RCP’s averages have Trump ceding Arizona, Florida, Maine’s second congressional district, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from 2016 without flipping any states of his own:
Biden’s prospects have never been better. The betting markets similarly have him winning in a landslide:
When we last visited the trading floor back in May, Biden was favored more modestly, at 290-248. That was after the coronavirus catastrophe but before civil unrest set America’s cities on fire.
Trump appears to have realized that his current trajectory is that of a one-term president. Over the last several days he has issued the first executive order of his time in office that significantly reduces legal immigration into the country, blasted pictures of rioters involved in the attempted toppling of the Andrew Jackson statue near the White House, and gave a fiery, unapologetic speech on the eve of the nation’s independence. Sample quote:
We must protect and preserve our history, our heritage, and our great heroes. Here tonight, before the eyes of our forefathers, Americans declare again–as we did 244 years ago–that we will not be tyrannized. We will not be demeaned. And we will not be intimidated by bad, evil people.
Our prediction of a Biden victory stands, but this reversion to 2016 campaign Trump stands a chance of turning things around. How much of a chance? More than Jared Kushner’s counsel was yielding him. More than zero percent, in other words.