One curious aspect of hate crime, which we are told is on the rise in Trump’s America, is how it is predominantly a blue state phenomenon. The inverse correlation between Trump’s share of the vote and the rate of reported hate crime incidents is .60.
That strikingly robust relationship is buoyed by the District of Columbia, the most hate-filled place in the country by far. DC extended it’s lead in hate between 2016 and 2017. While the total number of reported incidents increased 17% during Trump’s first year in office, the number of reported incidents in the capital increased a staggering 68%!
Even when DC is removed from the calculation, though, an inverse correlation of .28 remains:
|State||Hate per 100,000 people|
|17) New Hampshire||1.00|
|18) Rhode Island||1.04|
|19) New Mexico||1.25|
|21) North Carolina||1.62|
|23) South Carolina||1.74|
|25) West Virginia||1.95|
|26) North Dakota||1.99|
|28) South Dakota||2.13|
|36) New York||2.80|
|46) New Jersey||5.50|
|50) District of Columbia||27.81|
The anticipated retort that blue state hate is higher on account of MAGA men lashing out in places where they feel numerically besieged is hard to square with the significant overrepresentation of blacks among hate crime offenders. Hate crime participation rates relative to population representation by race, with anything over 100% indicating disproportionately high hate crime perpetration and anything under 100% indicating disproportionately low hate crime perpetration:
Hispanic or non-Hispanic is broken out separately from race, so the figure for “whites” includes many Hispanics, inflating the apparent non-Hispanic white figure given that Hispanics, when broken out separately, or more hate crime-inclined than non-Hispanics are.