Enough is enough, either Russia responds by declaring war on Israel or else it shows that is nothing more than a pathetic puppet to Israel tolerating the fact that Israel can kill Russians without consequence.

The Syrian and Russian air defenses are integrated, so even if an F-16 was hiding behind the IL-20, the AA operators should have known not to shoot near it.

Mimi is a bit too passionate and not a military expert, but I agree with her takes here 100%:

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1041971525753036800
https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1041957578123530240
https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1041960273572114432
https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1041962992072646656

or else it shows that is nothing more than a pathetic puppet to Israel tolerating the fact that Israel can kill Russians without consequence.

Should Britain declare war on Russia, by this logic?

Elijah Magnier says it was to Syria’s and Iran’s advantage. Glad to hear that! /s

One can hope, but you should never underestimate Putin’s capacity to absorb stab-in-the-backs and other humiliations. The problem we have is that Putin’s own “partners” do not respect him or Russia.

“We know it was you Israel, we’re gonna pretend it wasn’t this time, but next time we will retaliate, don’t see this as weekness, be afraid and don’t attack again”

Israel won’t care.

Are there still Russian MPs next to the Israel-occupied Golan Heights?

It would be a good move to move them all to the North where they are needed for Putin’s next Syria deal and let Syrians and Iranians take over the whole de facto border.

England could certainly try. lol

Power is what really counts here, and I’m no military expert, but if Russia has the means to make Syrian sky Judenfrei, this should have been done years ago. Israel is the problem, it is time we started treating it as such.

Clearly allowing the Israelis to bomb your allies fighting alongside you was daft. This should be stopped.

Congrats on the Ru MoD for calling the Israelis out explicitly, can’t be allowed to hide behind others, Israel hates operating in the open. Erdogan can’t be seen to be acting in Israel’s interests.

Next steps, retaliation proportionately at the right time. Upgrade the Syrian forces further, perhaps Iran and Hezbollah too. Sanctions will hit Israel even harder than they did Turkey.

Reality is the Israel lobby has been driving a lot of this new Cold War carp, time to call out Israel and the lobby.

But it’s still interesting what really happened.

Remember the Liberty

Rather foolish when considering the lack of Brit government evidence to support such a move.

There are a number of arguments that it really was the Israelis.

They are that brazen, so it’s at least not inconceivable. They have destroyed an American spy ship when America was already their biggest benefactor. Why not destroy a Russian spy plane when Russian interests are opposed to Israeli interests? Attackers certainly have a motivation to destroy spy planes (especially if they are transmitting data to the attacked side, which was very likely happening).

Then we’d need some information about air defense systems, but theoretically IFF systems prevent the shooting of missiles at targets which have friendly targets nearby, so theoretically speaking, the official version should be impossible. Israeli F-16s also cannot be hiding behind a slow spy plane.

So the official Russian explanation doesn’t seem likely. Of course there is very little information out there (other than official communiques), so we need some time to find out. If we’ll ever find it out.

Britain is a puppet, puppets don’t declare war they do what what their masters tell them to do.

Non-sequitur

The same people who orchestrated the Turkish downing of Su-24 are responsible for this.

You lot were definitely among the knee-jerk crowd wanting to go to war with Turkey.

Russia operates in hostile surrondings yet achieves its geopolitical goals. Death of 15 Russian servicemen is a tragedy, but far there are far higher stakes here.

Britain first has to assemble a motley assortment of continental allies and third world and colonial auxiliaries.
It never fought its wars alone and with British soldiers dominating the war effort.

The perfidious Eternal Anglo is incapable of this right now, so they resort to bellicose statements, diplomat expulsions and other hot air.

Hopefully, post-Brexit and with Scottish independence looming, England will remain alone to enjoy its enrichment, lords and monarchy.

To be perfectly honest, I don’t like Britons or Americans or most other English speaking peoples, but this constant Anglo-bashing is getting boring, and makes me inclined to defend them.

but this constant Anglo-bashing is getting boring, and makes me inclined to defend them.

Well, faint and fall out on the floor.

Has anyone checked to see if there were any vacationing Americans in the area?

More deranged Anglophobia

Britain first has to assemble a motley assortment of continental allies and third world and colonial auxiliaries.

Britain has usually fought against other European countries to protect its European allies, not in wars of agression like France and Germany. I guess this is a bad thing though, since anti-Anglos are usually all about fetishistic power worship of conquerors who killed millions of other Europeans like Napoleon or Hitler. Non-Anglo colonial forces have never played a significant part in a British war in Europe.

It never fought its wars alone and with British soldiers dominating the war effort.

Not true, there are the Peninsular War and the North Africa campaign in which British soldiers performed very well. I don’t know what the point of this criticism is anyway. If you want to claim that British do not make good soldiers (which is incorrect), then just come out and say it. If you want to claim that Britain’s allies did not benefit from their relationship and were somehow forced into war by Britain (also incorrect), then just come out and say it.

The perfidious Eternal Anglo

What exactly this perfidy consists of is never specified. Perfidious like promising not to annex Czechoslovakia and then annexing it?

so they resort to bellicose statements, diplomat expulsions and other hot air.

Sort of like how Russia (unfortunately, imo) cannot do anything to stop ZOG shooting down its planes?

Russia has itself to blame. It had S-400 at Hmeymim that could have shot those f16s down 100s of kms before they created a danger. Could’ve shot the f16s down even as they retreated. They don’t use them. They don’t give them to the Syrians to use. Instead they let the Syrians use their old S-200 that aren’t good enough and aren’t even programmed with IFF to avoid Russian planes. Russia calls enemies such as the US or Israel “partners”. Every time the US spits in Russia’s face, Russia begs in response to be friends. This is not behavior that invites respect or creates deterrence out of fear. Even now it is only the Russian defense ministry calling it like it is, with nothing from Putin, indicating Russia will again do nothing – signalling to Israel it’s not even a risk to use Russian assets as shields when attacking Syria.

It looks like IDF liaison officer at Russia’s MOD writes their official statements.

Someone wrote that spy planes often don’t have IFF, as it might interfere with their primary function. It’d be nice if someone could confirm this.

Syria has many interested parties. In order of power on the ground and with their main interests listed they are:

Syrian government: unite country under their rule and take revenge/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones.

Sunni rebels: everything up to and including world domination (they is crae crae)/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones.

Kurds: independence/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones.

America: no permament base for Iran, some deference from the Syrian government.

Turkey: to be seen as protector of Sunni Islam + screw the Kurds and “uppity” Assad/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones

Russia: will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones

Iran: hardcore element want Syria as Iranian colony/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones…now they are bring forced to.

Israel: no long-term Iranian presence in Syria.

Hezbollah: Syria as lranian colony/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones

Gulf Arabs: Sunni domination of Syria/will accept a degree of federalisation and let most bygones be bygones

Once you understand the above you understand why the various parties are making the decisions they are making. Obviously, this is not how all started their involvement but it is how they will finish it. This is also a reasonable grounding for peace.

Otoh, if you follow the theories of motivations presented in this comments section then you would be in a state of continual shock at the various actors’ behaviour.

Rather than resenting Britain for divorcing the EU, why not learn from it?

No, the statements blamed Israel for the situation. I expected something way weaker.

ussian forces in Syria ultimately operate on the sufferance of Israel, Turkey, and the US

S-400 – which could shoot down the F-16s – are deployed here. So Israel’s airstrikes are on de facto permission from S-400 operators.

Israel bombs Syria hundreds of times, from this area of sea, for over 3 years.

Russia allows Israel to bomb (which is real, as S-400 are deployed here) and it also allows Syria to shoot back. But Israeli planes always stay out of range of the S-200 in this area of sea.

Russia’s role like a prison guard who says “I don’t see anything”, when two inmates are fighting.

Statistically, in retrospect, it seems inevitably that the flaw of the system eventually happens.

According to this official version, Russia allows Israel to hit Syria, then Syria shoots back and hits Russia.

It is difficult to absorb with this many deaths.

And what about the Russian claim that the French launched missiles? Is there any corroboration of this?

On a Hungarian forum (which I don’t follow myself, but was linked to elsewhere) a former Hungarian air defense officer wrote a couple possible scenarios.

He wrote it was possible that the Israelis were hiding behind the Russian plane, though he didn’t think it was the most likely. He thought it was simply that the Russians were very much interested in the Israeli capabilities and so were constantly listening in to these attacks. However, this kind of spying live from the frontline was always bound to be risky. If not for Russia (which might have learned things worth a spy plane or two), but at least for the spy plane and its crew.

I think it was a false initial information, due to the fog of war.

veering off topic, but it’s probably a sad thing in world history that British and British off-shoots came to dominate the world and not a continental power, eg France until and including the premier Empire, or any German or Russian derived empire.

Napoléon in fact compared England to Carthage, and rightly so, even once he called them “a nation of shopkeepers”. Was he a sore loser? Probably, the British exhibited genius time and again in empire-making, science and technology. Could have others pulled the industrial revolution, the French? Or some German polity? probably, but god knows how long that would have taken them. Where Napoléon was right is about the mercantile ethos of the Brits. They were always biased toward colonial exploitation, pillage instead of long-term rule and order. I see continuation of that in the US and how it deals with the world and its own population. And now this ideology is getting imposed on other people. Ancients Greeks and Romans saw the mercantile Carthaginians as lowly and dishonorable traders, not very different to how European nobles despised merchants and bourgeois centuries thereafter. I think it shows in today’s global elites and their values.

Does this mean we should just let them kill us wholesale, cause we are so afraid of what they might do? That’s cowardice and stupidity.

Russia can escalate. Russia can hit Western military bases in the Middle East from its own territory.

Someone else wrote something slightly different: the IFF is not a perfect foolproof fail-safe mechanism, many things can and do go wrong with it, especially if it was from the wrong angle, enemy planes were close, etc.

In other words, the official version is quite a bit believable.

The more recent announcement from the Russian MoD said that the f16s fired from a low altitude in the vicinity of the frigate. I think the frigate didn’t participate in the attack and the original report about the frigate firing was a mistake.

F-16 and Il-20 have as different as possible radar signature from each other, so I (while not being a radar expert), do not understand how this mistake was even technically possible.

F-16s hiding behind a plane with unrelated radar signature – but the planes should be very different from each other on the radar screen and easy to distinguish a large, slow turboprop plane, from small fast jets travelling in an opposite direction.

–

Here the official version:

Yes, that’s very likely.

F-16 and Il-20 have as different as possible radar signature from each other, so I (while not being a radar expert), do not understand how this mistake was even technically possible.

What the guys on the Hungarian forum wrote (and some of these were air defense officers who had worked with the S-200 Vega in Hungary) was that it’s not as trivial as civilians brought up on video games would imagine. Theoretically a turboprop airliner and a jet fighter look as different as it gets, but it all depends on the angle, the distance between the two, etc.

Eventually, it’s very easy to make such a mistake.

Pretty damning if true about the IFF and S200.

Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey, effectively imposed a no fly zone and bombed the carp out of Turkish proxies in Syria.

since anti-Anglos are usually all about fetishistic power worship of conquerors who killed millions of other Europeans like Napoleon or Hitler

Don’t bother playing your concern trolling games, it may work at hangouts such as the Telegraph or Guardian, but in the end death tolls matter less than the actual outcomes of the various actors. Britain fought to make world non white, Hitler was fighting for white survival, I know who of the two were better for white people ultimately. The Anglo really means (((Anglo))), to hell with them, no sympathy for the devil.

Russians are certainly at fault for having allowed the Israelis this freedom of action over Syria and trusting them. Let’s assume the official version is correct, and the Syrians made this enormous blunder. But if you consider their options, that also means the Syrians were supposed to sit and take it while Russian air defense and interceptors where watching comfortably nearby, and do nothing to retaliate…since the S-200 is the only means of retaliation they were allowed to have and the nice Israeli “partners” would knowingly fly in close vicinity to Russian assets. In other words the Russians backed them into a corner with these shady and ambiguous dealings with the Israelis.

What the Hungarian guys wrote about the Vega and the IFF is that these systems require highly trained specialists to operate them. Basically, I’d be skeptical of Arabs’ ability to operate them flawlessly.

It all depends on the usual things like angle, closeness of targets, how close the enemy is, etc.

I hope the link works, I couldn’t open this (it’s forbidden from my computer in the office), but apparently it’s in Russian. Anyway, I read a Hungarian translation of this, and it should be an interview with a Russian (ret.) air defense general, who is not very kind to the Syrian operators.

http://aviator.guru/blog/43611848180/General-Gorkov:-V-gibeli-Il-20-vinoven-ne-tolko-Izrayil?image=20437290924

So it was probably a Syrian screwup.

I took the Ru MoD briefing to imply this is what the Israelis did. As you say easy to make mistakes, friendly fire is all too common.

it’s probably a sad thing in world history that British and British off-shoots came to dominate the world and not a continental power, eg France

France post Revolution, and much more so Russia post Revolution and Nazi Germany, were morally worse than the Anglo world. Germany under the monarchy and Austria-Hungary were better, as was Spain further back in time. Pre-revolutionary Russia was probably better.

So it is not an accurate generalization to say that a continental power ultimately ruling and shaping the world would have been better than Anglo dominance. Robespierre and Napoleon unleashed mass political murder and nationalism, Bolshevism and Nazism were even worse.

Britain fought to make world non white, Hitler was fighting for white survival, I know who of the two were better for white people ultimately.

Well, if one of your brothers kills all of your other brothers and sisters, including yourself, and then goes on to survive and have many descendants, then, I guess, from a genetic interests point of view, it’s better than if no one kills any of your brothers or sisters, but longer term, none of you will have descendants.

Still, you’d need to be psychopathic to support the murder of your brothers and sisters. And you’d need to be an extreme masochist to enjoy your own dispossession and murder.

In other news, the long-assault on Idlib has been indefinitely postponed.

skirpal/salisbury imo

Europe has endured many deadly wars in its history, Mao killed many of his people, the black plague wiped out cities, such things happened, however what the (((Anglo))) represents is profoundly worse. People have survived these things, but this global SJW ideology that is being enforced by the (((Anglo))) is an extermination event for the white race.

the Russian claim that the French launched missiles

F16s firing missiles from low, close and behind a NATO ship to make it look like the missiles came from them – interesting they picked a French ship as the sacrifice for a potential Russian/Syrian counter attack. I wonder if Macron was told in advance so he could prepare his response to a bunch of dead French sailors?

this scenario could be a possible motive for taking out the spy plane if its radars were specifically watching for that kind of operation (which they ought to have been after the last time)

If Russia does now deliver the S300 it could be manned by Russians for this reason.

as an ultra-anglo i kind of agree we messed up – creating the most powerful nations in world history and then letting them be hijacked by a banking mafia who want to turn all the most impressive nations into 85 IQ slave cattle. personally i see it as a duty to make things right but i understand if people are mad.

however you’re not going to survive without us cos we’re the only people who are both smart enough and savage enough to out play the bad guys.

angry direct responses to having a red flag waved in your face is the desired reaction

the IRA waged a guerrilla campaign to no effect for decades until they started to target the banks – UK govt surrendered almost immediately afterwards

similarly the US is ruled by the banking mafia so in the same way the Russkis need to think where the banking mafia have their eggs

How do you know that Hitler wanted to kill his brothers? neutral is neutral not Jewish.

Yes, so sad that someone who started wars that killed millions of people like Napoleon and subjugated other European nations did not dominate the world. Britain never dominated Europe anyway (or tried to). As I commented earlier, unsurprising that an anti-Anglo is a power-fetishist who fantasies about being conquered by the French or Germans.

Where Napoléon was right is about the mercantile ethos of the Brits. They were always biased toward colonial exploitation, pillage instead of long-term rule and order

This is hysterical since Napoleon literally plundered the rest of Europe to finance uncessesary and self-destructive wars.
British people turned two entire continents from wilderness into stable, peaceful societies that were the most succesful on earth.
Even the non-white colonies were generally improved by British rule. Africa certainly was. India is more debatable, but during the Raj British rule can certainly not be characterised as pillage or exploitation, and involved more ‘long-term rule and order’ and peace than any previous period of Indian history.

And now this ideology is getting imposed on other people. Ancients Greeks and Romans saw the mercantile Carthaginians as lowly and dishonorable traders, not very different to how European nobles despised merchants and bourgeois centuries thereafter. I think it shows in today’s global elites and their values.

Perhaps it would be better for you to examine the actual facts and events of history instead of vague abstractions and analogies.
This might shock you, but the most succesful city of Ancient Greece, Athens, actually did quite a lot of trading, and they were also the most vigorous and boldest state.

Britain fought to make world non white

Fantasism, even Churchill later wanted to run on the slogan ‘Keep Britain White’.

Hitler was fighting for white survival

Hitler started a war of German expansionism that resulted in the present state of the world. How would white people have been destroyed if Hitler didn’t invade Poland? Or was it absolutely crucial for the survival of Europeans that West Prussia be occupied by Germans?

Anatoly, you always try to be objective, you were so harsh after the Petrov/Boshirov interview (far too harsh imo) but here you act like this isn’t the huge humiliation for Russia that it is.

This was the cherry on top:

Putin on Israel’s role in Il-20 downing: ‘Looks accidental, like chain of tragic circumstances’

What a fucking cuck, holy shit.

This is not about fighting Israel for the benefit of Syria or Iran. This is about being attacked and defending yourself.
If 14 killed Russians is not enough (not to count the dozen/200 that Pompeo bragged about murdering) then how many Russians have to be killed?
And if the answer is “all of them, we can’t defend ourselves” then what are they doing there?

Lob a few cruise missiles with tactical nukes on them without using the strategic arsenal and see who has escalation dominance.

English people are not Jews though. A fatal flaw in your argument. After Jews, French have contributed significantly more to ‘global SJW ideology’ than English people anyway.

Slavs, for example, which is right the second largest white group after Germanics. He also didn’t like Latins, nor generic white Americans, though maybe he didn’t want to exterminate them. But certainly they’d have been subjugated, and it’s natural for humans to resist it.

IMO, even if it’s a symbolic “blow up empty building” effort, Russia should respond minimally. This is pretty embarrassing.

Hitler started a war of German expansionism that resulted in the present state of the world.

reacting like this to anti-anglo stuff helps the bad guys and incentivises them to do more of it for divide and rule

The slogans of the two sides were clear, Churchill and Roosevelt were making grand proclamations about their “universal values” and other such bullshit, the other sides were clear in their battle for blood and soil. You may call the utterings of Churchill as only propaganda, but even if this was the case he decided to kill millions in the name of such propaganda and that alone is unforgivable. This same propaganda also has now become sacrosanct dogma that leads to jail in most of Europe who questions it.

Blaming Hitler for the present state of the world is simply wrong, the blame is on him.

Anglos are outplaying the bad guys? Your streets are dominated by aggressive, intimidating muslims, and the English don’t even defend their own girls from systematic rape and torture.

It would seem that the English are the quintessential Anglos.
So which anglos are you talking about?

This is not about fighting Israel for the benefit of Syria or Iran. This is about being attacked and defending yourself. If 14 killed Russians is not enough (not to count the dozen/200 that Pompeo bragged about murdering) then how many Russians have to be killed? And if the answer is “all of them, we can’t defend ourselves” then what are they doing there?

I have this question as well. That’s a funny way to handle a bully: give him everything he wants and don’t make a peep.

So it was probably a Syrian screwup.

I see a pattern stretching from The Ukraine to Syria: Russian presence in a war zone, Russian missiles and air defenses, planes fall from the sky, some sort of “mistake.”

and the English don’t even defend their own girls from systematic rape and torture

The Anglos don’t care if their own girls are raped, but I am very sure that the (((Anglos))) will not be reacting that way if it happened to their girls.

Blaming Hitler for the present state of the world is simply wrong

H. saved the Bolsheviks and created Israel so there’s that.

Chill Ivan, place the red button on the ground and step away.

The Russians shot down a couple of their own aircraft during the Ossetian War. No weapon system is 100% foolproof against friendly fire. Separate forces operating alongside one another only adds to the possibility for error, and Syria’s SAM operators have never earned a reputation for world class proficiency.

The official story is unfortunate and embarrassing, but it does make sense to me.

i didn’t say “are outplaying” i said “are capable of outplaying” (and even then the odds aren’t that great).

i agree we’re doing a terrible job currently cos like most peoples most of the smartest anglos are upper middle class and the upper middle class are the ones most gas-lit by the media – but it’s not over yet.

Syria doesn’t need S300, more air-defense systems. There is already S400 in the country, and they never engage Israeli aircraft. The problem we have is a problem of willpower, lack of intestinal fortitude in the Kremlin. This is not for the lack of military capability.

Chill Ivan

I am not Russian if that’s what you are implying.
Ivan is actually the second most popular male name in my country but I doubt you had that in mind.

Soviet/Russian weapons systems are not as user friendly as American/Western ones, and so they require better trained crew than Western systems. This opens up the possibility of major screwups in the hands of badly trained incompetent crews.

This is I think a major weakness of Russian/Soviet weapon systems, they look impressive on paper, and are great in the hands of competent and well trained crews, but the soft parameters of American systems make them more robust to the incompetence of their crews. They are also usually easier to maintain.

To be perfectly honest, I don’t like Britons or Americans or most other English speaking peoples, but this constant Anglo-bashing is getting boring, and makes me inclined to defend them.

I suppose one cannot really blame them for acting in their own self-interest, but this attitude of acting like we should be grateful to them for doing things that benefit them and having to often assert their superiority, whether in moral matters or the petty details of British housing is grating to me.

Putin’s response was strange to see now – to take away blame from Israel, even relative to the Turkey incident (which resulted far less deaths). Yet here a significant aviation disaster for the mission in Syria, with 15 airmen lost.

Shoigu blamed Israel, while Putin then seems to contradict him.

I guess one possibility, just Putin thinks there was no reason for Syrian S-200 to shoot down IL-20, in response to Israel’s F-16s.

One is a large and slow turboprop, the other small and fast jets – so it’s not clear why they would shoot a turboprop, since it doesn’t have a similar radar signature to fighter jets.

It’s Putin’s decision to allow Israeli airstrikes, or make an agreement to allow this (Israel’s airstrikes are happening with de facto his consent – S-400 operators are very close, and can shoot down the Israeli planes if they want anytime). It would have avoided the incident if the airstrikes (on Hezbollah or Iran) were not allowed.

Also Putin’s decision was to allow Syria to fire the S-200s after the incidents, apparently without co-ordination with Russian aviation. It would have also avoided the incident if this was banned.

For the current game to continue, and not to kill soldiers, requires nobody to make mistakes. For three years, it was like this with no deaths from these strikes, while rolling the dice every week starts to accumulate the risk.

Putin’s views for Syria still a bit of mystery, if he has a real longterm plan. His response could be evidence in question if he was not unhappy that Israel was bombing Iran in Syria.

H. saved the Bolsheviks

Mind explaining this one?

H. saved the Bolsheviks

Mind explaining this one?

They could never have held on to power for as long as they did had he not attacked them.

I agree, I have had my debates with DFH (and perhaps some other commenters) on those issues. Maybe with iffen about Americans, too.

But you guys are carrying this too far.

They could never have held on to power for as long as they did had he not attacked them.

Why do you think so?

But you guys are carrying this too far.

Personally, I’d prefer if we all just agreed to drop the topic, it doesn’t seem to be leading to anything all that productive.

and are great in the hands of competent and well trained crews

Maybe there was a catastrophic decline when smoothie left, heck, he might have taken all the how-to manuals.

American systems make them more robust to the incompetence of their crews.

And some people claim that dumbing down is a bad thing.

Slightly OT but on the subject of Russian air tragedies.

Is there still an on-going investigation into the December 2016 Tupolev Tu-154 crash that killed 92 people, including some military choir?

The Wikipedia page doesn’t say. It only has preliminary analysis from the days immediately after the crash and mentions a May 2017 Kommersant report blaming pilot error. It was a big story at the time yet it has completely disappeared, at least, from non-Russian media.

the German invasion pushed the Bolsheviks out of power

but this attitude of acting like we should be grateful to them for doing things that benefit them and having to often assert their superiority, whether in moral matters or the petty details of British housing is grating to me

I don’t usually bring it up (at least not 9 times out of 10), I only respond to deranged anti-Anglo hatred and lies, which often have nothing to do with the topic at hand. The housing comment was in an open thread and was a joke.

Grave external threat. They were running on fumes by this time.

Israelis needs to be punished. Russia has been sooping up the s-200 systems, maybe it’s time to give them s-300. Israelis should pay next time they attack Syria.

BTW, what was the point of this attack on Latakia? To damage infrastructure in Assad’s home turf? Just petty, no military purpose. Down with the Zionists!

At least you are consistent: H. wasn’t the bad guy and Stalin wasn’t a Bolshevik.

H was both a German chauvinist *and* someone who realized how deadly a threat the Bolsheviks were to everyone (including the Russians).

Not attacking Idlib is wise. I think you’ve posted data on this blog demonstrating that social attitudes, iq, demographics etc. are all really really undesirable, even for somewhere as backward as Syria. Reintegrating it will mean that it’s going to be a future source of instability, not to mention a potential flashpoint and source of gas attack allegations. Simply drawing a defacto border around it and writing on the map “here be dragons” seems like the best solution. The SAA must be totally bled out by now.

i don’t know how likely this is but *if* the F16s were trying to make it look like the French ship was launching missiles to try and get Russia/Syria to fire on a NATO ship then you’d think at least some of the NATO captains in the vicinity would have figured it out and be pretty mad about it.

Putin’s response was strange to see now

Not if you remember how he invited Netanyahu as an honored guest on the May 9 parade at the same time as Israel released a video where they destroyed a Pantsir.

Putin wasn’t going to rant and rave, the Israelis are trying to exploit the turmoil in the US and a weakened Trump ahead of the midterms. I would guess something like S300 delivery will go ahead for now. In theory this now makes Western intervention less likely, too associated with the Zionist cause. Israelis are acting out of desperation and Russia should not fall in to the trap.

The Russian commentators will need to look into this in Russian language sources.

A riskier response would be blowing up some empty warehouses in Israel, while denying responsibility for it or blaming it on the Syrians.

This seems like reasonable analysis from the BBC.

Russia’s anger is real. But the question is, are the Russians attributing blame fairly? The charges are two-fold. Long-standing and up to now effective information-sharing broke down.

The Israeli Air Force has Russian-speaking air traffic controllers able to communicate with their Russian opposite numbers. But Moscow says they were informed of the Israeli raid with only one minute’s notice.

Secondly, Russia charges – more seriously – that the Israelis used the large radar signature of the Ilyushin turbo-prop to mask their own aircraft.

But the radar signatures of the relatively slow Ilyushin and four nimble F-16 jets are radically different.

Furthermore, the Syrian air defences should have known the Russian plane was in-bound, whatever the Israelis were doing.

There may be several contributory factors in this tragedy. Russia cannot publicly castigate its Syrian allies. In private things may be rather different.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-45563304

But the radar signatures of the relatively slow Ilyushin and four nimble F-16 jets are radically different.

Yes, but it’s not like it’s impossible to shoot it down instead of the F-16s by mistake.

ça doit faire vachement mal au cul.

Rappellez-vous de “La Liberté”.

then you’d think at least some of the NATO captains in the vicinity would have figured it out and be pretty mad about it

Yeah, they are probably discreetly throwing up into their handkerchieves.

Are you kidding me? WW1 and WW2 only happened because of the meddling of the Anglo.

And of course, as is typical of Anglos, they resorted to the cowardly divide and conquer tactics instead of getting their own hands dirty.

I just know that the MH-17 event was warmed up yesterday. Not sure whether the Russian dished good stuff on that or not or why it took them so long.

WW1 and WW2 only happened because of the meddling of the Anglo

Stop low-quality retarded trolling.

Mark Sleboda is learning to despise Putin like every honest Russian nationalist:

Putin: "Our response to downed plane will be additional security measures for our forces in Syria that everyone will notice."
Me: That is NOT an "adequate response". That is just what you should have done to protect our servicemen in the first place. 😠

— Mark Sleboda (@MarkSleboda1) September 18, 2018

Completely agree. Anglos are worse than Jews.

Their claim to fame is being devious and using divide and conquer tactics to defeat other countries.

Only when Anglos have guns and they are fighting people with sticks will the Anglo show a fighting spirit.

I guess one possibility, just Putin thinks there was no reason for Syrian S-200 to shoot down IL-20, in response to Israel’s F-16s.

One is a large and slow turboprop, the other small and fast jets – so it’s not clear why they would shoot a turboprop, since it doesn’t have a similar radar signature to fighter jets.

Are S-200 autonomous in the targeting phase?

Anglos were actually the worst possible outcome for the world. Its true that other countries would not have ruled benevolently, but Anglos pushed for open borders and cowardly divide and conquer tactics.

Events like this help with stuff this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-18/over-40-congress-members-send-letter-white-house-demanding-trump-seek-approval

Not at all:

a) Nusra/Qaeda/FSA could rally “public opinion” by staging gas attacks at any time and feeding the megaphone
b) US could throw tantrums in the UN and then perform NATO-enhanced action because of “Responsibility to Protect” (the Truman is apparently moving in, too?)
c) Turkey is happy with the status quo because Syria stays weak, Kurds stay weak. They seem to have influence with the Nusra/Qaeda so these are manageable, too. They sure hope there will be a piece of Syria for them to annex later in this game.
d) Israel is ok with the situation as they keep an active force in Syria that can be reactivated at any time, so they can look after Iranian forces.
e) Russia can pretend this is all an acceptable way of doing things.

Haha. Funny thought.

Actually, the world will never be unfucked until it gets rid of the Anglo problem.

Anglos were not hijacked by the banking mafia. They ARE the banking mafia.

And please stop with the whole savageness. Anglos are cowards and o ly get their hands dirty when they bomb goat herders or shoot up some spear chuckers.

Anglos are Jewish enablers. Other feed off of each other. Nice try Anglo trash. Fix your teeth and stop your grooming problem.

Please don’t feed Anonymous[309], if possible.

Target is determined and locked by the ground radar.

Operators on the ground acquire the target and fire towards it.

Missile’s sensor just tracks passively the target which was locked by ground operators.

So ground operator skill, and organization, to determine what target to shoot. Interface of S-200 is old, and obviously requires a lot of skill and training.

–

Even modern S-300 does not appear simple, once you see what the guys’ are operating (obviously very effective with and dependent on skilled operators).

Stalin just wanted power, he latched on to whatever means one could get that power. Real (((Bolsheviks))) were about more than just power, they were true believers in their ideology.

Worldwide Bolshevism or worldwide Nazism would have been worse than the current world.

But the wrong side won World War I.

the Ukrainian missile that shot down the airliner over the Black Sea in 2001 was apparently fired at a target decoy but when it missed the decoy it went after the airliner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

I think the difference is that after the downing of the Su-24 Russia was winning, and winning hard. There was very little Turkey (or NATO, or anyone else) was going to do about it (with Obama being more risk-averse than Trump, and his relationship with Netanyahu strained to the extreme), the Russians and Assad were going to slowly destroy the American/Israeli/Turkish/Saudi proxies in Syria.

Now the situation is different: with most of the rebel strongholds destroyed, and the fragile alliance with Turkey, it’s now difficult for Russia to gain further ground. Therefore, you cannot simply respond with the usual “well, they managed to down one airplane, but we’re winning the war” answer. Because that is only true if Idlib is destroyed, but that is likely going to push Turkey back into the NATO fold.

This is good on one hand (it means Russia now has much stronger hands – Turkey might be lost for the US as an ally, the Syrian war is almost fully won), but it’s also bad on the other hand – Russia’s lack of response now looks like weakness, and I’d argue looking weak is worse to Russia than an objective strength. If war breaks out with the US, or even with only Israel, it won’t matter how many Syrian provinces will be under Assad’s control. It might not even matter if Turkey will stay neutral in that. Realistically, it won’t be an ally.

So Russia cannot leave Syria without showing significant weakness. It cannot respond to Israeli or American strikes by destroying further jihadi groupings.

Therefore, now it now has the following options:

1) respond militarily against Israel or the US or other NATO members in theater; this is highly unappealing and risky
2) start shooting down Israeli (American, etc.) planes participating in strikes; risky, and highly unappealing, too
3) respond militarily elsewhere – most notably, Ukraine (I think occupying Ukraine would be a mistake – the population is hostile, so Russia would get bogged down without any big benefit; however, airstrikes on Ukraine’s blossoming military and military industry, or even fully destroying it before it could be strong enough to retaliate, might be an option; perhaps annexing a few border regions with friendlier population, if there’s any such region) (full disclosure: I don’t really like the idea from my own perspective, it’d obviously be bad for Hungary, but from a purely Russian perspective it might make sense to arrest and reverse the modernization and growth of Ukraine’s military, while also making good PR for Russian weapons and bad PR for Americans); this option contains some risks of its own (e.g. it can only be a response to an American, but not an Israeli attack; the perception might be of a separate aggression as opposed to a response to events in Syria)
4) no response (what it’s doing right now), but it risks a nuclear war later down the road (because the neocons will keep pushing against what they perceive to be Russian weakness)

Is there anything else?

Worldwide Bolshevism or worldwide Nazism would have been worse than the current world.

It’s possible that there’ll be no more countries with a majority white population by 2150. This would not be the case with worldwide Nazism (and probably not with worldwide Bolshevism). From a genetic interests viewpoint, these might be better than what will happen soon.

In my previous example, you have some brothers, and you have two alternate realities. In one, one of your brothers murders you and your other brothers and sisters, but then will have lots of descendants, so it could be considered good for the family as a whole. Or you can prevent your brother from murdering any of your other brothers or sisters, but then none of you will have descendants at all. Which is better for the family, long term? You might easily argue that the first one would be better, long term.

It should’ve self-destructed, but instead went hundreds of kilometers farther.

Needless to say, none of the four options look particularly appealing to Putin, who would really be happy with a Cold War Two, where he would have his own sphere of influence. But the Americans won’t let him have it – so he needs to make the Americans (and of course Israelis) respect him, so he needs to create a perception of a combination of strength and craziness, all that without blowing up himself and the world in a nuclear war.

Basically the big problem is neocon craziness and ideology, which doesn’t allow American diplomats and politicians think and talk in terms of interests (except those of America), spheres of influence (except perhaps for American allies, otherwise the whole world is considered an American sphere of influence), rules (except when it comes to America’s adversaries who should abide by them, but never America or its allies when acting with American permission), etc.

It must be noted that the Americans weren’t that crazy or ideologically driven during Cold War One.

yes, you’d think so – they might be lying about missing the decoy but if they’re not it implies the missile had some kind of backup targeting for such a situation and locked onto the airliner by itself.

if correct and people know about it then “hiding” behind a larger plane might not really be about hiding per se as the AA might still be able to see you – it might be more to do with making yourself too risky a target to shoot at in case the missile goes for the bigger plane instead.

Of course, that’s a big part of “hiding.” But it’s also possible to stay behind a bigger plane without being noticed, but of course it’s impossible if the enemy has multiple radars and air defense batteries at multiple locations.

The missile was designed to self-destruct within a certain distance, precisely to avoid shooting down friendly or neutral planes hundreds of kilometers away, but for some reason it didn’t work.

right but what are the odds it missed its target and then hit another plane 100 of km away by accident?

unless i’m missing something it seems to me they must have either targeted the wrong plane from the beginning or the missile had an independent tracking system which kicked in after it missed the decoy?

3) respond militarily elsewhere – most notably, Ukraine (I think occupying Ukraine would be a mistake – the population is hostile, so Russia would get bogged down without any big benefit; however, airstrikes on Ukraine’s blossoming military and military industry, or even fully destroying it before it could be strong enough to retaliate, might be an option; perhaps annexing a few border regions with friendlier population, if there’s any such region) (full disclosure: I don’t really like the idea from my own perspective, it’d obviously be bad for Hungary, but from a purely Russian perspective it might make sense to arrest and reverse the modernization and growth of Ukraine’s military, while also making good PR for Russian weapons and bad PR for Americans); this option contains some risks of its own (e.g. it can only be a response to an American, but not an Israeli attack; the perception might be of a separate aggression as opposed to a response to events in Syria)

I’m interested to hear what our Russian commenters think of this scenario. To my mind, Russia will be forced to start bombing, sooner rather than later, critical Ukrainian military infrastructure the way Israel is bombing Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Anything less would be negligence on Kremlin’s part.

The missile is not designed to fly to larger targets which were not locked originally. This would make it militarily useless. It’s designed to follow target (and track) which is locked by ground operators.

But it’s very old especially in terms of its interface (it is not a modern computer screen), which probably required a lot of training in the past. In a sophisticated air defense network, they would also receive information from lots of other sources than just their own radar.

Locking a target is not magic. The missile’s computer is also not particularly smart. For all sorts of reasons it might mistake a target several kilometers away for a nearby target. (In a very bad case, especially with an obsolete missile, the new, false target might even be hundreds of kilometers away, like with the missile in your example.) It’s not very smart, so it’ll “think” that it’s still pursuing its original target. (It won’t think anything at all, it’s just a shorthand. It’ll just behave as if it was still pursuing the original target, even though it isn’t.)

If all else is equal, more modern missiles will make such mistakes much less frequently than older missiles.

right but if a missile without an independent targeting system misses its target and flies in a straight line until it runs out of fuel what are the odds of it hitting another plane hundreds of km away?

although either way it may not be relevant to the current situation.

I don’t like that scenario much (though there are some nationalistic squabbles with Ukraine, so I wouldn’t be totally unhappy either), but anyway, from a purely Russian perspective, I think it makes sense.

It also needs to be done more openly, to build up “street cred.” Israel or the US never deny their illegal aggressions.

It’s possible that there’ll be no more countries with a majority white population by 2150

Very doubtful, because other than Africans, fertility rates are dropping among non-Europeans.

Moreover in this case it is not that none of us has descendants at all, rather that our descendants, while still existing, will simply be outnumbered by other peoples’ descendants. Or will be mixed with them so they don’t look a lot like us, while nevertheless still being our descendants.

If Nazis dominated the globe, there would be far fewer European people – tens of millions of Slavs would be gone; taking onto account them not having descendants, this would probably be over 200 million fewer Europeans in the 21st century than in our current reality. Would that price be worth it, to contain Arabs and Africans in their own homelands?

If Bolshevism took over, the death rates would be lower. But fertility would still decline in that oppressive grey reality , and Bolshevism loved the Third World so who knows how it would have been with immigration, wealth transfers, etc.

Depends on how extreme these strikes would be. Ukraine is not completely defenseless anymore. If it comes to complete destruction of Ukraine’s military – several large Russian cities and bases are within range of Ukrainian missiles, not to mention the possibility of all sorts of asymmetrical retaliation (if Russia were to bomb to death 10,000s of Ukrainian soldiers who can guarantee that a dirty bomb won’t erase central Moscow or St. Petersburg). I suspect that some among Russia’s Western “partners”, as Putin calls them, would not mind such an endgame.

i don’t think they should do anything in Ukraine cos the neocons don’t care about Ukraine. imo the only reason they made a coup was to grab the naval base and then offer to give it back in exchange for Russia ditching Syria.

i think they would be better off looking for ways to squeeze the financial assets of the US elite – tit for tat.

(longer term they should also be looking into creating a samizdat internet where Swedes can talk to Swedes without censorship and Germans can talk to Germans etc as this is largely an information war and the bad guys are trying to shut down all sources of information they don’t control.)

In relation to response, it’s not clear quite what their private position of the cause of this incident is.

We know two different public ones. So far Shoigu says publicly one thing, and Putin says publicly a different one. Shoigu says it’s Israel’s blame, and Putin says it’s not Israel’s blame.

Which of the two is what they actually think happened in the incident, and which is for public consumption? Or is the private position a synthesis of the two statements, or something different. This probably we can’t really know, but maybe will learn by watching what happens in the next year.

–
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As for Ukraine, Hungary, etc, – I don’t see your large connection to the topics. But then I do not read the kind of websites which want to place everything into a large narrative of superpower conflict.

Unlike Ukraine, which was outside of control and damage limitation – the Syria mission was conceived to be simple and cost-effective mission abroad. But it was promised to be short. As I remember, it was only bombing jihadists and becoming a more respected international partner.

A lot of this was following a law of diminishing returns. In the first year there was a huge rise in military prestige in that region, and demonstration of military technology. But since those opening months, there are diminishing returns.

So far, the numbers of dead are still very small by war standards , even including the Tu-154 crash. But the potential benefit of the conflict, also not seeming not large or exciting.

As for Israel’s position, obviously this is a miniature disaster as their operations over this area depend on Russian generosity and permission.

But it’s Yom Kippur in Israel today. And I think their offices don’t open until next Sunday (I could be wrong). So not much information will be released from them, until their holiday is over.

As for Syria’s position. This could either be good, or bad from their view, depending on whether privately they are seen as innocent for the shooting down, or blamed for shooting down. (Although in the end there is no utility in blaming them from Putin’s view).

The loss of the spy plane was awful. However, Putin is winning diplomatically in Syria overall.
And who knows if Erdogan might want out soon as his economy goes downhill.

Much the same goes for the US generally. I’d like to see an analysis as to whether there could be a sudden tipping point for dollar use globally as more nations escape US financial hegemony.

3) respond militarily elsewhere – most notably, Ukraine

In Ukraine, at a minimum Russia should do what it should have done years ago: Recognize the DLNR, and stop Kiev’s terror-shelling, either by allowing the DLNR to join Russia, or by airstrikes against Ukrainian artillery.

spheres of influence (except perhaps for American allies, otherwise the whole world is considered an American sphere of influence), rules (except when it comes to America’s adversaries who should abide by them, but never America or its allies when acting with American permission), etc.

Agree.

Yawn

Why didn’t you get into the comments on the Johnstone piece?

The US budget deficit is expected to be USD900bn this fiscal year, during a strong economic period. The deficit will explode during the next downturn, and the debt level is already elevated. As Goldman Suchs noted this is unprecedented during peace time, and the US is too politically dysfunctional and corrupted to stop it.

this is deranged.

surely if X can survive war, X can survive peacetime.

wartime tightening of the crews, circling of the wagons (if that’s the argument) is a plus for stability, but one could likewise argue that having all your sh** bombed and millions of your people killed is a huge, huge minus.

>running on fumes

no, they weren’t. all industrial indicators were going up. standards of living were going up. nor was there any crisis of legitimacy looming.

According to the OSCE there were 29 civilian deaths in the first 6 months of 2018 in Donbas (I assume mostly caused by Kiev’s forces, but not all). So about 2 per month. DNR and LNR according to ru-wiki have 3.6 million people combined.

The state of Connecticut has about the same population as DNR/LNR. There were 293 traffic fatalities in 2016. One is five times more likely to due in a car crash in Connecticut, as die by being shelled by Kiev forces in Donbas. Bosnia has about the same population as DNR/LNR. Traffic fatalities in 2017 were over 633 in Bosnia. So one is ten times more likely to due in a car crash in Bosnia, as die by being shelled by Kiev forces in Donbas.

You want Russia to openly go to war against Ukraine by launching airstrikes against its artillery positions (resulting on increased sanctions, and incurring Russian casualties also, as Ukraine does have air defenses, it is not ISIS) in order to stop what has become a rather low grade military conflict.

surely if X can survive war, X can survive peacetime.

ass-backwards

running on fumes

The supply of Stakhanovites was limited and had been exhausted.

ass-backwards

why?

“They could never have held on to power for as long as they did had he not attacked them.”

war=good for stability and political continuity.

The supply of Stakhanovites was limited and had been exhausted.

and war made that better that how?

how do you know they wouldn’t have held on to power for much longer (than 1992 – although I believe the Perestroika was a top-down thing and a culmination of what began in 1956), with all the sh** still intact and 30 million more people?

I think most level headed people (a very tiny minority these days) realize that the US is headed for disaster. The quandary is when. This is why I wonder about a coming tipping point for global use of the dollar.

Putin has an astonishing “godlike” attitude of patient determination. With only 10% of US defense expenditures, the challenge is incredible. He has no choice but to follow a Fabian strategy and hope to outlast the US. He is forced to avoid traps that could trigger WW3 while madness runs rampant in the West.

My assertion is simple. The Bolshevik/communist system fell. It would have fallen sooner had H not attacked the USSR.

I agree.

Now would be a great time for Russia to help Syria upgrade their anti-aircraft missile systems.

According to the OSCE there were 29 civilian deaths in the first 6 months of 2018 in Donbas (I assume mostly caused by Kiev’s forces, but not all). So about 2 per month. DNR and LNR according to ru-wiki have 3.6 million people combined.

It’s not just about the number dead (and injured), but the ongoing physical damage to buildings and infrastructure, the many thousands who have to regularly take shelter and live without power or water, or who have fled leaving their homes behind.

And failing to prevent Kiev from terrorizing and murdering ethnic Russians literally on its doorstep, endangers Russia by sending a message of weakness to the West.

You want Russia to openly go to war against Ukraine by launching airstrikes against its artillery positions (resulting on increased sanctions,

There isn’t much appetite in Europe for putting more sanctions on Russia, so it will probably take more to trigger them, than a brief action, limited to near the front line, which follows a spike in Ukrainian shelling such as that of Gorlovka earlier this year, and doesn’t result in any changes in territory. Russia can cite the precedent of NATO bombing to stop Serb shelling of civilians in Bosnia. And the USA will always find some excuse for more sanctions anyway.

Actual airstrikes may not even be necessary. Right now, Kiev is shelling Donbass civilians because it knows there is no cost to to doing so. If Russia recognizes the separatist territories and warns Kiev it will not tolerate continued aggression against them, Kiev may stop.

and incurring Russian casualties also, as Ukraine does have air defenses, it is not ISIS)

I doubt Ukraine would be able to shoot down any Russian planes. If they do, that’s at most a handful of casualties. This wouldn’t be a major air campaign deep inside Ukraine. Strikes would be limited to within 20 km or so of the DLNR border.

Russia declare war on Israel? Israel is full of Russians. Most Russian Mafia bosses hold Israeli citizenship. The Russian and Israeli power networks are completely intertwined. If you are an Israel-hater, you should not be so stupid as to expect Russia to be the white knight that will defeat your enemy. Actually, you should not be so stupid as to be an Israel-hater. Just saying.

so Hillary was attacking the USSR way back then also?

Doesn’t this assume that the Bolsheviks were more likely than not to come out of the Second World War alive?

If Bolshevism took over, the death rates would be lower. But fertility would still decline in that oppressive grey reality , and Bolshevism loved the Third World so who knows how it would have been with immigration, wealth transfers, etc.

It is hard to know how the Communist regimes would have reacted to things further in the future, but it should be noted that while they spent a lot of money on hopeless revolutionary regimes abroad there was very little permanent immigration to the USSR and its satellites and the popular opinion of Europeans would in this hypothetical future be a lot less positive towards immigration.

Well, Israel is full (20%) of jews who were born and raised in Russia, which is a far cry from “Russians.” Their identity and loyalty is typically not Russian but Jewish first.

I know a Russian Jew here in LA who hates, and I mean hates Russia and Russians — not just the user, which would be more understandable. She personally resents and takes pleasure in the misfortune of the Russian people. She’s the girlfriend of a friend, and very pleasant and sociable to me, but she just doesn’t identify with Russia to say the least. This, I’m gathering, is not atypical.

Conversely, do you think the average Russian has affection for, identifies with, wants to sacrifice to protect, Jews who used to live in Russia? Russians, please weigh in here.

On one hand, I’ve read that today’s Russians aren’t nearly as antiSemitic as they should be given who was so disproportionately in charge of the vicious parts of the USSR regime at the beginning and for much of the time thereafter. But I doubt they’d shrink in horror at the prospect of destroying the belligerent, disloyal wiseasses in Israel whose government just murdered fourteen Russians in syria.

So, what’s the logic there. Destroying Israel would eliminate many of the people who rip off, threaten, and terrorize regular Russian people, so Russians should be against it? Huh?

Seems like “killing two birds with one stone” to me.

If it’s doubtful that there will be no countries with a majority of people who are white Anglos or Europeans — even broadly construing white to include “mostly white” and broadly construing Europe — which country seems unlikely to be majority nonwhite 40 years from now?

England or the UK? Certainly not.
France? No way.
Germany? Changing fast, and pace of Change likely to be faster soon.
Sweden?
Netherlands? Belgium? Greece?

Canada is well on its way to being a mess of Chinese (five percent and rising, especially in BC but in several other provinces too), Indians and Punjabis and Pakistanis (four percent and rising, especially in BC), Filipinos (approaching three percent amid BOOMING growth), and a minority of whites. Outside BC, Toronto, and Montreal, Canada is still pretty white, but ALL the of the rapid net population growth nationally comes from nonwhites. ALL.

Australia looks to be headed for a terribly Chinese and Indian demographic future.

Perhaps some small Eastern European countries and perhaps Russia (though Russia has long been mixed, if predominantly white euro, different from the others). But that’s uncertain too.

It’s not just about the number dead (and injured), but the ongoing physical damage to buildings and infrastructure, the many thousands who have to regularly take shelter and live without power or water, or who have fled leaving their homes behind.

This damage seems to have mostly been done. Kiev isn’t expanding its area of operations and shelling “fresh” areas.

And failing to prevent Kiev from terrorizing and murdering ethnic Russians literally on its doorstep

Russian media may portray this as some sort of “Sarajevo” situation, but at this point it is pretty low grade.

Donbas (population 3.6 million) is on track to have 60 dead from shelling in 2018. Sarajevo (population 300,000) had 5,000 dead during the 4 year long siege, about 1, 250 a year.

Russia can cite the precedent of NATO bombing to stop Serb shelling of civilians in Bosnia

Situations aren’t comparable (see above).

Actual airstrikes may not even be necessary. Right now, Kiev is shelling Donbass civilians because it knows there is no cost to to doing so. If Russia recognizes the separatist territories and warns Kiev it will not tolerate continued aggression against them, Kiev may stop.

Very possible.

I doubt Ukraine would be able to shoot down any Russian planes.

It depends on where Ukraine’s S-300 systems are deployed. If near Donbas, they probably will. Has any modern air force gone against an S-300 system? Ukraine is closer to parity with Russia than Yugoslavia or Iraq were with NATO, and Yugoslavia and Iraq managed to down some planes.

So to stop what is now a very low grade war, Russia would risk more and worse sanctions (or limit the chances of ending those sanctions), lose some men and some expensive planes to take out some random artillery positions.

The Syrian and Russian air defenses are integrated, so even if an F-16 was hiding behind the IL-20, the AA operators should have known not to shoot near it.

Mimi is a bit too passionate and not a military expert, but I agree with her takes here 100%:

This is exactly wrong. As Martyanov explains, “ …fact of Russia not providing Syrian AD (and with a good reason) with own IFF technology and codes–things become much more clearer. This was confirmed today. Of course military counter-intelligence still has to do its due diligence but it increasingly begins to look more as FUBAR rather than some “special” operations. Most likely, in fact highly likely, IAF F-16s were detected and tracked (and even possibly locked on) by Syrian S-200 and they “masked” (the oldest trick in the book) by descending IL-20.”

which country seems unlikely to be majority nonwhite 40 years from now?

In 2060? Probably no European country will be majority non-white (if you consider Arabs or Turks to be non-white). Sweden may be the sole exception.

In the high-Muslim scenario, by 2050 the most Muslim country will be Sweden with 30%, followed by Germany, Austria, France and the UK with 20%. Add perhaps 10% to include non-Muslim Africans plus Asians (maybe 15% for the UK, with its Hindus and Caribbeans). Ten years after 2050 Sweden may be at the tipping point. The other high Muslim areas will still be over 50% European. Note that this is the highest Muslim scenario – numbers may very well be lower.

Perhaps some small Eastern European countries

Baltics, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czechia, Slovakia, Croatia, Ukraine, Ireland, Belarus, and Portugal are projected to be under 5% Muslim in 2050. I doubt there will be many non-Muslim Africans here either. That’s like 150 million people worth of European countries living in places with populations that are overwhelmingly European.

Furthermore, Spain will be at 7.4%, Greece 9.7%, Italy 14.1%, Finland and Netherlands 15%. These places won’t be European-minority ten years later.

Well, Israel is full (20%) of jews who were born and raised in Russia, which is a far cry from “Russians.” Their identity and loyalty is typically not Russian but Jewish first.

I know a Russian Jew here in LA who hates, and I mean hates Russia and Russians — not just the user, which would be more understandable. She personally resents and takes pleasure in the misfortune of the Russian people. She’s the girlfriend of a friend, and very pleasant and sociable to me, but she just doesn’t identify with Russia to say the least. This, I’m gathering, is not atypical.

Conversely, do you think the average Russian has affection for, identifies with, wants to sacrifice to protect, Jews who used to live in Russia? Russians, please weigh in here.

On one hand, I’ve read that today’s Russians aren’t nearly as antiSemitic as they should be given who was so disproportionately in charge of the vicious parts of the USSR regime at the beginning and for much of the time thereafter. But I doubt they’d shrink in horror at the prospect of destroying the belligerent, disloyal wiseasses in Israel whose government just murdered fourteen Russians in syria.

I know the kind you make mention of. Not all of them are like that. Keep in mind that there’re a good number of folks with Jewish and Russian Orthodox Christian backgrounds – many of them taking an eclectically measured stance.

At one of these threads, someone linked a prominent Russian TV talk show with Zhirinovsky railing against a Jewish MP in the Duma. The host Vladimir Solovyov chimed in noting his Jewish background, after which, Zhirinovsky said something along the lines of you’re okay, you stay put in Russia.

On the subject of Zhirinovsky:

http://www.ari-kagan.com/russians-zhirinovsky-1005.html

I know a New York based Belarusian Orthodox Jewish doctor whose father remains in Belarus, even though he can leave. This doctor who is pro-Israeli and not so pro-Russian said that he’d pay to see Zhirinovsky speak, adding that he’s amused by him.

On another point that you raise, Natan Sharansky said that Russia isn’t worse than Western European countries regarding anti-Jewish sentiment.

I know a Russian Jew here in LA who hates, and I mean hates Russia and Russians

Is it possible because she is in LA, in diaspora not in Israel? I would imagine that Russian Jews in Israel might be less Russophobic because they had opportunity to get to know Jews up close and in large quantities and the reality of this experience might be not as rosy as they expected while still back in Russia.

there was very little permanent immigration to the USSR and its satellites

Because there were much better places to be. Soviets had fences to keep people in. But if the whole West went Communist, this would no longer be the case. Particularly if the incoming ones were amenable to Communism, I don’t see why they wouldn’t be welcomed at the expense of native bourgeoisie.

But you are correct that it is hard to know what would have happened.

I know of one Jewish person, friend of a friend, from Russia who became antisemitic after living in Israel for a couple of years (she later moved to the USA).

A classic example of establishment realism:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/who-really-shot-down-russias-plane-31502?page=0%2C1\

Reminded of how the word illegal is used when mentioning Crimea’s reunification with Russia. On the other hand, some consider it okay for others to violate the airspace against the wishes of internationally recognized countries.

This story has really been downplayed. By the 6 PM news cycle of Monday 9/17, CNN, DW and the BBC were paying more attention to the Pussy Riot prankster who is in as German hospital.

A few years ago, a US mass media newscast had a segment on former Soviet Jews who left Israel for Germany. One of them saying that he didn’t like the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians. Israel Shamir isn’t alone.

Some years back, A NY area Zionist fanatic had denounced on radio former Soviet Jews for not being (as he put it Zionist enough. He was intellectually bitch slapped well by a caller who identified himself as part Jewish and Orthodox Christian.

Interesting. Note that Netanyahu’s frequent visits to Russia contrast from how US situated neocon and neolib Jews are prone to seeing Russia.

Deep down and without probably admitting it, this latest Israeli action in Syria is something that Russia hating Jews and some others likely desire.

Israel for Soviet Jews was never their first choice. When the US was beginning to pressure the USSR (Jackson-Vanik) Israel was always complaining because it was getting Jews of the second sort. At some point Israel lobbied that future operations of exodus from USSR/Russia Jews would be flown directly to Israel w/o having a chance of making up their mind while in Vienna.

I know many Jewish stories of departure form Israel for various reasons. They are well understood by the diaspora Jews who deep down do not like Israel and Israelis as they are different kind of Jews with a lack of sophistication, appreciation for high culture and so on and too pushy and arrogant.

Diaspora Jews are particularly ticked off by young Israelis who come to the US instead of staying in Israel. “We keep sending money and lobby on their behalf so they stay in Israel but rather live here in Los Angeles.”

How many Israeli citizens who were born in Israel live outside Israel? I am interest in native born Israelis not in the wanna be neophytes like Dmitri. I suspect that the number is really big and not talked about. Some say 500k in the US. I heard this number already 30 year ago.

Whatever is going on between Netanyahu and Putin is a mystery to me and thus it is very fascinating. I did not pay attention to Israel-Russia axis until 2013 and then 2015 when Putin decided to move to Syria. How come Netanyahu did not sabotage Putin’s move to Syria? Why did he OKed it? Just to piss off Obama? Or to suck Putin into a trap?

The Chabad angle is very interesting particularly when we saw it manifested in the Trump circle. We saw conservative Chabad Zionists instead of liberal Trostkyist Jews in their neoconservative incarnation. Still it was all about Israel and Jews but from a different angle.

I was very much taken by 2015 Putin UN speech. And since then I wanted to believe that he was a force of good in this world. But the strength of this force is as we are learning every few months is limited. After Netanyahu on May 9 in Moscow one may really wonder what is going on. Is Russia so entangled with Netanyahu that she can’t make Israel to stop bombing Syria? Is Israel so sure of its impunity that it will keep humiliating Russia every few days? Are they sure that Russia will not snap?Basically my question to Mr. Putin: WTF is going on, Mr. Putin? Do you have a plan?

What was said about that back in 2015:

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/10/09/answering-russia-critics-on-syria.html

Your end questions underscore the complexities.

At play is a dramatic difference of emphasis. The Sunni based terrorism of Al Qaeda (its successor names and all) and ISIS doesn’t pertain to Hezbollah and Iran. The latter two support the Russian and Syrian government position in Syria, while being at loggerheads with Israel. Al Qaeda and ISIS constitute definite threats to Syria and Russia. In comparison, some in Israel (and for that matter the US) see Iran and Hezbollah as greater threats. Conversely, the Israelis can’t feel to comfy with Al Qaeda and ISIS.

“Reserve the right to retaliate”… pshhh…. dune coons have been saying that since 1947. A motto for the weak.

Did you hear? Netanyahu was invited to the Federation Council to receive a 7 minute standing ovation. This is preceded by a 3 minute standing ovation as he walks to the podium.

Bigger-er and better-er than America!

It’s gonna be great.

the younger half of the population will be minority white much sooner – people who focus on the percentage of the total population are either deluding themselves or others.

we’re the only people who are both smart enough and savage enough to out play the bad guys

The twist: you are the bad guys.

This story was disappeared quickly on British telly.

Lots of evil people have H as the initial letter in their name.

The first problem is that map only contains Muslim populations, the mass immigration of Africans is a far bigger problem as not every African is a Muslim. Then there is the issue with the EU that is hell bent on pushing from ever more to enter, even wanting to punish the likes of Hungary for resisting it. Finally one needs to factor in miscegenation rates. With all of these variables it is safer to say that by 2060 all of Europe will be non white, I am not just talking about France or Germany, but Poland, Ukraine, Hungary will be majority non white in 2060.

then i guess we’ll just have to play the evil sidekick who helps the good guys out of self-interest. i don’t mind.

pretty significant imo

seems to me the two possibilities are:

1) Israeli jets were using the French ship as a human shield when they launched their missiles knowing the Syrians wouldn’t fire back – in which case the NATO captains in the region may be reluctantly colluding under orders.

or

2) same thing but trying to get the Syrians to attack a NATO ship to bring the US into the war – in which case you’d think with all those radars in the vicinity people are gonna notice and be mad.

or maybe

3) the neocons got the attack on Idbil postponed so they decided to take a break?

Counterfactual history is just that.

Suppose that H. had not seized power. That would have left the social democrats and communists in power in Germany. This would have made Russia’s brand of communism even more unattractive. If the German/Russian economic cooperation had continued, how would the capitalist Anglo world have responded? Serious support for civil war in Russia?

There’s no need for typical Utu excursion onto Chabad Lubavitch, connection between Jews and human sacrifice, or relation with Moon landing and Kennedy assassination.

Considering the response from the Kremlin.

It seems publicly they blamed Israel for the incident, while privately probably a large portion blamed on Syria.

Israel’s F-16s created the dangerous situation, while Syria for some incompetence shotdown turboprop in the other direction.

Compare to Turkey (which is a much more important ally than Israel). They shot down a plane with one death, and there was months of overt-top anger against Turkey, with media completely obsessed on the topic.

Whereas incident yesterday (with 15 deaths and actual tragedy) is already not much in the media today. Probably it could be considered politically inconvenient, if the story does not really fit together.

Browsing the news sites, I read today two articles on the subject, attacking Israel in the media today, from “court Jews” Satanovsky and Kedmi. From Eskin, it hasn’t been heard yet (I guess he will write something tomorrow when Yom Kippur is over).

This damage seems to have mostly been done. Kiev isn’t expanding its area of operations and shelling “fresh” areas.

This year, shelling has destroyed hundreds of homes in the DNR. Tens of thousands still live in areas that regularly experience heavy shelling. Residential areas in the center of Gorlovka were being heavily shelled as recently as 4 months ago.

Situations aren’t comparable (see above).

Not in the scale of casualties, but the principle is the same. And the duration/scale of the military intervention would be lesser as well.

It depends on where Ukraine’s S-300 systems are deployed.

I’m no expert on air defense hardware, but I’d be surprised if Russia couldn’t quickly overwhelm any S-300 systems deployed within threatening range.

Has any modern air force gone against an S-300 system? Ukraine is closer to parity with Russia than Yugoslavia or Iraq were with NATO, and Yugoslavia and Iraq managed to down some planes.

In the Kosovo conflict, NATO lost two planes (and had zero casualties) out of nearly 40,000 combat sorties. The operation I’m describing could last less than a day and involve only hundreds of sorties. So even if Ukraine’s defenses are 100 times more effective per sortie than Yugoslavia’s, losses would be similar.

So to stop what is now a very low grade war, Russia would risk more and worse sanctions (or limit the chances of ending those sanctions), lose some men and some expensive planes to take out some random artillery positions.

The purpose wouldn’t be just be to take out the artillery, but also to symbolically push back against the West, which could simply order Kiev to stop the shelling at any time, but doesn’t do so because it humiliates Russia. If any of the US-supplied Javelin systems are near the front line, it might be a good idea to take out those too.

Ideally though, no airstrikes would be necessary because the DLNR would be allowed to join Russia, in which case all Ukrainian attacks on that territory would immediately stop, for the same reason that Ukraine never attacks Crimea.

OT: Some potentially negative news for CRISPR.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06642-4

AnonFromTN, the article didn’t mention how often or how “important” such target sites are. Would you know?

That would have left the social democrats and communists in power in Germany. This would have made Russia’s brand of communism even more unattractive.

or…

combined russo-german bolshevik army invading western Europe

In Israel you can take a lot of photos of Russia flags, as well as Ukraine flags, hanging from peoples’ balconies. Some people wearing yarussia type clothing, although less common than seeing people wearing clothing with British and American flags.

On my phone I have photos of all this from when I was there most recently this year.

As for racism (including against Russian immigrants) it’s clearly going to be higher (more racist) in Israel than it is in Russia. But it’s still very “passive” discrimination. The racism level is not like in America. Probably it is more at a healthy level (small racism is not necessarily unhealthy). Everything about these topics exaggerated by media and people with various complicated agendas – if you remove this topic, then this website would not have anything to write about.

Israeli elite itself is very liberal, but this is far distant from the views of the average Israeli cattle.

Counterfactual history is just that.

But isn’t stating that the USSR would have fallen earlier without victory in the Great Patriotic War also counterfactual history?

That would have left the social democrats and communists in power in Germany. This would have made Russia’s brand of communism even more unattractive.

The Weimar Regime was a Centrist/Social Democratic regime and the distinction is important.

German Communists were able to retain a loyal core of 10% of the population even during the Weimar Regime’s ‘flower era’.

If the German/Russian economic cooperation had continued, how would the capitalist Anglo world have responded? Serious support for civil war in Russia?

How would this scenario realistically look like?

Wow. What is happening, Dmitri? Are you having a bad day? How did you get from these three sentences

The Chabad angle is very interesting particularly when we saw it manifested in the Trump circle. We saw conservative Chabad Zionists instead of liberal Trostkyist Jews in their neoconservative incarnation. Still it was all about Israel and Jews but from a different angle.

to this straw men and ad hominem nonsense

There’s no need for typical Utu excursion onto Chabad Lubavitch, connection between Jews and human sacrifice, or relation with Moon landing and Kennedy assassination.

I think you would agree that the increasing political role of Chabad Lubavitch that everybody can see in the US, Israel and Russia should be scrutinized. Furthermore any political influence of hermetic religious sect in ostensively transparent society should be of some concern.

Sure. The point is that by 2060, even under worst case scenario, every European country will still be majority-European, with the possible exception of Sweden. By 2100 it may be different but even then eastern and southern Europe will still be so. Not that the reality will be wonderful (it’s too bad major cities like Paris or London will be solidly non-European), but there is a lot of hysteria here.

Those maps were done in the midst of the migrant crisis, which has faded somewhat. So the worst-case scenario is not even that likely.

This damage seems to have mostly been done. Kiev isn’t expanding its area of operations and shelling “fresh” areas.

This year, shelling has destroyed hundreds of homes in the DNR. Tens of thousands still live in areas that regularly experience heavy shelling. Residential areas in the center of Gorlovka were being heavily shelled as recently as 4 months ago.

Most of these areas were abandoned years ago, otherwise the destruction of hundreds of buildings woulds not be accompanied by only 29 deaths.

Has any modern air force gone against an S-300 system? Ukraine is closer to parity with Russia than Yugoslavia or Iraq were with NATO, and Yugoslavia and Iraq managed to down some planes.

In the Kosovo conflict, NATO lost two planes (and had zero casualties) out of nearly 40,000 combat sorties. The operation I’m describing could last less than a day and involve only hundreds of sorties. So even if Ukraine’s defenses are 100 times more effective per sortie than Yugoslavia’s, losses would be similar.

Yugo system IIIRC was from the 1960s (but manned by very skilled people). Syria using S-200 (still inferior to Ukraine’s S-300 systems, plus manned by Syrians) took down an Israeli jet recently (confirmed) and allegedly took down two others. Presumably Russian actions would be most comparable or analogous to Israeli ones in Syria. Yet Ukraine’s air defenses are much better than Syria’s and the Russian air force, “pound for pound”, is probably worse than Israel’s. So a limited Israeli-style strike would be much riskier for Russia over Ukrainian skies.

Russia would probably have to first engage in large-scale cruise missile strikes across large areas of eastern Ukraine to take out these systems, before sending planes in to take out the artillery positions. At that point Ukraine would have nothing to lose and would probably launch its own missiles into Russian positions near the border (are Ukraine’s newest Neptune missiles deployed yet? Sevastopol would be within range of them). All of this, to stop what at this point is a very low grade conflict that is claiming an average of 2 civilian lives, none of whom even Russian citizens, per month.

Ideally though, no airstrikes would be necessary because the DLNR would be allowed to join Russia, in which case all Ukrainian attacks on that territory would immediately stop, for the same reason that Ukraine never attacks Crimea.

Probably the best solution not only for Donbas residents but also for Ukraine, which is a reason why the Russian state isn’t pushing for it.

The first problem is that map only contains Muslim populations, the mass immigration of Africans is a far bigger problem as not every African is a Muslim.

I took that into account when I stated to add another 10% for the non-African Muslims (the map already includes Somalis, northern Nigerians, Sudanese, etc.).

Then there is the issue with the EU that is hell bent on pushing from ever more to enter

Not really. It is pushing to spread them around but the tide has shifted.

Finally one needs to factor in miscegenation rates. With all of these variables it is safer to say that by 2060 all of Europe will be non white, I am not just talking about France or Germany, but Poland, Ukraine, Hungary will be majority non white in 2060

Lol no.

The point is that by 2060, even under worst case scenario, every European country will still be majority-European

except they won’t

70% of the total population but only 30% of the young population = white minority

the only percentage that matters is the percentage of the young

If there was any doubt left in any intelligent mind that the right-wing hipster pseudointellectual Anatoly Karlin is/always was a disinfo agent and psy-ops operative working for the Anglo-Zionist side and against the Russian state and its allies, the title and content of this blog post should dispel that doubt for good. In a post supposedly dealing with the shooting down of a Russian military plane directly caused by Israeli actions and most probably planned carefully in advance by them, there isn’t a SINGLE MENTION of Israeli culpability in the incident – instead it’s “Syria shot down the Russian plane”, as if it was an ordinary friendly fire incident due to incompetence, or as if the Syrians shot it down intentionally.

The Russian plane was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft missiles because Israeli jets that were carrying out unprovoked aggression against Syria by bombing Syrian coastal installations near the Russian base in Latakia from the sea, DELIBERATELY HID BEHIND the larger radar signature of the unsuspecting and un-forewarned, bigger and slower Russian military plane which was flying in the vicinity, causing the defensive Syrian missiles to mistakenly hit the Russian plane instead. The Israelis knew what they were doing – they DELIBERATELY put the Russian plane between themselves and the Syrian anti-aircraft batteries, EXACTLY in the same manner as an armed robber hastily grabbing a human shield and putting him in between himself and the bullets from a homeowner’s gun. It is premeditated and deliberate murder of 15 non-hostile Russian servicemen by the Israeli criminals – as clearly stated yesterday by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who put the blame squarely on the Israelis. It is a heinous action on par with the USS Liberty incident of 1967 – but you wouldn’t know that from reading the treacherous Anatoly Karlin’s disingenuous blog post.

Obviously, Karlin is either a long-trained subversive operative sent to Russia with a purpose and agenda; or he has fallen in line with and become a stooge of the treasonous pro-Anglo Zionist Fifth Column and liberasts in Russia (notice how he never criticizes them in his writings anymore). Anybody who still reads this guy and takes him seriously as an “objective commentator” or a “Russian nationalist”, is an idiot.

Not really. It is pushing to spread them around but the tide has shifted.

google “does europe need more immigrants” and you’ll get scores of msm articles saying yes – and in unlimited numbers

one needs to factor in miscegenation rates

a lot of people don’t understand how much anti-white violence (especially sexual related violence) there is in and around white minority schools (cos teens are effectively chimps)

so white minoritisation among the young + integrated schools + teen gang violence greatly speeds up the rate of white extinction once the tipping point is reached in the schools

If there was any doubt left in any intelligent mind that the right-wing hipster pseudointellectual Anatoly Karlin is/always was a disinfo agent and psy-ops operative working for the Anglo-Zionist side and against the Russian state and its allies, the title and content of this blog post should dispel that doubt for good

Sounds like you should add this to his RationalWiki entry.

I expect your “associative” thought process, so we should be talking about Kennedy within a few posts.

I don’t really see relation of Chabad to shooting down of Il-20.

Kremlin finds them useful decoration in Russian Federation. Some kind of simpleton Jews which wear costumes and refuse to sit next to women in the plane.

And add the same description to Putin, by this “logic”.

70% of the total population but only 30% of the young population = white minority

Not in 2060. Keep in mind that non-Sub-Saharan African Muslim fertility rates are collapsing. By 2050 if not sooner they probably will have converged with European native levels. So by then, young % wouldn’t be very much different from overall percentage. So 70% of total population European might be 60% or 55% of young population (factoring in sub-Saharan Africans).

And note that “Radical Center” claimed that all of Europe would be gone in 40 years. But eastern and southern Europe wouldn’t even be close. Spain – 7% Muslim in 2050. So maybe young would be 10% Muslim.

the only percentage that matters is the percentage of the young

Sure, but then use the right year.

google “does europe need more immigrants” and you’ll get scores of msm articles saying yes – and in unlimited numbers

Articles written when? Politicians and voters’ will count, and immigration has indeed been scaled back now. You haven’t noticed?

Migrants peaked in 2015:

Keep in mind that non-Sub-Saharan African Muslim fertility rates are collapsing.

dishonest straw man – the relevant metric is not the fertility rate of their source region but the fertility rate of first generation immigrants which will always be higher than the TFR of their source region cos of their age distribution (mostly 18-30).

plus

non-Sub-Saharan African Muslim

is enough to do the job.

so only 705,000 fighting age men every year – cool

That’s naive, the EU’s political establishment is hell-bent on facilitating mass immigration; the leader of the “conservative” EVP group in the European parliament Manfred Weber (from the Bavarian CSU, just in case anybody still had illusions about them) just recently spoke of the need for large-scale resettlement of Africans and that Europe couldn’t wall itself off against Africa’s misery; and he’s a likely successor to president of the European commission Juncker after the EU elections next year.
There’s also the UN global compact for migration, which is set to be signed, with almost no public discussion, by most European countries:
https://www.iom.int/global-compact-migration
It’s true that there has been some pushback in a few European countries, most notably Italy, and of course by the Visegrad group. But the situation is still basically unchanged in European core countries. In Germany there are still about 200 000 new asylum seekers every year which only looks not that much when compared to 2015/16. Record levels of immigration by historical standards have become normalized. And Merkel’s government shows again and again that they want it that way. They’ve now negotiated a deal with Italy: Italy is to take back “refugees” from Germany who already had applied for asylum in Italy before coming to Germany…but for every such “refugee”, Germany will take in one of the new African arrivals who are barred from landing in Italy.
Unless there’s a drastic change in political elites (which looks unlikely in much of Western/Northern Europe given the cowardly voting behaviour of large parts of the population), mass migration will continue and probably even escalate.

Welcome back, German_Reader. We missed you.

the relevant metric is not the fertility rate of their source region but the fertility rate of first generation immigrants which will always be higher than the TFR of their source region cos of their age distribution (mostly 18-30).

You are confusing birth rate with TFR. TFR is specifically number of children expected to be born to women in their child-bearing years. Since it is dropping with each generation, those who are 18-30 might be expected to have lower TFRs than older ones from the same country.

I quickly googled TFR of immigrants in Germany. From 1991 to 2010 TFR of German women increased from 1.26 to 1.36. TFR of non-German women decreased from 2.04 to 1.61. The 2015 flood produced another wave of higher TFR people, but its TFR will also decline.

I didn’t say it was good or cool, I was simply contradicting the hysteria that results in wild claims like European minority in every European country by 2060.

The point is that the massive 2015 wave did not last and the numbers have been reduced dramatically, even though they are not at near zero as they should be. So the “high migration” scenario is unlikely.

Syria using S-200 (still inferior to Ukraine’s S-300 systems, plus manned by Syrians)

S-200 recently upgraded by Russia. And despite average IQ differences in the general population, I don’t think its safe to assume that Ukrainian officers are currently much more competent than their Syrian counterparts.

and the Russian air force, “pound for pound”, is probably worse than Israel’s.

Not sure this is true. The RuAF has performed extremely well in Syria, with results far exceeding what was widely predicted by experts when the intervention began. Whereas Israel has blamed the loss of its F-16 to Syrian air defense on pilot incompetence.

Russia would probably have to first engage in large-scale cruise missile strikes across large areas of eastern Ukraine to take out these systems, before sending planes in to take out the artillery positions. At that point Ukraine would have nothing to lose and would probably launch its own missiles into Russian positions near the border (are Ukraine’s newest Neptune missiles deployed yet? Sevastopol would be within range of them).

What would Ukraine gain by doing this, except more punishment? Russia has air defense systems of its own, which are a lot better than Ukraine’s. So there would be no guarantee of any damage to Russia, but Russian retaliation would be guaranteed. If Ukraine did manage to kill some Russian soldiers, Russia would just hit back even harder. And if you mean Ukraine should target the city of Sevastopol, that would be completely nuts from a PR standpoint.

Why are you obsessed with Kennedy? You mentioned him twice. I think you should control your own associative process. But if you want talk about Kennedy and whether there is a circumstantial evidence that Mossad could have something to do with his assassination we can.

Obviously Chabad had nothing to do with what happened to Il-20. But we must understand why Putin decided to intervene in Syria. W/o the 2015 decision we would not be talking about the Il-20.

Why Netanyahu in 2015 did not throw a fit or did not sabotage Putin earlier in Syria? What is really the objective of Russia in Syria. Was it really to prop up Assad’s regime? It is not out of question that Chabad had something to do with Putin and Netanyahu bromance in 2015/16, that Chabad facilitated communication between Putin and Netanyahu in 2015 that lead to high risk decision by Putin to intervene in Syria. If we can figure out what were the parameters that Putin and Netanyahu agreed on and what mutual promises they made to each other we may understand current situation including the shooting down of Il-20.

I suspect that you are reacting to the phrase ‘the wanna be neophytes like Dmitri’ from my preceding comment which upset you. And now after your irrational and out of proportion reaction to my mentioning Chabad I begin to toy with an idea that you are associated with them. This perhaps could explain you being so well travelled though your interests in luxuries of life and expensive tastes speak against it. I need to check out whether Chabad employs civilians who like to dress well and wear expensive shoes for some special missions.

Since it is dropping with each generation, those who are 18-30 might be expected to have lower TFRs than older ones from the same country.

i’ll put it another way – if a million women aged 18-30 from country A immigrate to country B then they’ll be having their babies in country A and not country B.

From 1991 to 2010 TFR of German women increased from 1.26 to 1.36.

dishonest strawman: German-born != German.

The 2015 flood produced another wave of higher TFR people, but its TFR will also decline.

right – generally the 1st generation have lots of kids and the 2nd+ generations have fewer – which wouldn’t be another dishonest straw man if there wasn’t a constant stream of 1st generation immigrants.

I was simply

engaged in stealth tribal warfare.