Here’s a map of Moscow’s coronavirus cases to date:
Notice something interesting?
Although it’s not a particularly clean demarcation, there is a higher density towards the center and south-west, while there’s much fewer cases in the prole-ish south-east.
This corresponds with:
- Property & rental prices
- “Racism” in house listings
- Liberal opposition’s share of the vote
- Concentration of “SWPL” amenities
Why? Well, they’re still overwhelmingly foreign cases, with no hard evidence of sustained community-based transmission to date.
There are 495 cases in Russia now, up 57 from the previous day, and a decline from the local peak of 71 new cases observed yesterday.
The optimistic interpretation goes as follows:
- Russia locked down its borders on March 18, and since symptoms take a median of 5 days to manifest, new cases should peak within this general period.
- Several clinics are now testing for COVID-19, whereas before it was just the Vector state lab.
- Tests have become more sensitive, and results are delivered faster.
This would suggest that the current spurt is overwhelmingly driven by quarantined people from abroad getting tested, as well as a “catching up” effect due to the improvements in testing.
The pessimistic interpretation, I suppose, is that there is an undetected shadow epidemic in its early stages already growing in Moscow or elsewhere. I suppose we’ll see by ~April 1.
In other news:
- Anyone over the age of 65 in Moscow now officially ordered into quarantine as of March 26.
- All the schools, colleges, and gyms have been closed since three ago, and will remain closed up into at least April 12.
- Traffic intensity is down by almost 50% (many major European cities are ghost towns, with e.g. London down 75%).
- Now nightclubs and cinemas have been closed. Bars have been prohibited from offering hookahs.
- Promotion of digital payments; banks ordered to hold onto banknotes for 14 days so that they’re decontaminated.