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Time for something more stereotypical.

***

* The AK. About a couple of months ago the National Bolsheviks (“Other Russia”) had me round to their “bunker” for a podcast. It’s now been released, you can listen to it here. (Obviously only in Russian).

Alt Right columnist Tobias Langdon “featured me” as a Jew besmirching the noble Anglo at Counter-Currents.

* SJWs. Ed West (Unherd) – The West’s cultural revolution is over:

This is not some dark new age of cancel culture, however, it’s just a return to normality. Those who grew up in the late 20th century were living in a highly unusual time, one that could never be sustained, a sexual and cultural revolution that began in 1963 or 1968. But it has ended and, as all revolutionaries must do after storming the Bastille, they have built Bastilles of their own. The new order has brought in numerous methods used by the old order to exert control — not just censorship, but word taboo and rituals which everyone is forced to go along with, or at least not openly criticise. You might call it the new intolerance, or woke extremism, but all societies need the policing of social norms.

No one would satirise the transgender movement today; no one would dare point fun at BLM, or Pride month; no one would dare joke about George Floyd, because like the publishers of Gay Times in 1977, they might face jail for blasphemy. Instead leading satirist Sacha Baron Cohen makes a living making jokes at the expense of the little people. Indeed the only satire made now pokes fun at the old establishment, like punching the corpse of a once-ferocious zoo animal, or the people who still hold the old beliefs; the elderly, the less educated, the rural and provincial. The powerless.

This is one of the best meta-pieces on the Great Awokening to date IMO.

* CHINA. Global Times – Surveys in Chinese cities show only 4% of urban families have willingness to have third child (h/t Godfree Roberts). As I noted, I think a generation of “lowest-low” fertility is all but baked in for China. This has happened to all the Sinic cultures of East Asia, as well as South Korea, despite the big differences between their political systems. It would be presumptuous to think that the CPC can avert what the others, including Singapore, did not.

* RUSSIAGATE NOSTALGIA. Luke Harding – Kremlin papers appear to show Putin’s plot to put Trump in White House. It reads like /r/esist fan fic.

The report – “No 32-04 \ vd” – is classified as secret. It says Trump is the “most promising candidate” from the Kremlin’s point of view. The word in Russian is perspektivny.

There is a brief psychological assessment of Trump, who is described as an “impulsive, mentally unstable and unbalanced individual who suffers from an inferiority complex”.

There is also apparent confirmation that the Kremlin possesses kompromat, or potentially compromising material, on the future president, collected – the document says – from Trump’s earlier “non-official visits to Russian Federation territory”.

#ThatHappened. /s Actually, I strongly suspect it might have been a troll job. Anyhow, as Aaron Mate points out, even the likes of Maddow aren’t touching it with a ten foot pole.

* SOUTH AFRICA. Aaaa… I’m… I’m gonna loooooot!

Kirkegaard with a blast from the past (2019): South Africa’s Decline Is Worst Among Nations Not at War, Model Shows. I wonder if there’s some demographic tipping point at which it implodes.

* AFGHANISTAN. Zadran, S. K., Ilyas, M., & Dawari, S. (2021). Genetic variants associated with diseases in Afghan population. Molecular Genetics & Genomic Medicine, 9(5), e1608. Holtz: “In Afghanistan, the prevalence of cousin marriages is estimated to be 46.2%. The prevalent type of cousin marriage is first cousin marriage (27.8%), followed by double first cousin marriage (6.9%), second cousin (5.8%), and third cousin (3.9%).” Sailer noted this, and the implications for the chances of US success in Afghanistan, two decades ago. 😐

* Video of Taliban taking over a gym. Disclose TV: “UK will work with the Taliban if they take power in Afghanistan, says the British Defense Minister.”

* CORONA. Yuri Deigin – Get vaccinated! It could help you, like, not die… It’s pretty funny observing the hostile responses to it. Basically, what I think happened is that many anti-China right-wingers followed him after Wade propped him as the originator of the “biolab escape” theory, under the impression he was some kind of anti-China propagandist. This is not the case, to their chagrin.

Incidentally, I have largely refrained from opining on ivermectin. It did strike me as this year’s hydroxychloroquine (not suppressed, works to some extent in some cases, neither the silver bullet nor the snake oil of rightoid and soyjak imagination, respectively), but it’s not something I wanted to actively research. But happily, Deigin – compiled some several studies which shows it as “either ineffective or very mildly effective.”

* The Economist notes that the Italian team that took the Euro 2020 was all white.

* Noah Carl – Are the England players consistent anti-racists?

* comment: Bashizubuk sci-fi idea.

* Antifa lolcow WASBAPPIN now has a Substack and it’s arguably even more powerful than his (now sadly suspended) Twitter.

* Daily Beast – MAGA World’s ‘Freedom Phone’ Actually Budget Chinese Phone.

Richard Hanania: “Latest conservative grift is to buy a $120 Chinese phone, preload it with conservative apps, rename it the “Freedom Phone,” and sell it for $500.

While Freedom Phone’s founder has failed to include basic details about its device, he did line up a massive ad campaign among conservative influencers. Along with Owens, Stone, D’Souza, and Alexander, the Freedom Phone has also been backed by a number of other figures popular on the right, including Pizzagate conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec, journalist John Solomon, and Students for Trump cofounder Ryan Fournier.

OTOH, who can blame them? There’s a reason these influencers have made it and you haven’t. My observation is the more you scam rightoids, the more they respect you for it.

* FINANCE (NFA). Three companies of note have listed in recent weeks: Transferwise (now just Wise) (~$13B), a very easy to use service for international money transfers; 23andme (~$4B), which needs no introduction; and the European Medical Center (~$1B), a private chain of about a dozen high-end clinics in Moscow. I suspect all of them will do quite well. I was actually slightly surprised that 23andme mc is so low, the genomic data it has accumulated should be a goldmine for pharma companies.

 

 
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  1. This is the current Open Thread, where anything goes – within reason.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Ths can interest you, Anatoly.

    https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-putin-s-babies-215463/?source=russia

    Replies: @Aedib

  2. The type of anti-Semitism displayed, by people like Langdon, is that which comes from a tiny number of status obsessed English bumpkins, always rejected and maligned by their peers, who have discovered a tiny shred of aristocracy in their otherwise ignoble lineage, leading them to delusions of natural leadership, if only it weren’t for (((them))).

    You can occasionally meet one, at an expensive club in London, which they can’t afford, and no one cool wants to go to anyway, wherein they thinly disguise their fretting over their declasse life, by name-dropping irrelevant minor peers.

    It isn’t that they are actually stupid and it isn’t that they are actually failures, it is just that they have made certain quieter choices in life, but don’t know it yet. In their confusion, in the meantime, it is good that they can find relief, by occasionally putting on a tweed jacket and strolling around like the bad guys from Caddyshack.

    It is a weakly rational version of undergoing past life regression, imagining yourself an Aztec Princess, and then spending decades obsessing over evil Conquistadors; except the Jews are no Conquistadors. The Conquistadors did actually take control of their societies and were as charismatic and handsome as they were cruel. The real Jews in the English elite tend to enter like all middle class strivers who succeed, get rich on something, send their children to “public” schools, be blended away and in.

    • Troll: Wignat is a slur
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/f1/b4/17/f1b4179ba055db0615f88e510b98e8a1--genesis-album-genesis-band.jpg

    Here, they've recovered their real place within society. :-)
    Fabulous album that I just bought yesterday and am listening to today!

    Replies: @silviosilver

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I am actually sorry for my comment. It was far too harsh and on the nose. I guess I miss 1960s London too. When rents in Cadogan Square were affordable and you could park outside your favourite nightclub, before driving home on genteel streets. I was born decades later, but I've heard the stories and it all sounds great.

    , @Philip Owen
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Nothing wrong with tweed jackets, especially with a Tatersall shirt and cavalary twill trousers, moleskins at a pinch. Wearing them in Town though? Might as well wear brown shoes after 6 pm.

  3. Indeed the only satire made now pokes fun at the old establishment, like punching the corpse of a once-ferocious zoo animal, or the people who still hold the old beliefs; the elderly, the less educated, the rural and provincial. The powerless.

    These people voted for Trump. Not only should they be satirized, but they should have that satire blasted into their skulls 24/7 like Gitmo torture victims — perhaps more Steven Colbert ice cream jokes as they’re dragged into the Walmart FEMA Camps for vaccine truancy.

    • Troll: tyrone
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Supply and Demand

    Involuntary neuralink to troll them remotely 24/7 directly into their brain.

  4. • Thanks: Aedib
  5. I prefer to think of you as a spiteful mongrel, like Lenin

    • LOL: songbird
  6. Just as 2% Jews dominate the world, so too 3% of Jewish ancestry dominates Karlin’s personality.

    There is no escape, Karlin.

    • LOL: SIMP simp
    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @AaronB

    There was some WN writer (I think it was Andrew Hamilton, but I can't find it) who quoted some Jewish philosopher or rabbi or whatever from a century or two ago who apparently believed something close to what you've said here, that even a smidgeon of "Jewish blood" has outsized effects which incline the person to favor Jews. (I may be misremembering that last bit, but not the part about outsized effects.) The WN writer's point was that Jews would know best about such things, so whites should take the argument seriously.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    , @Dmitry
    @AaronB

    Jews are less than 0,2% of the population, so Karlin is showing 15 times higher levels of Judaism than a normal sample .

    If international guidelines for normal safe levels of Judaism in a person are 2000 ppm (parts per million), Karlin's blood is measuring contamination rates as high as 30,000 ppm, at which point we might might begin to see the neurotoxic effects with symptoms like an interest in stock market and collecting multiple passports.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin

  7. Here’s another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

    And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

    Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    @songbird

    These dreams of maximizing a single quality strike me as based on a very deep mistake.

    Things are holistic - they come in sets, in "clusters". You can't have the good without the bad.

    You can't simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it's relationship to everything else in it's cluster.

    Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining. If you wish one, you wish the other.

    Replies: @songbird, @Daniel Chieh, @Almost Missouri

    , @Svevlad
    @songbird

    Yes, you could.

    The only reason why for example we don't have gorilla strength is because we had to specialize for more brain. With selective breeding, this can be reversed, as due to modern agriculture, that is obsolete. We can have absolutely ludicrous gains "naturally."

    Now, the problem with Abos - is that there's an absolutely hilariously ungodly small amount of purebloods left. Albeit with inserting all the larpwhites into the group I think something could be made...

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @songbird

    Some of it is possible, but its rarely that simple. High altitude tolerance is something that has been looked into, I believe, as it is pretty distinctive.

    https://theconversation.com/mixed-ancestry-genetic-research-shows-a-bit-of-native-american-dna-could-reduce-risk-of-alzheimers-disease-159118

    Replies: @songbird

    , @silviosilver
    @songbird


    Here’s another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots?
     
    The plot is that it turns out it is possible, and a number of scientists get to work on it in utmost secrecy, but someone lets the cat out of the bag and the public finds the idea so abhorrent - Abo supersoldiers? - that it finally precipitates the long-awaited normie revolt.
    , @Joe Paluka
    @songbird

    You got that "fact" that aborigines have 4X better vision from a fluff online news source. Here's an Australian government source that speaks of the myriad of eye problems that abos have. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/indigenous-australians/eye-health-in-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islande/contents/summary

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Alfa158
    @songbird

    That level of genetic manipulation is indeed still science fiction. We haven’t even been able to isolate precisely enough which genes have which effect, or to edit the genetic code to that level of precision.

    Also, if we did have that technology there would be no need to use Australian Aborigines or any other particular group as the starting point. You would be able to do it with any humans. The science fiction story would end up being about countries all over the world competing in a genetic arms race to produce more and more capable people.

    That was basically the premise of that classic Star Trek episode. The genetically modified super humans of all nations and races decided it didn’t make sense to continue to serve the inferior humans who created them, and organized into an independent group headed by Khan.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @songbird

  8. Surveys in Chinese cities show only 4% of urban families have willingness to have third child

    TFR is dropping like a rock.

    China’s Nightmare –

    View post on imgur.com

    With China having one of the worst demographics in the world, it becomes more and more clear that the ignorant talk of some “Sinotriumphalists” about China reaching 3 times the GDP of the US is becoming a joke.

    China will get no more than 1,5 bigger GDP in MER and 1,9 times in PPP and will be lucky if the US does not overtake it again later in the century.

    • Disagree: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Passer by

    China is, I suspect, one of the countries that would be least affected by a spell in the sub-TFR=1.2 zone. Economies of scale will remain regardless, almost 40% of the population still in rural areas and a significant part of the rest in small towns that can be moved to the metropolises to increase productivity, and beyond that, plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia, if it comes down to that. Also I don't know if you've been keeping track but US TFR is also going sharply down, and White/Asian TFR's (the ones who are actually running the O-Ring industries that underpin US economic power) are about 0.1 child below the average.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Triteleia Laxa

    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Let's try to use actual numbers.

    In 2050, China's population might be 1.38 billion (down from 1.41 billion today). I'm adjusting a UN population estimate based on the results released from the 2020 Census to get this figure. In 2050, the US population will be 390 million based on the projection of the US Census. China's population will still be about 3.5 times larger in 2050. So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger. I agree with you that 300% is far-fetched but 150% seems low to me.

    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian). Can you imagine the GDP per capita of the US is $65,000 this year if the country had the projected demographics of 2050? It would be lower than $65,000 and China would catch up faster.

    Are there any assumptions you don't agree with in the calculation? What's the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by, @Boomthorkell

  9. @Triteleia Laxa
    The type of anti-Semitism displayed, by people like Langdon, is that which comes from a tiny number of status obsessed English bumpkins, always rejected and maligned by their peers, who have discovered a tiny shred of aristocracy in their otherwise ignoble lineage, leading them to delusions of natural leadership, if only it weren't for (((them))).

    You can occasionally meet one, at an expensive club in London, which they can't afford, and no one cool wants to go to anyway, wherein they thinly disguise their fretting over their declasse life, by name-dropping irrelevant minor peers.

    It isn't that they are actually stupid and it isn't that they are actually failures, it is just that they have made certain quieter choices in life, but don't know it yet. In their confusion, in the meantime, it is good that they can find relief, by occasionally putting on a tweed jacket and strolling around like the bad guys from Caddyshack.

    It is a weakly rational version of undergoing past life regression, imagining yourself an Aztec Princess, and then spending decades obsessing over evil Conquistadors; except the Jews are no Conquistadors. The Conquistadors did actually take control of their societies and were as charismatic and handsome as they were cruel. The real Jews in the English elite tend to enter like all middle class strivers who succeed, get rich on something, send their children to "public" schools, be blended away and in.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Triteleia Laxa, @Philip Owen


    Here, they’ve recovered their real place within society. 🙂
    Fabulous album that I just bought yesterday and am listening to today!

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Mr. Hack

    Not bad.

    Are you a Chicago fan? I was looking up some old songs on YT and came across this Russian cover band. Damn, pretty good, Chicago themselves gave them an 'official' stamp of approval.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVXUlV86bAM

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack

  10. @Passer by

    Surveys in Chinese cities show only 4% of urban families have willingness to have third child
     
    TFR is dropping like a rock.

    China's Nightmare -

    https://imgur.com/a/LmcX9zh

    With China having one of the worst demographics in the world, it becomes more and more clear that the ignorant talk of some "Sinotriumphalists" about China reaching 3 times the GDP of the US is becoming a joke.

    China will get no more than 1,5 bigger GDP in MER and 1,9 times in PPP and will be lucky if the US does not overtake it again later in the century.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @china-russia-all-the-way

    China is, I suspect, one of the countries that would be least affected by a spell in the sub-TFR=1.2 zone. Economies of scale will remain regardless, almost 40% of the population still in rural areas and a significant part of the rest in small towns that can be moved to the metropolises to increase productivity, and beyond that, plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia, if it comes down to that. Also I don’t know if you’ve been keeping track but US TFR is also going sharply down, and White/Asian TFR’s (the ones who are actually running the O-Ring industries that underpin US economic power) are about 0.1 child below the average.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Economies of scale will remain regardless
     
    For the US too.

    plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia
     
    I doubt that China will launch large scale immigration policies, east asian countries are not fans of that.

    Also I don’t know if you’ve been keeping track..
     
    I'm. Yet the number of asians in the US is estimated to increase as Asian immigration is overtaking Latino immigration and starts to dominate US population inflows.

    This post was intended to provoke discussion, the US has issues too, and possible negative scenarios too.

    Replies: @BS

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My perspective is not one of building great, world-beating countries. I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

    Nonetheless, the US is well-placed to 'perform" well. I believe there is a general trend towards higher fertility for educated women, probably because of better technology. I also see that the US will continue to attract the cognitive elite to move there from everywhere, including China, for the indefinite future.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Svevlad, @Passer by

  11. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Passer by

    China is, I suspect, one of the countries that would be least affected by a spell in the sub-TFR=1.2 zone. Economies of scale will remain regardless, almost 40% of the population still in rural areas and a significant part of the rest in small towns that can be moved to the metropolises to increase productivity, and beyond that, plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia, if it comes down to that. Also I don't know if you've been keeping track but US TFR is also going sharply down, and White/Asian TFR's (the ones who are actually running the O-Ring industries that underpin US economic power) are about 0.1 child below the average.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Triteleia Laxa

    Economies of scale will remain regardless

    For the US too.

    plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia

    I doubt that China will launch large scale immigration policies, east asian countries are not fans of that.

    Also I don’t know if you’ve been keeping track..

    I’m. Yet the number of asians in the US is estimated to increase as Asian immigration is overtaking Latino immigration and starts to dominate US population inflows.

    This post was intended to provoke discussion, the US has issues too, and possible negative scenarios too.

    • Replies: @BS
    @Passer by

    It would be a deeply amusing outcome if around 2100, a second great power showdown between China and America were to happen, only the second time around a significant proportion of the the American elite are descendants of Asian emigrés (think a high-stakes, thermonuclear version of present-day "Chang v Chang" IOI showdown between American and Chinese teams) Would certainly fit the 21st century's "Pacific Century" moniker.

  12. @songbird
    Here's another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

    And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

    Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Svevlad, @Daniel Chieh, @silviosilver, @Joe Paluka, @Alfa158

    These dreams of maximizing a single quality strike me as based on a very deep mistake.

    Things are holistic – they come in sets, in “clusters”. You can’t have the good without the bad.

    You can’t simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it’s relationship to everything else in it’s cluster.

    Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining. If you wish one, you wish the other.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @AaronB


    You can’t simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it’s relationship to everything else in it’s cluster.
     
    This is my fear as well, especially with the brain. And suppose you could somehow add the two things together, without one affecting the other, then would the rest of the body even match up with it? Would the volume of the skull be large enough? The neck strong enough? Would the root metabolism be sufficient to feed it?

    I tend to be a bit skeptical of the Hsu argument that we can increase IQ to the same degree that we've increased crop yields. Maybe, we can make everyone a genius, but not an ultra super-genius. And making everyone a genius might have social costs as well. Some theorize that geniuses function for the good of society, and are not good at passing down their own seed.

    Of course, I wouldn't describe myself as a radical transhumanist, in the same vein as some others here. It appeals more to my imagination than it does to my spirit, small areas of peculiar interest aside. Though, I am very enthusiastic about improving dogs, as I see it as a spiritual continuation of what we have done in the past. And the same is true to a smaller degree with other animals.

    Like, imagine a cat that was naturally immune to toxoplasmosis and did not make cat ladies even crazier. Another idea might be to make a cat that didn't hunt birds. I understand cats kill billions of birds every year, and some are rare.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    @AaronB


    Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining.
     
    Not all downsides at applicable in modern society; e.g. many animal models do not maximize brainpower since it is extremely calorically costly. Humanity is not generally limited by calories.

    That said, a lot of traits are complex. Simply classifying them as "good" or "bad" is not very useful, and there are certainly possibilities for optimization(e.g. even traditional breeding).

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Cornselection.jpg

    , @Almost Missouri
    @AaronB

    Agree. Much of the fix-it-with-gene-editing is just a more elaborate version of "we should build hills without valleys" or "we must have sunshine without shadows".

    At least the old fashioned breeders understood what they were getting into: creating a distortion means taking the bad with the good.

    Replies: @AaronB

  13. Will the crypto market continue to punish me for trusting in a crypto summer?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @40 Lashes Less One

    Roko (whose analysis I think is mostly correct) thinks so, he believes BTC will bottom out at $23k. I wouldn't sell everything because downside is now limited and a supercycle stretching into 2022 can't be absolutely excluded, but there's a good chance that most alts will continue getting rekt through to the end of this year. Unfortunately, the quality coins tend to go down almost as hard as the shitcoins during the early bear market.



    https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1405632885781106688

    Replies: @40 Lashes Less One

  14. • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AnonFromTN

    Yes, that's true. Harding has a habit of failing upwards. There are some speculations that he's an MI6 asset and that this is his roof at The Guardian.

    , @Jazman
    @AnonFromTN

    I am following closely what is going on with vaccination and everything you said about Pfizer is true and you said it long time ago , every day there is more and more problems . I avoided at work to receive Pfizer thanks God nobody forcing me yet , but also now people on the street stopping people and asking are you vaccinated . My brother is neurologist but pushing for Pfizer he is paid by them to promote vaccination , when I present him credible sources he accused me of propaganda .

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  15. Those who grew up in the late 20th century were living in a highly unusual time, one that could never be sustained, a sexual and cultural revolution that began in 1963 or 1968. But it has ended and, as all revolutionaries must do after storming the Bastille, they have built Bastilles of their own.

    That may not be exactly what happened. The 60’s revolutionaries and their assorted hangers-on were happy pushing openness and more of everything – until they started to lose the argument. Then the woke maniacs shut down the public space because they were losing, roughly around 2015-18. One could see it as Bastille building, but it could also be simple inability to compete, a fear of looking ridiculous.

    On a smaller scale, hapless Luke Harding has been a professional Russophobe for years. His last attempt is so pathetic that it reminds me of the time he (or some other Guardianista) complained that a Moscow laundry wouldn’t give him his shirt without a claim ticket – they squarely blamed Putin for this outrage. To peddle “the most promising candidate” as anything other than a boiler-plate busy work (if it happened at all) is scraping the bottom even for the Guardian. It can take a long time to slide into oblivion, they have been at it for years.

  16. On China’s National Judicial Exam, taken by hundreds of thousands of aspiring lawyers and judges, the following question was asked: “If you could rescue either your mother or your girlfriend from a deadly fire, which one would you rescue?” The ministry of justice later confirmed that the correct answer is that you save your mother; you are legally obligated. I wonder if saving the mother would be the result across various countries, occupations, and social classes.
    The Chinese Bar-Exam-question story:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinese-law-test-examines-crime-choosing-save-girlfriend-over-mother-a6671216.html

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @SafeNow

    I like this sort of examination. The best way to judge someone's integrity and character for such kinds of work is to ask those kinds of "difficult" questions.

    I'd argue that saving the girlfriend is the correct option. The parents, well, by creating me, have done their jobs, and became obsolete. The girlfriend has more potential.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver

  17. Ok, someone please translate this article to english. I cant understand any of this. You drunk? What is the point of this? I only drank one beer, it is not possible i forgot english language completely. Maybe you are a retard, having fun there to write complete nonsense on purpose, to make us think we forgot how to read?

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Anzelo

    Those who know, know.

  18. Is it too late for the Zulu to separate from other blacks? Will South Africa divide in the future?

  19. I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.

    There is an increasing number of the so-called conservative intellectuals who like to ridicule “rightoids”. Hanania is one. Karlin wants to get on that train, too. What’s interesting to me is that there is nothing like this on the left. There is a ton of stupid “leftoids”, in fact whole demographics of them. But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.

    Re: Bashibuzuk’s sci-fi idea. Isn’t that basically the premise of Zardoz? There must be hundreds of books written around this idea going back to H.G. Wells’s Time Machine. My favorite is the forgotten classic Engine Summer by John Crowley.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @inertial


    I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.
     
    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can't even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters... It's a free market, I don't really see a "problem" either. 🤷‍♂️

    I am not near audacious or amoral enough to even think of running such schemes on my audience. That said, I do reserve the right to "sneer" at the chumps who keep falling for these grifts, just like the SJWs sending their paychecks to their respective scammers and grifters are also funny. Probably this makes me the greater fool, after all, Candace, D’Souza, Jack Posobiec, etc. make much more money than me and get the deep respect of the people they scam, while I get called a spiteful mongrel on my own blog.

    But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.
     
    They are not intellectuals. Some of them might be clever, but they are political operatives, the mirror image of the MAGA grifters. There are plenty of intellectually honest thinkers on the progressive Left as well, the likes of Greenwald, Michael Tracey, and many others.

    Replies: @A123, @inertial, @Not Raul

    , @Nimrod
    @inertial

    Hanania does, to some degree, punch down on rightoids for falling for grifters. He is temperamentally arrogant and narcissistic.

    But take a look at his whole oeuvre. His actual policy recommendations sound like something out of a paleocon/white nationalist journal (crush teachers' unions, defund universities, gut the Civil Rights Act). He's on our side. If lefties actually though critically about what he says and does, they'd de-platform him instantly.

    Let him build up cover for himself wherever he can so he can keep pushing Crimethink.

    , @Svidomyatheart
    @inertial

    Why are you even on this site and reading Karlin.

    I would tag your comments as Troll but I dont post here enough. I literally logged in just to post cuz I got triggered.

    Its gonna be used to spy on rightoids

    If you’re cheering for things like “conservative” Fox News(LOL) and Freedom phones then you as a “rightist” or whatever it means already lost.

  20. @Supply and Demand

    Indeed the only satire made now pokes fun at the old establishment, like punching the corpse of a once-ferocious zoo animal, or the people who still hold the old beliefs; the elderly, the less educated, the rural and provincial. The powerless.
     
    These people voted for Trump. Not only should they be satirized, but they should have that satire blasted into their skulls 24/7 like Gitmo torture victims -- perhaps more Steven Colbert ice cream jokes as they're dragged into the Walmart FEMA Camps for vaccine truancy.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    Involuntary neuralink to troll them remotely 24/7 directly into their brain.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
  21. Global fertility rate will likely drop below replacement in a few years.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    @Shortsword

    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver, @kzn

  22. @songbird
    Here's another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

    And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

    Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Svevlad, @Daniel Chieh, @silviosilver, @Joe Paluka, @Alfa158

    Yes, you could.

    The only reason why for example we don’t have gorilla strength is because we had to specialize for more brain. With selective breeding, this can be reversed, as due to modern agriculture, that is obsolete. We can have absolutely ludicrous gains “naturally.”

    Now, the problem with Abos – is that there’s an absolutely hilariously ungodly small amount of purebloods left. Albeit with inserting all the larpwhites into the group I think something could be made…

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Svevlad

    I think it was Greg Cochran who had the idea of making super Neanderthals. I don't know if there is really enough ancient DNA to do it, even if we could. But I think it would be a pretty interesting idea, to try to make a Neanderthal Newton.

    Maybe, the unique qualities of the Neanderthal brain would mean that such a genius would make unique discoveries. Or maybe, he would be an evil genius who wants revenge on us for displacing his relatives.

  23. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Passer by

    China is, I suspect, one of the countries that would be least affected by a spell in the sub-TFR=1.2 zone. Economies of scale will remain regardless, almost 40% of the population still in rural areas and a significant part of the rest in small towns that can be moved to the metropolises to increase productivity, and beyond that, plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia, if it comes down to that. Also I don't know if you've been keeping track but US TFR is also going sharply down, and White/Asian TFR's (the ones who are actually running the O-Ring industries that underpin US economic power) are about 0.1 child below the average.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Triteleia Laxa

    My perspective is not one of building great, world-beating countries. I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

    Nonetheless, the US is well-placed to ‘perform” well. I believe there is a general trend towards higher fertility for educated women, probably because of better technology. I also see that the US will continue to attract the cognitive elite to move there from everywhere, including China, for the indefinite future.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The former might be correct (though the Great Awokening might be reversing things even as we speak - all these 666 gender memes affect the "educated" to a greater extent than the proles), but I think the latter is a tall order, whatever one's thoughts on America's trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Boomthorkell

    , @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.
     
    Interestingly, but I once thought up a scenario of some sort of hyper-oppressive government or AI that's also at the same time benevolent. So how could this be?

    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity, freedom and security, they need to be liberated from everything, including government. So basically anarchy. Except, anarchy doesn't provide for security, and doesn't last long. People have needs they can't fulfill themselves.

    Therefore, they need to actually be made as self-sufficient as possible. By any means necessary, and as quickly as possible. You don't need to govern gods.

    Therefore, to accomplish this, an incredibly oppressive system that's practically the exact opposite of what you prefer is instituted, where everyone's lives revolve constantly and exclusively on improving themselves by any means necessary. This could last centuries.

    The catch is, is it worth, to doom billions, trillions even, to a lifetime of suffering, so that their descendants become basically godlike and have no needs at all which they can't provide for themselves (sustenance/shelter/water etc) apart from socialization, allowing them to truly fully express their potential and creativity?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh, @Yellowface Anon

    , @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Both the fertility of the educated and the uneducated is falling in the US, only the fertility of the educated is dropping at lower pace compared to the uneducated. Its all time low for both groups.

  24. @AnonFromTN
    Just a note:
    Luke Harding was caught red handed with plagiarism. You can find details in many places, including:
    https://exiledonline.com/luke-harding-porn-read-the-guardians-apology-to-the-exile-over-luke-harding-plagiarism/
    https://thealtworld.com/caitlin_johnston/luke-hardings-continued-employment-discredits-all-western-media

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Jazman

    Yes, that’s true. Harding has a habit of failing upwards. There are some speculations that he’s an MI6 asset and that this is his roof at The Guardian.

  25. @SafeNow
    On China’s National Judicial Exam, taken by hundreds of thousands of aspiring lawyers and judges, the following question was asked: “If you could rescue either your mother or your girlfriend from a deadly fire, which one would you rescue?” The ministry of justice later confirmed that the correct answer is that you save your mother; you are legally obligated. I wonder if saving the mother would be the result across various countries, occupations, and social classes.
    The Chinese Bar-Exam-question story:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinese-law-test-examines-crime-choosing-save-girlfriend-over-mother-a6671216.html

    Replies: @Svevlad

    I like this sort of examination. The best way to judge someone’s integrity and character for such kinds of work is to ask those kinds of “difficult” questions.

    I’d argue that saving the girlfriend is the correct option. The parents, well, by creating me, have done their jobs, and became obsolete. The girlfriend has more potential.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Svevlad

    Not to say that one or another option is more correct, but the point here seems to be it was legal exam, so probably CCP Chinese laws have explicit or implicit priorities in such situations towards formal family members instead of non formalized relationships.

    Whether is it right or wrong should be an object of philosophy/ethics exam perhaps. Wonder what the correct lawful answer in current China would be if the choice should have been done between parents and official wife, not just girlfriend.

    , @silviosilver
    @Svevlad

    I think the "correct" answer should be the person you love more. Some people justifiably hate their mothers, so it would be perfectly understandable if they let them perish. Or others may love their mothers, but have a very serious girlfriend they intend to marry, and it would be understandable if they picked her over the mother. Personally, there's no girl I'm even close to that serious about, so there's no chance I'd pick some silly slut over my own mother, even in the case that my mother was sick and only had a short time to live.

  26. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Passer by

    Surveys in Chinese cities show only 4% of urban families have willingness to have third child
     
    TFR is dropping like a rock.

    China's Nightmare -

    https://imgur.com/a/LmcX9zh

    With China having one of the worst demographics in the world, it becomes more and more clear that the ignorant talk of some "Sinotriumphalists" about China reaching 3 times the GDP of the US is becoming a joke.

    China will get no more than 1,5 bigger GDP in MER and 1,9 times in PPP and will be lucky if the US does not overtake it again later in the century.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @china-russia-all-the-way

    Let’s try to use actual numbers.

    In 2050, China’s population might be 1.38 billion (down from 1.41 billion today). I’m adjusting a UN population estimate based on the results released from the 2020 Census to get this figure. In 2050, the US population will be 390 million based on the projection of the US Census. China’s population will still be about 3.5 times larger in 2050. So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger. I agree with you that 300% is far-fetched but 150% seems low to me.

    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian). Can you imagine the GDP per capita of the US is $65,000 this year if the country had the projected demographics of 2050? It would be lower than $65,000 and China would catch up faster.

    Are there any assumptions you don’t agree with in the calculation? What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    My biggest disagreement is with projecting the population size or economic size of basically everywhere based on deliberately ignoring what the WEF can do. The population of the West (US + Anglosphere + EU) can drop by maybe 1/5, and GDP per capita 1/4-2/3 (judging from the last time this happened, the collapse of actually-existing socialism in the 90s). I'm not saying Russia or China will be immune to this, but they'll be a bit less affected.

    If you take a stabilizing Chinese economy and a fracturing and failing American economy, we could actually have GDP per capita parity (of the American collapse kind). If China still had 1.2B people (100M lower than the low-end UN projections) then and the US 220M (losing 1/3), that would easily be ~5.5x. It's only a back-of-the-envelope estimation and we don't know what the world will be even next year.

    (That 220M figure is assuming a sociocide on the scale of Khmer Rouge and 20 more years of stable population loss post-Soviet style. It's not as radical as Deagel's 100M in 2030)

    , @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.
     
    Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 - 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping's target for 2020 - 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

    The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 - 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

    For 2030 - 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 - 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

    For 2040 - 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

    At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.


    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).
     
    If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

    https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/pisa-scores-migrants.jpg


    What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?
     
    I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

    Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

    In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching "only" 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Yellowface Anon, @Shortsword, @Pericles

    , @Boomthorkell
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Kind of a good joke, right?

    People act like going from 1.4 billion to...even 800 million (not that that is going to happen) over the course of a century is some crazy catastrophe. Even Japan going from 120 million to 80 million (again, not going to happen, bar a nuclear war over Taiwan), is not a disaster. Still bigger than Ireland, in both cases, and either 10 Germanies or 1 Germany, respectively.

    America's population going over 400,000,000 would have been impressive in an era when they would have been more white. Now it's just sad. Though, Hispanics are pretty okay, so we can artificially hit over 400 mil by integrating Mexico, which would probably also improve our immigration laws as Mexicans vote en masse to bar any foreigners from settling their country, including Central Americans. Lol.

  27. @40 Lashes Less One
    Will the crypto market continue to punish me for trusting in a crypto summer?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Roko (whose analysis I think is mostly correct) thinks so, he believes BTC will bottom out at $23k. I wouldn’t sell everything because downside is now limited and a supercycle stretching into 2022 can’t be absolutely excluded, but there’s a good chance that most alts will continue getting rekt through to the end of this year. Unfortunately, the quality coins tend to go down almost as hard as the shitcoins during the early bear market.

    • Replies: @40 Lashes Less One
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Do you think Willy Woo is a con man?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  28. @inertial
    I fail to see a problem with "Freedom phone". I wouldn't buy one but I don't see what's so sneer-worthy about this idea.

    There is an increasing number of the so-called conservative intellectuals who like to ridicule "rightoids". Hanania is one. Karlin wants to get on that train, too. What's interesting to me is that there is nothing like this on the left. There is a ton of stupid "leftoids", in fact whole demographics of them. But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.

    Re: Bashibuzuk's sci-fi idea. Isn't that basically the premise of Zardoz? There must be hundreds of books written around this idea going back to H.G. Wells's Time Machine. My favorite is the forgotten classic Engine Summer by John Crowley.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Nimrod, @Svidomyatheart

    I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.

    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can’t even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters… It’s a free market, I don’t really see a “problem” either. 🤷‍♂️

    I am not near audacious or amoral enough to even think of running such schemes on my audience. That said, I do reserve the right to “sneer” at the chumps who keep falling for these grifts, just like the SJWs sending their paychecks to their respective scammers and grifters are also funny. Probably this makes me the greater fool, after all, Candace, D’Souza, Jack Posobiec, etc. make much more money than me and get the deep respect of the people they scam, while I get called a spiteful mongrel on my own blog.

    But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.

    They are not intellectuals. Some of them might be clever, but they are political operatives, the mirror image of the MAGA grifters. There are plenty of intellectually honest thinkers on the progressive Left as well, the likes of Greenwald, Michael Tracey, and many others.

    • Agree: Boomthorkell
    • LOL: Yevardian
    • Replies: @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can’t even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters… It’s a free market, I don’t really see a “problem” either. 🤷‍♂️
     
    Many people have signed up for more foolish things.

    It would he interested to know number of Freedom Phones sold (revenue) versus paid endorsements and advertising (expenses). The profit margin may not be that high looking at everything all-in.

    PEACE 😇
    , @inertial
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Hanania reminds me of old penniless aristocrat sneering at entrepreneurs. Selling stuff that people might need is an uncouth way to make money! It's practically stealing! The only genteel way to earn a living is inherit from a rich uncle work in academia or a think tank. Selling phones is grift but asking for grants is NOT grift!

    So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that's not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?

    This reminds me of how they used to laugh at Fox News when it just opened. And true, in its early years the channel was an absolute amateur hour; CNN was ahead by leaps and bounds. But eventually they stopped sneering and started seething, which is what they do to this day.

    Replies: @Not Raul

    , @Not Raul
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I agree!

    (I already used up my reaction comments)

    It’s interesting how grifters get so much more respect than honest people.

    I for one am grateful for the content you provide.

    If I’m ever in Moscow, I’ll stand you a pint.

  29. * The Economist notes that the Italian team that took the Euro 2020 was all white.

    Good spot by AK.

    Does anyone else remember decades ago when The Economist was credible? Now, they are more cringe worthy than The New York Times… Which takes *real* effort.

    I picked out the retweet below a couple days ago planning for my:

    😆 Weekly Open Thread Humor [WOTH] 😂

    As some have commented on animations, three GIF’s are below the [MORE] tag.

    I have no idea who the child & parents are #3, but that is real creativity on display.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

     

     

     

    • Replies: @kzn
    @A123

    No joke - I was very surprised, though in a good way.

    All the big football teams have extensive scouting networks and Italy has had a fairly large surge in African migrants this millenium. Its no secret that lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages ( much easier to identify a good youth athlete and convert him into a semi-decent footballer who can be sold for a big profit, than it is to identify a great pure football-talent kid)...... so you would have expected a result of these processes to be Italia having some generic big, strong and quick Africans in their team.

    The composition of the squad is very unusual in that they are from all parts of Italy from a club perspective, with many not even at good performing clubs. Spain, as with Italy also appears with their football team to be reversing the political/social trends in their country-the 1 African guy in the squad didn't even play in the tournament.

    France, even though historically they have been successful in the big football tournaments, often look very ugly and disjointed in their football style - most probably because of all the different whites, Arabs and Africans they have. Italia looked very much a true team, very good to watch

    Replies: @Beckow

  30. @Anatoly Karlin
    @40 Lashes Less One

    Roko (whose analysis I think is mostly correct) thinks so, he believes BTC will bottom out at $23k. I wouldn't sell everything because downside is now limited and a supercycle stretching into 2022 can't be absolutely excluded, but there's a good chance that most alts will continue getting rekt through to the end of this year. Unfortunately, the quality coins tend to go down almost as hard as the shitcoins during the early bear market.



    https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1405632885781106688

    Replies: @40 Lashes Less One

    Do you think Willy Woo is a con man?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @40 Lashes Less One

    I don't follow him.

    Replies: @40 Lashes Less One

  31. @40 Lashes Less One
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Do you think Willy Woo is a con man?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    I don’t follow him.

    • Replies: @40 Lashes Less One
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If he follows you, I doubt he'll mention it

  32. @Anatoly Karlin
    @inertial


    I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.
     
    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can't even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters... It's a free market, I don't really see a "problem" either. 🤷‍♂️

    I am not near audacious or amoral enough to even think of running such schemes on my audience. That said, I do reserve the right to "sneer" at the chumps who keep falling for these grifts, just like the SJWs sending their paychecks to their respective scammers and grifters are also funny. Probably this makes me the greater fool, after all, Candace, D’Souza, Jack Posobiec, etc. make much more money than me and get the deep respect of the people they scam, while I get called a spiteful mongrel on my own blog.

    But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.
     
    They are not intellectuals. Some of them might be clever, but they are political operatives, the mirror image of the MAGA grifters. There are plenty of intellectually honest thinkers on the progressive Left as well, the likes of Greenwald, Michael Tracey, and many others.

    Replies: @A123, @inertial, @Not Raul

    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can’t even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters… It’s a free market, I don’t really see a “problem” either. 🤷‍♂️

    Many people have signed up for more foolish things.

    It would he interested to know number of Freedom Phones sold (revenue) versus paid endorsements and advertising (expenses). The profit margin may not be that high looking at everything all-in.

    PEACE 😇

  33. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My perspective is not one of building great, world-beating countries. I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

    Nonetheless, the US is well-placed to 'perform" well. I believe there is a general trend towards higher fertility for educated women, probably because of better technology. I also see that the US will continue to attract the cognitive elite to move there from everywhere, including China, for the indefinite future.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Svevlad, @Passer by

    The former might be correct (though the Great Awokening might be reversing things even as we speak – all these 666 gender memes affect the “educated” to a greater extent than the proles), but I think the latter is a tall order, whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.
     
    There's still a lot who stay in the US, and there's plenty of cognitively elite people in lots of other countries.

    Furthermore, the US is exciting and fun. Staying in China is safe and homely.

    Hayek got it right when he pointed out that modern economies run on information. The US is great at this, and has positioned itself extremely well to take advantage of it in the future.

    Take computer games. I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with. This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market. Chinese products simply can't be as interesting to most other places - they can't even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

    This means, that in many different ways, China is cut off from global information streams, from which the highest level of development is drunk, while the US is the country which all of them actually flow through.

    I appreciate that the above point is not very fleshed out, but it is only just coalescing as a clear image in my head. I will reflect on it.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Jaakko Raipala, @Dmitry

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Hopefully that will give North America some peace, and even the greatest "swallow the peoples of the world"-types will struggle to keep up their desired level of immigrant inflows.

    Then the self-improvement can begin, ha ha.

  34. The dramatically under reported story of the week (1)

    The Second Amendment Foundation said this week’s ruling by the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals declaring the ban on handgun sales to young adults in the 18-20-year age group to be unconstitutional is a “monumental victory for Second Amendment rights.”

    Judge Julius N. Richardson, writing for the majority, observed, “Looking through this historical lens to the text and structure of the Constitution reveals that 18- to 20-year-olds have Second Amendment rights. Virtually every other constitutional right applies whatever the age. And the Second Amendment is no different.”

    “Judge Richardson, in my estimation, has authored one of the best-written opinions in any gun rights case I’ve ever read,” said SAF founder and Executive Vice President Alan M. Gottlieb. “He has detailed the issue, provided the history and offered a perspective that doesn’t bow to political correctness.”

    They ruling lays out the metaphorical red carpet for an additional appeal: (2)

    The panel majority went on to point out that, even pre-dating the ratification of the U.S. Constitution and the Second Amendment within, 11 of the 13 original colonies had militia laws with an age threshold of 16 years to bear arms while the two outliers, Delaware and Pennsylvania, recognized age 18.

    One can predict the Leftoid reaction to a case allowing individuals under 18 to buy guns. Yet they are simultaneously saying the same group has sufficient decision making prowess to change genders. The hypocrisy will be entertainment.

    PEACE 😇
    ___________

    (1) https://www.ammoland.com/2021/07/gun-owners-hail-monumental-victory-for-gun-rights-in-4th-circuit-ruling/

    (2) https://www.guns.com/news/2021/07/14/court-finds-federal-21-and-over-law-on-handguns-unconstitutional

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    I have long thought that gun rights would be the last stand of implicit American identity. It cuts across class, racial, geographic, and even partisan lines.

  35. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My perspective is not one of building great, world-beating countries. I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

    Nonetheless, the US is well-placed to 'perform" well. I believe there is a general trend towards higher fertility for educated women, probably because of better technology. I also see that the US will continue to attract the cognitive elite to move there from everywhere, including China, for the indefinite future.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Svevlad, @Passer by

    I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

    Interestingly, but I once thought up a scenario of some sort of hyper-oppressive government or AI that’s also at the same time benevolent. So how could this be?

    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity, freedom and security, they need to be liberated from everything, including government. So basically anarchy. Except, anarchy doesn’t provide for security, and doesn’t last long. People have needs they can’t fulfill themselves.

    Therefore, they need to actually be made as self-sufficient as possible. By any means necessary, and as quickly as possible. You don’t need to govern gods.

    Therefore, to accomplish this, an incredibly oppressive system that’s practically the exact opposite of what you prefer is instituted, where everyone’s lives revolve constantly and exclusively on improving themselves by any means necessary. This could last centuries.

    The catch is, is it worth, to doom billions, trillions even, to a lifetime of suffering, so that their descendants become basically godlike and have no needs at all which they can’t provide for themselves (sustenance/shelter/water etc) apart from socialization, allowing them to truly fully express their potential and creativity?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    Yes, people have been grappling with whether great benefit makes great evil worthwhile for a long time. I understand why, but all of that stuff seems very tiring to me, and distracting from what actually exists.

    I am simpler. I just see people as on their individual journeys and that they may need a little push, here and there, to self-reflect along the way, with the culture being nudged towards basic tolerance, proficiency and respect for freedom.

    I do have ideas about how a government may better achieve this, but I also recognise that my ideas have less epistemological legitimacy than the general conglomeration of ideas which result in real world policy.

    That doesn't mean I can't disagree with it, as I have a voice and must respect myself, but it also means I need not get too upset by all of what I perceive as nonsense.

    Sometimes people choose darkness, because that is what they need, and I cannot be expected to pull them out of it. Trying to hard to do so will only dim me, and freak them out.

    Observe people, report back to them what you and perhaps take their chain of thought one step forward. That's about as much as I want to do, never can do, otherwise I would be taking their own meaning away from them.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Svevlad


    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity
     
    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

    https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/why-imposing-restrictions-can-actually-boost-creativity

    Replies: @Abelard Lindsey, @dfordoom

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Your mindset is basically no different from the WEF, and maybe even more extreme than theirs (at least they are supposed to deal with social problems in a self-serving way while you are all about ruining people in the medium-term)

    There is no social model that is preferrable or conductive to human flourishing, but what will exist as human adaptation to changing circumstances. Don't mandate a model, observe and act, and maybe predict. This is why fundamentally, both the Great Reset and Great Awakening are wrong.

    Replies: @Svevlad

  36. @A123
    The dramatically under reported story of the week (1)

    The Second Amendment Foundation said this week’s ruling by the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals declaring the ban on handgun sales to young adults in the 18-20-year age group to be unconstitutional is a “monumental victory for Second Amendment rights.”

    Judge Julius N. Richardson, writing for the majority, observed, “Looking through this historical lens to the text and structure of the Constitution reveals that 18- to 20-year-olds have Second Amendment rights. Virtually every other constitutional right applies whatever the age. And the Second Amendment is no different.”

    “Judge Richardson, in my estimation, has authored one of the best-written opinions in any gun rights case I’ve ever read,” said SAF founder and Executive Vice President Alan M. Gottlieb. “He has detailed the issue, provided the history and offered a perspective that doesn’t bow to political correctness.”
     

     
    They ruling lays out the metaphorical red carpet for an additional appeal: (2)

    The panel majority went on to point out that, even pre-dating the ratification of the U.S. Constitution and the Second Amendment within, 11 of the 13 original colonies had militia laws with an age threshold of 16 years to bear arms while the two outliers, Delaware and Pennsylvania, recognized age 18.
     
    One can predict the Leftoid reaction to a case allowing individuals under 18 to buy guns. Yet they are simultaneously saying the same group has sufficient decision making prowess to change genders. The hypocrisy will be entertainment.

    PEACE 😇
    ___________

    (1) https://www.ammoland.com/2021/07/gun-owners-hail-monumental-victory-for-gun-rights-in-4th-circuit-ruling/

    (2) https://www.guns.com/news/2021/07/14/court-finds-federal-21-and-over-law-on-handguns-unconstitutional

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    I have long thought that gun rights would be the last stand of implicit American identity. It cuts across class, racial, geographic, and even partisan lines.

    • Agree: sher singh, Yellowface Anon, Boomthorkell
    • Thanks: A123
  37. @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.
     
    Interestingly, but I once thought up a scenario of some sort of hyper-oppressive government or AI that's also at the same time benevolent. So how could this be?

    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity, freedom and security, they need to be liberated from everything, including government. So basically anarchy. Except, anarchy doesn't provide for security, and doesn't last long. People have needs they can't fulfill themselves.

    Therefore, they need to actually be made as self-sufficient as possible. By any means necessary, and as quickly as possible. You don't need to govern gods.

    Therefore, to accomplish this, an incredibly oppressive system that's practically the exact opposite of what you prefer is instituted, where everyone's lives revolve constantly and exclusively on improving themselves by any means necessary. This could last centuries.

    The catch is, is it worth, to doom billions, trillions even, to a lifetime of suffering, so that their descendants become basically godlike and have no needs at all which they can't provide for themselves (sustenance/shelter/water etc) apart from socialization, allowing them to truly fully express their potential and creativity?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh, @Yellowface Anon

    Yes, people have been grappling with whether great benefit makes great evil worthwhile for a long time. I understand why, but all of that stuff seems very tiring to me, and distracting from what actually exists.

    I am simpler. I just see people as on their individual journeys and that they may need a little push, here and there, to self-reflect along the way, with the culture being nudged towards basic tolerance, proficiency and respect for freedom.

    I do have ideas about how a government may better achieve this, but I also recognise that my ideas have less epistemological legitimacy than the general conglomeration of ideas which result in real world policy.

    That doesn’t mean I can’t disagree with it, as I have a voice and must respect myself, but it also means I need not get too upset by all of what I perceive as nonsense.

    Sometimes people choose darkness, because that is what they need, and I cannot be expected to pull them out of it. Trying to hard to do so will only dim me, and freak them out.

    Observe people, report back to them what you and perhaps take their chain of thought one step forward. That’s about as much as I want to do, never can do, otherwise I would be taking their own meaning away from them.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.
     
    Genshin/Honkai Impact and Girl's Frontline, both Chinese games, have gigantic fanbases - iirc, Girl's Frontline recently beat out Touhou as the largest and most active fanbase. A lot of the fanbase is obviously American, as you can see yourself:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/

    The censorship is not always that strict, let's put it that way.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

  38. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The former might be correct (though the Great Awokening might be reversing things even as we speak - all these 666 gender memes affect the "educated" to a greater extent than the proles), but I think the latter is a tall order, whatever one's thoughts on America's trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Boomthorkell

    whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.

    There’s still a lot who stay in the US, and there’s plenty of cognitively elite people in lots of other countries.

    Furthermore, the US is exciting and fun. Staying in China is safe and homely.

    Hayek got it right when he pointed out that modern economies run on information. The US is great at this, and has positioned itself extremely well to take advantage of it in the future.

    Take computer games. I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with. This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market. Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

    This means, that in many different ways, China is cut off from global information streams, from which the highest level of development is drunk, while the US is the country which all of them actually flow through.

    I appreciate that the above point is not very fleshed out, but it is only just coalescing as a clear image in my head. I will reflect on it.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa

    No vampires w/ blood in Europe? Doubt it. Did the EU furries get an upgrade to their autism again?

    Anyways, the BIG titles all come out of America, but they're kinda bland, just like blockbuster movies. True artistic, soulful games, even if a bit janky, seem to come from the East, and not including the Japanese crappy grindfests weebs jack off to - titles like Pathologic, The Void, Underrail, the Witcher, Serious Sam.

    Granted, it was directed and designed by an American expat adequately named American, but the Chinese also gave us the underrated gem of 2011, Alice: Madness Returns, which is simply a beautiful game, even if weakened by EA's interference.

    The US and satraps - seem to be running on fumes when it comes to actual creativity. It's either stifled to maximize cash grabs, or butchered by wokeoids, or doesn't even try. Few strong exceptions, like Valve, but there's still no that feel in many of them, you know.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Jaakko Raipala
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Take computer games.
     
    That's one industry which is beginning to get dominated by China.

    I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with.
     
    This is a good thing as they censor all the woke ideology that ruined Western games. I've been playing Genshin Impact lately and it's so refreshing to not have multiracial gay polyamorous romances in my silly bit of relaxing entertainment. It's a huge hit that definitely proves that Chinese gaming industry is ready to take on the West although it's also an example of things that are popular with Chinese gamers and not with Western gamers (gacha + mobile focus).

    Predictable censorship by the all powerful Party (or King or whoever) can be good for creativity because it lets the artist figure out the game of getting as close to the line as possible and finding creative ways to get the message to the viewer past the censors. De jure freedom of speech but de facto censorship by activist fanatics like in the West leads to much wider sanitization (since no one can predict who the fanatics come for next) and companies filling their products with pre-emptive pandering to the woke mob.

    This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market.
     
    The biggest problem that China has in exporting video games is that they jumped straight past the personal computer and console cultures that the West and Japan experienced and developed a tech culture mainly for smartphones. We find it a downgrade to game on a phone compared to a PC or a console but the Chinese don't because they skipped that whole era and went straight from villages with no electricity to the smartphone era.
    , @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    America has defaults set on "public squalor; private wealth" and "high risk; high reward".

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has "public wealth, private modesty" and "low risk, low reward. .

    America's defaults result contribute to the sense it is a very dysfunctional, dystopian, seeming land, for its ordinary and low income population - but for skilled labour, in profitable professions, America's "high risk, high reward" setting can create a very attractive immigration package.

    For people who are skilled in their profession, then the rewards can be highest in the US labour market, and the marginal taxes won't remove most of your income in the higher tax bands either.

    If you wanted a more normal seeming, developed country, that approximates what a developed country should look like, then you would try to go to somewhere like Denmark. But for people who are in profitable skilled professions (which have the most emigration opportunities), then the risk/reward balance is quite favouring to work in the USA, despite all the horror and dystopia the country's lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.

    Elon Musk is an example of an immigrant who was rewarded by, and also seems to have psychologically internalized, America's unusual settings. For example, Tesla has refused to develop an electric autobus, because Elon Musk has said that he dislikes public transport, autobuses and train (in America, public buses can be viewed as "for losers", and this conveniently matches the society's disinclination to invest a higher proportion of its wealth in publicly accessible goods).

    Replies: @Svevlad, @AP, @utu

  39. @A123

    * The Economist notes that the Italian team that took the Euro 2020 was all white.
     
    Good spot by AK.

    Does anyone else remember decades ago when The Economist was credible? Now, they are more cringe worthy than The New York Times... Which takes *real* effort.

    I picked out the retweet below a couple days ago planning for my:

    😆 Weekly Open Thread Humor [WOTH] 😂

    As some have commented on animations, three GIF's are below the [MORE] tag.

    I have no idea who the child & parents are #3, but that is real creativity on display.

    PEACE 😇

    https://twitter.com/WonderDoge1/status/1415255291935944704?s=20



     
    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DrBiffks-68/YO3B0xYwyWI/AAAAAAAC0qA/SG79VTs5MD0WUyRpmG6GTdJSZgFoNf0PQCLcBGAsYHQ/s481/1%2B1%2Bdgdfgdccvbcxvbcbgdfg.gif

     
    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x4MfWVz2unc/YOrrWXksG8I/AAAAAAAA6DI/51j3TqTLff0heabj0JoFkYZ3q_j3oXj9gCLcBGAsYHQ/s690/m19.gif

     
    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7T_BcRhJNHU/YO2ER3RC0QI/AAAAAAAA6Ks/lDgixRY3l5g6_vT1iXJ9GLsAzy6slUY3gCLcBGAsYHQ/s260/daily_gifdump_3579_03.gif

    Replies: @kzn

    No joke – I was very surprised, though in a good way.

    All the big football teams have extensive scouting networks and Italy has had a fairly large surge in African migrants this millenium. Its no secret that lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages ( much easier to identify a good youth athlete and convert him into a semi-decent footballer who can be sold for a big profit, than it is to identify a great pure football-talent kid)…… so you would have expected a result of these processes to be Italia having some generic big, strong and quick Africans in their team.

    The composition of the squad is very unusual in that they are from all parts of Italy from a club perspective, with many not even at good performing clubs. Spain, as with Italy also appears with their football team to be reversing the political/social trends in their country-the 1 African guy in the squad didn’t even play in the tournament.

    France, even though historically they have been successful in the big football tournaments, often look very ugly and disjointed in their football style – most probably because of all the different whites, Arabs and Africans they have. Italia looked very much a true team, very good to watch

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @kzn


    ...lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages
     
    Most scouts are lazy: any open-ended work will promote stereotyping and laziness. A world with an infinite competition leads to decrease in meritocracy - replaced with biases, connections and lottery. We can consider merit when there are 5-10 options, when we have 100-1000 possibilities there is no room for it.

    Italy has kept enough of its tribal mentality and is one of the bright spots in EU. It is hard to comprehend what happened in the Germanic-Celtic northwest of EU - within a generation or two a massive dead-enders tsunami has devastated the societies there.

    Replies: @kzn

  40. @Triteleia Laxa
    The type of anti-Semitism displayed, by people like Langdon, is that which comes from a tiny number of status obsessed English bumpkins, always rejected and maligned by their peers, who have discovered a tiny shred of aristocracy in their otherwise ignoble lineage, leading them to delusions of natural leadership, if only it weren't for (((them))).

    You can occasionally meet one, at an expensive club in London, which they can't afford, and no one cool wants to go to anyway, wherein they thinly disguise their fretting over their declasse life, by name-dropping irrelevant minor peers.

    It isn't that they are actually stupid and it isn't that they are actually failures, it is just that they have made certain quieter choices in life, but don't know it yet. In their confusion, in the meantime, it is good that they can find relief, by occasionally putting on a tweed jacket and strolling around like the bad guys from Caddyshack.

    It is a weakly rational version of undergoing past life regression, imagining yourself an Aztec Princess, and then spending decades obsessing over evil Conquistadors; except the Jews are no Conquistadors. The Conquistadors did actually take control of their societies and were as charismatic and handsome as they were cruel. The real Jews in the English elite tend to enter like all middle class strivers who succeed, get rich on something, send their children to "public" schools, be blended away and in.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Triteleia Laxa, @Philip Owen

    I am actually sorry for my comment. It was far too harsh and on the nose. I guess I miss 1960s London too. When rents in Cadogan Square were affordable and you could park outside your favourite nightclub, before driving home on genteel streets. I was born decades later, but I’ve heard the stories and it all sounds great.

  41. @AaronB
    @songbird

    These dreams of maximizing a single quality strike me as based on a very deep mistake.

    Things are holistic - they come in sets, in "clusters". You can't have the good without the bad.

    You can't simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it's relationship to everything else in it's cluster.

    Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining. If you wish one, you wish the other.

    Replies: @songbird, @Daniel Chieh, @Almost Missouri

    You can’t simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it’s relationship to everything else in it’s cluster.

    This is my fear as well, especially with the brain. And suppose you could somehow add the two things together, without one affecting the other, then would the rest of the body even match up with it? Would the volume of the skull be large enough? The neck strong enough? Would the root metabolism be sufficient to feed it?

    [MORE]

    I tend to be a bit skeptical of the Hsu argument that we can increase IQ to the same degree that we’ve increased crop yields. Maybe, we can make everyone a genius, but not an ultra super-genius. And making everyone a genius might have social costs as well. Some theorize that geniuses function for the good of society, and are not good at passing down their own seed.

    Of course, I wouldn’t describe myself as a radical transhumanist, in the same vein as some others here. It appeals more to my imagination than it does to my spirit, small areas of peculiar interest aside. Though, I am very enthusiastic about improving dogs, as I see it as a spiritual continuation of what we have done in the past. And the same is true to a smaller degree with other animals.

    Like, imagine a cat that was naturally immune to toxoplasmosis and did not make cat ladies even crazier. Another idea might be to make a cat that didn’t hunt birds. I understand cats kill billions of birds every year, and some are rare.

  42. @Svevlad
    @songbird

    Yes, you could.

    The only reason why for example we don't have gorilla strength is because we had to specialize for more brain. With selective breeding, this can be reversed, as due to modern agriculture, that is obsolete. We can have absolutely ludicrous gains "naturally."

    Now, the problem with Abos - is that there's an absolutely hilariously ungodly small amount of purebloods left. Albeit with inserting all the larpwhites into the group I think something could be made...

    Replies: @songbird

    I think it was Greg Cochran who had the idea of making super Neanderthals. I don’t know if there is really enough ancient DNA to do it, even if we could. But I think it would be a pretty interesting idea, to try to make a Neanderthal Newton.

    Maybe, the unique qualities of the Neanderthal brain would mean that such a genius would make unique discoveries. Or maybe, he would be an evil genius who wants revenge on us for displacing his relatives.

  43. @songbird
    Here's another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

    And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

    Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Svevlad, @Daniel Chieh, @silviosilver, @Joe Paluka, @Alfa158

    Some of it is possible, but its rarely that simple. High altitude tolerance is something that has been looked into, I believe, as it is pretty distinctive.

    https://theconversation.com/mixed-ancestry-genetic-research-shows-a-bit-of-native-american-dna-could-reduce-risk-of-alzheimers-disease-159118

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Daniel Chieh

    What the Andeans have is different from what the Tibetans have. It is the quick and dirty solution, if you like, compared to the Tibetans who got theirs from Denisovans living on the Tibetan Plateau for hundreds of thousands of years. It definitely has costs, as well as benefits.

    BTW, I heard an interesting theory about intelligence recently. Supposedly, very smart people tend to have more autoimmune diseases. One theory is that intelligence - the extra awareness - somehow impinges on the body's homeostatic mechanisms, throwing them out of wack. Of course, this might be a limitation for trying to make super intelligent humans.

    I also found this interesting link about height and longevity in humans:
    https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2013/08/the-cost-of-being-tall-is-a-shorter-life-expectancy/

    What bowled me over was this:


    Among Sardinian soldiers who reach the age of 70, for example, those below approximately 5-foot-4 live two years longer than their taller brothers-in-arms.
     
    Sardinians are the shortest Europeans, and they have the same number of centenarians as Okinawa. And more of them are men! Though, I believe pygmies age fast.
  44. @AaronB
    @songbird

    These dreams of maximizing a single quality strike me as based on a very deep mistake.

    Things are holistic - they come in sets, in "clusters". You can't have the good without the bad.

    You can't simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it's relationship to everything else in it's cluster.

    Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining. If you wish one, you wish the other.

    Replies: @songbird, @Daniel Chieh, @Almost Missouri

    Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining.

    Not all downsides at applicable in modern society; e.g. many animal models do not maximize brainpower since it is extremely calorically costly. Humanity is not generally limited by calories.

    That said, a lot of traits are complex. Simply classifying them as “good” or “bad” is not very useful, and there are certainly possibilities for optimization(e.g. even traditional breeding).

  45. @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.
     
    Interestingly, but I once thought up a scenario of some sort of hyper-oppressive government or AI that's also at the same time benevolent. So how could this be?

    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity, freedom and security, they need to be liberated from everything, including government. So basically anarchy. Except, anarchy doesn't provide for security, and doesn't last long. People have needs they can't fulfill themselves.

    Therefore, they need to actually be made as self-sufficient as possible. By any means necessary, and as quickly as possible. You don't need to govern gods.

    Therefore, to accomplish this, an incredibly oppressive system that's practically the exact opposite of what you prefer is instituted, where everyone's lives revolve constantly and exclusively on improving themselves by any means necessary. This could last centuries.

    The catch is, is it worth, to doom billions, trillions even, to a lifetime of suffering, so that their descendants become basically godlike and have no needs at all which they can't provide for themselves (sustenance/shelter/water etc) apart from socialization, allowing them to truly fully express their potential and creativity?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh, @Yellowface Anon

    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity

    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

    https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/why-imposing-restrictions-can-actually-boost-creativity

    • Replies: @Abelard Lindsey
    @Daniel Chieh

    This is about natural limitations. For example, a start up entrepreneur being limited by how much money he can get from investors and on what terms. This is not about the current BS of political factions attempting to impose artificial limitations in the form of taxation, socialist economic policies, "woke" sjw bullshit, and the like. The first set are a part of reality. The second set has no validity whatsoever.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @dfordoom
    @Daniel Chieh


    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.
     
    It's not surprising at all really. Not to me anyway. I've always believed that complete freedom is disastrous for creativity.

    The idea that freedom is good for creativity is a hippie-dippie idea.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

  46. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.
     
    There's still a lot who stay in the US, and there's plenty of cognitively elite people in lots of other countries.

    Furthermore, the US is exciting and fun. Staying in China is safe and homely.

    Hayek got it right when he pointed out that modern economies run on information. The US is great at this, and has positioned itself extremely well to take advantage of it in the future.

    Take computer games. I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with. This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market. Chinese products simply can't be as interesting to most other places - they can't even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

    This means, that in many different ways, China is cut off from global information streams, from which the highest level of development is drunk, while the US is the country which all of them actually flow through.

    I appreciate that the above point is not very fleshed out, but it is only just coalescing as a clear image in my head. I will reflect on it.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Jaakko Raipala, @Dmitry

    No vampires w/ blood in Europe? Doubt it. Did the EU furries get an upgrade to their autism again?

    Anyways, the BIG titles all come out of America, but they’re kinda bland, just like blockbuster movies. True artistic, soulful games, even if a bit janky, seem to come from the East, and not including the Japanese crappy grindfests weebs jack off to – titles like Pathologic, The Void, Underrail, the Witcher, Serious Sam.

    Granted, it was directed and designed by an American expat adequately named American, but the Chinese also gave us the underrated gem of 2011, Alice: Madness Returns, which is simply a beautiful game, even if weakened by EA’s interference.

    The US and satraps – seem to be running on fumes when it comes to actual creativity. It’s either stifled to maximize cash grabs, or butchered by wokeoids, or doesn’t even try. Few strong exceptions, like Valve, but there’s still no that feel in many of them, you know.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    Sorry, no vampires with blood in China, which is an example of the Chinese ruining their own creativity for the European market.

    Chinese censorship of video games is very extreme. It is also extreme in other areas, but this is where the producers have to expend most effort to avoid it.

    Weirdly, they allow foreign Steam to work, but who knows for how long. For games to pass censorship, you can have no blood, of any colour, no people coming out of the ground, no cults, no politics and a whole bunch of other restrictions, none of which they make clear. Put your game in front the censors 3 times, and fail, and that's it.

    It is a huge and odd country, which almost no one foreign begins to understand. It is also incubating some serious weirdness; which makes sense for 1.4 billion people, which is a lot more than the US, the Anglosphere and Europe, combined.

    Replies: @Wency

  47. @Daniel Chieh
    @songbird

    Some of it is possible, but its rarely that simple. High altitude tolerance is something that has been looked into, I believe, as it is pretty distinctive.

    https://theconversation.com/mixed-ancestry-genetic-research-shows-a-bit-of-native-american-dna-could-reduce-risk-of-alzheimers-disease-159118

    Replies: @songbird

    What the Andeans have is different from what the Tibetans have. It is the quick and dirty solution, if you like, compared to the Tibetans who got theirs from Denisovans living on the Tibetan Plateau for hundreds of thousands of years. It definitely has costs, as well as benefits.

    BTW, I heard an interesting theory about intelligence recently. Supposedly, very smart people tend to have more autoimmune diseases. One theory is that intelligence – the extra awareness – somehow impinges on the body’s homeostatic mechanisms, throwing them out of wack. Of course, this might be a limitation for trying to make super intelligent humans.

    [MORE]

    I also found this interesting link about height and longevity in humans:
    https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2013/08/the-cost-of-being-tall-is-a-shorter-life-expectancy/

    What bowled me over was this:

    Among Sardinian soldiers who reach the age of 70, for example, those below approximately 5-foot-4 live two years longer than their taller brothers-in-arms.

    Sardinians are the shortest Europeans, and they have the same number of centenarians as Okinawa. And more of them are men! Though, I believe pygmies age fast.

  48. Wasbappin’s Substack should be required reading for the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian high command. BTW I have also started my own Substack, I expect my first post there by the end of the month:

    https://eharding.substack.com/p/coming-soon

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  49. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    Yes, people have been grappling with whether great benefit makes great evil worthwhile for a long time. I understand why, but all of that stuff seems very tiring to me, and distracting from what actually exists.

    I am simpler. I just see people as on their individual journeys and that they may need a little push, here and there, to self-reflect along the way, with the culture being nudged towards basic tolerance, proficiency and respect for freedom.

    I do have ideas about how a government may better achieve this, but I also recognise that my ideas have less epistemological legitimacy than the general conglomeration of ideas which result in real world policy.

    That doesn't mean I can't disagree with it, as I have a voice and must respect myself, but it also means I need not get too upset by all of what I perceive as nonsense.

    Sometimes people choose darkness, because that is what they need, and I cannot be expected to pull them out of it. Trying to hard to do so will only dim me, and freak them out.

    Observe people, report back to them what you and perhaps take their chain of thought one step forward. That's about as much as I want to do, never can do, otherwise I would be taking their own meaning away from them.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

    Genshin/Honkai Impact and Girl’s Frontline, both Chinese games, have gigantic fanbases – iirc, Girl’s Frontline recently beat out Touhou as the largest and most active fanbase. A lot of the fanbase is obviously American, as you can see yourself:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/

    The censorship is not always that strict, let’s put it that way.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    Go watch Kemono Friends. It isn't about a bunch of Animal Girls, but a tale of post-catastrophic natural lives, human self-discovery and garden-variety Platonism (in the lore)

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They're always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite. Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

    I see US progressives, for the last few decades, not as making the future, but as seeing where it is going and placing themselves where best to take advantage. They occasionally slip up, like they did with assuming that men's and women's athletics records would fully converge, but they swiftly reposition and later reap the rewards.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  50. @Daniel Chieh
    @Svevlad


    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity
     
    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

    https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/why-imposing-restrictions-can-actually-boost-creativity

    Replies: @Abelard Lindsey, @dfordoom

    This is about natural limitations. For example, a start up entrepreneur being limited by how much money he can get from investors and on what terms. This is not about the current BS of political factions attempting to impose artificial limitations in the form of taxation, socialist economic policies, “woke” sjw bullshit, and the like. The first set are a part of reality. The second set has no validity whatsoever.

    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Abelard Lindsey

    I'm not saying that the current throttle is good, but the article clearly indicates cultural(or even voluntary) restrictions inspiring more creativity.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Abelard Lindsey

  51. I’m. Yet the number of asians in the US is estimated to increase as Asian immigration is overtaking Latino immigration and starts to dominate US population inflows.

    With some exceptions, I have no problem with Asian immigration.

    Immigration restrictionism is breaking up into two distinct groups. Those who look at immigration in terms of human capital for productive accomplishment and those who look at it in terms of culture and ethnicity as a value independent of human capital for productive accomplishment. Those in the first camp tend to look down on those in the second camp.

  52. In the 90’s I decided the ideal human society is 80% East Asian pragmatism and 20% Western Heinleinian libertarianism, assuming currently existing humans. I have not experienced for a nanosecond anything that could ever change my mind on this.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Abelard Lindsey

    AK: Such comments aren't productive. Don't do this again.


    In the 90’s I decided the ideal human society is 80% East Asian pragmatism and 20% Western Heinleinian libertarianism, assuming currently existing humans. I have not experienced for a nanosecond anything that could ever change my mind on this.
     
    I think a hollow-point administered through the roof of your mouth would change your mind.
    , @sher singh
    @Abelard Lindsey

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fGVEtSPk-A

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTUI4gU8dWw

    96% Khalsa, 4% rest.

    Effort post on Internal Demographics/immigration, Global Liberalism & Bantu-dom below



    South Africa 20% white in 1904, 10%ish today, finally war.
    Liberal elites secure, they're centuries from that & big gulf in Jiziya and genocide
    Without outside backing minorities intermarry & become defanged
    With Liberalism there’s a standard template & 1-2 allowable exceptions per state:
    Proles (via elites) consolidate around standard and signal against 1-2 issues.

    USA: brown people (muslims)
    Russia: gays
    China: blacks
    India: atheism
    EU: hijabs

    Liberalism wanes but more buy in (KSA) and more exceptions per state can be allowed.
    Liberalism rules through this global standard + local exception model.
    Liberalism built on indus bureaucracy & mass media we need high tfr, culture & prod
    None of that in any single or group of states so Liberalism will be default for C+
    https://web.archive.org/web/20180202082106/https://reactionaryfuture.wordpress.com/2016/10/19/the-common-root-of-all-modern-political-discourse/


    Liberalism is defined as honor killing being ‘illegal’. Bantus TFR 4 vs 2 Ms, 1.5 Eurasia
    Generation away from manpower to invade world but build up takes awhile.
    For example Europe is Century+ from 25% Islam
    I don't know if genocides are on the table, but you can just sit on the floor. :shrug:


    All along the platform, she later wrote, blue-turbaned Sikhs sat cross-legged, their curved kirpans across their knees, patiently waiting for the next arriving Special.
     
    Sikhs and other seem to advance to liberal lines but no logistics to cross
    For example, they snatch Muslim girls & surround Delhi but can't burn Mecca/Modi, yet.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottishSikh/status/1380469448855916545

    Guru Nanak Dev walked into Mecca as a non-Muslim and openly asserted Dharma.
     
    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
  53. @Anatoly Karlin
    @inertial


    I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.
     
    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can't even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters... It's a free market, I don't really see a "problem" either. 🤷‍♂️

    I am not near audacious or amoral enough to even think of running such schemes on my audience. That said, I do reserve the right to "sneer" at the chumps who keep falling for these grifts, just like the SJWs sending their paychecks to their respective scammers and grifters are also funny. Probably this makes me the greater fool, after all, Candace, D’Souza, Jack Posobiec, etc. make much more money than me and get the deep respect of the people they scam, while I get called a spiteful mongrel on my own blog.

    But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.
     
    They are not intellectuals. Some of them might be clever, but they are political operatives, the mirror image of the MAGA grifters. There are plenty of intellectually honest thinkers on the progressive Left as well, the likes of Greenwald, Michael Tracey, and many others.

    Replies: @A123, @inertial, @Not Raul

    Hanania reminds me of old penniless aristocrat sneering at entrepreneurs. Selling stuff that people might need is an uncouth way to make money! It’s practically stealing! The only genteel way to earn a living is inherit from a rich uncle work in academia or a think tank. Selling phones is grift but asking for grants is NOT grift!

    So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that’s not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?

    This reminds me of how they used to laugh at Fox News when it just opened. And true, in its early years the channel was an absolute amateur hour; CNN was ahead by leaps and bounds. But eventually they stopped sneering and started seething, which is what they do to this day.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    @inertial


    So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that’s not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?
     
    The Freedom Phone guy didn’t develop a product. It’s a Chinese phone. It already existed.

    The piss poor security of the Twitter clones isn’t something that can be laughed off. Their promoters abused the trust of the MAGA cultists. They thought that the grifters had their back. Now their data is in the hands of people who want to ruin them.

    And another thing: Do you go out of your way to sound so patronizing, or does it come naturally?

    Replies: @inertial

  54. @Anatoly Karlin
    @inertial


    I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.
     
    Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can't even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters... It's a free market, I don't really see a "problem" either. 🤷‍♂️

    I am not near audacious or amoral enough to even think of running such schemes on my audience. That said, I do reserve the right to "sneer" at the chumps who keep falling for these grifts, just like the SJWs sending their paychecks to their respective scammers and grifters are also funny. Probably this makes me the greater fool, after all, Candace, D’Souza, Jack Posobiec, etc. make much more money than me and get the deep respect of the people they scam, while I get called a spiteful mongrel on my own blog.

    But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.
     
    They are not intellectuals. Some of them might be clever, but they are political operatives, the mirror image of the MAGA grifters. There are plenty of intellectually honest thinkers on the progressive Left as well, the likes of Greenwald, Michael Tracey, and many others.

    Replies: @A123, @inertial, @Not Raul

    I agree!

    (I already used up my reaction comments)

    It’s interesting how grifters get so much more respect than honest people.

    I for one am grateful for the content you provide.

    If I’m ever in Moscow, I’ll stand you a pint.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  55. @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa

    No vampires w/ blood in Europe? Doubt it. Did the EU furries get an upgrade to their autism again?

    Anyways, the BIG titles all come out of America, but they're kinda bland, just like blockbuster movies. True artistic, soulful games, even if a bit janky, seem to come from the East, and not including the Japanese crappy grindfests weebs jack off to - titles like Pathologic, The Void, Underrail, the Witcher, Serious Sam.

    Granted, it was directed and designed by an American expat adequately named American, but the Chinese also gave us the underrated gem of 2011, Alice: Madness Returns, which is simply a beautiful game, even if weakened by EA's interference.

    The US and satraps - seem to be running on fumes when it comes to actual creativity. It's either stifled to maximize cash grabs, or butchered by wokeoids, or doesn't even try. Few strong exceptions, like Valve, but there's still no that feel in many of them, you know.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Sorry, no vampires with blood in China, which is an example of the Chinese ruining their own creativity for the European market.

    Chinese censorship of video games is very extreme. It is also extreme in other areas, but this is where the producers have to expend most effort to avoid it.

    Weirdly, they allow foreign Steam to work, but who knows for how long. For games to pass censorship, you can have no blood, of any colour, no people coming out of the ground, no cults, no politics and a whole bunch of other restrictions, none of which they make clear. Put your game in front the censors 3 times, and fail, and that’s it.

    It is a huge and odd country, which almost no one foreign begins to understand. It is also incubating some serious weirdness; which makes sense for 1.4 billion people, which is a lot more than the US, the Anglosphere and Europe, combined.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Overall, I think these are good points. US culture is able to appeal to much of the world, both because it's already a simpler and more syncretic sort of culture, and because most of the world already at least somewhat relates to European-descended culture because it was colonized by Europe, and therefore European culture has been high-status for a long time.

    I continue to be of the view that quality of life will deteriorate pretty continuously in the US, but I don't think the US state is going to implode (there are too many powerful interests that enjoy seeing it hold together and too few interested in implosion), and I think immigrants will be mostly incorporated into the US economy. Though I do envision a scenario where this fact allows budgets for the US military to continue to expand, even as morale and other factors decline interminably.

    In the long run, the world will be inherited by the breeders, and that change will transform societies the world over. But 21st-century China vs. US is ultimately just a competition between decadent low-TFR empires -- Byzantium vs. Persia, if you will. Neither one can truly dominate the other, unless it can break out of that mold (or its adversary collapses).

    Replies: @Xi-jinping

  56. @inertial
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Hanania reminds me of old penniless aristocrat sneering at entrepreneurs. Selling stuff that people might need is an uncouth way to make money! It's practically stealing! The only genteel way to earn a living is inherit from a rich uncle work in academia or a think tank. Selling phones is grift but asking for grants is NOT grift!

    So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that's not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?

    This reminds me of how they used to laugh at Fox News when it just opened. And true, in its early years the channel was an absolute amateur hour; CNN was ahead by leaps and bounds. But eventually they stopped sneering and started seething, which is what they do to this day.

    Replies: @Not Raul

    So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that’s not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?

    The Freedom Phone guy didn’t develop a product. It’s a Chinese phone. It already existed.

    The piss poor security of the Twitter clones isn’t something that can be laughed off. Their promoters abused the trust of the MAGA cultists. They thought that the grifters had their back. Now their data is in the hands of people who want to ruin them.

    And another thing: Do you go out of your way to sound so patronizing, or does it come naturally?

    • Replies: @inertial
    @Not Raul

    Funny how you think that I am the one who sounds patronizing and not the people who like to sneer at peasants.

    As for the phone, it's actually not a bad idea. The product here, of course, is not the phone itself but the bundle of apps. It could be a great help for non-technical normies who want to escape the grip of the tech monopolies but wouldn't know how to do it by themselves. Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure. But eventually someone will get it right.

    Replies: @Not Raul

  57. There very little value in the genomics data even if they were collected for the whole humanity. Almost anything that is single-gene and matters was discovered, and none of the current DNA analyses can do gene-gene interactions. There is no statistical power to analyze the interaction between 6 million times 6 million pairs of SNPs, and, for some reason, there is no procedure to whittle down the set of pairs to a meaningful subset.

    Also, “big data” is just a pile of data: if it is representative, samples can be small; if it’s not representative, the conclusions will be misleading.

    It takes a old billionaire with little self-respect to sell 23andme or similar companies. It takes a setup like the one when Murdoch was bullied into buying Myspace, just because “it’s new and better”.

  58. @Daniel Chieh
    @Svevlad


    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity
     
    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

    https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/why-imposing-restrictions-can-actually-boost-creativity

    Replies: @Abelard Lindsey, @dfordoom

    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

    It’s not surprising at all really. Not to me anyway. I’ve always believed that complete freedom is disastrous for creativity.

    The idea that freedom is good for creativity is a hippie-dippie idea.

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @dfordoom

    Soviet music did improve when Stalin set actual (read: traditional) music standards.

    Obviously, there is some balance that is needed. I bet the ideal varies for the individual and the culture.

  59. thanks for posting the newly listed equities. You have strong enough predictive ability that I’ll just throw some cash at these for a few years and then hold them. (I want to encourage guys here to not sell assets unless selling gets them F.U. money, hold, never sell). Really like the idea of buying Yandex, which you brought up, will be plowing cash into that just as soon as I’m done with my current crypto buying goal.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    They're not really buy recommendations - just things that I consider to be of note and worth looking into, but not necessarily something to buy. I'm not planning to acquire any of them right now FWIW, stocks in general seem overheated.

    Transferwise (Wise) is 3x lower than Revolut on both p/e and mc, though Revolut has twice as many clients. OTOH, Revolut is aiming to be a full-fledged financial services provider, providing insurance, loans, stocks, even cryptos, etc., while Wise seems more exclusively focused on its original core competence of international transfers and remittances. Fintech in general is exploding (Revolut was $5B last year, now it's $33B; Tinkoff quadrupled), but how long will this last? I'm wary of investing much into such an overheated space and in fact recently sold off the last of my Tinkoff stocks.

    EMH: $1B for 12 clinics, even quite high quality one, seems a bit on the high side. OTOH, some private hospital chains in China are worth $30-50B. But I don't know enough about this sector to be comfortable about investing.

    23andme might be the most speculative. Could 100x eventually, if Genetics Revolution pans out and it becomes something like the premier social graph for genomics. Or it could crab indefinitely. Customer growth has been terrible in the last couple of years, I suppose that most of the people who wanted to be tested, have banally already done so. Overall I'm agnostic on its prospects.

    But yes, Yandex is mostly a long-term hold for me as well.

    Replies: @Boswald Bollocksworth, @Pericles

    , @silviosilver
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Dude, I hope for your sake you're just some kind of shill. If you're sincere, lol, good luck, you'll be needing plenty.

    (I'll say this though, the ability to sit tight when you're on a winner is indeed golden; but if you're on a loser, uh-uh. So not only do you need some reliable way to distinguish between the two - ie how much room or time do you give the latter to turn into the former - but also some reliable way of ensuring you'll have enough of the former to make up for the absolute, total inevitability of the latter. AK's "advice," apparently based on no more than the most simplistic application of technical analysis "principles"- unless that Roko dude actually has some other sound reason for his assertion, which I kinda doubt - is not going to help you in either of those two tasks, not even close.)

    Replies: @Dmitry

  60. No surprise:

    He relies on Yuri Shvets and Olga Lautman.

  61. kzn says:

    Looking at the western media, there is almost zero about Putin’s article on Ukraine – just proves what a sinister and corrupt operation their Russian section is.

    Ukrop media have a policy of not directly discussing the content of it ( except the “peremoga” because he as “forced” to do it in Ukrainian and this “v” or “na” Ukrop BS) – probably out of fear normal Ukrainians may “fall in love with it” LOL.

    There also doesn’t appear to have been a single attempt in Western media to establish facts over the Ryanair flight that had to land in Belarus after a fake bomb threat. Its essential to know if he was forced into landing the plane by order….. or if he and Belarus were following standards procedure , what (if any) conversations he had with Lithuanian ATC ( like if they refused the plane to enter their airspace because they were also treating the threat as credible – I think the first e-mail of the threat was sent to a Lithuanian airport), conversations with Belarus ATC and their Air Force….. and just general post flight comment from this pilot, who looks to have vanished. The entire incident looks as blatant a Western provocation as ever

  62. This is pretty funny.

  63. @Svevlad
    @SafeNow

    I like this sort of examination. The best way to judge someone's integrity and character for such kinds of work is to ask those kinds of "difficult" questions.

    I'd argue that saving the girlfriend is the correct option. The parents, well, by creating me, have done their jobs, and became obsolete. The girlfriend has more potential.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver

    Not to say that one or another option is more correct, but the point here seems to be it was legal exam, so probably CCP Chinese laws have explicit or implicit priorities in such situations towards formal family members instead of non formalized relationships.

    Whether is it right or wrong should be an object of philosophy/ethics exam perhaps. Wonder what the correct lawful answer in current China would be if the choice should have been done between parents and official wife, not just girlfriend.

  64. @Shortsword
    https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1416130351068504066

    Global fertility rate will likely drop below replacement in a few years.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Felix Keverich

    It would be not first time though as white Neanderthals or probably not so black homo erectuses outside Africa also were swept away by negro homo sapiens waves coming out from Africa, but in some quick 40k years from now they all current total blacks should whiten up somewhat again ;)

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    , @silviosilver
    @Felix Keverich


    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.
     
    You can't simply rely on fertility rate decreases to keep them out. "Avoid the groid" must evolve from a sage local watchword to a global moral imperative - the stuff of formal compacts - else, in the fullness of time, we'll all eventually succumb to negrofuxation. If that happens, any alien civilization that seeks us out for having decoded the gold disc on Voyager would surely shudder at what became of the late, great planet Earth.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @songbird

    , @kzn
    @Felix Keverich

    Well the first thing will be Africans over breeding in rural areas swamping the big cities....in their own African countries.

    The waves of African migrants to white countries are mainly the relatively urbanised Africans often disadvantaged by the waves of internal rural Africans from much bigger families coming to live in their African cities.


    Although relatively poorer and less educated compared to us, these urban 'cosmopolitan " Africans are still much more educated and richer, and most importantly - lower TFR, than these rural migrants.

    Once they come to Europe I would say its less about their urge to breed,but more about their incentive to breed because of extremely generous EU state handouts given to migrants or refugees with young families - more so if their kids are actually born in an EU state.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  65. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.
     
    Genshin/Honkai Impact and Girl's Frontline, both Chinese games, have gigantic fanbases - iirc, Girl's Frontline recently beat out Touhou as the largest and most active fanbase. A lot of the fanbase is obviously American, as you can see yourself:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/

    The censorship is not always that strict, let's put it that way.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    Go watch Kemono Friends. It isn’t about a bunch of Animal Girls, but a tale of post-catastrophic natural lives, human self-discovery and garden-variety Platonism (in the lore)

  66. @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.
     
    Interestingly, but I once thought up a scenario of some sort of hyper-oppressive government or AI that's also at the same time benevolent. So how could this be?

    The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity, freedom and security, they need to be liberated from everything, including government. So basically anarchy. Except, anarchy doesn't provide for security, and doesn't last long. People have needs they can't fulfill themselves.

    Therefore, they need to actually be made as self-sufficient as possible. By any means necessary, and as quickly as possible. You don't need to govern gods.

    Therefore, to accomplish this, an incredibly oppressive system that's practically the exact opposite of what you prefer is instituted, where everyone's lives revolve constantly and exclusively on improving themselves by any means necessary. This could last centuries.

    The catch is, is it worth, to doom billions, trillions even, to a lifetime of suffering, so that their descendants become basically godlike and have no needs at all which they can't provide for themselves (sustenance/shelter/water etc) apart from socialization, allowing them to truly fully express their potential and creativity?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh, @Yellowface Anon

    Your mindset is basically no different from the WEF, and maybe even more extreme than theirs (at least they are supposed to deal with social problems in a self-serving way while you are all about ruining people in the medium-term)

    There is no social model that is preferrable or conductive to human flourishing, but what will exist as human adaptation to changing circumstances. Don’t mandate a model, observe and act, and maybe predict. This is why fundamentally, both the Great Reset and Great Awakening are wrong.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    I didn't say I support it - it's just a moral question - in practice it would be... impractical.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  67. @Felix Keverich
    @Shortsword

    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver, @kzn

    It would be not first time though as white Neanderthals or probably not so black homo erectuses outside Africa also were swept away by negro homo sapiens waves coming out from Africa, but in some quick 40k years from now they all current total blacks should whiten up somewhat again 😉

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    @sudden death

    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features. Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad

  68. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Let's try to use actual numbers.

    In 2050, China's population might be 1.38 billion (down from 1.41 billion today). I'm adjusting a UN population estimate based on the results released from the 2020 Census to get this figure. In 2050, the US population will be 390 million based on the projection of the US Census. China's population will still be about 3.5 times larger in 2050. So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger. I agree with you that 300% is far-fetched but 150% seems low to me.

    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian). Can you imagine the GDP per capita of the US is $65,000 this year if the country had the projected demographics of 2050? It would be lower than $65,000 and China would catch up faster.

    Are there any assumptions you don't agree with in the calculation? What's the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by, @Boomthorkell

    My biggest disagreement is with projecting the population size or economic size of basically everywhere based on deliberately ignoring what the WEF can do. The population of the West (US + Anglosphere + EU) can drop by maybe 1/5, and GDP per capita 1/4-2/3 (judging from the last time this happened, the collapse of actually-existing socialism in the 90s). I’m not saying Russia or China will be immune to this, but they’ll be a bit less affected.

    If you take a stabilizing Chinese economy and a fracturing and failing American economy, we could actually have GDP per capita parity (of the American collapse kind). If China still had 1.2B people (100M lower than the low-end UN projections) then and the US 220M (losing 1/3), that would easily be ~5.5x. It’s only a back-of-the-envelope estimation and we don’t know what the world will be even next year.

    (That 220M figure is assuming a sociocide on the scale of Khmer Rouge and 20 more years of stable population loss post-Soviet style. It’s not as radical as Deagel’s 100M in 2030)

  69. @AaronB
    Just as 2% Jews dominate the world, so too 3% of Jewish ancestry dominates Karlin's personality.

    There is no escape, Karlin.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    There was some WN writer (I think it was Andrew Hamilton, but I can’t find it) who quoted some Jewish philosopher or rabbi or whatever from a century or two ago who apparently believed something close to what you’ve said here, that even a smidgeon of “Jewish blood” has outsized effects which incline the person to favor Jews. (I may be misremembering that last bit, but not the part about outsized effects.) The WN writer’s point was that Jews would know best about such things, so whites should take the argument seriously.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @silviosilver


    even a smidgeon of “Jewish blood” has outsized effects
     
    I think I posted this joke before, but you reminded me of it.
    A sheikh in a Mid-Eastern sheikdom needed blood transfusion. His blood type was so rare, that the only person with compatible blood was a Jew. The Jew agreed to donate blood, and grateful sheikh gave him an expansive car and a huge house. When the sheikh needed another blood transfusion, the Jew readily agreed. Grateful sheikh gave him a box of chocolates. The Jew asked: last time you gave me a car and a house, but now only a box of chocolates. Why? The sheikh answered: last time I did not have any Jewish blood in me.
  70. @songbird
    Here's another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

    And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

    Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Svevlad, @Daniel Chieh, @silviosilver, @Joe Paluka, @Alfa158

    Here’s another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots?

    The plot is that it turns out it is possible, and a number of scientists get to work on it in utmost secrecy, but someone lets the cat out of the bag and the public finds the idea so abhorrent – Abo supersoldiers? – that it finally precipitates the long-awaited normie revolt.

  71. @Svevlad
    @SafeNow

    I like this sort of examination. The best way to judge someone's integrity and character for such kinds of work is to ask those kinds of "difficult" questions.

    I'd argue that saving the girlfriend is the correct option. The parents, well, by creating me, have done their jobs, and became obsolete. The girlfriend has more potential.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver

    I think the “correct” answer should be the person you love more. Some people justifiably hate their mothers, so it would be perfectly understandable if they let them perish. Or others may love their mothers, but have a very serious girlfriend they intend to marry, and it would be understandable if they picked her over the mother. Personally, there’s no girl I’m even close to that serious about, so there’s no chance I’d pick some silly slut over my own mother, even in the case that my mother was sick and only had a short time to live.

  72. @sudden death
    @Felix Keverich

    It would be not first time though as white Neanderthals or probably not so black homo erectuses outside Africa also were swept away by negro homo sapiens waves coming out from Africa, but in some quick 40k years from now they all current total blacks should whiten up somewhat again ;)

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features. Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Felix Keverich


    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features.
     
    They've done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!

    Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.
     
    Which "Negro"? Bantu? West African? Hamitics? Descendents of slaves? Mulattos? White trash can destroy civilization too. Right now anti-complexity tendency predominate in Blacks, but it isn't a given.

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @Svevlad
    @Felix Keverich

    Not in Africa.

    See, the problem everyone and their dog among the HBD rightoids ignore is the fact that for practically anyone, even stepping on African soil prior to the late 19th century was basically an instant death from a thousand diseases. The natives weren't really much better off either.

    Evolution of high intelligence and civilization-supporting "hardware" requires resource competition. Africa has a lot of resources, even if classic field agriculture isn't suited to savannas (see: Cerrado being cultivated only after the 70s). But I digress - Africa has a lot of resources, which means to get competition for those, you need a high population...

    Enter the 20 bazillion diseases they have. The entire continent becomes a shredder and puts a stop to any evolution that isn't disease resistance related.

    There, mystery solved. No "they didn't have to work to survive" cope, no seethe, no retardation.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

  73. @Felix Keverich
    @sudden death

    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features. Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad

    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features.

    They’ve done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!

    Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

    Which “Negro”? Bantu? West African? Hamitics? Descendents of slaves? Mulattos? White trash can destroy civilization too. Right now anti-complexity tendency predominate in Blacks, but it isn’t a given.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Yellowface Anon


    They’ve done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!
     
    Harsh climates might be different - hot/cold, wet/dry etc. Subsistence living in harsh ice age northern latitudes seem to favour skin melanin reduction for better survival while it is inverse situation ir harsh hot southern areas.
  74. @Abelard Lindsey
    In the 90's I decided the ideal human society is 80% East Asian pragmatism and 20% Western Heinleinian libertarianism, assuming currently existing humans. I have not experienced for a nanosecond anything that could ever change my mind on this.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @sher singh

    AK: Such comments aren’t productive. Don’t do this again.

    [MORE]

    In the 90’s I decided the ideal human society is 80% East Asian pragmatism and 20% Western Heinleinian libertarianism, assuming currently existing humans. I have not experienced for a nanosecond anything that could ever change my mind on this.

    I think a hollow-point administered through the roof of your mouth would change your mind.

    • LOL: sher singh
  75. sher singh says:
    @Abelard Lindsey
    In the 90's I decided the ideal human society is 80% East Asian pragmatism and 20% Western Heinleinian libertarianism, assuming currently existing humans. I have not experienced for a nanosecond anything that could ever change my mind on this.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @sher singh

    96% Khalsa, 4% rest.

    Effort post on Internal Demographics/immigration, Global Liberalism & Bantu-dom below

    [MORE]

    South Africa 20% white in 1904, 10%ish today, finally war.
    Liberal elites secure, they’re centuries from that & big gulf in Jiziya and genocide
    Without outside backing minorities intermarry & become defanged
    With Liberalism there’s a standard template & 1-2 allowable exceptions per state:
    Proles (via elites) consolidate around standard and signal against 1-2 issues.

    USA: brown people (muslims)
    Russia: gays
    China: blacks
    India: atheism
    EU: hijabs

    Liberalism wanes but more buy in (KSA) and more exceptions per state can be allowed.
    Liberalism rules through this global standard + local exception model.
    Liberalism built on indus bureaucracy & mass media we need high tfr, culture & prod
    None of that in any single or group of states so Liberalism will be default for C+
    https://web.archive.org/web/20180202082106/https://reactionaryfuture.wordpress.com/2016/10/19/the-common-root-of-all-modern-political-discourse/

    Liberalism is defined as honor killing being ‘illegal’. Bantus TFR 4 vs 2 Ms, 1.5 Eurasia
    Generation away from manpower to invade world but build up takes awhile.
    For example Europe is Century+ from 25% Islam
    I don’t know if genocides are on the table, but you can just sit on the floor. :shrug:

    All along the platform, she later wrote, blue-turbaned Sikhs sat cross-legged, their curved kirpans across their knees, patiently waiting for the next arriving Special.

    Sikhs and other seem to advance to liberal lines but no logistics to cross
    For example, they snatch Muslim girls & surround Delhi but can’t burn Mecca/Modi, yet.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottishSikh/status/1380469448855916545

    Guru Nanak Dev walked into Mecca as a non-Muslim and openly asserted Dharma.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  76. @Felix Keverich
    @Shortsword

    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver, @kzn

    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

    You can’t simply rely on fertility rate decreases to keep them out. “Avoid the groid” must evolve from a sage local watchword to a global moral imperative – the stuff of formal compacts – else, in the fullness of time, we’ll all eventually succumb to negrofuxation. If that happens, any alien civilization that seeks us out for having decoded the gold disc on Voyager would surely shudder at what became of the late, great planet Earth.

    • Agree: Jatt Aryaa
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @silviosilver

    "Scientific racism" is an accurate label of what your types are advocating, and that's a compliment.

    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

    Replies: @Jatt Aryaa, @silviosilver

    , @songbird
    @silviosilver

    If aliens somehow managed to find the gold record on Voyager, then they would probably have enough evidence to theorize that we were destroyed by poz.

  77. @Yellowface Anon
    @Felix Keverich


    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features.
     
    They've done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!

    Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.
     
    Which "Negro"? Bantu? West African? Hamitics? Descendents of slaves? Mulattos? White trash can destroy civilization too. Right now anti-complexity tendency predominate in Blacks, but it isn't a given.

    Replies: @sudden death

    They’ve done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!

    Harsh climates might be different – hot/cold, wet/dry etc. Subsistence living in harsh ice age northern latitudes seem to favour skin melanin reduction for better survival while it is inverse situation ir harsh hot southern areas.

  78. @Boswald Bollocksworth
    thanks for posting the newly listed equities. You have strong enough predictive ability that I'll just throw some cash at these for a few years and then hold them. (I want to encourage guys here to not sell assets unless selling gets them F.U. money, hold, never sell). Really like the idea of buying Yandex, which you brought up, will be plowing cash into that just as soon as I'm done with my current crypto buying goal.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @silviosilver

    They’re not really buy recommendations – just things that I consider to be of note and worth looking into, but not necessarily something to buy. I’m not planning to acquire any of them right now FWIW, stocks in general seem overheated.

    Transferwise (Wise) is 3x lower than Revolut on both p/e and mc, though Revolut has twice as many clients. OTOH, Revolut is aiming to be a full-fledged financial services provider, providing insurance, loans, stocks, even cryptos, etc., while Wise seems more exclusively focused on its original core competence of international transfers and remittances. Fintech in general is exploding (Revolut was $5B last year, now it’s $33B; Tinkoff quadrupled), but how long will this last? I’m wary of investing much into such an overheated space and in fact recently sold off the last of my Tinkoff stocks.

    EMH: $1B for 12 clinics, even quite high quality one, seems a bit on the high side. OTOH, some private hospital chains in China are worth $30-50B. But I don’t know enough about this sector to be comfortable about investing.

    23andme might be the most speculative. Could 100x eventually, if Genetics Revolution pans out and it becomes something like the premier social graph for genomics. Or it could crab indefinitely. Customer growth has been terrible in the last couple of years, I suppose that most of the people who wanted to be tested, have banally already done so. Overall I’m agnostic on its prospects.

    But yes, Yandex is mostly a long-term hold for me as well.

    • Replies: @Boswald Bollocksworth
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Thanks and noted that this is not a "call" but just an observation about new companies. I will still buy a little of the US-traded ones just to take some risk, and so I have it in the portfolio to remember to look into them later.

    Russian investments in particularly are really interesting, as Russian rule of law gradually heals from the pre-Putin age, and Russia builds out her own domestic service economy.

    , @Pericles
    @Anatoly Karlin

    23andme in its current form doesn't seem very useful or serious, e.g., the way SJW employees apparently had some fun by marking certain results as '<1% subsaharan african' just to troll the racists. However, being underwritten by a Google founder, I think the company is a way for jews to have their own private genomics firm without any need for their precious genes to leak to the goyim. Given the money behind it, 23andme can probably exist indefinitely.

    In general, as a customer you get your little report in exchange for your genetic information put in a freezer, digitized and logged. Who knows what happens with it afterwards. Overall, I don't find the trade off very enticing.

    On a more general note, I do however think genetic information will become increasingly used for various intrusive and routine official purposes. Excepting the good and great, naturally -- we're not animals.

    (Sweden btw already has a sort of genetic register of everyone born in Sweden after 1975. This was motivated by detecting genetic disease -- such a worthy purpose -- but was in 2003 used to identify the murderer of politician Anna Lindh, I believe by matching blood spatter. He turned out to be the stabby son of an immigrant Serbian couple.)

  79. @silviosilver
    @Felix Keverich


    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.
     
    You can't simply rely on fertility rate decreases to keep them out. "Avoid the groid" must evolve from a sage local watchword to a global moral imperative - the stuff of formal compacts - else, in the fullness of time, we'll all eventually succumb to negrofuxation. If that happens, any alien civilization that seeks us out for having decoded the gold disc on Voyager would surely shudder at what became of the late, great planet Earth.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @songbird

    “Scientific racism” is an accurate label of what your types are advocating, and that’s a compliment.

    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

    • LOL: Jatt Aryaa
    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
    @Yellowface Anon

    Racism is between humans not species.

    , @silviosilver
    @Yellowface Anon


    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.
     
    Firstly, what "your type"? If you're Asian, you're in the same boat as me, according to the reasoning I employed.

    Secondly, why must you assume the worst? Keeping a group out of your living space doesn't require "exterminating" them, sheesh.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  80. @Boswald Bollocksworth
    thanks for posting the newly listed equities. You have strong enough predictive ability that I'll just throw some cash at these for a few years and then hold them. (I want to encourage guys here to not sell assets unless selling gets them F.U. money, hold, never sell). Really like the idea of buying Yandex, which you brought up, will be plowing cash into that just as soon as I'm done with my current crypto buying goal.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @silviosilver

    Dude, I hope for your sake you’re just some kind of shill. If you’re sincere, lol, good luck, you’ll be needing plenty.

    (I’ll say this though, the ability to sit tight when you’re on a winner is indeed golden; but if you’re on a loser, uh-uh. So not only do you need some reliable way to distinguish between the two – ie how much room or time do you give the latter to turn into the former – but also some reliable way of ensuring you’ll have enough of the former to make up for the absolute, total inevitability of the latter. AK’s “advice,” apparently based on no more than the most simplistic application of technical analysis “principles”- unless that Roko dude actually has some other sound reason for his assertion, which I kinda doubt – is not going to help you in either of those two tasks, not even close.)

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @silviosilver

    It's not difficult to add the (small portion of) money you wanted to invest in stocks, to an index tracking fund, and forget about it for 10 years. Only idiots, masochists, or people who enjoy statistical noise, will follow the daily movements of such kind of investments.

    10 years sounds like a long time, but life is either very short, or time is going very fast, because the 10 years will have transpassed in an instant. Very soon it will be 2031, and you will be saying to yourself "it feels like only a few hours ago that it was 2021".

    Of course, in that time, your youth will have run from you, and you will begin to find grey hairs - but in most of the possible futures likely you will have earned a little "free money" when you look at the envelope, and that will provide your older version of yourself with some sense of financial wisdom. (Although the freedom of the money will be somewhat of an illusion, due to the fact you did expose it to risk that resulted in losing money in some minority of other alternative futures that you will likely avoid having to live).

    For most of your income though, better to spend it now and buy some cool stuff while you are still alive and healthy, and childish enough to enjoy such things.

  81. @Yellowface Anon
    @silviosilver

    "Scientific racism" is an accurate label of what your types are advocating, and that's a compliment.

    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

    Replies: @Jatt Aryaa, @silviosilver

    Racism is between humans not species.

    • Troll: Yellowface Anon
  82. @Yellowface Anon
    @silviosilver

    "Scientific racism" is an accurate label of what your types are advocating, and that's a compliment.

    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

    Replies: @Jatt Aryaa, @silviosilver

    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

    Firstly, what “your type”? If you’re Asian, you’re in the same boat as me, according to the reasoning I employed.

    Secondly, why must you assume the worst? Keeping a group out of your living space doesn’t require “exterminating” them, sheesh.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @silviosilver

    This is why I didn't say flat out your approach is wrong. It is not-as-moral, but practical from the perspective from a racial purist point of view, that is often unpragmatic (e.g. China courting African states for their resources)

  83. @Felix Keverich
    @sudden death

    It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features. Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad

    Not in Africa.

    See, the problem everyone and their dog among the HBD rightoids ignore is the fact that for practically anyone, even stepping on African soil prior to the late 19th century was basically an instant death from a thousand diseases. The natives weren’t really much better off either.

    Evolution of high intelligence and civilization-supporting “hardware” requires resource competition. Africa has a lot of resources, even if classic field agriculture isn’t suited to savannas (see: Cerrado being cultivated only after the 70s). But I digress – Africa has a lot of resources, which means to get competition for those, you need a high population…

    Enter the 20 bazillion diseases they have. The entire continent becomes a shredder and puts a stop to any evolution that isn’t disease resistance related.

    There, mystery solved. No “they didn’t have to work to survive” cope, no seethe, no retardation.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Svevlad

    Let us not forget the elephants! A war the interior Africans didn't start winning until the introduction of guns wholesale to the Savannah. I'm not even kidding. Those guys will wreck a village of any moderate size. I like elephants, but a war is a war. Bees and thorn bushes help, though.

    In time, with the advantages of many modern breakthroughs (medicinal and otherwise) and ongoing Chinese infrastructure development and investment (different than Western financial investment), as well as political stabilization (much of Africa is, in fact, not a horrible, rape-filled warzone), they'll figure themselves out and create the moderately prosperous societies. It won't be Germany, China, Japan, Russia, Korea or Britain, but it will be a fairly okay place to be, and especially so if one is African (biologically and culturally).

    It takes time, though, and a outsiders not to interfere besides simple trade and infrastructure deals. Gadaffi was always working towards that goal. A damn shame it was, too. Europe and the world could have had a moderately stable and moderately prosperous Dark Continent, and instead they opted for "The Gayest and Darkest" Timeline.

  84. @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Your mindset is basically no different from the WEF, and maybe even more extreme than theirs (at least they are supposed to deal with social problems in a self-serving way while you are all about ruining people in the medium-term)

    There is no social model that is preferrable or conductive to human flourishing, but what will exist as human adaptation to changing circumstances. Don't mandate a model, observe and act, and maybe predict. This is why fundamentally, both the Great Reset and Great Awakening are wrong.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    I didn’t say I support it – it’s just a moral question – in practice it would be… impractical.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Instead of an "agree" I mean "thanks". But what's the social mode you actually prefer, I've been taking the social Darwinist models you've described as your own stance.

    Replies: @Svevlad

  85. @silviosilver
    @Yellowface Anon


    I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.
     
    Firstly, what "your type"? If you're Asian, you're in the same boat as me, according to the reasoning I employed.

    Secondly, why must you assume the worst? Keeping a group out of your living space doesn't require "exterminating" them, sheesh.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    This is why I didn’t say flat out your approach is wrong. It is not-as-moral, but practical from the perspective from a racial purist point of view, that is often unpragmatic (e.g. China courting African states for their resources)

  86. @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    I didn't say I support it - it's just a moral question - in practice it would be... impractical.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Instead of an “agree” I mean “thanks”. But what’s the social mode you actually prefer, I’ve been taking the social Darwinist models you’ve described as your own stance.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    My views themselves are sort of Darwinistic, but in a very idiosyncratic way. Really, nothing but "everyone gets what they deserve" even if that's not what they want, or need, or think. You will fulfill your potential whether you want it or not. I've devised a very complicated governance system that I could describe as "corporatist technocratic Iran." Note that the corporatist part means running a state like a body or organism, not governance by corporations.

  87. @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Instead of an "agree" I mean "thanks". But what's the social mode you actually prefer, I've been taking the social Darwinist models you've described as your own stance.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    My views themselves are sort of Darwinistic, but in a very idiosyncratic way. Really, nothing but “everyone gets what they deserve” even if that’s not what they want, or need, or think. You will fulfill your potential whether you want it or not. I’ve devised a very complicated governance system that I could describe as “corporatist technocratic Iran.” Note that the corporatist part means running a state like a body or organism, not governance by corporations.

    • Agree: Boomthorkell
    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
  88. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My perspective is not one of building great, world-beating countries. I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

    Nonetheless, the US is well-placed to 'perform" well. I believe there is a general trend towards higher fertility for educated women, probably because of better technology. I also see that the US will continue to attract the cognitive elite to move there from everywhere, including China, for the indefinite future.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Svevlad, @Passer by

    Both the fertility of the educated and the uneducated is falling in the US, only the fertility of the educated is dropping at lower pace compared to the uneducated. Its all time low for both groups.

  89. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.
     
    Genshin/Honkai Impact and Girl's Frontline, both Chinese games, have gigantic fanbases - iirc, Girl's Frontline recently beat out Touhou as the largest and most active fanbase. A lot of the fanbase is obviously American, as you can see yourself:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/

    The censorship is not always that strict, let's put it that way.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite. Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

    I see US progressives, for the last few decades, not as making the future, but as seeing where it is going and placing themselves where best to take advantage. They occasionally slip up, like they did with assuming that men’s and women’s athletics records would fully converge, but they swiftly reposition and later reap the rewards.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

     

    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1rjfW-5HAE

    Amusingly, it has blood, zombies dolls, and what is basically a cult. All things you said were banned in China.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite.

     

    America is "inclusive" in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr8ljRgcJNM

    Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

     

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations, but its the second largest producer of culture worldwide in influence(I remember actual metrics for this, but I can't find it now). There are dozens and dozens of more "inclusive" civilizations, like all over Latin America, with no real cultural exports, certainly not on that level of profitability.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

  90. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Let's try to use actual numbers.

    In 2050, China's population might be 1.38 billion (down from 1.41 billion today). I'm adjusting a UN population estimate based on the results released from the 2020 Census to get this figure. In 2050, the US population will be 390 million based on the projection of the US Census. China's population will still be about 3.5 times larger in 2050. So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger. I agree with you that 300% is far-fetched but 150% seems low to me.

    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian). Can you imagine the GDP per capita of the US is $65,000 this year if the country had the projected demographics of 2050? It would be lower than $65,000 and China would catch up faster.

    Are there any assumptions you don't agree with in the calculation? What's the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by, @Boomthorkell

    So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.

    Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 – 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping’s target for 2020 – 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

    The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 – 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

    For 2030 – 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 – 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

    For 2040 – 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

    At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.

    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).

    If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

    What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

    I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

    Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

    In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching “only” 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

    • Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It's hard to follow your numbers. Can you provide your estimates in the format below to make them easier to calculate?


    US annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

    China annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

    What is the exchange rate between the yuan and USD in 2050? Moderately higher or lower than it is now (6.5 to 1), or a lot higher or lower?
     
    For inflation, we can simply assume 3% in both countries (inflation doubles every 25 years) as this variable is probably the most difficult to predict.

    US racial demographics

    Do you count all people who identify as white Hispanic on Census 2020 as functionally equivalent to non-Hispanic whites in contributing to a first-world economy? "According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 65.5% of Latinos identified as white." Considering the high number of Latinos in the US who identify as white and the big gap in incomes and education for Latinos in the US relative to non-Hispanic whites, I would guess really just a small fraction of Latinos are white enough to be functionally equivalent.

    By citing PISA and the number of white Hispanics, what is your ballpark conclusion about the hypothetical effect of 2050 racial demographics on GDP per capita in 2021? Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita? Like reduction under 5%? If so that would not be my estimate.

    US overtaking China again

    If the extreme scenario comes true of China's population falling to 700 million in 2100 then I think the US will overtake China in GDP in 2100. But I don't think such a dire population scenario will happen.

    Replies: @Passer by

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Passer by

    I've revised my Deagel-style forecasts to something like this, in 2050:
    Population GDP pc Total
    US 223M 26k 5798B
    China 1246M 29k 36134B
    It is still built on the same fundamental assumptions as Deagel's (Great Reset depopulation and a Russian-style economic meltdown). China only needs to grow ~1.4% annually instead of the conventional 3.3-3.8%, due to a stronger demographic collapse and a break-down in international trade. Here it is 6.23x, and China here is also able to surpass the economic blackhole once known as "America" on a per-capita level. If China is fucked up, America will be way worse.

    I have produced some "moderate-Deagel" scenarios for the 14 top economies (in GDP PPP). No one will be more populous in 2050 than now, and most of the developed countries are heading for a sharp drop in GDP per capita (Germany might be at 21k vs 56k). My bias says only China and Russia, because of not shooting their feet as proactively, can raise their GDP per capita substantially over a falling population; Brazil and Indonesia will improve slightly too, but far below what conventional economists suggests.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Svevlad

    , @Shortsword
    @Passer by

    You seem to assume exchange rates to stay constant or believe growth is computed at exchange rates.

    , @Pericles
    @Passer by


    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average.

     

    We nice people in Sweeeden boosted our PISA results last time around by quietly excluding low-quality migrants, by the way.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

  91. @Abelard Lindsey
    @Daniel Chieh

    This is about natural limitations. For example, a start up entrepreneur being limited by how much money he can get from investors and on what terms. This is not about the current BS of political factions attempting to impose artificial limitations in the form of taxation, socialist economic policies, "woke" sjw bullshit, and the like. The first set are a part of reality. The second set has no validity whatsoever.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    I’m not saying that the current throttle is good, but the article clearly indicates cultural(or even voluntary) restrictions inspiring more creativity.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    It tends to inspire creative ways around the restrictions. Just like smashing someone's windows "inspires" them to get them fixed.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Abelard Lindsey
    @Daniel Chieh

    I agree with the article with regards to art. However, its bullshit with regards to technological innovation and business entrepreneurship.

  92. @Daniel Chieh
    @Abelard Lindsey

    I'm not saying that the current throttle is good, but the article clearly indicates cultural(or even voluntary) restrictions inspiring more creativity.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Abelard Lindsey

    It tends to inspire creative ways around the restrictions. Just like smashing someone’s windows “inspires” them to get them fixed.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You also did not read the article.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  93. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They're always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite. Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

    I see US progressives, for the last few decades, not as making the future, but as seeing where it is going and placing themselves where best to take advantage. They occasionally slip up, like they did with assuming that men's and women's athletics records would fully converge, but they swiftly reposition and later reap the rewards.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

    Amusingly, it has blood, zombies dolls, and what is basically a cult. All things you said were banned in China.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite.

    America is “inclusive” in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

    Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations, but its the second largest producer of culture worldwide in influence(I remember actual metrics for this, but I can’t find it now). There are dozens and dozens of more “inclusive” civilizations, like all over Latin America, with no real cultural exports, certainly not on that level of profitability.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    One thing I forgot to say is how all successful Chinese games (Azur Lane, Girls' Frontline, Arknights, Genshin Impact...) outside China, are all in anime artstyle, not the gritty semi-realistic one that has been in tragedy of the commons mode domestically. This means those games have a good chance of passing off as Japanese (and indeed they hire Japanese to run JP servers). Azur Lane even copied the whole premise of Kantai Collection, which was a Japanese runaway success in 2013 (up to 2015)

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Daniel Chieh

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/15/china-video-game-censorship-tencent-netease-blizzard


    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.
     
    Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

    It normally does the opposite.

    America is “inclusive” in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.
     
    The difference between our two perspectives on where creativity comes from is too great for us to agree; but I wonder if you can at least see my position?

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations
     
    Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what "inclusivity" is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

    Latin American cultural products tend to be atrocious at this, but Japanese ones tend to be excellent and speak to people on many levels. You can also see this in the way that Japan tolerates extreme weirdness, but Latin American countries, not so much.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  94. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    It tends to inspire creative ways around the restrictions. Just like smashing someone's windows "inspires" them to get them fixed.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    You also did not read the article.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    The article is about taking yourself out of yourself in order to get closer to the wellspring of creativity. You're approaching it in too linear a manner to see what it is really about.

  95. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You also did not read the article.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    The article is about taking yourself out of yourself in order to get closer to the wellspring of creativity. You’re approaching it in too linear a manner to see what it is really about.

  96. Regarding ivermectin, you can believe WHO, the corrupt creature controlled by Big Pharma and run by Third-World functionaries. Or believe a professional who does meta-analyses for a living. The interview of Dr. Tess Lawrie by Dr. John Campbell lays out the choice.

  97. @AnonFromTN
    Just a note:
    Luke Harding was caught red handed with plagiarism. You can find details in many places, including:
    https://exiledonline.com/luke-harding-porn-read-the-guardians-apology-to-the-exile-over-luke-harding-plagiarism/
    https://thealtworld.com/caitlin_johnston/luke-hardings-continued-employment-discredits-all-western-media

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Jazman

    I am following closely what is going on with vaccination and everything you said about Pfizer is true and you said it long time ago , every day there is more and more problems . I avoided at work to receive Pfizer thanks God nobody forcing me yet , but also now people on the street stopping people and asking are you vaccinated . My brother is neurologist but pushing for Pfizer he is paid by them to promote vaccination , when I present him credible sources he accused me of propaganda .

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @Jazman

    The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.

    Basically, my point is, if Pfizer and Moderna “vaccines” have the composition the companies claim, they can’t be effective. If they are effective, they can’t have “disclosed” composition. So, either composition or effectiveness is a lie. In my experience, people lie when the truth is incompatible with their interests.

    Replies: @sudden death

  98. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

     

    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1rjfW-5HAE

    Amusingly, it has blood, zombies dolls, and what is basically a cult. All things you said were banned in China.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite.

     

    America is "inclusive" in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr8ljRgcJNM

    Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

     

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations, but its the second largest producer of culture worldwide in influence(I remember actual metrics for this, but I can't find it now). There are dozens and dozens of more "inclusive" civilizations, like all over Latin America, with no real cultural exports, certainly not on that level of profitability.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    One thing I forgot to say is how all successful Chinese games (Azur Lane, Girls’ Frontline, Arknights, Genshin Impact…) outside China, are all in anime artstyle, not the gritty semi-realistic one that has been in tragedy of the commons mode domestically. This means those games have a good chance of passing off as Japanese (and indeed they hire Japanese to run JP servers). Azur Lane even copied the whole premise of Kantai Collection, which was a Japanese runaway success in 2013 (up to 2015)

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    Yeah, China seems to have managed to adopted an unique storytelling style so far(the weird mixture of gnosticism, buddhism and quantum universes is pretty amusing), but not really an unique artstyle. But I think there's cause for hope.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    Its funny - I was thinking that I first came to really realize that Chinese games had broken out was because a Canadian girl was happily sharing "omg this is so cute" images of Arksknight - like you mentioned, due to the Japanese style, I had not realized that Girl's Frontline(which I still find weird) had become incredibly popular.

    I've been mildly amused by the fact that every single one of these games - Arksknight, Honkai, Frontline - all have multiple books worth of complexity in their storylines. There's definitely some tradition of wuxia complexity that's being inherited, probably unnecessarily, but its damn amusing and I actually think that seems to be a selling point. A lot of people do like lore and complexity.

    And this might be credited to miHoYo alone, but they actually seem to have pulled off the multi-chapter/seasonal game with beauty; I remember way back when the same was attempted in the US, first with small chapters and later with things like Half-Life...which still doesn't have a conclusion...but miHoYo does seem to have managed it with their content updates to "tell a narrative." Japanese versions like SinoALICE have not done so as well.

  99. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.
     
    Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 - 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping's target for 2020 - 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

    The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 - 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

    For 2030 - 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 - 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

    For 2040 - 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

    At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.


    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).
     
    If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

    https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/pisa-scores-migrants.jpg


    What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?
     
    I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

    Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

    In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching "only" 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Yellowface Anon, @Shortsword, @Pericles

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It’s hard to follow your numbers. Can you provide your estimates in the format below to make them easier to calculate?

    US annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

    China annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

    What is the exchange rate between the yuan and USD in 2050? Moderately higher or lower than it is now (6.5 to 1), or a lot higher or lower?

    For inflation, we can simply assume 3% in both countries (inflation doubles every 25 years) as this variable is probably the most difficult to predict.

    US racial demographics

    Do you count all people who identify as white Hispanic on Census 2020 as functionally equivalent to non-Hispanic whites in contributing to a first-world economy? “According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 65.5% of Latinos identified as white.” Considering the high number of Latinos in the US who identify as white and the big gap in incomes and education for Latinos in the US relative to non-Hispanic whites, I would guess really just a small fraction of Latinos are white enough to be functionally equivalent.

    By citing PISA and the number of white Hispanics, what is your ballpark conclusion about the hypothetical effect of 2050 racial demographics on GDP per capita in 2021? Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita? Like reduction under 5%? If so that would not be my estimate.

    US overtaking China again

    If the extreme scenario comes true of China’s population falling to 700 million in 2100 then I think the US will overtake China in GDP in 2100. But I don’t think such a dire population scenario will happen.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    Various companies and institutions all over the place use real growth rates after removing inflation.

    Get some future value calculator and you will see that you need 4,75 % average growth rates for the period of 2020 - 2050 for China to reach 1,75 times bigger MER GDP by 2050, which is something that everyone, including the chinese government, admits that it is impossible.

    Variables: China 70 % of US GDP 2020
    US 100 % 2020

    US Growth rate as per most financial institutions for the 2020 - 2050 period is 1,7 (1,9 - 1,6 - 1,5 as per CBO)
    China's growth rate for that period is 3,4 (5,1-2,9-2,2) (as per World Bank)

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

    Exchange rate - most estimate no more than 20 % currency appreciation of the CNY by that point. Some estimate no CNY appreciation at all. You are far from 1,75 times bigger China GDP at that point. The only way to get there is via massive 50 % CNY appreciation and i doubt that this will happen.


    US racial demographics
     
    If there was no positive white hispanic effect i doubt that the IQ of US migrants (second gen) will be just 4 points below that of the US population, as per PISA.

    Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita?
     
    Why not? The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues. If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa. The US gets some very innovative, high quality migrants, see Karlin's article on it. Yes, it gets lots of third worlders too, but these effects neutralise each other so the overall IQ drop due to immigration is not that large, as PISA shows.

    How much will per capita GDP drop? It will drop for certain, but looking at what i said above


    The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues
     
    it does not look that it will be a big drop. At least right now we are not seeing anything like this.

    Assuming average migrant IQ of 94 it will take a long time IMO before US IQ drops in any meaningful sense. It will be probably 96 by 2100, compared to 98 today. Maybe 10 % lower GDP per capita due to that.


    US overtaking China again
     
    Witn Chinese TFR dropping below the quite low of 1,3 of today, - with ongoing urbanisation in China, which will further reduce TFR, it is a possible scenario. But for that to happen, China will also have to reject immigration (which is possible) while the US will also have to prefer Asian immigration (things are going in that direction).

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Xi-Jinping

  100. kzn says:
    @Felix Keverich
    @Shortsword

    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

    Replies: @sudden death, @silviosilver, @kzn

    Well the first thing will be Africans over breeding in rural areas swamping the big cities….in their own African countries.

    The waves of African migrants to white countries are mainly the relatively urbanised Africans often disadvantaged by the waves of internal rural Africans from much bigger families coming to live in their African cities.

    Although relatively poorer and less educated compared to us, these urban ‘cosmopolitan ” Africans are still much more educated and richer, and most importantly – lower TFR, than these rural migrants.

    Once they come to Europe I would say its less about their urge to breed,but more about their incentive to breed because of extremely generous EU state handouts given to migrants or refugees with young families – more so if their kids are actually born in an EU state.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @kzn

    It makes good sense for a Chinese-allied dictator in Sub-Sahara Africa to actually learn the Dengist example and impose one-child policy. This time, since everyone is black and allowing minorities to breed will mess up the social balance, there should be zero exceptions.

    Sad thing Blacks are too self-centered when they are in high places...

    Replies: @Morton's toes

  101. @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.
     
    Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 - 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping's target for 2020 - 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

    The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 - 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

    For 2030 - 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 - 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

    For 2040 - 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

    At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.


    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).
     
    If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

    https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/pisa-scores-migrants.jpg


    What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?
     
    I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

    Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

    In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching "only" 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Yellowface Anon, @Shortsword, @Pericles

    I’ve revised my Deagel-style forecasts to something like this, in 2050:
    Population GDP pc Total
    US 223M 26k 5798B
    China 1246M 29k 36134B
    It is still built on the same fundamental assumptions as Deagel’s (Great Reset depopulation and a Russian-style economic meltdown). China only needs to grow ~1.4% annually instead of the conventional 3.3-3.8%, due to a stronger demographic collapse and a break-down in international trade. Here it is 6.23x, and China here is also able to surpass the economic blackhole once known as “America” on a per-capita level. If China is fucked up, America will be way worse.

    I have produced some “moderate-Deagel” scenarios for the 14 top economies (in GDP PPP). No one will be more populous in 2050 than now, and most of the developed countries are heading for a sharp drop in GDP per capita (Germany might be at 21k vs 56k). My bias says only China and Russia, because of not shooting their feet as proactively, can raise their GDP per capita substantially over a falling population; Brazil and Indonesia will improve slightly too, but far below what conventional economists suggests.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Yellowface Anon

    Personally i don't believe in great reset theories about wiping out 1/3 of the US population. Which can only happen via nuclear war, an ultra deadly disease, or banning child birth and immigration.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    Speaking of Deagel's forecast, it's no longer available on their site, at least I can't find it. Why would that be?

  102. @silviosilver
    @AaronB

    There was some WN writer (I think it was Andrew Hamilton, but I can't find it) who quoted some Jewish philosopher or rabbi or whatever from a century or two ago who apparently believed something close to what you've said here, that even a smidgeon of "Jewish blood" has outsized effects which incline the person to favor Jews. (I may be misremembering that last bit, but not the part about outsized effects.) The WN writer's point was that Jews would know best about such things, so whites should take the argument seriously.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    even a smidgeon of “Jewish blood” has outsized effects

    I think I posted this joke before, but you reminded me of it.
    A sheikh in a Mid-Eastern sheikdom needed blood transfusion. His blood type was so rare, that the only person with compatible blood was a Jew. The Jew agreed to donate blood, and grateful sheikh gave him an expansive car and a huge house. When the sheikh needed another blood transfusion, the Jew readily agreed. Grateful sheikh gave him a box of chocolates. The Jew asked: last time you gave me a car and a house, but now only a box of chocolates. Why? The sheikh answered: last time I did not have any Jewish blood in me.

  103. @kzn
    @Felix Keverich

    Well the first thing will be Africans over breeding in rural areas swamping the big cities....in their own African countries.

    The waves of African migrants to white countries are mainly the relatively urbanised Africans often disadvantaged by the waves of internal rural Africans from much bigger families coming to live in their African cities.


    Although relatively poorer and less educated compared to us, these urban 'cosmopolitan " Africans are still much more educated and richer, and most importantly - lower TFR, than these rural migrants.

    Once they come to Europe I would say its less about their urge to breed,but more about their incentive to breed because of extremely generous EU state handouts given to migrants or refugees with young families - more so if their kids are actually born in an EU state.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    It makes good sense for a Chinese-allied dictator in Sub-Sahara Africa to actually learn the Dengist example and impose one-child policy. This time, since everyone is black and allowing minorities to breed will mess up the social balance, there should be zero exceptions.

    Sad thing Blacks are too self-centered when they are in high places…

    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @Yellowface Anon

    Dictators in Africa have a eight wives and forty children. How are they going to tell people to stop having bunches of kids?

  104. @Yellowface Anon
    @Passer by

    I've revised my Deagel-style forecasts to something like this, in 2050:
    Population GDP pc Total
    US 223M 26k 5798B
    China 1246M 29k 36134B
    It is still built on the same fundamental assumptions as Deagel's (Great Reset depopulation and a Russian-style economic meltdown). China only needs to grow ~1.4% annually instead of the conventional 3.3-3.8%, due to a stronger demographic collapse and a break-down in international trade. Here it is 6.23x, and China here is also able to surpass the economic blackhole once known as "America" on a per-capita level. If China is fucked up, America will be way worse.

    I have produced some "moderate-Deagel" scenarios for the 14 top economies (in GDP PPP). No one will be more populous in 2050 than now, and most of the developed countries are heading for a sharp drop in GDP per capita (Germany might be at 21k vs 56k). My bias says only China and Russia, because of not shooting their feet as proactively, can raise their GDP per capita substantially over a falling population; Brazil and Indonesia will improve slightly too, but far below what conventional economists suggests.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Svevlad

    Personally i don’t believe in great reset theories about wiping out 1/3 of the US population. Which can only happen via nuclear war, an ultra deadly disease, or banning child birth and immigration.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Passer by

    First three you've mentioned, plus famine-tier supply chain collapses (in the "same" way Holodomor & Great Leap Forward happened) and possibly industrial genocide.

  105. @Not Raul
    @inertial


    So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that’s not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?
     
    The Freedom Phone guy didn’t develop a product. It’s a Chinese phone. It already existed.

    The piss poor security of the Twitter clones isn’t something that can be laughed off. Their promoters abused the trust of the MAGA cultists. They thought that the grifters had their back. Now their data is in the hands of people who want to ruin them.

    And another thing: Do you go out of your way to sound so patronizing, or does it come naturally?

    Replies: @inertial

    Funny how you think that I am the one who sounds patronizing and not the people who like to sneer at peasants.

    As for the phone, it’s actually not a bad idea. The product here, of course, is not the phone itself but the bundle of apps. It could be a great help for non-technical normies who want to escape the grip of the tech monopolies but wouldn’t know how to do it by themselves. Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure. But eventually someone will get it right.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    @inertial


    Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure.
     
    Freedom Phone definitely has problems.

    https://gab.com/InfiniteJest/posts/106596917574601626
  106. @Jazman
    @AnonFromTN

    I am following closely what is going on with vaccination and everything you said about Pfizer is true and you said it long time ago , every day there is more and more problems . I avoided at work to receive Pfizer thanks God nobody forcing me yet , but also now people on the street stopping people and asking are you vaccinated . My brother is neurologist but pushing for Pfizer he is paid by them to promote vaccination , when I present him credible sources he accused me of propaganda .

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.

    Basically, my point is, if Pfizer and Moderna “vaccines” have the composition the companies claim, they can’t be effective. If they are effective, they can’t have “disclosed” composition. So, either composition or effectiveness is a lie. In my experience, people lie when the truth is incompatible with their interests.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @AnonfromTN


    The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.
     
    ???...

    Quite cringey response above, as those UK'ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  107. @Yellowface Anon
    @Passer by

    I've revised my Deagel-style forecasts to something like this, in 2050:
    Population GDP pc Total
    US 223M 26k 5798B
    China 1246M 29k 36134B
    It is still built on the same fundamental assumptions as Deagel's (Great Reset depopulation and a Russian-style economic meltdown). China only needs to grow ~1.4% annually instead of the conventional 3.3-3.8%, due to a stronger demographic collapse and a break-down in international trade. Here it is 6.23x, and China here is also able to surpass the economic blackhole once known as "America" on a per-capita level. If China is fucked up, America will be way worse.

    I have produced some "moderate-Deagel" scenarios for the 14 top economies (in GDP PPP). No one will be more populous in 2050 than now, and most of the developed countries are heading for a sharp drop in GDP per capita (Germany might be at 21k vs 56k). My bias says only China and Russia, because of not shooting their feet as proactively, can raise their GDP per capita substantially over a falling population; Brazil and Indonesia will improve slightly too, but far below what conventional economists suggests.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Svevlad

    Speaking of Deagel’s forecast, it’s no longer available on their site, at least I can’t find it. Why would that be?

  108. @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.
     
    Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 - 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping's target for 2020 - 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

    The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 - 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

    For 2030 - 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 - 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

    For 2040 - 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

    At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.


    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).
     
    If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

    https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/pisa-scores-migrants.jpg


    What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?
     
    I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

    Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

    In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching "only" 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Yellowface Anon, @Shortsword, @Pericles

    You seem to assume exchange rates to stay constant or believe growth is computed at exchange rates.

  109. mal says:

    Food production in space experiments are going on nicely. NASA astronauts are going to grow peppers, tasty.

    https://news.yahoo.com/nasa-astronauts-aboard-iss-begun-100000458.html

    Also, it looks like Russian Nauka module will launch before James Webb Telescope lol, fingers crossed.

    Both were planned to launch in 2007 originally. So just a tad behind schedule.

  110. @kzn
    @A123

    No joke - I was very surprised, though in a good way.

    All the big football teams have extensive scouting networks and Italy has had a fairly large surge in African migrants this millenium. Its no secret that lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages ( much easier to identify a good youth athlete and convert him into a semi-decent footballer who can be sold for a big profit, than it is to identify a great pure football-talent kid)...... so you would have expected a result of these processes to be Italia having some generic big, strong and quick Africans in their team.

    The composition of the squad is very unusual in that they are from all parts of Italy from a club perspective, with many not even at good performing clubs. Spain, as with Italy also appears with their football team to be reversing the political/social trends in their country-the 1 African guy in the squad didn't even play in the tournament.

    France, even though historically they have been successful in the big football tournaments, often look very ugly and disjointed in their football style - most probably because of all the different whites, Arabs and Africans they have. Italia looked very much a true team, very good to watch

    Replies: @Beckow

    …lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages

    Most scouts are lazy: any open-ended work will promote stereotyping and laziness. A world with an infinite competition leads to decrease in meritocracy – replaced with biases, connections and lottery. We can consider merit when there are 5-10 options, when we have 100-1000 possibilities there is no room for it.

    Italy has kept enough of its tribal mentality and is one of the bright spots in EU. It is hard to comprehend what happened in the Germanic-Celtic northwest of EU – within a generation or two a massive dead-enders tsunami has devastated the societies there.

    • Replies: @kzn
    @Beckow


    Tsunami has devastated the societies there
     
    At a tangent - is it not funny how much of a big problem Putin and Russian authorities would be in if the disasterous result from flooding that occurred in Germany last week, had occurred during the same heavy rainfall that deluged Krasnodar and Crimea just a few days before? In Krim and Krasnodar they had near identical intensity and volume of rain as in that part of Germany......... but nowhere near the same catastrophic deaths.

    Obviously exact comparisons are difficult to do without knowing exact topography, location of certain infrastructure etc...... but the russia areas hit are far more populated than the German ones.
    German faggots in charge appear to be using "climate change" as an excuse of their gullible population - which is extremely dumb as this is a huge failure in planning and response from the German authorities. Climate change should only be an issue for increasing frequency of any heavy rainfalls - not for the heavy rainfall itself, which the engineers and government should always be planning for.

    No doubt that outright Nazi pillager-clown Reiner Tor will try to use any BS to excuse German authorities incompetence, and these same events have stopped the liberast-dummy Bashibuzuk/Masha from salivating at the flooding in Krim/Krasnodar and deprived him of the chance to attack "the regime".......... probably explaining his retirement from here.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  111. mal says:

    And in the financial Wonderland, junk bond yields are now below inflation.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/the-junk-bond-market-is-on-fire-this-year-as-yields-hit-a-record-low.html

    Do you have an alcoholic uncle? Quick! Grab his bar bill and run over to Goldman Sachs where they will gladly securitize it for you and sell the resulting bond to a pension fund. You will get a nice commission in the process.

    And I’m not even kidding – this is inevitable. Everything that can be securitized, will be securitized. Money is irrelevant, debt is everything. The more debt you own, the more debt you want.

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @mal

    Those people that want student debt cancelled have absolutely no clue. That stuff is gold.

  112. @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    One thing I forgot to say is how all successful Chinese games (Azur Lane, Girls' Frontline, Arknights, Genshin Impact...) outside China, are all in anime artstyle, not the gritty semi-realistic one that has been in tragedy of the commons mode domestically. This means those games have a good chance of passing off as Japanese (and indeed they hire Japanese to run JP servers). Azur Lane even copied the whole premise of Kantai Collection, which was a Japanese runaway success in 2013 (up to 2015)

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Daniel Chieh

    Yeah, China seems to have managed to adopted an unique storytelling style so far(the weird mixture of gnosticism, buddhism and quantum universes is pretty amusing), but not really an unique artstyle. But I think there’s cause for hope.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    Artstyle? There is basically not much room for innovation outside of those that can be also shared by Japanese artists. But the narrative and worldviews are gold.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  113. @AnonfromTN
    @Jazman

    The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.

    Basically, my point is, if Pfizer and Moderna “vaccines” have the composition the companies claim, they can’t be effective. If they are effective, they can’t have “disclosed” composition. So, either composition or effectiveness is a lie. In my experience, people lie when the truth is incompatible with their interests.

    Replies: @sudden death

    The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.

    ???…

    Quite cringey response above, as those UK’ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @sudden death


    those UK’ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.
     
    Most “vaccinated” people in the UK had Pfizer.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  114. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It's hard to follow your numbers. Can you provide your estimates in the format below to make them easier to calculate?


    US annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

    China annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

    What is the exchange rate between the yuan and USD in 2050? Moderately higher or lower than it is now (6.5 to 1), or a lot higher or lower?
     
    For inflation, we can simply assume 3% in both countries (inflation doubles every 25 years) as this variable is probably the most difficult to predict.

    US racial demographics

    Do you count all people who identify as white Hispanic on Census 2020 as functionally equivalent to non-Hispanic whites in contributing to a first-world economy? "According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 65.5% of Latinos identified as white." Considering the high number of Latinos in the US who identify as white and the big gap in incomes and education for Latinos in the US relative to non-Hispanic whites, I would guess really just a small fraction of Latinos are white enough to be functionally equivalent.

    By citing PISA and the number of white Hispanics, what is your ballpark conclusion about the hypothetical effect of 2050 racial demographics on GDP per capita in 2021? Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita? Like reduction under 5%? If so that would not be my estimate.

    US overtaking China again

    If the extreme scenario comes true of China's population falling to 700 million in 2100 then I think the US will overtake China in GDP in 2100. But I don't think such a dire population scenario will happen.

    Replies: @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    Various companies and institutions all over the place use real growth rates after removing inflation.

    Get some future value calculator and you will see that you need 4,75 % average growth rates for the period of 2020 – 2050 for China to reach 1,75 times bigger MER GDP by 2050, which is something that everyone, including the chinese government, admits that it is impossible.

    Variables: China 70 % of US GDP 2020
    US 100 % 2020

    US Growth rate as per most financial institutions for the 2020 – 2050 period is 1,7 (1,9 – 1,6 – 1,5 as per CBO)
    China’s growth rate for that period is 3,4 (5,1-2,9-2,2) (as per World Bank)

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

    Exchange rate – most estimate no more than 20 % currency appreciation of the CNY by that point. Some estimate no CNY appreciation at all. You are far from 1,75 times bigger China GDP at that point. The only way to get there is via massive 50 % CNY appreciation and i doubt that this will happen.

    US racial demographics

    If there was no positive white hispanic effect i doubt that the IQ of US migrants (second gen) will be just 4 points below that of the US population, as per PISA.

    Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita?

    Why not? The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues. If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa. The US gets some very innovative, high quality migrants, see Karlin’s article on it. Yes, it gets lots of third worlders too, but these effects neutralise each other so the overall IQ drop due to immigration is not that large, as PISA shows.

    How much will per capita GDP drop? It will drop for certain, but looking at what i said above

    The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues

    it does not look that it will be a big drop. At least right now we are not seeing anything like this.

    Assuming average migrant IQ of 94 it will take a long time IMO before US IQ drops in any meaningful sense. It will be probably 96 by 2100, compared to 98 today. Maybe 10 % lower GDP per capita due to that.

    US overtaking China again

    Witn Chinese TFR dropping below the quite low of 1,3 of today, – with ongoing urbanisation in China, which will further reduce TFR, it is a possible scenario. But for that to happen, China will also have to reject immigration (which is possible) while the US will also have to prefer Asian immigration (things are going in that direction).

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Passer by


    If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa.
     
    The US GDP growth rate has slowed somewhat over the past fifteen years, but the decline has been so slight only a fool would attempt to associate with it a decline in IQ (since there are so many other variables). "More like South Africa" is too vague a statement to bother disputing, but personally, I doubt even a 10 point decline in IQ would make anyone ever think "wow, this country reminds me of South Africa!" Parts of it obviously would (just as they do today), but they would be too few to give the whole country a real South African "feel."

    Replies: @Passer by

    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It's hard to follow the numbers based on real GDP growth rates over 30 years. Based on the predictions you use for real GDP growth rate, currency appreciation of either 20% or 0%, and assuming double inflation in both countries every 25 years. Based on those inputs what are your numbers for nominal GDP totals of China and the US in 2050?

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.


    2000-2019: around 1%
    1980-1999: around 2.25%

    Source: World Bank DataBank
     
    US racial demographics

    PISA scores for immigrants are hard to unpack for the purpose of figuring out the economic contributions of Latinos. Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data, making it unnecessary to get bogged down by PISA sub-scores. The income and education statistics show big gaps compared to non-Hispanic whites. And the frequently cited average IQ for Latinos in the US is 90. When Latinos become 1/3 of the country, I believe the Latino-black demographic bloc will significantly hamper the economic competitiveness of the US and lower GDP per capita.

    There is an interesting point about the number of high IQ immigrants balancing out the larger number of lower IQ immigrants because the quality of the top 5% by IQ in a society is very influential in determining GDP per capita. California is an example of this. However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor. I disagree. We have at least identified in our discussion a major premise disagreement.

    US overtaking China
     
    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Passer by, @Passer by

    , @Xi-Jinping
    @Passer by


    is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues.
     
    The only reason the US is "innovative per capita" than most countries is due to immigration. It does a poor job at raising local talent. As the rest of the world improves amd catches up (and Europe declines), I predict fewer people will emigrate from their countries (a reverse brain drain may even occur) and "US innovation" will greatly slow down. We are already seeing this in China, where many large Chinese tech companies are ex-Silicon Valley employees coming back to China to make their fortunes (ex Anker CEO). Currently China is undergoing a reform of its university system, I predict this will raise its Universities to a US standard (at minimum) so there will also be less motivation to go abroad, as the gov opens up more high quality universities throughout China.
  115. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

     

    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1rjfW-5HAE

    Amusingly, it has blood, zombies dolls, and what is basically a cult. All things you said were banned in China.

    While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite.

     

    America is "inclusive" in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr8ljRgcJNM

    Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

     

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations, but its the second largest producer of culture worldwide in influence(I remember actual metrics for this, but I can't find it now). There are dozens and dozens of more "inclusive" civilizations, like all over Latin America, with no real cultural exports, certainly not on that level of profitability.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/15/china-video-game-censorship-tencent-netease-blizzard

    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

    Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

    It normally does the opposite.

    America is “inclusive” in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

    The difference between our two perspectives on where creativity comes from is too great for us to agree; but I wonder if you can at least see my position?

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations

    Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what “inclusivity” is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

    Latin American cultural products tend to be atrocious at this, but Japanese ones tend to be excellent and speak to people on many levels. You can also see this in the way that Japan tolerates extreme weirdness, but Latin American countries, not so much.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

     

    The Guardian is a terrible source. The Ministry of Culture has various measures, but there's some degree of flexibility. If it was accurate, what I linked you wouldn't be possible.

    Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

     

    I actually don't know if this applies to media at all, sometimes. I think its generally true, but media has this "superstar all or nothing" quality that seems make exceptions into rules.

    I know the idea, but think about it, a lot of breakouts really did come from singular things: Japan's Akira(and later Evangelion) really anchored an entire anime industry to come, Korea's SNSD(Girl's Generation) and BTS has managed to build out its significant niche, and China's Girl's Frontline/Henshin/Genshin etc seem to building into stride with Punishing Grey Raven, and continuing on.

    I think part of why media is different is that once there is a success, imitators appear quickly and innovate from that(anime has some interesting history with that, with animators really starting a new style like Yoshinori Kanada, and then that style becoming dominant, before another "school of thought" modifies it). And if something is successful internationally, it tends to continue to be so.

    Its sorta amusing that Japan continues to manage it while basically ignoring international sales almost totally.

    Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what “inclusivity” is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

     

    I think the idea that Japan with its incredibly restrictive codes of behavior, even gendered speech(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_differences_in_Japanese), is more free than Latin America in terms of individuality. Its more complex than that, which I think I can explain a bit better as I used to work a lot with Japan(both professionally and hobby).

    Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange. That overall love and level of complexity might be more IQ related than anything.

    What Japan really does have is an entire societal structure built around what we would think of as cliques. In a professional level, you sometimes have people who have shared clubs in high school, then switch into professional cliques, which hook into governmental ones, etc. Abe was in one, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Kaigi

    This is true on the hobbyist level too, with multiple circles. There's a lot of surface politeness, but people are actually quite unpleasant to each other - and this is expected, partly because rivalry is valorized and uh, so is bullying.

    Bullying in Japanese schools, or ijime, is an entrenched problem. A study by the Tokyo Metropolitan School Personnel in Service Training Center in 2013 found that 66.2 percent of the more than 9,000 children it surveyed had been bullied.
     
    Anyway, part of having so many complex sub-groups in society is that they have leaders that peacock themselves, so you get people like Yoko Taro who get to be really joyfully weird. I don't think that's what usually think of inclusivity, though - the moment if their clique fails to be successfully, they'd be mercilessly crushed.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Yoko_Taro_cropped.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  116. @Mr. Hack
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/f1/b4/17/f1b4179ba055db0615f88e510b98e8a1--genesis-album-genesis-band.jpg

    Here, they've recovered their real place within society. :-)
    Fabulous album that I just bought yesterday and am listening to today!

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Not bad.

    Are you a Chicago fan? I was looking up some old songs on YT and came across this Russian cover band. Damn, pretty good, Chicago themselves gave them an ‘official’ stamp of approval.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @silviosilver

    Genesis was one of the greatest Prog-Rock groups ever. The good news is that all you really need is to have access to albums #3 - #6 (Nursery Crime - The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway) to listen to their finest material. Basically the Peter Gabriel era. Although the following Phil Collins era provided some nice catchy hits, the overall output was rather lame and sluggish IMHO.

    I used to like the Group "Chicago" and a similar one called "Blood, Sweat and Tears" (I actually saw this act in concert), however haven't listened to either group in years. I'll give your suggestion a listen to, thanks!

    , @Mr. Hack
    @silviosilver

    Wow! Really excellent renditions of Chicago's music. Pop music from the 1970's was so great, thanks for this trip down memory lane. And Xenia, what a beautiful and talented singer. Her rendition of the Rolling Stones "I can't get no satisfaction" was perhaps the best that I've ever heard. And her beautiful Slavic good looks...who can resist her charms?

    Thank you!

  117. @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    Various companies and institutions all over the place use real growth rates after removing inflation.

    Get some future value calculator and you will see that you need 4,75 % average growth rates for the period of 2020 - 2050 for China to reach 1,75 times bigger MER GDP by 2050, which is something that everyone, including the chinese government, admits that it is impossible.

    Variables: China 70 % of US GDP 2020
    US 100 % 2020

    US Growth rate as per most financial institutions for the 2020 - 2050 period is 1,7 (1,9 - 1,6 - 1,5 as per CBO)
    China's growth rate for that period is 3,4 (5,1-2,9-2,2) (as per World Bank)

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

    Exchange rate - most estimate no more than 20 % currency appreciation of the CNY by that point. Some estimate no CNY appreciation at all. You are far from 1,75 times bigger China GDP at that point. The only way to get there is via massive 50 % CNY appreciation and i doubt that this will happen.


    US racial demographics
     
    If there was no positive white hispanic effect i doubt that the IQ of US migrants (second gen) will be just 4 points below that of the US population, as per PISA.

    Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita?
     
    Why not? The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues. If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa. The US gets some very innovative, high quality migrants, see Karlin's article on it. Yes, it gets lots of third worlders too, but these effects neutralise each other so the overall IQ drop due to immigration is not that large, as PISA shows.

    How much will per capita GDP drop? It will drop for certain, but looking at what i said above


    The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues
     
    it does not look that it will be a big drop. At least right now we are not seeing anything like this.

    Assuming average migrant IQ of 94 it will take a long time IMO before US IQ drops in any meaningful sense. It will be probably 96 by 2100, compared to 98 today. Maybe 10 % lower GDP per capita due to that.


    US overtaking China again
     
    Witn Chinese TFR dropping below the quite low of 1,3 of today, - with ongoing urbanisation in China, which will further reduce TFR, it is a possible scenario. But for that to happen, China will also have to reject immigration (which is possible) while the US will also have to prefer Asian immigration (things are going in that direction).

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Xi-Jinping

    If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa.

    The US GDP growth rate has slowed somewhat over the past fifteen years, but the decline has been so slight only a fool would attempt to associate with it a decline in IQ (since there are so many other variables). “More like South Africa” is too vague a statement to bother disputing, but personally, I doubt even a 10 point decline in IQ would make anyone ever think “wow, this country reminds me of South Africa!” Parts of it obviously would (just as they do today), but they would be too few to give the whole country a real South African “feel.”

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @silviosilver

    Well, yeah, to be more like South Africa is too strong statement. Maybe more like Brazil, or more like Mexico, or Argentina.

    Well let's try this method. Median earnings of whites in the US are 93,5 % of those of Asians, while the earnings of hispanics and blacks are 60 % of those of asians. Currently there are 60 % non-hispanic whites, 6,5 % asians, 13,5 % blacks and nearly 20 % hispanics.

    That gives you a value of 8270. If we assume that in 2100 white non-hispanics will be 33,9 %, blacks will be 13,4 %, asians 18 %, hispanics 34,7 %, as per one recent study estimates, that assumes converging birth rates and current immigration levels, we get a value of 7856.

    This is about 5 % lower, therefore it predicts 5 % lower GDP per capita due to demographic changes. Lets call it best case scenario.

    Let's try another method: innovation rates. Whites are 100, asians are 80, black is 0,0, hispanic is 0,1.

    Currently we get a value of 6522.
    And in 2100 we get 4833 which is 74 % of the 2020 value. lets call it worse case scenario.

    Domestic innovation alone can not predict GDP growth very well due to the fact that there is globalised world and large flows of ideas and technology, thus even countries with low innovation rates reverse engineer some technology, steal some technology, or learn some open source technology and ideas developed by others, which is why you have relatively high GDP growth even in third world countries.

    So lets take the middle ground between innovation and earnings, between best case scenario and worse case scenario - which is 84,5 %. So the US gdp per capita should lose 15,5 % from its potential GDP by 2100, caused by demographic changes in the country. Not a small number, but not a big either.

  118. @inertial
    @Not Raul

    Funny how you think that I am the one who sounds patronizing and not the people who like to sneer at peasants.

    As for the phone, it's actually not a bad idea. The product here, of course, is not the phone itself but the bundle of apps. It could be a great help for non-technical normies who want to escape the grip of the tech monopolies but wouldn't know how to do it by themselves. Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure. But eventually someone will get it right.

    Replies: @Not Raul

    Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure.

    Freedom Phone definitely has problems.

    https://gab.com/InfiniteJest/posts/106596917574601626

  119. @silviosilver
    @Mr. Hack

    Not bad.

    Are you a Chicago fan? I was looking up some old songs on YT and came across this Russian cover band. Damn, pretty good, Chicago themselves gave them an 'official' stamp of approval.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVXUlV86bAM

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack

    Genesis was one of the greatest Prog-Rock groups ever. The good news is that all you really need is to have access to albums #3 – #6 (Nursery Crime – The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway) to listen to their finest material. Basically the Peter Gabriel era. Although the following Phil Collins era provided some nice catchy hits, the overall output was rather lame and sluggish IMHO.

    I used to like the Group “Chicago” and a similar one called “Blood, Sweat and Tears” (I actually saw this act in concert), however haven’t listened to either group in years. I’ll give your suggestion a listen to, thanks!

  120. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/15/china-video-game-censorship-tencent-netease-blizzard


    This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.
     
    Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

    It normally does the opposite.

    America is “inclusive” in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.
     
    The difference between our two perspectives on where creativity comes from is too great for us to agree; but I wonder if you can at least see my position?

    You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations
     
    Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what "inclusivity" is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

    Latin American cultural products tend to be atrocious at this, but Japanese ones tend to be excellent and speak to people on many levels. You can also see this in the way that Japan tolerates extreme weirdness, but Latin American countries, not so much.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

    The Guardian is a terrible source. The Ministry of Culture has various measures, but there’s some degree of flexibility. If it was accurate, what I linked you wouldn’t be possible.

    Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

    I actually don’t know if this applies to media at all, sometimes. I think its generally true, but media has this “superstar all or nothing” quality that seems make exceptions into rules.

    I know the idea, but think about it, a lot of breakouts really did come from singular things: Japan’s Akira(and later Evangelion) really anchored an entire anime industry to come, Korea’s SNSD(Girl’s Generation) and BTS has managed to build out its significant niche, and China’s Girl’s Frontline/Henshin/Genshin etc seem to building into stride with Punishing Grey Raven, and continuing on.

    I think part of why media is different is that once there is a success, imitators appear quickly and innovate from that(anime has some interesting history with that, with animators really starting a new style like Yoshinori Kanada, and then that style becoming dominant, before another “school of thought” modifies it). And if something is successful internationally, it tends to continue to be so.

    Its sorta amusing that Japan continues to manage it while basically ignoring international sales almost totally.

    Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what “inclusivity” is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

    I think the idea that Japan with its incredibly restrictive codes of behavior, even gendered speech(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_differences_in_Japanese), is more free than Latin America in terms of individuality. Its more complex than that, which I think I can explain a bit better as I used to work a lot with Japan(both professionally and hobby).

    Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange. That overall love and level of complexity might be more IQ related than anything.

    What Japan really does have is an entire societal structure built around what we would think of as cliques. In a professional level, you sometimes have people who have shared clubs in high school, then switch into professional cliques, which hook into governmental ones, etc. Abe was in one, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Kaigi

    This is true on the hobbyist level too, with multiple circles. There’s a lot of surface politeness, but people are actually quite unpleasant to each other – and this is expected, partly because rivalry is valorized and uh, so is bullying.

    Bullying in Japanese schools, or ijime, is an entrenched problem. A study by the Tokyo Metropolitan School Personnel in Service Training Center in 2013 found that 66.2 percent of the more than 9,000 children it surveyed had been bullied.

    Anyway, part of having so many complex sub-groups in society is that they have leaders that peacock themselves, so you get people like Yoko Taro who get to be really joyfully weird. I don’t think that’s what usually think of inclusivity, though – the moment if their clique fails to be successfully, they’d be mercilessly crushed.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    You are informing me of ways in which I may not see the unpleasant side, intolerant side of Japan, but Latin America so much worse than people think.

    Northern man, of all colours, really is an angel compared to the alternatives.


    Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange.
     
    Sounds like inclusive multiculturalism to me! It may be even better for this purpose than the US alternative.

    I am separating out progressive big aims from progressive practices. The practices may be often mad, bad and counter productive, as effective sociology and psychology is hard, but the aims are admirable. This gets forgotten far too often, both by progressives who forget the point, and their critics, who feel oppressed.

    Who doesn't want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  121. Anatoly I am once again pestering you about the Great Bifurcation text (and a progress report on the book would be nice)

    Pretend Bernie is writing this for maximum effect.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  122. @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    One thing I forgot to say is how all successful Chinese games (Azur Lane, Girls' Frontline, Arknights, Genshin Impact...) outside China, are all in anime artstyle, not the gritty semi-realistic one that has been in tragedy of the commons mode domestically. This means those games have a good chance of passing off as Japanese (and indeed they hire Japanese to run JP servers). Azur Lane even copied the whole premise of Kantai Collection, which was a Japanese runaway success in 2013 (up to 2015)

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Daniel Chieh

    Its funny – I was thinking that I first came to really realize that Chinese games had broken out was because a Canadian girl was happily sharing “omg this is so cute” images of Arksknight – like you mentioned, due to the Japanese style, I had not realized that Girl’s Frontline(which I still find weird) had become incredibly popular.

    I’ve been mildly amused by the fact that every single one of these games – Arksknight, Honkai, Frontline – all have multiple books worth of complexity in their storylines. There’s definitely some tradition of wuxia complexity that’s being inherited, probably unnecessarily, but its damn amusing and I actually think that seems to be a selling point. A lot of people do like lore and complexity.

    And this might be credited to miHoYo alone, but they actually seem to have pulled off the multi-chapter/seasonal game with beauty; I remember way back when the same was attempted in the US, first with small chapters and later with things like Half-Life…which still doesn’t have a conclusion…but miHoYo does seem to have managed it with their content updates to “tell a narrative.” Japanese versions like SinoALICE have not done so as well.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
  123. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

     

    The Guardian is a terrible source. The Ministry of Culture has various measures, but there's some degree of flexibility. If it was accurate, what I linked you wouldn't be possible.

    Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

     

    I actually don't know if this applies to media at all, sometimes. I think its generally true, but media has this "superstar all or nothing" quality that seems make exceptions into rules.

    I know the idea, but think about it, a lot of breakouts really did come from singular things: Japan's Akira(and later Evangelion) really anchored an entire anime industry to come, Korea's SNSD(Girl's Generation) and BTS has managed to build out its significant niche, and China's Girl's Frontline/Henshin/Genshin etc seem to building into stride with Punishing Grey Raven, and continuing on.

    I think part of why media is different is that once there is a success, imitators appear quickly and innovate from that(anime has some interesting history with that, with animators really starting a new style like Yoshinori Kanada, and then that style becoming dominant, before another "school of thought" modifies it). And if something is successful internationally, it tends to continue to be so.

    Its sorta amusing that Japan continues to manage it while basically ignoring international sales almost totally.

    Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what “inclusivity” is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

     

    I think the idea that Japan with its incredibly restrictive codes of behavior, even gendered speech(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_differences_in_Japanese), is more free than Latin America in terms of individuality. Its more complex than that, which I think I can explain a bit better as I used to work a lot with Japan(both professionally and hobby).

    Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange. That overall love and level of complexity might be more IQ related than anything.

    What Japan really does have is an entire societal structure built around what we would think of as cliques. In a professional level, you sometimes have people who have shared clubs in high school, then switch into professional cliques, which hook into governmental ones, etc. Abe was in one, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Kaigi

    This is true on the hobbyist level too, with multiple circles. There's a lot of surface politeness, but people are actually quite unpleasant to each other - and this is expected, partly because rivalry is valorized and uh, so is bullying.

    Bullying in Japanese schools, or ijime, is an entrenched problem. A study by the Tokyo Metropolitan School Personnel in Service Training Center in 2013 found that 66.2 percent of the more than 9,000 children it surveyed had been bullied.
     
    Anyway, part of having so many complex sub-groups in society is that they have leaders that peacock themselves, so you get people like Yoko Taro who get to be really joyfully weird. I don't think that's what usually think of inclusivity, though - the moment if their clique fails to be successfully, they'd be mercilessly crushed.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Yoko_Taro_cropped.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    You are informing me of ways in which I may not see the unpleasant side, intolerant side of Japan, but Latin America so much worse than people think.

    Northern man, of all colours, really is an angel compared to the alternatives.

    Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange.

    Sounds like inclusive multiculturalism to me! It may be even better for this purpose than the US alternative.

    I am separating out progressive big aims from progressive practices. The practices may be often mad, bad and counter productive, as effective sociology and psychology is hard, but the aims are admirable. This gets forgotten far too often, both by progressives who forget the point, and their critics, who feel oppressed.

    Who doesn’t want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Who doesn’t want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

     

    Well, what is described definitely isn't that. You can be tolerated if you're successful, that's it. That's nice, yes, but the default position is a kind of insecurity for everyone, with roles to stand in for personalities.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  124. A friend of mine sent me this poignant e-mail yesterday. I replied that the only image that I bow to is the one of our Savior. I’m sure that this message will resonate well with many who take part at this blogsite:

    First Hero of the WOKE and Cancel Culture:

    So a statue of Teddy Roosevelt in front of the Museum of American Natural History in New York City comes down and a bust of George Floyd goes up in Brooklyn borough of New York City. Yes, makes perfect sense. I wonder if the bust has a plaque listing all his good deeds and his contributions to society ……..
    — 3 armed robberies,
    — 2 violent home invasions,
    — 6 burglaries,
    — 3 car thefts,
    — Multiple illegal trespasses,
    — Cocaine and alcohol addiction,
    — Drug dealing (meth and fentanyl),
    — Beat 4 victims senseless,
    — 23 arrests,
    — holding a gun to a very pregnant belly of his robbery victim,
    — and lastly, passing a counterfeit $20 bill.

    George Floyd was a THUG, NOT a HERO!

    Where are the many statues of police to honor all the cops killed by criminals???

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Mr. Hack

    Big Floyd is a national hero.

    https://media.nbcnewyork.com/2021/06/george-floyd-statue-newark.jpg

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AnonfromTN

    , @Grahamsno(G64)
    @Mr. Hack

    He got buried in a GOLD COFFIN, omg speechless.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVrtM6IPw4g

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  125. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    You are informing me of ways in which I may not see the unpleasant side, intolerant side of Japan, but Latin America so much worse than people think.

    Northern man, of all colours, really is an angel compared to the alternatives.


    Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange.
     
    Sounds like inclusive multiculturalism to me! It may be even better for this purpose than the US alternative.

    I am separating out progressive big aims from progressive practices. The practices may be often mad, bad and counter productive, as effective sociology and psychology is hard, but the aims are admirable. This gets forgotten far too often, both by progressives who forget the point, and their critics, who feel oppressed.

    Who doesn't want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Who doesn’t want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

    Well, what is described definitely isn’t that. You can be tolerated if you’re successful, that’s it. That’s nice, yes, but the default position is a kind of insecurity for everyone, with roles to stand in for personalities.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you're extremely rich or homeless.

    You think that having to avoid offending progressive sensibilities is bad? In most of the world you have to actively show love, in all of your aesthetics, for whatever random cr*p that is popular. It is like a bad cliche of American high school times a million.

    The rest of the world does have a stronger private sphere, which allows people some freedom, but the public sphere, which, with modern technology, is more and more of life, is oppressively conformist.

    Latin America has been one big "everyone wears masks outdoors" jamboree for the last year. There is absolutely no evidence that this helps, but it is almost universally conformed to.

    The West thinks of the Japanese as conformist, like some people think Shia and Sunni are Muslims, so what's the difference, but less developed societies really are very extreme in this regards.

    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared. I suppose they imagine that they would have had the whip hand, and destroy their "enemies", but probability says not.

    The ability to zoom in and zoom out of a picture, at will, without getting stuck or mesmerised, seems to be extremely rare.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Svevlad

  126. @silviosilver
    @Passer by


    If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa.
     
    The US GDP growth rate has slowed somewhat over the past fifteen years, but the decline has been so slight only a fool would attempt to associate with it a decline in IQ (since there are so many other variables). "More like South Africa" is too vague a statement to bother disputing, but personally, I doubt even a 10 point decline in IQ would make anyone ever think "wow, this country reminds me of South Africa!" Parts of it obviously would (just as they do today), but they would be too few to give the whole country a real South African "feel."

    Replies: @Passer by

    Well, yeah, to be more like South Africa is too strong statement. Maybe more like Brazil, or more like Mexico, or Argentina.

    Well let’s try this method. Median earnings of whites in the US are 93,5 % of those of Asians, while the earnings of hispanics and blacks are 60 % of those of asians. Currently there are 60 % non-hispanic whites, 6,5 % asians, 13,5 % blacks and nearly 20 % hispanics.

    That gives you a value of 8270. If we assume that in 2100 white non-hispanics will be 33,9 %, blacks will be 13,4 %, asians 18 %, hispanics 34,7 %, as per one recent study estimates, that assumes converging birth rates and current immigration levels, we get a value of 7856.

    This is about 5 % lower, therefore it predicts 5 % lower GDP per capita due to demographic changes. Lets call it best case scenario.

    Let’s try another method: innovation rates. Whites are 100, asians are 80, black is 0,0, hispanic is 0,1.

    Currently we get a value of 6522.
    And in 2100 we get 4833 which is 74 % of the 2020 value. lets call it worse case scenario.

    Domestic innovation alone can not predict GDP growth very well due to the fact that there is globalised world and large flows of ideas and technology, thus even countries with low innovation rates reverse engineer some technology, steal some technology, or learn some open source technology and ideas developed by others, which is why you have relatively high GDP growth even in third world countries.

    So lets take the middle ground between innovation and earnings, between best case scenario and worse case scenario – which is 84,5 %. So the US gdp per capita should lose 15,5 % from its potential GDP by 2100, caused by demographic changes in the country. Not a small number, but not a big either.

  127. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    They're not really buy recommendations - just things that I consider to be of note and worth looking into, but not necessarily something to buy. I'm not planning to acquire any of them right now FWIW, stocks in general seem overheated.

    Transferwise (Wise) is 3x lower than Revolut on both p/e and mc, though Revolut has twice as many clients. OTOH, Revolut is aiming to be a full-fledged financial services provider, providing insurance, loans, stocks, even cryptos, etc., while Wise seems more exclusively focused on its original core competence of international transfers and remittances. Fintech in general is exploding (Revolut was $5B last year, now it's $33B; Tinkoff quadrupled), but how long will this last? I'm wary of investing much into such an overheated space and in fact recently sold off the last of my Tinkoff stocks.

    EMH: $1B for 12 clinics, even quite high quality one, seems a bit on the high side. OTOH, some private hospital chains in China are worth $30-50B. But I don't know enough about this sector to be comfortable about investing.

    23andme might be the most speculative. Could 100x eventually, if Genetics Revolution pans out and it becomes something like the premier social graph for genomics. Or it could crab indefinitely. Customer growth has been terrible in the last couple of years, I suppose that most of the people who wanted to be tested, have banally already done so. Overall I'm agnostic on its prospects.

    But yes, Yandex is mostly a long-term hold for me as well.

    Replies: @Boswald Bollocksworth, @Pericles

    Thanks and noted that this is not a “call” but just an observation about new companies. I will still buy a little of the US-traded ones just to take some risk, and so I have it in the portfolio to remember to look into them later.

    Russian investments in particularly are really interesting, as Russian rule of law gradually heals from the pre-Putin age, and Russia builds out her own domestic service economy.

  128. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    Various companies and institutions all over the place use real growth rates after removing inflation.

    Get some future value calculator and you will see that you need 4,75 % average growth rates for the period of 2020 - 2050 for China to reach 1,75 times bigger MER GDP by 2050, which is something that everyone, including the chinese government, admits that it is impossible.

    Variables: China 70 % of US GDP 2020
    US 100 % 2020

    US Growth rate as per most financial institutions for the 2020 - 2050 period is 1,7 (1,9 - 1,6 - 1,5 as per CBO)
    China's growth rate for that period is 3,4 (5,1-2,9-2,2) (as per World Bank)

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

    Exchange rate - most estimate no more than 20 % currency appreciation of the CNY by that point. Some estimate no CNY appreciation at all. You are far from 1,75 times bigger China GDP at that point. The only way to get there is via massive 50 % CNY appreciation and i doubt that this will happen.


    US racial demographics
     
    If there was no positive white hispanic effect i doubt that the IQ of US migrants (second gen) will be just 4 points below that of the US population, as per PISA.

    Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita?
     
    Why not? The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues. If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa. The US gets some very innovative, high quality migrants, see Karlin's article on it. Yes, it gets lots of third worlders too, but these effects neutralise each other so the overall IQ drop due to immigration is not that large, as PISA shows.

    How much will per capita GDP drop? It will drop for certain, but looking at what i said above


    The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues
     
    it does not look that it will be a big drop. At least right now we are not seeing anything like this.

    Assuming average migrant IQ of 94 it will take a long time IMO before US IQ drops in any meaningful sense. It will be probably 96 by 2100, compared to 98 today. Maybe 10 % lower GDP per capita due to that.


    US overtaking China again
     
    Witn Chinese TFR dropping below the quite low of 1,3 of today, - with ongoing urbanisation in China, which will further reduce TFR, it is a possible scenario. But for that to happen, China will also have to reject immigration (which is possible) while the US will also have to prefer Asian immigration (things are going in that direction).

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Xi-Jinping

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It’s hard to follow the numbers based on real GDP growth rates over 30 years. Based on the predictions you use for real GDP growth rate, currency appreciation of either 20% or 0%, and assuming double inflation in both countries every 25 years. Based on those inputs what are your numbers for nominal GDP totals of China and the US in 2050?

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.

    2000-2019: around 1%
    1980-1999: around 2.25%

    Source: World Bank DataBank

    US racial demographics

    PISA scores for immigrants are hard to unpack for the purpose of figuring out the economic contributions of Latinos. Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data, making it unnecessary to get bogged down by PISA sub-scores. The income and education statistics show big gaps compared to non-Hispanic whites. And the frequently cited average IQ for Latinos in the US is 90. When Latinos become 1/3 of the country, I believe the Latino-black demographic bloc will significantly hamper the economic competitiveness of the US and lower GDP per capita.

    There is an interesting point about the number of high IQ immigrants balancing out the larger number of lower IQ immigrants because the quality of the top 5% by IQ in a society is very influential in determining GDP per capita. California is an example of this. However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor. I disagree. We have at least identified in our discussion a major premise disagreement.

    US overtaking China

    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.
     
    This is not true at all. It has been increasing steadily, and this is measured in Dollars, which have been appreciating.

    https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-per-capita/table/by-year

    Replies: @Shortsword

    , @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    All banks and financial institutions give you real GDP growth rates after accounting for inflation, this is what real gdp growth means.

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.
     
    Yeah, it is declining in all rich countries, regardless if there is large third world immigration or not, see Japan or Taiwan. This is the diminishing returns effect in economics. The richer you get, the lower the growth rate, in general.

    What are the numbers - see those from Bloomberg for example. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Average growth per year.

    China Growth Scenario Base case
    2021-2030 5.0%
    2031-2040 3.7%
    2041-2050 2.6%

    US future growth numbers can be taken from CBO, they are 2,35 % for 2021-2030, 1,6 % for 2030-2040, 1,5 % for 2040-2050.

    These are not per capita estimates but total gdp growth estimates, using widely available demographic data mostly in line with the UN population projections.

    China is currently 70,4 % GDP of the US and US is 100.

    Using a future value calc, this gives you China being 1,24 times bigger in MER GDP by 2050. Assuming relatively optimistic 20 % CNY appreciation that gives you 1,49 times bigger Chinese GDP by 2050.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney


    US racial demographics
     

    Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data
     
    I already made calculations using earnings and innovation rates in a comment above, check them out.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor.
     

    I only spoke about economics, not about political and other issues. China i believe will be more stable than the US.

    I don't want to insist also, if you see my first wild guess was a 10 % US per capita GDP drop by 2100, later after some calcs i made i moved onto 15,5 % drop. I'm pretty open about ideas, actually i'm not a fan of the US. But i sometimes like to play devil's advocate too.

    I'm pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, so if there was some significant IQ and innovation drop the country should be more like Argentina or something. It should be showing in those parameters above. It shouldn't be so innovative currently, or be so rich, or have such gdp growth rates. And it is not showing, nothing significant, therefore the economic decline caused by the present demographics changes is relatively small.


    US overtaking China
     

    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.
     
    Well, i don't know. The likes of Japan or Korea seems to be doing nothing, they probably prefer that overpopulation will decrease. China though faces great power competition, so it has to act. I'm just saying that the current demographic numbers out of China - 1,3 TFR with still large rural population, that will urbanise in the future, and thus TFR will drop further, a pretty bad.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @china-russia-all-the-way

    , @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.
     
    That must take into account that California is very important for overall US GDP and innovation, much more than Florida. Then there is the broad issue of the US having an economy of scale. This is significant.

    If you look at the US as a whole and not per states, the US has one of the highest rates of production of high quality science in the world per capita, beating almost all other rich countries. So the US itself, as a whole, (per capita of its total population) "vacuums up so much global talent". Karlin made articles on it.
  129. @Mr. Hack
    A friend of mine sent me this poignant e-mail yesterday. I replied that the only image that I bow to is the one of our Savior. I'm sure that this message will resonate well with many who take part at this blogsite:

    First Hero of the WOKE and Cancel Culture:

    https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/06/19/USAT/9c74de91-e0a9-40f2-a837-72692334f74a-GTY_1233540984.jpg?width=660&height=441&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp

    So a statue of Teddy Roosevelt in front of the Museum of American Natural History in New York City comes down and a bust of George Floyd goes up in Brooklyn borough of New York City. Yes, makes perfect sense. I wonder if the bust has a plaque listing all his good deeds and his contributions to society ........
    — 3 armed robberies,
    — 2 violent home invasions,
    — 6 burglaries,
    — 3 car thefts,
    — Multiple illegal trespasses,
    — Cocaine and alcohol addiction,
    — Drug dealing (meth and fentanyl),
    — Beat 4 victims senseless,
    — 23 arrests,
    — holding a gun to a very pregnant belly of his robbery victim,
    — and lastly, passing a counterfeit $20 bill.

    George Floyd was a THUG, NOT a HERO!

    Where are the many statues of police to honor all the cops killed by criminals???

    Replies: @Shortsword, @Grahamsno(G64)

    Big Floyd is a national hero.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Shortsword

    I think that our elites chose the wrong guy to fill the shoes of a "national hero" for the country.

    Although I think that the cops that apprehended this long term felon went too far in their "policing tactics", there was no good reason to choose him as some sort of demigod to be worshiped by the masses. His enthronement was ill thought out, and he will not serve the overall public interest as a legitimate rallying symbol.

    Replies: @Shortsword

    , @AnonfromTN
    @Shortsword


    Big Floyd is a national hero.
     
    Tell me who is your national hero, and I tell you what kind of nation you are.

    Replies: @silviosilver

  130. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Who doesn’t want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

     

    Well, what is described definitely isn't that. You can be tolerated if you're successful, that's it. That's nice, yes, but the default position is a kind of insecurity for everyone, with roles to stand in for personalities.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

    You think that having to avoid offending progressive sensibilities is bad? In most of the world you have to actively show love, in all of your aesthetics, for whatever random cr*p that is popular. It is like a bad cliche of American high school times a million.

    The rest of the world does have a stronger private sphere, which allows people some freedom, but the public sphere, which, with modern technology, is more and more of life, is oppressively conformist.

    Latin America has been one big “everyone wears masks outdoors” jamboree for the last year. There is absolutely no evidence that this helps, but it is almost universally conformed to.

    The West thinks of the Japanese as conformist, like some people think Shia and Sunni are Muslims, so what’s the difference, but less developed societies really are very extreme in this regards.

    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared. I suppose they imagine that they would have had the whip hand, and destroy their “enemies”, but probability says not.

    The ability to zoom in and zoom out of a picture, at will, without getting stuck or mesmerised, seems to be extremely rare.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

     

    Well, no, I think you're underestimating the extremes here. Unless you're extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

    However, I do think one contrast from what you said that is while there's more conmformity in Japan(and yes, yes, there is, the economic miracle post war would be impossible without it), it is a an effort to build a pleasant conformity. Everything in society often seems to emphasize a role, so while for example, mothers are expected not to work, there's an entire status thing with fashion and "women who do lunch" which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can't make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that's basically fine because if they can't think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they're pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

    It is in many ways, pretty well designed. You don't impose crushing conformity, you kind of harmonize it into being. Its pretty crushing, but it feels organic. That's actually one of the great successes.


    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared.
     
    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks...kinda like Twitter(lol), than anything else. Its people who try to create rival parties that face worse punishment, but its not like the US isn't already there with the declaration of people as "extremists" and "extremist organizations."

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Xi-Jinping

    , @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa

    From what I have gathered over time, it turns out that Serbia, where the local soyadeen constantly bitch and moan about a "patriarchal xenophobic culture" is pretty much the most open. The worst we do is talk shit - and we do that to our friends, even. It's all banter.

  131. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It's hard to follow the numbers based on real GDP growth rates over 30 years. Based on the predictions you use for real GDP growth rate, currency appreciation of either 20% or 0%, and assuming double inflation in both countries every 25 years. Based on those inputs what are your numbers for nominal GDP totals of China and the US in 2050?

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.


    2000-2019: around 1%
    1980-1999: around 2.25%

    Source: World Bank DataBank
     
    US racial demographics

    PISA scores for immigrants are hard to unpack for the purpose of figuring out the economic contributions of Latinos. Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data, making it unnecessary to get bogged down by PISA sub-scores. The income and education statistics show big gaps compared to non-Hispanic whites. And the frequently cited average IQ for Latinos in the US is 90. When Latinos become 1/3 of the country, I believe the Latino-black demographic bloc will significantly hamper the economic competitiveness of the US and lower GDP per capita.

    There is an interesting point about the number of high IQ immigrants balancing out the larger number of lower IQ immigrants because the quality of the top 5% by IQ in a society is very influential in determining GDP per capita. California is an example of this. However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor. I disagree. We have at least identified in our discussion a major premise disagreement.

    US overtaking China
     
    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Passer by, @Passer by

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.

    This is not true at all. It has been increasing steadily, and this is measured in Dollars, which have been appreciating.

    https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-per-capita/table/by-year

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Triteleia Laxa

    He wrote growth has been declining. But that's true for most of the world anyway.

  132. @Triteleia Laxa
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.
     
    This is not true at all. It has been increasing steadily, and this is measured in Dollars, which have been appreciating.

    https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-per-capita/table/by-year

    Replies: @Shortsword

    He wrote growth has been declining. But that’s true for most of the world anyway.

    • Thanks: Triteleia Laxa
  133. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    What is the average annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US from 1980-1999? What is it for 2000-19?

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    I can certainly say that it is slowly dropping, just like it is dropping for any rich country out there. Population ageing and the law of diminishing returns do not allow high growth rates in rich countries.
    Here the gdp growth per worker in the US is actually higher than in Japan. In per capita growth its even worse for Japan since many in that ageing country are pensioners, so when you compare such countries it is better to look at per worker gdp growth.

    https://www.rstreet.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/pollock-table-3.png

  134. @Shortsword
    @Mr. Hack

    Big Floyd is a national hero.

    https://media.nbcnewyork.com/2021/06/george-floyd-statue-newark.jpg

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AnonfromTN

    I think that our elites chose the wrong guy to fill the shoes of a “national hero” for the country.

    Although I think that the cops that apprehended this long term felon went too far in their “policing tactics”, there was no good reason to choose him as some sort of demigod to be worshiped by the masses. His enthronement was ill thought out, and he will not serve the overall public interest as a legitimate rallying symbol.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Mr. Hack

    What disappoints me is that there are only two Big Floyd statues. I expected better.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  135. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you're extremely rich or homeless.

    You think that having to avoid offending progressive sensibilities is bad? In most of the world you have to actively show love, in all of your aesthetics, for whatever random cr*p that is popular. It is like a bad cliche of American high school times a million.

    The rest of the world does have a stronger private sphere, which allows people some freedom, but the public sphere, which, with modern technology, is more and more of life, is oppressively conformist.

    Latin America has been one big "everyone wears masks outdoors" jamboree for the last year. There is absolutely no evidence that this helps, but it is almost universally conformed to.

    The West thinks of the Japanese as conformist, like some people think Shia and Sunni are Muslims, so what's the difference, but less developed societies really are very extreme in this regards.

    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared. I suppose they imagine that they would have had the whip hand, and destroy their "enemies", but probability says not.

    The ability to zoom in and zoom out of a picture, at will, without getting stuck or mesmerised, seems to be extremely rare.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Svevlad

    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

    However, I do think one contrast from what you said that is while there’s more conmformity in Japan(and yes, yes, there is, the economic miracle post war would be impossible without it), it is a an effort to build a pleasant conformity. Everything in society often seems to emphasize a role, so while for example, mothers are expected not to work, there’s an entire status thing with fashion and “women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

    It is in many ways, pretty well designed. You don’t impose crushing conformity, you kind of harmonize it into being. Its pretty crushing, but it feels organic. That’s actually one of the great successes.

    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared.

    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks…kinda like Twitter(lol), than anything else. Its people who try to create rival parties that face worse punishment, but its not like the US isn’t already there with the declaration of people as “extremists” and “extremist organizations.”

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks
     
    Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

    Where's their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make 'yellow genocide"?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an "open" discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas - as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

    This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.
     
    I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

    Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can
     
    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly "impossible" for women. Or even negative at all.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Xi-Jinping, @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    , @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh


    women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.
     
    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce. The solution for China and Japan to reverse their poor fertility rates is to make it seem that having many children is a very pleasant and socially desirable thing for women. If combined with good social/financial planning, I predict demographic trends to reverse in a generation (with good enough propaganda and strict censorship).

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

  136. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It's hard to follow the numbers based on real GDP growth rates over 30 years. Based on the predictions you use for real GDP growth rate, currency appreciation of either 20% or 0%, and assuming double inflation in both countries every 25 years. Based on those inputs what are your numbers for nominal GDP totals of China and the US in 2050?

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.


    2000-2019: around 1%
    1980-1999: around 2.25%

    Source: World Bank DataBank
     
    US racial demographics

    PISA scores for immigrants are hard to unpack for the purpose of figuring out the economic contributions of Latinos. Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data, making it unnecessary to get bogged down by PISA sub-scores. The income and education statistics show big gaps compared to non-Hispanic whites. And the frequently cited average IQ for Latinos in the US is 90. When Latinos become 1/3 of the country, I believe the Latino-black demographic bloc will significantly hamper the economic competitiveness of the US and lower GDP per capita.

    There is an interesting point about the number of high IQ immigrants balancing out the larger number of lower IQ immigrants because the quality of the top 5% by IQ in a society is very influential in determining GDP per capita. California is an example of this. However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor. I disagree. We have at least identified in our discussion a major premise disagreement.

    US overtaking China
     
    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Passer by, @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    All banks and financial institutions give you real GDP growth rates after accounting for inflation, this is what real gdp growth means.

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.

    Yeah, it is declining in all rich countries, regardless if there is large third world immigration or not, see Japan or Taiwan. This is the diminishing returns effect in economics. The richer you get, the lower the growth rate, in general.

    What are the numbers – see those from Bloomberg for example. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Average growth per year.

    China Growth Scenario Base case
    2021-2030 5.0%
    2031-2040 3.7%
    2041-2050 2.6%

    US future growth numbers can be taken from CBO, they are 2,35 % for 2021-2030, 1,6 % for 2030-2040, 1,5 % for 2040-2050.

    These are not per capita estimates but total gdp growth estimates, using widely available demographic data mostly in line with the UN population projections.

    China is currently 70,4 % GDP of the US and US is 100.

    Using a future value calc, this gives you China being 1,24 times bigger in MER GDP by 2050. Assuming relatively optimistic 20 % CNY appreciation that gives you 1,49 times bigger Chinese GDP by 2050.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

    US racial demographics

    Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data

    I already made calculations using earnings and innovation rates in a comment above, check them out.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor.

    I only spoke about economics, not about political and other issues. China i believe will be more stable than the US.

    I don’t want to insist also, if you see my first wild guess was a 10 % US per capita GDP drop by 2100, later after some calcs i made i moved onto 15,5 % drop. I’m pretty open about ideas, actually i’m not a fan of the US. But i sometimes like to play devil’s advocate too.

    I’m pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, so if there was some significant IQ and innovation drop the country should be more like Argentina or something. It should be showing in those parameters above. It shouldn’t be so innovative currently, or be so rich, or have such gdp growth rates. And it is not showing, nothing significant, therefore the economic decline caused by the present demographics changes is relatively small.

    US overtaking China

    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

    Well, i don’t know. The likes of Japan or Korea seems to be doing nothing, they probably prefer that overpopulation will decrease. China though faces great power competition, so it has to act. I’m just saying that the current demographic numbers out of China – 1,3 TFR with still large rural population, that will urbanise in the future, and thus TFR will drop further, a pretty bad.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Passer by


    I’m pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world,
     
    I've been reading with interest your discussion with Daniel Chieh regarding the world economic situation especially as regards between China and the US. I'm glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050's. I think that the greatest impediment to US hegemony will not be greatly tested until a serious threat is made to the US dollar as the world's petrodollar and reserve currency medium. Do you or Daniel have any thoughts as to when such a play may actually be made to unseat this very advantageous situation for the US economy?

    Replies: @Passer by

    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years. A more HBD-orientated prediction uses South Korea's economic trajectory of the last 30 years as a reference point for China's next 30 years. In 2021, South Korea had a GDP per capita of 51% of the US.

    If China has 3.5 times the people as the US in 2050, you predict at the upper end, China will have a GDP per capita that is 43% of the US. I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead. The reasons are the South Korean precedent and US decline. China may not do as well as South Korea because of the constraints of being a big country (e.g. no possible way to match South Korean export market share in proportion to population), but I also believe US GDP per capita growth will be weaker over the next 30 years compared to the past. It will be hobbled by racial demographics.

    US racial demographics

    The US is by far the richest country per capita among countries with populations higher than 10 million. That makes it hard to see any effect of greater racial diversity on economic performance. But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn't get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.

    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.

    US over taking China

    As this is 80 years away it's too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Passer by

  137. @china-russia-all-the-way
    What is the average annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US from 1980-1999? What is it for 2000-19?

    Replies: @Passer by

    I can certainly say that it is slowly dropping, just like it is dropping for any rich country out there. Population ageing and the law of diminishing returns do not allow high growth rates in rich countries.
    Here the gdp growth per worker in the US is actually higher than in Japan. In per capita growth its even worse for Japan since many in that ageing country are pensioners, so when you compare such countries it is better to look at per worker gdp growth.

  138. @songbird
    Here's another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

    And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

    Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

    Replies: @AaronB, @Svevlad, @Daniel Chieh, @silviosilver, @Joe Paluka, @Alfa158

    You got that “fact” that aborigines have 4X better vision from a fluff online news source. Here’s an Australian government source that speaks of the myriad of eye problems that abos have. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/indigenous-australians/eye-health-in-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islande/contents/summary

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Joe Paluka

    I'm talking about the brain's ability to process the signal from the eyes. Not the eyes themselves.

    Hunter gatherers tend to have better ability to process movement.

  139. @Mr. Hack
    @Shortsword

    I think that our elites chose the wrong guy to fill the shoes of a "national hero" for the country.

    Although I think that the cops that apprehended this long term felon went too far in their "policing tactics", there was no good reason to choose him as some sort of demigod to be worshiped by the masses. His enthronement was ill thought out, and he will not serve the overall public interest as a legitimate rallying symbol.

    Replies: @Shortsword

    What disappoints me is that there are only two Big Floyd statues. I expected better.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Shortsword

    Why not spearhead a campaign to have one more erected in your hometown? Collections for other more frivolous causes are made everyday.

  140. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

     

    Well, no, I think you're underestimating the extremes here. Unless you're extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

    However, I do think one contrast from what you said that is while there's more conmformity in Japan(and yes, yes, there is, the economic miracle post war would be impossible without it), it is a an effort to build a pleasant conformity. Everything in society often seems to emphasize a role, so while for example, mothers are expected not to work, there's an entire status thing with fashion and "women who do lunch" which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can't make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that's basically fine because if they can't think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they're pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

    It is in many ways, pretty well designed. You don't impose crushing conformity, you kind of harmonize it into being. Its pretty crushing, but it feels organic. That's actually one of the great successes.


    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared.
     
    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks...kinda like Twitter(lol), than anything else. Its people who try to create rival parties that face worse punishment, but its not like the US isn't already there with the declaration of people as "extremists" and "extremist organizations."

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Xi-Jinping

    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks

    Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

    Where’s their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make ‘yellow genocide”?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an “open” discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas – as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

    This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

    I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

    Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can

    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly “impossible” for women. Or even negative at all.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa



    Where’s their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make ‘yellow genocide”?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an “open” discussion on
     
    lol, there was actually a couple at one point which said that "Chinese people should have died, Japanese should have won WW2" and that was actually in official academia, not just zihui.

    There was also the pretty entertainingly insane Auntology, which was a bit like the "yellow genocide" but its more like "keep everyone as a slave caste member."

    https://supchina.com/2019/03/13/chinas-intellectual-dark-web-and-its-most-active-fanatic/

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You should read Weibo, people constantly complain about stuff and protests are encouraged in China and the government seems to be far more responsive.

    Check out the below article for more on the matter:


    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/02/surprise-authoritarian-resilience-china/

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The great shame of Xbox, and Microsoft, as my father noted (working there), is that they absolutely, positively refuse to build factories in Japan and South America, despite the fact their these people actually game, can appreciate Xbox games, and more importantly, buy nationalist. Meaning, one must first produce there to sell there, but this ensures a chance at the market. Alas, Microsoft leadership is as short sighted as many American mega-corporations.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly “impossible” for women. Or even negative at all.

     

    Numbers are deceptive, women are mostly in part-time labor.

    https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/17262.jpeg

    And the grade-editing is reasonably well known.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/08/tokyo-medical-school-admits-changing-results-to-exclude-women

    Given the same clique system I mentioned before and the importance of informal "shadowy" organizations, it serves as effective barriers while not actually appearing as such. Like I mentioned before, I actually think this is somehow rather admirable because it comes off as fairly smooth and nonconfrontational(though its innately hypocritical, much like how crime is effective zero, but mobsters like yazuka are legal, so their crime is intentionally overlooked).

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  141. @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    All banks and financial institutions give you real GDP growth rates after accounting for inflation, this is what real gdp growth means.

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.
     
    Yeah, it is declining in all rich countries, regardless if there is large third world immigration or not, see Japan or Taiwan. This is the diminishing returns effect in economics. The richer you get, the lower the growth rate, in general.

    What are the numbers - see those from Bloomberg for example. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Average growth per year.

    China Growth Scenario Base case
    2021-2030 5.0%
    2031-2040 3.7%
    2041-2050 2.6%

    US future growth numbers can be taken from CBO, they are 2,35 % for 2021-2030, 1,6 % for 2030-2040, 1,5 % for 2040-2050.

    These are not per capita estimates but total gdp growth estimates, using widely available demographic data mostly in line with the UN population projections.

    China is currently 70,4 % GDP of the US and US is 100.

    Using a future value calc, this gives you China being 1,24 times bigger in MER GDP by 2050. Assuming relatively optimistic 20 % CNY appreciation that gives you 1,49 times bigger Chinese GDP by 2050.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney


    US racial demographics
     

    Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data
     
    I already made calculations using earnings and innovation rates in a comment above, check them out.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor.
     

    I only spoke about economics, not about political and other issues. China i believe will be more stable than the US.

    I don't want to insist also, if you see my first wild guess was a 10 % US per capita GDP drop by 2100, later after some calcs i made i moved onto 15,5 % drop. I'm pretty open about ideas, actually i'm not a fan of the US. But i sometimes like to play devil's advocate too.

    I'm pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, so if there was some significant IQ and innovation drop the country should be more like Argentina or something. It should be showing in those parameters above. It shouldn't be so innovative currently, or be so rich, or have such gdp growth rates. And it is not showing, nothing significant, therefore the economic decline caused by the present demographics changes is relatively small.


    US overtaking China
     

    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.
     
    Well, i don't know. The likes of Japan or Korea seems to be doing nothing, they probably prefer that overpopulation will decrease. China though faces great power competition, so it has to act. I'm just saying that the current demographic numbers out of China - 1,3 TFR with still large rural population, that will urbanise in the future, and thus TFR will drop further, a pretty bad.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @china-russia-all-the-way

    I’m pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world,

    I’ve been reading with interest your discussion with Daniel Chieh regarding the world economic situation especially as regards between China and the US. I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s. I think that the greatest impediment to US hegemony will not be greatly tested until a serious threat is made to the US dollar as the world’s petrodollar and reserve currency medium. Do you or Daniel have any thoughts as to when such a play may actually be made to unseat this very advantageous situation for the US economy?

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Mr. Hack


    I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s.
     
    I'm not saying that. Politically the country will become more polarised and fractured. Politics may have an effect on economics. The US also has large and growing debts. The US military will be cut, it is already baked in in future budgets. The US dollar in general will be weakening in the long term both due to the debt issue and the decline in the share of the US in the global economy. The US will be a declining country (in relative decline), imo, up to 2100. I also think that China will be a declining country after 2050, so both of them will be declining.

    IMO the dollar will lose its dominant place, but slowly. There should be a basket of currencies, gold and crypto replacing the dollar, with the dollar still acounting for maybe 25% -30 % of globalreserves, but it will happen slowly imo. By 2050. Not by 2030. It is right now at 59 %. The CNY is estimated to reach 10 % in global reserves by 2030. The dollar will lose its place much faster in transactions, it is happening now, as countries are looking to avoid sanctions or surveillance. It is right now at 39 %.

    So i see a multipolar world in the making, not US dominated, but not China dominated either. Peak China power should be around 2050, i think it will take Taiwan by the 2040s, after that things should get really chaotic and interesting, with India reaching near US GDP at the end of the century, Africa reaching 3-4 trillion people, and muslims becoming nearly 35 % of the global population. A real multipolar world. I think that the curent system will collapse by 2050. It will be more non-white, more post european world. And it should be more dangerous too, probably the NPT regime will collapse, as more and more players emerge, and many countries will obtain nuclear weapons.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Xi-Jinping

  142. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    It's hard to follow the numbers based on real GDP growth rates over 30 years. Based on the predictions you use for real GDP growth rate, currency appreciation of either 20% or 0%, and assuming double inflation in both countries every 25 years. Based on those inputs what are your numbers for nominal GDP totals of China and the US in 2050?

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.


    2000-2019: around 1%
    1980-1999: around 2.25%

    Source: World Bank DataBank
     
    US racial demographics

    PISA scores for immigrants are hard to unpack for the purpose of figuring out the economic contributions of Latinos. Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data, making it unnecessary to get bogged down by PISA sub-scores. The income and education statistics show big gaps compared to non-Hispanic whites. And the frequently cited average IQ for Latinos in the US is 90. When Latinos become 1/3 of the country, I believe the Latino-black demographic bloc will significantly hamper the economic competitiveness of the US and lower GDP per capita.

    There is an interesting point about the number of high IQ immigrants balancing out the larger number of lower IQ immigrants because the quality of the top 5% by IQ in a society is very influential in determining GDP per capita. California is an example of this. However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor. I disagree. We have at least identified in our discussion a major premise disagreement.

    US overtaking China
     
    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Passer by, @Passer by

    However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

    That must take into account that California is very important for overall US GDP and innovation, much more than Florida. Then there is the broad issue of the US having an economy of scale. This is significant.

    If you look at the US as a whole and not per states, the US has one of the highest rates of production of high quality science in the world per capita, beating almost all other rich countries. So the US itself, as a whole, (per capita of its total population) “vacuums up so much global talent”. Karlin made articles on it.

  143. @silviosilver
    @Felix Keverich


    But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.
     
    You can't simply rely on fertility rate decreases to keep them out. "Avoid the groid" must evolve from a sage local watchword to a global moral imperative - the stuff of formal compacts - else, in the fullness of time, we'll all eventually succumb to negrofuxation. If that happens, any alien civilization that seeks us out for having decoded the gold disc on Voyager would surely shudder at what became of the late, great planet Earth.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @songbird

    If aliens somehow managed to find the gold record on Voyager, then they would probably have enough evidence to theorize that we were destroyed by poz.

  144. @Shortsword
    @Mr. Hack

    What disappoints me is that there are only two Big Floyd statues. I expected better.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Why not spearhead a campaign to have one more erected in your hometown? Collections for other more frivolous causes are made everyday.

  145. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks
     
    Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

    Where's their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make 'yellow genocide"?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an "open" discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas - as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

    This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.
     
    I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

    Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can
     
    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly "impossible" for women. Or even negative at all.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Xi-Jinping, @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    Where’s their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make ‘yellow genocide”?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an “open” discussion on

    lol, there was actually a couple at one point which said that “Chinese people should have died, Japanese should have won WW2” and that was actually in official academia, not just zihui.

    There was also the pretty entertainingly insane Auntology, which was a bit like the “yellow genocide” but its more like “keep everyone as a slave caste member.”

    https://supchina.com/2019/03/13/chinas-intellectual-dark-web-and-its-most-active-fanatic/

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    That's still nothing on Unz, it is Chinese Brett Weinstein, and those sites are either censored or they're hosted abroad and the authorities try to ban them, from what I've looked up. I also notice that the one you provided before, as evidence of some dissent being allowed, is, from what I actually read, no more dissenting than the White House PR office.

    I am sure that China has many weird, mad and wonderful ideological currents, but it feels like you're telling me it is the middle of day outside, because it is not completely pitch black.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

  146. @Mr. Hack
    @Passer by


    I’m pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world,
     
    I've been reading with interest your discussion with Daniel Chieh regarding the world economic situation especially as regards between China and the US. I'm glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050's. I think that the greatest impediment to US hegemony will not be greatly tested until a serious threat is made to the US dollar as the world's petrodollar and reserve currency medium. Do you or Daniel have any thoughts as to when such a play may actually be made to unseat this very advantageous situation for the US economy?

    Replies: @Passer by

    I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s.

    I’m not saying that. Politically the country will become more polarised and fractured. Politics may have an effect on economics. The US also has large and growing debts. The US military will be cut, it is already baked in in future budgets. The US dollar in general will be weakening in the long term both due to the debt issue and the decline in the share of the US in the global economy. The US will be a declining country (in relative decline), imo, up to 2100. I also think that China will be a declining country after 2050, so both of them will be declining.

    IMO the dollar will lose its dominant place, but slowly. There should be a basket of currencies, gold and crypto replacing the dollar, with the dollar still acounting for maybe 25% -30 % of globalreserves, but it will happen slowly imo. By 2050. Not by 2030. It is right now at 59 %. The CNY is estimated to reach 10 % in global reserves by 2030. The dollar will lose its place much faster in transactions, it is happening now, as countries are looking to avoid sanctions or surveillance. It is right now at 39 %.

    So i see a multipolar world in the making, not US dominated, but not China dominated either. Peak China power should be around 2050, i think it will take Taiwan by the 2040s, after that things should get really chaotic and interesting, with India reaching near US GDP at the end of the century, Africa reaching 3-4 trillion people, and muslims becoming nearly 35 % of the global population. A real multipolar world. I think that the curent system will collapse by 2050. It will be more non-white, more post european world. And it should be more dangerous too, probably the NPT regime will collapse, as more and more players emerge, and many countries will obtain nuclear weapons.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Passer by


    I’m not saying that.
     
    It looks to me like you're backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture...I'm probably nitpicking here and do appreciate your fuller reply in #147.

    Replies: @Passer by

    , @Xi-Jinping
    @Passer by

    You are making one crucial assumption that needs to be examined - that the US will remain intact as it is now. The uncentralized nature (ie each State is semi-autonomous) of the USA where each "State" is essentially its own country with a unified currency and protected by a central government, means that if the US economy declines, stops being first,' its productivity falls, has too many people of a certain ethnicity (say Latinos) concentrated in one place - it can so happen that States begin to remember historical grievances or suddenly "discover" a new identity (like Ukraine or the provinces of the Roman Empire) that is suddenly at odds with the rest of the US and may attempt secession - especially if the power of the Feds weaken, some governors may figure it will be better for them if they where the President of their own country.

    This often happens to States/Empires that begin an (even modest) economic decline. This happened to Rome, Britain and USSR. It doesnt usually happen to relatively homogenous states, but the US is not homogenous and will become less so over time. Moreover the semi-autonomous nature of its State system seems like it would lend itself well to splintering. A splintering will ruin any projections of econokic growth.

    So do you think its likely the US will remain intact in its current State or splinter based on ethnic, economic or Racial lines?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by

  147. @Joe Paluka
    @songbird

    You got that "fact" that aborigines have 4X better vision from a fluff online news source. Here's an Australian government source that speaks of the myriad of eye problems that abos have. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/indigenous-australians/eye-health-in-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islande/contents/summary

    Replies: @songbird

    I’m talking about the brain’s ability to process the signal from the eyes. Not the eyes themselves.

    Hunter gatherers tend to have better ability to process movement.

  148. @Passer by
    @Mr. Hack


    I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s.
     
    I'm not saying that. Politically the country will become more polarised and fractured. Politics may have an effect on economics. The US also has large and growing debts. The US military will be cut, it is already baked in in future budgets. The US dollar in general will be weakening in the long term both due to the debt issue and the decline in the share of the US in the global economy. The US will be a declining country (in relative decline), imo, up to 2100. I also think that China will be a declining country after 2050, so both of them will be declining.

    IMO the dollar will lose its dominant place, but slowly. There should be a basket of currencies, gold and crypto replacing the dollar, with the dollar still acounting for maybe 25% -30 % of globalreserves, but it will happen slowly imo. By 2050. Not by 2030. It is right now at 59 %. The CNY is estimated to reach 10 % in global reserves by 2030. The dollar will lose its place much faster in transactions, it is happening now, as countries are looking to avoid sanctions or surveillance. It is right now at 39 %.

    So i see a multipolar world in the making, not US dominated, but not China dominated either. Peak China power should be around 2050, i think it will take Taiwan by the 2040s, after that things should get really chaotic and interesting, with India reaching near US GDP at the end of the century, Africa reaching 3-4 trillion people, and muslims becoming nearly 35 % of the global population. A real multipolar world. I think that the curent system will collapse by 2050. It will be more non-white, more post european world. And it should be more dangerous too, probably the NPT regime will collapse, as more and more players emerge, and many countries will obtain nuclear weapons.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Xi-Jinping

    I’m not saying that.

    It looks to me like you’re backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture…I’m probably nitpicking here and do appreciate your fuller reply in #147.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Mr. Hack


    It looks to me like you’re backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture
     
    Well, that was a discussion about the effect of immigration on the US economics alone, but politics will also be affected, and this points to potential instability and division, and then if you look at long term economic studies about the US, they already point to long term relative decline of its place in the global economy, although slow. And they are not even aware of the immigration effects (or third-wordisation effects) on the US, which adds a further downside for it, especially in the long term. Although it is not a big downside (probably 15-16 % potential loss in GDP by 2100), but its there, and it adds up.

    So it looks that the US relative decline for this century is baked in, but also that the US is a very resourceful country, and well connected country, with very good starting position, so it should be a slow decline. But there is political risk that is hard to predict. When there is polarisation, something small can cause big trouble. See the George Floyd saga. Or a war and use of force to try to show that the US is not in decline

    These three effects that intersect each other at the same time - whites becoming a minority in the country, debt reaching all time high, with the US gradually losing influence in the world, and everybody knowing about that, point that something may happen. Either internally or externally. The tension is there, it is just looking for a spark.
  149. @sudden death
    @AnonfromTN


    The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.
     
    ???...

    Quite cringey response above, as those UK'ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    those UK’ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.

    Most “vaccinated” people in the UK had Pfizer.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @AnonfromTN

    Most over '70s had Pfizer. So have most under 40s. It is about even. It would depend when the military were vaccinated.

  150. @Shortsword
    @Mr. Hack

    Big Floyd is a national hero.

    https://media.nbcnewyork.com/2021/06/george-floyd-statue-newark.jpg

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AnonfromTN

    Big Floyd is a national hero.

    Tell me who is your national hero, and I tell you what kind of nation you are.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @AnonfromTN

    Well put.

    Watching this whole surreal saga unfold is probably what whites who were in the know in the 1950s felt like when the Rosa Parks myth was being foisted on them. The difference is that was a complete put-up job, whereas the initial incident that sparked the Floyd mania occurred naturally. In both cases though, the entire media apparatus was psychologically and ideologically well prepared to spring into action.

    Replies: @Pericles

  151. Edward Dutton made a video criticizing the idea of the technological singularity, and why he thinks it won’t happen.

  152. @Mr. Hack
    @Passer by


    I’m not saying that.
     
    It looks to me like you're backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture...I'm probably nitpicking here and do appreciate your fuller reply in #147.

    Replies: @Passer by

    It looks to me like you’re backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture

    Well, that was a discussion about the effect of immigration on the US economics alone, but politics will also be affected, and this points to potential instability and division, and then if you look at long term economic studies about the US, they already point to long term relative decline of its place in the global economy, although slow. And they are not even aware of the immigration effects (or third-wordisation effects) on the US, which adds a further downside for it, especially in the long term. Although it is not a big downside (probably 15-16 % potential loss in GDP by 2100), but its there, and it adds up.

    So it looks that the US relative decline for this century is baked in, but also that the US is a very resourceful country, and well connected country, with very good starting position, so it should be a slow decline. But there is political risk that is hard to predict. When there is polarisation, something small can cause big trouble. See the George Floyd saga. Or a war and use of force to try to show that the US is not in decline

    These three effects that intersect each other at the same time – whites becoming a minority in the country, debt reaching all time high, with the US gradually losing influence in the world, and everybody knowing about that, point that something may happen. Either internally or externally. The tension is there, it is just looking for a spark.

  153. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa



    Where’s their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make ‘yellow genocide”?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an “open” discussion on
     
    lol, there was actually a couple at one point which said that "Chinese people should have died, Japanese should have won WW2" and that was actually in official academia, not just zihui.

    There was also the pretty entertainingly insane Auntology, which was a bit like the "yellow genocide" but its more like "keep everyone as a slave caste member."

    https://supchina.com/2019/03/13/chinas-intellectual-dark-web-and-its-most-active-fanatic/

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    That’s still nothing on Unz, it is Chinese Brett Weinstein, and those sites are either censored or they’re hosted abroad and the authorities try to ban them, from what I’ve looked up. I also notice that the one you provided before, as evidence of some dissent being allowed, is, from what I actually read, no more dissenting than the White House PR office.

    I am sure that China has many weird, mad and wonderful ideological currents, but it feels like you’re telling me it is the middle of day outside, because it is not completely pitch black.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I also see that "Auntie" is now a political refugee in the United States.

    He is pretty astute on the West however, and funny.

    Google translate did a good job for me:

    https://freewechat.com/a/MzI4MjA3MTg2OA==/2652507882/1?rss

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The more extreme zihui comments I recall were in the comments, including arguments that the Party was keeping everyone as leeks and therefore basically failing in their mission, etc. Its not that rare.

    Auntology is quite a bit more extreme than Weinstein or any "Dark Web" intellectual despite the name of the article: it advocates the breakup of the nation, which would fall into extremism in the US as well, which now is being actively sought for to suppressing, including even less far-out movements.

    https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states

    In fact, I'm not even sure Unz could safely host such discussion at the moment to be honest.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  154. Pretty shocking to see a pre-code Capra film. Guessing even as director, he felt powerless to censor the writer.

    Seems to support my view that censorship is necessary.

  155. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    That's still nothing on Unz, it is Chinese Brett Weinstein, and those sites are either censored or they're hosted abroad and the authorities try to ban them, from what I've looked up. I also notice that the one you provided before, as evidence of some dissent being allowed, is, from what I actually read, no more dissenting than the White House PR office.

    I am sure that China has many weird, mad and wonderful ideological currents, but it feels like you're telling me it is the middle of day outside, because it is not completely pitch black.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

    I also see that “Auntie” is now a political refugee in the United States.

    He is pretty astute on the West however, and funny.

    Google translate did a good job for me:

    https://freewechat.com/a/MzI4MjA3MTg2OA==/2652507882/1?rss

  156. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The former might be correct (though the Great Awokening might be reversing things even as we speak - all these 666 gender memes affect the "educated" to a greater extent than the proles), but I think the latter is a tall order, whatever one's thoughts on America's trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Boomthorkell

    Hopefully that will give North America some peace, and even the greatest “swallow the peoples of the world”-types will struggle to keep up their desired level of immigrant inflows.

    Then the self-improvement can begin, ha ha.

  157. @Anzelo
    Ok, someone please translate this article to english. I cant understand any of this. You drunk? What is the point of this? I only drank one beer, it is not possible i forgot english language completely. Maybe you are a retard, having fun there to write complete nonsense on purpose, to make us think we forgot how to read?

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    Those who know, know.

  158. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Let's try to use actual numbers.

    In 2050, China's population might be 1.38 billion (down from 1.41 billion today). I'm adjusting a UN population estimate based on the results released from the 2020 Census to get this figure. In 2050, the US population will be 390 million based on the projection of the US Census. China's population will still be about 3.5 times larger in 2050. So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger. I agree with you that 300% is far-fetched but 150% seems low to me.

    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian). Can you imagine the GDP per capita of the US is $65,000 this year if the country had the projected demographics of 2050? It would be lower than $65,000 and China would catch up faster.

    Are there any assumptions you don't agree with in the calculation? What's the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by, @Boomthorkell

    Kind of a good joke, right?

    People act like going from 1.4 billion to…even 800 million (not that that is going to happen) over the course of a century is some crazy catastrophe. Even Japan going from 120 million to 80 million (again, not going to happen, bar a nuclear war over Taiwan), is not a disaster. Still bigger than Ireland, in both cases, and either 10 Germanies or 1 Germany, respectively.

    America’s population going over 400,000,000 would have been impressive in an era when they would have been more white. Now it’s just sad. Though, Hispanics are pretty okay, so we can artificially hit over 400 mil by integrating Mexico, which would probably also improve our immigration laws as Mexicans vote en masse to bar any foreigners from settling their country, including Central Americans. Lol.

  159. @AnonfromTN
    @sudden death


    those UK’ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.
     
    Most “vaccinated” people in the UK had Pfizer.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Most over ’70s had Pfizer. So have most under 40s. It is about even. It would depend when the military were vaccinated.

  160. @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    Various companies and institutions all over the place use real growth rates after removing inflation.

    Get some future value calculator and you will see that you need 4,75 % average growth rates for the period of 2020 - 2050 for China to reach 1,75 times bigger MER GDP by 2050, which is something that everyone, including the chinese government, admits that it is impossible.

    Variables: China 70 % of US GDP 2020
    US 100 % 2020

    US Growth rate as per most financial institutions for the 2020 - 2050 period is 1,7 (1,9 - 1,6 - 1,5 as per CBO)
    China's growth rate for that period is 3,4 (5,1-2,9-2,2) (as per World Bank)

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

    Exchange rate - most estimate no more than 20 % currency appreciation of the CNY by that point. Some estimate no CNY appreciation at all. You are far from 1,75 times bigger China GDP at that point. The only way to get there is via massive 50 % CNY appreciation and i doubt that this will happen.


    US racial demographics
     
    If there was no positive white hispanic effect i doubt that the IQ of US migrants (second gen) will be just 4 points below that of the US population, as per PISA.

    Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita?
     
    Why not? The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues. If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa. The US gets some very innovative, high quality migrants, see Karlin's article on it. Yes, it gets lots of third worlders too, but these effects neutralise each other so the overall IQ drop due to immigration is not that large, as PISA shows.

    How much will per capita GDP drop? It will drop for certain, but looking at what i said above


    The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues
     
    it does not look that it will be a big drop. At least right now we are not seeing anything like this.

    Assuming average migrant IQ of 94 it will take a long time IMO before US IQ drops in any meaningful sense. It will be probably 96 by 2100, compared to 98 today. Maybe 10 % lower GDP per capita due to that.


    US overtaking China again
     
    Witn Chinese TFR dropping below the quite low of 1,3 of today, - with ongoing urbanisation in China, which will further reduce TFR, it is a possible scenario. But for that to happen, China will also have to reject immigration (which is possible) while the US will also have to prefer Asian immigration (things are going in that direction).

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Xi-Jinping

    is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues.

    The only reason the US is “innovative per capita” than most countries is due to immigration. It does a poor job at raising local talent. As the rest of the world improves amd catches up (and Europe declines), I predict fewer people will emigrate from their countries (a reverse brain drain may even occur) and “US innovation” will greatly slow down. We are already seeing this in China, where many large Chinese tech companies are ex-Silicon Valley employees coming back to China to make their fortunes (ex Anker CEO). Currently China is undergoing a reform of its university system, I predict this will raise its Universities to a US standard (at minimum) so there will also be less motivation to go abroad, as the gov opens up more high quality universities throughout China.

  161. @dfordoom
    @Daniel Chieh


    Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.
     
    It's not surprising at all really. Not to me anyway. I've always believed that complete freedom is disastrous for creativity.

    The idea that freedom is good for creativity is a hippie-dippie idea.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    Soviet music did improve when Stalin set actual (read: traditional) music standards.

    Obviously, there is some balance that is needed. I bet the ideal varies for the individual and the culture.

  162. @Passer by
    @Mr. Hack


    I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s.
     
    I'm not saying that. Politically the country will become more polarised and fractured. Politics may have an effect on economics. The US also has large and growing debts. The US military will be cut, it is already baked in in future budgets. The US dollar in general will be weakening in the long term both due to the debt issue and the decline in the share of the US in the global economy. The US will be a declining country (in relative decline), imo, up to 2100. I also think that China will be a declining country after 2050, so both of them will be declining.

    IMO the dollar will lose its dominant place, but slowly. There should be a basket of currencies, gold and crypto replacing the dollar, with the dollar still acounting for maybe 25% -30 % of globalreserves, but it will happen slowly imo. By 2050. Not by 2030. It is right now at 59 %. The CNY is estimated to reach 10 % in global reserves by 2030. The dollar will lose its place much faster in transactions, it is happening now, as countries are looking to avoid sanctions or surveillance. It is right now at 39 %.

    So i see a multipolar world in the making, not US dominated, but not China dominated either. Peak China power should be around 2050, i think it will take Taiwan by the 2040s, after that things should get really chaotic and interesting, with India reaching near US GDP at the end of the century, Africa reaching 3-4 trillion people, and muslims becoming nearly 35 % of the global population. A real multipolar world. I think that the curent system will collapse by 2050. It will be more non-white, more post european world. And it should be more dangerous too, probably the NPT regime will collapse, as more and more players emerge, and many countries will obtain nuclear weapons.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Xi-Jinping

    You are making one crucial assumption that needs to be examined – that the US will remain intact as it is now. The uncentralized nature (ie each State is semi-autonomous) of the USA where each “State” is essentially its own country with a unified currency and protected by a central government, means that if the US economy declines, stops being first,’ its productivity falls, has too many people of a certain ethnicity (say Latinos) concentrated in one place – it can so happen that States begin to remember historical grievances or suddenly “discover” a new identity (like Ukraine or the provinces of the Roman Empire) that is suddenly at odds with the rest of the US and may attempt secession – especially if the power of the Feds weaken, some governors may figure it will be better for them if they where the President of their own country.

    This often happens to States/Empires that begin an (even modest) economic decline. This happened to Rome, Britain and USSR. It doesnt usually happen to relatively homogenous states, but the US is not homogenous and will become less so over time. Moreover the semi-autonomous nature of its State system seems like it would lend itself well to splintering. A splintering will ruin any projections of econokic growth.

    So do you think its likely the US will remain intact in its current State or splinter based on ethnic, economic or Racial lines?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Xi-Jinping

    This is one of my deeper assumptions on my US estimates. Federal power and massive economies of scale + internal supply chains will have to go, but we might still see a common market and currency (the Dollar), if those aren't points of political contention (I'll say local markets and competing currencies are more likely given the political divide and conflicting ideologies)

    You can just look at Central Asia or Baltics for what will be happening (Independence wiped out Latvia's locomotive industry)

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    , @Passer by
    @Xi-Jinping

    I think that there is political risk for the US and i mentioned that in the comments. I don't know if it will happen. Sometimes it all looks calm, until someone gets killed, or some attrocity happens, and then all hell breaks loose. This is how internal conflicts often start.

  163. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks
     
    Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

    Where's their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make 'yellow genocide"?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an "open" discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas - as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

    This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.
     
    I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

    Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can
     
    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly "impossible" for women. Or even negative at all.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Xi-Jinping, @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    You should read Weibo, people constantly complain about stuff and protests are encouraged in China and the government seems to be far more responsive.

    Check out the below article for more on the matter:

    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/02/surprise-authoritarian-resilience-china/

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
  164. @Svevlad
    @Felix Keverich

    Not in Africa.

    See, the problem everyone and their dog among the HBD rightoids ignore is the fact that for practically anyone, even stepping on African soil prior to the late 19th century was basically an instant death from a thousand diseases. The natives weren't really much better off either.

    Evolution of high intelligence and civilization-supporting "hardware" requires resource competition. Africa has a lot of resources, even if classic field agriculture isn't suited to savannas (see: Cerrado being cultivated only after the 70s). But I digress - Africa has a lot of resources, which means to get competition for those, you need a high population...

    Enter the 20 bazillion diseases they have. The entire continent becomes a shredder and puts a stop to any evolution that isn't disease resistance related.

    There, mystery solved. No "they didn't have to work to survive" cope, no seethe, no retardation.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    Let us not forget the elephants! A war the interior Africans didn’t start winning until the introduction of guns wholesale to the Savannah. I’m not even kidding. Those guys will wreck a village of any moderate size. I like elephants, but a war is a war. Bees and thorn bushes help, though.

    In time, with the advantages of many modern breakthroughs (medicinal and otherwise) and ongoing Chinese infrastructure development and investment (different than Western financial investment), as well as political stabilization (much of Africa is, in fact, not a horrible, rape-filled warzone), they’ll figure themselves out and create the moderately prosperous societies. It won’t be Germany, China, Japan, Russia, Korea or Britain, but it will be a fairly okay place to be, and especially so if one is African (biologically and culturally).

    It takes time, though, and a outsiders not to interfere besides simple trade and infrastructure deals. Gadaffi was always working towards that goal. A damn shame it was, too. Europe and the world could have had a moderately stable and moderately prosperous Dark Continent, and instead they opted for “The Gayest and Darkest” Timeline.

  165. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks
     
    Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

    Where's their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make 'yellow genocide"?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an "open" discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas - as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

    This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.
     
    I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

    Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can
     
    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly "impossible" for women. Or even negative at all.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Xi-Jinping, @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    The great shame of Xbox, and Microsoft, as my father noted (working there), is that they absolutely, positively refuse to build factories in Japan and South America, despite the fact their these people actually game, can appreciate Xbox games, and more importantly, buy nationalist. Meaning, one must first produce there to sell there, but this ensures a chance at the market. Alas, Microsoft leadership is as short sighted as many American mega-corporations.

  166. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    That's still nothing on Unz, it is Chinese Brett Weinstein, and those sites are either censored or they're hosted abroad and the authorities try to ban them, from what I've looked up. I also notice that the one you provided before, as evidence of some dissent being allowed, is, from what I actually read, no more dissenting than the White House PR office.

    I am sure that China has many weird, mad and wonderful ideological currents, but it feels like you're telling me it is the middle of day outside, because it is not completely pitch black.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

    The more extreme zihui comments I recall were in the comments, including arguments that the Party was keeping everyone as leeks and therefore basically failing in their mission, etc. Its not that rare.

    Auntology is quite a bit more extreme than Weinstein or any “Dark Web” intellectual despite the name of the article: it advocates the breakup of the nation, which would fall into extremism in the US as well, which now is being actively sought for to suppressing, including even less far-out movements.

    https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states

    In fact, I’m not even sure Unz could safely host such discussion at the moment to be honest.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    He's in the US, along with this extremely moderate and loyal dissident.

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-12-04/chinese-communist-party-failed

  167. @Yellowface Anon
    @kzn

    It makes good sense for a Chinese-allied dictator in Sub-Sahara Africa to actually learn the Dengist example and impose one-child policy. This time, since everyone is black and allowing minorities to breed will mess up the social balance, there should be zero exceptions.

    Sad thing Blacks are too self-centered when they are in high places...

    Replies: @Morton's toes

    Dictators in Africa have a eight wives and forty children. How are they going to tell people to stop having bunches of kids?

  168. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks
     
    Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

    Where's their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

    Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

    Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make 'yellow genocide"?

    The most government critical thing I saw was an "open" discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas - as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

    This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

    Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.
     
    I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

    Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can
     
    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly "impossible" for women. Or even negative at all.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Xi-Jinping, @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly “impossible” for women. Or even negative at all.

    Numbers are deceptive, women are mostly in part-time labor.

    And the grade-editing is reasonably well known.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/08/tokyo-medical-school-admits-changing-results-to-exclude-women

    Given the same clique system I mentioned before and the importance of informal “shadowy” organizations, it serves as effective barriers while not actually appearing as such. Like I mentioned before, I actually think this is somehow rather admirable because it comes off as fairly smooth and nonconfrontational(though its innately hypocritical, much like how crime is effective zero, but mobsters like yazuka are legal, so their crime is intentionally overlooked).

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    I don't see evidence that the numbers are deceptive, and even if so, I don't see any problem with "part-time" work.

    Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  169. @mal
    And in the financial Wonderland, junk bond yields are now below inflation.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/the-junk-bond-market-is-on-fire-this-year-as-yields-hit-a-record-low.html

    Do you have an alcoholic uncle? Quick! Grab his bar bill and run over to Goldman Sachs where they will gladly securitize it for you and sell the resulting bond to a pension fund. You will get a nice commission in the process.

    And I'm not even kidding - this is inevitable. Everything that can be securitized, will be securitized. Money is irrelevant, debt is everything. The more debt you own, the more debt you want.

    Replies: @Morton's toes

    Those people that want student debt cancelled have absolutely no clue. That stuff is gold.

  170. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

     

    Well, no, I think you're underestimating the extremes here. Unless you're extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

    However, I do think one contrast from what you said that is while there's more conmformity in Japan(and yes, yes, there is, the economic miracle post war would be impossible without it), it is a an effort to build a pleasant conformity. Everything in society often seems to emphasize a role, so while for example, mothers are expected not to work, there's an entire status thing with fashion and "women who do lunch" which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can't make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that's basically fine because if they can't think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they're pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

    It is in many ways, pretty well designed. You don't impose crushing conformity, you kind of harmonize it into being. Its pretty crushing, but it feels organic. That's actually one of the great successes.


    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared.
     
    China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks...kinda like Twitter(lol), than anything else. Its people who try to create rival parties that face worse punishment, but its not like the US isn't already there with the declaration of people as "extremists" and "extremist organizations."

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Xi-Jinping

    women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce. The solution for China and Japan to reverse their poor fertility rates is to make it seem that having many children is a very pleasant and socially desirable thing for women. If combined with good social/financial planning, I predict demographic trends to reverse in a generation (with good enough propaganda and strict censorship).

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.
     
    When you one day meet a woman, you will be wrapped as tightly around her finger as a Chinese finger trap.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Xi-Jinping


    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.
     
    Replace women with people, and it's pretty accurate. The fish absorbs what's in the water, people absorb the information provided: men and women both.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  171. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The more extreme zihui comments I recall were in the comments, including arguments that the Party was keeping everyone as leeks and therefore basically failing in their mission, etc. Its not that rare.

    Auntology is quite a bit more extreme than Weinstein or any "Dark Web" intellectual despite the name of the article: it advocates the breakup of the nation, which would fall into extremism in the US as well, which now is being actively sought for to suppressing, including even less far-out movements.

    https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states

    In fact, I'm not even sure Unz could safely host such discussion at the moment to be honest.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    He’s in the US, along with this extremely moderate and loyal dissident.

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-12-04/chinese-communist-party-failed

  172. @Passer by
    @Yellowface Anon

    Personally i don't believe in great reset theories about wiping out 1/3 of the US population. Which can only happen via nuclear war, an ultra deadly disease, or banning child birth and immigration.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    First three you’ve mentioned, plus famine-tier supply chain collapses (in the “same” way Holodomor & Great Leap Forward happened) and possibly industrial genocide.

  173. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly “impossible” for women. Or even negative at all.

     

    Numbers are deceptive, women are mostly in part-time labor.

    https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/17262.jpeg

    And the grade-editing is reasonably well known.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/08/tokyo-medical-school-admits-changing-results-to-exclude-women

    Given the same clique system I mentioned before and the importance of informal "shadowy" organizations, it serves as effective barriers while not actually appearing as such. Like I mentioned before, I actually think this is somehow rather admirable because it comes off as fairly smooth and nonconfrontational(though its innately hypocritical, much like how crime is effective zero, but mobsters like yazuka are legal, so their crime is intentionally overlooked).

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I don’t see evidence that the numbers are deceptive, and even if so, I don’t see any problem with “part-time” work.

    Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

     

    Nah.

    I don't think that systems of informal networks, basically variants of "old boy clubs" favor women. Long and short, women don't seem to organize semi-secret cliques all that effectively.

    I suppose that's one perhaps positive result of it, even though it causes tons of other problems: tons of wasted efforts in stupid rivalries, lack of entrepreneurship due to financialization also using the friends and family system, and generally a lack of promotion of skill since it immediately favors seniority.

    Its funny - though probably not true - that it is arguably a reason for continuing Japanese malaise, as under Abenomics, Japanese banks provided tons of stimuli and tax cuts for their personal friends in the largest companies, which of course, just immediately saved it or paid it out in dividends rather than invest it. In the end, little of the stimulus ever turned into additional economic activity.

    It certainly was a hilarious amount of wasted money.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  174. @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    Yeah, China seems to have managed to adopted an unique storytelling style so far(the weird mixture of gnosticism, buddhism and quantum universes is pretty amusing), but not really an unique artstyle. But I think there's cause for hope.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Artstyle? There is basically not much room for innovation outside of those that can be also shared by Japanese artists. But the narrative and worldviews are gold.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    Well, I don't see "sharing" as being an issue, but yes, there's always a lot of potential for style. In anime, for example, the Yoshinori Kanada style became very prolific, but was then succeeded by Hiroyuki Imaishi with Gainax, which also had contribution in the commonality of the amusingly named Gainaxing trope :P

    https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Gainaxing


    The technique of drawing a female character with unusually large and buoyant breasts and without a bra, then animating every individual jiggle, sway, bounce and bobble they undergo. Also known as Gainax Bounce or the Gainax Bounce Effect.

    The motion so displayed is typically asynchronous — each breast is animated separately and possesses its own individual movement.
     
    But yes, even now, you can clearly see a difference between say Kyoani's and UFOtable's work, etc; its possible that Chinese animators will eventually have a more distinctive style as well. Right now it seems to just be a shared obsession with a major female character with white hair :P

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  175. mal says:

    People trying to estimate US GDP growth rate to 2050 are missing the point.

    US GDP is going to skyrocket, but innovation, technology, immigration, or even my favorite pet interest – debt, are not really going going to be the key drivers. Those things won’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

    By 2050, obesity rate in the US will be well over 50%, maybe pushing 60%, and this, combined with aging population, will create a rather interesting cascade of health problems and massive cash cow for the healthcare sector.

    If you think US healthcare, at 18% GDP and $4 trillion annually today, is expensive, you ain’t seen nothing yet. My base case for 2050 is 25% GDP, but I wouldn’t rule out 30-35% GDP in healthcare expenditures. The more people get sick with chronic illnesses, the higher the GDP will go. And there will be many such cases.

    By 2050 US economy will be fully powered by oil. No, not shale oil. Land whale oil.

  176. @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh


    women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.
     
    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce. The solution for China and Japan to reverse their poor fertility rates is to make it seem that having many children is a very pleasant and socially desirable thing for women. If combined with good social/financial planning, I predict demographic trends to reverse in a generation (with good enough propaganda and strict censorship).

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.

    When you one day meet a woman, you will be wrapped as tightly around her finger as a Chinese finger trap.

    • LOL: Xi-Jinping
    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I've had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I'm tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week.

    Point is not to brag about my sexploits - point is to say women are easily manipulated if you are the right guy. You can turn a Jewish girl into a rabid Nazi. You can also brainwash a feminist into becoming a housewife (whether she'll be a good one is another question). Women will adopt the views (and lifestyle and hobbies) of a guy theyre with (if they like him alot).

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status - society (and men) can use that to their advantage. They are also incredibly emotional

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  177. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.
     
    When you one day meet a woman, you will be wrapped as tightly around her finger as a Chinese finger trap.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    I’ve had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I’m tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week.

    Point is not to brag about my sexploits – point is to say women are easily manipulated if you are the right guy. You can turn a Jewish girl into a rabid Nazi. You can also brainwash a feminist into becoming a housewife (whether she’ll be a good one is another question). Women will adopt the views (and lifestyle and hobbies) of a guy theyre with (if they like him alot).

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status – society (and men) can use that to their advantage. They are also incredibly emotional

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    I’ve had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I’m tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week....Point is not to brag about my sexploits
     
    That is the only discernable point.

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status – society (and men) can use that to their advantage
     
    You're hoping to use your story above to get more "social status" on this board, so I don't imagine that you'd be difficult to manipulate in exactly the way you think women are. This is interesting. It is also why I said that you would end up wound around some girl's finger, completely oblivious.

    Further evidence is that you think that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something. If you are tall and good looking, then you aren't tricking them at all. Women enjoy sex and like tall and good looking men. They're just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, which I believe is ordinary in East Asia; you Machiavellian manipulator, you.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @AaronB

  178. @Xi-Jinping
    @Passer by

    You are making one crucial assumption that needs to be examined - that the US will remain intact as it is now. The uncentralized nature (ie each State is semi-autonomous) of the USA where each "State" is essentially its own country with a unified currency and protected by a central government, means that if the US economy declines, stops being first,' its productivity falls, has too many people of a certain ethnicity (say Latinos) concentrated in one place - it can so happen that States begin to remember historical grievances or suddenly "discover" a new identity (like Ukraine or the provinces of the Roman Empire) that is suddenly at odds with the rest of the US and may attempt secession - especially if the power of the Feds weaken, some governors may figure it will be better for them if they where the President of their own country.

    This often happens to States/Empires that begin an (even modest) economic decline. This happened to Rome, Britain and USSR. It doesnt usually happen to relatively homogenous states, but the US is not homogenous and will become less so over time. Moreover the semi-autonomous nature of its State system seems like it would lend itself well to splintering. A splintering will ruin any projections of econokic growth.

    So do you think its likely the US will remain intact in its current State or splinter based on ethnic, economic or Racial lines?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by

    This is one of my deeper assumptions on my US estimates. Federal power and massive economies of scale + internal supply chains will have to go, but we might still see a common market and currency (the Dollar), if those aren’t points of political contention (I’ll say local markets and competing currencies are more likely given the political divide and conflicting ideologies)

    You can just look at Central Asia or Baltics for what will be happening (Independence wiped out Latvia’s locomotive industry)

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon

    I agree that federal power will go. Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.

    I think that although the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to "legitimize" the rule of their new government. Also, a "specialization" and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.

    But this is getting deeply into theory land - i may be wrong about my thesis and US central power is stronger than i thought - but it seems like the "State" system along with the social tensions in the US is a ripe combination for splintering (I know i'd want to be my own boss if i was the governor of a State and the opportunity to secede aros, i'd take it).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

  179. @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh


    women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.
     
    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce. The solution for China and Japan to reverse their poor fertility rates is to make it seem that having many children is a very pleasant and socially desirable thing for women. If combined with good social/financial planning, I predict demographic trends to reverse in a generation (with good enough propaganda and strict censorship).

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.

    Replace women with people, and it’s pretty accurate. The fish absorbs what’s in the water, people absorb the information provided: men and women both.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh

    I agree in general - however men seem to be more susceptible to xenophobic/status quo/militiristic propaganda. Women are more susceptible to social propaganda (social media, movies, etc). Anecdotally, men have no opposition to large families, its mostly the women who dont want them bc they seem to think that a career is glamorous and desirable and pleasant (never mind to womens happiness levels being lowest in history) - this view seems to come from the media that actively pushes women into the workforce and shows motherhood as something "oppressive" and "undesirable". Given womens inherent emotionality, desire for social status and social conformity, and predeliction for following trends - a strong propaganda campaign targeted at adolescent and teen girls showing them how desirable a large family is and how miserable career women are will see a large efflux of women from the workforce.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  180. @Yellowface Anon
    @Xi-Jinping

    This is one of my deeper assumptions on my US estimates. Federal power and massive economies of scale + internal supply chains will have to go, but we might still see a common market and currency (the Dollar), if those aren't points of political contention (I'll say local markets and competing currencies are more likely given the political divide and conflicting ideologies)

    You can just look at Central Asia or Baltics for what will be happening (Independence wiped out Latvia's locomotive industry)

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    I agree that federal power will go. Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.

    I think that although the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to “legitimize” the rule of their new government. Also, a “specialization” and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.

    But this is getting deeply into theory land – i may be wrong about my thesis and US central power is stronger than i thought – but it seems like the “State” system along with the social tensions in the US is a ripe combination for splintering (I know i’d want to be my own boss if i was the governor of a State and the opportunity to secede aros, i’d take it).

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Xi-Jinping


    Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.
     
    Collapse, nationalizations or break-ups are quite possible to me (especially those strongly associated with Federal power e.g. Big Media, Social Media, Big Pharma).

    the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to “legitimize” the rule of their new government.
     
    If libertarian ideology is strong in some parts gold and crypto will predominate.

    Also, a “specialization” and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.
     
    Also possible that interior "Red" states will intentionally block food sales to "Blue" states for ideological revenge (partisan labels losing relevance notwithstanding)

    Let me quote the UN middle projections (that appear increasingly laughable each passing day) for the US, China, Japan, Germany and Mexico in 2100:
    US 434M
    China 1065M
    Japan 75M
    Germany 75M
    Mexico 142M
    It is indeed very catastrophic for Japan and Germany, especially if you consider that Japan will be a nation of downwardly mobile seniors and Turks in Germany could reach parity with Germans (I think Turks are Greek-tier but you still don't want Southern European efficiency in the industrial powerhouse of Europe)

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping

    The US elite have almost never been more united.

    Imagine having it so easy as rulers that you can convince yourself that January 6th was an insurgency, and use it as a partisan tool for intra-elite squabbling.

    The collapse of the USSR wasn't preceded by them theatrically failing over every minor turbulence, it was preceded by them having to pretend that there was no turbulence, because there was nothing they could do about it.

    History is weird and unpredictable, but, if it weren't for the fact that 1.4 billion people in China finally stopped starving themselves to death, the US would be the undisputed global hegemon for the next few centuries. It is very far from a state of collapse, which is incredibly rare, even if there will be inevitable tough times, as there always are in human travails.

  181. @Daniel Chieh
    @Xi-Jinping


    This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.
     
    Replace women with people, and it's pretty accurate. The fish absorbs what's in the water, people absorb the information provided: men and women both.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    I agree in general – however men seem to be more susceptible to xenophobic/status quo/militiristic propaganda. Women are more susceptible to social propaganda (social media, movies, etc). Anecdotally, men have no opposition to large families, its mostly the women who dont want them bc they seem to think that a career is glamorous and desirable and pleasant (never mind to womens happiness levels being lowest in history) – this view seems to come from the media that actively pushes women into the workforce and shows motherhood as something “oppressive” and “undesirable”. Given womens inherent emotionality, desire for social status and social conformity, and predeliction for following trends – a strong propaganda campaign targeted at adolescent and teen girls showing them how desirable a large family is and how miserable career women are will see a large efflux of women from the workforce.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Xi-Jinping

    The reason why governments encourage women in the workforce is that they would like more GDP per capita; this was explicitly the reasoning behind Abenomics. The corporate encouragement of female employment and the two-income trap has been documented elsewhere, its relatively solid.

    I don't think men particularly favor large families either though; in general, urban environments don't since children are costs rather than potential employees. Its also possible that there's just some sort of mental effect against crowding.

    I personally think that pro-natalism policies should resemble Hungary's, which seem to encourage women already with children to have more children. That's particularly useful in East Asia, where many women have one child - but then stop at one. Encouraging increased fertility from those who have more, and thus already have sunk costs into children, is likely an effective trend.

    Probably if you create enough mothers like that, they'll basically form their own political bloc. Housewives can have a surprising amount of free time for politics once the children are older, or if they have older children taking care of younger ones.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  182. @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I've had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I'm tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week.

    Point is not to brag about my sexploits - point is to say women are easily manipulated if you are the right guy. You can turn a Jewish girl into a rabid Nazi. You can also brainwash a feminist into becoming a housewife (whether she'll be a good one is another question). Women will adopt the views (and lifestyle and hobbies) of a guy theyre with (if they like him alot).

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status - society (and men) can use that to their advantage. They are also incredibly emotional

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I’ve had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I’m tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week….Point is not to brag about my sexploits

    That is the only discernable point.

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status – society (and men) can use that to their advantage

    You’re hoping to use your story above to get more “social status” on this board, so I don’t imagine that you’d be difficult to manipulate in exactly the way you think women are. This is interesting. It is also why I said that you would end up wound around some girl’s finger, completely oblivious.

    Further evidence is that you think that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something. If you are tall and good looking, then you aren’t tricking them at all. Women enjoy sex and like tall and good looking men. They’re just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, which I believe is ordinary in East Asia; you Machiavellian manipulator, you.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you think im using "my story" to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women? If you presume to make judgements about them, im sure you arent afraid of such a challenge?


    that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something
     
    Sure women like sex with good looking men. I wasnt always good looking (looks is often a function of how you dress/your physique and less so about face, imo). Still had no problems then.

    They’re just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, 
     
    Further proof you dont meet many women - if you need a "credit card" or money to get laid - then you're a beta! In fact, if you want good relationships with women never pay for them and get them gifts. Ever. And never let them use your credit card. Spend money freely on yourself not on them.

    If you need money to get a woman, you're doing it wrong. I've had women pay for expensive hotels while i was a broke student living on a matress with my mom.

    Replies: @JL, @Triteleia Laxa

    , @AaronB
    @Triteleia Laxa

    He'll be manipulated, but he'll have no clue that's what's happening. He'll insist it's entirely his own desire to maximize his status and impress his girlfriend etc etc :)

    That's always how it is with macho guys. They're completely trapped by their self image and need to impress others, but cannot see this as being the victim of manipulation.

    In reality, though, as human beings we are interdependent on others and our environment. This dream of being able to stand "outside" this matrix and brainwash and manipulate others is a complete fantasy. Anything you try to manipulate you will necessarily end up being manipulated by.

    Take mating rituals - the man tries to "manipulate" the woman by impressing her with his "fitness". But by so doing, he is acceding to her ideas of what fitness is. She expects - he conforms. Who is manipulating who?

    Maybe manipulating is the wrong frame. Interdependence is more accurate. And it's not just other humans - the total environment, forces completely out of our control, play a role.

    This idea of the "outside observer", standing aloof from everything and controlling it, was an artifact of Newtonian science, and has been decisively disproven by Quantum Mechanics. Our thinking just has not caught up yet.

    Although, philosophically, it has been disproven many times across the world.

    One feels that new advances in science are being held back from out unwillingnesd to truly move past the simplicity of Newton.

    Replies: @AaronB

  183. @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon

    I agree that federal power will go. Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.

    I think that although the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to "legitimize" the rule of their new government. Also, a "specialization" and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.

    But this is getting deeply into theory land - i may be wrong about my thesis and US central power is stronger than i thought - but it seems like the "State" system along with the social tensions in the US is a ripe combination for splintering (I know i'd want to be my own boss if i was the governor of a State and the opportunity to secede aros, i'd take it).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.

    Collapse, nationalizations or break-ups are quite possible to me (especially those strongly associated with Federal power e.g. Big Media, Social Media, Big Pharma).

    the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to “legitimize” the rule of their new government.

    If libertarian ideology is strong in some parts gold and crypto will predominate.

    Also, a “specialization” and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.

    Also possible that interior “Red” states will intentionally block food sales to “Blue” states for ideological revenge (partisan labels losing relevance notwithstanding)

    [MORE]

    Let me quote the UN middle projections (that appear increasingly laughable each passing day) for the US, China, Japan, Germany and Mexico in 2100:
    US 434M
    China 1065M
    Japan 75M
    Germany 75M
    Mexico 142M
    It is indeed very catastrophic for Japan and Germany, especially if you consider that Japan will be a nation of downwardly mobile seniors and Turks in Germany could reach parity with Germans (I think Turks are Greek-tier but you still don’t want Southern European efficiency in the industrial powerhouse of Europe)

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon


    crypto
     
    Crypto is a meme that will not last long. Its entirely speculative and has no value. As a result it will eventually crash. Already China has banned Crypto, India will follow suit. More countries will ban crypto (probably all of EU) once they start releasing their own digital currency. Governments do not go long without regulating, unregulated markets. As more places will ban crypto, its initial value will rise as it becomes scarcer and then collapse entirely as there is not enough people "mining" or "using" it. At most bitcoin will remain in use for the dark web/criminal enterprises but I do not imagine it having long widespread use.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  184. @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    Artstyle? There is basically not much room for innovation outside of those that can be also shared by Japanese artists. But the narrative and worldviews are gold.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Well, I don’t see “sharing” as being an issue, but yes, there’s always a lot of potential for style. In anime, for example, the Yoshinori Kanada style became very prolific, but was then succeeded by Hiroyuki Imaishi with Gainax, which also had contribution in the commonality of the amusingly named Gainaxing trope 😛

    https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Gainaxing

    The technique of drawing a female character with unusually large and buoyant breasts and without a bra, then animating every individual jiggle, sway, bounce and bobble they undergo. Also known as Gainax Bounce or the Gainax Bounce Effect.

    The motion so displayed is typically asynchronous — each breast is animated separately and possesses its own individual movement.

    But yes, even now, you can clearly see a difference between say Kyoani’s and UFOtable’s work, etc; its possible that Chinese animators will eventually have a more distinctive style as well. Right now it seems to just be a shared obsession with a major female character with white hair 😛

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh


    a difference between say Kyoani’s and UFOtable’s work, etc; its possible that Chinese animators will eventually have a more distinctive style as well
     
    You're talking about animes which China still haven't been able to crack into the global (even Japanese) market (except as outsourcing). Chinese artists are much more specialized in standalone and game art, and in that regard it's currently much closer to the average Japanese style, tho still having enough original variations. The obessessoon with white hair is just a distinctive trait that's based on relatively generic designs

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  185. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    I’ve had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I’m tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week....Point is not to brag about my sexploits
     
    That is the only discernable point.

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status – society (and men) can use that to their advantage
     
    You're hoping to use your story above to get more "social status" on this board, so I don't imagine that you'd be difficult to manipulate in exactly the way you think women are. This is interesting. It is also why I said that you would end up wound around some girl's finger, completely oblivious.

    Further evidence is that you think that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something. If you are tall and good looking, then you aren't tricking them at all. Women enjoy sex and like tall and good looking men. They're just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, which I believe is ordinary in East Asia; you Machiavellian manipulator, you.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @AaronB

    If you think im using “my story” to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women? If you presume to make judgements about them, im sure you arent afraid of such a challenge?

    that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something

    Sure women like sex with good looking men. I wasnt always good looking (looks is often a function of how you dress/your physique and less so about face, imo). Still had no problems then.

    They’re just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, 

    Further proof you dont meet many women – if you need a “credit card” or money to get laid – then you’re a beta! In fact, if you want good relationships with women never pay for them and get them gifts. Ever. And never let them use your credit card. Spend money freely on yourself not on them.

    If you need money to get a woman, you’re doing it wrong. I’ve had women pay for expensive hotels while i was a broke student living on a matress with my mom.

    • Replies: @JL
    @Xi-Jinping


    why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women?
     
    Just a guess, but maybe because Triteleia Laxa isn't a lesbian and, therefore, has no female conquests to compare?
    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    If you think im using “my story” to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women?
     
    You go first!

    I also understand what "game" is, and the "theory" behind it. I strongly disagree with why it "works", while not disputing the basic efficacy of don't be pathetic, don't be disgusting and don't be boring.

    My main "interesting point" is that "game" posits that women are all about social status, unlike men, who like sex, because of biology.

    I find this hilarious, because, as per your post, men who talk about "game" a lot are obviously motivated by the way in which they perceive that sleeping with a lot of hot women will add to their own social status as a performatively masculine, sharp-eyed cynic.

    This, the inability to discern your own motivations from those of others, is a distinct psychological weakness. Such weaknesses make you very easy to manipulate; especially when paired with the delusion that you are manipulating others.

    Please try to calmly list what you think motivates women, and then attempt to recognise yourself in that list. It will be good for you.

    As for your triumphs with all of those hotties, I am happy for you, just try to remember, that from sex upwards through to lifetime partnership, it is about the journey, not the destination, as the destination is always death.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @Morton's toes

  186. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    I don't see evidence that the numbers are deceptive, and even if so, I don't see any problem with "part-time" work.

    Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

    Nah.

    I don’t think that systems of informal networks, basically variants of “old boy clubs” favor women. Long and short, women don’t seem to organize semi-secret cliques all that effectively.

    I suppose that’s one perhaps positive result of it, even though it causes tons of other problems: tons of wasted efforts in stupid rivalries, lack of entrepreneurship due to financialization also using the friends and family system, and generally a lack of promotion of skill since it immediately favors seniority.

    Its funny – though probably not true – that it is arguably a reason for continuing Japanese malaise, as under Abenomics, Japanese banks provided tons of stimuli and tax cuts for their personal friends in the largest companies, which of course, just immediately saved it or paid it out in dividends rather than invest it. In the end, little of the stimulus ever turned into additional economic activity.

    It certainly was a hilarious amount of wasted money.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Already 40% of doctors in Japan under 29 are women. This has moved from single figures in a lifetime. All of your imagined obstructions haven't done anything to stop the trend, which will continue, that is baked in. Japan is on the same path as the US, but just following 20 years behind. Reality has not conformed to your theories, so I suppose your theories are wrong.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Passer by

  187. @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh

    I agree in general - however men seem to be more susceptible to xenophobic/status quo/militiristic propaganda. Women are more susceptible to social propaganda (social media, movies, etc). Anecdotally, men have no opposition to large families, its mostly the women who dont want them bc they seem to think that a career is glamorous and desirable and pleasant (never mind to womens happiness levels being lowest in history) - this view seems to come from the media that actively pushes women into the workforce and shows motherhood as something "oppressive" and "undesirable". Given womens inherent emotionality, desire for social status and social conformity, and predeliction for following trends - a strong propaganda campaign targeted at adolescent and teen girls showing them how desirable a large family is and how miserable career women are will see a large efflux of women from the workforce.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    The reason why governments encourage women in the workforce is that they would like more GDP per capita; this was explicitly the reasoning behind Abenomics. The corporate encouragement of female employment and the two-income trap has been documented elsewhere, its relatively solid.

    I don’t think men particularly favor large families either though; in general, urban environments don’t since children are costs rather than potential employees. Its also possible that there’s just some sort of mental effect against crowding.

    I personally think that pro-natalism policies should resemble Hungary’s, which seem to encourage women already with children to have more children. That’s particularly useful in East Asia, where many women have one child – but then stop at one. Encouraging increased fertility from those who have more, and thus already have sunk costs into children, is likely an effective trend.

    Probably if you create enough mothers like that, they’ll basically form their own political bloc. Housewives can have a surprising amount of free time for politics once the children are older, or if they have older children taking care of younger ones.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh


    The reason why governments encourage women in the workforce is that they would like more GDP per capita; this was explicitly the reasoning behind Abenomics.
     
    I agree. Once a certain lvele of prosperity is reached (and in especially dire straits like Korea or Japan), the emphasis should shift away from GDP/capita and towards fertility. I wonder if we will see this.

    The corporate encouragement of female employment
     
    It seems the entire feminist movement that is seen in the West is derived from corporations trying to brainwash women into entering the workforce to increase the labor pool while decreasing wages.

    I don’t think men particularly favor large families either though
     
    Most Men are more romantic (ironically) than women and are essentially open to doing whatever the woman wants. However on social media (especially om the right), it seems that "Trad lifestyles" with large families are being propagandized for men. This is bound to subconciously influence mens preferences.

    In general, urban environments don’t since children are costs rather than potential employees.
     
    I dont think people think this far ahead. Rather they see glamorous lifestyles on TV and want to continue having "fun" (usually "fun" is also whatever they see online/on tv)

    Its also possible that there’s just some sort of mental effect against crowding.
     
    I dont think such a mechanism exists. Though I may be mistaken.

    I personally think that pro-natalism policies should resemble Hungary’s, which seem to encourage women already with children to have more children. That’s particularly useful in East Asia, where many women have one child – but then stop at one. Encouraging increased fertility from those who have more, and thus already have sunk costs into children, is likely an effective trend.

    Probably if you create enough mothers like that, they’ll basically form their own political bloc. Housewives can have a surprising amount of free time for politics once the children are older, or if they have older children taking care of younger ones.

     

    Interesting idea. And how has this worked for Hungary thus far?

    Also, the question arises is how do you "encourage" women to have more children? The only way I see is to flood them with propaganda. Good propaganda is strong enough to bypass peoples natural aversion/dusgust to gays or transvestites, i'm sure it will work particularly strong on things that are biological imperatives like child raising.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  188. @Yellowface Anon
    @Xi-Jinping


    Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.
     
    Collapse, nationalizations or break-ups are quite possible to me (especially those strongly associated with Federal power e.g. Big Media, Social Media, Big Pharma).

    the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to “legitimize” the rule of their new government.
     
    If libertarian ideology is strong in some parts gold and crypto will predominate.

    Also, a “specialization” and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.
     
    Also possible that interior "Red" states will intentionally block food sales to "Blue" states for ideological revenge (partisan labels losing relevance notwithstanding)

    Let me quote the UN middle projections (that appear increasingly laughable each passing day) for the US, China, Japan, Germany and Mexico in 2100:
    US 434M
    China 1065M
    Japan 75M
    Germany 75M
    Mexico 142M
    It is indeed very catastrophic for Japan and Germany, especially if you consider that Japan will be a nation of downwardly mobile seniors and Turks in Germany could reach parity with Germans (I think Turks are Greek-tier but you still don't want Southern European efficiency in the industrial powerhouse of Europe)

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    crypto

    Crypto is a meme that will not last long. Its entirely speculative and has no value. As a result it will eventually crash. Already China has banned Crypto, India will follow suit. More countries will ban crypto (probably all of EU) once they start releasing their own digital currency. Governments do not go long without regulating, unregulated markets. As more places will ban crypto, its initial value will rise as it becomes scarcer and then collapse entirely as there is not enough people “mining” or “using” it. At most bitcoin will remain in use for the dark web/criminal enterprises but I do not imagine it having long widespread use.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Xi-Jinping

    You're probably underestimating the value of having currencies of political independence and opposition to the coming institutions. Which is why rather than re-formalizing economic activities, informalization is the trend for local economic activities, amd crypto is one of the options.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  189. @Daniel Chieh
    @Xi-Jinping

    The reason why governments encourage women in the workforce is that they would like more GDP per capita; this was explicitly the reasoning behind Abenomics. The corporate encouragement of female employment and the two-income trap has been documented elsewhere, its relatively solid.

    I don't think men particularly favor large families either though; in general, urban environments don't since children are costs rather than potential employees. Its also possible that there's just some sort of mental effect against crowding.

    I personally think that pro-natalism policies should resemble Hungary's, which seem to encourage women already with children to have more children. That's particularly useful in East Asia, where many women have one child - but then stop at one. Encouraging increased fertility from those who have more, and thus already have sunk costs into children, is likely an effective trend.

    Probably if you create enough mothers like that, they'll basically form their own political bloc. Housewives can have a surprising amount of free time for politics once the children are older, or if they have older children taking care of younger ones.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    The reason why governments encourage women in the workforce is that they would like more GDP per capita; this was explicitly the reasoning behind Abenomics.

    I agree. Once a certain lvele of prosperity is reached (and in especially dire straits like Korea or Japan), the emphasis should shift away from GDP/capita and towards fertility. I wonder if we will see this.

    The corporate encouragement of female employment

    It seems the entire feminist movement that is seen in the West is derived from corporations trying to brainwash women into entering the workforce to increase the labor pool while decreasing wages.

    I don’t think men particularly favor large families either though

    Most Men are more romantic (ironically) than women and are essentially open to doing whatever the woman wants. However on social media (especially om the right), it seems that “Trad lifestyles” with large families are being propagandized for men. This is bound to subconciously influence mens preferences.

    In general, urban environments don’t since children are costs rather than potential employees.

    I dont think people think this far ahead. Rather they see glamorous lifestyles on TV and want to continue having “fun” (usually “fun” is also whatever they see online/on tv)

    Its also possible that there’s just some sort of mental effect against crowding.

    I dont think such a mechanism exists. Though I may be mistaken.

    I personally think that pro-natalism policies should resemble Hungary’s, which seem to encourage women already with children to have more children. That’s particularly useful in East Asia, where many women have one child – but then stop at one. Encouraging increased fertility from those who have more, and thus already have sunk costs into children, is likely an effective trend.

    Probably if you create enough mothers like that, they’ll basically form their own political bloc. Housewives can have a surprising amount of free time for politics once the children are older, or if they have older children taking care of younger ones.

    Interesting idea. And how has this worked for Hungary thus far?

    Also, the question arises is how do you “encourage” women to have more children? The only way I see is to flood them with propaganda. Good propaganda is strong enough to bypass peoples natural aversion/dusgust to gays or transvestites, i’m sure it will work particularly strong on things that are biological imperatives like child raising.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Xi-Jinping


    Interesting idea. And how has this worked for Hungary thus far?


     

    In Hungary, the fertility rate has risen from 1.23 to 1.48, so that's something.

    Also, the question arises is how do you “encourage” women to have more children?
     
    Money seems to work. Basically it pays couples money to have more children, or extends tax benefits that increase per child born. Basically, instead of trying to push its way, it lowers barriers for people who already want to have a number of children. Indirectly, it might also promote the "breeder" population as well.

    Such policies have been discussed in East Asia, I believe, but are opposed by women(usually with careers) who basically do not want other women to have more children; disguised partly in talk of their tax money going places they don't benefit from, etc or it encouraging the poor to breed, but there's clearly some sort of status thing going on there. Fortunately, at least for China, it is not a democracy and women have had a declining share of political power.

    Its always easier to guide a thirsty horse to the through than it is to force a horse to drink.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  190. @Mr. Hack
    A friend of mine sent me this poignant e-mail yesterday. I replied that the only image that I bow to is the one of our Savior. I'm sure that this message will resonate well with many who take part at this blogsite:

    First Hero of the WOKE and Cancel Culture:

    https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/06/19/USAT/9c74de91-e0a9-40f2-a837-72692334f74a-GTY_1233540984.jpg?width=660&height=441&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp

    So a statue of Teddy Roosevelt in front of the Museum of American Natural History in New York City comes down and a bust of George Floyd goes up in Brooklyn borough of New York City. Yes, makes perfect sense. I wonder if the bust has a plaque listing all his good deeds and his contributions to society ........
    — 3 armed robberies,
    — 2 violent home invasions,
    — 6 burglaries,
    — 3 car thefts,
    — Multiple illegal trespasses,
    — Cocaine and alcohol addiction,
    — Drug dealing (meth and fentanyl),
    — Beat 4 victims senseless,
    — 23 arrests,
    — holding a gun to a very pregnant belly of his robbery victim,
    — and lastly, passing a counterfeit $20 bill.

    George Floyd was a THUG, NOT a HERO!

    Where are the many statues of police to honor all the cops killed by criminals???

    Replies: @Shortsword, @Grahamsno(G64)

    He got buried in a GOLD COFFIN, omg speechless.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Grahamsno(G64)

    http://www.islamicity.org/global/images/photo/IC-Articles/goldencalf__1200x400.JPG

  191. @Grahamsno(G64)
    @Mr. Hack

    He got buried in a GOLD COFFIN, omg speechless.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVrtM6IPw4g

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  192. @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you think im using "my story" to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women? If you presume to make judgements about them, im sure you arent afraid of such a challenge?


    that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something
     
    Sure women like sex with good looking men. I wasnt always good looking (looks is often a function of how you dress/your physique and less so about face, imo). Still had no problems then.

    They’re just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, 
     
    Further proof you dont meet many women - if you need a "credit card" or money to get laid - then you're a beta! In fact, if you want good relationships with women never pay for them and get them gifts. Ever. And never let them use your credit card. Spend money freely on yourself not on them.

    If you need money to get a woman, you're doing it wrong. I've had women pay for expensive hotels while i was a broke student living on a matress with my mom.

    Replies: @JL, @Triteleia Laxa

    why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women?

    Just a guess, but maybe because Triteleia Laxa isn’t a lesbian and, therefore, has no female conquests to compare?

  193. @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    Well, I don't see "sharing" as being an issue, but yes, there's always a lot of potential for style. In anime, for example, the Yoshinori Kanada style became very prolific, but was then succeeded by Hiroyuki Imaishi with Gainax, which also had contribution in the commonality of the amusingly named Gainaxing trope :P

    https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Gainaxing


    The technique of drawing a female character with unusually large and buoyant breasts and without a bra, then animating every individual jiggle, sway, bounce and bobble they undergo. Also known as Gainax Bounce or the Gainax Bounce Effect.

    The motion so displayed is typically asynchronous — each breast is animated separately and possesses its own individual movement.
     
    But yes, even now, you can clearly see a difference between say Kyoani's and UFOtable's work, etc; its possible that Chinese animators will eventually have a more distinctive style as well. Right now it seems to just be a shared obsession with a major female character with white hair :P

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    a difference between say Kyoani’s and UFOtable’s work, etc; its possible that Chinese animators will eventually have a more distinctive style as well

    You’re talking about animes which China still haven’t been able to crack into the global (even Japanese) market (except as outsourcing). Chinese artists are much more specialized in standalone and game art, and in that regard it’s currently much closer to the average Japanese style, tho still having enough original variations. The obessessoon with white hair is just a distinctive trait that’s based on relatively generic designs

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    No, the Kiana-like designs are intentional homages: there's shared talent between Punishing Gray Raven and Honkai, etc.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  194. @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon


    crypto
     
    Crypto is a meme that will not last long. Its entirely speculative and has no value. As a result it will eventually crash. Already China has banned Crypto, India will follow suit. More countries will ban crypto (probably all of EU) once they start releasing their own digital currency. Governments do not go long without regulating, unregulated markets. As more places will ban crypto, its initial value will rise as it becomes scarcer and then collapse entirely as there is not enough people "mining" or "using" it. At most bitcoin will remain in use for the dark web/criminal enterprises but I do not imagine it having long widespread use.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    You’re probably underestimating the value of having currencies of political independence and opposition to the coming institutions. Which is why rather than re-formalizing economic activities, informalization is the trend for local economic activities, amd crypto is one of the options.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon

    I understand peoples desire for political independence but when was the last time governments left a popular thing unregulated? Or freely gave people political independence? I predict crypto.will be attacked by governments at every turn in the future

  195. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    They're not really buy recommendations - just things that I consider to be of note and worth looking into, but not necessarily something to buy. I'm not planning to acquire any of them right now FWIW, stocks in general seem overheated.

    Transferwise (Wise) is 3x lower than Revolut on both p/e and mc, though Revolut has twice as many clients. OTOH, Revolut is aiming to be a full-fledged financial services provider, providing insurance, loans, stocks, even cryptos, etc., while Wise seems more exclusively focused on its original core competence of international transfers and remittances. Fintech in general is exploding (Revolut was $5B last year, now it's $33B; Tinkoff quadrupled), but how long will this last? I'm wary of investing much into such an overheated space and in fact recently sold off the last of my Tinkoff stocks.

    EMH: $1B for 12 clinics, even quite high quality one, seems a bit on the high side. OTOH, some private hospital chains in China are worth $30-50B. But I don't know enough about this sector to be comfortable about investing.

    23andme might be the most speculative. Could 100x eventually, if Genetics Revolution pans out and it becomes something like the premier social graph for genomics. Or it could crab indefinitely. Customer growth has been terrible in the last couple of years, I suppose that most of the people who wanted to be tested, have banally already done so. Overall I'm agnostic on its prospects.

    But yes, Yandex is mostly a long-term hold for me as well.

    Replies: @Boswald Bollocksworth, @Pericles

    23andme in its current form doesn’t seem very useful or serious, e.g., the way SJW employees apparently had some fun by marking certain results as ‘<1% subsaharan african' just to troll the racists. However, being underwritten by a Google founder, I think the company is a way for jews to have their own private genomics firm without any need for their precious genes to leak to the goyim. Given the money behind it, 23andme can probably exist indefinitely.

    In general, as a customer you get your little report in exchange for your genetic information put in a freezer, digitized and logged. Who knows what happens with it afterwards. Overall, I don't find the trade off very enticing.

    On a more general note, I do however think genetic information will become increasingly used for various intrusive and routine official purposes. Excepting the good and great, naturally — we're not animals.

    (Sweden btw already has a sort of genetic register of everyone born in Sweden after 1975. This was motivated by detecting genetic disease — such a worthy purpose — but was in 2003 used to identify the murderer of politician Anna Lindh, I believe by matching blood spatter. He turned out to be the stabby son of an immigrant Serbian couple.)

  196. @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.
     
    Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 - 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping's target for 2020 - 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

    The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 - 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

    For 2030 - 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 - 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

    For 2040 - 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

    At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.


    In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).
     
    If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

    https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/pisa-scores-migrants.jpg


    What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?
     
    I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

    Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

    In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching "only" 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Yellowface Anon, @Shortsword, @Pericles

    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average.

    We nice people in Sweeeden boosted our PISA results last time around by quietly excluding low-quality migrants, by the way.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Pericles

    Now, if only we could exclude low-quality migrants from reproducing...

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Pericles

    I know quote a few countries also exclude testing from the mentally challenged.

    Here in America, our great white women teachers have determined that is inequitable.

    On the other hand, it's probably more accurate to count how many mentally challenged and low-quality people actually exist within a country as a whole. Then again, maybe testing only O-Ring populations is the thing that matters.

  197. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Growth rates up to 2050
     
    All banks and financial institutions give you real GDP growth rates after accounting for inflation, this is what real gdp growth means.

    For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.
     
    Yeah, it is declining in all rich countries, regardless if there is large third world immigration or not, see Japan or Taiwan. This is the diminishing returns effect in economics. The richer you get, the lower the growth rate, in general.

    What are the numbers - see those from Bloomberg for example. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Average growth per year.

    China Growth Scenario Base case
    2021-2030 5.0%
    2031-2040 3.7%
    2041-2050 2.6%

    US future growth numbers can be taken from CBO, they are 2,35 % for 2021-2030, 1,6 % for 2030-2040, 1,5 % for 2040-2050.

    These are not per capita estimates but total gdp growth estimates, using widely available demographic data mostly in line with the UN population projections.

    China is currently 70,4 % GDP of the US and US is 100.

    Using a future value calc, this gives you China being 1,24 times bigger in MER GDP by 2050. Assuming relatively optimistic 20 % CNY appreciation that gives you 1,49 times bigger Chinese GDP by 2050.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney


    US racial demographics
     

    Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data
     
    I already made calculations using earnings and innovation rates in a comment above, check them out.

    You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor.
     

    I only spoke about economics, not about political and other issues. China i believe will be more stable than the US.

    I don't want to insist also, if you see my first wild guess was a 10 % US per capita GDP drop by 2100, later after some calcs i made i moved onto 15,5 % drop. I'm pretty open about ideas, actually i'm not a fan of the US. But i sometimes like to play devil's advocate too.

    I'm pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, so if there was some significant IQ and innovation drop the country should be more like Argentina or something. It should be showing in those parameters above. It shouldn't be so innovative currently, or be so rich, or have such gdp growth rates. And it is not showing, nothing significant, therefore the economic decline caused by the present demographics changes is relatively small.


    US overtaking China
     

    A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.
     
    Well, i don't know. The likes of Japan or Korea seems to be doing nothing, they probably prefer that overpopulation will decrease. China though faces great power competition, so it has to act. I'm just saying that the current demographic numbers out of China - 1,3 TFR with still large rural population, that will urbanise in the future, and thus TFR will drop further, a pretty bad.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @china-russia-all-the-way

    Growth rates up to 2050

    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years. A more HBD-orientated prediction uses South Korea’s economic trajectory of the last 30 years as a reference point for China’s next 30 years. In 2021, South Korea had a GDP per capita of 51% of the US.

    If China has 3.5 times the people as the US in 2050, you predict at the upper end, China will have a GDP per capita that is 43% of the US. I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead. The reasons are the South Korean precedent and US decline. China may not do as well as South Korea because of the constraints of being a big country (e.g. no possible way to match South Korean export market share in proportion to population), but I also believe US GDP per capita growth will be weaker over the next 30 years compared to the past. It will be hobbled by racial demographics.

    US racial demographics

    The US is by far the richest country per capita among countries with populations higher than 10 million. That makes it hard to see any effect of greater racial diversity on economic performance. But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn’t get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.

    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.

    US over taking China

    As this is 80 years away it’s too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.

    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never
    Bloomberg 5 July

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Replies: @Passer by

    , @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years.
     
    On the contrary, they were more optimistic about China and some predicted higher growth rates and China overtaking the US by around 2025. Today, these early optimistic views were downgraded to around 2030.

    On South Korea, or Japan, or Taiwan, i often thought about it, but what matters a lot is the system too. SK has americanised economic and political system. NK has another system, and although its the same people, the economic difference is huge. China has its own system. It is unclear if the chinese system will end up as productive as the SK one. Moreover, SK has turned into demographic black hole, with TFR dropping to the lowest in the world, around 0,9, which is going to bring down in the future the SK hard. So let's hope that China does not follow SK, or its reign will be short lived.

    I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead.
     
    Ok, i will be more than happy if this happens.


    But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn’t get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.
     
    Yeah, but the US as a country vaccums more talent than almost all other countries. You get the bad states, you get the good states, and when you take them all together, all of this contruct - the US, takes more tallent than others. Thus it has higher innovation rate per capita than others.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/noosphere/


    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.
     
    On this, i agree.

    As this is 80 years away it’s too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.
     
    Ok, but be aware that no developed country in East Asia managed to increase birth rates. Let's hope China makes it.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @reiner Tor

  198. @AnonfromTN
    @Shortsword


    Big Floyd is a national hero.
     
    Tell me who is your national hero, and I tell you what kind of nation you are.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Well put.

    Watching this whole surreal saga unfold is probably what whites who were in the know in the 1950s felt like when the Rosa Parks myth was being foisted on them. The difference is that was a complete put-up job, whereas the initial incident that sparked the Floyd mania occurred naturally. In both cases though, the entire media apparatus was psychologically and ideologically well prepared to spring into action.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @silviosilver


    The difference is that was a complete put-up job, whereas the initial incident that sparked the Floyd mania occurred naturally. In both cases though, the entire media apparatus was psychologically and ideologically well prepared to spring into action.

     

    Remember the poor jogger who was se upon by whitey a few weeks before the Floyd overdose? I think the Cathedral was casting about for something suitable to provoke a big chimpout before the election.

    Replies: @silviosilver

  199. @silviosilver
    @AnonfromTN

    Well put.

    Watching this whole surreal saga unfold is probably what whites who were in the know in the 1950s felt like when the Rosa Parks myth was being foisted on them. The difference is that was a complete put-up job, whereas the initial incident that sparked the Floyd mania occurred naturally. In both cases though, the entire media apparatus was psychologically and ideologically well prepared to spring into action.

    Replies: @Pericles

    The difference is that was a complete put-up job, whereas the initial incident that sparked the Floyd mania occurred naturally. In both cases though, the entire media apparatus was psychologically and ideologically well prepared to spring into action.

    Remember the poor jogger who was se upon by whitey a few weeks before the Floyd overdose? I think the Cathedral was casting about for something suitable to provoke a big chimpout before the election.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Pericles

    Yes, they were definitely prospecting. The 'jogger' story had legs, but they really hit pay dirt with Floyd. The smug way the cop had the groid on the ground with his knee, I bet some of the old hands in the newsroom knew they had another Rodney King the second they saw that.

  200. sher singh says:

    https://wesleyyang.substack.com/p/welcome-to-year-zero

    It took a decade or so for the theory of “colorblind racism” to move from academia to corporate America, and another half-decade for it to be explicitly endorsed by the federal government.

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2021/07/16/un-orders-global-systematic-racism-probe/

    “The UN Human Rights Council on Tuesday highlighted the global “scourge” of systemic racism and ordered an independent investigation into racially-fuelled police violence around the world.

    Setting up infra for Bantu invasion.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @sher singh

    "Racially-fuelled police violence" must be punished while regular police violence commited on same-race victims are ok, eh?

    The respect for the inherent value of humanity is gone.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  201. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you're extremely rich or homeless.

    You think that having to avoid offending progressive sensibilities is bad? In most of the world you have to actively show love, in all of your aesthetics, for whatever random cr*p that is popular. It is like a bad cliche of American high school times a million.

    The rest of the world does have a stronger private sphere, which allows people some freedom, but the public sphere, which, with modern technology, is more and more of life, is oppressively conformist.

    Latin America has been one big "everyone wears masks outdoors" jamboree for the last year. There is absolutely no evidence that this helps, but it is almost universally conformed to.

    The West thinks of the Japanese as conformist, like some people think Shia and Sunni are Muslims, so what's the difference, but less developed societies really are very extreme in this regards.

    An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared. I suppose they imagine that they would have had the whip hand, and destroy their "enemies", but probability says not.

    The ability to zoom in and zoom out of a picture, at will, without getting stuck or mesmerised, seems to be extremely rare.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Svevlad

    From what I have gathered over time, it turns out that Serbia, where the local soyadeen constantly bitch and moan about a “patriarchal xenophobic culture” is pretty much the most open. The worst we do is talk shit – and we do that to our friends, even. It’s all banter.

  202. @Pericles
    @Passer by


    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average.

     

    We nice people in Sweeeden boosted our PISA results last time around by quietly excluding low-quality migrants, by the way.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

    Now, if only we could exclude low-quality migrants from reproducing…

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Systemic sterilization you mean? One of the good things Bill Gates has done, by your standard, is using vaccinations to sterilize women in underdeveloped countries. The allegation of whether COVID vaccines are intended for that is one of the biggest points of contention.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad

  203. Please contact Galactic Central:

  204. @Yellowface Anon
    @Xi-Jinping

    You're probably underestimating the value of having currencies of political independence and opposition to the coming institutions. Which is why rather than re-formalizing economic activities, informalization is the trend for local economic activities, amd crypto is one of the options.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    I understand peoples desire for political independence but when was the last time governments left a popular thing unregulated? Or freely gave people political independence? I predict crypto.will be attacked by governments at every turn in the future

  205. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.
     
    There's still a lot who stay in the US, and there's plenty of cognitively elite people in lots of other countries.

    Furthermore, the US is exciting and fun. Staying in China is safe and homely.

    Hayek got it right when he pointed out that modern economies run on information. The US is great at this, and has positioned itself extremely well to take advantage of it in the future.

    Take computer games. I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with. This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market. Chinese products simply can't be as interesting to most other places - they can't even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

    This means, that in many different ways, China is cut off from global information streams, from which the highest level of development is drunk, while the US is the country which all of them actually flow through.

    I appreciate that the above point is not very fleshed out, but it is only just coalescing as a clear image in my head. I will reflect on it.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Jaakko Raipala, @Dmitry

    Take computer games.

    That’s one industry which is beginning to get dominated by China.

    I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with.

    This is a good thing as they censor all the woke ideology that ruined Western games. I’ve been playing Genshin Impact lately and it’s so refreshing to not have multiracial gay polyamorous romances in my silly bit of relaxing entertainment. It’s a huge hit that definitely proves that Chinese gaming industry is ready to take on the West although it’s also an example of things that are popular with Chinese gamers and not with Western gamers (gacha + mobile focus).

    Predictable censorship by the all powerful Party (or King or whoever) can be good for creativity because it lets the artist figure out the game of getting as close to the line as possible and finding creative ways to get the message to the viewer past the censors. De jure freedom of speech but de facto censorship by activist fanatics like in the West leads to much wider sanitization (since no one can predict who the fanatics come for next) and companies filling their products with pre-emptive pandering to the woke mob.

    This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market.

    The biggest problem that China has in exporting video games is that they jumped straight past the personal computer and console cultures that the West and Japan experienced and developed a tech culture mainly for smartphones. We find it a downgrade to game on a phone compared to a PC or a console but the Chinese don’t because they skipped that whole era and went straight from villages with no electricity to the smartphone era.

  206. @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you think im using "my story" to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women? If you presume to make judgements about them, im sure you arent afraid of such a challenge?


    that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something
     
    Sure women like sex with good looking men. I wasnt always good looking (looks is often a function of how you dress/your physique and less so about face, imo). Still had no problems then.

    They’re just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, 
     
    Further proof you dont meet many women - if you need a "credit card" or money to get laid - then you're a beta! In fact, if you want good relationships with women never pay for them and get them gifts. Ever. And never let them use your credit card. Spend money freely on yourself not on them.

    If you need money to get a woman, you're doing it wrong. I've had women pay for expensive hotels while i was a broke student living on a matress with my mom.

    Replies: @JL, @Triteleia Laxa

    If you think im using “my story” to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women?

    You go first!

    I also understand what “game” is, and the “theory” behind it. I strongly disagree with why it “works”, while not disputing the basic efficacy of don’t be pathetic, don’t be disgusting and don’t be boring.

    My main “interesting point” is that “game” posits that women are all about social status, unlike men, who like sex, because of biology.

    I find this hilarious, because, as per your post, men who talk about “game” a lot are obviously motivated by the way in which they perceive that sleeping with a lot of hot women will add to their own social status as a performatively masculine, sharp-eyed cynic.

    This, the inability to discern your own motivations from those of others, is a distinct psychological weakness. Such weaknesses make you very easy to manipulate; especially when paired with the delusion that you are manipulating others.

    Please try to calmly list what you think motivates women, and then attempt to recognise yourself in that list. It will be good for you.

    As for your triumphs with all of those hotties, I am happy for you, just try to remember, that from sex upwards through to lifetime partnership, it is about the journey, not the destination, as the destination is always death.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Game states that women are not just about social status lol. If you think that you know nothing of Game.

    Women and men have different biological imperatives and methods of achieving them.

    Women have a dual mating strategy that can be broadly described as "alpha fucks, beta bucks". Meaning that they'd rather fuck (and potentially have the kids) of a guy they think is psychologically alpha and have the weaker, provider type pay for it. This explains why women are more prone to cheat then men. If a man can embody both archetypes, that is ideal but very very rare. In youth when theyre beauty (and social status) is maxinized they will seek to date and sleep with the best guys. As they get older and their beauty (and this social status) declines, this becomes harder until they settle down with some poor schmuk who will be happy to provide for them and a kid blisfully unaware of their sordid past.

    Men on the other hand want to maximize their ability to sleep with as man women as possible (biologically speaking) while minimizing their investment.

    In traditional societies (before the social pact of monogamy was made), women where concentrated around a few men in harems. This accounts for why men have 17 female ancestors to 1 male ancestor (measured by variation in mitochondrial DNA for the female line and Y chromosomal variation in the male line). Eventually a social contract was made that guarenteed one woman for one man (however the powerful still ended up having harems), and this was done to ensure social stability and that men have a reason to contribute to society without going GALT or trying to overthrow it. This social contract broke and we are seeing a return to traditional times - most men arent having sex and most sex is concentrated around top 20% of men in a pareto distrbution. This has been even more exacerbated by online dating and womens enfranchisement . Game evolved as a response to that.

    Now you ask what makes a guy "alpha"? Of course social status, looks and money plays a role but ultimately women are willing to overlook that if you can project psychological strength. Looks money and status makes things a great deal easier, but psychological strength is what women want. They will actively test for it by trying to stur up conflict, drama or seeing how you react under pressure. This explains why some guys who "shouldnt" be able to get with hot women, do whereas rich men have to pay women (such as yourself) to get with them.

    So again, sleeping with alot of women does nothing to enhance my own social status. Guys dont care beyond trying to get the same thing. Its fun for me.

    https://ibb.co/b6Qg8Tw

    Poast bitches. It will autodelete in 2 hours

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Morton's toes
    @Triteleia Laxa

    (Some) game is effective for the goal of date raping skank hos. Also at signaling you are a loser.

    I look at it as a win-win.

  207. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    I’ve had sex with more women than most guys will in their lifetime. I’m tall and good looking asian guy who lifts 5x a week....Point is not to brag about my sexploits
     
    That is the only discernable point.

    Women will go after what they think gives them more social status – society (and men) can use that to their advantage
     
    You're hoping to use your story above to get more "social status" on this board, so I don't imagine that you'd be difficult to manipulate in exactly the way you think women are. This is interesting. It is also why I said that you would end up wound around some girl's finger, completely oblivious.

    Further evidence is that you think that you are tricking those women into sex, with the implication that you owe them something. If you are tall and good looking, then you aren't tricking them at all. Women enjoy sex and like tall and good looking men. They're just giving you that impression so that they get free use of your credit card, which I believe is ordinary in East Asia; you Machiavellian manipulator, you.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @AaronB

    He’ll be manipulated, but he’ll have no clue that’s what’s happening. He’ll insist it’s entirely his own desire to maximize his status and impress his girlfriend etc etc 🙂

    That’s always how it is with macho guys. They’re completely trapped by their self image and need to impress others, but cannot see this as being the victim of manipulation.

    In reality, though, as human beings we are interdependent on others and our environment. This dream of being able to stand “outside” this matrix and brainwash and manipulate others is a complete fantasy. Anything you try to manipulate you will necessarily end up being manipulated by.

    Take mating rituals – the man tries to “manipulate” the woman by impressing her with his “fitness”. But by so doing, he is acceding to her ideas of what fitness is. She expects – he conforms. Who is manipulating who?

    Maybe manipulating is the wrong frame. Interdependence is more accurate. And it’s not just other humans – the total environment, forces completely out of our control, play a role.

    This idea of the “outside observer”, standing aloof from everything and controlling it, was an artifact of Newtonian science, and has been decisively disproven by Quantum Mechanics. Our thinking just has not caught up yet.

    Although, philosophically, it has been disproven many times across the world.

    One feels that new advances in science are being held back from out unwillingnesd to truly move past the simplicity of Newton.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    @AaronB


    Take mating rituals – the man tries to “manipulate” the woman by impressing her with his “fitness”. But by so doing, he is acceding to her ideas of what fitness is. She expects – he conforms. Who is manipulating who?
     
    This isn't to say these "displays" work. Rather, this shows why they cannot by definition work. The practice undermines the premise.
  208. You know the dedicated Russia hater XSovietNews on Twitter? There’s an article about her being fired from her job. The information checks out with her Linkedin page so it’s definitely her. The story is basically that the employer fired her for behaving inappropriately and now she wants compensation for trauma.

    Here’s the article.

    Funny, but how is this newsworthy?

  209. @Pericles
    @silviosilver


    The difference is that was a complete put-up job, whereas the initial incident that sparked the Floyd mania occurred naturally. In both cases though, the entire media apparatus was psychologically and ideologically well prepared to spring into action.

     

    Remember the poor jogger who was se upon by whitey a few weeks before the Floyd overdose? I think the Cathedral was casting about for something suitable to provoke a big chimpout before the election.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Yes, they were definitely prospecting. The ‘jogger’ story had legs, but they really hit pay dirt with Floyd. The smug way the cop had the groid on the ground with his knee, I bet some of the old hands in the newsroom knew they had another Rodney King the second they saw that.

  210. @Svevlad
    @Pericles

    Now, if only we could exclude low-quality migrants from reproducing...

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Systemic sterilization you mean? One of the good things Bill Gates has done, by your standard, is using vaccinations to sterilize women in underdeveloped countries. The allegation of whether COVID vaccines are intended for that is one of the biggest points of contention.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    (I actually don't endorse that kind of sterilization. Properly you need the consent of the woman involved)

    , @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    Actually not good. What if he sterilized a good chunk of their potential smart fraction?

    It's the equivalent of spray and pray. Unacceptable.

    I would mostly pay the identified idiots to do it. Now that's a better one. I'd also pay identified geniuses to breed like rats. And I mean, good money. Literally be a professional birther.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  211. @AaronB
    @Triteleia Laxa

    He'll be manipulated, but he'll have no clue that's what's happening. He'll insist it's entirely his own desire to maximize his status and impress his girlfriend etc etc :)

    That's always how it is with macho guys. They're completely trapped by their self image and need to impress others, but cannot see this as being the victim of manipulation.

    In reality, though, as human beings we are interdependent on others and our environment. This dream of being able to stand "outside" this matrix and brainwash and manipulate others is a complete fantasy. Anything you try to manipulate you will necessarily end up being manipulated by.

    Take mating rituals - the man tries to "manipulate" the woman by impressing her with his "fitness". But by so doing, he is acceding to her ideas of what fitness is. She expects - he conforms. Who is manipulating who?

    Maybe manipulating is the wrong frame. Interdependence is more accurate. And it's not just other humans - the total environment, forces completely out of our control, play a role.

    This idea of the "outside observer", standing aloof from everything and controlling it, was an artifact of Newtonian science, and has been decisively disproven by Quantum Mechanics. Our thinking just has not caught up yet.

    Although, philosophically, it has been disproven many times across the world.

    One feels that new advances in science are being held back from out unwillingnesd to truly move past the simplicity of Newton.

    Replies: @AaronB

    Take mating rituals – the man tries to “manipulate” the woman by impressing her with his “fitness”. But by so doing, he is acceding to her ideas of what fitness is. She expects – he conforms. Who is manipulating who?

    This isn’t to say these “displays” work. Rather, this shows why they cannot by definition work. The practice undermines the premise.

    • Agree: Triteleia Laxa
  212. @sher singh
    https://wesleyyang.substack.com/p/welcome-to-year-zero

    It took a decade or so for the theory of "colorblind racism" to move from academia to corporate America, and another half-decade for it to be explicitly endorsed by the federal government.

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2021/07/16/un-orders-global-systematic-racism-probe/

    “The UN Human Rights Council on Tuesday highlighted the global “scourge” of systemic racism and ordered an independent investigation into racially-fuelled police violence around the world.

    Setting up infra for Bantu invasion.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    “Racially-fuelled police violence” must be punished while regular police violence commited on same-race victims are ok, eh?

    The respect for the inherent value of humanity is gone.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon

    Realistically speaking there is "no inherent value of humanity". A predator will eat you just like it will eat a rabbit. Nature will destroy you in one way or another. If humans had "inherent value" in the eyes of the Universe, we would not be so easily destroyed. We are less insignificant than dust to the Universe because dust makes stars and planets that last for millenia whereas a human is lucky to live a small insignificant speck in the history of the Universe.

    Humans like to ascribe themselves value but are ultimately worthless. This "inherent value" is a meme intended to increase social stability but even our human elites do not think that - if they did, theyd make greater effort to take care of their flock. But they do not.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  213. @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Systemic sterilization you mean? One of the good things Bill Gates has done, by your standard, is using vaccinations to sterilize women in underdeveloped countries. The allegation of whether COVID vaccines are intended for that is one of the biggest points of contention.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad

    (I actually don’t endorse that kind of sterilization. Properly you need the consent of the woman involved)

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  214. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

     

    Nah.

    I don't think that systems of informal networks, basically variants of "old boy clubs" favor women. Long and short, women don't seem to organize semi-secret cliques all that effectively.

    I suppose that's one perhaps positive result of it, even though it causes tons of other problems: tons of wasted efforts in stupid rivalries, lack of entrepreneurship due to financialization also using the friends and family system, and generally a lack of promotion of skill since it immediately favors seniority.

    Its funny - though probably not true - that it is arguably a reason for continuing Japanese malaise, as under Abenomics, Japanese banks provided tons of stimuli and tax cuts for their personal friends in the largest companies, which of course, just immediately saved it or paid it out in dividends rather than invest it. In the end, little of the stimulus ever turned into additional economic activity.

    It certainly was a hilarious amount of wasted money.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Already 40% of doctors in Japan under 29 are women. This has moved from single figures in a lifetime. All of your imagined obstructions haven’t done anything to stop the trend, which will continue, that is baked in. Japan is on the same path as the US, but just following 20 years behind. Reality has not conformed to your theories, so I suppose your theories are wrong.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I believe that this is hopium on your part, but we'll find out.

    , @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    According to the link there are 36 %.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00652/clear-gender-gap-for-japan%E2%80%99s-doctors.html

    Mostly concentrated in low pay areas.

    And there are limits to the view "things must be the same everywhere", or "people are identical".

    If you look at Asians living in the US, you will notice bigger gender pay gap than other groups, fewer asian women attending University, and higher level at stay at home mothers. Along with low divorce rates. So if asians in the US itself are less gender equal, i do not expect much coming from Japan.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  215. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    If you think im using “my story” to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women?
     
    You go first!

    I also understand what "game" is, and the "theory" behind it. I strongly disagree with why it "works", while not disputing the basic efficacy of don't be pathetic, don't be disgusting and don't be boring.

    My main "interesting point" is that "game" posits that women are all about social status, unlike men, who like sex, because of biology.

    I find this hilarious, because, as per your post, men who talk about "game" a lot are obviously motivated by the way in which they perceive that sleeping with a lot of hot women will add to their own social status as a performatively masculine, sharp-eyed cynic.

    This, the inability to discern your own motivations from those of others, is a distinct psychological weakness. Such weaknesses make you very easy to manipulate; especially when paired with the delusion that you are manipulating others.

    Please try to calmly list what you think motivates women, and then attempt to recognise yourself in that list. It will be good for you.

    As for your triumphs with all of those hotties, I am happy for you, just try to remember, that from sex upwards through to lifetime partnership, it is about the journey, not the destination, as the destination is always death.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @Morton's toes

    Game states that women are not just about social status lol. If you think that you know nothing of Game.

    Women and men have different biological imperatives and methods of achieving them.

    Women have a dual mating strategy that can be broadly described as “alpha fucks, beta bucks”. Meaning that they’d rather fuck (and potentially have the kids) of a guy they think is psychologically alpha and have the weaker, provider type pay for it. This explains why women are more prone to cheat then men. If a man can embody both archetypes, that is ideal but very very rare. In youth when theyre beauty (and social status) is maxinized they will seek to date and sleep with the best guys. As they get older and their beauty (and this social status) declines, this becomes harder until they settle down with some poor schmuk who will be happy to provide for them and a kid blisfully unaware of their sordid past.

    Men on the other hand want to maximize their ability to sleep with as man women as possible (biologically speaking) while minimizing their investment.

    In traditional societies (before the social pact of monogamy was made), women where concentrated around a few men in harems. This accounts for why men have 17 female ancestors to 1 male ancestor (measured by variation in mitochondrial DNA for the female line and Y chromosomal variation in the male line). Eventually a social contract was made that guarenteed one woman for one man (however the powerful still ended up having harems), and this was done to ensure social stability and that men have a reason to contribute to society without going GALT or trying to overthrow it. This social contract broke and we are seeing a return to traditional times – most men arent having sex and most sex is concentrated around top 20% of men in a pareto distrbution. This has been even more exacerbated by online dating and womens enfranchisement . Game evolved as a response to that.

    Now you ask what makes a guy “alpha”? Of course social status, looks and money plays a role but ultimately women are willing to overlook that if you can project psychological strength. Looks money and status makes things a great deal easier, but psychological strength is what women want. They will actively test for it by trying to stur up conflict, drama or seeing how you react under pressure. This explains why some guys who “shouldnt” be able to get with hot women, do whereas rich men have to pay women (such as yourself) to get with them.

    So again, sleeping with alot of women does nothing to enhance my own social status. Guys dont care beyond trying to get the same thing. Its fun for me.

    https://ibb.co/b6Qg8Tw

    Poast bitches. It will autodelete in 2 hours

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    psychological strength is what women want
     
    I don't think you know what this means, but you're right, even a lot of what feminism sincerely and openly wants men to do, is encouraging them to be psychologically stronger.

    For example, while poorly articulated, the campaign against "mansplaining" is encouraging men to recognise their epistemological limits and to be more curious. This is good advice.

    So again, sleeping with alot of women does nothing to enhance my own social status.
     
    I've just manipulated you to post an outre photo of a supposed "conquest" so that I, a stranger, can affirm your masculine value. You are too funny!

    They will actively test for it by trying to stur up conflict, drama or seeing how you react under pressure.
     
    People instinctively push others to develop. They do this in manifold ways. You have taken a thin slice of human interaction and made it the whole. I would strongly advise you to avoid entangling yourself with women who cause you to be constantly defensive. Your intuition is telling you to leave that situation. Listen to it.

    If you must stay with them, try opening up about the way you feel hurt by their behaviour and see if they care. If they don't care, have the courage to leave. Lying to yourself that you're not actually hurt is just playing yourself, not them.

    If you want to improve your "psychological strength", start by admitting, to yourself, just how much you want my validation and what that means given that I am total stranger. Have the courage to build yourself on foundations of truth, and you will be far more resilient. Lying to me, or other people, is fine, often necessary, but lying to yourself is stupid.

    Women and men have different biological imperatives and methods of achieving them.
     
    I understand the narrative, but it is a simplistic fantasy of biology. If we are biological beings then whatever we do is biological, and most people don't actually act as you describe, therefore what you describe is not biological. Reflect on this for a bit. It is important.

    In traditional societies (before the social pact of monogamy was made), women where concentrated around a few men in harems. This accounts for why men have 17 female ancestors to 1 male ancestor (measured by variation in mitochondrial DNA for the female line and Y chromosomal variation in the male line).
     
    A fact easily explained without your long diversion, by the story of the Sabine women. When war was more frequent and more local, and humans operated in much smaller groups, sometimes the men of one group would all be killed in a battle and the women would be still be alive. The quasi-rape, prostitution, making lemonade from lemons, that would follow, adequately explains the genetic phenomena which you highlight. Life has always been messy, but, thankfully, we seem easily able to do better.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  216. @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Systemic sterilization you mean? One of the good things Bill Gates has done, by your standard, is using vaccinations to sterilize women in underdeveloped countries. The allegation of whether COVID vaccines are intended for that is one of the biggest points of contention.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad

    Actually not good. What if he sterilized a good chunk of their potential smart fraction?

    It’s the equivalent of spray and pray. Unacceptable.

    I would mostly pay the identified idiots to do it. Now that’s a better one. I’d also pay identified geniuses to breed like rats. And I mean, good money. Literally be a professional birther.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    Actually whatever eugenics plan I agree with, I'm liking it ironically. Eugenics (at least the current goals) really means conforming biological selection to a capitalist viewpoint of social achievement once outside of genetic diseases (e.g. intelligence to work in productive industries and innovate, socialability).

  217. @Yellowface Anon
    @sher singh

    "Racially-fuelled police violence" must be punished while regular police violence commited on same-race victims are ok, eh?

    The respect for the inherent value of humanity is gone.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    Realistically speaking there is “no inherent value of humanity”. A predator will eat you just like it will eat a rabbit. Nature will destroy you in one way or another. If humans had “inherent value” in the eyes of the Universe, we would not be so easily destroyed. We are less insignificant than dust to the Universe because dust makes stars and planets that last for millenia whereas a human is lucky to live a small insignificant speck in the history of the Universe.

    Humans like to ascribe themselves value but are ultimately worthless. This “inherent value” is a meme intended to increase social stability but even our human elites do not think that – if they did, theyd make greater effort to take care of their flock. But they do not.

    • Agree: Svevlad
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping

    I am sorry you feel worthless.

  218. @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Game states that women are not just about social status lol. If you think that you know nothing of Game.

    Women and men have different biological imperatives and methods of achieving them.

    Women have a dual mating strategy that can be broadly described as "alpha fucks, beta bucks". Meaning that they'd rather fuck (and potentially have the kids) of a guy they think is psychologically alpha and have the weaker, provider type pay for it. This explains why women are more prone to cheat then men. If a man can embody both archetypes, that is ideal but very very rare. In youth when theyre beauty (and social status) is maxinized they will seek to date and sleep with the best guys. As they get older and their beauty (and this social status) declines, this becomes harder until they settle down with some poor schmuk who will be happy to provide for them and a kid blisfully unaware of their sordid past.

    Men on the other hand want to maximize their ability to sleep with as man women as possible (biologically speaking) while minimizing their investment.

    In traditional societies (before the social pact of monogamy was made), women where concentrated around a few men in harems. This accounts for why men have 17 female ancestors to 1 male ancestor (measured by variation in mitochondrial DNA for the female line and Y chromosomal variation in the male line). Eventually a social contract was made that guarenteed one woman for one man (however the powerful still ended up having harems), and this was done to ensure social stability and that men have a reason to contribute to society without going GALT or trying to overthrow it. This social contract broke and we are seeing a return to traditional times - most men arent having sex and most sex is concentrated around top 20% of men in a pareto distrbution. This has been even more exacerbated by online dating and womens enfranchisement . Game evolved as a response to that.

    Now you ask what makes a guy "alpha"? Of course social status, looks and money plays a role but ultimately women are willing to overlook that if you can project psychological strength. Looks money and status makes things a great deal easier, but psychological strength is what women want. They will actively test for it by trying to stur up conflict, drama or seeing how you react under pressure. This explains why some guys who "shouldnt" be able to get with hot women, do whereas rich men have to pay women (such as yourself) to get with them.

    So again, sleeping with alot of women does nothing to enhance my own social status. Guys dont care beyond trying to get the same thing. Its fun for me.

    https://ibb.co/b6Qg8Tw

    Poast bitches. It will autodelete in 2 hours

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    psychological strength is what women want

    I don’t think you know what this means, but you’re right, even a lot of what feminism sincerely and openly wants men to do, is encouraging them to be psychologically stronger.

    For example, while poorly articulated, the campaign against “mansplaining” is encouraging men to recognise their epistemological limits and to be more curious. This is good advice.

    So again, sleeping with alot of women does nothing to enhance my own social status.

    I’ve just manipulated you to post an outre photo of a supposed “conquest” so that I, a stranger, can affirm your masculine value. You are too funny!

    They will actively test for it by trying to stur up conflict, drama or seeing how you react under pressure.

    People instinctively push others to develop. They do this in manifold ways. You have taken a thin slice of human interaction and made it the whole. I would strongly advise you to avoid entangling yourself with women who cause you to be constantly defensive. Your intuition is telling you to leave that situation. Listen to it.

    If you must stay with them, try opening up about the way you feel hurt by their behaviour and see if they care. If they don’t care, have the courage to leave. Lying to yourself that you’re not actually hurt is just playing yourself, not them.

    If you want to improve your “psychological strength”, start by admitting, to yourself, just how much you want my validation and what that means given that I am total stranger. Have the courage to build yourself on foundations of truth, and you will be far more resilient. Lying to me, or other people, is fine, often necessary, but lying to yourself is stupid.

    Women and men have different biological imperatives and methods of achieving them.

    I understand the narrative, but it is a simplistic fantasy of biology. If we are biological beings then whatever we do is biological, and most people don’t actually act as you describe, therefore what you describe is not biological. Reflect on this for a bit. It is important.

    In traditional societies (before the social pact of monogamy was made), women where concentrated around a few men in harems. This accounts for why men have 17 female ancestors to 1 male ancestor (measured by variation in mitochondrial DNA for the female line and Y chromosomal variation in the male line).

    A fact easily explained without your long diversion, by the story of the Sabine women. When war was more frequent and more local, and humans operated in much smaller groups, sometimes the men of one group would all be killed in a battle and the women would be still be alive. The quasi-rape, prostitution, making lemonade from lemons, that would follow, adequately explains the genetic phenomena which you highlight. Life has always been messy, but, thankfully, we seem easily able to do better.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa



    don’t think you know what this means, but you’re right, even a lot of what feminism sincerely and openly wants men to do, is encouraging them to be psychologically stronger.

    For example, while poorly articulated, the campaign against “mansplaining” is encouraging men to recognise their epistemological limits and to be more curious. This is good advice.

     

    LOL. No. Feminst complaining about "mansplaining" is about power not epistemological limits or being more curious *facepalm*

    You dont know what "psychological strength" is judging by the drivel you wrote. In this context it means resistance to stress. Women need somebody to ground them and look for this in a man. This happens by her being able to feel that a guy is unperturbed by whatever is happening around them.

    I’ve just manipulated you to post an outre photo of a supposed “conquest” so that I, a stranger, can affirm your masculine value. You are too funny!

     

    Haha no. I was perfectly aware you wouldnt poast your own bitches. The reason i did it was to humiliate you not to have some (probably fat) internet stranger to "affirm my value". Since i knew you wouldnt poast, me poasting affirms that I did not lie. Whereas you not poasting merely indicates you get nothing. This puts whatever you say into doubt.

    This is very much the method ancient romans used in court to confirm the truth of their words.

    People instinctively push others to develop. They do this in manifold ways. You have taken a thin slice of human interaction and made it the whole. I would strongly advise you to avoid entangling yourself with women who cause you to be constantly defensive. Your intuition is telling you to leave that situation. Listen to it.

    If you must stay with them, try opening up about the way you feel hurt by their behaviour and see if they care. If they don’t care, have the courage to leave. Lying to yourself that you’re not actually hurt is just playing yourself, not them.

    If you want to improve your “psychological strength”, start by admitting, to yourself, just how much you want my validation and what that means given that I am total stranger. Have the courage to build yourself on foundations of truth, and you will be far more resilient. Lying to me, or other people, is fine, often necessary, but lying to yourself is stupid.

     


     
    LOL this reads like a cope. Women hate emotionality in men. It makes them scared.

    I dont care for your validation, but I did prove a point.

     

    fact easily explained without your long diversion, by the story of the Sabine women. When war was more frequent and more local, and humans operated in much smaller groups, sometimes the men of one group would all be killed in a battle and the women would be still be alive
     
    You described the concept of "War brides" where women are able to rapidly adapt to a new man or the loss of an old one. Which manifests itself in the ability of women to get over men easier than men get over women.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/psmag.com/.amp/environment/17-to-1-reproductive-success

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  219. @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon

    Realistically speaking there is "no inherent value of humanity". A predator will eat you just like it will eat a rabbit. Nature will destroy you in one way or another. If humans had "inherent value" in the eyes of the Universe, we would not be so easily destroyed. We are less insignificant than dust to the Universe because dust makes stars and planets that last for millenia whereas a human is lucky to live a small insignificant speck in the history of the Universe.

    Humans like to ascribe themselves value but are ultimately worthless. This "inherent value" is a meme intended to increase social stability but even our human elites do not think that - if they did, theyd make greater effort to take care of their flock. But they do not.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I am sorry you feel worthless.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
  220. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    psychological strength is what women want
     
    I don't think you know what this means, but you're right, even a lot of what feminism sincerely and openly wants men to do, is encouraging them to be psychologically stronger.

    For example, while poorly articulated, the campaign against "mansplaining" is encouraging men to recognise their epistemological limits and to be more curious. This is good advice.

    So again, sleeping with alot of women does nothing to enhance my own social status.
     
    I've just manipulated you to post an outre photo of a supposed "conquest" so that I, a stranger, can affirm your masculine value. You are too funny!

    They will actively test for it by trying to stur up conflict, drama or seeing how you react under pressure.
     
    People instinctively push others to develop. They do this in manifold ways. You have taken a thin slice of human interaction and made it the whole. I would strongly advise you to avoid entangling yourself with women who cause you to be constantly defensive. Your intuition is telling you to leave that situation. Listen to it.

    If you must stay with them, try opening up about the way you feel hurt by their behaviour and see if they care. If they don't care, have the courage to leave. Lying to yourself that you're not actually hurt is just playing yourself, not them.

    If you want to improve your "psychological strength", start by admitting, to yourself, just how much you want my validation and what that means given that I am total stranger. Have the courage to build yourself on foundations of truth, and you will be far more resilient. Lying to me, or other people, is fine, often necessary, but lying to yourself is stupid.

    Women and men have different biological imperatives and methods of achieving them.
     
    I understand the narrative, but it is a simplistic fantasy of biology. If we are biological beings then whatever we do is biological, and most people don't actually act as you describe, therefore what you describe is not biological. Reflect on this for a bit. It is important.

    In traditional societies (before the social pact of monogamy was made), women where concentrated around a few men in harems. This accounts for why men have 17 female ancestors to 1 male ancestor (measured by variation in mitochondrial DNA for the female line and Y chromosomal variation in the male line).
     
    A fact easily explained without your long diversion, by the story of the Sabine women. When war was more frequent and more local, and humans operated in much smaller groups, sometimes the men of one group would all be killed in a battle and the women would be still be alive. The quasi-rape, prostitution, making lemonade from lemons, that would follow, adequately explains the genetic phenomena which you highlight. Life has always been messy, but, thankfully, we seem easily able to do better.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    don’t think you know what this means, but you’re right, even a lot of what feminism sincerely and openly wants men to do, is encouraging them to be psychologically stronger.

    For example, while poorly articulated, the campaign against “mansplaining” is encouraging men to recognise their epistemological limits and to be more curious. This is good advice.

    LOL. No. Feminst complaining about “mansplaining” is about power not epistemological limits or being more curious *facepalm*

    You dont know what “psychological strength” is judging by the drivel you wrote. In this context it means resistance to stress. Women need somebody to ground them and look for this in a man. This happens by her being able to feel that a guy is unperturbed by whatever is happening around them.

    I’ve just manipulated you to post an outre photo of a supposed “conquest” so that I, a stranger, can affirm your masculine value. You are too funny!

    Haha no. I was perfectly aware you wouldnt poast your own bitches. The reason i did it was to humiliate you not to have some (probably fat) internet stranger to “affirm my value”. Since i knew you wouldnt poast, me poasting affirms that I did not lie. Whereas you not poasting merely indicates you get nothing. This puts whatever you say into doubt.

    This is very much the method ancient romans used in court to confirm the truth of their words.

    People instinctively push others to develop. They do this in manifold ways. You have taken a thin slice of human interaction and made it the whole. I would strongly advise you to avoid entangling yourself with women who cause you to be constantly defensive. Your intuition is telling you to leave that situation. Listen to it.

    If you must stay with them, try opening up about the way you feel hurt by their behaviour and see if they care. If they don’t care, have the courage to leave. Lying to yourself that you’re not actually hurt is just playing yourself, not them.

    If you want to improve your “psychological strength”, start by admitting, to yourself, just how much you want my validation and what that means given that I am total stranger. Have the courage to build yourself on foundations of truth, and you will be far more resilient. Lying to me, or other people, is fine, often necessary, but lying to yourself is stupid.

    LOL this reads like a cope. Women hate emotionality in men. It makes them scared.

    I dont care for your validation, but I did prove a point.

     

    fact easily explained without your long diversion, by the story of the Sabine women. When war was more frequent and more local, and humans operated in much smaller groups, sometimes the men of one group would all be killed in a battle and the women would be still be alive

    You described the concept of “War brides” where women are able to rapidly adapt to a new man or the loss of an old one. Which manifests itself in the ability of women to get over men easier than men get over women.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/psmag.com/.amp/environment/17-to-1-reproductive-success

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    Women hate emotionality in men. It makes them scared.
     
    No, you hate your emotionality. It makes you feel scared.

    No wonder you feel worthless, you have decided that hating yourself is strength.

    And no wonder you are seeking my validation, you can't even validate your own feelings.


    Women need somebody to ground them and look for this in a man. This happens by her being able to feel that a guy is unperturbed by whatever is happening around them.
     
    If you felt more worthy, you wouldn't be comparing yourself to dirt on the ground, and you wouldn't need to pretend to be unperturbed by small slights.

    The only person who you've been playing is yourself.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

  221. @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    Actually not good. What if he sterilized a good chunk of their potential smart fraction?

    It's the equivalent of spray and pray. Unacceptable.

    I would mostly pay the identified idiots to do it. Now that's a better one. I'd also pay identified geniuses to breed like rats. And I mean, good money. Literally be a professional birther.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Actually whatever eugenics plan I agree with, I’m liking it ironically. Eugenics (at least the current goals) really means conforming biological selection to a capitalist viewpoint of social achievement once outside of genetic diseases (e.g. intelligence to work in productive industries and innovate, socialability).

  222. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Already 40% of doctors in Japan under 29 are women. This has moved from single figures in a lifetime. All of your imagined obstructions haven't done anything to stop the trend, which will continue, that is baked in. Japan is on the same path as the US, but just following 20 years behind. Reality has not conformed to your theories, so I suppose your theories are wrong.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Passer by

    I believe that this is hopium on your part, but we’ll find out.

  223. @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh


    The reason why governments encourage women in the workforce is that they would like more GDP per capita; this was explicitly the reasoning behind Abenomics.
     
    I agree. Once a certain lvele of prosperity is reached (and in especially dire straits like Korea or Japan), the emphasis should shift away from GDP/capita and towards fertility. I wonder if we will see this.

    The corporate encouragement of female employment
     
    It seems the entire feminist movement that is seen in the West is derived from corporations trying to brainwash women into entering the workforce to increase the labor pool while decreasing wages.

    I don’t think men particularly favor large families either though
     
    Most Men are more romantic (ironically) than women and are essentially open to doing whatever the woman wants. However on social media (especially om the right), it seems that "Trad lifestyles" with large families are being propagandized for men. This is bound to subconciously influence mens preferences.

    In general, urban environments don’t since children are costs rather than potential employees.
     
    I dont think people think this far ahead. Rather they see glamorous lifestyles on TV and want to continue having "fun" (usually "fun" is also whatever they see online/on tv)

    Its also possible that there’s just some sort of mental effect against crowding.
     
    I dont think such a mechanism exists. Though I may be mistaken.

    I personally think that pro-natalism policies should resemble Hungary’s, which seem to encourage women already with children to have more children. That’s particularly useful in East Asia, where many women have one child – but then stop at one. Encouraging increased fertility from those who have more, and thus already have sunk costs into children, is likely an effective trend.

    Probably if you create enough mothers like that, they’ll basically form their own political bloc. Housewives can have a surprising amount of free time for politics once the children are older, or if they have older children taking care of younger ones.

     

    Interesting idea. And how has this worked for Hungary thus far?

    Also, the question arises is how do you "encourage" women to have more children? The only way I see is to flood them with propaganda. Good propaganda is strong enough to bypass peoples natural aversion/dusgust to gays or transvestites, i'm sure it will work particularly strong on things that are biological imperatives like child raising.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Interesting idea. And how has this worked for Hungary thus far?

    In Hungary, the fertility rate has risen from 1.23 to 1.48, so that’s something.

    Also, the question arises is how do you “encourage” women to have more children?

    Money seems to work. Basically it pays couples money to have more children, or extends tax benefits that increase per child born. Basically, instead of trying to push its way, it lowers barriers for people who already want to have a number of children. Indirectly, it might also promote the “breeder” population as well.

    Such policies have been discussed in East Asia, I believe, but are opposed by women(usually with careers) who basically do not want other women to have more children; disguised partly in talk of their tax money going places they don’t benefit from, etc or it encouraging the poor to breed, but there’s clearly some sort of status thing going on there. Fortunately, at least for China, it is not a democracy and women have had a declining share of political power.

    Its always easier to guide a thirsty horse to the through than it is to force a horse to drink.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Daniel Chieh

    Im not certain how far moneyhelps in raising fertility. In Russia, maternity capital has not had any significant effect in raising birth rates anongst young women.

    In fact, giving money to promote "breeders" especially in Asian societies like China that had families with many kids - doesnt make sense - since it seems logical that only breeders would have outbred everyone in the first place (judging by sheer population size). This propensity for "breeding" has not gone away over the course of 2 or so generations. Evolution does not work that fast. This indicates to me that this is more of a "mental software" than "hardware" issue.

    Money promoting "breeders" only works in societies with a relatively small population as there would exist a much larger percent of "non-breeders". I do not think these exist in populous countries like China.

  224. @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa



    don’t think you know what this means, but you’re right, even a lot of what feminism sincerely and openly wants men to do, is encouraging them to be psychologically stronger.

    For example, while poorly articulated, the campaign against “mansplaining” is encouraging men to recognise their epistemological limits and to be more curious. This is good advice.

     

    LOL. No. Feminst complaining about "mansplaining" is about power not epistemological limits or being more curious *facepalm*

    You dont know what "psychological strength" is judging by the drivel you wrote. In this context it means resistance to stress. Women need somebody to ground them and look for this in a man. This happens by her being able to feel that a guy is unperturbed by whatever is happening around them.

    I’ve just manipulated you to post an outre photo of a supposed “conquest” so that I, a stranger, can affirm your masculine value. You are too funny!

     

    Haha no. I was perfectly aware you wouldnt poast your own bitches. The reason i did it was to humiliate you not to have some (probably fat) internet stranger to "affirm my value". Since i knew you wouldnt poast, me poasting affirms that I did not lie. Whereas you not poasting merely indicates you get nothing. This puts whatever you say into doubt.

    This is very much the method ancient romans used in court to confirm the truth of their words.

    People instinctively push others to develop. They do this in manifold ways. You have taken a thin slice of human interaction and made it the whole. I would strongly advise you to avoid entangling yourself with women who cause you to be constantly defensive. Your intuition is telling you to leave that situation. Listen to it.

    If you must stay with them, try opening up about the way you feel hurt by their behaviour and see if they care. If they don’t care, have the courage to leave. Lying to yourself that you’re not actually hurt is just playing yourself, not them.

    If you want to improve your “psychological strength”, start by admitting, to yourself, just how much you want my validation and what that means given that I am total stranger. Have the courage to build yourself on foundations of truth, and you will be far more resilient. Lying to me, or other people, is fine, often necessary, but lying to yourself is stupid.

     


     
    LOL this reads like a cope. Women hate emotionality in men. It makes them scared.

    I dont care for your validation, but I did prove a point.

     

    fact easily explained without your long diversion, by the story of the Sabine women. When war was more frequent and more local, and humans operated in much smaller groups, sometimes the men of one group would all be killed in a battle and the women would be still be alive
     
    You described the concept of "War brides" where women are able to rapidly adapt to a new man or the loss of an old one. Which manifests itself in the ability of women to get over men easier than men get over women.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/psmag.com/.amp/environment/17-to-1-reproductive-success

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Women hate emotionality in men. It makes them scared.

    No, you hate your emotionality. It makes you feel scared.

    No wonder you feel worthless, you have decided that hating yourself is strength.

    And no wonder you are seeking my validation, you can’t even validate your own feelings.

    Women need somebody to ground them and look for this in a man. This happens by her being able to feel that a guy is unperturbed by whatever is happening around them.

    If you felt more worthy, you wouldn’t be comparing yourself to dirt on the ground, and you wouldn’t need to pretend to be unperturbed by small slights.

    The only person who you’ve been playing is yourself.

    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa


    No, you hate your emotionality. It makes you feel scared
     
    On the contrary I recognize my own emotions and deal with them as they come. However I do not show them to wonen bc women despise emotionality in men. If you had any experience with women, youd know that.


    We've already established that you are not qualified to speak of women bc you did not poast bitches.

    Its like in a Roman court where veterans will expose the scars on their chest to show they always faced the enemy and never ran. This gave their words more gravity as they proved their word through deed. You did not prove your word through deed whereas I did. Which means that you are not qualified to speak on the matter bc you dont get bitches.

    Replies: @AP

  225. onservative grift

    It’s true that political activists are often some kind of financial scammers, in the sense they want people to finance their “work”, which for the rest of society might appear as a “useless, nonproductive labour” (labour that doesn’t create any objects or services of real value).

    But a lot of the kind of people attracted to this online political activist profession, also are significantly nonfinancially motivated people: those who want to attract attention to themselves – that is, to generate what the writers on personality disorders call “narcissistic supply”.

    With the internet, this has become even more prominent than it might have been among political activists of the past, and this emotional motive of the activists to generate attention for themselves, and the financial motive become conjoined, as the online content producing professional only receive financial support if that are able to generate sufficient clicks onto their content.

    Political activists are usually not good looking enough to be an “influencer” who generates attention by posting photos of themselves in bikini in Instagram, so they can often only generate attention by promoting controversial or clickbait political content.

    Whether the attention they receive is positive or negative, the financial and emotional necessity is to generate attention to their content, and often that can only be achieved by increasingly extreme and socially taboo (to another part of society) views.

    This is one of the pathways by which the internet seems to be contributing to increasingly intensity of the stupidity that we see in the American political debate – by the predominance of clickbait content generators, that have a higher proportion of people with unusual immoderations in their personality, if not personality disorders. Because the motivation of the professional political activist and writer, is to generate attention from their audience, rather than to give their audience an objective or logically coherent commentary.

  226. @inertial
    I fail to see a problem with "Freedom phone". I wouldn't buy one but I don't see what's so sneer-worthy about this idea.

    There is an increasing number of the so-called conservative intellectuals who like to ridicule "rightoids". Hanania is one. Karlin wants to get on that train, too. What's interesting to me is that there is nothing like this on the left. There is a ton of stupid "leftoids", in fact whole demographics of them. But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.

    Re: Bashibuzuk's sci-fi idea. Isn't that basically the premise of Zardoz? There must be hundreds of books written around this idea going back to H.G. Wells's Time Machine. My favorite is the forgotten classic Engine Summer by John Crowley.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Nimrod, @Svidomyatheart

    Hanania does, to some degree, punch down on rightoids for falling for grifters. He is temperamentally arrogant and narcissistic.

    But take a look at his whole oeuvre. His actual policy recommendations sound like something out of a paleocon/white nationalist journal (crush teachers’ unions, defund universities, gut the Civil Rights Act). He’s on our side. If lefties actually though critically about what he says and does, they’d de-platform him instantly.

    Let him build up cover for himself wherever he can so he can keep pushing Crimethink.

  227. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years. A more HBD-orientated prediction uses South Korea's economic trajectory of the last 30 years as a reference point for China's next 30 years. In 2021, South Korea had a GDP per capita of 51% of the US.

    If China has 3.5 times the people as the US in 2050, you predict at the upper end, China will have a GDP per capita that is 43% of the US. I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead. The reasons are the South Korean precedent and US decline. China may not do as well as South Korea because of the constraints of being a big country (e.g. no possible way to match South Korean export market share in proportion to population), but I also believe US GDP per capita growth will be weaker over the next 30 years compared to the past. It will be hobbled by racial demographics.

    US racial demographics

    The US is by far the richest country per capita among countries with populations higher than 10 million. That makes it hard to see any effect of greater racial diversity on economic performance. But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn't get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.

    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.

    US over taking China

    As this is 80 years away it's too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Passer by

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Morton's toes

    I personally tweeted on their Twitter account that the article is biased. For example it sees possible negative scenarios only for China, but not for the US. For example that economic crisis may happen in China, but not in the US. This is one sided, an economic crisis may happen in the US too, actually they regularly happen. They did not mention the issues with US debt, only the chinese one, or the issues with US birth rate drops, only the chinese ones.

  228. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    If you think im using “my story” to acquire more social status on an anonymous board, why dont we poast the quality of women we get and see who gets the hotter women?
     
    You go first!

    I also understand what "game" is, and the "theory" behind it. I strongly disagree with why it "works", while not disputing the basic efficacy of don't be pathetic, don't be disgusting and don't be boring.

    My main "interesting point" is that "game" posits that women are all about social status, unlike men, who like sex, because of biology.

    I find this hilarious, because, as per your post, men who talk about "game" a lot are obviously motivated by the way in which they perceive that sleeping with a lot of hot women will add to their own social status as a performatively masculine, sharp-eyed cynic.

    This, the inability to discern your own motivations from those of others, is a distinct psychological weakness. Such weaknesses make you very easy to manipulate; especially when paired with the delusion that you are manipulating others.

    Please try to calmly list what you think motivates women, and then attempt to recognise yourself in that list. It will be good for you.

    As for your triumphs with all of those hotties, I am happy for you, just try to remember, that from sex upwards through to lifetime partnership, it is about the journey, not the destination, as the destination is always death.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @Morton's toes

    (Some) game is effective for the goal of date raping skank hos. Also at signaling you are a loser.

    I look at it as a win-win.

  229. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Xi-Jinping


    Women hate emotionality in men. It makes them scared.
     
    No, you hate your emotionality. It makes you feel scared.

    No wonder you feel worthless, you have decided that hating yourself is strength.

    And no wonder you are seeking my validation, you can't even validate your own feelings.


    Women need somebody to ground them and look for this in a man. This happens by her being able to feel that a guy is unperturbed by whatever is happening around them.
     
    If you felt more worthy, you wouldn't be comparing yourself to dirt on the ground, and you wouldn't need to pretend to be unperturbed by small slights.

    The only person who you've been playing is yourself.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    No, you hate your emotionality. It makes you feel scared

    On the contrary I recognize my own emotions and deal with them as they come. However I do not show them to wonen bc women despise emotionality in men. If you had any experience with women, youd know that.

    We’ve already established that you are not qualified to speak of women bc you did not poast bitches.

    Its like in a Roman court where veterans will expose the scars on their chest to show they always faced the enemy and never ran. This gave their words more gravity as they proved their word through deed. You did not prove your word through deed whereas I did. Which means that you are not qualified to speak on the matter bc you dont get bitches.

    • LOL: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @AP
    @Xi-Jinping

    Are you autistic, or rather sociopathic?

    It depends on whether you were truthful about your claims about your personal life. If you weren't, then your obvious cluelessness about women suggests autism. You would do well to learn from your interlocutor.

    If you were truthful, then sociopathy comes into play.

    But Triteleia really manipulated you well. That must burn :-)

    Replies: @Xi-jinping

  230. @Daniel Chieh
    @Xi-Jinping


    Interesting idea. And how has this worked for Hungary thus far?


     

    In Hungary, the fertility rate has risen from 1.23 to 1.48, so that's something.

    Also, the question arises is how do you “encourage” women to have more children?
     
    Money seems to work. Basically it pays couples money to have more children, or extends tax benefits that increase per child born. Basically, instead of trying to push its way, it lowers barriers for people who already want to have a number of children. Indirectly, it might also promote the "breeder" population as well.

    Such policies have been discussed in East Asia, I believe, but are opposed by women(usually with careers) who basically do not want other women to have more children; disguised partly in talk of their tax money going places they don't benefit from, etc or it encouraging the poor to breed, but there's clearly some sort of status thing going on there. Fortunately, at least for China, it is not a democracy and women have had a declining share of political power.

    Its always easier to guide a thirsty horse to the through than it is to force a horse to drink.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping

    Im not certain how far moneyhelps in raising fertility. In Russia, maternity capital has not had any significant effect in raising birth rates anongst young women.

    In fact, giving money to promote “breeders” especially in Asian societies like China that had families with many kids – doesnt make sense – since it seems logical that only breeders would have outbred everyone in the first place (judging by sheer population size). This propensity for “breeding” has not gone away over the course of 2 or so generations. Evolution does not work that fast. This indicates to me that this is more of a “mental software” than “hardware” issue.

    Money promoting “breeders” only works in societies with a relatively small population as there would exist a much larger percent of “non-breeders”. I do not think these exist in populous countries like China.

  231. @silviosilver
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Dude, I hope for your sake you're just some kind of shill. If you're sincere, lol, good luck, you'll be needing plenty.

    (I'll say this though, the ability to sit tight when you're on a winner is indeed golden; but if you're on a loser, uh-uh. So not only do you need some reliable way to distinguish between the two - ie how much room or time do you give the latter to turn into the former - but also some reliable way of ensuring you'll have enough of the former to make up for the absolute, total inevitability of the latter. AK's "advice," apparently based on no more than the most simplistic application of technical analysis "principles"- unless that Roko dude actually has some other sound reason for his assertion, which I kinda doubt - is not going to help you in either of those two tasks, not even close.)

    Replies: @Dmitry

    It’s not difficult to add the (small portion of) money you wanted to invest in stocks, to an index tracking fund, and forget about it for 10 years. Only idiots, masochists, or people who enjoy statistical noise, will follow the daily movements of such kind of investments.

    10 years sounds like a long time, but life is either very short, or time is going very fast, because the 10 years will have transpassed in an instant. Very soon it will be 2031, and you will be saying to yourself “it feels like only a few hours ago that it was 2021”.

    Of course, in that time, your youth will have run from you, and you will begin to find grey hairs – but in most of the possible futures likely you will have earned a little “free money” when you look at the envelope, and that will provide your older version of yourself with some sense of financial wisdom. (Although the freedom of the money will be somewhat of an illusion, due to the fact you did expose it to risk that resulted in losing money in some minority of other alternative futures that you will likely avoid having to live).

    For most of your income though, better to spend it now and buy some cool stuff while you are still alive and healthy, and childish enough to enjoy such things.

  232. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Already 40% of doctors in Japan under 29 are women. This has moved from single figures in a lifetime. All of your imagined obstructions haven't done anything to stop the trend, which will continue, that is baked in. Japan is on the same path as the US, but just following 20 years behind. Reality has not conformed to your theories, so I suppose your theories are wrong.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Passer by

    According to the link there are 36 %.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00652/clear-gender-gap-for-japan%E2%80%99s-doctors.html

    Mostly concentrated in low pay areas.

    And there are limits to the view “things must be the same everywhere”, or “people are identical”.

    If you look at Asians living in the US, you will notice bigger gender pay gap than other groups, fewer asian women attending University, and higher level at stay at home mothers. Along with low divorce rates. So if asians in the US itself are less gender equal, i do not expect much coming from Japan.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    10%, 20%, 36%. This is how it has moved over only a short period of time. It isn't hard to extrapolate out from that. Japan is on exactly the same trend line as the US, just 20 years behind. You can give any explanation you want, but the trend line still trends, and there is no sign of it halting or reversing. I am not making any value judgements, I am just acknowledging reality.


    If you look at Asians living in the US, you will notice bigger gender pay gap than other groups, fewer asian women attending University, and higher level at stay at home mothers.
     
    Divorce rates are confused by socio-economic status, but, in other areas, those stats are just as US white ones were 20 years ago.

    The direction of travel is extremely obvious.

    It is also obvious that almost no woman is attracted to a political programme which sees them discriminated against at work. Would even you be able to exercise such discrimination in the face of mildly sustained female resistance? Would anyone on this site? Is the only reason they don't beat their wives and girlfriends because those women obey their every whim, or because they are worried about the police? Would they bar their daughters and sisters from medical school, sternly admonishing them through their tears, that it was for the good of society? I doubt it. It is all just a bunch of pretense and a silly power fantasy, though broken, antisocial exceptions do exist.

    Once they stop pretending, they will be able to see clearly why societies are trending in this direction. It isn't because of media or some other facile placeholder, it is because people are adapting to the exigencies of life, as mediated by technological progress and the subsequent complexification of society. They may even see that this is a good thing, in as much as anything is good, because it is allowing people to answer their own questions. Good luck with standing on the shoreline and demanding that this tide won't come in!

    Replies: @Passer by

  233. @AaronB
    Just as 2% Jews dominate the world, so too 3% of Jewish ancestry dominates Karlin's personality.

    There is no escape, Karlin.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    Jews are less than 0,2% of the population, so Karlin is showing 15 times higher levels of Judaism than a normal sample .

    If international guidelines for normal safe levels of Judaism in a person are 2000 ppm (parts per million), Karlin’s blood is measuring contamination rates as high as 30,000 ppm, at which point we might might begin to see the neurotoxic effects with symptoms like an interest in stock market and collecting multiple passports.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Xi-Jinping
    @Dmitry

    Didnt know Karlin is a Jew. If he is, that explains alot

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Dmitry

    It's just neurotic Internationalism that afflict Jews in large numbers and other ethnicies to a smaller extent (such as Karlin)

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Dmitry

    Didn't you once say that you were at 125,000 ppm Judaism?

    Anyhow, as you well know, it's typically only full Jews who say they are Jews on Russian censuses. Both Moscow's and Saint-Petersburg's population peaked at ~5% Jewish during the 1920s, even in 2010 Moscow was at 0.5% (>1% in its central parts). Between that and assimilation, I don't even think my 3% admixture is extremely atypical relative to the average ethnic Russian Muscovite (who I would guess is something like 1% Jewish).



    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kireev/2901613/785429/785429_original.png

  234. @Dmitry
    @AaronB

    Jews are less than 0,2% of the population, so Karlin is showing 15 times higher levels of Judaism than a normal sample .

    If international guidelines for normal safe levels of Judaism in a person are 2000 ppm (parts per million), Karlin's blood is measuring contamination rates as high as 30,000 ppm, at which point we might might begin to see the neurotoxic effects with symptoms like an interest in stock market and collecting multiple passports.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    Didnt know Karlin is a Jew. If he is, that explains alot

  235. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    Growth rates up to 2050

    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years. A more HBD-orientated prediction uses South Korea's economic trajectory of the last 30 years as a reference point for China's next 30 years. In 2021, South Korea had a GDP per capita of 51% of the US.

    If China has 3.5 times the people as the US in 2050, you predict at the upper end, China will have a GDP per capita that is 43% of the US. I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead. The reasons are the South Korean precedent and US decline. China may not do as well as South Korea because of the constraints of being a big country (e.g. no possible way to match South Korean export market share in proportion to population), but I also believe US GDP per capita growth will be weaker over the next 30 years compared to the past. It will be hobbled by racial demographics.

    US racial demographics

    The US is by far the richest country per capita among countries with populations higher than 10 million. That makes it hard to see any effect of greater racial diversity on economic performance. But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn't get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.

    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.

    US over taking China

    As this is 80 years away it's too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Passer by

    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years.

    On the contrary, they were more optimistic about China and some predicted higher growth rates and China overtaking the US by around 2025. Today, these early optimistic views were downgraded to around 2030.

    On South Korea, or Japan, or Taiwan, i often thought about it, but what matters a lot is the system too. SK has americanised economic and political system. NK has another system, and although its the same people, the economic difference is huge. China has its own system. It is unclear if the chinese system will end up as productive as the SK one. Moreover, SK has turned into demographic black hole, with TFR dropping to the lowest in the world, around 0,9, which is going to bring down in the future the SK hard. So let’s hope that China does not follow SK, or its reign will be short lived.

    I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead.

    Ok, i will be more than happy if this happens.

    But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn’t get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.

    Yeah, but the US as a country vaccums more talent than almost all other countries. You get the bad states, you get the good states, and when you take them all together, all of this contruct – the US, takes more tallent than others. Thus it has higher innovation rate per capita than others.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/noosphere/

    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.

    On this, i agree.

    As this is 80 years away it’s too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.

    Ok, but be aware that no developed country in East Asia managed to increase birth rates. Let’s hope China makes it.

    • Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Passer by

    I would add one last point that greater racial diversity can also drag down growth through voting behavior. Latinos especially like universal healthcare, which is estimated to cost $3 trillion per year. That's a lot of new taxes that will stunt the economy. And of equal or greater importance to more Latinos to passing universal healthcare is the decline of white Christians. There are still considerable white Christian voters but the group is fast declining in number. Their shrinking numbers along with new Latino voters will pave the way for universal healthcare and a further factor in stagnation of GDP per capita by 2050.

    , @reiner Tor
    @Passer by


    On South Korea, or Japan, or Taiwan, i often thought about it, but what matters a lot is the system too. SK has americanised economic and political system. NK has another system, and although its the same people, the economic difference is huge. China has its own system. It is unclear if the chinese system will end up as productive as the SK one.
     
    I’d think that the biggest variable is whether there’s a market economy or not. Also in the case of a relatively small country like North Korea international sanctions and striving for a complete autarky are probably very bad. Their longer term effects are more difficult to predict for a very big country like China.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  236. @Morton's toes
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never
    Bloomberg 5 July

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

    Replies: @Passer by

    I personally tweeted on their Twitter account that the article is biased. For example it sees possible negative scenarios only for China, but not for the US. For example that economic crisis may happen in China, but not in the US. This is one sided, an economic crisis may happen in the US too, actually they regularly happen. They did not mention the issues with US debt, only the chinese one, or the issues with US birth rate drops, only the chinese ones.

    • Agree: Xi-Jinping
  237. @Pericles
    @Passer by


    And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average.

     

    We nice people in Sweeeden boosted our PISA results last time around by quietly excluding low-quality migrants, by the way.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

    I know quote a few countries also exclude testing from the mentally challenged.

    Here in America, our great white women teachers have determined that is inequitable.

    On the other hand, it’s probably more accurate to count how many mentally challenged and low-quality people actually exist within a country as a whole. Then again, maybe testing only O-Ring populations is the thing that matters.

  238. A lot of past human progress was based on the domestication of animals. The nations with more species allied under their yoke were more advanced and came to dominate the others.

    In this spirit, I propose a new scifi idea: What if we modified animals so that their vocalizations were not politically correct. So they could say the things that people were afraid to say. Just simple words, to defeat poz.

    During WW2, there were plans to use bombers to deploy bats with incendiaries on them to roost under the eaves of Japanese buildings. In a similar vein, what if we dropped pigeons onto cities, that would outbreed their fellows? Pigeons that would coo “nigga!”

    [MORE]
    War Against the Sparrows? Would PETA allow it? But, anyway, what about cows in India mooing “Nigga!”

  239. @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    According to the link there are 36 %.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00652/clear-gender-gap-for-japan%E2%80%99s-doctors.html

    Mostly concentrated in low pay areas.

    And there are limits to the view "things must be the same everywhere", or "people are identical".

    If you look at Asians living in the US, you will notice bigger gender pay gap than other groups, fewer asian women attending University, and higher level at stay at home mothers. Along with low divorce rates. So if asians in the US itself are less gender equal, i do not expect much coming from Japan.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    10%, 20%, 36%. This is how it has moved over only a short period of time. It isn’t hard to extrapolate out from that. Japan is on exactly the same trend line as the US, just 20 years behind. You can give any explanation you want, but the trend line still trends, and there is no sign of it halting or reversing. I am not making any value judgements, I am just acknowledging reality.

    If you look at Asians living in the US, you will notice bigger gender pay gap than other groups, fewer asian women attending University, and higher level at stay at home mothers.

    Divorce rates are confused by socio-economic status, but, in other areas, those stats are just as US white ones were 20 years ago.

    The direction of travel is extremely obvious.

    It is also obvious that almost no woman is attracted to a political programme which sees them discriminated against at work. Would even you be able to exercise such discrimination in the face of mildly sustained female resistance? Would anyone on this site? Is the only reason they don’t beat their wives and girlfriends because those women obey their every whim, or because they are worried about the police? Would they bar their daughters and sisters from medical school, sternly admonishing them through their tears, that it was for the good of society? I doubt it. It is all just a bunch of pretense and a silly power fantasy, though broken, antisocial exceptions do exist.

    Once they stop pretending, they will be able to see clearly why societies are trending in this direction. It isn’t because of media or some other facile placeholder, it is because people are adapting to the exigencies of life, as mediated by technological progress and the subsequent complexification of society. They may even see that this is a good thing, in as much as anything is good, because it is allowing people to answer their own questions. Good luck with standing on the shoreline and demanding that this tide won’t come in!

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Actually it looks like female doctors in Japan were capped to around 36 %, if you look at persons passing the medical practitioner exam.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00261/too-few-female-doctors-japan-ranks-last-among-oecd-nations.html

    As for whether people in the US are the same, i'm not sure about that. Blacks for example have the most women per group graduating Uni in the US, more than whites, even though they have been living from a long time in the US.

    I'v seen aptitude tests of blacks (ASVAB) from the 70s and from recent times too and they consistently have smaller gender gaps than whites.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  240. @Xi-Jinping
    @Passer by

    You are making one crucial assumption that needs to be examined - that the US will remain intact as it is now. The uncentralized nature (ie each State is semi-autonomous) of the USA where each "State" is essentially its own country with a unified currency and protected by a central government, means that if the US economy declines, stops being first,' its productivity falls, has too many people of a certain ethnicity (say Latinos) concentrated in one place - it can so happen that States begin to remember historical grievances or suddenly "discover" a new identity (like Ukraine or the provinces of the Roman Empire) that is suddenly at odds with the rest of the US and may attempt secession - especially if the power of the Feds weaken, some governors may figure it will be better for them if they where the President of their own country.

    This often happens to States/Empires that begin an (even modest) economic decline. This happened to Rome, Britain and USSR. It doesnt usually happen to relatively homogenous states, but the US is not homogenous and will become less so over time. Moreover the semi-autonomous nature of its State system seems like it would lend itself well to splintering. A splintering will ruin any projections of econokic growth.

    So do you think its likely the US will remain intact in its current State or splinter based on ethnic, economic or Racial lines?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Passer by

    I think that there is political risk for the US and i mentioned that in the comments. I don’t know if it will happen. Sometimes it all looks calm, until someone gets killed, or some attrocity happens, and then all hell breaks loose. This is how internal conflicts often start.

  241. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    10%, 20%, 36%. This is how it has moved over only a short period of time. It isn't hard to extrapolate out from that. Japan is on exactly the same trend line as the US, just 20 years behind. You can give any explanation you want, but the trend line still trends, and there is no sign of it halting or reversing. I am not making any value judgements, I am just acknowledging reality.


    If you look at Asians living in the US, you will notice bigger gender pay gap than other groups, fewer asian women attending University, and higher level at stay at home mothers.
     
    Divorce rates are confused by socio-economic status, but, in other areas, those stats are just as US white ones were 20 years ago.

    The direction of travel is extremely obvious.

    It is also obvious that almost no woman is attracted to a political programme which sees them discriminated against at work. Would even you be able to exercise such discrimination in the face of mildly sustained female resistance? Would anyone on this site? Is the only reason they don't beat their wives and girlfriends because those women obey their every whim, or because they are worried about the police? Would they bar their daughters and sisters from medical school, sternly admonishing them through their tears, that it was for the good of society? I doubt it. It is all just a bunch of pretense and a silly power fantasy, though broken, antisocial exceptions do exist.

    Once they stop pretending, they will be able to see clearly why societies are trending in this direction. It isn't because of media or some other facile placeholder, it is because people are adapting to the exigencies of life, as mediated by technological progress and the subsequent complexification of society. They may even see that this is a good thing, in as much as anything is good, because it is allowing people to answer their own questions. Good luck with standing on the shoreline and demanding that this tide won't come in!

    Replies: @Passer by

    Actually it looks like female doctors in Japan were capped to around 36 %, if you look at persons passing the medical practitioner exam.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00261/too-few-female-doctors-japan-ranks-last-among-oecd-nations.html

    As for whether people in the US are the same, i’m not sure about that. Blacks for example have the most women per group graduating Uni in the US, more than whites, even though they have been living from a long time in the US.

    I’v seen aptitude tests of blacks (ASVAB) from the 70s and from recent times too and they consistently have smaller gender gaps than whites.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    There was capping, but as soon as there was mild sustained resistance to the capping, that capping melted away.

    We see this time and time again. Don't get fooled by the progressives' self-glorifying narrative of overcoming tremendous obstacles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/women-outperform-men-after-japan-medical-school-stops-rigging-exam-scores


    As for whether people in the US are the same, i’m not sure about that. Blacks for example have the most women per group graduating Uni in the US, more than whites, even though they have been living from a long time in the US.
     
    I did not mean to imply that it was living in the US that was important, but rather length of time engaging as individuals and families within modern, complex societies. This is not the only factor, so it does not perfectly predict every wrinkle in every group, but all groups are on the same trend line.

    Replies: @Passer by

  242. @silviosilver
    @Mr. Hack

    Not bad.

    Are you a Chicago fan? I was looking up some old songs on YT and came across this Russian cover band. Damn, pretty good, Chicago themselves gave them an 'official' stamp of approval.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVXUlV86bAM

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack

    Wow! Really excellent renditions of Chicago’s music. Pop music from the 1970’s was so great, thanks for this trip down memory lane. And Xenia, what a beautiful and talented singer. Her rendition of the Rolling Stones “I can’t get no satisfaction” was perhaps the best that I’ve ever heard. And her beautiful Slavic good looks…who can resist her charms?

    Thank you!

  243. @Xi-Jinping
    @Yellowface Anon

    I agree that federal power will go. Many of the multinational corporations in the US (especially large ones) will either move overseas or collapse (moving overseas is more likely.

    I think that although the dollar may stay as the de facto currency, eventually each seceded state will develop its own currency to "legitimize" the rule of their new government. Also, a "specialization" and alliance of states will form to be able to acquire food (as many of the costal cities are not self sufficient.

    But this is getting deeply into theory land - i may be wrong about my thesis and US central power is stronger than i thought - but it seems like the "State" system along with the social tensions in the US is a ripe combination for splintering (I know i'd want to be my own boss if i was the governor of a State and the opportunity to secede aros, i'd take it).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    The US elite have almost never been more united.

    Imagine having it so easy as rulers that you can convince yourself that January 6th was an insurgency, and use it as a partisan tool for intra-elite squabbling.

    The collapse of the USSR wasn’t preceded by them theatrically failing over every minor turbulence, it was preceded by them having to pretend that there was no turbulence, because there was nothing they could do about it.

    History is weird and unpredictable, but, if it weren’t for the fact that 1.4 billion people in China finally stopped starving themselves to death, the US would be the undisputed global hegemon for the next few centuries. It is very far from a state of collapse, which is incredibly rare, even if there will be inevitable tough times, as there always are in human travails.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
  244. @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Actually it looks like female doctors in Japan were capped to around 36 %, if you look at persons passing the medical practitioner exam.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00261/too-few-female-doctors-japan-ranks-last-among-oecd-nations.html

    As for whether people in the US are the same, i'm not sure about that. Blacks for example have the most women per group graduating Uni in the US, more than whites, even though they have been living from a long time in the US.

    I'v seen aptitude tests of blacks (ASVAB) from the 70s and from recent times too and they consistently have smaller gender gaps than whites.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    There was capping, but as soon as there was mild sustained resistance to the capping, that capping melted away.

    We see this time and time again. Don’t get fooled by the progressives’ self-glorifying narrative of overcoming tremendous obstacles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/women-outperform-men-after-japan-medical-school-stops-rigging-exam-scores

    As for whether people in the US are the same, i’m not sure about that. Blacks for example have the most women per group graduating Uni in the US, more than whites, even though they have been living from a long time in the US.

    I did not mean to imply that it was living in the US that was important, but rather length of time engaging as individuals and families within modern, complex societies. This is not the only factor, so it does not perfectly predict every wrinkle in every group, but all groups are on the same trend line.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    They only mentioned "several" medical schools doing this. There are 79 medical schools in Japan. Increasing the percentage by 10 percent in several schools does not change much.

    If you look at China's female labour force participation rate it actually dropped in recent years, after being pretty high in the past, so in this life there is no guarantee for anything, unless its death and taxes.

    When it happens, then we can talk about it.


    but all groups are on the same trend line.
     
    Well, apparently blacks and whites in the US are not on the same trend line as gender gap in aptitude tests persists for whites, but not for blacks.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  245. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.
     
    There's still a lot who stay in the US, and there's plenty of cognitively elite people in lots of other countries.

    Furthermore, the US is exciting and fun. Staying in China is safe and homely.

    Hayek got it right when he pointed out that modern economies run on information. The US is great at this, and has positioned itself extremely well to take advantage of it in the future.

    Take computer games. I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with. This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market. Chinese products simply can't be as interesting to most other places - they can't even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

    This means, that in many different ways, China is cut off from global information streams, from which the highest level of development is drunk, while the US is the country which all of them actually flow through.

    I appreciate that the above point is not very fleshed out, but it is only just coalescing as a clear image in my head. I will reflect on it.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Jaakko Raipala, @Dmitry

    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has “public wealth, private modesty” and “low risk, low reward. .

    America’s defaults result contribute to the sense it is a very dysfunctional, dystopian, seeming land, for its ordinary and low income population – but for skilled labour, in profitable professions, America’s “high risk, high reward” setting can create a very attractive immigration package.

    For people who are skilled in their profession, then the rewards can be highest in the US labour market, and the marginal taxes won’t remove most of your income in the higher tax bands either.

    If you wanted a more normal seeming, developed country, that approximates what a developed country should look like, then you would try to go to somewhere like Denmark. But for people who are in profitable skilled professions (which have the most emigration opportunities), then the risk/reward balance is quite favouring to work in the USA, despite all the horror and dystopia the country’s lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.

    Elon Musk is an example of an immigrant who was rewarded by, and also seems to have psychologically internalized, America’s unusual settings. For example, Tesla has refused to develop an electric autobus, because Elon Musk has said that he dislikes public transport, autobuses and train (in America, public buses can be viewed as “for losers”, and this conveniently matches the society’s disinclination to invest a higher proportion of its wealth in publicly accessible goods).

    • Agree: Morton's toes
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Dmitry

    A winning combination then is public wealth, private prosperity; high risk, high reward

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @AP
    @Dmitry

    Your posts often include brilliant insights, but these ideas you often share are ridiculous.


    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.
     
    Most of America is not San Francisco.

    despite all the horror and dystopia the country’s lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.
     
    "Horror" and "dystopia" maybe describe 10% of America's people, living in certain ghettos or rural trailer parks.

    Almost every American can afford a comfortable automobile, so America does not have good public transportation. OTOH, national parks are spectacular and usually well maintained, and the highway system is usually rather good also.

    America's rural areas and suburbs may be somewhat boring but they are hardly horrible or dystopian.

    Replies: @Morton's toes

    , @utu
    @Dmitry


    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has “public wealth, private modesty” and “low risk, low reward.
     
    This sounds as an accurate insight though AP objects and makes good argument which is seemingly against it. Can both be true?

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry

  246. @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    America has defaults set on "public squalor; private wealth" and "high risk; high reward".

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has "public wealth, private modesty" and "low risk, low reward. .

    America's defaults result contribute to the sense it is a very dysfunctional, dystopian, seeming land, for its ordinary and low income population - but for skilled labour, in profitable professions, America's "high risk, high reward" setting can create a very attractive immigration package.

    For people who are skilled in their profession, then the rewards can be highest in the US labour market, and the marginal taxes won't remove most of your income in the higher tax bands either.

    If you wanted a more normal seeming, developed country, that approximates what a developed country should look like, then you would try to go to somewhere like Denmark. But for people who are in profitable skilled professions (which have the most emigration opportunities), then the risk/reward balance is quite favouring to work in the USA, despite all the horror and dystopia the country's lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.

    Elon Musk is an example of an immigrant who was rewarded by, and also seems to have psychologically internalized, America's unusual settings. For example, Tesla has refused to develop an electric autobus, because Elon Musk has said that he dislikes public transport, autobuses and train (in America, public buses can be viewed as "for losers", and this conveniently matches the society's disinclination to invest a higher proportion of its wealth in publicly accessible goods).

    Replies: @Svevlad, @AP, @utu

    A winning combination then is public wealth, private prosperity; high risk, high reward

    • Agree: Boomthorkell
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Svevlad

    How high you can adjust either or both of the two settings, will be limited by the size of your bank account.

    Although if you just need to make a good impression, there are some "force multipliers" for those of us with the more limited budget.

    One of the things they teach in the introduction course "How to be a postsoviet leader" is that you should heap a lot of your public wealth onto the places that naïve foreigners and important people will see it. Hide your underinvestment and asset stripping of the public spaces, in the parts of the country where only the local people will ever live or visit, like you're going to the zoom meeting with a suit jacket, expensive shirt, tie and pajama bottoms.

  247. @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh


    a difference between say Kyoani’s and UFOtable’s work, etc; its possible that Chinese animators will eventually have a more distinctive style as well
     
    You're talking about animes which China still haven't been able to crack into the global (even Japanese) market (except as outsourcing). Chinese artists are much more specialized in standalone and game art, and in that regard it's currently much closer to the average Japanese style, tho still having enough original variations. The obessessoon with white hair is just a distinctive trait that's based on relatively generic designs

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    No, the Kiana-like designs are intentional homages: there’s shared talent between Punishing Gray Raven and Honkai, etc.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    Do you get what I mean? Shirakami Fubuki was a big hit in China too, partly because of the white hair (until Hololive was discredited because of the whole Taiwan faux pas)

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  248. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    There was capping, but as soon as there was mild sustained resistance to the capping, that capping melted away.

    We see this time and time again. Don't get fooled by the progressives' self-glorifying narrative of overcoming tremendous obstacles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/women-outperform-men-after-japan-medical-school-stops-rigging-exam-scores


    As for whether people in the US are the same, i’m not sure about that. Blacks for example have the most women per group graduating Uni in the US, more than whites, even though they have been living from a long time in the US.
     
    I did not mean to imply that it was living in the US that was important, but rather length of time engaging as individuals and families within modern, complex societies. This is not the only factor, so it does not perfectly predict every wrinkle in every group, but all groups are on the same trend line.

    Replies: @Passer by

    They only mentioned “several” medical schools doing this. There are 79 medical schools in Japan. Increasing the percentage by 10 percent in several schools does not change much.

    If you look at China’s female labour force participation rate it actually dropped in recent years, after being pretty high in the past, so in this life there is no guarantee for anything, unless its death and taxes.

    When it happens, then we can talk about it.

    but all groups are on the same trend line.

    Well, apparently blacks and whites in the US are not on the same trend line as gender gap in aptitude tests persists for whites, but not for blacks.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by


    If you look at China’s female labour force participation rate it actually dropped in recent years, after being pretty high in the past, so in this life there is no guarantee for anything, unless its death and taxes.
     
    As they leave the sweatshops!

    China is so big that it is in multiple stages of economic development at the same time.

    The vast majority of woman worked all throughout history, as they had to, their families were not rich. What's new is women rising in the professions, but they have always toiled. This is happening in China too. If anything, outside of politics, it seems to be sped up there, perhaps because of the one child policy.

    Well, apparently blacks and whites in the US are not on the same trend line as gender gap in aptitude tests persists for whites, but not for blacks.
     
    The gap is tiny and the gap between the gaps is tiny. Neither of these change the fact that individual women become more economically independent as economic growth progresses.

    We are all much more a product of our times than we are our race. That doesn't preclude genetic differences, but it is pretty obvious when you think about it.

    They only mentioned “several” medical schools doing this. There are 79 medical schools in Japan. Increasing the percentage by 10 percent in several schools does not change much.
     
    Yet removing those hidden, informal barriers was like pushing on an open door, and the female proportion of doctors has risen more than 3 times over in a lifetime. You're right that neither of us can guarantee the future, but I'd place my politics is line with those heavy trends if I wanted them to be successful.

    Replies: @Passer by

  249. @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    They only mentioned "several" medical schools doing this. There are 79 medical schools in Japan. Increasing the percentage by 10 percent in several schools does not change much.

    If you look at China's female labour force participation rate it actually dropped in recent years, after being pretty high in the past, so in this life there is no guarantee for anything, unless its death and taxes.

    When it happens, then we can talk about it.


    but all groups are on the same trend line.
     
    Well, apparently blacks and whites in the US are not on the same trend line as gender gap in aptitude tests persists for whites, but not for blacks.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    If you look at China’s female labour force participation rate it actually dropped in recent years, after being pretty high in the past, so in this life there is no guarantee for anything, unless its death and taxes.

    As they leave the sweatshops!

    China is so big that it is in multiple stages of economic development at the same time.

    The vast majority of woman worked all throughout history, as they had to, their families were not rich. What’s new is women rising in the professions, but they have always toiled. This is happening in China too. If anything, outside of politics, it seems to be sped up there, perhaps because of the one child policy.

    Well, apparently blacks and whites in the US are not on the same trend line as gender gap in aptitude tests persists for whites, but not for blacks.

    The gap is tiny and the gap between the gaps is tiny. Neither of these change the fact that individual women become more economically independent as economic growth progresses.

    We are all much more a product of our times than we are our race. That doesn’t preclude genetic differences, but it is pretty obvious when you think about it.

    They only mentioned “several” medical schools doing this. There are 79 medical schools in Japan. Increasing the percentage by 10 percent in several schools does not change much.

    Yet removing those hidden, informal barriers was like pushing on an open door, and the female proportion of doctors has risen more than 3 times over in a lifetime. You’re right that neither of us can guarantee the future, but I’d place my politics is line with those heavy trends if I wanted them to be successful.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    No one says that that the number of women in various professions did not increase, but i disagree with the view that everything will be the same in all countries, or between all groups.

    Turn arounds happen in modern times too, as the chinese example with dropping female labor force participation shows, or the examples i have seen in Russia, where the number of female engineers declined significantly compared to Soviet times, with continued downward trend at that. I also saw other sources where the number of women is STEM in Russia started declining again.

    https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Decline-of-Women-in-Russian-Engineering-Barabanova-Sanger/59a1a8321c6cfe414cf222074e79e00b7b43de4a


    Yet removing those hidden, informal barriers was like pushing on an open door, and the female proportion of doctors has risen more than 3 times over in a lifetime.
     
    And there is no guarantee that the number of women working, or being in certain profession, will not drop again, as the chinese or russian examples show.

    Can you imagine yourself boasting about the rise of russian female engineers in the 80s only to be shocked by the turn around 20 years later? Think about it.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  250. Russia will soon unveil its own version of the JSF at MAKS21.

    https://theaviationist.com/2021/07/15/russia-checkmate/

    Always happy to see a new advanced fighter.A relatively rare treat in the post cold war world

    (As opposed to static displays and artists impressions which are a dime a dozen)

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Vishnugupta

    It's pretty clear it's just a mockup in the newest video released. I guess that's to be expected but considering the marketing I felt like there was a chance they had put together a flying prototype.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyNCLpc4Bqs

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

  251. Look, look, look, women in the workplace is merely a symptom of the fact that people now need two wages to pay for a family – which is unacceptable. It forces the woman between either working and never reproducing, or reproducing and overloading herself by having both to work, and take care of the kids, and she can never do it herself, so the father jumps in too, so he also gets more stress. Granted, after pregnancy a woman can work again, the father can take care of the kid too, but there’s some things he just can’t do (remember: kids need to be nursed optimally to age 2!!!).

    It’s not a question of women should be allowed to work, it’s a question of why do women have to work, at least in the manner of today. It literally interferes with the child’s health.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Svevlad


    It’s not a question of women should be allowed to work, it’s a question of why do women have to work, at least in the manner of today.
     
    It's really a question of how much work women should do, and how much work they want to do. My impression (based purely on anecdotal evidence) is that most women want to work but that most would prefer to work shorter hours than they're working at the moment.

    So the real problem is women being pressured (by both social and economic pressure) to work full-time when they'd prefer not to, and if they do work part-time being pressured to work longer hours than they really want to.

    And the pressure to work longer hours seems to be increasing.

    Of course it's also possible that quite a few men would prefer to work shorter hours!

    Replies: @silviosilver

  252. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    America has defaults set on "public squalor; private wealth" and "high risk; high reward".

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has "public wealth, private modesty" and "low risk, low reward. .

    America's defaults result contribute to the sense it is a very dysfunctional, dystopian, seeming land, for its ordinary and low income population - but for skilled labour, in profitable professions, America's "high risk, high reward" setting can create a very attractive immigration package.

    For people who are skilled in their profession, then the rewards can be highest in the US labour market, and the marginal taxes won't remove most of your income in the higher tax bands either.

    If you wanted a more normal seeming, developed country, that approximates what a developed country should look like, then you would try to go to somewhere like Denmark. But for people who are in profitable skilled professions (which have the most emigration opportunities), then the risk/reward balance is quite favouring to work in the USA, despite all the horror and dystopia the country's lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.

    Elon Musk is an example of an immigrant who was rewarded by, and also seems to have psychologically internalized, America's unusual settings. For example, Tesla has refused to develop an electric autobus, because Elon Musk has said that he dislikes public transport, autobuses and train (in America, public buses can be viewed as "for losers", and this conveniently matches the society's disinclination to invest a higher proportion of its wealth in publicly accessible goods).

    Replies: @Svevlad, @AP, @utu

    Your posts often include brilliant insights, but these ideas you often share are ridiculous.

    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.

    Most of America is not San Francisco.

    despite all the horror and dystopia the country’s lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.

    “Horror” and “dystopia” maybe describe 10% of America’s people, living in certain ghettos or rural trailer parks.

    Almost every American can afford a comfortable automobile, so America does not have good public transportation. OTOH, national parks are spectacular and usually well maintained, and the highway system is usually rather good also.

    America’s rural areas and suburbs may be somewhat boring but they are hardly horrible or dystopian.

    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @AP

    I have just driven San Francisco - Denver. The devastation of opiate abuse and homelessness is evident the entire distance when you recognize it although San Francisco definitely has a near monopoly on junkies shooting up on the sidewalk in the middle of the day.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  253. AP says:
    @Xi-Jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa


    No, you hate your emotionality. It makes you feel scared
     
    On the contrary I recognize my own emotions and deal with them as they come. However I do not show them to wonen bc women despise emotionality in men. If you had any experience with women, youd know that.


    We've already established that you are not qualified to speak of women bc you did not poast bitches.

    Its like in a Roman court where veterans will expose the scars on their chest to show they always faced the enemy and never ran. This gave their words more gravity as they proved their word through deed. You did not prove your word through deed whereas I did. Which means that you are not qualified to speak on the matter bc you dont get bitches.

    Replies: @AP

    Are you autistic, or rather sociopathic?

    It depends on whether you were truthful about your claims about your personal life. If you weren’t, then your obvious cluelessness about women suggests autism. You would do well to learn from your interlocutor.

    If you were truthful, then sociopathy comes into play.

    But Triteleia really manipulated you well. That must burn 🙂

    • Thanks: Triteleia Laxa
    • Troll: Xi-jinping
    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
    @AP

    I poasted a pic to confirm truth of my words.


    But Triteleia really manipulated you well. That must burn 🙂
     
    LOL. Whenever someone goes 'you go first' it becomes obvious they won't do it (because they have nothing to present - because if they did they would have poasted without trying to turn it over to the other person).

    The reason I did it was two fold
    1. To humiliate Triteleia - because by not poasting he merely shows like he talks a big game but has nothing to show for it.

    2. To prove what I say is true.

    So no. Triteleia is just trying to cope with the fact that he doesn't get laid. lol

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  254. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by


    If you look at China’s female labour force participation rate it actually dropped in recent years, after being pretty high in the past, so in this life there is no guarantee for anything, unless its death and taxes.
     
    As they leave the sweatshops!

    China is so big that it is in multiple stages of economic development at the same time.

    The vast majority of woman worked all throughout history, as they had to, their families were not rich. What's new is women rising in the professions, but they have always toiled. This is happening in China too. If anything, outside of politics, it seems to be sped up there, perhaps because of the one child policy.

    Well, apparently blacks and whites in the US are not on the same trend line as gender gap in aptitude tests persists for whites, but not for blacks.
     
    The gap is tiny and the gap between the gaps is tiny. Neither of these change the fact that individual women become more economically independent as economic growth progresses.

    We are all much more a product of our times than we are our race. That doesn't preclude genetic differences, but it is pretty obvious when you think about it.

    They only mentioned “several” medical schools doing this. There are 79 medical schools in Japan. Increasing the percentage by 10 percent in several schools does not change much.
     
    Yet removing those hidden, informal barriers was like pushing on an open door, and the female proportion of doctors has risen more than 3 times over in a lifetime. You're right that neither of us can guarantee the future, but I'd place my politics is line with those heavy trends if I wanted them to be successful.

    Replies: @Passer by

    No one says that that the number of women in various professions did not increase, but i disagree with the view that everything will be the same in all countries, or between all groups.

    Turn arounds happen in modern times too, as the chinese example with dropping female labor force participation shows, or the examples i have seen in Russia, where the number of female engineers declined significantly compared to Soviet times, with continued downward trend at that. I also saw other sources where the number of women is STEM in Russia started declining again.

    https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Decline-of-Women-in-Russian-Engineering-Barabanova-Sanger/59a1a8321c6cfe414cf222074e79e00b7b43de4a

    Yet removing those hidden, informal barriers was like pushing on an open door, and the female proportion of doctors has risen more than 3 times over in a lifetime.

    And there is no guarantee that the number of women working, or being in certain profession, will not drop again, as the chinese or russian examples show.

    Can you imagine yourself boasting about the rise of russian female engineers in the 80s only to be shocked by the turn around 20 years later? Think about it.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    I am not boasting of anything. I am just saying that greater economic development leads to greater economic independence for women.

    This manifests in women being able to get more professional jobs and the delegitimisation of "traditionalist" political programmes when it comes to gender.

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.

    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women's comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

    Replies: @Passer by, @Daniel Chieh, @Coconuts, @Xi-jinping

  255. @Vishnugupta
    Russia will soon unveil its own version of the JSF at MAKS21.

    https://theaviationist.com/2021/07/15/russia-checkmate/

    Always happy to see a new advanced fighter.A relatively rare treat in the post cold war world

    (As opposed to static displays and artists impressions which are a dime a dozen)

    Replies: @Shortsword

    It’s pretty clear it’s just a mockup in the newest video released. I guess that’s to be expected but considering the marketing I felt like there was a chance they had put together a flying prototype.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Shortsword

    That is most unfortunate.

    I thought it would be a proper prototype with commonality with the PAK FA in terms of Type 30 engine and a scaled down AESA radar.

    If this is one of those 1990s type show everyone a mock up and hope someone finances the development type of 'unveiling' it is a dead on arrival.

    This sort of reminded me of a stealth fighter concept of Yakolev in the late 1990s with elements of the Mig LFI concept also from that era.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  256. @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    No one says that that the number of women in various professions did not increase, but i disagree with the view that everything will be the same in all countries, or between all groups.

    Turn arounds happen in modern times too, as the chinese example with dropping female labor force participation shows, or the examples i have seen in Russia, where the number of female engineers declined significantly compared to Soviet times, with continued downward trend at that. I also saw other sources where the number of women is STEM in Russia started declining again.

    https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Decline-of-Women-in-Russian-Engineering-Barabanova-Sanger/59a1a8321c6cfe414cf222074e79e00b7b43de4a


    Yet removing those hidden, informal barriers was like pushing on an open door, and the female proportion of doctors has risen more than 3 times over in a lifetime.
     
    And there is no guarantee that the number of women working, or being in certain profession, will not drop again, as the chinese or russian examples show.

    Can you imagine yourself boasting about the rise of russian female engineers in the 80s only to be shocked by the turn around 20 years later? Think about it.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I am not boasting of anything. I am just saying that greater economic development leads to greater economic independence for women.

    This manifests in women being able to get more professional jobs and the delegitimisation of “traditionalist” political programmes when it comes to gender.

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.

    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women’s comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    And i'm saying that the situation with female labour force or female representation in certain profession depends on country.

    For example, if you are living in China, you will notice fewer women working compared to the past, contrary to your assumptions, while if you live in Russia, you will notice big drop of women in the engineering profession, compared to the past. Or that fewer women are working, compared to the Soviet past.

    So things are not so simple and the system depends on where you live.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women’s comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

     

    I disagree with you on many things, but most of it boring and repetitive. I think the most interesting thing is your idea that you support progressive aims, but do not think that they need to demonstrate the malaise of progress measures.

    That seems really fantastical to me. The notion, for example, that women basically wanted these programs for economic independence and thus it would be possible to campaign against immigration by recruiting a female workforce as political supporters misses that originally, feminism had what would be seen as a conservative push for the "family wage" which as seen as having a large enough wage for the male breadwinners to support their families, with the women supporting it being mostly wives. So it was a pro-female force, but not necessarily in the way you would envision it.

    And of course, we know what happened to that, with female employment later sold as "empowerment" and "independence", both memes which you seem to have bought into yourself. That's fine, they may even be true: but what's important is to note that is that there's a convergent evolution toward the same kind of measures whenever generally progressive aims such as equity get sought for. Well, mostly it ends up in whatever creates more money, which is what can feed more politics, which then goes and advertises itself effectively.

    Ultimately, the same will be true of any effort that tries to suggest that its important to defend female work rights from immigrants, because in any generally progressive society, willingness to absorb immigration is likely to produce wealth for companies who can then externalize their costs to society, much like an employed female workforce produces profits that has costs which are externalized against society. What "women want" is only mildly relevant to this, since its unlikely that women will be an unified bloc against immigration.

    Again, convergent evolution. Its a strange and amusing thing that, for example, even wildly different evolutionary paths end up on using the same strategies: birds have intelligence and come from dinosaurs, yet the most intelligent birds have a neocortex just like primates and humans. Plants and animals are even further apart, but both have settled upon glutathione as a signaling component.

    I don't think you can divorce progressive aims from progressive strategies, problems, and other errata. Besides according for various cultural and biological forces, you'll basically get the same things everywhere.

    Replies: @AP, @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Coconuts
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.
     
    They don't at present but this kind of thing will probably be something to look out for in white Western populations some decades, maybe two, maybe three or four, down the line. Feminism seems to be one of those movements whose success will end up undermining its moral standing and the moral influence it can exert on men. It also looks like it may end up connected with appreciable decline, in numbers and in power, of the population groups that originally gave rise to it.

    I think for the short term at least women will continue to rise in power among Western Europeans, then this will go too far, the memory of serious patriarchy will be too far in the past, and some counter movement, elements of which can be seen in a raw early form in things like the Red Pill and Black Pill, will emerge.

    This may or may not, depending on the state of the West by that point, influence how women in other parts of the world make use of their growing economic freedom.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Xi-jinping
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I am not boasting of anything. I am just saying that greater economic development leads to greater economic independence for women.
     
    There is no relation between 'greater economic development' and breakdown of traditional gender roles.

    One does not preclude the other. It just so happens that with greater economic development you also get more propaganda to get women into the workforce (in capitalism - to increase the labor pool and reduce wages; in communism - to garner maximal public support).

    So again, it has everything to do with propaganda.

    And as we both know - you don't get women, so you don't know their nature and how easily manipulated they can be.

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.
     
    Which is why these politics must not be blatant. And why I said it needs to be in the form of media.

    Feminism used to be an entirely marginal position - and women in the 50's in America would rightfully ask, "Why would I want to go and work and lose the great deal I currently have?", but then there was a concerted effort of the CIA together with corporate donors to run a propaganda campaign that resulted in the Sexual Revolution of the 60's.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @sher singh, @dfordoom

  257. Will AK’s breeders be more sexually dimorphic, or less so?

    I would lean towards less so. Some say Amish women have plainer faces, which makes me think that they are less dimorphic. Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.

    Wonder if we can estimate dimorphism over epochs by using ancient DNA.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @songbird


    Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.
     
    Are they really less dimorphic? Their bodies look otherwise to me.

    I don't know how you measure this stuff, as there are so many factors, but my perceptions differ from yours.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @songbird

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @songbird

    Its hard to say, honestly. I think it'll depend on the environment.

    If it is indeed basically a safe and essentially noncompetitive environment, then Laxa's notion of both parents leaning toward caregiving and feminine traits is likely. There's less reason for the "complementary unit" or maybe not for masculine traits, so reduced dimorphism is entirely logical.

    If it is not so, and competitiveness is emphasized, then you would probably have more dimorphic breeders, since much more effort must be mainlined toward both masculine traits for competitiveness and violence, and feminine traits toward caregiving. This is also added onto since in such a society, usually female dependency is increased and thus sexual selection is stronger with a lower male percentage of population(from violent deaths).

    Africans are actually pretty dimorphic despite having a lot of female independence in some areas: even with a lot of female economic independence is a norm, males compete heavily with polygyny being common. Since the male is not needed to nor is expected to assist with childcare, they are selected for their sexual traits.

    Replies: @songbird

  258. @songbird
    Will AK's breeders be more sexually dimorphic, or less so?

    I would lean towards less so. Some say Amish women have plainer faces, which makes me think that they are less dimorphic. Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.

    Wonder if we can estimate dimorphism over epochs by using ancient DNA.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

    Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.

    Are they really less dimorphic? Their bodies look otherwise to me.

    I don’t know how you measure this stuff, as there are so many factors, but my perceptions differ from yours.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I'd guess that AK's breeders would be more feminine on both sides. Now that parenthood is a choice, it seems likely that both mothers and fathers will towards traditionally feminine traits. Whether that reflects in their looks or not, is such a big and interesting topic.

    Replies: @utu, @Coconuts

    , @songbird
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Well, I haven't looked into the lit. But I would say so, going by facial pics, when you ignore their dress and the fact that their women have gone through more pregnancies/their men are more active. Might be due to founder effect, though.

    Rarely, I have seen women with very plain faces that I thought had beautiful bodies, so based on that, I would suppose that that there is a potential for divergence based on face or body. Though I assume a general linkage between most traits, including mental.

    You bring up a good point, that the sexes can move independently of each other. Though I believe it has always been towards a mean and never away, at least based on skeletons and long time scales.

  259. @Triteleia Laxa
    @songbird


    Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.
     
    Are they really less dimorphic? Their bodies look otherwise to me.

    I don't know how you measure this stuff, as there are so many factors, but my perceptions differ from yours.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @songbird

    I’d guess that AK’s breeders would be more feminine on both sides. Now that parenthood is a choice, it seems likely that both mothers and fathers will towards traditionally feminine traits. Whether that reflects in their looks or not, is such a big and interesting topic.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Demanding TFR=2 from women is unfair. In female only society TFR=1 is enough.

    , @Coconuts
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Could there be some connection to testosterone levels and success as a breeder? If T levels are too low in men they have trouble having children and if they are too low in women they may fear the risks and burdens involved with having children.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  260. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I'd guess that AK's breeders would be more feminine on both sides. Now that parenthood is a choice, it seems likely that both mothers and fathers will towards traditionally feminine traits. Whether that reflects in their looks or not, is such a big and interesting topic.

    Replies: @utu, @Coconuts

    Demanding TFR=2 from women is unfair. In female only society TFR=1 is enough.

    • LOL: Triteleia Laxa
  261. @Shortsword
    @Vishnugupta

    It's pretty clear it's just a mockup in the newest video released. I guess that's to be expected but considering the marketing I felt like there was a chance they had put together a flying prototype.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyNCLpc4Bqs

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    That is most unfortunate.

    I thought it would be a proper prototype with commonality with the PAK FA in terms of Type 30 engine and a scaled down AESA radar.

    If this is one of those 1990s type show everyone a mock up and hope someone finances the development type of ‘unveiling’ it is a dead on arrival.

    This sort of reminded me of a stealth fighter concept of Yakolev in the late 1990s with elements of the Mig LFI concept also from that era.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Vishnugupta

    Actually it’s a proper plane with the components assembled, but none of it is tested and so they estimated first flight to happen in 2023. It’s a prototype, and they have explicitly stated that this specific plane is going to fly at some point. Given how much sense it does make for Russia to produce it (both for exports and for the Russian Air Force) I doubt it will be canceled. At least it has a decent chance of serial production by 2030.

    The engine was probably still the old AL-41F1, but by the time it enters production (and perhaps already the first flight) it’s going to be the Izdeliye 30.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @Vishnugupta

  262. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    I am not boasting of anything. I am just saying that greater economic development leads to greater economic independence for women.

    This manifests in women being able to get more professional jobs and the delegitimisation of "traditionalist" political programmes when it comes to gender.

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.

    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women's comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

    Replies: @Passer by, @Daniel Chieh, @Coconuts, @Xi-jinping

    And i’m saying that the situation with female labour force or female representation in certain profession depends on country.

    For example, if you are living in China, you will notice fewer women working compared to the past, contrary to your assumptions, while if you live in Russia, you will notice big drop of women in the engineering profession, compared to the past. Or that fewer women are working, compared to the Soviet past.

    So things are not so simple and the system depends on where you live.

    • Thanks: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Passer by

    As Iofiel noted, and I was impying to Laxa in a previous conversation, Russia is indeed an excellent example of a modern country that wildly changed their notion of female employment, and accordingly status, though of course, she's the typical whiny feminist:

    https://slate.com/human-interest/2010/07/real-housewives-of-moscow.html


    The problem for other Russian women is that with the image of the mother-comrade gone, these two images have replaced it: The corrupt businesswoman a la Baturina, or the lux dame who expresses her femininity by not working. Both are entirely reliant on their husbands’ support
     
    Notably it hasn't really increased TFR. But at least life is more pleasant.

    And yes, China has had a steady and positive decline in female participation in politics:

    https://qz.com/1107385/china-female-politician-a-lone-female-sun-chunlan-sits-at-the-top-of-chinas-communist-party/

    In the Central Committee of the party, a decision-making body of over 200 members, women are also faring worse under Xi than in previous governments. There were 13 women in the Central Committee in 2007 during the reign of president Hu Jintao. That number just dropped to 10.

    Female politicians are typically placed in less important positions at lower levels, which means that their “CVs look much weaker than that of their male counterparts.”
     
    And of course, they tend to drop out or cease "career-gaining" effectively after motherhood, which I think Xi is increasingly expecting, so while it can sometimes pad a steady number of female Party members, they are kept where they're probably most useful at a local level.
  263. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Passer by
    @china-russia-all-the-way


    Banks have tended to underpredict Chinese growth over the past 20 years.
     
    On the contrary, they were more optimistic about China and some predicted higher growth rates and China overtaking the US by around 2025. Today, these early optimistic views were downgraded to around 2030.

    On South Korea, or Japan, or Taiwan, i often thought about it, but what matters a lot is the system too. SK has americanised economic and political system. NK has another system, and although its the same people, the economic difference is huge. China has its own system. It is unclear if the chinese system will end up as productive as the SK one. Moreover, SK has turned into demographic black hole, with TFR dropping to the lowest in the world, around 0,9, which is going to bring down in the future the SK hard. So let's hope that China does not follow SK, or its reign will be short lived.

    I am going against the banks and predicting 50% or higher instead.
     
    Ok, i will be more than happy if this happens.


    But I think state-by-state comparisons shed some light. Massachusetts is another state that like California vacuums a lot of global talent. It is not as racially diverse as California and has a GDP per capita of 10% higher. That difference could be what California is losing out on. Florida is quite racially diverse. Unlike California or Texas, it doesn’t get as much global talent or produce almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. It is #40 among states by GDP per capita. And it is still 20 years behind California or Texas in racial diversity.
     
    Yeah, but the US as a country vaccums more talent than almost all other countries. You get the bad states, you get the good states, and when you take them all together, all of this contruct - the US, takes more tallent than others. Thus it has higher innovation rate per capita than others.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/noosphere/


    It also makes sense to assume a white/Asian demographic decline from 65% to 50%+ will be a harder hit to the economy than compared to the fall from 80% to 65%.
     
    On this, i agree.

    As this is 80 years away it’s too speculative for me to find as interesting as other subjects being discussed. I also think the Chinese government will intervene if faced with demographics going that badly. That is all I have to say about it.
     
    Ok, but be aware that no developed country in East Asia managed to increase birth rates. Let's hope China makes it.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @reiner Tor

    I would add one last point that greater racial diversity can also drag down growth through voting behavior. Latinos especially like universal healthcare, which is estimated to cost $3 trillion per year. That’s a lot of new taxes that will stunt the economy. And of equal or greater importance to more Latinos to passing universal healthcare is the decline of white Christians. There are still considerable white Christian voters but the group is fast declining in number. Their shrinking numbers along with new Latino voters will pave the way for universal healthcare and a further factor in stagnation of GDP per capita by 2050.

  264. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    I am not boasting of anything. I am just saying that greater economic development leads to greater economic independence for women.

    This manifests in women being able to get more professional jobs and the delegitimisation of "traditionalist" political programmes when it comes to gender.

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.

    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women's comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

    Replies: @Passer by, @Daniel Chieh, @Coconuts, @Xi-jinping

    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women’s comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

    I disagree with you on many things, but most of it boring and repetitive. I think the most interesting thing is your idea that you support progressive aims, but do not think that they need to demonstrate the malaise of progress measures.

    That seems really fantastical to me. The notion, for example, that women basically wanted these programs for economic independence and thus it would be possible to campaign against immigration by recruiting a female workforce as political supporters misses that originally, feminism had what would be seen as a conservative push for the “family wage” which as seen as having a large enough wage for the male breadwinners to support their families, with the women supporting it being mostly wives. So it was a pro-female force, but not necessarily in the way you would envision it.

    And of course, we know what happened to that, with female employment later sold as “empowerment” and “independence”, both memes which you seem to have bought into yourself. That’s fine, they may even be true: but what’s important is to note that is that there’s a convergent evolution toward the same kind of measures whenever generally progressive aims such as equity get sought for. Well, mostly it ends up in whatever creates more money, which is what can feed more politics, which then goes and advertises itself effectively.

    Ultimately, the same will be true of any effort that tries to suggest that its important to defend female work rights from immigrants, because in any generally progressive society, willingness to absorb immigration is likely to produce wealth for companies who can then externalize their costs to society, much like an employed female workforce produces profits that has costs which are externalized against society. What “women want” is only mildly relevant to this, since its unlikely that women will be an unified bloc against immigration.

    Again, convergent evolution. Its a strange and amusing thing that, for example, even wildly different evolutionary paths end up on using the same strategies: birds have intelligence and come from dinosaurs, yet the most intelligent birds have a neocortex just like primates and humans. Plants and animals are even further apart, but both have settled upon glutathione as a signaling component.

    I don’t think you can divorce progressive aims from progressive strategies, problems, and other errata. Besides according for various cultural and biological forces, you’ll basically get the same things everywhere.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Daniel Chieh


    birds have intelligence and come from dinosaurs, yet the most intelligent birds have a neocortex just like primates and humans
     
    Intelligent birds have converged with primates in intelligence but the mechanism is different, they do not have a neocortex like mammals do. In birds, the reptilian dorsal ventricular ridge evolved in complexity to function like the mammalian neocortex.

    It may be more efficient than the mammalian neocortex, but perhaps it has a ceiling.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    This is a complex topic, so I might get a bit lost. I am mostly just going to summarise what I thought I understood that was important in your comment and not answer those points yet; better for me to clarify first.

    One question you seem to be asking me is, if workplace equality and female economic independence were close to irresistible, why would mass immigration not be the same?

    You also seem to add in a suggestion that the underlying motivations for workplace equality might have been equally well-served by a "family wage" provision.

    Also, you seem to imply that "accept one part of progressivism, accept all." I appreciate your points about convergent evolution, but I still think it boils down to this perhaps reductionist statement.

    Finally, I'm confused on your distinction between "progressive aims" and "progressive methods." I can't work out exactly what you mean by each term. I would say political aims, if people are honest, unideological and not trying to argue for advantage, are always some reasonable effort towards more freedom, more tolerance, more security and more space for people to develop. Maybe you think these are "progressive aims" not human ones?

    I'd say "progressive methods" are the myriad policies by which they seek to achieve these "aims". Some have been effective, and some have been completely counter-productive, but humans will never perfectly align their methods to their aims. Most can barely remember what their aims are, often getting wedded to their methods instead. What are your aims for politics?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  265. @inertial
    I fail to see a problem with "Freedom phone". I wouldn't buy one but I don't see what's so sneer-worthy about this idea.

    There is an increasing number of the so-called conservative intellectuals who like to ridicule "rightoids". Hanania is one. Karlin wants to get on that train, too. What's interesting to me is that there is nothing like this on the left. There is a ton of stupid "leftoids", in fact whole demographics of them. But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.

    Re: Bashibuzuk's sci-fi idea. Isn't that basically the premise of Zardoz? There must be hundreds of books written around this idea going back to H.G. Wells's Time Machine. My favorite is the forgotten classic Engine Summer by John Crowley.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Nimrod, @Svidomyatheart

    Why are you even on this site and reading Karlin.

    I would tag your comments as Troll but I dont post here enough. I literally logged in just to post cuz I got triggered.

    Its gonna be used to spy on rightoids

    If you’re cheering for things like “conservative” Fox News(LOL) and Freedom phones then you as a “rightist” or whatever it means already lost.

  266. @Passer by
    @Triteleia Laxa

    And i'm saying that the situation with female labour force or female representation in certain profession depends on country.

    For example, if you are living in China, you will notice fewer women working compared to the past, contrary to your assumptions, while if you live in Russia, you will notice big drop of women in the engineering profession, compared to the past. Or that fewer women are working, compared to the Soviet past.

    So things are not so simple and the system depends on where you live.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    As Iofiel noted, and I was impying to Laxa in a previous conversation, Russia is indeed an excellent example of a modern country that wildly changed their notion of female employment, and accordingly status, though of course, she’s the typical whiny feminist:

    https://slate.com/human-interest/2010/07/real-housewives-of-moscow.html

    The problem for other Russian women is that with the image of the mother-comrade gone, these two images have replaced it: The corrupt businesswoman a la Baturina, or the lux dame who expresses her femininity by not working. Both are entirely reliant on their husbands’ support

    Notably it hasn’t really increased TFR. But at least life is more pleasant.

    And yes, China has had a steady and positive decline in female participation in politics:

    https://qz.com/1107385/china-female-politician-a-lone-female-sun-chunlan-sits-at-the-top-of-chinas-communist-party/

    In the Central Committee of the party, a decision-making body of over 200 members, women are also faring worse under Xi than in previous governments. There were 13 women in the Central Committee in 2007 during the reign of president Hu Jintao. That number just dropped to 10.

    Female politicians are typically placed in less important positions at lower levels, which means that their “CVs look much weaker than that of their male counterparts.”

    And of course, they tend to drop out or cease “career-gaining” effectively after motherhood, which I think Xi is increasingly expecting, so while it can sometimes pad a steady number of female Party members, they are kept where they’re probably most useful at a local level.

  267. @songbird
    Will AK's breeders be more sexually dimorphic, or less so?

    I would lean towards less so. Some say Amish women have plainer faces, which makes me think that they are less dimorphic. Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.

    Wonder if we can estimate dimorphism over epochs by using ancient DNA.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Daniel Chieh

    Its hard to say, honestly. I think it’ll depend on the environment.

    If it is indeed basically a safe and essentially noncompetitive environment, then Laxa’s notion of both parents leaning toward caregiving and feminine traits is likely. There’s less reason for the “complementary unit” or maybe not for masculine traits, so reduced dimorphism is entirely logical.

    If it is not so, and competitiveness is emphasized, then you would probably have more dimorphic breeders, since much more effort must be mainlined toward both masculine traits for competitiveness and violence, and feminine traits toward caregiving. This is also added onto since in such a society, usually female dependency is increased and thus sexual selection is stronger with a lower male percentage of population(from violent deaths).

    Africans are actually pretty dimorphic despite having a lot of female independence in some areas: even with a lot of female economic independence is a norm, males compete heavily with polygyny being common. Since the male is not needed to nor is expected to assist with childcare, they are selected for their sexual traits.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Daniel Chieh

    I wonder whether work from home might influence things, assuming no collapse.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  268. @Triteleia Laxa
    @songbird


    Africans tend to have high TFR and are less dimorphic.
     
    Are they really less dimorphic? Their bodies look otherwise to me.

    I don't know how you measure this stuff, as there are so many factors, but my perceptions differ from yours.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @songbird

    Well, I haven’t looked into the lit. But I would say so, going by facial pics, when you ignore their dress and the fact that their women have gone through more pregnancies/their men are more active. Might be due to founder effect, though.

    Rarely, I have seen women with very plain faces that I thought had beautiful bodies, so based on that, I would suppose that that there is a potential for divergence based on face or body. Though I assume a general linkage between most traits, including mental.

    You bring up a good point, that the sexes can move independently of each other. Though I believe it has always been towards a mean and never away, at least based on skeletons and long time scales.

  269. A couple of links with another perspective on AK’s idea that CRT is a form of white supremacy:

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    The above article references this longer blog post which is quite interesting:

    https://tinkzorg.wordpress.com/2021/07/09/send-them-back-your-fierce-defiance-stamp-upon-the-cursed-alliance/

    • Replies: @AP
    @Coconuts

    CRT and wokeness are an elite instrument by liberal capitalists to divide and control the lower classes. A nice description of this process by this Indian Marxist:

    https://alexeiarora.substack.com/p/why-do-american-elites-love-wokeness

  270. AP says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women’s comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

     

    I disagree with you on many things, but most of it boring and repetitive. I think the most interesting thing is your idea that you support progressive aims, but do not think that they need to demonstrate the malaise of progress measures.

    That seems really fantastical to me. The notion, for example, that women basically wanted these programs for economic independence and thus it would be possible to campaign against immigration by recruiting a female workforce as political supporters misses that originally, feminism had what would be seen as a conservative push for the "family wage" which as seen as having a large enough wage for the male breadwinners to support their families, with the women supporting it being mostly wives. So it was a pro-female force, but not necessarily in the way you would envision it.

    And of course, we know what happened to that, with female employment later sold as "empowerment" and "independence", both memes which you seem to have bought into yourself. That's fine, they may even be true: but what's important is to note that is that there's a convergent evolution toward the same kind of measures whenever generally progressive aims such as equity get sought for. Well, mostly it ends up in whatever creates more money, which is what can feed more politics, which then goes and advertises itself effectively.

    Ultimately, the same will be true of any effort that tries to suggest that its important to defend female work rights from immigrants, because in any generally progressive society, willingness to absorb immigration is likely to produce wealth for companies who can then externalize their costs to society, much like an employed female workforce produces profits that has costs which are externalized against society. What "women want" is only mildly relevant to this, since its unlikely that women will be an unified bloc against immigration.

    Again, convergent evolution. Its a strange and amusing thing that, for example, even wildly different evolutionary paths end up on using the same strategies: birds have intelligence and come from dinosaurs, yet the most intelligent birds have a neocortex just like primates and humans. Plants and animals are even further apart, but both have settled upon glutathione as a signaling component.

    I don't think you can divorce progressive aims from progressive strategies, problems, and other errata. Besides according for various cultural and biological forces, you'll basically get the same things everywhere.

    Replies: @AP, @Triteleia Laxa

    birds have intelligence and come from dinosaurs, yet the most intelligent birds have a neocortex just like primates and humans

    Intelligent birds have converged with primates in intelligence but the mechanism is different, they do not have a neocortex like mammals do. In birds, the reptilian dorsal ventricular ridge evolved in complexity to function like the mammalian neocortex.

    It may be more efficient than the mammalian neocortex, but perhaps it has a ceiling.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @AP

    Well, close enough. Almost identical in function and very similar in construction:

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bird-brains-are-far-more-humanlike-than-once-thought/


    The researchers found that in both pigeons and barn owls, these brain regions are constructed much like our neocortex, with both layerlike and columnar organization—and with both horizontal and vertical circuitry. They confirmed the 3D-PLI findings using biocytin tracing, a technique for staining nerve cells.
     
    I had similar thoughts on its efficiency, it seems to have better thoroughput, but it doesn't seem to suggest that it has quite the same type of "holographic integration" of primate brains, so you can get birds that learn in half a brain, rather than I suppose have the brain "show itself" the other half of what it is seeing, and then create whole brain learning.
  271. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I'd guess that AK's breeders would be more feminine on both sides. Now that parenthood is a choice, it seems likely that both mothers and fathers will towards traditionally feminine traits. Whether that reflects in their looks or not, is such a big and interesting topic.

    Replies: @utu, @Coconuts

    Could there be some connection to testosterone levels and success as a breeder? If T levels are too low in men they have trouble having children and if they are too low in women they may fear the risks and burdens involved with having children.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Coconuts

    Wouldn't you need extremely low T to be infertile as a man?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  272. @Daniel Chieh
    @songbird

    Its hard to say, honestly. I think it'll depend on the environment.

    If it is indeed basically a safe and essentially noncompetitive environment, then Laxa's notion of both parents leaning toward caregiving and feminine traits is likely. There's less reason for the "complementary unit" or maybe not for masculine traits, so reduced dimorphism is entirely logical.

    If it is not so, and competitiveness is emphasized, then you would probably have more dimorphic breeders, since much more effort must be mainlined toward both masculine traits for competitiveness and violence, and feminine traits toward caregiving. This is also added onto since in such a society, usually female dependency is increased and thus sexual selection is stronger with a lower male percentage of population(from violent deaths).

    Africans are actually pretty dimorphic despite having a lot of female independence in some areas: even with a lot of female economic independence is a norm, males compete heavily with polygyny being common. Since the male is not needed to nor is expected to assist with childcare, they are selected for their sexual traits.

    Replies: @songbird

    I wonder whether work from home might influence things, assuming no collapse.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    It might be better for raising children because you stay at home instead of commuting and you can have childcare in your daily schedule.

  273. @Coconuts
    A couple of links with another perspective on AK's idea that CRT is a form of white supremacy:

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    The above article references this longer blog post which is quite interesting:

    https://tinkzorg.wordpress.com/2021/07/09/send-them-back-your-fierce-defiance-stamp-upon-the-cursed-alliance/

    Replies: @AP

    CRT and wokeness are an elite instrument by liberal capitalists to divide and control the lower classes. A nice description of this process by this Indian Marxist:

    https://alexeiarora.substack.com/p/why-do-american-elites-love-wokeness

    • Thanks: Coconuts
  274. @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    America has defaults set on "public squalor; private wealth" and "high risk; high reward".

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has "public wealth, private modesty" and "low risk, low reward. .

    America's defaults result contribute to the sense it is a very dysfunctional, dystopian, seeming land, for its ordinary and low income population - but for skilled labour, in profitable professions, America's "high risk, high reward" setting can create a very attractive immigration package.

    For people who are skilled in their profession, then the rewards can be highest in the US labour market, and the marginal taxes won't remove most of your income in the higher tax bands either.

    If you wanted a more normal seeming, developed country, that approximates what a developed country should look like, then you would try to go to somewhere like Denmark. But for people who are in profitable skilled professions (which have the most emigration opportunities), then the risk/reward balance is quite favouring to work in the USA, despite all the horror and dystopia the country's lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.

    Elon Musk is an example of an immigrant who was rewarded by, and also seems to have psychologically internalized, America's unusual settings. For example, Tesla has refused to develop an electric autobus, because Elon Musk has said that he dislikes public transport, autobuses and train (in America, public buses can be viewed as "for losers", and this conveniently matches the society's disinclination to invest a higher proportion of its wealth in publicly accessible goods).

    Replies: @Svevlad, @AP, @utu

    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has “public wealth, private modesty” and “low risk, low reward.

    This sounds as an accurate insight though AP objects and makes good argument which is seemingly against it. Can both be true?

    • Replies: @AP
    @utu

    Both can be true when one considers that America caters to the "winners" while ignoring the "losers." Because America depends on the will of voters, most people can be classified as "winners" and are catered to, while marginals at the bottom are ignored. Note that "white privilege" ideology primarily serves the purpose of reducing sympathy for poor whites by middle and upper class whites, as the middle class and above expands through Asian immigration and the poorest of the whites are pushed down to that bottom 10% (or 20%).

    So public goods that winners use, such as national parks throughout the country, the highway system, beaches, the Smithsonian museums, etc. are great. Local and state parks are wonderful also. Public schools aren't bad either, when looking at PISA by race Americans of European and Asian descent are well above averages for European and Asian countries. But they vary by school district, and quality depends on the type of people living in the district.

    Since most Americans own automobiles*, only the poorest "losers" must use public transportation. Accordingly, it is terrible in most places.

    In New York, the subways are awful. But the trains that take non-poor people to the suburbs are nice; Grant Central Station is beautiful.

    Dmitry came to the USA and lived like a "loser", taking public buses everywhere IIRC. My guests were always in my car and they were impressed by the extensive highways kept in usually great condition, even in deep rural or wilderness areas. Same for public beaches and parks (both national and local) with well maintained trails, nature centers, etc.

    I am not defending the system that essentially just lets the bottom 10% rot (okay, come to think of it, could be as many as 20%). Adding even more poor people to the rat race down there is cruel. But the idea that in America only the rich live well, or that only private stuff is nice and most public things are squalid, is false.

    * America has 816 vehicles per 1,000 people, more than one for every adult. Canada has 685; Italy 663; Germany 574; France 480; UK 473..

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AaronB, @AnonFromTN, @Dmitry

    , @Dmitry
    @utu

    Because I used hyperbolic words "dystopian" and "horror" in a childish way, and this has justifiably caused AP and AaronB to contemplate about absolute instead of relative comparisons. But for discussing a country's voluntary choices or prioritization, then we should try to account for income levels - i.e. compare America to countries of similar income levels.

    In absolute terms, the working class people in the USA of course must likely have a better overall standard of living according to most indicators, than working class people in middle income countries (Russia/Ukraine/Belarus, Mexico, Brazil, China, etc), let alone than in low income countries (India, Africa, etc).

    But America is one of the highest income countries anywhere in the world, and the countries with comparable income level to the USA are "hyper-developed" countries like Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, Singapore, Switzerland, Sweden.

    So, relative to the working people of Norway, Netherlands, and Denmark, to describe American life using words of "dystopian" and "horror" might still sound hyperbolic, but a bit less so.


    https://i.imgur.com/kCD5yr5.jpg

    In his response to my comment, AP also focuses on the national parks of the United States, which is an example where late 19th and 20th century America really prioritized investment in a public space, and was an inheritance of romanticism about the landscape which had been a passion of American culture and national identity in the country's adolescent years in the 19th century.

    But for tourists or outside observer, seeing how much was publicly invested in the national parks, can highlight to them how unusual this decision is for most other areas in America by comparison to other comparably wealthy countries.

    It could make the visitor think about the wealthy pinchfist, who after a successful business career, converts into uncompromizing extravagance when spending on some passions that remind him of his childhood (perhaps like building a beautiful model trainway in his garden).

  275. @AP
    @Daniel Chieh


    birds have intelligence and come from dinosaurs, yet the most intelligent birds have a neocortex just like primates and humans
     
    Intelligent birds have converged with primates in intelligence but the mechanism is different, they do not have a neocortex like mammals do. In birds, the reptilian dorsal ventricular ridge evolved in complexity to function like the mammalian neocortex.

    It may be more efficient than the mammalian neocortex, but perhaps it has a ceiling.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Well, close enough. Almost identical in function and very similar in construction:

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bird-brains-are-far-more-humanlike-than-once-thought/

    The researchers found that in both pigeons and barn owls, these brain regions are constructed much like our neocortex, with both layerlike and columnar organization—and with both horizontal and vertical circuitry. They confirmed the 3D-PLI findings using biocytin tracing, a technique for staining nerve cells.

    I had similar thoughts on its efficiency, it seems to have better thoroughput, but it doesn’t seem to suggest that it has quite the same type of “holographic integration” of primate brains, so you can get birds that learn in half a brain, rather than I suppose have the brain “show itself” the other half of what it is seeing, and then create whole brain learning.

  276. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Passer by

    I am not boasting of anything. I am just saying that greater economic development leads to greater economic independence for women.

    This manifests in women being able to get more professional jobs and the delegitimisation of "traditionalist" political programmes when it comes to gender.

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.

    How much better would immigration restriction have sold if it had been seen, for the last few decades, as inimical to women's comfort in the workplace? Rather than as the politics of people who think that the only place for women is locked up at home?

    Replies: @Passer by, @Daniel Chieh, @Coconuts, @Xi-jinping

    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.

    They don’t at present but this kind of thing will probably be something to look out for in white Western populations some decades, maybe two, maybe three or four, down the line. Feminism seems to be one of those movements whose success will end up undermining its moral standing and the moral influence it can exert on men. It also looks like it may end up connected with appreciable decline, in numbers and in power, of the population groups that originally gave rise to it.

    I think for the short term at least women will continue to rise in power among Western Europeans, then this will go too far, the memory of serious patriarchy will be too far in the past, and some counter movement, elements of which can be seen in a raw early form in things like the Red Pill and Black Pill, will emerge.

    This may or may not, depending on the state of the West by that point, influence how women in other parts of the world make use of their growing economic freedom.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Coconuts

    Probably the most likely scenario for reversal is a major military defeat versus an unwoke nation. Women and other such individuals traditionally seen as weakening military efforts tend to get blamed, fairly or not.

    Good chance of that happening since liberal societies do often tend to get weaker in quality/efficiency, and general coherence & cooperation. Their greater economic prowess doesn't always translate into effective deployment: I've actually seen and executed against this myself.

    Everyone loves the strong horse, etc.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Coconuts

    My theory of the death of formerly useful political identities is that they die once they become a prison in which their constituent demographic ends up trapped.

    This leads to the demographic supporting things which betray their deeper interests and the whole identity is ripped up and forgotten about in short order after that. It then gets replaced by something more suitable, though demographics may get jumbled up.

    Western feminism is touching on many of those contradictions now. The trans measuring of womanhood as how many traditionally feminine interests and qualities you possess, is one such trap.

    The counting of female CEOs is another, as it is an extremely limiting view of what constitutes human happiness, and tying women to it, is to tie women with chains. No woman, or person even, wants to be seen as a failure, in her core identity, because she isn't a corporate drone killing herself to get to the C Suite.

    Women also don't only care about themselves, so feminism has been far from always dominant, but the more feminism goes past looking to achieve greater security, freedom and tolerance for individual women, the more it will likely be counterproductive to those aims, and the shorter its time in the world will be.

    What is a feminism which makes women feel diminished?

    Replies: @AaronB, @Coconuts

  277. @Coconuts
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Any politics that stands against this current, dooms itself to ever increasing marginalisation, because not even the most tradded up online teen wants to actually enforce the laws which would be required.
     
    They don't at present but this kind of thing will probably be something to look out for in white Western populations some decades, maybe two, maybe three or four, down the line. Feminism seems to be one of those movements whose success will end up undermining its moral standing and the moral influence it can exert on men. It also looks like it may end up connected with appreciable decline, in numbers and in power, of the population groups that originally gave rise to it.

    I think for the short term at least women will continue to rise in power among Western Europeans, then this will go too far, the memory of serious patriarchy will be too far in the past, and some counter movement, elements of which can be seen in a raw early form in things like the Red Pill and Black Pill, will emerge.

    This may or may not, depending on the state of the West by that point, influence how women in other parts of the world make use of their growing economic freedom.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Triteleia Laxa

    Probably the most likely scenario for reversal is a major military defeat versus an unwoke nation. Women and other such individuals traditionally seen as weakening military efforts tend to get blamed, fairly or not.

    Good chance of that happening since liberal societies do often tend to get weaker in quality/efficiency, and general coherence & cooperation. Their greater economic prowess doesn’t always translate into effective deployment: I’ve actually seen and executed against this myself.

    Everyone loves the strong horse, etc.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    Wokeism is an ideology mostly pushed by the cultural establishment, which as a rule is replaced after losing a war, whether due to internal factors (e.g. WWI Germany & Russia) or imposition by the occupier (e.g. WWII Germany & Japan).

    In the US's case (assuming the military leadership is inept enough, which I don't think they are yet), it will be a break-up and then assertion of local, more conservative cultural interests.

    (can you see how diverse my interests and viewpoints are when you look at my Vtuber reply, then this?)

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Another German Reader

  278. @AP
    @Dmitry

    Your posts often include brilliant insights, but these ideas you often share are ridiculous.


    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.
     
    Most of America is not San Francisco.

    despite all the horror and dystopia the country’s lack of public investment creates for the ordinary citizen.
     
    "Horror" and "dystopia" maybe describe 10% of America's people, living in certain ghettos or rural trailer parks.

    Almost every American can afford a comfortable automobile, so America does not have good public transportation. OTOH, national parks are spectacular and usually well maintained, and the highway system is usually rather good also.

    America's rural areas and suburbs may be somewhat boring but they are hardly horrible or dystopian.

    Replies: @Morton's toes

    I have just driven San Francisco – Denver. The devastation of opiate abuse and homelessness is evident the entire distance when you recognize it although San Francisco definitely has a near monopoly on junkies shooting up on the sidewalk in the middle of the day.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Morton's toes

    Tell us more about what you saw between San Francisco and Denver, in the small towns and countryside, the real stuff that is often hidden away from the casual observer...

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Philip Owen

  279. @Daniel Chieh
    @Abelard Lindsey

    I'm not saying that the current throttle is good, but the article clearly indicates cultural(or even voluntary) restrictions inspiring more creativity.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Abelard Lindsey

    I agree with the article with regards to art. However, its bullshit with regards to technological innovation and business entrepreneurship.

  280. @Dmitry
    @AaronB

    Jews are less than 0,2% of the population, so Karlin is showing 15 times higher levels of Judaism than a normal sample .

    If international guidelines for normal safe levels of Judaism in a person are 2000 ppm (parts per million), Karlin's blood is measuring contamination rates as high as 30,000 ppm, at which point we might might begin to see the neurotoxic effects with symptoms like an interest in stock market and collecting multiple passports.

    Replies: @Xi-Jinping, @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    It’s just neurotic Internationalism that afflict Jews in large numbers and other ethnicies to a smaller extent (such as Karlin)

  281. @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    No, the Kiana-like designs are intentional homages: there's shared talent between Punishing Gray Raven and Honkai, etc.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Do you get what I mean? Shirakami Fubuki was a big hit in China too, partly because of the white hair (until Hololive was discredited because of the whole Taiwan faux pas)

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Yellowface Anon

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtImI8YVV-U

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  282. @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    Do you get what I mean? Shirakami Fubuki was a big hit in China too, partly because of the white hair (until Hololive was discredited because of the whole Taiwan faux pas)

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    It was actually just Kiryu Coco (Who is quitting now for a backstage role) and Akai Haato (in hiatus atm) who were "offensive" (and what Kiryu Coco did was only opening up the Google Analytics page for her channel which showed Taiwan separately from China)

    This is why I never regard Vtubers highly - their minutes of fame are built on quicksand and their fanbases are practically cesspools that easily flare up whenever some perceived wrong is committed. A lot of energy that is channelled in wokeness in the West, is in Vtuber cults.

  283. @songbird
    @Daniel Chieh

    I wonder whether work from home might influence things, assuming no collapse.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    It might be better for raising children because you stay at home instead of commuting and you can have childcare in your daily schedule.

  284. @Svevlad
    Look, look, look, women in the workplace is merely a symptom of the fact that people now need two wages to pay for a family - which is unacceptable. It forces the woman between either working and never reproducing, or reproducing and overloading herself by having both to work, and take care of the kids, and she can never do it herself, so the father jumps in too, so he also gets more stress. Granted, after pregnancy a woman can work again, the father can take care of the kid too, but there's some things he just can't do (remember: kids need to be nursed optimally to age 2!!!).

    It's not a question of women should be allowed to work, it's a question of why do women have to work, at least in the manner of today. It literally interferes with the child's health.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    It’s not a question of women should be allowed to work, it’s a question of why do women have to work, at least in the manner of today.

    It’s really a question of how much work women should do, and how much work they want to do. My impression (based purely on anecdotal evidence) is that most women want to work but that most would prefer to work shorter hours than they’re working at the moment.

    So the real problem is women being pressured (by both social and economic pressure) to work full-time when they’d prefer not to, and if they do work part-time being pressured to work longer hours than they really want to.

    And the pressure to work longer hours seems to be increasing.

    Of course it’s also possible that quite a few men would prefer to work shorter hours!

    • Agree: Boomthorkell
    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @dfordoom

    That post sparked some interest. There's this from a 2005 Australian study

    https://imgur.com/a/Jm2lJ7k

  285. AP says:
    @utu
    @Dmitry


    America has defaults set on “public squalor; private wealth” and “high risk; high reward”.

    This can seem almost opposite to a country such as Denmark, which has “public wealth, private modesty” and “low risk, low reward.
     
    This sounds as an accurate insight though AP objects and makes good argument which is seemingly against it. Can both be true?

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry

    Both can be true when one considers that America caters to the “winners” while ignoring the “losers.” Because America depends on the will of voters, most people can be classified as “winners” and are catered to, while marginals at the bottom are ignored. Note that “white privilege” ideology primarily serves the purpose of reducing sympathy for poor whites by middle and upper class whites, as the middle class and above expands through Asian immigration and the poorest of the whites are pushed down to that bottom 10% (or 20%).

    So public goods that winners use, such as national parks throughout the country, the highway system, beaches, the Smithsonian museums, etc. are great. Local and state parks are wonderful also. Public schools aren’t bad either, when looking at PISA by race Americans of European and Asian descent are well above averages for European and Asian countries. But they vary by school district, and quality depends on the type of people living in the district.

    Since most Americans own automobiles*, only the poorest “losers” must use public transportation. Accordingly, it is terrible in most places.

    In New York, the subways are awful. But the trains that take non-poor people to the suburbs are nice; Grant Central Station is beautiful.

    Dmitry came to the USA and lived like a “loser”, taking public buses everywhere IIRC. My guests were always in my car and they were impressed by the extensive highways kept in usually great condition, even in deep rural or wilderness areas. Same for public beaches and parks (both national and local) with well maintained trails, nature centers, etc.

    I am not defending the system that essentially just lets the bottom 10% rot (okay, come to think of it, could be as many as 20%). Adding even more poor people to the rat race down there is cruel. But the idea that in America only the rich live well, or that only private stuff is nice and most public things are squalid, is false.

    * America has 816 vehicles per 1,000 people, more than one for every adult. Canada has 685; Italy 663; Germany 574; France 480; UK 473..

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP


    I am not defending the system that essentially just lets the bottom 10% rot (okay, come to think of it, could be as many as 20%). Adding even more poor people to the rat race down there is cruel.
     
    I'd also add that the upper classes are no longer empathically communicating with less fortunate folk. And the latter in increasin