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The simplest explanation for why a gentle blue wave washed over the country in the 2018 mid-terms is because over twice as many people who supported Donald Trump in 2016 voted Democrat in 2018 (8.3% of Trump voters switched) as people who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 voted Republican in 2018 (3.4% of Clinton voters switched).

The Cooperative Congressional Election Surveys drill down much deeper than election-day exit polls do and they allow full cross tabs for public research. The first place I looked to try to get a handle on why voters made the switches they did was in government spending. The results are… inconclusive:

Switchers didn’t differ much in their sentiments whether they went Republican-to-Democrat or Democrat-to-Republican, and with the exception of infrastructure spending that everybody says they really, really want, fell in between voters who stayed Republican or stayed Democrat.

It is worth noting that while the differences are small, voters who went for Clinton in 2016 and then for the GOP in 2018 were modestly but consistently more in favor of increasing government spending than voters who went with Trump in 2016 and then Democrat in 2018 were. The answers, to the extent they will be found, are in the trenches of the culture war.

Another thing worth noting is that support for small government is dead, even in an abstract sense like this where precision in who gets cut and how don’t have to be made. Rock-ribbed Republicans want less welfare, by which they mean government transfers to the poor–as opposed to the medical system, the law enforcement bureaucracy, affluent academia, or union construction contracts–but on everything else they, along with everyone else, wants more, more, more spending. Whoever controls the TreasureFed should go full bore on the things they and their supporters want until the dollar breaks. Use it because we’re going to lose it, and if you don’t, the other side will.

CCES variables used: CC18_317(1-2), CC18_412(1-2), CC18_426_1-5(1-2)(4-5)

Parenthetically, in 1997 The Simpsons graciously allowed the fraudulent Stephen J. Gould to admit that he was, in fact, a fraud:

 
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  1. With an oversized intrusive government, people want it to do what they want.

    There are two worldviews clashing here.

    Those that want Nanny State Maternal Governance and those that want Paternal Governance.

    Do you want government to take care of you, or do you want a government that merely enforces rules?

    This Feminist vs Masculine War is the globalist error.

    The nationalists want Rule of Law, not Rule by Nannies.

    • Agree: Realist
    • Replies: @Not Only Wrathful
    @Dr. Doom

    The mistake is to concede the feminine to the nanny staters. Compassion can be just as much about not doing something as it is doing something.

    It is the urge to control that has gone rogue and grown exponentially. This is what happens when the two energies are out of whack and turned against each other.

    , @Anonymous
    @Dr. Doom

    Which one of those two repaves the road in front of my house?

    , @Alexander Turok
    @Dr. Doom


    The nationalists want Rule of Law, not Rule by Nannies.
     
    The past few months have shown that many of them think they can pick and choose what laws to obey, just like the Left's Peaceful Arsonists.
  2. “The first place I looked to try to get a handle on why voters made the switches they did was in government spending.”

    “Every election in a democracy is an advance auction on stolen goods.” H. L. Mencken.

    End of story.

    Regards, onebornfree

    • Agree: Adam Smith, Mark G.
  3. Gee, when I applied Occam’s Razor, my finding was that Demonrats kept finding and counting votes days after the election in a number of constituencies until they obtained the “correct” results.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    @The Alarmist

    "a number of constituencies " i.e. too small to mater.

    My application gives me "Trump didn't implement his agenda."

  4. IMHO: Trump set an agenda (border wall, rebuilding American industry and infrastructure) and then failed to live up to it, wasting his Congressional majority on tax cuts and trying to take away people’s health insurance.

    He ran as socially conservative, economically moderate (remember the Druckman graph with all the swing voters in the socially conservative-economically liberal quadrant?) and governed as socially incoherent, economically conservative (in the sense of tax cuts for very rich people).

    Accept the welfare state (within limits) and protect the American majority.

    Hawley/Carlson 2024!

    • Replies: @Realist
    @SFG


    IMHO: Trump set an agenda (border wall, rebuilding American industry and infrastructure) and then failed to live up to it, wasting his Congressional majority on tax cuts and trying to take away people’s health insurance.
     
    Excellent point.
  5. Is support for small government really dead?

    or…

    Do Americans suffer from a sort of Stockholm syndrome?

    • Replies: @Magic Dirt Resident
    @Adam Smith

    Functionally there's no difference between the two. Americans aren't voting for less government spending, the reasons why aren't that important.

  6. Incoherent, propagandized, ignorant, materially desirous, unwilling to devote extended time and effort to the accomplishment or well defined, worthy goals, ashamed of the past and afraid of the future. This is the American in 2020. It is not about party or race.

  7. @Dr. Doom
    With an oversized intrusive government, people want it to do what they want.

    There are two worldviews clashing here.

    Those that want Nanny State Maternal Governance and those that want Paternal Governance.

    Do you want government to take care of you, or do you want a government that merely enforces rules?

    This Feminist vs Masculine War is the globalist error.

    The nationalists want Rule of Law, not Rule by Nannies.

    Replies: @Not Only Wrathful, @Anonymous, @Alexander Turok

    The mistake is to concede the feminine to the nanny staters. Compassion can be just as much about not doing something as it is doing something.

    It is the urge to control that has gone rogue and grown exponentially. This is what happens when the two energies are out of whack and turned against each other.

  8. @SFG
    IMHO: Trump set an agenda (border wall, rebuilding American industry and infrastructure) and then failed to live up to it, wasting his Congressional majority on tax cuts and trying to take away people's health insurance.

    He ran as socially conservative, economically moderate (remember the Druckman graph with all the swing voters in the socially conservative-economically liberal quadrant?) and governed as socially incoherent, economically conservative (in the sense of tax cuts for very rich people).

    Accept the welfare state (within limits) and protect the American majority.

    Hawley/Carlson 2024!

    Replies: @Realist

    IMHO: Trump set an agenda (border wall, rebuilding American industry and infrastructure) and then failed to live up to it, wasting his Congressional majority on tax cuts and trying to take away people’s health insurance.

    Excellent point.

  9. Make people economically insecure and they will turn to the government for that security. If you are drowning you turn to the guy with a life saver, not the guy with an anvil.

  10. @Adam Smith
    Is support for small government really dead?

    or...

    Do Americans suffer from a sort of Stockholm syndrome?

    https://i.redd.it/6k8qvor4jco31.jpg

    Replies: @Magic Dirt Resident

    Functionally there’s no difference between the two. Americans aren’t voting for less government spending, the reasons why aren’t that important.

  11. @Dr. Doom
    With an oversized intrusive government, people want it to do what they want.

    There are two worldviews clashing here.

    Those that want Nanny State Maternal Governance and those that want Paternal Governance.

    Do you want government to take care of you, or do you want a government that merely enforces rules?

    This Feminist vs Masculine War is the globalist error.

    The nationalists want Rule of Law, not Rule by Nannies.

    Replies: @Not Only Wrathful, @Anonymous, @Alexander Turok

    Which one of those two repaves the road in front of my house?

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  12. @The Alarmist
    Gee, when I applied Occam’s Razor, my finding was that Demonrats kept finding and counting votes days after the election in a number of constituencies until they obtained the “correct” results.

    Replies: @Alexander Turok

    “a number of constituencies ” i.e. too small to mater.

    My application gives me “Trump didn’t implement his agenda.”

  13. @Dr. Doom
    With an oversized intrusive government, people want it to do what they want.

    There are two worldviews clashing here.

    Those that want Nanny State Maternal Governance and those that want Paternal Governance.

    Do you want government to take care of you, or do you want a government that merely enforces rules?

    This Feminist vs Masculine War is the globalist error.

    The nationalists want Rule of Law, not Rule by Nannies.

    Replies: @Not Only Wrathful, @Anonymous, @Alexander Turok

    The nationalists want Rule of Law, not Rule by Nannies.

    The past few months have shown that many of them think they can pick and choose what laws to obey, just like the Left’s Peaceful Arsonists.

  14. Whoever controls the TreasureFed should go full bore on the things they and their supporters want until the dollar breaks. Use it because we’re going to lose it, and if you don’t, the other side will.

    There has been a complete psychological breakdown in the concept of a relationship between Government spending and the taxes on normal Americans. At this point, 90% of voters assume any spending can be financed by: (a) adding it on the debt tab (to be paid after you’re dead by someone else); (b) having the Fed electronically conjure more credit/money from thin air (MMT); or (c) raising someone else’s taxes (usually “corporations” or “the rich”).

    Republicans probably made a big policy mistake over the last 20 years by cutting tax rates on low and moderate earners to the point that most Americans don’t even pay federal income tax. It’s also hard to argue for fiscal discipline after the 2008-2009 Financial Bailout and the 2020 Covid Bailout, in which Trillions could be seemingly pulled out of the aether at will. If there is really this secret mattress stuffed full of money somewhere, why sweat about cost/benefit decisions?

    We have gone from Calvin Coolidge to Charles Ponzi.

  15. until the dollar breaks

    When this happens then their only resort is to go to war with China and Russia, it will be the only option left for the elite to save them from an angry population. At the rate they are going the breakage point is approaching fast.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @neutral

    "When this happens then their only resort is to go to war with China and Russia..."

    Then the world will end. But do not fret, as this scenario is a but a figment of your wild imagination.

    , @SaneClownPosse
    @neutral

    "war with China and Russia, it will be the only option left for the elite to save them from an angry population"

    They aren't bothered at all by angry serfs.

    A world war is great for creating loans to every participant. Afterwards more loans will be needed to rebuild the world.

    A new world order will be needed to prevent such a war from ever happening again.
    The owners and rulers in the NWO will be the same families that rule and own everything now and ruled and owned everything in the past.

    It's the Phoenician Navy reenacting the legend of the Phoenix over and over. Old empire burns, new empire emerges. The new Phoenix gathers the ashes into a sacred urn as an offering to their god, Mammon.

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We get ruled again, over and over.

  16. The Left is going for broke. They want revolution.

    They are using the law against their political opponents.

    Bannon just got arrested, and they’re doubling down on Russia.

    They support China and Communism so Russia is their distraction.

    Civil War II is heating up. The Left and Right are now fighting.

    This MUST end in WAR. The Left WILL NOT STOP.

    The Globalists are getting OLD. This is their Big Moment.

    • Replies: @216
    @Dr. Doom

    Bannon probably is dirty.

    Perhaps under ordinary conditions it wouldn't be prosecuted, but I'm not one to shill for grifters.

    Bannon spent most of his recent career being the errand boy of a variety of billionaires. Given the opacity and contradictions of our tax system, prosecution is an inevitability if you oppose the wrong people.

    My accounts have been critical of Bannon ever since his Italian Castle adventure.

  17. @neutral

    until the dollar breaks
     
    When this happens then their only resort is to go to war with China and Russia, it will be the only option left for the elite to save them from an angry population. At the rate they are going the breakage point is approaching fast.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @SaneClownPosse

    “When this happens then their only resort is to go to war with China and Russia…”

    Then the world will end. But do not fret, as this scenario is a but a figment of your wild imagination.

  18. @Dr. Doom
    The Left is going for broke. They want revolution.

    They are using the law against their political opponents.

    Bannon just got arrested, and they're doubling down on Russia.

    They support China and Communism so Russia is their distraction.

    Civil War II is heating up. The Left and Right are now fighting.

    This MUST end in WAR. The Left WILL NOT STOP.

    The Globalists are getting OLD. This is their Big Moment.

    Replies: @216

    Bannon probably is dirty.

    Perhaps under ordinary conditions it wouldn’t be prosecuted, but I’m not one to shill for grifters.

    Bannon spent most of his recent career being the errand boy of a variety of billionaires. Given the opacity and contradictions of our tax system, prosecution is an inevitability if you oppose the wrong people.

    My accounts have been critical of Bannon ever since his Italian Castle adventure.

  19. They’re using Bannon and others to slime Trump.

    Misappropriating funds is normal government procedure nowadays.

    The WAR has started, whether any of you want it or not.

    They don’t have the troops to do a WAR with China or Russia.

    They would LOSE those badly with the force that Obama put together.

  20. Mr. Epigone says:

    Another thing worth noting is that support for small government is dead, even in an abstract sense like this where precision in who gets cut and how don’t have to be made. Rock-ribbed Republicans want less welfare, by which they mean government transfers to the poor–as opposed to the medical system, the law enforcement bureaucracy, affluent academia, or union construction contracts–but on everything else they, along with everyone else, wants more, more, more spending. Whoever controls the TreasureFed should go full bore on the things they and their supporters want until the dollar breaks. Use it because we’re going to lose it, and if you don’t, the other side will.

    Whoever controls the TreasureFed should go full bore on the things they and their supporters want until the dollar breaks. Use it because we’re going to lose it, and if you don’t, the other side will.

    Dr. John says:

    Such a Night
    It’s such a night
    Sweet confusion under the moonlight.

    Such a night
    Such a night
    To steal away, the time is right.

    Your eyes met mine
    At a glance
    You let me know
    This was my chance.

    You came here with my best friend Jim
    And here I am
    Trying to steal you away from him..

    Oh, but If I don’t do it somebody else will
    If I don’t do it, you know somebody else will

    And it’s such a night
    Such a night
    Sweet confusion under the moonlight

    It’s such a night
    Such a night
    To steal away, the time is right.
    I couldn’t believe my ears
    And my heart just skipped a beat
    When you told me to take you walking down the street.

    You came here with my best friend Jim
    And here I am
    Stealing you away from him.

    Oh, it’s such a night

    Dr. John — Such A Night:

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  21. @neutral

    until the dollar breaks
     
    When this happens then their only resort is to go to war with China and Russia, it will be the only option left for the elite to save them from an angry population. At the rate they are going the breakage point is approaching fast.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @SaneClownPosse

    “war with China and Russia, it will be the only option left for the elite to save them from an angry population”

    They aren’t bothered at all by angry serfs.

    A world war is great for creating loans to every participant. Afterwards more loans will be needed to rebuild the world.

    A new world order will be needed to prevent such a war from ever happening again.
    The owners and rulers in the NWO will be the same families that rule and own everything now and ruled and owned everything in the past.

    It’s the Phoenician Navy reenacting the legend of the Phoenix over and over. Old empire burns, new empire emerges. The new Phoenix gathers the ashes into a sacred urn as an offering to their god, Mammon.

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We get ruled again, over and over.

  22. I disagree. This time things really are different.

    The old paradigm is dying out and needs censorship to remain relevant.

    The New World Order will be different from what people currently expect.

    The grifters and liars are losing the confidence of the masses.

    The “small government” thing was just a canard.

    The GOP is just as Big Government as the Democrats.

    Fiscal Conservatism is now Impossible.

    The State has too many debts and bills to ever reduce spending.

    Debt has now exceeded GDP. The tax base is shrinking.

    The Rich are the only ones benefiting from this system.

  23. A lack of comments following a post might imply that no one cares but, on the other hand, instead, it might imply that the post leaves nothing else to say. Your present post fits the latter description.

    Another thing worth noting is that support for small government is dead, even in an abstract sense like this where precision in who gets cut and how don’t have to be made. Rock-ribbed Republicans want less welfare, by which they mean government transfers to the poor–as opposed to the medical system, the law enforcement bureaucracy, affluent academia, or union construction contracts–but on everything else they, along with everyone else, wants more, more, more spending. Whoever controls the TreasureFed should go full bore on the things they and their supporters want until the dollar breaks. Use it because we’re going to lose it, and if you don’t, the other side will.

    I have tried two days to think of an intelligent comment to add, but what else is there to say?

    I can only say that you have outlined a wretched rule to which I for one, unfortunately, am no exception. You are right. This will not end well.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone

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