want to view Putin as a mugger? Cool. I'm with you, since, as an anarchist, I view all governments as gangs of thieves if not outright murderers.
But this particular mugger, Vladimir Putin, has an awful lot of guns.
He is going to have his way with Ukraine.
As an anarchist, I oppose murder. And the only way to end the killing is for the puppet regime in Kiev to recognize reality, just as you better do if you are ever mugged by a guy with a gun.
The killing must stop.
Sounds pretty prescient now, doesn't it?
You think Zelensky can get that deal now? As I said back then, I think he will be lucky to get a deal that good.
Remember: Kiev has said they cannot win without a NATO-imposed no-fly zone. Which they will not get.
Kiev is going down for the count.
Better they get the best deal they can get now.
The killing must stop.
It works just fine because it’s the truth. Command and control of the nukes were always in Moscow.
We, the United States, are living up to our agreement. We’re not invading Ukraine. Unless you want to call our CIA mucking around in Ukraine since 2014 an invasion, which I might be open to.
Lose the scolding tone. The emotional blackmail techniques aren’t going to work.
The corrupt parasitic elites in control of the country are not a single entity. They are a collection of groups who have allied themselves against productive people. They may squabble with each other how the government spending pie is divided up between them, but they all agree that large amounts of tax money need to be extracted from the productive people in this country and funneled to them and that government regulations need to be put in place that benefit them.
The list of these groups can be disputed but I think would include the military-industrial complex, higher education, the welfare bureaucracy, the big Wall Street banks, the medical monopoly, big pharma and big tech. The commenters here advocating foreign policy interventionism and playing world policeman don’t need to be connected to the military-industrial complex. They just need to be connected to one of the groups making up the alliance of corrupt parasitic elites.
Gee, ya think?
Actually, borders are not so relevant. What’s more relevant is who lives there. Yugoslavia brought a lot of Albanian migrants in to a place that belonged to Serbia, they ended up losing Kosovo. The Donbass area is full of Russians and Russian-speaking people, it’s a similar situation to the Sudetenland in Czech lands before WWII. Actually, it’s worse, because in Donbass, it’s clear that the Ukrainians were shelling the poor people there and wanted to get rid of them, for years. So it makes sense for the Russians to protect their people there. How can you not see that?
European countries brought in a lot of Muslims, America brought in a lot of Mexicans, Canada brought in a lot of Indians and Chinese. We will see how that plays for those borders in a 100 years or less…
As for Bucha, it doesn’t make sense. I mean, I can understand the Russians trying to take Kiev and then that leading to a lot of dead civilians.
But here the narrative appears to be, “Hmm, the Ukies are too tough, we could not take Kiev, so let’s just kill some random Ukrainian civilians and that woman on a bike, then leave the next day, and let’s let the bodies just lying there, so we can be accused of war crimes”.
Ok… Stupid people believe stupid things, but I thought Steve was a bit smarter.
There don't appear to be any terms that are mutually acceptable so this is a fantasy.Replies: @PhysicistDave
James B. Shearer wrote to me:
There will be, eventually, Jim.
The Kiev thugs have openly admitted that they will lose to Russia unless the West militarily intervenes — such as by “closing the sky.” And the West won’t.
So, eventually Kiev will sue for peace.
The only question is how many Ukrainian citizens will have to die before the regime folds.
The earlier they sue for peace, the better the deal they will get. Before the invasion, Putin said he would settle for an independent Donbass, a neutral rump Ukraine, and Crimea as part of Russia.
Perhaps he will still accept that.
But as Russia annihilates the Kievan military forces, Putin will recognize that he can get more — at least the whole Black Sea coast, including Odessa.
A negotiated peace is not fantasy — it is what will end up being reality.
But the longer the Kiev puppet regime puts off making peace, the harsher it will be.
I don’t care what happens to Penis-Piano-Player Zelensky and his fellow thugs.
But I would like to see an end to the deaths of Ukrainian civilians.
The killing must stop.
And it will only stop with a negotiated peace that both parties accept.
It is currently a fantasy because the warring parties both consider the terms they could obtain to be worse than continuing to fight.Replies: @PhysicistDave
Here’s his dreadful advice on Feb 27 to Zelensky to surrender half of Ukraine to Putin’s murderous and failing vanity war:
“ I suspect the deal that Putin will offer Zelensky is:
A) The killing stops.
B) Ukraine retains the territory west of the Dnieper if Ukraine foreswears ever joining NATO and agrees to enforceable guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality.
C) You, Zelensky, get to live.
Zelensky could have gotten a better deal before the invasion. He will be lucky to get this now.”
Putin is a bloodthirsty and incompetent dictator who has brought disaster and disgrace to his people. The cope of his fanboys like Dave here will only get ever more cringey as Putin’s evil and incompetence becomes ever more undeniable for people with a modicum of self respect.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave
Anon[218] wrote about me:
Putin is a democratically elected leader who seems to be quite popular among the Russian people. The demands he made on Ukraine are much, much more moderate than the demands the US has repeatedly imposed on the Western hemisphere (the so-called “Monroe Doctrine”).
I am an anarchist, so I am certainly no “fanboy” of Putin or any other governmental leader. I look forward to the day when would-be political leaders get less respect than Bozo the Clown (who, after all, did not kill anyone). You are just lying about that (interesting that you do not even have the guts to use a screen name!).
But, being an anarchist, I do want the killing to stop. And that will only come when the puppet regime in Kiev is willing to agree to peace terms that Putin and the Russian people find reasonable: self-determination for the Donbass and neutrality for the rump Ukraine.
That has nothing to do with being “cringey” or having a “modicum of self respect.”
It is just reality.
Hate Putin all you want. But if you are ever mugged by a guy with a gun, and you are unarmed, and he demands your wallet, I strongly suggest that you put aside issues of cringiness and self respect, simply because he has a gun.
You want to view Putin as a mugger? Cool. I’m with you, since, as an anarchist, I view all governments as gangs of thieves if not outright murderers.
But this particular mugger, Vladimir Putin, has an awful lot of guns.
He is going to have his way with Ukraine.
As an anarchist, I oppose murder. And the only way to end the killing is for the puppet regime in Kiev to recognize reality, just as you better do if you are ever mugged by a guy with a gun.
The killing must stop.
It seems to me as if one side couldn’t care less about the Ukrainians, just as long as Putin & C0. doesn’t come out of this looking like a winner.
"scrap of paper" that big powers can shred whenever they feel like? As opposed to harboring bitter grievances about some imaginary handshake deal about not-one-inch-Eastward or whatever that no one can even find any signature for? Is that really so hard for people to understand? It shouldn't be, but this is a site with a high percentage of kooks and loons and conspiracy nuts, so I've learned to keep my expectations in check.As for you in particular, Mr. No-one-ever-had-it-worse-than-we-did, sorry to get in the way of your desperate attempt to make everything -- yet again -- all about you and your bed-wetting, and I'm guessing it's the deep and abiding shame of that which is eating away at you. That's really what's going on here, isn't it? Truly, I think you need to find some way to finally let that go, but regardless, THAT is what got us here. Next time, maybe you try keeping up.Replies: @PhysicistDave
My pal HA wrote:
A serious question: did we ever commit to go to war to protect Ukraine?
Is this part where you try to pretend that providing support in the way we are is an indisputable "declaration of war" that forces us to send soldiers to Ukraine, or somesuch? Even though you know it's not and the answer to your question is no? Is that what your troll outfit advises you is the meme of the moment?
Obviously, Moscow Gollum can claim that anyone who even looks at him funny is declaring war on Russia. Given that you're beholden to him, I know that you'll agree, but that doesn't make it true. And if he gets another bad injection of steroids, or a bad reaction to his chemo, he can claim that even Sarah Palin's house, from where she admits to "spying" on Russia, is itself a provocation that amounts to a declaration of war. Again, it doesn't mean any of that is true, or that Alaskans have to henceforth make sure their houses have no Western-facing windows, but I realize that won't stop you and the other fanboys from trying to claim that, actually, he's really being quite reasonable when you think about it, and we should therefore find a "compromise" that basically gives him whatever stupid thing he asks for, or at least half of it, and sets him up to run the same scam to get the remaining half whenever he decides anything else we do is a provocation. All in the interest of "peace", of course. I mean, we don't want to risk a nuclear war, do we?
Is that the gist? If so, I'm not falling for it. I don't care how "humiliated" or "hurt" Russia feels by sanctions, or by the weapons we're sending to Ukrainians, or by getting kicked out of this group or next, it doesn't amount to a declaration of war on our end. If you're no longer confident that Russia and its many troll contingents will see it that way on their end, then take that up with them.Replies: @PhysicistDave
This first problem, though, is "our" elites seems to hold the opposite view.
The second problem—not only in Ukraine but many other places—is even if everyone agrees war-bad-border-good, where exactly is the good border? Where the Kiev regime wants it? Or where the people in Donbas—who actually live within it—want it?
On such questions, apocalyptic wars are waged.Replies: @AndrewR, @PiltdownMan, @Matt Buckalew, @AnotherDad, @Steve Sailer
“Where exactly is the good border?”
Where is the border between your yard and your neighbor’s yard?
Not where your neighbor feels it should be moved to based solely on his desire.
If Mr. Putin wants to redraw the border, he can offer to buy the land from the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Ironically, that would have been cheaper than this war.
What the Russians are doing and what the Ukrainians are doing is NOT similar. At the end of WWII, a handful of American soldiers, shocked at what they saw at Dachau, shot some of the camp guards. This doesn't mean that the US Army was "similar" to the SS. As Stalin said, quantity has its own quality.Replies: @War for Blair Mountain, @Almost Missouri, @Steve Sailer
I would hardly be surprised if Ukrainian patriots have done some very bad things to Ukrainian collaborators or would-be collaborators.
Neither side has an interest in publicizing such deeds, if they happened, right now: the Ukrainians want to be seen as the morally pure side and the Russians don’t want to frighten their potential collaborators in Ukraine.
The United States of America has really good borders. It’s would be very stupid of American citizens to denigrate either the concept of borders or their current embodiment.
It seems to all be a matter of whose ox is being gored.
Or as the Soviets liked to put it: «Кто кого?»
Americans are so admirably flexible when it comes to morality!
Personally, I just love secession.
The ground my house sits on is on American soil rather than Mexican soil due to the Mexican-American War.
A half-dozen years before it broke out, Harvard man Richard Henry Dana published a bestseller, “Two Years Before the Mast,” in which he described the various pleasant places he visited in Mexican California while a sailor. The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it’s quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world … and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.
Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence had a fair amount to due with the Proclamation of 1763 to close off American settlement in the Ohio River Valley until London could figure out what’s going on with the Indian tribes and the settlers. And we got Puerto Rico through conquest, which turned out to be not as good a deal as California.
Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase — Missouri Purchase, Gadsden, Alaska — negotiation (resolution of 54-40 controversy), or subterfuge (Hawaii).
One of my co-workers in Palo Alto tried to convince me that Menlo Park, next door to Palo Alto, was heaven on earth.
I am afraid that I made fun of him.
La Jolla was much more pleasant -- both summer and winter.
The Bay Area fog is a pain in more ways than one.Replies: @Pat Kittle
I assume you mean the Louisiana Purchase.
Yeah, I know: it's all flyover country!
Sailer also wrote: Putting that all together, that is almost all of the territory of the USA.
That is a bit inconsistent with your saying, "Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase..."
In the context of this discussion, where a war is declared over a border dispute, none of those wars were over borders. The War of 1812 was over trade. The US invaded Canada not to take permanent territory but to force the British into trade negotiations. The "Civil War" was over economic policy and ultimately succession. The North and South weren't fighting over a dispute of the Mason Dixon Line. The War of Independence was about escaping the rule of an oppressive governing empire, hense the Independence part.
What I find odd curious about Bucha is that it makes the news a week or so after Biden announces that "Russia is killing civilians" and that "Putin is a war criminal" as he was bidden by his advisors.Replies: @Paul Jolliffe
“What I find odd curious about Bucha is that it makes the news a week or so after Biden announces that “Russia is killing civilians” and that “Putin is a war criminal” as he was bidden by his advisors.”
I agree.
This seems to be a part of a psy-op (albeit not a very well executed one) to persuade the West and America in particular to increase the “help” to Ukraine.
Do the planners of all this desire a nuclear exchange between Russia and America?
Hmm.
What other society or country might benefit from such an outcome?
“Cui bono?” might (Might) be useful here.
Where is the border between your yard and your neighbor's yard?
Not where your neighbor feels it should be moved to based solely on his desire.
If Mr. Putin wants to redraw the border, he can offer to buy the land from the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Ironically, that would have been cheaper than this war.Replies: @Loyalty Over IQ Worship
Is Ukraine sovereign or a puppet of Victoria Nuland and the CIA?
It’s cutesy to say he should’ve bought the land, but as we can see, Zelensky’s masters would’ve never allowed it. They’re determined to destroy Russia. The whole point is that Russia couldn’t offer anything that would satisfy the Usual Suspects.
Russia isn’t doing some Caesar-like adventure. They feel profoundly threatened. And given all the vitriol coming from our media and our senators is it surprising? Senators never called for the killing of Brezhnev or Stalin, but they do Putin. Something threatens them about Russia. And apparently it threatens you too.
Yeah, Caesar was a winner, whose life was one brilliant victory over a more numerous foe after another.
Putin single-handedly has ruined the good reputation of the Russian military that took the sacrifices of WWII and the Cold War to build up. He’s a loser.
Here’s his dreadful advice on Feb 27 to Zelensky to surrender half of Ukraine to Putin’s murderous and failing vanity war:
“ I suspect the deal that Putin will offer Zelensky is:
A) The killing stops.
B) Ukraine retains the territory west of the Dnieper if Ukraine foreswears ever joining NATO and agrees to enforceable guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality.
C) You, Zelensky, get to live.
Zelensky could have gotten a better deal before the invasion. He will be lucky to get this now.”
Putin is a bloodthirsty and incompetent dictator who has brought disaster and disgrace to his people. The cope of his fanboys like Dave here will only get ever more cringey as Putin’s evil and incompetence becomes ever more undeniable for people with a modicum of self respect.Replies: @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave
Anon[218] wrote:
Hey, I forgot to thank you for digging up my earlier comment and reposting it here!
Sounds pretty prescient now, doesn’t it?
You think Zelensky can get that deal now? As I said back then, I think he will be lucky to get a deal that good.
Remember: Kiev has said they cannot win without a NATO-imposed no-fly zone. Which they will not get.
Kiev is going down for the count.
Better they get the best deal they can get now.
The killing must stop.
Sailer wrote:
Well… the US elites were awfully pleased to see the borders of the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991!
It seems to all be a matter of whose ox is being gored.
Or as the Soviets liked to put it: «Кто кого?»
Americans are so admirably flexible when it comes to morality!
Personally, I just love secession.
Except that they didn’t. As I have explained, it is a strategic retreat. Taking Kiev would have huge geopolitical importance, but the actual strategic importance of it is null. You don’t conquer a country by taking it’s large cities, as weapons are not made inside of them, nor is food planted inside them. You conquer the country by starving it of resources by taking out key factories and military bases, as well as cutting off their supply lines and all routes of access. This is what the Russians are doing.
You are delusional if you think that Ukraine will win this war. Even with the CIA providing NATO material to the Ukes, in a clear act of war, it is only a matter of time before the Ukes fold. This will come about after they are starving and with no bullets left for their rifles and not missiles for their javelins, and after their cities have been shelled into oblivion and they have nowhere to live or to hide. NATO is stupidly prolonging the agony of Ukraine by providing a life supply to them, not to mention inciting Russia’s wrath and a dirtect retaliation against NATO.
A half-dozen years before it broke out, Harvard man Richard Henry Dana published a bestseller, "Two Years Before the Mast," in which he described the various pleasant places he visited in Mexican California while a sailor. The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it's quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world ... and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.
Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence had a fair amount to due with the Proclamation of 1763 to close off American settlement in the Ohio River Valley until London could figure out what's going on with the Indian tribes and the settlers. And we got Puerto Rico through conquest, which turned out to be not as good a deal as California.
Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase -- Missouri Purchase, Gadsden, Alaska -- negotiation (resolution of 54-40 controversy), or subterfuge (Hawaii).Replies: @Zero Philosopher, @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave, @Mike Tre
Steve Sailer:
“The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it’s quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world … and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.”
Except that it’s not. There are literally thousands of places in southern Europe with a climate as good or better than the San Francisco Bay are. There is nothing special or unique about the mediterranean climate of the SFBA. It’s pretty common in, well, the mediterranean, which gives name to the entire micro-climate. You just say these things out of patriotism, and we both know that this is true.
And the mediterranean climate is only one of 3 climates that are considered ideal for human habitation. There is also the temperate oceanic climate and the subtropical altitude climate. Western Europe actually has a *lot* more of both the mediterranean climate and the temperate oceanic climate than the U.S.A. As for the subtropical altitude climate, it is not found in either Europe or the U.S. It’s found mostly in the mountainous regions of southern Brazil and southeastern Africa.
You are delusional if you think that Ukraine will win this war. Even with the CIA providing NATO material to the Ukes, in a clear act of war, it is only a matter of time before the Ukes fold. This will come about after they are starving and with no bullets left for their rifles and not missiles for their javelins, and after their cities have been shelled into oblivion and they have nowhere to live or to hide. NATO is stupidly prolonging the agony of Ukraine by providing a life supply to them, not to mention inciting Russia's wrath and a dirtect retaliation against NATO.Replies: @Steve Sailer
“You don’t conquer a country by taking it’s large cities”
That’s why the Shlieffen and Manstein Plans were to NOT conquer Paris. That’s why World War II in Europe went on for years after Berlin fell.
There are a lot of good books about the 1940 invasion; two I like are To Lose a Battle by Alistair Horne and The Blitzkrieg Legend by Karl Heinz Frieser.
Of course, if the goal was to destroy the Ukrainian army, Putin has failed there too. Up to now.
From Wikipedia:
"more than a thousand Paris enterprises were working in the sector of National Defense. Most of the defense factories were located in the outer neighborhoods of the city, particularly the 13th, 14th, 15th and 18th arrondissements."
As for Berlin, it more a costly showoff from Stalin's side (at the price of 80.000 Russians killed) than a strategic target. Stalin was just as obsessed with Berlin as was Hitler with Moscow and Stalingrad, and he constantly kept pushing the two Soviet Marshals, Zhukov and Konev to attack.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Washington
Putin seems to be doing a good job of destroying the young men of Russia in Mr. Putin’s War.
I have said many times that I would have advised Putin to at most go into the Donbass, and I am doubtful that even that is in the interest of the Russian people.
But it is pretty clear that Putin sees himself in an existential conflict with the West in which the Western overclass is determined to destroy Russia just as Western elites are currently destroying the West.
The Western elites actually seem to share that perspective -- the difference being they want Russia to lose and Putin does not want Russia to lose.
Given that perspective, Putin would reasonably be willing to bear a death toll as high as the Soviets suffered in the Great Patriotic War. It seems likely the cost will be far lower than that.
FIFY
https://inews.co.uk/news/putin-accused-using-troops-ethnic-minority-backgrounds-as-cannon-fodder-1539841
So even a loss is a win!
Who buys these crocodile tears? The anti-Russia crowd here celebrates Russians dying.
Russia feels they face an existential threat to their people, their nation, their civilization. If a nation feels that way, well, that’s what a military is for.
This is more about making sure no White people in the West get any dangerous ideas. Or any other group. So, “Mr Putin” (it’s really all of Russia) has to be demonized and portrayed as a failure lest we realize the Usual Suspects aren’t so powerful after all.
A half-dozen years before it broke out, Harvard man Richard Henry Dana published a bestseller, "Two Years Before the Mast," in which he described the various pleasant places he visited in Mexican California while a sailor. The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it's quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world ... and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.
Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence had a fair amount to due with the Proclamation of 1763 to close off American settlement in the Ohio River Valley until London could figure out what's going on with the Indian tribes and the settlers. And we got Puerto Rico through conquest, which turned out to be not as good a deal as California.
Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase -- Missouri Purchase, Gadsden, Alaska -- negotiation (resolution of 54-40 controversy), or subterfuge (Hawaii).Replies: @Zero Philosopher, @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave, @Mike Tre
Sailer wrote:
My wife and I lived near La Jolla for a few years and then moved to Palo Alto.
One of my co-workers in Palo Alto tried to convince me that Menlo Park, next door to Palo Alto, was heaven on earth.
I am afraid that I made fun of him.
La Jolla was much more pleasant — both summer and winter.
The Bay Area fog is a pain in more ways than one.
Steve Sailer wrote to Loyalty Over IQ Worship:
In the end, the Russian death toll will perhaps be proportionate to what the US lost in Vietnam: tiny compared to what the US lost in WW II and trivial compared to what the Soviets lost in WW II. Americans rebelled over the war in Vietnam because they saw it as having no existential relevance for the USA. Americans had radically different feelings about WW II, as did the Soviets.
I have said many times that I would have advised Putin to at most go into the Donbass, and I am doubtful that even that is in the interest of the Russian people.
But it is pretty clear that Putin sees himself in an existential conflict with the West in which the Western overclass is determined to destroy Russia just as Western elites are currently destroying the West.
The Western elites actually seem to share that perspective — the difference being they want Russia to lose and Putin does not want Russia to lose.
Given that perspective, Putin would reasonably be willing to bear a death toll as high as the Soviets suffered in the Great Patriotic War. It seems likely the cost will be far lower than that.
A half-dozen years before it broke out, Harvard man Richard Henry Dana published a bestseller, "Two Years Before the Mast," in which he described the various pleasant places he visited in Mexican California while a sailor. The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it's quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world ... and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.
Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence had a fair amount to due with the Proclamation of 1763 to close off American settlement in the Ohio River Valley until London could figure out what's going on with the Indian tribes and the settlers. And we got Puerto Rico through conquest, which turned out to be not as good a deal as California.
Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase -- Missouri Purchase, Gadsden, Alaska -- negotiation (resolution of 54-40 controversy), or subterfuge (Hawaii).Replies: @Zero Philosopher, @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave, @Mike Tre
Sailer wrote:
As a son of the Show-Me State, I must point out that the “Missouri Purchase” was very small indeed!
I assume you mean the Louisiana Purchase.
Yeah, I know: it’s all flyover country!
Sailer also wrote:
Putting that all together, that is almost all of the territory of the USA.
That is a bit inconsistent with your saying, “Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase…”
A half-dozen years before it broke out, Harvard man Richard Henry Dana published a bestseller, "Two Years Before the Mast," in which he described the various pleasant places he visited in Mexican California while a sailor. The climax of his book is when he gets to the San Francisco Bay area and realizes it's quite possibly the best place for human habitation in the world ... and practically nobody lives there, much less many Mexican soldiers.
Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence had a fair amount to due with the Proclamation of 1763 to close off American settlement in the Ohio River Valley until London could figure out what's going on with the Indian tribes and the settlers. And we got Puerto Rico through conquest, which turned out to be not as good a deal as California.
Over time, America mostly expanded its borders through purchase -- Missouri Purchase, Gadsden, Alaska -- negotiation (resolution of 54-40 controversy), or subterfuge (Hawaii).Replies: @Zero Philosopher, @PhysicistDave, @PhysicistDave, @Mike Tre
“Other American wars over borders include 1812, Civil War, and the War of Independence ”
In the context of this discussion, where a war is declared over a border dispute, none of those wars were over borders. The War of 1812 was over trade. The US invaded Canada not to take permanent territory but to force the British into trade negotiations. The “Civil War” was over economic policy and ultimately succession. The North and South weren’t fighting over a dispute of the Mason Dixon Line. The War of Independence was about escaping the rule of an oppressive governing empire, hense the Independence part.
Would the US allow Russian nuclear missiles to be put in, say, Cuba? Hmm…
The Lourdes SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) facility, located near Havana, Cuba, was the largest facility of its kind operated by Russian foreign intelligence services[2] outside of Russia. Located less than 150 km (93 mi) from Key West, the facility covered 73 km2 (28 sq mi). Construction began in July 1962.
At its peak during the Cold War over 1,500 KGB, GRU, Cuban DGI, and Eastern Bloc technicians, engineers and intelligence operatives staffed the facility.
You’re the tough guy acting like he wants to personally kill over six million Russian soldiers. I’m behind my keyboard, yes, asking Ukrainians to surrender.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army Given your military expertise, what's your opinion of the Russian KIAs so far? Most people here seem to think the official US/MSM estimate of 7K-15K Russian KIAs is absurdly inflated and the Russian figure of maybe 1,350 is probably about correct, though likely excluding the Donbas militia losses.
Like I said, I haven't really been paying much attention to the war, probably giving it less than 10% of my time and focus at least until a few days ago when I starting listening to Scott Ritter's very long interviews.Replies: @Twinkie, @Jack D
1,351 was an old number. Even the Russians aren’t stuck on that lie anymore. People here who want to follow the Moscow line have to keep up because the Moscow line keeps shifting. This used to be a problem for Moscow followers in the West. Nowadays you can probably get an app or something but in the old days you had to read the Daily Worker carefully or you could really get in trouble. You might be praising the heroic work of Comrade Yezhov only to find out that Comrade Yezhov was really a wrecker and this praise might put your own loyalty in question.
Yesterday, Putin spokesman Peskov said that the casualties were “a huge tragedy for us”. He didn’t release any new #s but presumably “a huge tragedy” implies more than 1,351 deaths.
In addition to the 7,000 to 15,000 deaths estimated by NATO (that was 2 weeks ago so by now we are probably on the high end of that range) they estimated total casualties (killed and wounded) in the range of 30 to 40,000. This is a significant chunk of the total # of Russians who invaded Ukraine and would explain why they withdrew from the Kiev region. Once a unit loses more than a certain % of its troops it loses its combat effectiveness. Key men (the Russians have lost 7 generals) are no longer present, important equipment has been lost and those who remain are demoralized. There is no hope of using such units to advance further and keeping them in place was just causing further losses as ATGMs and accurately placed artillery, etc. continued to rain down on their head despite their state of the art tree branch and hay stack camouflage.
During the second battle of Falluja in 2004, the U.S. 1st Marine Division fired over 5,000 155mm artillery rounds into the town. Intense shelling and air attacks as well as ground combat were estimated to have destroyed something like 7,000-10,000 out of 50,000 buildings in Falluja and a good chunk of the rest suffered significant damage.
Again, this is from the most lawyered-up military force in human history.Replies: @Jack D
I thought you told me that destroying a city was not a good tactic – it just creates more hiding places for insurgents. Why did the Marines do this if it’s not effective?
As I understand it, following the artillery bombardment, the Marines immediately (the next day) entered the city (after clearing the streets with armored bulldozers). Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique.
But this isn’t what the Russians are doing. They seem to randomly destroy some apartment building or train station, often quite distant from the front lines, with missiles, where the only goal seems to be to kill civilians and sow terror. They have been bombarding Mariupol for over a month now but the ground assault never comes. So this seems to be quite unlike what the Marines did in Fallujah.
The two battles of Fallujah were precipitated when a Blackwater convoy was ambushed in early 2004 there. Several Americans were killed, including former Navy SEAL Scott Helvenston (RIP). His body (along with another contractor's) was burnt, mutilated, and hung on a bridge. This angered us Americans enormously and also created a great deal of pressure from Washington to do something about the culprits and Fallujah.
If we have to fight a bloody urban battle, something has gone terribly wrong. You are talking out of your ass again.
Up until, and including, the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War, artillery was a direct fire weapon, meaning you could see at what you were firing. World War I was when indirect fire, utilizing trigonometry, came into widespread use. And it was also the first truly industrial war. Massive number of artillery shells were consumed. But the combatants quickly figured out that, while psychologically extremely straining (imagine someone using a jackhammer for hours outside your house or, worse, being inside an MRI machine all day), artillery began to lose effectiveness as field fortifications came into use. Worse still, lengthy artillery barrages churned up the ground making your own infantry assault slow and the barrages tipped the enemy to the axis of attack, so that he could bring up reinforcements to the so-called Swehrpunkt.
So by the end of the war, especially during the Ludendorff Offensives, the Germans came up with a new tactic. Instead of mass artillery barrage and a general infantry charge over the trenches (which turned out to be horrifically bloody for the attacker), the Germans would launch a very short, sharp artillery barrage (so as not to alert the enemy to the main axis of attack), followed by infantry infiltration teams that bypassed, rather than fighting, the strongpoints, leaving the latter to be dealt by the follow-on forces and instead concentrating on getting maximum penetration to wreak havoc on the command, control, and communication of the enemy to the rear. This, in effect, presaged their armored warfare doctrine in World War II.
Artillery, when used properly, is extremely effective. It was responsible for the plurality of men killed during World War II. But the key operating phrase there is "when used properly." Artillery is effective when 1) there is proper observation, 2) timely communication, and 3) when there is sufficient concentration of enemy.
Historically, Americans the Russians had differing approaches to the use of artillery. For the U.S. Army, with varying levels of actual implementation and success, it tried to follow what the Germans call Auftragstaktik (roughly "recon-pull") where the forward elements of the attack or reconnaissance identifies the appropriate line of advance and "pulls" resources of firepower such as artillery, air attack, and follow-on exploitation forces into the identified gap or weak points. The Soviets, on the other hand, would tend to concentrate a massive amount of artillery at what the planning and command staff considered the decisive point and create a large positive "correlation of force" to create breakthroughs (the Germans call this approach Befehlstaktik or "command-push").
So, yeah, it's a tad more complicated than just firing a mass barrage and launching an infantry assault.Replies: @stari_momak, @Jack D
Actually the objective of the Manstein Plan was to cut off and destroy the French Army in Belgium. Paris fell in a second phase starting June 5(?) after the goals of the Manstein Plan had been (Dunkirk aside) achieved.
There are a lot of good books about the 1940 invasion; two I like are To Lose a Battle by Alistair Horne and The Blitzkrieg Legend by Karl Heinz Frieser.
Of course, if the goal was to destroy the Ukrainian army, Putin has failed there too. Up to now.
Neither side has an interest in publicizing such deeds, if they happened, right now: the Ukrainians want to be seen as the morally pure side and the Russians don't want to frighten their potential collaborators in Ukraine.Replies: @Jack D
Interesting thought. Many people here (falsely) claimed that the people lying dead in the street with their hands tied up might have been collaborators killed by the Ukrainian resistance during the Russian occupation but the Russians themselves made no such claims – they said that these corpses had been placed on the street AFTER they left (not taking into account that nowadays there are cameras everywhere including up in the sky).
They would have had less problems with their timeline if they made the former claim but they didn’t. Perhaps you have hit the reason, although frankly the Russian lies seem to be situational and ad hoc and there doesn’t seem to be any grand strategy or consistency to them other than to refute everything that casts them in a bad light.
Regardless of whether Ukrainians are killing collaborators elsewhere, there appears to be abundant evidence such as survivor testimony that the dead on the street in Bucha were mostly or all killed by the Russians.
In any case, a favorite Russian tactic is to point to something that the West has done in error or on a very small scale and use this to license massive and intentional misconduct by the Russians Instead of emulating the best of the West, they seek to emulate the worst. As Stalin said, quantity has its own quality. One or two collaborators or Russian prisoners killed by rogue Ukrainian irregulars is not the same as a Moscow directed campaign of genocide.
“Russia isn’t doing some Caesar-like adventure. ”
Yeah, Caesar was a winner, whose life was one brilliant victory over a more numerous foe after another.
Putin single-handedly has ruined the good reputation of the Russian military that took the sacrifices of WWII and the Cold War to build up. He’s a loser.
“A serious question: did we ever commit to go to war to protect Ukraine?”
Is this part where you try to pretend that providing support in the way we are is an indisputable “declaration of war” that forces us to send soldiers to Ukraine, or somesuch? Even though you know it’s not and the answer to your question is no? Is that what your troll outfit advises you is the meme of the moment?
Obviously, Moscow Gollum can claim that anyone who even looks at him funny is declaring war on Russia. Given that you’re beholden to him, I know that you’ll agree, but that doesn’t make it true. And if he gets another bad injection of steroids, or a bad reaction to his chemo, he can claim that even Sarah Palin’s house, from where she admits to “spying” on Russia, is itself a provocation that amounts to a declaration of war. Again, it doesn’t mean any of that is true, or that Alaskans have to henceforth make sure their houses have no Western-facing windows, but I realize that won’t stop you and the other fanboys from trying to claim that, actually, he’s really being quite reasonable when you think about it, and we should therefore find a “compromise” that basically gives him whatever stupid thing he asks for, or at least half of it, and sets him up to run the same scam to get the remaining half whenever he decides anything else we do is a provocation. All in the interest of “peace”, of course. I mean, we don’t want to risk a nuclear war, do we?
Is that the gist? If so, I’m not falling for it. I don’t care how “humiliated” or “hurt” Russia feels by sanctions, or by the weapons we’re sending to Ukrainians, or by getting kicked out of this group or next, it doesn’t amount to a declaration of war on our end. If you’re no longer confident that Russia and its many troll contingents will see it that way on their end, then take that up with them.
Sarcasm aside, I am merely trying to find out what you meant by the following statement to Mike Tre: I.e., what obligation do yo think "we made the first time around"?
I am not aware of any such obligations.
Are you?
And, do you agree with Zelensky that nothing we can give Ukraine is going to make much difference unless we impose a no-fly zone? So, do you want us to impose a no-fly zone and start shooting down Russian planes?
HA also wrote: Well, I don't care either. I frankly doubt that Putin cares -- the West seems unable to stop his military operation, and I think that is all he cares about.
I, on the other hand, do care about the civilians who are being killed, and the only way I see to stop that is a negotiated peace. Do you have a better idea?Replies: @HA
Lose the scolding tone. The emotional blackmail techniques aren’t going to work.Replies: @HA
“It works just fine because it’s the truth. Command and control of the nukes were always in Moscow.”
Not if they involve Ukrainians doing anything. Once the ability to order them around shifts to Kiev, Moscow gets snipped out of the equation. Either it’s the Soviet Union, or it’s Russia. Fish, or cut bait. Stop trying to have it both ways.
It’s such a pity your deep insights into nuclear command control didn’t get the attention they deserved back when people who actually do know something about logic (I mean the real kind, not the “shape and form” handwaving version of it you seem to prefer) decided to hammer this out in the form of a negotiated agreement, but alas, here we are. That agreement was signed, and now, if we live up to it, there’s a hope that some similar (but preferably, meatier) agreement will be signed that allows both parties in this war, the victim and the aggressor, to declare “good enough”. It might just work. Those of you who pretend to care about peace should keep that in mind. Whereas pretending, some decades later, that we never should have had to negotiate that disarmament and therefore no longer have any obligation to the documents we signed to bring it about is not much different than Moscow Gollum suddenly deciding they’re just a “scrap of paper” he can ignore. That approach rarely works out well.
So get over it. You’ll no doubt convince plenty of fanboys, but not anyone who has a clue. We signed, and the bill is now due. You can claim that, really, the used car you drove out of the dealership should have been yours all along because the original owner was your buddy, or something, but given that you signed on the bottom line, you’d better keep making those payments.
You have to get over your ethnic hatred of Russians from generations ago.Replies: @HA
“The Ukraine never had any nukes. Those were Soviet nukes. Russia is the successor state to the Soviet Union. Ukraine didn’t have command and control of ‘its’ nukes.”
Sorry “stari momak” or “old decrepit geezer”, or whatever handle you choose so as to lord over the rest of us your knowledge of “Slavic”, Ukraine did indeed have “command and control” of Soviet-controlled Moscow fell to Kiev. Or at least could have claimed as much, if we had ever been stupid enough to allow things to go that far. And as Reg Ceasar pointed out once, the last remaining Soviet state was actually Kazakhstan, not Russia. Moreover, if America ever dissolves in the way many of you are dreaming, DC doesn’t get to claim every bit of everything it considers important. They can certainly try, but it’s probably going to have to get negotiated. And if signatures are signed the way they were in the case of Ukraine, and what portions of the Soviet Union it got to retain and which portions it agreed to relinquish, then people are going to need to live up to those signatures. Obviously, if we’re talking about Russia and Chine, their signatures mean nothing, but the rest will therefore need to step up. See my earlier comment about the used car that your buddy originally owned. You can keep muttering to yourself that ownership should have been yours all along, but if you signed the forms at the used-car dealer, you’d better honor that agreement and keep up with the payments.
Again, it’s odd to me that the very same people who tell us “never trust the Americans” are the ones who think the Americans shouldn’t care about honoring agreements that we actually signed (as opposed to fictitious under-the-table handshakes in some backroom that fixed the boundaries of NATO without involving a single NATO official or resulting in a single signature whatsoever).
Talk about self-fulfilling prophecies.
How many trees gave their lives so that Fred could sell his 1979 Ford Pinto?
The L.A. Times classified section had a bizarre practice where it printed names of various corporations and organizations and the phrase “Have a nice day” dozens of times under the heading “Institutional Messages”. Evidently it was some kind of filler material. I’ve never seen any other newspaper do this.
Yesterday, Putin spokesman Peskov said that the casualties were "a huge tragedy for us". He didn't release any new #s but presumably "a huge tragedy" implies more than 1,351 deaths.
In addition to the 7,000 to 15,000 deaths estimated by NATO (that was 2 weeks ago so by now we are probably on the high end of that range) they estimated total casualties (killed and wounded) in the range of 30 to 40,000. This is a significant chunk of the total # of Russians who invaded Ukraine and would explain why they withdrew from the Kiev region. Once a unit loses more than a certain % of its troops it loses its combat effectiveness. Key men (the Russians have lost 7 generals) are no longer present, important equipment has been lost and those who remain are demoralized. There is no hope of using such units to advance further and keeping them in place was just causing further losses as ATGMs and accurately placed artillery, etc. continued to rain down on their head despite their state of the art tree branch and hay stack camouflage.Replies: @Ron Unz
You really seem exceptionally “excitable” about this issue. Since the 1,351 figure was from a week ago, I’m sure it’s indeed a little higher, but you don’t have any evidence to say it’s all that much higher.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Each one of these tanks, APVs, trucks, etc. would have had several crew members.
Here's some evidence:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html
I suppose you could go to Ukraine and actually count the bodies in the morgues. Or the Russians could accept back the bodies of their fallen soldiers and reunite them with their loved ones as is done by all civilized countries.
Maybe the Ukrainians are lying but it seems to be a strange kind of lie because the Russians could easily call them on it and if they didn't produce the bodies it would be a source of further friction. Also they are distinguishing between the number they claim have been killed (19,000) and the number of bodies that they are holding (7,000). If they were just liars they could claim to have 19,000 corpses.Replies: @Twinkie, @Ron Unz
Like I said, I haven’t closely followed the fighting, but that sort of figure seems extremely high to me. I know that the pro-Russia types have been claiming that the Ukrainians are fabricating all sorts of information, double- or quadruple-counting destroyed Russian vehicles, or palming off destroyed Ukrainian ones as Russian. Since the MSM is 100% biased on the anti-Russia side, I assume it would be easy to get away with that. How solid are those remarkably high vehicle-loss figures?
One reason I’ve been paying attention to Ritter and Macgregor is that they’d both military experts and they’re going against a 100% MSM tide, so I can’t see why they’d be saying what they are unless they actually believed it. Maybe they’re wrong, but I think they’re probably being honest.
Exactly the same sort of thing happened in the lead-up to the Iraq War:
https://www.unz.com/runz/the-life-and-legacy-of-lt-gen-william-odom/
The compilers might be pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian or whatever the case may be, but the visual confirmation is pretty solid I think. So far:
Russia - 2614, of which: destroyed: 1357, damaged: 38, abandoned: 237, captured: 982
Ukraine - 701, of which: destroyed: 311, damaged: 24, abandoned: 37, captured: 329
Now, the Russians seem to have lost a lot of actual tanks and APCs/IFVs compared to what we lost in Iraq (where the overwhelming majority of losses, something like 750 out of 900-1,000, was made up of trucks and Humvees), but that makes sense given that the Ukrainians received a huge supply of ATGMs such as NLAWs and Javelins (whereas the Iraq insurgents relied on unguided RPGs and improvised explosives). I try not to guess motives of people. I can only go by what they say and how reality lines up against that. As I warned others more than once, it's not conducive to creating a good model of reality if you get sucked into playing our domestic politics onto foreign affairs or scientific issues. In the latter realms, the enemy of my enemy isn't necessarily my friend. You shouldn't let the outlandishly propagandistic nature of our MSM to lead you into believing everything the critics of the MSM say, because the latter usually have their own interests and issues that may be at odds with the truth (if not truth-telling).
Anyone who tells you that the Russians are building up Zelensky as a hero and intentionally not blocking his comm channels, so that they can do some sort of a 64-D chess and make it easier to make peace with him later is, at best, engaging in a contorted mental-gymnastics to convince himself and others or, at worst, is not being truthful. Indeed. The MSM was shrill about how every little difficulty was a sign of an American "quagmire" (remember that word, being bandied about by everyone?). The irony is, of course, that, in the long-run, it turned out to be true (if not factual about the initial success).
I don't have a dog in this fight. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is of little concern to me when we are having a surge of illegal immigrants on our southern border again and my own neighborhood is starting to be inundated by Indian immigrants. I am much more worried about the narco-cartelization of our Southwest and the coming immiseration of our lower and middle classes than some squabble in Eastern Europe. I also don't see Putin as a some sort of a based savior of Western civilization (Russia has never been a part of the West) nor do I see Putin as some sort a Hitlerian villain in a Holocaust morality play.
What I am most interested in this war is acquiring "lessons learned" for my team, the United States of America in any future conflict. To the extent I take sides in this war, I am mildly pro-Ukrainian, because I don't like invaders trying to change borders by force and damage sovereign territorial integrity. But I am also someone who opposes the extreme expansion of NATO and Western influence beyond Poland and believes that Russia should have its own sphere of influence (anyway you cut it, Russia is a major power and should be treated as such - we wouldn't like it if a possibly hostile power started to meddle in Canada).
That doesn't mean you should take what I write as Gospel (since I can be wrong, and I most certainly was about how the conflict started and how badly it has gone for the Russian army so far), and what I write should be rigorously verified and validated against other sources, but I don't have ulterior motives or a hobby horse in this fight.Replies: @Ron Unz
The insulting thing about this argument is that you expect people to take it seriously.
The sad thing about it is that, on this site, some certainly will.Replies: @Ron Unz
What evidence do you have beside the laughable Russian claims? As Twinkie pointed out, it appears that over two thousand pieces of Russian equipment have been destroyed (this is well documented despite of course the usual Russian attempts at denial of the obvious):
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Each one of these tanks, APVs, trucks, etc. would have had several crew members.
Here’s some evidence:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html
I suppose you could go to Ukraine and actually count the bodies in the morgues. Or the Russians could accept back the bodies of their fallen soldiers and reunite them with their loved ones as is done by all civilized countries.
Maybe the Ukrainians are lying but it seems to be a strange kind of lie because the Russians could easily call them on it and if they didn’t produce the bodies it would be a source of further friction. Also they are distinguishing between the number they claim have been killed (19,000) and the number of bodies that they are holding (7,000). If they were just liars they could claim to have 19,000 corpses.
The Russian military has lost over 2,000 vehicles so far. This figure is based on visually confirmed cases and includes destroyed, damaged and abandoned, and captured.Replies: @Jack D
For twenty years I've been saying that if we'd simply rounded up and summarily butchered all the Neocons together with their wives and children, we'd have a lot more peace and quiet in America. But nobody took my sensible advice, so here we are now...Replies: @Anonymous
Sarcasm noted, Steve, but in 1914 most of France’s armament factories was located in or near the capital, making the Schlieffen plan a logical choice at the time.
From Wikipedia:
“more than a thousand Paris enterprises were working in the sector of National Defense. Most of the defense factories were located in the outer neighborhoods of the city, particularly the 13th, 14th, 15th and 18th arrondissements.”
As for Berlin, it more a costly showoff from Stalin’s side (at the price of 80.000 Russians killed) than a strategic target. Stalin was just as obsessed with Berlin as was Hitler with Moscow and Stalingrad, and he constantly kept pushing the two Soviet Marshals, Zhukov and Konev to attack.
You know that the Russians had very extensive bases in Cuba, right?
The Lourdes SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) facility, located near Havana, Cuba, was the largest facility of its kind operated by Russian foreign intelligence services[2] outside of Russia. Located less than 150 km (93 mi) from Key West, the facility covered 73 km2 (28 sq mi). Construction began in July 1962.
At its peak during the Cold War over 1,500 KGB, GRU, Cuban DGI, and Eastern Bloc technicians, engineers and intelligence operatives staffed the facility.
As I understand it, following the artillery bombardment, the Marines immediately (the next day) entered the city (after clearing the streets with armored bulldozers). Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique.
But this isn't what the Russians are doing. They seem to randomly destroy some apartment building or train station, often quite distant from the front lines, with missiles, where the only goal seems to be to kill civilians and sow terror. They have been bombarding Mariupol for over a month now but the ground assault never comes. So this seems to be quite unlike what the Marines did in Fallujah.Replies: @Professional Slav, @Twinkie
This is explained but the ineptitude of Russian intelligence. It’s then manifested in the classic Russian propaganda – if missiles hit some structure X and kill military = great success, our intel is the best! If civilians were killed = Ukranians nazis are again killing their own, we must liberate them. The mistake is not and can never be acknowledged, so it keeps happenining.
That shift never happened. The command and control of the nuclear weapons were never in the hands of any Ukrainian. It was always controlled by Russians. It was never a real option for those nukes to be used or sold by anyone other than Russians.
You have to get over your ethnic hatred of Russians from generations ago.
They weren't in the hands of any "Russian" per se, either. They were in the hands of SOVIETS. Why do you conveniently keep forgetting that? They were likewise guarded and maintained and looked after by police and military and technicians and a whole supporting cast of characters whose loyalties with respect to Soviet/Russian/Ukrainian/undecided/confused was murky at that point. You can continue to insist otherwise, but evidently, no one outside your fanboy bubble really cared what the likes of you thought; not then, and not now.
On the contrary, the US decided to help negotiate an agreement that put any of that ambiguity to rest. Thereby turning what could have been, in the parlance of the day a "Yugoslavia with nukes" (I think that "stari momak" fellow might furrow his aged brow on reading that, if Google-translate identified him correctly) into a peaceful transfer of power that worked just fine until Putin decided he had to have more and trashed it.
Again, for better or worse, people who actually knew what they were talking about decided to ignore the likes of you, and those who continue then as now to insist that "Russia gets it all" and decided instead that all this was better negotiated in writing, with some quid pro quo assurances thrown in.
So, go ahead and rage against your implicit irrelevance however you like, it won't change a thing. There's an actual document I can point to -- you've got nothing but evidence-free bluster.
"You have to get over your ethnic hatred of Russians from generations ago."
You know absolutely zip about my ethnic background (i.e. apparently a lot less than you think you do). Maybe it's your own ethnic vendettas you should address first? Moreover, let go of that creepy Putin-boosting, and your bizarre conviction that "Soviet" is identical to "Russian" (if only by way of who gets to claim what). If you're what passes for a defender of Russians, they have little need of enemies (though your boy Putin keeps finding ways to make even more).
I don’t know if you’re being disingenuous on purpose, or if you actually believe this. Like I said, conquering a country’s capital has huge *geopolitical* importance. Actual bringing the country down? no.
The reason why the fall of Berlin marked the end of the war is because Adolf Hitler and the entire elite of the Nazi Party were in Berlin at the end, you ignorant. In a country with a highly centralized leadership like Nazi Germany, you take the head of the snake, you kill the snake.
This does NOT apply to a country where the people are willing to wage guerrilla warfare in the countryside forever. Why are you even comparing the two things? For instance, America held Saigon for 10 years and still lost the war. Riddle me that? How does holding the country’s capital have any effect at winning the war?
Your comment is asinine. The fact that you use a sarcastic tone in your reply trying to shoot me down makes it even more asinine.
As I understand it, following the artillery bombardment, the Marines immediately (the next day) entered the city (after clearing the streets with armored bulldozers). Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique.
But this isn't what the Russians are doing. They seem to randomly destroy some apartment building or train station, often quite distant from the front lines, with missiles, where the only goal seems to be to kill civilians and sow terror. They have been bombarding Mariupol for over a month now but the ground assault never comes. So this seems to be quite unlike what the Marines did in Fallujah.Replies: @Professional Slav, @Twinkie
The second battle of Fallujah was the bloodiest in all of the Iraq War and ended badly for all parties concerned.
The two battles of Fallujah were precipitated when a Blackwater convoy was ambushed in early 2004 there. Several Americans were killed, including former Navy SEAL Scott Helvenston (RIP). His body (along with another contractor’s) was burnt, mutilated, and hung on a bridge. This angered us Americans enormously and also created a great deal of pressure from Washington to do something about the culprits and Fallujah.
If we have to fight a bloody urban battle, something has gone terribly wrong.
You are talking out of your ass again.
Up until, and including, the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War, artillery was a direct fire weapon, meaning you could see at what you were firing. World War I was when indirect fire, utilizing trigonometry, came into widespread use. And it was also the first truly industrial war. Massive number of artillery shells were consumed. But the combatants quickly figured out that, while psychologically extremely straining (imagine someone using a jackhammer for hours outside your house or, worse, being inside an MRI machine all day), artillery began to lose effectiveness as field fortifications came into use. Worse still, lengthy artillery barrages churned up the ground making your own infantry assault slow and the barrages tipped the enemy to the axis of attack, so that he could bring up reinforcements to the so-called Swehrpunkt.
So by the end of the war, especially during the Ludendorff Offensives, the Germans came up with a new tactic. Instead of mass artillery barrage and a general infantry charge over the trenches (which turned out to be horrifically bloody for the attacker), the Germans would launch a very short, sharp artillery barrage (so as not to alert the enemy to the main axis of attack), followed by infantry infiltration teams that bypassed, rather than fighting, the strongpoints, leaving the latter to be dealt by the follow-on forces and instead concentrating on getting maximum penetration to wreak havoc on the command, control, and communication of the enemy to the rear. This, in effect, presaged their armored warfare doctrine in World War II.
Artillery, when used properly, is extremely effective. It was responsible for the plurality of men killed during World War II. But the key operating phrase there is “when used properly.” Artillery is effective when 1) there is proper observation, 2) timely communication, and 3) when there is sufficient concentration of enemy.
Historically, Americans the Russians had differing approaches to the use of artillery. For the U.S. Army, with varying levels of actual implementation and success, it tried to follow what the Germans call Auftragstaktik (roughly “recon-pull”) where the forward elements of the attack or reconnaissance identifies the appropriate line of advance and “pulls” resources of firepower such as artillery, air attack, and follow-on exploitation forces into the identified gap or weak points. The Soviets, on the other hand, would tend to concentrate a massive amount of artillery at what the planning and command staff considered the decisive point and create a large positive “correlation of force” to create breakthroughs (the Germans call this approach Befehlstaktik or “command-push”).
So, yeah, it’s a tad more complicated than just firing a mass barrage and launching an infantry assault.
LOL, there's some wonderful footage on Telegram/pro-Russian twitter of the Russkies using self propelled howitzers as direct fire weapons against the Azov dudes in Mariupol.Replies: @Twinkie
One reason I've been paying attention to Ritter and Macgregor is that they'd both military experts and they're going against a 100% MSM tide, so I can't see why they'd be saying what they are unless they actually believed it. Maybe they're wrong, but I think they're probably being honest.
Exactly the same sort of thing happened in the lead-up to the Iraq War:
https://www.unz.com/runz/the-life-and-legacy-of-lt-gen-william-odom/Replies: @Twinkie, @silviosilver
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The compilers might be pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian or whatever the case may be, but the visual confirmation is pretty solid I think. So far:
Russia – 2614, of which: destroyed: 1357, damaged: 38, abandoned: 237, captured: 982
Ukraine – 701, of which: destroyed: 311, damaged: 24, abandoned: 37, captured: 329
Now, the Russians seem to have lost a lot of actual tanks and APCs/IFVs compared to what we lost in Iraq (where the overwhelming majority of losses, something like 750 out of 900-1,000, was made up of trucks and Humvees), but that makes sense given that the Ukrainians received a huge supply of ATGMs such as NLAWs and Javelins (whereas the Iraq insurgents relied on unguided RPGs and improvised explosives).
I try not to guess motives of people. I can only go by what they say and how reality lines up against that. As I warned others more than once, it’s not conducive to creating a good model of reality if you get sucked into playing our domestic politics onto foreign affairs or scientific issues. In the latter realms, the enemy of my enemy isn’t necessarily my friend. You shouldn’t let the outlandishly propagandistic nature of our MSM to lead you into believing everything the critics of the MSM say, because the latter usually have their own interests and issues that may be at odds with the truth (if not truth-telling).
Anyone who tells you that the Russians are building up Zelensky as a hero and intentionally not blocking his comm channels, so that they can do some sort of a 64-D chess and make it easier to make peace with him later is, at best, engaging in a contorted mental-gymnastics to convince himself and others or, at worst, is not being truthful.
Indeed. The MSM was shrill about how every little difficulty was a sign of an American “quagmire” (remember that word, being bandied about by everyone?). The irony is, of course, that, in the long-run, it turned out to be true (if not factual about the initial success).
I don’t have a dog in this fight. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is of little concern to me when we are having a surge of illegal immigrants on our southern border again and my own neighborhood is starting to be inundated by Indian immigrants. I am much more worried about the narco-cartelization of our Southwest and the coming immiseration of our lower and middle classes than some squabble in Eastern Europe. I also don’t see Putin as a some sort of a based savior of Western civilization (Russia has never been a part of the West) nor do I see Putin as some sort a Hitlerian villain in a Holocaust morality play.
What I am most interested in this war is acquiring “lessons learned” for my team, the United States of America in any future conflict. To the extent I take sides in this war, I am mildly pro-Ukrainian, because I don’t like invaders trying to change borders by force and damage sovereign territorial integrity. But I am also someone who opposes the extreme expansion of NATO and Western influence beyond Poland and believes that Russia should have its own sphere of influence (anyway you cut it, Russia is a major power and should be treated as such – we wouldn’t like it if a possibly hostile power started to meddle in Canada).
That doesn’t mean you should take what I write as Gospel (since I can be wrong, and I most certainly was about how the conflict started and how badly it has gone for the Russian army so far), and what I write should be rigorously verified and validated against other sources, but I don’t have ulterior motives or a hobby horse in this fight.
Odom described the Iraq War as probably the greatest strategic disaster in U.S. history, and he may well have been correct.
You're the one who knows what your position was back then, but if it had been anything other than total personal opposition, I think you should reflect on that serious lapse when considering the current Ukraine/Russia situation.Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Twinkie, @JimDandy
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Each one of these tanks, APVs, trucks, etc. would have had several crew members.
Here's some evidence:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html
I suppose you could go to Ukraine and actually count the bodies in the morgues. Or the Russians could accept back the bodies of their fallen soldiers and reunite them with their loved ones as is done by all civilized countries.
Maybe the Ukrainians are lying but it seems to be a strange kind of lie because the Russians could easily call them on it and if they didn't produce the bodies it would be a source of further friction. Also they are distinguishing between the number they claim have been killed (19,000) and the number of bodies that they are holding (7,000). If they were just liars they could claim to have 19,000 corpses.Replies: @Twinkie, @Ron Unz
Take. A. Breath. And stop your hysterics. I never wrote that over 2,000 vehicles were destroyed. I wrote:
The Russian military has lost over 2,000 vehicles so far. This figure is based on visually confirmed cases and includes destroyed, damaged and abandoned, and captured.
Very good on using Google translate. But your guess at the meaning of stari_momak isn’t really close. The implication is more like ‘old dude’, in the sense that Huge Hefner was an old dude that refused to grow up. Or maybe even ‘the Dude’ from Big Lebowski is closer.
Washed up and decrepit has zero to do with it.
Have you looked up ‘kraj’ yet?
The two battles of Fallujah were precipitated when a Blackwater convoy was ambushed in early 2004 there. Several Americans were killed, including former Navy SEAL Scott Helvenston (RIP). His body (along with another contractor's) was burnt, mutilated, and hung on a bridge. This angered us Americans enormously and also created a great deal of pressure from Washington to do something about the culprits and Fallujah.
If we have to fight a bloody urban battle, something has gone terribly wrong. You are talking out of your ass again.
Up until, and including, the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War, artillery was a direct fire weapon, meaning you could see at what you were firing. World War I was when indirect fire, utilizing trigonometry, came into widespread use. And it was also the first truly industrial war. Massive number of artillery shells were consumed. But the combatants quickly figured out that, while psychologically extremely straining (imagine someone using a jackhammer for hours outside your house or, worse, being inside an MRI machine all day), artillery began to lose effectiveness as field fortifications came into use. Worse still, lengthy artillery barrages churned up the ground making your own infantry assault slow and the barrages tipped the enemy to the axis of attack, so that he could bring up reinforcements to the so-called Swehrpunkt.
So by the end of the war, especially during the Ludendorff Offensives, the Germans came up with a new tactic. Instead of mass artillery barrage and a general infantry charge over the trenches (which turned out to be horrifically bloody for the attacker), the Germans would launch a very short, sharp artillery barrage (so as not to alert the enemy to the main axis of attack), followed by infantry infiltration teams that bypassed, rather than fighting, the strongpoints, leaving the latter to be dealt by the follow-on forces and instead concentrating on getting maximum penetration to wreak havoc on the command, control, and communication of the enemy to the rear. This, in effect, presaged their armored warfare doctrine in World War II.
Artillery, when used properly, is extremely effective. It was responsible for the plurality of men killed during World War II. But the key operating phrase there is "when used properly." Artillery is effective when 1) there is proper observation, 2) timely communication, and 3) when there is sufficient concentration of enemy.
Historically, Americans the Russians had differing approaches to the use of artillery. For the U.S. Army, with varying levels of actual implementation and success, it tried to follow what the Germans call Auftragstaktik (roughly "recon-pull") where the forward elements of the attack or reconnaissance identifies the appropriate line of advance and "pulls" resources of firepower such as artillery, air attack, and follow-on exploitation forces into the identified gap or weak points. The Soviets, on the other hand, would tend to concentrate a massive amount of artillery at what the planning and command staff considered the decisive point and create a large positive "correlation of force" to create breakthroughs (the Germans call this approach Befehlstaktik or "command-push").
So, yeah, it's a tad more complicated than just firing a mass barrage and launching an infantry assault.Replies: @stari_momak, @Jack D
“Up until, and including, the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War, artillery was a direct fire weapon, meaning you could see at what you were firing.”
LOL, there’s some wonderful footage on Telegram/pro-Russian twitter of the Russkies using self propelled howitzers as direct fire weapons against the Azov dudes in Mariupol.
The Russian military has lost over 2,000 vehicles so far. This figure is based on visually confirmed cases and includes destroyed, damaged and abandoned, and captured.Replies: @Jack D
OK, then about 1,400 destroyed. A Russian tank has a crew of 3 and and APC has a crew of 3 plus 7 passengers. Trucks can vary depending on whether they are troop trucks or what. So let’s say an average of 5 killed per destroyed vehicle. 1,400 x 5 = 7,000 which is a ballpark low estimate though the Ukrainians are claiming a much higher number. This is of course not including Russian troops killed outside of vehicles.
I am basing my rough estimate on the ratio of vehicles lost vs. KIA in the Iraq War, which is an extremely crude measure since the two wars are very different. Nonetheless, it gives one a reasonable sense. The real number, of course, could be substantially lower or much higher, but 8,000 doesn't strike me as outside the realm of possibility or, even, likelihood.
Other variables that make things worse off for the Russians is that 1) the U.S. had a complete control of the air and Russia doesn't in Ukraine, 2) Iraqi insurgents avoided attacking main U.S. combat elements and tried to engage soft vehicle convoys, and 3) Ukraine is a near-peer and has ATGMs, artillery, drones, and even now combat aircraft. I think that accounts for the relatively high number of AFVs Russians have lost.
Note that the website also mentions a large number of Ukrainians vehicle losses. Considering that the Ukrainian army is less lavishly equipped, a loss of 700 vehicles is quite substantial and must seriously degrade any ability by the Ukrainians to launch a mechanized counterattack.
Either way, the alacrity with which you jumped onto my 2,000 figure and immediately attached your wishful thinking ("destroyed!") tells me that you aren't carefully and soberly taking in the data, but are jumping on whatever seems to validate your priors.Replies: @Jack D
The two battles of Fallujah were precipitated when a Blackwater convoy was ambushed in early 2004 there. Several Americans were killed, including former Navy SEAL Scott Helvenston (RIP). His body (along with another contractor's) was burnt, mutilated, and hung on a bridge. This angered us Americans enormously and also created a great deal of pressure from Washington to do something about the culprits and Fallujah.
If we have to fight a bloody urban battle, something has gone terribly wrong. You are talking out of your ass again.
Up until, and including, the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War, artillery was a direct fire weapon, meaning you could see at what you were firing. World War I was when indirect fire, utilizing trigonometry, came into widespread use. And it was also the first truly industrial war. Massive number of artillery shells were consumed. But the combatants quickly figured out that, while psychologically extremely straining (imagine someone using a jackhammer for hours outside your house or, worse, being inside an MRI machine all day), artillery began to lose effectiveness as field fortifications came into use. Worse still, lengthy artillery barrages churned up the ground making your own infantry assault slow and the barrages tipped the enemy to the axis of attack, so that he could bring up reinforcements to the so-called Swehrpunkt.
So by the end of the war, especially during the Ludendorff Offensives, the Germans came up with a new tactic. Instead of mass artillery barrage and a general infantry charge over the trenches (which turned out to be horrifically bloody for the attacker), the Germans would launch a very short, sharp artillery barrage (so as not to alert the enemy to the main axis of attack), followed by infantry infiltration teams that bypassed, rather than fighting, the strongpoints, leaving the latter to be dealt by the follow-on forces and instead concentrating on getting maximum penetration to wreak havoc on the command, control, and communication of the enemy to the rear. This, in effect, presaged their armored warfare doctrine in World War II.
Artillery, when used properly, is extremely effective. It was responsible for the plurality of men killed during World War II. But the key operating phrase there is "when used properly." Artillery is effective when 1) there is proper observation, 2) timely communication, and 3) when there is sufficient concentration of enemy.
Historically, Americans the Russians had differing approaches to the use of artillery. For the U.S. Army, with varying levels of actual implementation and success, it tried to follow what the Germans call Auftragstaktik (roughly "recon-pull") where the forward elements of the attack or reconnaissance identifies the appropriate line of advance and "pulls" resources of firepower such as artillery, air attack, and follow-on exploitation forces into the identified gap or weak points. The Soviets, on the other hand, would tend to concentrate a massive amount of artillery at what the planning and command staff considered the decisive point and create a large positive "correlation of force" to create breakthroughs (the Germans call this approach Befehlstaktik or "command-push").
So, yeah, it's a tad more complicated than just firing a mass barrage and launching an infantry assault.Replies: @stari_momak, @Jack D
Thanks for all the detail but it doesn’t change my basic point that the Marines bombarded Fallujah immediately preceding an infantry assault to take the city the very next day while the Russian artillery barrages seem to be mainly done for the purpose of causing destruction of property because no immediate infantry assault follows in most cases.
I am using a similar coefficient, but not because “A Russian tank has a crew of 3 and an APC has a crew of 3 plus 7 passengers.” There is a lot of variability on casualties depending on how the vehicle was destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured.
I am basing my rough estimate on the ratio of vehicles lost vs. KIA in the Iraq War, which is an extremely crude measure since the two wars are very different. Nonetheless, it gives one a reasonable sense. The real number, of course, could be substantially lower or much higher, but 8,000 doesn’t strike me as outside the realm of possibility or, even, likelihood.
Other variables that make things worse off for the Russians is that 1) the U.S. had a complete control of the air and Russia doesn’t in Ukraine, 2) Iraqi insurgents avoided attacking main U.S. combat elements and tried to engage soft vehicle convoys, and 3) Ukraine is a near-peer and has ATGMs, artillery, drones, and even now combat aircraft. I think that accounts for the relatively high number of AFVs Russians have lost.
Note that the website also mentions a large number of Ukrainians vehicle losses. Considering that the Ukrainian army is less lavishly equipped, a loss of 700 vehicles is quite substantial and must seriously degrade any ability by the Ukrainians to launch a mechanized counterattack.
Either way, the alacrity with which you jumped onto my 2,000 figure and immediately attached your wishful thinking (“destroyed!”) tells me that you aren’t carefully and soberly taking in the data, but are jumping on whatever seems to validate your priors.
You don’t know that.
If you are firing arty salvos and then attack with infantry the next day, you have lost whatever the effect you are looking for from that arty support from a tactical point.
Like I wrote before, the U.S. and the Russian armies have had different approaches to artillery use historically.
And don’t just start throwing stuff on the wall to see if anything sticks to match your unwarranted speculations.
My original point in all this was to caution you that any sign of urban destruction is not an a priori evidence of intent to cause unnecessary collateral damage. Urban fighting tends to destroy… urban areas, evil intent or not.
You have to get over your ethnic hatred of Russians from generations ago.Replies: @HA
“That shift never happened. The command and control of the nuclear weapons were never in the hands of any Ukrainian.”
They weren’t in the hands of any “Russian” per se, either. They were in the hands of SOVIETS. Why do you conveniently keep forgetting that? They were likewise guarded and maintained and looked after by police and military and technicians and a whole supporting cast of characters whose loyalties with respect to Soviet/Russian/Ukrainian/undecided/confused was murky at that point. You can continue to insist otherwise, but evidently, no one outside your fanboy bubble really cared what the likes of you thought; not then, and not now.
On the contrary, the US decided to help negotiate an agreement that put any of that ambiguity to rest. Thereby turning what could have been, in the parlance of the day a “Yugoslavia with nukes” (I think that “stari momak” fellow might furrow his aged brow on reading that, if Google-translate identified him correctly) into a peaceful transfer of power that worked just fine until Putin decided he had to have more and trashed it.
Again, for better or worse, people who actually knew what they were talking about decided to ignore the likes of you, and those who continue then as now to insist that “Russia gets it all” and decided instead that all this was better negotiated in writing, with some quid pro quo assurances thrown in.
So, go ahead and rage against your implicit irrelevance however you like, it won’t change a thing. There’s an actual document I can point to — you’ve got nothing but evidence-free bluster.
“You have to get over your ethnic hatred of Russians from generations ago.”
You know absolutely zip about my ethnic background (i.e. apparently a lot less than you think you do). Maybe it’s your own ethnic vendettas you should address first? Moreover, let go of that creepy Putin-boosting, and your bizarre conviction that “Soviet” is identical to “Russian” (if only by way of who gets to claim what). If you’re what passes for a defender of Russians, they have little need of enemies (though your boy Putin keeps finding ways to make even more).
LOL, there's some wonderful footage on Telegram/pro-Russian twitter of the Russkies using self propelled howitzers as direct fire weapons against the Azov dudes in Mariupol.Replies: @Twinkie
During World War II, it was common for both the Germans and the Russians to use a vehicle class known as “assault gun.” They were basically armored self-propelled gun platforms that were used to provide direct fire support. They were also used in city fighting to reduce strongpoints.
In this day in age, this is not a good idea in general. Artillery is proverbially a “glass cannon” type of a weapon and are extremely vulnerable to everything including counter-battery fire. That’s why all modern artillery “fires and scoots.” Your target can also do trigonometry!
Since accurate long-distance artillery fire that falls from the sky is eminently achievable these days, there is little reason to risk artillery at the forward edge of battle.
Anyhoo there's more vids of Russian arty de-nationalizing Azov on telegram, both MLRS arty and howitzers. Sing it with me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=359I0x3lInkReplies: @Jack D
Washed up and decrepit has zero to do with it.
Have you looked up 'kraj' yet?Replies: @HA
“in the sense that Huge Hefner was an old dude that refused to grow up.”
Hugh Hefner? That’s how you see yourself? All the more reason for me to stick with “washed up and decrepit”, though if you insist, I can tack on “delusional and creepy” (and of course, “refuses to grow up” — I have no problem believing that one).
As for “kraj”, maybe you should stick with all the fanboys who keep calling it “THE Ukraine” in an effort to belittle it. That’s lame, too, but not as lame as where you’re going. On the contrary, if you think Borderlander is any more of a putdown than, say, Netherlander or Highlander or Icelander, you’re working on the opposite side of the PR fence than the one you think you’re on. All those sound equally awesome and snazzy to me.
I get it. You don’t want to be seen to agree with me even under any circumstances even if I agree with you. I understand.
I don’t know how many hours the Marines waited. I assume they did the barrage at night and started the assault at dawn or maybe vice versa. Midnight was in between so it goes down in history as the next day.
You write shallow things like "Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique," because you think that makes you sound knowledgeable about war. That's like some casual boxing fan saying "You really should throw a jab before a right cross" to a real boxer like it's some sort of a profound boxing insight (and, yes, that will get you killed against a professional boxer - even a jab has to be set up correctly).
As fight fans often say, "there are levels to this game," and your level is one up from a village idiot.
I repeat again: stop talking out of your ass. I can tell you know little about this subject.Replies: @Jack D
I am basing my rough estimate on the ratio of vehicles lost vs. KIA in the Iraq War, which is an extremely crude measure since the two wars are very different. Nonetheless, it gives one a reasonable sense. The real number, of course, could be substantially lower or much higher, but 8,000 doesn't strike me as outside the realm of possibility or, even, likelihood.
Other variables that make things worse off for the Russians is that 1) the U.S. had a complete control of the air and Russia doesn't in Ukraine, 2) Iraqi insurgents avoided attacking main U.S. combat elements and tried to engage soft vehicle convoys, and 3) Ukraine is a near-peer and has ATGMs, artillery, drones, and even now combat aircraft. I think that accounts for the relatively high number of AFVs Russians have lost.
Note that the website also mentions a large number of Ukrainians vehicle losses. Considering that the Ukrainian army is less lavishly equipped, a loss of 700 vehicles is quite substantial and must seriously degrade any ability by the Ukrainians to launch a mechanized counterattack.
Either way, the alacrity with which you jumped onto my 2,000 figure and immediately attached your wishful thinking ("destroyed!") tells me that you aren't carefully and soberly taking in the data, but are jumping on whatever seems to validate your priors.Replies: @Jack D
Compare the number of Ukrainian losses with captures of Russian vehicles and they are about even. Maybe ahead because some of the captured Russian stuff is newer / better than what they had before.
Compare the respective fractions of the captured vehicles (to the total lost by each side) between the Russians and the Ukrainians. What does that tell you?Replies: @Jack D
Is this part where you try to pretend that providing support in the way we are is an indisputable "declaration of war" that forces us to send soldiers to Ukraine, or somesuch? Even though you know it's not and the answer to your question is no? Is that what your troll outfit advises you is the meme of the moment?
Obviously, Moscow Gollum can claim that anyone who even looks at him funny is declaring war on Russia. Given that you're beholden to him, I know that you'll agree, but that doesn't make it true. And if he gets another bad injection of steroids, or a bad reaction to his chemo, he can claim that even Sarah Palin's house, from where she admits to "spying" on Russia, is itself a provocation that amounts to a declaration of war. Again, it doesn't mean any of that is true, or that Alaskans have to henceforth make sure their houses have no Western-facing windows, but I realize that won't stop you and the other fanboys from trying to claim that, actually, he's really being quite reasonable when you think about it, and we should therefore find a "compromise" that basically gives him whatever stupid thing he asks for, or at least half of it, and sets him up to run the same scam to get the remaining half whenever he decides anything else we do is a provocation. All in the interest of "peace", of course. I mean, we don't want to risk a nuclear war, do we?
Is that the gist? If so, I'm not falling for it. I don't care how "humiliated" or "hurt" Russia feels by sanctions, or by the weapons we're sending to Ukrainians, or by getting kicked out of this group or next, it doesn't amount to a declaration of war on our end. If you're no longer confident that Russia and its many troll contingents will see it that way on their end, then take that up with them.Replies: @PhysicistDave
My pal HA wrote to me:
Well, as you know, I actually am Vladimir Putin and I have nothing better to do with my time than talk to you!
Sarcasm aside, I am merely trying to find out what you meant by the following statement to Mike Tre:
I.e., what obligation do yo think “we made the first time around”?
I am not aware of any such obligations.
Are you?
And, do you agree with Zelensky that nothing we can give Ukraine is going to make much difference unless we impose a no-fly zone? So, do you want us to impose a no-fly zone and start shooting down Russian planes?
HA also wrote:
Well, I don’t care either. I frankly doubt that Putin cares — the West seems unable to stop his military operation, and I think that is all he cares about.
I, on the other hand, do care about the civilians who are being killed, and the only way I see to stop that is a negotiated peace. Do you have a better idea?
The Kiev thugs have openly admitted that they will lose to Russia unless the West militarily intervenes -- such as by "closing the sky." And the West won't.
So, eventually Kiev will sue for peace.
The only question is how many Ukrainian citizens will have to die before the regime folds.
The earlier they sue for peace, the better the deal they will get. Before the invasion, Putin said he would settle for an independent Donbass, a neutral rump Ukraine, and Crimea as part of Russia.
Perhaps he will still accept that.
But as Russia annihilates the Kievan military forces, Putin will recognize that he can get more -- at least the whole Black Sea coast, including Odessa.
A negotiated peace is not fantasy -- it is what will end up being reality.
But the longer the Kiev puppet regime puts off making peace, the harsher it will be.
I don't care what happens to Penis-Piano-Player Zelensky and his fellow thugs.
But I would like to see an end to the deaths of Ukrainian civilians.
The killing must stop.
And it will only stop with a negotiated peace that both parties accept.Replies: @James B. Shearer
“A negotiated peace is not fantasy ..”
It is currently a fantasy because the warring parties both consider the terms they could obtain to be worse than continuing to fight.
Agreed?
My guess is that Putin will have to wipe out the neo-Nazi forces in the Donbass before Kiev will see the light and sue for a realistic negotiated peace.
See this USA Today article for an admission by members of the Azov Battalion themselves that their members are between 10 % and 50 % Nazis.
I wish this were not true. But I think Putin and the Russian people view it as a matter of honor to wipe out the Nazis in the Donbass.
Yes, they mark the spot where U.S. Government aid officially begins.
One of my co-workers in Palo Alto tried to convince me that Menlo Park, next door to Palo Alto, was heaven on earth.
I am afraid that I made fun of him.
La Jolla was much more pleasant -- both summer and winter.
The Bay Area fog is a pain in more ways than one.Replies: @Pat Kittle
You’re right — Northern California’s coastal fog is an abomination, and even worse is the vastly-overrated redwood forest it makes possible. If I wasn’t a masochist I’d leave.
Don’t even think of moving to this cold damp god-forsaken wasteland.
The compilers might be pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian or whatever the case may be, but the visual confirmation is pretty solid I think. So far:
Russia - 2614, of which: destroyed: 1357, damaged: 38, abandoned: 237, captured: 982
Ukraine - 701, of which: destroyed: 311, damaged: 24, abandoned: 37, captured: 329
Now, the Russians seem to have lost a lot of actual tanks and APCs/IFVs compared to what we lost in Iraq (where the overwhelming majority of losses, something like 750 out of 900-1,000, was made up of trucks and Humvees), but that makes sense given that the Ukrainians received a huge supply of ATGMs such as NLAWs and Javelins (whereas the Iraq insurgents relied on unguided RPGs and improvised explosives). I try not to guess motives of people. I can only go by what they say and how reality lines up against that. As I warned others more than once, it's not conducive to creating a good model of reality if you get sucked into playing our domestic politics onto foreign affairs or scientific issues. In the latter realms, the enemy of my enemy isn't necessarily my friend. You shouldn't let the outlandishly propagandistic nature of our MSM to lead you into believing everything the critics of the MSM say, because the latter usually have their own interests and issues that may be at odds with the truth (if not truth-telling).
Anyone who tells you that the Russians are building up Zelensky as a hero and intentionally not blocking his comm channels, so that they can do some sort of a 64-D chess and make it easier to make peace with him later is, at best, engaging in a contorted mental-gymnastics to convince himself and others or, at worst, is not being truthful. Indeed. The MSM was shrill about how every little difficulty was a sign of an American "quagmire" (remember that word, being bandied about by everyone?). The irony is, of course, that, in the long-run, it turned out to be true (if not factual about the initial success).
I don't have a dog in this fight. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is of little concern to me when we are having a surge of illegal immigrants on our southern border again and my own neighborhood is starting to be inundated by Indian immigrants. I am much more worried about the narco-cartelization of our Southwest and the coming immiseration of our lower and middle classes than some squabble in Eastern Europe. I also don't see Putin as a some sort of a based savior of Western civilization (Russia has never been a part of the West) nor do I see Putin as some sort a Hitlerian villain in a Holocaust morality play.
What I am most interested in this war is acquiring "lessons learned" for my team, the United States of America in any future conflict. To the extent I take sides in this war, I am mildly pro-Ukrainian, because I don't like invaders trying to change borders by force and damage sovereign territorial integrity. But I am also someone who opposes the extreme expansion of NATO and Western influence beyond Poland and believes that Russia should have its own sphere of influence (anyway you cut it, Russia is a major power and should be treated as such - we wouldn't like it if a possibly hostile power started to meddle in Canada).
That doesn't mean you should take what I write as Gospel (since I can be wrong, and I most certainly was about how the conflict started and how badly it has gone for the Russian army so far), and what I write should be rigorously verified and validated against other sources, but I don't have ulterior motives or a hobby horse in this fight.Replies: @Ron Unz
Well, maybe, but I’m suspicious. With 3,300 different vehicles allegedly destroyed or damaged, couldn’t there be huge numbers of fakes or duplicates mixed in, with nobody being the wiser? Even if the website compilers are honest and legitimate rather than bribed, wouldn’t Intelligence agencies specialize in providing them with faked Tweets to boost the score? Isn’t that the easiest and most obvious thing for the CIA or MI6 or anyone to do? In fact, I’d say if they’re not trying to do that they don’t deserve their big budgets. After all, there’s a gigantic international propaganda war going on right now.
I do hope I’m misunderstanding you since you seem to be suggesting that the American MSM was against the Iraq War when instead it was absolutely 100% supportive, just as bad as today’s MSM on Ukraine. I can’t remember whether you were an Iraq War supporter at the time though you were involved there in a military role, but that really shouldn’t color your recollection of the MSM landscape, which was totally controlled by the same sort of Neocons who are controlling it today. Here’s a couple of paragraphs from one of my articles:
https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-great-purge-of-the-1940s/
Odom described the Iraq War as probably the greatest strategic disaster in U.S. history, and he may well have been correct.
You’re the one who knows what your position was back then, but if it had been anything other than total personal opposition, I think you should reflect on that serious lapse when considering the current Ukraine/Russia situation.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/clint-eastwoods-american-sniper/Replies: @Twinkie
And, yes, I regret that support for that war very deeply (not that any of that mattered in the larger scheme of things). But understand that error came from the shock of having my home city attacked and the massive loss of American lives. I lost my mind.
As I wrote before, I am not personally invested or involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War. I can be much more object about it (not to forget the fact that I am older and wiser, and much more experienced than my old self). Moreover, a person can be wrong about something and can be right about something else and vice versa. You shouldn't trust the judgment of someone (i.e. Ritter) on everything just because you share the same view on something else. You shouldn't dismiss someone's analysis, because he was wrong about something in the past. Evaluate each subject on its own.
"I trust this guy, because he is totally anti-MSM" is a recipe for you getting conned by someone, just not the MSM.
And this wasn't addressed to me, but I think I ought to reply, because it's just too crazy: If you mean that literally, you are an insane, delusional monster (would you volunteer to shoot the women and children or are you going to ask someone else to do the dirty deed?), and I would have to re-evaluate my admiration of, and appreciation for, your dedication to free speech and fostering of unpopular and contrary opinions.
I hope you are being hyperbolic (for I do share your utter contempt for these "Neocons").Replies: @Ron Unz
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Each one of these tanks, APVs, trucks, etc. would have had several crew members.
Here's some evidence:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html
I suppose you could go to Ukraine and actually count the bodies in the morgues. Or the Russians could accept back the bodies of their fallen soldiers and reunite them with their loved ones as is done by all civilized countries.
Maybe the Ukrainians are lying but it seems to be a strange kind of lie because the Russians could easily call them on it and if they didn't produce the bodies it would be a source of further friction. Also they are distinguishing between the number they claim have been killed (19,000) and the number of bodies that they are holding (7,000). If they were just liars they could claim to have 19,000 corpses.Replies: @Twinkie, @Ron Unz
You seem exactly like all those shrieking Jewish Neocons in the run-up to the totally disastrous Iraq War, which cost American many trillions of dollars and destroyed much of the Middle East. But now you and your crazy friends are focused upon provoking a hot war with nuclear-armed Russia, which is considerably more serious.
For twenty years I’ve been saying that if we’d simply rounded up and summarily butchered all the Neocons together with their wives and children, we’d have a lot more peace and quiet in America. But nobody took my sensible advice, so here we are now…
Of course, we know you're kidding, but you're also not wrong. And it's probably why they do this sort of thing in primitive societies and the old days. It's barbaric, but effective.
Sarcasm aside, I am merely trying to find out what you meant by the following statement to Mike Tre: I.e., what obligation do yo think "we made the first time around"?
I am not aware of any such obligations.
Are you?
And, do you agree with Zelensky that nothing we can give Ukraine is going to make much difference unless we impose a no-fly zone? So, do you want us to impose a no-fly zone and start shooting down Russian planes?
HA also wrote: Well, I don't care either. I frankly doubt that Putin cares -- the West seems unable to stop his military operation, and I think that is all he cares about.
I, on the other hand, do care about the civilians who are being killed, and the only way I see to stop that is a negotiated peace. Do you have a better idea?Replies: @HA
“I am not aware of any such obligations. Are you?”
Sorry, PhysicistDave. I’ve answered these questions too many times. Either look them up in my comment history, or don’t; either way works for me. You could also broaden your reading beyond your current range of RT.com claptrap — I think that’d help. And if I found your faux-avuncular tone to be less creepy, or your comments less boring, it might be worth the effort to hash all that through again, but as it is, I’ll just pass. At this point, I get the sense that even other fanboys have started to fast forward through some of your drivel. You’re approaching Sean-like levels of inanity.
I will say that I’d certainly have nothing against a no-fly zone, but that’s above my pay grade. If Putin keeps upping the carnage, well, we’ll see how “off the table” that proves to be. In general, I have no reason to doubt that Putin will just keep killing until he gets everything he wants. If your “prediction” or at least “hope” that he would limit himself to securing his little mafia puppet statelets had been any more accurate than your other bogus assurances regarding Russia — as opposed to being more of the same empty RT.com propaganda — then perhaps there’d be another way to stall him, but as it is, he has surpassed even your bloodthirsty projections.
Right now, the only thing stopping him is the pressure and the weaponry we put in his way. I’ll let the legal experts argue over what of that is in our interest and/or rightfully due given the assurances we gave Ukraine. I’m not really interested in your take on the matter, but again, if that wasn’t enough to answer your questions, feel free to slog through my comments to your heart’s delight. Or don’t. Either way is OK with me.
HA also wrote to me: It's not stopping him, HA, it is only dragging out the war and increasing the number of dead Ukrainians.
After all, your goal is for the Ukrainians to fight to the death of the last Ukrainian man, woman, and child rather than do the honorable thing of suing for peace. And of course while you call for dragging the war out indefinitely, you would never consider actually volunteering to fight and put your own precious skin on the line, would you?
HA also wrote to me: Oh, old pal, no one actually cares about your opinion on anything! We just use your comments as an excuse to shed some more light on the idiocies accepted by so many of the sheep in the West.
https://youtu.be/oR-yS6kULXw?t=883Replies: @HA
Odom described the Iraq War as probably the greatest strategic disaster in U.S. history, and he may well have been correct.
You're the one who knows what your position was back then, but if it had been anything other than total personal opposition, I think you should reflect on that serious lapse when considering the current Ukraine/Russia situation.Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Twinkie, @JimDandy
From what I recall, you and him had a discussion about the Iraq War back in 2015.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/clint-eastwoods-american-sniper/
I've been on this site too long!
Stop playing word games – all you are doing is sophistry. You don’t even really understand what I am saying to be agreeing with me. I certainly don’t agree with you.
You write shallow things like “Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique,” because you think that makes you sound knowledgeable about war. That’s like some casual boxing fan saying “You really should throw a jab before a right cross” to a real boxer like it’s some sort of a profound boxing insight (and, yes, that will get you killed against a professional boxer – even a jab has to be set up correctly).
As fight fans often say, “there are levels to this game,” and your level is one up from a village idiot.
I repeat again: stop talking out of your ass. I can tell you know little about this subject.
I cheerfully admit that I am not an armchair general and have no knowledge or interest in the fine points of battle (or boxing) tactics, nor do I pretend to.
You missed something that is somewhat interesting to me and possibly notable.
Compare the respective fractions of the captured vehicles (to the total lost by each side) between the Russians and the Ukrainians. What does that tell you?
For example, in tanks, Oryx gives the Russian losses as
476, of which destroyed: 236, damaged: 8, abandoned: 40, captured: 192
and the Ukrainian as:
103, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 1, abandoned: 9, captured: 51
So the Ukrainians have lost, one way or another 103 tanks and have capture 192 Russian tanks in working order so they are 89 tanks ahead of when the war started. And 40% of Russian losses were captured vs 50% of Ukrainian - what can we infer from this slight difference?Replies: @Twinkie
Odom described the Iraq War as probably the greatest strategic disaster in U.S. history, and he may well have been correct.
You're the one who knows what your position was back then, but if it had been anything other than total personal opposition, I think you should reflect on that serious lapse when considering the current Ukraine/Russia situation.Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Twinkie, @JimDandy
You didn’t appear all that suspicious of Scott Ritter’s claims, some of which are false. I am fine with suspicious, but you should be equally suspicious of all sides.
Ok. That’s possible. Have you see any evidence of that? And what’s the evidence for the proposition that the Russian casualty is under 2,000 KIA per the Russian government?
You might have talked to General Odom about this, but the intelligence community (at least the CIA, let’s set aside the NSA which has massive computing power, i.e. signal-processing capability, at its disposal) isn’t that thorough or ingenious. Much of it is made up of risk-averse and careerist bureaucrats.
The prevailing sentiment in the media and the whole country was highly supportive of the war, but there were also repeated reporting of “quagmire” every time there was some difficulty even early on.
Prior to 9/11, I was a non-interventionist (or more accurately a minimal-interventionist). But 9/11 – even though I expected some sort of a large-scale terrorist attack in the U.S. prior to that – was a deep personal shock to me and I supported the invasion of Iraq (but my idea of an intervention was a rapid toppling of the Ba’athist regime, followed by the installation of a puppet dictatorship friendly to the U.S. and GTFO – I wasn’t into nation-building and bringing democracy to Iraq with the Iraqis kicking and screaming).
And, yes, I regret that support for that war very deeply (not that any of that mattered in the larger scheme of things). But understand that error came from the shock of having my home city attacked and the massive loss of American lives. I lost my mind.
As I wrote before, I am not personally invested or involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War. I can be much more object about it (not to forget the fact that I am older and wiser, and much more experienced than my old self). Moreover, a person can be wrong about something and can be right about something else and vice versa. You shouldn’t trust the judgment of someone (i.e. Ritter) on everything just because you share the same view on something else. You shouldn’t dismiss someone’s analysis, because he was wrong about something in the past. Evaluate each subject on its own.
“I trust this guy, because he is totally anti-MSM” is a recipe for you getting conned by someone, just not the MSM.
And this wasn’t addressed to me, but I think I ought to reply, because it’s just too crazy:
If you mean that literally, you are an insane, delusional monster (would you volunteer to shoot the women and children or are you going to ask someone else to do the dirty deed?), and I would have to re-evaluate my admiration of, and appreciation for, your dedication to free speech and fostering of unpopular and contrary opinions.
I hope you are being hyperbolic (for I do share your utter contempt for these “Neocons”).
The pro-Russia people suggest that the Russian KIAs have been minimized by excluding any Donbas militia losses, Wagner-type mercenaries, etc. so they guess 2,500 is more likely. Meanwhile, the other side claims 7,000-14,000 dead, which seems totally crazy to me given the overwhelming Russian advantages in force and hardware. Some of the MSM stories claim the Russians are using "mobile crematoria" to make their bodies disappear and that also seems ridiculous.
So the Russian side seems much more plausible. So you agree that the MSM was 100% pro-Iraq War but eventually began warning of a possible "quagmire." Since the end result was a gigantic quagmire, isn't that a sign of reality gradually seeping into Neocon-controlled propaganda? You're someone with a strong academic background who later became heavily involved in military matters, including the Iraq War. Having been so personally involved it's obviously much more psychologically difficult for you to fully admit to yourself that you'd actually been tricked and manipulated from the very beginning. You're also someone from a rightwing, ultra-patriotic immigrant background, which leaves you especially vulnerable to particular types of such manipulation.
However, I do find it extraordinary that you've been actively participating in this website for many years now, and yet seem completely unaware of the likely true facts behind the 9/11 attacks, in which as you say your own home city was attacked causing you to "lose your mind." Under those circumstances, it's probably worth considering who actually attacked your city.
For obvious reasons, there are very practical factors that may lead someone to avoid recognizing certain harsh realities, which might severely disrupt one's day-to-day activities. But if you haven't already done so, you really should take a look at my recent article on those events that so reshaped your worldview twenty years ago:
https://www.unz.com/runz/seeking-9-11-truth-after-twenty-years/
Indeed, I think much of my entire American Pravda series on the last 100 years of world history would be worth close examination as well:
https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/
https://www.unz.com/page/world-war-ii-articles/
Given your strong academic background in (I think) history, you could certainly evaluate the credibility of the historical material I present much more effectively than most casual readers.
I've emphasized my lack of expertise in military matters, but very little of my work relies upon that. Some very high-ranking mainstream academic scholars have privately told me they are very impressed with my analysis.Replies: @Jack D, @Twinkie
Odom described the Iraq War as probably the greatest strategic disaster in U.S. history, and he may well have been correct.
You're the one who knows what your position was back then, but if it had been anything other than total personal opposition, I think you should reflect on that serious lapse when considering the current Ukraine/Russia situation.Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Twinkie, @JimDandy
All brutally excellent points, Ron, but credit where credit is due–could Twinkie have picked a more apt nickname?
https://www.unz.com/isteve/clint-eastwoods-american-sniper/Replies: @Twinkie
Wow. Thanks. Completely forgot about that “conversation.” Has it been 7 years already?
I’ve been on this site too long!
It is currently a fantasy because the warring parties both consider the terms they could obtain to be worse than continuing to fight.Replies: @PhysicistDave
James B. Shearer wrote to me:
Okay, let’s state this precisely: a negotiated peace in the nest 24 hours is probably a fantasy; a negotiated peace in the long term is almost a certainty.
Agreed?
My guess is that Putin will have to wipe out the neo-Nazi forces in the Donbass before Kiev will see the light and sue for a realistic negotiated peace.
See this USA Today article for an admission by members of the Azov Battalion themselves that their members are between 10 % and 50 % Nazis.
I wish this were not true. But I think Putin and the Russian people view it as a matter of honor to wipe out the Nazis in the Donbass.
My pal HA wrote to me:
You do know that that would mean WW III, right?
HA also wrote to me:
It’s not stopping him, HA, it is only dragging out the war and increasing the number of dead Ukrainians.
After all, your goal is for the Ukrainians to fight to the death of the last Ukrainian man, woman, and child rather than do the honorable thing of suing for peace. And of course while you call for dragging the war out indefinitely, you would never consider actually volunteering to fight and put your own precious skin on the line, would you?
HA also wrote to me:
Oh, old pal, no one actually cares about your opinion on anything! We just use your comments as an excuse to shed some more light on the idiocies accepted by so many of the sheep in the West.
I’m not a war nerd so I just know what I have read recently. Apparently the Russians used this ‘assault gun’ tactic in Syria to great effect, or at least so I read.
Anyhoo there’s more vids of Russian arty de-nationalizing Azov on telegram, both MLRS arty and howitzers. Sing it with me.
Aside from the fact that his favor tactics involves war crimes, what worked against a rag tag bunch of poorly armed rebels in Syria may not work the same against people with the same level of military prowess and who are backed by Western arms shipments. Every time the Russians bomb a crowded passenger train station or such, the level of arms shipments from Europe goes up some more.
Which is to eliminate what he sees as an existential threat to Russia. No of course he want stop, he can’t because to stop is to be destroyed, he thinks.
Paul suffered broken ribs in the attack by the MD anesthesiologist
Don’t you mean in his back yard?
You write shallow things like "Softening up the enemy by preceding an infantry assault with an artillery barrage is a time tested technique," because you think that makes you sound knowledgeable about war. That's like some casual boxing fan saying "You really should throw a jab before a right cross" to a real boxer like it's some sort of a profound boxing insight (and, yes, that will get you killed against a professional boxer - even a jab has to be set up correctly).
As fight fans often say, "there are levels to this game," and your level is one up from a village idiot.
I repeat again: stop talking out of your ass. I can tell you know little about this subject.Replies: @Jack D
Like a boxer you like to duck and weave. My fundamental point is that an artillery barrage, as you admit, should be followed by an immediate assault if it is to have any military effect. The Russians are doing the barrage part but not the assaults because they are just using the barrages to punish the civilian population.
I cheerfully admit that I am not an armchair general and have no knowledge or interest in the fine points of battle (or boxing) tactics, nor do I pretend to.
Anyhoo there's more vids of Russian arty de-nationalizing Azov on telegram, both MLRS arty and howitzers. Sing it with me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=359I0x3lInkReplies: @Jack D
Putin has just appointed the general that was in charge of Syria to run the Ukraine war (switching generals is a sure sign that a war isn’t going well).
Aside from the fact that his favor tactics involves war crimes, what worked against a rag tag bunch of poorly armed rebels in Syria may not work the same against people with the same level of military prowess and who are backed by Western arms shipments. Every time the Russians bomb a crowded passenger train station or such, the level of arms shipments from Europe goes up some more.
And, yes, I regret that support for that war very deeply (not that any of that mattered in the larger scheme of things). But understand that error came from the shock of having my home city attacked and the massive loss of American lives. I lost my mind.
As I wrote before, I am not personally invested or involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War. I can be much more object about it (not to forget the fact that I am older and wiser, and much more experienced than my old self). Moreover, a person can be wrong about something and can be right about something else and vice versa. You shouldn't trust the judgment of someone (i.e. Ritter) on everything just because you share the same view on something else. You shouldn't dismiss someone's analysis, because he was wrong about something in the past. Evaluate each subject on its own.
"I trust this guy, because he is totally anti-MSM" is a recipe for you getting conned by someone, just not the MSM.
And this wasn't addressed to me, but I think I ought to reply, because it's just too crazy: If you mean that literally, you are an insane, delusional monster (would you volunteer to shoot the women and children or are you going to ask someone else to do the dirty deed?), and I would have to re-evaluate my admiration of, and appreciation for, your dedication to free speech and fostering of unpopular and contrary opinions.
I hope you are being hyperbolic (for I do share your utter contempt for these "Neocons").Replies: @Ron Unz
Well, he certainly might be mistaken about various things, but I do think he’s being honest, which is different than obviously fabricating information for propaganda purposes.
I simply have no idea, and I’m skeptical that anyone else does either, especially if based upon an apparent “open source” website replying upon Tweets showing destroyed vehicles. If MI6 can’t produce fake Tweets, they shouldn’t be in business. America/NATO is the unchallenged global hyperpower in media and propaganda, and that obviously has to be taken into account when determining reality. It’s like operating on an extremely tilted floor that requires careful constant mental correction.
The pro-Russia people suggest that the Russian KIAs have been minimized by excluding any Donbas militia losses, Wagner-type mercenaries, etc. so they guess 2,500 is more likely. Meanwhile, the other side claims 7,000-14,000 dead, which seems totally crazy to me given the overwhelming Russian advantages in force and hardware. Some of the MSM stories claim the Russians are using “mobile crematoria” to make their bodies disappear and that also seems ridiculous.
So the Russian side seems much more plausible.
So you agree that the MSM was 100% pro-Iraq War but eventually began warning of a possible “quagmire.” Since the end result was a gigantic quagmire, isn’t that a sign of reality gradually seeping into Neocon-controlled propaganda?
You’re someone with a strong academic background who later became heavily involved in military matters, including the Iraq War. Having been so personally involved it’s obviously much more psychologically difficult for you to fully admit to yourself that you’d actually been tricked and manipulated from the very beginning. You’re also someone from a rightwing, ultra-patriotic immigrant background, which leaves you especially vulnerable to particular types of such manipulation.
However, I do find it extraordinary that you’ve been actively participating in this website for many years now, and yet seem completely unaware of the likely true facts behind the 9/11 attacks, in which as you say your own home city was attacked causing you to “lose your mind.” Under those circumstances, it’s probably worth considering who actually attacked your city.
For obvious reasons, there are very practical factors that may lead someone to avoid recognizing certain harsh realities, which might severely disrupt one’s day-to-day activities. But if you haven’t already done so, you really should take a look at my recent article on those events that so reshaped your worldview twenty years ago:
https://www.unz.com/runz/seeking-9-11-truth-after-twenty-years/
Indeed, I think much of my entire American Pravda series on the last 100 years of world history would be worth close examination as well:
https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/
https://www.unz.com/page/world-war-ii-articles/
Given your strong academic background in (I think) history, you could certainly evaluate the credibility of the historical material I present much more effectively than most casual readers.
I’ve emphasized my lack of expertise in military matters, but very little of my work relies upon that. Some very high-ranking mainstream academic scholars have privately told me they are very impressed with my analysis.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-accused-mobile-crematoriums-incinerate-civilians-mariupol/story?id=83932376
Thus far in this war, it has not paid to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt. Whatever you imagine they have done, the reality usually turns out to be even worse.
The mistake that you are making is assuming that just because our government lies therefore means that the Russians are telling the truth.Replies: @Twinkie, @Ron Unz
Moreover, open source analyses are very transparent about their methodology. Take my crude estimate of 8,000 Russian KIA. It's based on a compilation of Russian and Ukrainian vehicle losses (in turn based on visual confirmations) and comparing the loss rate to that suffered by the U.S. in the Iraq War. Is this a perfect or even an accurate methodology? Probably not, but it's better than those based on "feelz" and are based on concrete, material evidences. You can certainly argue about the quality of those evidences or the rigor of the methodology, but that's a different argumentation altogether than debating conflicting "feelz." Now explain to me the underlying data and the methodology that led to this 2,500 number. What happened to your earlier assessment that Ukraine has "an enormous and well-trained" military?
I see you suffer from the same inexperience and lack of knowledge as Anatoly Karlin and think war is bean-counting. In war, intangibles such as training level, morale, and cohesion matter a great deal as well other non-quantifiable factors such as doctrine, strategy, and operational/tactical proficiency. 8,000 Russian KIA seems relatively credible to me, because we have - in open sources - recorded video footages of Russian vehicle convoys reacting poorly to ambushes, e.g. just trying to boogie out of the kill zone in panic, instead of having infantry rapidly dismount, establish fire superiority, maneuver and kill the ambushers (something our Army mechanized infantry and Marines excel at, after years of training and live combat in Iraq and Afghanistan). I should point out, parenthetically, that the more recent videos shows the Russian mounted infantry reacting much better than earlier footages - so the Russians are clearly learning and adjusting (which is par for the course, since war is a mutually-learning and -imitating activity).
There are other factors that lend credence to the estimate such as the fact that the Ukrainians seem well-trained and -motivated and set up good ambushes with their hunter-kill teams. Confronting AFVs as infantrymen - even with the next generation ATGMs - takes a lot of skill and daring, and, again, we have open source video footages of the Ukrainian forces doing it well (completely contrary to my earlier expectation at the beginning of the war - I earlier held the Ukrainian military in low regard).
And let's not forget the fact that the Ukrainians are on defense and fighting on their own grounds. In urban and suburban areas, as opposed to open field battles, that's going to confer even greater advantage to the defenders. I know you are into conspiracies, but much of evil in this world is a result of plain greed, ambition, self-delusion, and incompetence (often bureaucratic incompetence) rather than some machination of an inner cabal. Intelligence agencies are typically very stolid, gray, and risk-averse bureaucracies (especially on the analytic side; there are people who are into hairbrained schemes on the paramilitary side). On top of that, they are not omnipotent and have significant bureaucratic manpower resource issues. They don't have the wherewithal to be creating a large number of false tweets in the hope that some obscure website would use it to create a distorted image of the respective casualty levels. If anything, the likes of CIA and MI6 are probably pretty embarrassed right now (internally) that some open source site seems to have a better grasp of what's going on than their analytic sides do (or at least arrive as similar estimate much cheaper). Ever hear "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"?
With all due respect, the rest of your comment is ad hominem, attempt at internet armchair psycho-analysis, handwaving, diversion to unrelated topics, and has nothing to do with arriving at a good estimate for Russian KIA in this conflict.
You asked me what I thought was a good estimate. I gave you my crude estimate and my source and methodology. It's, of course, up to you believe whether this is better or worse than either the Russian or the Ukrainian claims. But please don't engage in contorted Scott Ritter-level mental gymnastics, complete with attacks on my "psyche" to tell me why your "feelz" is better than what I presented. It's quite insulting when all I have done is to engage in an earnest conversation out of respect for you and your platform.Replies: @Ron Unz
The pro-Russia people suggest that the Russian KIAs have been minimized by excluding any Donbas militia losses, Wagner-type mercenaries, etc. so they guess 2,500 is more likely. Meanwhile, the other side claims 7,000-14,000 dead, which seems totally crazy to me given the overwhelming Russian advantages in force and hardware. Some of the MSM stories claim the Russians are using "mobile crematoria" to make their bodies disappear and that also seems ridiculous.
So the Russian side seems much more plausible. So you agree that the MSM was 100% pro-Iraq War but eventually began warning of a possible "quagmire." Since the end result was a gigantic quagmire, isn't that a sign of reality gradually seeping into Neocon-controlled propaganda? You're someone with a strong academic background who later became heavily involved in military matters, including the Iraq War. Having been so personally involved it's obviously much more psychologically difficult for you to fully admit to yourself that you'd actually been tricked and manipulated from the very beginning. You're also someone from a rightwing, ultra-patriotic immigrant background, which leaves you especially vulnerable to particular types of such manipulation.
However, I do find it extraordinary that you've been actively participating in this website for many years now, and yet seem completely unaware of the likely true facts behind the 9/11 attacks, in which as you say your own home city was attacked causing you to "lose your mind." Under those circumstances, it's probably worth considering who actually attacked your city.
For obvious reasons, there are very practical factors that may lead someone to avoid recognizing certain harsh realities, which might severely disrupt one's day-to-day activities. But if you haven't already done so, you really should take a look at my recent article on those events that so reshaped your worldview twenty years ago:
https://www.unz.com/runz/seeking-9-11-truth-after-twenty-years/
Indeed, I think much of my entire American Pravda series on the last 100 years of world history would be worth close examination as well:
https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/
https://www.unz.com/page/world-war-ii-articles/
Given your strong academic background in (I think) history, you could certainly evaluate the credibility of the historical material I present much more effectively than most casual readers.
I've emphasized my lack of expertise in military matters, but very little of my work relies upon that. Some very high-ranking mainstream academic scholars have privately told me they are very impressed with my analysis.Replies: @Jack D, @Twinkie
Burning bodies to cover up war crimes is SOP going back to at least the Nazis. If the Russians have in fact committed war crimes in Mariupol (this is where the mobile crematoria have been sighted) as they did in the Kiev region, then given the level of international scrutiny at this time, they’d be stupid NOT to cover up their war crimes. They have also been stalling on letting the Red Cross into the region, presumably so that they can complete their clean up first.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-accused-mobile-crematoriums-incinerate-civilians-mariupol/story?id=83932376
Thus far in this war, it has not paid to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt. Whatever you imagine they have done, the reality usually turns out to be even worse.
The mistake that you are making is assuming that just because our government lies therefore means that the Russians are telling the truth.
https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1512939725513912323
The evidence strongly suggests that the missile was fired by the Ukrainians. Moreover, according to this Tweet the casing was marked with the phrase "For the Children" written in Russian.
https://twitter.com/CormacS63/status/1512389537179500555
If the Ukrainians fired the missile killing or wounding hundreds, but marked the casing in Russian, it seems most plausible it was intended as a deliberate false-flag to be blamed on the Russians.
I doubt whether any of our MSM will pick up on these facts. That's what I mean by a tilted media landscape.Replies: @HA
https://youtu.be/oR-yS6kULXw?t=883Replies: @HA
“Don’t you mean in his back yard?”
No, his own backyard ended about a couple-of-hours drive north of Kiev. You should stop using maps RT-dot-com.
Or else, if you want to keep insisting Kiev is his backyard, then once he swallows up Ukraine, there’s a couple of other countries who will be his backyard at that point, so the tanks will eventually have to roll onward. Or maybe he’ll “respond” to Finland, if their dalliance with NATO doesn’t go the way he wants.
So much territory, and so many existential threats. It’s like that “mo’money, mo’problems” number that some other Russia expert rapped about way back when, although unlike the fanboys, he actually made some sense now and then, and was probably less of a thug. Really, if Putin wants to have fewer boundary issues, maybe he should just settle for fewer boundaries. Like what he’d have with, say, a Lichtenstein-sized chunk of territory. Maybe he could content himself with that. Little Lichtenstein, from what I’ve read, has managed to avoid getting into a bunch of pointless wars and invasions over the last few years. Take a tip from them, I say.
Old Soviet/Russian joke: A geography instructor at a military academy asks the best cadet, “With whom does the Soviet Union border?” The cadet responds, “With whomever it wants.”
Rand Paul thought he could do what he wanted in his own back yard, He thought wrong, and his medical doctor (and inventor) neighbour was a specialist in pain. But you go ahead and call your neighbour ‘creepy’ like you keep doing to other commentators here. See what happens.
Zelensky got elected by advocating Ukraine fulfill the Minsk Accords, and the integral nationalist system created by Poroshenko refused to let him. The USSR did not invade Western Europe, but Russia did invade Ukraine. Why? Either because Putin is a madman, or because Ukraine had behaved in a foolhardy way for a country abutting Russia, which is not a country known for diplomatic niceties.
What on earth are you talking about? Russia ia losing and the pressure is on Nato to do something about the Russians who are raping and murdering little children. The problem is Russia’s combination of aggression and fragility.
The Russians have actually invaded Ukraine, I think that reliable evidence of Russia believing Ukraine’s Nato partner alignment and western democracy’s ideological soft power aggression is an existential threat. Russia could be wrong about that, but they are not kidding. The early 90s was not a new normal for Russia,
“The War of Putin’s Fear”?
or
“The War of Putin’s Sphere”?
One reason I've been paying attention to Ritter and Macgregor is that they'd both military experts and they're going against a 100% MSM tide, so I can't see why they'd be saying what they are unless they actually believed it. Maybe they're wrong, but I think they're probably being honest.
Exactly the same sort of thing happened in the lead-up to the Iraq War:
https://www.unz.com/runz/the-life-and-legacy-of-lt-gen-william-odom/Replies: @Twinkie, @silviosilver
So in your mind, Ron, anything that is not the MSM line is automatically the truth, eh? Lol.
The insulting thing about this argument is that you expect people to take it seriously.
The sad thing about it is that, on this site, some certainly will.
When experts go ahead a 100% MSM tide, they're much more likely to be sincere. They may be entirely wrong, but they're probably being honest.Replies: @silviosilver, @HA
“The problem is Russia’s combination of aggression and fragility.”
Wow, so all that territory and demand to rule (or else to exercise sphere-of-interest meddling) over even larger expanses has only served to create a “combination of aggression and fragility”, you say? What a basket case! It sounds like Putin’s harangue about how Ukraine was a dangerous state that didn’t deserve to exist was an exercise in projection.
That being the case, I agree with Putin that some de-Nazification and regime change needs to happen, but clearly, it needs to happen in Moscow first. Then we can worry about those Azovians.
Sounds as if all those years of the fanboys sucking up and sympathizing with Russian grievances hasn’t served Russia well in the least. It’s almost as if THEY are the ones who were leading RUSSIA on some “primrose path” to a future they had no realistic hope of reaching. Do I expect the likes of Mearshimer to admit that? Of course not. But it seems you and I both know that it’s true. I suspect some of the other fanboys know that as well, though maybe they’re only telling their wives or something. They’re weaselly like that, in addition to being downright creepy.
As for “Russia is losing”, I’ll believe that when I see it. If it’s true, then right now, a swarm of FSB agents and other well-placed Putin stooges are scrawling notes to various US embassy staff with words like “WILL SPY FOR CHEEP — CALL ME MAYBE?” Unfortunately, they don’t publish the official counts of such notes in “CIA Today”, and it will take time to see whether a would-be defector is legit, or else some double-agent laying a trap for Russia, so we’ll have to wait and see, unless you have some more authoritative evidence to prove what you say. I can’t say I’d be sad if that were true, but again, I’ll believe it when I see it. Until then, I’m thinking those Ukrainians need more weapons and more defenses.
Russia then led by Yeltsin (who the US had all sorts of influence over and whose circle was frankly being personally paid off by Western money) did nothing beyond complaining in 1999 when Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO. In 2004 the Baltic states, and Romania joined Nato, which the Russians hated, yet again did nothing. There were NATO exercises held in Ukraine, even in Crimea. In 2004 ethnic Russian Viktor Yanukovych won an election for the Presidency of Ukraine but was stopped from taking office by the Orange Revolution demonstrations, which were largely orchestrated by Poroshenko, who was the campaign manager of the winner of the re run Viktor Yushchenko.
In 2008,over strong objections from Germany and France and at the insistence of America, there was an official announcement that Ukraine would be joining NATO. The Russians said in that case Ukraine would cease to exist. In 2010 the ethnic Russian Yanukovych managed to win the presidential election again, and after a few years he was overthrown by demonstrations orchestrated by (stop me if you have heard this before) Poroshenko, who then was elected President . That is when the East Ukraine rebellion's started.
In 2014 when duly elected President of Ukraine Yanukovych fled the country (in a helicopter because his motorcade was shot at) Russia annexed Crimea. As already mentioned, there had been actual NATO exercises in Crimea when it belonged to Ukraine. Obama thought that was the wrong thing to do after the fighting began in 2014, he overruled his advisors (especially Blinken) who wanted to give defensive weapons to Ukraine. Trump was persuaded to by being told that it would help American business. Poroshenko was the feted in Congress as he pleaded for weapons and Nato membership. But Trump never agreed to a meeting with Poroshenko, and did not give him Stingers. It was when Biden became president that Blinken got to send a deluge of advanced weapon to Ukraine including technology for accurate artillery (Ukraine has quite a few howitzers) strikes, counter battery radar and eventually Stingers. In July last year a Black sea a Nato exercise in which a British navy ship sailed close to Crimea resulted in a warning by Russia that there would be sailors hurt the next time.
Whatever effect has all this support for Ukraine had, it certainly did not deter the Russians from esculating much more than anyone expected. So if you percist with the 'Russians are ten feet tall and have not begun to fight mindset' give the Ukraine wherewithal to stop supposedly strong Russian advances it might well enable Ukraine to push Russia right back. No one can say what would happen then.
The insulting thing about this argument is that you expect people to take it seriously.
The sad thing about it is that, on this site, some certainly will.Replies: @Ron Unz
Not at all. The point is that when the MSM is 100% on one side, it’s difficult to know whether individuals or experts who take that position are being sincere.
When experts go ahead a 100% MSM tide, they’re much more likely to be sincere. They may be entirely wrong, but they’re probably being honest.
(But in fairness, you do have a point. I should have said that, according to your logic, anyone going against a 100% MSM line is automatically telling the truth [as they see it; not deliberately lying] rather than the words I chose. Of course, now that you have added the softener "probably" I would have to drop "automatically" as well.)Replies: @Ron Unz
The pro-Russia people suggest that the Russian KIAs have been minimized by excluding any Donbas militia losses, Wagner-type mercenaries, etc. so they guess 2,500 is more likely. Meanwhile, the other side claims 7,000-14,000 dead, which seems totally crazy to me given the overwhelming Russian advantages in force and hardware. Some of the MSM stories claim the Russians are using "mobile crematoria" to make their bodies disappear and that also seems ridiculous.
So the Russian side seems much more plausible. So you agree that the MSM was 100% pro-Iraq War but eventually began warning of a possible "quagmire." Since the end result was a gigantic quagmire, isn't that a sign of reality gradually seeping into Neocon-controlled propaganda? You're someone with a strong academic background who later became heavily involved in military matters, including the Iraq War. Having been so personally involved it's obviously much more psychologically difficult for you to fully admit to yourself that you'd actually been tricked and manipulated from the very beginning. You're also someone from a rightwing, ultra-patriotic immigrant background, which leaves you especially vulnerable to particular types of such manipulation.
However, I do find it extraordinary that you've been actively participating in this website for many years now, and yet seem completely unaware of the likely true facts behind the 9/11 attacks, in which as you say your own home city was attacked causing you to "lose your mind." Under those circumstances, it's probably worth considering who actually attacked your city.
For obvious reasons, there are very practical factors that may lead someone to avoid recognizing certain harsh realities, which might severely disrupt one's day-to-day activities. But if you haven't already done so, you really should take a look at my recent article on those events that so reshaped your worldview twenty years ago:
https://www.unz.com/runz/seeking-9-11-truth-after-twenty-years/
Indeed, I think much of my entire American Pravda series on the last 100 years of world history would be worth close examination as well:
https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/
https://www.unz.com/page/world-war-ii-articles/
Given your strong academic background in (I think) history, you could certainly evaluate the credibility of the historical material I present much more effectively than most casual readers.
I've emphasized my lack of expertise in military matters, but very little of my work relies upon that. Some very high-ranking mainstream academic scholars have privately told me they are very impressed with my analysis.Replies: @Jack D, @Twinkie
I’ll tell you something I learned in training years ago – one of the ways to generate sincerity is to engage in self-deception. People who lie to themselves might not be lying to you, but they will lead you astray from the truth just as easily as those who lie.
I’ll tell you a shocking secret. Don’t tell anyone else, okay? Often open source analyses are much more accurate and timely than those produced by the intelligence community. I know, I know, crazy, huh? Especially given that the latter spends billions of dollars and has all kinds of technical wonders its disposal (interestingly enough, the massive data intake actually paralyzes the intelligence agencies). Jim Dunnigan, a war game designer, has a funny story about inventing a combat odds calculation system for his games (roll the dice!) in a few minutes and later being visited by USG, because it resembled a classified system that the USG spent billions deriving.
Moreover, open source analyses are very transparent about their methodology. Take my crude estimate of 8,000 Russian KIA. It’s based on a compilation of Russian and Ukrainian vehicle losses (in turn based on visual confirmations) and comparing the loss rate to that suffered by the U.S. in the Iraq War. Is this a perfect or even an accurate methodology? Probably not, but it’s better than those based on “feelz” and are based on concrete, material evidences. You can certainly argue about the quality of those evidences or the rigor of the methodology, but that’s a different argumentation altogether than debating conflicting “feelz.”
Now explain to me the underlying data and the methodology that led to this 2,500 number.
What happened to your earlier assessment that Ukraine has “an enormous and well-trained” military?
I see you suffer from the same inexperience and lack of knowledge as Anatoly Karlin and think war is bean-counting. In war, intangibles such as training level, morale, and cohesion matter a great deal as well other non-quantifiable factors such as doctrine, strategy, and operational/tactical proficiency. 8,000 Russian KIA seems relatively credible to me, because we have – in open sources – recorded video footages of Russian vehicle convoys reacting poorly to ambushes, e.g. just trying to boogie out of the kill zone in panic, instead of having infantry rapidly dismount, establish fire superiority, maneuver and kill the ambushers (something our Army mechanized infantry and Marines excel at, after years of training and live combat in Iraq and Afghanistan). I should point out, parenthetically, that the more recent videos shows the Russian mounted infantry reacting much better than earlier footages – so the Russians are clearly learning and adjusting (which is par for the course, since war is a mutually-learning and -imitating activity).
There are other factors that lend credence to the estimate such as the fact that the Ukrainians seem well-trained and -motivated and set up good ambushes with their hunter-kill teams. Confronting AFVs as infantrymen – even with the next generation ATGMs – takes a lot of skill and daring, and, again, we have open source video footages of the Ukrainian forces doing it well (completely contrary to my earlier expectation at the beginning of the war – I earlier held the Ukrainian military in low regard).
And let’s not forget the fact that the Ukrainians are on defense and fighting on their own grounds. In urban and suburban areas, as opposed to open field battles, that’s going to confer even greater advantage to the defenders.
I know you are into conspiracies, but much of evil in this world is a result of plain greed, ambition, self-delusion, and incompetence (often bureaucratic incompetence) rather than some machination of an inner cabal. Intelligence agencies are typically very stolid, gray, and risk-averse bureaucracies (especially on the analytic side; there are people who are into hairbrained schemes on the paramilitary side). On top of that, they are not omnipotent and have significant bureaucratic manpower resource issues. They don’t have the wherewithal to be creating a large number of false tweets in the hope that some obscure website would use it to create a distorted image of the respective casualty levels. If anything, the likes of CIA and MI6 are probably pretty embarrassed right now (internally) that some open source site seems to have a better grasp of what’s going on than their analytic sides do (or at least arrive as similar estimate much cheaper).
Ever hear “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me”?
With all due respect, the rest of your comment is ad hominem, attempt at internet armchair psycho-analysis, handwaving, diversion to unrelated topics, and has nothing to do with arriving at a good estimate for Russian KIA in this conflict.
You asked me what I thought was a good estimate. I gave you my crude estimate and my source and methodology. It’s, of course, up to you believe whether this is better or worse than either the Russian or the Ukrainian claims. But please don’t engage in contorted Scott Ritter-level mental gymnastics, complete with attacks on my “psyche” to tell me why your “feelz” is better than what I presented. It’s quite insulting when all I have done is to engage in an earnest conversation out of respect for you and your platform.
Similarly, everyone knows you can't trust Wikipedia on any sort of "touchy" issue because there are energetic groups determined to control of the narrative. No methodology because there's no solid information unless you believe that website. As of a week or so ago, the Russians said 1,350 and the Ukrainians are apparently now claiming 19,000(!) KIAs, including 7,000 Russian bodies sitting in their morgues, so the truth is probably somewhere between those two limits.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html That's actually not correct. Until just a few years ago, I never paid any attention to what you're denigrating as "conspiracies" but when I built my content-archiving system, I discovered that the history of the early 20th century was very different from what I'd always assumed, and that started me looking into other "suspicious" things. If you take a look at some of my American Pravda articles, you can decide for yourself whether my analysis is correct, but I think it probably is. Sure, but I don't really care all that much about the Russian KIAs, and I'd assume in a month or two, we'll know who was more accurate. If 19,000 or even just 8,000 Russians have been killed that can't be permanently hidden.
I think the broader issues I was raising are much more important, and I was simply suggesting why I think you're so reluctant to look into any of them. From what I remember, you were on an academic track but then shifted to the military, and ended up becoming quite successful in some related enterprises. Assuming my vague recollection is correct and you're from an ultra-patriotic immigrant background with your business activities closely tied to Defense it's easy to see why you'd prefer not to examine certain things, especially since your strong academic background would make it much easier for you to evaluate their credibility. Remember that famous Upton Sinclair quote.
Oddly enough in some respects you remind me a little of Scott Ritter. I'd never paid much attention to him until the last couple of weeks, but in the interviews he comes across as an extremely patriotic, honest, and personally courageous individual. Although his views on Russia/Ukraine deviate from the MSM, as far as I can tell, absolutely everything else he believes about the history of America and the 20th century is 100% mainstream and conventional, quite unlike my own.
As a final thought, it's been almost 15 years now, but I remember the last interview Bill Odom gave was to some alternative weekly I'd never heard of and they quoted him as saying that the American government was run by traitors. I only came across it after his sudden death a few weeks later, so I never had a chance to ask him exactly what he'd meant by that.
And that was many, many years before I ever started investigating "conspiracy theories"...Replies: @Twinkie
https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-accused-mobile-crematoriums-incinerate-civilians-mariupol/story?id=83932376
Thus far in this war, it has not paid to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt. Whatever you imagine they have done, the reality usually turns out to be even worse.
The mistake that you are making is assuming that just because our government lies therefore means that the Russians are telling the truth.Replies: @Twinkie, @Ron Unz
All you have are your presumptions.
Aren’t you a lawyer or something? What do they say about the presumption of guilt in court?
https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-accused-mobile-crematoriums-incinerate-civilians-mariupol/story?id=83932376
Thus far in this war, it has not paid to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt. Whatever you imagine they have done, the reality usually turns out to be even worse.
The mistake that you are making is assuming that just because our government lies therefore means that the Russians are telling the truth.Replies: @Twinkie, @Ron Unz
In my earlier comment I stated:
That Tochka-U missile strike that’s been dominating today’s MSM headlines seems a perfect example of what I mean. Here’s a Tweet that’s now going around:
The evidence strongly suggests that the missile was fired by the Ukrainians. Moreover, according to this Tweet the casing was marked with the phrase “For the Children” written in Russian.
If the Ukrainians fired the missile killing or wounding hundreds, but marked the casing in Russian, it seems most plausible it was intended as a deliberate false-flag to be blamed on the Russians.
I doubt whether any of our MSM will pick up on these facts. That’s what I mean by a tilted media landscape.
If you have nothing to hide then you would have no reason to keep the Red Cross out of your occupied areas.
What I have been doing is making logical inferences from Russian behavior. You are free to disagree with my inferences just as Ron Unz disagrees with your inference that there have been 8,000 combat deaths and prefers to believe the Russian statement that there have been only 1,351.
Maybe the real reason the Russian have not allowed the Red Cross in is that they want to prepare them a lovely welcoming banquet and the lobster order has not yet arrived or something like that. But I think that my explanation makes more sense than the Russian explanation which (in this case) is not to give any explanation. This is better than their usual form of explanation that normally consists of outrageous, easily refuted lies such as saying that dead bodies only appeared after they left the area, but it’s still not an adequate and truthful explanation and in it’s absence I’m going with the theory that they are keeping the Red Cross out so that they can clean up Mariupol better than they cleaned up Bucha which was a massive public relations disaster for them (far outweighing whatever benefit they gained from killing a bunch of civilians) and which has led the West to give the Ukrainians even more aid and put even more sanctions on Russia.
Not wising to repeat this, the Russians could stop committing atrocities, but no that would be too hard – we have been told here that this is an existential war for Russia and they really have no choice but to commit war crimes (such as waging aggressive war – this is what got most of the Nazis at Nuremberg hung). So their only other choice is to continue to commit them but this time cover them up better.
Not allowing access to an operational area to the Red Cross is not an evidence that war crimes are being covered up. All your statements are presumptions and "maybe's." You keep throwing muck at the wall to see what sticks, because you have a supposition ("Russians are SS-style war criminals!") and you are trying to fit everything you see into that supposition, instead of carefully evaluating what you see and formulating an accurate model of reality in your mind.
The Russian military may or may not have committed war crimes, but suppositions, a priori assumptions of evil, and maybe's don't cut it as evidences, nor are practices shared by all other governments and military forces.
When experts go ahead a 100% MSM tide, they're much more likely to be sincere. They may be entirely wrong, but they're probably being honest.Replies: @silviosilver, @HA
You must have assessed that probability as awfully high in order to say they’re going against a 100% MSM tide, so I can’t see why they’d be saying what they are unless they actually believed it.
(But in fairness, you do have a point. I should have said that, according to your logic, anyone going against a 100% MSM line is automatically telling the truth [as they see it; not deliberately lying] rather than the words I chose. Of course, now that you have added the softener “probably” I would have to drop “automatically” as well.)
Perhaps you'll understand my position better if it apply it to your own racialist area of focus. When people get up and ferociously denounce "racism," maybe they believe it and maybe they don't. But when someone publicly takes a strongly "racist" position, I think he's probably being honest. Maybe he's right and maybe he's strong, but he's honest.Replies: @silviosilver
Moreover, open source analyses are very transparent about their methodology. Take my crude estimate of 8,000 Russian KIA. It's based on a compilation of Russian and Ukrainian vehicle losses (in turn based on visual confirmations) and comparing the loss rate to that suffered by the U.S. in the Iraq War. Is this a perfect or even an accurate methodology? Probably not, but it's better than those based on "feelz" and are based on concrete, material evidences. You can certainly argue about the quality of those evidences or the rigor of the methodology, but that's a different argumentation altogether than debating conflicting "feelz." Now explain to me the underlying data and the methodology that led to this 2,500 number. What happened to your earlier assessment that Ukraine has "an enormous and well-trained" military?
I see you suffer from the same inexperience and lack of knowledge as Anatoly Karlin and think war is bean-counting. In war, intangibles such as training level, morale, and cohesion matter a great deal as well other non-quantifiable factors such as doctrine, strategy, and operational/tactical proficiency. 8,000 Russian KIA seems relatively credible to me, because we have - in open sources - recorded video footages of Russian vehicle convoys reacting poorly to ambushes, e.g. just trying to boogie out of the kill zone in panic, instead of having infantry rapidly dismount, establish fire superiority, maneuver and kill the ambushers (something our Army mechanized infantry and Marines excel at, after years of training and live combat in Iraq and Afghanistan). I should point out, parenthetically, that the more recent videos shows the Russian mounted infantry reacting much better than earlier footages - so the Russians are clearly learning and adjusting (which is par for the course, since war is a mutually-learning and -imitating activity).
There are other factors that lend credence to the estimate such as the fact that the Ukrainians seem well-trained and -motivated and set up good ambushes with their hunter-kill teams. Confronting AFVs as infantrymen - even with the next generation ATGMs - takes a lot of skill and daring, and, again, we have open source video footages of the Ukrainian forces doing it well (completely contrary to my earlier expectation at the beginning of the war - I earlier held the Ukrainian military in low regard).
And let's not forget the fact that the Ukrainians are on defense and fighting on their own grounds. In urban and suburban areas, as opposed to open field battles, that's going to confer even greater advantage to the defenders. I know you are into conspiracies, but much of evil in this world is a result of plain greed, ambition, self-delusion, and incompetence (often bureaucratic incompetence) rather than some machination of an inner cabal. Intelligence agencies are typically very stolid, gray, and risk-averse bureaucracies (especially on the analytic side; there are people who are into hairbrained schemes on the paramilitary side). On top of that, they are not omnipotent and have significant bureaucratic manpower resource issues. They don't have the wherewithal to be creating a large number of false tweets in the hope that some obscure website would use it to create a distorted image of the respective casualty levels. If anything, the likes of CIA and MI6 are probably pretty embarrassed right now (internally) that some open source site seems to have a better grasp of what's going on than their analytic sides do (or at least arrive as similar estimate much cheaper). Ever hear "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"?
With all due respect, the rest of your comment is ad hominem, attempt at internet armchair psycho-analysis, handwaving, diversion to unrelated topics, and has nothing to do with arriving at a good estimate for Russian KIA in this conflict.
You asked me what I thought was a good estimate. I gave you my crude estimate and my source and methodology. It's, of course, up to you believe whether this is better or worse than either the Russian or the Ukrainian claims. But please don't engage in contorted Scott Ritter-level mental gymnastics, complete with attacks on my "psyche" to tell me why your "feelz" is better than what I presented. It's quite insulting when all I have done is to engage in an earnest conversation out of respect for you and your platform.Replies: @Ron Unz
Isn’t that the problem? I don’t know anything about that website, but offhand it looks like people just send them Tweets with pictures of destroyed/damaged vehicles and they compile them. Even if you exclude the CIA or MI6, why wouldn’t the Ukrainians just get their supporters to produce fake/duplicate vehicle Tweets and send them in to make their numbers look better? The Ukrainian side has already produced a huge amount of widely-believed disinfo like that super-pilot and those dead troops on the island. Fake Tweets would be pretty trivial by comparison.
Similarly, everyone knows you can’t trust Wikipedia on any sort of “touchy” issue because there are energetic groups determined to control of the narrative.
No methodology because there’s no solid information unless you believe that website. As of a week or so ago, the Russians said 1,350 and the Ukrainians are apparently now claiming 19,000(!) KIAs, including 7,000 Russian bodies sitting in their morgues, so the truth is probably somewhere between those two limits.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html
That’s actually not correct. Until just a few years ago, I never paid any attention to what you’re denigrating as “conspiracies” but when I built my content-archiving system, I discovered that the history of the early 20th century was very different from what I’d always assumed, and that started me looking into other “suspicious” things. If you take a look at some of my American Pravda articles, you can decide for yourself whether my analysis is correct, but I think it probably is.
Sure, but I don’t really care all that much about the Russian KIAs, and I’d assume in a month or two, we’ll know who was more accurate. If 19,000 or even just 8,000 Russians have been killed that can’t be permanently hidden.
I think the broader issues I was raising are much more important, and I was simply suggesting why I think you’re so reluctant to look into any of them. From what I remember, you were on an academic track but then shifted to the military, and ended up becoming quite successful in some related enterprises. Assuming my vague recollection is correct and you’re from an ultra-patriotic immigrant background with your business activities closely tied to Defense it’s easy to see why you’d prefer not to examine certain things, especially since your strong academic background would make it much easier for you to evaluate their credibility. Remember that famous Upton Sinclair quote.
Oddly enough in some respects you remind me a little of Scott Ritter. I’d never paid much attention to him until the last couple of weeks, but in the interviews he comes across as an extremely patriotic, honest, and personally courageous individual. Although his views on Russia/Ukraine deviate from the MSM, as far as I can tell, absolutely everything else he believes about the history of America and the 20th century is 100% mainstream and conventional, quite unlike my own.
As a final thought, it’s been almost 15 years now, but I remember the last interview Bill Odom gave was to some alternative weekly I’d never heard of and they quoted him as saying that the American government was run by traitors. I only came across it after his sudden death a few weeks later, so I never had a chance to ask him exactly what he’d meant by that.
And that was many, many years before I ever started investigating “conspiracy theories”…
What are you talking about? No military and government in the world allows the Red Cross or any other organization, no matter how noble or “helpful” to just drop in their areas of operation at will anytime they feel like it. Even our own government does the same. The American Red Cross was all grumpy in the aftermath of Katrina, because the US Army National Guard and the local law enforcement authorities prevented it from operating in New Orleans without their prior approval. Were the ARNG and New Orleans law enforcement also covering up war crimes?
Not allowing access to an operational area to the Red Cross is not an evidence that war crimes are being covered up.
All your statements are presumptions and “maybe’s.” You keep throwing muck at the wall to see what sticks, because you have a supposition (“Russians are SS-style war criminals!”) and you are trying to fit everything you see into that supposition, instead of carefully evaluating what you see and formulating an accurate model of reality in your mind.
The Russian military may or may not have committed war crimes, but suppositions, a priori assumptions of evil, and maybe’s don’t cut it as evidences, nor are practices shared by all other governments and military forces.
Similarly, everyone knows you can't trust Wikipedia on any sort of "touchy" issue because there are energetic groups determined to control of the narrative. No methodology because there's no solid information unless you believe that website. As of a week or so ago, the Russians said 1,350 and the Ukrainians are apparently now claiming 19,000(!) KIAs, including 7,000 Russian bodies sitting in their morgues, so the truth is probably somewhere between those two limits.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10698995/More-7-000-unclaimed-Russian-soldiers-bodies-Ukrainian-morgues-claims-Kyiv.html That's actually not correct. Until just a few years ago, I never paid any attention to what you're denigrating as "conspiracies" but when I built my content-archiving system, I discovered that the history of the early 20th century was very different from what I'd always assumed, and that started me looking into other "suspicious" things. If you take a look at some of my American Pravda articles, you can decide for yourself whether my analysis is correct, but I think it probably is. Sure, but I don't really care all that much about the Russian KIAs, and I'd assume in a month or two, we'll know who was more accurate. If 19,000 or even just 8,000 Russians have been killed that can't be permanently hidden.
I think the broader issues I was raising are much more important, and I was simply suggesting why I think you're so reluctant to look into any of them. From what I remember, you were on an academic track but then shifted to the military, and ended up becoming quite successful in some related enterprises. Assuming my vague recollection is correct and you're from an ultra-patriotic immigrant background with your business activities closely tied to Defense it's easy to see why you'd prefer not to examine certain things, especially since your strong academic background would make it much easier for you to evaluate their credibility. Remember that famous Upton Sinclair quote.
Oddly enough in some respects you remind me a little of Scott Ritter. I'd never paid much attention to him until the last couple of weeks, but in the interviews he comes across as an extremely patriotic, honest, and personally courageous individual. Although his views on Russia/Ukraine deviate from the MSM, as far as I can tell, absolutely everything else he believes about the history of America and the 20th century is 100% mainstream and conventional, quite unlike my own.
As a final thought, it's been almost 15 years now, but I remember the last interview Bill Odom gave was to some alternative weekly I'd never heard of and they quoted him as saying that the American government was run by traitors. I only came across it after his sudden death a few weeks later, so I never had a chance to ask him exactly what he'd meant by that.
And that was many, many years before I ever started investigating "conspiracy theories"...Replies: @Twinkie
Wouldn’t Russians do the same since the site also tracks the number of Ukrainian vehicles lost? They could make the Ukrainians look like they lost thousands of vehicles. The Russian government is said to have invested rather heavily in information warfare capabilities. They would also be able to expose any duplicates and fakes rather easily and Tweet all about it and embarrass the Ukrainians as lying propagandists (which they do when the Ukrainians make outlandish claims). Or maybe they are a bit busy running a deadly military conflict and can’t be bothered to Twitter-fight like teenage girls.
I appreciate the candid admission that the 2,500 figure is based on nothing but feelings.
Sounds like my 8,000 KIA estimate is pretty reasonable then! Not only does it have some factual evidence and a methodology of sort backing it, it also has the benefit of being somewhere in between the contending claims of the two sides!
You should note that my confidence in my own estimate is not high (because the methodology is crude and the quality of evidence is not 100% by any stretch of imagination) – only the Russians know the real number and it could be substantially higher or lower (as I stated before). Nonetheless, a crude, but reasonable estimate based on some semblance of physical evidence and a methodology based on another war (i.e. history) is much more preferable whether in forming a simple mental picture or making policy decisions than “feelz.”
It is correct, because I’ve seen it with my lying eyes. I’ve seen – firsthand – careerism, personal ambitions, bureaucratic incompetence all combine to produce tragedies.
1) Stop it with the patronizing (and incorrect) profiling. 2) My “business activities” have nothing to do with Defense. I am in healthcare and agriculture.
Maybe you are surrounded by people whose lives are guided by their business interests or money, but I surround myself with people who care about God, country, community, and family. So, again, stop insulting me with the stupid insinuations that some sort of Defense-related business activities are affecting my judgment or truth-saying.
Like all human beings my interests and intellectual capacities have limits. I don’t have the time or the inclination to go rabbit hole-diving into every conspiracy theory I see on the internet. I stick to things that are interesting and engaging to me. And you shouldn’t use the fact that I don’t read all your articles as some sort of mental block created by monetary interests. That’s just silly.
Why did you ask me about it then?
I hope not. I am not a registered sex offender. Nor am I someone who seeks a public profile or notoriety (I don’t use any social media or issue Tweets or what have you).
Frankly, I'm not aware of any blatant lies the Russians have told during the war so far---they've mostly just kept silent. Meanwhile, the level of Ukrainian lies and propaganda, amplified by the Western MSM has been absolutely astonishing, with the apparent false-flag missile massacre just the latest example. That leaves me highly suspicious about all informational factors. Exactly. They basically accept the official Russian total as being "technically accurate" but substantially under-counted by excluding various other losses. So it all comes down to whether or not you believe that the Russians would be totally, utterly lying about their KIAs, and the true figure was actually 600% or 1500% higher. I'm doubtful about that, but we'll eventually know. My apologies. It was several years ago and I thought that you'd once mentioned you'd segued from a military career to military-related business activities.
Still, given the years you've spent on this website, your original background (if I remember correctly) in history, and your focus on strategic/geopolitical issues in general and 9/11 in particular, I was puzzled if you'd never looked at my analysis of those events.Replies: @Twinkie
The Fifties are calling, they want their domino theory back.
So far it has been like Korea where in the north the US/UN forces were defeated by an agile enemy, and in the south there was a stalemate. The only success Russian has had is the breakout from Crimea, which was a surprising attack across rough terrain that the Ukrainians had not properly defended. Russia still does not control central Mariupol In the central Donbass it is flat and open and tanks and the Russian forces can come in waves on a broad front rather than sticking their neck out like a giraffe with a procession up the road through abundant coconcealnt for ambushers. However, artillery fire has actually been accounting for far more tanks than given credit for (experiment not tooo long ago shows that shells can miss a tank yet still seriously damage it and many Russian vehicles abandoned undamaged were probably left under artillery fire. Anyway, Russian troops have had shown no ability to significantly advance at all against powerful regular Ukrainian army dug in positions that have been prepared for years.
I think the CIA know a lot, the director told the Ukrainians all about the raid on the airport weeks beforehand. The trouble is Russia’s offensive capability was massively overestimated by Western intel. That style of thinking is not going to go away they are going to want to see a stake through the heart of the Russian army in Ukraine before they admit it is not expected to triumph in the end. Mearsheimer has always known better as his book in the 1980 proves.
Russia then led by Yeltsin (who the US had all sorts of influence over and whose circle was frankly being personally paid off by Western money) did nothing beyond complaining in 1999 when Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO. In 2004 the Baltic states, and Romania joined Nato, which the Russians hated, yet again did nothing. There were NATO exercises held in Ukraine, even in Crimea. In 2004 ethnic Russian Viktor Yanukovych won an election for the Presidency of Ukraine but was stopped from taking office by the Orange Revolution demonstrations, which were largely orchestrated by Poroshenko, who was the campaign manager of the winner of the re run Viktor Yushchenko.
In 2008,over strong objections from Germany and France and at the insistence of America, there was an official announcement that Ukraine would be joining NATO. The Russians said in that case Ukraine would cease to exist. In 2010 the ethnic Russian Yanukovych managed to win the presidential election again, and after a few years he was overthrown by demonstrations orchestrated by (stop me if you have heard this before) Poroshenko, who then was elected President . That is when the East Ukraine rebellion’s started.
In 2014 when duly elected President of Ukraine Yanukovych fled the country (in a helicopter because his motorcade was shot at) Russia annexed Crimea.
As already mentioned, there had been actual NATO exercises in Crimea when it belonged to Ukraine.
Obama thought that was the wrong thing to do after the fighting began in 2014, he overruled his advisors (especially Blinken) who wanted to give defensive weapons to Ukraine. Trump was persuaded to by being told that it would help American business. Poroshenko was the feted in Congress as he pleaded for weapons and Nato membership. But Trump never agreed to a meeting with Poroshenko, and did not give him Stingers. It was when Biden became president that Blinken got to send a deluge of advanced weapon to Ukraine including technology for accurate artillery (Ukraine has quite a few howitzers) strikes, counter battery radar and eventually Stingers. In July last year a Black sea a Nato exercise in which a British navy ship sailed close to Crimea resulted in a warning by Russia that there would be sailors hurt the next time.
Whatever effect has all this support for Ukraine had, it certainly did not deter the Russians from esculating much more than anyone expected. So if you percist with the ‘Russians are ten feet tall and have not begun to fight mindset’ give the Ukraine wherewithal to stop supposedly strong Russian advances it might well enable Ukraine to push Russia right back. No one can say what would happen then.
By my count, roughly 100 of those pages are devoted to classified advertising. The Calendar tabloid runs 96 pages. The daily Olympics section (separate from the regular Sports section) runs 44 pages.
Here's a slideshow:
https://streamable.com/wkc08jReplies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous
Lying in bed for half the day reading the Sunday newspapers was one of the great pleasures of the pre-internet era.
(But in fairness, you do have a point. I should have said that, according to your logic, anyone going against a 100% MSM line is automatically telling the truth [as they see it; not deliberately lying] rather than the words I chose. Of course, now that you have added the softener "probably" I would have to drop "automatically" as well.)Replies: @Ron Unz
It’s really not very complicated. When there’s a 100% MSM tide in one direction, it’s hard to know who’s being candid and who’s going along to get along. But when people like John Mearsheimer, Ray McGovern, Douglas Macgregor, and Scott Ritter go so strongly against it, there are only a few possibilities: (1) They’re crazy, (2) They’ve been bribed, or (3) They believe what they’re saying. I vote for (3). Maybe they’re mistaken, but I think they’re being honest.
Perhaps you’ll understand my position better if it apply it to your own racialist area of focus. When people get up and ferociously denounce “racism,” maybe they believe it and maybe they don’t. But when someone publicly takes a strongly “racist” position, I think he’s probably being honest. Maybe he’s right and maybe he’s strong, but he’s honest.
The Russians are pretty mediocre at propaganda, and Twitter has apparently been purging all the pro-Russian accounts that merely presented factual information. The crucial consideration is that the West has total control over the media/propaganda landscape, including social media, and that tilts everything. Anyway, the Ukrainians have supposedly already lost over 90% of their tanks, so why bother boosting that to 95%?
Frankly, I’m not aware of any blatant lies the Russians have told during the war so far—they’ve mostly just kept silent. Meanwhile, the level of Ukrainian lies and propaganda, amplified by the Western MSM has been absolutely astonishing, with the apparent false-flag missile massacre just the latest example. That leaves me highly suspicious about all informational factors.
Exactly. They basically accept the official Russian total as being “technically accurate” but substantially under-counted by excluding various other losses. So it all comes down to whether or not you believe that the Russians would be totally, utterly lying about their KIAs, and the true figure was actually 600% or 1500% higher. I’m doubtful about that, but we’ll eventually know.
My apologies. It was several years ago and I thought that you’d once mentioned you’d segued from a military career to military-related business activities.
Still, given the years you’ve spent on this website, your original background (if I remember correctly) in history, and your focus on strategic/geopolitical issues in general and 9/11 in particular, I was puzzled if you’d never looked at my analysis of those events.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/europe/russia-conscripts-fighting-ukraine-intl/index.html You want another one? That "there will be no additional call-up of reservists." Russia is mobilizing additional forces, including reserves as well as "peacekeeping forces" deployed elsewhere such as Georgia.
ALL governments and militaries tell lies in wartime, to varying extents - including our own. Whether Russians, Ukrainians, or us in Iraq, the number of tanks destroyed is going to be fairly low. AFVs in general, even thinner-skinned APCs and IFVs don't get destroyed in large numbers except in extremely fierce, large-scale battles with lots of other AFVs and next generation ATGMs, CAS, attack helos, etc. Most vehicles lost in wars are going to be jeep-type vehicles, Humvees, recovery vehicles, transport trucks, etc. Most people who don't know much about military operations fixate on shiny, big things such as tanks and IFVs, but trucks are vital to military operations and they are extremely vulnerable. Such vehicle losses are very notable, because they tell you about the logistical capability of a given force as well as its ability to control the supply lines behind the forward edge of battle. Yes, but "eventually" can be a rather long time, especially since Russia's government has made Russian casualty figures a state secret... as opposed to our war dead in Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you remember how gleefully (with crocodile tears) our mainstream media was running a daily tally every time an American service personnel died? I was a defense contractor for like 5 minutes years and year ago. I didn't last long, because I wouldn't sell out my country's interests to the PRC (which my employer did). I wrote a little bit about it on Unz somewhere.Replies: @Ron Unz
Frankly, I'm not aware of any blatant lies the Russians have told during the war so far---they've mostly just kept silent. Meanwhile, the level of Ukrainian lies and propaganda, amplified by the Western MSM has been absolutely astonishing, with the apparent false-flag missile massacre just the latest example. That leaves me highly suspicious about all informational factors. Exactly. They basically accept the official Russian total as being "technically accurate" but substantially under-counted by excluding various other losses. So it all comes down to whether or not you believe that the Russians would be totally, utterly lying about their KIAs, and the true figure was actually 600% or 1500% higher. I'm doubtful about that, but we'll eventually know. My apologies. It was several years ago and I thought that you'd once mentioned you'd segued from a military career to military-related business activities.
Still, given the years you've spent on this website, your original background (if I remember correctly) in history, and your focus on strategic/geopolitical issues in general and 9/11 in particular, I was puzzled if you'd never looked at my analysis of those events.Replies: @Twinkie
I’ll give you an obvious one: “We don’t have conscripts in the ‘special military operations.’”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/europe/russia-conscripts-fighting-ukraine-intl/index.html
You want another one? That “there will be no additional call-up of reservists.” Russia is mobilizing additional forces, including reserves as well as “peacekeeping forces” deployed elsewhere such as Georgia.
ALL governments and militaries tell lies in wartime, to varying extents – including our own.
Whether Russians, Ukrainians, or us in Iraq, the number of tanks destroyed is going to be fairly low. AFVs in general, even thinner-skinned APCs and IFVs don’t get destroyed in large numbers except in extremely fierce, large-scale battles with lots of other AFVs and next generation ATGMs, CAS, attack helos, etc. Most vehicles lost in wars are going to be jeep-type vehicles, Humvees, recovery vehicles, transport trucks, etc. Most people who don’t know much about military operations fixate on shiny, big things such as tanks and IFVs, but trucks are vital to military operations and they are extremely vulnerable. Such vehicle losses are very notable, because they tell you about the logistical capability of a given force as well as its ability to control the supply lines behind the forward edge of battle.
Yes, but “eventually” can be a rather long time, especially since Russia’s government has made Russian casualty figures a state secret… as opposed to our war dead in Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you remember how gleefully (with crocodile tears) our mainstream media was running a daily tally every time an American service personnel died?
I was a defense contractor for like 5 minutes years and year ago. I didn’t last long, because I wouldn’t sell out my country’s interests to the PRC (which my employer did). I wrote a little bit about it on Unz somewhere.
I'd hardly regard your examples as huge lies. Putin had made some feel-good public statement saying that conscripts weren't involved in the Russian invasion, and it turns out that some were. Maybe the numbers were pretty small so Putin was just misinformed. If (say) the invasion force was 95% professional, that would be easy to understand.
Meanwhile, there seems overwhelming evidence that the Ukrainians deliberately massacred their own civilians in that missile attack, hoping to blame it on the Russians. I'd say that's a much, much bigger lie.
One reason I became irritated with you is that you're obviously an intelligent individual with a strong academic background and based upon your statements, a considerable sense of American patriotism. But for whatever reasons, you seem extremely reluctant to seriously look into matters of tremendous important to this country, perhaps because you're quietly concerned that the answers you find might be too uncomfortable.
For example, the Covid epidemic has now killed well over a million Americans, and for two years I've been pointing to the strong perhaps even overwhelming evidence that it was probably the result of an American biowarfare attack against China (and Iran). Given the devastation our society has suffered, I think anyone even slightly patriotic should regard it as a significant matter. Here's a short video interview I did a month or two laying out the case. Together with a couple of others, it's now been viewed over 350,000 times:
https://rumble.com/embed/vsi3d0/
And here are the articles in my series:
https://www.unz.com/page/covid-biowarfare-articles/Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Twinkie
When experts go ahead a 100% MSM tide, they're much more likely to be sincere. They may be entirely wrong, but they're probably being honest.Replies: @silviosilver, @HA
“Not at all. The point is that when the MSM is 100% on one side, it’s difficult to know whether individuals or experts who take that position are being sincere.”
Except, they’re NOT 100% on one side. From what I can tell, that’s a ridiculous exaggeration. Wesley Clark (based on the two or so short clips of him I’ve seen) and neo-con voices in general (e.g. that uderstandingwar site) don’t really disagree from so-called “realists” like MacGregor that the Ukrainians are outmatched and the Russians have the overall advantage. He’s just using that mismatch (along with the surprising resilience the Ukrainians have shown) as justification for urging the US to give them more weapons, but as for the uderstandingwar wite, if I’m reading them correctly, they only seem willing to say that the Ukrainiains can push this conflict into a extended slog. Which isn’t a “win” by any stretch.
The one thing that MacGregor did stick his neck out on was to say that Ukraine would be completely over by about day 15, as I’ve noted, and he was completely wrong about that. But that doesn’t seem to faze you at all.
As I think you should have learned from your experience with COVID denialism, the overwhelming consensus of the mainstream — even insofar as it helped enable Fauci’s deception and flip-flop regarding masks — is no guarantee that the Mike Whitneys and other “alternatives” had a saner take on all that. Those who sided with him and the anti-vaxxers only managed to flip themselves out of the frying pan and into the fire.
Mearsheimer said back in the 80 that the Russians' offensive would not work. There official doctrine was to keep going even after being hit with battlefield nuclear weapons, which is total impossible to do in practice. Their silly ideas about ignoring losses are about to catch up with in the worst possible way. In the Charlie Rose interview of Kissinger in 2014, he said that Russia is not a superpower, has no way of regaining that status, and does not have a powerful army.
The generals and administration officials (especially Blinken)who are saying that Ukraine ought to be given much more weapons in order to stop Russian winning are actually trying to bounce America into using Ukraine for humiliating Russia with a total defeat and push back out of all Ukrainian territory occupied since 2014.Replies: @HA
https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1512939725513912323
The evidence strongly suggests that the missile was fired by the Ukrainians. Moreover, according to this Tweet the casing was marked with the phrase "For the Children" written in Russian.
https://twitter.com/CormacS63/status/1512389537179500555
If the Ukrainians fired the missile killing or wounding hundreds, but marked the casing in Russian, it seems most plausible it was intended as a deliberate false-flag to be blamed on the Russians.
I doubt whether any of our MSM will pick up on these facts. That's what I mean by a tilted media landscape.Replies: @HA
“If the Ukrainians fired the missile killing or wounding hundreds, but marked the casing in Russian, it seems most plausible it was intended as a deliberate false-flag to be blamed on the Russians. I doubt whether any of our MSM will pick up on these facts.
Or else, in perfect harmony with all the RT zombies who have for years been coming on this site wailing about the “poor shelled children of Donbass” (e.g. Karlin, though if you type “site:unz.com shelled children Donbass” or “site:RT.com shelled children Donbass” into a search engine, you can find plenty more examples), the scrawl could have been a message from soldiers that they were avenging the “poor shelled children of Donbass”.
(As I’ve noted elsewhere, the “poor shelled children of Donbass” meme has gone stale recently, like the rotting red herring that it always was, but these recruits have been out of pocket for some time, so they probably didn’t get the memo.)
Why do you have to ignore a perfectly obvious and reasonable explanation like that so as to immediately go false-flag? If that explanation somehow just slipped your mind, then you need to listen to other voices than Hanania’s. Mind you, I’m not saying the probability of this being a false flag is zero, but omitting that very obvious alternate interpretation makes your (or Hanania’s) take specious.
And please don’t give me any grief about using the AtlanticCouncil website if you’re going to use a Putin stooge like Hanania for your info. The site goes on to say, with abundant links, that:
And FWIW, one of the more zombified trolls on your site had been clamoring about Kramatorks for days before this happened. He’s not particularly bright, so he probably got it from his propaganda well.
Again, that doesn’t 100% prove or disprove anything, but overall it’s a lot more comprehensive than some Tweet from Hanania which amounts to the usual Russian grasping-at-straws (well, of course they’re bombing themselves!)
(1) Who actually fired the missile. Based upon the evidence of serial numbers, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it was the Ukrainian forces. The video clip in the Hanania Tweet was from an Italian TV crew I think, and someone also sent me this much longer list of Ukrainian serial numbers from a pro-Russian website:
https://southfront.org/last-point-in-kievs-lies-about-bloody-attack-on-civilians-with-tochka-u-missile/
(2) So the missile was very likely Ukrainian. My first thought was that they probably just accidentally hit the wrong target or something. But if the Ukrainians wrote "For the Children" in Russian on the casing, it was almost certainly a deliberate false-flag attack intended to kill large numbers of Ukrainian civilians and have it blamed on the Russians.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/12i/ukrmissile2.jpg
Deliberately massacring your own civilians in order to blame the Russians really seems like a pretty serious war-crime to me, and the main reason they (correctly) thought they could get away with it is that their side has such overwhelming dominance in global media and propaganda.Replies: @HA, @Antiwar7
Exactly. But there are two entirely separate issues involved.
(1) Who actually fired the missile. Based upon the evidence of serial numbers, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it was the Ukrainian forces. The video clip in the Hanania Tweet was from an Italian TV crew I think, and someone also sent me this much longer list of Ukrainian serial numbers from a pro-Russian website:
https://southfront.org/last-point-in-kievs-lies-about-bloody-attack-on-civilians-with-tochka-u-missile/
(2) So the missile was very likely Ukrainian. My first thought was that they probably just accidentally hit the wrong target or something. But if the Ukrainians wrote “For the Children” in Russian on the casing, it was almost certainly a deliberate false-flag attack intended to kill large numbers of Ukrainian civilians and have it blamed on the Russians.
Deliberately massacring your own civilians in order to blame the Russians really seems like a pretty serious war-crime to me, and the main reason they (correctly) thought they could get away with it is that their side has such overwhelming dominance in global media and propaganda.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/europe/russia-conscripts-fighting-ukraine-intl/index.html You want another one? That "there will be no additional call-up of reservists." Russia is mobilizing additional forces, including reserves as well as "peacekeeping forces" deployed elsewhere such as Georgia.
ALL governments and militaries tell lies in wartime, to varying extents - including our own. Whether Russians, Ukrainians, or us in Iraq, the number of tanks destroyed is going to be fairly low. AFVs in general, even thinner-skinned APCs and IFVs don't get destroyed in large numbers except in extremely fierce, large-scale battles with lots of other AFVs and next generation ATGMs, CAS, attack helos, etc. Most vehicles lost in wars are going to be jeep-type vehicles, Humvees, recovery vehicles, transport trucks, etc. Most people who don't know much about military operations fixate on shiny, big things such as tanks and IFVs, but trucks are vital to military operations and they are extremely vulnerable. Such vehicle losses are very notable, because they tell you about the logistical capability of a given force as well as its ability to control the supply lines behind the forward edge of battle. Yes, but "eventually" can be a rather long time, especially since Russia's government has made Russian casualty figures a state secret... as opposed to our war dead in Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you remember how gleefully (with crocodile tears) our mainstream media was running a daily tally every time an American service personnel died? I was a defense contractor for like 5 minutes years and year ago. I didn't last long, because I wouldn't sell out my country's interests to the PRC (which my employer did). I wrote a little bit about it on Unz somewhere.Replies: @Ron Unz
Well, I’m glad my recollection wasn’t totally mistaken. If you wrote something about that and I read it here, I think you can understand the reasons for my recent mistake. I don’t normally encounter you much on this website, so it’s possible that you’ve subsequently discussed all your other business activities and I never saw it.
Absolutely, but my impression is that the Russians seem to lie much, much less than the Ukrainians, mostly because they just keep silent.
I’d hardly regard your examples as huge lies. Putin had made some feel-good public statement saying that conscripts weren’t involved in the Russian invasion, and it turns out that some were. Maybe the numbers were pretty small so Putin was just misinformed. If (say) the invasion force was 95% professional, that would be easy to understand.
Meanwhile, there seems overwhelming evidence that the Ukrainians deliberately massacred their own civilians in that missile attack, hoping to blame it on the Russians. I’d say that’s a much, much bigger lie.
One reason I became irritated with you is that you’re obviously an intelligent individual with a strong academic background and based upon your statements, a considerable sense of American patriotism. But for whatever reasons, you seem extremely reluctant to seriously look into matters of tremendous important to this country, perhaps because you’re quietly concerned that the answers you find might be too uncomfortable.
For example, the Covid epidemic has now killed well over a million Americans, and for two years I’ve been pointing to the strong perhaps even overwhelming evidence that it was probably the result of an American biowarfare attack against China (and Iran). Given the devastation our society has suffered, I think anyone even slightly patriotic should regard it as a significant matter. Here’s a short video interview I did a month or two laying out the case. Together with a couple of others, it’s now been viewed over 350,000 times:
Video Link
And here are the articles in my series:
https://www.unz.com/page/covid-biowarfare-articles/
(1) Who actually fired the missile. Based upon the evidence of serial numbers, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it was the Ukrainian forces. The video clip in the Hanania Tweet was from an Italian TV crew I think, and someone also sent me this much longer list of Ukrainian serial numbers from a pro-Russian website:
https://southfront.org/last-point-in-kievs-lies-about-bloody-attack-on-civilians-with-tochka-u-missile/
(2) So the missile was very likely Ukrainian. My first thought was that they probably just accidentally hit the wrong target or something. But if the Ukrainians wrote "For the Children" in Russian on the casing, it was almost certainly a deliberate false-flag attack intended to kill large numbers of Ukrainian civilians and have it blamed on the Russians.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/12i/ukrmissile2.jpg
Deliberately massacring your own civilians in order to blame the Russians really seems like a pretty serious war-crime to me, and the main reason they (correctly) thought they could get away with it is that their side has such overwhelming dominance in global media and propaganda.Replies: @HA, @Antiwar7
“Based upon the evidence of serial numbers, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it was the Ukrainian forces.”
As my earlier comment noted, BOTH sides are using Tochka-U missiles. (“While it might not be on official lists of Russian equipment, researchers previously spotted footage of Tochka-U systems being deployed in Belarus over the course of March, disproving Russia’s claims of not using them.”) Why do these “gotcha” sources you find so persuasive fail to show us the ID numbers of the Tochka-U systems the Russians use? You think there won’t be any 9M79-1 ID’s on those? Why are you so certain?
If you buy into the (false) claim that Russia doesn’t use Tochka-U systems, then making hay of the ID numbers amounts to overkill. In that case, the very fact that this missile is a Tochka-U is enough to implicate the Ukrainians. Whereas if you’re honest or at least open-minded enough to admit that Russians also use the same systems — as were previously spotted in Belarus in March — then someone needs to show us what THOSE specific ID numbers are on the Russian side.
I realize that even then, the Russians can just say “The Ukrainians most have gotten the missile from one of the depots that our troops abandoned, this is still their doing”, and it’s true that a fair amount of Russian equipment has subsequently come under Ukrainian control, maybe even some stashes of these rockets. But if they were to say that, that would implicitly affirm the slapdash nature of Russian logistics in this war, so I’m guessing they’ll be hesitant.
And why do you simply dismiss the other supporting evidence, e.g. the fact that the Russians themselves celebrated this hit, and then pulled the PR back once they realized that all they did was wipe out a bunch of civilians? (See the earlier section with the claim “Russian Telegram channel Siloviki prematurely published information that Russians are ‘working on a cluster of armed forces of Ukraine at Kramatorsk railway station’ and celebrated casualties among Ukrainian combatants.”)
It’s like someone has attached a set of oddly selective blinkers on you. If the narrative doesn’t conform to your assumption that the US or its supporters are not to blame, your head is able to spin like a roulette wheel coming up with possible alternate scenarios. But the minute someone gives you a reason to believe the “non-MSM” version of things — even if it is as facile as something like this — you stop questioning. Your normal “question-everything” approach suddenly stalls.
You didn’t need me to ask why the Russian ID’s on these Tochka-U systems were absent. You didn’t need me to point out that this is only one portion of the evidence that points to the Russians. You’re more than smart enough to have asked those questions yourself. But for some reason, you didn’t.
That’s exactly the kind of blinkered thinking that led the anti-vaxxers into the fire during COVID. You were able to resist that. But this kind of conspiracy-mongering is maybe closer to your heart, and so you’re less able to be objective. That’s my hunch, anyway. Again, I’m not saying this is definitively the work of Russians. Fog of war, and whatnot — I get that. But by the same token, assuming the Ukrainians are more likely to be the culprits is really pushing it. THAT should trigger your something-isn’t-right radar.
What nonsense. The Russian army west of Kiev was unable to even hold its positiona nd nearly got surrounded. Wesley Clark and every other US military intel, diplomat or MSM expert and all MSM commentator are saying that Ukraine has triumphed against the odds so far, but they are lying because they understand in the real world the Russian army sent into Ukraine hcould not have suffered around 30% killed or no longer fit for duty casualties if it outnumbered or outmatched WUkraine’s superbly trained and equipped military, which had 14 billion invested in it from abroad, and far more combat experience than Russia’s. Fantastic as it seems, Russia has been unable to take any Ukrainian city, and inched forward are considerable cost on the eastern fronm The same battered formations forced to retreat from are after driving hundreds of miles going to be thrown without rest or refitting into a drive to cut off the Donbass where the best units of the Ukrainiansarmy are dug in waiting for them all zeroed on on the roads the SP guns and tanks must take.
Mearsheimer said back in the 80 that the Russians’ offensive would not work. There official doctrine was to keep going even after being hit with battlefield nuclear weapons, which is total impossible to do in practice. Their silly ideas about ignoring losses are about to catch up with in the worst possible way. In the Charlie Rose interview of Kissinger in 2014, he said that Russia is not a superpower, has no way of regaining that status, and does not have a powerful army.
The generals and administration officials (especially Blinken)who are saying that Ukraine ought to be given much more weapons in order to stop Russian winning are actually trying to bounce America into using Ukraine for humiliating Russia with a total defeat and push back out of all Ukrainian territory occupied since 2014.
I'd hardly regard your examples as huge lies. Putin had made some feel-good public statement saying that conscripts weren't involved in the Russian invasion, and it turns out that some were. Maybe the numbers were pretty small so Putin was just misinformed. If (say) the invasion force was 95% professional, that would be easy to understand.
Meanwhile, there seems overwhelming evidence that the Ukrainians deliberately massacred their own civilians in that missile attack, hoping to blame it on the Russians. I'd say that's a much, much bigger lie.
One reason I became irritated with you is that you're obviously an intelligent individual with a strong academic background and based upon your statements, a considerable sense of American patriotism. But for whatever reasons, you seem extremely reluctant to seriously look into matters of tremendous important to this country, perhaps because you're quietly concerned that the answers you find might be too uncomfortable.
For example, the Covid epidemic has now killed well over a million Americans, and for two years I've been pointing to the strong perhaps even overwhelming evidence that it was probably the result of an American biowarfare attack against China (and Iran). Given the devastation our society has suffered, I think anyone even slightly patriotic should regard it as a significant matter. Here's a short video interview I did a month or two laying out the case. Together with a couple of others, it's now been viewed over 350,000 times:
https://rumble.com/embed/vsi3d0/
And here are the articles in my series:
https://www.unz.com/page/covid-biowarfare-articles/Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Twinkie
You’re so creepy!
I'd hardly regard your examples as huge lies. Putin had made some feel-good public statement saying that conscripts weren't involved in the Russian invasion, and it turns out that some were. Maybe the numbers were pretty small so Putin was just misinformed. If (say) the invasion force was 95% professional, that would be easy to understand.
Meanwhile, there seems overwhelming evidence that the Ukrainians deliberately massacred their own civilians in that missile attack, hoping to blame it on the Russians. I'd say that's a much, much bigger lie.
One reason I became irritated with you is that you're obviously an intelligent individual with a strong academic background and based upon your statements, a considerable sense of American patriotism. But for whatever reasons, you seem extremely reluctant to seriously look into matters of tremendous important to this country, perhaps because you're quietly concerned that the answers you find might be too uncomfortable.
For example, the Covid epidemic has now killed well over a million Americans, and for two years I've been pointing to the strong perhaps even overwhelming evidence that it was probably the result of an American biowarfare attack against China (and Iran). Given the devastation our society has suffered, I think anyone even slightly patriotic should regard it as a significant matter. Here's a short video interview I did a month or two laying out the case. Together with a couple of others, it's now been viewed over 350,000 times:
https://rumble.com/embed/vsi3d0/
And here are the articles in my series:
https://www.unz.com/page/covid-biowarfare-articles/Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Twinkie
That’s not what happened. You made the exact same ad hominem and accusation – that my supposed defense contracting business is affecting my judgment and independent analytic ability – years ago. And I corrected you then as I just did that I am not a defense contractor: https://www.unz.com/isteve/clint-eastwoods-american-sniper/#comment-867241
And I responded:
That was 7 years ago. But, I don’t begrudge you not remembering all this (*I* kinda forgot). What I have a problem with is you continuing to try to “profile” me and using ad hominem and internet psych-analyze rather than arguing the matter at hand on its own (“Well, you must have financial interests at issue here and must be deliberately not seeing things you should, blah, blah, blah”).
With all due respect, this is goal post-moving. You wrote that you were not aware of the Russians telling any blatant lies. I gave you two examples – two very blatant lies. Putin said that the war (or “special military operation”) is being waged by contract professionals with no conscripts. That was a blatant lie. He said that no reserves would be mobilized to fight the conflict. That’s another blatant lie. The fact is that, as much as the Ukrainians have the incentive to exaggerate Russian losses, the Russians have the incentive to minimize and undercount their own losses. My crude estimate is based on neither such suspect claim. But yours is.
Whey are you “extremely reluctant to seriously look into matters of tremendous importance to this country” such as American corporate sectors’ collusion with the PRC? What about the massive influx of Indians into our IT sector and all the nice suburbs? Is it “perhaps because you’re quietly concerned that the answers you find might be too uncomfortable”?
Or is it simply because that’s not an area you find important enough for your attention or simply not something you are interested in? I repeat: I have my own interest areas and hobby horses. That I don’t share yours is not an indication that I am not serious or not patriotic.
And I read quite a bit of your writing. Some of it is interesting, some of it is plausible (and some both), but others are just wacky. I have a very high regard for your commitment to free speech and free inquiry, and you are the host of this site here (which I consider very valuable – and not in a financial sense, but for dissident discourse), so I don’t want to be insulting, so let’s leave it at that.
And, in any case, none of this has to do with Russian KIA estimates.
(1) Who actually fired the missile. Based upon the evidence of serial numbers, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it was the Ukrainian forces. The video clip in the Hanania Tweet was from an Italian TV crew I think, and someone also sent me this much longer list of Ukrainian serial numbers from a pro-Russian website:
https://southfront.org/last-point-in-kievs-lies-about-bloody-attack-on-civilians-with-tochka-u-missile/
(2) So the missile was very likely Ukrainian. My first thought was that they probably just accidentally hit the wrong target or something. But if the Ukrainians wrote "For the Children" in Russian on the casing, it was almost certainly a deliberate false-flag attack intended to kill large numbers of Ukrainian civilians and have it blamed on the Russians.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/12i/ukrmissile2.jpg
Deliberately massacring your own civilians in order to blame the Russians really seems like a pretty serious war-crime to me, and the main reason they (correctly) thought they could get away with it is that their side has such overwhelming dominance in global media and propaganda.Replies: @HA, @Antiwar7
Also, isn’t the evidence pretty clear, as to the origin of the missile, by drawing a line from the warhead impact through the discarded engine? That line only went though Ukrainian government held territory.
Mearsheimer said back in the 80 that the Russians' offensive would not work. There official doctrine was to keep going even after being hit with battlefield nuclear weapons, which is total impossible to do in practice. Their silly ideas about ignoring losses are about to catch up with in the worst possible way. In the Charlie Rose interview of Kissinger in 2014, he said that Russia is not a superpower, has no way of regaining that status, and does not have a powerful army.
The generals and administration officials (especially Blinken)who are saying that Ukraine ought to be given much more weapons in order to stop Russian winning are actually trying to bounce America into using Ukraine for humiliating Russia with a total defeat and push back out of all Ukrainian territory occupied since 2014.Replies: @HA
“Wesley Clark and every other US military intel, diplomat or MSM expert and all MSM commentator are saying that Ukraine has triumphed against the odds so far, but they are lying…”
Ukraine has definitely “triumphed against the odds” in the strict sense of having beaten the spread and done a whole lot better than what most of the odds-makers were predicting. That’s not the same as saying they’re going to win without more Western support, which is what I believe Wesley Clark is saying (again, based on two short interviews I only caught because I was standing next to a TV tuned to CNN).
“The generals and administration officials (especially Blinken)who are saying that Ukraine ought to be given much more weapons in order to stop Russian winning are actually trying to bounce America into using Ukraine for humiliating Russia with a total defeat…”
I’ll keep my fingers crossed, then. Mind you, I have no particular interest in humiliating Russia, but if the only alternative is to keep letting Moscow Gollum be Moscow Gollum, so be it. And really, humiliation couldn’t happen to a more deserving fella, so there’s that.
You know, maybe it’s time to let Kazakhstan be the headliner as far as whatever the former Soviet Union was. Apart from that failed coup, they just kind of keep to themselves and do a really good job of staying out of the headlines. That’s really the kind of future Russia should aim for.
Why didn't Ukraine just do what they agreed in the Minsk accords to and give the breakaway eastern region autonomy while nominally still within Ukraine? Zelensky wanted to do that, but the integral nationalists would not let him. Even if Russia calls off the foredoomed failure in Donbass and tries something in Moldavia before settling for a cease-fire, Ukraine is going to be able to demand unlimited arms and support by saying that it will have to develop its own nuclear weapons' otherwise. Russia is never going to forgive the West and even if he wanted to, no Russia leader will be able to have any kind of even unspoken alliance with America against China.Replies: @HA
Compare the respective fractions of the captured vehicles (to the total lost by each side) between the Russians and the Ukrainians. What does that tell you?Replies: @Jack D
Not getting your point. Raw numbers count, not %s.
For example, in tanks, Oryx gives the Russian losses as
476, of which destroyed: 236, damaged: 8, abandoned: 40, captured: 192
and the Ukrainian as:
103, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 1, abandoned: 9, captured: 51
So the Ukrainians have lost, one way or another 103 tanks and have capture 192 Russian tanks in working order so they are 89 tanks ahead of when the war started. And 40% of Russian losses were captured vs 50% of Ukrainian – what can we infer from this slight difference?
For example, in tanks, Oryx gives the Russian losses as
476, of which destroyed: 236, damaged: 8, abandoned: 40, captured: 192
and the Ukrainian as:
103, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 1, abandoned: 9, captured: 51
So the Ukrainians have lost, one way or another 103 tanks and have capture 192 Russian tanks in working order so they are 89 tanks ahead of when the war started. And 40% of Russian losses were captured vs 50% of Ukrainian - what can we infer from this slight difference?Replies: @Twinkie
Of course you don’t. You are busy playing kindergarten arithmetic-level of analysis.
Look at the categories of “lost” equipment: destroyed, damaged, abandoned, and captured. Now think of the likely circumstances of the categories. Can you imagine how they might differ?
I’ll spell it out for you. Generally, destroyed or damaged means the operators of the said equipment and vehicles were in combat. Abandoned/captured means that the crew fled or surrendered. A high proportion of the latter in comparison to the total “lost” count means a high proportion of crews fled or surrendered instead of suffering damage while fighting. In other words, it’s a rough way of assessing the morale of a fighting force (conversely, a high morale fighting force might suffer large losses when fighting against the odds, but those losses will be from destruction or damage in combat rather than being captured intact).
That’s not a “slight” difference.
What this tells you is that you should be cautious about thinking that the Russians are demoralized and that the Ukrainians have high morale. Obviously, this is a proxy measure (you can’t actually measure morale, because it’s intangible), so you should take that with a grain of salt, but it should make you pause about any kind of triumphalism (“Russians are fleeing in fear, Ukrainians are bravely winning!”).
Proportions tell a lot raw numbers don’t. For example, the proportion of AFVs vs. trucks lost tells you about where the combat is taking place and what kind of tactics are being used (by the opponent). It also tells you what kind of capacity is being degraded.
But my common sense thought here would be that attacking and defending are not the same. The whole point of planning an attack--rather than just rumbling out and asking for decisive battle--would be that you are trying to put the defender in an unfavorable position where he has to surrender troops/material or see them destroyed. (I.e. catch him with his pants down.)
I would expect if the Russian attack had been wildly successful you'd see really high numbers/rates of captured troops/equipment as Ukrainians realized they were cut off or simply in an indefensible situation. So i take the 50% as "some of that has gone on".
But i would not generally expect the force of a superior attacker to have high rates of surrender. There would be times where they push and the defender does not yield and that particular thrust fails with high casualties. But i wouldn't expect high rates of surrender in a well planned attack by a superior attacker.
Again, i'm not a military guy and do not pretend to be. And i'm paying basically no attention to the specifics of this stupid, disgusting war.
A few things seem pretty clear
1) It hasn't gone as Putin expected.
2) The Russian military isn't as good as advertised.
3) Nonetheless Putin can slug away and grab up as much of Ukraine as he wants--it just isn't going to be fast or pretty.
And geopolitically ... this is a disaster. A huge debacle for those of us who hate globohomo and the treasonous Western "elites" who sell out their people and nations. Those people are re-energized by opposing Putin's ugly old style imperial thuggery. And it's a distraction from the critical issue of those elites continuing to allow/encourage the destruction of their nations by mass invasions across their borders.Replies: @Twinkie
Perhaps you'll understand my position better if it apply it to your own racialist area of focus. When people get up and ferociously denounce "racism," maybe they believe it and maybe they don't. But when someone publicly takes a strongly "racist" position, I think he's probably being honest. Maybe he's right and maybe he's strong, but he's honest.Replies: @silviosilver
I don’t really disagree with that, except that I wouldn’t use the words “I can’t see why they’d disagree with the MSM unless they believed what they were saying.” It’s actually truer of taking a “racist” position, since someone who didn’t believe that racial differences were real or that white interests mattered would have very little incentive to pretend he believes in those things – except perhaps if he thought there was too much racial harmony (fat chance!) and he wanted to stir up some trouble.
But in the case of international relations, there are manifold incentives to lie about which side is winning a war, so the mere fact that Ritter contradicts the MSM line is not nearly enough to convince me that he’s definitely telling the truth. And he wouldn’t need to have been bribed in order to lie. He could well have personal emotional motives for wanting to present a false picture. People can be very weird when their emotions get involved.
Meanwhile, many of the people quoted on the other side are the old Iraq War Neocons like Victoria Nuland and her circle.Replies: @silviosilver, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
Moral fairy tales are your guide, that is why you can not see the significance of nary a major Ukrainian city has so far being captured despite the Russian army suffering tens of thousands of casualties; the probable outcome is a complete defeat of Russia, which will be followed by chaos. At least with Putin, someone is in control of Russians nuclear weapons so there is one person who can be talked to about them, and the debate can be whether Russia is the main threat to the West.
The lack of any threat to Kiev will make it possible fir the Ukrainians to use their internal lines to send strong forces East to attack any Russian tank drive closing the back door on the dug in Ukrainian army in Donbass , So the Russian pincers from the northern and southern wings of the Russian offensive, which have been literally decimated in the fighting already, will be getting attacked on the east and west flanks well as on their north or south axis of advance Artillery pinpointing is already GPS zeroed in on every point on the route the Russians will predictably have to take and they will be up against a thousand switchblade drones including Javelin warhead ones and much ese including real time intel that the US is going to help with. The Russians will be going into the lion’s den.
Russsia realising its place in the world is not even what Obama announced in 2014 (that Russia was only a regional power), has bearing on its Kissinger’s contention that Putin/ Russia’s actions against Ukraine were attempts to get the rest of the world to treat Russia like a superpower, which it was not. When Russians realises their country is in truth not even capable of handling things as a regional power and Biden was serious when scoffing at it as ‘Upper Volta’, that will be a force for stability will it?
Why didn’t Ukraine just do what they agreed in the Minsk accords to and give the breakaway eastern region autonomy while nominally still within Ukraine? Zelensky wanted to do that, but the integral nationalists would not let him. Even if Russia calls off the foredoomed failure in Donbass and tries something in Moldavia before settling for a cease-fire, Ukraine is going to be able to demand unlimited arms and support by saying that it will have to develop its own nuclear weapons’ otherwise. Russia is never going to forgive the West and even if he wanted to, no Russia leader will be able to have any kind of even unspoken alliance with America against China.
I have six Jewish guys I consider friends. Only one married another Jew, and he’s been left in the reproductive shade by the shiksa lovers, 12-2. At least he has a son.
At least the Jews have the ultra Orthos doing the yeoman reproductive work for the rest of the slackers!
Putin seems to be doing a good job of destroying the young wogs of Russia in Mr. Putin’s War.
FIFY
https://inews.co.uk/news/putin-accused-using-troops-ethnic-minority-backgrounds-as-cannon-fodder-1539841
So even a loss is a win!
Another exception:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Washington
Sure, if it were just Ritter I’d be suspicious and probably wouldn’t believe him. But it’s also Mearsheimer, Macgregor, McGovern, Matlock, Stephen Cohen, and other experts. I just can’t see why they’d all be lying or taking their positions for bizarre emotional reasons. They’re all sober experts and what they say makes sense to me.
Meanwhile, many of the people quoted on the other side are the old Iraq War Neocons like Victoria Nuland and her circle.
https://www.factsandarts.com/current-affairs
I should be interested in an informed critique of the site. In the meantime I am about to spend time on its many Ukraine war related articles. Sorry there's no video to meet your new enthusiasm.
I was sent a link to a lament about what was happening to Russian Studies and in the course of trying to assess its provenance I came across a website I ad never heard of but clearly has some high profile well regarded authors even if one may not find much pro Putin stuff.
https://www.factsandarts.com/current-affairs
I should be interested in an informed critique of the site. In the meantime I am about to spend time on its many Ukraine war related articles. Sorry there's no video to meet your new enthusiasm.
Why didn't Ukraine just do what they agreed in the Minsk accords to and give the breakaway eastern region autonomy while nominally still within Ukraine? Zelensky wanted to do that, but the integral nationalists would not let him. Even if Russia calls off the foredoomed failure in Donbass and tries something in Moldavia before settling for a cease-fire, Ukraine is going to be able to demand unlimited arms and support by saying that it will have to develop its own nuclear weapons' otherwise. Russia is never going to forgive the West and even if he wanted to, no Russia leader will be able to have any kind of even unspoken alliance with America against China.Replies: @HA
“Why didn’t Ukraine just do what they agreed in the Minsk accords to and give the breakaway eastern region autonomy while nominally still within Ukraine?”
Because it wouldn’t have mattered. Putin had everything he needed even after Yanukovych was kicked out. The replacement still had no desire to cozy up to NATO, the Crimea lease was secure, and all those pro-Russian blocs in the East were there to mess up any Ukrainian referendum that anyone might have offered in the future regarding NATO.
He had it all, it still wasn’t enough. As he has clearly “shut-up-he-explained” since, Ukraine is not a real country and Ukrainians are just Russians deluded by neo-Nazism, so why should they be allowed to exisst? And once the Overton window he sets is allowed to shift past the “injustice” of Ukraine having been allowed statehood (once Ukraine is comfortably Russian again), it would shift towards the “injustice” of Poland ever having been allowed to exist as a free nation again, because any country with that long a history of anti-Russian animus simply cannot be allowed to exist outside the narrow confines of a Moscow leash. And then on to Germany, with some similar blather about the Baltics or Moldova somewhere along the way. Get a clue. It was all over once he swiped Crimea set up Donbass, and like I said, that was well before Ukraine was anywhere near being able to pass a referendum on joining NATO. Once he let loose the little green men, at that point (as Rob cleverly put it), the only agreement that Putin was really offering the Ukrainians was not to kill them, and by then they had no reason to trust him on even that much. That’s usually how negotiations go when one of the parties is holding a gun to the head of the other. If you and your other fanboys can’t deal with that, it’s not my problem.
I’m not a military guy and don’t try and play one on the internet.
But my common sense thought here would be that attacking and defending are not the same. The whole point of planning an attack–rather than just rumbling out and asking for decisive battle–would be that you are trying to put the defender in an unfavorable position where he has to surrender troops/material or see them destroyed. (I.e. catch him with his pants down.)
I would expect if the Russian attack had been wildly successful you’d see really high numbers/rates of captured troops/equipment as Ukrainians realized they were cut off or simply in an indefensible situation. So i take the 50% as “some of that has gone on”.
But i would not generally expect the force of a superior attacker to have high rates of surrender. There would be times where they push and the defender does not yield and that particular thrust fails with high casualties. But i wouldn’t expect high rates of surrender in a well planned attack by a superior attacker.
Again, i’m not a military guy and do not pretend to be. And i’m paying basically no attention to the specifics of this stupid, disgusting war.
A few things seem pretty clear
1) It hasn’t gone as Putin expected.
2) The Russian military isn’t as good as advertised.
3) Nonetheless Putin can slug away and grab up as much of Ukraine as he wants–it just isn’t going to be fast or pretty.
And geopolitically … this is a disaster. A huge debacle for those of us who hate globohomo and the treasonous Western “elites” who sell out their people and nations. Those people are re-energized by opposing Putin’s ugly old style imperial thuggery. And it’s a distraction from the critical issue of those elites continuing to allow/encourage the destruction of their nations by mass invasions across their borders.
Against determined and courageous defenders with good tactical proficiency over difficult terrain, the attacker is going to suffer a disproportionately greater casualty. There is just no way around it. Where the calculus turns favorably for the attacker is when the coherence of the defense breaks, the attacker can race to the rear of the defenders, and pockets of defenders can be isolated and crushed. In this, modern battles are not all that different than ancient or medieval battles, in which the overwhelming majority of casualties occurred in flight/pursuit, not in the actual battle itself. The only exception to this rule would be when one side has a total control of the information over the battle space and has a complete control over the air (and space) and can rain down lots of precision-guided munitions. There is only one power on this earth that comes close to that description - the United States of America.
Meanwhile, many of the people quoted on the other side are the old Iraq War Neocons like Victoria Nuland and her circle.Replies: @silviosilver, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
You’re broadening the scope of the discussion now (which is sort of my fault, because I used the term “international relations” when I should have opted for the simpler “war”). With the inclusion of names like Mearsheimer and Stephen Cohen, this is no longer about the progress of the war and events on the ground (which the former hasn’t commented on, and the latter can’t because he’s dead), but about particular views of international relations and history, which are more about the interpretation of facts rather than the truth or falsity of factual claims. In these cases, I have no problem believing either that experts the MSM favors or experts the MSM shuns, in so far as they are articulating their world views rather than discussing the facticity of a given incident, are both telling the truth as they see it.
Anyway, it’s too much trouble to check back to this thread, so you can have the last word if you wish.
Jack D,
Well, I just noticed that kaganovitch says that you have self-identified as a lawyer.
Which means my main guess was spot on: you make a living by using words to manipulate other people, not by dealing with external physical reality.
As to your math scores, I went to Caltech, where half of us (including me) had an 800 on SAT math, back before they renormed the scores.
Somehow, I doubt that your math scores were at a level I would consider good…
For twenty years I've been saying that if we'd simply rounded up and summarily butchered all the Neocons together with their wives and children, we'd have a lot more peace and quiet in America. But nobody took my sensible advice, so here we are now...Replies: @Anonymous
That’s funny. But if anyone else had said that publicly, they’d be hung up as anti-semites.
Of course, we know you’re kidding, but you’re also not wrong. And it’s probably why they do this sort of thing in primitive societies and the old days. It’s barbaric, but effective.
But my common sense thought here would be that attacking and defending are not the same. The whole point of planning an attack--rather than just rumbling out and asking for decisive battle--would be that you are trying to put the defender in an unfavorable position where he has to surrender troops/material or see them destroyed. (I.e. catch him with his pants down.)
I would expect if the Russian attack had been wildly successful you'd see really high numbers/rates of captured troops/equipment as Ukrainians realized they were cut off or simply in an indefensible situation. So i take the 50% as "some of that has gone on".
But i would not generally expect the force of a superior attacker to have high rates of surrender. There would be times where they push and the defender does not yield and that particular thrust fails with high casualties. But i wouldn't expect high rates of surrender in a well planned attack by a superior attacker.
Again, i'm not a military guy and do not pretend to be. And i'm paying basically no attention to the specifics of this stupid, disgusting war.
A few things seem pretty clear
1) It hasn't gone as Putin expected.
2) The Russian military isn't as good as advertised.
3) Nonetheless Putin can slug away and grab up as much of Ukraine as he wants--it just isn't going to be fast or pretty.
And geopolitically ... this is a disaster. A huge debacle for those of us who hate globohomo and the treasonous Western "elites" who sell out their people and nations. Those people are re-energized by opposing Putin's ugly old style imperial thuggery. And it's a distraction from the critical issue of those elites continuing to allow/encourage the destruction of their nations by mass invasions across their borders.Replies: @Twinkie
Absolutely! You are the only one who has brought this up (I didn’t, because I didn’t want to complicate things for those who lack knowledge in this and wanted to stick to more comprehensible, quantitative framework). More below.
Traditionally, it was often held that attackers needed at least 3-to-1 advantage in materiel and manpower to attack successfully. Even now, attacking highly defensible and fortified position requires a lot of men, equipment, and ordnance… and the willingness to incur casualties.
Against determined and courageous defenders with good tactical proficiency over difficult terrain, the attacker is going to suffer a disproportionately greater casualty. There is just no way around it. Where the calculus turns favorably for the attacker is when the coherence of the defense breaks, the attacker can race to the rear of the defenders, and pockets of defenders can be isolated and crushed. In this, modern battles are not all that different than ancient or medieval battles, in which the overwhelming majority of casualties occurred in flight/pursuit, not in the actual battle itself. The only exception to this rule would be when one side has a total control of the information over the battle space and has a complete control over the air (and space) and can rain down lots of precision-guided munitions. There is only one power on this earth that comes close to that description – the United States of America.
This woman may be telling the truth. She may be lying. It would be far from the first time that a government at war has gone to a lot of trouble to fake an atrocity.
And I think you know that.
The reason I believe that the Ukrainian soldiers committed serious war crimes by shooting Russian POWs in cold blood is this investigation by the BBC: it is very hard after reading that to see how it could be fake.
But before reading that, I just did not know.
And that is how any honest person must approach almost all of the claims about war crimes.
This of course does not apply to you.Replies: @Wizard of Oz
Your mention of the BBC makes me think you might value the information in this
https://www.bbc.com/news/60981238
It pretty well kills the compromised shill Scott Ritter’s version that the Bucha killings were all Ukrainian killings of alleged collaborators. Of course some of those killed by Russians might have been caught in the act of sending messages about Russian positions.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
If you are still treating ScottRitter as a “high-credibility military expert” I can’t take anything for granted in respect of the evidence that may have moved you to believe the/a Russian version of the Bucha killings. Your references to what Jack D was focusing on suggest that he might have posted this
Is that what you regard as incompetent and wrong….. even after further reports of rotting pigs and varying temperatures which seem to havecexhausted your curiosity or patience?
I forgot to mention that it is certainly possible that some of the civilians killed might have been using cell phones and suspected of a ting as enemy spotters.
Well, Scott Ritter just got banned from Twitter, presumably because he was too credible in his criticism. I listened to his two hour interview by the Duran people this morning, and he seems to really know his stuff. I'd highly recommend it:
https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY
Regarding the supposed Bucha Massacre that you found so convincing, Nick Griffin just sent me his article for republication:
https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/
Among the many, many points he makes, the supposed satellite images show the dead bodies had been lying on the ground since Mar 9-11, namely for almost THREE WEEKS before anyone noticed them. Dead bodies lying in the road for three weeks undergo decomposition of which there were absolutely no signs.
Apparently, the incompetent Bucha Hoaxers later noticed this problem so the satellite imaging people shifted their dates by a couple of weeks, but I checked the original NYT article that you had cited as absolute proof and it definitely claimed Mar 9-11.
As anyone who reads my American Pravda series soon discovers, there's been an enormous amount of "false history" introduced to our Official Narrative over the last 100 years, and the particularly incompetent false-flag incident of the Bucha Massacre is just a tiniest sliver of it, quickly uncovered because of the Internet and Youtube.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @utu, @Twinkie, @HA, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
More on who is telling the truth about Bucha. It seems that Indians are now well informed in a way that they could not be when Grozny was destroyed by the Russians and, indeed, one TV station has four journalists in Ukraine. I have excerpted a passage from an excellent FT interview Podcast which supports the view that there really have been Russian massacres such as what has been illustrated at Buchs. The podcast is here
Ukraine and the global south – https://on.ft.com/3FeBm89 via @FT
and the excerpt in which the Indian participant is answering Gideon Rachman’s question is here:
A truly horrifying Tweet was sent to me by a well informed person who believes it is not faked.
Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) tweeted at 6:13 pm on Wed, May 04, 2022:
Ukrainian army released a tapped phone call between a Russian soldier and his mother. The soldier describes excited how he tortured and killed Ukrainians, and says he enjoys mutilating people. I have translated the calls in this #THREAD. Please be aware of extreme violence. /1
(https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1521765064386170881?t=tSbEXd3MZZtQYQFY6rnzCA&s=03)
Here is the discussion I had with the person who sent me the Tweet to help accelerate your forming a view (still tentative I trust) about the genuiness of the alleged intercept which, unfortunately the last few centuries of history would allow to be genuine.
To which I received this reply:
Me again
His last word
Any advance on 50:50? Maybe some other commenter will have something more.
Meanwhile, many of the people quoted on the other side are the old Iraq War Neocons like Victoria Nuland and her circle.Replies: @silviosilver, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
I was sent a link to a lament about what was happening to Russian Studies and in the course of trying to assess its provenance I came across a website I ad never heard of but clearly has some high profile well regarded authors even if one may not find much pro Putin stuff.
https://www.factsandarts.com/current-affairs
I should be interested in an informed critique of the site. In the meantime I am about to spend time on its many Ukraine war related articles. Sorry there’s no video to meet your new enthusiasm.
Meanwhile, many of the people quoted on the other side are the old Iraq War Neocons like Victoria Nuland and her circle.Replies: @silviosilver, @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz
I have just had the slightly disconcerting experience of having my first effort at posting a Comment (using my default Chrome browser for UR) rejected with the advice that
I was sent a link to a lament about what was happening to Russian Studies and in the course of trying to assess its provenance I came across a website I ad never heard of but clearly has some high profile well regarded authors even if one may not find much pro Putin stuff.
https://www.factsandarts.com/current-affairs
I should be interested in an informed critique of the site. In the meantime I am about to spend time on its many Ukraine war related articles. Sorry there’s no video to meet your new enthusiasm.