YouGov released the results of in-depth opinion polling a few days ago. It contains quite a few items of interest, so what follows is a brief discussion of them.
– Hispanics express the most satisfaction with the direction the US is going. Net positive direction scores–computed by taking the percentages who say the US is headed in the right direction and subtracting from it the percentages who say the country is off track–by race/ethnicity:
The histrionics about concentration camps is red meat for status-signalling NPR listeners who never set foot outside a super zip, but Hispanics in the US know the door is open, illegals who make it here get to stay, and that they will increasingly be treated indistinguishably from actual American citizens–free health care, voting rights, entire cities where the same non-English languages they speak is spoken by nearly everyone else, etc. It’s hard to blame them for being happy about the country becoming more racially and culturally familiar to them with each passing day.
– The skids really are greased for war on Iran. Imperial fatigue and Trump’s latent instincts against disastrous military interventionism may yet again frustrate hopes in Israel and Saudi Arabia that America will smash up their mutual enemy, but if Persia ends up in the cross hairs, its people aren’t going to get much sympathy from Americans. Percentages who consider the Iranians bad guys (“unfriendly” or “enemy”) with the residuals representing percentages who see Iranians as good guys (“friendly” or “ally”), by selected demographic characteristics:
This is the worst performance of any other of the twelve countries the poll inquired about. China and Russia do considerably better. Even North Korea does modestly so.
Parenthetically, of the over 300 respondents aged 65 or older–people old enough to remember the hostage crisis–not a single person considered Iran a friend or an ally.
– The Sinitic historians of the future who write The Decline and Fall of the Western World will do well to return time and again to the theme of collapsing levels of trust in the major institutions of Western society. Only among those aged 65 and older does a majority trust the US government’s accounting of recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. Among those under the age of 45, the USG doesn’t even get a plurality of credulity, let alone a majority:
– White Democrats are big proponents of increasing the amount of legal immigration into the US. The survey doesn’t explicitly break results out by both race and political orientation, but deducing it from the results that are presented is easy to do. Net appetite for more legal immigration–calculated by taking percentages who want more and subtracting from it percentages who want less–by race/ethnicity and partisan affiliation:
Hispanics: – 5
Given that 90%+ of the Republican sample is presumably white and most non-whites self-identify as Democrats, this suggests the score for white Democrats to be something like +30 while the score for non-white Democrats is around +10.
As an aside, just 19% of Trump voters want to see legal immigration increased, the president’s calls for increasing it notwithstanding.
– Opposition to Border Wall Strongest Among Blacks, Part XXVIII–the percentages opposed to a wall subtracted from the percentages in favor of it, by race/ethnicity:
Blacks are similarly the least likely to support deportation of illegal aliens, the most likely to support legalizing their residency statuses, etc. None of the items under consideration mention anything about Republicans or Donald Trump, either–they are strictly policy questions.
– Bill de Blasio must be one of the least popular politicians in the country. His net favorability rating is negative even among Democrats. Net favorability ratings–percentages favorable minus percentages unfavorable–for the communist mayor:
Of the 25 candidates the survey asked about, the only other Democrat who turns in this poor a performance among members of his own party–let alone among independents and Republicans, where both do worse still–is Woke Capitalist Howard Schultz.
– YouGov did an interesting thing, especially given the large Democrat field–it asked prospective Democrat primary voters who they were considering voting for and allowed them to select as many names as they wanted. The top five overall:
The top five candidates under consideration by the coveted black vote:
And the top five among women:
Takeaways from this?
Don’t count Kamala out. Yeah, I’m on the ropes because of my early prediction that she’d claim the nomination, but if uncle Joe takes a fall–figuratively or literally–she is demographically well-positioned to take advantage of the space his exit will create.
Sanders, in contrast, is like Ron Paul in 2008 or 2012–he has a devoted base that will put him in second or third place in a lot of states, but he isn’t anybody’s second or third choice. While the other tier-one candidates will benefit from the lesser knowns dropping out, Sanders won’t. There’s no path to the nomination for him.
Speaking of candidates with no chance, Beto O’Rourke has been and continues to be an entirely astroturfed candidate with no organic support and no natural constituency.
On the other hand, Warren does have a real chance. Trump must be giddy about the prospect of her nomination.
She strikes me as the opponent who gives him the best chance of reelection. She’s another northeastern liberal, vinegar-drinking scold with zero hipness. To the extent that she energizes anyone, it’s the pussyhat-wearers who are already charged up by the prospect of throwing the sexist orange pig out of the White House. They’ll be at the polls no matter who the Democrat nominee is. She doesn’t gin up the POC ascendancy like Harris could but she doesn’t present the same threat to steal blue collar whites away from Trump that Biden does, either. And Trump has a devastating auto-response to all her Woke attacks on him: “Oh this is funny folks, the fake Indian is going to lecture me on diversity!”
– Of the 15 issues asked about, immigration is ranked most important among Republicans by the widest margin I’ve yet seen in polls like this–29% list it as the most important issue, with the economy coming in a distant second at 18%. Among independents, immigration (14%) is second-most important after health care (16%).