Inspired by Kireev’s similar posts in Russian, I’m asking S/O readers to predict (1) The official results of the elections, and (2) The actual, i.e. non-falsified, results. Please give them to one decimal point, and include all the five candidates as well as the share of invalid votes. They will be displayed in the table below.
The winner will be the one, the sum of whose predicted results differ least from the official results. In the (very unlikely) case that there emerge two winners, i.e. they were wrong by the same amount, the one who responded earlier will be considered the winner. The reward will be ample praise on this blog and a free S/O T-Shirt. (Which reminds me, I still owe one to Alex Mercouris. Will get to work on that…)
Separately, feel free to also predict the real, i.e. non-falsified, results, or the scale of falsifications you expect in these elections. I expect 2%-3% falsifications, lower than the 5%-7% I believe happened in 2011, but not rooted out entirely.
Predictions will be accepted until evening March 3, Moscow time. And now they are closed, thanks to the 23 people who participated!!
As soon as we get the official results, I will compile a list of our competitors by the accuracy of their predictions.