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Belarus Sitrep 5: BNR Reloaded?
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So in the past few hours Luka has basically leveled up from Virgin sovok collective farm manager to Chad people’s republic warlord.

Sure, it’s a larp, but it’s still cooler than how Yanukovych just… ran away. Or how the USSR croaked, for that matter. Those “hardliners” behind the August coup gave up after just three deaths, the losers.

The EU has taken the decision not to recognize him as President, crystallizing the Luka-Maduro and Tikhanovskaya-Guaido comparisons. Though they will continue to do business with the country and targets will be narrowly targeted against the Belarusian security elites. They obviously still hope to avoid a full merger between Russia and Belarus.

Multiple reports of Belorussian state media now referring to itself by the traditional Russian term Belorussia, as opposed to the sovok-zmagarist Belarus. This is making the limitrophes very unhappy.

As Lukashenko has adopted a more explicitly Russia-adjacent line in rhetoric, so the opposition continues to – unsurprisingly, and understandably – distance from Russia in practice, even as they try to assuage otherwise.

The good news is that this increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support, in a shift from the ambiguities there were just a couple of weeks ago.

And for its part, the pro-Putin part of the Russian MSM has largely abandoned its initial neutrality and now emphasizes the “color revolution from abroad” aspect.

The bad news is that if the opposition does somehow win, then the prospects for a pro-Russian Belarus keep deteriorating, even if the street opposition at large still cannot be described as anti-Russian as a whole. (Though, given what was in the “secret” part of the opposition platform, perhaps that was always a forlorn hope).

But the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating by the day, the “tinpot dictator” optics of Lukashenko strutting about with his gun aside. Though today’s demonstration was the largest yet, at night time… they just went home. Monday is a work day, after all. There is no “hardcore” of deadset zmagarists ready to rush the barricades, as there were on the Maidan. No army units defecting and turning over weapons arsenals to them. The siloviks remain consolidated.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Belarus 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support… the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating

    Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    • Agree: Maïkl Makfaïl
    • Troll: Gorgeous George
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Concerned citizen

    While I realize you're some liberast moron, if you have been reading me you'd know that I don't actually like Luka (his capacity to entertain aside).

    You people have been "coping" with Crimea for six years, I'll be sure to ask you for some advice should that become necessary.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    , @AnonFromTN
    @Concerned citizen


    As for Luka, he is finished.
     
    Luka is finished, but not the way you think. The Empire and its vassals (especially the lowliest of vassals, Poland and Lithuania) tried to overthrow him using a small bunch of crazies, like in Kiev in 2014. It did not work: first, Luka is not as cowardly as Yanuk; second, even someone as dumb as Luka learned from Ukrainian coup. The result they’ve got is the opposite of what they hoped for: pro-EU “vector” is dead. Female Guaido Tikhanovskaya compromised herself and her gang by running away to Lithuania and then publishing something close to real program of imperial puppets.

    But Luka is finished in a sense that when things quiet down, Putin will replace him with something more sensible and reliable. If he relinquishes power to whoever Putin chooses “voluntarily”, he gets a quiet retirement in Russia. Otherwise he’d have to try his luck with sultan or some other small fry with big ego.
    , @Hartnell
    @Concerned citizen

    Personally I don't think Russia will go fully down the Western road compared to countries such as Belarus and Ukraine. The reason for this is where as Belarus and Ukraine could comfortably fit into Europe, Russia cannot as it is simply too big.

    It has more responsibilities to have to consider, such as supporting Siberia. Then there is the whole issue with the Caucasus. It's simply too diverse and big as a country to join with Europe.

    Plus we have to remember that none of these areas actually want to leave Russia. The big breakup happened in 1991. That is not on the cards.

    I think there will be changes in Russia after Putin. Mainly of an economical nature. Maybe some liberalisation in some areas. But afterwards, Russia is going to find herself having to find her own place in the world between the West and China.

    Who knows? Considering Europe is bracing for more refugees in the near future, debt ridden economics and growing nationalism within the EU, Russia could very well find herself having to take up some mantle of leadership in the future.

    But this will be decades down the line. For now, whilst the El Dorado of the West still shines, it's all going to be about the West.

    , @Derer
    @Concerned citizen

    An update for some people ignorance...Belorus people are actually Russians and many have desire to be part of Russia. More homogeneous than all present California inhabitants would lift American flag. Lukashenko's outlived his usefulness, being in power for too long is his problem especially for younger generation. There are, however equal demonstrations supporting Lukashenko which obviously dishonest and "unbiased" Western media would not show. What will happen in Belarus will decide Kremlin and not Washington.

  3. @Concerned citizen

    increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support... the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating
     
    Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN, @Hartnell, @Derer

    While I realize you’re some liberast moron, if you have been reading me you’d know that I don’t actually like Luka (his capacity to entertain aside).

    You people have been “coping” with Crimea for six years, I’ll be sure to ask you for some advice should that become necessary.

    • Agree: Exile
    • LOL: Gorgeous George
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Anatoly Karlin


    You people have been “coping” with Crimea for six years....
     
    No, they’ve been ICD-10 F24 over Crimea for the past 6 years.
  4. • Replies: @utu
    @utu

    Picts of Lukashenko+AK-47 and Salvador Allende+Ak-47 from his last stand vanished form my comment.

    Replies: @Voltarde

  5. Top video for 2020: Luka strutting with a machine gun next to some planes. It signals that shadow boxing might be over and the real fight begins. Good, the endless pretence has become tiresome, time for men to be men.

    Luka might lose, and Belarus could start splitting regionally into opposing fiefdoms. Or Luka will bulldoze them and become a complete persona non grata in the West – and that would put a damper on attempts to co-opt him. Messy.

    Nobody needs or wants this fight right now, so it will probably happen. Luka’s militiamen will drive tractors over the hills to Lithuania and burn rainbow flags. Poles will saddle up and start their long-promised civilizational mission toward the east. At that point somebody will nuke somebody and we will have a nice cherry on the 2020 apocalypse cake.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Beckow


    somebody will nuke somebody
     
    You grossly overestimate the perceived importance of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. Even put together they won’t appear like a sufficient reason to use nukes, neither to Russia, nor to the Empire. Neither side has any illusions who is who. Bantustans come and go, inconsequential and disposable in the big game.

    Replies: @Beckow, @GazaPlanet

  6. “Though today’s demonstration was the largest yet, at night time… they just went home. Monday is a work day, after all. There is no “hardcore” of deadset zmagarists ready to rush the barricades, as there were on the Maidan. “

    The going home was a right thing to do for Belarus. Maidan is not what grassroots movement do. Maidan is astroturfed with hired kamikazes and provocateurs followed with mysterious snipers shooting both sides.

    Belarusian protests are spontaneous and natural. This is their strength and weakness. Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership. What they need to do is to begin a national strike that could be started with public transportation workers that would be followed with strikes in large factories. If there are any NGO operators there of which Lukashenko speaks they should concentrate on transportation workers. The strikes should be left to men. Keep men inside locked down factories under the occupational strike while street protests and manifestations should continue and be dominated by young people and women. The latter would moderate the behavior of young men easily provoked by infiltrators. Women in white with red flowers can bring down Lukashenko.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @DreadIlk
    @utu

    They been trying to do this for the last two weeks and failed horribly. No money from outside (100k per factory) and no support inside. People showing up and working. They had limited success while the government was in shock from first wave of protests. But now government is reacting and their efforts are getting countered hard.

    There are investigations into strike leaders and coordination council for the protests. Government is getting it's own supporters out. Government is starting to demonize the protesters. It's going to become very hard to be anti Luka soon. Generals and Luka starting to openly state the opposition flags are nazi flags. He already promised to fire anyone who is striking. Considering he owns all the means of production you either starve or stfu.

    , @Beckow
    @utu

    The problem with your advice is that the transport is running, most men don't want to strike, and Belorussian women look fat in white. So this is not going to work, no matter how much 'spontaneity' you project into it.


    ...Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership.
     
    Actually, that's all they have: plans, advisors, pamphlets, Powerpoint slides and slogans. What they need are some street fighters.

    Regarding your Allende analogy: what are the odds that the Belorussian army would stage a pro-Western liberal coup? What do you think, 1 in 10? or maybe 1 in 100?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @216

  7. @utu
    https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1297669739624509442

    Replies: @utu

    Picts of Lukashenko+AK-47 and Salvador Allende+Ak-47 from his last stand vanished form my comment.

    • Replies: @Voltarde
    @utu

    The picture of Lukashenko holding an AK-47 brings to mind Comment #5 from Simon Tugmutton on one of iSteve's recent threads:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/r-nought-for-funerals-for-blacks-shot-by-blacks-is-approaching-1-0/

    https://youtu.be/GhxqIITtTtU

  8. I am having a blast reading all the faggots for the last week. Luka is also endless entertainment value. But there is a method to his madness. You can’t argue with the results, even thought I bet 50% at minimum is help from Russian specialists.

  9. @utu
    "Though today’s demonstration was the largest yet, at night time… they just went home. Monday is a work day, after all. There is no “hardcore” of deadset zmagarists ready to rush the barricades, as there were on the Maidan. "

    The going home was a right thing to do for Belarus. Maidan is not what grassroots movement do. Maidan is astroturfed with hired kamikazes and provocateurs followed with mysterious snipers shooting both sides.

    Belarusian protests are spontaneous and natural. This is their strength and weakness. Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership. What they need to do is to begin a national strike that could be started with public transportation workers that would be followed with strikes in large factories. If there are any NGO operators there of which Lukashenko speaks they should concentrate on transportation workers. The strikes should be left to men. Keep men inside locked down factories under the occupational strike while street protests and manifestations should continue and be dominated by young people and women. The latter would moderate the behavior of young men easily provoked by infiltrators. Women in white with red flowers can bring down Lukashenko.

    Replies: @DreadIlk, @Beckow

    They been trying to do this for the last two weeks and failed horribly. No money from outside (100k per factory) and no support inside. People showing up and working. They had limited success while the government was in shock from first wave of protests. But now government is reacting and their efforts are getting countered hard.

    There are investigations into strike leaders and coordination council for the protests. Government is getting it’s own supporters out. Government is starting to demonize the protesters. It’s going to become very hard to be anti Luka soon. Generals and Luka starting to openly state the opposition flags are nazi flags. He already promised to fire anyone who is striking. Considering he owns all the means of production you either starve or stfu.

  10. Putin should have married his daughters to Luka’s sons.

    • LOL: Yevardian
  11. The EU has taken the decision not to recognize him as President, crystallizing the Luka-Maduro and Tikhanovskaya-Guaido comparisons.

    Egypt would be a better analogy than Venezuela:

    — Tikhanovskaya/Morsi — Guaranteed failure and likely to start a civil war.
    — Luka/el-Sisi — Luka could work as Champion of the People. He is certainly generating the same sort of imagery & persona that el-Sisi had as a popular General.

    PEACE 😇

  12. Yeah im watching Soliviov’s shows and they clearly are supporting Lukachenko now. Only Jirik was against Lukachenko and supported reunification . The edinoros on the show was even saying that ” Russia now is the only protector of Belarus’s sovereignty”. Bad , stupid move that will cut us from Belarus’s society all for nothing except preserving a fragile status quo. MID’s sovok bureaucrats are apparently too scared to go out of their area of comfort and stop relying on the loyalty of dictators and Russian politicians have rediscovered their obsessive fear of any popular expression . Russian oligarchs will not be sanctioned more by the West than they are now and will be able to spend their holidays in Courchevel as planed. All is well in the best of all worlds for our national elite, which has once again proved itself impotent, corrupt , inconsequential and gullible . As Kissinger said , good tacticians , poor strategists.

    I hope that at least Lukachenko made some serious concessions to Putin for this light form of prostitution.

  13. @utu
    "Though today’s demonstration was the largest yet, at night time… they just went home. Monday is a work day, after all. There is no “hardcore” of deadset zmagarists ready to rush the barricades, as there were on the Maidan. "

    The going home was a right thing to do for Belarus. Maidan is not what grassroots movement do. Maidan is astroturfed with hired kamikazes and provocateurs followed with mysterious snipers shooting both sides.

    Belarusian protests are spontaneous and natural. This is their strength and weakness. Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership. What they need to do is to begin a national strike that could be started with public transportation workers that would be followed with strikes in large factories. If there are any NGO operators there of which Lukashenko speaks they should concentrate on transportation workers. The strikes should be left to men. Keep men inside locked down factories under the occupational strike while street protests and manifestations should continue and be dominated by young people and women. The latter would moderate the behavior of young men easily provoked by infiltrators. Women in white with red flowers can bring down Lukashenko.

    Replies: @DreadIlk, @Beckow

    The problem with your advice is that the transport is running, most men don’t want to strike, and Belorussian women look fat in white. So this is not going to work, no matter how much ‘spontaneity‘ you project into it.

    …Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership.

    Actually, that’s all they have: plans, advisors, pamphlets, Powerpoint slides and slogans. What they need are some street fighters.

    Regarding your Allende analogy: what are the odds that the Belorussian army would stage a pro-Western liberal coup? What do you think, 1 in 10? or maybe 1 in 100?

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Beckow

    They had fighters. Like 6k of them. That's what the first three days was about.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @216
    @Beckow

    Considering that the US military has made repeated coup threats against Trump, and was apparently stopped only by federal prison guards, I'd say rather high.

  14. @Beckow
    @utu

    The problem with your advice is that the transport is running, most men don't want to strike, and Belorussian women look fat in white. So this is not going to work, no matter how much 'spontaneity' you project into it.


    ...Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership.
     
    Actually, that's all they have: plans, advisors, pamphlets, Powerpoint slides and slogans. What they need are some street fighters.

    Regarding your Allende analogy: what are the odds that the Belorussian army would stage a pro-Western liberal coup? What do you think, 1 in 10? or maybe 1 in 100?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @216

    They had fighters. Like 6k of them. That’s what the first three days was about.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Dreadilk

    What happened to them? Did Luka shoot them? (he has that barely-out-of-cannibalism look, so it wouldn't surprise me.)

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @reiner Tor

  15. @Dreadilk
    @Beckow

    They had fighters. Like 6k of them. That's what the first three days was about.

    Replies: @Beckow

    What happened to them? Did Luka shoot them? (he has that barely-out-of-cannibalism look, so it wouldn’t surprise me.)

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Beckow

    They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info. If I had to guess they are all still locked up. After the first three days the opposition lost all nerve. That was the first day of ladies in white.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @reiner Tor
    @Beckow


    barely-out-of-cannibalism look
     
    Noice.
  16. Luka has basically leveled up from Virgin sovok collective farm manager to Chad

    Part of Lukashenko’s problem is that he is too much of a “Chad” leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. “Alpha male”/chad/charismatic/clown type of leader (which have some more direct connection to their ID, in a Freudian sense) – Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Lukashenko, Erdogan, etc.

    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats – Putin, Merkel, Theresa May, Obama, etc. (These politicians which try to impersonate our “superego” – apologies for Freudianism, but I don’t know how else to describe their “responsible, impersonal” presentation).

    Boring bureaucrat kind of leaders have a benefit that they are easier to defend in public, as they at least give an appearance of careful objectivity in their decisions, and seem to have the authority of society – they present themselves in such an impersonal and uncharismatic way.

    On the other hand, the alpha male, clown leaders like Trump and Bolsonaro can “overperform” their polls often, as people were too embarrassed to admit they support them in public. Admitting you support them in public, can feel admitting that you read pulp fiction books, telenovelas, or superhero films, .

    Russia should support, in a shift from the ambiguities there were just a couple of weeks ago.

    I’m not sure how there were ambiguities couple weeks ago?

    Sure, that Lukashenko is a rusophobe on a personal level, and tries to diversify away from Russia. But the opposition politics in Belarus, was for years, based from Poland and Czech Republic, and the main attraction is to improve relations with the EU, which is not to mention the nationalism.

    e prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating by the day, the “tinpot dictator” optics of Lukashenko strutting about with his gun aside.

    A trend I think I noticed in the last week, is that there seemed like there are significantly more old people recently visible in videos the protests (although they are still a minority).

    Belarus is a very aging population, so the original protests of young people have inbuilt demographic limitation.

    Only 11% of the population of Belarus are in their 20s – so if just you see young people demonstrate, this could still be result of idiosyncrasies of this youth minority “focus group” of the society.

    On the other hand, it is if we saw many old people are demonstrating, then there could be indication he is losing support with more important/numerically larger types of demographic in the society.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Dmitry


    Part of Lukashenko’s problem is that he is too much of a “Chad” leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. “Alpha male”/chad/charismatic/clown
    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats
     

    Actually, this cuts in Luka's favour.

    Have you ever heard of a Type 2 boring revolutionary leader? As long as the SJW effort is lead by Type 2 Tikhanovskaya, it is not going anywhere.

    The only thing that could threaten Luka is a Type 1 inspirational figure. Luka's willingness to show up with an assault rifle makes it hard for potential rivals to obtain traction. Try to visualize, without laughing, Obama with an AK-74.

    Luka does not have to be best Type 1 on the planet. He only needs to be the best Type 1, in Belarus, for this election cycle. Can anyone name a pro-Russia, Type 1, Belarus nationalist who will go toe-to-toe with Luka?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/08/23/23/32293252-8655857-image-a-19_1598220488221.jpg

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Supply and Demand

    , @Fluesterwitz
    @Dmitry

    If you add tradition as source of authority, you have resurrected Max Weber's model of authority.

    Tradition: Empiricism
    Charisma: WILLPOWER
    Bureaucracy: Rationalism

    Older people often lean toward solutions that worked before; is there somebody who could credibly fill the role of traditional authority in Belarus?

  17. Right now on /r/worldnews there are 7 threads on the front page about Belarus. Four of them has fewer than 10 comments which looks quite suspicious I have to say. Then there’s 3 threads about Navalny as well.

  18. Lavrov has come down strongly on backing Lukashenko whatever the election result. Lukashenko stays by selling out to Russia. This will be another short term tactical gain like Novorossiya and Crimea and a major strategic loss as another wave of sanctions hit and the Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.

    • Troll: GazaPlanet
    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    Where do you come up with this shit? In what world have you ever seen a government under attack folding or losing support of the masses? Iran and NK are significantly smaller countries and they survived attacks.

    Poll numbers always go up when there is conflict because people rally around their leaders.

    Color revolutions are a special breed that has nothing to do with sanctions. Color revolutions is usually intra elite split/betrayal. The chance of them working after sanctions goes down not up.

    Edit: while I would have hopped Russia take over all of Ukraine they played their hand well from a strategic point of view. I think I can write your opinion off from now on.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Yevardian
    @Philip Owen

    I always had the impression Lavrov never voices his personal opinions, even since his semi-retirement, so his statements probably represent the attitude of the Kremlin as whole.

    , @Russian Unionist
    @Philip Owen

    "Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies."

    Actually Putin's approval rating shot to all-time high after the Crimea affair and probably salvaged him from falling from grace with his people at some point in 2010s. The feelings of distaste you're describing are not shared by most Russians.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  19. @Beckow
    @Dreadilk

    What happened to them? Did Luka shoot them? (he has that barely-out-of-cannibalism look, so it wouldn't surprise me.)

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @reiner Tor

    They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info. If I had to guess they are all still locked up. After the first three days the opposition lost all nerve. That was the first day of ladies in white.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Dreadilk


    ...They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info.
     
    In that order? 6k is also quite a crowd, what was it like, 5 on 1? Women in white are creepy, few can pull it off, most just look chunky and sad. They need a new icon, how about Belorussian mamas with baseball bats in rubber boots? I might fly to Minsk to see that.

    Replies: @Sher Singh

  20. @Beckow
    @utu

    The problem with your advice is that the transport is running, most men don't want to strike, and Belorussian women look fat in white. So this is not going to work, no matter how much 'spontaneity' you project into it.


    ...Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership.
     
    Actually, that's all they have: plans, advisors, pamphlets, Powerpoint slides and slogans. What they need are some street fighters.

    Regarding your Allende analogy: what are the odds that the Belorussian army would stage a pro-Western liberal coup? What do you think, 1 in 10? or maybe 1 in 100?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @216

    Considering that the US military has made repeated coup threats against Trump, and was apparently stopped only by federal prison guards, I’d say rather high.

  21. @Philip Owen
    Lavrov has come down strongly on backing Lukashenko whatever the election result. Lukashenko stays by selling out to Russia. This will be another short term tactical gain like Novorossiya and Crimea and a major strategic loss as another wave of sanctions hit and the Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Yevardian, @Russian Unionist

    Where do you come up with this shit? In what world have you ever seen a government under attack folding or losing support of the masses? Iran and NK are significantly smaller countries and they survived attacks.

    Poll numbers always go up when there is conflict because people rally around their leaders.

    Color revolutions are a special breed that has nothing to do with sanctions. Color revolutions is usually intra elite split/betrayal. The chance of them working after sanctions goes down not up.

    Edit: while I would have hopped Russia take over all of Ukraine they played their hand well from a strategic point of view. I think I can write your opinion off from now on.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Dreadilk

    Colour revolutions exist in the paranoid fantasies of fascists.

  22. BTW, Ukrop coronavirus…out of control.

  23. @Dreadilk
    @Beckow

    They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info. If I had to guess they are all still locked up. After the first three days the opposition lost all nerve. That was the first day of ladies in white.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info.

    In that order? 6k is also quite a crowd, what was it like, 5 on 1? Women in white are creepy, few can pull it off, most just look chunky and sad. They need a new icon, how about Belorussian mamas with baseball bats in rubber boots? I might fly to Minsk to see that.

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    @Beckow

    white is color of death

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

  24. @Concerned citizen

    increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support... the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating
     
    Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN, @Hartnell, @Derer

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    Luka is finished, but not the way you think. The Empire and its vassals (especially the lowliest of vassals, Poland and Lithuania) tried to overthrow him using a small bunch of crazies, like in Kiev in 2014. It did not work: first, Luka is not as cowardly as Yanuk; second, even someone as dumb as Luka learned from Ukrainian coup. The result they’ve got is the opposite of what they hoped for: pro-EU “vector” is dead. Female Guaido Tikhanovskaya compromised herself and her gang by running away to Lithuania and then publishing something close to real program of imperial puppets.

    But Luka is finished in a sense that when things quiet down, Putin will replace him with something more sensible and reliable. If he relinquishes power to whoever Putin chooses “voluntarily”, he gets a quiet retirement in Russia. Otherwise he’d have to try his luck with sultan or some other small fry with big ego.

    • Agree: Aedib
  25. His 15-year old son is getting in on the theatrics as well.

  26. @Beckow
    Top video for 2020: Luka strutting with a machine gun next to some planes. It signals that shadow boxing might be over and the real fight begins. Good, the endless pretence has become tiresome, time for men to be men.

    Luka might lose, and Belarus could start splitting regionally into opposing fiefdoms. Or Luka will bulldoze them and become a complete persona non grata in the West - and that would put a damper on attempts to co-opt him. Messy.

    Nobody needs or wants this fight right now, so it will probably happen. Luka's militiamen will drive tractors over the hills to Lithuania and burn rainbow flags. Poles will saddle up and start their long-promised civilizational mission toward the east. At that point somebody will nuke somebody and we will have a nice cherry on the 2020 apocalypse cake.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    somebody will nuke somebody

    You grossly overestimate the perceived importance of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. Even put together they won’t appear like a sufficient reason to use nukes, neither to Russia, nor to the Empire. Neither side has any illusions who is who. Bantustans come and go, inconsequential and disposable in the big game.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AnonFromTN

    Big things can come from small places...and you have to admit that some fireworks would go well with 2020. But you are probably right, not much will happen and Luka will make more boring speeches and then appoint his son as a successor. I am starting to suspect that a lot of these people are not well-bred. It shows.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    , @GazaPlanet
    @AnonFromTN

    That's what Ribbentrop thought about Poland. That's the mistake you make when you do not view things objectively, i.e., when you ignore the preeminent role of the Jews.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @A123

  27. @Dmitry

    Luka has basically leveled up from Virgin sovok collective farm manager to Chad

     

    Part of Lukashenko's problem is that he is too much of a "Chad" leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. "Alpha male"/chad/charismatic/clown type of leader (which have some more direct connection to their ID, in a Freudian sense) - Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Lukashenko, Erdogan, etc.

    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats - Putin, Merkel, Theresa May, Obama, etc. (These politicians which try to impersonate our "superego" - apologies for Freudianism, but I don't know how else to describe their "responsible, impersonal" presentation).

    Boring bureaucrat kind of leaders have a benefit that they are easier to defend in public, as they at least give an appearance of careful objectivity in their decisions, and seem to have the authority of society - they present themselves in such an impersonal and uncharismatic way.

    On the other hand, the alpha male, clown leaders like Trump and Bolsonaro can "overperform" their polls often, as people were too embarrassed to admit they support them in public. Admitting you support them in public, can feel admitting that you read pulp fiction books, telenovelas, or superhero films, .


    Russia should support, in a shift from the ambiguities there were just a couple of weeks ago.

     

    I'm not sure how there were ambiguities couple weeks ago?

    Sure, that Lukashenko is a rusophobe on a personal level, and tries to diversify away from Russia. But the opposition politics in Belarus, was for years, based from Poland and Czech Republic, and the main attraction is to improve relations with the EU, which is not to mention the nationalism.


    e prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating by the day, the “tinpot dictator” optics of Lukashenko strutting about with his gun aside.

     

    A trend I think I noticed in the last week, is that there seemed like there are significantly more old people recently visible in videos the protests (although they are still a minority).

    Belarus is a very aging population, so the original protests of young people have inbuilt demographic limitation.

    Only 11% of the population of Belarus are in their 20s - so if just you see young people demonstrate, this could still be result of idiosyncrasies of this youth minority "focus group" of the society.

    On the other hand, it is if we saw many old people are demonstrating, then there could be indication he is losing support with more important/numerically larger types of demographic in the society.

    Replies: @A123, @Fluesterwitz

    Part of Lukashenko’s problem is that he is too much of a “Chad” leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. “Alpha male”/chad/charismatic/clown
    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats

    Actually, this cuts in Luka’s favour.

    Have you ever heard of a Type 2 boring revolutionary leader? As long as the SJW effort is lead by Type 2 Tikhanovskaya, it is not going anywhere.

    The only thing that could threaten Luka is a Type 1 inspirational figure. Luka’s willingness to show up with an assault rifle makes it hard for potential rivals to obtain traction. Try to visualize, without laughing, Obama with an AK-74.

    Luka does not have to be best Type 1 on the planet. He only needs to be the best Type 1, in Belarus, for this election cycle. Can anyone name a pro-Russia, Type 1, Belarus nationalist who will go toe-to-toe with Luka?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @A123


    Try to visualize, without laughing, Obama with an AK-74.
     
    Now, you made me laugh. BTW, you are right up to a point: a manly man (using Schwarzenegger’s term) impresses the sheeple more than hapless guaidos, male or female. Luka won this round. If Putin has brains, Luka won’t be playing in the next one.
    , @Supply and Demand
    @A123

    The CIA dismissed Fidel Castro an "uncharismatic professional-class dissident" before he started his boogaloo in Santa Clara. Chads are forged. Luka is just another dessicated boomer in America with an AR-15 at this point. Genuinely surprised his son isn't a transsexual too like most of the freedom lovers in America.

  28. The current developments are within the best possible outcomes for the West.

    Russia is now tied explictly to an unpopular regime. No more ambiguity. It also makes it harder – though not impossible – to ditch him in a palace coup later on. It simply raises the costs after publicly investing in him. That’s a plus. Putlet’s hand has been forced.

    Full integration is really the only option that is truly beneficial for Russia. It can still be done. Letting Russia subsidise and support an unpopular regime and a basket case economy is in the EU’s interest, which is why the EU extraordinary meeting ended with merely symbolic sanctions.

    So the yardstick remains that unless and until Russia achieves full integration, any other outcome de facto serves Western interests. We take its young people, Russia gets left holding the bag subsidising the aging sovoks left behind. Win-win 🙂

    • Agree: Ano4
    • Replies: @DreadIlk
    @Thulean Friend

    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it's muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.

    This would be infinitely easier to achieve on rebellious millennials of practically the same type of people as your self.

    You confuse easy of revolution in some POS country vs a major power's back yard. Ukraine is a special case, it was Russia not wanting to go into open confrontation with the west on the west's terms. They will be coming back for Ukraine. Look up history of Ukraine it was fought over by the Russians, Turks and Poles for hundreds of years.

    Replies: @216, @Seraphim

    , @Coconuts
    @Thulean Friend

    It seems likely that whatever the outcome a lot of young Belarusians will end up emigrating to the EU.

    Apparently Poland and Lithuania are already working on simplifying work permit regulations for Belarusians due to the crisis, so even if Lukashenko manages to stay in place or organise a managed transfer of power the emigration will likely happen and I imagine Poland and Lithuania will get to achieve some of their objectives.

    But, Belarusian oppositionists are claiming at the moment that they can be much closer to the EU and prevent this emigration (it's recognised what kind of implications it would have for the country) , whereas Lukashenko's actions will cause it... this looks to be wishful thinking or misleading.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    , @Mitleser
    @Thulean Friend

    Best possible outcome for the West would have been a smooth regime change accepted by the other sides.

    Burning bridges with the guy in-charge is not a good outcome for them in any way, that is why they try to limit that.

  29. Yes our friends traveled in this week and all got it. We think from the same party they attended. All mild form though. What’s scary is they had to get tested when traveling in but no one there tests because it is too expensive. Also I think one person can potentially fly back without being screened or reported but I need to clarify. I just heard that his dad will make him quarantine when he comes back.

    Otherwise I think Corona played it self out by now.

    edit: I some how broke the link. This was reply to Gerard.

  30. @A123
    @Dmitry


    Part of Lukashenko’s problem is that he is too much of a “Chad” leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. “Alpha male”/chad/charismatic/clown
    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats
     

    Actually, this cuts in Luka's favour.

    Have you ever heard of a Type 2 boring revolutionary leader? As long as the SJW effort is lead by Type 2 Tikhanovskaya, it is not going anywhere.

    The only thing that could threaten Luka is a Type 1 inspirational figure. Luka's willingness to show up with an assault rifle makes it hard for potential rivals to obtain traction. Try to visualize, without laughing, Obama with an AK-74.

    Luka does not have to be best Type 1 on the planet. He only needs to be the best Type 1, in Belarus, for this election cycle. Can anyone name a pro-Russia, Type 1, Belarus nationalist who will go toe-to-toe with Luka?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/08/23/23/32293252-8655857-image-a-19_1598220488221.jpg

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Supply and Demand

    Try to visualize, without laughing, Obama with an AK-74.

    Now, you made me laugh. BTW, you are right up to a point: a manly man (using Schwarzenegger’s term) impresses the sheeple more than hapless guaidos, male or female. Luka won this round. If Putin has brains, Luka won’t be playing in the next one.

  31. @Philip Owen
    Lavrov has come down strongly on backing Lukashenko whatever the election result. Lukashenko stays by selling out to Russia. This will be another short term tactical gain like Novorossiya and Crimea and a major strategic loss as another wave of sanctions hit and the Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Yevardian, @Russian Unionist

    I always had the impression Lavrov never voices his personal opinions, even since his semi-retirement, so his statements probably represent the attitude of the Kremlin as whole.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
  32. @Thulean Friend
    The current developments are within the best possible outcomes for the West.

    Russia is now tied explictly to an unpopular regime. No more ambiguity. It also makes it harder - though not impossible - to ditch him in a palace coup later on. It simply raises the costs after publicly investing in him. That's a plus. Putlet's hand has been forced.

    Full integration is really the only option that is truly beneficial for Russia. It can still be done. Letting Russia subsidise and support an unpopular regime and a basket case economy is in the EU's interest, which is why the EU extraordinary meeting ended with merely symbolic sanctions.

    So the yardstick remains that unless and until Russia achieves full integration, any other outcome de facto serves Western interests. We take its young people, Russia gets left holding the bag subsidising the aging sovoks left behind. Win-win :)

    Replies: @DreadIlk, @Coconuts, @Mitleser

    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it’s muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.

    This would be infinitely easier to achieve on rebellious millennials of practically the same type of people as your self.

    You confuse easy of revolution in some POS country vs a major power’s back yard. Ukraine is a special case, it was Russia not wanting to go into open confrontation with the west on the west’s terms. They will be coming back for Ukraine. Look up history of Ukraine it was fought over by the Russians, Turks and Poles for hundreds of years.

    • Replies: @216
    @DreadIlk


    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it’s muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.
     
    China puts severe limits on the foreign press in Xinjiang.

    They also have a compliant diaspora which doesn't call the Old Country, "racist"; and they have a growing number of far-left supporters in the West.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Seraphim
    @DreadIlk

    I am always pleased to remind Bismarck's warnings about Russia:

    “Do not expect that once taking advantage of Russia’s weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russians have always come for their money. And when they come – do not rely on an agreement signed by you, you are supposed to justify. They are not worth the paper it is written. Therefore, with the Russian is to play fair, or do not play”.
    Why? He explained:
    "Even the most favorable outcome of the war would never result in the disintegration of the main Russian power, which rests on the millions of actual Russians of Greek confession. These, even if separated by contracts, would always come together again just as quickly as the parts of a dissected mercury body".

  33. @AnonFromTN
    @Beckow


    somebody will nuke somebody
     
    You grossly overestimate the perceived importance of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. Even put together they won’t appear like a sufficient reason to use nukes, neither to Russia, nor to the Empire. Neither side has any illusions who is who. Bantustans come and go, inconsequential and disposable in the big game.

    Replies: @Beckow, @GazaPlanet

    Big things can come from small places…and you have to admit that some fireworks would go well with 2020. But you are probably right, not much will happen and Luka will make more boring speeches and then appoint his son as a successor. I am starting to suspect that a lot of these people are not well-bred. It shows.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Beckow

    Nobody can suspect Luka of good upbringing. He grew up fatherless in a village. His highest achievement in the USSR: director of state farm. I think even that was above his abilities.

    I don’t think he will be allowed to hand the power over to his son. His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.

    Replies: @Gerard-Mandela

  34. @DreadIlk
    @Thulean Friend

    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it's muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.

    This would be infinitely easier to achieve on rebellious millennials of practically the same type of people as your self.

    You confuse easy of revolution in some POS country vs a major power's back yard. Ukraine is a special case, it was Russia not wanting to go into open confrontation with the west on the west's terms. They will be coming back for Ukraine. Look up history of Ukraine it was fought over by the Russians, Turks and Poles for hundreds of years.

    Replies: @216, @Seraphim

    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it’s muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.

    China puts severe limits on the foreign press in Xinjiang.

    They also have a compliant diaspora which doesn’t call the Old Country, “racist”; and they have a growing number of far-left supporters in the West.

    • Replies: @utu
    @216

    ...and they have Ron Unz.

  35. @216
    @DreadIlk


    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it’s muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.
     
    China puts severe limits on the foreign press in Xinjiang.

    They also have a compliant diaspora which doesn't call the Old Country, "racist"; and they have a growing number of far-left supporters in the West.

    Replies: @utu

    …and they have Ron Unz.

  36. @Beckow
    @AnonFromTN

    Big things can come from small places...and you have to admit that some fireworks would go well with 2020. But you are probably right, not much will happen and Luka will make more boring speeches and then appoint his son as a successor. I am starting to suspect that a lot of these people are not well-bred. It shows.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    Nobody can suspect Luka of good upbringing. He grew up fatherless in a village. His highest achievement in the USSR: director of state farm. I think even that was above his abilities.

    I don’t think he will be allowed to hand the power over to his son. His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.

    • Replies: @Gerard-Mandela
    @AnonFromTN


    His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.
     
    It's too dramatic for him to retire in Russia - I think he deserves to be acknowledged for the successes and stability during his rule without forgetting his faults and that he has been leader for too long.

    He's done a much better job at leading his country than Shevardnadze in gruzia, Gorbachev, those ridiculous failures like Kravchuk, Kuchma and Yushchenko...yet all of them were allowed to peacefully retire and even be seen as "statesmen" in their own state.

    He deserves the same and I think he will be appreciated for what he did get right by everybody and, if not too corrupt in wealth, will be allowed to live peacefully in retirement in Belarus

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  37. @Beckow
    @Dreadilk


    ...They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info.
     
    In that order? 6k is also quite a crowd, what was it like, 5 on 1? Women in white are creepy, few can pull it off, most just look chunky and sad. They need a new icon, how about Belorussian mamas with baseball bats in rubber boots? I might fly to Minsk to see that.

    Replies: @Sher Singh

    white is color of death

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Sher Singh

    But its also the color of purity and peace, and the benevolent Goddess Saraswati is always clad in white.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

  38. @DreadIlk
    @Thulean Friend

    I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it's muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.

    This would be infinitely easier to achieve on rebellious millennials of practically the same type of people as your self.

    You confuse easy of revolution in some POS country vs a major power's back yard. Ukraine is a special case, it was Russia not wanting to go into open confrontation with the west on the west's terms. They will be coming back for Ukraine. Look up history of Ukraine it was fought over by the Russians, Turks and Poles for hundreds of years.

    Replies: @216, @Seraphim

    I am always pleased to remind Bismarck’s warnings about Russia:

    “Do not expect that once taking advantage of Russia’s weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russians have always come for their money. And when they come – do not rely on an agreement signed by you, you are supposed to justify. They are not worth the paper it is written. Therefore, with the Russian is to play fair, or do not play”.
    Why? He explained:
    “Even the most favorable outcome of the war would never result in the disintegration of the main Russian power, which rests on the millions of actual Russians of Greek confession. These, even if separated by contracts, would always come together again just as quickly as the parts of a dissected mercury body”.

    • Agree: Dreadilk, reiner Tor
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
  39. @Philip Owen
    Lavrov has come down strongly on backing Lukashenko whatever the election result. Lukashenko stays by selling out to Russia. This will be another short term tactical gain like Novorossiya and Crimea and a major strategic loss as another wave of sanctions hit and the Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Yevardian, @Russian Unionist

    “Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.”

    Actually Putin’s approval rating shot to all-time high after the Crimea affair and probably salvaged him from falling from grace with his people at some point in 2010s. The feelings of distaste you’re describing are not shared by most Russians.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Russian Unionist

    That was Then. This is Now after the costs of such strutting have been revealed. Russia is no longer drunk on oil money. It has to rely more on its own work which is not so productive not such high quality.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @SveVid

  40. I say unification EOY

  41. @Sher Singh
    @Beckow

    white is color of death

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    But its also the color of purity and peace, and the benevolent Goddess Saraswati is always clad in white.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @AltanBakshi

    Which dumbass “god” is irrelevant to Belarussians/Russians and all of us.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

  42. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Concerned citizen

    While I realize you're some liberast moron, if you have been reading me you'd know that I don't actually like Luka (his capacity to entertain aside).

    You people have been "coping" with Crimea for six years, I'll be sure to ask you for some advice should that become necessary.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    You people have been “coping” with Crimea for six years….

    No, they’ve been ICD-10 F24 over Crimea for the past 6 years.

  43. Why does brandishing a gun make him “manly” and “Alpha”? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don’t suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes “full Maidan”, but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article14996881.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/0_Queen-Elizabeth-II.jpg

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123

    , @Dreadilk
    @Europe Europa

    It is because of replies like yours. Too many limp dicks clutch their pearls when anyone does anything bad ass. That is what separates you from him.

    It's like praising Jesus triggers Christian haters.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    TIL I learned only Americans are men.

    Btw the association with men and weapons goes into prehistory but you could just look up Greek gender symbols.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    , @EldnahYm
    @Europe Europa


    Any wimp can pose with a gun
     
    You would be surprised how many white liberals are genuinely terrified of guns. Or think them distasteful.
    , @Hyperborean
    @Europe Europa


    Why does brandishing a gun make him “manly” and “Alpha”? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don’t suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes “full Maidan”, but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

     

    It doesn't matter whether it is manly or not, tinpot dictator chic has its own aesthetic attraction.
    , @Philip Owen
    @Europe Europa

    Having a flak jacket and gun is either a total pose to suggest external enemies or a genuine concern that even his close protection team is about to turn on him.

    The Belarus people know how much they have been instructed to revolt by highly paid Western NGOs. They will rate the pose accordingly. I doubt it will help him.

    To be fair, this does not seem to be a protest that wishes a violent end on him. The Pretorian guard is more likely to tell him it is over rather than shoot him. It is even possible that he could have an honourable retirement in Belarus if he handles this gracefully. It is not yet to late to reject Russian OMON on the streets of Belarus. (or is it).

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Europe Europa


    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.
     
    Well, it's not like Luka has cardinal problems with Americans.

    https://www.spletnik.ru/img/__post/77/77fa8579cdc5d9a133be6bb57f2829c0_188.jpg

    In the "foreign backed color revolution" rhetoric a few days ago, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Holland, and Czechia were named as the instigators - pointedly, not the US.

    Probably Luka hopes to preserve at least the possibility of the US remaining a "vector" in a revamped "multivector" policy should he survive the current crisis in the long-term without becoming a complete Russian vassal.



    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1297461032370294786

    https://zavtra.ru/upl/20000/alarge/pic_1475693633e.jpg
  44. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    • LOL: Ano4
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Kent Nationalist

    In her younger days, as well as drive and mainain a heavy Bedford truck, in her case an ambulance but it was the military standard, she could shoot a competition pistol. Her daughter Anne has done as well.

    , @A123
    @Kent Nationalist

    He knows that you've been NAUGHTY
    .
    https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/reddwarf/images/1/18/Father-Xmas-Waxworld.jpg

  45. @Dmitry

    Luka has basically leveled up from Virgin sovok collective farm manager to Chad

     

    Part of Lukashenko's problem is that he is too much of a "Chad" leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. "Alpha male"/chad/charismatic/clown type of leader (which have some more direct connection to their ID, in a Freudian sense) - Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Lukashenko, Erdogan, etc.

    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats - Putin, Merkel, Theresa May, Obama, etc. (These politicians which try to impersonate our "superego" - apologies for Freudianism, but I don't know how else to describe their "responsible, impersonal" presentation).

    Boring bureaucrat kind of leaders have a benefit that they are easier to defend in public, as they at least give an appearance of careful objectivity in their decisions, and seem to have the authority of society - they present themselves in such an impersonal and uncharismatic way.

    On the other hand, the alpha male, clown leaders like Trump and Bolsonaro can "overperform" their polls often, as people were too embarrassed to admit they support them in public. Admitting you support them in public, can feel admitting that you read pulp fiction books, telenovelas, or superhero films, .


    Russia should support, in a shift from the ambiguities there were just a couple of weeks ago.

     

    I'm not sure how there were ambiguities couple weeks ago?

    Sure, that Lukashenko is a rusophobe on a personal level, and tries to diversify away from Russia. But the opposition politics in Belarus, was for years, based from Poland and Czech Republic, and the main attraction is to improve relations with the EU, which is not to mention the nationalism.


    e prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating by the day, the “tinpot dictator” optics of Lukashenko strutting about with his gun aside.

     

    A trend I think I noticed in the last week, is that there seemed like there are significantly more old people recently visible in videos the protests (although they are still a minority).

    Belarus is a very aging population, so the original protests of young people have inbuilt demographic limitation.

    Only 11% of the population of Belarus are in their 20s - so if just you see young people demonstrate, this could still be result of idiosyncrasies of this youth minority "focus group" of the society.

    On the other hand, it is if we saw many old people are demonstrating, then there could be indication he is losing support with more important/numerically larger types of demographic in the society.

    Replies: @A123, @Fluesterwitz

    If you add tradition as source of authority, you have resurrected Max Weber’s model of authority.

    Tradition: Empiricism
    Charisma: WILLPOWER
    Bureaucracy: Rationalism

    Older people often lean toward solutions that worked before; is there somebody who could credibly fill the role of traditional authority in Belarus?

  46. @AnonFromTN
    @Beckow

    Nobody can suspect Luka of good upbringing. He grew up fatherless in a village. His highest achievement in the USSR: director of state farm. I think even that was above his abilities.

    I don’t think he will be allowed to hand the power over to his son. His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.

    Replies: @Gerard-Mandela

    His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.

    It’s too dramatic for him to retire in Russia – I think he deserves to be acknowledged for the successes and stability during his rule without forgetting his faults and that he has been leader for too long.

    He’s done a much better job at leading his country than Shevardnadze in gruzia, Gorbachev, those ridiculous failures like Kravchuk, Kuchma and Yushchenko…yet all of them were allowed to peacefully retire and even be seen as “statesmen” in their own state.

    He deserves the same and I think he will be appreciated for what he did get right by everybody and, if not too corrupt in wealth, will be allowed to live peacefully in retirement in Belarus

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Gerard-Mandela


    He deserves the same and I think he will be appreciated for what he did get right by everybody and, if not too corrupt in wealth, will be allowed to live peacefully in retirement in Belarus
     
    Tell you what, it’s a very low bar to be better than Shevarnadze, Kravchuk, Kuchma, Yushchenko, or a succession of nonentities in the Baltic vaudeville states.

    Luka made life reasonably good for his populace on credit. Luka, as well as Ukrainian “leaders”, was milking Russia. Luka stands out because he shared the proceeds with his people, whereas Ukrainian thieves stole 100%.

    A person with dignity and love for his country would be ashamed of being honored by the current Ukie regime. However, the scum like Kravchuk, Kuchma, and Yushchenko do not deserve any better.
    Luka might deserve to retire in Belarus, but I am not sure the majority of Belarus population would agree.
  47. @Thulean Friend
    The current developments are within the best possible outcomes for the West.

    Russia is now tied explictly to an unpopular regime. No more ambiguity. It also makes it harder - though not impossible - to ditch him in a palace coup later on. It simply raises the costs after publicly investing in him. That's a plus. Putlet's hand has been forced.

    Full integration is really the only option that is truly beneficial for Russia. It can still be done. Letting Russia subsidise and support an unpopular regime and a basket case economy is in the EU's interest, which is why the EU extraordinary meeting ended with merely symbolic sanctions.

    So the yardstick remains that unless and until Russia achieves full integration, any other outcome de facto serves Western interests. We take its young people, Russia gets left holding the bag subsidising the aging sovoks left behind. Win-win :)

    Replies: @DreadIlk, @Coconuts, @Mitleser

    It seems likely that whatever the outcome a lot of young Belarusians will end up emigrating to the EU.

    Apparently Poland and Lithuania are already working on simplifying work permit regulations for Belarusians due to the crisis, so even if Lukashenko manages to stay in place or organise a managed transfer of power the emigration will likely happen and I imagine Poland and Lithuania will get to achieve some of their objectives.

    But, Belarusian oppositionists are claiming at the moment that they can be much closer to the EU and prevent this emigration (it’s recognised what kind of implications it would have for the country) , whereas Lukashenko’s actions will cause it… this looks to be wishful thinking or misleading.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Coconuts

    Poland is already full of Ukrainian migrant workers, so is minuscule Lithuania. Is there enough long term jobs for Belarussian immigrants? If there is then it could be a problem.

  48. @A123
    @Dmitry


    Part of Lukashenko’s problem is that he is too much of a “Chad” leader, which generally means being a clown.

    Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:

    1. “Alpha male”/chad/charismatic/clown
    2. Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats
     

    Actually, this cuts in Luka's favour.

    Have you ever heard of a Type 2 boring revolutionary leader? As long as the SJW effort is lead by Type 2 Tikhanovskaya, it is not going anywhere.

    The only thing that could threaten Luka is a Type 1 inspirational figure. Luka's willingness to show up with an assault rifle makes it hard for potential rivals to obtain traction. Try to visualize, without laughing, Obama with an AK-74.

    Luka does not have to be best Type 1 on the planet. He only needs to be the best Type 1, in Belarus, for this election cycle. Can anyone name a pro-Russia, Type 1, Belarus nationalist who will go toe-to-toe with Luka?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/08/23/23/32293252-8655857-image-a-19_1598220488221.jpg

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Supply and Demand

    The CIA dismissed Fidel Castro an “uncharismatic professional-class dissident” before he started his boogaloo in Santa Clara. Chads are forged. Luka is just another dessicated boomer in America with an AR-15 at this point. Genuinely surprised his son isn’t a transsexual too like most of the freedom lovers in America.

  49. @Coconuts
    @Thulean Friend

    It seems likely that whatever the outcome a lot of young Belarusians will end up emigrating to the EU.

    Apparently Poland and Lithuania are already working on simplifying work permit regulations for Belarusians due to the crisis, so even if Lukashenko manages to stay in place or organise a managed transfer of power the emigration will likely happen and I imagine Poland and Lithuania will get to achieve some of their objectives.

    But, Belarusian oppositionists are claiming at the moment that they can be much closer to the EU and prevent this emigration (it's recognised what kind of implications it would have for the country) , whereas Lukashenko's actions will cause it... this looks to be wishful thinking or misleading.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    Poland is already full of Ukrainian migrant workers, so is minuscule Lithuania. Is there enough long term jobs for Belarussian immigrants? If there is then it could be a problem.

  50. @utu
    @utu

    Picts of Lukashenko+AK-47 and Salvador Allende+Ak-47 from his last stand vanished form my comment.

    Replies: @Voltarde

    The picture of Lukashenko holding an AK-47 brings to mind Comment #5 from Simon Tugmutton on one of iSteve’s recent threads:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/r-nought-for-funerals-for-blacks-shot-by-blacks-is-approaching-1-0/

  51. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    It is because of replies like yours. Too many limp dicks clutch their pearls when anyone does anything bad ass. That is what separates you from him.

    It’s like praising Jesus triggers Christian haters.

  52. Yesterday’s BBC included segment on Belarus which featured a protestor named Roman Zacharia. Be interested to know his background. As spelled, Zacharia is (among other possibilities) a Sephardic surname.

  53. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    TIL I learned only Americans are men.

    Btw the association with men and weapons goes into prehistory but you could just look up Greek gender symbols.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @Daniel Chieh

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don't come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don't carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Dan Hayes, @Daniel Chieh, @RadicalCenter

  54. @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    Where do you come up with this shit? In what world have you ever seen a government under attack folding or losing support of the masses? Iran and NK are significantly smaller countries and they survived attacks.

    Poll numbers always go up when there is conflict because people rally around their leaders.

    Color revolutions are a special breed that has nothing to do with sanctions. Color revolutions is usually intra elite split/betrayal. The chance of them working after sanctions goes down not up.

    Edit: while I would have hopped Russia take over all of Ukraine they played their hand well from a strategic point of view. I think I can write your opinion off from now on.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Colour revolutions exist in the paranoid fantasies of fascists.

    • Disagree: Ano4
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
  55. @Russian Unionist
    @Philip Owen

    "Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies."

    Actually Putin's approval rating shot to all-time high after the Crimea affair and probably salvaged him from falling from grace with his people at some point in 2010s. The feelings of distaste you're describing are not shared by most Russians.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    That was Then. This is Now after the costs of such strutting have been revealed. Russia is no longer drunk on oil money. It has to rely more on its own work which is not so productive not such high quality.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    You are drinking your own coolaid. I remember hearing retards like you claiming Ukraine will take over the break away regions within a year and how Russia will fall apart from sanctions.

    Your side's track record of being wrong is unrivaled.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @SveVid
    @Philip Owen

    Actually Russia hasn't been in such a solid position in generations. You've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at them and they've just shrugged it off.

    The Eu on the other hand looks decisively half dead

    And I won't even bother describing the state that merry old England is in

  56. @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article14996881.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/0_Queen-Elizabeth-II.jpg

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123

    In her younger days, as well as drive and mainain a heavy Bedford truck, in her case an ambulance but it was the military standard, she could shoot a competition pistol. Her daughter Anne has done as well.

  57. @Beckow
    @Dreadilk

    What happened to them? Did Luka shoot them? (he has that barely-out-of-cannibalism look, so it wouldn't surprise me.)

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @reiner Tor

    barely-out-of-cannibalism look

    Noice.

  58. @Philip Owen
    @Russian Unionist

    That was Then. This is Now after the costs of such strutting have been revealed. Russia is no longer drunk on oil money. It has to rely more on its own work which is not so productive not such high quality.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @SveVid

    You are drinking your own coolaid. I remember hearing retards like you claiming Ukraine will take over the break away regions within a year and how Russia will fall apart from sanctions.

    Your side’s track record of being wrong is unrivaled.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Dreadilk

    I didn't. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Mikel

  59. @Gerard-Mandela
    @AnonFromTN


    His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.
     
    It's too dramatic for him to retire in Russia - I think he deserves to be acknowledged for the successes and stability during his rule without forgetting his faults and that he has been leader for too long.

    He's done a much better job at leading his country than Shevardnadze in gruzia, Gorbachev, those ridiculous failures like Kravchuk, Kuchma and Yushchenko...yet all of them were allowed to peacefully retire and even be seen as "statesmen" in their own state.

    He deserves the same and I think he will be appreciated for what he did get right by everybody and, if not too corrupt in wealth, will be allowed to live peacefully in retirement in Belarus

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    He deserves the same and I think he will be appreciated for what he did get right by everybody and, if not too corrupt in wealth, will be allowed to live peacefully in retirement in Belarus

    Tell you what, it’s a very low bar to be better than Shevarnadze, Kravchuk, Kuchma, Yushchenko, or a succession of nonentities in the Baltic vaudeville states.

    Luka made life reasonably good for his populace on credit. Luka, as well as Ukrainian “leaders”, was milking Russia. Luka stands out because he shared the proceeds with his people, whereas Ukrainian thieves stole 100%.

    A person with dignity and love for his country would be ashamed of being honored by the current Ukie regime. However, the scum like Kravchuk, Kuchma, and Yushchenko do not deserve any better.
    Luka might deserve to retire in Belarus, but I am not sure the majority of Belarus population would agree.

    • Agree: Ano4
  60. You know, I kind of sympathize more with Lukashenko now. If the EU, NATO, CIA and other acronyms hate him so much, perhaps he’s not so bad after all…

    Not that I care to much one way or another about that country… The only Belarussian I ever met married an Italian man and has been living in Italy for 20 years… She never once went back. If Belarus enters the EU, the country will likely empty out…

    What about this, another false flag? It’s always Germany and/or the UK vs. Russia. And many exiled “oligarchs” live in both countries.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53892900

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Dumbo

    When the Russian state looks for a straw man it picks the UK, not because of present capacity but its image amongst the Russian population.

  61. If anyone from RT is reading this, start preparing a thorough but elevated critique of the upcoming American elections. It’s not like there is a lack of material.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Pericles

    No, RT should cover the urgent issue of oppression directed at gamers, the most forgotten minority. Shilling for Russian studios optional but consistent with original mission statement.

    Replies: @Pericles

  62. @Pericles
    If anyone from RT is reading this, start preparing a thorough but elevated critique of the upcoming American elections. It's not like there is a lack of material.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    No, RT should cover the urgent issue of oppression directed at gamers, the most forgotten minority. Shilling for Russian studios optional but consistent with original mission statement.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Daniel Chieh

    Truly the nuclear option. Let's not be hasty now.

  63. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    Any wimp can pose with a gun

    You would be surprised how many white liberals are genuinely terrified of guns. Or think them distasteful.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  64. @Concerned citizen

    increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support... the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating
     
    Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN, @Hartnell, @Derer

    Personally I don’t think Russia will go fully down the Western road compared to countries such as Belarus and Ukraine. The reason for this is where as Belarus and Ukraine could comfortably fit into Europe, Russia cannot as it is simply too big.

    It has more responsibilities to have to consider, such as supporting Siberia. Then there is the whole issue with the Caucasus. It’s simply too diverse and big as a country to join with Europe.

    Plus we have to remember that none of these areas actually want to leave Russia. The big breakup happened in 1991. That is not on the cards.

    I think there will be changes in Russia after Putin. Mainly of an economical nature. Maybe some liberalisation in some areas. But afterwards, Russia is going to find herself having to find her own place in the world between the West and China.

    Who knows? Considering Europe is bracing for more refugees in the near future, debt ridden economics and growing nationalism within the EU, Russia could very well find herself having to take up some mantle of leadership in the future.

    But this will be decades down the line. For now, whilst the El Dorado of the West still shines, it’s all going to be about the West.

  65. @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    You are drinking your own coolaid. I remember hearing retards like you claiming Ukraine will take over the break away regions within a year and how Russia will fall apart from sanctions.

    Your side's track record of being wrong is unrivaled.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    I didn’t. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    Yeah yeah we all are Nostradamus now that it happened. I noticed you didn't say anything about Russia breaking under sanctions with your answer.

    Either way I don't give a shit to fact checks what you said years ago. My point stands people like you have made the statements I brought up and were completely repudiated.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    I didn’t. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.
     
    That's what I thought myself, especially considering that the new leaders in Kiev were pro-West and pro-democracy.

    I didn't expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West's support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.

    In fact, they recovered most of Donbas with plenty of disregard for civilian lives and were about to rout the rebels when the belated help from the Russians that Girkin had been publicly begging for finally materialized.

    BTW, where does the Ukrainian army shelter itself inside the recovered territory, only on open ground?

    Replies: @AP

  66. @Dumbo
    You know, I kind of sympathize more with Lukashenko now. If the EU, NATO, CIA and other acronyms hate him so much, perhaps he's not so bad after all...

    Not that I care to much one way or another about that country... The only Belarussian I ever met married an Italian man and has been living in Italy for 20 years... She never once went back. If Belarus enters the EU, the country will likely empty out...

    What about this, another false flag? It's always Germany and/or the UK vs. Russia. And many exiled "oligarchs" live in both countries.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53892900

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    When the Russian state looks for a straw man it picks the UK, not because of present capacity but its image amongst the Russian population.

  67. @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article14996881.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/0_Queen-Elizabeth-II.jpg

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123

    He knows that you’ve been NAUGHTY
    .

  68. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    Why does brandishing a gun make him “manly” and “Alpha”? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don’t suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes “full Maidan”, but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    It doesn’t matter whether it is manly or not, tinpot dictator chic has its own aesthetic attraction.

  69. @Philip Owen
    @Dreadilk

    I didn't. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Mikel

    Yeah yeah we all are Nostradamus now that it happened. I noticed you didn’t say anything about Russia breaking under sanctions with your answer.

    Either way I don’t give a shit to fact checks what you said years ago. My point stands people like you have made the statements I brought up and were completely repudiated.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Dreadilk

    Russia has already broken under sanctions. That's why the 2014 countersanctions were needed.

    Replies: @Korenchkin

  70. @Thulean Friend
    The current developments are within the best possible outcomes for the West.

    Russia is now tied explictly to an unpopular regime. No more ambiguity. It also makes it harder - though not impossible - to ditch him in a palace coup later on. It simply raises the costs after publicly investing in him. That's a plus. Putlet's hand has been forced.

    Full integration is really the only option that is truly beneficial for Russia. It can still be done. Letting Russia subsidise and support an unpopular regime and a basket case economy is in the EU's interest, which is why the EU extraordinary meeting ended with merely symbolic sanctions.

    So the yardstick remains that unless and until Russia achieves full integration, any other outcome de facto serves Western interests. We take its young people, Russia gets left holding the bag subsidising the aging sovoks left behind. Win-win :)

    Replies: @DreadIlk, @Coconuts, @Mitleser

    Best possible outcome for the West would have been a smooth regime change accepted by the other sides.

    Burning bridges with the guy in-charge is not a good outcome for them in any way, that is why they try to limit that.

  71. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    Having a flak jacket and gun is either a total pose to suggest external enemies or a genuine concern that even his close protection team is about to turn on him.

    The Belarus people know how much they have been instructed to revolt by highly paid Western NGOs. They will rate the pose accordingly. I doubt it will help him.

    To be fair, this does not seem to be a protest that wishes a violent end on him. The Pretorian guard is more likely to tell him it is over rather than shoot him. It is even possible that he could have an honourable retirement in Belarus if he handles this gracefully. It is not yet to late to reject Russian OMON on the streets of Belarus. (or is it).

  72. @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    Yeah yeah we all are Nostradamus now that it happened. I noticed you didn't say anything about Russia breaking under sanctions with your answer.

    Either way I don't give a shit to fact checks what you said years ago. My point stands people like you have made the statements I brought up and were completely repudiated.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Russia has already broken under sanctions. That’s why the 2014 countersanctions were needed.

    • Replies: @Korenchkin
    @Philip Owen

    You have some rather absurd beliefs regarding economics and international relations

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  73. @Concerned citizen

    increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support... the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating
     
    Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN, @Hartnell, @Derer

    An update for some people ignorance…Belorus people are actually Russians and many have desire to be part of Russia. More homogeneous than all present California inhabitants would lift American flag. Lukashenko’s outlived his usefulness, being in power for too long is his problem especially for younger generation. There are, however equal demonstrations supporting Lukashenko which obviously dishonest and “unbiased” Western media would not show. What will happen in Belarus will decide Kremlin and not Washington.

  74. @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    TIL I learned only Americans are men.

    Btw the association with men and weapons goes into prehistory but you could just look up Greek gender symbols.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don’t come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don’t carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    • Agree: Philip Owen, Yevardian
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Europe Europa

    Yes. Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.

    Replies: @A123, @RadicalCenter

    , @A123
    @Europe Europa

    I do not think you will find too many takers for Marquess of Queensberry Rules anymore. One needs a homogenous society for such things to work.
    .
    https://youtu.be/KP0jX3bCQ-A?t=75
    .
    PEACE 😇

    , @Dan Hayes
    @Europe Europa

    Maybe you can convince your black populace that civilian knife-warfare is so veddy, veddy un-British!

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    Yes, I also remember the epic scene at the end of Le Morte d'Arthur where King Arthur faces his illegitimate son Morded by stripping off his accoutrements to partake in a mortal contest of dickslaps to the face.

    Its all here on Fanfiction.net.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Europe Europa

    Oh grow up and join the real world. It would be wonderful if we didn’t need guns. We do and we will.

    Someone trying to kill, rape, or rob you is not a “man trying to resolve differences.”

    Try reasoning with the attacker instead of drawing a gun and you end up dead, paralyzed, badly beaten, raped, whatever the attacker wants. Propose “an honest manly fistfight” with an ill-willed aggressor and get shot, stabbed, swarmed by a group, kicked while you’re down, and worse (if they can muster the strength to keep hitting you while they’re laughing).

    Tell the woman, the elderly person, the handicapped person, the injured person, the small and slightly built man, to reason with the attacker or fight him off with her own bare hands.

    Or use “pepper spray”, yeah that’ll do it. Blow that “rape whistle” and yell “no” and kick and hope for help to arrive quickly.

    My friend was raped as a teen; a good gun-banning “liberal”, she was of course not carrying a gun and sanctimoniously insisted on doing volunteer work in the heavily African city of Trenton, New Jersey. She traveled to and from the volunteer site alone. Even after the fact, she remained in favor of confiscating everyone’s handguns (so that other women in that situation would be helplessly savaged).

    By contrast, my sister was accosted by two men in a parking lot at night after teaching a classroom course in Albuquerque, New Mexico. She placed her hand on her gun, warned them that she was armed, and told them to leave the area. They didn’t listen, smirking and advancing on her instead. She pulled her gun out and pointed it and suddenly they decided to turn and run like the tough guys they were. (Unfortunately for them, what they didn’t know is that the OTHER course she taught was a Self-Defense With Firearms course for women. Delicious justice.)

    Should my sister have tried to resolve their “differences” by pleading with them, or proposing that she, a small weak woman, box the two of them to determine a winner?

    Do you advise your wife and daughter to go about unarmed in cities and try to “resolve their differences” with a mugger or rapist? I really expect an answer.

  75. @Europe Europa
    @Daniel Chieh

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don't come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don't carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Dan Hayes, @Daniel Chieh, @RadicalCenter

    Yes. Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Philip Owen


    Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.
     
    That is a very SJW mind set.

    Most people I know view a gun as tool. You use one to:

    -- Obtain food.
    -- Deal with bears, or smaller critters with rabies.
    -- Fend off two legged predators threatening your wife and kids.

    Gangsta Rappers with gold plated guns to match their teeth have masculinity problems. Fortunately, there are not too many of those.

    PEACE 😇

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Philip Owen

    Plenty of gunowners can readily correct your bitchy, mocking, painfully naive attitude without using a gun. You can show us how they are pansies and you are tough.

    Do you advise your own wife and daughter to go about in cities unarmed and try to “resolve their differences” with men who try to rape or assault them? Yes or no.

  76. @Europe Europa
    @Daniel Chieh

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don't come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don't carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Dan Hayes, @Daniel Chieh, @RadicalCenter

    I do not think you will find too many takers for Marquess of Queensberry Rules anymore. One needs a homogenous society for such things to work.
    .

    .
    PEACE 😇

  77. @Europe Europa
    Why does brandishing a gun make him "manly" and "Alpha"? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don't suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes "full Maidan", but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Dreadilk, @Daniel Chieh, @EldnahYm, @Hyperborean, @Philip Owen, @Anatoly Karlin

    The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.

    Well, it’s not like Luka has cardinal problems with Americans.

    In the “foreign backed color revolution” rhetoric a few days ago, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Holland, and Czechia were named as the instigators – pointedly, not the US.

    Probably Luka hopes to preserve at least the possibility of the US remaining a “vector” in a revamped “multivector” policy should he survive the current crisis in the long-term without becoming a complete Russian vassal.

    [MORE]

  78. @Philip Owen
    @Dreadilk

    Russia has already broken under sanctions. That's why the 2014 countersanctions were needed.

    Replies: @Korenchkin

    You have some rather absurd beliefs regarding economics and international relations

    • Agree: mal, RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Korenchkin

    I speak as a participant and first hand observer on the ground. I had to let my Russian employees go three years ago. They are still looking for (senior level) work. One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.

    You?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Korenchkin, @Gerard-Mandela

  79. Venezuelan scenario for Belarus? The anglosionist axis is thinking about the Venezualization of Belarus.

    https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6120382.html

    This is an implicit admission of the failure of the Belamaidan. If the axis move in that direction, it will be easier for Russia to re-orbiting Belarus into the Russosphere.
    Events are developing according Anatoly’s “optimal path”. Pontryagin principle applied to geopolitics. LOL.

  80. @Europe Europa
    @Daniel Chieh

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don't come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don't carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Dan Hayes, @Daniel Chieh, @RadicalCenter

    Maybe you can convince your black populace that civilian knife-warfare is so veddy, veddy un-British!

    • Thanks: RadicalCenter
  81. @Philip Owen
    @Europe Europa

    Yes. Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.

    Replies: @A123, @RadicalCenter

    Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.

    That is a very SJW mind set.

    Most people I know view a gun as tool. You use one to:

    — Obtain food.
    — Deal with bears, or smaller critters with rabies.
    — Fend off two legged predators threatening your wife and kids.

    Gangsta Rappers with gold plated guns to match their teeth have masculinity problems. Fortunately, there are not too many of those.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  82. @Europe Europa
    @Daniel Chieh

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don't come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don't carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Dan Hayes, @Daniel Chieh, @RadicalCenter

    Yes, I also remember the epic scene at the end of Le Morte d’Arthur where King Arthur faces his illegitimate son Morded by stripping off his accoutrements to partake in a mortal contest of dickslaps to the face.

    Its all here on Fanfiction.net.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Daniel Chieh

    Don’t talk like that, you’ll just get Europa and Phil excited.

  83. Luka is raising the level of emergency preparedness of his troops and is calling in reservists. Does he know something nobody else does? To the best of my knowledge, Lithuania and Poland, however stupid, are not mad enough to send their troops to Belarus. Or are they?

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @AnonFromTN

    I don’t think so. Poland always had imperial delusions above her weight but trying to intervene in Belarus will give Putin the perfect chance to intervene.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    , @Philip Owen
    @AnonFromTN

    Theatre. "I will save you from foreign enemies" is the technique with which nationalism was invented. Never mind that it was one lot of landlords trying to displace another.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    , @Ano4
    @AnonFromTN

    https://southfront.org/tough-guy-lukashenko-vs-baltic-superpower/

    I wonder if as both Russia and NATO are raising stakes, a provocation around Kaliningrad and Suwalki Gap would be possible.

    This was one of the potential starting scenarios for a limited conflict between Russia and NATO in Eastern Europe.

    Lithuania might also refuse to renew the transit agreement between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

  84. By the way concerning “Belorussia” vs “Belarus”: in the last days in the news in Germany there were a lot of reports which mentioned “Belarus”. Sounds awkward to me, since as far as I know the country has been called “Weißrussland” before. But I don’t know when the news agencies switched to the new term and if this a recent development.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    @Erik Sieven

    It is part of the campaign to separate Belorussia from the Russian Federation.

    German public television:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/weissrussland-bezeichnung-belarus-100.html


    Umgangssprachlich ist der Begriff "Weißrussland" okay, politisch ist er problematisch
     
    "Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic"

    Replies: @songbird, @AnonFromTN

  85. @Erik Sieven
    By the way concerning "Belorussia" vs "Belarus": in the last days in the news in Germany there were a lot of reports which mentioned "Belarus". Sounds awkward to me, since as far as I know the country has been called "Weißrussland" before. But I don't know when the news agencies switched to the new term and if this a recent development.

    Replies: @Mitleser

    It is part of the campaign to separate Belorussia from the Russian Federation.

    German public television:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/weissrussland-bezeichnung-belarus-100.html

    Umgangssprachlich ist der Begriff “Weißrussland” okay, politisch ist er problematisch

    “Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic”

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mitleser

    They probably object to "Weiß" as much as they object to "russland."

    , @AnonFromTN
    @Mitleser


    “Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic”
     
    Meaning, globohomo disapproves of it. In that case, in my book it’s a better term. Let’s at least irritate globohomo.
  86. @AnonFromTN
    Luka is raising the level of emergency preparedness of his troops and is calling in reservists. Does he know something nobody else does? To the best of my knowledge, Lithuania and Poland, however stupid, are not mad enough to send their troops to Belarus. Or are they?

    Replies: @Aedib, @Philip Owen, @Ano4

    I don’t think so. Poland always had imperial delusions above her weight but trying to intervene in Belarus will give Putin the perfect chance to intervene.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Aedib


    Poland always had imperial delusions above her weight but trying to intervene in Belarus will give Putin the perfect chance to intervene.
     
    That’s what I mean. I know that Polish elites are stupid, but are they crazy?
  87. @Mitleser
    @Erik Sieven

    It is part of the campaign to separate Belorussia from the Russian Federation.

    German public television:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/weissrussland-bezeichnung-belarus-100.html


    Umgangssprachlich ist der Begriff "Weißrussland" okay, politisch ist er problematisch
     
    "Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic"

    Replies: @songbird, @AnonFromTN

    They probably object to “Weiß” as much as they object to “russland.”

  88. @Mitleser
    @Erik Sieven

    It is part of the campaign to separate Belorussia from the Russian Federation.

    German public television:
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/weissrussland-bezeichnung-belarus-100.html


    Umgangssprachlich ist der Begriff "Weißrussland" okay, politisch ist er problematisch
     
    "Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic"

    Replies: @songbird, @AnonFromTN

    “Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic”

    Meaning, globohomo disapproves of it. In that case, in my book it’s a better term. Let’s at least irritate globohomo.

  89. @Aedib
    @AnonFromTN

    I don’t think so. Poland always had imperial delusions above her weight but trying to intervene in Belarus will give Putin the perfect chance to intervene.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    Poland always had imperial delusions above her weight but trying to intervene in Belarus will give Putin the perfect chance to intervene.

    That’s what I mean. I know that Polish elites are stupid, but are they crazy?

  90. @AnonFromTN
    @Beckow


    somebody will nuke somebody
     
    You grossly overestimate the perceived importance of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. Even put together they won’t appear like a sufficient reason to use nukes, neither to Russia, nor to the Empire. Neither side has any illusions who is who. Bantustans come and go, inconsequential and disposable in the big game.

    Replies: @Beckow, @GazaPlanet

    That’s what Ribbentrop thought about Poland. That’s the mistake you make when you do not view things objectively, i.e., when you ignore the preeminent role of the Jews.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @GazaPlanet

    Are there Jews in Poland? I was under the impression that there are even fewer Jews in today’s Poland than in today’s Germany. Their masters, though, have plenty of Jews in high places. But the US is not suicidal. Why should Poland be?

    , @A123
    @GazaPlanet


    That’s what I mean. I know that Polish elites are stupid, but are they crazy?
     
    German SJW Elites are incredibly stupid, and Merkel is a total nutter. Perhaps Luka has evidence that the Reich is going to attack. Remember, incompetence and overreach define German military offensives.

    More likely Luka is calling up forces to make them available for internal use if needed. It is notoriously hard to activate reserves after a crisis begins impeding communications and transportation.

    PEACE 😇

  91. Occupied Greater Germany.

  92. @Korenchkin
    @Philip Owen

    You have some rather absurd beliefs regarding economics and international relations

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    I speak as a participant and first hand observer on the ground. I had to let my Russian employees go three years ago. They are still looking for (senior level) work. One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.

    You?

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Philip Owen

    No one believes you.

    , @Korenchkin
    @Philip Owen

    Well better buckle up, the real stress test is here

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Gerard-Mandela
    @Philip Owen


    One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.
     
    Phil, you are obviously not that smart ( or pretending). It's ridiculous to propagate the idea that a person running $150million projects would not be able to get a job in three years...particularly when the construction industry in Russia is going quite well despite the drivel in your posts.

    "Broken under sanctions" is again cretinous drivel. I suppose it could be subjective in that 4% growth for China and India is a disaster, but great for most other countries....but unless you tell me what numbers you consider as "broken under sanctions", or what side effects ( crime, failing infrastructure, health etc) then I can't take seriously nonsense like that when Russia's GDP growth has been at the same level, or even better than Germany,UK, Italy, France and nearly all EU countries.

    FDI is low - but not for meritocratic reasons - every measure shows that the investment climate has improved

    Credit market for individuals and businesses is gigantically different now compared to before 2014 - far more loans , much larger amounts and at much lower interest rate ( still some distance between rate now compared to western rates but going in correct direction) now than 6 years ago. If you had asked anybody in 2013 if this was a possibility in Russia then everybody would be thinking probably not....or that the whole market would collapse because us Russians would not regularly follow our payments. Which of the major companies had bad results last year?Not many

    Banderastan economy is a disaster.....I would add that Crimea growth last year was about 5.5%

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  93. @AnonFromTN
    Luka is raising the level of emergency preparedness of his troops and is calling in reservists. Does he know something nobody else does? To the best of my knowledge, Lithuania and Poland, however stupid, are not mad enough to send their troops to Belarus. Or are they?

    Replies: @Aedib, @Philip Owen, @Ano4

    Theatre. “I will save you from foreign enemies” is the technique with which nationalism was invented. Never mind that it was one lot of landlords trying to displace another.

    • Agree: Ano4
    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen


    Theatre. “I will save you from foreign enemies”
     
    That’s what I am inclined to think. After all, the US uses this trick all the time (the war on drugs, the war on terrorism, Chinese virus, and other BS), and the sheeple swallows it hook, line, and sinker.
  94. @Philip Owen
    @Korenchkin

    I speak as a participant and first hand observer on the ground. I had to let my Russian employees go three years ago. They are still looking for (senior level) work. One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.

    You?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Korenchkin, @Gerard-Mandela

    No one believes you.

    • Disagree: Korenchkin, AP
  95. @Philip Owen
    @Korenchkin

    I speak as a participant and first hand observer on the ground. I had to let my Russian employees go three years ago. They are still looking for (senior level) work. One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.

    You?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Korenchkin, @Gerard-Mandela

    Well better buckle up, the real stress test is here

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Korenchkin

    With luck, asset prices will become so low that I will be able to persuade a foreign investor to buy a business or so. Certain sectors like farming are tricky because state subsidies are so high that large foreign investors are better to start from scratch. The market for industrial businesses is not quite so distorted and the service sector hardly at all but the service sector requires engagement with the management of the business.

  96. @Philip Owen
    @Dreadilk

    I didn't. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Mikel

    I didn’t. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.

    That’s what I thought myself, especially considering that the new leaders in Kiev were pro-West and pro-democracy.

    I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.

    In fact, they recovered most of Donbas with plenty of disregard for civilian lives and were about to rout the rebels when the belated help from the Russians that Girkin had been publicly begging for finally materialized.

    BTW, where does the Ukrainian army shelter itself inside the recovered territory, only on open ground?

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mikel


    I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.
     
    Nonsense. If they had, casualties would have been comparable to the scale of Grozny (35,000 dead civilians) or Syria (100,000 dead civilians). Instead they took “half measures”, returning fire at enemy positions in residential areas, occasional criminal random shooting, no systematic bloody assault on civilian areas. Total civilian casualties over the past 5 years, about 3,000. This is orders of magnitude lower than it would have been had the Ukrainian government acted like Putin towards its citizens in rebel-held territory.

    Replies: @Ano4, @Dreadilk, @Mikel

  97. @GazaPlanet
    @AnonFromTN

    That's what Ribbentrop thought about Poland. That's the mistake you make when you do not view things objectively, i.e., when you ignore the preeminent role of the Jews.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @A123

    Are there Jews in Poland? I was under the impression that there are even fewer Jews in today’s Poland than in today’s Germany. Their masters, though, have plenty of Jews in high places. But the US is not suicidal. Why should Poland be?

  98. @Philip Owen
    @AnonFromTN

    Theatre. "I will save you from foreign enemies" is the technique with which nationalism was invented. Never mind that it was one lot of landlords trying to displace another.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    Theatre. “I will save you from foreign enemies”

    That’s what I am inclined to think. After all, the US uses this trick all the time (the war on drugs, the war on terrorism, Chinese virus, and other BS), and the sheeple swallows it hook, line, and sinker.

  99. @Korenchkin
    @Philip Owen

    Well better buckle up, the real stress test is here

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    With luck, asset prices will become so low that I will be able to persuade a foreign investor to buy a business or so. Certain sectors like farming are tricky because state subsidies are so high that large foreign investors are better to start from scratch. The market for industrial businesses is not quite so distorted and the service sector hardly at all but the service sector requires engagement with the management of the business.

  100. @GazaPlanet
    @AnonFromTN

    That's what Ribbentrop thought about Poland. That's the mistake you make when you do not view things objectively, i.e., when you ignore the preeminent role of the Jews.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @A123

    That’s what I mean. I know that Polish elites are stupid, but are they crazy?

    German SJW Elites are incredibly stupid, and Merkel is a total nutter. Perhaps Luka has evidence that the Reich is going to attack. Remember, incompetence and overreach define German military offensives.

    More likely Luka is calling up forces to make them available for internal use if needed. It is notoriously hard to activate reserves after a crisis begins impeding communications and transportation.

    PEACE 😇

  101. @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    I didn’t. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.
     
    That's what I thought myself, especially considering that the new leaders in Kiev were pro-West and pro-democracy.

    I didn't expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West's support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.

    In fact, they recovered most of Donbas with plenty of disregard for civilian lives and were about to rout the rebels when the belated help from the Russians that Girkin had been publicly begging for finally materialized.

    BTW, where does the Ukrainian army shelter itself inside the recovered territory, only on open ground?

    Replies: @AP

    I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.

    Nonsense. If they had, casualties would have been comparable to the scale of Grozny (35,000 dead civilians) or Syria (100,000 dead civilians). Instead they took “half measures”, returning fire at enemy positions in residential areas, occasional criminal random shooting, no systematic bloody assault on civilian areas. Total civilian casualties over the past 5 years, about 3,000. This is orders of magnitude lower than it would have been had the Ukrainian government acted like Putin towards its citizens in rebel-held territory.

    • Replies: @Ano4
    @AP

    People of Donetsk and Lugansk would disagree. I am pretty sure you are aware of the effects of the early bombing raids and artillery shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That's probably the main reason why the locals definitely turned their backs on a potential return to Ukrainian rule. Terror tactics rarely win hearts.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Dreadilk
    @AP

    The only reason they did not was because of Russia. Russia announced they will not allow Russian population to be killed. Last time they said that Georgia called it a bluff and learned a painfull lesson.

    Anyways both sides seiged cities in Ukraine and took cities. Low civilian deaths has to be explained by something else. If I had to guess is because both militaries view civilians as their people unlike Arab countries who could give a fuck. Plus the armies involved are much more organized and disciplined.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Aedib

    , @Mikel
    @AP

    I didn't say that the Ukrainians went for Rwanda-style or Grozny-level kind of attacks. I said that they did what any level-headed, non biased observer would readily acknowledge:

    - Full-on military solution. While they called it an "ATO", they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.

    - This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead (almost 4,000 of them civilians), tens of thousands more maimed and injured, blocks of apartments razed, schools destroyed, city centers bombed,...

    - They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can't help but admit. To quote your own words:


    Both sides showed callous disregard for human life
     
    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels, which suggests that there is more at play than the rebels being in the largest cities.

    Replies: @Aedib, @AP

  102. @Philip Owen
    @Russian Unionist

    That was Then. This is Now after the costs of such strutting have been revealed. Russia is no longer drunk on oil money. It has to rely more on its own work which is not so productive not such high quality.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @SveVid

    Actually Russia hasn’t been in such a solid position in generations. You’ve thrown everything but the kitchen sink at them and they’ve just shrugged it off.

    The Eu on the other hand looks decisively half dead

    And I won’t even bother describing the state that merry old England is in

  103. @AnonFromTN
    Luka is raising the level of emergency preparedness of his troops and is calling in reservists. Does he know something nobody else does? To the best of my knowledge, Lithuania and Poland, however stupid, are not mad enough to send their troops to Belarus. Or are they?

    Replies: @Aedib, @Philip Owen, @Ano4

    https://southfront.org/tough-guy-lukashenko-vs-baltic-superpower/

    I wonder if as both Russia and NATO are raising stakes, a provocation around Kaliningrad and Suwalki Gap would be possible.

    This was one of the potential starting scenarios for a limited conflict between Russia and NATO in Eastern Europe.

    Lithuania might also refuse to renew the transit agreement between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

  104. @AP
    @Mikel


    I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.
     
    Nonsense. If they had, casualties would have been comparable to the scale of Grozny (35,000 dead civilians) or Syria (100,000 dead civilians). Instead they took “half measures”, returning fire at enemy positions in residential areas, occasional criminal random shooting, no systematic bloody assault on civilian areas. Total civilian casualties over the past 5 years, about 3,000. This is orders of magnitude lower than it would have been had the Ukrainian government acted like Putin towards its citizens in rebel-held territory.

    Replies: @Ano4, @Dreadilk, @Mikel

    People of Donetsk and Lugansk would disagree. I am pretty sure you are aware of the effects of the early bombing raids and artillery shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That’s probably the main reason why the locals definitely turned their backs on a potential return to Ukrainian rule. Terror tactics rarely win hearts.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Ano4


    People of Donetsk and Lugansk would disagree.
     
    Probably. But objectively they would be wrong.

    I am pretty sure you are aware of the effects of the early bombing raids and artillery shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That’s probably the main reason why the locals definitely turned their backs on a potential return to Ukrainian rule
     
    Sure. Both sides showed callous disregard for human life, setting up positions in populated areas and returning fire into populated areas. The rebels are located in large cities so Ukrainian forces have killed more civilians than have the rebels- but don’t forget that the rebels also took out a bus stop full of civilians in Mariupol. However characterising the overall effort as a deliberate “bloodbath” is just wrong. If the government’s goal was mass killing, casualty counts would be at Chechen or Syrian levels (or even much higher), not 3,000 out of a population of 6 million in Donbas (4 million in rebel-held areas).

    Basically neither side was particularly careful with civilians but neither side was interested in genocide or mass killings.

  105. There is an unusual comment by a military doctor treating people injured by gunshot wounds during the protests:

    “I would like to stress the following: there were about 60 people with minor inuries. I am not really sure but they could be Russians, Ukrainians or somebody else.”

    From a largely pro-opposition source:

    https://belarusfeed.com/belarus-military-hospital-gunshot-wounds/

    Any other news sources cover Russians, Ukrainians, maybe Poles etc. participating in the protests?

  106. If Russia sends troops to Belarus, Lithuania might refuse to renew the Kaliningrad transit agreement. Lithuania might also shut down the only gaz pipeline allowing Russian gaz to reach Kaliningrad.

    Kaliningrad would then become the equivalent of West Berlin during the Berlin crisis. Russia would have to supply the enclave by sea and air only.

    Russian armed forces might then try to ensure direct access to Kaliningrad from Belarus through the Suwalki Gap.

    [A]ny action targeted at the Suwalki Gap and the Baltic States would take Russia literally into new territory, militarily as well as politically

    https://polandin.com/49444421/analysis-could-the-belarus-crisis-have-implications-for-the-suwalki-gap

    This might be the real reason behind the relocation of US troops from Germany to Poland.

    If such a crisis is to occur, it would most probably happen around the presidential election time in the US.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    @Ano4


    Lithuania might also shut down the only gaz pipeline allowing Russian gaz to reach Kaliningrad.
     
    Kaliningrad has a LNG terminal since last year.

    Replies: @Ano4

  107. @AP
    @Mikel


    I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.
     
    Nonsense. If they had, casualties would have been comparable to the scale of Grozny (35,000 dead civilians) or Syria (100,000 dead civilians). Instead they took “half measures”, returning fire at enemy positions in residential areas, occasional criminal random shooting, no systematic bloody assault on civilian areas. Total civilian casualties over the past 5 years, about 3,000. This is orders of magnitude lower than it would have been had the Ukrainian government acted like Putin towards its citizens in rebel-held territory.

    Replies: @Ano4, @Dreadilk, @Mikel

    The only reason they did not was because of Russia. Russia announced they will not allow Russian population to be killed. Last time they said that Georgia called it a bluff and learned a painfull lesson.

    Anyways both sides seiged cities in Ukraine and took cities. Low civilian deaths has to be explained by something else. If I had to guess is because both militaries view civilians as their people unlike Arab countries who could give a fuck. Plus the armies involved are much more organized and disciplined.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Dreadilk

    I just realized my post sounds contradictory. To clarify I think the threat of Russia coming to civilian defense as the bigger factor.

    , @Aedib
    @Dreadilk

    They tried to have in Donbas the bloodbath they expected to fulfill in Crimea. Crimea was promptly negated and in Donbas, Bandera battalions learned to not do it by the hard way (military defeat).

    Replies: @AP

  108. @Ano4
    @AP

    People of Donetsk and Lugansk would disagree. I am pretty sure you are aware of the effects of the early bombing raids and artillery shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That's probably the main reason why the locals definitely turned their backs on a potential return to Ukrainian rule. Terror tactics rarely win hearts.

    Replies: @AP

    People of Donetsk and Lugansk would disagree.

    Probably. But objectively they would be wrong.

    I am pretty sure you are aware of the effects of the early bombing raids and artillery shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That’s probably the main reason why the locals definitely turned their backs on a potential return to Ukrainian rule

    Sure. Both sides showed callous disregard for human life, setting up positions in populated areas and returning fire into populated areas. The rebels are located in large cities so Ukrainian forces have killed more civilians than have the rebels- but don’t forget that the rebels also took out a bus stop full of civilians in Mariupol. However characterising the overall effort as a deliberate “bloodbath” is just wrong. If the government’s goal was mass killing, casualty counts would be at Chechen or Syrian levels (or even much higher), not 3,000 out of a population of 6 million in Donbas (4 million in rebel-held areas).

    Basically neither side was particularly careful with civilians but neither side was interested in genocide or mass killings.

  109. @Dreadilk
    @AP

    The only reason they did not was because of Russia. Russia announced they will not allow Russian population to be killed. Last time they said that Georgia called it a bluff and learned a painfull lesson.

    Anyways both sides seiged cities in Ukraine and took cities. Low civilian deaths has to be explained by something else. If I had to guess is because both militaries view civilians as their people unlike Arab countries who could give a fuck. Plus the armies involved are much more organized and disciplined.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Aedib

    I just realized my post sounds contradictory. To clarify I think the threat of Russia coming to civilian defense as the bigger factor.

  110. @Dreadilk
    @AP

    The only reason they did not was because of Russia. Russia announced they will not allow Russian population to be killed. Last time they said that Georgia called it a bluff and learned a painfull lesson.

    Anyways both sides seiged cities in Ukraine and took cities. Low civilian deaths has to be explained by something else. If I had to guess is because both militaries view civilians as their people unlike Arab countries who could give a fuck. Plus the armies involved are much more organized and disciplined.

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Aedib

    They tried to have in Donbas the bloodbath they expected to fulfill in Crimea. Crimea was promptly negated and in Donbas, Bandera battalions learned to not do it by the hard way (military defeat).

    • Replies: @AP
    @Aedib

    Nonsense. Donetsk with something like a million people is well within range of Ukrainian weapons. Bloodbath in Donbas as in Syria or Chechnya would have been accomplished with shells, missiles and rockets if the Ukrainians wanted to do it. But they didn’t.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Dreadilk

  111. @Aedib
    @Dreadilk

    They tried to have in Donbas the bloodbath they expected to fulfill in Crimea. Crimea was promptly negated and in Donbas, Bandera battalions learned to not do it by the hard way (military defeat).

    Replies: @AP

    Nonsense. Donetsk with something like a million people is well within range of Ukrainian weapons. Bloodbath in Donbas as in Syria or Chechnya would have been accomplished with shells, missiles and rockets if the Ukrainians wanted to do it. But they didn’t.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @AP

    I perfectly remember the sentence of a notable Maidan putchist “Promise them all, we will hang them later”.

    Replies: @AP, @Ano4

    , @Dreadilk
    @AP

    Russian counter battery fire is better.

  112. @AP
    @Aedib

    Nonsense. Donetsk with something like a million people is well within range of Ukrainian weapons. Bloodbath in Donbas as in Syria or Chechnya would have been accomplished with shells, missiles and rockets if the Ukrainians wanted to do it. But they didn’t.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Dreadilk

    I perfectly remember the sentence of a notable Maidan putchist “Promise them all, we will hang them later”.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Aedib

    So there were mass hangings in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in your world?

    Replies: @Aedib

    , @Ano4
    @Aedib

    Filatov was not a Maidan putschist. He is an ethnic Russian decorated with a medal by the Russian Orthodox Church for his efforts in its service prior to Maidan. A member of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarchic group, Filatov was working under the patronage of the Ukrainian Jewish oligarch Kolomoisky. This oligarch had a business conflict with the Yanukovich clan and some East Ukraine oligarchic groups from Donbass, which went closely aligned with Russian interests in Ukraine and Europe in general.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borys_Filatov

    As a business associate of Kolomoisky, Filatov was directly interested in Yanukovich losing power and Russian influence being curtailed in Ukraine. He saw pro-Russia forces as a nuisance to be dealt with in order to maintain the benefits of the oligarchic clan to which he belonged.

    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.

    The nationalists and ideologically motivated combatants on both sides are useful idiots. Cannon fodder really. Those who do not conform with the oligarchic interests get eliminated on both sides of the conflict.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

  113. @Aedib
    @AP

    I perfectly remember the sentence of a notable Maidan putchist “Promise them all, we will hang them later”.

    Replies: @AP, @Ano4

    So there were mass hangings in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in your world?

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @AP

    This still doesn’t delete Banderist whishes. They just had a problem: they were defeated in Ilovaisk. After this humiliation they didn´t tried anymore.

    Replies: @AP

  114. @Aedib
    @AP

    I perfectly remember the sentence of a notable Maidan putchist “Promise them all, we will hang them later”.

    Replies: @AP, @Ano4

    Filatov was not a Maidan putschist. He is an ethnic Russian decorated with a medal by the Russian Orthodox Church for his efforts in its service prior to Maidan. A member of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarchic group, Filatov was working under the patronage of the Ukrainian Jewish oligarch Kolomoisky. This oligarch had a business conflict with the Yanukovich clan and some East Ukraine oligarchic groups from Donbass, which went closely aligned with Russian interests in Ukraine and Europe in general.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borys_Filatov

    As a business associate of Kolomoisky, Filatov was directly interested in Yanukovich losing power and Russian influence being curtailed in Ukraine. He saw pro-Russia forces as a nuisance to be dealt with in order to maintain the benefits of the oligarchic clan to which he belonged.

    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.

    The nationalists and ideologically motivated combatants on both sides are useful idiots. Cannon fodder really. Those who do not conform with the oligarchic interests get eliminated on both sides of the conflict.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @AP
    @Ano4

    Generally agree with your comment but there is more at play also. The grassroots movement was huge and critical. Oligarchs alone wouldn’t have done this.

    Replies: @Ano4

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Ano4


    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.
     
    How exactly do the oligarchs manage to exert such influence? I mean in Ukraine they're not very united, as you point out. Not all that long ago, under Yanukovych, the siloviki were officially known as Berkut, and they were quite loyal to their Donbas chieftan, to the extent that they either took orders from him directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow, that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Ano4

  115. @AP
    @Aedib

    So there were mass hangings in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in your world?

    Replies: @Aedib

    This still doesn’t delete Banderist whishes. They just had a problem: they were defeated in Ilovaisk. After this humiliation they didn´t tried anymore.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Aedib

    I had no idea they lost control of Sloviansk and Karamatorsk after Ilovaisk, thus preventing them from hanging everybody like you say they planned to do.

  116. @AP
    @Aedib

    Nonsense. Donetsk with something like a million people is well within range of Ukrainian weapons. Bloodbath in Donbas as in Syria or Chechnya would have been accomplished with shells, missiles and rockets if the Ukrainians wanted to do it. But they didn’t.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Dreadilk

    Russian counter battery fire is better.

  117. @AP
    @Mikel


    I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.
     
    Nonsense. If they had, casualties would have been comparable to the scale of Grozny (35,000 dead civilians) or Syria (100,000 dead civilians). Instead they took “half measures”, returning fire at enemy positions in residential areas, occasional criminal random shooting, no systematic bloody assault on civilian areas. Total civilian casualties over the past 5 years, about 3,000. This is orders of magnitude lower than it would have been had the Ukrainian government acted like Putin towards its citizens in rebel-held territory.

    Replies: @Ano4, @Dreadilk, @Mikel

    I didn’t say that the Ukrainians went for Rwanda-style or Grozny-level kind of attacks. I said that they did what any level-headed, non biased observer would readily acknowledge:

    Full-on military solution. While they called it an “ATO”, they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.

    – This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead (almost 4,000 of them civilians), tens of thousands more maimed and injured, blocks of apartments razed, schools destroyed, city centers bombed,…

    – They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can’t help but admit. To quote your own words:

    Both sides showed callous disregard for human life

    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels, which suggests that there is more at play than the rebels being in the largest cities.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Mikel

    I think, it was not an “official” Ukrainian policy. It was some kind of “let our heroes do harm. Anyway, Donbas people are inferior sub-human scum”. Off-course they screamed when Ukro-prisoners defeated by Donbas militias were paraded on the Donetsk’ square.

    , @AP
    @Mikel


    Full-on military solution. While they called it an “ATO”, they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.
     
    And yet, rather small number of civilian casualties. Looks like they weren't trying to create mass death.

    This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead
     
    13,000 to 13,200 total dead according to UN (see link below).

    About 10,000 soldiers were killed in 6 years of warfare (though most deaths occurred in the first two years). If this was a "bloodath" what would you call an actual war? Was Chechnya a cosmic apocalypse in your terminology?


    (almost 4,000 of them civilians)
     
    Your dishonesty is on display again.

    UN report, page 7:

    https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/29thReportUkraine_EN.pdf

    During the entire conflict period, from 14 April 2014 to 15 February 2020, OHCHR recorded in total 3,052 conflict-related civilian deaths (1,812 men, 1,056 women, 98 boys, 49 girls and 37 adults whose sex is unknown).

    Another 298 were killed in the Malaysian plane that was accidentally shot down by rebels.


    They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can’t help but admit.
     
    Your implication that I would cover something up is dishonest, also. But it's who you are, you can't help it.

    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels,
     
    Rebels are holed up in densely populated areas, Ukrainians are not (or are, to a much lesser extent).

    Here is the front line. Notice the large cities on the rebel side that are right on the front:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg/300px-Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg.png

    The Ukrainian government managed to keep clear a buffer zone separating its largest held city, Mariupol, from the front. Rebels haven't done so, they have densely populated cities right on the front line.

    When the two sides exchange artillery fire more civilians on the rebel side are bound to get hit, unfortunately.

    Replies: @Mikel

  118. @Ano4
    @Aedib

    Filatov was not a Maidan putschist. He is an ethnic Russian decorated with a medal by the Russian Orthodox Church for his efforts in its service prior to Maidan. A member of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarchic group, Filatov was working under the patronage of the Ukrainian Jewish oligarch Kolomoisky. This oligarch had a business conflict with the Yanukovich clan and some East Ukraine oligarchic groups from Donbass, which went closely aligned with Russian interests in Ukraine and Europe in general.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borys_Filatov

    As a business associate of Kolomoisky, Filatov was directly interested in Yanukovich losing power and Russian influence being curtailed in Ukraine. He saw pro-Russia forces as a nuisance to be dealt with in order to maintain the benefits of the oligarchic clan to which he belonged.

    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.

    The nationalists and ideologically motivated combatants on both sides are useful idiots. Cannon fodder really. Those who do not conform with the oligarchic interests get eliminated on both sides of the conflict.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    Generally agree with your comment but there is more at play also. The grassroots movement was huge and critical. Oligarchs alone wouldn’t have done this.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Ano4
    @AP

    Sure, the conflict was well ingrained into the Ukrainian society so there were vigilantes ready on both sides. And then there were Nuland's cookies...

  119. @Daniel Chieh
    @Pericles

    No, RT should cover the urgent issue of oppression directed at gamers, the most forgotten minority. Shilling for Russian studios optional but consistent with original mission statement.

    Replies: @Pericles

    Truly the nuclear option. Let’s not be hasty now.

  120. @Ano4
    If Russia sends troops to Belarus, Lithuania might refuse to renew the Kaliningrad transit agreement. Lithuania might also shut down the only gaz pipeline allowing Russian gaz to reach Kaliningrad.

    Kaliningrad would then become the equivalent of West Berlin during the Berlin crisis. Russia would have to supply the enclave by sea and air only.

    Russian armed forces might then try to ensure direct access to Kaliningrad from Belarus through the Suwalki Gap.


    [A]ny action targeted at the Suwalki Gap and the Baltic States would take Russia literally into new territory, militarily as well as politically
     
    https://polandin.com/49444421/analysis-could-the-belarus-crisis-have-implications-for-the-suwalki-gap

    This might be the real reason behind the relocation of US troops from Germany to Poland.

    If such a crisis is to occur, it would most probably happen around the presidential election time in the US.

    Replies: @Mitleser

    Lithuania might also shut down the only gaz pipeline allowing Russian gaz to reach Kaliningrad.

    Kaliningrad has a LNG terminal since last year.

    • Replies: @Ano4
    @Mitleser

    That's why I wrote that the enclave might be supplied by sea. But if the situation becomes tense enough, supplying Kaliningrad will become quite difficult. That is why Russia will probably need to fight NATO if Kaliningrad enclave is put under blockade by its neighbors.

  121. @Mitleser
    @Ano4


    Lithuania might also shut down the only gaz pipeline allowing Russian gaz to reach Kaliningrad.
     
    Kaliningrad has a LNG terminal since last year.

    Replies: @Ano4

    That’s why I wrote that the enclave might be supplied by sea. But if the situation becomes tense enough, supplying Kaliningrad will become quite difficult. That is why Russia will probably need to fight NATO if Kaliningrad enclave is put under blockade by its neighbors.

  122. @Mikel
    @AP

    I didn't say that the Ukrainians went for Rwanda-style or Grozny-level kind of attacks. I said that they did what any level-headed, non biased observer would readily acknowledge:

    - Full-on military solution. While they called it an "ATO", they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.

    - This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead (almost 4,000 of them civilians), tens of thousands more maimed and injured, blocks of apartments razed, schools destroyed, city centers bombed,...

    - They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can't help but admit. To quote your own words:


    Both sides showed callous disregard for human life
     
    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels, which suggests that there is more at play than the rebels being in the largest cities.

    Replies: @Aedib, @AP

    I think, it was not an “official” Ukrainian policy. It was some kind of “let our heroes do harm. Anyway, Donbas people are inferior sub-human scum”. Off-course they screamed when Ukro-prisoners defeated by Donbas militias were paraded on the Donetsk’ square.

  123. @AP
    @Ano4

    Generally agree with your comment but there is more at play also. The grassroots movement was huge and critical. Oligarchs alone wouldn’t have done this.

    Replies: @Ano4

    Sure, the conflict was well ingrained into the Ukrainian society so there were vigilantes ready on both sides. And then there were Nuland’s cookies…

  124. @Ano4
    @Aedib

    Filatov was not a Maidan putschist. He is an ethnic Russian decorated with a medal by the Russian Orthodox Church for his efforts in its service prior to Maidan. A member of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarchic group, Filatov was working under the patronage of the Ukrainian Jewish oligarch Kolomoisky. This oligarch had a business conflict with the Yanukovich clan and some East Ukraine oligarchic groups from Donbass, which went closely aligned with Russian interests in Ukraine and Europe in general.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borys_Filatov

    As a business associate of Kolomoisky, Filatov was directly interested in Yanukovich losing power and Russian influence being curtailed in Ukraine. He saw pro-Russia forces as a nuisance to be dealt with in order to maintain the benefits of the oligarchic clan to which he belonged.

    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.

    The nationalists and ideologically motivated combatants on both sides are useful idiots. Cannon fodder really. Those who do not conform with the oligarchic interests get eliminated on both sides of the conflict.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.

    How exactly do the oligarchs manage to exert such influence? I mean in Ukraine they’re not very united, as you point out. Not all that long ago, under Yanukovych, the siloviki were officially known as Berkut, and they were quite loyal to their Donbas chieftan, to the extent that they either took orders from him directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow, that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Mr. Hack


    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.
     
    That’s a lie spread by those who used the same scenario with snipers in Sarajevo, then in Deraa, then in Kiev. Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there. But Dr. Goebbels was right: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Gerard-Mandela

    , @Ano4
    @Mr. Hack

    Berkut was simply an anti riot police.

    Siloviki is a slang to define all the military/special service/police people in general.


    directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow
     
    Could you provide evidence for this?

    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

     

    The first shots were fired from the buildings held by the Ukrainian nationalists. The shots were fired on both protesters and the police. Among those who did the killing were several nationalist leaders (Parubyi was one of them). Later on the Georgian mercenaries snipers described in detail how they were taken to Kyiv, where they joined the nationalists operating under Lithuanian advisories who directed them to shoot indiscriminately to break the truce that has been negotiated between Yanukovich and the opposition by Russia and EU. USA needed the truce broken (remember "F*ck the EU" saying by Victoria Nuland).

    https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/26/he-killed-for-the-maidan/

    Berkut policemen, who worked exactly as supposed in line of duty, were not proven guilty of the killings. After several years of trial they were released.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/court-releases-berkut-prisoners-charged-with-euromaidan-killings.html

    The trial itself was a total fraud to cover up this Gladio style Black Ops by the Ukrainian nationalists aided by NATO advisers.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317972686_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Government_Investigations

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

  125. @Mr. Hack
    @Ano4


    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.
     
    How exactly do the oligarchs manage to exert such influence? I mean in Ukraine they're not very united, as you point out. Not all that long ago, under Yanukovych, the siloviki were officially known as Berkut, and they were quite loyal to their Donbas chieftan, to the extent that they either took orders from him directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow, that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Ano4

    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

    That’s a lie spread by those who used the same scenario with snipers in Sarajevo, then in Deraa, then in Kiev. Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there. But Dr. Goebbels was right: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”.

    • Agree: Ano4, Mitleser
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AnonFromTN

    Not according to this description of the events surrounding the murders:


    On 2 April, law enforcement authorities announced in a press conference they had detained nine suspects in the 18–20 February shootings of Euromaidan activists, acting Prosecutor General of Ukraine Oleh Makhnytsky reported. Among the detainees was the leader of the sniper squad. All of the detained are officers of the Kiev City Berkut unit, and verified the involvement of the SBU's Alfa Group in the shootings. Officials also reported that they plan to detain additional suspects in the Maidan shootings in the near future, and stressed that the investigation is ongoing, but hindered by the outgoing regime's destruction of all documents and evidence. Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed that Viktor Yanukovych gave the order to fire on protesters on 20 February.[318][319] During the press conference, Ukraine's interior minister, chief prosecutor and top security chief implicated more than 30 Russian FSB agents in the crackdown on protesters, who in addition to taking part in the planning, flew large quantities of explosives into an airport near Kiev. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the interim head of Ukraine's SBU state security agency, said the agents were stationed in Kiev during the entire Euromaidan protests, were provided with "state telecommunications" while residing at an SBU compound, and in regular contact with Ukrainian security officials. "We have substantiated grounds to consider that these very groups which were located at an SBU training ground took part in the planning and execution of activities of this so-called antiterrorist operation," said Nalyvaichenko. Investigators, he said, had established that Yanukovych's SBU chief Oleksandr Yakymenko, who had fled the country, had received reports from FSB agents while they were stationed in Ukraine, and that Yakymenko held several briefings with the agents. Russia's Federal Security Bureau rejected the comments as "groundless accusations" and otherwise refused to comment.[320]

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AnonFromTN

    , @Gerard-Mandela
    @AnonFromTN


    Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there
     
    Many of them were there( as in the 4 months that Maidan was on) ...and died of heart attack or a car crash completely unrelated to the shootings.

    Other things missed are that Yanukovich when he was impeached had "fled" the country....to Kharkov ( or was it Crimea?). Both him and Azarov say that their cars or wives cars were shot at
  126. @Mr. Hack
    @Ano4


    The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.
     
    How exactly do the oligarchs manage to exert such influence? I mean in Ukraine they're not very united, as you point out. Not all that long ago, under Yanukovych, the siloviki were officially known as Berkut, and they were quite loyal to their Donbas chieftan, to the extent that they either took orders from him directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow, that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Ano4

    Berkut was simply an anti riot police.

    Siloviki is a slang to define all the military/special service/police people in general.

    directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow

    Could you provide evidence for this?

    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

    The first shots were fired from the buildings held by the Ukrainian nationalists. The shots were fired on both protesters and the police. Among those who did the killing were several nationalist leaders (Parubyi was one of them). Later on the Georgian mercenaries snipers described in detail how they were taken to Kyiv, where they joined the nationalists operating under Lithuanian advisories who directed them to shoot indiscriminately to break the truce that has been negotiated between Yanukovich and the opposition by Russia and EU. USA needed the truce broken (remember “F*ck the EU” saying by Victoria Nuland).

    https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/26/he-killed-for-the-maidan/

    Berkut policemen, who worked exactly as supposed in line of duty, were not proven guilty of the killings. After several years of trial they were released.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/court-releases-berkut-prisoners-charged-with-euromaidan-killings.html

    The trial itself was a total fraud to cover up this Gladio style Black Ops by the Ukrainian nationalists aided by NATO advisers.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317972686_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Government_Investigations

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Ano4

    See footnotes 318 - 320 of the wikipedia article quoted above for more direct corroboration that you're looking for about Russian involvement.

    , @AP
    @Ano4

    A counterpoint to Katchanovsky's claims:

    https://ukraineanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/the-snipers-massacre-in-kyiv/

    The author, David Marples, has been involved with exposing Banderist crimes in Ukraine (he is linked to Himka) so he is not at all some sort of apologist for the Ukrainian far-right.

    A more biased nationalist source also provides other explanations:

    https://ukrainian-studies.ca/2014/12/01/taras-kuzio-study-ukrainian-nationalism-university-ottawa/?fbclid=IwAR1u0bRBMav9QCVOELanjliIwjc6LRAWgDWQJamtmnSV1D_wPBzFDnfEqSI



    There are various additional explanatory hypotheses for the shootings that Katchanovski never even considers, such as the chaos that results during pitched battles or the collateral damage that results from the actions of different police, Security Service (SBU) units and vigilantes (some of whom had ties to organized crime) involving weapons. Also, the possibility of Russian actors is for some reason never even entertained by Katchanovski. Ukayinska Pravda journalist Serhiy Leshchenko in his new book titled “Mezhyhirya Syndrome” about Yanukovych’s presidency investigates the influence and involvement of President Vladimir Putin and Russian intelligence operatives in Ukraine. Even Putin has admitted that his forces assisted in Yanukovych’s fleeing from Ukraine.

    A Western journalist in Kyiv that I interviewed (who desired to remain anonymous) heard from a number of sources that some of the snipers were from Russia. “One source from the presidential administration told me several times in December through February that Yanukovych had brought in mercenaries from Russia and had them based somewhere in central Kyiv, adding that it was not sure what the arrangement was and whether Putin had a direct role in providing them, but it was clear they were ready to shoot at the protestors if needed.” The role of “The Family” was also a factor in the snipers’ activities and later in the violence in the Donbas: “After the sniper shootings took place, this source said he heard from good sources that Yanukovych’s elder son gave the de facto orders to shoot. A second oligarch source said Yanukovych’s eldest son ‘Sasha’ gave the orders to shoot as he was sitting in the situation room.” On leaked intercepts of police radio traffic the words “Sasha, Sasha” are audible. The Western journalist investigating law enforcement officers asked who the snipers in black were, and the Interior Ministry and SBU claimed they were not their men and that they didn’t know who they were.’

  127. @AnonFromTN
    @Mr. Hack


    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.
     
    That’s a lie spread by those who used the same scenario with snipers in Sarajevo, then in Deraa, then in Kiev. Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there. But Dr. Goebbels was right: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Gerard-Mandela

    Not according to this description of the events surrounding the murders:

    On 2 April, law enforcement authorities announced in a press conference they had detained nine suspects in the 18–20 February shootings of Euromaidan activists, acting Prosecutor General of Ukraine Oleh Makhnytsky reported. Among the detainees was the leader of the sniper squad. All of the detained are officers of the Kiev City Berkut unit, and verified the involvement of the SBU’s Alfa Group in the shootings. Officials also reported that they plan to detain additional suspects in the Maidan shootings in the near future, and stressed that the investigation is ongoing, but hindered by the outgoing regime’s destruction of all documents and evidence. Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed that Viktor Yanukovych gave the order to fire on protesters on 20 February.[318][319] During the press conference, Ukraine’s interior minister, chief prosecutor and top security chief implicated more than 30 Russian FSB agents in the crackdown on protesters, who in addition to taking part in the planning, flew large quantities of explosives into an airport near Kiev. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the interim head of Ukraine’s SBU state security agency, said the agents were stationed in Kiev during the entire Euromaidan protests, were provided with “state telecommunications” while residing at an SBU compound, and in regular contact with Ukrainian security officials. “We have substantiated grounds to consider that these very groups which were located at an SBU training ground took part in the planning and execution of activities of this so-called antiterrorist operation,” said Nalyvaichenko. Investigators, he said, had established that Yanukovych’s SBU chief Oleksandr Yakymenko, who had fled the country, had received reports from FSB agents while they were stationed in Ukraine, and that Yakymenko held several briefings with the agents. Russia’s Federal Security Bureau rejected the comments as “groundless accusations” and otherwise refused to comment.[320]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    Here's even more informaiton regarding Russian involvement during the last days of the Maidan, leading up to the murder of Kyivan protesters:


    On 20 February Minister of Internal Affairs Vitaliy Zakharchenko announced he had signed a decree to authorize the usage of live ammunition against protesters.[397] Same day to Boryspil unofficially arrived a Russian delegation of seven people including Vladislav Surkov, a curator of the "Ukrainian scenario" in Kremlin.[398] The delegation was greeted by the head of SBU department of counterintelligence Volodymyr Bik.[398] According to the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, one of the members FSB Colonel General Sergei Beseda arrived to Kyiv to make sure appropriate level of security of the Russian embassies[398] which was considered unlikely as nobody from the Russian embassy arrived to meet their compatriots.[398]According to Andrei Soldatov, the delegation visited Kyiv to ensure loyalty of Yanukovych.[399]
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan

    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Ano4

    , @AnonFromTN
    @Mr. Hack


    Nalyvaichenko
     
    FYI, Nalyvaichenko was (and is) a known CIA asset. Goes to the credibility of his testimony.

    Surviving Georgian snipers told their story, scared by “accidental” deaths of their colleagues. Obviously, those who directed Maidan scenario subscribed to the wisdom that dead people tell no tales. The story told by snipers directly contradicts globohomo lies spread by the US, it’s vassals, and puppets (including Kiev puppets).

    Replies: @AP

  128. @Mikel
    @AP

    I didn't say that the Ukrainians went for Rwanda-style or Grozny-level kind of attacks. I said that they did what any level-headed, non biased observer would readily acknowledge:

    - Full-on military solution. While they called it an "ATO", they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.

    - This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead (almost 4,000 of them civilians), tens of thousands more maimed and injured, blocks of apartments razed, schools destroyed, city centers bombed,...

    - They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can't help but admit. To quote your own words:


    Both sides showed callous disregard for human life
     
    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels, which suggests that there is more at play than the rebels being in the largest cities.

    Replies: @Aedib, @AP

    Full-on military solution. While they called it an “ATO”, they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.

    And yet, rather small number of civilian casualties. Looks like they weren’t trying to create mass death.

    This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead

    13,000 to 13,200 total dead according to UN (see link below).

    About 10,000 soldiers were killed in 6 years of warfare (though most deaths occurred in the first two years). If this was a “bloodath” what would you call an actual war? Was Chechnya a cosmic apocalypse in your terminology?

    (almost 4,000 of them civilians)

    Your dishonesty is on display again.

    UN report, page 7:

    https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/29thReportUkraine_EN.pdf

    During the entire conflict period, from 14 April 2014 to 15 February 2020, OHCHR recorded in total 3,052 conflict-related civilian deaths (1,812 men, 1,056 women, 98 boys, 49 girls and 37 adults whose sex is unknown).

    Another 298 were killed in the Malaysian plane that was accidentally shot down by rebels.

    They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can’t help but admit.

    Your implication that I would cover something up is dishonest, also. But it’s who you are, you can’t help it.

    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels,

    Rebels are holed up in densely populated areas, Ukrainians are not (or are, to a much lesser extent).

    Here is the front line. Notice the large cities on the rebel side that are right on the front:

    The Ukrainian government managed to keep clear a buffer zone separating its largest held city, Mariupol, from the front. Rebels haven’t done so, they have densely populated cities right on the front line.

    When the two sides exchange artillery fire more civilians on the rebel side are bound to get hit, unfortunately.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @AP

    No, I didn't say that you were "covering up" anything. What happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas and, as so often in the past, you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it, you couldn't avoid making contradictory statements.

    At the beginning I thought that this knee-jerk reaction of yours whenever I mentioned the disastrous Ukrainian decision of confronting the Donbas rebellion with a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars was due to your being a Ukrainian nationalist. But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it's all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.

    It is well known that insulting unknown people on the internet and abusing prescription drugs are the two major addictions of the moment. I hope that you only indulge in the former.

    PS- Based on the OHCHR pdf, the figure of 3,000 civilian deaths looks closer to reality than the 4,000 that I used. I'm not sure if I used it based on some news article that I read or perhaps I remembered that in previous years the OHCHR declared that their figure was likely not complete and didn't include hundreds of missing persons. Of course this changes nothing about my original comment #96, as any non-perturbed person would be able to understand.

    PPS- I don't think that the size of the cities occupied by each combatant has much relationship with who causes more civilian casualties nowadays. Lately most of them have been occurring in small settlements close to the fronts. But the Ukrainian army is composed of far-right battalion volunteers (especially active on the front) and conscripts from the whole country (many of them from the West). It's by no means implausible that on average they have more disregard for "Moskali" civilian lives than the rebels, most of whom are local Donbas people.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @AP

  129. @Ano4
    @Mr. Hack

    Berkut was simply an anti riot police.

    Siloviki is a slang to define all the military/special service/police people in general.


    directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow
     
    Could you provide evidence for this?

    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

     

    The first shots were fired from the buildings held by the Ukrainian nationalists. The shots were fired on both protesters and the police. Among those who did the killing were several nationalist leaders (Parubyi was one of them). Later on the Georgian mercenaries snipers described in detail how they were taken to Kyiv, where they joined the nationalists operating under Lithuanian advisories who directed them to shoot indiscriminately to break the truce that has been negotiated between Yanukovich and the opposition by Russia and EU. USA needed the truce broken (remember "F*ck the EU" saying by Victoria Nuland).

    https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/26/he-killed-for-the-maidan/

    Berkut policemen, who worked exactly as supposed in line of duty, were not proven guilty of the killings. After several years of trial they were released.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/court-releases-berkut-prisoners-charged-with-euromaidan-killings.html

    The trial itself was a total fraud to cover up this Gladio style Black Ops by the Ukrainian nationalists aided by NATO advisers.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317972686_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Government_Investigations

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

    See footnotes 318 – 320 of the wikipedia article quoted above for more direct corroboration that you’re looking for about Russian involvement.

  130. @Aedib
    @AP

    This still doesn’t delete Banderist whishes. They just had a problem: they were defeated in Ilovaisk. After this humiliation they didn´t tried anymore.

    Replies: @AP

    I had no idea they lost control of Sloviansk and Karamatorsk after Ilovaisk, thus preventing them from hanging everybody like you say they planned to do.

  131. @Ano4
    @Mr. Hack

    Berkut was simply an anti riot police.

    Siloviki is a slang to define all the military/special service/police people in general.


    directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow
     
    Could you provide evidence for this?

    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.

     

    The first shots were fired from the buildings held by the Ukrainian nationalists. The shots were fired on both protesters and the police. Among those who did the killing were several nationalist leaders (Parubyi was one of them). Later on the Georgian mercenaries snipers described in detail how they were taken to Kyiv, where they joined the nationalists operating under Lithuanian advisories who directed them to shoot indiscriminately to break the truce that has been negotiated between Yanukovich and the opposition by Russia and EU. USA needed the truce broken (remember "F*ck the EU" saying by Victoria Nuland).

    https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/26/he-killed-for-the-maidan/

    Berkut policemen, who worked exactly as supposed in line of duty, were not proven guilty of the killings. After several years of trial they were released.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/court-releases-berkut-prisoners-charged-with-euromaidan-killings.html

    The trial itself was a total fraud to cover up this Gladio style Black Ops by the Ukrainian nationalists aided by NATO advisers.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317972686_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Government_Investigations

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

    A counterpoint to Katchanovsky’s claims:

    https://ukraineanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/the-snipers-massacre-in-kyiv/

    The author, David Marples, has been involved with exposing Banderist crimes in Ukraine (he is linked to Himka) so he is not at all some sort of apologist for the Ukrainian far-right.

    A more biased nationalist source also provides other explanations:

    https://ukrainian-studies.ca/2014/12/01/taras-kuzio-study-ukrainian-nationalism-university-ottawa/?fbclid=IwAR1u0bRBMav9QCVOELanjliIwjc6LRAWgDWQJamtmnSV1D_wPBzFDnfEqSI

    [MORE]

    There are various additional explanatory hypotheses for the shootings that Katchanovski never even considers, such as the chaos that results during pitched battles or the collateral damage that results from the actions of different police, Security Service (SBU) units and vigilantes (some of whom had ties to organized crime) involving weapons. Also, the possibility of Russian actors is for some reason never even entertained by Katchanovski. Ukayinska Pravda journalist Serhiy Leshchenko in his new book titled “Mezhyhirya Syndrome” about Yanukovych’s presidency investigates the influence and involvement of President Vladimir Putin and Russian intelligence operatives in Ukraine. Even Putin has admitted that his forces assisted in Yanukovych’s fleeing from Ukraine.

    A Western journalist in Kyiv that I interviewed (who desired to remain anonymous) heard from a number of sources that some of the snipers were from Russia. “One source from the presidential administration told me several times in December through February that Yanukovych had brought in mercenaries from Russia and had them based somewhere in central Kyiv, adding that it was not sure what the arrangement was and whether Putin had a direct role in providing them, but it was clear they were ready to shoot at the protestors if needed.” The role of “The Family” was also a factor in the snipers’ activities and later in the violence in the Donbas: “After the sniper shootings took place, this source said he heard from good sources that Yanukovych’s elder son gave the de facto orders to shoot. A second oligarch source said Yanukovych’s eldest son ‘Sasha’ gave the orders to shoot as he was sitting in the situation room.” On leaked intercepts of police radio traffic the words “Sasha, Sasha” are audible. The Western journalist investigating law enforcement officers asked who the snipers in black were, and the Interior Ministry and SBU claimed they were not their men and that they didn’t know who they were.’

  132. @Mr. Hack
    @AnonFromTN

    Not according to this description of the events surrounding the murders:


    On 2 April, law enforcement authorities announced in a press conference they had detained nine suspects in the 18–20 February shootings of Euromaidan activists, acting Prosecutor General of Ukraine Oleh Makhnytsky reported. Among the detainees was the leader of the sniper squad. All of the detained are officers of the Kiev City Berkut unit, and verified the involvement of the SBU's Alfa Group in the shootings. Officials also reported that they plan to detain additional suspects in the Maidan shootings in the near future, and stressed that the investigation is ongoing, but hindered by the outgoing regime's destruction of all documents and evidence. Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed that Viktor Yanukovych gave the order to fire on protesters on 20 February.[318][319] During the press conference, Ukraine's interior minister, chief prosecutor and top security chief implicated more than 30 Russian FSB agents in the crackdown on protesters, who in addition to taking part in the planning, flew large quantities of explosives into an airport near Kiev. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the interim head of Ukraine's SBU state security agency, said the agents were stationed in Kiev during the entire Euromaidan protests, were provided with "state telecommunications" while residing at an SBU compound, and in regular contact with Ukrainian security officials. "We have substantiated grounds to consider that these very groups which were located at an SBU training ground took part in the planning and execution of activities of this so-called antiterrorist operation," said Nalyvaichenko. Investigators, he said, had established that Yanukovych's SBU chief Oleksandr Yakymenko, who had fled the country, had received reports from FSB agents while they were stationed in Ukraine, and that Yakymenko held several briefings with the agents. Russia's Federal Security Bureau rejected the comments as "groundless accusations" and otherwise refused to comment.[320]

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AnonFromTN

    Here’s even more informaiton regarding Russian involvement during the last days of the Maidan, leading up to the murder of Kyivan protesters:

    On 20 February Minister of Internal Affairs Vitaliy Zakharchenko announced he had signed a decree to authorize the usage of live ammunition against protesters.[397] Same day to Boryspil unofficially arrived a Russian delegation of seven people including Vladislav Surkov, a curator of the “Ukrainian scenario” in Kremlin.[398] The delegation was greeted by the head of SBU department of counterintelligence Volodymyr Bik.[398] According to the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, one of the members FSB Colonel General Sergei Beseda arrived to Kyiv to make sure appropriate level of security of the Russian embassies[398] which was considered unlikely as nobody from the Russian embassy arrived to meet their compatriots.[398]According to Andrei Soldatov, the delegation visited Kyiv to ensure loyalty of Yanukovych.[399]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan

    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Mr. Hack

    Why don’t you quote CIA directly, quoting instead its shills at Wiki?

    , @Ano4
    @Mr. Hack


    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?
     
    I have connected the dots a while ago. See my comment about the oligarchs above...

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  133. @Mr. Hack
    @AnonFromTN

    Not according to this description of the events surrounding the murders:


    On 2 April, law enforcement authorities announced in a press conference they had detained nine suspects in the 18–20 February shootings of Euromaidan activists, acting Prosecutor General of Ukraine Oleh Makhnytsky reported. Among the detainees was the leader of the sniper squad. All of the detained are officers of the Kiev City Berkut unit, and verified the involvement of the SBU's Alfa Group in the shootings. Officials also reported that they plan to detain additional suspects in the Maidan shootings in the near future, and stressed that the investigation is ongoing, but hindered by the outgoing regime's destruction of all documents and evidence. Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed that Viktor Yanukovych gave the order to fire on protesters on 20 February.[318][319] During the press conference, Ukraine's interior minister, chief prosecutor and top security chief implicated more than 30 Russian FSB agents in the crackdown on protesters, who in addition to taking part in the planning, flew large quantities of explosives into an airport near Kiev. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the interim head of Ukraine's SBU state security agency, said the agents were stationed in Kiev during the entire Euromaidan protests, were provided with "state telecommunications" while residing at an SBU compound, and in regular contact with Ukrainian security officials. "We have substantiated grounds to consider that these very groups which were located at an SBU training ground took part in the planning and execution of activities of this so-called antiterrorist operation," said Nalyvaichenko. Investigators, he said, had established that Yanukovych's SBU chief Oleksandr Yakymenko, who had fled the country, had received reports from FSB agents while they were stationed in Ukraine, and that Yakymenko held several briefings with the agents. Russia's Federal Security Bureau rejected the comments as "groundless accusations" and otherwise refused to comment.[320]

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AnonFromTN

    Nalyvaichenko

    FYI, Nalyvaichenko was (and is) a known CIA asset. Goes to the credibility of his testimony.

    Surviving Georgian snipers told their story, scared by “accidental” deaths of their colleagues. Obviously, those who directed Maidan scenario subscribed to the wisdom that dead people tell no tales. The story told by snipers directly contradicts globohomo lies spread by the US, it’s vassals, and puppets (including Kiev puppets).

    • Agree: Ano4, AltanBakshi, Jazman
    • Replies: @AP
    @AnonFromTN

    Stopfake tells a different story about alleged Georgian snipers:

    https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-georgian-snipers-shot-maidan-demonstrators/



    Micalessin’s film is based on the “sensational admission by three Georgian mercenaries” – Alexander Revazishvili, Koba Nergadze and Zalogi Kvarateskelia, who Micalessin claims were sent by former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to participate in Ukrainian opposition activities. (The Maidan shootings took place in February 2014, Mikheil Saakashvili’s presidential term ended in November 2013. Ed)

    Koba Nergadze claims he was recruited into Saakashvili’s United National Movement, as proof he shows a party membership card filled with spelling mistakes, bearing the name of a nonexistent organization, the “Security service of defence”. All three of the alleged Georgian snipers talk about their American curator Brian Christopher Boyenger and claim their actions were coordinated by Mamuka Mamulashvili, a Saakashvili associate.

    https://www.stopfake.org/content/uploads/2017/11/08.png

    https://www.stopfake.org/content/uploads/2017/11/09.png

    Micalessin uses video footage of a press conference featuring Mamulashvili and Brian Boyenger as implied proof of their participation in the shootings. He does not mention that the press conference took place on February 24, 2016 and was devoted to the Georgian National Legion and its role in the war in eastern Ukraine. Mamulashvili , the Legion commander says that he was not in Ukraine during the Maidan revolution. Boyenger said he was previously in Ukraine in 2015 to train volunteers.

    The Georgian Legion has dismissed Micalessin’s film as an attempt to discredit the Legion and Mamulashvili.

    The film is filled with inaccuracies in the timeline of the shootings that took place on February 20, 2014. It features a video uploaded to YouTube by Konstantin Piontkovsky filmed shortly after the killing of Maidan activist Volodymyr Melnychuk. Someone is heard asking, where were they shooting from, from the Ukraina hotel, someone answers. Security camera footage showed that Melnychuk was killed by fire from the Ukrainian National Bank building.

    The Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office expressed surprise that Micalessin did not contact any Ukrainian officials for his film. According to the offices’s Special Investigations Department chief Serhiy Horbatiuk, the men named in the video were never in Ukraine. Their claims that they were shooting at both sides, the police and at demonstrators, are inaccurate and contradict all investigations and existing eyewitness testimony, Horbatiuk said.

    One of the Georgian snipers says they did not get direct orders to fire on anyone, another says such orders were issued, one says they stayed in a hotel in a southwestern area of Kyiv, another says they were based in a hotel on the Maidan. Two of the alleged snipers speak Georgian, the third speaks flawless Russian without any hint of a Georgian accent.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  134. @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    Here's even more informaiton regarding Russian involvement during the last days of the Maidan, leading up to the murder of Kyivan protesters:


    On 20 February Minister of Internal Affairs Vitaliy Zakharchenko announced he had signed a decree to authorize the usage of live ammunition against protesters.[397] Same day to Boryspil unofficially arrived a Russian delegation of seven people including Vladislav Surkov, a curator of the "Ukrainian scenario" in Kremlin.[398] The delegation was greeted by the head of SBU department of counterintelligence Volodymyr Bik.[398] According to the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, one of the members FSB Colonel General Sergei Beseda arrived to Kyiv to make sure appropriate level of security of the Russian embassies[398] which was considered unlikely as nobody from the Russian embassy arrived to meet their compatriots.[398]According to Andrei Soldatov, the delegation visited Kyiv to ensure loyalty of Yanukovych.[399]
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan

    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Ano4

    Why don’t you quote CIA directly, quoting instead its shills at Wiki?

  135. @AnonFromTN
    @Mr. Hack


    Nalyvaichenko
     
    FYI, Nalyvaichenko was (and is) a known CIA asset. Goes to the credibility of his testimony.

    Surviving Georgian snipers told their story, scared by “accidental” deaths of their colleagues. Obviously, those who directed Maidan scenario subscribed to the wisdom that dead people tell no tales. The story told by snipers directly contradicts globohomo lies spread by the US, it’s vassals, and puppets (including Kiev puppets).

    Replies: @AP

    Stopfake tells a different story about alleged Georgian snipers:

    https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-georgian-snipers-shot-maidan-demonstrators/

    [MORE]

    Micalessin’s film is based on the “sensational admission by three Georgian mercenaries” – Alexander Revazishvili, Koba Nergadze and Zalogi Kvarateskelia, who Micalessin claims were sent by former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to participate in Ukrainian opposition activities. (The Maidan shootings took place in February 2014, Mikheil Saakashvili’s presidential term ended in November 2013. Ed)

    Koba Nergadze claims he was recruited into Saakashvili’s United National Movement, as proof he shows a party membership card filled with spelling mistakes, bearing the name of a nonexistent organization, the “Security service of defence”. All three of the alleged Georgian snipers talk about their American curator Brian Christopher Boyenger and claim their actions were coordinated by Mamuka Mamulashvili, a Saakashvili associate.

    Micalessin uses video footage of a press conference featuring Mamulashvili and Brian Boyenger as implied proof of their participation in the shootings. He does not mention that the press conference took place on February 24, 2016 and was devoted to the Georgian National Legion and its role in the war in eastern Ukraine. Mamulashvili , the Legion commander says that he was not in Ukraine during the Maidan revolution. Boyenger said he was previously in Ukraine in 2015 to train volunteers.

    The Georgian Legion has dismissed Micalessin’s film as an attempt to discredit the Legion and Mamulashvili.

    The film is filled with inaccuracies in the timeline of the shootings that took place on February 20, 2014. It features a video uploaded to YouTube by Konstantin Piontkovsky filmed shortly after the killing of Maidan activist Volodymyr Melnychuk. Someone is heard asking, where were they shooting from, from the Ukraina hotel, someone answers. Security camera footage showed that Melnychuk was killed by fire from the Ukrainian National Bank building.

    The Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office expressed surprise that Micalessin did not contact any Ukrainian officials for his film. According to the offices’s Special Investigations Department chief Serhiy Horbatiuk, the men named in the video were never in Ukraine. Their claims that they were shooting at both sides, the police and at demonstrators, are inaccurate and contradict all investigations and existing eyewitness testimony, Horbatiuk said.

    One of the Georgian snipers says they did not get direct orders to fire on anyone, another says such orders were issued, one says they stayed in a hotel in a southwestern area of Kyiv, another says they were based in a hotel on the Maidan. Two of the alleged snipers speak Georgian, the third speaks flawless Russian without any hint of a Georgian accent.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @AP


    Stopfake tells a different story about alleged Georgian snipers:
     
    No wonder. Stopfake is a well-known fake producer.
  136. @AP
    @Mikel


    Full-on military solution. While they called it an “ATO”, they actually used all the military might at their disposal, including air raids, tanks, tactical missiles and high-caliber artillery.
     
    And yet, rather small number of civilian casualties. Looks like they weren't trying to create mass death.

    This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead
     
    13,000 to 13,200 total dead according to UN (see link below).

    About 10,000 soldiers were killed in 6 years of warfare (though most deaths occurred in the first two years). If this was a "bloodath" what would you call an actual war? Was Chechnya a cosmic apocalypse in your terminology?


    (almost 4,000 of them civilians)
     
    Your dishonesty is on display again.

    UN report, page 7:

    https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/29thReportUkraine_EN.pdf

    During the entire conflict period, from 14 April 2014 to 15 February 2020, OHCHR recorded in total 3,052 conflict-related civilian deaths (1,812 men, 1,056 women, 98 boys, 49 girls and 37 adults whose sex is unknown).

    Another 298 were killed in the Malaysian plane that was accidentally shot down by rebels.


    They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can’t help but admit.
     
    Your implication that I would cover something up is dishonest, also. But it's who you are, you can't help it.

    Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels,
     
    Rebels are holed up in densely populated areas, Ukrainians are not (or are, to a much lesser extent).

    Here is the front line. Notice the large cities on the rebel side that are right on the front:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg/300px-Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg.png

    The Ukrainian government managed to keep clear a buffer zone separating its largest held city, Mariupol, from the front. Rebels haven't done so, they have densely populated cities right on the front line.

    When the two sides exchange artillery fire more civilians on the rebel side are bound to get hit, unfortunately.

    Replies: @Mikel

    No, I didn’t say that you were “covering up” anything. What happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas and, as so often in the past, you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it, you couldn’t avoid making contradictory statements.

    At the beginning I thought that this knee-jerk reaction of yours whenever I mentioned the disastrous Ukrainian decision of confronting the Donbas rebellion with a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars was due to your being a Ukrainian nationalist. But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it’s all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.

    It is well known that insulting unknown people on the internet and abusing prescription drugs are the two major addictions of the moment. I hope that you only indulge in the former.

    PS- Based on the OHCHR pdf, the figure of 3,000 civilian deaths looks closer to reality than the 4,000 that I used. I’m not sure if I used it based on some news article that I read or perhaps I remembered that in previous years the OHCHR declared that their figure was likely not complete and didn’t include hundreds of missing persons. Of course this changes nothing about my original comment #96, as any non-perturbed person would be able to understand.

    PPS- I don’t think that the size of the cities occupied by each combatant has much relationship with who causes more civilian casualties nowadays. Lately most of them have been occurring in small settlements close to the fronts. But the Ukrainian army is composed of far-right battalion volunteers (especially active on the front) and conscripts from the whole country (many of them from the West). It’s by no means implausible that on average they have more disregard for “Moskali” civilian lives than the rebels, most of whom are local Donbas people.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Mikel

    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people. I lived intermittently in Saratov at the time and significant numbers of people, for example a minibus full of 15 "Cossacks" (13 came back) from Balakovo were reported in the media as going to the Donbass. The local media sent a reporter to interview two complete companies fighting near Gorlivka. There were so many volunteers that only people with recent military experience were accepted. Pay varied. $1000 a dead Ukrainian (Motorola's lot), $300 for battle days or Girkin's $300 a month. The Cossacks appeared to do it for keep and glory. There were Cossacks on both sides of course.

    Then there was my night on the train with the tank fitter from the Russian army. He couldn't wait to tell me about his summer of extended leave. He spent it earning $$$ at a tank maintenance school in Rostov. Not to mention Girkin's own account on VK.con. He complained that only 70 locals turned up to join him and all were over 40 and unemployed. Until he started paying Russians he had very few men. The Cossacks greatly outnumbered him at Slavyansk. Even so, they were enough to start the mischief.

    Replies: @Mikel, @AnonFromTN

    , @AP
    @Mikel


    what happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas
     
    You claimed that Ukraine went "for a bloodbath" and lied about the number of civilians killed.

    you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it,
     
    I proved your claim was false and provided a link, forcing you to acknowledge this.

    a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars
     
    There you go again, with your dishonesty. Second Chechen war occurred after the Balkan wars and had 25,000 civilian casualties - over 7 times more than in Donbas, with a smaller population. (first Chechen war was even bloodier but that was earlier).

    But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it’s all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.
     
    All because I correctly identified your pattern of dishonesty. Правда глаза колет.

    It is well known that insulting unknown people
     
    I correctly described you. In the past I provided friendly advice to you - be honest, and you won't be described as dishonest. You have failed to follow this advice. Well, it's hard to change a fundamental part of your nature.

    I have had various debates and disagreements with people such as Dmitri who are not dishonest and have not called them such.
  137. the third speaks flawless Russian without any hint of a Georgian accent

    .

    Like Saakashvili?

    A lot of Gruzins born in Soviet times speak a flawless Russian without any noticable accent…

    On July 3rd Zaborona, a Ukrainian online media outlet, published a long read discussing alleged friendly ties between Ukraine’s far-right and neo-Nazi groups and the leaders of StopFake.org, a non-profit fact-checking organisation exposing cases of false information and propaganda about events in Ukraine.

    https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/03/zaborona-vs-stopfake-what-is-hiding-behind-ukraines-ongoing-media-conflict/

    Not sure whether they really qualify as a valid fact-checking agency.

    • Replies: @Ano4
    @Ano4

    This was a reply to comment #135 by AP. The connection between the comments got interrupted somehow.

  138. @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    Here's even more informaiton regarding Russian involvement during the last days of the Maidan, leading up to the murder of Kyivan protesters:


    On 20 February Minister of Internal Affairs Vitaliy Zakharchenko announced he had signed a decree to authorize the usage of live ammunition against protesters.[397] Same day to Boryspil unofficially arrived a Russian delegation of seven people including Vladislav Surkov, a curator of the "Ukrainian scenario" in Kremlin.[398] The delegation was greeted by the head of SBU department of counterintelligence Volodymyr Bik.[398] According to the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, one of the members FSB Colonel General Sergei Beseda arrived to Kyiv to make sure appropriate level of security of the Russian embassies[398] which was considered unlikely as nobody from the Russian embassy arrived to meet their compatriots.[398]According to Andrei Soldatov, the delegation visited Kyiv to ensure loyalty of Yanukovych.[399]
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan

    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Ano4

    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?

    I have connected the dots a while ago. See my comment about the oligarchs above…

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Ano4

    You mean you really believe that Yanukovych (or his son) couldn't be capable of giving the orders to use lethal force to still the belligerent protesters? Things were going from bad to worse every day, and the crowds were standing on the cold and hungry streets for what, 4 months already? Some were already dead before that fateful day of February 18. To me, it looks like Yanukovych had reached his last straw, and it makes perfect sense, knowing his thuggish and megalomaniac character, that he, or somebody very close to him would give such an order. I don't see any reason at all to put any stock into any flimsy and unsubstantiated claims of a Kochanovsky, to believe in any weird and complicated conspiracy theories, black ops or false flag operations.

    Who had the most to gain if the quelling of a couple of hundred demonstrators had worked and sent the majority of the demonstrators back to the comforts of their homes? If they had, Yanukovych would still be hanging around today robbing his country blind.

  139. @Ano4

    the third speaks flawless Russian without any hint of a Georgian accent
     
    .

    Like Saakashvili?

    A lot of Gruzins born in Soviet times speak a flawless Russian without any noticable accent...

    On July 3rd Zaborona, a Ukrainian online media outlet, published a long read discussing alleged friendly ties between Ukraine’s far-right and neo-Nazi groups and the leaders of StopFake.org, a non-profit fact-checking organisation exposing cases of false information and propaganda about events in Ukraine.
     
    https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/03/zaborona-vs-stopfake-what-is-hiding-behind-ukraines-ongoing-media-conflict/

    Not sure whether they really qualify as a valid fact-checking agency.

    Replies: @Ano4

    This was a reply to comment #135 by AP. The connection between the comments got interrupted somehow.

  140. @AP
    @AnonFromTN

    Stopfake tells a different story about alleged Georgian snipers:

    https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-georgian-snipers-shot-maidan-demonstrators/



    Micalessin’s film is based on the “sensational admission by three Georgian mercenaries” – Alexander Revazishvili, Koba Nergadze and Zalogi Kvarateskelia, who Micalessin claims were sent by former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to participate in Ukrainian opposition activities. (The Maidan shootings took place in February 2014, Mikheil Saakashvili’s presidential term ended in November 2013. Ed)

    Koba Nergadze claims he was recruited into Saakashvili’s United National Movement, as proof he shows a party membership card filled with spelling mistakes, bearing the name of a nonexistent organization, the “Security service of defence”. All three of the alleged Georgian snipers talk about their American curator Brian Christopher Boyenger and claim their actions were coordinated by Mamuka Mamulashvili, a Saakashvili associate.

    https://www.stopfake.org/content/uploads/2017/11/08.png

    https://www.stopfake.org/content/uploads/2017/11/09.png

    Micalessin uses video footage of a press conference featuring Mamulashvili and Brian Boyenger as implied proof of their participation in the shootings. He does not mention that the press conference took place on February 24, 2016 and was devoted to the Georgian National Legion and its role in the war in eastern Ukraine. Mamulashvili , the Legion commander says that he was not in Ukraine during the Maidan revolution. Boyenger said he was previously in Ukraine in 2015 to train volunteers.

    The Georgian Legion has dismissed Micalessin’s film as an attempt to discredit the Legion and Mamulashvili.

    The film is filled with inaccuracies in the timeline of the shootings that took place on February 20, 2014. It features a video uploaded to YouTube by Konstantin Piontkovsky filmed shortly after the killing of Maidan activist Volodymyr Melnychuk. Someone is heard asking, where were they shooting from, from the Ukraina hotel, someone answers. Security camera footage showed that Melnychuk was killed by fire from the Ukrainian National Bank building.

    The Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office expressed surprise that Micalessin did not contact any Ukrainian officials for his film. According to the offices’s Special Investigations Department chief Serhiy Horbatiuk, the men named in the video were never in Ukraine. Their claims that they were shooting at both sides, the police and at demonstrators, are inaccurate and contradict all investigations and existing eyewitness testimony, Horbatiuk said.

    One of the Georgian snipers says they did not get direct orders to fire on anyone, another says such orders were issued, one says they stayed in a hotel in a southwestern area of Kyiv, another says they were based in a hotel on the Maidan. Two of the alleged snipers speak Georgian, the third speaks flawless Russian without any hint of a Georgian accent.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    Stopfake tells a different story about alleged Georgian snipers:

    No wonder. Stopfake is a well-known fake producer.

  141. @Ano4
    @Mr. Hack


    Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?
     
    I have connected the dots a while ago. See my comment about the oligarchs above...

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    You mean you really believe that Yanukovych (or his son) couldn’t be capable of giving the orders to use lethal force to still the belligerent protesters? Things were going from bad to worse every day, and the crowds were standing on the cold and hungry streets for what, 4 months already? Some were already dead before that fateful day of February 18. To me, it looks like Yanukovych had reached his last straw, and it makes perfect sense, knowing his thuggish and megalomaniac character, that he, or somebody very close to him would give such an order. I don’t see any reason at all to put any stock into any flimsy and unsubstantiated claims of a Kochanovsky, to believe in any weird and complicated conspiracy theories, black ops or false flag operations.

    Who had the most to gain if the quelling of a couple of hundred demonstrators had worked and sent the majority of the demonstrators back to the comforts of their homes? If they had, Yanukovych would still be hanging around today robbing his country blind.

  142. Protests still going strong.

    • Replies: @Simpleguest
    @utu


    Protests still going strong.
     
    So what.
    In Spain (Catalonia), in Britain (anti Brexit), not to mention France, we saw much bigger protests to no effect.

    I don't think the majority is against Lukashenko and I definitelly don't think the majority is against closer ties with Russia. And the most important thing in democracies is to respect the vote of the majority, isn't it so?

    As for Viachorka "We are witnessing the convulsions of the Soviet Union." LOL.

    On the contrary, the mood of the epoch is changing.
    A powerfull realisation is brewing that a terrible error has been commited which needs to be rectified, and it will be.

  143. I just can not grasp how can people still cling to 2014 Maidan propaganda with all the info which is available now.

    Even back then it was obvious that it was not peaceful protestors vs. gov police thugs.

    For example one moron fell from the colonnade which he climbed to throw Molotov cocktails from, there were also photos of Maidan-nuts setting themselves afire with their own petrol bombs. Darwin award & Karam in one – congratulations.

    As for the shooters. Apparently there were a number of them with various affiliations including terrorist – provocateurs among the Maidan-nuts themselves. For example a certain Iwan Bubenczyk (this is how his name was spelled in Polish media) and some others who even bragged about it.

    While Yanuk was a SOB and a WD at the same time this does not somehow negate the dirty side of Maidan and denying it is living in alternative reality.

    • Agree: Ano4, AnonFromTN, Mitleser
  144. @AnonFromTN
    @Mr. Hack


    that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.
     
    That’s a lie spread by those who used the same scenario with snipers in Sarajevo, then in Deraa, then in Kiev. Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there. But Dr. Goebbels was right: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Gerard-Mandela

    Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there

    Many of them were there( as in the 4 months that Maidan was on) …and died of heart attack or a car crash completely unrelated to the shootings.

    Other things missed are that Yanukovich when he was impeached had “fled” the country….to Kharkov ( or was it Crimea?). Both him and Azarov say that their cars or wives cars were shot at

  145. @utu
    Protests still going strong.

    https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1298338782589190144

    Replies: @Simpleguest

    Protests still going strong.

    So what.
    In Spain (Catalonia), in Britain (anti Brexit), not to mention France, we saw much bigger protests to no effect.

    I don’t think the majority is against Lukashenko and I definitelly don’t think the majority is against closer ties with Russia. And the most important thing in democracies is to respect the vote of the majority, isn’t it so?

    As for Viachorka “We are witnessing the convulsions of the Soviet Union.” LOL.

    On the contrary, the mood of the epoch is changing.
    A powerfull realisation is brewing that a terrible error has been commited which needs to be rectified, and it will be.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi, Aedib
  146. @Philip Owen
    @Korenchkin

    I speak as a participant and first hand observer on the ground. I had to let my Russian employees go three years ago. They are still looking for (senior level) work. One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.

    You?

    Replies: @Dreadilk, @Korenchkin, @Gerard-Mandela

    One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.

    Phil, you are obviously not that smart ( or pretending). It’s ridiculous to propagate the idea that a person running $150million projects would not be able to get a job in three years…particularly when the construction industry in Russia is going quite well despite the drivel in your posts.

    “Broken under sanctions” is again cretinous drivel. I suppose it could be subjective in that 4% growth for China and India is a disaster, but great for most other countries….but unless you tell me what numbers you consider as “broken under sanctions”, or what side effects ( crime, failing infrastructure, health etc) then I can’t take seriously nonsense like that when Russia’s GDP growth has been at the same level, or even better than Germany,UK, Italy, France and nearly all EU countries.

    FDI is low – but not for meritocratic reasons – every measure shows that the investment climate has improved

    Credit market for individuals and businesses is gigantically different now compared to before 2014 – far more loans , much larger amounts and at much lower interest rate ( still some distance between rate now compared to western rates but going in correct direction) now than 6 years ago. If you had asked anybody in 2013 if this was a possibility in Russia then everybody would be thinking probably not….or that the whole market would collapse because us Russians would not regularly follow our payments. Which of the major companies had bad results last year?Not many

    Banderastan economy is a disaster…..I would add that Crimea growth last year was about 5.5%

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Gerard-Mandela

    She did a major shopping centre in Sochi and one in Saratov and a major busines centre from finding the base tenants to overseeing the construction. No one has been launching retail and commercial projects in Russia since 2014. I was offered a chance to take on the sale of Aviapark in Moscow. This is way outside my league and specialties. That it came my way is an illustration of desperation.

    Right now I am in discussion about modernising a river port on the Volga. A grain port no less. It should be flying out of the window. Three years trying the usual channels have left them a bit desperate. Long term credit is scarce, expensive (albeit coming down - bank rates now about 4.24%) and requires 120% or more collateral. Equity investment is even scarcer. Government money comes with strings attached that most Russian entrepreneurs don't want near them. Anyway, government funding is never for the whole package. It suits Soviet leftovers in manufacturing. The Chinese were wrongfooted by over rewarding Yakunin and are now staying out. Every single Indian firm I know of has been more than naive. (All state owned so I suppose expected).

    Russia is in fact very very cheap for foreign investors with very high returns but Putin's adventurism has pushed the political risk profile so high that it puts everyone off (and locking up the biggest foreign investor on charges that would not be criminal in any other country doesn't help). For a straightforward industrial or commercial investment the risks are actually low but that is not the perception.

    You would think import substitution might be working well by now. I give you the SSJ100. So far as I can tell, all the planes sold to foreign buyers have been returned. The maintenance costs soared once the newness wore off. As much as anything it was a management failure with the spares supply chain (but that is a Russian meme). There have also been 4 hull losses from a fleet of 130. Bring back the YAK42.

    Not just tech. There was a wave of pig farm building 5 or 6 years ago. The biggest firms are coping. With the middle sized firms, the equipment needs maintenance that it isn't getting. The pigs have long been fed a bit too much barley and not quite enough soya with some skimping on the supplements. So yields are way below what they could be. Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.

    Replies: @Simpleguest

  147. @Mikel
    @AP

    No, I didn't say that you were "covering up" anything. What happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas and, as so often in the past, you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it, you couldn't avoid making contradictory statements.

    At the beginning I thought that this knee-jerk reaction of yours whenever I mentioned the disastrous Ukrainian decision of confronting the Donbas rebellion with a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars was due to your being a Ukrainian nationalist. But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it's all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.

    It is well known that insulting unknown people on the internet and abusing prescription drugs are the two major addictions of the moment. I hope that you only indulge in the former.

    PS- Based on the OHCHR pdf, the figure of 3,000 civilian deaths looks closer to reality than the 4,000 that I used. I'm not sure if I used it based on some news article that I read or perhaps I remembered that in previous years the OHCHR declared that their figure was likely not complete and didn't include hundreds of missing persons. Of course this changes nothing about my original comment #96, as any non-perturbed person would be able to understand.

    PPS- I don't think that the size of the cities occupied by each combatant has much relationship with who causes more civilian casualties nowadays. Lately most of them have been occurring in small settlements close to the fronts. But the Ukrainian army is composed of far-right battalion volunteers (especially active on the front) and conscripts from the whole country (many of them from the West). It's by no means implausible that on average they have more disregard for "Moskali" civilian lives than the rebels, most of whom are local Donbas people.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @AP

    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people. I lived intermittently in Saratov at the time and significant numbers of people, for example a minibus full of 15 “Cossacks” (13 came back) from Balakovo were reported in the media as going to the Donbass. The local media sent a reporter to interview two complete companies fighting near Gorlivka. There were so many volunteers that only people with recent military experience were accepted. Pay varied. $1000 a dead Ukrainian (Motorola’s lot), $300 for battle days or Girkin’s $300 a month. The Cossacks appeared to do it for keep and glory. There were Cossacks on both sides of course.

    Then there was my night on the train with the tank fitter from the Russian army. He couldn’t wait to tell me about his summer of extended leave. He spent it earning $$$ at a tank maintenance school in Rostov. Not to mention Girkin’s own account on VK.con. He complained that only 70 locals turned up to join him and all were over 40 and unemployed. Until he started paying Russians he had very few men. The Cossacks greatly outnumbered him at Slavyansk. Even so, they were enough to start the mischief.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people.
     
    I respect your personal experiences but they're hardly solid proof for your emphatic assertion. In fact, both the former President and Internal Affairs minister of Ukraine would rather disagree with you:


    In May 2014, then Ukrainian president Oleksandr Turchynov stated that numerous Ukrainian military and security personnel had joined the separatists, alongside stolen Ukrainian military equipment.[540] In October 2014, Internal Affairs minister Arsen Avakov told journalists that about 15,000 Ukrainian policemen in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts had defected to the separatists.[541]
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Police_and_military_defectors_and_deserters

    That most rebel militants in Donbas are local people has been recognized by almost everybody, including the Kyiv Post and the BCC. Wikipedia states the following:


    As of February 2018, the number of separatist forces were estimated at around 31,000 out of which 80% (25,000) were Donbass residents
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Combatants

    And every time there has been an exchange of prisoners almost everybody on both sides are Ukrainian citizens.

    Perhaps a majority of the combatants at the beginning came from Russia, I don't know. But the huge crowds of people taking part in the separatist referendum and the numerous civilians putting their bodies in front of the Ukrainian tanks were definitely locals.

    If the Welsh ethnic majority of a small English region adjoining Wales, say in Herefordshire, were to organize a rebellion against an anti-Celtic London government, I would also expect many volunteers from mainland Wales to go and join their co-ethnics but this does not necessarily mean that the rebellious feelings of the locals were not genuine.

    In any case, it doesn't make any difference to me that Donbas joins Russia or remains in Ukraine. As long as the wishes of the majority are taken into account, I'm fine with any arrangement.

    My biggest problem with this whole situation has always been that Ukraine chose to use a purely military solution to a real political problem in a region full of people with divided loyalties and pressed on it and doubled-down even when they realized that their solution would inevitably cost many innocent lives of their own countrymen.

    The British have fortunately shown a much more civilized approach in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If they ever resorted to bombing civilian areas and killing thousands of innocent people for the greater good of the Kingdom, I'd have the same feelings.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen

    Girkin (nom de guerre Strelkov) came to Slavyansk with 52 men. When he left Slavyansk, his group counted more than a thousand fighters. The difference was locals who joined voluntarily.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  148. @Gerard-Mandela
    @Philip Owen


    One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.
     
    Phil, you are obviously not that smart ( or pretending). It's ridiculous to propagate the idea that a person running $150million projects would not be able to get a job in three years...particularly when the construction industry in Russia is going quite well despite the drivel in your posts.

    "Broken under sanctions" is again cretinous drivel. I suppose it could be subjective in that 4% growth for China and India is a disaster, but great for most other countries....but unless you tell me what numbers you consider as "broken under sanctions", or what side effects ( crime, failing infrastructure, health etc) then I can't take seriously nonsense like that when Russia's GDP growth has been at the same level, or even better than Germany,UK, Italy, France and nearly all EU countries.

    FDI is low - but not for meritocratic reasons - every measure shows that the investment climate has improved

    Credit market for individuals and businesses is gigantically different now compared to before 2014 - far more loans , much larger amounts and at much lower interest rate ( still some distance between rate now compared to western rates but going in correct direction) now than 6 years ago. If you had asked anybody in 2013 if this was a possibility in Russia then everybody would be thinking probably not....or that the whole market would collapse because us Russians would not regularly follow our payments. Which of the major companies had bad results last year?Not many

    Banderastan economy is a disaster.....I would add that Crimea growth last year was about 5.5%

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    She did a major shopping centre in Sochi and one in Saratov and a major busines centre from finding the base tenants to overseeing the construction. No one has been launching retail and commercial projects in Russia since 2014. I was offered a chance to take on the sale of Aviapark in Moscow. This is way outside my league and specialties. That it came my way is an illustration of desperation.

    Right now I am in discussion about modernising a river port on the Volga. A grain port no less. It should be flying out of the window. Three years trying the usual channels have left them a bit desperate. Long term credit is scarce, expensive (albeit coming down – bank rates now about 4.24%) and requires 120% or more collateral. Equity investment is even scarcer. Government money comes with strings attached that most Russian entrepreneurs don’t want near them. Anyway, government funding is never for the whole package. It suits Soviet leftovers in manufacturing. The Chinese were wrongfooted by over rewarding Yakunin and are now staying out. Every single Indian firm I know of has been more than naive. (All state owned so I suppose expected).

    Russia is in fact very very cheap for foreign investors with very high returns but Putin’s adventurism has pushed the political risk profile so high that it puts everyone off (and locking up the biggest foreign investor on charges that would not be criminal in any other country doesn’t help). For a straightforward industrial or commercial investment the risks are actually low but that is not the perception.

    You would think import substitution might be working well by now. I give you the SSJ100. So far as I can tell, all the planes sold to foreign buyers have been returned. The maintenance costs soared once the newness wore off. As much as anything it was a management failure with the spares supply chain (but that is a Russian meme). There have also been 4 hull losses from a fleet of 130. Bring back the YAK42.

    Not just tech. There was a wave of pig farm building 5 or 6 years ago. The biggest firms are coping. With the middle sized firms, the equipment needs maintenance that it isn’t getting. The pigs have long been fed a bit too much barley and not quite enough soya with some skimping on the supplements. So yields are way below what they could be. Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.

    • Replies: @Simpleguest
    @Philip Owen

    Impressive. Quite a knowledgeable fellow you are.
    From river ports to pig farms, you seem to have done your job well.
    But do explain this statement a bit more:


    Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.
     
    I see contradictions here.

    As far as SSJ100 is concerned, I could accept that spare parts could be an issue, based on Russian sterotypes. All foreign customers returning planes requires links and a bit more details.

    As far as hull losses are concerned, 2 were lost due to pilot blunders (Indonesia customer's demostration flight and Island plane systems testing). A third accident occured also possibly due to pilot error, the Moscow accident.
    That leaves 1 plane lost due to equipment malfunction, fortunatelly without any casulties.
    And here is one very good example of "whataboutery": what about Boeing 737 Max?

    Give Russians some slack and time. The last time they were authentic, industrious and mercantilistic on par with the British was probably during the time of Ivan the Terrible.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  149. What should happen in Belarus? Not what you think is going to happen but what shoud happen?

    I take it as read that Lukashenko falsified the results. I don’t take it as read that he necessarily lost, especailly as the leader during the SARS2 crisis.

    So, In my view there should be a rerun. That can’t happen without some face saving on bath sides, particularly Lukasheno’s. Whoever steps in to save faces can’t be the EU or Russia or even both of them because it will degenerate into Russia pushing “sphere of influence” levels of interference. Some retired politican from Turkey or Egypt or India should be the go between. As L has suggested, tweak the constitution a bit to justify a new election. He might even win.

    Lukashenko needs to be offered an honourable escape route if he loses. In the UK, the post of Master of an Oxbridge college is usually quite attractive enough to keep former security and political risks quiet. Give him an honorary University post, even some teaching and an uncontroversial spot on tv, less political than the Alex Salmond show. Pig Farming for Experts perhaps. Also of course a large country mansion in Belarus (close to the Russian border?). Guards of his own choosing for life.

  150. @Philip Owen
    @Gerard-Mandela

    She did a major shopping centre in Sochi and one in Saratov and a major busines centre from finding the base tenants to overseeing the construction. No one has been launching retail and commercial projects in Russia since 2014. I was offered a chance to take on the sale of Aviapark in Moscow. This is way outside my league and specialties. That it came my way is an illustration of desperation.

    Right now I am in discussion about modernising a river port on the Volga. A grain port no less. It should be flying out of the window. Three years trying the usual channels have left them a bit desperate. Long term credit is scarce, expensive (albeit coming down - bank rates now about 4.24%) and requires 120% or more collateral. Equity investment is even scarcer. Government money comes with strings attached that most Russian entrepreneurs don't want near them. Anyway, government funding is never for the whole package. It suits Soviet leftovers in manufacturing. The Chinese were wrongfooted by over rewarding Yakunin and are now staying out. Every single Indian firm I know of has been more than naive. (All state owned so I suppose expected).

    Russia is in fact very very cheap for foreign investors with very high returns but Putin's adventurism has pushed the political risk profile so high that it puts everyone off (and locking up the biggest foreign investor on charges that would not be criminal in any other country doesn't help). For a straightforward industrial or commercial investment the risks are actually low but that is not the perception.

    You would think import substitution might be working well by now. I give you the SSJ100. So far as I can tell, all the planes sold to foreign buyers have been returned. The maintenance costs soared once the newness wore off. As much as anything it was a management failure with the spares supply chain (but that is a Russian meme). There have also been 4 hull losses from a fleet of 130. Bring back the YAK42.

    Not just tech. There was a wave of pig farm building 5 or 6 years ago. The biggest firms are coping. With the middle sized firms, the equipment needs maintenance that it isn't getting. The pigs have long been fed a bit too much barley and not quite enough soya with some skimping on the supplements. So yields are way below what they could be. Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.

    Replies: @Simpleguest

    Impressive. Quite a knowledgeable fellow you are.
    From river ports to pig farms, you seem to have done your job well.
    But do explain this statement a bit more:

    Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.

    I see contradictions here.

    As far as SSJ100 is concerned, I could accept that spare parts could be an issue, based on Russian sterotypes. All foreign customers returning planes requires links and a bit more details.

    As far as hull losses are concerned, 2 were lost due to pilot blunders (Indonesia customer’s demostration flight and Island plane systems testing). A third accident occured also possibly due to pilot error, the Moscow accident.
    That leaves 1 plane lost due to equipment malfunction, fortunatelly without any casulties.
    And here is one very good example of “whataboutery”: what about Boeing 737 Max?

    Give Russians some slack and time. The last time they were authentic, industrious and mercantilistic on par with the British was probably during the time of Ivan the Terrible.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Simpleguest

    Russia produced only 60% of its pork needs. So the government encouraged investment in pork farms. Very large investments in modern pork production came on stream. Production now met about 80% of demand. Then the rouble collapsed. The price for pork in international so in rouble terms, the price of pork rose dramatically. Consumption fell. With the fall in consumption, Russia could supply its own needs for pork.

    There were additional factors, African Swine Fever destroyed a lot of traditional small farm production in Russia. Then it reached China. A huge proportion of the Chinese swine herd has been destroyed. As a result, pork prices remain high. Demand remains low. Current production meets demand and quality (low fat) is not required to compete. Only this year has China approved Russian pork and chicken as fit for export to China. Partly, of course, there is almost no infrastruture in place for transporting bulk and frozen goods to China. It's less than two years since grain trains made it through. It's less than 5 years since coal could be shipped by rail. Chinese goods coming the other way are higher added value and can bear higher transport costs.

    Additionally countersanction bans on import of EU, US and Canadian pork made sure that prices in Russia were a little higher than the international price, set in Chicago as there was less competition. Similar things have been happening in other forms of protein production with adjustments to reflect the experience.

    There has been a considerable investment in dairy production. The Russian government gave early priority to foreign dairy brands investing mostly for export. So Indian, Thai, Saudi, German, Vietnamese even Chinese firms have had their giant farms and dairy parlours paid for so long as they provided the marketing expertise to drive exports. Thus Russia has compensated for losing European cheese supply. Palm oil sales are finally dropping. More recently local firms have also been subsidized to set up dairy operations up to and including ice cream. Russia now exports ice cream (mostly to Ukraine).

  151. @Philip Owen
    @Mikel

    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people. I lived intermittently in Saratov at the time and significant numbers of people, for example a minibus full of 15 "Cossacks" (13 came back) from Balakovo were reported in the media as going to the Donbass. The local media sent a reporter to interview two complete companies fighting near Gorlivka. There were so many volunteers that only people with recent military experience were accepted. Pay varied. $1000 a dead Ukrainian (Motorola's lot), $300 for battle days or Girkin's $300 a month. The Cossacks appeared to do it for keep and glory. There were Cossacks on both sides of course.

    Then there was my night on the train with the tank fitter from the Russian army. He couldn't wait to tell me about his summer of extended leave. He spent it earning $$$ at a tank maintenance school in Rostov. Not to mention Girkin's own account on VK.con. He complained that only 70 locals turned up to join him and all were over 40 and unemployed. Until he started paying Russians he had very few men. The Cossacks greatly outnumbered him at Slavyansk. Even so, they were enough to start the mischief.

    Replies: @Mikel, @AnonFromTN

    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people.

    I respect your personal experiences but they’re hardly solid proof for your emphatic assertion. In fact, both the former President and Internal Affairs minister of Ukraine would rather disagree with you:

    In May 2014, then Ukrainian president Oleksandr Turchynov stated that numerous Ukrainian military and security personnel had joined the separatists, alongside stolen Ukrainian military equipment.[540] In October 2014, Internal Affairs minister Arsen Avakov told journalists that about 15,000 Ukrainian policemen in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts had defected to the separatists.[541]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Police_and_military_defectors_and_deserters

    That most rebel militants in Donbas are local people has been recognized by almost everybody, including the Kyiv Post and the BCC. Wikipedia states the following:

    As of February 2018, the number of separatist forces were estimated at around 31,000 out of which 80% (25,000) were Donbass residents

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Combatants

    And every time there has been an exchange of prisoners almost everybody on both sides are Ukrainian citizens.

    Perhaps a majority of the combatants at the beginning came from Russia, I don’t know. But the huge crowds of people taking part in the separatist referendum and the numerous civilians putting their bodies in front of the Ukrainian tanks were definitely locals.

    If the Welsh ethnic majority of a small English region adjoining Wales, say in Herefordshire, were to organize a rebellion against an anti-Celtic London government, I would also expect many volunteers from mainland Wales to go and join their co-ethnics but this does not necessarily mean that the rebellious feelings of the locals were not genuine.

    In any case, it doesn’t make any difference to me that Donbas joins Russia or remains in Ukraine. As long as the wishes of the majority are taken into account, I’m fine with any arrangement.

    My biggest problem with this whole situation has always been that Ukraine chose to use a purely military solution to a real political problem in a region full of people with divided loyalties and pressed on it and doubled-down even when they realized that their solution would inevitably cost many innocent lives of their own countrymen.

    The British have fortunately shown a much more civilized approach in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If they ever resorted to bombing civilian areas and killing thousands of innocent people for the greater good of the Kingdom, I’d have the same feelings.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Mikel

    I remember the policemen well. The Ukrainian interior minister had, impulsively, sacked them all a few days previously. How firmly they should be counted in the army I don't know. At the time I was prepared to count them all. The PR man who was the Donetsk Prime Minister for a while said there were 7000 foreign fighters (not all Russian) a few days before the police were sacked. Give Girkin 1000 add the 2000 Cossacks in Slavyansky with him and that leaves 4000 in Donetsk. More than enough to account for all the trouble up to Northwind.

  152. @Philip Owen
    @Mikel

    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people. I lived intermittently in Saratov at the time and significant numbers of people, for example a minibus full of 15 "Cossacks" (13 came back) from Balakovo were reported in the media as going to the Donbass. The local media sent a reporter to interview two complete companies fighting near Gorlivka. There were so many volunteers that only people with recent military experience were accepted. Pay varied. $1000 a dead Ukrainian (Motorola's lot), $300 for battle days or Girkin's $300 a month. The Cossacks appeared to do it for keep and glory. There were Cossacks on both sides of course.

    Then there was my night on the train with the tank fitter from the Russian army. He couldn't wait to tell me about his summer of extended leave. He spent it earning $$$ at a tank maintenance school in Rostov. Not to mention Girkin's own account on VK.con. He complained that only 70 locals turned up to join him and all were over 40 and unemployed. Until he started paying Russians he had very few men. The Cossacks greatly outnumbered him at Slavyansk. Even so, they were enough to start the mischief.

    Replies: @Mikel, @AnonFromTN

    Girkin (nom de guerre Strelkov) came to Slavyansk with 52 men. When he left Slavyansk, his group counted more than a thousand fighters. The difference was locals who joined voluntarily.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @AnonFromTN

    Once Malofeev stumped up the cash. Girkin explained the sudden emergence of cash as resulting from robbing the local banks.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  153. @Simpleguest
    @Philip Owen

    Impressive. Quite a knowledgeable fellow you are.
    From river ports to pig farms, you seem to have done your job well.
    But do explain this statement a bit more:


    Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.
     
    I see contradictions here.

    As far as SSJ100 is concerned, I could accept that spare parts could be an issue, based on Russian sterotypes. All foreign customers returning planes requires links and a bit more details.

    As far as hull losses are concerned, 2 were lost due to pilot blunders (Indonesia customer's demostration flight and Island plane systems testing). A third accident occured also possibly due to pilot error, the Moscow accident.
    That leaves 1 plane lost due to equipment malfunction, fortunatelly without any casulties.
    And here is one very good example of "whataboutery": what about Boeing 737 Max?

    Give Russians some slack and time. The last time they were authentic, industrious and mercantilistic on par with the British was probably during the time of Ivan the Terrible.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Russia produced only 60% of its pork needs. So the government encouraged investment in pork farms. Very large investments in modern pork production came on stream. Production now met about 80% of demand. Then the rouble collapsed. The price for pork in international so in rouble terms, the price of pork rose dramatically. Consumption fell. With the fall in consumption, Russia could supply its own needs for pork.

    There were additional factors, African Swine Fever destroyed a lot of traditional small farm production in Russia. Then it reached China. A huge proportion of the Chinese swine herd has been destroyed. As a result, pork prices remain high. Demand remains low. Current production meets demand and quality (low fat) is not required to compete. Only this year has China approved Russian pork and chicken as fit for export to China. Partly, of course, there is almost no infrastruture in place for transporting bulk and frozen goods to China. It’s less than two years since grain trains made it through. It’s less than 5 years since coal could be shipped by rail. Chinese goods coming the other way are higher added value and can bear higher transport costs.

    Additionally countersanction bans on import of EU, US and Canadian pork made sure that prices in Russia were a little higher than the international price, set in Chicago as there was less competition. Similar things have been happening in other forms of protein production with adjustments to reflect the experience.

    There has been a considerable investment in dairy production. The Russian government gave early priority to foreign dairy brands investing mostly for export. So Indian, Thai, Saudi, German, Vietnamese even Chinese firms have had their giant farms and dairy parlours paid for so long as they provided the marketing expertise to drive exports. Thus Russia has compensated for losing European cheese supply. Palm oil sales are finally dropping. More recently local firms have also been subsidized to set up dairy operations up to and including ice cream. Russia now exports ice cream (mostly to Ukraine).

    • Thanks: Ano4, Blinky Bill
  154. @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen

    Girkin (nom de guerre Strelkov) came to Slavyansk with 52 men. When he left Slavyansk, his group counted more than a thousand fighters. The difference was locals who joined voluntarily.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Once Malofeev stumped up the cash. Girkin explained the sudden emergence of cash as resulting from robbing the local banks.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen

    Are you telling me that Ukrainian soldiers who murder, maim, rape, and rob civilians in Donbass are not paid by the regime that directs their actions? Are you naïve, dumb, or both? Or simply a paid troll?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  155. @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people.
     
    I respect your personal experiences but they're hardly solid proof for your emphatic assertion. In fact, both the former President and Internal Affairs minister of Ukraine would rather disagree with you:


    In May 2014, then Ukrainian president Oleksandr Turchynov stated that numerous Ukrainian military and security personnel had joined the separatists, alongside stolen Ukrainian military equipment.[540] In October 2014, Internal Affairs minister Arsen Avakov told journalists that about 15,000 Ukrainian policemen in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts had defected to the separatists.[541]
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Police_and_military_defectors_and_deserters

    That most rebel militants in Donbas are local people has been recognized by almost everybody, including the Kyiv Post and the BCC. Wikipedia states the following:


    As of February 2018, the number of separatist forces were estimated at around 31,000 out of which 80% (25,000) were Donbass residents
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Combatants

    And every time there has been an exchange of prisoners almost everybody on both sides are Ukrainian citizens.

    Perhaps a majority of the combatants at the beginning came from Russia, I don't know. But the huge crowds of people taking part in the separatist referendum and the numerous civilians putting their bodies in front of the Ukrainian tanks were definitely locals.

    If the Welsh ethnic majority of a small English region adjoining Wales, say in Herefordshire, were to organize a rebellion against an anti-Celtic London government, I would also expect many volunteers from mainland Wales to go and join their co-ethnics but this does not necessarily mean that the rebellious feelings of the locals were not genuine.

    In any case, it doesn't make any difference to me that Donbas joins Russia or remains in Ukraine. As long as the wishes of the majority are taken into account, I'm fine with any arrangement.

    My biggest problem with this whole situation has always been that Ukraine chose to use a purely military solution to a real political problem in a region full of people with divided loyalties and pressed on it and doubled-down even when they realized that their solution would inevitably cost many innocent lives of their own countrymen.

    The British have fortunately shown a much more civilized approach in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If they ever resorted to bombing civilian areas and killing thousands of innocent people for the greater good of the Kingdom, I'd have the same feelings.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    I remember the policemen well. The Ukrainian interior minister had, impulsively, sacked them all a few days previously. How firmly they should be counted in the army I don’t know. At the time I was prepared to count them all. The PR man who was the Donetsk Prime Minister for a while said there were 7000 foreign fighters (not all Russian) a few days before the police were sacked. Give Girkin 1000 add the 2000 Cossacks in Slavyansky with him and that leaves 4000 in Donetsk. More than enough to account for all the trouble up to Northwind.

  156. I did not know that doing business in a country gives one such vide insider knowledge in so many diverse areas. Also one has to be really lucky to meet a guy engaging in clandestine military ops who openly brags about it – some people are really fortunate, I am full of envy …

    That said sanctions and Ru gov money for development presented HUGE opportunities the potential of which was clearly not utilised to the full extend possible or even close to it. There are a lot of things that neither were nor are being done or if done it is both too little and too slow.

    However the bottom line is that Russia was supposed to collapse financially, starve, possibly even implode. It did not happen and the only thing left is to gnash teeth in anger and point out that Russia could have made more out of the situation.

    Similarly in parts of the Ukraine local residents, local gov, local law enforcement and even militaries defied Kiev. These are facts which were objectively observable at that time by anyone who wanted to notice them.

    Again there is no way around it and if one does not want to be left only with angry teeth gnashing the only option left is to point out that Russia provided all kinds of assistance there manpower including.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @maz10

    Travelling by train in Russia is a very good way to be informed about the country. After people get over their disbelief at meeting an unaccompanied foreigner, they can't wait to tell you about their lives. The senior officials are usually drunk even before they board the train. Another time, there was an FSB colonel who described the drug smuggling business to me. Then there are the Chinese salesmen selling industrial size condensing boilers to a competitor of my client. Naturally, foreign embassy staff fly everywhere and learn nothing.

    In the absence of compelte market signals, government money is being invested in lots of low return projects. Between 2008 and 2012 as Prime Minister, Putin spent a lot of time out of the office travelling around. His ear was captured by producer interests. As a result subsidizing producers is the economic priority in Russia. This is the way to Argentina or back to the Soviet Union or in a milder form, post war UK up until Thatcher.

    Replies: @maz10

  157. @Philip Owen
    @AnonFromTN

    Once Malofeev stumped up the cash. Girkin explained the sudden emergence of cash as resulting from robbing the local banks.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    Are you telling me that Ukrainian soldiers who murder, maim, rape, and rob civilians in Donbass are not paid by the regime that directs their actions? Are you naïve, dumb, or both? Or simply a paid troll?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @AnonFromTN

    All those actions are war crimes. Not much evidence being presented.

  158. @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen

    Are you telling me that Ukrainian soldiers who murder, maim, rape, and rob civilians in Donbass are not paid by the regime that directs their actions? Are you naïve, dumb, or both? Or simply a paid troll?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    All those actions are war crimes. Not much evidence being presented.

  159. @maz10
    I did not know that doing business in a country gives one such vide insider knowledge in so many diverse areas. Also one has to be really lucky to meet a guy engaging in clandestine military ops who openly brags about it – some people are really fortunate, I am full of envy ...

    That said sanctions and Ru gov money for development presented HUGE opportunities the potential of which was clearly not utilised to the full extend possible or even close to it. There are a lot of things that neither were nor are being done or if done it is both too little and too slow.

    However the bottom line is that Russia was supposed to collapse financially, starve, possibly even implode. It did not happen and the only thing left is to gnash teeth in anger and point out that Russia could have made more out of the situation.

    Similarly in parts of the Ukraine local residents, local gov, local law enforcement and even militaries defied Kiev. These are facts which were objectively observable at that time by anyone who wanted to notice them.

    Again there is no way around it and if one does not want to be left only with angry teeth gnashing the only option left is to point out that Russia provided all kinds of assistance there manpower including.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Travelling by train in Russia is a very good way to be informed about the country. After people get over their disbelief at meeting an unaccompanied foreigner, they can’t wait to tell you about their lives. The senior officials are usually drunk even before they board the train. Another time, there was an FSB colonel who described the drug smuggling business to me. Then there are the Chinese salesmen selling industrial size condensing boilers to a competitor of my client. Naturally, foreign embassy staff fly everywhere and learn nothing.

    In the absence of compelte market signals, government money is being invested in lots of low return projects. Between 2008 and 2012 as Prime Minister, Putin spent a lot of time out of the office travelling around. His ear was captured by producer interests. As a result subsidizing producers is the economic priority in Russia. This is the way to Argentina or back to the Soviet Union or in a milder form, post war UK up until Thatcher.

    • Troll: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @maz10
    @Philip Owen

    Granted there are some Russians who like to brag – had some experience with this myself – but nine / eight out of ten are just attention hoes spouting BS hoping to impress their interlocutors. Of course some really juicy stuff is sometimes spilled out but this tends to be an exception confirming the rule. Thus, with all due respect sir, I remain sceptical.


    We live in the get rich very fast era. Most of business is interested in quick buck via financial manipulation not investment into production. For this reason in today’s world manufacturing needs public support which can take various forms. Take Musk for example – he would not be able to get any of the high tech stuff done without gigantic subsidies and he is no exception. An even better example are the Chinese who are very good at it with SOBs facilitating the financing of manufacturing sector and that without the inflationary effect because all the ‘money’ are just electrons & symbols to balance the books without excess cash flooding. The Russians are still lightyears behind in this as it is one of the fields which they neglected. They need to catch up on this if they want to get ahead.

    Replies: @maz10

  160. @Philip Owen
    @maz10

    Travelling by train in Russia is a very good way to be informed about the country. After people get over their disbelief at meeting an unaccompanied foreigner, they can't wait to tell you about their lives. The senior officials are usually drunk even before they board the train. Another time, there was an FSB colonel who described the drug smuggling business to me. Then there are the Chinese salesmen selling industrial size condensing boilers to a competitor of my client. Naturally, foreign embassy staff fly everywhere and learn nothing.

    In the absence of compelte market signals, government money is being invested in lots of low return projects. Between 2008 and 2012 as Prime Minister, Putin spent a lot of time out of the office travelling around. His ear was captured by producer interests. As a result subsidizing producers is the economic priority in Russia. This is the way to Argentina or back to the Soviet Union or in a milder form, post war UK up until Thatcher.

    Replies: @maz10

    Granted there are some Russians who like to brag – had some experience with this myself – but nine / eight out of ten are just attention hoes spouting BS hoping to impress their interlocutors. Of course some really juicy stuff is sometimes spilled out but this tends to be an exception confirming the rule. Thus, with all due respect sir, I remain sceptical.

    We live in the get rich very fast era. Most of business is interested in quick buck via financial manipulation not investment into production. For this reason in today’s world manufacturing needs public support which can take various forms. Take Musk for example – he would not be able to get any of the high tech stuff done without gigantic subsidies and he is no exception. An even better example are the Chinese who are very good at it with SOBs facilitating the financing of manufacturing sector and that without the inflationary effect because all the ‘money’ are just electrons & symbols to balance the books without excess cash flooding. The Russians are still lightyears behind in this as it is one of the fields which they neglected. They need to catch up on this if they want to get ahead.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @maz10
    @maz10

    Let me add that Putin’s decision to prop out the manufacturing sector was the right one. The same goes for agriculture. The reason is very simple: if you want to import you need first either to earn or borrow the money for it and then you spend it right away for the imports. At the end of the day the short term need is satisfied but the very next day the cycle starts again. At least Russia having money from exporting commodities did not accumulate a crushing debt. The only way out of it is to strengthen your own agriculture / manufacturing and other ‘producing actual stuff’ sectors of the economy. Another positive effect is job preservation / creation. Putin went in the right direction but thus far the execution was far from perfect – I would say not above grade C.

  161. @maz10
    @Philip Owen

    Granted there are some Russians who like to brag – had some experience with this myself – but nine / eight out of ten are just attention hoes spouting BS hoping to impress their interlocutors. Of course some really juicy stuff is sometimes spilled out but this tends to be an exception confirming the rule. Thus, with all due respect sir, I remain sceptical.


    We live in the get rich very fast era. Most of business is interested in quick buck via financial manipulation not investment into production. For this reason in today’s world manufacturing needs public support which can take various forms. Take Musk for example – he would not be able to get any of the high tech stuff done without gigantic subsidies and he is no exception. An even better example are the Chinese who are very good at it with SOBs facilitating the financing of manufacturing sector and that without the inflationary effect because all the ‘money’ are just electrons & symbols to balance the books without excess cash flooding. The Russians are still lightyears behind in this as it is one of the fields which they neglected. They need to catch up on this if they want to get ahead.

    Replies: @maz10

    Let me add that Putin’s decision to prop out the manufacturing sector was the right one. The same goes for agriculture. The reason is very simple: if you want to import you need first either to earn or borrow the money for it and then you spend it right away for the imports. At the end of the day the short term need is satisfied but the very next day the cycle starts again. At least Russia having money from exporting commodities did not accumulate a crushing debt. The only way out of it is to strengthen your own agriculture / manufacturing and other ‘producing actual stuff’ sectors of the economy. Another positive effect is job preservation / creation. Putin went in the right direction but thus far the execution was far from perfect – I would say not above grade C.

  162. @AltanBakshi
    @Sher Singh

    But its also the color of purity and peace, and the benevolent Goddess Saraswati is always clad in white.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    Which dumbass “god” is irrelevant to Belarussians/Russians and all of us.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @RadicalCenter

    So Tuvans, Kalmyks, Buryats and at least about 500k convert Russians(and others) to Buddhism and Hinduism are irrelevant to you? Are they all not Россияне? You are free to have your opinion, but its quite silly of you to claim that your viewpoint is somehow universal and normative.

  163. @Mikel
    @AP

    No, I didn't say that you were "covering up" anything. What happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas and, as so often in the past, you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it, you couldn't avoid making contradictory statements.

    At the beginning I thought that this knee-jerk reaction of yours whenever I mentioned the disastrous Ukrainian decision of confronting the Donbas rebellion with a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars was due to your being a Ukrainian nationalist. But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it's all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.

    It is well known that insulting unknown people on the internet and abusing prescription drugs are the two major addictions of the moment. I hope that you only indulge in the former.

    PS- Based on the OHCHR pdf, the figure of 3,000 civilian deaths looks closer to reality than the 4,000 that I used. I'm not sure if I used it based on some news article that I read or perhaps I remembered that in previous years the OHCHR declared that their figure was likely not complete and didn't include hundreds of missing persons. Of course this changes nothing about my original comment #96, as any non-perturbed person would be able to understand.

    PPS- I don't think that the size of the cities occupied by each combatant has much relationship with who causes more civilian casualties nowadays. Lately most of them have been occurring in small settlements close to the fronts. But the Ukrainian army is composed of far-right battalion volunteers (especially active on the front) and conscripts from the whole country (many of them from the West). It's by no means implausible that on average they have more disregard for "Moskali" civilian lives than the rebels, most of whom are local Donbas people.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @AP

    what happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas

    You claimed that Ukraine went “for a bloodbath” and lied about the number of civilians killed.

    you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it,

    I proved your claim was false and provided a link, forcing you to acknowledge this.

    a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars

    There you go again, with your dishonesty. Second Chechen war occurred after the Balkan wars and had 25,000 civilian casualties – over 7 times more than in Donbas, with a smaller population. (first Chechen war was even bloodier but that was earlier).

    But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it’s all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.

    All because I correctly identified your pattern of dishonesty. Правда глаза колет.

    It is well known that insulting unknown people

    I correctly described you. In the past I provided friendly advice to you – be honest, and you won’t be described as dishonest. You have failed to follow this advice. Well, it’s hard to change a fundamental part of your nature.

    I have had various debates and disagreements with people such as Dmitri who are not dishonest and have not called them such.

  164. @RadicalCenter
    @AltanBakshi

    Which dumbass “god” is irrelevant to Belarussians/Russians and all of us.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    So Tuvans, Kalmyks, Buryats and at least about 500k convert Russians(and others) to Buddhism and Hinduism are irrelevant to you? Are they all not Россияне? You are free to have your opinion, but its quite silly of you to claim that your viewpoint is somehow universal and normative.

  165. @Europe Europa
    @Daniel Chieh

    In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.

    Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don't come into it at all and are very much looked down on.

    Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don't carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Dan Hayes, @Daniel Chieh, @RadicalCenter

    Oh grow up and join the real world. It would be wonderful if we didn’t need guns. We do and we will.

    Someone trying to kill, rape, or rob you is not a “man trying to resolve differences.”

    Try reasoning with the attacker instead of drawing a gun and you end up dead, paralyzed, badly beaten, raped, whatever the attacker wants. Propose “an honest manly fistfight” with an ill-willed aggressor and get shot, stabbed, swarmed by a group, kicked while you’re down, and worse (if they can muster the strength to keep hitting you while they’re laughing).

    Tell the woman, the elderly person, the handicapped person, the injured person, the small and slightly built man, to reason with the attacker or fight him off with her own bare hands.

    Or use “pepper spray”, yeah that’ll do it. Blow that “rape whistle” and yell “no” and kick and hope for help to arrive quickly.

    My friend was raped as a teen; a good gun-banning “liberal”, she was of course not carrying a gun and sanctimoniously insisted on doing volunteer work in the heavily African city of Trenton, New Jersey. She traveled to and from the volunteer site alone. Even after the fact, she remained in favor of confiscating everyone’s handguns (so that other women in that situation would be helplessly savaged).

    By contrast, my sister was accosted by two men in a parking lot at night after teaching a classroom course in Albuquerque, New Mexico. She placed her hand on her gun, warned them that she was armed, and told them to leave the area. They didn’t listen, smirking and advancing on her instead. She pulled her gun out and pointed it and suddenly they decided to turn and run like the tough guys they were. (Unfortunately for them, what they didn’t know is that the OTHER course she taught was a Self-Defense With Firearms course for women. Delicious justice.)

    Should my sister have tried to resolve their “differences” by pleading with them, or proposing that she, a small weak woman, box the two of them to determine a winner?

    Do you advise your wife and daughter to go about unarmed in cities and try to “resolve their differences” with a mugger or rapist? I really expect an answer.

  166. @Philip Owen
    @Europe Europa

    Yes. Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.

    Replies: @A123, @RadicalCenter

    Plenty of gunowners can readily correct your bitchy, mocking, painfully naive attitude without using a gun. You can show us how they are pansies and you are tough.

    Do you advise your own wife and daughter to go about in cities unarmed and try to “resolve their differences” with men who try to rape or assault them? Yes or no.

  167. @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    Yes, I also remember the epic scene at the end of Le Morte d'Arthur where King Arthur faces his illegitimate son Morded by stripping off his accoutrements to partake in a mortal contest of dickslaps to the face.

    Its all here on Fanfiction.net.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    Don’t talk like that, you’ll just get Europa and Phil excited.

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