Though strict polling results foreshadow a Democrat presidential victory this year, one possible reason the betting markets see the race as a coin toss is that voters who approve of Trump are considerably more enthusiastic about voting than those who disapprove of him are. The following graph shows net enthusiasm by electoral category, calculated by taking “extremely/very enthusiastic (net)” and subtracting from it “not too/not at all enthusiastic (net)”:
The Russia Hoax was a dud. The impeachment sham is another dud. The Democrat nomination process has been soporific, with abysmal ratings for the last several debates after the nominating process got off to a reasonably strong start (15.3 million viewers for the first debate compared to 7.4 million for the most recent one). It’s little wonder the Democrat electorate is underwhelmed by what their party has offered them over the last three years.
Additionally, the Republican party is perceived as being considerably more united than the Democrat party is. The following graph shows perceived net party unity by partisan affiliation, calculated by taking the percentages who think each party is currently more united than normal and subtracting from that the percentages who think each party is currently less united than normal:
Even among Democrats, the perception is that the Democrats are modestly less united than the GOP (+9% net and +13% net, respectively). Independents perceive the Democrats as being significantly less united than the GOP (-22% to +16%) and Republicans see the Democrats in disarray while their own party is united (-46% to +41%).
With the DNC and its elite entourage setting their sights on Bernie Sanders and some of his more intense campaign supporters pledging to engage in civil unrest if he doesn’t get the nomination, discord in the Democrat party is likely to grow greater still in the coming months.