The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersAudacious Epigone Blog
2020 Polling Prognostications
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

2020 electoral maps based on RCP general election polling for Trump vs Biden, Sanders, and Warren through December 9th, 2019 follow.

The Biden brutalization:

The RCP average has Trump beating Biden in Texas by less than one point, and Texas was one of eleven states where Trump performed worse in the actual election than polling predicted he would in 2016. If Biden wins Texas in this scenario, the electoral blowout intensifies to 406-132.

Texas’ time is near. Being the only state in the country where whites vote more Republican than non-whites vote Democrat is not going to be enough in a place that is 41% white and falling and where just one-in-three births are to white babies.

On the other hand, Trump could have traded mighty Texas to Hillary in exchange for tiny New Hampshire and still won in 2016.

On the other other hand, Georgia may flip before Texas does, and once both have gone blue the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw.

From the GOP’s perspective, Texas and Georgia are terminal but the party’s electoral winter need not necessarily set in during the 2020s. If the party is able to sustain its 2016 gains in the upper Midwest while additionally picking off a couple of small New England states like Maine and New Hampshire, Republicans could continue to win presidential elections into the 2040s.

Polling up to this point shows Trump not only getting crushed in Michigan and Pennsylvania but also beaten in Ohio, so seeing the path to continued electoral relevance and managing to walk down it are two very different things.

The Sanders savaging:

The Warren whipping:

Polling is incomplete for the rest of the Democrat field. Several states also have results for Buttigieg, but a few do not. He falls in between Sanders and Warren in how he fares against Trump in the states he’s included in.

Though the polls portend Republican disaster, the markets have general election chances at close to a coin flip, Republicans at 47% to Democrats at 54%.

Why? Polling modestly understated Trump’s performance in 2016, but they are a lot worse for him at this point in 2020 than they were at the same point in 2016.

Part of it is that Trump is a known quantity. Barring a market collapse, he’s at his floor. Though Biden and Sanders are familiar to low-information voters, they’ve not been fully scrutinized, so both are likely to come down upon getting the nomination if either does.

Warren’s situation is worse. She starts lower than her fellow Democrats yet she has farther to fall than they do. Many low-information voters don’t know who she is. They don’t know about her pretending to be non-white to game the affirmative action system, they don’t know she used to be a Republican, they don’t know what her voice sounds like. She is surely Trump’s best matchup in the Democrat field.

 
Hide 322 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. ‘Why?’

    Why?

    Because at some point Biden’s handlers have to let him open his mouth, and when that happens, the saliva will run out and start dripping off his chin, and that’ll be that.

    • LOL: Bruno, Z-man
    • Replies: @Russ

    Because at some point Biden’s handlers have to let him open his mouth, and when that happens, the saliva will run out and start dripping off his chin, and that’ll be that.
     
    No Malarkey is already tipping his dementia with every appearance as it is. With Quid Pro Ho' now gone and Quid Pro Homo and Quid Pro NotANavajo ebbing, it'll soon enough be Quid Pro Joe, and once that happens, the Trump squad with its record minimum $/vote in '16 fixates on the 2020 edition of Walter Mondale '84 and off we go.
    , @Haxo Angmark
    there's a reason Drumpf just shifted his voter registration to Florida:

    even. one. vote. could. be. decisive, as in:

    Drumpf wins Florida by one vote,

    and then the EC by one vote.
  2. I don`t know about Biden, on the ground he seems to have lost even the retarded boomers.

    On the other hand, do dems really want to beat Trump this cycle? Isn`t it better strategically to hand him the coming crash as a rope to hang himself with, and “his” gay bottoms party with him?

    • Agree: Duke84, Longfisher
    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    I googled retarded baby boomers but did not look beyond the first page of results. I found lots of references to retarded baby boomers but nothing about the actual prevalence of mental retardation among that cohort. I brought back this tidbit.

    The majority of baby boomers support their adult children

    According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39. There are several potential reasons for this, such as record-high student-debt levels and a difficult job market for recent college graduates.
     
    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/07/29/9-baby-boomer-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx

    Are there a significant number of Americans who hate their parents and grand parents?

    I was born in '44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION. I was a great baby. And I can tell you that the world was already fucked up when the Boomers got here. And it will still be fucked up when you are done with it.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    The No Malarkey tour bus is a sop to them. Biden isn't trying to be everything to everyone. He's appealing to older white moderates who want something familiar while maintaining his strong black support.
  3. Ohio as blue in all three scenarios seems aggressive for Dems. Trump won it in 2016 52-44.

    My view is that the nominee AND the running mate are going to matter. I actually do think if Hillary picked someone other than Tim Kaine, she could have one

    For the reasons outlined here ( https://blog.politicalalertengine.com/dems-should-pass-on-kamala-as-vp ), I think Harris is a bad running mate.

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Get Destroyed
    Buttigieg-Harris
    Warren-Castro

    Sanders is high-risk/high-reward IMO (with a Sanders nomination, you do better in places like the Midwest but establishment may secretly prefer a Trump win; also if Sanders were to win, a third-party centrist candidate may appear)

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
     
    Yielding to Yang 😂
    , @SunBakedSuburb
    "I think Harris is a bad running mate."

    Agree. She's obviously vapid and hungry for power. Not a good combination. But if Joe stumbles into the White House he'll be bringing either Kamala or Stacey Abrams with him. Abrams is smart and desires retribution. Kamala will be a medium for Hillary.
    , @AnotherDad
    Running mates historically make essentially no difference. If a difference, it's negative preception.

    People vote for the President, not the Vice President.

    Tim Kaine made no difference positive or negative. It was so close Hillary could have done a lot of stuff to win--not make the deplorables comment, campaign for blue collar whites ... but she's Hillary so acted like Hillary. But Kaine had nothing to do with it.

    I do agree however that Harris would be a terrifically bad pick. She potentially has the fingernails on the chalkboard appeal--sufficiently negative to drag down the ticket. But she will not be picked--she demonstrated her lack of appeal in the primary.
    , @Z-man

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren
     
    ROFL!
    Trump in a landslide!
    Hopefully he'll exorcize Satanic Neocon and Christian Zionist influence out of his WH in a second term but I'm not holding my breath.
  4. Sometimes I think that maybe President Trump still has a chance in 2020. Then I look at actual data (such as it is). The world as I knew it comes to an end on 20 JAN 2021.

    • Replies: @SunBakedSuburb
    "Then I look at actual data (such as it is)."

    Survival plan time for those born with the wrong color and gender. My plan: eat my way to a 48 inch waist and moobs, shave twice a day, and identify as lesbian.
    , @Anon
    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/10/trumpslide-2020-cometh.html

    Trump still has a shot.

    There are very smart people who see him winning.

    But even if he wins it just delays the diversity Communist revolution.
    , @Anonymous
    No one will suffer more under whatever part of the GND is passed than the Dem base, so take heart. When the markets tank again, look for confiscation of the $7.2 billion in private retirement assets under the guise of protecting them from going to zero, issuing worthless gov paper as replacement.
  5. Current Predictit probabilities for Democrats becoming President total to 72% (ignoring the 1% predictions) while the probability of any Democrat beating Trump is 56%. This seems to be an arbitrage opportunity.

    But the much bigger arbitrage opportunity involves the phenomenon of “2nd Amendment Sanctuary Counties” in Virginia — which has gone completely insane thinking it can confiscate weapons. Given Trump has come out in favor of “Red Flag Laws” (in some States letting “psychologists” decide whether to send “law” enforcement to your house to confiscate your weapons) this kind of thing is likely to trigger a 30 years war of religion. The religious factions are between the “Catholics” (those who believe “The Supremacy Clause” of the US Constitution entitles them to call people who want local rule “White Supremacists” and confiscate their weapons), and the “Protestants” (who are largely men who have been suffering the contempt of and humiliation by the former their entire lives itching to either kill the real supremacists or die trying).

    Remember, the religious wars in Europe cost 25% of its population their lives.

  6. As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver’s seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch’s brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world’s most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump’s election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn’t bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    • LOL: CDebussey, Haha
    • Troll: Sol
    • Replies: @neutral
    I am sure that in your troubled mind that incoherent rambling makes sense.
    , @Colin Wright
    '... The good news is that the extreme Left isn’t bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.'

    It's a pity you're completely wrong about that.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality

    Even taking your general sentiments into account, is "benign" really the word you intended to use there? Maybe "overblown" or "exaggerated", but benign? It sounds psychopathic.
    , @Haha
    I thought I would ask you, "What have you been smoking, Sam?" But a second reading of your post compels me to ask "When did you have your frontal lobotomy?" And wasn't it at the Democratic Progressive Loony Sciences Hospital?
    , @FvS
    Would you rather live in Mexico or the U.S.?

    https://i.imgur.com/TiR8xoC.jpg
    , @glasno
    I was on board until crime was described as benign. I even agree that the radical left is the best bet at this juncture though I imagine we have different definitions of radical left, I know we do with the definition of crime. Good try though.

    also, lmao Jews even took over the word semite. It's not enough to be covered by the word racist, Jews need a special word that describes the unique and special nature of hating them. First as usury then as holohoax
    , @glasno
    It's interesting people spent so much time noticing how the radical left was crushed in America that no one noticed the homosexing of conservatism too. Republicans should at least try to chip away at California, and maybe in 40 years it'll be red again, who knows? HAHAHAHAHA! Don't worry capitalism will save the white race... or it won't.. depends on the benign hand of the market HAHAHAHAHAHA!! Look, I don't enjoy this any more than you do, but we must laugh at our folly.

    Ok, about the article. I don't agree. No way. Ohio is not blue. Nor is North Carolina and Georgia.
    For all of Trump's troubles, and yes he is a pile of shit, he still is more popular than some would believe. Michigan and Pennsylvania are tossups from now till election day, no one should be calling those, let alone a year away from election day.

    Merry CHRISTmas,
    --A regular Unz reader
    , @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    When people ask you to drink the Kool Aid it doesn't mean you have to drink the whole jug.
    In your Pozzed world view, when does the nation cease to function? Is it after 100 million Hispanic Dreamers cross the Rio Grande or when Californication destroys the nation's economy?
  7. The lead over Trump held by Biden
    Is wide, and continues to widen.
    Will Trump still be the guy
    In em-em-ex-ex-eye*,
    Or will Biden instead be presidin’?

    *MMXXI (2021)

    • LOL: Bill Jones
  8. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    I am sure that in your troubled mind that incoherent rambling makes sense.

    • Replies: @Sam Coulton
    Coming from the individual whose every post concerns Jews or the deification of Hitler, that's rich.

    Obsessively anti-semitic schizophreniac retards are also found behind the wheel in the wreckage that is the right wing.

  9. It seems that Gropey Joe was cajoled into running, primarily to stop the resurgent Left. I’m not sure if he really wants to be there.

    The ideal situation for the D Establishment is for Joe to scrape over the line, lose the Senate (so they don’t have to do anything), and try to see off people like AOC. Joe has a severe health crisis (or perhaps just dies) a few months into his first term, leaving moderate WoC Kamala in charge. The perfect plan.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    Devious!

    "How are we going to win the elections, Brain?"

    "You run, Pinky. After the accident, I take over."

    "What accident, Brain?"

    https://i.imgur.com/QGsvXWm.gif

    And what will happen with the body-harvesting opinion-managing Big Social Tech (FA-GO-TW) during the elections?
    , @neutral
    I don't think Kamala will be the vice president, more likely it will be that full black Stacey Abrams. There is a very real likelyhood she will be president because of Biden dying or being too demented, this means the the USA will a someone that is equivalent African strongmen such as Mugabe, and she will definitely going after whites with a vengeance.
  10. @Nodwink
    It seems that Gropey Joe was cajoled into running, primarily to stop the resurgent Left. I'm not sure if he really wants to be there.

    The ideal situation for the D Establishment is for Joe to scrape over the line, lose the Senate (so they don't have to do anything), and try to see off people like AOC. Joe has a severe health crisis (or perhaps just dies) a few months into his first term, leaving moderate WoC Kamala in charge. The perfect plan.

    Devious!

    “How are we going to win the elections, Brain?”

    “You run, Pinky. After the accident, I take over.”

    “What accident, Brain?”

    And what will happen with the body-harvesting opinion-managing Big Social Tech (FA-GO-TW) during the elections?

  11. @Nodwink
    It seems that Gropey Joe was cajoled into running, primarily to stop the resurgent Left. I'm not sure if he really wants to be there.

    The ideal situation for the D Establishment is for Joe to scrape over the line, lose the Senate (so they don't have to do anything), and try to see off people like AOC. Joe has a severe health crisis (or perhaps just dies) a few months into his first term, leaving moderate WoC Kamala in charge. The perfect plan.

    I don’t think Kamala will be the vice president, more likely it will be that full black Stacey Abrams. There is a very real likelyhood she will be president because of Biden dying or being too demented, this means the the USA will a someone that is equivalent African strongmen such as Mugabe, and she will definitely going after whites with a vengeance.

    • LOL: CDebussey
    • Replies: @Kevin O'Keeffe

    I don’t think Kamala will be the vice president, more likely it will be that full black Stacey Abrams. There is a very real likelyhood she will be president because of Biden dying....
     
    I don't think that's a very likely outcome, but if it does happen, this country is through. There will be war.
  12. @neutral
    I am sure that in your troubled mind that incoherent rambling makes sense.

    Coming from the individual whose every post concerns Jews or the deification of Hitler, that’s rich.

    Obsessively anti-semitic schizophreniac retards are also found behind the wheel in the wreckage that is the right wing.

    • Replies: @neutral
    Seek help, you are very clearly disturbed.
    , @in the middle
    Are not Arabs Semites? And others throughout the world? Instead o Anti-Semite, should be anti Arab? For those who know, where does the word 'Semite' comes from? I about had it with the 'anti-Semite' accusation. Probably you meant anti-Kazhar!
    , @Wally
    Except that you cannot refute Revisionist research which proves that Hitler did not do what is alleged by exposing the absolute impossibility of your "holocaust" fantasy.

    And what's wrong with telling the truth about Jews ... that everyone already knows?
    , @Scythianrabbit
    That's interesting coming from people who castrate 3 year olds due to transgender ideology and believe that male and female are social constructs
  13. @Sam Coulton
    Coming from the individual whose every post concerns Jews or the deification of Hitler, that's rich.

    Obsessively anti-semitic schizophreniac retards are also found behind the wheel in the wreckage that is the right wing.

    Seek help, you are very clearly disturbed.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    Regarding Samdu Coultonish, you can only help yourself by engaging the ignore button.
  14. @gman
    Ohio as blue in all three scenarios seems aggressive for Dems. Trump won it in 2016 52-44.

    My view is that the nominee AND the running mate are going to matter. I actually do think if Hillary picked someone other than Tim Kaine, she could have one

    For the reasons outlined here ( https://blog.politicalalertengine.com/dems-should-pass-on-kamala-as-vp ), I think Harris is a bad running mate.

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Get Destroyed
    Buttigieg-Harris
    Warren-Castro

    Sanders is high-risk/high-reward IMO (with a Sanders nomination, you do better in places like the Midwest but establishment may secretly prefer a Trump win; also if Sanders were to win, a third-party centrist candidate may appear)

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang

    Yielding to Yang 😂

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    That seems plausible to me. Yang's support doesn't overlap much with the rest of the Democrat field so he could legitimately pull some moderates to vote Democrat. He brings a lot of energy, he's likable, youngish, and wrt diversity he's only an Asian male, but a pair still beats high card and the other three guys in P/VP contention are old white men. Additionally, the prospect of a Yang president probably doesn't scare anyone (Silicon Valley possibly excepted) much.
  15. Polls at this point are useless…if not always.

    • Agree: Bubba
    • Replies: @Curmudgeon
    Agreed.
    What is not shown, is where the polls were taken. Urban USA votes Democrat, rural USA votes Republican. This article from 2016 made the most sense of anything I'd seen
    https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
    The 2016 polls were being fixed for Clinton to create a bandwagon effect. That's why she was 90% sure to be elected. These polls will be irrelevant because, as Jeff Rense predicted well over a year ago, Clinton will run and be the nominee.
    , @Curmudgeon
    Agreed.
    What is not shown, is where the polls were taken. Urban USA votes Democrat, rural USA votes Republican. This article from 2016 made the most sense of anything I'd seen
    https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
    The 2016 polls were being fixed for Clinton to create a bandwagon effect. That's why she was 90% sure to be elected. These polls will be irrelevant because, as Jeff Rense predicted well over a year ago, Clinton will run and be the nominee.
    , @Sin City Milla
    Not only are the polls fake, but so will be the 2020 voting in Komifornia n other locales where the State Diversity Cult wields its absolute power. Voting for Orange Man will be suppressed as a sinful hate crime.
  16. I’m surprised to see Iowa in the Red State camp in all of these polls. My read of Iowa is that it will swing Democratic in 2020. I know it’s only six electoral votes, but at this point, Trump needs every state he can get.

    There’s simply no way any reasonably-informed Republican can look at the electoral college map with any degree of optimism.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Trump needs to improve his performance with whites by about 1% to win in a similar blowout to 2016. With that 1% he can hold the rust belt, add New Hampshire and Nevada, and win the EC by well over 100 with a “popular vote” loss.

    I fully expect him to do so. A not insignificant number of straight-R voting, educated whites sat out 2016 or voted for McMullin or whoever. The last 3 years have shown the Trumpian Bargain to be a much better choice than a protest vote. We’re not beaten yet.

    , @MBlanc46
    As John Derbyshire puts it, “We are doomed”.
  17. I don’t know why people are surprised.

    Trump in reality did almost nothing to stop the seismic demographic shift going on. He also cucked and refused to make the GOP the white party. Non whites don’t vote Republican.

    Simple math dictates the GOP is running out of time.

    Somehow this math does not compute with GOP people or Boomers. I have explained this so many times to people, but they always just give me a blank stare. They short circuit to avoid the truth, and mumble something like “well we need to increase our poc outreach programs”…

    And btw – people of colour would vote for the GOP MORE if it was unequivocally the white folks’ party, just saying. They hate weak white cucks like the GOP.

    • Agree: Hail
    • Replies: @John Arthur
    Exactly, I feel like other non whites would support the GOP if they made themselves the party of White Civilization, which is why they are all here in the United States.
    Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers. Even if Republicans were pro-immigration, why would any working class nonwhite support them?

    Republicans need to make the explicit argument that a more White America will be better for nonwhites payroll than a less White America. Even Hispanics, Arabs, and Asians can tell that they will do better in a America with Seattle's demographics than Detroit's, and one that wont send their kids to die fighting some random Neocon fetish.

    , @MBlanc46
    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party. They would vote for it in even lesser numbers if it were explicitly the white peoples’s party. It’s white people, simpliciter, that they hate.
    , @By-tor
    US blacks are not going to vote for the party of the family-oriented, gainfully-employed, law-abiding American white majority- ever. You must live in the Canadian Great White North far away from the cities of the American black population's post-WWII social dysfunction.
  18. The Republican Party is a donor-controlled dodo bird heading for the boneyard of political parties. Good riddance.

    White Core America is the new political party that will honorably and patriotically destroy the evil and immoral Republican Party.

    Explicit White Identity Politics is the way to go to harness the energy and fiery spirits of White Americans born after 1965 who want to reclaim political power to advance the interests of the European Christian ancestral core of the USA. Many White Americans born before 1965 will abandon the Republican Party too.

    White Core America will welcome the vicious attacks sure to come its way when they boldly state their policies and their claim to power.

    White Core America has no plans to dilute its message or broaden its appeal to immediately attain the votes of most Americans. White Core America will start off as a wrecking ball to the two-party tyranny tearing apart the historic American nation.

    White Core America will use write-in votes or any other method to destroy the Republican Party in 2020.

    Young White Core Americans have had it with the greed and avarice and treason and base cowardice of the disgusting whore politicians in the Republican Party. The Republican Party politician whores are bought and paid for by vile and greedy globalizer money-grubbers such as the Koch Boy Crowd and Shelly Adelson and Norman Braman and Ronny Lauder and Les Wexner and Paul Singer and Seth Klarman and many, many other nasty globalizer plutocrats.

    Trump Has Betrayed And Abandoned His Voters On Immigration And America First And White Core America Will Gladly Earn Those Votes — Thank You Very Much!

    There were 4 big political parties — representing regional and sectional interests — in the 1860 election and there will be 4 or more big political parties in the 2020 election.

    White Core America Party

    Green Party

    Libertarian Party

    Democrat Party

    Republican Party

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

    IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM NOW!

    DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS NOW!

    • Replies: @Lawdog
    Do you remember? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
  19. Though Biden and Sanders are familiar to low-information voters, they’ve not been fully scrutinized, so both are likely to come down upon getting the nomination if either does.

    This is the key. An Actual candidate versus a Theoretical one almost always gives many points to the emphemeral. Mutually exclusive beliefs can be contained within a theory candidate. As soon as positions are nailed down, some of the support will go away. A contentious, brokered convention could spell doom for Democrats.

    Another thing that polls frequently miss at this point is turnout. Trump has delivered jobs to minority communities, thus giving him all time Republican high favorables. While this is unlikely to flip large numbers of votes, low minority turnout is a huge risk for Dems.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    A brokered convention is a real possibility. Sanders' support isn't going anywhere but he's not winning, either, so if some combination of two among Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg all plug along for awhile, the stage will be set.
  20. Anonymous[114] • Disclaimer says:
    @Diversity Heretic
    I'm surprised to see Iowa in the Red State camp in all of these polls. My read of Iowa is that it will swing Democratic in 2020. I know it's only six electoral votes, but at this point, Trump needs every state he can get.

    There's simply no way any reasonably-informed Republican can look at the electoral college map with any degree of optimism.

    Trump needs to improve his performance with whites by about 1% to win in a similar blowout to 2016. With that 1% he can hold the rust belt, add New Hampshire and Nevada, and win the EC by well over 100 with a “popular vote” loss.

    I fully expect him to do so. A not insignificant number of straight-R voting, educated whites sat out 2016 or voted for McMullin or whoever. The last 3 years have shown the Trumpian Bargain to be a much better choice than a protest vote. We’re not beaten yet.

    • Agree: Kevin O'Keeffe
    • Replies: @216
    The best scenario for the GOP next year:

    1. Economy is doing well, labor participation ticks up 1-2 points. Wage growth continues

    2. Divisive Dem primary, brokered convention, unenthusiastic running mate like Deval Patrick

    3. Turnout drops

    4. No eruptions of "war on women" talk from the GOP, the socon crazy uncle is safely kept in the attic

    5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest

    6. Trump moderates on fiscal policy, also moderates on temperment.
  21. I am not sure in this polling if Independents/Affiliated voters are captured.

    This poll could be correct just counting Democrats or Republicans, but Trump won the last election with a good number of Independents voting for him and I believe their numbers have increased since then.

    Maybe.

    I believe the Dems candidate will still be Joe Biden with either K. Harris or some other woman on the ticket (E. Warren makes the ticket too old)…The coverage of Biden will be very controlled with the media giving him all kinds of free passes similar to what they did for Obama when he ran…

    Just my opinion, others will feel differently.

  22. I have a hard time believing Warren could win. She is just so shrill that she alienates even the average normie man.

    • Replies: @Kim
    I would not be surprised if the average normie man finds her shrillness attractive.
    , @Beefcake the Mighty
    Even cucks would blanch at the idea of a demented librarian with nuclear weapons.
  23. 2020 is Trump’s election to lose IF the economy keeps chugging along AND nothing comes from the impeachment. Polling data at this point is pretty silly because much can happen in the next year. In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck. Most of the Never Trump right has morphed into OK, Trump. I just don’t see many defections from the right.

    The Democrats only real hope is to boost turnout in swing states. None of their leading candidates seem inspiring. They could all add Stacy Abrams as their veep and that would probably do the trick. The Democrats must have black women come out in droves to flip Georgia and have any hope at Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. Then again, Abrams couldn’t even take Georgia and Kemp was a pretty bad candidate.

    But then I thought Kamala Harris was a pretty good candidate on paper.

    • Agree: Ian Smith
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Russian Bot Alert --> "In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck."

    He has not built a wall, he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy, he engaged in a quid pro quo, and he lies repeatedly. Oh, and he loves Jews.

    That said, the polling is way too early, and I would surmise citizens have already made up their mind who they will vote for. Haven't we learned from 2016 (or Kansas gubernatorial races) about predictions?

  24. @WHAT
    I don`t know about Biden, on the ground he seems to have lost even the retarded boomers.

    On the other hand, do dems really want to beat Trump this cycle? Isn`t it better strategically to hand him the coming crash as a rope to hang himself with, and "his" gay bottoms party with him?

    I googled retarded baby boomers but did not look beyond the first page of results. I found lots of references to retarded baby boomers but nothing about the actual prevalence of mental retardation among that cohort. I brought back this tidbit.

    The majority of baby boomers support their adult children

    According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39. There are several potential reasons for this, such as record-high student-debt levels and a difficult job market for recent college graduates.

    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/07/29/9-baby-boomer-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx

    Are there a significant number of Americans who hate their parents and grand parents?

    I was born in ’44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION. I was a great baby. And I can tell you that the world was already fucked up when the Boomers got here. And it will still be fucked up when you are done with it.

    • Replies: @Ray Huffman
    I was born in ’44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION.

    Guess again.

    , @MBlanc46
    Well, WC, I’m ’46 and a “Boomer”. Go eff yourself.
    , @follyofwar
    The so-called Greatest Generation was the cohort old enough to fight in WWII, which means it ended with those born after 1927. Age 18 when the war ended.

    You, my friend, are part of the Silent Generation which followed, and ended in 1945 when the WWII vets returned home to make babies, which became the Baby Boomers (1946-64).

    I find it odd that, after nothing but boomers since Clinton's election in 1992, the democrats are so bereft of new ideas that they are seriously considering 3 very old pre-boomers (Biden, Bernie, and Bloomberg) to be their nominee.

    This party is starting to look like the gerontocracy which helped to hasten the fall of the USSR, only older.
    , @Sin City Milla
    The problem with boomers over 65 is that their outlook was formed in the 50s n 60s when intellectuals swallowed whole trendy Communist propaganda, n they have learned nothing since. They still think white racism n desegregation protest marches are relevant. You can't get more out of touch than that. Only boomers n college students are so uninformed that... Well I've learned from experience not to waste my breath on them.
  25. The credibility of current polling is well summarized here:

    http://smbc-comics.com/comic/podcast

    PEACE

  26. @gman
    Ohio as blue in all three scenarios seems aggressive for Dems. Trump won it in 2016 52-44.

    My view is that the nominee AND the running mate are going to matter. I actually do think if Hillary picked someone other than Tim Kaine, she could have one

    For the reasons outlined here ( https://blog.politicalalertengine.com/dems-should-pass-on-kamala-as-vp ), I think Harris is a bad running mate.

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Get Destroyed
    Buttigieg-Harris
    Warren-Castro

    Sanders is high-risk/high-reward IMO (with a Sanders nomination, you do better in places like the Midwest but establishment may secretly prefer a Trump win; also if Sanders were to win, a third-party centrist candidate may appear)

    “I think Harris is a bad running mate.”

    Agree. She’s obviously vapid and hungry for power. Not a good combination. But if Joe stumbles into the White House he’ll be bringing either Kamala or Stacey Abrams with him. Abrams is smart and desires retribution. Kamala will be a medium for Hillary.

    • Replies: @follyofwar
    White Dems should stop and think, a vote for Biden is a vote for President Abrams, if that's his running mate. Old Joe will not survive until 2024. Do you really think Abrams is smart?
  27. @MBlanc46
    Sometimes I think that maybe President Trump still has a chance in 2020. Then I look at actual data (such as it is). The world as I knew it comes to an end on 20 JAN 2021.

    “Then I look at actual data (such as it is).”

    Survival plan time for those born with the wrong color and gender. My plan: eat my way to a 48 inch waist and moobs, shave twice a day, and identify as lesbian.

    • Replies: @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    Maintain 36' waist, eat healthy, get colon checked, buy AR-15 (and know how to use it), take no shit.
    Pray to God.
    Kneel to no man.
  28. I think fair value for GOP wins 2020 is around 41.

    Biden wins the Nom I think is a good bet.

    How many times has a party failed to nominate their best general election candidate?

    Only example I can think of is HRC over Bernie in 2016. And in that case, Bernie’s better polling wasn’t well covered by the media.

    • Replies: @houston 1992
    hmm
    1972: Muskie would have been stronger than McGovern,
    in 1980 perhaps Teddy Kennedy would have been stronger than Carter,
    1984: Gary Hart > Fritz Mondale
    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
    2016: Sanders with his old immigration realism >> Hillary

    Republican nominees
    1960 Gov Rockefeller/ Cabot Lodge > Nixon
    1976: Reagan >> Ford
    1988, 1992 Dole> Bush 41
    2008 : Pierre Delecto >> John McCain
    2012: anyone but Pierre Delecto > Pierrre Delecto
  29. GA and TX are mirages for the Dems. Their best path to winning is retaking MI/PA/WI.

    White-hating pundits ignore this because it requires getting icky WWC votes. But such voters have regularly voted for Dems, including in 2018. Getting a small number of Obama-Obama-Trump voters to swing back is far more realistic than getting a massive number of TX Hispanics who have never voted before to do so.

    Raising minority turnout doesn’t sound hard in theory. But if it were remotely possible, some Democrat in TX would have done it already, somewhere, even just one example of it.

    • Replies: @c matt
    Wrt Texas: have to look at it by county. Statewide GOP does OK because they lose by small margins in the big counties, but generally win by large margins in the small counties. With each election cycle, the Dem margin of victory in the big counties is growing, so there is a good chance that will change statewide outcomes. Maybe not 2024, but if not, I suspect 2024 will be the GOP's last hurrah.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Abrams lost to Kemp by 55,000 votes out of about three million cast, 50.2% to 48.8% with the rest going to the Libertarian. That definitely does not suggest that Georgia is out of reach for the Democrats in 2020. That’s wishful thinking.

    I’ll guess that trump will win Georgia again, but repubs had better not be too confident there.

    Moreover, even in just two years between the Abrams election and the presidential election, the African population of Georgia presumably has continued to increase as always. (It’s sure easier to pump out the children when you’re not paying for them.). There are, presumably, also more foreign-born non-european people in Georgia than in 2018, and that demographic is reliably known to deliver dem supermajorities.

    Even slight dem increases in these two categories will require higher white turnout to let the republicans hang on to this State — especially if the Dem veep nominee is African and the Africans register a bunch of new voters (and pull out the stops with voter fraud more than usual).

  30. How many times do I have to say this?

    Warren is better for Trump than Sanders/Biden/Buttman, but not Trump’s best matchup.

    That title would belong to Klobuchar, Castro, Booker, Yang, or Gabbard.

  31. Wait. So, once again there is no path to 270 for Donald Trump.

    I wonder what the polling organizations have been smoking.

  32. “In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump’s election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men.”

    You will have to provide the names of the “wiser men”. Generally whether republican or democrat the country was pretty fed up with where the country was before Nominee Trump was elected.

    The report regarding Afgahnistan is largely indicative of the leadership of the wiser men I think you mean. And that report blisters democratic wise men as much as not.

    Nor as many wiser men as you’d like.

  33. @Lot
    GA and TX are mirages for the Dems. Their best path to winning is retaking MI/PA/WI.

    White-hating pundits ignore this because it requires getting icky WWC votes. But such voters have regularly voted for Dems, including in 2018. Getting a small number of Obama-Obama-Trump voters to swing back is far more realistic than getting a massive number of TX Hispanics who have never voted before to do so.

    Raising minority turnout doesn’t sound hard in theory. But if it were remotely possible, some Democrat in TX would have done it already, somewhere, even just one example of it.

    Wrt Texas: have to look at it by county. Statewide GOP does OK because they lose by small margins in the big counties, but generally win by large margins in the small counties. With each election cycle, the Dem margin of victory in the big counties is growing, so there is a good chance that will change statewide outcomes. Maybe not 2024, but if not, I suspect 2024 will be the GOP’s last hurrah.

    • Agree: houston 1992
  34. I love polls but I think it’s too early. Trump will have a big budget and will be able to paint his competition in a negative light. Plus he will brag about the economy even if it’s a bubble. He is a fighter by nature and won’t just lay down and lose politely like Romney did.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  35. We are operating in a cloud at the moment. And despite the fact that the impeachment is nonsensical and maliscious, i think ie has an impact on people immediate senses.

    I agree that we have a long ways to go and that this remains the president’s election to lose. It would have been helpful if he had diligently governed. And really pressed the domestic issues forcing the democrats to defend all the positions the country dislikes, but that can still come into play.

    In some ways, I think the president likes the drama

    laugh.

    And campaigning is going to be a very different front. That is the transition that i wish had been faster. From politician to administrator of policy.

  36. @neutral
    Seek help, you are very clearly disturbed.

    Regarding Samdu Coultonish, you can only help yourself by engaging the ignore button.

    • Agree: Sol
  37. @Buck
    2020 is Trump's election to lose IF the economy keeps chugging along AND nothing comes from the impeachment. Polling data at this point is pretty silly because much can happen in the next year. In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn't been a train wreck. Most of the Never Trump right has morphed into OK, Trump. I just don't see many defections from the right.

    The Democrats only real hope is to boost turnout in swing states. None of their leading candidates seem inspiring. They could all add Stacy Abrams as their veep and that would probably do the trick. The Democrats must have black women come out in droves to flip Georgia and have any hope at Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. Then again, Abrams couldn't even take Georgia and Kemp was a pretty bad candidate.

    But then I thought Kamala Harris was a pretty good candidate on paper.

    Russian Bot Alert –> “In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck.”

    He has not built a wall, he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy, he engaged in a quid pro quo, and he lies repeatedly. Oh, and he loves Jews.

    That said, the polling is way too early, and I would surmise citizens have already made up their mind who they will vote for. Haven’t we learned from 2016 (or Kansas gubernatorial races) about predictions?

    • Replies: @216
    How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?

    All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting.
    , @Peripatetic Commenter

    He has not built a wall,
     
    He has built more wall than the last three presidents and is on track to have one fully built by November next year. He has also reduced the amount of illegal immigration into the US.

    he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy,
     
    If you want to bring money back into the country where it can do some good, you have to reduce taxes. In any event, he also cut taxes for the not so well off.

    he engaged in a quid pro quo
     
    Which QPQ? Ohhh, you mean getting Ukraine to follow up on the terms of the mutual-assistance treaty between the US and Ukraine to investigate corruption instigated by US politicians.

    and he lies repeatedly.
     
    Projection. You lie far more than he does.
     
    , @A123
    We have more wall built under Trump than Obama. We have had more immigration enforcement (ICE activity) under Trump than Obama. We all want more, better, faster..... However, Trump has been limited by the Deep State left.

    As a practical matter -- Trump will be infinitely better than the anti-Christian, Globalist, racist, Soros-funded, DNC candidate. Voters understand this, and that will be more clear once the campaign becomes one-on-one.

    The anti-Jew, White Nationalist & Muslim voters knew about Trump's family before the last election. And, they voted against him. However, the leftist WN movement is small & the leftist Muslim movement is smaller. They can not move the needle in U.S. elections.

    PEACE 😇

    , @afasfdasd
    Can you just go away, Corfagus? You're such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor--and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn't have enough to keep you satisfied--hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn't want you here at all.
  38. @Realist
    Polls at this point are useless...if not always.

    Agreed.
    What is not shown, is where the polls were taken. Urban USA votes Democrat, rural USA votes Republican. This article from 2016 made the most sense of anything I’d seen
    https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
    The 2016 polls were being fixed for Clinton to create a bandwagon effect. That’s why she was 90% sure to be elected. These polls will be irrelevant because, as Jeff Rense predicted well over a year ago, Clinton will run and be the nominee.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    There were two key pieces of analysis needed to understand the 2016 election.

    I have seen _no_ articles that explained both of them.

    I know of no political analyst that understands both of them.

    If you don't get them _both_ right you cannot predict 2020 correctly.

    (1) Black turnout. Blacks turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They did not turn out for Hillary in 2016. The Democrats have no candidate that will get 2008/2012 like black turnout numbers. That is one reason they have to be the underdog in 2020 (regardless of "poll numbers") in states like PA, WI, MI that doomed them in 2016.

    (2) You need to look at the counties that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016.
    There were a fair number of them. You need to understand where they were and what issues influenced them.
    Many of them were rust belt rural areas. The Democrats have no candidate that has anything to offer them but insults.

    I just don't see the Democrats learning _anything_ from 2016, so I have to predict this election will be a rerun of 2016.

    Trump is still Trump. The Democrats are still the Democrats.

  39. @Realist
    Polls at this point are useless...if not always.

    Agreed.
    What is not shown, is where the polls were taken. Urban USA votes Democrat, rural USA votes Republican. This article from 2016 made the most sense of anything I’d seen
    https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
    The 2016 polls were being fixed for Clinton to create a bandwagon effect. That’s why she was 90% sure to be elected. These polls will be irrelevant because, as Jeff Rense predicted well over a year ago, Clinton will run and be the nominee.

  40. Self-Determination

  41. @Corvinus
    Russian Bot Alert --> "In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck."

    He has not built a wall, he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy, he engaged in a quid pro quo, and he lies repeatedly. Oh, and he loves Jews.

    That said, the polling is way too early, and I would surmise citizens have already made up their mind who they will vote for. Haven't we learned from 2016 (or Kansas gubernatorial races) about predictions?

    How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?

    All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?"

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office? Regardless, I'm an educated, married white man who makes his own decisions about race and culture. Leftist? Surely you jest.

    "All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting."

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican. He's an (alleged) anti-globalist, anti-corruption fighter. And there is no "attack" here, just the unvarnished truth regarding Trump's record.
  42. @Anonymous
    Trump needs to improve his performance with whites by about 1% to win in a similar blowout to 2016. With that 1% he can hold the rust belt, add New Hampshire and Nevada, and win the EC by well over 100 with a “popular vote” loss.

    I fully expect him to do so. A not insignificant number of straight-R voting, educated whites sat out 2016 or voted for McMullin or whoever. The last 3 years have shown the Trumpian Bargain to be a much better choice than a protest vote. We’re not beaten yet.

    The best scenario for the GOP next year:

    1. Economy is doing well, labor participation ticks up 1-2 points. Wage growth continues

    2. Divisive Dem primary, brokered convention, unenthusiastic running mate like Deval Patrick

    3. Turnout drops

    4. No eruptions of “war on women” talk from the GOP, the socon crazy uncle is safely kept in the attic

    5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest

    6. Trump moderates on fiscal policy, also moderates on temperment.

    • Replies: @Lot
    “ 5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest”

    That’s not good for Trump at all.

    There’s no possible China deal that’s as good for the USA and rustbelt voters as no deal + more and heavier China tariffs.
  43. @Corvinus
    Russian Bot Alert --> "In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck."

    He has not built a wall, he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy, he engaged in a quid pro quo, and he lies repeatedly. Oh, and he loves Jews.

    That said, the polling is way too early, and I would surmise citizens have already made up their mind who they will vote for. Haven't we learned from 2016 (or Kansas gubernatorial races) about predictions?

    He has not built a wall,

    He has built more wall than the last three presidents and is on track to have one fully built by November next year. He has also reduced the amount of illegal immigration into the US.

    he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy,

    If you want to bring money back into the country where it can do some good, you have to reduce taxes. In any event, he also cut taxes for the not so well off.

    he engaged in a quid pro quo

    Which QPQ? Ohhh, you mean getting Ukraine to follow up on the terms of the mutual-assistance treaty between the US and Ukraine to investigate corruption instigated by US politicians.

    and he lies repeatedly.

    Projection. You lie far more than he does.

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "He has built more wall than the last three presidents and is on track to have one fully built by November next year. He has also reduced the amount of illegal immigration into the US."

    To date (August 2019), the administration has replaced about 60 miles of dilapidated barriers with new fencing. And a major component of Trump’s pledge — that Mexico would pay for the wall — hasn’t been part of the equation. U.S. taxpayers have paid the cost.

    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2019/aug/30/donald-trumps-border-wall-how-much-has-really-been

    "So right now, 78 miles have been built, have been built where there was an existing form of barrier," [Acting CBP Commissioner Mark] Morgan said, effectively admitting that none of the wall that has been constructed has been in new areas.

    For the record, I have no problem with rebuilding and/or replacing our border wall. But Trump has failed to deliver on his campaign promise.

    https://www.newsweek.com/cbp-no-new-border-wall-1472077

    "If you want to bring money back into the country where it can do some good, you have to reduce taxes."

    So what has been its level of effectiveness accomplishing that task?

    https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tax-cut-effects-20190529-story.html

    Perhaps if Trump, like past presidents, would offer up his tax returns, we can see how much money he personally has "brought back" to our nation.

    Of course, it would help that we stop outsourcing jobs. How has Trump fared here, besides having had his own merchandise made overseas?

    https://www.citizen.org/news/trump-touts-pledge-to-americas-workers-anniversary-while-participating-firms-that-promised-new-american-jobs-outsource-trump-rewards-outsourcers-with-billions-in-contracts/

    "Ohhh, you mean getting Ukraine to follow up on the terms of the mutual-assistance treaty between the US and Ukraine to investigate corruption instigated by US politicians."

    No, I mean how President Trump employed one of his henchmen to find dirt on a political rival, rather than going through the proper legal channels. You have an odd way of describing patently questionable conduct.

    "Projection. You lie far more than he does."

    LOL. I don't tweet, and I don't have his knack for outright lying on a continual basis. As far as your charge is concerned, you're going to have to definitively prove it or retract your statement. You have much work to do.
  44. @Corvinus
    Russian Bot Alert --> "In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck."

    He has not built a wall, he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy, he engaged in a quid pro quo, and he lies repeatedly. Oh, and he loves Jews.

    That said, the polling is way too early, and I would surmise citizens have already made up their mind who they will vote for. Haven't we learned from 2016 (or Kansas gubernatorial races) about predictions?

    We have more wall built under Trump than Obama. We have had more immigration enforcement (ICE activity) under Trump than Obama. We all want more, better, faster….. However, Trump has been limited by the Deep State left.

    As a practical matter — Trump will be infinitely better than the anti-Christian, Globalist, racist, Soros-funded, DNC candidate. Voters understand this, and that will be more clear once the campaign becomes one-on-one.

    The anti-Jew, White Nationalist & Muslim voters knew about Trump’s family before the last election. And, they voted against him. However, the leftist WN movement is small & the leftist Muslim movement is smaller. They can not move the needle in U.S. elections.

    PEACE 😇

  45. Microcosm

    Why our people lose

    The left punishes traitors, we don’t.

    Consumerism, particularly the symbolic and snake oil kind, is our bread and butter.

    • Agree: Old and grumpy, Bill
    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    There's actually nobody in line in that picture
  46. @Lot
    I think fair value for GOP wins 2020 is around 41.

    Biden wins the Nom I think is a good bet.

    How many times has a party failed to nominate their best general election candidate?

    Only example I can think of is HRC over Bernie in 2016. And in that case, Bernie’s better polling wasn’t well covered by the media.

    hmm
    1972: Muskie would have been stronger than McGovern,
    in 1980 perhaps Teddy Kennedy would have been stronger than Carter,
    1984: Gary Hart > Fritz Mondale
    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
    2016: Sanders with his old immigration realism >> Hillary

    Republican nominees
    1960 Gov Rockefeller/ Cabot Lodge > Nixon
    1976: Reagan >> Ford
    1988, 1992 Dole> Bush 41
    2008 : Pierre Delecto >> John McCain
    2012: anyone but Pierre Delecto > Pierrre Delecto

    • Replies: @Lot
    72, 80, 84, 88, 08 and 12 were inevitable landslides.

    I don’t agree on 1960.

    Nixon carried 4 Southern states worth 40+ EVs. Liberal HC Lodge would not have.

    Nixon won his home state with 32 EVs by 0.5%. Would Lodge have won Cal after beating the home state fav in the primary? Northern liberal Republicans like Lodge lost badly in 44 and 48.

    I don’t see why Dole would have been stronger than Bush 41.

    76? Maybe, but probably not. The public was still in a liberal mood after Vietnam and Watergate. Ford won 40EVs in the NE, Reagan might have been shut out there, as well as losing MI (21) and IL (26). Reagan would have done better than Ford in the South, but enough to make up for doing worse in the midwest and NE? Carter won TN and NC by 10+ points, many other states by 4+.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    I had to refresh myself on Pierre Delecto, ha!
    , @Kevin O'Keeffe

    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
     
    Neither Bentsen or Nunn were candidates in 1988, however.

    Never-the-less, you're still correct. It's just that you should've referenced Richard Gephardt and Al Gore in your example as alternates to the Duke.*

    *for whom I voted, as I always enjoy noting....still better than a member of the Bush family

    , @Curmudgeon
    You seem to be ignoring the massive vote fraud in Illinois, particularly Chicago, where more votes were cast than there were voters, including lots of the dead ones showing up to vote for Kennedy. Nixon did the honorable thing, not the right thing, by accepting the fraudulent result that would have given him the election.
  47. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    I don't know why people are surprised.

    Trump in reality did almost nothing to stop the seismic demographic shift going on. He also cucked and refused to make the GOP the white party. Non whites don't vote Republican.

    Simple math dictates the GOP is running out of time.

    Somehow this math does not compute with GOP people or Boomers. I have explained this so many times to people, but they always just give me a blank stare. They short circuit to avoid the truth, and mumble something like "well we need to increase our poc outreach programs"...

    And btw - people of colour would vote for the GOP MORE if it was unequivocally the white folks' party, just saying. They hate weak white cucks like the GOP.

    Exactly, I feel like other non whites would support the GOP if they made themselves the party of White Civilization, which is why they are all here in the United States.
    Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers. Even if Republicans were pro-immigration, why would any working class nonwhite support them?

    Republicans need to make the explicit argument that a more White America will be better for nonwhites payroll than a less White America. Even Hispanics, Arabs, and Asians can tell that they will do better in a America with Seattle’s demographics than Detroit’s, and one that wont send their kids to die fighting some random Neocon fetish.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    The far more optical way to do this is to argue for an immigration moratorium. It has the same effect, and most whites are fine with and even prefer that effect so long as the effect is never made explicit.
    , @Thomasina
    "Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers."

    And the Democrats aren't?

    Who went into Libya and overthrew a sovereign government? Who said, "We came, we saw, he died" after being told Gaddafi had just been murdered? Who took Libya's gold? Who shipped Libya's weapons on to Syria? The Democrats.

    Who went into Syria and tried to overthrow a sovereign country? The Democrats.

    Who orchestated the Maidan coup in Ukraine? The Democrats.

    Who started the Russiagate hoax? The Democrats.

    Who started the Ukrainegate hoax? The Democrats.

    Who personally withheld funds from Ukraine until an investigation into Burisma Holdings was stopped, a company that his own son (with no oil and gas experience) was earning approximately $80,000.00/month as a board member? Joe Biden, a Democrat.

    Who bailed out the Wall Street bankers in 2008? Barack Obama and the Democrats.

    Who made sure not one banker saw any jail time? Eric Holder and the Democrats.

    Who was using her own servers (that she knew was unlawful) in order to hide her pay-for-play scheme with foreign governments, money that ended up being funneled into the Clinton Foundation? Hillary Clinton.

    I could go on and on. BOTH parties are beholden to Wall Street and the warmongers. The Democrat sold out the little person decades ago.

    I truly believe that Trump would have closed the borders had he not been stopped by both the Democrats and those Republicans who are beholden to corporate interests.

    I am amazed that people are not better informed.
  48. This always happens during every primary season. When it’s “generic Democrat candidate vs. incumbent Republican”, all of the polls say Democrat, but when there is an actual candidate chosen and no other alternatives, the polls all flip.

    If 2020 goes 368-170 against Trump, I will eat my hat. In favor of Trump, I wouldn’t even be that surprised.

  49. @houston 1992
    hmm
    1972: Muskie would have been stronger than McGovern,
    in 1980 perhaps Teddy Kennedy would have been stronger than Carter,
    1984: Gary Hart > Fritz Mondale
    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
    2016: Sanders with his old immigration realism >> Hillary

    Republican nominees
    1960 Gov Rockefeller/ Cabot Lodge > Nixon
    1976: Reagan >> Ford
    1988, 1992 Dole> Bush 41
    2008 : Pierre Delecto >> John McCain
    2012: anyone but Pierre Delecto > Pierrre Delecto

    72, 80, 84, 88, 08 and 12 were inevitable landslides.

    I don’t agree on 1960.

    Nixon carried 4 Southern states worth 40+ EVs. Liberal HC Lodge would not have.

    Nixon won his home state with 32 EVs by 0.5%. Would Lodge have won Cal after beating the home state fav in the primary? Northern liberal Republicans like Lodge lost badly in 44 and 48.

    I don’t see why Dole would have been stronger than Bush 41.

    76? Maybe, but probably not. The public was still in a liberal mood after Vietnam and Watergate. Ford won 40EVs in the NE, Reagan might have been shut out there, as well as losing MI (21) and IL (26). Reagan would have done better than Ford in the South, but enough to make up for doing worse in the midwest and NE? Carter won TN and NC by 10+ points, many other states by 4+.

    • Replies: @houston 1992
    fair enough,
    1976
    A Reagan/ Rockefeller ticket with Cal and NY might have won, but perhaps both men loathed each other's politics.

    2)If the DS had not removed Nixon, what Republican ticket would have won in 1976? Gov Connolly/ Charles Percy?
    If he had not been crippled in 1972, and no H2Ogate, would Gov. Wallace have captured the Dem nomination?
  50. @216
    The best scenario for the GOP next year:

    1. Economy is doing well, labor participation ticks up 1-2 points. Wage growth continues

    2. Divisive Dem primary, brokered convention, unenthusiastic running mate like Deval Patrick

    3. Turnout drops

    4. No eruptions of "war on women" talk from the GOP, the socon crazy uncle is safely kept in the attic

    5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest

    6. Trump moderates on fiscal policy, also moderates on temperment.

    “ 5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest”

    That’s not good for Trump at all.

    There’s no possible China deal that’s as good for the USA and rustbelt voters as no deal + more and heavier China tariffs.

    • Replies: @216
    It's the prisoners dillema

    Where both prisoners cooperate, a deal is signed satisfactory to both

    Where China bets Trump loses, and Trump wins again, China must capitulate

    Where China bets Trump wins, and makes a deal, but Trump loses, China isn't out much and the Dems pocket the win

    Where China bets Trump loses, doesnt make a deal, Dems capitulate
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Trump's dragged out the China trade talks forever. We're now allegedly going to get phases of the deal, but even that's indefinite. What's probably best for Trump is the prospect of a deal--one that's great great great for Americans, of course!--that won't be able to finalized until after the election.
  51. @Lot
    “ 5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest”

    That’s not good for Trump at all.

    There’s no possible China deal that’s as good for the USA and rustbelt voters as no deal + more and heavier China tariffs.

    It’s the prisoners dillema

    Where both prisoners cooperate, a deal is signed satisfactory to both

    Where China bets Trump loses, and Trump wins again, China must capitulate

    Where China bets Trump wins, and makes a deal, but Trump loses, China isn’t out much and the Dems pocket the win

    Where China bets Trump loses, doesnt make a deal, Dems capitulate

  52. Fuck this is depressing. The daily slander and hate mongering against white men is now a fixture of popular culture and it will only get worse. More great white defendants, more self-righteous and black womxn rambling incoherently about critical theory and how society is insufficiently appreciative of their hair.
    Once the left takes full power, American free speech exceptionalism will fall by the wayside. Hate speech restrictions will emerge and anyone that departs from woke orthodoxy will be threatened with criminal liability.

    As a zoomer it is hard to feel optimistic about anything

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    It's the ones with their backs against the wall who will do what needs to be done to save us all. Don't tap out--we need you!
    , @Sin City Milla
    We are entering an age of religious wars. Voting n polls are irrelevant. Since voting is just a form of speech, when speech can be suppressed as a harmful act, voting the wrong way becomes a crime. Supposedly the first amendment protects freedom of political speech from an established state religion. But we now have a state religion, the PC Diversity Cult. While the Supreme Court fiddles, the new state religion is suppressing free speech everywhere, attacking not just the bill of rights but the entire Constitution.
  53. @Curmudgeon
    Agreed.
    What is not shown, is where the polls were taken. Urban USA votes Democrat, rural USA votes Republican. This article from 2016 made the most sense of anything I'd seen
    https://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
    The 2016 polls were being fixed for Clinton to create a bandwagon effect. That's why she was 90% sure to be elected. These polls will be irrelevant because, as Jeff Rense predicted well over a year ago, Clinton will run and be the nominee.

    There were two key pieces of analysis needed to understand the 2016 election.

    I have seen _no_ articles that explained both of them.

    I know of no political analyst that understands both of them.

    If you don’t get them _both_ right you cannot predict 2020 correctly.

    (1) Black turnout. Blacks turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They did not turn out for Hillary in 2016. The Democrats have no candidate that will get 2008/2012 like black turnout numbers. That is one reason they have to be the underdog in 2020 (regardless of “poll numbers”) in states like PA, WI, MI that doomed them in 2016.

    (2) You need to look at the counties that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016.
    There were a fair number of them. You need to understand where they were and what issues influenced them.
    Many of them were rust belt rural areas. The Democrats have no candidate that has anything to offer them but insults.

    I just don’t see the Democrats learning _anything_ from 2016, so I have to predict this election will be a rerun of 2016.

    Trump is still Trump. The Democrats are still the Democrats.

    • Replies: @216
    1 mln naturalized per annum

    Silent Gen dropping like flies

    We need Self Determination
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders has been careful not to spit on Trump supporters, at least so far as I'm aware. He is unique among top-tier Democrats in this regard.
  54. @Justvisiting
    There were two key pieces of analysis needed to understand the 2016 election.

    I have seen _no_ articles that explained both of them.

    I know of no political analyst that understands both of them.

    If you don't get them _both_ right you cannot predict 2020 correctly.

    (1) Black turnout. Blacks turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They did not turn out for Hillary in 2016. The Democrats have no candidate that will get 2008/2012 like black turnout numbers. That is one reason they have to be the underdog in 2020 (regardless of "poll numbers") in states like PA, WI, MI that doomed them in 2016.

    (2) You need to look at the counties that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016.
    There were a fair number of them. You need to understand where they were and what issues influenced them.
    Many of them were rust belt rural areas. The Democrats have no candidate that has anything to offer them but insults.

    I just don't see the Democrats learning _anything_ from 2016, so I have to predict this election will be a rerun of 2016.

    Trump is still Trump. The Democrats are still the Democrats.

    1 mln naturalized per annum

    Silent Gen dropping like flies

    We need Self Determination

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    We need Self Determination
     
    So what's your plan to achieve that?
    , @RadicalCenter
    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence. And it seems that that is what we are going to get eventually on our current trajectory. Not good for our children or anyone else's.
  55. @216
    How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?

    All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting.

    “How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?”

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office? Regardless, I’m an educated, married white man who makes his own decisions about race and culture. Leftist? Surely you jest.

    “All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting.”

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican. He’s an (alleged) anti-globalist, anti-corruption fighter. And there is no “attack” here, just the unvarnished truth regarding Trump’s record.

    • Replies: @216

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office?
     
    Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican.
     
    Wat

    Stop drunk posting
    , @Beefcake the Mighty
    You’re a cuck.
  56. @gman
    Ohio as blue in all three scenarios seems aggressive for Dems. Trump won it in 2016 52-44.

    My view is that the nominee AND the running mate are going to matter. I actually do think if Hillary picked someone other than Tim Kaine, she could have one

    For the reasons outlined here ( https://blog.politicalalertengine.com/dems-should-pass-on-kamala-as-vp ), I think Harris is a bad running mate.

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Get Destroyed
    Buttigieg-Harris
    Warren-Castro

    Sanders is high-risk/high-reward IMO (with a Sanders nomination, you do better in places like the Midwest but establishment may secretly prefer a Trump win; also if Sanders were to win, a third-party centrist candidate may appear)

    Running mates historically make essentially no difference. If a difference, it’s negative preception.

    People vote for the President, not the Vice President.

    Tim Kaine made no difference positive or negative. It was so close Hillary could have done a lot of stuff to win–not make the deplorables comment, campaign for blue collar whites … but she’s Hillary so acted like Hillary. But Kaine had nothing to do with it.

    I do agree however that Harris would be a terrifically bad pick. She potentially has the fingernails on the chalkboard appeal–sufficiently negative to drag down the ticket. But she will not be picked–she demonstrated her lack of appeal in the primary.

    • Replies: @gman
    I disagree

    For example, I do think Hillary would have had a better chance with a black ADOS running mate (such as Deval Patrick) as she would have increased black turnout. A progressive may have also been a smart move given the Sanders enthusiasm.

    I do think Biden as an old, white establishment figure was a good choice as Obama was young, black, and "progressive"

    I actually do think Sarah Palin was a good choice and if McCain had picked Lieberman (as was reported he was going to do) he would have gotten fewer votes

    I do think Mitt Romney could have gotten more votes with someone other than Paul Ryan.

    I would say in the case of Trump, it probably wouldn't matter.
  57. @Peripatetic Commenter

    He has not built a wall,
     
    He has built more wall than the last three presidents and is on track to have one fully built by November next year. He has also reduced the amount of illegal immigration into the US.

    he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy,
     
    If you want to bring money back into the country where it can do some good, you have to reduce taxes. In any event, he also cut taxes for the not so well off.

    he engaged in a quid pro quo
     
    Which QPQ? Ohhh, you mean getting Ukraine to follow up on the terms of the mutual-assistance treaty between the US and Ukraine to investigate corruption instigated by US politicians.

    and he lies repeatedly.
     
    Projection. You lie far more than he does.
     

    “He has built more wall than the last three presidents and is on track to have one fully built by November next year. He has also reduced the amount of illegal immigration into the US.”

    To date (August 2019), the administration has replaced about 60 miles of dilapidated barriers with new fencing. And a major component of Trump’s pledge — that Mexico would pay for the wall — hasn’t been part of the equation. U.S. taxpayers have paid the cost.

    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2019/aug/30/donald-trumps-border-wall-how-much-has-really-been

    “So right now, 78 miles have been built, have been built where there was an existing form of barrier,” [Acting CBP Commissioner Mark] Morgan said, effectively admitting that none of the wall that has been constructed has been in new areas.

    For the record, I have no problem with rebuilding and/or replacing our border wall. But Trump has failed to deliver on his campaign promise.

    https://www.newsweek.com/cbp-no-new-border-wall-1472077

    “If you want to bring money back into the country where it can do some good, you have to reduce taxes.”

    So what has been its level of effectiveness accomplishing that task?

    https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tax-cut-effects-20190529-story.html

    Perhaps if Trump, like past presidents, would offer up his tax returns, we can see how much money he personally has “brought back” to our nation.

    Of course, it would help that we stop outsourcing jobs. How has Trump fared here, besides having had his own merchandise made overseas?

    https://www.citizen.org/news/trump-touts-pledge-to-americas-workers-anniversary-while-participating-firms-that-promised-new-american-jobs-outsource-trump-rewards-outsourcers-with-billions-in-contracts/

    “Ohhh, you mean getting Ukraine to follow up on the terms of the mutual-assistance treaty between the US and Ukraine to investigate corruption instigated by US politicians.”

    No, I mean how President Trump employed one of his henchmen to find dirt on a political rival, rather than going through the proper legal channels. You have an odd way of describing patently questionable conduct.

    “Projection. You lie far more than he does.”

    LOL. I don’t tweet, and I don’t have his knack for outright lying on a continual basis. As far as your charge is concerned, you’re going to have to definitively prove it or retract your statement. You have much work to do.

    • Replies: @WJ
    HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard.

    Regarding Ukraine - you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won't get behind. You damage your credibility when you advocate for such silliness.

    The same with lies - you aren't so naive to think that BO didn't lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C'mon.

    Economics. BO had eight years of basically zero interest rates while DJT had eight interest rate hikes in his first two years.

    As usual, it's a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land.
  58. @Corvinus
    "How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?"

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office? Regardless, I'm an educated, married white man who makes his own decisions about race and culture. Leftist? Surely you jest.

    "All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting."

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican. He's an (alleged) anti-globalist, anti-corruption fighter. And there is no "attack" here, just the unvarnished truth regarding Trump's record.

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office?

    Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican.

    Wat

    Stop drunk posting

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?"

    Romney, last time I checked, is content with being a Senator and not running for the presidency.

    "Stop drunk posting"

    I'm not the one quaffing down Trumpism like others here on this fine blog. Trump is not a GOP, not a Republican. He is marketing his own brand. He saw an opening, took advantage of it, and won against a brutally weak candidate in Shitlery. Praytell, what was his political ideology before running for the presidency? Was he consistently touting "conservative values" or the "Alt Right agenda"? Was he openly supporting the Republican legislative agenda while a private citizen? Has he become distant or more cozy with the Jewish lobby since becoming chief executive?

    Many questions for you to consider. Here. have a shot of Jameson on me...

    https://drizly.com/liquor/whiskey/irish-whiskey/jameson-irish-whiskey/p5138
  59. In the run-up to the previous election I thought Trump might win, then after the Brexit vote won, showing the polls to be incorrect in that case, I thought Trump probably would win. Mainstream commentators, as we know, thought he didn’t have a chance.

    This time around I haven’t been following things so closely; I don’t feel like I have my finger on the pulse, so I wouldn’t be surprised to be wrong, yet I don’t see how Trump can win with extra turn out from all those who thought he had no chance to win last time, but this time will vote to make sure Orange Hitler can’t win again.

  60. @WorkingClass
    I googled retarded baby boomers but did not look beyond the first page of results. I found lots of references to retarded baby boomers but nothing about the actual prevalence of mental retardation among that cohort. I brought back this tidbit.

    The majority of baby boomers support their adult children

    According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39. There are several potential reasons for this, such as record-high student-debt levels and a difficult job market for recent college graduates.
     
    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/07/29/9-baby-boomer-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx

    Are there a significant number of Americans who hate their parents and grand parents?

    I was born in '44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION. I was a great baby. And I can tell you that the world was already fucked up when the Boomers got here. And it will still be fucked up when you are done with it.

    I was born in ’44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION.

    Guess again.

    • LOL: iffen
  61. @AnotherDad
    Running mates historically make essentially no difference. If a difference, it's negative preception.

    People vote for the President, not the Vice President.

    Tim Kaine made no difference positive or negative. It was so close Hillary could have done a lot of stuff to win--not make the deplorables comment, campaign for blue collar whites ... but she's Hillary so acted like Hillary. But Kaine had nothing to do with it.

    I do agree however that Harris would be a terrifically bad pick. She potentially has the fingernails on the chalkboard appeal--sufficiently negative to drag down the ticket. But she will not be picked--she demonstrated her lack of appeal in the primary.

    I disagree

    For example, I do think Hillary would have had a better chance with a black ADOS running mate (such as Deval Patrick) as she would have increased black turnout. A progressive may have also been a smart move given the Sanders enthusiasm.

    I do think Biden as an old, white establishment figure was a good choice as Obama was young, black, and “progressive”

    I actually do think Sarah Palin was a good choice and if McCain had picked Lieberman (as was reported he was going to do) he would have gotten fewer votes

    I do think Mitt Romney could have gotten more votes with someone other than Paul Ryan.

    I would say in the case of Trump, it probably wouldn’t matter.

  62. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    ‘… The good news is that the extreme Left isn’t bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.’

    It’s a pity you’re completely wrong about that.

  63. I join the commenter above who aptly said, this is depressing. And, as Ron Unz would say, I had been laboring under a misconception; I had thought that the Californianization of the country would not occur until 2024, but now I see that it likely will take hold 4 years sooner than that.

  64. @Lot
    72, 80, 84, 88, 08 and 12 were inevitable landslides.

    I don’t agree on 1960.

    Nixon carried 4 Southern states worth 40+ EVs. Liberal HC Lodge would not have.

    Nixon won his home state with 32 EVs by 0.5%. Would Lodge have won Cal after beating the home state fav in the primary? Northern liberal Republicans like Lodge lost badly in 44 and 48.

    I don’t see why Dole would have been stronger than Bush 41.

    76? Maybe, but probably not. The public was still in a liberal mood after Vietnam and Watergate. Ford won 40EVs in the NE, Reagan might have been shut out there, as well as losing MI (21) and IL (26). Reagan would have done better than Ford in the South, but enough to make up for doing worse in the midwest and NE? Carter won TN and NC by 10+ points, many other states by 4+.

    fair enough,
    1976
    A Reagan/ Rockefeller ticket with Cal and NY might have won, but perhaps both men loathed each other’s politics.

    2)If the DS had not removed Nixon, what Republican ticket would have won in 1976? Gov Connolly/ Charles Percy?
    If he had not been crippled in 1972, and no H2Ogate, would Gov. Wallace have captured the Dem nomination?

  65. @Diversity Heretic
    I'm surprised to see Iowa in the Red State camp in all of these polls. My read of Iowa is that it will swing Democratic in 2020. I know it's only six electoral votes, but at this point, Trump needs every state he can get.

    There's simply no way any reasonably-informed Republican can look at the electoral college map with any degree of optimism.

    As John Derbyshire puts it, “We are doomed”.

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    And we’re doomed in large part because of philo-Semites like the Derb.
  66. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    I don't know why people are surprised.

    Trump in reality did almost nothing to stop the seismic demographic shift going on. He also cucked and refused to make the GOP the white party. Non whites don't vote Republican.

    Simple math dictates the GOP is running out of time.

    Somehow this math does not compute with GOP people or Boomers. I have explained this so many times to people, but they always just give me a blank stare. They short circuit to avoid the truth, and mumble something like "well we need to increase our poc outreach programs"...

    And btw - people of colour would vote for the GOP MORE if it was unequivocally the white folks' party, just saying. They hate weak white cucks like the GOP.

    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party. They would vote for it in even lesser numbers if it were explicitly the white peoples’s party. It’s white people, simpliciter, that they hate.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party.
     
    Do you think maybe there's a tiny chance that the problem facing the Republicans is that they are explicitly the Rich People's Party?

    And that Trump's problem is that he has to a large extent confirmed this impression?

    Maybe race isn't quite as big an issue as you think. Why on earth would any non-rich person want to vote Republican?
  67. @WorkingClass
    I googled retarded baby boomers but did not look beyond the first page of results. I found lots of references to retarded baby boomers but nothing about the actual prevalence of mental retardation among that cohort. I brought back this tidbit.

    The majority of baby boomers support their adult children

    According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39. There are several potential reasons for this, such as record-high student-debt levels and a difficult job market for recent college graduates.
     
    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/07/29/9-baby-boomer-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx

    Are there a significant number of Americans who hate their parents and grand parents?

    I was born in '44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION. I was a great baby. And I can tell you that the world was already fucked up when the Boomers got here. And it will still be fucked up when you are done with it.

    Well, WC, I’m ’46 and a “Boomer”. Go eff yourself.

  68. The problem with polling data is that there is a huge discrepancy between polls of “likely voters” and “registered voters”. Most polls of “likely voters” show Trump at parity or ahead of the Democrats in swing states. Most polls of “registered voters” show Trump getting clobbered. It’s very hard to interpret what the data actually means, plus there is the whole methodological problem around using landlines for polling purposes.

    Second, the race is likely to tighten when an actual Democrat becomes the front-runner and secures the nomination, and there is a race to define the candidate negatively or positively. Trump is an incumbent, the economy and the unemployment numbers continue to hold, while clearly the East German Communist party (or whoever is the Minister of Propaganda in charge of our MSM) is continuing to provide exclusively negative coverage.

    I’d like to see Sanders get the nomination, because I imagine that overnight the MSM will turn on a dime for Trump when their billionaire owners face the possibility of having to pay their fair share in taxes.

  69. All this is meaningless.

    It’s kabuki theater. If the Left (the Deep State) gets fully back into power, the S will HTF.

    It’s a given. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that this was already war-gamed, and that the vertical, 10 year market rallies (bonds and stocks), coming after a 9 year bear market (2000-2009) and a stunningly vertical 1974/82-2000 moon-shot, will reverse a year from now (+/-) and that the Ruling Class’ behavior (doubling down on crushing “Deplorables’ Dissent”) will combine with rapidly growing economic hardship to set off a very real, very bloody revolution in the USA.

    Damn it, what is anyone looking at?!

    Run a graph of the DJIA from 1928 to now. Look at the St. Louis Fed’s FRED graph of TCMDO (total credit market debt outstanding.) READ Codevilla’s essay “Our Revolution’s Logic.” https://americanmind.org/essays/our-revolutions-logic/

    Then try, just try to tell me that a year from now, if Trump wins reelection and the Ruling Elite goes even more to war, or if the Demoncrat gets elected and near-literally unleashes the Dogs of War on MAGA-hat-wearing foes, that we’ll all just be hammering our keyboards while sipping coffee like always.

    We’re heading for a cataclysm, and the election is borderline irrelevant.

    • Replies: @Old and grumpy
    Replace bloody revolution with concentration camps, and you're spot on about the irrelevancy of the election. Orange man turns out to have been nothing but a Manchurian candidate. While the conservative seals clap at all that "winning", Trump actually has done nothing for them. Having said that, if the planned economic collapse doesn't happen during Trump's current term, he'll likely get a second one. Donny's financial debt to the global elite must be staggering .
    , @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    All the analysts are insider hacks. A lot of 'outsiders' are insider hacks without knowing it.
    They can't read the sweep of History.
    People voted for MAGA not Peak Jew. DJT IS PEAK JEW. The man is the most philo-semitic President we've ever had. It will be the basis of the 'Great Betrayal'. Historic White America votes for a white guy who turns out to be a closet Jew, gives Israel everything they want and then takes America, reluctantly, to war in Iran in his second term. The writing is on the Wall (that has not been built).
    When Middle America realizes that no matter who they vote for they get shafted is when the AR-15's come into play. Jew York City has no concept of what they are playing with. They think they can 'paper' things over, yet again, shaft whitey and manipulate the blacks. They don't get how exposed and completely naked they are. They are on tv every night shredding what little is left of their credibility to a smaller and smaller market share.

    The Jews have created this mess. They will eventually be held accountable and the best we can hope for is that they leave peacefully and legally but I wouldn't lay money on it. The Jew thinks they can squeeze more juice out of America. This is their never ending insanity. They are incapable of saying 'enough' and walking away. They have a large audience of Frau Trabman's who are deluded enough to think they can do no wrong. This has been their traditional echo chamber. Even this, however, is crumbling.

    The Jew elite response so far has been to double down, demand more censorship and demonize their enemies. Real smart. Then again, all the elites have other passports, right?
  70. @216
    Microcosm

    Why our people lose

    https://twitter.com/KristinnFR/status/1204503567513608192

    The left punishes traitors, we don't.

    Consumerism, particularly the symbolic and snake oil kind, is our bread and butter.

    There’s actually nobody in line in that picture

  71. Trump and the Republican Party are going to be electorally wiped out by the Libertarian Party and the White Core America Party and the Democrat Party.

    The Green Party will siphon votes away from the Democrat Party if any candidate but Bernie Sanders is the Democrat Party presidential nominee. But that won’t save Trump and the Republican Party politician whores from getting smashed to bits in the election.

    Biden looks like he has won the allegiance of two core voter cohorts of the Democrat Party presidential primary electorate: Black Lady Voters and Greedy White Geezers.

    Biden has done three brilliant things to secure the Democrat Party presidential nomination: 1) Biden has parlayed his VP loyalty to Obama into winning the Black Female Voter Primary — also known as the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY and 2) Biden has been around long enough that the Greedy White Geezers will stick with Blarney Boy Joe Biden — also known as the GREEDY WHITE GEEZER STRATEGY and 3) Biden had armpit hairs surgically removed from his armpits and then surgically and strategically transplanted onto his dumb bald head — also known as the BIDEN’S ARMPIT HAIR PLUG STRATEGY.

    Black lady voters and greedy White geezers are impressed by Biden’s stentorian accusations of obesity in Iowa voters and his flowing White armpit hair plugs on the top of his dumb bald head.

    I ain’t apologizing for this lame attempt at comedy writing!

    Biden’s armpit hair plugs never get stale to me comedically!

    Tweet from 2015:

  72. Thought experiment: A dem (any dem) wins in 2020 and Congress stays in the hands of the UniParty Majority. What will the Left do, emboldened by success?
    1. Ban guns. Bet on it, both state and federal bans (de facto or de jure) will come fast and furious.
    2. Impose today’s LGBT butt-sex coprophagia on schools but doubled and re-doubled.
    3. Every possible opportunity grab SWG (straight white guy) by the hair and ram his face into dog excrement will be instituted.

    Do you all think this can keep going, like the Energizer Bunny? Is Boobus Americanus so devoid of testosterone now that gang-raping men and women via politics can never generate revolt?

    Perhaps it’s time to re-read the 500 year old wisdom of Etienne de la Boetie.
    https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/boetie-the-discourse-of-voluntary-servitude

    What vice is it, or, rather, what degradation? To see an endless multitude of people not merely obeying, but driven to servility? Not ruled, but tyrannized over? These wretches have no wealth, no kin, nor wife nor children, not even life itself that they can call their own. They suffer plundering, wantonness, cruelty, not from an army, not from a barbarian horde, on account of whom they must shed their blood and sacrifice their lives, but from a single man; not from a Hercules nor from a Samson, but from a single little man. Too frequently this same little man is the most cowardly and effeminate in the nation, a stranger to the powder of battle and hesitant on the sands of the tournament; not only without energy to direct men by force, but with hardly enough virility to bed with a common woman! Shall we call subjection to such a leader cowardice? Shall we say that those who serve him are cowardly and faint-hearted? If two, if three, if four, do not defend themselves from the one, we might call that circumstance surprising but nevertheless conceivable. In such a case one might be justified in suspecting a lack of courage. But if a hundred, if a thousand endure the caprice of a single man, should we not rather say that they lack not the courage but the desire to rise against him, and that such an attitude indicates indifference rather than cowardice?

    Will Americans be forever indifferent to their rape by Blue Commissars, by the Nomenklatura of Sodom and Gomorrah?

    Count me skeptical.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    It depends on the economy.

    If it is strong the sheep will be content to obey the master.

    If not--the impossible will become normal.

    My definition of "bad economy" is when there is no debate and no lying statistics that can hide it.
    Even the starving journalists will get a clue.

    , @Audacious Epigone
    I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way. People will be scared, considerably more so even than in 2007/8, and a Republican senate will kill everything that comes from the House. Warren/Sanders will be forced to act with executive orders and flounder spectacularly in the process.
    , @Sin City Milla
    It is indeed very strange how American white males absolutely refuse to help each other, or even be civil to each other, unlike in almost every other country. They flock to join any organisation which has a woman at its head, but run like heck rather than cooperate with other white males. I can only assume they are all infected with self defeating individualism, or are shaking in their boots that someone might call them racist. They will just keep losing until they finally decide to work together.
  73. Anon[252] • Disclaimer says:

    Audacious where are you getting the Texas birthrate numbers from? Last I checked white births were slightly over 1 in 3 (hovering around ~35%), not 1 in 4. Still terrible and death for us in the long run, but not AS terrible.

    Also I’ll hold off on the inevitable doom-pill myself. I remember thinking there was no way Trump would win to the point where I just went to sleep early on election night because I “knew” Hillary had it in the bag and was going to win by massive amounts, only to get a call in the middle of the night from a friend telling me to ‘wake up and get online, you wont believe whats happening!’

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Just estimating from elementary school figures. But looking at CDC figures for 2018, you are exactly right, with just a hair under one-third being to n-H whites. I'll change it in the body of the post. Thanks.
  74. Unless the polls are by Richard Baris or Trafalgar they are utterly worthless.

    Trump picks up NH and MN. Should hold almost all the states he held before.

  75. @dc.sunsets
    Thought experiment: A dem (any dem) wins in 2020 and Congress stays in the hands of the UniParty Majority. What will the Left do, emboldened by success?
    1. Ban guns. Bet on it, both state and federal bans (de facto or de jure) will come fast and furious.
    2. Impose today's LGBT butt-sex coprophagia on schools but doubled and re-doubled.
    3. Every possible opportunity grab SWG (straight white guy) by the hair and ram his face into dog excrement will be instituted.

    Do you all think this can keep going, like the Energizer Bunny? Is Boobus Americanus so devoid of testosterone now that gang-raping men and women via politics can never generate revolt?

    Perhaps it's time to re-read the 500 year old wisdom of Etienne de la Boetie.
    https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/boetie-the-discourse-of-voluntary-servitude

    What vice is it, or, rather, what degradation? To see an endless multitude of people not merely obeying, but driven to servility? Not ruled, but tyrannized over? These wretches have no wealth, no kin, nor wife nor children, not even life itself that they can call their own. They suffer plundering, wantonness, cruelty, not from an army, not from a barbarian horde, on account of whom they must shed their blood and sacrifice their lives, but from a single man; not from a Hercules nor from a Samson, but from a single little man. Too frequently this same little man is the most cowardly and effeminate in the nation, a stranger to the powder of battle and hesitant on the sands of the tournament; not only without energy to direct men by force, but with hardly enough virility to bed with a common woman! Shall we call subjection to such a leader cowardice? Shall we say that those who serve him are cowardly and faint-hearted? If two, if three, if four, do not defend themselves from the one, we might call that circumstance surprising but nevertheless conceivable. In such a case one might be justified in suspecting a lack of courage. But if a hundred, if a thousand endure the caprice of a single man, should we not rather say that they lack not the courage but the desire to rise against him, and that such an attitude indicates indifference rather than cowardice?
     
    Will Americans be forever indifferent to their rape by Blue Commissars, by the Nomenklatura of Sodom and Gomorrah?

    Count me skeptical.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    It depends on the economy.

    If it is strong the sheep will be content to obey the master.

    If not–the impossible will become normal.

    My definition of “bad economy” is when there is no debate and no lying statistics that can hide it.
    Even the starving journalists will get a clue.

    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    I agree, sort of.

    Here's a bit of history: In the mid-1700's British subjects living in America enjoyed a significantly higher standard of living than did their cousins in England. Also, all of the legislation cited in the Declaration of Independence was repealed (one exception) before Lexington and Concord.

    Why did the American Revolution occur? Hint: everything you read in the history books was a lie, a complete and utter fabrication. People were well-off. But the colonists revolted anyway.

    It's nearly impossible for most people to accept, but the Big Things in history occurred spontaneously, not because of "evidence" cited in 20/20 hindsight, that forms the mythology-of-attribution we read in history books.

    As long as the fad, the fashion of collective "Everything Is Awesome" social mood persists (as evidenced by high prices for intangible assets like stocks and bonds), economic prosperity will be perceived to exist, and can-kicking will continue, and people will remain indifferent to being gang-raped by the demons they send to elected office.

    WHEN markets do, finally, eventually, belatedly end this incredibly long, credit-inflation-driven mania of social mood pinning 10 on a 10-scale for decade after decade (oh, it relaxed to about a 9 from 2000-2009), everything that exists NOW will be reframed under an entirely different set of (shared) premises.

    People will, like a flock of birds or a school of fish, simultaneously and spontaneously change direction, all at once. Wait for it, watch for it, knowing that when that time arrives, stock and bond prices will change FIRST, and only months later will economic aggregates demonstrate changes, and the headlines will "explain" the shift in direction, attributing it to coincident factors that were there, off and on, for the last three decades (but without "effect.")

    People think history is like physics (cause and effect, a ball in motion stays in motion.) On the contrary, it's mass psychology.

    In epidemiology, Koch's Postulates inform us that to attribute a disease to a specific bacterium or virus, we should find that every person with the disease also has the theorized causative agent, the causative agent can be isolated from every person with the disease, and giving the causative agent to another vulnerable animal (animal model) causes the disease to manifest. (*)

    History attributes to causes things that were present in other times but didn't cause the history then, and historic outcomes that are similar often have very different causes attributed. In other words, people just pick a randomly-present "cause" and hang attribution on it.

    Watching the news (esp. the financial news, e.g., "today's market fell because...." and "today's market rallied because....") is a belly laugh once you realize it's all just a joke.

    (*) The buttsex lobby got $Billions set aside for its members by attributing AIDS syndrome diseases to a retrovirus ("HIV.") Interestingly, the "HIV-causes-AIDS" thing violates Koch's Postulates. It is the only virus/disease theory to do so. Literally the ONLY ONE.

    PS: The American Revolution occurred at the end (just after the final low) of a 64 year bear market on the London Stock Exchange. Social mood was down, and as a bear market occurs, new lows tend to set off more catastrophic events...with war being the worst.

  76. @Justvisiting
    It depends on the economy.

    If it is strong the sheep will be content to obey the master.

    If not--the impossible will become normal.

    My definition of "bad economy" is when there is no debate and no lying statistics that can hide it.
    Even the starving journalists will get a clue.

    I agree, sort of.

    Here’s a bit of history: In the mid-1700’s British subjects living in America enjoyed a significantly higher standard of living than did their cousins in England. Also, all of the legislation cited in the Declaration of Independence was repealed (one exception) before Lexington and Concord.

    Why did the American Revolution occur? Hint: everything you read in the history books was a lie, a complete and utter fabrication. People were well-off. But the colonists revolted anyway.

    It’s nearly impossible for most people to accept, but the Big Things in history occurred spontaneously, not because of “evidence” cited in 20/20 hindsight, that forms the mythology-of-attribution we read in history books.

    As long as the fad, the fashion of collective “Everything Is Awesome” social mood persists (as evidenced by high prices for intangible assets like stocks and bonds), economic prosperity will be perceived to exist, and can-kicking will continue, and people will remain indifferent to being gang-raped by the demons they send to elected office.

    WHEN markets do, finally, eventually, belatedly end this incredibly long, credit-inflation-driven mania of social mood pinning 10 on a 10-scale for decade after decade (oh, it relaxed to about a 9 from 2000-2009), everything that exists NOW will be reframed under an entirely different set of (shared) premises.

    People will, like a flock of birds or a school of fish, simultaneously and spontaneously change direction, all at once. Wait for it, watch for it, knowing that when that time arrives, stock and bond prices will change FIRST, and only months later will economic aggregates demonstrate changes, and the headlines will “explain” the shift in direction, attributing it to coincident factors that were there, off and on, for the last three decades (but without “effect.”)

    People think history is like physics (cause and effect, a ball in motion stays in motion.) On the contrary, it’s mass psychology.

    In epidemiology, Koch’s Postulates inform us that to attribute a disease to a specific bacterium or virus, we should find that every person with the disease also has the theorized causative agent, the causative agent can be isolated from every person with the disease, and giving the causative agent to another vulnerable animal (animal model) causes the disease to manifest. (*)

    History attributes to causes things that were present in other times but didn’t cause the history then, and historic outcomes that are similar often have very different causes attributed. In other words, people just pick a randomly-present “cause” and hang attribution on it.

    Watching the news (esp. the financial news, e.g., “today’s market fell because….” and “today’s market rallied because….”) is a belly laugh once you realize it’s all just a joke.

    (*) The buttsex lobby got $Billions set aside for its members by attributing AIDS syndrome diseases to a retrovirus (“HIV.”) Interestingly, the “HIV-causes-AIDS” thing violates Koch’s Postulates. It is the only virus/disease theory to do so. Literally the ONLY ONE.

    PS: The American Revolution occurred at the end (just after the final low) of a 64 year bear market on the London Stock Exchange. Social mood was down, and as a bear market occurs, new lows tend to set off more catastrophic events…with war being the worst.

  77. @216

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office?
     
    Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican.
     
    Wat

    Stop drunk posting

    “Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?”

    Romney, last time I checked, is content with being a Senator and not running for the presidency.

    “Stop drunk posting”

    I’m not the one quaffing down Trumpism like others here on this fine blog. Trump is not a GOP, not a Republican. He is marketing his own brand. He saw an opening, took advantage of it, and won against a brutally weak candidate in Shitlery. Praytell, what was his political ideology before running for the presidency? Was he consistently touting “conservative values” or the “Alt Right agenda”? Was he openly supporting the Republican legislative agenda while a private citizen? Has he become distant or more cozy with the Jewish lobby since becoming chief executive?

    Many questions for you to consider. Here. have a shot of Jameson on me…

    https://drizly.com/liquor/whiskey/irish-whiskey/jameson-irish-whiskey/p5138

    • Replies: @Anon

    Trump is not a Republican.
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Donald_Trump

    On November 9, 2016, Republicans Donald Trump of New York and Governor Mike Pence of Indiana won the 2016 election
     
    , @RadicalCenter
    All that sounds sensible, except that it seems naive to think that Romney is no longer pining for the presidency. His desire to reach that height must be all the stronger because his father got close before his campaign fell apart in a humiliating fashion. His frustration is further intensified by the fact that he and trump despise each other, and he will have had to watch trump occupy that position for four or eight years.

    The Senate seat gives Romney something of a national platform, keeps him in the news to some degree when he wants to be in the news, keeps his name recognition going and his fundraising network strong. He can present himself (nauseatingly to some of us) as a “more tolerant, inclusive republican who doesn’t hate immigrants.”

    Romney doesn’t have an interest in a likely futile race against trump, or any other incumbent republican, to be sure. That is especially so given that such a contest would be unusually expensive and bitter and almost surely lead to the Dems beating the survivor in the general election (if only because enough of the losing GOP candidate’s most fervent supporters stay home).

    But Romney would love to run against a Democrat incumbent in 2024, especially if the next recession, depression, or major war (Iran) is allowed to hit on that Dem’s watch.

  78. Why did the American Revolution occur? Hint: everything you read in the history books was a lie, a complete and utter fabrication. People were well-off. But the colonists revolted anyway.

    The sectionalized colonial ruling classes — especially in Virginia and Massachusetts — thought they could get a better and bigger deal by exiting the British Empire than by staying in.

    Planter class tired of factors in England ripping them off and Massachusetts book people types — lawyers, merchants, traders…etc. — thinking they’d be better off without any British Empire bean counter middle men around clam raking loot they thought should rightfully be theirs.

    Sam Francis gets more and more right the older I get.

    It’s always about the current ruling class and the potential ruling class.

    White Core America is the new ruling class in waiting that will remove the evil and immoral JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire from power.

    Remember, the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire owns and controls the private consortium of banks called the Federal Reserve Bank.

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.

    It’s all about the JEW/WASP ruling class and monetary policy and demography.

    • Disagree: Robert Dolan
    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    You lost me with the distinction between "White Core" and WASP.

    The historic "core" of Post-Native-American America was (W)hite, (A)nglo-(S)axon and (P)rotestant. Love 'em or hate 'em, that was most of America before the 19th century waves of German, Italian and Irish immigration.

    My ancestors made this country, and then frankly pissed it away. Talk about screwing over your great(time "x") grandkids. Blame it on the Episcopalians. They put the cuck into cuckservative long before the term was coined.

    FTR, I have a blood ancestor who was on San Juan Hill with Teddy R., who was also a close business associate of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. and the central character in one of American History's most notorious scandals (before the modern era made such quaint, little peccadilloes fade into insignificance by comparison.)

    They built so much, and then totally FUBAR'd it.

    We agree, however, that most everything in history obeys the IRON LAWS recorded by George Orwell in his book-within-a-book, The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism. There's always a High, a Middle and a Low. Things tend to be stable most of the time, but if the High loses touch, elements of the Middle enlist the Low to displace the High. If successful, the formerly Middle (new High) immediately kicks the Low right back to the gutter where they found them, and the cycle begins anew. The historians then assign a plausible mythology to the entire process, and people learn the fables as a catechism. The American Revolution succeeded in part because Whigs in Parliament were favorable toward it.
    , @dc.sunsets

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.
     
    It doesn't matter what is the Fed Funds Rate.

    What matters is what investors will pay for hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of existing IOU's (debt.) The nominal price of debt sets debts' interest rates, and investors have "banked" an ocean of debt at nearly face value (AKA near-zero interest rates.) Only a social mood mania of unprecedented scale could result in this. If getting the boobs to buy IOU's by the super-tanker load was something some Big Con Artists could accomplish, they'd have done it thousands of years ago.

    Everything in history has to wait until the Time Is Right. Armies cannot force an idea whose time has not yet arrived. And any idea, no matter how bat-guano crazy, whose time has arrived cannot be resisted by armies.

    We live in such an Age.

    This, too, must pass. And when it does, and people (as I said, AS A FLOCK OF BIRDS or SCHOOL OF FISH) suddenly change direction, the price of debt will fall, interest rates will rise, and by definition, a mania for debt that filled an ocean of it will invert into the biggest Poseidon Adventure in any asset market on Earth.

    People will go a century or more before they'll trust the issuers of IOU's, so badly with this turn out. Every deeply indebted entity on Earth will crumble, from multinational corporations to governments to banks to individuals.

    People won't care about FICO scores. No one WITH assets will lend them, and the massive fraction of the world' economy addicted to (dependent on) debt will grind to a halt. Attorneys will have decades of work adjudicating who exactly owns what, given that most real assets are re-hypothecated (promised as collateral) a dozen times each, with each entity in the food chain thinking it owns the stuff. The MERS system for real estate ownership will completely cloud title of tens of millions of homes, for example.

    But that won't occur until after debt value has already fallen. And right now, the 30-year T-bond yields 2.22% and price remains in an uptrend, as astonishing as that appears to me.

    Don't expect the Fed to raise its rates until the 3-month T-bill yield is in an uptrend (it's not.)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIRX/chart?p=^IRX&.tsrc=fin-srch
    , @Robert Dolan
    There is no wasp ruling elite. There is only a Bolshevik jewish ruling elite.

    wasps in government are shabbos goy and they do the bidding of their jewish donors......which means open borders and the race replacement of white people. "Boomers" had nothing to do with it. The boomer blame is simply a deflection away from the jewish nation wreckers.

    I don't believe any of the polls. They were 100% wrong the last time.

    However....it is true that the GOP is toast and that white people are screwed. There are no political solutions to this problem.
  79. @Charles Pewitt

    Why did the American Revolution occur? Hint: everything you read in the history books was a lie, a complete and utter fabrication. People were well-off. But the colonists revolted anyway.

     

    The sectionalized colonial ruling classes -- especially in Virginia and Massachusetts -- thought they could get a better and bigger deal by exiting the British Empire than by staying in.

    Planter class tired of factors in England ripping them off and Massachusetts book people types -- lawyers, merchants, traders...etc. -- thinking they'd be better off without any British Empire bean counter middle men around clam raking loot they thought should rightfully be theirs.

    Sam Francis gets more and more right the older I get.

    It's always about the current ruling class and the potential ruling class.

    White Core America is the new ruling class in waiting that will remove the evil and immoral JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire from power.

    Remember, the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire owns and controls the private consortium of banks called the Federal Reserve Bank.

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.

    It's all about the JEW/WASP ruling class and monetary policy and demography.

    You lost me with the distinction between “White Core” and WASP.

    The historic “core” of Post-Native-American America was (W)hite, (A)nglo-(S)axon and (P)rotestant. Love ’em or hate ’em, that was most of America before the 19th century waves of German, Italian and Irish immigration.

    My ancestors made this country, and then frankly pissed it away. Talk about screwing over your great(time “x”) grandkids. Blame it on the Episcopalians. They put the cuck into cuckservative long before the term was coined.

    FTR, I have a blood ancestor who was on San Juan Hill with Teddy R., who was also a close business associate of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. and the central character in one of American History’s most notorious scandals (before the modern era made such quaint, little peccadilloes fade into insignificance by comparison.)

    They built so much, and then totally FUBAR’d it.

    We agree, however, that most everything in history obeys the IRON LAWS recorded by George Orwell in his book-within-a-book, The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism. There’s always a High, a Middle and a Low. Things tend to be stable most of the time, but if the High loses touch, elements of the Middle enlist the Low to displace the High. If successful, the formerly Middle (new High) immediately kicks the Low right back to the gutter where they found them, and the cycle begins anew. The historians then assign a plausible mythology to the entire process, and people learn the fables as a catechism. The American Revolution succeeded in part because Whigs in Parliament were favorable toward it.

  80. @Lot
    GA and TX are mirages for the Dems. Their best path to winning is retaking MI/PA/WI.

    White-hating pundits ignore this because it requires getting icky WWC votes. But such voters have regularly voted for Dems, including in 2018. Getting a small number of Obama-Obama-Trump voters to swing back is far more realistic than getting a massive number of TX Hispanics who have never voted before to do so.

    Raising minority turnout doesn’t sound hard in theory. But if it were remotely possible, some Democrat in TX would have done it already, somewhere, even just one example of it.

    Abrams lost to Kemp by 55,000 votes out of about three million cast, 50.2% to 48.8% with the rest going to the Libertarian. That definitely does not suggest that Georgia is out of reach for the Democrats in 2020. That’s wishful thinking.

    I’ll guess that trump will win Georgia again, but repubs had better not be too confident there.

    Moreover, even in just two years between the Abrams election and the presidential election, the African population of Georgia presumably has continued to increase as always. (It’s sure easier to pump out the children when you’re not paying for them.). There are, presumably, also more foreign-born non-european people in Georgia than in 2018, and that demographic is reliably known to deliver dem supermajorities.

    Even slight dem increases in these two categories will require higher white turnout to let the republicans hang on to this State — especially if the Dem veep nominee is African and the Africans register a bunch of new voters (and pull out the stops with voter fraud more than usual).

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Moreover, even in just two years between the Abrams election and the presidential election, the African population of Georgia presumably has continued to increase as always. (It’s sure easier to pump out the children when you’re not paying for them.).
     
    What is the TFR for blacks in Georgia? It's dropping everywhere else. The state's black increase is more likely to be coming from places like California, which no longer offers them anything, and from the middle classes. They can vote soon after arrival, whereas those babies will have to wait 18 years, like Jimmy Carter did.

    How much of the Hispanic population in Georgia is even legal?
  81. @Charles Pewitt

    Why did the American Revolution occur? Hint: everything you read in the history books was a lie, a complete and utter fabrication. People were well-off. But the colonists revolted anyway.

     

    The sectionalized colonial ruling classes -- especially in Virginia and Massachusetts -- thought they could get a better and bigger deal by exiting the British Empire than by staying in.

    Planter class tired of factors in England ripping them off and Massachusetts book people types -- lawyers, merchants, traders...etc. -- thinking they'd be better off without any British Empire bean counter middle men around clam raking loot they thought should rightfully be theirs.

    Sam Francis gets more and more right the older I get.

    It's always about the current ruling class and the potential ruling class.

    White Core America is the new ruling class in waiting that will remove the evil and immoral JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire from power.

    Remember, the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire owns and controls the private consortium of banks called the Federal Reserve Bank.

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.

    It's all about the JEW/WASP ruling class and monetary policy and demography.

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.

    It doesn’t matter what is the Fed Funds Rate.

    What matters is what investors will pay for hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of existing IOU’s (debt.) The nominal price of debt sets debts’ interest rates, and investors have “banked” an ocean of debt at nearly face value (AKA near-zero interest rates.) Only a social mood mania of unprecedented scale could result in this. If getting the boobs to buy IOU’s by the super-tanker load was something some Big Con Artists could accomplish, they’d have done it thousands of years ago.

    Everything in history has to wait until the Time Is Right. Armies cannot force an idea whose time has not yet arrived. And any idea, no matter how bat-guano crazy, whose time has arrived cannot be resisted by armies.

    We live in such an Age.

    This, too, must pass. And when it does, and people (as I said, AS A FLOCK OF BIRDS or SCHOOL OF FISH) suddenly change direction, the price of debt will fall, interest rates will rise, and by definition, a mania for debt that filled an ocean of it will invert into the biggest Poseidon Adventure in any asset market on Earth.

    People will go a century or more before they’ll trust the issuers of IOU’s, so badly with this turn out. Every deeply indebted entity on Earth will crumble, from multinational corporations to governments to banks to individuals.

    People won’t care about FICO scores. No one WITH assets will lend them, and the massive fraction of the world’ economy addicted to (dependent on) debt will grind to a halt. Attorneys will have decades of work adjudicating who exactly owns what, given that most real assets are re-hypothecated (promised as collateral) a dozen times each, with each entity in the food chain thinking it owns the stuff. The MERS system for real estate ownership will completely cloud title of tens of millions of homes, for example.

    But that won’t occur until after debt value has already fallen. And right now, the 30-year T-bond yields 2.22% and price remains in an uptrend, as astonishing as that appears to me.

    Don’t expect the Fed to raise its rates until the 3-month T-bill yield is in an uptrend (it’s not.)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIRX/chart?p=^IRX&.tsrc=fin-srch

    • Replies: @Justvisiting

    People will go a century or more before they’ll trust the issuers of IOU’s, so badly with this turn out. Every deeply indebted entity on Earth will crumble, from multinational corporations to governments to banks to individuals.
     
    I agree this will happen at some point in our future history (no clue when), but I think you under-estimate what the impact will be when it happens. National (and Euro type) currencies (as you note) are also IOUs, which means that "legal tender" will not be accepted despite the threat of the long arm of the law. That is stone age stuff.

    You know those History Channel shows about some obscure ancient civilization that suddenly disappeared without a trace--that will be us a hundred years after "the event". (Feel free to find your favorite cave and start painting on it.... ;-) )

  82. @WorkingClass
    I googled retarded baby boomers but did not look beyond the first page of results. I found lots of references to retarded baby boomers but nothing about the actual prevalence of mental retardation among that cohort. I brought back this tidbit.

    The majority of baby boomers support their adult children

    According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39. There are several potential reasons for this, such as record-high student-debt levels and a difficult job market for recent college graduates.
     
    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/07/29/9-baby-boomer-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx

    Are there a significant number of Americans who hate their parents and grand parents?

    I was born in '44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION. I was a great baby. And I can tell you that the world was already fucked up when the Boomers got here. And it will still be fucked up when you are done with it.

    The so-called Greatest Generation was the cohort old enough to fight in WWII, which means it ended with those born after 1927. Age 18 when the war ended.

    You, my friend, are part of the Silent Generation which followed, and ended in 1945 when the WWII vets returned home to make babies, which became the Baby Boomers (1946-64).

    I find it odd that, after nothing but boomers since Clinton’s election in 1992, the democrats are so bereft of new ideas that they are seriously considering 3 very old pre-boomers (Biden, Bernie, and Bloomberg) to be their nominee.

    This party is starting to look like the gerontocracy which helped to hasten the fall of the USSR, only older.

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    You are correct. My bad. I won't let it happen again.

    But I will continue to push back, occasionally, against boomer haters. Theirs is a stupid and destructive meme.
  83. @SunBakedSuburb
    "I think Harris is a bad running mate."

    Agree. She's obviously vapid and hungry for power. Not a good combination. But if Joe stumbles into the White House he'll be bringing either Kamala or Stacey Abrams with him. Abrams is smart and desires retribution. Kamala will be a medium for Hillary.

    White Dems should stop and think, a vote for Biden is a vote for President Abrams, if that’s his running mate. Old Joe will not survive until 2024. Do you really think Abrams is smart?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Yes, she's tactically brilliant. She understands electoral demographics better than anyone in the entire Republican party, I think.
    , @SunBakedSuburb
    Agree with AE's comment. Plus, she's aware of the zeitgeist amongst the elites in media, government, and culture that is crying out for the leadership of the Holy Black Woman. Because only She can redeem us.
  84. “the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw.”

    what happens in a draw?

    • Replies: @A123

    “the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw.”

    what happens in a draw?
     
    Theoretically, it goes to:

    -- The Electors. One "faithless" Elector flipping sides would generate a winner. (1)
    -- If the Electors stay split. It would go to the House.

    I say theoretically, because there would be legal challenges and recounts in multiple states. The final decision would thus, almost certainly, wind up in the hands of the Supreme Court intervening in a close state.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.usa.gov/election

    How Does the Electoral College Process Work?

    After you cast your ballot for president, your vote goes to a statewide tally. In 48 states and Washington, D.C., the winner gets all the electoral votes for that state. Maine and Nebraska assign their electors using a proportional system.

    A candidate needs the vote of at least 270 electors—more than half of all electors—to win the presidential election.

    In most cases, a projected winner is announced on election night in November after you vote. But the actual Electoral College vote takes place in mid-December when the electors meet in their states.

    The Constitution doesn’t require electors to follow their state's popular vote, but it’s rare for one not to.
     
    , @RadicalCenter
    As far as the U.S. Constitution is concerned, an elector is free to vote for someone other than the person for whom the majority or plurality of their State's voters chose.

    They're called "faithless electors."

    More than thirty States have enacted statutes purporting to require electors to vote for the person for whom they had pledged to vote, but I don't think that the federal appellate courts have ever decided whether the States may constitutionally impose this requirement.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit just addressed some of this in the case of Baca v. Colorado Department of State (August 20, 2019). The losing party asked the Supreme Court to take the case, but the Supreme Court has not decided whether to "grant certiorari" yet.

    But let's assume that even after any faithless electors defect and faithless-elector state laws are applied, there is still a tie in electoral votes. The tie can be 269-269 or it can be some lower total due to a third-party candidate getting some electoral votes.

    The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State's entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State's population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible.

    The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible.

  85. @prime noticer
    "the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw."

    what happens in a draw?

    “the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw.”

    what happens in a draw?

    Theoretically, it goes to:

    — The Electors. One “faithless” Elector flipping sides would generate a winner. (1)
    — If the Electors stay split. It would go to the House.

    I say theoretically, because there would be legal challenges and recounts in multiple states. The final decision would thus, almost certainly, wind up in the hands of the Supreme Court intervening in a close state.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.usa.gov/election

    How Does the Electoral College Process Work?

    After you cast your ballot for president, your vote goes to a statewide tally. In 48 states and Washington, D.C., the winner gets all the electoral votes for that state. Maine and Nebraska assign their electors using a proportional system.

    A candidate needs the vote of at least 270 electors—more than half of all electors—to win the presidential election.

    In most cases, a projected winner is announced on election night in November after you vote. But the actual Electoral College vote takes place in mid-December when the electors meet in their states.

    The Constitution doesn’t require electors to follow their state’s popular vote, but it’s rare for one not to.

  86. @dc.sunsets

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.
     
    It doesn't matter what is the Fed Funds Rate.

    What matters is what investors will pay for hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of existing IOU's (debt.) The nominal price of debt sets debts' interest rates, and investors have "banked" an ocean of debt at nearly face value (AKA near-zero interest rates.) Only a social mood mania of unprecedented scale could result in this. If getting the boobs to buy IOU's by the super-tanker load was something some Big Con Artists could accomplish, they'd have done it thousands of years ago.

    Everything in history has to wait until the Time Is Right. Armies cannot force an idea whose time has not yet arrived. And any idea, no matter how bat-guano crazy, whose time has arrived cannot be resisted by armies.

    We live in such an Age.

    This, too, must pass. And when it does, and people (as I said, AS A FLOCK OF BIRDS or SCHOOL OF FISH) suddenly change direction, the price of debt will fall, interest rates will rise, and by definition, a mania for debt that filled an ocean of it will invert into the biggest Poseidon Adventure in any asset market on Earth.

    People will go a century or more before they'll trust the issuers of IOU's, so badly with this turn out. Every deeply indebted entity on Earth will crumble, from multinational corporations to governments to banks to individuals.

    People won't care about FICO scores. No one WITH assets will lend them, and the massive fraction of the world' economy addicted to (dependent on) debt will grind to a halt. Attorneys will have decades of work adjudicating who exactly owns what, given that most real assets are re-hypothecated (promised as collateral) a dozen times each, with each entity in the food chain thinking it owns the stuff. The MERS system for real estate ownership will completely cloud title of tens of millions of homes, for example.

    But that won't occur until after debt value has already fallen. And right now, the 30-year T-bond yields 2.22% and price remains in an uptrend, as astonishing as that appears to me.

    Don't expect the Fed to raise its rates until the 3-month T-bill yield is in an uptrend (it's not.)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIRX/chart?p=^IRX&.tsrc=fin-srch

    People will go a century or more before they’ll trust the issuers of IOU’s, so badly with this turn out. Every deeply indebted entity on Earth will crumble, from multinational corporations to governments to banks to individuals.

    I agree this will happen at some point in our future history (no clue when), but I think you under-estimate what the impact will be when it happens. National (and Euro type) currencies (as you note) are also IOUs, which means that “legal tender” will not be accepted despite the threat of the long arm of the law. That is stone age stuff.

    You know those History Channel shows about some obscure ancient civilization that suddenly disappeared without a trace–that will be us a hundred years after “the event”. (Feel free to find your favorite cave and start painting on it…. 😉 )

    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    I don't disagree with you.

    I can only worry about known-knowns and known-unknowns. Worrying about (much less the absurd notion of prepping for) unknown-unknowns is silly, a pure waste of time.

    I think that the love affair with debt (begun in earnest in the 1960's when the money Americans used was floated fully fiat due to removing silver, the last monetary commodity peg, from coins) will end in a conflagration that burns down the inverted pyramid of IOU's from the broad, flat top.

    Debt revulsion will start with IOU's issued by the weakest entities: Corporate Junk (and almost all corporate debt is "high yield" already.) Next will be debt issued by local and state governments, along with debt issued by almost all consumers (AKA consumer borrowing will crater.)

    Whether bank demand deposits fail (bank runs are a thing of the past; now we have "bail ins" which are simply accounting recognition that the bank cannot return what it loaned out to defaulting borrowers) before rising rates choke off nation-state level borrowing is an interesting question. We know that if there's a systemic crisis, the FDIC cannot bail out more than a tiny fraction of "insured" deposits. It's like the Bank of Pompeii promising to bail out citizens affected by the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius.

    The last debt entity to go, possibly, will be banknote cash. Relatively little money is banknote cash, but it doesn't depend on a counter-party for its delivery (if you already have it in your hand.) Before people give up the familiar, the familiar will be tried, retried and tried again. If I'm correct, when the credit economy freezes due to lack of credit-money, those in Authority will attempt to reflate the economy using banknotes, AKA literally PRINT THEIR WAY OUT OF THE HOLE. When (if) that happens, the final phase in the complete collapse of the monetary (and political) system will begin.

    The coming crisis (and it most certainly cannot be avoided, even if the timing is utterly unknown) will be a PROCESS. The road will not end, even when that process is complete. Life will go on (for those who are nimble and fortunate) and new systems will emerge even as the old one burns.

    And the criminals, scoundrels and demons among us will profit (mostly by getting cronies in political power to make them "whole" after crises occur.) Not much we can do about that, however.

    YMMV
  87. @prime noticer
    "the GOP will have to take both Minnesota and Maine to fight to a 269-269 draw."

    what happens in a draw?

    As far as the U.S. Constitution is concerned, an elector is free to vote for someone other than the person for whom the majority or plurality of their State’s voters chose.

    They’re called “faithless electors.”

    More than thirty States have enacted statutes purporting to require electors to vote for the person for whom they had pledged to vote, but I don’t think that the federal appellate courts have ever decided whether the States may constitutionally impose this requirement.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit just addressed some of this in the case of Baca v. Colorado Department of State (August 20, 2019). The losing party asked the Supreme Court to take the case, but the Supreme Court has not decided whether to “grant certiorari” yet.

    But let’s assume that even after any faithless electors defect and faithless-elector state laws are applied, there is still a tie in electoral votes. The tie can be 269-269 or it can be some lower total due to a third-party candidate getting some electoral votes.

    The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State’s entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State’s population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible.

    The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    "The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State’s entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State’s population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible. The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible."

    then in 2021 we would end up with a democrat president and republican vice president, which is how US elections went for a 100 years, with the previous system: guy who gets the most votes is president, guy who gets the second most votes is vice president. but here, for different mechanical reasons.

    this won't happen, as i have Trump on course to be blown out by ANY of the democrats, a prediction i made on here numerous times. however, that would be a really weird alternate reality, with Trump being elected vice president in november 2020.

  88. @RadicalCenter
    As far as the U.S. Constitution is concerned, an elector is free to vote for someone other than the person for whom the majority or plurality of their State's voters chose.

    They're called "faithless electors."

    More than thirty States have enacted statutes purporting to require electors to vote for the person for whom they had pledged to vote, but I don't think that the federal appellate courts have ever decided whether the States may constitutionally impose this requirement.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit just addressed some of this in the case of Baca v. Colorado Department of State (August 20, 2019). The losing party asked the Supreme Court to take the case, but the Supreme Court has not decided whether to "grant certiorari" yet.

    But let's assume that even after any faithless electors defect and faithless-elector state laws are applied, there is still a tie in electoral votes. The tie can be 269-269 or it can be some lower total due to a third-party candidate getting some electoral votes.

    The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State's entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State's population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible.

    The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible.

    “The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State’s entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State’s population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible. The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible.”

    then in 2021 we would end up with a democrat president and republican vice president, which is how US elections went for a 100 years, with the previous system: guy who gets the most votes is president, guy who gets the second most votes is vice president. but here, for different mechanical reasons.

    this won’t happen, as i have Trump on course to be blown out by ANY of the democrats, a prediction i made on here numerous times. however, that would be a really weird alternate reality, with Trump being elected vice president in november 2020.

    • Replies: @A123
    Here is the U.S. Constitution language:

    the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
     
    To me it looks like that if electors fail it goes to one vote per state. The "Majority of States" (26+) win. And there are 26+ Red (Trump) state House delegations in any tie scenario.

    Again, the Supreme Court would likely be dragged into the mix as the Democrat party hates the Constutition.

    The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President;
     
    The Senate VP vote is among VP candidates. So assuming the Trump-Pence ticket holds the Senate would most likely select Pence.
    _____

    Of course this is all hypothetical. The DNC is going to pick a useless, easy, slow moving target that Trump is going to shred and humiliate for the entire campaign season. A 50 state blow out is not impossible. The Democrat choices are really that bad.

    PEACE 😇
    , @RadicalCenter
    Well, as for the House choosing a Democrat for president, it seems that way at first blush, but I think they’d choose a Republican (presumably Pence or Trump).

    The Dems utterly dominate the California, New York, and New Jersey congressional delegations, as well as Illinois. Most of the other States (Texas, Florida, Ohio, and most of the small-population states) have a majority-republican House delegation.

    CA 45 D and 7 R
    NY 22 D and 5 R
    IL 13 D and 5 R
    NJ 11 D and 1 R

    Probably we will not encounter this scenario in 2020, or ever in our lifetimes. But this is how the party numbers stack up right now.

  89. Trump’s actions today show in finality he is far too boomer to be effective against the leftists hordes. Trump will be the last republican president, and will exit office in January 2021. the country will then head straight downhill. but, it’s a long way down. it will struggle on for decades as some kind of frankenstein empire. due to modern technology such as airplanes though, America won’t last as long as Rome did. it won’t take hundreds of years to decline to total crap irrelevance. that will happen before 2100, as a billion third worlders flood in.

  90. @216
    1 mln naturalized per annum

    Silent Gen dropping like flies

    We need Self Determination

    We need Self Determination

    So what’s your plan to achieve that?

    • Replies: @216
    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.
  91. The Fed is making policy to keep GDP at +2% growth. In a reelection year, that predicts Trump 2-party vote near 51%. “Fundamentals” models are bare-bones w/o candidate/campaign info, but accurate even as campaigns marginally shift who’s in each vote bloc.

    Maybe this year will be different. But that’s what folks said about 2016 with Trump, and the fundamentals were right on target. Bear in mind that Republican Electoral College biases mean that Democrats need to win substantially more than 50% of the 2-party vote to win the EC.

    Trump currently has a personal rating of 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable among registered voters. The president’s personal rating has grown slightly more positive since news of the Ukraine call first broke, but the shifts so far are not statistically significant. He had a 44%-54% rating in November and a 43%-56% rating in late September. Moreover, there continues to be a wide net negative gap among those who have a strong opinion of the president – 33% very favorable versus 47% very unfavorable.

    The leading Democratic contenders to take on the president in 2020 have also seen little change in their own personal ratings over the past month. Biden has a rating of 43% favorable and 50% unfavorable among all registered voters (identical to his 43%-50% rating in November), Sanders has a rating of 41% favorable and 54% unfavorable (identical to his 41%-54% rating in November), and Warren has a rating of 40% favorable and 50% unfavorable (slightly more negative than her 42%-44% rating in November). South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets a 34% favorable and 35% unfavorable rating, which is a slight improvement from his 27%-34% rating in November.

  92. @MBlanc46
    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party. They would vote for it in even lesser numbers if it were explicitly the white peoples’s party. It’s white people, simpliciter, that they hate.

    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party.

    Do you think maybe there’s a tiny chance that the problem facing the Republicans is that they are explicitly the Rich People’s Party?

    And that Trump’s problem is that he has to a large extent confirmed this impression?

    Maybe race isn’t quite as big an issue as you think. Why on earth would any non-rich person want to vote Republican?

    • Replies: @216
    The highest income counties in the US are mostly Dem.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    The funny thing is, while this is the perception--and Republicans do nothing to dispel it--Democrats have massively outraised Republicans since 2008. For more than a decade, the Democrats have been the big money party by something approaching a $2-to-$1 advantage, yet still the GOP is too incompetent to shake the "party of the rich" label.
    , @MBlanc46
    Of course it is. It will either change or die. Or perhaps both.
  93. @prime noticer
    "The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State’s entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State’s population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible. The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible."

    then in 2021 we would end up with a democrat president and republican vice president, which is how US elections went for a 100 years, with the previous system: guy who gets the most votes is president, guy who gets the second most votes is vice president. but here, for different mechanical reasons.

    this won't happen, as i have Trump on course to be blown out by ANY of the democrats, a prediction i made on here numerous times. however, that would be a really weird alternate reality, with Trump being elected vice president in november 2020.

    Here is the U.S. Constitution language:

    the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.

    To me it looks like that if electors fail it goes to one vote per state. The “Majority of States” (26+) win. And there are 26+ Red (Trump) state House delegations in any tie scenario.

    Again, the Supreme Court would likely be dragged into the mix as the Democrat party hates the Constutition.

    The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President;

    The Senate VP vote is among VP candidates. So assuming the Trump-Pence ticket holds the Senate would most likely select Pence.
    _____

    Of course this is all hypothetical. The DNC is going to pick a useless, easy, slow moving target that Trump is going to shred and humiliate for the entire campaign season. A 50 state blow out is not impossible. The Democrat choices are really that bad.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    I’d guess you’re right that the republican cucks in the Senate would pick pence instead of trump.

    But given the consistent margins of victory for Dems, and demographic changes further in their direction, the notion that trump or pence could win California, New York, Maryland, Hawaii, Vermont, or DC is obviously absurd, no matter who the Dems nominate. That’s 55 + 29 + 10 + 4 + 3 + 3 = 104 electoral votes in the bag even if the dem is the most disagreeable candidate and runs the worst campaign ever.
  94. @dfordoom

    We need Self Determination
     
    So what's your plan to achieve that?

    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    Perhaps some diabolical future diplomatic and military insiders would persuade and then allow China to occupy Hawaii, CA, WA, OR.

    That would have a "Pearl Harbor" effect as well as eliminating a bunch of Democratic electoral college votes.

    ;-)
    , @Corvinus
    "Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition."

    That's insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won't be any "Red Dawn" scenarios.
    , @dfordoom

    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.
     
    That's probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely. And it would have to be a real defeat. The system survived the defeat in Vietnam. It would have to be defeat in a nuclear war, or unequivocal defeat in a really large-scale conventional war and that's not possible because if the US was losing that badly they'd use nukes.

    An asteroid strike might do the trick.
  95. NYT

    Now, here’s Trump approval in PA/WI/MI, by vote history:
    Voted 2016 and 2018: 47-51
    Voted 2016 not 2018: 55-43
    Didn’t vote 2016, voted 2018: 38-61
    Neither: 52-45

    Here’s Trump approval in AZ/FL by vote history:
    Voted 2016 and 2018: 50-49
    Voted 2016 not 2018: 44-54
    Didn’t vote 2016, voted 2018: 44-53
    Neither: 40-53

    Trump’s chances in 2020

    For Clinton to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin she’d need 70% of third party vote or all of Stein and 60% of Johnson

    Voter Enthusiasm:

    Voter enthusiasm in April is already higher than 2008 on the day of election. With 75% of registered voters saying they’ll vote in 2020, a 20% increase from 2016

    White – 76% (2016 = 65%)

    White College Grad – 79%( 2016 = 79%)

    White Non-College – 77% (2016 = 57%)

    Non-white – 69% (2016 = 52%)

    (2016 was 57% Black, 46% Latino, and 49% Asian)

    Voter Enthusiasm Ranges – Trump has a 3-4% advantage in intention to vote

    CNN poll: Who is ‘extremely enthusiastic about president vote’? Republicans 57 Democrats 46.

    Mind you total enthusiasm eclipsed 2008 levels in polls already

    Men – 72%-75%

    Women – 67-73%

    _____

    White College Grad – 77%-89%

    White Non-College – 69-77%

    White Millennials – 73%

    White Married Women – 88%

    White Married Men – 83%

    White Divorced Men – 80%

    White Single Men – 73%

    White Divorced Women – 86%

    White Single Women – 82%
    _____

    Non-White – 65%-69

    Non-White No College – 60%

    Non-White College graduates – 85%

    Black Millennials – 57%

    Hispanic Millennials – 90%

    2019 Voter Survey: Trump’s popularity among Romney voters has ticked up to 90-95% (worth mentioning according to ANES Trump got 66% of Romney voters, According to CCES Trump got 70% of Romney Voters)

    Trump’s popularity among Obama-Trump has fallen from 80% to 60% (worth mentioning according to ANES Trump got 13% of Obama voters, Accordingly to CCES Trump got 11% of Obama voters)

    Trump’s popularity among Romney-Other has ticked up from 25% to 40% (According to ANES this was 29% of Romney voters, and according to CCES this was 31%)

    Trump’s popularity among Obama-Other has ticked up from 10% to 20% (According to ANES this was 35% of Obama voters, and according to CCES this was 28%)

    Trump’s popularity among Romney-Clinton has gone down from 10% to 5% (According to ANES and CCES this was 4% of Romney Voters)

    Trump’s popularity among Obama-Clinton voters is near zero (According to ANES this was 77% of Obama voters, according to CCES this was 79%)

    Trump’s popularity among non-college whites by NYT (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin)

    Dem candidates: 37% (35% in 2016)

    Trump: 55% (53% in 2016)

    Don’t know: 9% (12% in 2016)

    Trump’s margin loss among black voters in the 6 NYT states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) has went from +79 to +68-74

    Among non-voters in the 6 states polled by NYT (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin)

    Dem: 41-46%

    Trump: 42%

    Don’t know: 12-17%

    According to CCES among non-voters in 2016

    Arizona – Clinton (42%), Trump (39%)
    Florida – Clinton (47%), Trump (36%)
    Georgia – Clinton (43%), Trump (38%)
    Michigan – Trump (37%), Clinton (36%)
    North Carolina – Trump (43%), Clinton (41%)
    Pennsylvania – Trump (41%), Clinton (37%)
    Texas – Clinton (41%), Trump (36%)
    Wisconsin – Clinton (39%), Trump (37%)

    White Evangelicals: Pew Research has White Evangelicals support at 78% to 17% Disapprove. Was 77% to 18% in 2016, as well as turnout as % of electorate has remained at 26% since 204

    White Catholics: Trump has only 40% disapproval, but Obama had 62% according to CCES. Trump got 57% of white Catholics in 2016, now 60% plan on voting for him (CCES/Data for Progress)

    Non-White Catholic support has Jumped from 26% to 33% according to Data for Progress (2018)

    State by state

    Arizona: While Non-College whites where 46% of the electorate in 2018, 20% of all Latinos who voted in Arizona and Nevada in 2018 did not vote in 2016

    Florida: According to Latino Decisions Trump got 31% of Latinos in Florida, Dems 67% now according to same polling its 37% for Trump, 57% against

    The president’s approval rating in Miami-Dade may even be better than his standing there in 2016, based on three Times/Siena surveys of two districts there, Florida’s 26th and 27th. These polls were also highly accurate, coming within a point of the election results. On average, the president’s approval rating stood at 45.7 percent among the likely electorate in the two districts — well above his 40.8 percent share of the major-party vote there in the 2016 presidential election.

    Michigan: The best pollsters in the state (Glengariff and EPIC have Trump’s favorability rising 35% to 40-45% since election)

    Ohio: Evidence trumps popularity has gone down in Ohio according to 2018 CCES to only a 1% advantage

    Texas: Democrats will outregister Republicans in 2020

    Trump got 15% of Latinos in Texas according to Latino Decisions, he is up to 21% in new Latino Decisions and 26% in Telemundo poll

    Wisconsin:

    Among whites Trump’s approval (MULawPoll) has gone up with all groups since election (College Women: 25-35%, Non-College Women: 40-45%, College Men: 45-45%, Non-College Men: 55-60%)

    Favorability among whites has changed as well (College Women: 25-35%, Non-College Women: 35-45%, College Men: 35-45%, Non-College Men: 45-60%)

    Trump’s Favorability by Party ID is up among Republicans, Republican Leaners, and among Independents but down among Democrat leaners and Democrats

    Trump’s maintain his same 2016 popularity in Milwaukee

    Two-thirds of Wisconsin’s black population resides in the city of Milwaukee and recent polling has him up there. Trump ultimately received few votes from blacks in the state. But the shape of that vote was hugely significant. From 2012 to 2016, the black vote margin in Wisconsin shifted a little more than 6 points from Democrat to Republican. A vote analysis by the liberal Center for American Progress found that black turnout fell 19 points from 2012 to 2016. Clinton, the report stated, “would have emerged victorious – though just barely – if she had retained Obama’s black support.”

    If white enthusiasm goes up, that annihilates any chances. Which we have evidence Trump’s favorability is up in Wisconsin and Michigan.

    This is of course accounting for the fact that Wisconsin governor race was near tied in a D+8 electorate, Dems underperformed in the house, and again in 2018 that was because late deciders

  96. @dfordoom

    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party.
     
    Do you think maybe there's a tiny chance that the problem facing the Republicans is that they are explicitly the Rich People's Party?

    And that Trump's problem is that he has to a large extent confirmed this impression?

    Maybe race isn't quite as big an issue as you think. Why on earth would any non-rich person want to vote Republican?

    The highest income counties in the US are mostly Dem.

  97. @Corvinus
    "Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?"

    Romney, last time I checked, is content with being a Senator and not running for the presidency.

    "Stop drunk posting"

    I'm not the one quaffing down Trumpism like others here on this fine blog. Trump is not a GOP, not a Republican. He is marketing his own brand. He saw an opening, took advantage of it, and won against a brutally weak candidate in Shitlery. Praytell, what was his political ideology before running for the presidency? Was he consistently touting "conservative values" or the "Alt Right agenda"? Was he openly supporting the Republican legislative agenda while a private citizen? Has he become distant or more cozy with the Jewish lobby since becoming chief executive?

    Many questions for you to consider. Here. have a shot of Jameson on me...

    https://drizly.com/liquor/whiskey/irish-whiskey/jameson-irish-whiskey/p5138

    Trump is not a Republican.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Donald_Trump

    On November 9, 2016, Republicans Donald Trump of New York and Governor Mike Pence of Indiana won the 2016 election

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Trump ran as a Republican. That doesn't mean he is one. Trump registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987. Since that time, he has changed his party affiliation FIVE times. In 1999, Trump changed his party affiliation to the Independence Party of New York. In August 2001, Trump changed his party affiliation to Democratic. He later switched back.

    In a 2004 interview, Trump told CNN's Wolf Blitzer: "In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat," explaining: "It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans. Now, it shouldn't be that way. But if you go back, I mean it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats...But certainly we had some very good economies under Democrats, as well as Republicans. But we've had some pretty bad disaster under the Republicans".
  98. @WHAT
    I don`t know about Biden, on the ground he seems to have lost even the retarded boomers.

    On the other hand, do dems really want to beat Trump this cycle? Isn`t it better strategically to hand him the coming crash as a rope to hang himself with, and "his" gay bottoms party with him?

    The No Malarkey tour bus is a sop to them. Biden isn’t trying to be everything to everyone. He’s appealing to older white moderates who want something familiar while maintaining his strong black support.

    • Replies: @Prester John
    Ramblin' Amblin' Stumblin' Bumblin' Joe, had the DNC promoted his candidacy in 2016, would have beaten Trump then--and for the reasons you cite. Instead, they played the identity card. turning the Democrat Party into a predominantly homosexual, female, black/Hispanic party and nominated a woman who thought she was "entitled." Bad move as it turns out. Like their president, Obama, they misread the electorate.
  99. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality

    Even taking your general sentiments into account, is “benign” really the word you intended to use there? Maybe “overblown” or “exaggerated”, but benign? It sounds psychopathic.

    • Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter
    Can you make a plausible case for "overblown" or "exaggerated"?
  100. @Blinky Bill

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
     
    Yielding to Yang 😂

    That seems plausible to me. Yang’s support doesn’t overlap much with the rest of the Democrat field so he could legitimately pull some moderates to vote Democrat. He brings a lot of energy, he’s likable, youngish, and wrt diversity he’s only an Asian male, but a pair still beats high card and the other three guys in P/VP contention are old white men. Additionally, the prospect of a Yang president probably doesn’t scare anyone (Silicon Valley possibly excepted) much.

    • Agree: gman, Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @gman
    I totally understand why the establishment hates Gabbard and Sanders.

    TBH, the establishment (e.g. MSNBC) is irrational in their dislike of Yang. My guess is they don't like his supporters.

    Yang is simultaneously both an outsider and establishment friendly (at the very least he is not anti-establishment). Yang also goes out of his way to be nice to all the candidates.

    At the first debate, Yang said Russia was the greatest geo political threat. At the third debate, Yang said "I would return the level of legal immigration to the point it was under the Obama-Biden administration"

    IIRC (I can't find the video), Yang was asked which of the other candidates he's gotten to know and he said he was really friendly with Joe Biden

    Also
    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/22/andrew-yang-teases-running-in-2020-with-joe-biden-/
    , @Blinky Bill
    Looks electable to me.

    https://i.redd.it/fj2g7gi370o31.png

    Yang Gang 2020 !!!

    This next debate will be pivotal to his campaign. Make or break, he needs to push for more speaking time regardless of how the moderators behave towards him.
  101. @A123

    Though Biden and Sanders are familiar to low-information voters, they’ve not been fully scrutinized, so both are likely to come down upon getting the nomination if either does.
     
    This is the key. An Actual candidate versus a Theoretical one almost always gives many points to the emphemeral. Mutually exclusive beliefs can be contained within a theory candidate. As soon as positions are nailed down, some of the support will go away. A contentious, brokered convention could spell doom for Democrats.

    Another thing that polls frequently miss at this point is turnout. Trump has delivered jobs to minority communities, thus giving him all time Republican high favorables. While this is unlikely to flip large numbers of votes, low minority turnout is a huge risk for Dems.

    PEACE 😇

    A brokered convention is a real possibility. Sanders’ support isn’t going anywhere but he’s not winning, either, so if some combination of two among Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg all plug along for awhile, the stage will be set.

    • Agree: gman
    • Replies: @A123
    Given how gaff prone Biden is, he could say something breathtaking and pull Cory "Spartacus" Booker back into the race.

    It is hard to predict one scenario for Biden error, but the odds favor him screwing up at some point. If he has a substantial number of locked in delegates before he goes "hoof in mouth" the options for a brokered convention become substantial.

    "Sanders-Booker 2020"

    Ouch....

    PEACE
    , @gman
    My gut is that either Sanders will win the nomination or it will be a contested convention.

    Here's how it could happen:
    1. Other candidates fight each other: Other candidates have no incentive to attack Sanders as his base is dedicated to him. Even Joe Biden says "at least Sanders is honest." Thus right now we have a Buttigieg vs. Warren fight.

    2. Billionaire backlash: As Bloomberg and billionaires try to stop Sanders, it could backfire on them. With Kamala's resignation, I was honestly surprised it wasn't all race and gender. (The top highlight on her Medium resignation note is "I am not a billionaire"). Cory Booker said the DNC rules were favoring "millionaires and billionaires" and that there were more "billionaires than black people" on the debate stage. Booker and Harris are neoliberal shills IMO. Booker even defended Romney against Bain attacks, so I was surprised to see him meeting Sanders halfway in rhetoric. Kamala may have decided to pull the plug rather than rebuild in part due to Bloomberg's California ad spending.

    3. Differing incentives for individual establishment players vs. the establishment overall (e.g. similar to Rubio and Kasich being unable to team up early to stop a Trump victory). What if Warren/Buttigieg/Bloomberg (all of which are well funded) all do okay but not great. Also the calendar is front-end loaded so long as campaigns are completely broke , they might as well stay in.

    4. Better than expected turnout for younger groups: The latest Quinnipiac poll has Sanders at 52% within the 18-34 age group. What if turnout impresses in this group. Sanders is also doing well with Hispanics (a group that historically is lower-turnout). Sanders also has the financial resources to help drive turnout.

    5 A weakened Biden may not be the windfall the other candidates think it is: Bernie has a pulse with black voters and some Biden voters may actually gravitate to Sanders. Anecdote: I was in an uber recently driven by a older black gentleman and he said he would vote for biden though noted he really liked sanders but was concerned given his heart attack.

    Of course the key difference is that rather than the winner-take-most system of the GOP, Democrats award delegates proportionally subject to a 15% minimum)

    What if California (today's poll is Biden 21, Sanders 20, Warren 17, Buttigieg 9, Yang 6, Bloomberg 5) turns into the following:
    Sanders 35, Biden 23, Warren 10, Buttigieg 10, Yang 10, Bloomberg 10, Other 2. Because of the 15% rule, Sanders could end up with a majority of delegates in the largest state. (Note: If some of the 10%ers get 15% in congressional districts, they could still get delegates
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/)


    One thing I am watching is the UK election today. If Corbyn does well, that could be a positive sign for Sanders.

    , @Oblivionrecurs
    Biden is at 96% Biden, 93% Warren, and 84% of all the rest say they would. We learned from 2016 analysis that most voters are truthful about this. Switch Biden and Sanders numbers if Sanders was nominee

    Sanders supporters voted 73% for Hillary, 10% Trump according to post election CCES data. Which is equivalent to what they said in pre-election polls.

    Trump has increased in GOP share. Rubio but not Trump voters went 34% Trump, 21% Clinton, 45% Other/didn't vote

    Cruz but not Trump went 43% Trump, 15% Clinton

    Trump or Rubio still only went 89% Trump

    Rubio or Cruz but not Trump was 24% Trump, 12% Clinton.

    among undecided voters on the generic ballot who know both biden/warren, her rating is a net-30 points worse than biden. among voters who support biden but not warren, she has a minus-20 whatever rating and a majority say she's too far to the left. you have to grapple with this

    among the voters who have a view of both warren and biden, warren runs a net-3.4 points behind

    They lean Democratic, but only by a bit. The president actually leads Elizabeth Warren, 42 percent to 41 percent, among active registered voters who did not vote in either 2016 or 2018. Joe Biden leads this group by three points, and Bernie Sanders leads by four.

    Those nonvoters who say that, if they voted, they would vote for any of the three leading Democratic candidates seem no more likely to support progressive causes or a progressive nominee than recent voters. Just 13 percent of nonvoters who would vote for the Democratic nominee call themselves “very liberal.” Nearly as many of these Democratic-leaning nonvoters, 8 percent, say they’re “very conservative.”

    The results suggest that higher turnout, though helpful to Democrats in their quest to defeat the president, would not necessarily assure them of victory in these states. And the president’s ability to stay close among nonvoters suggests he could remain competitive in a high-turnout election and expand his support beyond his 63 million voters in 2016.

    For Democrats, part of the problem is that the demographics of nonvoters no longer work so clearly in their favor. Nonvoters are less likely to have graduated from a four-year college, and the president excels among the less educated white voters who are overrepresented among nonvoters in the battleground states

    The president, for instance, has a 17 percent approval rating among self-identified Democrats who didn’t vote in either 2016 or 2018, compared with an 8 percent approval rating among Democrats who did vote in either of those years. And Mr. Trump has a 19 percent disapproval rating among self-identified Republicans who didn’t vote in either 2016 or 2018, and a 9 percent disapproval rating among those who did.

    Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump among nonvoting black registered voters by only 59 percent to 19 percent, but he is ahead, 89-5, among those who voted in both 2016 and 2018. The sample of black nonvoters is small, at just 72 respondents, but the difference is well outside the margin of error. Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders underperform among nonvoting black registered voters by a similar level.

    What about whites without a degree, the president’s base? Mr. Trump has a 25-point lead over Mr. Biden in this group if they have voted in one of the last two elections, 59 percent to 34 percent. Those who stayed home, however, back Mr. Trump by a smaller margin of 53 percent to 36 percent. The pattern holds after controlling for age.

    Over all, Mr. Biden led among nonvoting Latinos, 64 percent to 24 percent, compared with a 63-30 lead among those who had voted in either 2018 or 2016. The sample of nonvoting Hispanic voters is fairly small, but the finding is consistent with data previously analyzed by The Upshot.

    Nonvoters are the likeliest group of Democratic leaners to oppose an assault weapons ban or to support reducing legal immigration to the United States. They’re likeliest to agree that discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against minorities, even though the group is only 50 percent white. They’re also likeliest to agree that political correctness has gone too far.

    When it comes to the candidates, Mr. Sanders shows relative strength among nonvoters: He has a 41 percent “very favorable” rating in the group, compared with 33 percent for Mr. Biden and 30 percent for Ms. Warren. This is at least in part because of Mr. Sanders’s longtime appeal to young voters.

    Not only is Mr. Sanders’s favorability rating the best of these three candidates, but he is also the only Democrat whose favorability rating is stronger among nonvoting Democratic leaners than among those who have voted before. His outsider status and promise of fundamental change, without much focus on cultural issues, might offer at least one clue for how Democrats might appeal to these nonvoters, though it need not be the only one.
  102. @houston 1992
    hmm
    1972: Muskie would have been stronger than McGovern,
    in 1980 perhaps Teddy Kennedy would have been stronger than Carter,
    1984: Gary Hart > Fritz Mondale
    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
    2016: Sanders with his old immigration realism >> Hillary

    Republican nominees
    1960 Gov Rockefeller/ Cabot Lodge > Nixon
    1976: Reagan >> Ford
    1988, 1992 Dole> Bush 41
    2008 : Pierre Delecto >> John McCain
    2012: anyone but Pierre Delecto > Pierrre Delecto

    I had to refresh myself on Pierre Delecto, ha!

  103. @John Arthur
    Exactly, I feel like other non whites would support the GOP if they made themselves the party of White Civilization, which is why they are all here in the United States.
    Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers. Even if Republicans were pro-immigration, why would any working class nonwhite support them?

    Republicans need to make the explicit argument that a more White America will be better for nonwhites payroll than a less White America. Even Hispanics, Arabs, and Asians can tell that they will do better in a America with Seattle's demographics than Detroit's, and one that wont send their kids to die fighting some random Neocon fetish.

    The far more optical way to do this is to argue for an immigration moratorium. It has the same effect, and most whites are fine with and even prefer that effect so long as the effect is never made explicit.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
    Good points.
    However, I slighly disagree with this analysis.

    The biggest problem is that most immigrants are causally aware of the relationship between more White people in a location, and said regions prosperity. That's why all the immigrants either move to rich, White urban areas like Seattle, or small White rural towns, if they have the resources to move.

    Especially in local politics, like housing politics, immigrants vote to restrict housing as to keep the demographic makeup of the community. They understand that young fertile immigrants of a non-White nature moving into their community means demographic change, and that means quality of life change. Whether this is bad, or good or doesn't really shake things up is irrelevant, but the fact is that the immigrants are aware of the calculus.

    But, when it comes to national politics, no candidate ever talks about demographic change, so immigrants aren't really aware of Republican fears about immigrantion. They assume it is just good old racism, and not thinking the same logic that is used in their own neighborhoods.

    If Republicans made this demographic change fears explicit, you would alienate some of the suburban people who will flinch at such rhetoric, but you would also put that same calculus in the minds of non-White voters. If they vote nationally the same way they vote reactionary in local areas, then Republicans will get votes.

    Personally, I am not that worried about America's demographic change as others,(I am more worried about the White-Black ratio than Hispanics or Asians), but I do feel like many non-Whites(who are used to voting in their own interest), would find this unnerving. Anyways, aren't alot of the Proud Boys and far-Right people nowadays Hispanic and Arab and Asian? There was that Nick Fuentes guy and that Arab congressman candidate on Tucker, so perhaps this approach would work.

    Well, that's just my two cents.

  104. @Audacious Epigone
    A brokered convention is a real possibility. Sanders' support isn't going anywhere but he's not winning, either, so if some combination of two among Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg all plug along for awhile, the stage will be set.

    Given how gaff prone Biden is, he could say something breathtaking and pull Cory “Spartacus” Booker back into the race.

    It is hard to predict one scenario for Biden error, but the odds favor him screwing up at some point. If he has a substantial number of locked in delegates before he goes “hoof in mouth” the options for a brokered convention become substantial.

    “Sanders-Booker 2020”

    Ouch….

    PEACE

  105. @Lot
    “ 5. China decides that Trump has a shot of re-election, agrees to a trade deal, this provides a psychological boost in the Midwest”

    That’s not good for Trump at all.

    There’s no possible China deal that’s as good for the USA and rustbelt voters as no deal + more and heavier China tariffs.

    Trump’s dragged out the China trade talks forever. We’re now allegedly going to get phases of the deal, but even that’s indefinite. What’s probably best for Trump is the prospect of a deal–one that’s great great great for Americans, of course!–that won’t be able to finalized until after the election.

    • Replies: @Lot
    Despite disappointments on immigration and taxing Wall Street, China tariffs have exceeded my expectations.

    I keep expecting Trump to get played with a “deal” that China of course will never comply with in good faith.

    China’s government is hostile to ours in a million ways, and had a policy of stealing our industrial jobs and technology.

    As with the Muslim world, I advocate for disengagement at every level. Less trade, less immigration, less everything. The Japanese, Vietnamese, South Koreans and Filipinos actually like us and can fill any economic niche the Chinese do for us.
  106. @clintwestwood
    Fuck this is depressing. The daily slander and hate mongering against white men is now a fixture of popular culture and it will only get worse. More great white defendants, more self-righteous and black womxn rambling incoherently about critical theory and how society is insufficiently appreciative of their hair.
    Once the left takes full power, American free speech exceptionalism will fall by the wayside. Hate speech restrictions will emerge and anyone that departs from woke orthodoxy will be threatened with criminal liability.

    As a zoomer it is hard to feel optimistic about anything

    It’s the ones with their backs against the wall who will do what needs to be done to save us all. Don’t tap out–we need you!

  107. @216
    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.

    Perhaps some diabolical future diplomatic and military insiders would persuade and then allow China to occupy Hawaii, CA, WA, OR.

    That would have a “Pearl Harbor” effect as well as eliminating a bunch of Democratic electoral college votes.

    😉

  108. @Justvisiting
    There were two key pieces of analysis needed to understand the 2016 election.

    I have seen _no_ articles that explained both of them.

    I know of no political analyst that understands both of them.

    If you don't get them _both_ right you cannot predict 2020 correctly.

    (1) Black turnout. Blacks turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They did not turn out for Hillary in 2016. The Democrats have no candidate that will get 2008/2012 like black turnout numbers. That is one reason they have to be the underdog in 2020 (regardless of "poll numbers") in states like PA, WI, MI that doomed them in 2016.

    (2) You need to look at the counties that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016.
    There were a fair number of them. You need to understand where they were and what issues influenced them.
    Many of them were rust belt rural areas. The Democrats have no candidate that has anything to offer them but insults.

    I just don't see the Democrats learning _anything_ from 2016, so I have to predict this election will be a rerun of 2016.

    Trump is still Trump. The Democrats are still the Democrats.

    Sanders has been careful not to spit on Trump supporters, at least so far as I’m aware. He is unique among top-tier Democrats in this regard.

    • Replies: @Flip
    He's disavowed it, but his previous position against immigration was good, and he has been good on gun rights due to representing Vermont. I'd rather see him than Warren. I don't think he'd be able to get much done and would be relatively harmless.
  109. @dc.sunsets
    Thought experiment: A dem (any dem) wins in 2020 and Congress stays in the hands of the UniParty Majority. What will the Left do, emboldened by success?
    1. Ban guns. Bet on it, both state and federal bans (de facto or de jure) will come fast and furious.
    2. Impose today's LGBT butt-sex coprophagia on schools but doubled and re-doubled.
    3. Every possible opportunity grab SWG (straight white guy) by the hair and ram his face into dog excrement will be instituted.

    Do you all think this can keep going, like the Energizer Bunny? Is Boobus Americanus so devoid of testosterone now that gang-raping men and women via politics can never generate revolt?

    Perhaps it's time to re-read the 500 year old wisdom of Etienne de la Boetie.
    https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/boetie-the-discourse-of-voluntary-servitude

    What vice is it, or, rather, what degradation? To see an endless multitude of people not merely obeying, but driven to servility? Not ruled, but tyrannized over? These wretches have no wealth, no kin, nor wife nor children, not even life itself that they can call their own. They suffer plundering, wantonness, cruelty, not from an army, not from a barbarian horde, on account of whom they must shed their blood and sacrifice their lives, but from a single man; not from a Hercules nor from a Samson, but from a single little man. Too frequently this same little man is the most cowardly and effeminate in the nation, a stranger to the powder of battle and hesitant on the sands of the tournament; not only without energy to direct men by force, but with hardly enough virility to bed with a common woman! Shall we call subjection to such a leader cowardice? Shall we say that those who serve him are cowardly and faint-hearted? If two, if three, if four, do not defend themselves from the one, we might call that circumstance surprising but nevertheless conceivable. In such a case one might be justified in suspecting a lack of courage. But if a hundred, if a thousand endure the caprice of a single man, should we not rather say that they lack not the courage but the desire to rise against him, and that such an attitude indicates indifference rather than cowardice?
     
    Will Americans be forever indifferent to their rape by Blue Commissars, by the Nomenklatura of Sodom and Gomorrah?

    Count me skeptical.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way. People will be scared, considerably more so even than in 2007/8, and a Republican senate will kill everything that comes from the House. Warren/Sanders will be forced to act with executive orders and flounder spectacularly in the process.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way."

    I suspect you're grasping at straws.
    , @gman
    TBH, this is one of the reasons I would rather see Sanders over Warren.

    I think your scenario is accurate for Warren. If Warren wins, her base of relatively high earners will feel like they've done their jobs and not be motivated to fight more and Republicans will block everything. Warren will also have an establishment foreign policy (It will essentially be like Obama's first term)

    If Sanders wins, I think he will continue fighting aggressively. I could see him continuing to hold large rallies, calling out corporations/ceo's by name. I think for workers, this will be more effective. Finally Sanders has a better foreign policy.
    , @dc.sunsets
    At some point in this absurd tragedy (in which we live), tomorrow will not be contiguous with today.

    At some point, it will become inescapably apparent that the Rubicon was, in fact, already crossed.

    Do you, I, or anyone think history is over, and that the future is simply a continuous series of iPhone revisions? That what we read of history occurred on a different planet, its participants utterly alien to us today?

    The people who RUN this country are 100% zealots to a religion that considers non-zealots to be utterly loathsome. They presuppose their own goodness and believe it is their right, by all that's good and proper, to destroy those they loathe.

    This isn't about change. It isn't about reeducation. It sure as hell isn't about persuasion. It's about making those you loathe GROVEL at your feet as you kick them, demanding they beg you TO KICK THEM AGAIN!

    Angelo Codevilla's writings over the last few years are a window into reality no one else seems to grasp (not even he does.) This is literally a religious war, and those who believe they've already won deem it their right to jump up and down on their vanquished enemies.

    I used to think the democrat talking points were just campaign rhetoric. I no longer think that view is tenable. These people really do think they are Masters Of The Universe, and they really do think anyone not in lock-step with them is theirs to torture at will, indulging in the PURE JOY of doing so. Look at them! They are basically in the throes of ecstasy describing how they'll make everyone do what they demand.

    They'll "ban guns" not to decrease crime but to hurt those who like guns (and like self-reliance.) They'll demand kids get video instruction on how to do anal sex because it HURTS those who don't want their kids exposed to depravity. This isn't about making the world better, it's literally about destroying or debauching what their enemies love, whatever that may be.

    2020 is the year it all comes into focus. Wait and watch.

    [For the record, I don't think the near-literal demons who run this circus have the numbers of minions necessary to actually perform all these feats of Terrorism on the public. There aren't enough True Believer Cops to pull it off. But in attempting to do so, the little cohesion left in this country will evaporate, leaving only enmity and rage to animate people's actions.]
  110. @Anon
    Audacious where are you getting the Texas birthrate numbers from? Last I checked white births were slightly over 1 in 3 (hovering around ~35%), not 1 in 4. Still terrible and death for us in the long run, but not AS terrible.

    Also I'll hold off on the inevitable doom-pill myself. I remember thinking there was no way Trump would win to the point where I just went to sleep early on election night because I "knew" Hillary had it in the bag and was going to win by massive amounts, only to get a call in the middle of the night from a friend telling me to 'wake up and get online, you wont believe whats happening!'

    Just estimating from elementary school figures. But looking at CDC figures for 2018, you are exactly right, with just a hair under one-third being to n-H whites. I’ll change it in the body of the post. Thanks.

    • Replies: @Anon
    Yeah the problem with elementary school figures is that it ignores home schooling and private schools, which while vastly less populated by children are also more white by the double digits, percentage wise.

    I just keep telling myself that 'at least we aren't Storm City, Iowa' (82% white t0 31% white schools in a SINGLE DECADE, at least half the white population has just up and left).

    I'll still probably move up north before I start my family and try to outdo you (what are you up to now, 3?) in the TFR game. I hear Polk county is especially white this decade.
  111. @Audacious Epigone
    The far more optical way to do this is to argue for an immigration moratorium. It has the same effect, and most whites are fine with and even prefer that effect so long as the effect is never made explicit.

    Good points.
    However, I slighly disagree with this analysis.

    The biggest problem is that most immigrants are causally aware of the relationship between more White people in a location, and said regions prosperity. That’s why all the immigrants either move to rich, White urban areas like Seattle, or small White rural towns, if they have the resources to move.

    Especially in local politics, like housing politics, immigrants vote to restrict housing as to keep the demographic makeup of the community. They understand that young fertile immigrants of a non-White nature moving into their community means demographic change, and that means quality of life change. Whether this is bad, or good or doesn’t really shake things up is irrelevant, but the fact is that the immigrants are aware of the calculus.

    But, when it comes to national politics, no candidate ever talks about demographic change, so immigrants aren’t really aware of Republican fears about immigrantion. They assume it is just good old racism, and not thinking the same logic that is used in their own neighborhoods.

    If Republicans made this demographic change fears explicit, you would alienate some of the suburban people who will flinch at such rhetoric, but you would also put that same calculus in the minds of non-White voters. If they vote nationally the same way they vote reactionary in local areas, then Republicans will get votes.

    Personally, I am not that worried about America’s demographic change as others,(I am more worried about the White-Black ratio than Hispanics or Asians), but I do feel like many non-Whites(who are used to voting in their own interest), would find this unnerving. Anyways, aren’t alot of the Proud Boys and far-Right people nowadays Hispanic and Arab and Asian? There was that Nick Fuentes guy and that Arab congressman candidate on Tucker, so perhaps this approach would work.

    Well, that’s just my two cents.

  112. @Audacious Epigone
    Trump's dragged out the China trade talks forever. We're now allegedly going to get phases of the deal, but even that's indefinite. What's probably best for Trump is the prospect of a deal--one that's great great great for Americans, of course!--that won't be able to finalized until after the election.

    Despite disappointments on immigration and taxing Wall Street, China tariffs have exceeded my expectations.

    I keep expecting Trump to get played with a “deal” that China of course will never comply with in good faith.

    China’s government is hostile to ours in a million ways, and had a policy of stealing our industrial jobs and technology.

    As with the Muslim world, I advocate for disengagement at every level. Less trade, less immigration, less everything. The Japanese, Vietnamese, South Koreans and Filipinos actually like us and can fill any economic niche the Chinese do for us.

    • Replies: @Nicolás Palacios Navarro
    The South Koreans do not like us, especially those on the left. The Moon administration has enacted policies that, at best, are less than helpful to US interests.
  113. @Anon

    Trump is not a Republican.
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Donald_Trump

    On November 9, 2016, Republicans Donald Trump of New York and Governor Mike Pence of Indiana won the 2016 election
     

    Trump ran as a Republican. That doesn’t mean he is one. Trump registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987. Since that time, he has changed his party affiliation FIVE times. In 1999, Trump changed his party affiliation to the Independence Party of New York. In August 2001, Trump changed his party affiliation to Democratic. He later switched back.

    In a 2004 interview, Trump told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer: “In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat,” explaining: “It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans. Now, it shouldn’t be that way. But if you go back, I mean it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats…But certainly we had some very good economies under Democrats, as well as Republicans. But we’ve had some pretty bad disaster under the Republicans”.

    • Replies: @Anon
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2020_presidential_campaign


    Affiliation Republican Party
     
  114. @Audacious Epigone
    I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way. People will be scared, considerably more so even than in 2007/8, and a Republican senate will kill everything that comes from the House. Warren/Sanders will be forced to act with executive orders and flounder spectacularly in the process.

    “I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way.”

    I suspect you’re grasping at straws.

    • Replies: @anon

    I suspect you’re grasping at straws.
     
    He's not. Reality doesn't conform to your political preferences. The US is in an enormous stock market bubble inflated by low interest rates and corporate stock buybacks, among other things. The rich are frightened by Warren and have repeatedly attacked her in the media. Result: she's lost quite a bit of support in recent polls among democrats, likely upperclass whites. The economy is not fundamentally sound, and it hasn't been since before the 2008 housing crash. I could easily see the bubble bursting should she panic the market / bring them back to reality.

    Trump ran as a Republican. That doesn’t mean he is one.
     
    Everything you just said about Donald Trump applies to Elizabeth Warren. She was once a republican even though she's now running as a democrat. Try again.
  115. @follyofwar
    The so-called Greatest Generation was the cohort old enough to fight in WWII, which means it ended with those born after 1927. Age 18 when the war ended.

    You, my friend, are part of the Silent Generation which followed, and ended in 1945 when the WWII vets returned home to make babies, which became the Baby Boomers (1946-64).

    I find it odd that, after nothing but boomers since Clinton's election in 1992, the democrats are so bereft of new ideas that they are seriously considering 3 very old pre-boomers (Biden, Bernie, and Bloomberg) to be their nominee.

    This party is starting to look like the gerontocracy which helped to hasten the fall of the USSR, only older.

    You are correct. My bad. I won’t let it happen again.

    But I will continue to push back, occasionally, against boomer haters. Theirs is a stupid and destructive meme.

  116. @216
    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.

    “Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.”

    That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    "That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios."

    you got things backwards. Red Dawn shows America 1.0, where everybody is on the US government's side, and wants to repel any invaders. today, that's not the case. we live in America 2.0, which has as it's explicit goal, grinding us into dust. new elites, new leaders, very different goals from the America that used to exist. the goal now is disarming all productive european men and turning them into disenfranchised, outnumbered tax slaves.

    like any big nation, the US is always on alert for it's neighbors signing deals with other powers. it always has to watch to make sure Mexico and Canada don't sign up with other international players. in any civil war scenario, the breakaway factions would immediately sign with America's foreign enemies. after the 2016 election, suddenly it was the people in California talking about secession. if California decided to become a nation, it would sign a pact with China and Mexico in literally 1 day to unite against the US - the US would counter by trying to keep Canada and Mexico on their side and not also signing a pact with the new China-California alliance. California would take all the military assets and bases, half the west coast ports, all the industry, and so on. that's instant war type stuff. just like the US civil war. suddenly, the entire continent, which has been mostly politically stable for 200 years, is in a global war in 1 week.

    alternatively, if there was any sort of nationwide conflict in the future US, the domestic side against the US would have to make pacts with Russia and China, to all attack the US together at the same time, with some agreement about how to split up the results. the US government would be trying to make counterpacts as fast as they could to stall that flanking action before it happened, trying to make sure Canada and Mexico stays on their side, trying to convince a weak Europe with little force projection to come help them when the Europeans could easily sit it out, and hoping that everybody doesn't gang up on them all at once, with many nations seeking an opportunity to take a slice of the possibly soon to be vanquished, hated United States, rich with spoils.
  117. @Corvinus
    "Were you unfrozen out of carbonite?"

    Romney, last time I checked, is content with being a Senator and not running for the presidency.

    "Stop drunk posting"

    I'm not the one quaffing down Trumpism like others here on this fine blog. Trump is not a GOP, not a Republican. He is marketing his own brand. He saw an opening, took advantage of it, and won against a brutally weak candidate in Shitlery. Praytell, what was his political ideology before running for the presidency? Was he consistently touting "conservative values" or the "Alt Right agenda"? Was he openly supporting the Republican legislative agenda while a private citizen? Has he become distant or more cozy with the Jewish lobby since becoming chief executive?

    Many questions for you to consider. Here. have a shot of Jameson on me...

    https://drizly.com/liquor/whiskey/irish-whiskey/jameson-irish-whiskey/p5138

    All that sounds sensible, except that it seems naive to think that Romney is no longer pining for the presidency. His desire to reach that height must be all the stronger because his father got close before his campaign fell apart in a humiliating fashion. His frustration is further intensified by the fact that he and trump despise each other, and he will have had to watch trump occupy that position for four or eight years.

    The Senate seat gives Romney something of a national platform, keeps him in the news to some degree when he wants to be in the news, keeps his name recognition going and his fundraising network strong. He can present himself (nauseatingly to some of us) as a “more tolerant, inclusive republican who doesn’t hate immigrants.”

    Romney doesn’t have an interest in a likely futile race against trump, or any other incumbent republican, to be sure. That is especially so given that such a contest would be unusually expensive and bitter and almost surely lead to the Dems beating the survivor in the general election (if only because enough of the losing GOP candidate’s most fervent supporters stay home).

    But Romney would love to run against a Democrat incumbent in 2024, especially if the next recession, depression, or major war (Iran) is allowed to hit on that Dem’s watch.

  118. @Corvinus
    Trump ran as a Republican. That doesn't mean he is one. Trump registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987. Since that time, he has changed his party affiliation FIVE times. In 1999, Trump changed his party affiliation to the Independence Party of New York. In August 2001, Trump changed his party affiliation to Democratic. He later switched back.

    In a 2004 interview, Trump told CNN's Wolf Blitzer: "In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat," explaining: "It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans. Now, it shouldn't be that way. But if you go back, I mean it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats...But certainly we had some very good economies under Democrats, as well as Republicans. But we've had some pretty bad disaster under the Republicans".
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Yes, I know he RAN as a Republican. It doesn't mean he IS one. Why are you having difficulty understanding the difference?
  119. @A123
    Here is the U.S. Constitution language:

    the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
     
    To me it looks like that if electors fail it goes to one vote per state. The "Majority of States" (26+) win. And there are 26+ Red (Trump) state House delegations in any tie scenario.

    Again, the Supreme Court would likely be dragged into the mix as the Democrat party hates the Constutition.

    The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President;
     
    The Senate VP vote is among VP candidates. So assuming the Trump-Pence ticket holds the Senate would most likely select Pence.
    _____

    Of course this is all hypothetical. The DNC is going to pick a useless, easy, slow moving target that Trump is going to shred and humiliate for the entire campaign season. A 50 state blow out is not impossible. The Democrat choices are really that bad.

    PEACE 😇

    I’d guess you’re right that the republican cucks in the Senate would pick pence instead of trump.

    But given the consistent margins of victory for Dems, and demographic changes further in their direction, the notion that trump or pence could win California, New York, Maryland, Hawaii, Vermont, or DC is obviously absurd, no matter who the Dems nominate. That’s 55 + 29 + 10 + 4 + 3 + 3 = 104 electoral votes in the bag even if the dem is the most disagreeable candidate and runs the worst campaign ever.

  120. @prime noticer
    "The president would be chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each State’s entire delegation getting one vote regardless of the State’s population. Only the top three electoral-vote getters would be eligible. The vice-president would be chosen by the U.S. Senators voting individually, not as State delegations, and only the top two electoral-vote getters would be eligible."

    then in 2021 we would end up with a democrat president and republican vice president, which is how US elections went for a 100 years, with the previous system: guy who gets the most votes is president, guy who gets the second most votes is vice president. but here, for different mechanical reasons.

    this won't happen, as i have Trump on course to be blown out by ANY of the democrats, a prediction i made on here numerous times. however, that would be a really weird alternate reality, with Trump being elected vice president in november 2020.

    Well, as for the House choosing a Democrat for president, it seems that way at first blush, but I think they’d choose a Republican (presumably Pence or Trump).

    The Dems utterly dominate the California, New York, and New Jersey congressional delegations, as well as Illinois. Most of the other States (Texas, Florida, Ohio, and most of the small-population states) have a majority-republican House delegation.

    CA 45 D and 7 R
    NY 22 D and 5 R
    IL 13 D and 5 R
    NJ 11 D and 1 R

    Probably we will not encounter this scenario in 2020, or ever in our lifetimes. But this is how the party numbers stack up right now.

  121. @216
    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.

    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.

    That’s probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely. And it would have to be a real defeat. The system survived the defeat in Vietnam. It would have to be defeat in a nuclear war, or unequivocal defeat in a really large-scale conventional war and that’s not possible because if the US was losing that badly they’d use nukes.

    An asteroid strike might do the trick.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    "That’s probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely."

    i've discussed this a few times over the years on other threads, with similar conclusions. how could the thing called the United States end? is there any way for us to get out from under it? it would have to be destroyed by some cataclysmic event. nothing short of total destruction would do it, because there's too much to gain for the elites by keeping some semblance of the United States version 2.0 functional, and in control of a large portion of the planet.

    scenarios like these are the only way we don't head down the inexorable path we're on, where the US becomes a doomsday machine with one goal, to grind european people into dust. because that's where it's heading. we are going to be tax mules and work slaves under this frankenstein empire, a resource to be allocated, not free willed humans allowed to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that's how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more - indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war, in one of England's colonies, and the first thing England's main enemy did, was sign an agreement with the rebels. France created the US, effectively. no outside enemy to help the rebels, no United States. England crushes the rebellion.

    the current appearance of a very stable continent politically is sort of an illusion. it can change in less than a year, like tectonic plates being steady for millenia, then shifting in a day, creating a magnitude 10 earthquake.
  122. Anon[418] • Disclaimer says:
    @Audacious Epigone
    Just estimating from elementary school figures. But looking at CDC figures for 2018, you are exactly right, with just a hair under one-third being to n-H whites. I'll change it in the body of the post. Thanks.

    Yeah the problem with elementary school figures is that it ignores home schooling and private schools, which while vastly less populated by children are also more white by the double digits, percentage wise.

    I just keep telling myself that ‘at least we aren’t Storm City, Iowa’ (82% white t0 31% white schools in a SINGLE DECADE, at least half the white population has just up and left).

    I’ll still probably move up north before I start my family and try to outdo you (what are you up to now, 3?) in the TFR game. I hear Polk county is especially white this decade.

  123. @Audacious Epigone
    That seems plausible to me. Yang's support doesn't overlap much with the rest of the Democrat field so he could legitimately pull some moderates to vote Democrat. He brings a lot of energy, he's likable, youngish, and wrt diversity he's only an Asian male, but a pair still beats high card and the other three guys in P/VP contention are old white men. Additionally, the prospect of a Yang president probably doesn't scare anyone (Silicon Valley possibly excepted) much.

    I totally understand why the establishment hates Gabbard and Sanders.

    TBH, the establishment (e.g. MSNBC) is irrational in their dislike of Yang. My guess is they don’t like his supporters.

    Yang is simultaneously both an outsider and establishment friendly (at the very least he is not anti-establishment). Yang also goes out of his way to be nice to all the candidates.

    At the first debate, Yang said Russia was the greatest geo political threat. At the third debate, Yang said “I would return the level of legal immigration to the point it was under the Obama-Biden administration”

    IIRC (I can’t find the video), Yang was asked which of the other candidates he’s gotten to know and he said he was really friendly with Joe Biden

    Also
    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/22/andrew-yang-teases-running-in-2020-with-joe-biden-/

  124. @Audacious Epigone
    I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way. People will be scared, considerably more so even than in 2007/8, and a Republican senate will kill everything that comes from the House. Warren/Sanders will be forced to act with executive orders and flounder spectacularly in the process.

    TBH, this is one of the reasons I would rather see Sanders over Warren.

    I think your scenario is accurate for Warren. If Warren wins, her base of relatively high earners will feel like they’ve done their jobs and not be motivated to fight more and Republicans will block everything. Warren will also have an establishment foreign policy (It will essentially be like Obama’s first term)

    If Sanders wins, I think he will continue fighting aggressively. I could see him continuing to hold large rallies, calling out corporations/ceo’s by name. I think for workers, this will be more effective. Finally Sanders has a better foreign policy.

  125. @Audacious Epigone
    A brokered convention is a real possibility. Sanders' support isn't going anywhere but he's not winning, either, so if some combination of two among Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg all plug along for awhile, the stage will be set.

    My gut is that either Sanders will win the nomination or it will be a contested convention.

    Here’s how it could happen:
    1. Other candidates fight each other: Other candidates have no incentive to attack Sanders as his base is dedicated to him. Even Joe Biden says “at least Sanders is honest.” Thus right now we have a Buttigieg vs. Warren fight.

    2. Billionaire backlash: As Bloomberg and billionaires try to stop Sanders, it could backfire on them. With Kamala’s resignation, I was honestly surprised it wasn’t all race and gender. (The top highlight on her Medium resignation note is “I am not a billionaire”). Cory Booker said the DNC rules were favoring “millionaires and billionaires” and that there were more “billionaires than black people” on the debate stage. Booker and Harris are neoliberal shills IMO. Booker even defended Romney against Bain attacks, so I was surprised to see him meeting Sanders halfway in rhetoric. Kamala may have decided to pull the plug rather than rebuild in part due to Bloomberg’s California ad spending.

    3. Differing incentives for individual establishment players vs. the establishment overall (e.g. similar to Rubio and Kasich being unable to team up early to stop a Trump victory). What if Warren/Buttigieg/Bloomberg (all of which are well funded) all do okay but not great. Also the calendar is front-end loaded so long as campaigns are completely broke , they might as well stay in.

    4. Better than expected turnout for younger groups: The latest Quinnipiac poll has Sanders at 52% within the 18-34 age group. What if turnout impresses in this group. Sanders is also doing well with Hispanics (a group that historically is lower-turnout). Sanders also has the financial resources to help drive turnout.

    5 A weakened Biden may not be the windfall the other candidates think it is: Bernie has a pulse with black voters and some Biden voters may actually gravitate to Sanders. Anecdote: I was in an uber recently driven by a older black gentleman and he said he would vote for biden though noted he really liked sanders but was concerned given his heart attack.

    Of course the key difference is that rather than the winner-take-most system of the GOP, Democrats award delegates proportionally subject to a 15% minimum)

    What if California (today’s poll is Biden 21, Sanders 20, Warren 17, Buttigieg 9, Yang 6, Bloomberg 5) turns into the following:
    Sanders 35, Biden 23, Warren 10, Buttigieg 10, Yang 10, Bloomberg 10, Other 2. Because of the 15% rule, Sanders could end up with a majority of delegates in the largest state. (Note: If some of the 10%ers get 15% in congressional districts, they could still get delegates
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/)

    One thing I am watching is the UK election today. If Corbyn does well, that could be a positive sign for Sanders.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders biggest problem is that he has no support among those 40 and older, and that's where the reliable age cohorts are, especially during caucuses and closed primaries.

    Looks like Corbyn did terribly.

    If blacks don't turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

  126. anon[323] • Disclaimer says:

    the extreme Left isn’t bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    Please explain to me how deranged, warmongering authoritarians with the immigration policies of South Africa and the economic policies of Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela maintain a functioning first world country amid massive incoming debt obligations, promises of free social services for all illegal immigrants, and concomitant demographic replacement of the nation’s primary tax-paying base. Seems like a tall order. You’ll have to excuse me if I say that I don’t think you’re up to it.

    All the right will be left with …

    Har har. Look at the democrat party. It’s a collection of extremist white weirdos and their pet minority groups which they go to great lengths to not live around or attend school with. That is what’s going to rule America? Goodbye USA. Imagine when AOC destroys the coal industry, which subsequently collapses the economy, because she read something on Huffington Post about Miami sinking under the ocean in 10 years. Imagine what will happen when president Stacy Abrams does as Slate Magazine suggested in 2017 and “blows up” Mount Rushmore because muh white supremacy. Imagine when the radical left promises free stuff to all illegal immigrants and about 300 million uneducated poor people flood the borders over 20 years, collapsing social services …. etc into infinity.

    But Romney would love to run against a Democrat incumbent in 2024, especially if the next recession, depression, or major war (Iran) is allowed to hit on that Dem’s watch.

    Romney would lose badly for multiple reasons:

    1) Demographic change, supported by Romney himself, means it will be next to impossible for the republicans to elect any candidate under nearly any circumstance, including war and economic meltdown. See Venezuela if you disagree; the election there wasn’t rigged, and the bad guy won on the backs of the ignorant voter anyway, despite the near collapse of the country. There are other examples I could give, too. And there is next to no evidence republican appeals to minorities will ever change voting patterns.

    2) There are tentative signs the republican base will not go back to a free-trading market capitalist like Mitt Romney post Donald Trump. Evidence: democrat election victories in Alabama, Louisiana, Kentucky, etc. and the popularity of Tucker Carlson.

    3) Romney is widely hated and his pandering to the mainstream media, all caught on tape, in 2016 against Donald Trump will make him nearly impossible to nominate.

    4) Romney’s policies now run counter to at least a third of the GOP base which will make him impossible to nominate again.

    5) Romney has been associated with the very policies he’d be running against – big government, tax cuts for the rich, war, and the predator economics which will be blamed for the next recession. He’s also associated with mass immigration. He doesn’t have a chance, and it’s just crazy to think the guy is delusional enough to think otherwise.

    The Senate seat gives Romney something of a national platform

    Didn’t he vote against Trump’s border emergency in the Senate using that national platform? Aren’t there rumors he’s behind an effort to rally republican votes to convict Donald Trump in the Senate? Yeah, the base would rather lose than vote for that guy. Even if he got the nomination, turnout would be so low that I wouldn’t count out the democrat winning 400+ electoral votes.

    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.

    I never would have thought that possible in the past, but years of anti-Russian left-wing hysteria (along with typical republican neocon warmongering from the likes of Tom Cotton) make me think this is a distinct possibility. If war comes, the US will likely be the instigator, which will make the public reaction to a loss even worse. If the losses are extreme, the nation may collapse in response.

    There is some historical precedent for this scenario. Enormous battlefield casualties in the opening days of the First World War caused Austria-Hungary to fall apart; leaders knew that outcome was inevitable after 1914 even if it wouldn’t later happen until after the war had ended. What’s more, there is evidence the leadership of Austria-Hungary knew a break-up was coming, even without war, and launched a massive military campaign as a last hurrah anyway. Could the United States similarly pick a fight with Russia or China or both in a fit of madness as it falls apart? Dark times ahead.

    This is why we lose

    True. Conservatives are outgunned intellectually, psychologically, organizationally, and financially by the left. The enthusiasm is definitely on the winning side and the losers don’t have the ability to change this dynamic even if you directly spell it out to them; many conservatives have for decades with next to no response from party leaders. Conservatives just aren’t psychologically equipped to win, and the nation as we know it will be wiped out in response. Even on the dissident right, you occasionally encounter a dogma-spouting libertarian who’ll tell you this all really started with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and fiat currency* and that all we have to do to fix things is somehow accomplish a vague thing in an unexplained manner. Not going to happen. Partition was the only shot and conservatives ignored it just as the whites of South Africa did. That group paid the price for their short-sightedness, and the middle-class whites of America will, too.

    This will be the ultimate proof, contra uncle Adolf, that whites (even Germans) are NOT the master race; they are weak-willed religionists obsessed with morality and adherence to ideology. That role, if it goes to any group at all, belongs to the Chinese with the Japanese and Koreans tied for a close second. Those groups aren’t moralistic, religious dogmatists as nearly all Westerners are, conservative and liberal alike. The Chinese adopt policies that work. Westerners adopt policies based on what makes them feel warm and fuzzy at that moment, even if it’s something that will obviously wreck the country in a few decades. In 2100, China will still be here and majority Chinese and technologically far more advanced than the West. What’s left of the West will be puzzling over what happened, with many remaining whites probably assuming the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 had something to do with it.

    “The Biden brutalization”

    That’s why I’m sure Trump did whatever then democrats have accused him of doing, even if they are corrupt and have something to hide in Ukraine themselves (I’m sure they do). He’s not stupid. Trump has a decent grasp of people, even if he’s lacking on policy understanding. Biden will be his strongest opponent as I have always thought. Somebody better prepare those Trumpslide people for 2020. They’re delusional. It’s nuts to believe the right countered the left’s insane Russia hysteria with it’s own Qanon and Trumpslide delusion. This result has been obvious to me for years now, but every time I’ve brought it up I’ve been ignored. People just aren’t cut out for democracy, I think. Not in the modern, complex world. All hail the conquering Chinese. Start learning Mandarin boys.

    *It’s funny how Japan has a fiat currency and seems quite stable and a nice place to live. Many white Westerners are already trying to move there, perhaps anticipating a collapse of the United States and Western order. You see lots of those types on YouTube and Twitch these days. Now, suddenly anime and vacations to Japan are all the rage. Shouldn’t the white left be staying here and enjoying the fruits of our greatest strength (TM)? Funny that.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    And, how will the Asian countries respond?

    There will be a large amount of freed up white human capital as formerly white countries are destroyed. Many will likely attempt to emigrate to remaining decent countries like China. Does China accept them? Does it only accept conservatives? Or does it just slam the door in their face?

    It makes sense to make use of the high human capital of the whites but at the same time, that's the logic our elites currently use to justify mass Chinese and Indian immigration.
  127. anon[100] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    "I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way."

    I suspect you're grasping at straws.

    I suspect you’re grasping at straws.

    He’s not. Reality doesn’t conform to your political preferences. The US is in an enormous stock market bubble inflated by low interest rates and corporate stock buybacks, among other things. The rich are frightened by Warren and have repeatedly attacked her in the media. Result: she’s lost quite a bit of support in recent polls among democrats, likely upperclass whites. The economy is not fundamentally sound, and it hasn’t been since before the 2008 housing crash. I could easily see the bubble bursting should she panic the market / bring them back to reality.

    Trump ran as a Republican. That doesn’t mean he is one.

    Everything you just said about Donald Trump applies to Elizabeth Warren. She was once a republican even though she’s now running as a democrat. Try again.

    • Agree: Jay Fink
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Everything you just said about Donald Trump applies to Elizabeth Warren. She was once a republican even though she’s now running as a democrat. Try again."

    Except I never mentioned Warren. So your point is...

    "The US is in an enormous stock market bubble inflated by low interest rates and corporate stock buybacks, among other things."

    Perhaps. Then again, maybe not.

    "The rich are frightened by Warren and have repeatedly attacked her in the media. Result: she’s lost quite a bit of support in recent polls among democrats, likely upperclass whites."
    |
    Right, the globalist cabal. Trumpsters and those who support Democrats don't need them. Upperclass whites keep making the argument that they need to be reined in.

    "The economy is not fundamentally sound, and it hasn’t been since before the 2008 housing crash."

    Tell that to Trump, who has been touting that under him it's been really good.

    "I could easily see the bubble bursting should she panic the market / bring them back to reality."

    Which is merely your opinion.
  128. Democrats and Republicans decried Russian Interference in our Presidential Election Democrats claimed Trump colluded with the Russians to defeat Hillary Clinton and demanded an investigation.

    The FBI opened Crossfire Hurricane on July 31, 2016 (6 months before the election)

    Andrew McCabe a Senior FBI Director selected 3 teams of 24 people to investigate. All 24 people were senior members of the FBI and DOJ.

    8 months later another the Mueller Investigation is formed and it goes for 22 months, what did it find?

    No proof of collusion by the Trump campaign, but it did find 10 instances where Trump resisted and objected to the instruction and investigation.

    The Bureaucracy demands an investigation of the Mueller Investigation, this Horowitz Investigation finds what?

    51 Misconduct violations by these Senior FBI employees.
    17 “Serious Misconduct Violations” of these Senior FBI employees
    4 Individuals who were considered “Informants”
    1 “Unlawful Informant” that folks is a spy.

    Let’s look at Appendix 1 (Woods Process Review) of the Horowitz Report, it finds:

    23 instances of undocumented “fact” stated in the 4 FISA applications
    18 outright “lies” stated in the 4 FISA applications.

    Folks what in taxpayer funds has this cost you and I?

    Crossfire Hurricane – 8 month investigation $16.7 million dollars
    Mueller Investigation – 22 month investigation $45 million dollars
    Horowitz Investigation -12 months $24.5 million dollars.

    The Democrats spend $86.2 million dollars to accomplish what?

    1. No proof of collusion of President Trump or his people.
    2. 3 people arrested and convicted of Tax Evasion crimes that had NOTHING to do with the Investigation or the election.
    3. 3 people prosecuted for process lies of which they never would have been involved had this sham investigation not transpired.
    4. 34 Nebulous Russians accused of election interference who can never be prosecuted.
    5. 10 Senior FBI and DOJ employees, fired, demoted, resigned, retired or reassigned for misconduct.
    6. 51 Violations by Senior FBI employees during the Investigations
    7. 17 Serious Misconduct violations by Senior FBI and DOJ employees
    8. 4 FBI informants “spying” on American citizens
    9. 1 Illegal FBI informant spying on American citizens
    10. HOW MANY WILL BE PROSECUTED, that remains to be seen.

    All of this because a career bureaucrat Hillary Clinton lost an election to a novice politician.

    We the taxpayer and American voter must re-elect President Trump and give him a House and Senate who will help him purge the entrenched bureaucracy otherwise known as the Swamp, Deep State or just garbage in Washington DC.

  129. anon[428] • Disclaimer says:

    That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios.

    1) I could imagine the US losing a conventional war to the PLA without the conflict going nuclear. No Red Dawn scenario is required, either*. Basically, the US loses over Taiwan — 100 + aircraft shot down, ~2 dozen destroyers, 4 or 5 subs, and a couple of aircraft carriers sunk. The US is then forced to sue for peace rather than risk losing Japan or South Korea or going nuclear. Going nuclear might cause the Koreans and Japanese to formally kick out the US to spare themselves Chinese retaliation. I have also gamed out scenarios where the Chinese have successfully invaded and conquered South Korea in a conventional war started over Taiwan. The public really has no conception of what war with China would look like. They imagine a small naval battle or some kind of immediate doomsday nuclear exchange when actually it would first go from a naval engagement to, perhaps, an unexpected land battle before the use of nuclear weapons, if they are used at all that is.

    Basically, the PLA has the US beat on manpower, despite modernization efforts, and geography. In any war scenario, they will seek to leverage this advantage — spread out the smaller US which can’t sustain a conflict over multiple theaters or resupply itself quickly, and then wear it down through attrition and resource boycotts. That certainly means an invasion of South Korea and possibly South Asia or even Afghanistan in some less likely scenarios in order to cause trouble in the Middle East. That also means the PLA won’t immediately escalate to the use of nuclear weapons in a future conflict because they think they’ll have the numbers on their side, and therefore the advantage. They’ll want to leverage that and not give it up by going nuclear right away. If it goes nuclear at all, the US will likely start it. However, they’ll be powerful restraints on this desire due to the objections of Japan and South Korea.

    2) Hyperbolic, perhaps. Anatoly Karlin has pointed out, somewhat reasonably, that a nuclear exchange might end up doing less damage globally than anticipated. The world will get along, but not well due to food supply disruption coming from the US, even if 60% of the US population is eliminated and the political entity that is the United States ceases to exist. Nuclear war is an apocalyptic prospect for those involved, but not necessarily for everyone else. This may very well make conventional conflict between nuclear powers somewhat more likely than some have previously estimated.

    BTW, now that we are on the subject of 2020 election projections, I seem to remember Corvinus stating on this very blog some months ago that Beto O’Rourke would win the nomination. Yeah, no.

    *There is indeed a scenario, although unlikely, where the Chinese might try to replicate some of what you saw in that movie. Specifically, they’d come in across Alaska and move through Canada as a diversionary tactic or to put pressure on the US to sue for peace in a war over Taiwan. As I said before, the PLA has the US severely beat in potential manpower, and they may seek to leverage this advantage in any future conflict. Will the US use nukes on Canadian soil should the Chinese somehow invade, something I wouldn’t count out considering Chinese intellectual ability and patriotic feeling? I don’t think so. That would risk Chinese retaliation against Japan. The scenario is far fetched, but still not as unlikely as you might think.

    Under the right circumstances, it’s possible. I’d say it’s more likely than an alternate history Soviet Union pulling it off. Canada might make for a tempting target, all things considered. Consider the following: Canadian forces are paltry compared to the PLA, Canadians are very liberal and probably not willing to fight a conventional war on their home turf, most American military assets are located far away from the continental US, China potentially has the geography to come into Alaska if they aren’t worried about the Russians (or if they can use South Korea as a spring board to boat them over in a D-Day style invasion), the US is divided demographically and is increasingly demoralized, and a future string of democrat presidents may so degrade the military through political correctness that they can’t mount a credible response to something as unexpected as an invasion of Alaska & Canada.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    In today's world, manpower doesn't mean anything, nuclear or not. Todays conventional ordnance is so accurate and powerful that large armies don't mean a thing. How many MOABs would it take to kill or maim 10 million Chinese in Beijing? You fight a modern army by grabbing onto it so it cannot use it's technological advantage.

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread79375/pg1
    , @prime noticer
    some good thinking here. i've had similar thoughts. in particular:

    1) people VASTLY underestimate:

    A) how much weaker and less effective the US military can become after 2 or 3 democrat Presidents in a row. by the end of Obama, the US Navy was having trouble not crashing ships into each other. the Ford Carrier is a major bust. as was the Littoral Combat Ship and Navy F-35. about the only thing that went right were the Virginia Class submarines.

    B) how much closer the US itself will be towards some kind of domestic conflict after 2 or 3 democrat Presidents in a row. trying hard to confiscate all the republican voters weapons, which apparently has already begun in Virginia. instead of having a united nation like in the cold war against the Soviet Union, having a violently divided nation at the same time a major geopolitical threat is reaching military parity.

    C) how much bigger and more effective and towards Navy and Air Force parity China forces will be after those 20 years or so, trillion dollar surpluses from trade every year, and clear and obvious intent to dominate the planet.

    the US military relies on the US Navy to control the planet. once the US government can no longer afford the 5 trillion dollars a year to pay the Defense budget, SS and Medicare budget, and interest on the debt, something will have to give. if the US Navy gives, China passes them. and the US can't pay 5 trillion a year forever. maybe 20 years tops. with the demographics and tax base the democrats seek in conjunction with the die off of the productive Boomers, maybe less that 20 years.

    2) people vastly OVERESTIMATE how destructive even a major exchange of nuclear weapons would be. the world wouldn't be blown to bits. half of it would barely be touched. the thing we call the United States Of America would probably cease to exist, though.
  130. @Audacious Epigone
    That seems plausible to me. Yang's support doesn't overlap much with the rest of the Democrat field so he could legitimately pull some moderates to vote Democrat. He brings a lot of energy, he's likable, youngish, and wrt diversity he's only an Asian male, but a pair still beats high card and the other three guys in P/VP contention are old white men. Additionally, the prospect of a Yang president probably doesn't scare anyone (Silicon Valley possibly excepted) much.

    Looks electable to me.

    Yang Gang 2020 !!!

    This next debate will be pivotal to his campaign. Make or break, he needs to push for more speaking time regardless of how the moderators behave towards him.

    • LOL: Agent76
    • Replies: @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    A pedophile and an Asian geek who wants to hand out checks to basement dwelling millenials?
    Really?
    I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
    That picture looks more like a VHS tape jacket from the '80's than a political ad from 2019.
    Just laughable.
  131. @Corvinus
    Russian Bot Alert --> "In his favor he has 63 million Americans who have already voted for him and have no real reason not to again. He will also pick up another 2-5 million new votes from people who were happily surprised he hasn’t been a train wreck."

    He has not built a wall, he signed a law that granted tax cuts for the wealthy, he engaged in a quid pro quo, and he lies repeatedly. Oh, and he loves Jews.

    That said, the polling is way too early, and I would surmise citizens have already made up their mind who they will vote for. Haven't we learned from 2016 (or Kansas gubernatorial races) about predictions?

    Can you just go away, Corfagus? You’re such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor–and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn’t have enough to keep you satisfied–hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn’t want you here at all.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Can you just go away, Corfagus? You’re such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor–and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn’t have enough to keep you satisfied–hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn’t want you here at all."

    I guess the schoolmarm on this fine blog let this comment which contains "dehumanizing language" slide. So much for standards...
  132. @Audacious Epigone
    A brokered convention is a real possibility. Sanders' support isn't going anywhere but he's not winning, either, so if some combination of two among Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg all plug along for awhile, the stage will be set.

    Biden is at 96% Biden, 93% Warren, and 84% of all the rest say they would. We learned from 2016 analysis that most voters are truthful about this. Switch Biden and Sanders numbers if Sanders was nominee

    Sanders supporters voted 73% for Hillary, 10% Trump according to post election CCES data. Which is equivalent to what they said in pre-election polls.

    Trump has increased in GOP share. Rubio but not Trump voters went 34% Trump, 21% Clinton, 45% Other/didn’t vote

    Cruz but not Trump went 43% Trump, 15% Clinton

    Trump or Rubio still only went 89% Trump

    Rubio or Cruz but not Trump was 24% Trump, 12% Clinton.

    among undecided voters on the generic ballot who know both biden/warren, her rating is a net-30 points worse than biden. among voters who support biden but not warren, she has a minus-20 whatever rating and a majority say she’s too far to the left. you have to grapple with this

    among the voters who have a view of both warren and biden, warren runs a net-3.4 points behind

    They lean Democratic, but only by a bit. The president actually leads Elizabeth Warren, 42 percent to 41 percent, among active registered voters who did not vote in either 2016 or 2018. Joe Biden leads this group by three points, and Bernie Sanders leads by four.

    Those nonvoters who say that, if they voted, they would vote for any of the three leading Democratic candidates seem no more likely to support progressive causes or a progressive nominee than recent voters. Just 13 percent of nonvoters who would vote for the Democratic nominee call themselves “very liberal.” Nearly as many of these Democratic-leaning nonvoters, 8 percent, say they’re “very conservative.”

    The results suggest that higher turnout, though helpful to Democrats in their quest to defeat the president, would not necessarily assure them of victory in these states. And the president’s ability to stay close among nonvoters suggests he could remain competitive in a high-turnout election and expand his support beyond his 63 million voters in 2016.

    For Democrats, part of the problem is that the demographics of nonvoters no longer work so clearly in their favor. Nonvoters are less likely to have graduated from a four-year college, and the president excels among the less educated white voters who are overrepresented among nonvoters in the battleground states

    The president, for instance, has a 17 percent approval rating among self-identified Democrats who didn’t vote in either 2016 or 2018, compared with an 8 percent approval rating among Democrats who did vote in either of those years. And Mr. Trump has a 19 percent disapproval rating among self-identified Republicans who didn’t vote in either 2016 or 2018, and a 9 percent disapproval rating among those who did.

    Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump among nonvoting black registered voters by only 59 percent to 19 percent, but he is ahead, 89-5, among those who voted in both 2016 and 2018. The sample of black nonvoters is small, at just 72 respondents, but the difference is well outside the margin of error. Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders underperform among nonvoting black registered voters by a similar level.

    What about whites without a degree, the president’s base? Mr. Trump has a 25-point lead over Mr. Biden in this group if they have voted in one of the last two elections, 59 percent to 34 percent. Those who stayed home, however, back Mr. Trump by a smaller margin of 53 percent to 36 percent. The pattern holds after controlling for age.

    Over all, Mr. Biden led among nonvoting Latinos, 64 percent to 24 percent, compared with a 63-30 lead among those who had voted in either 2018 or 2016. The sample of nonvoting Hispanic voters is fairly small, but the finding is consistent with data previously analyzed by The Upshot.

    Nonvoters are the likeliest group of Democratic leaners to oppose an assault weapons ban or to support reducing legal immigration to the United States. They’re likeliest to agree that discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against minorities, even though the group is only 50 percent white. They’re also likeliest to agree that political correctness has gone too far.

    When it comes to the candidates, Mr. Sanders shows relative strength among nonvoters: He has a 41 percent “very favorable” rating in the group, compared with 33 percent for Mr. Biden and 30 percent for Ms. Warren. This is at least in part because of Mr. Sanders’s longtime appeal to young voters.

    Not only is Mr. Sanders’s favorability rating the best of these three candidates, but he is also the only Democrat whose favorability rating is stronger among nonvoting Democratic leaners than among those who have voted before. His outsider status and promise of fundamental change, without much focus on cultural issues, might offer at least one clue for how Democrats might appeal to these nonvoters, though it need not be the only one.

  133. @Audacious Epigone
    I suspect a Warren or Sanders win would send the markets plunging immediately, finally popping the asset bubble in a spectacular way. People will be scared, considerably more so even than in 2007/8, and a Republican senate will kill everything that comes from the House. Warren/Sanders will be forced to act with executive orders and flounder spectacularly in the process.

    At some point in this absurd tragedy (in which we live), tomorrow will not be contiguous with today.

    At some point, it will become inescapably apparent that the Rubicon was, in fact, already crossed.

    Do you, I, or anyone think history is over, and that the future is simply a continuous series of iPhone revisions? That what we read of history occurred on a different planet, its participants utterly alien to us today?

    The people who RUN this country are 100% zealots to a religion that considers non-zealots to be utterly loathsome. They presuppose their own goodness and believe it is their right, by all that’s good and proper, to destroy those they loathe.

    This isn’t about change. It isn’t about reeducation. It sure as hell isn’t about persuasion. It’s about making those you loathe GROVEL at your feet as you kick them, demanding they beg you TO KICK THEM AGAIN!

    Angelo Codevilla’s writings over the last few years are a window into reality no one else seems to grasp (not even he does.) This is literally a religious war, and those who believe they’ve already won deem it their right to jump up and down on their vanquished enemies.

    I used to think the democrat talking points were just campaign rhetoric. I no longer think that view is tenable. These people really do think they are Masters Of The Universe, and they really do think anyone not in lock-step with them is theirs to torture at will, indulging in the PURE JOY of doing so. Look at them! They are basically in the throes of ecstasy describing how they’ll make everyone do what they demand.

    They’ll “ban guns” not to decrease crime but to hurt those who like guns (and like self-reliance.) They’ll demand kids get video instruction on how to do anal sex because it HURTS those who don’t want their kids exposed to depravity. This isn’t about making the world better, it’s literally about destroying or debauching what their enemies love, whatever that may be.

    2020 is the year it all comes into focus. Wait and watch.

    [For the record, I don’t think the near-literal demons who run this circus have the numbers of minions necessary to actually perform all these feats of Terrorism on the public. There aren’t enough True Believer Cops to pull it off. But in attempting to do so, the little cohesion left in this country will evaporate, leaving only enmity and rage to animate people’s actions.]

    • Replies: @anon

    They’ll demand kids get video instruction on how to do anal sex
     
    I can't imagine anything more likely to disgust adolescents than realistic and graphic depictions of a trip down the hershy highway. But to your more general point, sure. WWT was gratuitous as is the non binary nonsense.
    , @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    Nailed it.
    The so-called 'progressives' are destroyers. They BELIEVE.
    This is the miracle of socialism and communism. Belief systems. Hence, the attack on Christianity. TBS, Jewish belief systems.
    Wall Street is a Socialist Jew as well. They want, and got, the American people as their guarantors. Now it is Mutually Assured Destruction.
    They'll try to do an Argentina, burn it down then buy it back at 10%. I don't think it will work. They would need to spread it to China and Russia who have backed their paper with Gold.
    Who will they get to pay next time?
    There won't be anyone.
    Revolution, Civil War.
  134. @Justvisiting

    People will go a century or more before they’ll trust the issuers of IOU’s, so badly with this turn out. Every deeply indebted entity on Earth will crumble, from multinational corporations to governments to banks to individuals.
     
    I agree this will happen at some point in our future history (no clue when), but I think you under-estimate what the impact will be when it happens. National (and Euro type) currencies (as you note) are also IOUs, which means that "legal tender" will not be accepted despite the threat of the long arm of the law. That is stone age stuff.

    You know those History Channel shows about some obscure ancient civilization that suddenly disappeared without a trace--that will be us a hundred years after "the event". (Feel free to find your favorite cave and start painting on it.... ;-) )

    I don’t disagree with you.

    I can only worry about known-knowns and known-unknowns. Worrying about (much less the absurd notion of prepping for) unknown-unknowns is silly, a pure waste of time.

    I think that the love affair with debt (begun in earnest in the 1960’s when the money Americans used was floated fully fiat due to removing silver, the last monetary commodity peg, from coins) will end in a conflagration that burns down the inverted pyramid of IOU’s from the broad, flat top.

    Debt revulsion will start with IOU’s issued by the weakest entities: Corporate Junk (and almost all corporate debt is “high yield” already.) Next will be debt issued by local and state governments, along with debt issued by almost all consumers (AKA consumer borrowing will crater.)

    Whether bank demand deposits fail (bank runs are a thing of the past; now we have “bail ins” which are simply accounting recognition that the bank cannot return what it loaned out to defaulting borrowers) before rising rates choke off nation-state level borrowing is an interesting question. We know that if there’s a systemic crisis, the FDIC cannot bail out more than a tiny fraction of “insured” deposits. It’s like the Bank of Pompeii promising to bail out citizens affected by the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius.

    The last debt entity to go, possibly, will be banknote cash. Relatively little money is banknote cash, but it doesn’t depend on a counter-party for its delivery (if you already have it in your hand.) Before people give up the familiar, the familiar will be tried, retried and tried again. If I’m correct, when the credit economy freezes due to lack of credit-money, those in Authority will attempt to reflate the economy using banknotes, AKA literally PRINT THEIR WAY OUT OF THE HOLE. When (if) that happens, the final phase in the complete collapse of the monetary (and political) system will begin.

    The coming crisis (and it most certainly cannot be avoided, even if the timing is utterly unknown) will be a PROCESS. The road will not end, even when that process is complete. Life will go on (for those who are nimble and fortunate) and new systems will emerge even as the old one burns.

    And the criminals, scoundrels and demons among us will profit (mostly by getting cronies in political power to make them “whole” after crises occur.) Not much we can do about that, however.

    YMMV

  135. @Anon
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2020_presidential_campaign


    Affiliation Republican Party
     

    Yes, I know he RAN as a Republican. It doesn’t mean he IS one. Why are you having difficulty understanding the difference?

    • Replies: @Anon

    Why are you having difficulty understanding the difference?
     
    Why are you having trouble reading 4-digit year numbers? Or have you bought a time machine?
  136. @216
    1 mln naturalized per annum

    Silent Gen dropping like flies

    We need Self Determination

    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence. And it seems that that is what we are going to get eventually on our current trajectory. Not good for our children or anyone else’s.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence.
     
    How many people seriously want to secede? My guess is that among Unz Review readers it's about 95% and among the general population it's probably less than 1%. Even among whites it's unlikely to be much more than 1%.

    You have to ask yourself how many white liberals will want secession? The answer is - none. How many politically uninvolved whites will want secession? The answer is - none. How many mainstream conservatives/mainstream Republicans will want secession? In round numbers - none. How many white Christians will want secession? Among mainline Protestants and among Catholics, none. Among Evangelicals? None. They want the Empire.

    How many whites with valuable skills (engineers, doctors, etc) will want secession? Close to none.

    How many white women will seriously want secession? My guess is, a lot fewer than 1%.

    So the odds are you'll end up with a white ethnostate with roughly the population of New Zealand, say three million people (about three-quarters of that population being male). With no chance of economic survival since it will immediately be hit by sanctions and all its financial assets will be frozen.

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.
  137. @Charles Pewitt
    The Republican Party is a donor-controlled dodo bird heading for the boneyard of political parties. Good riddance.

    White Core America is the new political party that will honorably and patriotically destroy the evil and immoral Republican Party.

    Explicit White Identity Politics is the way to go to harness the energy and fiery spirits of White Americans born after 1965 who want to reclaim political power to advance the interests of the European Christian ancestral core of the USA. Many White Americans born before 1965 will abandon the Republican Party too.

    White Core America will welcome the vicious attacks sure to come its way when they boldly state their policies and their claim to power.

    White Core America has no plans to dilute its message or broaden its appeal to immediately attain the votes of most Americans. White Core America will start off as a wrecking ball to the two-party tyranny tearing apart the historic American nation.

    White Core America will use write-in votes or any other method to destroy the Republican Party in 2020.

    Young White Core Americans have had it with the greed and avarice and treason and base cowardice of the disgusting whore politicians in the Republican Party. The Republican Party politician whores are bought and paid for by vile and greedy globalizer money-grubbers such as the Koch Boy Crowd and Shelly Adelson and Norman Braman and Ronny Lauder and Les Wexner and Paul Singer and Seth Klarman and many, many other nasty globalizer plutocrats.

    Trump Has Betrayed And Abandoned His Voters On Immigration And America First And White Core America Will Gladly Earn Those Votes -- Thank You Very Much!

    There were 4 big political parties -- representing regional and sectional interests -- in the 1860 election and there will be 4 or more big political parties in the 2020 election.

    White Core America Party

    Green Party

    Libertarian Party

    Democrat Party

    Republican Party

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

    IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM NOW!

    DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS NOW!

    Do you remember? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

  138. @anon

    I suspect you’re grasping at straws.
     
    He's not. Reality doesn't conform to your political preferences. The US is in an enormous stock market bubble inflated by low interest rates and corporate stock buybacks, among other things. The rich are frightened by Warren and have repeatedly attacked her in the media. Result: she's lost quite a bit of support in recent polls among democrats, likely upperclass whites. The economy is not fundamentally sound, and it hasn't been since before the 2008 housing crash. I could easily see the bubble bursting should she panic the market / bring them back to reality.

    Trump ran as a Republican. That doesn’t mean he is one.
     
    Everything you just said about Donald Trump applies to Elizabeth Warren. She was once a republican even though she's now running as a democrat. Try again.

    “Everything you just said about Donald Trump applies to Elizabeth Warren. She was once a republican even though she’s now running as a democrat. Try again.”

    Except I never mentioned Warren. So your point is…

    “The US is in an enormous stock market bubble inflated by low interest rates and corporate stock buybacks, among other things.”

    Perhaps. Then again, maybe not.

    “The rich are frightened by Warren and have repeatedly attacked her in the media. Result: she’s lost quite a bit of support in recent polls among democrats, likely upperclass whites.”
    |
    Right, the globalist cabal. Trumpsters and those who support Democrats don’t need them. Upperclass whites keep making the argument that they need to be reined in.

    “The economy is not fundamentally sound, and it hasn’t been since before the 2008 housing crash.”

    Tell that to Trump, who has been touting that under him it’s been really good.

    “I could easily see the bubble bursting should she panic the market / bring them back to reality.”

    Which is merely your opinion.

  139. @afasfdasd
    Can you just go away, Corfagus? You're such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor--and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn't have enough to keep you satisfied--hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn't want you here at all.

    “Can you just go away, Corfagus? You’re such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor–and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn’t have enough to keep you satisfied–hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn’t want you here at all.”

    I guess the schoolmarm on this fine blog let this comment which contains “dehumanizing language” slide. So much for standards…

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    That's vulgar and puerile, but it's not quite dehumanizing. Profane, but not excessively so--at least not yet.
    , @Plato's Dream
    Standards don't apply to a tiresome cuck such as you. Do go away please.
  140. @neutral
    I don't think Kamala will be the vice president, more likely it will be that full black Stacey Abrams. There is a very real likelyhood she will be president because of Biden dying or being too demented, this means the the USA will a someone that is equivalent African strongmen such as Mugabe, and she will definitely going after whites with a vengeance.

    I don’t think Kamala will be the vice president, more likely it will be that full black Stacey Abrams. There is a very real likelyhood she will be president because of Biden dying….

    I don’t think that’s a very likely outcome, but if it does happen, this country is through. There will be war.

  141. @Corvinus
    Yes, I know he RAN as a Republican. It doesn't mean he IS one. Why are you having difficulty understanding the difference?

    Why are you having difficulty understanding the difference?

    Why are you having trouble reading 4-digit year numbers? Or have you bought a time machine?

  142. @anon

    That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios.
     
    1) I could imagine the US losing a conventional war to the PLA without the conflict going nuclear. No Red Dawn scenario is required, either*. Basically, the US loses over Taiwan -- 100 + aircraft shot down, ~2 dozen destroyers, 4 or 5 subs, and a couple of aircraft carriers sunk. The US is then forced to sue for peace rather than risk losing Japan or South Korea or going nuclear. Going nuclear might cause the Koreans and Japanese to formally kick out the US to spare themselves Chinese retaliation. I have also gamed out scenarios where the Chinese have successfully invaded and conquered South Korea in a conventional war started over Taiwan. The public really has no conception of what war with China would look like. They imagine a small naval battle or some kind of immediate doomsday nuclear exchange when actually it would first go from a naval engagement to, perhaps, an unexpected land battle before the use of nuclear weapons, if they are used at all that is.

    Basically, the PLA has the US beat on manpower, despite modernization efforts, and geography. In any war scenario, they will seek to leverage this advantage -- spread out the smaller US which can't sustain a conflict over multiple theaters or resupply itself quickly, and then wear it down through attrition and resource boycotts. That certainly means an invasion of South Korea and possibly South Asia or even Afghanistan in some less likely scenarios in order to cause trouble in the Middle East. That also means the PLA won't immediately escalate to the use of nuclear weapons in a future conflict because they think they'll have the numbers on their side, and therefore the advantage. They'll want to leverage that and not give it up by going nuclear right away. If it goes nuclear at all, the US will likely start it. However, they'll be powerful restraints on this desire due to the objections of Japan and South Korea.

    2) Hyperbolic, perhaps. Anatoly Karlin has pointed out, somewhat reasonably, that a nuclear exchange might end up doing less damage globally than anticipated. The world will get along, but not well due to food supply disruption coming from the US, even if 60% of the US population is eliminated and the political entity that is the United States ceases to exist. Nuclear war is an apocalyptic prospect for those involved, but not necessarily for everyone else. This may very well make conventional conflict between nuclear powers somewhat more likely than some have previously estimated.

    BTW, now that we are on the subject of 2020 election projections, I seem to remember Corvinus stating on this very blog some months ago that Beto O'Rourke would win the nomination. Yeah, no.

    *There is indeed a scenario, although unlikely, where the Chinese might try to replicate some of what you saw in that movie. Specifically, they'd come in across Alaska and move through Canada as a diversionary tactic or to put pressure on the US to sue for peace in a war over Taiwan. As I said before, the PLA has the US severely beat in potential manpower, and they may seek to leverage this advantage in any future conflict. Will the US use nukes on Canadian soil should the Chinese somehow invade, something I wouldn't count out considering Chinese intellectual ability and patriotic feeling? I don't think so. That would risk Chinese retaliation against Japan. The scenario is far fetched, but still not as unlikely as you might think.

    Under the right circumstances, it's possible. I'd say it's more likely than an alternate history Soviet Union pulling it off. Canada might make for a tempting target, all things considered. Consider the following: Canadian forces are paltry compared to the PLA, Canadians are very liberal and probably not willing to fight a conventional war on their home turf, most American military assets are located far away from the continental US, China potentially has the geography to come into Alaska if they aren't worried about the Russians (or if they can use South Korea as a spring board to boat them over in a D-Day style invasion), the US is divided demographically and is increasingly demoralized, and a future string of democrat presidents may so degrade the military through political correctness that they can't mount a credible response to something as unexpected as an invasion of Alaska & Canada.

    In today’s world, manpower doesn’t mean anything, nuclear or not. Todays conventional ordnance is so accurate and powerful that large armies don’t mean a thing. How many MOABs would it take to kill or maim 10 million Chinese in Beijing? You fight a modern army by grabbing onto it so it cannot use it’s technological advantage.

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread79375/pg1

  143. @houston 1992
    hmm
    1972: Muskie would have been stronger than McGovern,
    in 1980 perhaps Teddy Kennedy would have been stronger than Carter,
    1984: Gary Hart > Fritz Mondale
    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
    2016: Sanders with his old immigration realism >> Hillary

    Republican nominees
    1960 Gov Rockefeller/ Cabot Lodge > Nixon
    1976: Reagan >> Ford
    1988, 1992 Dole> Bush 41
    2008 : Pierre Delecto >> John McCain
    2012: anyone but Pierre Delecto > Pierrre Delecto

    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis

    Neither Bentsen or Nunn were candidates in 1988, however.

    Never-the-less, you’re still correct. It’s just that you should’ve referenced Richard Gephardt and Al Gore in your example as alternates to the Duke.*

    *for whom I voted, as I always enjoy noting….still better than a member of the Bush family

  144. @follyofwar
    White Dems should stop and think, a vote for Biden is a vote for President Abrams, if that's his running mate. Old Joe will not survive until 2024. Do you really think Abrams is smart?

    Yes, she’s tactically brilliant. She understands electoral demographics better than anyone in the entire Republican party, I think.

  145. @dfordoom

    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party.
     
    Do you think maybe there's a tiny chance that the problem facing the Republicans is that they are explicitly the Rich People's Party?

    And that Trump's problem is that he has to a large extent confirmed this impression?

    Maybe race isn't quite as big an issue as you think. Why on earth would any non-rich person want to vote Republican?

    The funny thing is, while this is the perception–and Republicans do nothing to dispel it–Democrats have massively outraised Republicans since 2008. For more than a decade, the Democrats have been the big money party by something approaching a $2-to-$1 advantage, yet still the GOP is too incompetent to shake the “party of the rich” label.

    • Replies: @A123
    It would be interesting to see "cash-on-hand" over time for the parties and other big players.

    -- The Dems raise money, but also consume money inefficiently and at a prodigious rate.
    -- The GOP groups seem to do better holding cash and deploying it late in critical points.

    I do not know if this is easily available.

    PEACE 😇
  146. @dfordoom

    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.
     
    That's probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely. And it would have to be a real defeat. The system survived the defeat in Vietnam. It would have to be defeat in a nuclear war, or unequivocal defeat in a really large-scale conventional war and that's not possible because if the US was losing that badly they'd use nukes.

    An asteroid strike might do the trick.

    “That’s probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely.”

    i’ve discussed this a few times over the years on other threads, with similar conclusions. how could the thing called the United States end? is there any way for us to get out from under it? it would have to be destroyed by some cataclysmic event. nothing short of total destruction would do it, because there’s too much to gain for the elites by keeping some semblance of the United States version 2.0 functional, and in control of a large portion of the planet.

    scenarios like these are the only way we don’t head down the inexorable path we’re on, where the US becomes a doomsday machine with one goal, to grind european people into dust. because that’s where it’s heading. we are going to be tax mules and work slaves under this frankenstein empire, a resource to be allocated, not free willed humans allowed to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that’s how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more – indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war, in one of England’s colonies, and the first thing England’s main enemy did, was sign an agreement with the rebels. France created the US, effectively. no outside enemy to help the rebels, no United States. England crushes the rebellion.

    the current appearance of a very stable continent politically is sort of an illusion. it can change in less than a year, like tectonic plates being steady for millenia, then shifting in a day, creating a magnitude 10 earthquake.

    • Replies: @dc.sunsets

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that.
     
    This statement exhibits an astonishing lack of historical knowledge. Education-by-Hollywood is truly Idiocracy.

    http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0234:book=37:chapter=9&highlight=dearth


    In our time all Greece was visited by a dearth of children and generally a decay of population, owing to which the cities were denuded of inhabitants, and a failure of productiveness resulted, though there were no long-continued wars or serious pestilences among us.
    --Polybius 140 BC
     
    You seem like a thoughtful person, but I so tire of people who know nothing and say much. Entire civilizations have disappeared from the face of the Earth, not because of asteroid strikes or plagues or military conquests, but simply because the populace embraced collective folly on a scale frankly similar to today's, and too many people turned their backs on producing the next generations of people. They were REPLACED because their society, their culture, lost its vitality.

    Look at the pink-haired, tatted-up, screw-any-hole-available, abort-the-inconvenient FREAKS our culture now fetes!

    That's your asteroid.

    "Bad Ideas" (AKA long-lived fads) are today's equivalent of yesterday's bubonic plague.

    , @Loosely Speaking

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that’s how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more – indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war ...
     
    Starting sentences with lower-case letters! Like you're belting 'em out so fast you don't have time to press the shift key! Kewwwl! I bet the other kids in your class can't wait to see what you'll do next to rain on the grownups!
    , @Audacious Epigone
    The softest landing I'm able to imagine is a currency crisis grinds the debt-fueled system to a halt. States look to get away from the federal government to avoid being left holding the bag. This manifests itself in gubernatorial elections where candidates run on peacefully leaving the union.
  147. @Corvinus
    "Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition."

    That's insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won't be any "Red Dawn" scenarios.

    “That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios.”

    you got things backwards. Red Dawn shows America 1.0, where everybody is on the US government’s side, and wants to repel any invaders. today, that’s not the case. we live in America 2.0, which has as it’s explicit goal, grinding us into dust. new elites, new leaders, very different goals from the America that used to exist. the goal now is disarming all productive european men and turning them into disenfranchised, outnumbered tax slaves.

    like any big nation, the US is always on alert for it’s neighbors signing deals with other powers. it always has to watch to make sure Mexico and Canada don’t sign up with other international players. in any civil war scenario, the breakaway factions would immediately sign with America’s foreign enemies. after the 2016 election, suddenly it was the people in California talking about secession. if California decided to become a nation, it would sign a pact with China and Mexico in literally 1 day to unite against the US – the US would counter by trying to keep Canada and Mexico on their side and not also signing a pact with the new China-California alliance. California would take all the military assets and bases, half the west coast ports, all the industry, and so on. that’s instant war type stuff. just like the US civil war. suddenly, the entire continent, which has been mostly politically stable for 200 years, is in a global war in 1 week.

    alternatively, if there was any sort of nationwide conflict in the future US, the domestic side against the US would have to make pacts with Russia and China, to all attack the US together at the same time, with some agreement about how to split up the results. the US government would be trying to make counterpacts as fast as they could to stall that flanking action before it happened, trying to make sure Canada and Mexico stays on their side, trying to convince a weak Europe with little force projection to come help them when the Europeans could easily sit it out, and hoping that everybody doesn’t gang up on them all at once, with many nations seeking an opportunity to take a slice of the possibly soon to be vanquished, hated United States, rich with spoils.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    You have a wild imagination. I suggest you sign a deal with Castalia House. You could be a great fiction writer.
  148. @Audacious Epigone
    The funny thing is, while this is the perception--and Republicans do nothing to dispel it--Democrats have massively outraised Republicans since 2008. For more than a decade, the Democrats have been the big money party by something approaching a $2-to-$1 advantage, yet still the GOP is too incompetent to shake the "party of the rich" label.

    It would be interesting to see “cash-on-hand” over time for the parties and other big players.

    — The Dems raise money, but also consume money inefficiently and at a prodigious rate.
    — The GOP groups seem to do better holding cash and deploying it late in critical points.

    I do not know if this is easily available.

    PEACE 😇

  149. @gman
    My gut is that either Sanders will win the nomination or it will be a contested convention.

    Here's how it could happen:
    1. Other candidates fight each other: Other candidates have no incentive to attack Sanders as his base is dedicated to him. Even Joe Biden says "at least Sanders is honest." Thus right now we have a Buttigieg vs. Warren fight.

    2. Billionaire backlash: As Bloomberg and billionaires try to stop Sanders, it could backfire on them. With Kamala's resignation, I was honestly surprised it wasn't all race and gender. (The top highlight on her Medium resignation note is "I am not a billionaire"). Cory Booker said the DNC rules were favoring "millionaires and billionaires" and that there were more "billionaires than black people" on the debate stage. Booker and Harris are neoliberal shills IMO. Booker even defended Romney against Bain attacks, so I was surprised to see him meeting Sanders halfway in rhetoric. Kamala may have decided to pull the plug rather than rebuild in part due to Bloomberg's California ad spending.

    3. Differing incentives for individual establishment players vs. the establishment overall (e.g. similar to Rubio and Kasich being unable to team up early to stop a Trump victory). What if Warren/Buttigieg/Bloomberg (all of which are well funded) all do okay but not great. Also the calendar is front-end loaded so long as campaigns are completely broke , they might as well stay in.

    4. Better than expected turnout for younger groups: The latest Quinnipiac poll has Sanders at 52% within the 18-34 age group. What if turnout impresses in this group. Sanders is also doing well with Hispanics (a group that historically is lower-turnout). Sanders also has the financial resources to help drive turnout.

    5 A weakened Biden may not be the windfall the other candidates think it is: Bernie has a pulse with black voters and some Biden voters may actually gravitate to Sanders. Anecdote: I was in an uber recently driven by a older black gentleman and he said he would vote for biden though noted he really liked sanders but was concerned given his heart attack.

    Of course the key difference is that rather than the winner-take-most system of the GOP, Democrats award delegates proportionally subject to a 15% minimum)

    What if California (today's poll is Biden 21, Sanders 20, Warren 17, Buttigieg 9, Yang 6, Bloomberg 5) turns into the following:
    Sanders 35, Biden 23, Warren 10, Buttigieg 10, Yang 10, Bloomberg 10, Other 2. Because of the 15% rule, Sanders could end up with a majority of delegates in the largest state. (Note: If some of the 10%ers get 15% in congressional districts, they could still get delegates
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/)


    One thing I am watching is the UK election today. If Corbyn does well, that could be a positive sign for Sanders.

    Sanders biggest problem is that he has no support among those 40 and older, and that’s where the reliable age cohorts are, especially during caucuses and closed primaries.

    Looks like Corbyn did terribly.

    If blacks don’t turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

    • Agree: Gman
    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt

    If blacks don’t turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

     

    Biden has Obama to thank for his position as the candidate most likely to successfully combine the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY and the GREEDY WHITE GEEZER STRATEGY and the GOVERNMENT WORKER STRATEGY. Biden will have a formidable bloc of voters with those three blocs, and other voters will be quick to fall in line and go with the guy they think can beat Trump.

    Obama will not undercut nor undermine Biden in any way. Obama will eat burgers on his new estate on the water on Martha's Vineyard and he'll read books and maybe eat some delicious potato salad made by the nice Methodist ladies at their lovely island spot.

    Warren and Buttigieg will wreck each other and Sanders won't be able to bust through to a new level of support and the beautiful Black church ladies don't much care for Warren nor Buttigieg nor Sanders anyhow.

    The big story of the Democrat Party presidential primary will be how quickly Biden wraps it up and how quickly the GREEN PARTY surges with supporters who refuse to vote for Biden or the Democrat Party ruling class. Biden could have the nomination wrapped up by March 3.

    The big story of the upcoming general election will be the rise of the new political party called WHITE CORE AMERICA.

    Trump has abandoned the European Christian ancestral core of the USA and those White Core American voters will repay the favor by abandoning Trump. Trump is a weak coward who wants to flood the USA with nation-wrecking mass legal immigration "in the largest numbers ever." Trump refuses to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    Trump has completely capitulated to the globalizers and the financializers by crawling into bed with the transnationalist free traders on tariffs. The USA must have a tariff system that is somewhere between revenue raising and prohibitive and Trumpy is selling out on trade for a pile of frigging soybeans!

    The Republican Party and the Democrat Party must be destroyed!

    It ain't that dramatic to talk of destroying the two-party tyranny attacking the USA, the USA just needs a coalitional reconfiguration like the Limey bastards just went through.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

    I hereby challenge Trump, Teddy Cruz, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton and Mitch McConnell to a 4 hour debate on American national identity, mass legal immigration, mass illegal immigration, monetary policy, health care policy, education policy, tax policy, multicultural mayhem, foreign policy, trade policy and any other damn thing.

    I'd rhetorically smash those politician three dollar whores like bugs!
    , @Charles Pewitt

    If blacks don’t turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

     

    Beautiful Black church ladies with their beautiful and beefy upper arms and nice handbags don't give a damn what CRAZY ASS CRACKERS in Iowa or New Hampshire do in their crazy ass caucus or primary.
  150. @anon

    That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios.
     
    1) I could imagine the US losing a conventional war to the PLA without the conflict going nuclear. No Red Dawn scenario is required, either*. Basically, the US loses over Taiwan -- 100 + aircraft shot down, ~2 dozen destroyers, 4 or 5 subs, and a couple of aircraft carriers sunk. The US is then forced to sue for peace rather than risk losing Japan or South Korea or going nuclear. Going nuclear might cause the Koreans and Japanese to formally kick out the US to spare themselves Chinese retaliation. I have also gamed out scenarios where the Chinese have successfully invaded and conquered South Korea in a conventional war started over Taiwan. The public really has no conception of what war with China would look like. They imagine a small naval battle or some kind of immediate doomsday nuclear exchange when actually it would first go from a naval engagement to, perhaps, an unexpected land battle before the use of nuclear weapons, if they are used at all that is.

    Basically, the PLA has the US beat on manpower, despite modernization efforts, and geography. In any war scenario, they will seek to leverage this advantage -- spread out the smaller US which can't sustain a conflict over multiple theaters or resupply itself quickly, and then wear it down through attrition and resource boycotts. That certainly means an invasion of South Korea and possibly South Asia or even Afghanistan in some less likely scenarios in order to cause trouble in the Middle East. That also means the PLA won't immediately escalate to the use of nuclear weapons in a future conflict because they think they'll have the numbers on their side, and therefore the advantage. They'll want to leverage that and not give it up by going nuclear right away. If it goes nuclear at all, the US will likely start it. However, they'll be powerful restraints on this desire due to the objections of Japan and South Korea.

    2) Hyperbolic, perhaps. Anatoly Karlin has pointed out, somewhat reasonably, that a nuclear exchange might end up doing less damage globally than anticipated. The world will get along, but not well due to food supply disruption coming from the US, even if 60% of the US population is eliminated and the political entity that is the United States ceases to exist. Nuclear war is an apocalyptic prospect for those involved, but not necessarily for everyone else. This may very well make conventional conflict between nuclear powers somewhat more likely than some have previously estimated.

    BTW, now that we are on the subject of 2020 election projections, I seem to remember Corvinus stating on this very blog some months ago that Beto O'Rourke would win the nomination. Yeah, no.

    *There is indeed a scenario, although unlikely, where the Chinese might try to replicate some of what you saw in that movie. Specifically, they'd come in across Alaska and move through Canada as a diversionary tactic or to put pressure on the US to sue for peace in a war over Taiwan. As I said before, the PLA has the US severely beat in potential manpower, and they may seek to leverage this advantage in any future conflict. Will the US use nukes on Canadian soil should the Chinese somehow invade, something I wouldn't count out considering Chinese intellectual ability and patriotic feeling? I don't think so. That would risk Chinese retaliation against Japan. The scenario is far fetched, but still not as unlikely as you might think.

    Under the right circumstances, it's possible. I'd say it's more likely than an alternate history Soviet Union pulling it off. Canada might make for a tempting target, all things considered. Consider the following: Canadian forces are paltry compared to the PLA, Canadians are very liberal and probably not willing to fight a conventional war on their home turf, most American military assets are located far away from the continental US, China potentially has the geography to come into Alaska if they aren't worried about the Russians (or if they can use South Korea as a spring board to boat them over in a D-Day style invasion), the US is divided demographically and is increasingly demoralized, and a future string of democrat presidents may so degrade the military through political correctness that they can't mount a credible response to something as unexpected as an invasion of Alaska & Canada.

    some good thinking here. i’ve had similar thoughts. in particular:

    1) people VASTLY underestimate:

    A) how much weaker and less effective the US military can become after 2 or 3 democrat Presidents in a row. by the end of Obama, the US Navy was having trouble not crashing ships into each other. the Ford Carrier is a major bust. as was the Littoral Combat Ship and Navy F-35. about the only thing that went right were the Virginia Class submarines.

    B) how much closer the US itself will be towards some kind of domestic conflict after 2 or 3 democrat Presidents in a row. trying hard to confiscate all the republican voters weapons, which apparently has already begun in Virginia. instead of having a united nation like in the cold war against the Soviet Union, having a violently divided nation at the same time a major geopolitical threat is reaching military parity.

    C) how much bigger and more effective and towards Navy and Air Force parity China forces will be after those 20 years or so, trillion dollar surpluses from trade every year, and clear and obvious intent to dominate the planet.

    the US military relies on the US Navy to control the planet. once the US government can no longer afford the 5 trillion dollars a year to pay the Defense budget, SS and Medicare budget, and interest on the debt, something will have to give. if the US Navy gives, China passes them. and the US can’t pay 5 trillion a year forever. maybe 20 years tops. with the demographics and tax base the democrats seek in conjunction with the die off of the productive Boomers, maybe less that 20 years.

    2) people vastly OVERESTIMATE how destructive even a major exchange of nuclear weapons would be. the world wouldn’t be blown to bits. half of it would barely be touched. the thing we call the United States Of America would probably cease to exist, though.

  151. @prime noticer
    "That’s probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely."

    i've discussed this a few times over the years on other threads, with similar conclusions. how could the thing called the United States end? is there any way for us to get out from under it? it would have to be destroyed by some cataclysmic event. nothing short of total destruction would do it, because there's too much to gain for the elites by keeping some semblance of the United States version 2.0 functional, and in control of a large portion of the planet.

    scenarios like these are the only way we don't head down the inexorable path we're on, where the US becomes a doomsday machine with one goal, to grind european people into dust. because that's where it's heading. we are going to be tax mules and work slaves under this frankenstein empire, a resource to be allocated, not free willed humans allowed to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that's how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more - indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war, in one of England's colonies, and the first thing England's main enemy did, was sign an agreement with the rebels. France created the US, effectively. no outside enemy to help the rebels, no United States. England crushes the rebellion.

    the current appearance of a very stable continent politically is sort of an illusion. it can change in less than a year, like tectonic plates being steady for millenia, then shifting in a day, creating a magnitude 10 earthquake.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that.

    This statement exhibits an astonishing lack of historical knowledge. Education-by-Hollywood is truly Idiocracy.

    http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0234:book=37:chapter=9&highlight=dearth

    In our time all Greece was visited by a dearth of children and generally a decay of population, owing to which the cities were denuded of inhabitants, and a failure of productiveness resulted, though there were no long-continued wars or serious pestilences among us.
    –Polybius 140 BC

    You seem like a thoughtful person, but I so tire of people who know nothing and say much. Entire civilizations have disappeared from the face of the Earth, not because of asteroid strikes or plagues or military conquests, but simply because the populace embraced collective folly on a scale frankly similar to today’s, and too many people turned their backs on producing the next generations of people. They were REPLACED because their society, their culture, lost its vitality.

    Look at the pink-haired, tatted-up, screw-any-hole-available, abort-the-inconvenient FREAKS our culture now fetes!

    That’s your asteroid.

    “Bad Ideas” (AKA long-lived fads) are today’s equivalent of yesterday’s bubonic plague.

    • Agree: Kevin O'Keeffe
    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    From Polybius' Histories, written around 140 BC.

    For this evil grew upon us rapidly [1960-1980], and without attracting attention, by our men becoming perverted [Grindr and Tinder?] to a passion for show and money and the pleasures of an idle life [the cult of Celebrity], and accordingly either not marrying at all, or, if they did marry, refusing to rear the children that were born [only whites play child support], or at most one or two out of a great number, for the sake of leaving them well off or bringing them up in extravagant luxury. For when there are only one or two sons, it is evident that, if war or pestilence carries off one, the houses must be left heirless: and, like swarms of bees, little by little the cities become sparsely inhabited and weak. On this subject there is no need to ask the gods how we are to be relieved from such a curse: for any one in the world will tell you that it is by the men themselves if possible changing their objects of ambition; or, if that cannot be done, by passing laws for the preservation of infants. On this subject there is no need of seers or prodigies. And the same holds good of all similar things.
     
    There's nothing new under the sun.
    We haven't arrived at the End of History.
    The Shit-storms of the past are not relegated forever to dusty books.

    Idiocracy is a movie; it's not a comedy, it's a tragedy. And anyone with a brain can see that as our world moves inexorably toward Idiocracy (due to demographics alone), it will be accompanied by a depopulation of humanity so epic that no poetic representation is possible.
  152. @dc.sunsets

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that.
     
    This statement exhibits an astonishing lack of historical knowledge. Education-by-Hollywood is truly Idiocracy.

    http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0234:book=37:chapter=9&highlight=dearth


    In our time all Greece was visited by a dearth of children and generally a decay of population, owing to which the cities were denuded of inhabitants, and a failure of productiveness resulted, though there were no long-continued wars or serious pestilences among us.
    --Polybius 140 BC
     
    You seem like a thoughtful person, but I so tire of people who know nothing and say much. Entire civilizations have disappeared from the face of the Earth, not because of asteroid strikes or plagues or military conquests, but simply because the populace embraced collective folly on a scale frankly similar to today's, and too many people turned their backs on producing the next generations of people. They were REPLACED because their society, their culture, lost its vitality.

    Look at the pink-haired, tatted-up, screw-any-hole-available, abort-the-inconvenient FREAKS our culture now fetes!

    That's your asteroid.

    "Bad Ideas" (AKA long-lived fads) are today's equivalent of yesterday's bubonic plague.

    From Polybius’ Histories, written around 140 BC.

    For this evil grew upon us rapidly [1960-1980], and without attracting attention, by our men becoming perverted [Grindr and Tinder?] to a passion for show and money and the pleasures of an idle life [the cult of Celebrity], and accordingly either not marrying at all, or, if they did marry, refusing to rear the children that were born [only whites play child support], or at most one or two out of a great number, for the sake of leaving them well off or bringing them up in extravagant luxury. For when there are only one or two sons, it is evident that, if war or pestilence carries off one, the houses must be left heirless: and, like swarms of bees, little by little the cities become sparsely inhabited and weak. On this subject there is no need to ask the gods how we are to be relieved from such a curse: for any one in the world will tell you that it is by the men themselves if possible changing their objects of ambition; or, if that cannot be done, by passing laws for the preservation of infants. On this subject there is no need of seers or prodigies. And the same holds good of all similar things.

    There’s nothing new under the sun.
    We haven’t arrived at the End of History.
    The Shit-storms of the past are not relegated forever to dusty books.

    Idiocracy is a movie; it’s not a comedy, it’s a tragedy. And anyone with a brain can see that as our world moves inexorably toward Idiocracy (due to demographics alone), it will be accompanied by a depopulation of humanity so epic that no poetic representation is possible.

    • Replies: @Kim
    The world is now running on the fumes of the fossil fuels age. When the global debt bubble that is holding up demand pops, everything will change forever. The not-too-distant future is mass death. What are the demographics of global economic collapse?
  153. Audacious,
    My guess is that narrowly scrapes out an General Election Victory if Biden or Sanders wins the nomination, with a 45% chance of defeat

    If it is Warren, he will win in a landslide as Warren is close to Corbyn, who got annihlated yesterday.

    Mayor Pete will win comfortably because he acts like a smart White man and isn’t hated by the media, and those types are pretty popular with working class non-Whites, and White Suburbanites.

    Sailer Strategy won’t work again, because no one really cares about Hispanic immigration, as opposed to this blog. He really won because of the sharp increase in Black crime in 2015, switching the Northeastern Midwest, not because of fears about Hispanic immigration.

    If he runs on the old Sailerian strategy of painting Democrats as the Black Party, and Republicans as the White Party, he will do worse among Jews and Blacks, but better among everyone else. However, he probably won’t, since that strategy has bigger payoffs, but higher risks. A total blacklisting by the media, and universal condemnation by both parties will result in a much higher chance of a general election loss if he doesn’t play it right

    No clue about the other candidates.

  154. @prime noticer
    "That’s insane. The world would be blown up to bits by nukes. They won’t be any “Red Dawn” scenarios."

    you got things backwards. Red Dawn shows America 1.0, where everybody is on the US government's side, and wants to repel any invaders. today, that's not the case. we live in America 2.0, which has as it's explicit goal, grinding us into dust. new elites, new leaders, very different goals from the America that used to exist. the goal now is disarming all productive european men and turning them into disenfranchised, outnumbered tax slaves.

    like any big nation, the US is always on alert for it's neighbors signing deals with other powers. it always has to watch to make sure Mexico and Canada don't sign up with other international players. in any civil war scenario, the breakaway factions would immediately sign with America's foreign enemies. after the 2016 election, suddenly it was the people in California talking about secession. if California decided to become a nation, it would sign a pact with China and Mexico in literally 1 day to unite against the US - the US would counter by trying to keep Canada and Mexico on their side and not also signing a pact with the new China-California alliance. California would take all the military assets and bases, half the west coast ports, all the industry, and so on. that's instant war type stuff. just like the US civil war. suddenly, the entire continent, which has been mostly politically stable for 200 years, is in a global war in 1 week.

    alternatively, if there was any sort of nationwide conflict in the future US, the domestic side against the US would have to make pacts with Russia and China, to all attack the US together at the same time, with some agreement about how to split up the results. the US government would be trying to make counterpacts as fast as they could to stall that flanking action before it happened, trying to make sure Canada and Mexico stays on their side, trying to convince a weak Europe with little force projection to come help them when the Europeans could easily sit it out, and hoping that everybody doesn't gang up on them all at once, with many nations seeking an opportunity to take a slice of the possibly soon to be vanquished, hated United States, rich with spoils.

    You have a wild imagination. I suggest you sign a deal with Castalia House. You could be a great fiction writer.

  155. @RadicalCenter
    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence. And it seems that that is what we are going to get eventually on our current trajectory. Not good for our children or anyone else's.

    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence.

    How many people seriously want to secede? My guess is that among Unz Review readers it’s about 95% and among the general population it’s probably less than 1%. Even among whites it’s unlikely to be much more than 1%.

    You have to ask yourself how many white liberals will want secession? The answer is – none. How many politically uninvolved whites will want secession? The answer is – none. How many mainstream conservatives/mainstream Republicans will want secession? In round numbers – none. How many white Christians will want secession? Among mainline Protestants and among Catholics, none. Among Evangelicals? None. They want the Empire.

    How many whites with valuable skills (engineers, doctors, etc) will want secession? Close to none.

    How many white women will seriously want secession? My guess is, a lot fewer than 1%.

    So the odds are you’ll end up with a white ethnostate with roughly the population of New Zealand, say three million people (about three-quarters of that population being male). With no chance of economic survival since it will immediately be hit by sanctions and all its financial assets will be frozen.

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.
     
    It is today, but today is not forever.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede. Then the crazy leftists get to be the pioneers that take all the arrow hits, and the Overton Window opens to allow secession to be considered as an option by everyone.

    , @Audacious Epigone
    Polling tends to find between 20%-35% of the population amenable to the idea. It's definitely much higher than 1%. In California, polling showed support for Calexit at around 20%. That was three years ago.

    There is a clear generational angle to it--young people are much more open to the idea than older people are.

    The idea that support for political dissolution indicates support for a white ethnostate is a non sequitur. The first secessionist movement in the US was in Massachusetts for what are conventionally considered leftwing reasons.

  156. @dfordoom

    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence.
     
    How many people seriously want to secede? My guess is that among Unz Review readers it's about 95% and among the general population it's probably less than 1%. Even among whites it's unlikely to be much more than 1%.

    You have to ask yourself how many white liberals will want secession? The answer is - none. How many politically uninvolved whites will want secession? The answer is - none. How many mainstream conservatives/mainstream Republicans will want secession? In round numbers - none. How many white Christians will want secession? Among mainline Protestants and among Catholics, none. Among Evangelicals? None. They want the Empire.

    How many whites with valuable skills (engineers, doctors, etc) will want secession? Close to none.

    How many white women will seriously want secession? My guess is, a lot fewer than 1%.

    So the odds are you'll end up with a white ethnostate with roughly the population of New Zealand, say three million people (about three-quarters of that population being male). With no chance of economic survival since it will immediately be hit by sanctions and all its financial assets will be frozen.

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.

    It is today, but today is not forever.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede. Then the crazy leftists get to be the pioneers that take all the arrow hits, and the Overton Window opens to allow secession to be considered as an option by everyone.

    • Replies: @A123

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede.
     
    Even better, sell Southern California to Mexico. They can have Hollywood and West Hollywood.

    Imagine how all those SJW actresses & actors will feel when they suddenly become Mexican citizens as part of the sale.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Hibernian
    They, and Oregon and Massachusetts, are practicing Nullification already.
    , @dfordoom

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede.
     
    Why on earth would California want to secede? A few crazy liberals always make those kinds of noises when there's an evil fascist Republican president but that's just a political strategy - they do it so they can claim that the evil fascist Republican president is Dividing the Nation.

    It's a cry-bully strategy. They don't have the slightest interest in actually seceding. Why would they? The liberals are in complete control. Liberals would not have the slightest thing to gain by secession.

    The "encourage California to secede" thing is just another right-wing fantasy. Liberals control the entire country and they intend to maintain that control. The Trump Presidency has demonstrated that liberal power is not under any serious threat.
  157. @Justvisiting

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.
     
    It is today, but today is not forever.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede. Then the crazy leftists get to be the pioneers that take all the arrow hits, and the Overton Window opens to allow secession to be considered as an option by everyone.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede.

    Even better, sell Southern California to Mexico. They can have Hollywood and West Hollywood.

    Imagine how all those SJW actresses & actors will feel when they suddenly become Mexican citizens as part of the sale.

    PEACE 😇

  158. anon[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @dc.sunsets
    At some point in this absurd tragedy (in which we live), tomorrow will not be contiguous with today.

    At some point, it will become inescapably apparent that the Rubicon was, in fact, already crossed.

    Do you, I, or anyone think history is over, and that the future is simply a continuous series of iPhone revisions? That what we read of history occurred on a different planet, its participants utterly alien to us today?

    The people who RUN this country are 100% zealots to a religion that considers non-zealots to be utterly loathsome. They presuppose their own goodness and believe it is their right, by all that's good and proper, to destroy those they loathe.

    This isn't about change. It isn't about reeducation. It sure as hell isn't about persuasion. It's about making those you loathe GROVEL at your feet as you kick them, demanding they beg you TO KICK THEM AGAIN!

    Angelo Codevilla's writings over the last few years are a window into reality no one else seems to grasp (not even he does.) This is literally a religious war, and those who believe they've already won deem it their right to jump up and down on their vanquished enemies.

    I used to think the democrat talking points were just campaign rhetoric. I no longer think that view is tenable. These people really do think they are Masters Of The Universe, and they really do think anyone not in lock-step with them is theirs to torture at will, indulging in the PURE JOY of doing so. Look at them! They are basically in the throes of ecstasy describing how they'll make everyone do what they demand.

    They'll "ban guns" not to decrease crime but to hurt those who like guns (and like self-reliance.) They'll demand kids get video instruction on how to do anal sex because it HURTS those who don't want their kids exposed to depravity. This isn't about making the world better, it's literally about destroying or debauching what their enemies love, whatever that may be.

    2020 is the year it all comes into focus. Wait and watch.

    [For the record, I don't think the near-literal demons who run this circus have the numbers of minions necessary to actually perform all these feats of Terrorism on the public. There aren't enough True Believer Cops to pull it off. But in attempting to do so, the little cohesion left in this country will evaporate, leaving only enmity and rage to animate people's actions.]

    They’ll demand kids get video instruction on how to do anal sex

    I can’t imagine anything more likely to disgust adolescents than realistic and graphic depictions of a trip down the hershy highway. But to your more general point, sure. WWT was gratuitous as is the non binary nonsense.

  159. Polling doesn’t matter. Trump gets another go in 2020 to facilitate the Iran War. WWIII follows. Europeans had everything and suddenly chose to kill each other. Why?

  160. This is in large part, Trumps fault for caving to the DNC by not prosecuting them and the Clintons and Clinton Foundation. Due to his taking terrible advice, Trump is now in a defensive position. He had every reason to go on the offense right off the bat. His voters expected it. People wanted the corruption, Civil Rights abuses, and the wars to end. Trump has made matters worse by placing Israel’s interests over America’s and antagonizing Iran for no reason other than to please Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran is not a threat to either country, both of which have had a history of threatenning their neighbors.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Trump was boxed in by Ryan, McCain, and Gramnesty. Remember all the threats to impeach if he fired Mueller. The reality was that half the Republican Party was hoping the Russia hoax was true.
  161. @MBlanc46
    Sometimes I think that maybe President Trump still has a chance in 2020. Then I look at actual data (such as it is). The world as I knew it comes to an end on 20 JAN 2021.

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/10/trumpslide-2020-cometh.html

    Trump still has a shot.

    There are very smart people who see him winning.

    But even if he wins it just delays the diversity Communist revolution.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    But such data—as contrasted with smart peoples’ musings—as I’ve seen suggests the opposite. VD is the first thing I read in the morning, because his optimism helps keep me going, but I don’t believe everything that he says.
  162. @Colin Wright
    'Why?'

    Why?

    Because at some point Biden's handlers have to let him open his mouth, and when that happens, the saliva will run out and start dripping off his chin, and that'll be that.

    Because at some point Biden’s handlers have to let him open his mouth, and when that happens, the saliva will run out and start dripping off his chin, and that’ll be that.

    No Malarkey is already tipping his dementia with every appearance as it is. With Quid Pro Ho’ now gone and Quid Pro Homo and Quid Pro NotANavajo ebbing, it’ll soon enough be Quid Pro Joe, and once that happens, the Trump squad with its record minimum $/vote in ’16 fixates on the 2020 edition of Walter Mondale ’84 and off we go.

    • Replies: @John Gruskos

    the Trump squad with its record minimum $/vote in ’16
     
    In 2016 Trump was promising to be an American nationalist. He had the fanatical support of American nationalists.

    Will he have the same support in 2020?

    In the past 3 years Trump has failed to deport the illegals, failed to build the wall, failed to bring home the troops, and failed to balance the trade deficit.

    He failed to protect his followers from Antifa violence and tech oligarch deplatforming. Indeed, his department of justice prosecutes any Trump supporters who dare defend themselves from Antifa, and he subsidizes the anti-free speech tech oligarchs.

    At the bidding of big Republican donors Sheldon Adelson and Paul Singer, Trump has embraced a cartoonishly plutocratic economic policy and an extreme Israel First foreign policy.

    He spits in the face of his conservatives and patriotic base by supporting cultural decadence (Lady MAGA, forcing gay rights on African countries), and promising to increase legal immigration and amnesty the "Dreamers".

    Trump has trampled on the First amendment with anti-BDS legislation and executive decrees.

    Trump 2020 won't have the same revolutionary energy as Trump 2016. Trump's young, internet savvy supporters are utterly demoralized.

    All he has going for him is the zombie Reaganism of the low information, low energy conservative boomers who gave us President McCain and President Romney.
  163. @Rebel0007
    This is in large part, Trumps fault for caving to the DNC by not prosecuting them and the Clintons and Clinton Foundation. Due to his taking terrible advice, Trump is now in a defensive position. He had every reason to go on the offense right off the bat. His voters expected it. People wanted the corruption, Civil Rights abuses, and the wars to end. Trump has made matters worse by placing Israel's interests over America's and antagonizing Iran for no reason other than to please Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran is not a threat to either country, both of which have had a history of threatenning their neighbors.

    Trump was boxed in by Ryan, McCain, and Gramnesty. Remember all the threats to impeach if he fired Mueller. The reality was that half the Republican Party was hoping the Russia hoax was true.

  164. Michelle Obomber may be on the Democratic ticket, even if it’s as the VP.

    She’s weird. But she’s been popping up a lot in mainstream media, and always getting her digs in.

    The final candidate for the Dems will be determined by a small group of wealthy oligarchs who operate quietly in the background.

    There’s really nothing to vote for when it comes to Donny boy. So, the masses will be directed to the democratic candidate. The masses are deluded into thinking they have choices and that they are making those choices…..not so.

    • Replies: @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    Do you honestly believe Americans will support a trans-sexual politician who is closeted?
    I don't.
    Too many Americans have seen the tapes of Big Mike Obama and his swinging thing.
    Americans have lots of reasons to repudiate the Democrats: Russia Hoax, impeachment hoax, Ukraine corruption, trans-kids and Drag Queen-pedo grooming story hour, etc ad nauseum.
    The Democrats have shown the world who they truly are. They are the squad. Climate change, social revolution, gender insanity. People see. They know. Many are quickly getting up to speed and the Nose is outing himself with all their shrill screams of 'anti-semite' and demands for censorship.
    This current insanity won't last. It is a death cult. We've seen 50 years of Cultural Marxism now and people hate it. They see the censorship and they don't like it. The unwinding of peak jew insanity has already begun. The neo-conservative Jewish capture of the Republican Party is unwinding. The Jewish Democrat city-state mafia corruption has peaked. There is nowhere for it to go. Identity politics is a death trap and people know it. All the air fresheners in the world can't kill the smell.
    The stench is making people retch. The people are beginning to cry out, 'Enough'.
    This won't go away when Trump leaves office.
    The cat is out of the bag.
  165. Trump is going to win in a Boris Johnson blowout that will stun the Left.

    It is simply not possible for the media to be so obviously in the tank for the Democrats and for the polls to be nonpartisan and objective. If there is value in capturing the press, then there is obvious value in capturing the polls.

    The point is that minority representation is already at saturation for the Democrats. For whites, however, the Democrats are still only at…what…43%? What percentage of these white people do they have to lose to tilt the election in favor of Trump? 5%? 10%?

    Trump does not have to go explicitly white nationalist to win because the Dems have gone explicitly anti-white. They’ve telegraphed their belief that America is a racist, classist, sexist and homophobic country whose economy is based on slavery and colonialism and who is willing to oil the machinery of capitalism with the blood of workers. They have explicitly telegraphed that America’s evil is due to its whiteness and it is pushing candidates explicitly designed to attack and enervate white people.

    They even have their government picked out: anti-white communism, of which Ocasio Cortez is the recipient wing and Bernie Sanders is the administrative wing.

    This obvious anti-white messaging is crafted in their mass-immigration-healthcare-for-illegals program, among other things. At the margin, large swathes of the white population will have no reason to vote for the Democrats.

  166. @RadicalCenter
    Abrams lost to Kemp by 55,000 votes out of about three million cast, 50.2% to 48.8% with the rest going to the Libertarian. That definitely does not suggest that Georgia is out of reach for the Democrats in 2020. That’s wishful thinking.

    I’ll guess that trump will win Georgia again, but repubs had better not be too confident there.

    Moreover, even in just two years between the Abrams election and the presidential election, the African population of Georgia presumably has continued to increase as always. (It’s sure easier to pump out the children when you’re not paying for them.). There are, presumably, also more foreign-born non-european people in Georgia than in 2018, and that demographic is reliably known to deliver dem supermajorities.

    Even slight dem increases in these two categories will require higher white turnout to let the republicans hang on to this State — especially if the Dem veep nominee is African and the Africans register a bunch of new voters (and pull out the stops with voter fraud more than usual).

    Moreover, even in just two years between the Abrams election and the presidential election, the African population of Georgia presumably has continued to increase as always. (It’s sure easier to pump out the children when you’re not paying for them.).

    What is the TFR for blacks in Georgia? It’s dropping everywhere else. The state’s black increase is more likely to be coming from places like California, which no longer offers them anything, and from the middle classes. They can vote soon after arrival, whereas those babies will have to wait 18 years, like Jimmy Carter did.

    How much of the Hispanic population in Georgia is even legal?

  167. @prime noticer
    "That’s probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely."

    i've discussed this a few times over the years on other threads, with similar conclusions. how could the thing called the United States end? is there any way for us to get out from under it? it would have to be destroyed by some cataclysmic event. nothing short of total destruction would do it, because there's too much to gain for the elites by keeping some semblance of the United States version 2.0 functional, and in control of a large portion of the planet.

    scenarios like these are the only way we don't head down the inexorable path we're on, where the US becomes a doomsday machine with one goal, to grind european people into dust. because that's where it's heading. we are going to be tax mules and work slaves under this frankenstein empire, a resource to be allocated, not free willed humans allowed to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that's how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more - indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war, in one of England's colonies, and the first thing England's main enemy did, was sign an agreement with the rebels. France created the US, effectively. no outside enemy to help the rebels, no United States. England crushes the rebellion.

    the current appearance of a very stable continent politically is sort of an illusion. it can change in less than a year, like tectonic plates being steady for millenia, then shifting in a day, creating a magnitude 10 earthquake.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that’s how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more – indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war …

    Starting sentences with lower-case letters! Like you’re belting ’em out so fast you don’t have time to press the shift key! Kewwwl! I bet the other kids in your class can’t wait to see what you’ll do next to rain on the grownups!

  168. @Lot
    Despite disappointments on immigration and taxing Wall Street, China tariffs have exceeded my expectations.

    I keep expecting Trump to get played with a “deal” that China of course will never comply with in good faith.

    China’s government is hostile to ours in a million ways, and had a policy of stealing our industrial jobs and technology.

    As with the Muslim world, I advocate for disengagement at every level. Less trade, less immigration, less everything. The Japanese, Vietnamese, South Koreans and Filipinos actually like us and can fill any economic niche the Chinese do for us.

    The South Koreans do not like us, especially those on the left. The Moon administration has enacted policies that, at best, are less than helpful to US interests.

  169. Polling modestly understated Trump’s performance in 2016…

    I remember one poll predicting a 98% victory for none other than HRC [against Trump’s meager 2%]

    Color me stupid, but that ain’t ‘modestly understated.’

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    You're talking about outcome odds, not polls per se, but the point is well taken.

    Polls had Clinton winning Michigan by 6, Wisconsin by 3, and Pennsylvania by 2. The upper Midwest was the difference. The national polls were pretty accurate--they had Clinton winning by 3.5 and she ended up winning by 2.
  170. I’m not sure of all the legal challenges going on, but if convicted felons get the right to vote in Florida as was approved by the voters in the last election down here, Florida is most likely going Blue no matter who the Dem nominee is.

    Yes, many ignorant Florida Republicans voted to restore voting rights to convicted felons without the first effing idea of what that is going to mean. A more self destroying vote has hardly been cast by any group of people anywhere.

    And in reading some of the comments above, many of you are correct in noting that this country will essentially be over if that radical piece of shit Stacey Abrams ever gets into power.

    Excuse me now as I feel the need to go watch my copy of Red Dawn with Patrick Swayze.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
    Florida voters giving convicted felons the right to vote was upsetting to me for many reasons. I heard it was wildly popular among conservative Christians. Back in the early 80s when the Moral Majority existed the Christian right was concerned about a LOT of different issues related to moral decay. Today the Christian right seems solely focused on abortion. They aren't smart enough to connect the dots...felons voting=more Democrats=more liberal abortion laws.

    The other thing that bothers me about this is it shows how conservatives have drifted to the left without realizing it. 20 years ago hardly anyone would be sympathetic to giving felons more rights. Even many Democrats would have thought felons voting was way out there. Today most everyone (except myself it seems) has a pro criminal agenda (criminal justice reform, no death penalty, felons voting, forcing companies to hire felons etc.).
  171. @Charles Pewitt

    Why did the American Revolution occur? Hint: everything you read in the history books was a lie, a complete and utter fabrication. People were well-off. But the colonists revolted anyway.

     

    The sectionalized colonial ruling classes -- especially in Virginia and Massachusetts -- thought they could get a better and bigger deal by exiting the British Empire than by staying in.

    Planter class tired of factors in England ripping them off and Massachusetts book people types -- lawyers, merchants, traders...etc. -- thinking they'd be better off without any British Empire bean counter middle men around clam raking loot they thought should rightfully be theirs.

    Sam Francis gets more and more right the older I get.

    It's always about the current ruling class and the potential ruling class.

    White Core America is the new ruling class in waiting that will remove the evil and immoral JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire from power.

    Remember, the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire owns and controls the private consortium of banks called the Federal Reserve Bank.

    If the federal funds rate were to go to the normal level of 6 percent, the asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate would implode in ten minutes.

    It's all about the JEW/WASP ruling class and monetary policy and demography.

    There is no wasp ruling elite. There is only a Bolshevik jewish ruling elite.

    wasps in government are shabbos goy and they do the bidding of their jewish donors……which means open borders and the race replacement of white people. “Boomers” had nothing to do with it. The boomer blame is simply a deflection away from the jewish nation wreckers.

    I don’t believe any of the polls. They were 100% wrong the last time.

    However….it is true that the GOP is toast and that white people are screwed. There are no political solutions to this problem.

    • Replies: @Sam Coulton
    The so-called "replacement of white people" has largely been the result of low white birth rates, not immigration. Whites would still be a majority (+75%) of this country if they maintained the birth rate they had in 1960, even with the immigration this country received.

    The low white birthrate is also what contributed to the election of "RINOS" and Democrats. The first measure of action is the impregnation of females, and when that's not happening repeatedly, the culture is inactive.
  172. @Robert Dolan
    There is no wasp ruling elite. There is only a Bolshevik jewish ruling elite.

    wasps in government are shabbos goy and they do the bidding of their jewish donors......which means open borders and the race replacement of white people. "Boomers" had nothing to do with it. The boomer blame is simply a deflection away from the jewish nation wreckers.

    I don't believe any of the polls. They were 100% wrong the last time.

    However....it is true that the GOP is toast and that white people are screwed. There are no political solutions to this problem.

    The so-called “replacement of white people” has largely been the result of low white birth rates, not immigration. Whites would still be a majority (+75%) of this country if they maintained the birth rate they had in 1960, even with the immigration this country received.

    The low white birthrate is also what contributed to the election of “RINOS” and Democrats. The first measure of action is the impregnation of females, and when that’s not happening repeatedly, the culture is inactive.

    • Disagree: Robert Dolan
    • Replies: @Kim
    In the debt disaster that is now facing the world - an unrepayable $250 Tn on a fragile GDP of $70 Tn - birth rates will matter very little in the coming decades as the US and world population plummets. What will matter most is survival rates.

    Those who depend on others for their food, water, and defenses will do very little breeding and a lot of dying. The importance of this election in this context - marginal.
    , @Robert Dolan
    Since Celler and Javitz opened the border in 1965, one and a half MILLION Democrat voters have been coming in every year.

    We have around 30 million illegals to add to the 60 million legal invaders.

    Yes, the jews have lowered our birthrates via attacks on the religious infrastructure that supported family formation, the destruction of jobs for white males due to affirmative action, globalist outsourcing of jobs, feminism to ruin our women, etc., but mass immigration is the weapon that has ruined our country forever.
    , @glasno
    Your logic doesn't work. You are implying by saying "so called white replacement", that white replacement isn't happening. But then you state whites aren't having enough children and also quote the immigration numbers. So you admit whites are being replaced by immigration then. Just because you have identified one of the pieces of the puzzle doesn't mean the other pieces don't exist and don't make up an entire picture. Do you think maybe low white birth rates IS the mechanism itself? However the picture is made we do know what it looks like, White People are Objectively Being Replaced in their Homelands, Period, that is a fact not an opinion.
  173. When I was working in a national newsroom during the 2004 election all our on-the-ground connections with the other major networks and newspapers unofficially called a heavy victory for Kerry because of the exit polls. Hours later, when Bush was announced the winner, I found myself sitting in the midst of a sea of stunned faces & so quiet you could hear a pin drop. So much for polls.

    In 2016, when polls were had been anointing Hilary the Queen of America as much as a year in advance of the election, you only needed to take a drive anywhere in Pennsylvania to realize every single election sign was for Trump. When Trump came to town he would overflow a 25,000 capacity arena–and still does; Hillary would draw some 400 people when she deigned to stop at the local airport. It was obvious the “polls” were completely bogus.

    I wouldn’t believe the polls or government statistics. After 35 years of Democratic rule, Pennsylvania is now solid Trump territory. All that’s left here is unemployment and zillions of illegal aliens. All the Democrats promise is more of the same.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    I wouldn’t believe the polls or government statistics.
     
    Or election results. Clearly a scam.

    All that’s left here is unemployment and zillions of illegal aliens.
     
    Okay, but why vote Republican? They are just as in favour of illegal immigration. You think the owners and managers of the chicken plants are leftist Democrats? Lol. The one guy who tried to do something was Barletta and he got screwed over by the courts because white people are not allowed to have a nation.
  174. @gman
    Ohio as blue in all three scenarios seems aggressive for Dems. Trump won it in 2016 52-44.

    My view is that the nominee AND the running mate are going to matter. I actually do think if Hillary picked someone other than Tim Kaine, she could have one

    For the reasons outlined here ( https://blog.politicalalertengine.com/dems-should-pass-on-kamala-as-vp ), I think Harris is a bad running mate.

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Get Destroyed
    Buttigieg-Harris
    Warren-Castro

    Sanders is high-risk/high-reward IMO (with a Sanders nomination, you do better in places like the Midwest but establishment may secretly prefer a Trump win; also if Sanders were to win, a third-party centrist candidate may appear)

    Plausible Scenarios Where Dems Clean House
    Biden-Yang
    Biden-Warren

    ROFL!
    Trump in a landslide!
    Hopefully he’ll exorcize Satanic Neocon and Christian Zionist influence out of his WH in a second term but I’m not holding my breath.

  175. @songbird
    I have a hard time believing Warren could win. She is just so shrill that she alienates even the average normie man.

    I would not be surprised if the average normie man finds her shrillness attractive.

  176. @Sam Coulton
    The so-called "replacement of white people" has largely been the result of low white birth rates, not immigration. Whites would still be a majority (+75%) of this country if they maintained the birth rate they had in 1960, even with the immigration this country received.

    The low white birthrate is also what contributed to the election of "RINOS" and Democrats. The first measure of action is the impregnation of females, and when that's not happening repeatedly, the culture is inactive.

    In the debt disaster that is now facing the world – an unrepayable $250 Tn on a fragile GDP of $70 Tn – birth rates will matter very little in the coming decades as the US and world population plummets. What will matter most is survival rates.

    Those who depend on others for their food, water, and defenses will do very little breeding and a lot of dying. The importance of this election in this context – marginal.

  177. @dc.sunsets
    From Polybius' Histories, written around 140 BC.

    For this evil grew upon us rapidly [1960-1980], and without attracting attention, by our men becoming perverted [Grindr and Tinder?] to a passion for show and money and the pleasures of an idle life [the cult of Celebrity], and accordingly either not marrying at all, or, if they did marry, refusing to rear the children that were born [only whites play child support], or at most one or two out of a great number, for the sake of leaving them well off or bringing them up in extravagant luxury. For when there are only one or two sons, it is evident that, if war or pestilence carries off one, the houses must be left heirless: and, like swarms of bees, little by little the cities become sparsely inhabited and weak. On this subject there is no need to ask the gods how we are to be relieved from such a curse: for any one in the world will tell you that it is by the men themselves if possible changing their objects of ambition; or, if that cannot be done, by passing laws for the preservation of infants. On this subject there is no need of seers or prodigies. And the same holds good of all similar things.
     
    There's nothing new under the sun.
    We haven't arrived at the End of History.
    The Shit-storms of the past are not relegated forever to dusty books.

    Idiocracy is a movie; it's not a comedy, it's a tragedy. And anyone with a brain can see that as our world moves inexorably toward Idiocracy (due to demographics alone), it will be accompanied by a depopulation of humanity so epic that no poetic representation is possible.

    The world is now running on the fumes of the fossil fuels age. When the global debt bubble that is holding up demand pops, everything will change forever. The not-too-distant future is mass death. What are the demographics of global economic collapse?

    • Agree: Marshall Lentini
    • Replies: @Sol
    "What are the demographics of global economic collapse?"

    We shall see.
  178. @Justvisiting

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.
     
    It is today, but today is not forever.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede. Then the crazy leftists get to be the pioneers that take all the arrow hits, and the Overton Window opens to allow secession to be considered as an option by everyone.

    They, and Oregon and Massachusetts, are practicing Nullification already.

  179. @Corvinus
    "He has built more wall than the last three presidents and is on track to have one fully built by November next year. He has also reduced the amount of illegal immigration into the US."

    To date (August 2019), the administration has replaced about 60 miles of dilapidated barriers with new fencing. And a major component of Trump’s pledge — that Mexico would pay for the wall — hasn’t been part of the equation. U.S. taxpayers have paid the cost.

    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2019/aug/30/donald-trumps-border-wall-how-much-has-really-been

    "So right now, 78 miles have been built, have been built where there was an existing form of barrier," [Acting CBP Commissioner Mark] Morgan said, effectively admitting that none of the wall that has been constructed has been in new areas.

    For the record, I have no problem with rebuilding and/or replacing our border wall. But Trump has failed to deliver on his campaign promise.

    https://www.newsweek.com/cbp-no-new-border-wall-1472077

    "If you want to bring money back into the country where it can do some good, you have to reduce taxes."

    So what has been its level of effectiveness accomplishing that task?

    https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tax-cut-effects-20190529-story.html

    Perhaps if Trump, like past presidents, would offer up his tax returns, we can see how much money he personally has "brought back" to our nation.

    Of course, it would help that we stop outsourcing jobs. How has Trump fared here, besides having had his own merchandise made overseas?

    https://www.citizen.org/news/trump-touts-pledge-to-americas-workers-anniversary-while-participating-firms-that-promised-new-american-jobs-outsource-trump-rewards-outsourcers-with-billions-in-contracts/

    "Ohhh, you mean getting Ukraine to follow up on the terms of the mutual-assistance treaty between the US and Ukraine to investigate corruption instigated by US politicians."

    No, I mean how President Trump employed one of his henchmen to find dirt on a political rival, rather than going through the proper legal channels. You have an odd way of describing patently questionable conduct.

    "Projection. You lie far more than he does."

    LOL. I don't tweet, and I don't have his knack for outright lying on a continual basis. As far as your charge is concerned, you're going to have to definitively prove it or retract your statement. You have much work to do.

    HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard.

    Regarding Ukraine – you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won’t get behind. You damage your credibility when you advocate for such silliness.

    The same with lies – you aren’t so naive to think that BO didn’t lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C’mon.

    Economics. BO had eight years of basically zero interest rates while DJT had eight interest rate hikes in his first two years.

    As usual, it’s a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard."

    And yet he has not delivered on building a wall or deporting those illegals.

    "Regarding Ukraine – you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won’t get behind."

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven't been paying attention.

    Privately, a number are on board. Publicly, they will deny it.

    "The same with lies – you aren’t so naive to think that BO didn’t lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C’mon."

    That is a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made those assertions.

    "As usual, it’s a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land."

    We assume that Biden will get the nomination. And, its worser vs. worse.

  180. @dc.sunsets
    All this is meaningless.

    It's kabuki theater. If the Left (the Deep State) gets fully back into power, the S will HTF.

    It's a given. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me in the least that this was already war-gamed, and that the vertical, 10 year market rallies (bonds and stocks), coming after a 9 year bear market (2000-2009) and a stunningly vertical 1974/82-2000 moon-shot, will reverse a year from now (+/-) and that the Ruling Class' behavior (doubling down on crushing "Deplorables' Dissent") will combine with rapidly growing economic hardship to set off a very real, very bloody revolution in the USA.

    Damn it, what is anyone looking at?!

    Run a graph of the DJIA from 1928 to now. Look at the St. Louis Fed's FRED graph of TCMDO (total credit market debt outstanding.) READ Codevilla's essay "Our Revolution's Logic." https://americanmind.org/essays/our-revolutions-logic/

    Then try, just try to tell me that a year from now, if Trump wins reelection and the Ruling Elite goes even more to war, or if the Demoncrat gets elected and near-literally unleashes the Dogs of War on MAGA-hat-wearing foes, that we'll all just be hammering our keyboards while sipping coffee like always.

    We're heading for a cataclysm, and the election is borderline irrelevant.

    Replace bloody revolution with concentration camps, and you’re spot on about the irrelevancy of the election. Orange man turns out to have been nothing but a Manchurian candidate. While the conservative seals clap at all that “winning”, Trump actually has done nothing for them. Having said that, if the planned economic collapse doesn’t happen during Trump’s current term, he’ll likely get a second one. Donny’s financial debt to the global elite must be staggering .

    • Agree: Haxo Angmark
  181. @anon

    the extreme Left isn’t bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.
     
    Please explain to me how deranged, warmongering authoritarians with the immigration policies of South Africa and the economic policies of Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela maintain a functioning first world country amid massive incoming debt obligations, promises of free social services for all illegal immigrants, and concomitant demographic replacement of the nation’s primary tax-paying base. Seems like a tall order. You'll have to excuse me if I say that I don't think you're up to it.

    All the right will be left with ...
     
    Har har. Look at the democrat party. It's a collection of extremist white weirdos and their pet minority groups which they go to great lengths to not live around or attend school with. That is what's going to rule America? Goodbye USA. Imagine when AOC destroys the coal industry, which subsequently collapses the economy, because she read something on Huffington Post about Miami sinking under the ocean in 10 years. Imagine what will happen when president Stacy Abrams does as Slate Magazine suggested in 2017 and "blows up" Mount Rushmore because muh white supremacy. Imagine when the radical left promises free stuff to all illegal immigrants and about 300 million uneducated poor people flood the borders over 20 years, collapsing social services .... etc into infinity.

    But Romney would love to run against a Democrat incumbent in 2024, especially if the next recession, depression, or major war (Iran) is allowed to hit on that Dem’s watch.
     
    Romney would lose badly for multiple reasons:

    1) Demographic change, supported by Romney himself, means it will be next to impossible for the republicans to elect any candidate under nearly any circumstance, including war and economic meltdown. See Venezuela if you disagree; the election there wasn’t rigged, and the bad guy won on the backs of the ignorant voter anyway, despite the near collapse of the country. There are other examples I could give, too. And there is next to no evidence republican appeals to minorities will ever change voting patterns.

    2) There are tentative signs the republican base will not go back to a free-trading market capitalist like Mitt Romney post Donald Trump. Evidence: democrat election victories in Alabama, Louisiana, Kentucky, etc. and the popularity of Tucker Carlson.

    3) Romney is widely hated and his pandering to the mainstream media, all caught on tape, in 2016 against Donald Trump will make him nearly impossible to nominate.

    4) Romney’s policies now run counter to at least a third of the GOP base which will make him impossible to nominate again.

    5) Romney has been associated with the very policies he’d be running against – big government, tax cuts for the rich, war, and the predator economics which will be blamed for the next recession. He's also associated with mass immigration. He doesn't have a chance, and it's just crazy to think the guy is delusional enough to think otherwise.

    The Senate seat gives Romney something of a national platform
     
    Didn’t he vote against Trump’s border emergency in the Senate using that national platform? Aren't there rumors he's behind an effort to rally republican votes to convict Donald Trump in the Senate? Yeah, the base would rather lose than vote for that guy. Even if he got the nomination, turnout would be so low that I wouldn’t count out the democrat winning 400+ electoral votes.

    Pray that the US loses a war to China and Russia; subsequent partition.
     
    I never would have thought that possible in the past, but years of anti-Russian left-wing hysteria (along with typical republican neocon warmongering from the likes of Tom Cotton) make me think this is a distinct possibility. If war comes, the US will likely be the instigator, which will make the public reaction to a loss even worse. If the losses are extreme, the nation may collapse in response.

    There is some historical precedent for this scenario. Enormous battlefield casualties in the opening days of the First World War caused Austria-Hungary to fall apart; leaders knew that outcome was inevitable after 1914 even if it wouldn’t later happen until after the war had ended. What’s more, there is evidence the leadership of Austria-Hungary knew a break-up was coming, even without war, and launched a massive military campaign as a last hurrah anyway. Could the United States similarly pick a fight with Russia or China or both in a fit of madness as it falls apart? Dark times ahead.

    This is why we lose
     
    True. Conservatives are outgunned intellectually, psychologically, organizationally, and financially by the left. The enthusiasm is definitely on the winning side and the losers don’t have the ability to change this dynamic even if you directly spell it out to them; many conservatives have for decades with next to no response from party leaders. Conservatives just aren’t psychologically equipped to win, and the nation as we know it will be wiped out in response. Even on the dissident right, you occasionally encounter a dogma-spouting libertarian who’ll tell you this all really started with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and fiat currency* and that all we have to do to fix things is somehow accomplish a vague thing in an unexplained manner. Not going to happen. Partition was the only shot and conservatives ignored it just as the whites of South Africa did. That group paid the price for their short-sightedness, and the middle-class whites of America will, too.

    This will be the ultimate proof, contra uncle Adolf, that whites (even Germans) are NOT the master race; they are weak-willed religionists obsessed with morality and adherence to ideology. That role, if it goes to any group at all, belongs to the Chinese with the Japanese and Koreans tied for a close second. Those groups aren’t moralistic, religious dogmatists as nearly all Westerners are, conservative and liberal alike. The Chinese adopt policies that work. Westerners adopt policies based on what makes them feel warm and fuzzy at that moment, even if it’s something that will obviously wreck the country in a few decades. In 2100, China will still be here and majority Chinese and technologically far more advanced than the West. What’s left of the West will be puzzling over what happened, with many remaining whites probably assuming the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 had something to do with it.

    "The Biden brutalization"

    That's why I'm sure Trump did whatever then democrats have accused him of doing, even if they are corrupt and have something to hide in Ukraine themselves (I'm sure they do). He's not stupid. Trump has a decent grasp of people, even if he's lacking on policy understanding. Biden will be his strongest opponent as I have always thought. Somebody better prepare those Trumpslide people for 2020. They're delusional. It's nuts to believe the right countered the left's insane Russia hysteria with it's own Qanon and Trumpslide delusion. This result has been obvious to me for years now, but every time I've brought it up I've been ignored. People just aren't cut out for democracy, I think. Not in the modern, complex world. All hail the conquering Chinese. Start learning Mandarin boys.

    *It's funny how Japan has a fiat currency and seems quite stable and a nice place to live. Many white Westerners are already trying to move there, perhaps anticipating a collapse of the United States and Western order. You see lots of those types on YouTube and Twitch these days. Now, suddenly anime and vacations to Japan are all the rage. Shouldn't the white left be staying here and enjoying the fruits of our greatest strength (TM)? Funny that.

    And, how will the Asian countries respond?

    There will be a large amount of freed up white human capital as formerly white countries are destroyed. Many will likely attempt to emigrate to remaining decent countries like China. Does China accept them? Does it only accept conservatives? Or does it just slam the door in their face?

    It makes sense to make use of the high human capital of the whites but at the same time, that’s the logic our elites currently use to justify mass Chinese and Indian immigration.

  182. @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders biggest problem is that he has no support among those 40 and older, and that's where the reliable age cohorts are, especially during caucuses and closed primaries.

    Looks like Corbyn did terribly.

    If blacks don't turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

    If blacks don’t turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

    Biden has Obama to thank for his position as the candidate most likely to successfully combine the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY and the GREEDY WHITE GEEZER STRATEGY and the GOVERNMENT WORKER STRATEGY. Biden will have a formidable bloc of voters with those three blocs, and other voters will be quick to fall in line and go with the guy they think can beat Trump.

    Obama will not undercut nor undermine Biden in any way. Obama will eat burgers on his new estate on the water on Martha’s Vineyard and he’ll read books and maybe eat some delicious potato salad made by the nice Methodist ladies at their lovely island spot.

    Warren and Buttigieg will wreck each other and Sanders won’t be able to bust through to a new level of support and the beautiful Black church ladies don’t much care for Warren nor Buttigieg nor Sanders anyhow.

    The big story of the Democrat Party presidential primary will be how quickly Biden wraps it up and how quickly the GREEN PARTY surges with supporters who refuse to vote for Biden or the Democrat Party ruling class. Biden could have the nomination wrapped up by March 3.

    The big story of the upcoming general election will be the rise of the new political party called WHITE CORE AMERICA.

    Trump has abandoned the European Christian ancestral core of the USA and those White Core American voters will repay the favor by abandoning Trump. Trump is a weak coward who wants to flood the USA with nation-wrecking mass legal immigration “in the largest numbers ever.” Trump refuses to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    Trump has completely capitulated to the globalizers and the financializers by crawling into bed with the transnationalist free traders on tariffs. The USA must have a tariff system that is somewhere between revenue raising and prohibitive and Trumpy is selling out on trade for a pile of frigging soybeans!

    The Republican Party and the Democrat Party must be destroyed!

    It ain’t that dramatic to talk of destroying the two-party tyranny attacking the USA, the USA just needs a coalitional reconfiguration like the Limey bastards just went through.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

    I hereby challenge Trump, Teddy Cruz, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton and Mitch McConnell to a 4 hour debate on American national identity, mass legal immigration, mass illegal immigration, monetary policy, health care policy, education policy, tax policy, multicultural mayhem, foreign policy, trade policy and any other damn thing.

    I’d rhetorically smash those politician three dollar whores like bugs!

    • Replies: @Prester John
    "The Republican Party and the Democrat Party must be destroyed!"

    Not necessarily "destroyed". Instead, we need a viable third party, if not multiple parties. The two party system is archaic.
  183. @Audacious Epigone
    The No Malarkey tour bus is a sop to them. Biden isn't trying to be everything to everyone. He's appealing to older white moderates who want something familiar while maintaining his strong black support.

    Ramblin’ Amblin’ Stumblin’ Bumblin’ Joe, had the DNC promoted his candidacy in 2016, would have beaten Trump then–and for the reasons you cite. Instead, they played the identity card. turning the Democrat Party into a predominantly homosexual, female, black/Hispanic party and nominated a woman who thought she was “entitled.” Bad move as it turns out. Like their president, Obama, they misread the electorate.

  184. @Sam Coulton
    The so-called "replacement of white people" has largely been the result of low white birth rates, not immigration. Whites would still be a majority (+75%) of this country if they maintained the birth rate they had in 1960, even with the immigration this country received.

    The low white birthrate is also what contributed to the election of "RINOS" and Democrats. The first measure of action is the impregnation of females, and when that's not happening repeatedly, the culture is inactive.

    Since Celler and Javitz opened the border in 1965, one and a half MILLION Democrat voters have been coming in every year.

    We have around 30 million illegals to add to the 60 million legal invaders.

    Yes, the jews have lowered our birthrates via attacks on the religious infrastructure that supported family formation, the destruction of jobs for white males due to affirmative action, globalist outsourcing of jobs, feminism to ruin our women, etc., but mass immigration is the weapon that has ruined our country forever.

  185. @Charles Pewitt

    If blacks don’t turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

     

    Biden has Obama to thank for his position as the candidate most likely to successfully combine the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY and the GREEDY WHITE GEEZER STRATEGY and the GOVERNMENT WORKER STRATEGY. Biden will have a formidable bloc of voters with those three blocs, and other voters will be quick to fall in line and go with the guy they think can beat Trump.

    Obama will not undercut nor undermine Biden in any way. Obama will eat burgers on his new estate on the water on Martha's Vineyard and he'll read books and maybe eat some delicious potato salad made by the nice Methodist ladies at their lovely island spot.

    Warren and Buttigieg will wreck each other and Sanders won't be able to bust through to a new level of support and the beautiful Black church ladies don't much care for Warren nor Buttigieg nor Sanders anyhow.

    The big story of the Democrat Party presidential primary will be how quickly Biden wraps it up and how quickly the GREEN PARTY surges with supporters who refuse to vote for Biden or the Democrat Party ruling class. Biden could have the nomination wrapped up by March 3.

    The big story of the upcoming general election will be the rise of the new political party called WHITE CORE AMERICA.

    Trump has abandoned the European Christian ancestral core of the USA and those White Core American voters will repay the favor by abandoning Trump. Trump is a weak coward who wants to flood the USA with nation-wrecking mass legal immigration "in the largest numbers ever." Trump refuses to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    Trump has completely capitulated to the globalizers and the financializers by crawling into bed with the transnationalist free traders on tariffs. The USA must have a tariff system that is somewhere between revenue raising and prohibitive and Trumpy is selling out on trade for a pile of frigging soybeans!

    The Republican Party and the Democrat Party must be destroyed!

    It ain't that dramatic to talk of destroying the two-party tyranny attacking the USA, the USA just needs a coalitional reconfiguration like the Limey bastards just went through.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

    I hereby challenge Trump, Teddy Cruz, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton and Mitch McConnell to a 4 hour debate on American national identity, mass legal immigration, mass illegal immigration, monetary policy, health care policy, education policy, tax policy, multicultural mayhem, foreign policy, trade policy and any other damn thing.

    I'd rhetorically smash those politician three dollar whores like bugs!

    “The Republican Party and the Democrat Party must be destroyed!”

    Not necessarily “destroyed”. Instead, we need a viable third party, if not multiple parties. The two party system is archaic.

  186. @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders biggest problem is that he has no support among those 40 and older, and that's where the reliable age cohorts are, especially during caucuses and closed primaries.

    Looks like Corbyn did terribly.

    If blacks don't turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

    If blacks don’t turn on Biden after Iowa and New Hampshire, they will be with him through the entire primary season, no matter what he says or does.

    Beautiful Black church ladies with their beautiful and beefy upper arms and nice handbags don’t give a damn what CRAZY ASS CRACKERS in Iowa or New Hampshire do in their crazy ass caucus or primary.

  187. What did the state by state polls show before the 2016 election? If I remember correctly a landslide for Clinton. I’m no fan of Trump. I voted for a third party candidate in the last election. But I will be casting my vote for Trump in 2020, and not because my opinion of him has improved. The last three years have revealed how frightening the Democrats and the media are- far worse than I ever imagined. I don’t believe I’m alone in this assessment.

    • Agree: AnonFromTN
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Maybe I'll put together a map of 2016 by state polls leading up to the election. The national polls were pretty close--the RCP average had Clinton winning by 3.X and she ended up winning by 2. The polls got WI, MI, and PA wrong. Off the top of my head I don't recall what else they missed. Florida was close.
  188. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    I thought I would ask you, “What have you been smoking, Sam?” But a second reading of your post compels me to ask “When did you have your frontal lobotomy?” And wasn’t it at the Democratic Progressive Loony Sciences Hospital?

  189. Epigone:

    Part of it is that Trump is a known quantity. Barring a market collapse, he’s at his floor. Though Biden and Sanders are familiar to low-information voters, they’ve not been fully scrutinized, so both are likely to come down upon getting the nomination if either does.

    You have written an article, followed by numerous commenters who join you in ignoring the History of America and its citizens since November 22, 1963.

    The so-called election is nothing more than a poorly prepared Hollywood fantasy movie.

    America is not a sovereign nation. The elections are just Theater. Democraps, Republicants, Red States, Blue States, Huh? Not one picture of a Christmas Tree, or of Proud Americans holding good jobs, of our cities prosperous, of our Liberty – intact.

    Is this Braindead piece of shit by ‘Epigone’ a sign of things to come on this so-called ‘Alternate Media’ website?

    Huh? Ms. Pocahontis, vs Biden (who with his son has looted the Ukraine), vs. Sanders, the ‘socialist’ who votes for all military appropriations, and serves a Foreign Power, vs. Casino Trump; do I need a verb?

    This article would fit on MSNBC, CNN, or in The New York Times, Wasshington Post, FOX, etc.

    Are there none, who dare Love Their Country, and are willing to at least understand that our Yellow Brick Road to Freedom lies in a Revolutionary Struggle to Restore Our Republic, that was assassinated, along with our Last Constitutional President, John F. Kennedy, in a Zionist MOSSAD/CIA Coup D’etat – hail of bullets on November 22, 1963?

    Has 9/11, and the attack on the Liberty been forgotten? Notice: there was not a mention of unperson Tulsi Gabbard. For some reason they do not trust her. She must have refused an implant.

    Epigone (whoever she is?) writes about elections that do not exist, candidates that do not exist, an Independent America that is just a Dream, a Distant memory. This article is standard Mainstream Media Crap. Why is it necessary for the/its author to hide her identity? Ms. Maddow; is this you?

    We might as well discuss Professional Wrestling. Epigone, Be Gone!

    Conclusion:

    America is not a Sovereign Nation. We Americans are not Free. We are slaves. We will throw off our chains and regain our Honor, as soon as we realize:

    Freedom is not Free! We must Pay for It!

    Durruti – for the Anarchist Collective

    • Agree: Saggy
  190. @Sam Coulton
    Coming from the individual whose every post concerns Jews or the deification of Hitler, that's rich.

    Obsessively anti-semitic schizophreniac retards are also found behind the wheel in the wreckage that is the right wing.

    Are not Arabs Semites? And others throughout the world? Instead o Anti-Semite, should be anti Arab? For those who know, where does the word ‘Semite’ comes from? I about had it with the ‘anti-Semite’ accusation. Probably you meant anti-Kazhar!

    • Replies: @Curmudgeon

    For those who know, where does the word ‘Semite’ comes from?
     
    Semitic is a language group that includes Aramaic, Arabic, and Hebrew.
    https://www.mustgo.com/worldlanguages/semitic-branch/

    It has nothing to do with religion.
  191. @houston 1992
    hmm
    1972: Muskie would have been stronger than McGovern,
    in 1980 perhaps Teddy Kennedy would have been stronger than Carter,
    1984: Gary Hart > Fritz Mondale
    1988: Sam Nunn or Lloyd Bentsen >> Dukakis
    2016: Sanders with his old immigration realism >> Hillary

    Republican nominees
    1960 Gov Rockefeller/ Cabot Lodge > Nixon
    1976: Reagan >> Ford
    1988, 1992 Dole> Bush 41
    2008 : Pierre Delecto >> John McCain
    2012: anyone but Pierre Delecto > Pierrre Delecto

    You seem to be ignoring the massive vote fraud in Illinois, particularly Chicago, where more votes were cast than there were voters, including lots of the dead ones showing up to vote for Kennedy. Nixon did the honorable thing, not the right thing, by accepting the fraudulent result that would have given him the election.

    • Replies: @Flip
    Nixon would still have lost in the Electoral College if he had won Illinois and its 27 votes.


    John F. Kennedy
    Democratic
    303

    Richard M. Nixon
    Republican
    219

    Harry F. Byrd
    Democratic
    15
  192. “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” Joseph Stalin

    Who’s Afraid of an Open Debate? The Truth About the Commission on Presidential Debates

    The Commission on Presidential Debates is a private corporation headed by the former chairmen of the Republican and Democratic parties. The CPD is a duopoly which allows the major party candidates to draft secret agreements about debate arrangements including moderators, debate format and even participants.

    The 2012 Debates – Memorandum of Understanding Between the Obama and Romney Campaigns

    https://publicintelligence.net/obama-romney-debate-mou/

  193. @in the middle
    Are not Arabs Semites? And others throughout the world? Instead o Anti-Semite, should be anti Arab? For those who know, where does the word 'Semite' comes from? I about had it with the 'anti-Semite' accusation. Probably you meant anti-Kazhar!

    For those who know, where does the word ‘Semite’ comes from?

    Semitic is a language group that includes Aramaic, Arabic, and Hebrew.
    https://www.mustgo.com/worldlanguages/semitic-branch/

    It has nothing to do with religion.

  194. @Corvinus
    "Can you just go away, Corfagus? You’re such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor–and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn’t have enough to keep you satisfied–hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn’t want you here at all."

    I guess the schoolmarm on this fine blog let this comment which contains "dehumanizing language" slide. So much for standards...

    That’s vulgar and puerile, but it’s not quite dehumanizing. Profane, but not excessively so–at least not yet.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "That’s vulgar and puerile, but it’s not quite dehumanizing."

    As I correctly stated, so much for standards. Pray tell, would your wife label it as dehumanizing if someone would used "vulgar and puerile" terms directed at her? Furthermore, how would you address the subject in person if he/she would make similar comments?

    I'm a big boy, I can handle such talk. But given the commenter's history--1 comment--it is more than likely a regular on your fine blog trying to get their shot in, rather than discuss topics with style and substance.
  195. @Audacious Epigone
    the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality

    Even taking your general sentiments into account, is "benign" really the word you intended to use there? Maybe "overblown" or "exaggerated", but benign? It sounds psychopathic.

    Can you make a plausible case for “overblown” or “exaggerated”?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Sure. People (of all colors) are at greater risk driving down the highway than they are from black criminality.

    I'm not making that apples-to-oranges argument myself, but there's a reasonable case for it. It's difficult, in contrast, to argue that criminality is "benign".
  196. @prime noticer
    "That’s probably the only scenario in which a break-up of the US is likely."

    i've discussed this a few times over the years on other threads, with similar conclusions. how could the thing called the United States end? is there any way for us to get out from under it? it would have to be destroyed by some cataclysmic event. nothing short of total destruction would do it, because there's too much to gain for the elites by keeping some semblance of the United States version 2.0 functional, and in control of a large portion of the planet.

    scenarios like these are the only way we don't head down the inexorable path we're on, where the US becomes a doomsday machine with one goal, to grind european people into dust. because that's where it's heading. we are going to be tax mules and work slaves under this frankenstein empire, a resource to be allocated, not free willed humans allowed to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.

    such a scenario has been shown in movies like The Postman, The Stand, and other sci fi. it really would take something like that. an asteroid strike, a lethal global virus, or some some global military conflict with multiple forces aligned against the US. which is the most likely scenario by a mile, since that's how lots of global scale wars have occurred for 500 years or more - indeed, this was how the US was created in the first place. there was a civil war, in one of England's colonies, and the first thing England's main enemy did, was sign an agreement with the rebels. France created the US, effectively. no outside enemy to help the rebels, no United States. England crushes the rebellion.

    the current appearance of a very stable continent politically is sort of an illusion. it can change in less than a year, like tectonic plates being steady for millenia, then shifting in a day, creating a magnitude 10 earthquake.

    The softest landing I’m able to imagine is a currency crisis grinds the debt-fueled system to a halt. States look to get away from the federal government to avoid being left holding the bag. This manifests itself in gubernatorial elections where candidates run on peacefully leaving the union.

  197. Smartmatic voting machines are used in 16 states and the company is owned by Soros, so the polls are meaningless and voting machines can be programed to give the desired results, elections for POTUS are a joke, and as usual the zionists who control the ZUS government and control both the demonrats and the republicons win every time.

    • Replies: @Sin City Milla
    I live in a large Southern city. Republicans had to sue to stop the local county clerk, a Dem, from connecting the county's voting machines to the internet, which would have been a violation of state law. After several California counties 'discovered' boxes of votes which reversed close races in 2016, I have zero confidence that the elections in 2020 will be fair or reliable. Not even purple fingers can fix the fraud that will be unleashed.
  198. @dfordoom

    Forming new States within the USA, or if absolutely necessary trying to peacefully negotiate a secession from the country, would both be vastly preferable to mass violence.
     
    How many people seriously want to secede? My guess is that among Unz Review readers it's about 95% and among the general population it's probably less than 1%. Even among whites it's unlikely to be much more than 1%.

    You have to ask yourself how many white liberals will want secession? The answer is - none. How many politically uninvolved whites will want secession? The answer is - none. How many mainstream conservatives/mainstream Republicans will want secession? In round numbers - none. How many white Christians will want secession? Among mainline Protestants and among Catholics, none. Among Evangelicals? None. They want the Empire.

    How many whites with valuable skills (engineers, doctors, etc) will want secession? Close to none.

    How many white women will seriously want secession? My guess is, a lot fewer than 1%.

    So the odds are you'll end up with a white ethnostate with roughly the population of New Zealand, say three million people (about three-quarters of that population being male). With no chance of economic survival since it will immediately be hit by sanctions and all its financial assets will be frozen.

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.

    Polling tends to find between 20%-35% of the population amenable to the idea. It’s definitely much higher than 1%. In California, polling showed support for Calexit at around 20%. That was three years ago.

    There is a clear generational angle to it–young people are much more open to the idea than older people are.

    The idea that support for political dissolution indicates support for a white ethnostate is a non sequitur. The first secessionist movement in the US was in Massachusetts for what are conventionally considered leftwing reasons.

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt

    The idea that support for political dissolution indicates support for a white ethnostate is a non sequitur. The first secessionist movement in the US was in Massachusetts for what are conventionally considered leftwing reasons.

     

    The Hartford(Connecticut) Convention in 1814 and 1815 was a state sectional and regional New England grouping of states that were musing about going their own way because of displeasure with the War of 1812 and other reasons.

    I'm now thinking about SOVEREIGN DEBT SECESSIONISM as a way to get the votes of Whites born after 1965. It is simple: secede from all the government debt and go to a new currency called the Washington/Jackson dollar.

    The idea is to get people thinking about sectional and regional secessionism by talking about walking away from government debt at all levels of government.

    The monetary extremism now kicked back into high gear by Fed Chair Powell signals that something wicked this way comes for the ruling class, and I want to do everything possible to push the current ruling class out of power.

    The horrible ruling class has pushed this damn disgusting line that America "is just an idea." I say there is a real America and there is a real English Protestant or European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    I would love to tell an audience that the government debt ain't real but that there is a real ancestral core to the USA and that ancestral core is European Christian.

    DEBT REPUDIATION NOW!

    DEBT JUBILEE NOW!

    SOVEREIGN DEBT SECESSIONISM NOW!
    , @dfordoom

    Polling tends to find between 20%-35% of the population amenable to the idea. It’s definitely much higher than 1%. In California, polling showed support for Calexit at around 20%. That was three years ago.
     
    Then you explain to people what the costs are likely to be and what the full ramifications will be, and watch that support plummet to around 1%. Most people have never given any serious thought to the actual implications of secession.
  199. In 2016 polls predicted that cackling hyena wins. We know how reliable that prediction was. Is there any reason to believe that these predictions are any better?

    So far Dems do their level best to help Trump reelection. Their impeachment circus, which boils down to “Biden is corrupt, so let’s impeach Trump” is doing wonders to bury Dems.

    • Replies: @Marshall Lentini
    A Trump reelection would be the best thing for the establishment. Four more years of posturing and planning til their own day of the rope. Which will only come sooner if he doesn't win.
  200. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    I don't know why people are surprised.

    Trump in reality did almost nothing to stop the seismic demographic shift going on. He also cucked and refused to make the GOP the white party. Non whites don't vote Republican.

    Simple math dictates the GOP is running out of time.

    Somehow this math does not compute with GOP people or Boomers. I have explained this so many times to people, but they always just give me a blank stare. They short circuit to avoid the truth, and mumble something like "well we need to increase our poc outreach programs"...

    And btw - people of colour would vote for the GOP MORE if it was unequivocally the white folks' party, just saying. They hate weak white cucks like the GOP.

    US blacks are not going to vote for the party of the family-oriented, gainfully-employed, law-abiding American white majority- ever. You must live in the Canadian Great White North far away from the cities of the American black population’s post-WWII social dysfunction.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    You don't have to get a majority of blacks to do a lot of damage to the Democrats. If Trump got 20% (and I am not predicting) then it would be a Trump blowout in the Electoral College.
    , @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    I never said a majority of blacks, or even a quarter of blacks, would vote for a pro white party.

    However, they, as well as Latinos and asians, would respect a pro white party much more than they respect the current Zionist, billionaire globalist Republican party, who cut social services for the prole whites who think the Republicans are the white party.

    Most non whites think the Republicans are a scam, and they're right. If there was an unapologetically white party, you would be surprised at how many POC would tag along with the strong horse. I'm not saying they should be pandered to at all. But a number (maybe not a majority) would come along for the ride.
  201. @Daniel Rich

    Polling modestly understated Trump’s performance in 2016...
     
    I remember one poll predicting a 98% victory for none other than HRC [against Trump's meager 2%]

    Color me stupid, but that ain't 'modestly understated.'

    You’re talking about outcome odds, not polls per se, but the point is well taken.

    Polls had Clinton winning Michigan by 6, Wisconsin by 3, and Pennsylvania by 2. The upper Midwest was the difference. The national polls were pretty accurate–they had Clinton winning by 3.5 and she ended up winning by 2.

  202. “Leave a Reply – Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm. Racial slurs, dehumanizing language, personal identifying language, spamming, advocating illegal activity, or excessive profanity will not be approved. Blah blah blah.
    Reread your Mcluhan. Nothing posted here makes the slightest difference…….just vapid ephemeral political porn for the bored. The content is not the message, so why bother with the censorship stuff?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    A proper decorum is its own reward.

    Also, some quite influential people read this. We want them to be able to share it with other influential people.
  203. I sometimes tire of defending what might be considered ‘black positioning”. In fact, I have had enough black experiences to become dismayed. But I was taught, two wrongs don’t make a right. And as I have a conscience cannot maybe will not bend truth to suit political advantage. Despite the negative consequence to myself.

    Blacks band together for rather obvious reasons. I don’t think there’;s a need to wrangle on about that history, most know it well enough.

    This president did not win election because of a spike in crimes by blacks. Though admittedly, the turmoil over the shooting of unarmed blacks by police mattered and the responses that resulted in several officers being killed were high mileage news stories. The truth is that the police while having a very tough job at times, are more than relatively safe from harm.

    The key issues

    immigration
    foreign policy, ie. regime change
    the economy: employment, manufacturing, trade
    whiteness pressure did play a role as it almost always does but the backdrop of social somersaults on normalcy was a much larger factor in my view

    This election as long as there are no major upheavels, I don’t think there will be much damage from the democratic ploy of impeachment, most likely it will backfire as it well should, the current president stands in good stead.

    I don’t think there is anyone to blame for low north rates among whites, aside from whites. No one is forcing whites to stop having children. Speaking of whuch my condolences to the passing of Danny Aiello.

    And anyone who thinks that immigration, isn’t a contributor to the demographic shift is simply not paying attention in my view. And worse, that immigration is the diversity that matters to US citizenship as a culture and national ethos not skin color. Skin color is the easy ruse and distraction from the importation of people who arrive and for whom we start catering to their wants:

    language, religious practices, cultural ethos and activities, re-imagined histories of the US as theives and marauders — it is easy to take these issues out on blacks. But blacks did not import millions of Irish, Germans, Italians, Greeks, and now Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese and latinos. And the latino gamesmanship has been going on since before Spain gave up Mexico and excellerated when Pres. Grant’s enfranchisement of blacks was stifled, found solace in importing and improving relations with Mexico, afterall, he had been part of that war and knew some Mexicans he was fond of. Some solace. And the Cubans have been playing that latin card under the guise of communist aggression/oppression for all its worth and others have caught on — and even this president has played right into their hands —

    It;s hard to buy the white intelligentsia card when whotes have been importing millions of very low intelligent people from across the planet and most of them have been white. And it simply boggles the mind why if education mattered we as a country would literally refuse to educate some 4 million freed slaves — and then wonder about why said people seem uneducated

    — it just wreaks of the deepest and worst hypocrisies one can dredge up from our history. Since the record on welfare is clear regarding blacks and one has to reject the canard printed in a recent Atlantic Magazine how blacks were uplifted by New Deal policies when in fact, blacks were shunted to the back of the line and in many cases absolutely denied access to the same.

    Litsening to the whites in Congress discuss impeachment was hardly a boon to well thought argument and critical thought, muchless simple legal grasp of the issues — which given how many are supposed lawyers and business people is a more than surprising. Law makers don’t the difference between legal standard and personal taste would be funny if not for what it speaks about the future or the past.

    Even now faced with a cold hard reality that blacks have crossed the color line repeatedly, many here continue their diatribe about whites as some holder of ethics, but when facing even recent history, from Vietnam era to this day the list of issues advocated by whites has shredded ethics as an ethos and as practice. I watched Richard Jewel last night and its a devastating commentary about one of the most respected law enforcement organizations we have. But then that commentray isn’t new. Most of just pretend that our law enforcement agencies are nothing but clean cut whites with no capabilities hedged in by “truth justice and the american way”. When in fact most of law enforcement that is hemmed by those ethics actually coddle and protect those who are not or even make mistakes, unless some extreme event occurs – power – has outweighed ethics, regardless of skin color. We are simply so afraid that if hold the system to account the whole thing ill fall apart.

    As i have to face the issues regarding my accident, I am also faced with stark terms with why I simply bail out of this time of year. It’s hard to celebrate either the gift of a meal or the birth of Christ knowing that people I labored with and for quite successfully, sought to destroy not only my ability to work, but my very existence as a human being —- “good will toward men” is just more hypocrisy than I can bare. Laughing And I am certainly not alone in that. I chagrin that blacks are not supportive republicans or conservatives despite having many of the same ethics on key issues. If this president decides as we should have ages ago, to brake with the old tired molds of identity politics, then

    “bully for him”

    And i going to say this, if in fact whites are the better humans — their mindset on action and ethics should reflect as much. If the innate character by genes is a better human — superior than by said truth of the advance that should be in demonstration — but if one is going to hold as model a practice the constant double standard — then we shouldn’t be at all surprised when the mexican help sleeps with our spouse, has a child and anchor baby’s the same, not only to citizenship, but the family’s treasure chest as well.

    As for me, I will deal with the black or white criminal as of greater value if they are citizens whose parents were citizens and obtained the same legally.

    Immigration and the economy should trump the politics of color. And by the way, I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals. Making that a national call to vote for president Trump may gain votes, but at the end of the day we are still left with the Frank getting an operation so he can compete against Nadia Comaneci – and blacks didn’t come up with that.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting

    I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals.
     
    I look forward to one or more of our hosts having fun with that number.

    If I had to guess (based on personal experience) it would be closer to 50% if petty theft and minor cons are included. If accessories after the fact (by refusing to co-operate with police investigations) is included the number is probably in the 80% range (100% in many neighborhoods).
    , @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Immigration and the economy should trump the politics of color
     
    And yet they obviously don't. Blacks (the ones who have jobs anyway) are even more susceptible to displacement from the jobs market by low-skill immigration than whites, and at least as vulnerable to all the other ruinous effects of population churn, and yet they are the most pro-immigration voting block there is. Why? Because immigration hurts whites, and whites are their primary ethnic enemies. The white party is (supposedly, ignoring that they've done a worse than terrible job at it) anti immigration, the black party is pro immigration, hence blacks are pro immigration. Identity > economics, every time. To pretend otherwise is just willful stupidity.

    And by the way, I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals.
     
    Uninformed conjecture, and also presented in bad faith. Progs always do this; less than X in 100 immigrants do Y [provably, though the actual number must be larger], X is a small number, therefore you're just a bigoted nazi who's imagining the disastrous consequences of Y!

    I'm sure a lot less than half of a quarter of 1% of all Germans have ever been in a u-boat, such a tiny number could never pose a risk to trans-atlantic shipping! Whatever the percentage is, how big of a problem is criminality in majority black areas basically everywhere on earth? Disastrously huge. And criminality is just one measure of chronic black dysfunction.
  204. @Audacious Epigone
    That's vulgar and puerile, but it's not quite dehumanizing. Profane, but not excessively so--at least not yet.

    “That’s vulgar and puerile, but it’s not quite dehumanizing.”

    As I correctly stated, so much for standards. Pray tell, would your wife label it as dehumanizing if someone would used “vulgar and puerile” terms directed at her? Furthermore, how would you address the subject in person if he/she would make similar comments?

    I’m a big boy, I can handle such talk. But given the commenter’s history–1 comment–it is more than likely a regular on your fine blog trying to get their shot in, rather than discuss topics with style and substance.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Oh come on, you know we tolerate a lower level of civility here than I would personally prefer. That's not anything new. There's a balance, sir, that must be struck. Stop tormenting me!
  205. “US blacks are not going to vote for the party of the family-oriented, gainfully-employed, law-abiding American white majority- ever. ”

    Nonsense.

    And by the way most blacks are law abiding as much as whites. I will say from experience whites are utterly childish about the reasons and mechanisms they go about making sure gainfully employed blacks are not.

    • Replies: @By-tor
    It would have nothing to do with four centuries of North American whites' experiences with black culture, black ghetto-dialect language, black familial dysfunction, blacks' tendency for public boisterousness, blacks' general rudeness by those employed in the services sector, blacks' tardiness at work and blacks' overwhelming and never-ending dependence on government largess and legislated favoritism now would it?
  206. @Truthbetold
    What did the state by state polls show before the 2016 election? If I remember correctly a landslide for Clinton. I'm no fan of Trump. I voted for a third party candidate in the last election. But I will be casting my vote for Trump in 2020, and not because my opinion of him has improved. The last three years have revealed how frightening the Democrats and the media are- far worse than I ever imagined. I don't believe I'm alone in this assessment.

    Maybe I’ll put together a map of 2016 by state polls leading up to the election. The national polls were pretty close–the RCP average had Clinton winning by 3.X and she ended up winning by 2. The polls got WI, MI, and PA wrong. Off the top of my head I don’t recall what else they missed. Florida was close.

    • Replies: @A123
    The rarely told, but not particularly secret, problems with polling are in the assumptions driving "Likely Voters [LV]". Those assumptions vary by polling firm.

    The polls were inaccurate largely because:

    -- Unlikely Voters turned out for Trump
    -- Likely Voters (mostly black) did not turn out for Hillary


    The national polls were pretty close–the RCP average
     
    Rasmussen seems to have found decent assumptions for handling "Likely Voters", which benefited the Real Clear Politics [RCP] average. Take them out and the collection of left-leaning firms performed worse.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Gman
    IIRC

    The reason why Nate Silver was less bullish on Hillary in the Midwest than Obama in 2012 is that there were a larger number of undecideds. So in other words Obama - Romney at 49-46 is safer for Dems than Clinton - Trump 44 - 41 even though both polls are Dems +3

    Also one reason why I thought Trump could win WI and PA (I bet R on those states in 2016 on predictit) is that Midwest states that Obama won twice (Iowa and Ohio) were seen as solid Red and dem weakness was near the state line
  207. @WJ
    HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard.

    Regarding Ukraine - you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won't get behind. You damage your credibility when you advocate for such silliness.

    The same with lies - you aren't so naive to think that BO didn't lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C'mon.

    Economics. BO had eight years of basically zero interest rates while DJT had eight interest rate hikes in his first two years.

    As usual, it's a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land.

    “HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard.”

    And yet he has not delivered on building a wall or deporting those illegals.

    “Regarding Ukraine – you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won’t get behind.”

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven’t been paying attention.

    Privately, a number are on board. Publicly, they will deny it.

    “The same with lies – you aren’t so naive to think that BO didn’t lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C’mon.”

    That is a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made those assertions.

    “As usual, it’s a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land.”

    We assume that Biden will get the nomination. And, its worser vs. worse.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven’t been paying attention.

    Actually, we have been paying attention. Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover. Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented.

    , @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven’t been paying attention.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I've been paying attention. You haven't.
    The Democrats have nothing. No Quid Pro Quo. No high crimes and misdemeanors.

    If they send this to the Senate Schiff will no longer be able to manipulate the process and ALL the Democrat dirt in Ukraine (remember they spent $5 Billion spreading love their via Nulan, Kerry, McStain et al) will come out. Barrack Obama will be destroyed. Joe Biden will be destroyed. Many other career and legacies will be destroyed (senior Intelligence, Holder and HRC-this time, she won't get a free pass).
    Trump is holding very strong cards.
    Don't mistake Pelosi's drunken bluster at a press conference for reality. The Democrat's are sitting in a world of hurt. The Republicans are not. They have been cleaning house for years. Eric Cantor, gone. Paul Ryan, gone. McStain 'passed' away. Bush Sr. 'passed' away. A long list of Rino's have been sent packing while Dem's have doubled down.
    Don't forget, Clapper PUBLICLY pointed the finger at Barry O on network television!

    Trump has 2020 in the bag.
    The only question is, will he actually use his mandate to restore America or will it be more BS and Jew pandering.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Who is worser and who is worse in your configuration?
  208. @Jim bob Lassiter
    Can you make a plausible case for "overblown" or "exaggerated"?

    Sure. People (of all colors) are at greater risk driving down the highway than they are from black criminality.

    I’m not making that apples-to-oranges argument myself, but there’s a reasonable case for it. It’s difficult, in contrast, to argue that criminality is “benign”.

    • Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter
    Ok. Then (as a white person) minimize high risk highway personal transportation and use the subway most anywhere it's available in the US.
    , @Sin City Milla
    Road accidents are almost all reported. But only a portion of black crime is reported. We'll never know how much because most victims believe it would be a waste of time since nothing would be done. The true scale of black crime is probably far greater than official statistics.
  209. @Audacious Epigone
    Polling tends to find between 20%-35% of the population amenable to the idea. It's definitely much higher than 1%. In California, polling showed support for Calexit at around 20%. That was three years ago.

    There is a clear generational angle to it--young people are much more open to the idea than older people are.

    The idea that support for political dissolution indicates support for a white ethnostate is a non sequitur. The first secessionist movement in the US was in Massachusetts for what are conventionally considered leftwing reasons.

    The idea that support for political dissolution indicates support for a white ethnostate is a non sequitur. The first secessionist movement in the US was in Massachusetts for what are conventionally considered leftwing reasons.

    The Hartford(Connecticut) Convention in 1814 and 1815 was a state sectional and regional New England grouping of states that were musing about going their own way because of displeasure with the War of 1812 and other reasons.

    I’m now thinking about SOVEREIGN DEBT SECESSIONISM as a way to get the votes of Whites born after 1965. It is simple: secede from all the government debt and go to a new currency called the Washington/Jackson dollar.

    The idea is to get people thinking about sectional and regional secessionism by talking about walking away from government debt at all levels of government.

    The monetary extremism now kicked back into high gear by Fed Chair Powell signals that something wicked this way comes for the ruling class, and I want to do everything possible to push the current ruling class out of power.

    The horrible ruling class has pushed this damn disgusting line that America “is just an idea.” I say there is a real America and there is a real English Protestant or European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    I would love to tell an audience that the government debt ain’t real but that there is a real ancestral core to the USA and that ancestral core is European Christian.

    DEBT REPUDIATION NOW!

    DEBT JUBILEE NOW!

    SOVEREIGN DEBT SECESSIONISM NOW!

  210. @Corvinus
    "That’s vulgar and puerile, but it’s not quite dehumanizing."

    As I correctly stated, so much for standards. Pray tell, would your wife label it as dehumanizing if someone would used "vulgar and puerile" terms directed at her? Furthermore, how would you address the subject in person if he/she would make similar comments?

    I'm a big boy, I can handle such talk. But given the commenter's history--1 comment--it is more than likely a regular on your fine blog trying to get their shot in, rather than discuss topics with style and substance.

    Oh come on, you know we tolerate a lower level of civility here than I would personally prefer. That’s not anything new. There’s a balance, sir, that must be struck. Stop tormenting me!

    • Agree: Agent76
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Oh come on, you know we tolerate a lower level of civility here than I would personally prefer. That’s not anything new. There’s a balance, sir, that must be struck. Stop tormenting me!"

    Your sarcasm is duly noted, as well as your refusal to respond to two very simple questions.

  211. @Kim
    The world is now running on the fumes of the fossil fuels age. When the global debt bubble that is holding up demand pops, everything will change forever. The not-too-distant future is mass death. What are the demographics of global economic collapse?

    “What are the demographics of global economic collapse?”

    We shall see.

  212. @By-tor
    US blacks are not going to vote for the party of the family-oriented, gainfully-employed, law-abiding American white majority- ever. You must live in the Canadian Great White North far away from the cities of the American black population's post-WWII social dysfunction.

    You don’t have to get a majority of blacks to do a lot of damage to the Democrats. If Trump got 20% (and I am not predicting) then it would be a Trump blowout in the Electoral College.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    It would sure help. But it won’t happen (prediction).
  213. Talking about Biden…
    Biden info… Son married Jewish girl, daughter married Jewish
    man…
    https://forward.com/schmooze/426918/who-is-joe-bidens-new-jewish-daughter-in-law-melissa-cohen/

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    That fact is a sort of Rorschach test. Some see it and think, "See, Jews have their hooks in everyone!" Others (myself included) see it as evidence that Jewishness as a distinct identity in the US is evaporating among the secular elite and that what we think of Jewishness in a generation or two will be men with distinctive beards and hats, an urban version of the Amish.
  214. Let me see….should I vote for the red [ Trump] commies, or the blue [anti-Trump] commies?

    Hmm, quite choice, I’ll admit- too much for me to handle all in one go. I’ll need to seriously think on that for quite a while, it makes my brain hurt. 🤔

    “If voting made a difference, it would be illegal.” Emma Goldman

    “Regards” onebornfree

    • Agree: Desert Fox
  215. @Corvinus
    "HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard."

    And yet he has not delivered on building a wall or deporting those illegals.

    "Regarding Ukraine – you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won’t get behind."

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven't been paying attention.

    Privately, a number are on board. Publicly, they will deny it.

    "The same with lies – you aren’t so naive to think that BO didn’t lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C’mon."

    That is a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made those assertions.

    "As usual, it’s a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land."

    We assume that Biden will get the nomination. And, its worser vs. worse.

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven’t been paying attention.

    Actually, we have been paying attention. Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover. Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Actually, we have been paying attention."

    Not to the immutable facts.

    "Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover."

    "Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented."

    You mean like the rule of law? Presidents prior to Trump did not engage in his particular action–using underlings through backchannels to get information about political rivals. Moreover, if it is so “above board”, i.e. commonplace, why stonewall the investigation? Why would a plethora of witnesses who are privy to past presidential behavior and the law testify in detail how Trump’s conduct is beyond the pale? And, why are Trump senior aides further restricting the number of administration officials allowed to listen to the President’s phone calls with foreign leaders? How is that transparent?

    And GOP interest in listening to the CIA began and ended—apparently—with Carter Page. The same Page investigated by the FBI for being a Russian spy BEFORE Trump announced a presidential run because he gave info to Russian spies, admitted to it, and called himself a “Kremlin adviser”.

    Indeed, the dossier perfectly replicated at least two conversations Page secretly had with Kremlin officials and lied about on national TV when he returned to the United States. The dossier’s replication of those conversations was in fact one of its best indicia of reliability. The FBI literally investigated Page as a possible Russian agent just 2 years before the presidential campaign began.

    So based on the testimonial and documentary evidence, it’s clear that Trump sought to solicit bribes from Poroshenko before he even knew that Zelensky would be president and he’d try to solicit bribes from him instead.

    The fact of the matter is that the transcript is prima facie quid pro quo. Zelensky now states blocking aid was wrong. The Ukrainians knew that the aid was being held up on the day of that call. A Ukrainian prosecutor general started the investigation of Biden on Guiliani’s demand in April 2019 at the latest. And a plethora of witnesses confirm the prima facie quid pro quo.

    Here is the time line.
    January: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    February: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    March: Rudy gets Biden dirt to Solomon via Lutsenko.
    April: Lutsenko recants the Biden dirt he gave Solomon.

    It wasn’t about Trump trying to stamp out ALL corruption in the Ukraine, it was about trying to get information about a potential political opponent.

    Democrats know BRIBERY fits these facts perfectly, as they put the elements of soliciting a bribe (per the federal criminal statute for bribery) at the very beginning of the abuse of power article. However, when Republicans complain they have no idea what conduct is being described, they know full well it is BRIBERY, but the Democrats dare not say it repeatedly and openly because they want to avoid the word in an election year.

    On top of it all, you have Governor Mike Huckabee who is trying to move the Overton Window through this tweet–I’ll be on @seanhannity 2nite @FoxNews at 9pm ET and will explain how @realDonaldTrump will be eligible for a 3rd term due to the illegal attempts by Comey, Dems, and media, et al attempting to oust him as @POTUS so that’s why I was named to head up the 2024 re-election.

    So Huckabee already supports a third term; is “testing the waters” using Overton-Window theory; or is “drafting” off the unconstitutional, unpatriotic rhetoric of actual radicals to get attention.

    Remember, IG Michael Horowtiz: “We did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that indicated political bias or improper motivation influencing his decision to open the investigation.”

    Yet, Bill Barr is having a conniption fit, despite saying prior to the report that he would accept its findings regardless. LOL.
  216. Trump and Biden do not respect our rights so they deserve neither our respect or our votes.

  217. Smartmatic voting machines are used in 16 states and the company is owned by Soros and these machines can be programmed to give the results that the zionists want and not only that but the Diebold voting machines can also be programmed to give the desired results.

    Elections for Potus are a joke and are between two zionist controlled puppets!

    • Agree: Republic, Durruti
  218. Trump wins if that’s the way Israel wants it. Why? the Rothschild’s own Israel, and Satan owns the Rothschilds. Who gives a crap about polls? Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahah!

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Why would Israel have preferred Obama over McCain?
  219. @EliteCommInc.
    I sometimes tire of defending what might be considered 'black positioning". In fact, I have had enough black experiences to become dismayed. But I was taught, two wrongs don't make a right. And as I have a conscience cannot maybe will not bend truth to suit political advantage. Despite the negative consequence to myself.

    Blacks band together for rather obvious reasons. I don't think there';s a need to wrangle on about that history, most know it well enough.


    This president did not win election because of a spike in crimes by blacks. Though admittedly, the turmoil over the shooting of unarmed blacks by police mattered and the responses that resulted in several officers being killed were high mileage news stories. The truth is that the police while having a very tough job at times, are more than relatively safe from harm.

    The key issues

    immigration
    foreign policy, ie. regime change
    the economy: employment, manufacturing, trade
    whiteness pressure did play a role as it almost always does but the backdrop of social somersaults on normalcy was a much larger factor in my view

    This election as long as there are no major upheavels, I don't think there will be much damage from the democratic ploy of impeachment, most likely it will backfire as it well should, the current president stands in good stead.


    I don't think there is anyone to blame for low north rates among whites, aside from whites. No one is forcing whites to stop having children. Speaking of whuch my condolences to the passing of Danny Aiello.

    And anyone who thinks that immigration, isn't a contributor to the demographic shift is simply not paying attention in my view. And worse, that immigration is the diversity that matters to US citizenship as a culture and national ethos not skin color. Skin color is the easy ruse and distraction from the importation of people who arrive and for whom we start catering to their wants:

    language, religious practices, cultural ethos and activities, re-imagined histories of the US as theives and marauders --- it is easy to take these issues out on blacks. But blacks did not import millions of Irish, Germans, Italians, Greeks, and now Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese and latinos. And the latino gamesmanship has been going on since before Spain gave up Mexico and excellerated when Pres. Grant's enfranchisement of blacks was stifled, found solace in importing and improving relations with Mexico, afterall, he had been part of that war and knew some Mexicans he was fond of. Some solace. And the Cubans have been playing that latin card under the guise of communist aggression/oppression for all its worth and others have caught on --- and even this president has played right into their hands ---


    It;s hard to buy the white intelligentsia card when whotes have been importing millions of very low intelligent people from across the planet and most of them have been white. And it simply boggles the mind why if education mattered we as a country would literally refuse to educate some 4 million freed slaves -- and then wonder about why said people seem uneducated

    -- it just wreaks of the deepest and worst hypocrisies one can dredge up from our history. Since the record on welfare is clear regarding blacks and one has to reject the canard printed in a recent Atlantic Magazine how blacks were uplifted by New Deal policies when in fact, blacks were shunted to the back of the line and in many cases absolutely denied access to the same.

    Litsening to the whites in Congress discuss impeachment was hardly a boon to well thought argument and critical thought, muchless simple legal grasp of the issues --- which given how many are supposed lawyers and business people is a more than surprising. Law makers don't the difference between legal standard and personal taste would be funny if not for what it speaks about the future or the past.

    Even now faced with a cold hard reality that blacks have crossed the color line repeatedly, many here continue their diatribe about whites as some holder of ethics, but when facing even recent history, from Vietnam era to this day the list of issues advocated by whites has shredded ethics as an ethos and as practice. I watched Richard Jewel last night and its a devastating commentary about one of the most respected law enforcement organizations we have. But then that commentray isn't new. Most of just pretend that our law enforcement agencies are nothing but clean cut whites with no capabilities hedged in by "truth justice and the american way". When in fact most of law enforcement that is hemmed by those ethics actually coddle and protect those who are not or even make mistakes, unless some extreme event occurs - power - has outweighed ethics, regardless of skin color. We are simply so afraid that if hold the system to account the whole thing ill fall apart.

    As i have to face the issues regarding my accident, I am also faced with stark terms with why I simply bail out of this time of year. It's hard to celebrate either the gift of a meal or the birth of Christ knowing that people I labored with and for quite successfully, sought to destroy not only my ability to work, but my very existence as a human being ---- "good will toward men" is just more hypocrisy than I can bare. Laughing And I am certainly not alone in that. I chagrin that blacks are not supportive republicans or conservatives despite having many of the same ethics on key issues. If this president decides as we should have ages ago, to brake with the old tired molds of identity politics, then

    "bully for him"

    And i going to say this, if in fact whites are the better humans --- their mindset on action and ethics should reflect as much. If the innate character by genes is a better human -- superior than by said truth of the advance that should be in demonstration -- but if one is going to hold as model a practice the constant double standard -- then we shouldn't be at all surprised when the mexican help sleeps with our spouse, has a child and anchor baby's the same, not only to citizenship, but the family's treasure chest as well.

    As for me, I will deal with the black or white criminal as of greater value if they are citizens whose parents were citizens and obtained the same legally.

    Immigration and the economy should trump the politics of color. And by the way, I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals. Making that a national call to vote for president Trump may gain votes, but at the end of the day we are still left with the Frank getting an operation so he can compete against Nadia Comaneci - and blacks didn't come up with that.

    I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals.

    I look forward to one or more of our hosts having fun with that number.

    If I had to guess (based on personal experience) it would be closer to 50% if petty theft and minor cons are included. If accessories after the fact (by refusing to co-operate with police investigations) is included the number is probably in the 80% range (100% in many neighborhoods).

  220. @Corvinus
    "Can you just go away, Corfagus? You’re such a leftist hack! Do everyone a favor–and choke on a big cock. Your boyfriend obviously doesn’t have enough to keep you satisfied–hence, the crazy rambling on a site that doesn’t want you here at all."

    I guess the schoolmarm on this fine blog let this comment which contains "dehumanizing language" slide. So much for standards...

    Standards don’t apply to a tiresome cuck such as you. Do go away please.

  221. @EliteCommInc.
    "US blacks are not going to vote for the party of the family-oriented, gainfully-employed, law-abiding American white majority- ever. "


    Nonsense.


    And by the way most blacks are law abiding as much as whites. I will say from experience whites are utterly childish about the reasons and mechanisms they go about making sure gainfully employed blacks are not.

    It would have nothing to do with four centuries of North American whites’ experiences with black culture, black ghetto-dialect language, black familial dysfunction, blacks’ tendency for public boisterousness, blacks’ general rudeness by those employed in the services sector, blacks’ tardiness at work and blacks’ overwhelming and never-ending dependence on government largess and legislated favoritism now would it?

  222. Politicians that do not respect our rights deserve neither our respect or our votes! Patriot Act, NDAA, FISA, HR6393, Freedom Act, section 702, are just a few of the abuses of our rights that these parasites have commited acts of treason by signing these, causing injury to the sovereign, We The People!

    It is not about national security! It is about physical and intellectual property theft!

    Wake Up America! Stop voting your rights away!

  223. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    Would you rather live in Mexico or the U.S.?

  224. Until the controlled opposition known as Conservative Inc. is gone, there can be no hope for whites in this country.
    https://republicstandard.com/the-white-mans-third-position/

  225. @Citizen12
    When I was working in a national newsroom during the 2004 election all our on-the-ground connections with the other major networks and newspapers unofficially called a heavy victory for Kerry because of the exit polls. Hours later, when Bush was announced the winner, I found myself sitting in the midst of a sea of stunned faces & so quiet you could hear a pin drop. So much for polls.

    In 2016, when polls were had been anointing Hilary the Queen of America as much as a year in advance of the election, you only needed to take a drive anywhere in Pennsylvania to realize every single election sign was for Trump. When Trump came to town he would overflow a 25,000 capacity arena--and still does; Hillary would draw some 400 people when she deigned to stop at the local airport. It was obvious the "polls" were completely bogus.

    I wouldn't believe the polls or government statistics. After 35 years of Democratic rule, Pennsylvania is now solid Trump territory. All that's left here is unemployment and zillions of illegal aliens. All the Democrats promise is more of the same.

    I wouldn’t believe the polls or government statistics.

    Or election results. Clearly a scam.

    All that’s left here is unemployment and zillions of illegal aliens.

    Okay, but why vote Republican? They are just as in favour of illegal immigration. You think the owners and managers of the chicken plants are leftist Democrats? Lol. The one guy who tried to do something was Barletta and he got screwed over by the courts because white people are not allowed to have a nation.

  226. @Audacious Epigone
    Oh come on, you know we tolerate a lower level of civility here than I would personally prefer. That's not anything new. There's a balance, sir, that must be struck. Stop tormenting me!

    “Oh come on, you know we tolerate a lower level of civility here than I would personally prefer. That’s not anything new. There’s a balance, sir, that must be struck. Stop tormenting me!”

    Your sarcasm is duly noted, as well as your refusal to respond to two very simple questions.

  227. @By-tor
    US blacks are not going to vote for the party of the family-oriented, gainfully-employed, law-abiding American white majority- ever. You must live in the Canadian Great White North far away from the cities of the American black population's post-WWII social dysfunction.

    I never said a majority of blacks, or even a quarter of blacks, would vote for a pro white party.

    However, they, as well as Latinos and asians, would respect a pro white party much more than they respect the current Zionist, billionaire globalist Republican party, who cut social services for the prole whites who think the Republicans are the white party.

    Most non whites think the Republicans are a scam, and they’re right. If there was an unapologetically white party, you would be surprised at how many POC would tag along with the strong horse. I’m not saying they should be pandered to at all. But a number (maybe not a majority) would come along for the ride.

  228. @Audacious Epigone
    Maybe I'll put together a map of 2016 by state polls leading up to the election. The national polls were pretty close--the RCP average had Clinton winning by 3.X and she ended up winning by 2. The polls got WI, MI, and PA wrong. Off the top of my head I don't recall what else they missed. Florida was close.

    The rarely told, but not particularly secret, problems with polling are in the assumptions driving “Likely Voters [LV]”. Those assumptions vary by polling firm.

    The polls were inaccurate largely because:

    — Unlikely Voters turned out for Trump
    — Likely Voters (mostly black) did not turn out for Hillary

    The national polls were pretty close–the RCP average

    Rasmussen seems to have found decent assumptions for handling “Likely Voters”, which benefited the Real Clear Politics [RCP] average. Take them out and the collection of left-leaning firms performed worse.

    PEACE 😇

  229. @EliteCommInc.
    I sometimes tire of defending what might be considered 'black positioning". In fact, I have had enough black experiences to become dismayed. But I was taught, two wrongs don't make a right. And as I have a conscience cannot maybe will not bend truth to suit political advantage. Despite the negative consequence to myself.

    Blacks band together for rather obvious reasons. I don't think there';s a need to wrangle on about that history, most know it well enough.


    This president did not win election because of a spike in crimes by blacks. Though admittedly, the turmoil over the shooting of unarmed blacks by police mattered and the responses that resulted in several officers being killed were high mileage news stories. The truth is that the police while having a very tough job at times, are more than relatively safe from harm.

    The key issues

    immigration
    foreign policy, ie. regime change
    the economy: employment, manufacturing, trade
    whiteness pressure did play a role as it almost always does but the backdrop of social somersaults on normalcy was a much larger factor in my view

    This election as long as there are no major upheavels, I don't think there will be much damage from the democratic ploy of impeachment, most likely it will backfire as it well should, the current president stands in good stead.


    I don't think there is anyone to blame for low north rates among whites, aside from whites. No one is forcing whites to stop having children. Speaking of whuch my condolences to the passing of Danny Aiello.

    And anyone who thinks that immigration, isn't a contributor to the demographic shift is simply not paying attention in my view. And worse, that immigration is the diversity that matters to US citizenship as a culture and national ethos not skin color. Skin color is the easy ruse and distraction from the importation of people who arrive and for whom we start catering to their wants:

    language, religious practices, cultural ethos and activities, re-imagined histories of the US as theives and marauders --- it is easy to take these issues out on blacks. But blacks did not import millions of Irish, Germans, Italians, Greeks, and now Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese and latinos. And the latino gamesmanship has been going on since before Spain gave up Mexico and excellerated when Pres. Grant's enfranchisement of blacks was stifled, found solace in importing and improving relations with Mexico, afterall, he had been part of that war and knew some Mexicans he was fond of. Some solace. And the Cubans have been playing that latin card under the guise of communist aggression/oppression for all its worth and others have caught on --- and even this president has played right into their hands ---


    It;s hard to buy the white intelligentsia card when whotes have been importing millions of very low intelligent people from across the planet and most of them have been white. And it simply boggles the mind why if education mattered we as a country would literally refuse to educate some 4 million freed slaves -- and then wonder about why said people seem uneducated

    -- it just wreaks of the deepest and worst hypocrisies one can dredge up from our history. Since the record on welfare is clear regarding blacks and one has to reject the canard printed in a recent Atlantic Magazine how blacks were uplifted by New Deal policies when in fact, blacks were shunted to the back of the line and in many cases absolutely denied access to the same.

    Litsening to the whites in Congress discuss impeachment was hardly a boon to well thought argument and critical thought, muchless simple legal grasp of the issues --- which given how many are supposed lawyers and business people is a more than surprising. Law makers don't the difference between legal standard and personal taste would be funny if not for what it speaks about the future or the past.

    Even now faced with a cold hard reality that blacks have crossed the color line repeatedly, many here continue their diatribe about whites as some holder of ethics, but when facing even recent history, from Vietnam era to this day the list of issues advocated by whites has shredded ethics as an ethos and as practice. I watched Richard Jewel last night and its a devastating commentary about one of the most respected law enforcement organizations we have. But then that commentray isn't new. Most of just pretend that our law enforcement agencies are nothing but clean cut whites with no capabilities hedged in by "truth justice and the american way". When in fact most of law enforcement that is hemmed by those ethics actually coddle and protect those who are not or even make mistakes, unless some extreme event occurs - power - has outweighed ethics, regardless of skin color. We are simply so afraid that if hold the system to account the whole thing ill fall apart.

    As i have to face the issues regarding my accident, I am also faced with stark terms with why I simply bail out of this time of year. It's hard to celebrate either the gift of a meal or the birth of Christ knowing that people I labored with and for quite successfully, sought to destroy not only my ability to work, but my very existence as a human being ---- "good will toward men" is just more hypocrisy than I can bare. Laughing And I am certainly not alone in that. I chagrin that blacks are not supportive republicans or conservatives despite having many of the same ethics on key issues. If this president decides as we should have ages ago, to brake with the old tired molds of identity politics, then

    "bully for him"

    And i going to say this, if in fact whites are the better humans --- their mindset on action and ethics should reflect as much. If the innate character by genes is a better human -- superior than by said truth of the advance that should be in demonstration -- but if one is going to hold as model a practice the constant double standard -- then we shouldn't be at all surprised when the mexican help sleeps with our spouse, has a child and anchor baby's the same, not only to citizenship, but the family's treasure chest as well.

    As for me, I will deal with the black or white criminal as of greater value if they are citizens whose parents were citizens and obtained the same legally.

    Immigration and the economy should trump the politics of color. And by the way, I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals. Making that a national call to vote for president Trump may gain votes, but at the end of the day we are still left with the Frank getting an operation so he can compete against Nadia Comaneci - and blacks didn't come up with that.

    Immigration and the economy should trump the politics of color

    And yet they obviously don’t. Blacks (the ones who have jobs anyway) are even more susceptible to displacement from the jobs market by low-skill immigration than whites, and at least as vulnerable to all the other ruinous effects of population churn, and yet they are the most pro-immigration voting block there is. Why? Because immigration hurts whites, and whites are their primary ethnic enemies. The white party is (supposedly, ignoring that they’ve done a worse than terrible job at it) anti immigration, the black party is pro immigration, hence blacks are pro immigration. Identity > economics, every time. To pretend otherwise is just willful stupidity.

    And by the way, I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals.

    Uninformed conjecture, and also presented in bad faith. Progs always do this; less than X in 100 immigrants do Y [provably, though the actual number must be larger], X is a small number, therefore you’re just a bigoted nazi who’s imagining the disastrous consequences of Y!

    I’m sure a lot less than half of a quarter of 1% of all Germans have ever been in a u-boat, such a tiny number could never pose a risk to trans-atlantic shipping! Whatever the percentage is, how big of a problem is criminality in majority black areas basically everywhere on earth? Disastrously huge. And criminality is just one measure of chronic black dysfunction.

    • Replies: @A123

    I’m sure a lot less than half of a quarter of 1% of all Germans have ever been in a u-boat, such a tiny number could never pose a risk to trans-atlantic shipping! Whatever the percentage is, how big of a problem is criminality in majority black areas basically everywhere on earth?
     
    Well put.

    This also applies to migration. Is it possible to find one currently non-violent Muslim? Yes. However, that is irrelevant. On balance any Christian country that accepts Muslim migrants is going to be plagued by rape. Look at Italy and Sweden: (1)


    New figures released by Italy’s Interior Ministry have revealed that 42 per cent of rapes in the country are carried out by migrants.

    ... The numbers are similar in many other European countries that have accepted large numbers of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East. Figures released last year found that 58 per cent of convicted rapists and 85 per cent of all convicted assault rapists in Sweden were born outside of Europe.
     

    PEACE 😇
    _______


    (1) https://summit.news/2019/12/10/italian-government-numbers-show-42-of-rapes-are-carried-out-by-migrants/

  230. @Russ

    Because at some point Biden’s handlers have to let him open his mouth, and when that happens, the saliva will run out and start dripping off his chin, and that’ll be that.
     
    No Malarkey is already tipping his dementia with every appearance as it is. With Quid Pro Ho' now gone and Quid Pro Homo and Quid Pro NotANavajo ebbing, it'll soon enough be Quid Pro Joe, and once that happens, the Trump squad with its record minimum $/vote in '16 fixates on the 2020 edition of Walter Mondale '84 and off we go.

    the Trump squad with its record minimum $/vote in ’16

    In 2016 Trump was promising to be an American nationalist. He had the fanatical support of American nationalists.

    Will he have the same support in 2020?

    In the past 3 years Trump has failed to deport the illegals, failed to build the wall, failed to bring home the troops, and failed to balance the trade deficit.

    He failed to protect his followers from Antifa violence and tech oligarch deplatforming. Indeed, his department of justice prosecutes any Trump supporters who dare defend themselves from Antifa, and he subsidizes the anti-free speech tech oligarchs.

    At the bidding of big Republican donors Sheldon Adelson and Paul Singer, Trump has embraced a cartoonishly plutocratic economic policy and an extreme Israel First foreign policy.

    He spits in the face of his conservatives and patriotic base by supporting cultural decadence (Lady MAGA, forcing gay rights on African countries), and promising to increase legal immigration and amnesty the “Dreamers”.

    Trump has trampled on the First amendment with anti-BDS legislation and executive decrees.

    Trump 2020 won’t have the same revolutionary energy as Trump 2016. Trump’s young, internet savvy supporters are utterly demoralized.

    All he has going for him is the zombie Reaganism of the low information, low energy conservative boomers who gave us President McCain and President Romney.

    • Agree: Haxo Angmark
  231. It may (?) be entertaining to analyze poll numbers at the present, but the analysis is even more pointless than speculating on the Final Four (even though lots of guys appear to make a living doing just that), and it is only three months away. The only poll that matters is the one on election night. That, of course, assumes election-process integrity, which is another subject in its own right. And yet again, for the “umpteenth” time – I’m not fussing at anyone, just pointing it out – people all over the spectrum talk and write about the black vote. They are approx 13% of the population. Of that, approx 7% are eligible to vote. OF THAT, not many do. If their votes could be rounded up as easily, it would be much more profitable to get the loyal Chevy (or Ford or Toyota or whichever) vote.

  232. @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Immigration and the economy should trump the politics of color
     
    And yet they obviously don't. Blacks (the ones who have jobs anyway) are even more susceptible to displacement from the jobs market by low-skill immigration than whites, and at least as vulnerable to all the other ruinous effects of population churn, and yet they are the most pro-immigration voting block there is. Why? Because immigration hurts whites, and whites are their primary ethnic enemies. The white party is (supposedly, ignoring that they've done a worse than terrible job at it) anti immigration, the black party is pro immigration, hence blacks are pro immigration. Identity > economics, every time. To pretend otherwise is just willful stupidity.

    And by the way, I think less than 5%, far less, of the black population are criminals.
     
    Uninformed conjecture, and also presented in bad faith. Progs always do this; less than X in 100 immigrants do Y [provably, though the actual number must be larger], X is a small number, therefore you're just a bigoted nazi who's imagining the disastrous consequences of Y!

    I'm sure a lot less than half of a quarter of 1% of all Germans have ever been in a u-boat, such a tiny number could never pose a risk to trans-atlantic shipping! Whatever the percentage is, how big of a problem is criminality in majority black areas basically everywhere on earth? Disastrously huge. And criminality is just one measure of chronic black dysfunction.

    I’m sure a lot less than half of a quarter of 1% of all Germans have ever been in a u-boat, such a tiny number could never pose a risk to trans-atlantic shipping! Whatever the percentage is, how big of a problem is criminality in majority black areas basically everywhere on earth?

    Well put.

    This also applies to migration. Is it possible to find one currently non-violent Muslim? Yes. However, that is irrelevant. On balance any Christian country that accepts Muslim migrants is going to be plagued by rape. Look at Italy and Sweden: (1)

    New figures released by Italy’s Interior Ministry have revealed that 42 per cent of rapes in the country are carried out by migrants.

    … The numbers are similar in many other European countries that have accepted large numbers of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East. Figures released last year found that 58 per cent of convicted rapists and 85 per cent of all convicted assault rapists in Sweden were born outside of Europe.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://summit.news/2019/12/10/italian-government-numbers-show-42-of-rapes-are-carried-out-by-migrants/

  233. @Audacious Epigone
    Maybe I'll put together a map of 2016 by state polls leading up to the election. The national polls were pretty close--the RCP average had Clinton winning by 3.X and she ended up winning by 2. The polls got WI, MI, and PA wrong. Off the top of my head I don't recall what else they missed. Florida was close.

    IIRC

    The reason why Nate Silver was less bullish on Hillary in the Midwest than Obama in 2012 is that there were a larger number of undecideds. So in other words Obama – Romney at 49-46 is safer for Dems than Clinton – Trump 44 – 41 even though both polls are Dems +3

    Also one reason why I thought Trump could win WI and PA (I bet R on those states in 2016 on predictit) is that Midwest states that Obama won twice (Iowa and Ohio) were seen as solid Red and dem weakness was near the state line

    • Agree: Ed
    • Replies: @Ed
    I had Trump winning but saw his path through NV and CO. I felt he had a chance picking up a blue wall state for the reasons you stated, IA and OH were polling so strong for him. However the polling was so bad in MI and the fact that Obama beat Romney by 800K I didn't think Trump could swing the state that much.
  234. Do Democrats really look like they are confident they will win in 2020?

    If so, why are they trying to impeach 45?

    I think the pollsters are lying again and trying to demoralize Trump voters.

    • Agree: Wally
  235. Elections are almost a year away but I see the Fag of Malta vs the Orange Man in the finals. Now both of them are for Israel but only the buttgag can appeal to his own base throughout the country and that could clinch it for him… it’s a long, long way to Tipperary!

  236. @Sam Coulton
    Coming from the individual whose every post concerns Jews or the deification of Hitler, that's rich.

    Obsessively anti-semitic schizophreniac retards are also found behind the wheel in the wreckage that is the right wing.

    Except that you cannot refute Revisionist research which proves that Hitler did not do what is alleged by exposing the absolute impossibility of your “holocaust” fantasy.

    And what’s wrong with telling the truth about Jews … that everyone already knows?

  237. “If I had to guess (based on personal experience) it would be closer to 50% if petty theft and minor cons are included. If accessories after the fact (by refusing to co-operate with police investigations)”

    So I take it you are familiar personally with 50% of the 43 million blacks in the US. Depending on where you live and what you do, for example, you live in a particular neighborhood in which crime is a staple, that might be accurate , though even then, less than 25% might be accurate — taking that experience and applying to the whole would be be incorrect.

    As for your co-operate with the police — apparently african americans co-operate with the police quite often as they routinely report criminal activity as whites do and testify in court and black juries convict blacks of crimes.

    But then the act of non-cooperation is not not color bound

    groups that don’t cooperate in criminal prosecutions of their in group

    Lawyers
    Police (law enforcement in general)
    Physicians
    Italians
    Russians
    Irish
    Hispanics
    Poles
    Germans
    Clergy, including noncatholics (generally a smaller core than most individuals here)
    members of Congress
    Wall Street corporations brokers, accounting firms, unless it’s to their leverage
    Banks — unless to same as banks
    Military officer and Enlisted staff corps
    CIA
    State Department
    President’s — all white but one
    Educators
    Realtors
    Nurses
    etc., ect. . . .

    And almost all of these if not all comprised and lead by whites . . . your comment is as if you’ve never been familiar with the real world and human beings. As if you’ve never been in neighborhoods of whites who bantered as they hung out on stoops and street corners. I love Leave it To Beaver — think it’s a great show — But i have never considered that it reflects all of white society — there’s the South Bronks, and South Boston and Hell’s kitchen and there’s all the poverty that used to be excusively white that now includes blacks along with the potential dysfunctions.
    ———————————————–

    “Uninformed conjecture, and also presented in bad faith. Progs always do this; less than X in 100 immigrants do Y [provably, though the actual number must be larger], X is a small number, therefore you’re just a bigoted nazi who’s imagining the disastrous consequences of Y!”

    Actually for those familiar with my views, they know exactly why I contend that number. But anyone who suggests that I am a progressive, is completely unaware of what my views are — laughing. I am conservative to the right of conservatives — but to your nonsense about bigotry. You have every right to dislike anyone you so chose. And i will defend that right. However, when that exceeds your thoughts and feelings and moves to acting against the rights of your fellow citizens — then we are at odds. The country was founded on tolerating difference, not liking it. There’s a difference — your bigotry or lack thereof should have no bearing on the numbers and anyone categorizing blacks as criminals based on skin color and overgeneralized notions about skin color and crime is going to apply policies that are ineffectual.

    And worse a kind of knee jerk emotional gambit. Much like the rhetorical pose that there’s a war against the police —- curious — tell me the percentage of police officers who die by homicide annually.

    And let’s face it . . . whites willing to escape goat whites as is the impeachment process now underway is nothing new. Northern whites scapegoat southern whites as routine, despite northern states engaged in the same types of policies, just more subtle and sublime.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting

    your comment is as if you’ve never been familiar with the real world and human beings.
     
    I am an old timer, have lived in every region of the US, have lived in rich areas, middle class areas, and poor areas, have lived and worked with a lot of black folks, and have also lived and worked in Whitopias as well.

    I have had to learn my lessons the hard way, since my parents, teachers, religious leaders, corporate leaders, politicians, media and every other person in leadership position lied to me about _everything_.

    Welcome to the liar's club, it is a big one!
  238. “And yet they obviously don’t. Blacks (the ones who have jobs anyway) are even more susceptible to displacement from the jobs market by low-skill immigration than whites, and at least as vulnerable to all the other ruinous effects of population churn, and yet they are the most pro-immigration voting block there is. Why? Because immigration hurts whites, and whites are their primary ethnic enemies. The white party is (supposedly, ignoring that they’ve done a worse than terrible job at it) anti immigration, the black party is pro immigration, hence blacks are pro immigration. Identity > economics, every time. To pretend otherwise is just willful stupidity.”

    Hmmmm . . . well, at least you are willing to admit that identity politics on the issue of employment is far more strenuous for the black population — and I agree. I am just going by memory, I think the last polling data by this author on immigration restriction showed that blacks favored restrictions. But you are totally incorrect that the reason blacks favor immigrants is because it hurts whites – nonsense. Those that have a benign sense for immigrants is because blacks see them as under priviliged and sympathize — in the same manner that blacks don’t have a history of turning out whites that move into their neighborhoods, collectively the black population comes from a generous ethos. But you are correct, immigration undercuts the lives and opportunities of blacks first and they for practical reasons ought to oppose it. We of course indicts whites who embrace loose immigration policy to undermine their fellow citizens — especially those that are blacks further reinforcing that identity politics of economic manipulation is as alive now as it was in 1840, 1867 and throughout the 1900’s to this very day. Whites undermining the lives of their citizens and then whining about black employment — duplicitous scape goating.

    An old tale.

  239. @Audacious Epigone
    Sure. People (of all colors) are at greater risk driving down the highway than they are from black criminality.

    I'm not making that apples-to-oranges argument myself, but there's a reasonable case for it. It's difficult, in contrast, to argue that criminality is "benign".

    Ok. Then (as a white person) minimize high risk highway personal transportation and use the subway most anywhere it’s available in the US.

  240. Chump. Trump could write an executive order repealing all acts of treason that have been passed which violate the Bill of Rights, if he wasn’t either a whimp or a predator, if he felt like it. He is the commander in chief, by law, giving in to stupid, evil psychopaths is stupid and evil!

    So what would McCain and Ryan done if Trump did those things? Walk away with their tails between their legs? Probably!

    People who violate the rights and property of othrrs do not deserve the respect, votes, patronage, or employment of anybody!

  241. @EliteCommInc.
    "If I had to guess (based on personal experience) it would be closer to 50% if petty theft and minor cons are included. If accessories after the fact (by refusing to co-operate with police investigations)"

    So I take it you are familiar personally with 50% of the 43 million blacks in the US. Depending on where you live and what you do, for example, you live in a particular neighborhood in which crime is a staple, that might be accurate , though even then, less than 25% might be accurate -- taking that experience and applying to the whole would be be incorrect.


    As for your co-operate with the police --- apparently african americans co-operate with the police quite often as they routinely report criminal activity as whites do and testify in court and black juries convict blacks of crimes.

    But then the act of non-cooperation is not not color bound

    groups that don't cooperate in criminal prosecutions of their in group

    Lawyers
    Police (law enforcement in general)
    Physicians
    Italians
    Russians
    Irish
    Hispanics
    Poles
    Germans
    Clergy, including noncatholics (generally a smaller core than most individuals here)
    members of Congress
    Wall Street corporations brokers, accounting firms, unless it's to their leverage
    Banks -- unless to same as banks
    Military officer and Enlisted staff corps
    CIA
    State Department
    President's -- all white but one
    Educators
    Realtors
    Nurses
    etc., ect. . . .

    And almost all of these if not all comprised and lead by whites . . . your comment is as if you've never been familiar with the real world and human beings. As if you've never been in neighborhoods of whites who bantered as they hung out on stoops and street corners. I love Leave it To Beaver -- think it's a great show -- But i have never considered that it reflects all of white society -- there's the South Bronks, and South Boston and Hell's kitchen and there's all the poverty that used to be excusively white that now includes blacks along with the potential dysfunctions.
    -----------------------------------------------

    "Uninformed conjecture, and also presented in bad faith. Progs always do this; less than X in 100 immigrants do Y [provably, though the actual number must be larger], X is a small number, therefore you’re just a bigoted nazi who’s imagining the disastrous consequences of Y!"


    Actually for those familiar with my views, they know exactly why I contend that number. But anyone who suggests that I am a progressive, is completely unaware of what my views are -- laughing. I am conservative to the right of conservatives -- but to your nonsense about bigotry. You have every right to dislike anyone you so chose. And i will defend that right. However, when that exceeds your thoughts and feelings and moves to acting against the rights of your fellow citizens -- then we are at odds. The country was founded on tolerating difference, not liking it. There's a difference -- your bigotry or lack thereof should have no bearing on the numbers and anyone categorizing blacks as criminals based on skin color and overgeneralized notions about skin color and crime is going to apply policies that are ineffectual.

    And worse a kind of knee jerk emotional gambit. Much like the rhetorical pose that there's a war against the police ---- curious -- tell me the percentage of police officers who die by homicide annually.


    And let's face it . . . whites willing to escape goat whites as is the impeachment process now underway is nothing new. Northern whites scapegoat southern whites as routine, despite northern states engaged in the same types of policies, just more subtle and sublime.

    your comment is as if you’ve never been familiar with the real world and human beings.

    I am an old timer, have lived in every region of the US, have lived in rich areas, middle class areas, and poor areas, have lived and worked with a lot of black folks, and have also lived and worked in Whitopias as well.

    I have had to learn my lessons the hard way, since my parents, teachers, religious leaders, corporate leaders, politicians, media and every other person in leadership position lied to me about _everything_.

    Welcome to the liar’s club, it is a big one!

  242. The Orange Tweetybird did little or nothing to stop demographic terrorism or voter fraud so there’s a good chance he’ll lose.

    Democracy is a racial headcount.

    Another 10 years and Texas and Florida will devolve into blue states just like virginia.

  243. Anonymous[176] • Disclaimer says:
    @MBlanc46
    Sometimes I think that maybe President Trump still has a chance in 2020. Then I look at actual data (such as it is). The world as I knew it comes to an end on 20 JAN 2021.

    No one will suffer more under whatever part of the GND is passed than the Dem base, so take heart. When the markets tank again, look for confiscation of the $7.2 billion in private retirement assets under the guise of protecting them from going to zero, issuing worthless gov paper as replacement.

  244. Chump. Trump could have written an executive order repealing all acts of treason which violate the Bill of Rights if he was not either a whimp or a predator.

    Trump is the commander in chief. Those are totally lame brain excuses.

    What would McCain and Ryan had done if Trump would have told them all off and stuck to his guns? Walk away with their tails between their legs, or after Trump announced that he repealed all acts of treason by executive order and ended the wars if McCain, Ryan, and neocons and DNC tried to impeach Trump for THOSE things, there would have been a revolution and Trump would have 80% approval ratings!

    McCain, Ryan, neocons, DNC would have been tarred and feathered and in stockades!

  245. The same pollsters that predicted Hillary would crush Trump in 2016 are now predicting that any one of the 3 clowns leading the Dem pack will crush Trump in 2020.

  246. Looks like Trump will have an uphill battle to remain in office. Pity that. I resent the theater the Dims have played since his election…such election which, BTW, saved us from a Clinton presidency.

  247. Trump will win 2020 and easily, it’s 2024 we gotta worry about.

    Though we might get an article about “how [insert democratic candidate] is the lesser evil” on Unz.

  248. @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders has been careful not to spit on Trump supporters, at least so far as I'm aware. He is unique among top-tier Democrats in this regard.

    He’s disavowed it, but his previous position against immigration was good, and he has been good on gun rights due to representing Vermont. I’d rather see him than Warren. I don’t think he’d be able to get much done and would be relatively harmless.

  249. @Curmudgeon
    You seem to be ignoring the massive vote fraud in Illinois, particularly Chicago, where more votes were cast than there were voters, including lots of the dead ones showing up to vote for Kennedy. Nixon did the honorable thing, not the right thing, by accepting the fraudulent result that would have given him the election.

    Nixon would still have lost in the Electoral College if he had won Illinois and its 27 votes.

    John F. Kennedy
    Democratic
    303

    Richard M. Nixon
    Republican
    219

    Harry F. Byrd
    Democratic
    15

    • Agree: Durruti
    • Replies: @Durruti

    Nixon would still have lost in the Electoral College if he had won Illinois and its 27 votes.
     
    Yes, the election would not have Flipped.

    Let the mostly Zionist - Kennedy haters, understand, John Fitzgerald Kennedy won the 1960 election. Nixon lost!

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=kennedy+wins+the+1960+election&qpvt=kennedy+wins+the+1960+election&FORM=IGRE

    One of thousands of links:

    President John F. Kennedy bravely served the American people, until the Zionist Oligarchs assassinated him and overthrew our last Constitutional Government, on November 22, 1963.

    , @Durruti
    Had short reply here on Flip's comment- this morning. It hung around as, "Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm." - for quite a while. Then disappeared.
  250. These polls oversample democrats by 10%+ and undersample republicans & independents by 10%. The results are absurd.

  251. Here is how one pundit was projecting so badly in 2016:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    Wait. The Map that 538 showed looks remarkably similar to the map in this article.

    How interesting. They keep on projecting the same old bullshit!

    https://gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/023/886/966/original/bcf119915f04f88c.png?1576370648

  252. Unwilling, sometimes unable to
    understand charts, polls, graphs, language,
    since usually are propaganda, BS, wrong.

    Trump in 2020 – 68%.

    Melania is the greatest First Lady.
    This White House Christmas should be spectacular.
    Watch.
    Dems will cry.
    Forget Michelle. She can smile. That’s all.

    5ds

  253. @Peripatetic Commenter
    Here is how one pundit was projecting so badly in 2016:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Wait. The Map that 538 showed looks remarkably similar to the map in this article.

    How interesting. They keep on projecting the same old bullshit!

    • Agree: Ed
  254. @MarkinLA
    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven’t been paying attention.

    Actually, we have been paying attention. Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover. Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented.

    “Actually, we have been paying attention.”

    Not to the immutable facts.

    “Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover.”

    “Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented.”

    You mean like the rule of law? Presidents prior to Trump did not engage in his particular action–using underlings through backchannels to get information about political rivals. Moreover, if it is so “above board”, i.e. commonplace, why stonewall the investigation? Why would a plethora of witnesses who are privy to past presidential behavior and the law testify in detail how Trump’s conduct is beyond the pale? And, why are Trump senior aides further restricting the number of administration officials allowed to listen to the President’s phone calls with foreign leaders? How is that transparent?

    And GOP interest in listening to the CIA began and ended—apparently—with Carter Page. The same Page investigated by the FBI for being a Russian spy BEFORE Trump announced a presidential run because he gave info to Russian spies, admitted to it, and called himself a “Kremlin adviser”.

    Indeed, the dossier perfectly replicated at least two conversations Page secretly had with Kremlin officials and lied about on national TV when he returned to the United States. The dossier’s replication of those conversations was in fact one of its best indicia of reliability. The FBI literally investigated Page as a possible Russian agent just 2 years before the presidential campaign began.

    So based on the testimonial and documentary evidence, it’s clear that Trump sought to solicit bribes from Poroshenko before he even knew that Zelensky would be president and he’d try to solicit bribes from him instead.

    The fact of the matter is that the transcript is prima facie quid pro quo. Zelensky now states blocking aid was wrong. The Ukrainians knew that the aid was being held up on the day of that call. A Ukrainian prosecutor general started the investigation of Biden on Guiliani’s demand in April 2019 at the latest. And a plethora of witnesses confirm the prima facie quid pro quo.

    Here is the time line.
    January: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    February: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    March: Rudy gets Biden dirt to Solomon via Lutsenko.
    April: Lutsenko recants the Biden dirt he gave Solomon.

    It wasn’t about Trump trying to stamp out ALL corruption in the Ukraine, it was about trying to get information about a potential political opponent.

    Democrats know BRIBERY fits these facts perfectly, as they put the elements of soliciting a bribe (per the federal criminal statute for bribery) at the very beginning of the abuse of power article. However, when Republicans complain they have no idea what conduct is being described, they know full well it is BRIBERY, but the Democrats dare not say it repeatedly and openly because they want to avoid the word in an election year.

    On top of it all, you have Governor Mike Huckabee who is trying to move the Overton Window through this tweet–I’ll be on @seanhannity 2nite @FoxNews at 9pm ET and will explain how @realDonaldTrump will be eligible for a 3rd term due to the illegal attempts by Comey, Dems, and media, et al attempting to oust him as @POTUS so that’s why I was named to head up the 2024 re-election.

    So Huckabee already supports a third term; is “testing the waters” using Overton-Window theory; or is “drafting” off the unconstitutional, unpatriotic rhetoric of actual radicals to get attention.

    Remember, IG Michael Horowtiz: “We did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that indicated political bias or improper motivation influencing his decision to open the investigation.”

    Yet, Bill Barr is having a conniption fit, despite saying prior to the report that he would accept its findings regardless. LOL.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him. Trump didn't go near as far as Hillary and Obama in seeking foreign interference for Hillary. It is a big nothingburger and people who actually have brains know it.
    , @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    When you drink the kool aid it's not necessary to drink the whole jug.
    That was the steamiest, pile of analysis I've seen.
    You just can't place a dollar value on this kind of indoctrination. The Media Moguls invest wisely. They've got you believing white is black and up is down.
    The process of money corrupting politics has been an issue for decades. Campaign finance reform could have been done in the '80's but DC agreed to not have real rules.
    Now we are here.
    The Democrats used $5 billion in Ukraine for nefarious purpose. Everyone wanted in on Ukraine as it was clear the U.S. was 'buying' the country. Natural gas, wheat basket, manufacturing base, well-educated people, maybe some mineral resources. The Jews in Wall St, D.C. and Soros himself wanted in. Lots of grease going around.
    Trump knows the Dem's have tons to hide so they've cooked up the Impeachment hoax, just like the Russia Hoax, and you have swallowed it: hook, line and sinker.
    Don't you get tired of swallowing?
  255. Get your AR-15s now. The next dem president and dem congress will outlaw them.

  256. @Colin Wright
    'Why?'

    Why?

    Because at some point Biden's handlers have to let him open his mouth, and when that happens, the saliva will run out and start dripping off his chin, and that'll be that.

    there’s a reason Drumpf just shifted his voter registration to Florida:

    even. one. vote. could. be. decisive, as in:

    Drumpf wins Florida by one vote,

    and then the EC by one vote.

  257. @Corvinus
    "Actually, we have been paying attention."

    Not to the immutable facts.

    "Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover."

    "Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented."

    You mean like the rule of law? Presidents prior to Trump did not engage in his particular action–using underlings through backchannels to get information about political rivals. Moreover, if it is so “above board”, i.e. commonplace, why stonewall the investigation? Why would a plethora of witnesses who are privy to past presidential behavior and the law testify in detail how Trump’s conduct is beyond the pale? And, why are Trump senior aides further restricting the number of administration officials allowed to listen to the President’s phone calls with foreign leaders? How is that transparent?

    And GOP interest in listening to the CIA began and ended—apparently—with Carter Page. The same Page investigated by the FBI for being a Russian spy BEFORE Trump announced a presidential run because he gave info to Russian spies, admitted to it, and called himself a “Kremlin adviser”.

    Indeed, the dossier perfectly replicated at least two conversations Page secretly had with Kremlin officials and lied about on national TV when he returned to the United States. The dossier’s replication of those conversations was in fact one of its best indicia of reliability. The FBI literally investigated Page as a possible Russian agent just 2 years before the presidential campaign began.

    So based on the testimonial and documentary evidence, it’s clear that Trump sought to solicit bribes from Poroshenko before he even knew that Zelensky would be president and he’d try to solicit bribes from him instead.

    The fact of the matter is that the transcript is prima facie quid pro quo. Zelensky now states blocking aid was wrong. The Ukrainians knew that the aid was being held up on the day of that call. A Ukrainian prosecutor general started the investigation of Biden on Guiliani’s demand in April 2019 at the latest. And a plethora of witnesses confirm the prima facie quid pro quo.

    Here is the time line.
    January: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    February: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    March: Rudy gets Biden dirt to Solomon via Lutsenko.
    April: Lutsenko recants the Biden dirt he gave Solomon.

    It wasn’t about Trump trying to stamp out ALL corruption in the Ukraine, it was about trying to get information about a potential political opponent.

    Democrats know BRIBERY fits these facts perfectly, as they put the elements of soliciting a bribe (per the federal criminal statute for bribery) at the very beginning of the abuse of power article. However, when Republicans complain they have no idea what conduct is being described, they know full well it is BRIBERY, but the Democrats dare not say it repeatedly and openly because they want to avoid the word in an election year.

    On top of it all, you have Governor Mike Huckabee who is trying to move the Overton Window through this tweet–I’ll be on @seanhannity 2nite @FoxNews at 9pm ET and will explain how @realDonaldTrump will be eligible for a 3rd term due to the illegal attempts by Comey, Dems, and media, et al attempting to oust him as @POTUS so that’s why I was named to head up the 2024 re-election.

    So Huckabee already supports a third term; is “testing the waters” using Overton-Window theory; or is “drafting” off the unconstitutional, unpatriotic rhetoric of actual radicals to get attention.

    Remember, IG Michael Horowtiz: “We did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that indicated political bias or improper motivation influencing his decision to open the investigation.”

    Yet, Bill Barr is having a conniption fit, despite saying prior to the report that he would accept its findings regardless. LOL.

    The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him. Trump didn’t go near as far as Hillary and Obama in seeking foreign interference for Hillary. It is a big nothingburger and people who actually have brains know it.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him."

    Doesn't work that way, friend. Horowitz testified that he has never in his career as DOJ IG, across hundreds and hundreds of investigations, encountered a situation in which officials at the DOJ insisted the DOJ engaged in MORE misconduct than the DOJ IG found. Until Barr. Until this ONE case. It is also note that Page pled the Fifth rather than turn over any documents to the House or Senate. The CIA also gave out information that there were compromising tapes on Trump.

    You're way in over your head here. Quit while you are behind.
  258. A ridiculous take and analysis based on premature polling where pollsters aren’t screening for likely voters and a nominee hasn’t yet been named. Trump is well positioned and Texas is not in play.

  259. @follyofwar
    White Dems should stop and think, a vote for Biden is a vote for President Abrams, if that's his running mate. Old Joe will not survive until 2024. Do you really think Abrams is smart?

    Agree with AE’s comment. Plus, she’s aware of the zeitgeist amongst the elites in media, government, and culture that is crying out for the leadership of the Holy Black Woman. Because only She can redeem us.

  260. @Gman
    IIRC

    The reason why Nate Silver was less bullish on Hillary in the Midwest than Obama in 2012 is that there were a larger number of undecideds. So in other words Obama - Romney at 49-46 is safer for Dems than Clinton - Trump 44 - 41 even though both polls are Dems +3

    Also one reason why I thought Trump could win WI and PA (I bet R on those states in 2016 on predictit) is that Midwest states that Obama won twice (Iowa and Ohio) were seen as solid Red and dem weakness was near the state line

    I had Trump winning but saw his path through NV and CO. I felt he had a chance picking up a blue wall state for the reasons you stated, IA and OH were polling so strong for him. However the polling was so bad in MI and the fact that Obama beat Romney by 800K I didn’t think Trump could swing the state that much.

  261. The Orange Tweetybird did little to nothing to stop demographic terrorism or voter fraud, so there’s a good chance he’ll lose.

    Democracy is a racial headcount.

    Another 10 years and Texas and Florida will devolve into blue states just like virginia.

  262. @Gizmo880
    I’m not sure of all the legal challenges going on, but if convicted felons get the right to vote in Florida as was approved by the voters in the last election down here, Florida is most likely going Blue no matter who the Dem nominee is.

    Yes, many ignorant Florida Republicans voted to restore voting rights to convicted felons without the first effing idea of what that is going to mean. A more self destroying vote has hardly been cast by any group of people anywhere.

    And in reading some of the comments above, many of you are correct in noting that this country will essentially be over if that radical piece of shit Stacey Abrams ever gets into power.

    Excuse me now as I feel the need to go watch my copy of Red Dawn with Patrick Swayze.

    Florida voters giving convicted felons the right to vote was upsetting to me for many reasons. I heard it was wildly popular among conservative Christians. Back in the early 80s when the Moral Majority existed the Christian right was concerned about a LOT of different issues related to moral decay. Today the Christian right seems solely focused on abortion. They aren’t smart enough to connect the dots…felons voting=more Democrats=more liberal abortion laws.

    The other thing that bothers me about this is it shows how conservatives have drifted to the left without realizing it. 20 years ago hardly anyone would be sympathetic to giving felons more rights. Even many Democrats would have thought felons voting was way out there. Today most everyone (except myself it seems) has a pro criminal agenda (criminal justice reform, no death penalty, felons voting, forcing companies to hire felons etc.).

    • Replies: @Sick of Orcs
    You're not alone my friend, nor are you crazy. Retardicans have always had, to put it mildly, questionable judgement regarding their own survival.

    Lowering the voting age to 18, an honor which should've been limited to veterans, was foolhardy. Voting age 25 allowed young folk to experience the joys of taxation for a few years first.

    Worse than Reagan's amnesty cave-in (did he really trust shitlibs to honor an agreement after being one?) was no Retardican in the 80s fighting--or at least warning!--of the abhorrent anarchy of birthright citizenship for illegals. As Ann Coulter has pointed out many times, this isn't even established law.

    There's little use trying to ponder any Retardican being pro-voting rights for felons. Perhaps some actuarial dweeb deep in the bowels of Elephant Inc. said, "There aren't that many felons, plus it will look like we're reaching out to minorities!" (This in a time Elephant Inc. won't reach out to its own base of White Guys.)

    A recent columnist summed up the Uniparty perfectly: "Democrats promote a radical agenda, Republicans offer token opposition then throw the fight."
    , @Sick of Orcs
    You’re not alone my friend, nor are you crazy. Retardicans have always had, to put it mildly, questionable judgement regarding their own survival.

    Lowering the voting age to 18, an honor which should’ve been limited to veterans, was foolhardy. Voting age 25 allowed young folk to experience the joys of taxation for a few years first.

    Worse than Reagan’s amnesty cave-in (did he really trust shitlibs to honor an agreement after being one?) was not a single Retardican in the 1980s fighting–or at least warning!–of the abhorrent anarchy of birthright citizenship for illegals. As Ann Coulter has pointed out many times, this isn’t even established law.

    There’s little use trying to ponder any Retardican being pro-voting rights for felons. Perhaps some actuarial dweeb deep in the bowels of Elephant Inc. said, “There aren’t that many felons, plus it will look like we’re reaching out to minorities!” (This in a time Elephant Inc. won’t reach out to its own base of White Guys.)

    A recent columnist summed up the Uniparty perfectly: “Democrats promote a radical agenda, Republicans offer token opposition then throw the fight.”
  263. Does anyone not think they are gaslighting just as hard as they can? The polls are solid. Just like 2016 when we were going to have Hillary in a landslide.

    How can anyone trust the polls now?

  264. @MarkinLA
    The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him. Trump didn't go near as far as Hillary and Obama in seeking foreign interference for Hillary. It is a big nothingburger and people who actually have brains know it.

    “The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him.”

    Doesn’t work that way, friend. Horowitz testified that he has never in his career as DOJ IG, across hundreds and hundreds of investigations, encountered a situation in which officials at the DOJ insisted the DOJ engaged in MORE misconduct than the DOJ IG found. Until Barr. Until this ONE case. It is also note that Page pled the Fifth rather than turn over any documents to the House or Senate. The CIA also gave out information that there were compromising tapes on Trump.

    You’re way in over your head here. Quit while you are behind.

    • Replies: @Thomasina
    You're the one who is way in over his head. Horowitz does not have subpoena power. All he could do was interview FBI officials - that's it! But Barr, he does have subpoena power and he has been investigating and interviewing witnesses, along with Durham. They even traveled to Italy, and I think they even went to the Ukraine.

    My understanding is that aid money sent to Ukraine (U.S. taxpayer money) was being laundered out through various countries (Lithuania, I believe, and Cypress was another one) and then out into shell companies in tax havens like Panama. It's going to be an interesting paper trail.

    Imagine if they start looking under the rocks, like the Clinton pay-for-play Foundation, or the Uranium One deal where Hillary sold off 20% of U.S. uranium to Russia once a certain sum was deposited into the Clinton Foundation and once Bill Clinton got his $500,000.00 Russia speaking fee, or the Biden's in Ukraine.

    Russiagate and Ukrainegate have been all about getting rid of Trump before this all surfaces. As Hillary said to one of her aides during the campaign, "If they ever find out, we'll all be hanged."

    Ever since Trump got elected (and even before he was elected) there has been an attempted coup to overthrow a duly-elected President of the United States.

    If you're okay with this, then have at it.
    , @MarkinLA
    Yet, none of the nonsense you barf out made it to the "Articles of Impeachment". Just like all the other fantasies you produced while the Mueller fantasy was going, you read some idiots website and pretend it is true. Who is it this time "Seth whateverthehellhisnameisagain"
  265. @Justvisiting

    Secession is just another right-wing delusion.
     
    It is today, but today is not forever.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede. Then the crazy leftists get to be the pioneers that take all the arrow hits, and the Overton Window opens to allow secession to be considered as an option by everyone.

    Imho the best (sneaky) approach would be to push California to secede.

    Why on earth would California want to secede? A few crazy liberals always make those kinds of noises when there’s an evil fascist Republican president but that’s just a political strategy – they do it so they can claim that the evil fascist Republican president is Dividing the Nation.

    It’s a cry-bully strategy. They don’t have the slightest interest in actually seceding. Why would they? The liberals are in complete control. Liberals would not have the slightest thing to gain by secession.

    The “encourage California to secede” thing is just another right-wing fantasy. Liberals control the entire country and they intend to maintain that control. The Trump Presidency has demonstrated that liberal power is not under any serious threat.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
  266. @John Arthur
    Exactly, I feel like other non whites would support the GOP if they made themselves the party of White Civilization, which is why they are all here in the United States.
    Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers. Even if Republicans were pro-immigration, why would any working class nonwhite support them?

    Republicans need to make the explicit argument that a more White America will be better for nonwhites payroll than a less White America. Even Hispanics, Arabs, and Asians can tell that they will do better in a America with Seattle's demographics than Detroit's, and one that wont send their kids to die fighting some random Neocon fetish.

    “Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers.”

    And the Democrats aren’t?

    Who went into Libya and overthrew a sovereign government? Who said, “We came, we saw, he died” after being told Gaddafi had just been murdered? Who took Libya’s gold? Who shipped Libya’s weapons on to Syria? The Democrats.

    Who went into Syria and tried to overthrow a sovereign country? The Democrats.

    Who orchestated the Maidan coup in Ukraine? The Democrats.

    Who started the Russiagate hoax? The Democrats.

    Who started the Ukrainegate hoax? The Democrats.

    Who personally withheld funds from Ukraine until an investigation into Burisma Holdings was stopped, a company that his own son (with no oil and gas experience) was earning approximately $80,000.00/month as a board member? Joe Biden, a Democrat.

    Who bailed out the Wall Street bankers in 2008? Barack Obama and the Democrats.

    Who made sure not one banker saw any jail time? Eric Holder and the Democrats.

    Who was using her own servers (that she knew was unlawful) in order to hide her pay-for-play scheme with foreign governments, money that ended up being funneled into the Clinton Foundation? Hillary Clinton.

    I could go on and on. BOTH parties are beholden to Wall Street and the warmongers. The Democrat sold out the little person decades ago.

    I truly believe that Trump would have closed the borders had he not been stopped by both the Democrats and those Republicans who are beholden to corporate interests.

    I am amazed that people are not better informed.

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    Yes. Democrats serve the oligarchy just as much as the Republicans, if not more.
  267. @songbird
    I have a hard time believing Warren could win. She is just so shrill that she alienates even the average normie man.

    Even cucks would blanch at the idea of a demented librarian with nuclear weapons.

  268. @Corvinus
    "How many leftists have you morally shamed for their defamation of Mitt Romney in 2012?"

    Is Romney hitching his wagon and running for elective office? Regardless, I'm an educated, married white man who makes his own decisions about race and culture. Leftist? Surely you jest.

    "All attacks on GOP politicians are indirect attacks on their supporters who lack any means of collective self-defense other than voting."

    Trump is not a GOP, nor a Republican. He's an (alleged) anti-globalist, anti-corruption fighter. And there is no "attack" here, just the unvarnished truth regarding Trump's record.

    You’re a cuck.

  269. @MBlanc46
    As John Derbyshire puts it, “We are doomed”.

    And we’re doomed in large part because of philo-Semites like the Derb.

  270. So people still believe in pollsters? Adults?
    Lol

  271. @Corvinus
    "The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him."

    Doesn't work that way, friend. Horowitz testified that he has never in his career as DOJ IG, across hundreds and hundreds of investigations, encountered a situation in which officials at the DOJ insisted the DOJ engaged in MORE misconduct than the DOJ IG found. Until Barr. Until this ONE case. It is also note that Page pled the Fifth rather than turn over any documents to the House or Senate. The CIA also gave out information that there were compromising tapes on Trump.

    You're way in over your head here. Quit while you are behind.

    You’re the one who is way in over his head. Horowitz does not have subpoena power. All he could do was interview FBI officials – that’s it! But Barr, he does have subpoena power and he has been investigating and interviewing witnesses, along with Durham. They even traveled to Italy, and I think they even went to the Ukraine.

    My understanding is that aid money sent to Ukraine (U.S. taxpayer money) was being laundered out through various countries (Lithuania, I believe, and Cypress was another one) and then out into shell companies in tax havens like Panama. It’s going to be an interesting paper trail.

    Imagine if they start looking under the rocks, like the Clinton pay-for-play Foundation, or the Uranium One deal where Hillary sold off 20% of U.S. uranium to Russia once a certain sum was deposited into the Clinton Foundation and once Bill Clinton got his $500,000.00 Russia speaking fee, or the Biden’s in Ukraine.

    Russiagate and Ukrainegate have been all about getting rid of Trump before this all surfaces. As Hillary said to one of her aides during the campaign, “If they ever find out, we’ll all be hanged.”

    Ever since Trump got elected (and even before he was elected) there has been an attempted coup to overthrow a duly-elected President of the United States.

    If you’re okay with this, then have at it.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "You’re the one who is way in over his head. Horowitz does not have subpoena power."

    That would be a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made that reference.

    "My understanding is that aid money sent to Ukraine (U.S. taxpayer money) was being laundered out through various countries (Lithuania, I believe, and Cypress was another one) and then out into shell companies in tax havens like Panama. It’s going to be an interesting paper trail."

    Great! Let that information, if there is this "paper trail", have it come out into the open. Of course, since you are interested in laundering and shell companies, then you have no objections to Trump releasing his tax returns.

    "Imagine if they start looking under the rocks, like the Clinton pay-for-play Foundation, or the Uranium One deal where Hillary sold off 20% of U.S. uranium to Russia once a certain sum was deposited into the Clinton Foundation and once Bill Clinton got his $500,000.00 Russia speaking fee, or the Biden’s in Ukraine."

    That already has been vetted. But, no problem, let the facts come out. Again, since you are so interested in corruption, then you have no issues with the continuation of the investigations into Trump finances.

    "Russiagate and Ukrainegate have been all about getting rid of Trump before this all surfaces. As Hillary said to one of her aides during the campaign, “If they ever find out, we’ll all be hanged.”"

    And Trump said to a friend (I'm paraphrasing here), "If Manafort ever squeals, I'm done for".

    "Ever since Trump got elected (and even before he was elected) there has been an attempted coup to overthrow a duly-elected President of the United States."

    I didn't realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter.

    If you’re okay with this, then have at it.

  272. @Realist
    Polls at this point are useless...if not always.

    Not only are the polls fake, but so will be the 2020 voting in Komifornia n other locales where the State Diversity Cult wields its absolute power. Voting for Orange Man will be suppressed as a sinful hate crime.

  273. @clintwestwood
    Fuck this is depressing. The daily slander and hate mongering against white men is now a fixture of popular culture and it will only get worse. More great white defendants, more self-righteous and black womxn rambling incoherently about critical theory and how society is insufficiently appreciative of their hair.
    Once the left takes full power, American free speech exceptionalism will fall by the wayside. Hate speech restrictions will emerge and anyone that departs from woke orthodoxy will be threatened with criminal liability.

    As a zoomer it is hard to feel optimistic about anything

    We are entering an age of religious wars. Voting n polls are irrelevant. Since voting is just a form of speech, when speech can be suppressed as a harmful act, voting the wrong way becomes a crime. Supposedly the first amendment protects freedom of political speech from an established state religion. But we now have a state religion, the PC Diversity Cult. While the Supreme Court fiddles, the new state religion is suppressing free speech everywhere, attacking not just the bill of rights but the entire Constitution.

  274. @WorkingClass
    I googled retarded baby boomers but did not look beyond the first page of results. I found lots of references to retarded baby boomers but nothing about the actual prevalence of mental retardation among that cohort. I brought back this tidbit.

    The majority of baby boomers support their adult children

    According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39. There are several potential reasons for this, such as record-high student-debt levels and a difficult job market for recent college graduates.
     
    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/07/29/9-baby-boomer-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx

    Are there a significant number of Americans who hate their parents and grand parents?

    I was born in '44 which makes me GREATEST GENERATION. I was a great baby. And I can tell you that the world was already fucked up when the Boomers got here. And it will still be fucked up when you are done with it.

    The problem with boomers over 65 is that their outlook was formed in the 50s n 60s when intellectuals swallowed whole trendy Communist propaganda, n they have learned nothing since. They still think white racism n desegregation protest marches are relevant. You can’t get more out of touch than that. Only boomers n college students are so uninformed that… Well I’ve learned from experience not to waste my breath on them.

  275. Absolutely,

    blacks can be stupid, ignorant, criminal, evil, liars, deceivers, murderers, rapists, con artists, naves, and engage in a host of ills and be ignorant in their being as the same . . .

    I would not, and do not make any such claims that that is not the case —–

    I just don’t buy that it is as universal or inherent as advertised.

  276. @dc.sunsets
    Thought experiment: A dem (any dem) wins in 2020 and Congress stays in the hands of the UniParty Majority. What will the Left do, emboldened by success?
    1. Ban guns. Bet on it, both state and federal bans (de facto or de jure) will come fast and furious.
    2. Impose today's LGBT butt-sex coprophagia on schools but doubled and re-doubled.
    3. Every possible opportunity grab SWG (straight white guy) by the hair and ram his face into dog excrement will be instituted.

    Do you all think this can keep going, like the Energizer Bunny? Is Boobus Americanus so devoid of testosterone now that gang-raping men and women via politics can never generate revolt?

    Perhaps it's time to re-read the 500 year old wisdom of Etienne de la Boetie.
    https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/boetie-the-discourse-of-voluntary-servitude

    What vice is it, or, rather, what degradation? To see an endless multitude of people not merely obeying, but driven to servility? Not ruled, but tyrannized over? These wretches have no wealth, no kin, nor wife nor children, not even life itself that they can call their own. They suffer plundering, wantonness, cruelty, not from an army, not from a barbarian horde, on account of whom they must shed their blood and sacrifice their lives, but from a single man; not from a Hercules nor from a Samson, but from a single little man. Too frequently this same little man is the most cowardly and effeminate in the nation, a stranger to the powder of battle and hesitant on the sands of the tournament; not only without energy to direct men by force, but with hardly enough virility to bed with a common woman! Shall we call subjection to such a leader cowardice? Shall we say that those who serve him are cowardly and faint-hearted? If two, if three, if four, do not defend themselves from the one, we might call that circumstance surprising but nevertheless conceivable. In such a case one might be justified in suspecting a lack of courage. But if a hundred, if a thousand endure the caprice of a single man, should we not rather say that they lack not the courage but the desire to rise against him, and that such an attitude indicates indifference rather than cowardice?
     
    Will Americans be forever indifferent to their rape by Blue Commissars, by the Nomenklatura of Sodom and Gomorrah?

    Count me skeptical.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    It is indeed very strange how American white males absolutely refuse to help each other, or even be civil to each other, unlike in almost every other country. They flock to join any organisation which has a woman at its head, but run like heck rather than cooperate with other white males. I can only assume they are all infected with self defeating individualism, or are shaking in their boots that someone might call them racist. They will just keep losing until they finally decide to work together.

    • Agree: Marshall Lentini
    • Replies: @Marshall Lentini
    Result of outbreeding. Less related, less ethnocentric, more competitive. This means the men will cock-block each other trying to get favor with women, and the women will compete for the best beta for sustenance and the best alpha for status or wealth. White men are the least ethnocentric and most objective people on earth: thus are they doomed to disappear in the age of panmixia.
    , @Corvinus
    "It is indeed very strange how American white males absolutely refuse to help each other, or even be civil to each other, unlike in almost every other country."

    Actually, today's white American men are quite amenable to one another.
  277. @Desert Fox
    Smartmatic voting machines are used in 16 states and the company is owned by Soros, so the polls are meaningless and voting machines can be programed to give the desired results, elections for POTUS are a joke, and as usual the zionists who control the ZUS government and control both the demonrats and the republicons win every time.

    I live in a large Southern city. Republicans had to sue to stop the local county clerk, a Dem, from connecting the county’s voting machines to the internet, which would have been a violation of state law. After several California counties ‘discovered’ boxes of votes which reversed close races in 2016, I have zero confidence that the elections in 2020 will be fair or reliable. Not even purple fingers can fix the fraud that will be unleashed.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
    Check the site blackboxvoting.org ran by Bev Harris, all voting machines can be programed to give the desired results, voting especially for POTUS is a joke and state and county elections are becoming suspect, here in Montana in the 2018 race for the senate, the results were in my opinion suspect as the winner closed a 5000 plus gap in an area where the results were suspect as the vote was highly irregular, but nothing was said!

    As Stalin was supposed to have said, it is not who votes that counts but who counts the votes.
  278. @Audacious Epigone
    Sure. People (of all colors) are at greater risk driving down the highway than they are from black criminality.

    I'm not making that apples-to-oranges argument myself, but there's a reasonable case for it. It's difficult, in contrast, to argue that criminality is "benign".

    Road accidents are almost all reported. But only a portion of black crime is reported. We’ll never know how much because most victims believe it would be a waste of time since nothing would be done. The true scale of black crime is probably far greater than official statistics.

  279. @AnonFromTN
    In 2016 polls predicted that cackling hyena wins. We know how reliable that prediction was. Is there any reason to believe that these predictions are any better?

    So far Dems do their level best to help Trump reelection. Their impeachment circus, which boils down to “Biden is corrupt, so let’s impeach Trump” is doing wonders to bury Dems.

    A Trump reelection would be the best thing for the establishment. Four more years of posturing and planning til their own day of the rope. Which will only come sooner if he doesn’t win.

  280. @Sin City Milla
    It is indeed very strange how American white males absolutely refuse to help each other, or even be civil to each other, unlike in almost every other country. They flock to join any organisation which has a woman at its head, but run like heck rather than cooperate with other white males. I can only assume they are all infected with self defeating individualism, or are shaking in their boots that someone might call them racist. They will just keep losing until they finally decide to work together.

    Result of outbreeding. Less related, less ethnocentric, more competitive. This means the men will cock-block each other trying to get favor with women, and the women will compete for the best beta for sustenance and the best alpha for status or wealth. White men are the least ethnocentric and most objective people on earth: thus are they doomed to disappear in the age of panmixia.

  281. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    I was on board until crime was described as benign. I even agree that the radical left is the best bet at this juncture though I imagine we have different definitions of radical left, I know we do with the definition of crime. Good try though.

    also, lmao Jews even took over the word semite. It’s not enough to be covered by the word racist, Jews need a special word that describes the unique and special nature of hating them. First as usury then as holohoax

  282. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    It’s interesting people spent so much time noticing how the radical left was crushed in America that no one noticed the homosexing of conservatism too. Republicans should at least try to chip away at California, and maybe in 40 years it’ll be red again, who knows? HAHAHAHAHA! Don’t worry capitalism will save the white race… or it won’t.. depends on the benign hand of the market HAHAHAHAHAHA!! Look, I don’t enjoy this any more than you do, but we must laugh at our folly.

    Ok, about the article. I don’t agree. No way. Ohio is not blue. Nor is North Carolina and Georgia.
    For all of Trump’s troubles, and yes he is a pile of shit, he still is more popular than some would believe. Michigan and Pennsylvania are tossups from now till election day, no one should be calling those, let alone a year away from election day.

    Merry CHRISTmas,
    –A regular Unz reader

  283. @Sam Coulton
    Coming from the individual whose every post concerns Jews or the deification of Hitler, that's rich.

    Obsessively anti-semitic schizophreniac retards are also found behind the wheel in the wreckage that is the right wing.

    That’s interesting coming from people who castrate 3 year olds due to transgender ideology and believe that male and female are social constructs

  284. @Sam Coulton
    The so-called "replacement of white people" has largely been the result of low white birth rates, not immigration. Whites would still be a majority (+75%) of this country if they maintained the birth rate they had in 1960, even with the immigration this country received.

    The low white birthrate is also what contributed to the election of "RINOS" and Democrats. The first measure of action is the impregnation of females, and when that's not happening repeatedly, the culture is inactive.

    Your logic doesn’t work. You are implying by saying “so called white replacement”, that white replacement isn’t happening. But then you state whites aren’t having enough children and also quote the immigration numbers. So you admit whites are being replaced by immigration then. Just because you have identified one of the pieces of the puzzle doesn’t mean the other pieces don’t exist and don’t make up an entire picture. Do you think maybe low white birth rates IS the mechanism itself? However the picture is made we do know what it looks like, White People are Objectively Being Replaced in their Homelands, Period, that is a fact not an opinion.

  285. @Flip
    Nixon would still have lost in the Electoral College if he had won Illinois and its 27 votes.


    John F. Kennedy
    Democratic
    303

    Richard M. Nixon
    Republican
    219

    Harry F. Byrd
    Democratic
    15

    Nixon would still have lost in the Electoral College if he had won Illinois and its 27 votes.

    Yes, the election would not have Flipped.

    Let the mostly Zionist – Kennedy haters, understand, John Fitzgerald Kennedy won the 1960 election. Nixon lost!

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=kennedy+wins+the+1960+election&qpvt=kennedy+wins+the+1960+election&FORM=IGRE

    One of thousands of links:

    President John F. Kennedy bravely served the American people, until the Zionist Oligarchs assassinated him and overthrew our last Constitutional Government, on November 22, 1963.

  286. @Sam Coulton
    As the smoke clears from the vehicular accident that was the right wing, we find in the driver's seat a smoldering pile of movie reviews, educated females, closeted homosexuals, limp-wristed ragdoll commentators and bloggers, awkward video streams and interviews in which people try to sound more amused and high brow than they really are, confused communications, misinterpretations of data, reality denial, a stubborn insistence on political action that is hopeless, and a disturbing obsession with the benign social phenomenon that is US black male criminality. A witch's brew of bad ideas, embarrassments, and should-not-have-beens.

    With so many seemingly hapless, clumsy, ineffectual individuals running the show here, one wonders if this charade was a conspiracy to dissipate as much male energy and attention as possible, or if right wing ideologies magnetically attract the world's most useless, incompetent people.

    In any case, historians will record that Donald Trump's election was simply the final death wail of a segment of humanity that is incapable ot helping itself and refuses to heed the advice of wiser men. The good news is that the extreme Left isn't bad and will make this country a better place to live in, as it has been doing for decades.

    When people ask you to drink the Kool Aid it doesn’t mean you have to drink the whole jug.
    In your Pozzed world view, when does the nation cease to function? Is it after 100 million Hispanic Dreamers cross the Rio Grande or when Californication destroys the nation’s economy?

  287. @SunBakedSuburb
    "Then I look at actual data (such as it is)."

    Survival plan time for those born with the wrong color and gender. My plan: eat my way to a 48 inch waist and moobs, shave twice a day, and identify as lesbian.

    Maintain 36′ waist, eat healthy, get colon checked, buy AR-15 (and know how to use it), take no shit.
    Pray to God.
    Kneel to no man.

  288. @dc.sunsets
    All this is meaningless.

    It's kabuki theater. If the Left (the Deep State) gets fully back into power, the S will HTF.

    It's a given. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me in the least that this was already war-gamed, and that the vertical, 10 year market rallies (bonds and stocks), coming after a 9 year bear market (2000-2009) and a stunningly vertical 1974/82-2000 moon-shot, will reverse a year from now (+/-) and that the Ruling Class' behavior (doubling down on crushing "Deplorables' Dissent") will combine with rapidly growing economic hardship to set off a very real, very bloody revolution in the USA.

    Damn it, what is anyone looking at?!

    Run a graph of the DJIA from 1928 to now. Look at the St. Louis Fed's FRED graph of TCMDO (total credit market debt outstanding.) READ Codevilla's essay "Our Revolution's Logic." https://americanmind.org/essays/our-revolutions-logic/

    Then try, just try to tell me that a year from now, if Trump wins reelection and the Ruling Elite goes even more to war, or if the Demoncrat gets elected and near-literally unleashes the Dogs of War on MAGA-hat-wearing foes, that we'll all just be hammering our keyboards while sipping coffee like always.

    We're heading for a cataclysm, and the election is borderline irrelevant.

    All the analysts are insider hacks. A lot of ‘outsiders’ are insider hacks without knowing it.
    They can’t read the sweep of History.
    People voted for MAGA not Peak Jew. DJT IS PEAK JEW. The man is the most philo-semitic President we’ve ever had. It will be the basis of the ‘Great Betrayal’. Historic White America votes for a white guy who turns out to be a closet Jew, gives Israel everything they want and then takes America, reluctantly, to war in Iran in his second term. The writing is on the Wall (that has not been built).
    When Middle America realizes that no matter who they vote for they get shafted is when the AR-15’s come into play. Jew York City has no concept of what they are playing with. They think they can ‘paper’ things over, yet again, shaft whitey and manipulate the blacks. They don’t get how exposed and completely naked they are. They are on tv every night shredding what little is left of their credibility to a smaller and smaller market share.

    The Jews have created this mess. They will eventually be held accountable and the best we can hope for is that they leave peacefully and legally but I wouldn’t lay money on it. The Jew thinks they can squeeze more juice out of America. This is their never ending insanity. They are incapable of saying ‘enough’ and walking away. They have a large audience of Frau Trabman’s who are deluded enough to think they can do no wrong. This has been their traditional echo chamber. Even this, however, is crumbling.

    The Jew elite response so far has been to double down, demand more censorship and demonize their enemies. Real smart. Then again, all the elites have other passports, right?

  289. @Thomasina
    "Instead the Republican Party is for the Financiers and the Warmongers."

    And the Democrats aren't?

    Who went into Libya and overthrew a sovereign government? Who said, "We came, we saw, he died" after being told Gaddafi had just been murdered? Who took Libya's gold? Who shipped Libya's weapons on to Syria? The Democrats.

    Who went into Syria and tried to overthrow a sovereign country? The Democrats.

    Who orchestated the Maidan coup in Ukraine? The Democrats.

    Who started the Russiagate hoax? The Democrats.

    Who started the Ukrainegate hoax? The Democrats.

    Who personally withheld funds from Ukraine until an investigation into Burisma Holdings was stopped, a company that his own son (with no oil and gas experience) was earning approximately $80,000.00/month as a board member? Joe Biden, a Democrat.

    Who bailed out the Wall Street bankers in 2008? Barack Obama and the Democrats.

    Who made sure not one banker saw any jail time? Eric Holder and the Democrats.

    Who was using her own servers (that she knew was unlawful) in order to hide her pay-for-play scheme with foreign governments, money that ended up being funneled into the Clinton Foundation? Hillary Clinton.

    I could go on and on. BOTH parties are beholden to Wall Street and the warmongers. The Democrat sold out the little person decades ago.

    I truly believe that Trump would have closed the borders had he not been stopped by both the Democrats and those Republicans who are beholden to corporate interests.

    I am amazed that people are not better informed.

    Yes. Democrats serve the oligarchy just as much as the Republicans, if not more.

  290. @Blinky Bill
    Looks electable to me.

    https://i.redd.it/fj2g7gi370o31.png

    Yang Gang 2020 !!!

    This next debate will be pivotal to his campaign. Make or break, he needs to push for more speaking time regardless of how the moderators behave towards him.

    A pedophile and an Asian geek who wants to hand out checks to basement dwelling millenials?
    Really?
    I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
    That picture looks more like a VHS tape jacket from the ’80’s than a political ad from 2019.
    Just laughable.

  291. @dc.sunsets
    At some point in this absurd tragedy (in which we live), tomorrow will not be contiguous with today.

    At some point, it will become inescapably apparent that the Rubicon was, in fact, already crossed.

    Do you, I, or anyone think history is over, and that the future is simply a continuous series of iPhone revisions? That what we read of history occurred on a different planet, its participants utterly alien to us today?

    The people who RUN this country are 100% zealots to a religion that considers non-zealots to be utterly loathsome. They presuppose their own goodness and believe it is their right, by all that's good and proper, to destroy those they loathe.

    This isn't about change. It isn't about reeducation. It sure as hell isn't about persuasion. It's about making those you loathe GROVEL at your feet as you kick them, demanding they beg you TO KICK THEM AGAIN!

    Angelo Codevilla's writings over the last few years are a window into reality no one else seems to grasp (not even he does.) This is literally a religious war, and those who believe they've already won deem it their right to jump up and down on their vanquished enemies.

    I used to think the democrat talking points were just campaign rhetoric. I no longer think that view is tenable. These people really do think they are Masters Of The Universe, and they really do think anyone not in lock-step with them is theirs to torture at will, indulging in the PURE JOY of doing so. Look at them! They are basically in the throes of ecstasy describing how they'll make everyone do what they demand.

    They'll "ban guns" not to decrease crime but to hurt those who like guns (and like self-reliance.) They'll demand kids get video instruction on how to do anal sex because it HURTS those who don't want their kids exposed to depravity. This isn't about making the world better, it's literally about destroying or debauching what their enemies love, whatever that may be.

    2020 is the year it all comes into focus. Wait and watch.

    [For the record, I don't think the near-literal demons who run this circus have the numbers of minions necessary to actually perform all these feats of Terrorism on the public. There aren't enough True Believer Cops to pull it off. But in attempting to do so, the little cohesion left in this country will evaporate, leaving only enmity and rage to animate people's actions.]

    Nailed it.
    The so-called ‘progressives’ are destroyers. They BELIEVE.
    This is the miracle of socialism and communism. Belief systems. Hence, the attack on Christianity. TBS, Jewish belief systems.
    Wall Street is a Socialist Jew as well. They want, and got, the American people as their guarantors. Now it is Mutually Assured Destruction.
    They’ll try to do an Argentina, burn it down then buy it back at 10%. I don’t think it will work. They would need to spread it to China and Russia who have backed their paper with Gold.
    Who will they get to pay next time?
    There won’t be anyone.
    Revolution, Civil War.

  292. @Thomasina
    You're the one who is way in over his head. Horowitz does not have subpoena power. All he could do was interview FBI officials - that's it! But Barr, he does have subpoena power and he has been investigating and interviewing witnesses, along with Durham. They even traveled to Italy, and I think they even went to the Ukraine.

    My understanding is that aid money sent to Ukraine (U.S. taxpayer money) was being laundered out through various countries (Lithuania, I believe, and Cypress was another one) and then out into shell companies in tax havens like Panama. It's going to be an interesting paper trail.

    Imagine if they start looking under the rocks, like the Clinton pay-for-play Foundation, or the Uranium One deal where Hillary sold off 20% of U.S. uranium to Russia once a certain sum was deposited into the Clinton Foundation and once Bill Clinton got his $500,000.00 Russia speaking fee, or the Biden's in Ukraine.

    Russiagate and Ukrainegate have been all about getting rid of Trump before this all surfaces. As Hillary said to one of her aides during the campaign, "If they ever find out, we'll all be hanged."

    Ever since Trump got elected (and even before he was elected) there has been an attempted coup to overthrow a duly-elected President of the United States.

    If you're okay with this, then have at it.

    “You’re the one who is way in over his head. Horowitz does not have subpoena power.”

    That would be a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made that reference.

    “My understanding is that aid money sent to Ukraine (U.S. taxpayer money) was being laundered out through various countries (Lithuania, I believe, and Cypress was another one) and then out into shell companies in tax havens like Panama. It’s going to be an interesting paper trail.”

    Great! Let that information, if there is this “paper trail”, have it come out into the open. Of course, since you are interested in laundering and shell companies, then you have no objections to Trump releasing his tax returns.

    “Imagine if they start looking under the rocks, like the Clinton pay-for-play Foundation, or the Uranium One deal where Hillary sold off 20% of U.S. uranium to Russia once a certain sum was deposited into the Clinton Foundation and once Bill Clinton got his $500,000.00 Russia speaking fee, or the Biden’s in Ukraine.”

    That already has been vetted. But, no problem, let the facts come out. Again, since you are so interested in corruption, then you have no issues with the continuation of the investigations into Trump finances.

    “Russiagate and Ukrainegate have been all about getting rid of Trump before this all surfaces. As Hillary said to one of her aides during the campaign, “If they ever find out, we’ll all be hanged.””

    And Trump said to a friend (I’m paraphrasing here), “If Manafort ever squeals, I’m done for”.

    “Ever since Trump got elected (and even before he was elected) there has been an attempted coup to overthrow a duly-elected President of the United States.”

    I didn’t realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter.

    If you’re okay with this, then have at it.

    • Replies: @Thomasina
    "I didn’t realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter."

    What was the "intent"? Was it to hold people accountable, or was it an attempted coup?

    When the FBI went to the FISA Court, they based their evidence on the Steele dossier, which they ALREADY knew was unverified and fraudulent. They actually lied by OMISSION to the FISA Court by purposely withholding a crucial fact: that it was the DNC who paid for the dossier in the first place. Had the judge known these material facts, I'm confident he would have ruled differently.

    Seditious conspiracy:

    "If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take, or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof, they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both."

    People need to go to jail for their attempted coup of a duly-elected President.

    Corvinus, I see you have 57 posts out of an approximate 300, 1/5th of the total number of posts. That's like a "one-man show" or something. Delusion is a dangerous thing, for a person and for a country.

    If you're okay with that, then have at it.
  293. @Sin City Milla
    It is indeed very strange how American white males absolutely refuse to help each other, or even be civil to each other, unlike in almost every other country. They flock to join any organisation which has a woman at its head, but run like heck rather than cooperate with other white males. I can only assume they are all infected with self defeating individualism, or are shaking in their boots that someone might call them racist. They will just keep losing until they finally decide to work together.

    “It is indeed very strange how American white males absolutely refuse to help each other, or even be civil to each other, unlike in almost every other country.”

    Actually, today’s white American men are quite amenable to one another.

  294. @Sin City Milla
    I live in a large Southern city. Republicans had to sue to stop the local county clerk, a Dem, from connecting the county's voting machines to the internet, which would have been a violation of state law. After several California counties 'discovered' boxes of votes which reversed close races in 2016, I have zero confidence that the elections in 2020 will be fair or reliable. Not even purple fingers can fix the fraud that will be unleashed.

    Check the site blackboxvoting.org ran by Bev Harris, all voting machines can be programed to give the desired results, voting especially for POTUS is a joke and state and county elections are becoming suspect, here in Montana in the 2018 race for the senate, the results were in my opinion suspect as the winner closed a 5000 plus gap in an area where the results were suspect as the vote was highly irregular, but nothing was said!

    As Stalin was supposed to have said, it is not who votes that counts but who counts the votes.

    • Replies: @Sin City Milla
    Thank you. I will check it.
  295. @freedom-cat
    Michelle Obomber may be on the Democratic ticket, even if it's as the VP.

    She's weird. But she's been popping up a lot in mainstream media, and always getting her digs in.

    The final candidate for the Dems will be determined by a small group of wealthy oligarchs who operate quietly in the background.

    There's really nothing to vote for when it comes to Donny boy. So, the masses will be directed to the democratic candidate. The masses are deluded into thinking they have choices and that they are making those choices.....not so.

    Do you honestly believe Americans will support a trans-sexual politician who is closeted?
    I don’t.
    Too many Americans have seen the tapes of Big Mike Obama and his swinging thing.
    Americans have lots of reasons to repudiate the Democrats: Russia Hoax, impeachment hoax, Ukraine corruption, trans-kids and Drag Queen-pedo grooming story hour, etc ad nauseum.
    The Democrats have shown the world who they truly are. They are the squad. Climate change, social revolution, gender insanity. People see. They know. Many are quickly getting up to speed and the Nose is outing himself with all their shrill screams of ‘anti-semite’ and demands for censorship.
    This current insanity won’t last. It is a death cult. We’ve seen 50 years of Cultural Marxism now and people hate it. They see the censorship and they don’t like it. The unwinding of peak jew insanity has already begun. The neo-conservative Jewish capture of the Republican Party is unwinding. The Jewish Democrat city-state mafia corruption has peaked. There is nowhere for it to go. Identity politics is a death trap and people know it. All the air fresheners in the world can’t kill the smell.
    The stench is making people retch. The people are beginning to cry out, ‘Enough’.
    This won’t go away when Trump leaves office.
    The cat is out of the bag.

  296. @Corvinus
    "HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard."

    And yet he has not delivered on building a wall or deporting those illegals.

    "Regarding Ukraine – you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won’t get behind."

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven't been paying attention.

    Privately, a number are on board. Publicly, they will deny it.

    "The same with lies – you aren’t so naive to think that BO didn’t lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C’mon."

    That is a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made those assertions.

    "As usual, it’s a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land."

    We assume that Biden will get the nomination. And, its worser vs. worse.

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven’t been paying attention.
    ———————————————————————————–
    I’ve been paying attention. You haven’t.
    The Democrats have nothing. No Quid Pro Quo. No high crimes and misdemeanors.

    If they send this to the Senate Schiff will no longer be able to manipulate the process and ALL the Democrat dirt in Ukraine (remember they spent $5 Billion spreading love their via Nulan, Kerry, McStain et al) will come out. Barrack Obama will be destroyed. Joe Biden will be destroyed. Many other career and legacies will be destroyed (senior Intelligence, Holder and HRC-this time, she won’t get a free pass).
    Trump is holding very strong cards.
    Don’t mistake Pelosi’s drunken bluster at a press conference for reality. The Democrat’s are sitting in a world of hurt. The Republicans are not. They have been cleaning house for years. Eric Cantor, gone. Paul Ryan, gone. McStain ‘passed’ away. Bush Sr. ‘passed’ away. A long list of Rino’s have been sent packing while Dem’s have doubled down.
    Don’t forget, Clapper PUBLICLY pointed the finger at Barry O on network television!

    Trump has 2020 in the bag.
    The only question is, will he actually use his mandate to restore America or will it be more BS and Jew pandering.

  297. @Corvinus
    "Actually, we have been paying attention."

    Not to the immutable facts.

    "Even more so to your ridiculous posts about the Mueller probe and everything he was going to uncover."

    "Your track record in believing stupid things is well documented."

    You mean like the rule of law? Presidents prior to Trump did not engage in his particular action–using underlings through backchannels to get information about political rivals. Moreover, if it is so “above board”, i.e. commonplace, why stonewall the investigation? Why would a plethora of witnesses who are privy to past presidential behavior and the law testify in detail how Trump’s conduct is beyond the pale? And, why are Trump senior aides further restricting the number of administration officials allowed to listen to the President’s phone calls with foreign leaders? How is that transparent?

    And GOP interest in listening to the CIA began and ended—apparently—with Carter Page. The same Page investigated by the FBI for being a Russian spy BEFORE Trump announced a presidential run because he gave info to Russian spies, admitted to it, and called himself a “Kremlin adviser”.

    Indeed, the dossier perfectly replicated at least two conversations Page secretly had with Kremlin officials and lied about on national TV when he returned to the United States. The dossier’s replication of those conversations was in fact one of its best indicia of reliability. The FBI literally investigated Page as a possible Russian agent just 2 years before the presidential campaign began.

    So based on the testimonial and documentary evidence, it’s clear that Trump sought to solicit bribes from Poroshenko before he even knew that Zelensky would be president and he’d try to solicit bribes from him instead.

    The fact of the matter is that the transcript is prima facie quid pro quo. Zelensky now states blocking aid was wrong. The Ukrainians knew that the aid was being held up on the day of that call. A Ukrainian prosecutor general started the investigation of Biden on Guiliani’s demand in April 2019 at the latest. And a plethora of witnesses confirm the prima facie quid pro quo.

    Here is the time line.
    January: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    February: Rudy in Ukraine seeking Biden dirt.
    March: Rudy gets Biden dirt to Solomon via Lutsenko.
    April: Lutsenko recants the Biden dirt he gave Solomon.

    It wasn’t about Trump trying to stamp out ALL corruption in the Ukraine, it was about trying to get information about a potential political opponent.

    Democrats know BRIBERY fits these facts perfectly, as they put the elements of soliciting a bribe (per the federal criminal statute for bribery) at the very beginning of the abuse of power article. However, when Republicans complain they have no idea what conduct is being described, they know full well it is BRIBERY, but the Democrats dare not say it repeatedly and openly because they want to avoid the word in an election year.

    On top of it all, you have Governor Mike Huckabee who is trying to move the Overton Window through this tweet–I’ll be on @seanhannity 2nite @FoxNews at 9pm ET and will explain how @realDonaldTrump will be eligible for a 3rd term due to the illegal attempts by Comey, Dems, and media, et al attempting to oust him as @POTUS so that’s why I was named to head up the 2024 re-election.

    So Huckabee already supports a third term; is “testing the waters” using Overton-Window theory; or is “drafting” off the unconstitutional, unpatriotic rhetoric of actual radicals to get attention.

    Remember, IG Michael Horowtiz: “We did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that indicated political bias or improper motivation influencing his decision to open the investigation.”

    Yet, Bill Barr is having a conniption fit, despite saying prior to the report that he would accept its findings regardless. LOL.

    When you drink the kool aid it’s not necessary to drink the whole jug.
    That was the steamiest, pile of analysis I’ve seen.
    You just can’t place a dollar value on this kind of indoctrination. The Media Moguls invest wisely. They’ve got you believing white is black and up is down.
    The process of money corrupting politics has been an issue for decades. Campaign finance reform could have been done in the ’80’s but DC agreed to not have real rules.
    Now we are here.
    The Democrats used $5 billion in Ukraine for nefarious purpose. Everyone wanted in on Ukraine as it was clear the U.S. was ‘buying’ the country. Natural gas, wheat basket, manufacturing base, well-educated people, maybe some mineral resources. The Jews in Wall St, D.C. and Soros himself wanted in. Lots of grease going around.
    Trump knows the Dem’s have tons to hide so they’ve cooked up the Impeachment hoax, just like the Russia Hoax, and you have swallowed it: hook, line and sinker.
    Don’t you get tired of swallowing?

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    You haven't addressed anything of substance here. Do you need a primer on discourse?
  298. @Corvinus
    "You’re the one who is way in over his head. Horowitz does not have subpoena power."

    That would be a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made that reference.

    "My understanding is that aid money sent to Ukraine (U.S. taxpayer money) was being laundered out through various countries (Lithuania, I believe, and Cypress was another one) and then out into shell companies in tax havens like Panama. It’s going to be an interesting paper trail."

    Great! Let that information, if there is this "paper trail", have it come out into the open. Of course, since you are interested in laundering and shell companies, then you have no objections to Trump releasing his tax returns.

    "Imagine if they start looking under the rocks, like the Clinton pay-for-play Foundation, or the Uranium One deal where Hillary sold off 20% of U.S. uranium to Russia once a certain sum was deposited into the Clinton Foundation and once Bill Clinton got his $500,000.00 Russia speaking fee, or the Biden’s in Ukraine."

    That already has been vetted. But, no problem, let the facts come out. Again, since you are so interested in corruption, then you have no issues with the continuation of the investigations into Trump finances.

    "Russiagate and Ukrainegate have been all about getting rid of Trump before this all surfaces. As Hillary said to one of her aides during the campaign, “If they ever find out, we’ll all be hanged.”"

    And Trump said to a friend (I'm paraphrasing here), "If Manafort ever squeals, I'm done for".

    "Ever since Trump got elected (and even before he was elected) there has been an attempted coup to overthrow a duly-elected President of the United States."

    I didn't realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter.

    If you’re okay with this, then have at it.

    “I didn’t realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter.”

    What was the “intent”? Was it to hold people accountable, or was it an attempted coup?

    When the FBI went to the FISA Court, they based their evidence on the Steele dossier, which they ALREADY knew was unverified and fraudulent. They actually lied by OMISSION to the FISA Court by purposely withholding a crucial fact: that it was the DNC who paid for the dossier in the first place. Had the judge known these material facts, I’m confident he would have ruled differently.

    Seditious conspiracy:

    “If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take, or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof, they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.”

    People need to go to jail for their attempted coup of a duly-elected President.

    Corvinus, I see you have 57 posts out of an approximate 300, 1/5th of the total number of posts. That’s like a “one-man show” or something. Delusion is a dangerous thing, for a person and for a country.

    If you’re okay with that, then have at it.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "What was the “intent”? Was it to hold people accountable, or was it an attempted coup?"

    LOL, the efforts made by officials in our government to hold Trump and his administration officials and/or advisors is NOT meant to overthrow the government. Rather, the intent is to ensure that our government is not sold to the highest bidder and that our elections are not compromised.

    "When the FBI went to the FISA Court, they based their evidence on the Steele dossier, which they ALREADY knew was unverified and fraudulent."

    Actually, the Steele Dossier was a compilation of raw intelligence data, with a great deal of it being complete and accurate. The man responsible for it has a stellar reputation for honesty and integrity. Naturally, those who oppose his efforts to expose corruption will attack his character.

    The dossier contains multiple allegations, some of which have been publicly verified, others unverified, but none have been disproven, according to James Clapper and Fox News host Shepard Smith, with Smith stating: "Some of the assertions in the dossier have been confirmed. Other parts are unconfirmed. None of the dossier, to Fox News's knowledge, has been disproven." In some cases, public verification is hindered because information is classified.

    "They actually lied by OMISSION to the FISA Court by purposely withholding a crucial fact: that it was the DNC who paid for the dossier in the first place."

    Actually, the leaders of the conservative news outlet Washington Free Beacon hired a private intelligence company, Fusion GPS, to conduct research into the candidates, including Trump. Later on, Fusion GPS approached the law firm Perkins Coie, which represents the Democratic National Committee, to continue with this effort.

    "People need to go to jail for their attempted coup of a duly-elected President."

    Except it's not an attempted coup or an actual coup. Again, you are being bamboozled.
  299. “Road accidents are almost all reported. But only a portion of black crime is reported. We’ll never know how much because most victims believe it would be a waste of time since nothing would be done”

    I would agree with the articles author that criminal conduct is not benign. Nor is as prevelant as advertised. Your comment is categorically false. The tallying of crime and blacks has a long sordid history, if anything the numbers previously were distortions of reality not reflections.

    Though I will caveat this: lots of people don’t report criminal conduct regardless of skin color. And if everyone reported every act of crime, the entire rolls across the board would tally higher.

  300. ““I didn’t realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter.”

    There’s no crime to hold the president accountable for.

    And your comment about what President Trump said with respect to Mr. Manafort is mighty slim, since Mr. Manafort’s issue is long past done. But more importantly, even that statement was correct, it is entirely without context. It is disappointing to read these comments and watch the members of Congress who are black lack any sense of discrimination on the charges in the impeachment indictment. One would that if anyone was appalled about the malisciously prosecutions and method of blacks would be the first in line to object.

    The impeachment is a political tissue paper tiger.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "There’s no crime to hold the president accountable for."

    Actually, there are several, had you been paying close attention.

    "And your comment about what President Trump said with respect to Mr. Manafort is mighty slim, since Mr. Manafort’s issue is long past done."

    Actually, it is ongoing, as his associations have enabled investigators to dig deeper into those (shady) relationships.

  301. @Jay Fink
    Florida voters giving convicted felons the right to vote was upsetting to me for many reasons. I heard it was wildly popular among conservative Christians. Back in the early 80s when the Moral Majority existed the Christian right was concerned about a LOT of different issues related to moral decay. Today the Christian right seems solely focused on abortion. They aren't smart enough to connect the dots...felons voting=more Democrats=more liberal abortion laws.

    The other thing that bothers me about this is it shows how conservatives have drifted to the left without realizing it. 20 years ago hardly anyone would be sympathetic to giving felons more rights. Even many Democrats would have thought felons voting was way out there. Today most everyone (except myself it seems) has a pro criminal agenda (criminal justice reform, no death penalty, felons voting, forcing companies to hire felons etc.).

    You’re not alone my friend, nor are you crazy. Retardicans have always had, to put it mildly, questionable judgement regarding their own survival.

    Lowering the voting age to 18, an honor which should’ve been limited to veterans, was foolhardy. Voting age 25 allowed young folk to experience the joys of taxation for a few years first.

    Worse than Reagan’s amnesty cave-in (did he really trust shitlibs to honor an agreement after being one?) was no Retardican in the 80s fighting–or at least warning!–of the abhorrent anarchy of birthright citizenship for illegals. As Ann Coulter has pointed out many times, this isn’t even established law.

    There’s little use trying to ponder any Retardican being pro-voting rights for felons. Perhaps some actuarial dweeb deep in the bowels of Elephant Inc. said, “There aren’t that many felons, plus it will look like we’re reaching out to minorities!” (This in a time Elephant Inc. won’t reach out to its own base of White Guys.)

    A recent columnist summed up the Uniparty perfectly: “Democrats promote a radical agenda, Republicans offer token opposition then throw the fight.”

  302. Why would voters vote for Biden, somebody who obviously has little brain capacity left. Why not Mike Bloomberg?
    I don’t believe these polls.

  303. @Flip
    Nixon would still have lost in the Electoral College if he had won Illinois and its 27 votes.


    John F. Kennedy
    Democratic
    303

    Richard M. Nixon
    Republican
    219

    Harry F. Byrd
    Democratic
    15

    Had short reply here on Flip’s comment- this morning. It hung around as, “Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm.” – for quite a while. Then disappeared.

    • Replies: @Durruti

    Had short reply here on Flip’s comment- this morning. It hung around as, “Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm.” – for quite a while. Then disappeared.
     
    It appeared (#286) - near 12 hours later. No big deal.

    Nice open discussion of our 'elections' & Epigon's article. Free expression is nice. What little we have makes it more valuable.

    God bless! Merry Christmas to all!
  304. @Audacious Epigone
    Polling tends to find between 20%-35% of the population amenable to the idea. It's definitely much higher than 1%. In California, polling showed support for Calexit at around 20%. That was three years ago.

    There is a clear generational angle to it--young people are much more open to the idea than older people are.

    The idea that support for political dissolution indicates support for a white ethnostate is a non sequitur. The first secessionist movement in the US was in Massachusetts for what are conventionally considered leftwing reasons.

    Polling tends to find between 20%-35% of the population amenable to the idea. It’s definitely much higher than 1%. In California, polling showed support for Calexit at around 20%. That was three years ago.

    Then you explain to people what the costs are likely to be and what the full ramifications will be, and watch that support plummet to around 1%. Most people have never given any serious thought to the actual implications of secession.

  305. @Jay Fink
    Florida voters giving convicted felons the right to vote was upsetting to me for many reasons. I heard it was wildly popular among conservative Christians. Back in the early 80s when the Moral Majority existed the Christian right was concerned about a LOT of different issues related to moral decay. Today the Christian right seems solely focused on abortion. They aren't smart enough to connect the dots...felons voting=more Democrats=more liberal abortion laws.

    The other thing that bothers me about this is it shows how conservatives have drifted to the left without realizing it. 20 years ago hardly anyone would be sympathetic to giving felons more rights. Even many Democrats would have thought felons voting was way out there. Today most everyone (except myself it seems) has a pro criminal agenda (criminal justice reform, no death penalty, felons voting, forcing companies to hire felons etc.).

    You’re not alone my friend, nor are you crazy. Retardicans have always had, to put it mildly, questionable judgement regarding their own survival.

    Lowering the voting age to 18, an honor which should’ve been limited to veterans, was foolhardy. Voting age 25 allowed young folk to experience the joys of taxation for a few years first.

    Worse than Reagan’s amnesty cave-in (did he really trust shitlibs to honor an agreement after being one?) was not a single Retardican in the 1980s fighting–or at least warning!–of the abhorrent anarchy of birthright citizenship for illegals. As Ann Coulter has pointed out many times, this isn’t even established law.

    There’s little use trying to ponder any Retardican being pro-voting rights for felons. Perhaps some actuarial dweeb deep in the bowels of Elephant Inc. said, “There aren’t that many felons, plus it will look like we’re reaching out to minorities!” (This in a time Elephant Inc. won’t reach out to its own base of White Guys.)

    A recent columnist summed up the Uniparty perfectly: “Democrats promote a radical agenda, Republicans offer token opposition then throw the fight.”

  306. @Durruti
    Had short reply here on Flip's comment- this morning. It hung around as, "Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm." - for quite a while. Then disappeared.

    Had short reply here on Flip’s comment- this morning. It hung around as, “Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm.” – for quite a while. Then disappeared.

    It appeared (#286) – near 12 hours later. No big deal.

    Nice open discussion of our ‘elections’ & Epigon’s article. Free expression is nice. What little we have makes it more valuable.

    God bless! Merry Christmas to all!

  307. @Desert Fox
    Check the site blackboxvoting.org ran by Bev Harris, all voting machines can be programed to give the desired results, voting especially for POTUS is a joke and state and county elections are becoming suspect, here in Montana in the 2018 race for the senate, the results were in my opinion suspect as the winner closed a 5000 plus gap in an area where the results were suspect as the vote was highly irregular, but nothing was said!

    As Stalin was supposed to have said, it is not who votes that counts but who counts the votes.

    Thank you. I will check it.

  308. @dfordoom

    No, PoCs would not vote in greater numbers for the Repubs if it were explicitly the white peoples’ party.
     
    Do you think maybe there's a tiny chance that the problem facing the Republicans is that they are explicitly the Rich People's Party?

    And that Trump's problem is that he has to a large extent confirmed this impression?

    Maybe race isn't quite as big an issue as you think. Why on earth would any non-rich person want to vote Republican?

    Of course it is. It will either change or die. Or perhaps both.

  309. @MarkinLA
    You don't have to get a majority of blacks to do a lot of damage to the Democrats. If Trump got 20% (and I am not predicting) then it would be a Trump blowout in the Electoral College.

    It would sure help. But it won’t happen (prediction).

  310. @Anon
    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/10/trumpslide-2020-cometh.html

    Trump still has a shot.

    There are very smart people who see him winning.

    But even if he wins it just delays the diversity Communist revolution.

    But such data—as contrasted with smart peoples’ musings—as I’ve seen suggests the opposite. VD is the first thing I read in the morning, because his optimism helps keep me going, but I don’t believe everything that he says.

  311. @steinbergfeldwitzcohen
    When you drink the kool aid it's not necessary to drink the whole jug.
    That was the steamiest, pile of analysis I've seen.
    You just can't place a dollar value on this kind of indoctrination. The Media Moguls invest wisely. They've got you believing white is black and up is down.
    The process of money corrupting politics has been an issue for decades. Campaign finance reform could have been done in the '80's but DC agreed to not have real rules.
    Now we are here.
    The Democrats used $5 billion in Ukraine for nefarious purpose. Everyone wanted in on Ukraine as it was clear the U.S. was 'buying' the country. Natural gas, wheat basket, manufacturing base, well-educated people, maybe some mineral resources. The Jews in Wall St, D.C. and Soros himself wanted in. Lots of grease going around.
    Trump knows the Dem's have tons to hide so they've cooked up the Impeachment hoax, just like the Russia Hoax, and you have swallowed it: hook, line and sinker.
    Don't you get tired of swallowing?

    You haven’t addressed anything of substance here. Do you need a primer on discourse?

  312. @EliteCommInc.
    "“I didn’t realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter.”


    There's no crime to hold the president accountable for.


    And your comment about what President Trump said with respect to Mr. Manafort is mighty slim, since Mr. Manafort's issue is long past done. But more importantly, even that statement was correct, it is entirely without context. It is disappointing to read these comments and watch the members of Congress who are black lack any sense of discrimination on the charges in the impeachment indictment. One would that if anyone was appalled about the malisciously prosecutions and method of blacks would be the first in line to object.


    The impeachment is a political tissue paper tiger.

    “There’s no crime to hold the president accountable for.”

    Actually, there are several, had you been paying close attention.

    “And your comment about what President Trump said with respect to Mr. Manafort is mighty slim, since Mr. Manafort’s issue is long past done.”

    Actually, it is ongoing, as his associations have enabled investigators to dig deeper into those (shady) relationships.

  313. @Corvinus
    "The fact that Page was a CIA asset and the FBI lied invalidates every moronic thing you posted about him."

    Doesn't work that way, friend. Horowitz testified that he has never in his career as DOJ IG, across hundreds and hundreds of investigations, encountered a situation in which officials at the DOJ insisted the DOJ engaged in MORE misconduct than the DOJ IG found. Until Barr. Until this ONE case. It is also note that Page pled the Fifth rather than turn over any documents to the House or Senate. The CIA also gave out information that there were compromising tapes on Trump.

    You're way in over your head here. Quit while you are behind.

    Yet, none of the nonsense you barf out made it to the “Articles of Impeachment”. Just like all the other fantasies you produced while the Mueller fantasy was going, you read some idiots website and pretend it is true. Who is it this time “Seth whateverthehellhisnameisagain”

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Yet, none of the nonsense you barf out made it to the “Articles of Impeachment”."

    Actually, the evidence found in the investigations buttresses the two articles created by the House.

    "Just like all the other fantasies you produced while the Mueller fantasy was going,..."

    Not fantasy, reality.

    "you read some idiots website and pretend it is true. Who is it this time “Seth
    whateverthehellhisnameisagain”

    LOL. Seth Abramson has written two best selling books which outlines the entire sordid affair. They are well sourced. Educate yourself on the matter.
  314. @Thomasina
    "I didn’t realize that holding people accountable to the rule of law = attempted coup. You have a strange way of looking at this important matter."

    What was the "intent"? Was it to hold people accountable, or was it an attempted coup?

    When the FBI went to the FISA Court, they based their evidence on the Steele dossier, which they ALREADY knew was unverified and fraudulent. They actually lied by OMISSION to the FISA Court by purposely withholding a crucial fact: that it was the DNC who paid for the dossier in the first place. Had the judge known these material facts, I'm confident he would have ruled differently.

    Seditious conspiracy:

    "If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take, or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof, they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both."

    People need to go to jail for their attempted coup of a duly-elected President.

    Corvinus, I see you have 57 posts out of an approximate 300, 1/5th of the total number of posts. That's like a "one-man show" or something. Delusion is a dangerous thing, for a person and for a country.

    If you're okay with that, then have at it.

    “What was the “intent”? Was it to hold people accountable, or was it an attempted coup?”

    LOL, the efforts made by officials in our government to hold Trump and his administration officials and/or advisors is NOT meant to overthrow the government. Rather, the intent is to ensure that our government is not sold to the highest bidder and that our elections are not compromised.

    “When the FBI went to the FISA Court, they based their evidence on the Steele dossier, which they ALREADY knew was unverified and fraudulent.”

    Actually, the Steele Dossier was a compilation of raw intelligence data, with a great deal of it being complete and accurate. The man responsible for it has a stellar reputation for honesty and integrity. Naturally, those who oppose his efforts to expose corruption will attack his character.

    The dossier contains multiple allegations, some of which have been publicly verified, others unverified, but none have been disproven, according to James Clapper and Fox News host Shepard Smith, with Smith stating: “Some of the assertions in the dossier have been confirmed. Other parts are unconfirmed. None of the dossier, to Fox News’s knowledge, has been disproven.” In some cases, public verification is hindered because information is classified.

    “They actually lied by OMISSION to the FISA Court by purposely withholding a crucial fact: that it was the DNC who paid for the dossier in the first place.”

    Actually, the leaders of the conservative news outlet Washington Free Beacon hired a private intelligence company, Fusion GPS, to conduct research into the candidates, including Trump. Later on, Fusion GPS approached the law firm Perkins Coie, which represents the Democratic National Committee, to continue with this effort.

    “People need to go to jail for their attempted coup of a duly-elected President.”

    Except it’s not an attempted coup or an actual coup. Again, you are being bamboozled.

  315. @MarkinLA
    Yet, none of the nonsense you barf out made it to the "Articles of Impeachment". Just like all the other fantasies you produced while the Mueller fantasy was going, you read some idiots website and pretend it is true. Who is it this time "Seth whateverthehellhisnameisagain"

    “Yet, none of the nonsense you barf out made it to the “Articles of Impeachment”.”

    Actually, the evidence found in the investigations buttresses the two articles created by the House.

    “Just like all the other fantasies you produced while the Mueller fantasy was going,…”

    Not fantasy, reality.

    “you read some idiots website and pretend it is true. Who is it this time “Seth
    whateverthehellhisnameisagain”

    LOL. Seth Abramson has written two best selling books which outlines the entire sordid affair. They are well sourced. Educate yourself on the matter.

  316. @nsa
    "Leave a Reply - Your comment will appear after approval from the schoolmarm. Racial slurs, dehumanizing language, personal identifying language, spamming, advocating illegal activity, or excessive profanity will not be approved. Blah blah blah.
    Reread your Mcluhan. Nothing posted here makes the slightest difference.......just vapid ephemeral political porn for the bored. The content is not the message, so why bother with the censorship stuff?

    A proper decorum is its own reward.

    Also, some quite influential people read this. We want them to be able to share it with other influential people.

  317. @Corvinus
    "HRC promised us amnesty for millions of illegals in her first one hundred days. DJT was an easy choice in that regard."

    And yet he has not delivered on building a wall or deporting those illegals.

    "Regarding Ukraine – you gotta be kidding me? An absurdly flimsy set of charges that even the never Trumpers in the Senate won’t get behind."

    Actually, it is a robust set of charges. You haven't been paying attention.

    Privately, a number are on board. Publicly, they will deny it.

    "The same with lies – you aren’t so naive to think that BO didn’t lie? We know GWB lied about WMDs in Iraq. C’mon."

    That is a strawman. I never directly nor indirectly made those assertions.

    "As usual, it’s a choice between worse and worser. Biden might have won in 16 but the absolute lunacy of the modern Democratic Party is pulling Joe Kinnock Biden into crazy land."

    We assume that Biden will get the nomination. And, its worser vs. worse.

    Who is worser and who is worse in your configuration?

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Biden = worse, Trump = worser

    In the Election of 2016, Trump and Shitlery were equally deplorable.

    Perhaps your savior Kris Kobach will run in 2024...

  318. @Dissenter22
    Talking about Biden...
    Biden info… Son married Jewish girl, daughter married Jewish
    man...
    https://forward.com/schmooze/426918/who-is-joe-bidens-new-jewish-daughter-in-law-melissa-cohen/

    That fact is a sort of Rorschach test. Some see it and think, “See, Jews have their hooks in everyone!” Others (myself included) see it as evidence that Jewishness as a distinct identity in the US is evaporating among the secular elite and that what we think of Jewishness in a generation or two will be men with distinctive beards and hats, an urban version of the Amish.

  319. @Audacious Epigone
    Who is worser and who is worse in your configuration?

    Biden = worse, Trump = worser

    In the Election of 2016, Trump and Shitlery were equally deplorable.

    Perhaps your savior Kris Kobach will run in 2024…

  320. @Omegabooks
    Trump wins if that's the way Israel wants it. Why? the Rothschild's own Israel, and Satan owns the Rothschilds. Who gives a crap about polls? Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahah!

    Why would Israel have preferred Obama over McCain?

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Audacious Epigone Comments via RSS