RCP state polling averages as of May 19, 2020:
PredictIt.org state favorites as of May 19, 2020:
Polling shows Biden winning Ohio and Florida. Bettors think Trump will hold onto both of them.
The states both polling and greenskin in the game see flipping from 2016 to 2020 are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The three Trump ripped out of the blue column and gave to Republicans for the first time since the 1980s are ideological battlegrounds. Trump’s deviation from GOP orthodoxy on trade and immigration earned him those states.
Arizona, in contrast, is an inevitable outcome of the numbers game. It is a state right now transitioning into majority-minority status. It may officially have done so once the 2020 census results are released.
On the eve of the 2016 presidential election, RCP state polling averages predicted Hillary Clinton winning 273-265. Trump ended up dominating electorally, 306-232 (faithless electors notwithstanding). If Trump gets another favorable 41-point swing, he’ll still come up far short of reelection. He needs the polls–at least at this point–to be twice as far off this time around as they were in 2016.
The optimistic take from a Trumpian perspective: If the president is able to hold what he won in 2016, he need only carry one of the three ‘surprise’ states in 2020 to win reelection. If I’m Brad Parscale, I’m expending the most time, effort, and resources in retaining Wisconsin and holding Arizona for one more election cycle. Managing that gives Trump the electoral college by a whisker, 270-268.