As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability level versus their probability (e.g., for predictions at the 70% confidence level, perfect calibration would represent getting 7/10 of them correct). Predictions with a probability rating of less than 50% are converted to their inverse.
Correct predictions are left as is, while wrong predictions are crossed out. Additional comments are in bolded italics.
Incidentally, this was probably the last series of quantitative predictions I am going to do. Ultimately, there are markets for this sort of thing.
Oil prices (WTI Crude) are higher than $70: 50%$45, pretty bad fail. BTC prices are higher than $4,000: 50%$3,800 on Jan 1, spot on. Russia’s GDP grows by 2.5%+: 50%Will be around 1.8%
- USA’s GDP grows by 2.5%+: 50% Will almost certainly qualify.
Ukraine’s GDP grows by 3.5%+: 50%Will be around 3.2% and just miss out.
- China’s GDP grows by 6.5%+: 50% Current growth around 6.7% for third 3 quarters so likely true unless tumbles now.
Science & Tech
- No new global temperature record: 60%.
- China will have more top 500 supercomputers than the US at the end of 2018: 90% 227 to 109, correct.
- Robust mouse rejuvenation does not happen: 95%
- Radical life extension does not happen: 99%
- Artificial General Intelligence or superintelligence do not happen: 99%
- There is no significant (>10 nukes) nuclear warfare: 99%
- Human civilization does not run into an existential risk (if it does, I will try my best to confirm it here before the Internet winks out): 99%
- US will not get involved in any new major war with a death toll of >50 US soldiers: 80%
US strike on a North Korean missile base: 50%
- No major conflict on the Korean peninsula (>50 deaths): 90%
- No Korean War II with US/ROK ground invasion: 95%
- No major conflict between China and the US (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia: 95%
- No major conflict between China, and Vietnam or India (>50 deaths): 95%
- No major conflict (>50 deaths), except Donbass, in the former Soviet space: 90%
- There will not be a US strike on Iran: 90%
- No major (direct) conflict between Iran and the US (>50 deaths) in the Middle East: 95%
- No major conflict/US military intervention in Venezuela: 99%
Syrian Civil War (map right for reference purposes)
- The Syrian Civil War is still ongoing: 80%
- The city of Idlib is still under rebel control: 60%. Correct
Islamic State no longer controls any territory in Iraq and/or Syria: 90%.Still a big chunk of gray in the desert.
- US and its allies will not impose a no fly zone over Syria: 90%
There will not be a major clash between the US and Russia over Syria (>3 fighters lost by either side): 90%I didn’t specify they had to be official military, so that’s incorrect.
- Turkey will not “backstab” Russia and the Syrian government: 90%
- The cold war between Syria and the SDF does not turn hot: 80%
- Syria controls more territory at the end of 2018 than it does today today: 70%
- Syria still controls Aleppo: 90%
- Bashar Assad will remain President of Syria: 90%
War in Donbass
- War in Donbass doesn’t reignite: 70%
- CONDITIONAL: If it reignites, it will happen during or within a month of the FIFA World Cup: 70% NOT COUNTED.
- Mariupol still under Ukraine control: 80%
- Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, and Kharkov all still under central Ukrainian control: 95%
- Russia does not recognize the DNR, LNR, or some other de facto state formation within the Ukraine: 80%
- No “Putinsliv”/abandonment of Russian support for DNR/LNR, with the Ukraine recapturing Donetsk and Lugansk: 95%
- The Crimea remains Russian: 99%
- No further large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Middle East/North African countries, apart from Iran and those already so afflicted: 70%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in China: 95%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Iran: 50%
- The Iranian “regime” (defined as one based on wilayat-e faqih) will remain in place: 80%.
Venezuela undergoes sovereign default: 70%.Not yet, remarkably.
- Nicolas Maduro remains leader of Venezuela: 60%.
- Kim Jong Un remains leader of North Korea: 90%
- Julian Assange still cooped up at the Ecuadorian Embassy: 80%
- US further expands Russia sanctions: 80%
- US does not relax or remove Russia sanctions: 90%
EU further expands Russia sanctions: 50%
- EU does not relax or remove Russia sanctions: 80%
- Russia is not cut off from SWIFT: 90%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Russia: 95%
- Putin wins the 2018 Russian Presidential elections: 99%
Putin gets more than 80% in the Russian Presidential elections: 50%.77%.
- Pavel Grudinin (KPRF) gets more than 7% in the Russian elections: 50%.
Zhirinovsky (LDPR) gets more than 8% in the Russian elections: 50%. Zhirinovsky gets more votes than Pavel Grudinin: 60%
- Navalny is not allowed to run: 90%
CONDITIONAL: If Sobchak is allowed to run, she gets more than 3% in the Russian elections: 50%.
- CONDITIONAL: If Navalny is allowed to run, he gets more than 8% in the Russian elections: 50%. NOT COUNTED
Russian elections see record low turnout: 80%
- The Russian elections see more than 60% turnout: 50%
Alexey Dyumin upgraded from governnorship of Tula oblast and given a significant position in the federal government: 60%
- Dmitry Medvedev continues as Prime Minister: 70%
Alexey Ulyukaev gets a suspended sentence on appeal: 60%
- There will be at least 100 arrests in post-elections protests: 80%
- Putin remains Russian President at the end of the year: 90%
Putin’s approval rating (Levada) is higher than 60% at year end: 50% There will be substantial (>10,000 in Moscow) anti-government protests in Russia: 80%
- There will be no be massive (>100,000 in Moscow) anti-government protests in Russia: 60%
Even fewer Russians approve (Levada) of the United States at year end than they did this December (24%): 50%.
- Poroshenko remains in power: 90%
- The Ukraine does not undergo sovereign default: 95%
Saakashvili extradited to Georgia: 70%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in USA: 95%
- Trump remains US President: 80%
- Trump’s approval rating (538) is higher than 32%: 50%
Democrats will control the Senate: 50%
- Democrats will control the House: 60%
- Rex Tillerson no longer Secretary of State: 60%
Jared Kushner no longer in the White House: 80%
- Hillary Clinton does not get prosecuted: 95%
Freedom House lowers United States Freedom Rating [no longer think this will happen. But as promised, carried over as-is from last set of predictions; will know in early February]: 50% Correct
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions in any EU country (>100 deaths): 95%
- No EU country schedules a referendum for EU exit in 2017: 90%
- No country leaves the Eurozone: 95%
5 Star Movement will win the Italian general elections: 60%.
- Fidesz wins a majority of seats in the 2018 Hungarian parliamentary elections: 95%
Angela Merkel will no longer be German Chancellor: 60%.
- New Labour wins more than it loses in UK local elections: 70%.
- Catalonia will not be an independent state de facto or de jure: 95%
- No Islamic terrorist attack in Europe causing more than 100 deaths: 70%.
Culture & Human Interest
- Germany will not win the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 80%
Russia will fail to advance past the group stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 60%.
- Russia will not win the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 99%
GRRM publishes Winds of Winter: 70%.
- UNQUANTIFIED: Daenerys dies, Theon lives (in the show):
- UNQUANTIFIED: Influence of the Alt Right declines.
Mount & Blade: Bannerlord released: 80%
- Cyberpunk 2077 not released: 90%
Sputnik and Pogrom above 1 million monthly visitors again as of November 2018 (SimilarWeb), despite it being blocked in Russia: 80%
- The Unz Review has more pageviews than in 2017: 80%.
Not going to do a detailed roundup on The AK, but in brief:
- Am still in Russia, am working on PhD, did do hard drugs this year but did not get plastered.
- Visited Romania, Portugal, UK; didn’t visit any other of the places enumerated there.
- Great successes in blogging continue (more details in my next post), but failed with review goals.
- Have authored one paper but it hasn’t been formally accepted yet, so that doesn’t count; haven’t fulfilled any of the other projects apart from the RationalWiki hagiography, unfortunately.
|Prediction Confidence||% Correct [World]||% Correct [The AK]||% Correct [Total]|
In my last predictions thread, I left the following note to myself:
PS. Note for future self: Tally correct/incorrect world and personal predictions separately; also combine and analyze them for the past several years.
This seems especially important, now that I have decided to give up on predictions calibrations.
Here are the total results for the following years.
It would be nice to do this for world and personal predictions separately – in that case, the gap between reality and the 50% confidence level would substantially narrow, since I tend to do badly there by overestimating the success rate of my projects (e.g. have still failed to write any books) – but I didn’t tally the data separately in the past two years, and having to count them all over again would be too much bother.