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Ethiopia in the 2010s
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Ethiopia has long done quite well by Sub-Saharan African standards. It has a good record of human accomplishment, being the only country in the region to have developed a literary corpus before European colonialism.

But it was, until recently, extremely poor. But no longer so after a decade of some of the highest growth rates in the world, which has been faster than China’s every single year during the 2010s:

Despite Corona and the ethnic unrest, growth remained at 6.1% in 2020.

This is a vindication for the HBD theory of economic growth, which says that over the long-term, as countries exit Malthusian traps and adopt development best practices, they should converge to a level correspondent with their human capital. Ethiopian polygenic IQ probably isn’t significantly worse than Kenya’s, which has the best psychometric performance in SSA, so I expect Ethiopia to sail smoothly to its level (political shocks aside). But whether it can continue China-level growth beyond a Kenyan GDPpc of ~$5,000 is another matter.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Ethiopia, Hbd, Iq and Wealth 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. A123 says:

    AK,

    I believe you have a typo in your first paragraph.

    the only country in the region to *hate* developed a literary corpus

    PEACE 😇

  3. Ethiopia like the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa is so backward that even the slightest development greatly increases their GDP. Building a single large Chemical factory wouldn’t increase Germany’s GDP by even .1%.

    The same factory would however increase Ethiopia’s GDP by 3-5%.

    Plus there’s the factor of population growth. Your GDP is bound to grow somewhat if your population is exploding. There simply will be more economic activity

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
  4. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    It probably won’t change the ranking much, but growth in GDP per head is the “single best gauge of economic performance”. I would also add that in the developing economy context, combining GDP growth per head with currency depreciation (or appreciation) is the best metric for performance over a long time period. But I’ve never seen anyone compile that kind of data.

    WHICH economy has enjoyed the best economic performance over the past five years: America’s or Japan’s? Most people will pick America. The popular perception is that America’s vibrant economy was sprinting ahead (albeit fuelled by credit and housing bubbles that have now painfully burst), whereas Japan crawled along at a snail’s pace. And it is true that America’s average annual real GDP growth of 2.9% was much faster than Japan’s 2.1%. However, the single best gauge of economic performance is not growth in GDP, but GDP per person, which is a rough guide to average living standards. It tells a completely different story.

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2008/03/13/grossly-distorted-picture

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    , @mal
  5. You should make a post about Indonesia. It’s already not that poor and with its huge population is bound to be an increasingly relevant nation.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @E. Harding
  6. Ethiopian will probably tip over into majority Islam within 10-20 years so any progress will be capped as the Orthodox and non-Orthodox Christians fight the takeover of their ancient land.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  7. @china-russia-all-the-way

    GDP growth per head with currency depreciation (or appreciation) is the best metric for performance

    Real growth is already inflation adjusted.

  8. Svevlad says:

    Ethiopia, I think, can go even beyond. I believe Horner population has some India-style hyper-stratification going on, so despite abysmal average IQ their smart fraction is sizable enough

  9. songbird says:

    I wonder what the genetic distance is between Ethiopians and Somalis.

    My understanding is that Ethiopia needs a port, but that the coast is pretty dysfunctional. Could they annex a port, without it being dysgenic? Or exacerbating ethnic conflict?

    You hear Somaliland heralded a lot, but I am frankly suspicious of any positive evaluation. To start with, there are enough Somalis in the West, for us to be able to make judgments about them. Secondly, Africa is often looked at through rose-tinted glasses. You hear economists make these risible statements like “Africa is the new China” or “Djibouti is the new Singapore.”

    It is not that there is zero parallelism. I believe in the ’50s, it was still common for people in Singapore to have intestinal worms, but there is a limit to what de-worming can do. If you get away from the port of Djibouti, you risk being robbed/raped/murdered. Was Singapore ever like that? I don’t know, but I’m guessing no.

    Didn’t Ethiopians beat back the Egyptians, after the American Civil War? Maybe, that is in their favor. Though, I guess mountains are usually an advantage and mountain people often more warlike.

  10. AP says:

    Ethiopia has also been recovering from Communism, which artificially depresses economic performance.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Troll: Xi-jinping
  11. Blinky Bill says: • Website

    Population growth of 2.5%

  12. Blinky Bill says: • Website

    You’re welcome Thulean.

    [MORE]

  13. I wonder how many people actually care about Ethiopia?
    As to genetics, they are mixed race, like Somalians. Biologically that’s advantageous, but a fat lot of good genetics did to Somalia.

  14. Ethiopia is the only African country with a respectable indigenous civilization.Ethiopians I have interacted with came across as decent and reasonably intelligent in sharp contrast to other Africans.

    Unfortunately Muslims(Think Somali like creatures) constitute 35% of their population and will be a majority in the next 30 years.Expect a descent into civil war and dysfunction which is what happens when Muslims outbreed the infidel in formerly non muslim majority countries. Even relatively civilized places like Lebanon aren’t exceptions to this rule.

    If the Ethiopians have any foresight they should undergo partition and remove all Muslims.

    Something like what Hindu Indians precipitated in 1947 reducing the Muslim population to 8% from 25% in the process.If not then India too would become a Muslim majority country by 2050.

    Though if the Ethiopians pursue this they should reduce the population of Muslims to less than 1%.If they manage that I have no doubt they will be at least a second world country by the second half of this century.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    , @Shango
  15. 216 says: • Website

    There is no oil resource curse, nor a dependency on a single export cash crop.

    Considerable success in expanding their airline to the rest of the continent, while South Africa withered.

  16. mal says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    However, the single best gauge of economic performance is not growth in GDP, but GDP per person, which is a rough guide to average living standards. It tells a completely different story.

    Technically true, but in the same sense as the best solution to poverty problem being rich people hunting poor people from helicopters. Government orders for machine guns and helicopters will increase GDP, and less poors will drive GDP/capita growth rate even higher.

    Japanese population is declining by 100,000’s per year, their net population losses will soon make World War 2 look like a walk in the park. At the same time, government is printing and pumping massive amounts of money into economy (they didn’t get to over 200% public debt to GDP for nothing). This by definition causes GDP to rise.

    Normally, this would cause currency issues, but Bank of Japan has a dollar swap agreement with Federal Reserve of US, so nobody is suicidal enough to mess with the yen because of that. They also own assets overseas instead of investing in their own children.

    So Japan gets to live Communist dream – cull your own people in exchange for infinite money printing and government control (Bank of Japan owns like what, 80% of stock ETFs or something, and most of the bond market).

    It is a ghostly place.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  17. Znzn says:

    Ethiopian army does not seem to perform too well vs. Tigrean guerillas, and the capital the government seems to have shaky control of the country from news reports.

  18. I wonder why Russia isn’t able to follow in Ethiopia’s footsteps. If Ethiopia can manage 10% growth rates per annum I can’t see why Russia should be any different.

    Both are developing countries, both are former communist nations and both are majority orthodox, and the average IQ and infrastructure is comparable. I can’t see why one can achieve great growth while the other is stuck at less than 3% growth a year.

    • LOL: Vishnugupta
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Xi-jinping
  19. @Vishnugupta

    Ideally, they should let the mostly Islamic Somali Regional State go and unify with Eritrea. Letting the Somali Regional State go would reduce the Muslim proportion to a slightly more manageable 25%; however, given Eritrea has a similar proportion of Muslims, then unification will not greatly increase the proportion of Orthodox. Despite this, ethnically and religiously there is little to separate Ethiopians and Eritreans and both of them should realise there is a serious Islamic threat. It would also provide each country with something they need i.e. Ethiopia sea access and Eritrea strategic depth.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  20. A123 says:
    @AlexanderGrozny

    I wonder why Russia isn’t able to follow in Ethiopia’s footsteps. If Ethiopia can manage 10% growth rates per annum I can’t see why Russia should be any different.

    Math I am afraid… The denominator for growth % is “current annual production” per person.

    GDP is problematic as a statistic however / USD per capita 2019: (1) (2) (3)

    $12,000 — Russia
    $     600 — Ethiopa
    $  8,300 — China

    It is hard to believe the growth numbers reported by the Chinese government are accurate. Although part of the issue is likely “per capita GDP” that also seems significantly off. If real productivity (denominator) is much lower, then the high % growth is much more plausible.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/gdp-per-capita
    (2) https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita
    (3) https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita

  21. When younger get I thought there two ways of understanding the world. One was obviously to physically travel to different countries and another was to have short term relationships with women from different ethnicities, religions and linguistic groups. Clearly, these are small samples of each culture but one garners a lot of insight. I once dated an Eritrean Orthodox woman from Asmara. She and her family had a lot love for Ethiopians and thought the war was nonsensical. But these countries are countries within countries i.e. she always made the point of the other ethnic groups in the country. Difficult to see much national cohesion. She was studious and quite elegant. Had a unique aroma. Very proud of their culture and history and very fond of Greeks. Unfortunately, she never got around to cooking for me which was a key part of the research.

  22. @Shortsword

    Lower PISA scores than Brazil, and lower standard deviation of PISA scores than Brazil, as well. And, as you know, Hong Kong alone has a higher >125 IQ population than Brazil. If we take PISA scores literally, Macau alone has a higher >125 IQ population than Indonesia. Thus, the country doesn’t even rank in the top 50 in the Nature Index. Its GDP per capita will top out at around Mexico’s level. It might become China’s version of Mexico if China grows strong enough, and will certainly provide a large population inflow into Korea. It is notable for having one of the worst COVID performances in Asia. Quantity is certainly important, but it has less value if it’s hampered by low quality.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
  23. As a corollary to its faster growth than most of SSA, Ethiopia has a notably lower TFR than Nigeria and even Tanzania, and it’s falling much quicker than that in the latter two. As a result, it’s still a tossup on whether it will grow in power more than other similarly situated countries.

    • Replies: @bispora
  24. Dmitry says:

    vindication for the HBD theory of economic

    I don’t think this makes sense.

    If there is high economic growth between years, then this means that you receive significantly different measurements, depending on the year that is selected. Moreover, this will be including within the same historical epoch so the selection of year becomes more arbitrary.

    One of the questions, will be what the correct year to select, from which the theory is vindicated? 1860, 1960? The higher the economic growth, the narrower and more arbitrary the years selected relative to a particular historical epoch. . Is “HBD theory of economic” vindicated in Italy in 1960 or in 1976, and if you choose one year, then what do you do with the information from the other year?

    If we wanted to support or disprove a claim about “HBD level” (imagining how you define that will be a blackbox for now), then is the correct year for selection1960, when Italy was close to Mexico, or 1984 when it is similar to Germany? Or are you supposed to average across all the past years?

    In any case, in times of high economic growth, this choice of the year will be more arbitrary, than in times of low economic growth.

  25. Dmitry says:

    This might be a little offtopic, but I’ve read that there is currently a threat of war between Ethiopia and Egypt and Sudan, due to conflict in relation to the Nile dam.

    In which case, Ethiopia’s army will surely have problems, against the Egyptian army, that has hundreds of F-16s, and thousands of M1A1 Abrams tanks.

    Hopefully Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia can resolve conflict peacefully. If there was war, this would be surely a worse rape for Ethiopia, than Armenia against Azerbaijan.

    A decade ago, Ethiopia could have at least had weapons support from Israel (and possibly Turkey) in a war with Egypt/Sudan. But nowadays Israel is an ally of Egypt’s secular dictator Sisi, and Israel has just begun a Trump-Kushner initiated romance with Sudan.

    Also Sisi was threatened by Turkey across the last decade. But Turkey-Egypt relations seem to have been restored this month, which further strengthens Egypt’s position. Egypt is also currently restoring relations with Qatar, so it’s diplomatic position will be increasingly secured.

    You can see aggressive rhetoric against Ethiopia in Egypt’s English websites: https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/100634/Famine-flooding-or-war-are-repercussions-of-Ethiopian-Dam-filling

    Famine, flooding or war are repercussions of Ethiopian Dam filling without deal
    Egypt Today

    ..Consultant to Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Hani Raslan said that Egypt wants to reduce the quantity of water filled during drought, and that Sudan wants daily data on the Renaissance Dam to ensure the safety of its small dams.

    Such demands were met with rejection by Ethiopia, which indicates that negotiations were not fruitful, Raslan pointed out highlighting that Ethiopia is pushing Sudan and Egypt into conflict, which has never been desired by either of them.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @AP
  26. TG says:

    This is the biggest pile of rubbish ever.

    When people breed like rodents (that is to say, when they have the maximum number of children physically possible without any moral restraint), they can and do consume all resources and guarantee that they and their children will be driven to subsistence level poverty.

    India has had many years of double-digit economic growth – and there is still widespread chronic malnutrition and the standard of living is inferior to late medieval Europe. 500 years of technical progress wiped out by massive population growth…

    Here’s from wikipedia on Ethiopia: “In spite of fast growth in recent years, GDP per capita is one of the lowest in the world…”

    One needs to remember, that JUST TO STAY LEVEL a country with a rapidly growing population needs far more economic growth than the growth of the population – because of the need to make massive capital investments, and because as population densities rise the costs per capita rise faster.

    The United States became (for a time) the richest country in history with modest population growth and just 2% sustained annual economic growth. And places like India and Ethiopia have double-digit economic growth, and are still miserable shitholes.

    OK you skeptics tell me this up front and clear: is the answer to all of our problems that everyone has the maximum number of children at the earliest possible age without any consideration of whether they can support them? Really??

    Who are you going to believe, Milton Friedman or your own lying eyes?

    Ah, but the people at the top, they don’t care about the standard of living of the average person – they only care about the TOTAL size of the economy. For them, India is much more profitable than Switzerland. But where would you rather work for a living, hm?

    • Troll: Jatt Aryaa
    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    , @DNS
  27. 128 says:

    Anhy evidence that Ethiopias are more intelligent than Bangladeshis, Indonesians, or Sri Lankans?

  28. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Shortsword

    There are three components of nominal growth. real growth + inflation + currency appreciation (or depreciation). I haven’t seen anyone put together a single chart that incorporates all three components of the top 10 fastest growing economies over a decade.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  29. @Caspar Von Everec

    I think that’s his point though. Whether they can keep “improving/growing” after they reach the Kenyan-level. They are finally making the big early leaps (one chemical factory at a time!), but what follows after is probably not Germany or China.

    • Replies: @128
  30. @TG

    I think it’s more about of having both an intelligent and competent ethnic group, having enough of them to matter, and having the economy and resources to support the population and the industry.

    Ideally, you want all three. A billion Germans across Europe (but not Germany, that would be wild…) would be good. Or a billion Russians. It’s how the resources are used, the economy is developed, and the way products are distributed that make the difference between a chaotic large population (Nigeria) and productive and relatively clean large population (China.)

  31. @Agathoklis

    25% Muslim population vis a vis 35% will delay a demographic takeover by about a generation.

    You need to get the population to single digits to buy yourself a century of demographic security.

    Western Europeans think they are very clever but have no idea of the demographic disaster that awaits them now that 25% and rising Muslim population is almost a fait accompli in countries like France and Germany given the school age population and the birth age differential and the ability of this entire community to vote as a block to further their agenda and harm the host civilization.Notice how Muslims the world over vote en mass for far left parties.

    Even though we managed to beat them down to 8% at the time of independence they have increased to 16% in the past 75 years and already create major political problems in states where they are greater than 25%.Voting en bloc for one party and sky high voter turnout gives them king maker political status in many state elections.

    This religion is a plague on mankind.They are like a medevil non technological version of the Borg(I sometimes wonder if the sci fiction writers who created this character were inspired by them and the green color associated with them is a dog whistle warning to viewers from civilized communities).

  32. @Agathoklis

    Oh, that’d be a very sad development.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  33. 128 says:
    @Boomthorkell

    Kenya’s economy is a crapshow, it is not even at the level or Indonesia, Nigeria, or Viet Nam.

  34. whether it can continue China-level growth beyond a Kenyan GDPpc of ~$5,000 is another matter.

    While some “best practices” are sensible (planned economies don’t work, markets mostly do), other “best practices” are suboptimal (so-called democracy, independent judiciaries, uncritical following of the Washington Consensus), and some “best practices” are ultimately suicidal (letting women, homosexuals, and racial minorities run your country).

    I expect that an African authoritarian government with a stable mechanism of power transfer (say a powerful president selected by a politburo) could out-perform its mean IQ. I expect the same in Europe, except that any move in that direction is fiercely opposed by the Homintern. See Hungary. And anyhow, even in Eastern Europe, men already let women go feral many decades go. It’s going to be very difficult to re-domesticate them.

  35. ‘being the only country in the region to have developed a literary corpus before European colonialism.’

    The confidence with which you lot say the most ignorant things never ceases to amaze.

    Unless you mean in an indigenous script, then no, it was not. The libraries of Timbuktu and Sahelian West Africa, in general, are chock-full of em, albeit in Arabic and Arabic-derived local scripts.

    Even by ‘HBD’ standards, your prediction is likely to be off for the simple reason that the demographics of modern Ethiopia are different from historic Ethiopia.

    Its majority group today is the Oromo, not the Tigrayans and Amhara who formed the core of historic Ethiopia. To the best of my knowledge, the Oromo are your run-of-the-mill Nilotic nomadic group.

    It is fine to have no idea about a place. To be ignorant and confidently spew lies is another. You don’t see me going around opining on Eastern Europe and the deficiencies of the Slav now do you? I simply have no idea. That is fine too. The pressures of the internet seem to make claims to universal knowledge necessary. It is not. Better a hedgehog than a fox.

    • Thanks: Gerard-Mandela
    • Replies: @Agathoklis
  36. @128

    I always thought Vietnam was doing pretty well for itself. I would be impressed if any Black-Run African country (sans oil wealth) could manage Viet Nam standards. Honestly, I would be impressed if the Mediterranean Arab countries could either.

  37. @mal

    200% public debt to GDP

    But over half of this is owned by the Bank of Japan. Being indebted to yourself is not necessarily a big tragedy.

    • Replies: @mal
  38. bispora says:
    @E. Harding

    Today the population of Ethiopia is around 102 million. The population projection for 2030 is 125 million. Guess what was the population number of Ethiopia in 1985, at the great famine tour (Live Aid)?

  39. Where did this dumb idea of Ethiopia being “communist” come from? Being friends with Soviet Union does not make a country communist. lol

    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
  40. Many ethiopians are not very negroid looking, so I guess their potential is higher than full blacks in many ssa countries.

    • Replies: @DNS
  41. DNS says:
    @TG

    There are lies, damned lies and statistics. GDP is a fairly nonsensical metric which drives myopic politicians and economists alike to ruining their country through either destroying the natural environment or through a massive demographic reconstitution in order to flood the country with cheap labour.

    Furthermore, Russia has a fairly low GDP but arguably is even more powerful than China in terms of influencing world events, so it is better to take a holistic view of the situation as opposed to putting IMF figures upon a pedestal.

  42. DNS says:
    @Finnishguy78

    Many ethiopians are not very negroid looking, so I guess their potential is higher than full blacks in many ssa countries.

    Ethiopians seem to have been classified as “Caucasian” by most 19th and 20th century anthropologists. The map below is from Meyers Konversations-Lexikon, a German encyclopedia published 1839-1984 after which it merged with another encyclopedia.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    , @Pumblechook
  43. @Felix Keverich

    The Provisional Military Government of Ethiopia and the successor People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia considered themselves Marxist-Leninist. One can argue no-true-commie, but that’s an unseemly form of argument for a gentleman.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Felix Keverich
  44. @DNS

    They seem to have coloured Turkey as partially Mongoloid. Very true.

    • Troll: AltanBakshi
  45. @Vishnugupta

    Unfortunately, outside of the Somali Regional State the Muslim population is scattered across the country. To get the proportion to single digits would require a Yugoslav War or Rwandan Genocide situation where neighbours kill each other. Addis Ababa would turn into a bloodbath.

  46. @Vishnugupta

    Well at least they got rid of their Jews, no? So the troubles don’t stop just because you’re Juden-free?

    • Replies: @ivan
  47. @Nigerian Nationalist

    Most so called ancient Ethiopian literature was just Greek texts translated into Ge’ez. Only really in the 12th century do they develop what might be considered indigenous literature. This is still reasonably impressive. Some European countries were even further behind.

    • Replies: @Paperback Writer
  48. @E. Harding

    That’s still enough to be relevant. Compare with Brazil. Indonesia is looking likely to become richer than Brazil this decade and will have about ~50% higher population.

  49. ivan says:
    @Vishnugupta

    Your statistics on the Muslim population is in error. At independence the percentage for Muslims was 9.8%, today is it 14.6%. This is includes the followers of all religions. It is meaningless to compare the Hindu population size with the Muslim one, exclusive of other religions in India Further nobody beat down the Muslim population, the Partition was largely marked by the Muslim dominated lands that are now Pakistan and Bangladesh splitting away from the conglomeration that was British India. The Muslims and Hindus and everyone else were to stay in place and almost everyone did. Obviously I know about the bloodshed during Partition, but that involved only a relatively small percentage of the population. For example there was no Muslim exodus from Kerala or Tamil Nadu to Pakistan, and even if they had wanted to go, they would not have been welcome in Pakistan. At Partition there were two secular countries that were created which were supposed to be for adherents of all religion. Pakistan did not keep its side of the agreement, largely because MA Jinnah died one year into office. Pakistan too was created as a “secular” country

    I’ve seen in Singapore and Malaysia Indian and Chinese families which produced eight, to ten and more children. All survived due to the expansion of medical services and the higher availability of food in the 1950s and 1960s. It was not only the Muslim womb that was fecund. Basically the way to reduce population growth is to ensure that females are married off in their twenties, then most will have only two or three children. Or in many cases just one.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  50. ivan says:
    @Commentator Mike

    They didn’t get rid of their Jews. The Jews were flown out by Yitzhak Shamir to make up the numbers in Israel. Those Jews seen as descendants of King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba, would have been pretty high up in the estimation of the other Ethiopians, being a highly religious people.

    But I got your point

  51. @ivan

    The Muslims and Hindus and everyone else were to stay in place and almost everyone did. Obviously I know about the bloodshed during Partition, but that involved only a relatively small percentage of the population. For example there was no Muslim exodus from Kerala or Tamil Nadu to Pakistan, and even if they had wanted to go, they would not have been welcome in Pakistan.

    You are wrong, millions of UP, Bihari, East Punjabi and West Bengali Muslims left for Pakistan. It’s highly likely that without partition Bihar, West Bengal and Assam would now have Muslim plurality or even majority.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Thanks: Ivan
  52. mal says:
    @reiner Tor

    That’s not their tragedy.

    Their tragedy is that they wasted that money and their lives. They were given free $11 trillion dollars to spend but instead of enjoying life and investing in their young and producing more Japanese and the future for their country, they gave it to the old and senile. Worthless country.

    And sure, Japan is not alone in undergoing demographic transaction. But no other country was given this much free money on a per capita basis. (US has more people). So Japan uniquely had the means to do something about it, and they failed.

    That’s their tragedy.

    I mean, if you gave Russia free $11 trillion, at least some of it would go to making more Russians – even with their limited means (nobody will Russia free dollar swaps because Russia is not a vassal state) they try to support family formation.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  53. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    The dam must be a very tempting target, since it isn’t far from the Sudanese border. I don’t know the terrain, but perhaps they could hit it from Sudan with artillery? Anyway, probably missiles. And there is always air attack. Or, maybe, they would not want to do that, being downstream?

    IMO, it is a really bad idea to fillip the noses of Arabs, if you are a weaker black country, because they have a massive inferiority complex. Probably doubly true of Egyptians whose glory days were 4500 hundred years ago. Doesn’t help that the Ethiopian dam has more megawatt potential than the Aswan Dam.

    If they really had to invade, I suppose the optics would be pretty bad, though. Egypt tried to make Ethiopia a colony in relatively modern times (1876).

  54. AP says:
    @Dmitry

    Interesting. But:

    If there was war, this would be surely a worse rape for Ethiopia, than Armenia against Azerbaijan.

    Ethiopia has a lot of war experience though, and Arabs aren’t known for their bravery in war, no matter how many fancy weapons they have.

    • Replies: @Carlo
    , @Dmitry
  55. Carlo says:
    @AP

    Not that good experience, to be honest. First, they couldn’t prevent Eritrea from getting its independence (losing its access to the Red Sea), and then couldn’t defeat smaller and poorer Eritrea in the 1998-2000 war. I agree with your assessment regarding Arab military capabilities, so if war occurs it will probably be among underperforming armies.

    • Replies: @AP
  56. @128

    Kenya’s economy is a crapshow, it is not even at the level or Indonesia, Nigeria, or Viet Nam.

    Kenya’s not terrible. It’s richer than Pakistan, though poorer than India.

    I suspect Kenya will pass Nigeria before too long. Vietnam is not even a fair comparison given that they are following in the path of Korea, Taiwan etc. Indonesia is not a fair comparison either. I’ve noted before that ASEAN is the last major region of the world that can still sustain high growth rates to at least ~$10,000 per capita income, without losing their currency in the process (like Turkey).

    I’m very skeptical of SSA, LatAM and MENA’s potential. I am somewhat less skeptical of South Asia – India will likely get to where Mexico is and stay there, though with much lower crime and better food. India is also being much more aggressive on climate change early on, which will give rich dividends down the road. The major challenge is related to water stress, but I hope they can overcome it.

    I am less much less optimistic about Pakistan, but not for religious reasons. Bangladesh is now richer than India “despite” being moslem, so I think it has more to do with local culture than religion. The same reason why Islam in places like Indonesia tends to be much more mellow than in Arabia. In this regard, I think Vishnugupta’s comments are colored by his lens as an Indian, he thinks of Islam from a Indian-Pakistani and to a lesser extent MENA context (Arabs have considerable influence on Indian moslems) and projects that to the rest of the world. If Islam was as horrible as he thinks, then Bangladesh would have remained poorer than India and Indonesia would have been poorer than the Philippines, let alone Vietnam.

    Local culture, rather than religion, plays the decisive role. Though religion plays some part.

    More generally, we should be careful in distinguishing broad-based economic convergence among developing countries (where I am a skeptic overall with partial exceptions) and technological progress (which is rapid and ongoing, though highly concentrated in the “Global North”). The two are not the same and should not be conflated.

  57. AP says:
    @Carlo

    Eritreans are like Ethiopians though, so it was two similar peoples engaged in a protracted war. Would Egyptian Arabs be capable of such a thing? Not sure, and not sure if their clear technological advantage would compensate for that.

  58. @Thulean Friend

    Bangladesh was a grand total of $3 richer than India as per projections for 2020.

    It will again trail India this year.Its index of economic complexity is well below that of Pakistan and has no scientific or industrial base to speak off.

    India developed and produced its own Covid vaccine and exports this to countries like Mexico,Iran etc.

    As for Islam not being so bad if you really are a Swede based in Sweden I think you will be treated to more cultural enrichment from this glorious religion than any other European country.People like you truly deserve it.

  59. @china-russia-all-the-way

    There are three components of nominal growth. real growth + inflation + currency appreciation (or depreciation). I haven’t seen anyone put together a single chart that incorporates all three components of the top 10 fastest growing economies over a decade.

    That’s a very valid point. I agree with you that such a list would be better than “real growth” given that “real growth” doesn’t account for currency collapses. Turkey’s growth rates in the 2010s were highly respectable – if you believe the official stats. Yet the lira sunk by a whopping 80%.

    It’s one thing to have your currency swing from a year to the next, quite another for a sustained downward spiral. A country that cannot keep its currency stable shows that its growth model is deeply flawed. Better than stable would be an appreciating currency, like the Thai baht or the Vietnamese dong. Thailand’s growth rates have been nothing to write home about – using the “real GDP” approach but when factoring in consistent currency appreciation then they look much, much better. Despite this, they still averaged a sizable current account surplus through the 2010s.

    FRED has a good indexing feature that makes the indexing to a particular year for numerous countries automatic, however they still use “real GDP” as a base. They are a bit better in that they use constant nominal prices rather than PPP, but it’s still not quite sufficient. You could make a list by inference, by looking at changes in nominal GDP per capita with your own base year, but that work would be very tedious as you’d have to make ~200 calculations and then rank them accordingly.

    • Replies: @128
    , @mal
    , @reiner Tor
  60. @AP

    Ethiopia has also been recovering from Communism, which artificially depresses economic performance.

    LOL – 50 years of post-colonial, often anti-communist, western-installed puppet leaders all throughout African continent causing mass chaos, death, failure, disease, abject poverty, economic insignificance and so on ( while able to exploit the natural resources of that land as the native people remain uneducated)…………and a seriously f*cked in the head sociopathic loser as yourself is somehow trying to falsely blame this on communism based on one country( for a relatively short period) , where most of the others have also experienced some form of disaster? LOL – just about the most idiotic tactics possible..

    For a lying cretin as yourself – the most sensible thing to do would be to just stick at North vs South Korea you imbecile…….although comparing FRG vs GDR would also be a “no-entry” topic for a freak as yourself due to the embarrassing fact that economic disparity between the 2 is much smaller than that between Belarus now with the “Ukrainian” disaster

    50 – 60 years of Communism without any scumbag western subversive and overt interference would have left immeasurably more Africans healthier and more educated you dumb tramp – the 2 most important things to use as a platform for economic growth. Undeniably they would be better

    Anyway, WTF is a wackjob as yourself even on here? – I thought being comprehensively proven to have faked a photograph of a “visit” to Budapest, in a normal world, would have forced a POS as yourself to retire from your “life” on here….but obviously a creep as yourself has no sense of shame. I havent posted on here for about 2 weeks – I look at your filth and it is about half a million extra comments – with the same deranged nonsense about “Ukrainian” “state” and Mazepa and “wages higher than…..”. You’re a sick individual..and you know it.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  61. @Vishnugupta

    It will again trail India this year.

    According to old projections. But now covid is spinning out of control in India.

    Notably, Bangladesh managed to grow through the pandemic. India fell by almost 7%. Why would this year much different? Bangladesh will add to their lead.

    Its index of economic complexity is well below that of Pakistan

    Not really. 60% of Pakistan’s merchandise exports is just cotton. Banglesh is overinvested in textiles but at least it is some form of industrialisation, albeit at a lower end. Much better than just exporting raw commodities.

    As for Islam not being so bad if you really are a Swede based in Sweden I think you will be treated to more cultural enrichment from this glorious religion than any other European country.

    Lol, that talking point is already several years behind its sell-by date. I’m still waiting for my mandatory jizya tax 🙂

    No, culture plays a more important role than religion. Indonesian moslems tend to be better behaved than Christian Arabs in my experience. Anyone who disagrees can be more than welcomed to visit Södertälje. Pre-2015 refugee crisis the vast majority of its MENA inhabitants were Christians. It didn’t matter, their behaviour was similar as to their moslem compatriots.

    Albanians, “despite” being moslems, have integrated faster than Christian Africans in Sweden. This is especially the case for the second generation. You are Indian, so your world view is overly religious. But culture plays a more important role. Religion, of course, still matters (Serbs tend to integrate even faster than Albanians) but between the two, culture is a far stronger predictor.

    In general, I find your comments outside of engineering to be of low quality.

    • Replies: @128
  62. @Vishnugupta

    But from the western perspective…….isn’t it the Islamic Indians/Pakistanis who provide the majority of the doctors ( well trained because relatively high muslim inbreeding with cousins promotes most families to encourage a doctor in the family due to the associated birth deformities, in addition to the status of the job and possible Hindu caste snobbery in not wanting to examine Athletes foot condition of some random western trash), security at nightclubs/bars or anywhere else ( eat meat, but most Hindus don’t so Muslims should be more aggressive and physically stronger in addition to not drinking much alcohol)……….and provide 99.9% of all the “Indian” food in western, “Indian restaurants” again because of eating meat that most Hindu’s don’t , and the food in these restaurants being made by Muslims and with near zero connection to what is actually eat in India?

    Taj Mahal is the only thing whites know about India……….Muslim

    Bollywood has clear and disturbing preference for lighter-skinned actors – majority Muslim, because the further north has the lighter skin

    Khan from the Jungle Book and in that Star Trek or Star wars nonsense – Muslim name, and although they are bad people I think the connotation for why they have muslim names is not because of anti-Islamism – but a subconscious reflection by the authors of the higher status and power they are associated with in India during history.

    To be clear though – for the last 73 years, Indian state has been a far bigger success story than Pakistan

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    , @DNS
  63. @Gerard-Mandela

    Bollywood has had a disproportionate number of Muslim actors because till around the Mid 2000s films were financed by the Mumbai mob which was predominantly Muslim.Now that is no longer the case practically no emerging actor/actress for the past 10 years is a Muslim(I am not an avid follower of Bollywood movies but I can’t recall any new Muslim actor in the past 10 years).

    Yes fair skinned Indian women are considered more attractive in India,this phenomenon is hardly something unique to India.I don’t really see a problem if Indians consider fairer members of their own race beautiful. It would be perverse if a large number of actors/actresses were mixed race or outright foreigners but I can recall no foreigner and only one mixed race actress who made a mark in the Indian film industry till date.

    The West’s cynical courting and weaponization of Islam in its war against communism has a very high off balance sheet cost which they are only beginning to reap.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  64. 128 says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina are at the same level of development as Turkey, Chile and Uruguay is basically a Baltic state or Poland in terms of development, Indonesia’s growth of 5 percent is below par for its GDP per capita level. Venezuela is arguably at the same level of development as Poland or Turkey before Maduro, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Colombia are at the level of Thailand. Even the poorer Central American states like Guatemala and El Salvador have the same level of development as Indonesia.

    • Replies: @AP
  65. 128 says:
    @Thulean Friend

    I do not recall Arab Maronite Lebanese in the US or Latin America being prominent in strong-arm robbery, but YMMV.

  66. mal says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Better than stable would be an appreciating currency, like the Thai baht or the Vietnamese dong.

    Nobody likes appreciating currency – from Switzerland, US, and Germany to China, Japan etc, every country is trying to devalue in order to achieve favorable export position and develop productive human capital.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  67. @Vishnugupta

    Well it’s true that Bengali and Indonesian Islam, excluding Sumatra, is less aggressive and less influenced by modernist interpretation of Islam propagated by Gulf monarchies. Still even so the Islam in Indonesia and Bangladesh is a ticking time bomb, as the repeated pogroms against non-Muslim minorities show us. Sadly those countries are full of dumb people who think that if Islam is from the birthplace of Islam, it must magically be somehow more authentic than their native traditional variations of it, even though Islam of Arabian peninsula has gone through radical changes during the past few centuries. Though maybe this process is dialectically built into Islam?

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    , @DNS
  68. Ethopia will only spiral downwards due to brain drain and Muslims realizing that the US is no longer going to play world police.

    Ironically the same globalists that push for increased immigration to the US are kneecapping these countries by encouraging their best graduates to leave.

    From what I have seen Ethiopians can do pretty well in the US but as with a lot of African immigrants their children fall prey to Black culture and Hollywood garbage. White people are of course blamed for any negative results.

  69. @Gerard-Mandela

    50 years of post-colonial, often anti-communist, western-installed puppet leaders all throughout African continent causing mass chaos,

    Sadly in Ethiopia’s case this was not so. From time immemorial they had an ancient line of Oriental Orthodox emperors, until this noble lineage was extinguished by communist scum, and the emperor was murdered.

  70. @mal

    Nobody likes appreciating currency – from Switzerland, US, and Germany to China, Japan etc, every country is trying to devalue in order to achieve favorable export position and develop productive human capital.

    I would not say they are all trying to devalue since that is quite easy to do through inflation. They try to maintain a certain range to balance imports and exports.

    When US currency gets too low we run into consumer price increases relative to labor because of oil imports. We have been hammered in the past through weak currency along with oil price shocks. Then everyone pulls back on spending and the economy skids.

    You also run into a problem where the other global players starts shorting your country if they think your currency is on the decline. Basically sinking ship bets. This starts affecting everything else.

    • Replies: @mal
  71. @Vishnugupta

    The West’s cynical courting and weaponization of Islam in its war against communism has a very high off balance sheet cost which they are only beginning to reap.

    Oh give me a break that was ages ago. Yes we helped arm the Afghans against the Soviets but they already had other sources of weapons.

    That only feeds into the myth that Islam is normally peaceful and the West is at fault for everything.

    Ever since the creation of Islam there has been a Muslim war somewhere. It is the only mainstream religion that encourages war and taking women from the enemy. There are some really amusing websites that try to argue this isn’t slavery. Yes I’m sure those women who lost their husbands to the enemy can’t wait to marry some smelly Arab who has a whole new religion for them to follow.

  72. songbird says:

    Ethiopians should be put in charge of the Congo as an experiment.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  73. mal says:
    @John Johnson

    Lol there’s nothing easy about inflation. Global Central Banks dream of inflation to reduce debt to GDP ratios but they can’t get it.

    This is not the 70’s – we are living through the lowest inflation rate period in post war history despite all the desperate money printing. We were about to have negative oil prices a year ago just because we took a vacation. Credit eligible consumer is dying out faster than he can be replaced which leads to deflationary pressure. You can see it in money velocity – dead people don’t buy stuff no matter how much money they have. If nobody buys stuff, production has no value.

    We are desperate to devalue currency to snag last foreign eligible debtors and will do absolutely anything to make it happen, if we can. Also why basic income type scheme is inevitable. Also why elites push for mass immigration.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  74. . It has a good record of human accomplishment, being the only country in the region to have developed a literary corpus before European colonialism.

    Such as? Other than the Kebra Negast, compiled by Tigrean scribes, I can’t think of any.

  75. @The Big Red Scary

    As I understand it, some African governments adopted communist label and rhetoric to attract Soviet aid. None of them were actually communist, with central government too weak to qualify as a proper totalitarian regime.

    The dead giveaway is that Ethiopia was never subjected or threatened by a US invasion, unlike every other communist regime in history.

    • Replies: @AP
  76. Blinky Bill says: • Website
    @songbird

    Ask and you shall receive.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: songbird
  77. @Thulean Friend

    India is also being much more aggressive on climate change early on, which will give rich dividends down the road.

    What India does will make no big difference, considering it’s responsible for 7% of world CO2 emissions.

    If India aggressively denies itself faster growth through Green cultism then it will largely just hurt itself.

    Bangladesh is now richer than India “despite” being moslem, so I think it has more to do with local culture than religion

    This is just incorrect either in nominal or PPP GDPpc. The border fence between them was built by India, not Bangladesh.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Replies: @CCG
  78. AP says:
    @128

    Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina are at the same level of development as Turkey, Chile

    No. Argentina (and Turkey, Chile) is significantly more developed than Brazil and Mexico.

    Uruguay is basically a Baltic state or Poland in terms of development

    Uruguay is less developed than Argentina. It’s between Turkey and Bulgaria. Argentina is between Croatia and Romania (more developed).

    Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Colombia are at the level of Thailand

    Generally correct although Ecuador is a little lower.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

    • Replies: @Znzn
  79. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich

    As I understand it, some African governments adopted communist label and rhetoric to attract Soviet aid. None of them were actually communist, with central government too weak to qualify as a proper totalitarian regime.

    You understand wrong. The Marxist-Leninist state of Ethiopia implemented collectivization:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Villagization_(Ethiopia)

    However the Ethiopian communists were indeed less effective than the Soviet ones – a smaller percentage of Ethiopians died from their Communist famine (assuming middle estimate) than Slavs did from theirs.

    The dead giveaway is that Ethiopia was never subjected or threatened by a US invasion, unlike every other communist regime in history

    Probably because it posed no threat.

  80. CCG says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    India also implemented amendments to the Citizenship Act (in 1986 and 2003) to prevent the anchorbabies of Bangladeshi illegals from claiming Indian citizenship under the ‘jus soli’ principle.

  81. @AP

    Like no one else died from hunger in Africa during that time…

    Speaking of Africa, we need a new thread to discuss the Ukrainian regime, and its ongoing preparations to invade Crimea and Donbass. I feel that Karlin lost interest in this topic too soon. Things are picking up.

    • Replies: @AP
  82. Znzn says:
    @AP

    Uruguay’s GDP per capita is higher than Argentina’s.

    • Replies: @AP
  83. SIMP simp says:

    Given the HBD theory of economic growth isn’t the US, and minority-majority states like California, anomalously prosperous? American standards of living are much higher than in whiter Europe.

  84. AP says:
    @Znzn

    Yes but we were discussing HDI, not income.

  85. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Like no one else died from hunger in Africa during that time…

    Not on that scale, and others involved an active civil war:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines

  86. Aedib says:

    HBD theory of economic growth

    What HBD means?

  87. Yevardian says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Well Islam (Sunni, at least) is analogous to Protestantism in a sense, because there is no established hierarchy, any charismatic crank or extremist can easily go off a create his own local cult. All things being equal, masses will more attracted to extravagant claims of personal divine inspiration than reasoned (well, as far as scholastic ‘logic’, goes anyway) theological arguments and existing precedent.

    Although Islam is also just the most naturally puritanical and violently intolerant of all major religions, partially because it’s the most monotheistic. As the world has globalised, all the formerly more tolerant or thoughtful syncretistic local-forms (Sufism in Caucasia and Albania, Ismaiilis, Ahmadis, Turkish Alevis etc) of Islam are being wiped out worldwide, presumably only Twelver Shiism will survive, although Iranian society seems to be rapidly secularising, underneath its veneer of Theocratic Government.
    On that point, it really does seem as if the Islamic Revivalist movement has already crested, as our dear host has also pointed out, Houellebecq’s “Submission” already feels firmly a product of a past decade’s zeitgeist. The death of that red-herring, America’s “Christian Conservatism” needs no comment. Although conversely, it appears Jewish Fundamentalism in Israel is going as strong as ever.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    , @AltanBakshi
  88. @Yevardian

    I have not noticed Bektashism, Aleviism, Ismailism and other forms like Zaidism being in danger.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  89. Yevardian says:
    @AP

    Probably because it posed no threat.

    You could add virtually every Latin American country to that list. I mean there’s the argument of proximity, but still.. Nicuruaga? Grenada? In 1991? Typical svidomy brownnosing of American foreign policy.

    • Replies: @AP
  90. @mal

    Lol there’s nothing easy about inflation.

    No it’s quite easy. Print money.

    Just look at how fast Mugabe wrecked the Zim dollar by printing money to pay his government.

    We are desperate to devalue currency to snag last foreign eligible debtors and will do absolutely anything to make it happen, if we can. Also why basic income type scheme is inevitable. Also why elites push for mass immigration.

    No they want mass immigration for an ever expanding gdp which means an ever expanding stock market.

    They also don’t like that Whites can be crafty and think of ways to disrupt the system. They’d much rather have third worlders that go along with anything if it means a full stomach.

    • Replies: @mal
  91. Shango says:
    @AP

    Even Ethiopia tried commuism? Did it require a famine for them to abandon the idleogy?

  92. Shango says:
    @Vishnugupta

    They are cushitic, which make them so geneticly distant from bantu that they are different race compared to them.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
  93. mal says:
    @John Johnson

    No it’s quite easy. Print money.

    Japan and US and EU have been printing money like crazy, and no luck. Inflation needs effective distribution mechanism which is lacking in the West.

    Just look at how fast Mugabe wrecked the Zim dollar by printing money to pay his government.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP peaked at under 250% GDP at their worst before they hyperinflated it away and is currently running at around 75% GDP.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/government-debt-to-gdp

    At their worst, Zimbabwe government finances were where Japan is today at 240%.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp

    Government financing has little to do with inflation. For that matter, Argentina government debt to GDP ratio is under 100%, much better than Japan or US.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/government-debt-to-gdp

    Inflation is caused by supply chain disruptions (in Zimbabwe, farm confiscation), and foreign exchange market manipulation (in Zimbabwe, they printed money to pay off international IMF loan which caused a bunch of Zimbabwe money to hit forex markets all at once), with demographics adding fuel to the fire.

    With USD being the reserve currency, it will take World War 3 to cause sufficient supply chain collapse and give us inflation we want.

    No they want mass immigration for an ever expanding gdp which means an ever expanding stock market.

    Ever expanding GDP is equivalent to ever expanding consumption. To consume, all those incoming migrants will need income. So some sort of basic income will be instituted to provide means to increase consumption.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  94. AP says:
    @Yevardian

    Proximity and (related) ease of victory. Ethiopia is very far away, poses zero threat, and is large and difficult to conquer. Grenada, not so much (plus US medical students in Grenada).

  95. @AP

    False.

    You spout American propaganda. Not surprising, considering you live in America yourself.

    Yeah yeah, you’re gonna bring up North Korea or USSR or China or some stupid shit. But you conveniently ignore a few things

    1. North Korea has one trading partner (China) and is sanctioned by almost everyone else. No shit it has low economic growth. If everyone sanctioned Japan or South Kroea, they would do much better.

    2. USSR had a better economy than the RF. Even the RFSR was doing better than modern RF (its surprising that RF surpassed peak economic car production even with modern tools and development techniques – only goes to show how dysfunctional RF economy is). Hell, even the Ukranian SSR was more economically developed than modern Ukraine.

    3. China is still centrally planned and recently released their newest 5 year plan (and no they’re not doing away with them) and State Owned Enterprises (like in the USSR) are some of their most productive and largest companies (for example COSCO Shipping.

    Nice try, try again.

    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • LOL: AP
    • Replies: @EldnahYm
    , @Boomthorkell
  96. @AlexanderGrozny

    Because Russia tried America’s ‘lasseiz faire’ capitalism thinking it would make them rich like it made America or Western Europe or South Korea/Japan rich. They ignore a far more important thing though. What is common between Western Europe/South Korea/Japan? They are heavily dependent on the USA remaining successful and dominant as an economic power. They get preferential treatment, lack of sanctions and heavy subsidies (I read somewhere that large SK companies like SK Hynix or Hyundai essentially survive off of government grants that the SK government recieves from the USA and passes down to its companies).

    Russia will never be successful as long as it follows the capitalist model. It needs to identify and nationalize its most important industries (as China did) and through government intervention and investment grow them. There is no other way.

  97. @AP

    died from their Communist famine (assuming middle estimate) than Slavs did from theirs.

    By that metric RF is an abject failure as it lost about 30 million people due to Capitalism (from famine, disease, crime, emigration and amount of potential babies that could have been born but weren’t) after the fall of the USSR.

    https://www.aspeninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/files/content/upload/AspenItalia_section_5_eberstadt.pdf

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @Max Payne
    , @AP
  98. @Agathoklis

    All those are marginal, unlike the traditional Sunni Islam, with it’s Sufis and holy tombs, but this traditional form of Islam is quickly disappearing, almost everywhere where Sunnis reside. In Pakistan and Afghanistan there are constant terrorist attacks against holy Sufi sites, in Saudi Arabia such sites have already been destroyed.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  99. Max Payne says:
    @Xi-jinping

    You want to know how communism is garbage compared to capitalism? Capitalism is so grand it can handle and even INCORPORATE criticism towards itself. Criticizing communism (or the CCP) is a good way to get your family on a bad list. Because communism is all bullshit that crumbles with any half-thought.

    But I guess the older Chinese generation doesn’t want to admit communism failed and capitalism saved them from the “great leap backwards” of Mao, propelling China as a modern industrial nation.

    Would you like to know more?

  100. @Yevardian

    Well Islam (Sunni, at least) is analogous to Protestantism in a sense, because there is no established hierarchy, any charismatic crank or extremist can easily go off a create his own local cult.

    Sorry to nitpick, but you are mistaken. The Protestant movement was established by Martin Luther, and to him the problem wasn’t established church hierarchy, but the Roman bishop as the head of the church. Vast majority of European protestants are Lutherans or Anglicans, who both have a clear ecclesiastical hierarchy, with bishops and priests. Though I don’t know if Luther would have agreed with them having their head of state as the head of the church? How often I have encountered the hypocritical claim among older Western history books that Byzantines and Russian civilizations are somehow more oriental because of their caesaropapism, but what else Lutheranism and Anglicanism are than pure forms of caesaropapism, where government and church are fused into one. In old Lutheran Sweden and Finland priests were not only priests but also magistrates and civil officials of their parishes. I believe that it was also so in Denmark-Norway of the past.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
  101. DNS says:
    @Gerard-Mandela

    .and provide 99.9% of all the “Indian” food in western, “Indian restaurants” again because of eating meat that most Hindu’s don’t , and the food in these restaurants being made by Muslims and with near zero connection to what is actually eat in India?

    Most of the owners of Indian restaurants in the UK seem to be Bangladeshis from Sylhet, with the remaining being mostly Pakistanis from Mirpur.

    In regards to the connection to what is eaten in India, as you may know, India is highly diverse and multi-ethnic with different cultures and cuisines, so there is no real “Indian food”, however the kind of stuff which captures the Western demographics in the West is mostly derived from Mughal tradition – think samosas and biryani.

    Bollywood has clear and disturbing preference for lighter-skinned actors – majority Muslim, because the further north has the lighter skin

    A disproportionate number of Bollywood actors are from North-West India, as Vishnugupta says in comment #66, Bollywood was for a long time run by Daewood Ibrahim’s outfit, D-Company, however nowadays the Muslim dominance seems to be waning as the three Khans (Shah Rukh, Salman and Aamir) get old.

  102. @AltanBakshi

    Yes, as someone with Byzantine ancestry, the Western claim of Caesaropapism always struck me as highly hypocritical.

  103. @Max Payne

    Would you like to know more?

    So glad to hear that you’re going to generate your own power and water, as well as build your own roads to work.

  104. AP says:
    @Xi-jinping

    Because population loss to emigration and lower birth rates are the same as population loss due to starvation and execution.

    Also Communism ushered in a period of declining birth rates from the previously higher level under the Tsars; it was just spending that capital.

    Furthermore – I’m not sure why you believe that Communism wasn’t responsible for the 90s, which was a project of Russian communist insiders rather than some kind of revolution. Yeltsin was a Communist Party member for about 30 years, rising to membership in the Central Committee. Gaudar was from an elite Soviet family, some of an admiral, a long-time member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and an editor of the CPSU ideological journal Communist.

    Russian 90s was when clueless and corrupt Communists attempted to play at capitalism, the upright pigs in Animal Farm, the true final stage of Communism.

  105. songbird says:
    @Max Payne

    Capitalism is so grand it can handle and even INCORPORATE criticism towards itself.

    It can incorporate woke elements from the woke who criticize it.

    Any other criticism of it is sexist or racist – you will get destroyed by criticizing it. Unless you are woke, but in that case, you will probably give it a blank check because it now reflects your woke values.

  106. @AP

    I must say that you have excellent points.

    • Thanks: AP
    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  107. @mal

    Japan and US and EU have been printing money like crazy, and no luck. Inflation needs effective distribution mechanism which is lacking in the West.

    What are you saying? Do you think the fed would like runaway inflation but has no means of doing so? They do the opposite which is try to control inflation. In fact they set inflation goals every year.

    The Fed has said it will not raise interest rates until inflation has exceeded 2% and “we believe we can do it, we believe we will do it. It may take more than three years,” Powell said. The current inflation rate by the Fed’s preferred measure is about 1.3%.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell/fed-to-keep-policy-easy-stay-patient-as-u-s-economy-revives-idUSKBN2AO254

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP peaked at under 250% GDP at their worst before they hyperinflated it away and is currently running at around 75% GDP.

    They have the second highest inflation on record which 79,600,000,000%
    https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/390/inflation/hyper-inflation-in-zimbabwe/

    That is thanks to Bob printing money. He ignored “imperialist” (White) economists and turned on the printing machine.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
    , @mal
  108. @AP

    Russian 90s was when clueless and corrupt Communists attempted to play at capitalism, the upright pigs in Animal Farm, the true final stage of Communism.

    They had dropped communist economics well before that.

    Even in the 60s they were propped up by selling natural resources to Germany.

    These remaining defenders of communism are completely ignorant of history. They *want to believe* that all the suffering and killing for the revolutions were not in vain. Well they were.

    In 1963 the Soviets were buying wheat from EBIL CAPITALIST AMERICA by selling resources to West Germany.
    https://www.rbth.com/business/332948-russia-leading-wheat-exporter

    What a joke. Denouncing capitalists while selling oil and gas so you can buy food from them.

    The modern Marxist is a complete lunatic. Even by WW2 Stalin had realized that a lot of Marxism was fluff and didn’t work in practice.

    • Agree: Carlo
    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
  109. EldnahYm says:
    @John Johnson

    What are you saying? Do you think the fed would like runaway inflation but has no means of doing so? They do the opposite which is try to control inflation. In fact they set inflation goals every year.

    The Bank of Japan falsely believes deflation has been a problem and have been attempting to use monetary policy to induce inflation for decades now. They have failed.

    That is thanks to Bob printing money. He ignored “imperialist” (White) economists and turned on the printing machine.

    No, it’s thanks to using that printed money to pay off foreign loans, a very similar situation to what happened in Weimar Germany. Just printing money doesn’t do anything. Fiscal policy. Monetary policy. There is a difference. To simplify, when you print currency which you exchange for other currency(paying off foreign denominated debt qualifies), you lower the value of your currency relative to that currency(or relative to many currencies), and this means you need to spend ever more of your currency to purchase anything that is influenced by prices in international markets. You get inflation in other words. When you “print” a bunch of currency and do not have a corresponding fiscal policy, you end up with excess bank reserves(unless we are talking about the gold standard or some fixed exchange regime). This does not necessarily lead to inflation, and we have decades of evidence for this.

    I can think of many ways a country could try to deliberately cause inflation, but monetary policy is not the way to do it.

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @John Johnson
  110. @Agathoklis

    Didn’t know that, thanks. Is Ge’ez truly indigenous or is it adapted from an Arabian source?

  111. EldnahYm says:
    @Xi-jinping

    South Korea and Japan, and China for that matter grew their economies by importing Western capital and building up large export industries to export back both to Western countries and other developing markets. Complaining that Western countries don’t allow North Korea to do the same is equivalent to complaining why the West isn’t subsidizing Communist country development.

    Maybe one day the size and sophistication of the Chinese economy will reach a point where countries like North Korea can develop solely by trading with China or other countries not affiliated with the West. Until that happens, you don’t have a good economic argument for Communism.

    China is still centrally planned and recently released their newest 5 year plan (and no they’re not doing away with them) and State Owned Enterprises (like in the USSR) are some of their most productive and largest companies (for example COSCO Shipping.

    Five year plans are just targets set by the government. If that’s all it takes to be Communist, we shouldn’t even be discussing this. Every country is Communist by this definition. We can even call the Kyoto Protocols Communistic, even if we accept your definitions.

    2. USSR had a better economy than the RF. Even the RFSR was doing better than modern RF (its surprising that RF surpassed peak economic car production even with modern tools and development techniques – only goes to show how dysfunctional RF economy is). Hell, even the Ukranian SSR was more economically developed than modern Ukraine.

    Lol.

    • LOL: Xi-jinping
    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
  112. mal says:
    @John Johnson

    What are you saying? Do you think the fed would like runaway inflation but has no means of doing so? They do the opposite which is try to control inflation. In fact they set inflation goals every year.

    Even at 2%, that’s like 20%+ value loss over a decade. But they would like it to be higher, they just lack transmission mechanism take it so.

    Ultimate goal is Federal Reserve Digital Currency where they can throttle inflation at will by crediting accounts directly and locking them up if things overheat. But ultimately, that digital money will come with expiration date so you are looking at total value loss over specified period of time, unless you spend it. So yes, I’d call that higher inflation being desired.

    That is thanks to Bob printing money. He ignored “imperialist” (White) economists and turned on the printing machine.

    They were absolutely correct in doing so. I mean, their initial move to confiscate the farms was dumb and sent them into years long depression, but once there, pulling a Weimar is the right move. Hyperinflation obliterates your banking system and resets your economy.

    You start with nothing, but starting with nothing is vastly better than being a debt slave forever because you can’t even pay interest on the debt service.

    Hyperinflation eliminated most of Zimbabwe external debt and ended their years long depression – their economy grew again until 2019.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/gdp-growth-annual

    They repeated Weimar experience where hyperinflation eliminated the need to pay onerous reparations and put Germany back on solid growth trajectory. It was deflationary Great Depression that caused problems in Weimar, and Hitler solved those problems with military Keynesianism. German government in the 30’s provided demand and Germany again became an industrial power.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  113. @DNS

    Interesting to see how accurate some of this classifications are. The fact that Northern India is listed as Aryan/Dravidian and the south as Dravidian is basically the genetic truth.

    • Replies: @DNS
  114. DNS says:
    @Pumblechook

    Interesting to see how accurate some of this classifications are. The fact that Northern India is listed as Aryan/Dravidian and the south as Dravidian is basically the genetic truth.

    Here is an even better ethnological map of the subcontinent from Herbert Hope Risely’s The People of India published in 1915. My university library actually has an original copy of this work and the map itself is a foldout and considerably large in size, they just don’t make books like they used to I suppose.

  115. @mal

    Even at 2%, that’s like 20%+ value loss over a decade. But they would like it to be higher, they just lack transmission mechanism take it so.

    That is completely ridiculous. You are actually telling me they have no idea how to inflate the currency beyond 2%? Are you saying that the doofus Zim Bob could inflate his currency to a record high by printing but the Fed is incapable?

    You start with nothing, but starting with nothing is vastly better than being a debt slave forever because you can’t even pay interest on the debt service.

    Hyperinflation eliminated most of Zimbabwe external debt and ended their years long depression – their economy grew again until 2019.

    You are just making stuff up. They started with 700 million in loans in 1980 and then defaulted in 2000 because they were borrowing money to pay off old debt.
    https://jubileedebt.org.uk/countries/zimbabwe

    Here is a better way of managing the economy:
    1. Don’t chase of White farmers that know what they are doing
    2. Pay off the debt the old fashioned way by making money and keeping spending to a minimum

    Zimbabwe is what happens when you combine race denial with a dictator ignoring Econ 101 which is what you are doing. People starved and more Whites were killed when the Zim was in the trash. In fact they were just using the dollar at that time. It’s not a success story when people are starving and using currency as toilet paper.

  116. Even at 2%, that’s like 20%+ value loss over a decade. But they would like it to be higher, they just lack transmission mechanism take it so.

    That is completely ridiculous. You are actually telling me they have no idea how to inflate the currency beyond 2%? Are you saying that the doofus Zim Bob could inflate his currency to a record high by printing but the Fed is incapable?

    You start with nothing, but starting with nothing is vastly better than being a debt slave forever because you can’t even pay interest on the debt service.

    Hyperinflation eliminated most of Zimbabwe external debt and ended their years long depression – their economy grew again until 2019.

    You are just making stuff up. They started with 700 million in loans in 1980 and then defaulted in 2000 because they were borrowing money to pay off old debt.
    https://jubileedebt.org.uk/countries/zimbabwe

    Here is a better way of managing the economy:
    1. Don’t chase of White farmers that know what they are doing
    2. Pay off the debt the old fashioned way by making money and keeping spending to a minimum

    Zimbabwe is what happens when you combine race denial with a dictator ignoring Econ 101 which is what you are doing. People starved and more Whites were killed when the Zim was in the trash. In fact they were just using the US dollar at that time. It’s not a success story when people are starving and using currency as toilet paper.

    • Replies: @mal
  117. @EldnahYm

    You get inflation in other words. When you “print” a bunch of currency and do not have a corresponding fiscal policy, you end up with excess bank reserves(unless we are talking about the gold standard or some fixed exchange regime). This does not necessarily lead to inflation, and we have decades of evidence for this.

    Yes it does lead to inflation because governments don’t print massive amounts of currency just to store them in a warehouse. They print money to spend it because their budget is in the red. Not sure why you quoted the word print when that is exactly what happens. Even if Robert had payed his bills by adding zeroes to a central bank account they would still have to print currency for it to work.

    This is very basic economics
    https://allwhybook.com/why-countries-dont-print-unlimited-money-what-is-inflation/

    An excerpt:
    So… with that in mind, Zimbabwe’s inflation, at its peak, reached 6.5 Sextillion percent. Or to put it another way… that number has 22 digits. Can you imagine it? It got so bad that prices doubled every 24 hours.

    So should Bob not have reversed course? Are you saying he was right the whole time while economists outside of Zimbabwe were wrong? Which level should he have gone to? Print enough money to where people don’t pick it up off the ground? As I said in another post by that time the people were already switching to US dollars. That has happened numerous times in other economies where the government erroneously lets inflation run wild under the belief they can control the outcome.

    Zim Bob (an anti-White Marxist) decided that Western economists didn’t know better than him and he turned on the printing machine. Here is a look at what life was like during peak inflation:
    https://www.timesnownews.com/international/article/bread-loaf-for-35-mn-zimbabwean-dollars-inflation-at-231000000-recalling-robert-mugabe-s-zimbabwe/483906

    • Replies: @mal
    , @EldnahYm
  118. @Max Payne

    INCORPORATE criticism towards itself. Criticizing communism (or the CCP) is a good way to get your family on a bad list.

    Lol.

    You sure about that and that you didn’t just pickup a bunch of American propaganda memes?

    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/02/surprise-authoritarian-resilience-china/

    I think Karlin should include susceptibility to propaganda in his IQ measures – whites would score low

  119. @AP

    Because population loss to emigration and lower birth rates are the same as population loss due to starvation and execution.

    Did you miss the part where I said people died of starvation too?

    And its the same because it was the policies of the CAPITALIST government of the RF that made those things happen. So yes its the same.

    Also Communism ushered in a period of declining birth rates from the previously higher level under the Tsars

    Yes. As under any industrializing nation. This is not the communists fault. Compare to levels after 1991 where it fell off a cliff and still hasn’t returned to Soviet levels.

    Furthermore – I’m not sure why you believe that Communism wasn’t responsible for the 90s, which was a project of Russian communist insiders rather than some kind of revolution

    It wasn’t Communism that played a role. Just because people can play the system that exists and move up in it parroting all the correct lines only to bring it down for their own benefit (not for the benefit of the country mind you) isn’t the fault of the system. Its a fault of human nature.

    We can see the same parallels in modern US where people parrot the lines of globohomo to move up in their career but secretly want to undermine it for their own benefit.

    >Russian 90s was when clueless and corrupt Communists attempted to play at capitalism, the upright pigs in Animal Farm, the true final stage of Communism.

    Oh they weren’t clueless. They knew what they were doing. Some of them had CIA ties (Gorbachev’s wife and Gaidar).

    But keep parroting US propaganda LOL.

    You didn’t even know that China had five year plans still or that North Korea/Cuba/Venezuela is sanctioned by many countries do to the US and thus cannot trade with anyone and thus have a shit economy – as economy is based heavily on trade. Which even the Soviets recognized – hence their larger trade fleet than the US in terms of both tonnage and number of ships.

    It’s hilarious people like you and Karlin shill for the modern state of affairs when it does not benefit most Russians at all, only the rich select few.

    LOL at shilling for oligarchs.

    • Replies: @AP
  120. @John Johnson

    It’s not that communist economics didn’t work – its that it made no sense not to trade with other nations just because they have a different system. In fact the Soviet Union never claimed to be COMMUNIST. It was Socialist. It was even in the name – Union of Soviet SOCIALIST Republics.

    A Socialist system is different.

    You seem to have a poor understanding of “Communist Economics” anyway, if you claim such drivel.

  121. @EldnahYm

    South Korea and Japan, and China for that matter grew their economies by importing Western capital and building up large export industries to export back both to Western countries and other developing markets. Complaining that Western countries don’t allow North Korea to do the same is equivalent to complaining why the West isn’t subsidizing Communist country development.

    So? The USSR did the same too. The USSR would bring in experts from America/Britain/Germany/Italy/etc to help it buildup industry and to teach its own people what was needed to build their country in the 20’s. Nobody saw an issue with it then. Furthermore, Nazi Germany brought in Soviet equipment and Engineers to help it rebuild after Versaille. The fact that countries use the talent of other nations to build themselves up is pure pragmatism. Why would they not?

    The US had no problems with exporting equipment and talent into China because it was politically suitable. Nor has it any problems with working with Communist Vietnam when it suits its interests.

    The US was built on stealing German and British tech. That isn’t a very good argument for Capitalism if you need to steal other countries tech to build your own economy.

    Its not ‘complaining’ to mention that sanctions on North Korea significantly hinder its development.

    Its not an argument against communism to mention that due to the fact that North Korea has little oil in its territory and cannot import more because nobody will trade with it for fear of US sanctions (and there are many people interested even in America itself), meaning that it cannot operate industrial farms and feed its people properly.

    Maybe one day the size and sophistication of the Chinese economy will reach a point where countries like North Korea can develop solely by trading with China or other countries not affiliated with the West. Until that happens, you don’t have a good economic argument for Communism.

    Lol.

    Lol.

    Lol. The RF’s economy is smaller than that of Texas (and Texas isn’t even a country). Or Italy. So much for Capitalist “efficiency” eh.

    USSR had its own electronics industry and its own programming languages, chip architectures, and produced computers at home, for example (hence Buran rocket automation). RF can’t even get GLONASS to work properly (which btw was a Soviet innovation – just like everything else RF lives off of) because sanctions prevent it sourcing parts from France and other western countries. LOL. The RF has to source parts for national defense from hostile powers….lol

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
  122. AP says:
    @Xi-jinping

    “Because population loss to emigration and lower birth rates are the same as population loss due to starvation and execution.”

    Did you miss the part where I said people died of starvation too?

    I thought I would embarrass you less.

    In your mind, how many Russians died during the 1990s famine? Any pictures of the stricken famine victims?

    And its the same because it was the policies of the CAPITALIST government of the RF that made those things happen. So yes its the same.

    So in your world, emigrating is the same as starving to death. A person not born is the same as a person starved to death. Good to know.

    Also Communism ushered in a period of declining birth rates from the previously higher level under the Tsars

    Yes. As under any industrializing nation.

    The industrialization in Germany did not lead to a decline in birth rate as sharp as in the USSR.

    Furthermore – I’m not sure why you believe that Communism wasn’t responsible for the 90s, which was a project of Russian communist insiders rather than some kind of revolution

    It wasn’t Communism that played a role.

    It did. Communism creating the morality and enabled people with that morality to reach the highest levels of the communist system. Again, these were not revolutionaries. Architects of the 90s were Communist insiders. Products of the Communist system and its heirs.

    Just because people can play the system that exists and move up in it parroting all the correct lines only to bring it down for their own benefit (not for the benefit of the country mind you) isn’t the fault of the system.

    So the Communist system was such that people like Yeltsin and Gaidar could reach its heights. And somehow the system was not to blame for that. It just happened. LOL.

    We can see the same parallels in modern US

    Modern US isn’t the Russian 90s.

    Oh they weren’t clueless. They knew what they were doing. Some of them had CIA ties (Gorbachev’s wife and Gaidar).

    So Communist system, was so incompetent that it enabled the CIA to infiltrate and take it over. Even better.

    You didn’t even know that China had five year plans

    I didn’t? Is that like the Russian Famine of the 90s?

    It’s hilarious people like you and Karlin shill for the modern state of affairs when it does not benefit most Russians at all, only the rich select few.

    The majority of Russians live better now than they did under Communism. You probably weren’t born when there was Communism (I doubt you were even born under Yeltsin, at least I hope for your sake that is the case), but the place was simply squalid under Communism.

    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
  123. @AP

    I thought I would embarrass you less.

    I think you’re an embarrassment to yourself and this forum

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/how-russia-starves-famine-1992

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/191379/Drought-halts-Russia-grain-exports

    So in your world, emigrating is the same as starving to death. .

    Emigrating is still loss of population. It’s the same as a person dying in demographic terms as these people are unlikely to return to the country of origin. So they’re as good as dead.

    A person not born is the same as a person starved to death. Good to know

    Says the guy using “30 million killed by Mao’s Cultural Revolution” statistic. Funny it was calculated under the same principle. But that’s okay to use it because its suits your narrative lol

    It did. Communism creating the morality and enabled people with that morality to reach the highest levels of the communist system. Again, these were not revolutionaries. Architects of the 90s were Communist insiders. Products of the Communist system and its heirs.

    Tsarism created the morality and enabled people with that morality to reach the highest levels of the Tsarist system. So by that logic the people who brought down Tsarism and implemented Bolshevism were not revolutionaries. The Architects of the Bolshevik Revolution were Tsarist insiders. Products of the Tsarist system and its heirs? Sounds about right.

    But no thats false. You are not familiar with the morals that the Communist system espoused. They saw the West and wanted to have drug and bitches and mansions and so exchanged one for the other.

    Modern US isn’t the Russian 90s.

    Doesn’t matter. The principle is the same. You’re dense if you can’t see the parallels and see relationships amongst related concepts and how one relates to the other.

    So Communist system, was so incompetent that it enabled the CIA to infiltrate and take it over. Even better.

    So Ukraine in 2014 was so incompetent that it enabled the CIA to infiltrate it and cause a revolution? Glad we agree.

    The majority of Russians live better now than they did under Communism.

    By what metric?

    More than half the country is in abject poverty lol.

    “However, in Russia, Ukraine and Bulgaria, more than half currently say things are worse for most people now than during the communist era.”

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/15/european-public-opinion-three-decades-after-the-fall-of-communism/

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/11/russia-rich-richer-poor-poorer

    Sounds like that’s only in your and Karlin’s delusional imaginations. An opinion most Russians do not share.

    Keep embarassing yourself further. Lets here what you come up with, i’m rather curious what new drug addled things you’ll say.

    You probably weren’t born when there was Communism

    I was. And you never lived in Communist Russia and go around self-importantly spouting nonsense all day LOL.

    Get out of here and stop being an embarrassment to everyone lol

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  124. AP says:
    @Xi-jinping

    I thought I would embarrass you less.

    I think you’re an embarrassment to yourself and this forum

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/how-russia-starves-famine-1992

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/191379/Drought-halts-Russia-grain-exports

    No deadly famine mentioned in your links. Is reading hard?

    “So in your world, emigrating is the same as starving to death. ”

    Emigrating is still loss of population. It’s the same as a person dying in demographic terms as these people are unlikely to return to the country of origin. So they’re as good as dead.

    Thanks for confirming that in your world emigrating is the same as being starved to death.

    Are you typing from your country of origin? If not, my condolences on your horrific fate.

    Modern US isn’t the Russian 90s.

    Doesn’t matter. The principle is the same. You’re dense if you can’t see the parallels and see relationships amongst related concepts and how one relates to the other.

    Like the same principle that emigrating and having fewer children is the same as being starved to death, right? LOL.

    So Communist system, was so incompetent that it enabled the CIA to infiltrate and take it over. Even better.

    So Ukraine in 2014 was so incompetent that it enabled the CIA to infiltrate it and cause a revolution? Glad we agree.

    So now you compare the Communist system you love, to Ukraine under Yanukovich. LOL.

    The majority of Russians live better now than they did under Communism.

    By what metric?

    More than half the country is in abject poverty lol.

    Russian poverty rate is 13%. By Western capitalist standards, 90% of Soviets were living in poverty.

    “However, in Russia, Ukraine and Bulgaria, more than half currently say things are worse for most people now than during the communist era.”

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/15/european-public-opinion-three-decades-after-the-fall-of-communism/

    If you believe that poll reflects actual economic circumstances you must believe that Ukraine has fared no differently than Russia since 1991. And that Bulgaria has done much worse than Ukraine. We can add that to your other strange beliefs.

    You probably weren’t born when there was Communism

    I was.

    In the USSR?

    And you never lived in Communist Russia

    I visited Soviet Ukraine, so I saw communism with my own eyes. A very poor place.

    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
  125. @AP

    No deadly famine mentioned in your links. Is reading hard?

    Clearly you missed the word “famine” in the title.

    Plus you never stated ‘deadly famine’ in your previous post. Stop moving the goal posts

    Thanks for confirming that in your world emigrating is the same as being starved to death.

    Thanks for confirming you don’t understand how emigrating also contributes to demographic collapse.

    Like the same principle that emigrating and having fewer children is the same as being starved to death, right? LOL

    LOL. Yup can confirm that you’re dense. You can’t see the relationship between people kowtowing to the SJW at work in the US and how thats similar to what happened in the USSR.

    Sounds like you can’t read if you confuse that with people dying. LOL

    So now you compare the Communist system you love, to Ukraine under Yanukovich. LOL.

    Yes. Quite an apt comparison, don’t you think? Very applicable.

    y Western capitalist standards, 90% of Soviets were living in poverty.

    You mean by delusional AP standards? Because clearly Russians disagree with you. I think they know the situation in their own country better than some “Ukranian” that never lived nor was born in Ukraine and sitting here pontificating on the matter LOL

    If you believe that poll reflects actual economic circumstances

    So you’re telling me that Russians are delusional and have no idea what’s going on in their life or in their own country and that you know better than them? Am I right?

    you must believe that Ukraine has fared no differently than Russia since 1991. And that Bulgaria has done much worse than Ukraine. We can add that to your other strange beliefs.

    LOL what? That made no sense. Sounds like you not only can’t read, it also sounds like you can’t write.

    I visited Soviet Ukraine, so I saw communism with my own eyes. A very poor place.

    LOL. From your post history, you weren’t even in Soviet Ukraine. You were in post-Soviet Ukraine after its economy collapsed.

    And visiting for one week =/= ‘seeing communism with your own eyes’ LOL

    That’s like going to a new york inner city for one week and talking about how you saw “American capitalism with your own eyes. A very poor place”

    Give it up AP and admit it, you’re an embarrassment.

    • Replies: @AP
  126. @Xi-jinping

    I don’t want to get into an extended debate with someone who makes statistics up, but will address this one point:

    The Architects of the Bolshevik Revolution were Tsarist insiders.

    Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, etc. were not “insiders” by any stretch of the imagination. They were political emigres, convicts, ethnic minority nationalists.

    Their equivalents today would be the Navalnys and Khodorkovskys.

    The February Revolution was made by insiders – now yes, that’s a fair assessment. So was the dissolution of the USSR.

    • Agree: AP, Not Raul
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Xi-jinping
  127. mal says:
    @John Johnson

    That is completely ridiculous. You are actually telling me they have no idea how to inflate the currency beyond 2%? Are you saying that the doofus Zim Bob could inflate his currency to a record high by printing but the Fed is incapable?

    That’s right. At the moment, neither US Government nor the Fed can create inflation they want. Despite US debt to GDP ratio going over 100% and US printing $trillions.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

    You are just making stuff up. They started with 700 million in loans in 1980 and then defaulted in 2000 because they were borrowing money to pay off old debt.

    Your very own link states that Zimbabwe debt to GDP is 50%. They had almost a decade of decent growth following a decade of depression. Hyperinflation helped them end the depression.

    1. Don’t chase of White farmers that know what they are doing

    Different story.

    2. Pay off the debt the old fashioned way by making money and keeping spending to a minimum

    Totally wrong. Debt that can’t be paid shouldn’t be paid. Zimbabwe made the right move.

    Zimbabwe is what happens when you combine race denial with a dictator ignoring Econ 101 which is what you are doing. People starved and more Whites were killed when the Zim was in the trash. In fact they were just using the US dollar at that time. It’s not a success story when people are starving and using currency as toilet paper.

    Again, they went through a depression while trying to make payments. Post hyperinflation, they returned to growth. We are not talking about farm confiscation, we are talking about what they have done to get out of the problem they created.

    It’s not about “success story”, it’s about not being a debt slave forever. Hyperinflation or default is a correct economic move considering the alternative.

    Zimbabwe is no different from US or Japan in that sense. Western economies are very weak and unstable, likely weaker than Zimbabwe. Just a slight rise in interest rates or a slowdown in money printing will completely obliterate US or Japanese economy. We are not printing money to be a “success story”, we are printing money to survive. There is no alternative. Inflation is the only way out.

  128. AP says:
    @Xi-jinping

    “No deadly famine mentioned in your links. Is reading hard?”

    Clearly you missed the word “famine” in the title.

    Plus you never stated ‘deadly famine’ in your previous post. Stop moving the goal posts

    Clearly you missed the multiple references to “death by starvation.” Reading really is hard for you.

    We were discussing death by starvation (i.e., deadly famine) and now you want to talk about non-deadly famine. Stop moving the goalposts.

    “Thanks for confirming that in your world emigrating is the same as being starved to death.”

    Thanks for confirming you don’t understand how emigrating also contributes to demographic collapse.

    Now you are moving the goalposts from mass death to “demographic collapse.”

    As I already explained, USSR was spending the capital of high birth rates inherited from the tsars so its demographics were less dire. But decline they did, at a rate higher than that of industrializing Germany decades earlier.

    So now you compare the Communist system you love, to Ukraine under Yanukovich. LOL.

    Yes. Quite an apt comparison, don’t you think? Very applicable.

    Good that you admit that the Communist system was as bad and ridiculous as Yanukovich’s system. It was even worse but at least you are starting to learn.

    Western capitalist standards, 90% of Soviets were living in poverty.

    You mean by delusional AP standards

    I know that sharing an apartment with three generations, not owning a car (or having to wait 7 years to get one), waiting in line for food and other necessities, etc. is how poor people live. At least in the civilized world. Soviets could compare themselves favorably to sub-Saharan Africans though.

    If you believe that poll reflects actual economic circumstances

    So you’re telling me that Russians are delusional and have no idea what’s going on in their life

    Not at all. I’m telling you that you don’t know how to reason at an even basic level, as demonstrated by your complete failure to understand what I wrote – which is clear by your response. Try again. Have your mommy explain it to you, if necessary.

    And visiting for one week =/= ‘seeing communism with your own eyes’ LOL

    That’s like going to a new york inner city for one week and talking about how you saw “American capitalism with your own eyes. A very poor place”

    Now, I was there for 2 weeks and visited Kiev, Lviv, two oblast capitals, and some villages. I stayed at Intourist hotels in Kiev in Lviv – fancy by Soviet standards, poor by Western standards – and in family apartments elsewhere. But it doesn’t take long to see how squalid the USSR was and how poorly the educated people lived in that dump.

    From your post history, you weren’t even in Soviet Ukraine. You were in post-Soviet Ukraine after its economy collapsed.

    I visited in 1990. USSR collapsed a year later in 1991. 1990 comes before 1991.

    So you can’t read, you can’t reason, and you don’t know how time works.

    Normally I would never have fun at the expense of a mentally deficient person such as yourself (it is a cruel thing to do) and would simply ignore you , but since you are a Communist you deserve it.

    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
  129. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    One quibble, Khodorkovsky was too young to have been a big shot in Soviet times but he was deputy head of the Komsomol at his university, so he was a young up and coming Communist. his early rise highlights the Soviet-insider nature of 1990s Russia:

    From wikipedia:

    After his graduation in 1986, Khodorkovsky began to work full-time for the Komsomol, which was a typical way of entering upon a Soviet political career. “After several years of working mostly to collect Komsomol dues from fellow students”, noted Gessen, “he could expect to be appointed to a junior position in city management someplace far from the capital.”

    But instead of following this path, he exploited “quasi-official and often extra-legal business opportunities” and began to make a business career for himself. With partners from Komsomol, and technically operating under its authority, Khodorkovsky opened his first business in 1986, a private café. The enterprise was made possible by the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s programme of perestroika and glasnost.[21]

    The introduction of perestroika enabled Khodorkovsky to use his connections within the communist structures to gain a foothold in the developing free market. With the help of some powerful people, he started his business activities under the cover of Komsomol. Friendship with another Komsomol leader, Alexey Golubovich, had a significant impact on his growing success, since Golubovich’s parents held top positions in Gosbank, the State Bank of the USSR.[19] Among the businesses in which Khodorkovsky “tried his hand” were “importing personal computers and, according to some sources, counterfeit alcohol.” In addition, he “ventured into finance, devising ways to squeeze cash out of the Soviet planned-economy behemoth.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  130. mal says:
    @John Johnson

    So should Bob not have reversed course? Are you saying he was right the whole time while economists outside of Zimbabwe were wrong? Which level should he have gone to? Print enough money to where people don’t pick it up off the ground?

    He printed until he got debt to GDP to a reasonable number and got rid of excessive debt and ended a years long depression.

    He was right and economists outside Zimbabwe are morons since the only reason they have jobs is because the West is trying to do the same thing. If major consumer countries (US, China, EU block) stopped printing money and tried to balance budgets or whatever, we would all go live in tent cities like during Great Depression.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  131. EldnahYm says:
    @Xi-jinping

    So? The USSR did the same too. The USSR would bring in experts from America/Britain/Germany/Italy/etc to help it buildup industry and to teach its own people what was needed to build their country in the 20’s. Nobody saw an issue with it then. Furthermore, Nazi Germany brought in Soviet equipment and Engineers to help it rebuild after Versaille. The fact that countries use the talent of other nations to build themselves up is pure pragmatism. Why would they not?

    The US had no problems with exporting equipment and talent into China because it was politically suitable. Nor has it any problems with working with Communist Vietnam when it suits its interests.

    Thanks for confirming my point. The experience of World War 2 might suggest that those countries made a mistake.

    The US was built on stealing German and British tech. That isn’t a very good argument for Capitalism if you need to steal other countries tech to build your own economy.

    Lol. Countries don’t need to re-invent the wheel to develop.

    Its not ‘complaining’ to mention that sanctions on North Korea significantly hinder its development.

    China being North Korea’s dominant trade partner is inevitable. If North Korea’s exports to China were say 80% instead of 90%, and it had more imports from other non-hostile Asian countries, would the country be significantly more developed? I doubt it. I’m essentially describing countries like Mongolia or Myanmar, which aren’t particularly rich. The very existence of South Korea means North Korea is always at a disadvantage except for raw materials.

    Widespread sanctions against North Korea have not even been applied for the majority of the country’s existence. You’re also ignoring the fact that isolation from much of the outside world has often been a policy of the North Korean government, economic self-sufficiency was a Juche principle. You also want to ignore the fact that some of those sanctions were responses to North Korean bombings and sinking of ships in South Korea. Sanctions also don’t explain many of the crazier policies of Kim Jong-Il and the people around him. Your starting point is the fact that sanctions against North Korea have occurred, and with that starting point are trying to explain away all of North Korea’s problems.

    Its not an argument against communism to mention that due to the fact that North Korea has little oil in its territory and cannot import more because nobody will trade with it for fear of US sanctions (and there are many people interested even in America itself), meaning that it cannot operate industrial farms and feed its people properly.

    Too bad for you the world didn’t begin in 2006.

    Lol. The RF’s economy is smaller than that of Texas (and Texas isn’t even a country). Or Italy. So much for Capitalist “efficiency” eh.

    USSR had its own electronics industry and its own programming languages, chip architectures, and produced computers at home, for example (hence Buran rocket automation). RF can’t even get GLONASS to work properly (which btw was a Soviet innovation – just like everything else RF lives off of) because sanctions prevent it sourcing parts from France and other western countries. LOL. The RF has to source parts for national defense from hostile powers….lol

    On North Korea your argument is that the country can’t develop because foreign powers won’t trade with it. On the Soviet Union your argument is that the country was better because it was self-sufficient. Lol.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Xi-jinping
  132. EldnahYm says:
    @John Johnson

    Yes it does lead to inflation because governments don’t print massive amounts of currency just to store them in a warehouse. They print money to spend it because their budget is in the red. Not sure why you quoted the word print when that is exactly what happens. Even if Robert had payed his bills by adding zeroes to a central bank account they would still have to print currency for it to work.

    Have you been living under a rock the last decade? We have had a massive increase in the money supply and zero inflation. Japan has decades of it, and deflation. One of the great things about economics is it’s a field where empirical evidence doesn’t count for much.

    If you read the literature about the “Great Moderation,” it’s all trying to explain how independent Central Banks are responsible for low inflation and everything great in the world. Or if you read Milton Friedman/Anna Schwartz’s work, they believe the Great Depression was a result of the Central Bank failing to increase the money supply, and the New Keynesians more or less agree. Contrary to your fantasy view, the idea of increasing the money supply without an accompanying fiscal policy is mainstream dogma. The exact situation today is a result of mainstream economic ideas which you are obviously not familiar with.

    Are you saying he was right the whole time while economists outside of Zimbabwe were wrong?

    I’m not interested in discussing Zimbabwe, mal can do so if he wishes. But you have to be subhuman to think economics aren’t wrong all the time.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  133. @mal

    Just the right time for deploying CBDC, social credit system and ultimately some Gates-style depopulation tech.

    Let’s bet on whether some of the above policies are reactions to capitalism’s crisis (Bashibuzuk’s “Westroika”) or that the whole Keynesian money supply-rigging thing is intended to reach this point in the first place (as some libertarians and conspiracy “theorists” argue).

  134. @EldnahYm

    Studying Austrian Economics will clear up lots of confused ideas in here. Monetary inflation is almost always confused with consumer price inflation which is what CPI tells (and CPI is rigged if you listen to shadowstats. One of the main goals of inflationism, besides inflation targeting, is propping up asset prices, which only trickle to consumer prices. It’s indeed a fragile balance, and it’s getting topsy-turvier. In the case of Japan, massive money-printing ultimately approaches to masked state capitalism as the central bank’s asset value becoming greater than the GDP and owning an inordinate share of the bond and stock market.

    • Replies: @mal
  135. mal says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Austrian econ criticism of modern bubble economy is correct, but their solutions are unworkable in practice.

    I mean, imagine if we went to sound money, market based interest rates, and balanced budgets. It would completely destroy US economy. It would be 2008 all over again with millions thrown out of jobs and houses except this time there would be no coming back up. Tent cities here we come.

  136. Dmitry says:
    @AP

    Egypt is a significant military power since the middle 20th century, despite their third world economic dysfunction.

    In the 1960s-1970s, they had wars against Israel, where there were the largest tank battles since Second World War. This is a state capacity that would not be possible for most developed countries today.

    Although Egypt has been in somekind of rapid cultural decline, as they were the leaders of Arab culture in the 1970s, but their cultural prestige in the Arab world has apparently disappeared in recent decades.

    Arabs aren’t known for their bravery in war

    I doubt that Arab soldiers lack bravery, and neither is that the determining factor for the outcome of these conflicts. ​Iraqi soldiers in Gulf War in T-72s, needed to be a lot braver than American soldiers in M1 Abrams, even to sit inside their tanks in the battle.

    Iraqi soldiers were fighting in T-72 tanks, where it was a guaranteed death for them, while American soldiers were exposed to only minimal chance of death inside the much more advanced M1 Abrams tanks. So the bravery needed to be higher on the side of Iraqi soldiers, and that was a bad sign for their chance of winning the war.


    In terms of Ethiopia vs. Egypt.

    Egypt will use M1 Abrams tanks, and their airforce has F-16. Ethiopia will use some Su-27 and T-72.

    It looks like they have Soviet epoch SAMs around the dam. So maybe they could shoot down a few of Egypt’s hundreds of F-16s, while the dam would be bombed.

    • Replies: @AP
  137. AP says:
    @Dmitry

    I don’t follow this region closely so please take what I say with a grain of salt.

    In the 1960s-1970s, they had wars against Israel, where there were the largest tank battles since Second World War. This is a state capacity that would not be possible for most developed countries today.

    The hordes of Egyptians collapsed really quickly, right? Also, don’t Russian advisors have a very low opinion of Arabs, whom they fight and train?

    Ethiopians on the other hand have sustained years of warfare.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Dmitry
  138. A123 says:
    @AP

    More recent developments are quite important in this case.

    • Egypt’s military became much more important and professional.
    • U.S. Aid (a.k.a. MIC Exports) gave Egypt more armor than they could possibly need.

    Reportedly, the Egyptian Army strips some of the delivered tanks to create an inventory of spares. And, then uses that resource to train… and train *hard*. Being able to burn out tank engines and break suspension parts while pressing maneuver training is almost unheard of.

    Egypt would likely run over Sudan/Ethiopia opposition the way U.S. armor routed Iraqi forces in open territory. Whether they can be successful in urban fighting is a different question. However, a well conceived Egyptian strategy based on controlling water resources requires little to no urban conflict. As long as they do not over reach, Egypt can achieve their military objectives while staying with their strengths.

    PEACE 😇

  139. @Xi-jinping

    No disagreement on 1.

    In regards to two though, the Russian Empire was doing better than the USSR in most of its comparable (meaning no one was producing jets or large numbers of tanks in 1912) metrics. Imagine a hundred years of uninterrupted Tsarist prosperity!

  140. @mal

    The Japanese yen is actually not at all overvalued, rather the opposite, so I don’t even understand your point.

    • Replies: @mal
  141. @Thulean Friend

    the lira sunk by a whopping 80%.

    But I guess there was a lot of inflation in Turkey in the meantime. So perhaps this just means Turkey had a much higher inflation rate than the major first world economies, much like how Italy or Greece had a higher rate of inflation before they committed economic suicide by joining the Eurozone. So the only information you can glean from this is that Turkey would not be a good fit for the Eurozone, but probably you knew that to begin with.

  142. mal says:
    @reiner Tor

    My point is that there’s a better way to spend all those $trillions of dollars in free money that Japanese got. I don’t begrudge Japanese for printing that money, so yen valuation is irrelevant to my point. I approve their monetary policy and disapprove fiscal one.

  143. Dmitry says:
    @AP

    Well, I’m no expert either but just my opinion from reading a few things…

    hordes of Egyptians collapsed

    In the wars in the Sinai, because their supply lines were cut, and in 1967 they were being bombed from the air (thousands of their soldiers were being killed by napalm). So I don’t think Egyptian bravery is the problem, but inferiority of maneuver (in 1956 and 1973) and (in 1967) destruction of their air forces.

    Russian advisors have a very low opinion of Arabs, whom they fight and train

    Of the incompetent Syrian army, which has been more of a sectarian instrument of the Alawite minority in Syria, and had large defections in 2011.

    But Arab armies are not necessarily so uniform. Armies of Egypt and Jordan are described as a much more professional army. In Egypt, the army is not a sectarian instrument, and army is the prestigious institution in Egypt, and many of the Egyptian army officers have had American training.

    Obama maybe stopped the training of the Egyptian army for some time, after the 2013 coup against Morsi. But since Trump, the Egyptian army is trained by America again. So it is still an army which has been partly trained by a superpower.

    Ethiopians on the other hand have sustained years of warfare.

    Recent fighting seems more like counter-insurgency, than conventional war between symmetrical forces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War

    Presumably, if there was unfortunately a war – then surely Egypt will have the ability to bomb the dam.

    Then Ethiopia could probably invade Sudan, to try to reconquer territories it claims inside Sudan. But Egypt and Sudan signed a defense pact, so perhaps Egypt would deploy the land army to defend Sudan.

    • Replies: @A123
  144. A123 says:
    @Dmitry

    I don’t think Egyptian bravery is the problem, but inferiority of maneuver (in 1956 and 1973) and (in 1967) destruction of their air forces.

    Armies of Egypt and Jordan are described as a much more professional army. In Egypt, the army is not a sectarian instrument, and army is the prestigious institution in Egypt, and many of the Egyptian army officers have had American training.

    I concur.

    Professional militaries learn from mistakes. Egypt was beaten in maneuver when using armor in the Sinai. Egyptian armor now trains maneuver as a top priority. The armor also trains with the fuel and ammo supply support troops. They have established doctrine to resupply “forward(?)”, but “safely(?)” behind, engaged armor.

    As a civilian, the terms “safe” and “forward” seem mutually exclusive to me. If someone with Armor Corps experience wants to offer up a professional analysis, I will gladly defer to a subject matter expert.

    Presumably, if there was unfortunately a war – then surely Egypt will have the ability to bomb the dam. Then Ethiopia could probably invade Sudan, to try to reconquer territories it claims inside Sudan.

    The dam is on the Sudan-Ethiopia border. If Sudan gives free transit, Egypt should be able to obtain the dam intact. Trying to cross hills & mountains & passes to capture Addis Ababa would be quite difficult. However, a sound Egyptian “water objective” strategy does not require capturing Ethiopian urban areas.

    Sudan would bear the brunt of a dam burst. Odds are any Sudan-Egypt free transit deal would include avoiding structural damage. Also, controlling an incredibly valuable asset, like the dam, would give Egypt a huge ACE In The Hole during post conflict armistice negotiations. If the dam is blown up, crippling Ethiopia’s economy, that would generate decades of ill will from the broad population.

    A sound Egyptian strategy, executed well, would create a strong foundation for Winning The Peace, in addition to winning the war.

    PEACE 😇

  145. @AltanBakshi

    Yes Sufis are being pushed to the dustbin of history by the Salafi. Sufis made a comeback in Caucasus and Algeria though after local wars and they hold strong in Morocco, Indonesia / Malaysia and to some extent Turkey.

    I think Turkey is having it right on the mix of secular (Alevi ?) /traditional (Sufi) / and Protestant LARPing (Salafi) Islam. They can come up with something interesting, if they can keep this balance, survive the current economic crisis and avoid the consequences of Erdogan’s reckless foreign policy.

  146. @AltanBakshi

    I partially agree with both Xi and AP. Also, there is probably no true capitalism in today’s RusFed just like there was no true Communism in the late USSR. Perhaps both might be seen as transitional social organization patterns ? That is transition into and out of crisis?

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  147. @AP

    Excellent post. That’s how it was done back then, through the right connections and gaming the system for one’s benefit. Two minor points though; first this is still the way it is done in RusFed and second there was a strong “gray” parallel economy in the late USSR even before Perestroika. Цеховики made millions despite technically being illegal.

    https://finance.rambler.ru/other/41487139-na-chem-zarabatyvali-tsehoviki-pri-brezhneve/

  148. @Bashibuzuk

    there is probably no true capitalism in today’s RusFed

    And could you tell me where is the land of “true capitalism?” In a “true capitalism” there is no state intervention, no keeping of bankrupt banks and companies alive, with involuntary transfers of people’s money. In a “true capitalism” EU would not direct money to Greek banks, in a “true capitalism,” America would not print money all the time and give it to those who are “too big to fail.”

    I partially agree with both Xi and AP.

    Same. It’s a bit of of who was first, like chicken or egg problem, with the question of where did Russia’s problems originate in the 90’s. Maybe Russia’s problems were created by the fall of Soviet Union and Communism, or maybe because the Soviet state and it’s elites were already so rotten, that big crash was just a matter of time

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    , @Xi-jinping
  149. @AltanBakshi

    True Capitalism us like true Communism, it exists only in a few zealots’ imagination.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  150. @Bashibuzuk

    That’s why I quit believing in libertarianism very recently after reading Dugin’s book.

  151. @Anatoly Karlin

    Never have I made my statistics up. If you recall, I had a long thread breaking down Soviet industrial production vis a vis the USA as well as Tsarist industrial/scientific production in 1912 vis-a-vis the USA. But yes lets ignore it because it doesn’t fit your narrative of how the world ought to be.

    Lenin was in Swiss exile (again as I had mentioned in another thread you conveniently “missed”) and had few contacts with the Germans or anyone else. In fact he almost missed the Tsarist abdication (heard about it by happenstance) and had some friends in the German secret service organize transport back to Russia, where he took control of a fledgling Bolshevik movement (that at the time was under the auspices of the much more powerful Petrograd Soviet). This is all in the wiki page I posted some time ago.

    The difference between Navlany, Khodorkovsky, Yeltsin and Lenin was that Lenin ‘gave lip service’ to the Germans and promised them much…and never delivered. Or should I say delivered, but not in the way they expected. It’s kind of like how Osama bin Laden delivered to the CIA, but not quite in the way they expected.

    Unlike Navalny, Khodorkovsky and Yeltsin – Lenin did not sell off Russia to the highest bidder. In fact the first thing he did when he came to power was banned food speculations and hoarding to relieve some of the burden on the peasants.

    Here are some of Lenins last works before he died. In them you see him that he desperately wants the soviets/Russians to succeed and outlast him. The topics are about good statecraft and policies that will effect the near future of the USSR. Reorganizing the Workers’ and Peasants’ Inspection, improving the education system, a cooperative economy and its role in the NEP, the prospect of cultural revolution, reducing bureaucracy and in general the future of the USSR and the world

    https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/subject/last/index.htm

    It wasn’t even Lenin who brought down the Tsar, it was a combination of the Tsar’s own general ineptness (as I have shown in the thread with the screenshots and stats), WW1, leading to widespread unrest. The attempts to form a ‘provisional government’ proved unsuccessful as they ultimately had no power within Russia proper, as Russia (before the Bolshevik’s came to power) was de facto ruled by the Petrograd Soviet (which ironically had headquarters in the same building as the Provisional Government).

    The point is this – the architects of the Bolshevik Revolution were Tsarist insiders because the Bolsheviks were tied to the Petrograd Soviet and would have been impossible without them.

  152. @AP

    Clearly you missed the multiple references to “death by starvation.” Reading really is hard for you.

    We were discussing death by starvation (i.e., deadly famine) and now you want to talk about non-deadly famine. Stop moving the goalposts.

    No. You said “Famine”. You added the word “deadly” to “famine” only afterwards when you realized that your narrative fell apart.

    As I already explained, USSR was spending the capital of high birth rates inherited from the tsars so its demographics were less dire. But decline they did, at a rate higher than that of industrializing Germany decades earlier.

    LOL. Are you sure about that? Because the demographics of the USSR were fairly horizontal and barely changed (except for a few periods)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

    Good that you admit that the Communist system was as bad and ridiculous as Yanukovich’s system. It was even worse but at least you are starting to learn.

    LOL. You clearly intentionally misunderstood my point. If the communists were so “incompetent” as to allow themselves to be infiltrated by the CIA, logically that assumes that this would never happen in capitalist countries. And yet, capitalist Ukraine got infiltrated by the CIA that instituted maidan and holds it as its puppet.

    I

    I know that sharing an apartment with three generations, not owning a car (or having to wait 7 years to get one), waiting in line for food and other necessities, etc. is how poor people live.

    Most of the world did not have cars (that was purely a north american thing for a long time). Sharing an apartment with families was also a common occurrence in Europe, Isreal and in many other parts of the world. Waiting in line for food? Most people in capitalist countries (outside america) can’t even afford food. At least the Soviets could get it (and ate better than the Americans in terms of protein according to the CIA factbook).

    Not at all. I’m telling you that you don’t know how to reason at an even basic level, as demonstrated by your complete failure to understand what I wrote – which is clear by your response. Try again. Have your mommy explain it to you, if necessary.

    I understand highly technical stuff by virtue of my profession. Yet I failed to understand what you wrote. So clearly its not an issue on my end, its an issue of you not making sense.

    “Russians don’t know what’s going on in their own country” AP clearly knows better that Russians are better off now than in Soviet times. What a surprise it must be for Russians to find that out.

    Now, I was there for 2 weeks and visited Kiev, Lviv, two oblast capitals, and some villages. I stayed at Intourist hotels in Kiev in Lviv – fancy by Soviet standards, poor by Western standards – and in family apartments elsewhere. But it doesn’t take long to see how squalid the USSR was and how poorly the educated people lived in that dump.

    Oh wow you stayed in the post-Soviet Ukraine for TWO WHOLE WEEKS. Wow, you must be an effort. That’s like me saying because I went to two state capitals (Hartford Connecticut, and Kansas City) and a few small cities (in a country that just went through economic collapse) for TWO WHOLE WEEKS and found them lacking compared to the standards I’m used to – the entire country is lacking.

    You make no sense. Which is why you are an embarassment.

    I visited in 1990. USSR collapsed a year later in 1991. 1990 comes before 1991.

    Makes no difference. The collapse was already underway.

    Point is you are an embarrassment and should not be here trying to hold discussions with the big boys.

  153. @AltanBakshi

    The fall of the USSR was not an inevitability. It had its issues – sure. Just like any other place. However, it was a fairly stable system and it worked. Evidence of this is that countries based on its system like Cuba and North Korea and Communist Vietnam persist. These are much much smaller countries, with fewer people. resources, military might and scientific knowhow than the USSR.

    The newest five year plans that were drafted for the period between 1990-1995 would have seen gradual a replacement of the GOSPLAN with a computerised system (which FYI was planned back in the 1950’s with a network of about 20, 000 terminals throughout the country operating via phone lines) that would have allowed much easier decision making for consumer goods. Also keep in mind that the Soviets had built their own fabs for semiconductor and had their own cybernetics industry. This would have meant that with time (by now if the USSR was still around) it would have been a semiconductor giant almost on par with the US and its Central Planning done by computers almost exclusively.

    It’s collapse was most likely intentional by Gorbachev (i’ve read that Gorbachev changed significantly after having a week long closed door meeting with the Soviet consul in Ottawa – who had very anti-Soviet views and was later thought to be a CIA asset). Gorbachev’s wife is also suspected of having CIA ties – so its possible that the fall of the USSR was one of the first and most successful regieme change ops done by the CIA.

  154. @EldnahYm

    Lol. Countries don’t need to re-invent the wheel to develop.

    That’s a contradiction of your previous statement – you said that the fact that North Korea cannot trade with anyone and is thus poor is an indictment of Communism.

    Glad you agree with me that countries don’t need to re-invent the wheel to develop, and that trade with other nations is important for a countries development.

    China being North Korea’s dominant trade partner is inevitable. If North Korea’s exports to China were say 80% instead of 90%, and it had more imports from other non-hostile Asian countries, would the country be significantly more developed? I doubt it. I’m essentially describing countries like Mongolia or Myanmar, which aren’t particularly rich. The very existence of South Korea means North Korea is always at a disadvantage except for raw materials.

    China (just like the most of the Asian countries) are wary of trading with North Korea due to fear of US sanctions. Same as they wont trade with Huawei, because the US told them not to.

    North Korea was ahead of South Korea economically (despite the South having a larger population) for a long while (in the 60’s and 70’s) and it didn’t fall too far behind until relatively recently. The loss of the Communist block and Soviet support hurt them hard. A North Korea trading as extensively as South Korea without restrictions would soon reach the same economic level as the South – the people are not greatly different in terms of intelligence or ability. The North has developed some remarkable tech just on their own with limited access to outside knowledge.

    Recently the North has built a world class spa/resort because they wanted to develop their tourism – the US banned investments in that resort and made it hard to travel there. The same fate has met many North Korean projects. Imagine the US banning Samsung from trading with anyone, lets see how far it gets, even with the best intentions of the government.

    Widespread sanctions against North Korea have not even been applied for the majority of the country’s existence. You’re also ignoring the fact that isolation from much of the outside world has often been a policy of the North Korean government, economic self-sufficiency was a Juche principle. You also want to ignore the fact that some of those sanctions were responses to North Korean bombings and sinking of ships in South Korea. Sanctions also don’t explain many of the crazier policies of Kim Jong-Il and the people around him. Your starting point is the fact that sanctions against North Korea have occurred, and with that starting point are trying to explain away all of North Korea’s problems.

    Many of these ‘crazy’ policies are due to the North feeling threatened by the Americans on its border. All of its seemingly ‘crazy’ actions can be explained by this.

    My starting point is that the US is a threat to North Korea and North Korea is rightfully wary of it and basis all of its policies (including Juche) on this. Remove the US from the South and the North will seem less “crazy”.

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