The night was clearly Kamala’s. “As the only black person on stage, I would like to speak on the issue of race.” And then she tossed and gored Biden, who, being a pale white male, had no way to counter. A prediction made here several months ago has held up well:
Biden, whose POC cred comes exclusively from holding the vice-presidency during Obama’s time in office, isn’t even trying to maneuver towards more favorable terrain. He is charging up the hill into a fortified opposition that is waiting for him. During the primary debates, Biden is going to make a sorry contrast to Kamala Harris when the subjects are waaaaycism, misogyny, and the other assorted forms of putative badwhite bigotry in America–and on the left, those subjects crowd out almost everything else. The optics, as they say, are going to be bad for Biden.
On at least one occasion, Biden referred to the “Obama-Biden administration”. Yeah, the Obama-Biden administration–said no one, ever… until last night, in desperation.
If Buttigieg moves into the top position as a result of Biden’s takedown, it’ll be short-lived. Harris will be able to dispatch him just as easily as she did Biden in the next debate. Though several candidates made appeals to the LGBTQ community–and that’s the only version of the acronym I recall hearing, five letters, no symbols, so I guess it’s the officially approved designation again–they have nothing like the electoral clout blacks do.
Yesterday morning, Harris was a distant fifth in the betting markets. She has now edged ahead of Biden to take the lead:
Despite getting shafted badly on speaking time, Andrew Yang dominated online polling on who won the second debate. Tulsi Gabbard similarly dominated online polling from the first night.
This is a phenomenon that extends all the way back to 2008, when Ron Paul regularly won online polls by large margins. He did it again in 2012, and then Trump did so in 2016. Now it’s Tulsi’s turn (when she and Yang share the stage in the future, she is likely to win because though Yang is anti-war, it’s a side issue for him while it’s Tulsi’s centerpiece).
The virtual support anti-war candidates receive is embarrassing for the bipartisan War Party, so it’s sloughed off as being unscientific and therefore meaningless–fair-ish, and credible enough with Ron Paul but made less so with Trump–or, more recently, as being attributable to malevolent Russian bots.
Though more than half of the twenty Democrat candidates who took stage this week are white men, only three of the candidates shown above with any chance of winning are white men. Biden and Sanders are relics, only in contention because of time served. If they were a generation younger, they’d be bumping along at the bottom of the market alongside the other forgettable white men who are down there now. Buttigieg has a workaround on account of being gay, but I suspect that is largely due to the novelty factor. Now that it has been done, it’s not going to be enough to climb more than a step or two up the oppression pyramid in the future.
I’ve long predicted that John Kerry will turn out to be the last white man nominated as a Democrat presidential candidate of the United States (as currently constituted). After this election cycle completes, I think that assessment will seem obviously correct to nearly everybody and 2024–or 2028, if a Democrat wins in 2020–will confirm it to be the case.