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Currently there are a bunch of Maidan/Crimea related five year anniversaries that have come up, or will soon come up. I will try to poast about them as time permits.

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• Tags: Open Thread, Ukraine 
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  1. I’m not disputing that Eurovision is for faggots and that Poland has for centuries been a failed country cursed by it’s elites with the homosexuality issue on the rise being typical for it………but how can you not put the ukrop eurovision farce in this list?

    These trivial pseudo-culture matters if anything do more than most to emphasis what a fake and failed state and ‘culture’ Ukraine is.

    Crimean twins, performers who are nothing without Russian demand ( because same culture), ukrop banderatards making even more stupid decisions, hypocrisy…where to start?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    how can you not put the ukrop eurovision farce in this list?
     
    This is what he wrote:

    Paul Robinson: The Ukraine bans its own Eurovision candidate ,exits contest, because she wouldn’t parrot Kiev’s propaganda.
     
  2. @Gerard2
    I'm not disputing that Eurovision is for faggots and that Poland has for centuries been a failed country cursed by it's elites with the homosexuality issue on the rise being typical for it.........but how can you not put the ukrop eurovision farce in this list?

    These trivial pseudo-culture matters if anything do more than most to emphasis what a fake and failed state and 'culture' Ukraine is.

    Crimean twins, performers who are nothing without Russian demand ( because same culture), ukrop banderatards making even more stupid decisions, hypocrisy...where to start?

    how can you not put the ukrop eurovision farce in this list?

    This is what he wrote:

    Paul Robinson: The Ukraine bans its own Eurovision candidate ,exits contest, because she wouldn’t parrot Kiev’s propaganda.

    • Replies: @Gerard2

    This is what he wrote:

    Paul Robinson: The Ukraine bans its own Eurovision candidate ,exits contest, because she wouldn’t parrot Kiev’s propaganda.
     
    I'm a natural raconteur...these things can occasionally happen
  3. Mr. Unz should probably assign more slots to Mr. Karlin – at least one more.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Disagree: utu
    • Replies: @Yevardian
    It would be an improvement on Phillip Giraldi's endless one note rants.
  4. “Zelensky and Poroshenko will make it into the second round; at that point, Zelensky should crush Poroshenko, short of Poroshenko’s approval rating soaring and/or massive abuse of the “administrative resource.””

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception. In any case, regardless of who wins, the end-game is approaching. The status quo has been frozen waiting for the elections. In the meantime some things have been established:
    – Ukraine will neither prosper as part of EU, nor will it collapse (no big surprise there)
    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
    – Europe will not start a war with Russia on Kiev’s behalf.
    – Time is on Russia’s side.

    Kiev can try one more desperate move, but at this point they are mostly just pissing off everybody. This has the Saakasvilli-Georgia scenario written all over it. Or they can merge with Poland, become a single state and achieve their European dreams that way.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don't know - the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine's incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more "practical" after Saakashvili's ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians' ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don't know how exactly time is on Russia's side.
    , @AP

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception
     
    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn't doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I'd guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
     
    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
     
    Russian Wiki says nord stream 2 comes online in January 2020, not 2019.

    Exports are up over last year. GDP grew 3.4% in 2018, but growth is predicted to slow to 2.5% in 2019. So ongoing growth.
  5. @Beckow

    "Zelensky and Poroshenko will make it into the second round; at that point, Zelensky should crush Poroshenko, short of Poroshenko’s approval rating soaring and/or massive abuse of the “administrative resource.”"
     
    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception. In any case, regardless of who wins, the end-game is approaching. The status quo has been frozen waiting for the elections. In the meantime some things have been established:
    - Ukraine will neither prosper as part of EU, nor will it collapse (no big surprise there)
    - The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas - if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
    - Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
    - Europe will not start a war with Russia on Kiev's behalf.
    - Time is on Russia's side.

    Kiev can try one more desperate move, but at this point they are mostly just pissing off everybody. This has the Saakasvilli-Georgia scenario written all over it. Or they can merge with Poland, become a single state and achieve their European dreams that way.

    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don’t know – the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine’s incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more “practical” after Saakashvili’s ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians’ ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don’t know how exactly time is on Russia’s side.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    I wonder if Russophobia in the US is going to increase even more in the event that Russia will outright annex Belarus (which I suspect is unlikely, but which I am also unwilling to completely rule out as a possibility).

    Also, I wonder if Russophobes in the US are going to significantly deepen US-Kazakhstan relations in an attempt to secure Russia's soft underbelly. After all, Russophobes might already feel that Russia is encircled on three sides (by NATO in the west, north, and east--combined with US ally Japan). Encircling Russia on its southern flank would result in the encirclement of Russia being much more complete--though Russia would still have a lifeline to China in such a scenario.
    , @Beckow
    Pro-Atlantic orientation by itself means nothing. If there are specific things that get done - Nato or EU membership, or bases - then I would agree with you. But 'orientation' with no results is like a young girl pining after Brad Pitt, it has no actionable value. All it does is delays her life.

    Russophobia has a polarising effect, as do most irrational emotions. There will be more of it in 2020's, and there will also be a backlash against it. Then it will either blow up as all demonisation manias do - if one's enemy is literally the 'devil' there can be no constraints. Or it will end in an intra-West conflict between the two sides (of course blamed on Russia).

    In any case, there isn't much Russia can do about it. If you think that without Ukraine there would be less Russophobia, you haven't met the morons pushing it. At this point large portions of Western elites desire evil, white enemies - there are no other good candidates than Russia. If Russia collapses tomorrow and distributes all its riches among the Western elites, it won't make one iota of difference - they will still hate all things Russian, except they will also again show contempt. Hatred is not something that one can negotiate with, it has to burn out on its own.

    , @Mr. Hack

    Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine’s incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.
     
    So what, in your opinion, would Ukraine have to give up in order to restore full economic ties? Another total about face in Ukraine's political orientation seems fraught with more uncertainty and bumps in the road? It's clear that inclusion in a Russian dominated CIS is not in the cards. An acquiescence to Russia's clumsy absorption of Crimea by Ukraine seems incomprehensible. Russia could have reabsorbed Crimea in a much more sanitized version, instead it chose to do so in a manner much more reminiscent to the Sudetenland one - resulting as the cornerstone for all of the sanctions piled up against it around the world.
    , @Anonymous
    You are assuming the West maintains its economic lead and doesn't collapse.

    If the West cannot dole out aid and economic benefits, what good is it to ally with them?

    Meanwhile Russia through Eurasia will become much more powerful economically.
    , @melanf

    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia
     
    There are two examples - Moldova (from which Transnistria separated during the mini-war in the 90s) and Georgia (from which Abkhazia and North Ossetia separated during a really brutal war in the 90s). Georgia (unlike Ukraine) faced a real ethnic conflict (and suffered a complete defeat in it) - more than 200,000 Georgians were expelled from Abkhazia (relative to the entire population - a huge figure comparable to the expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe after world war 2). I cannot imagine what factors can make the political evolution of Ukraine different from the evolution of Georgia and Moldova.
  6. The anti-immigrant governments of eastern Europe compete for the growing stream of Ukrainian emigre workers.

    This is a very telling headline by Bloomberg, clearly it is a contradiction if one reads it without any context. Immigration pretty much means non whites, the left gets it as usual, the cuck right repeats its stupid “I just don’t want illegal immigration” or “its about the culture” mantras.

  7. AP says:
    @Beckow

    "Zelensky and Poroshenko will make it into the second round; at that point, Zelensky should crush Poroshenko, short of Poroshenko’s approval rating soaring and/or massive abuse of the “administrative resource.”"
     
    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception. In any case, regardless of who wins, the end-game is approaching. The status quo has been frozen waiting for the elections. In the meantime some things have been established:
    - Ukraine will neither prosper as part of EU, nor will it collapse (no big surprise there)
    - The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas - if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
    - Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
    - Europe will not start a war with Russia on Kiev's behalf.
    - Time is on Russia's side.

    Kiev can try one more desperate move, but at this point they are mostly just pissing off everybody. This has the Saakasvilli-Georgia scenario written all over it. Or they can merge with Poland, become a single state and achieve their European dreams that way.

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception

    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn’t doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I’d guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win

    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.

    Russian Wiki says nord stream 2 comes online in January 2020, not 2019.

    Exports are up over last year. GDP grew 3.4% in 2018, but growth is predicted to slow to 2.5% in 2019. So ongoing growth.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn’t doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I’d guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.
     

    Given Ukraine's poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you're supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn't much of an accomplishment), I really wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky wins. I mean, when your mainstream politicians have consistently failed to deliver for a couple of decades, you might as well try something new. Heck, I myself would probably vote for Zelensky if I had to choose between him and Poroshenko in the second round and if I was actually a Ukrainian citizen (I'm not).

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania--thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky's victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.


    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.
     
    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though. If one subscribes to such a view, then the mistake would not have been so much in having the Donbass rebel as in having Russia refuse to annex the Donbass afterwards.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    There is of course talk that Zelensky is sponsored by Kolomoysky. Which would be interesting, since Kolomoysky and Tymoshenko were pretty tight themselves.

    Both dislike Poroshenko.

    I haven't been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we're now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.

    @ Mr. XYZ,

    I think Nazarbayev is too cautious to play such games. Though he is getting old, and his successors, of course, might not be.
    , @Beckow

    ...The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine
     
    It is not about what we want, but what we will settle for. The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating, the purchasing power has declined since 2014, the exports are below 2014, there is no way this can be described as a success.

    North Stream 2 - whether in 2019 or 2020 - will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.

    Porosheno has no place to turn if he wins. Any other possible winner (Timoshenko?) would sooner or later reach out to Russia to negotiate a compromise. The problem is that the terms in 2018 would had been better than in 2020. The old adage that art of living is in selling your horse before it dies applies here. Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.

    , @Jon0815

    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.
     
    It's a reminder of how bad it is to defy Kiev and not get annexed, or at least recognized, by Russia afterward.

    And even that is only true as long as the DLNR remains less wealthy than the eastern regions which did not rebel. Which may not be too long, if Ukraine continues to neglect the east, while Russia continues to subsidize the DLNR.

    Unfortunately, we don't yet have any GDP statistics from the DLNR, but the anecdotal evidence indicates continued economic recovery. For example, it was just reported that sales by the DNR's metallurgical enterprises rose from 51 billion rubles in 2016 to 102 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) in 2018. And in January the DNR government endorsed the first annual budget in its history: Previously, the economic situation had been too precarious to budget for more than three months at a time (although neither income or expenditures are made public "due to the martial law").
  8. Can somebody explain why Czechia has such high fertility relative to the rest of the V4?

    They have a TFR of 1.7 (and climbing), and while the others have made great strides compared to 10 years ago, they seem to be plateauing around 1.5.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    AK: UrbaneFrancoOntarian, there's a special thread for this: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/european-native-vs-immigrant-fertility-rates/



    https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7857/33361087408_3046c754e8_o.png
  9. @UrbaneFrancoOntarian
    Can somebody explain why Czechia has such high fertility relative to the rest of the V4?

    They have a TFR of 1.7 (and climbing), and while the others have made great strides compared to 10 years ago, they seem to be plateauing around 1.5.

    AK: UrbaneFrancoOntarian, there’s a special thread for this: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/european-native-vs-immigrant-fertility-rates/

    [MORE]

  10. Found a music video which people here will surely enjoy:

    • Replies: @songbird
    You know what's funny? It seems to be geoblocked in the US. Though just the video. There's a slideshow - maybe the exact same thing.

    It would be pretty interesting if someone make a study of general African culture to figure out how representative that is, for instance in Nollywood. Too bad we don't have any serious news organizations with resources. But I imagine it is probably pretty representative. I wonder where it is on the charts, if they have them.
  11. @AP

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception
     
    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn't doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I'd guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
     
    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
     
    Russian Wiki says nord stream 2 comes online in January 2020, not 2019.

    Exports are up over last year. GDP grew 3.4% in 2018, but growth is predicted to slow to 2.5% in 2019. So ongoing growth.

    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn’t doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I’d guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment), I really wouldn’t be surprised if Zelensky wins. I mean, when your mainstream politicians have consistently failed to deliver for a couple of decades, you might as well try something new. Heck, I myself would probably vote for Zelensky if I had to choose between him and Poroshenko in the second round and if I was actually a Ukrainian citizen (I’m not).

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania–thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky’s victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.

    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though. If one subscribes to such a view, then the mistake would not have been so much in having the Donbass rebel as in having Russia refuse to annex the Donbass afterwards.

    • Replies: @AP

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment)
     
    Well, it's about 4% growth per capita.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania–thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky’s victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.
     
    Zelensky isn't even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won't result in the presidency, but it's not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.
    , @Jon0815

    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though.
     
    They'd probably also have been in much better shape if the rest of the east had joined Donbass in rebellion. That's why I have no sympathy for the eastern regions that remained loyal to Kiev: They chose to side with a regime that despises them, leaving the DLNR to face military assault and economic blockade alone, so they deserve everything they get as a consequence.
    , @Gerard2

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment), I
     
    Why do you have to even remotely take as plausible this fantasist spamtroll fucktards obvious lies?

    " the west is faring better than the east " is simply a brazen, retarded scumbag lie.

    The west is the poorest region of the country, the least populated...and the most that has been susceptible to migration into Poland and the EU ( and Russia in addition)

    Lvov has become the epicentre of that region, Ternopil is slightly improved...but we are talking in terms of shades of shit here

    Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, even Donetsk with it's war ravaged economy are far richer. Lvov itself is closer to war-ravaged Lugansk in living standards...then it is to Dnepropetrovsk ( a Russian/Soviet city in every sense of the term), Donetsk,Odessa. Lvov earn about as much as in Kharkov ...except Kharkov is about amillion times more important to the economy( and even fake national idea) of Ukropia, has more people and emits far more cultural and business value into Ukropia, more western goods, lesser energy costs and larger black market

    These areas, despite their lack of proximity to the EU, ironically receive far, far more high-end western goods than Lvov

    It's most likely that this sack of shit is insiduously, like the vermin it is including Kiev and Odessa it's it's fake point about the "west" in order to make a total lie of a point

    Lvov, is the "richest" in the west.....with a wage on average about 10% less than the WHOLE AVERAGE in Ukropia...a state with tan African economy. It's about the 8th ( "up" from 12th) in terms of highest wages in the country - and the most of rest of the west is near the bottom.

    It's most likely that this excrement is merely taking the wage and not adjusting for inflation..in order to make a lie of a point
  12. @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don't know - the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine's incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more "practical" after Saakashvili's ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians' ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don't know how exactly time is on Russia's side.

    I wonder if Russophobia in the US is going to increase even more in the event that Russia will outright annex Belarus (which I suspect is unlikely, but which I am also unwilling to completely rule out as a possibility).

    Also, I wonder if Russophobes in the US are going to significantly deepen US-Kazakhstan relations in an attempt to secure Russia’s soft underbelly. After all, Russophobes might already feel that Russia is encircled on three sides (by NATO in the west, north, and east–combined with US ally Japan). Encircling Russia on its southern flank would result in the encirclement of Russia being much more complete–though Russia would still have a lifeline to China in such a scenario.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    A more likely scenario:

    https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-russia-won-t-swallow-belarus-further-integration/29797813.html

    Dunno about 98% of Belarusians being opposed to Belarus becoming a part of the Russian Federation. If that were to happen, Belarus would probably have a loose arrangement, which would see some noticeable autonomy.
  13. @AP

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception
     
    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn't doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I'd guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
     
    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
     
    Russian Wiki says nord stream 2 comes online in January 2020, not 2019.

    Exports are up over last year. GDP grew 3.4% in 2018, but growth is predicted to slow to 2.5% in 2019. So ongoing growth.

    There is of course talk that Zelensky is sponsored by Kolomoysky. Which would be interesting, since Kolomoysky and Tymoshenko were pretty tight themselves.

    Both dislike Poroshenko.

    I haven’t been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we’re now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.

    @ Mr. XYZ,

    I think Nazarbayev is too cautious to play such games. Though he is getting old, and his successors, of course, might not be.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    I haven’t been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we’re now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.
     
    If two candidates make it to a runoff and one of the candidates subsequently drops out, would that mean that the other candidate would win by default?

    If Zelensky actually tries such a move, I suspect that the backlash to this from his supporters is going to be extreme.

    I think Nazarbayev is too cautious to play such games. Though he is getting old, and his successors, of course, might not be.
     
    Yeah, that's what I also think.
    , @AP

    There is of course talk that Zelensky is sponsored by Kolomoysky. Which would be interesting, since Kolomoysky and Tymoshenko were pretty tight themselves.

    Both dislike Poroshenko.
     
    Correct.

    I haven’t been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we’re now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.
     
    Kolomoyski follows his own interests though he is allied with Tymoshenko. Given that both the Zelensky and the Tymoshenko votes are anti-Poroshenko votes*, it would have seemed obvious that he would be taking some votes from her. The plan would have been to knock Poroshenko into 3rd place which both Tymoshenko and Kolomoyski could live with.

    In the second round Zelensky's deficiencies will become more apparent. He still has a chance due to a lot of people being fed up with Poroshenko's corruption. He will have to get young people to vote for him, and Easterners to vote for him, without alienating both groups (the natioinalists won't vote for him). If Tymoshenko urges her people to vote for him he may well win.

    *Their electorates are different. Old non-pro-Soviet people prefer Tymoshenko (the old Sovoks vote for the Opposition bloc) - she is popular with grandmothers from Kiev; Zelensky gets young voters from everywhere in the country, and those from the East who dislike Poroshenko but don't want to vote for the Opposition Bloc.
    , @Gerard2

    I haven’t been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win?
     
    If Arnold Schwarzenegger became Governor of a place that Ameritards like to remind "has an economy bigger than...insert European country" ( California)
    then why can't Zelensky?.... who has produced some excellent politicized comedy in the last few years
  14. @German_reader
    Found a music video which people here will surely enjoy:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ui4eKnA2RlM

    You know what’s funny? It seems to be geoblocked in the US. Though just the video. There’s a slideshow – maybe the exact same thing.

    It would be pretty interesting if someone make a study of general African culture to figure out how representative that is, for instance in Nollywood. Too bad we don’t have any serious news organizations with resources. But I imagine it is probably pretty representative. I wonder where it is on the charts, if they have them.

    • Replies: @German_reader

    It would be pretty interesting if someone make a study of general African culture to figure out how representative that is
     
    I suppose the general sentiment must be pretty widespread, iirc there are surveys showing that huge numbers of Africans would like to emigrate.

    I wonder where it is on the charts, if they have them.
     
    No idea, but the singer is supposedly one of Africa's most influential reggae musicians.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiken_Jah_Fakoly

    Tiken Jah Fakoly plays music "to wake up the consciences". His music speaks about the many injustices done to the people of his country and Africans in general, as well as inciting calls for pan-Africanism and an African economic, political and cultural resurgence. As such, many African listeners feel a deep affinity with his lyrics as Fakoly speaks for oppressed people.
     
  15. @Anatoly Karlin
    There is of course talk that Zelensky is sponsored by Kolomoysky. Which would be interesting, since Kolomoysky and Tymoshenko were pretty tight themselves.

    Both dislike Poroshenko.

    I haven't been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we're now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.

    @ Mr. XYZ,

    I think Nazarbayev is too cautious to play such games. Though he is getting old, and his successors, of course, might not be.

    I haven’t been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we’re now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.

    If two candidates make it to a runoff and one of the candidates subsequently drops out, would that mean that the other candidate would win by default?

    If Zelensky actually tries such a move, I suspect that the backlash to this from his supporters is going to be extreme.

    I think Nazarbayev is too cautious to play such games. Though he is getting old, and his successors, of course, might not be.

    Yeah, that’s what I also think.

  16. @songbird
    You know what's funny? It seems to be geoblocked in the US. Though just the video. There's a slideshow - maybe the exact same thing.

    It would be pretty interesting if someone make a study of general African culture to figure out how representative that is, for instance in Nollywood. Too bad we don't have any serious news organizations with resources. But I imagine it is probably pretty representative. I wonder where it is on the charts, if they have them.

    It would be pretty interesting if someone make a study of general African culture to figure out how representative that is

    I suppose the general sentiment must be pretty widespread, iirc there are surveys showing that huge numbers of Africans would like to emigrate.

    I wonder where it is on the charts, if they have them.

    No idea, but the singer is supposedly one of Africa’s most influential reggae musicians.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiken_Jah_Fakoly

    Tiken Jah Fakoly plays music “to wake up the consciences”. His music speaks about the many injustices done to the people of his country and Africans in general, as well as inciting calls for pan-Africanism and an African economic, political and cultural resurgence. As such, many African listeners feel a deep affinity with his lyrics as Fakoly speaks for oppressed people.

  17. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn’t doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I’d guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.
     

    Given Ukraine's poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you're supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn't much of an accomplishment), I really wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky wins. I mean, when your mainstream politicians have consistently failed to deliver for a couple of decades, you might as well try something new. Heck, I myself would probably vote for Zelensky if I had to choose between him and Poroshenko in the second round and if I was actually a Ukrainian citizen (I'm not).

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania--thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky's victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.


    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.
     
    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though. If one subscribes to such a view, then the mistake would not have been so much in having the Donbass rebel as in having Russia refuse to annex the Donbass afterwards.

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment)

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania–thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky’s victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.

    Zelensky isn’t even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won’t result in the presidency, but it’s not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.
     
    Thanks for the correction, but my overall point here still appears to be valid.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.
     
    Belarus has more than two times the GDP PPP per capita that Ukraine has. Thus, slower growth on Belarus's part should be expected. It isn't a very good idea for Ukrainians to compare themselves to a country that has a similar average IQ to Ukraine and yet is already more than two times wealthier per capita than they themselves are.

    As for Moldova, based on PISA, Moldovans appear to be as intelligent as American Blacks--possibly as a result of large-scale brain drain from Moldova. I suspect that Ukrainians are more intelligent than Moldovans are--perhaps by as much as 0.5 standard deviations. Thus, Ukraine should have a higher ceiling for its GDP per capita than Moldova should have (considering the importance of average national IQ in regards to economic prosperity). That said, though, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Moldova is also underperforming. Moldova's GDP PPP per capita is around $5,700 whereas I suspect that the equivalent figure for American Blacks would be over $20,000. Granted, American Blacks benefit from affirmative action and from living in a country with much smarter ethnic groups, but I would still be surprised if Moldova's ceiling in regards to this will be less than $15,000. Ukraine's ceiling, I would suspect would be somewhere between $25,000 and $30,000--in other words, around Greece's or Turkey's level of GDP PPP per capita. Ditto for Belarus.


    Zelensky isn’t even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won’t result in the presidency, but it’s not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.
     

    To be fair, though, Trump also made a career from television and entertainment. As for Trump's business ventures, well, let's just say that I wonder how much baloney was inside of them.

    Anyway, though, my overall point here is that if Ukrainians are sufficiently fed up with the status quo, they could certainly elect an outsider as their President. I still think that my Trump example here is sufficiently valid since he was also a political outsider before he ran for the US Presidency. After all, Trump literally never ran for any elected office at any point during his lifetime before his 2016 presidential bid.

    , @Thorfinnsson
    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    7% GDP growth is not only obtainable but ought to be a priority objective of the state.

    Belarus is twice as wealthy and in any case has some kind of unique quasi-socialist model. Unfortunately English-language information on Belarus is poor. Presumably you Russian speakers know more.
    , @Jon0815

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.
     
    More like 3.4%. Per the World Bank, in 2017 the difference between Ukraine's growth and per capita growth was 2.54% vs. 2.95%.
  18. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    There is of course talk that Zelensky is sponsored by Kolomoysky. Which would be interesting, since Kolomoysky and Tymoshenko were pretty tight themselves.

    Both dislike Poroshenko.

    I haven't been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we're now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.

    @ Mr. XYZ,

    I think Nazarbayev is too cautious to play such games. Though he is getting old, and his successors, of course, might not be.

    There is of course talk that Zelensky is sponsored by Kolomoysky. Which would be interesting, since Kolomoysky and Tymoshenko were pretty tight themselves.

    Both dislike Poroshenko.

    Correct.

    I haven’t been following this closely enough to judge, but could it be that Zelensky was supposed to just nudge Poroshenko into third position and then fold so that Tymoshenko could win? A scheme which got out of hand, as we’re now looking at Zelensky vs. Poroshenko in the second round.

    Kolomoyski follows his own interests though he is allied with Tymoshenko. Given that both the Zelensky and the Tymoshenko votes are anti-Poroshenko votes*, it would have seemed obvious that he would be taking some votes from her. The plan would have been to knock Poroshenko into 3rd place which both Tymoshenko and Kolomoyski could live with.

    In the second round Zelensky’s deficiencies will become more apparent. He still has a chance due to a lot of people being fed up with Poroshenko’s corruption. He will have to get young people to vote for him, and Easterners to vote for him, without alienating both groups (the natioinalists won’t vote for him). If Tymoshenko urges her people to vote for him he may well win.

    *Their electorates are different. Old non-pro-Soviet people prefer Tymoshenko (the old Sovoks vote for the Opposition bloc) – she is popular with grandmothers from Kiev; Zelensky gets young voters from everywhere in the country, and those from the East who dislike Poroshenko but don’t want to vote for the Opposition Bloc.

  19. @AP

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment)
     
    Well, it's about 4% growth per capita.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania–thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky’s victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.
     
    Zelensky isn't even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won't result in the presidency, but it's not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.

    Thanks for the correction, but my overall point here still appears to be valid.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.

    Belarus has more than two times the GDP PPP per capita that Ukraine has. Thus, slower growth on Belarus’s part should be expected. It isn’t a very good idea for Ukrainians to compare themselves to a country that has a similar average IQ to Ukraine and yet is already more than two times wealthier per capita than they themselves are.

    As for Moldova, based on PISA, Moldovans appear to be as intelligent as American Blacks–possibly as a result of large-scale brain drain from Moldova. I suspect that Ukrainians are more intelligent than Moldovans are–perhaps by as much as 0.5 standard deviations. Thus, Ukraine should have a higher ceiling for its GDP per capita than Moldova should have (considering the importance of average national IQ in regards to economic prosperity). That said, though, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Moldova is also underperforming. Moldova’s GDP PPP per capita is around $5,700 whereas I suspect that the equivalent figure for American Blacks would be over $20,000. Granted, American Blacks benefit from affirmative action and from living in a country with much smarter ethnic groups, but I would still be surprised if Moldova’s ceiling in regards to this will be less than $15,000. Ukraine’s ceiling, I would suspect would be somewhere between $25,000 and $30,000–in other words, around Greece’s or Turkey’s level of GDP PPP per capita. Ditto for Belarus.

    Zelensky isn’t even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won’t result in the presidency, but it’s not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.

    To be fair, though, Trump also made a career from television and entertainment. As for Trump’s business ventures, well, let’s just say that I wonder how much baloney was inside of them.

    Anyway, though, my overall point here is that if Ukrainians are sufficiently fed up with the status quo, they could certainly elect an outsider as their President. I still think that my Trump example here is sufficiently valid since he was also a political outsider before he ran for the US Presidency. After all, Trump literally never ran for any elected office at any point during his lifetime before his 2016 presidential bid.

    • Replies: @AP

    Belarus has more than two times the GDP PPP per capita that Ukraine has. Thus, slower growth on Belarus’s part should be expected. It isn’t a very good idea for Ukrainians to compare themselves to a country that has a similar average IQ to Ukraine and yet is already more than two times wealthier per capita than they themselves are.
     
    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine's growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine's growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.

    To be fair, though, Trump also made a career from television and entertainment.
     
    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.

    Anyway, though, my overall point here is that if Ukrainians are sufficiently fed up with the status quo, they could certainly elect an outsider as their President.
     
    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.
  20. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.
     
    Thanks for the correction, but my overall point here still appears to be valid.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.
     
    Belarus has more than two times the GDP PPP per capita that Ukraine has. Thus, slower growth on Belarus's part should be expected. It isn't a very good idea for Ukrainians to compare themselves to a country that has a similar average IQ to Ukraine and yet is already more than two times wealthier per capita than they themselves are.

    As for Moldova, based on PISA, Moldovans appear to be as intelligent as American Blacks--possibly as a result of large-scale brain drain from Moldova. I suspect that Ukrainians are more intelligent than Moldovans are--perhaps by as much as 0.5 standard deviations. Thus, Ukraine should have a higher ceiling for its GDP per capita than Moldova should have (considering the importance of average national IQ in regards to economic prosperity). That said, though, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Moldova is also underperforming. Moldova's GDP PPP per capita is around $5,700 whereas I suspect that the equivalent figure for American Blacks would be over $20,000. Granted, American Blacks benefit from affirmative action and from living in a country with much smarter ethnic groups, but I would still be surprised if Moldova's ceiling in regards to this will be less than $15,000. Ukraine's ceiling, I would suspect would be somewhere between $25,000 and $30,000--in other words, around Greece's or Turkey's level of GDP PPP per capita. Ditto for Belarus.


    Zelensky isn’t even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won’t result in the presidency, but it’s not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.
     

    To be fair, though, Trump also made a career from television and entertainment. As for Trump's business ventures, well, let's just say that I wonder how much baloney was inside of them.

    Anyway, though, my overall point here is that if Ukrainians are sufficiently fed up with the status quo, they could certainly elect an outsider as their President. I still think that my Trump example here is sufficiently valid since he was also a political outsider before he ran for the US Presidency. After all, Trump literally never ran for any elected office at any point during his lifetime before his 2016 presidential bid.

    Belarus has more than two times the GDP PPP per capita that Ukraine has. Thus, slower growth on Belarus’s part should be expected. It isn’t a very good idea for Ukrainians to compare themselves to a country that has a similar average IQ to Ukraine and yet is already more than two times wealthier per capita than they themselves are.

    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine’s growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine’s growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.

    To be fair, though, Trump also made a career from television and entertainment.

    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.

    Anyway, though, my overall point here is that if Ukrainians are sufficiently fed up with the status quo, they could certainly elect an outsider as their President.

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine’s growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine’s growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.
     
    How a country got into a bad position shouldn't be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.

    If China in 1978 (after a couple of decades of Maoist mismanagement) grew at 3% per year (I'm assuming about the same rate as the US during this time), Chinese would have had absolutely nothing to boast about considering that they were much, much poorer per capita than the US was during this time. In 1978, China needed decades of extremely rapid growth (sometimes in the double-digits) to make up for the time that it lost due to Maoist mismanagement (and, before that, to WWII, civil war, and warlordism). Likewise, right now, Ukraine needs to have extremely rapid economic growth (probably not double-digits, though) to make up for the poor economic decisions that its previous leaders made.

    It's much easier for a country to rapidly grow when it is extremely poor and has a lot of potential (as a result of a high average IQ). If such a country isn't growing rapidly, then something probably isn't being done right. Again, I will point to post-1978 China as being an example of what happens when a country acquires competent leadership and when a country's average IQ is much, much higher than its GDP per capita would cause one to believe. I firmly believe that Ukraine is capable of something similar with sufficiently competent leadership--albeit on a smaller scale than what China did over the last forty years.

    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.
     
    And Zelensky is incapable of getting any Ukrainian politicians to support his bid?

    Also, how many French politicians supported Macron's bid early on?

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.
     
    If you say so.
  21. @AP

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception
     
    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn't doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I'd guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
     
    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
     
    Russian Wiki says nord stream 2 comes online in January 2020, not 2019.

    Exports are up over last year. GDP grew 3.4% in 2018, but growth is predicted to slow to 2.5% in 2019. So ongoing growth.

    …The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine

    It is not about what we want, but what we will settle for. The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating, the purchasing power has declined since 2014, the exports are below 2014, there is no way this can be described as a success.

    North Stream 2 – whether in 2019 or 2020 – will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.

    Porosheno has no place to turn if he wins. Any other possible winner (Timoshenko?) would sooner or later reach out to Russia to negotiate a compromise. The problem is that the terms in 2018 would had been better than in 2020. The old adage that art of living is in selling your horse before it dies applies here. Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.

    • Replies: @AP

    The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.
     
    They are forced to settle for those regions because they were blocked from grabbing the rest of so-called Novorossiya.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating,
     
    Positive growth isn't stagnation. Living standards are certainly improving, judging by increases in salaries and consumption of consumer goods.

    the purchasing power has declined since 2014
     
    It's actually about the same.

    North Stream 2 – whether in 2019 or 2020 – will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance.
     
    It will not be 2019; current contract doesn't even expire until Jan.1 2020. It will be 2020 or even 2021. We'll see what, if anything, that means. However possible scenarios do not generally envision that transit through Ukraine will be reduced to zero. The lowest estimate is it will be about 15% of the 2018 transit while likely estimates are in the ballpark of 60%.

    As of January 31st this year Russia was prepared to extend the current transit contract for 10 more years:

    http://tass.com/economy/1042686

    There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.
     
    Planning for Nordstream 2 began before Maidan. Losing Crimea to Russia is probably less of a strategic blow than losing the entire country to Russia.

    Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.
     
    It's doing fine without a final settlement with Russia. So it can wait 20, 50 years at current status quo. Without a settlement Ukraine's West and Center will continue to improve and its East will continue to lag behind. Bad for them, but the country was focused on their interests for 20 years post independence and it wasn't too nice.
    , @Thorfinnsson

    Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.
     
    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014, the country will not lose all importance when Nordstream 2 comes online.

    It will remain a large country situated between Russia and the European Union.

    Its largest trade partners will remain the European Union and Russia.

    The Ukraine has considerable economic opportunities in the future as well. With the Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination for Western European capital to invest. It should be expected to grow as a supplier to Western MNCs of such things as aircraft components, auto parts, sheet metal, etc.

    Based on the recent success in Russian agricultural exports, it would appear that the Ukraine has a lot of potential here as well. And since the Ukraine is so much smaller and poorer than Russia, growth in agricultural exports would have a major impact on the Ukrainian economy.

    Subsidized energy from Russia is of course finished, but then Russia should've stopped doing this 20 years ago anyway.

    The country can also expect no increases in its economic ties with Russia (the opposite is to be expected), but unfortunately for the Ukraine it had to choose between Russia and the West anyway for reasons completely outside of its own control.

    The EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014 which is of course what led to the previous government to reject this offer. But now that the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.

    And EU membership, which won't happen, isn't necessary for Western integration or economic success.

  22. @Mr. XYZ
    I wonder if Russophobia in the US is going to increase even more in the event that Russia will outright annex Belarus (which I suspect is unlikely, but which I am also unwilling to completely rule out as a possibility).

    Also, I wonder if Russophobes in the US are going to significantly deepen US-Kazakhstan relations in an attempt to secure Russia's soft underbelly. After all, Russophobes might already feel that Russia is encircled on three sides (by NATO in the west, north, and east--combined with US ally Japan). Encircling Russia on its southern flank would result in the encirclement of Russia being much more complete--though Russia would still have a lifeline to China in such a scenario.

    A more likely scenario:

    https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-russia-won-t-swallow-belarus-further-integration/29797813.html

    Dunno about 98% of Belarusians being opposed to Belarus becoming a part of the Russian Federation. If that were to happen, Belarus would probably have a loose arrangement, which would see some noticeable autonomy.

  23. [MORE]

    Paul Robinson: The Ukraine bans its own Eurovision candidate ,exits contest, because she wouldn’t parrot Kiev’s propaganda.

    Good comments thread:

    https://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2019/02/26/land-of-the-absurd/#comments

  24. @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don't know - the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine's incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more "practical" after Saakashvili's ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians' ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don't know how exactly time is on Russia's side.

    Pro-Atlantic orientation by itself means nothing. If there are specific things that get done – Nato or EU membership, or bases – then I would agree with you. But ‘orientation’ with no results is like a young girl pining after Brad Pitt, it has no actionable value. All it does is delays her life.

    Russophobia has a polarising effect, as do most irrational emotions. There will be more of it in 2020’s, and there will also be a backlash against it. Then it will either blow up as all demonisation manias do – if one’s enemy is literally the ‘devil’ there can be no constraints. Or it will end in an intra-West conflict between the two sides (of course blamed on Russia).

    In any case, there isn’t much Russia can do about it. If you think that without Ukraine there would be less Russophobia, you haven’t met the morons pushing it. At this point large portions of Western elites desire evil, white enemies – there are no other good candidates than Russia. If Russia collapses tomorrow and distributes all its riches among the Western elites, it won’t make one iota of difference – they will still hate all things Russian, except they will also again show contempt. Hatred is not something that one can negotiate with, it has to burn out on its own.

    • Replies: @AP

    Pro-Atlantic orientation by itself means nothing. If there are specific things that get done – Nato or EU membership, or bases – then I would agree with you
     
    Integration into Western supply chains are specific things that are getting done and that are expanding. Center of Ukraine's economic gravity shifting from the more pro-Russian east to the more pro-Western West is another thing. And while NATO membership is not on the table who knows about bases.

    At this point large portions of Western elites desire evil, white enemies – there are no other good candidates than Russia.
     
    They probably have more fun going against these within their own borders.
  25. @AP

    Belarus has more than two times the GDP PPP per capita that Ukraine has. Thus, slower growth on Belarus’s part should be expected. It isn’t a very good idea for Ukrainians to compare themselves to a country that has a similar average IQ to Ukraine and yet is already more than two times wealthier per capita than they themselves are.
     
    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine's growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine's growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.

    To be fair, though, Trump also made a career from television and entertainment.
     
    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.

    Anyway, though, my overall point here is that if Ukrainians are sufficiently fed up with the status quo, they could certainly elect an outsider as their President.
     
    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.

    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine’s growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine’s growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.

    How a country got into a bad position shouldn’t be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.

    If China in 1978 (after a couple of decades of Maoist mismanagement) grew at 3% per year (I’m assuming about the same rate as the US during this time), Chinese would have had absolutely nothing to boast about considering that they were much, much poorer per capita than the US was during this time. In 1978, China needed decades of extremely rapid growth (sometimes in the double-digits) to make up for the time that it lost due to Maoist mismanagement (and, before that, to WWII, civil war, and warlordism). Likewise, right now, Ukraine needs to have extremely rapid economic growth (probably not double-digits, though) to make up for the poor economic decisions that its previous leaders made.

    It’s much easier for a country to rapidly grow when it is extremely poor and has a lot of potential (as a result of a high average IQ). If such a country isn’t growing rapidly, then something probably isn’t being done right. Again, I will point to post-1978 China as being an example of what happens when a country acquires competent leadership and when a country’s average IQ is much, much higher than its GDP per capita would cause one to believe. I firmly believe that Ukraine is capable of something similar with sufficiently competent leadership–albeit on a smaller scale than what China did over the last forty years.

    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.

    And Zelensky is incapable of getting any Ukrainian politicians to support his bid?

    Also, how many French politicians supported Macron’s bid early on?

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.

    If you say so.

    • Replies: @AP

    How a country got into a bad position shouldn’t be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.
     
    If it was a rapid relative decline followed by correction, sure. But this has been 20+ years in the making, of falling behind.

    Is Hungary even close to catching up to Austria?
    , @AP

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.

    If you say so.
     
    My point is that by winning the nomination Trump inherited the Republican Party, an established political force with a lot of experienced people and built-in voters. If Zelensky makes it into the second round it is just him. His bid is much more of an outsider bid than was Trump's, in the worst ways when it comes to winning an election.
  26. If Ukraine is currently growing at Belarus’s pace in regards to its GDP PPP per capita, then Ukraine is always going to remain significantly behind Belarus. For countries that presumably have roughly similar average IQs, this isn’t a very good situation for the country that is significantly behind (in this case, Ukraine) to be in.

  27. AP says:
    @Beckow

    ...The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine
     
    It is not about what we want, but what we will settle for. The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating, the purchasing power has declined since 2014, the exports are below 2014, there is no way this can be described as a success.

    North Stream 2 - whether in 2019 or 2020 - will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.

    Porosheno has no place to turn if he wins. Any other possible winner (Timoshenko?) would sooner or later reach out to Russia to negotiate a compromise. The problem is that the terms in 2018 would had been better than in 2020. The old adage that art of living is in selling your horse before it dies applies here. Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.

    The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.

    They are forced to settle for those regions because they were blocked from grabbing the rest of so-called Novorossiya.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating,

    Positive growth isn’t stagnation. Living standards are certainly improving, judging by increases in salaries and consumption of consumer goods.

    the purchasing power has declined since 2014

    It’s actually about the same.

    North Stream 2 – whether in 2019 or 2020 – will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance.

    It will not be 2019; current contract doesn’t even expire until Jan.1 2020. It will be 2020 or even 2021. We’ll see what, if anything, that means. However possible scenarios do not generally envision that transit through Ukraine will be reduced to zero. The lowest estimate is it will be about 15% of the 2018 transit while likely estimates are in the ballpark of 60%.

    As of January 31st this year Russia was prepared to extend the current transit contract for 10 more years:

    http://tass.com/economy/1042686

    There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.

    Planning for Nordstream 2 began before Maidan. Losing Crimea to Russia is probably less of a strategic blow than losing the entire country to Russia.

    Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.

    It’s doing fine without a final settlement with Russia. So it can wait 20, 50 years at current status quo. Without a settlement Ukraine’s West and Center will continue to improve and its East will continue to lag behind. Bad for them, but the country was focused on their interests for 20 years post independence and it wasn’t too nice.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    It is nice to see your optimism, but your are shading a not very good situation. To be at 2014 purchasing power after 5 years is nothing to boast about. I agree that the Western Ukraine and Kiev have done better - they are benefitting from the westward shift of everything. But as a whole it is not a prosperous place - 2014 was already dismal, that's why people came out on Maidan. Not to keep it the same.

    You know my position: EU offered a cheap deal. For once Kiev acted rationally and asked for better terms via postponement. Partially stirred by Western support, partially by accumulated anger, crowds came out on Maidan yelling for 'Europe at any price' fatally undermining Kiev's negotiating position. Then it was downhill - stupid language law, over-heated and premature anti-Russian rhetoric, lack of planning. Russia moved first, the Western sponsors peeped like a stabbed piglet and did nothing. Since then it is all consequence management.

    If I am in a middle of a negotiation and I am offered a bad deal, but my whole family starts screaming and shouting that 'we want the deal no matter what', it is likely that I will get screwed. EU totally took advantage of Kiev's weakness. Then the emotional mistakes by the Maidan leaders made it worse.

    Whether NS2 happens Dec 2019, Jan 2020, or even in 2021, is of little importance, Russia and Germany are playing the long game. The strategic balance will shift - no need to ship through Ukraine, or ship only minimally, and that means nothing for Kiev to negotiate with. Germans took care of their own needs and the distribution is heading towards Baltic. All of central-eastern Europe will re-orient over time towards the German Baltic coast. There is no reason why there wouldn't be North Stream III, that ship has sailed and Kiev lost. The LNG terminals, like the one in Poland, only reinforce this new energy reality - Ukraine is no longer a necessary part of transit.

    But miracles can happen, we agreed to wait a few years to see how prosperous Ukraine will be. I will here.
  28. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine’s growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine’s growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.
     
    How a country got into a bad position shouldn't be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.

    If China in 1978 (after a couple of decades of Maoist mismanagement) grew at 3% per year (I'm assuming about the same rate as the US during this time), Chinese would have had absolutely nothing to boast about considering that they were much, much poorer per capita than the US was during this time. In 1978, China needed decades of extremely rapid growth (sometimes in the double-digits) to make up for the time that it lost due to Maoist mismanagement (and, before that, to WWII, civil war, and warlordism). Likewise, right now, Ukraine needs to have extremely rapid economic growth (probably not double-digits, though) to make up for the poor economic decisions that its previous leaders made.

    It's much easier for a country to rapidly grow when it is extremely poor and has a lot of potential (as a result of a high average IQ). If such a country isn't growing rapidly, then something probably isn't being done right. Again, I will point to post-1978 China as being an example of what happens when a country acquires competent leadership and when a country's average IQ is much, much higher than its GDP per capita would cause one to believe. I firmly believe that Ukraine is capable of something similar with sufficiently competent leadership--albeit on a smaller scale than what China did over the last forty years.

    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.
     
    And Zelensky is incapable of getting any Ukrainian politicians to support his bid?

    Also, how many French politicians supported Macron's bid early on?

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.
     
    If you say so.

    How a country got into a bad position shouldn’t be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.

    If it was a rapid relative decline followed by correction, sure. But this has been 20+ years in the making, of falling behind.

    Is Hungary even close to catching up to Austria?

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Is Hungary even close to catching up to Austria?
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita_growth_rate

    No, but its GDP PPP per capita growth rate appears to be twice that of Austria--which is certainly an encouraging sign since it means that the GDP PPP per capita gap between Austria and Hungary is going to narrow over time.
  29. AP says:
    @Beckow
    Pro-Atlantic orientation by itself means nothing. If there are specific things that get done - Nato or EU membership, or bases - then I would agree with you. But 'orientation' with no results is like a young girl pining after Brad Pitt, it has no actionable value. All it does is delays her life.

    Russophobia has a polarising effect, as do most irrational emotions. There will be more of it in 2020's, and there will also be a backlash against it. Then it will either blow up as all demonisation manias do - if one's enemy is literally the 'devil' there can be no constraints. Or it will end in an intra-West conflict between the two sides (of course blamed on Russia).

    In any case, there isn't much Russia can do about it. If you think that without Ukraine there would be less Russophobia, you haven't met the morons pushing it. At this point large portions of Western elites desire evil, white enemies - there are no other good candidates than Russia. If Russia collapses tomorrow and distributes all its riches among the Western elites, it won't make one iota of difference - they will still hate all things Russian, except they will also again show contempt. Hatred is not something that one can negotiate with, it has to burn out on its own.

    Pro-Atlantic orientation by itself means nothing. If there are specific things that get done – Nato or EU membership, or bases – then I would agree with you

    Integration into Western supply chains are specific things that are getting done and that are expanding. Center of Ukraine’s economic gravity shifting from the more pro-Russian east to the more pro-Western West is another thing. And while NATO membership is not on the table who knows about bases.

    At this point large portions of Western elites desire evil, white enemies – there are no other good candidates than Russia.

    They probably have more fun going against these within their own borders.

  30. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    But this hole was dug long ago. Ukraine’s growth is comparable to that of Belarus now. When both countries were poorer (and similar in wealth) Ukraine’s growth was slower then, which is how it got into its hole relative to Belarus.
     
    How a country got into a bad position shouldn't be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.

    If China in 1978 (after a couple of decades of Maoist mismanagement) grew at 3% per year (I'm assuming about the same rate as the US during this time), Chinese would have had absolutely nothing to boast about considering that they were much, much poorer per capita than the US was during this time. In 1978, China needed decades of extremely rapid growth (sometimes in the double-digits) to make up for the time that it lost due to Maoist mismanagement (and, before that, to WWII, civil war, and warlordism). Likewise, right now, Ukraine needs to have extremely rapid economic growth (probably not double-digits, though) to make up for the poor economic decisions that its previous leaders made.

    It's much easier for a country to rapidly grow when it is extremely poor and has a lot of potential (as a result of a high average IQ). If such a country isn't growing rapidly, then something probably isn't being done right. Again, I will point to post-1978 China as being an example of what happens when a country acquires competent leadership and when a country's average IQ is much, much higher than its GDP per capita would cause one to believe. I firmly believe that Ukraine is capable of something similar with sufficiently competent leadership--albeit on a smaller scale than what China did over the last forty years.

    Yes, but primarily from real estate. And once Trump won the primary he had at least some of the Republican establishment come around, and a governor as his vice presidential candidate.
     
    And Zelensky is incapable of getting any Ukrainian politicians to support his bid?

    Also, how many French politicians supported Macron's bid early on?

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.
     
    If you say so.

    They could. The problem is that there are outsiders and there are outsiders.

    If you say so.

    My point is that by winning the nomination Trump inherited the Republican Party, an established political force with a lot of experienced people and built-in voters. If Zelensky makes it into the second round it is just him. His bid is much more of an outsider bid than was Trump’s, in the worst ways when it comes to winning an election.

  31. Apparently some Russian military expert has noticed good things about Ukraine’s tank modernization:

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/gurkhan/tankist-vsu-rasskazal-o-svoem-tanke-t64bv-obr2017-goda-5c64372b84e0ea00aebfadf9

    Ukraine has also begun mass production of new rockets and artillery systems:

    https://defence-blog.com/army/ukraine-announces-mass-production-of-new-rocket-launchers.html

    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    Apparently some Russian military expert has noticed good things about Ukraine’s tank modernization
     
    I cannot read Russian, but is it about the latest Ukrainian modernized version of the T-64 being more potent than the latest Russian modernized version of the T-72? I think I’ve already shared a link from the Defence Blog about it.

    The Russians also have lots of T-90s and T-80s modernized to higher standards, and will soon start mass producing the T-14.

    Still I think it’s obviously not a bad upgrade, and shows the abilities of the Ukrainian defense industry.
  32. @AP
    Apparently some Russian military expert has noticed good things about Ukraine's tank modernization:

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/gurkhan/tankist-vsu-rasskazal-o-svoem-tanke-t64bv-obr2017-goda-5c64372b84e0ea00aebfadf9

    Ukraine has also begun mass production of new rockets and artillery systems:

    https://defence-blog.com/army/ukraine-announces-mass-production-of-new-rocket-launchers.html

    Apparently some Russian military expert has noticed good things about Ukraine’s tank modernization

    I cannot read Russian, but is it about the latest Ukrainian modernized version of the T-64 being more potent than the latest Russian modernized version of the T-72? I think I’ve already shared a link from the Defence Blog about it.

    The Russians also have lots of T-90s and T-80s modernized to higher standards, and will soon start mass producing the T-14.

    Still I think it’s obviously not a bad upgrade, and shows the abilities of the Ukrainian defense industry.

  33. @AP

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment)
     
    Well, it's about 4% growth per capita.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania–thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky’s victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.
     
    Zelensky isn't even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won't result in the presidency, but it's not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.

    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    7% GDP growth is not only obtainable but ought to be a priority objective of the state.

    Belarus is twice as wealthy and in any case has some kind of unique quasi-socialist model. Unfortunately English-language information on Belarus is poor. Presumably you Russian speakers know more.

    • Replies: @songbird
    Vietnam had large-scale Chinese settlement over a long timeframe. I believe that makes it different from the rest of SE Asia. I think it is quite possible that they have European norms for intelligence.
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    From personal experience, all that the average and better-informed-than-most English-speaker knows about Belarus is that Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    Hopefully Herr Karlin will soon be able to inform us further on Belarus.
    , @melanf

    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.
     
    The claim of human capital is highly questionable. Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.
    , @Mr. XYZ

    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.
     
    I am skeptical of this. After all, Vietnam even outperforms Russia on PISA and Ukraine would probably score lower than Russia on PISA. Plus, this is not to mention the fact that Vietnam might not have reached its genetic ceiling for average IQ yet (though that might also be true for Ukraine).

    What might hurt Vietnam is similar to what appears to hurt countries such as Japan and South Korea (and eventually, China as well). Specifically, I am talking about the lack of creativity/curiosity and/or whatever which causes East Asian countries to have a lower PPP GDP per capita than would be expected based on their average IQs. I don't see why exactly Vietnam would be an exception in regards to this. Then again, though, Singapore is indeed an exception in regards to this, so who the heck knows?

  34. @Beckow

    ...The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine
     
    It is not about what we want, but what we will settle for. The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating, the purchasing power has declined since 2014, the exports are below 2014, there is no way this can be described as a success.

    North Stream 2 - whether in 2019 or 2020 - will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.

    Porosheno has no place to turn if he wins. Any other possible winner (Timoshenko?) would sooner or later reach out to Russia to negotiate a compromise. The problem is that the terms in 2018 would had been better than in 2020. The old adage that art of living is in selling your horse before it dies applies here. Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.

    Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.

    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014, the country will not lose all importance when Nordstream 2 comes online.

    It will remain a large country situated between Russia and the European Union.

    Its largest trade partners will remain the European Union and Russia.

    The Ukraine has considerable economic opportunities in the future as well. With the Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination for Western European capital to invest. It should be expected to grow as a supplier to Western MNCs of such things as aircraft components, auto parts, sheet metal, etc.

    Based on the recent success in Russian agricultural exports, it would appear that the Ukraine has a lot of potential here as well. And since the Ukraine is so much smaller and poorer than Russia, growth in agricultural exports would have a major impact on the Ukrainian economy.

    Subsidized energy from Russia is of course finished, but then Russia should’ve stopped doing this 20 years ago anyway.

    The country can also expect no increases in its economic ties with Russia (the opposite is to be expected), but unfortunately for the Ukraine it had to choose between Russia and the West anyway for reasons completely outside of its own control.

    The EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014 which is of course what led to the previous government to reject this offer. But now that the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.

    And EU membership, which won’t happen, isn’t necessary for Western integration or economic success.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    Countries run by retards don't do well, no matter what the resources and potential - check out Venezuela for a recent example.

    Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination...
     
    ...for Ukrainian workers. I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads - all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east - there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere - they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine - why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.

    EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014...the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.
     
    I agree, that's what happened. The forever shallow analysis in the West is about slogans 'Europe or Asiatic barbarism'. What is ignored are the horrible conditions that EU offered to Yanukovitch, cheap doesn't start to describe it. EU had an upper hand and they don't think much of Ukrainians - they think of them as accidentally 'white' Somalis, or lower. Western integration can take many forms, the one Ukraine is currently pursuing is literally the lowest form - cheap labor, sell resources, the comprador class in Kiev gets rich.

    Lack of self-esteem always has consequences, Ukrainians are living with them right now.
    , @AP

    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014
     
    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led. There has been some change in a positive direction after 2014, due to Ukraine being backed up against a wall; it has been forced to build a more effective army, for example.

    There have of course been patriots in Ukraine but these have largely been excluded from political and economic power.

    As for 2014 - Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.

    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west's advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact. This is a very post-national argument. In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.

    I agree with the rest of your post.
  35. @Thorfinnsson
    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    7% GDP growth is not only obtainable but ought to be a priority objective of the state.

    Belarus is twice as wealthy and in any case has some kind of unique quasi-socialist model. Unfortunately English-language information on Belarus is poor. Presumably you Russian speakers know more.

    Vietnam had large-scale Chinese settlement over a long timeframe. I believe that makes it different from the rest of SE Asia. I think it is quite possible that they have European norms for intelligence.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    The figure I've seen is that Vietnamese genotypic IQ is 99. Probably the same as the Ukraine or at least not much different.

    The Ukraine should still have superior human capital owing to skills and education built in the Soviet period. Thus the Ukraine would have more skilled engineers, welders, machine tool operators, tool & die makers, etc.

    Over time of course Vietnam will converge.

    , @EldnahYm
    Vietnam also has less Indian admixture than the rest of mainland Southeast Asia, which is probably also a factor in higher Vietnamese IQ.
  36. If I speak objectively, it is actually better for Ukraine if Poroshenko continues to 2024.

    It’s not so important who is president there, but the fact that they have some political stability at the top.

    Even with a bad president, at least it one form of political stability. Political stability and lack of change of leaders, itself is a value for a country like Ukraine.

    Ukraine needs above all now some years of political stability, and this is above even the right or wrong of their actual policies.

    • Agree: AP
  37. @AP

    The rebels are willing to settle for most of two regions, with the capitols included, it is a small victory at a huge cost. In that way I agree that it is questionable.
     
    They are forced to settle for those regions because they were blocked from grabbing the rest of so-called Novorossiya.

    The growth in Ukraine is not strong enough, the living standards are stagnating,
     
    Positive growth isn't stagnation. Living standards are certainly improving, judging by increases in salaries and consumption of consumer goods.

    the purchasing power has declined since 2014
     
    It's actually about the same.

    North Stream 2 – whether in 2019 or 2020 – will be symbolically devastating. It will cut off Ukraine from the main flows of energy, and in a related way from commerce. Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance.
     
    It will not be 2019; current contract doesn't even expire until Jan.1 2020. It will be 2020 or even 2021. We'll see what, if anything, that means. However possible scenarios do not generally envision that transit through Ukraine will be reduced to zero. The lowest estimate is it will be about 15% of the 2018 transit while likely estimates are in the ballpark of 60%.

    As of January 31st this year Russia was prepared to extend the current transit contract for 10 more years:

    http://tass.com/economy/1042686

    There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.
     
    Planning for Nordstream 2 began before Maidan. Losing Crimea to Russia is probably less of a strategic blow than losing the entire country to Russia.

    Longer Kiev waits more devastating the eventual settlement will be.
     
    It's doing fine without a final settlement with Russia. So it can wait 20, 50 years at current status quo. Without a settlement Ukraine's West and Center will continue to improve and its East will continue to lag behind. Bad for them, but the country was focused on their interests for 20 years post independence and it wasn't too nice.

    It is nice to see your optimism, but your are shading a not very good situation. To be at 2014 purchasing power after 5 years is nothing to boast about. I agree that the Western Ukraine and Kiev have done better – they are benefitting from the westward shift of everything. But as a whole it is not a prosperous place – 2014 was already dismal, that’s why people came out on Maidan. Not to keep it the same.

    You know my position: EU offered a cheap deal. For once Kiev acted rationally and asked for better terms via postponement. Partially stirred by Western support, partially by accumulated anger, crowds came out on Maidan yelling for ‘Europe at any price‘ fatally undermining Kiev’s negotiating position. Then it was downhill – stupid language law, over-heated and premature anti-Russian rhetoric, lack of planning. Russia moved first, the Western sponsors peeped like a stabbed piglet and did nothing. Since then it is all consequence management.

    If I am in a middle of a negotiation and I am offered a bad deal, but my whole family starts screaming and shouting that ‘we want the deal no matter what‘, it is likely that I will get screwed. EU totally took advantage of Kiev’s weakness. Then the emotional mistakes by the Maidan leaders made it worse.

    Whether NS2 happens Dec 2019, Jan 2020, or even in 2021, is of little importance, Russia and Germany are playing the long game. The strategic balance will shift – no need to ship through Ukraine, or ship only minimally, and that means nothing for Kiev to negotiate with. Germans took care of their own needs and the distribution is heading towards Baltic. All of central-eastern Europe will re-orient over time towards the German Baltic coast. There is no reason why there wouldn’t be North Stream III, that ship has sailed and Kiev lost. The LNG terminals, like the one in Poland, only reinforce this new energy reality – Ukraine is no longer a necessary part of transit.

    But miracles can happen, we agreed to wait a few years to see how prosperous Ukraine will be. I will here.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @AP

    To be at 2014 purchasing power after 5 years is nothing to boast about.
     
    No, but it is also not a collapse. While the average is at the 2014, the West is above its 2014 level but the east is below.

    I agree that the Western Ukraine and Kiev have done better – they are benefitting from the westward shift of everything.
     
    Yes. And whom should the Ukrainian state serve more - the semi-Ukrainian East or the Ukrainian West and Center?

    But as a whole it is not a prosperous place – 2014 was already dismal, that’s why people came out on Maidan. Not to keep it the same.
     
    The people who came out to the Maidan were central and western Ukrainians, who after 25 years (not including 5 years Yushchenko semi-respite) decided to finally take control of their country, and their regions have seen improvement since and because of Maidan. As for "whole country" and how unfair this is the easterners - the easterners ran it for most of the 25 years and ran it into the ground.

    If I am in a middle of a negotiation and I am offered a bad deal, but my whole family starts screaming and shouting that ‘we want the deal no matter what‘, it is likely that I will get screwed. EU totally took advantage of Kiev’s weakness.
     
    This is a good point and true. But the Russian deal wasn't much better for regular people. A good deal with the EU would have better than a bad one, but a bad deal with EU was better than a bad one with Russia.

    But miracles can happen, we agreed to wait a few years to see how prosperous Ukraine will be. I will here.
     
    Not you AFAIK, but many pro-Russians were insisting in 2014 and 2015 that Ukraine would collapse in 3-4 years. That time has passed and certainly Ukraine has not collapsed. Without serious corruption reforms I do not expect Ukraine's economy to boom but I do expect steady 2-4% growth every year. This is not stagnation - stagnation would be 0% to 1% growth. This growth will not be evenly distributed across the regions but will be higher in the West and Center and lower in the East.
  38. @Thorfinnsson

    Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.
     
    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014, the country will not lose all importance when Nordstream 2 comes online.

    It will remain a large country situated between Russia and the European Union.

    Its largest trade partners will remain the European Union and Russia.

    The Ukraine has considerable economic opportunities in the future as well. With the Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination for Western European capital to invest. It should be expected to grow as a supplier to Western MNCs of such things as aircraft components, auto parts, sheet metal, etc.

    Based on the recent success in Russian agricultural exports, it would appear that the Ukraine has a lot of potential here as well. And since the Ukraine is so much smaller and poorer than Russia, growth in agricultural exports would have a major impact on the Ukrainian economy.

    Subsidized energy from Russia is of course finished, but then Russia should've stopped doing this 20 years ago anyway.

    The country can also expect no increases in its economic ties with Russia (the opposite is to be expected), but unfortunately for the Ukraine it had to choose between Russia and the West anyway for reasons completely outside of its own control.

    The EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014 which is of course what led to the previous government to reject this offer. But now that the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.

    And EU membership, which won't happen, isn't necessary for Western integration or economic success.

    Countries run by retards don’t do well, no matter what the resources and potential – check out Venezuela for a recent example.

    Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination…

    …for Ukrainian workers. I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east – there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.

    EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014…the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.

    I agree, that’s what happened. The forever shallow analysis in the West is about slogans ‘Europe or Asiatic barbarism’. What is ignored are the horrible conditions that EU offered to Yanukovitch, cheap doesn’t start to describe it. EU had an upper hand and they don’t think much of Ukrainians – they think of them as accidentally ‘white’ Somalis, or lower. Western integration can take many forms, the one Ukraine is currently pursuing is literally the lowest form – cheap labor, sell resources, the comprador class in Kiev gets rich.

    Lack of self-esteem always has consequences, Ukrainians are living with them right now.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson


    Countries run by retards don’t do well, no matter what the resources and potential – check out Venezuela for a recent example.
     
    Venezuela is not only run by retards but also populated by retards. Despite its (overrated) oil resources, the country is hopeless.

    There's also some sort of cultural problem with Latin American smart fractions and elites.

    Many times in the past two centuries (or really--FIVE centuries), various Latin American countries have been run by their smart fractions rather than democracies.

    The abysmal results speak for themselves.

    A failed and hopeless civilization which ought to be liquidated and replaced by Americans. Now impossible unfortunately.


    …for Ukrainian workers.
     
    Which will lower the Ukraine's unemployment rate and result in foreign remittance income. Eventually some Ukrainians will also return with their European pensions. If the Ukraine improves its governance, some will also return to start businesses.


    I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east – there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.
     
    This is all true, but not insurmountable. Western capital after all built just-in-time supply chains across the Pacific Ocean.

    And not all of the Ukraine's opportunities require improve roads either. The country is already becoming a destination for IT outsourcing. The Ukraine's agro-export opportunities require mainly legal reforms rather than investment in infrastructure (though some is needed for farm roads, ports, silos, etc.).
    , @AP

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?).
     
    Lviv is already well connected to Visegrad and links are growing. A new railway tunnel through the Carpathians caries up to 100 trains daily. Lviv's exports to the EU are up 22% last year.

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-emerges-from-isolation

    On land, more Ukrainians traveled by train to Europe than to Russia last year for the first time since Czarist railroads were built in the late nineteenth century. Traveling on 20 new EU-bound trains launched last year, Ukraine-EU passenger traffic doubled. By contrast, Ukraine-Russia rail passenger traffic contracted by 15 percent.

    For cars, Poland and Slovakia are building four lane divided highways that will reach Ukraine’s western borders in the early 2020s. Even without these highways, ads in the Kyiv metro advertise one way bus tickets from Kyiv to Warsaw for the equivalent of $8.

    Three years ago, Moscow pundits smirked that Ukraine was shooting itself in the foot when Kyiv banned flights between Ukraine and Russia.

    Now Ukraine enjoys the biggest aviation boom in Europe today.

    Take Kharkiv airport. In the Soviet era, it was built to fly Ukrainians to Moscow and Leningrad. Three years after losing all Russia routes, Kharkiv air traffic nearly hit a record 1 million passengers last year–20 times the 2002 level. Instead of flying workers to jobs in Russia, a whole generation of Russian-speaking Kharkivites are flying on LOT Polish Airlines to Warsaw, on Wizz Air to Gdansk, Katowice, and Wroclaw, or on Ernest Airlines to Milan and Rome.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.
     
    In Poland, Ukrainian workers make as much as Polish workers in the same jobs. They take the place of Poles who work in Germany or the UK. However in Ukraine salaries are 1/4 what they are in Poland, so there is still incentive to build factories in Ukraine. And this is exactly what is happening - lots of factories being built and expanded all over western and now central Ukraine (for example Bader the German car seat manufacturer built its second factory in Lviv oblast last year). So Ukrainians who are unwilling to do 6 month stints in Poland have options at home.
  39. “[Dutch diplomat and scientist Johan] Meerman observed around 1800 that the close connection with the German empire ‘removes (…) much of the typical, every other nation otherwise, and nations living on islands even more, always retain (…) and Denmark appears to me in all respects as merely a continued Germany. In the Capital it is even harder to discern between a Dane and a Stranger, if one has not spoken to him in advance’.

    Meerman also observed that that the Danish literature of the eighteenth century, ‘in poetry as well as in prose has completely incorporated the German spirit.’ The descriptions by the Dutchman contain a moral judgement that was shared by many Danes.”

    Regarding Ukrainian cultural connections to Russia, I thought the essay Germans making Danes: Germans and the German Language in Copenhagen and the Construction of Danish Culture 1750-1880 by Nikolaj Bijleveld on the development of Danish nationalism might be interesting.

  40. @Thorfinnsson
    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    7% GDP growth is not only obtainable but ought to be a priority objective of the state.

    Belarus is twice as wealthy and in any case has some kind of unique quasi-socialist model. Unfortunately English-language information on Belarus is poor. Presumably you Russian speakers know more.

    From personal experience, all that the average and better-informed-than-most English-speaker knows about Belarus is that Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    Hopefully Herr Karlin will soon be able to inform us further on Belarus.

    • Replies: @Beckow

    ...Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.
     
    That describes a lot of people in eastern Europe. And maybe that's the secret to Luka's longevity, and not some nefarious plot by a guy named Dugin. Or Luka's suppression of opposition by attacking them with tractors. Who doesn't like potatoes?
    , @for-the-record
    all that the average and better-informed-than-most English-speaker knows about Belarus is that Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    And, I might add, at least for those of a certain age, that it was the birthplace of Meyer Lansky.
  41. @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don't know - the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine's incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more "practical" after Saakashvili's ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians' ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don't know how exactly time is on Russia's side.

    Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine’s incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    So what, in your opinion, would Ukraine have to give up in order to restore full economic ties? Another total about face in Ukraine’s political orientation seems fraught with more uncertainty and bumps in the road? It’s clear that inclusion in a Russian dominated CIS is not in the cards. An acquiescence to Russia’s clumsy absorption of Crimea by Ukraine seems incomprehensible. Russia could have reabsorbed Crimea in a much more sanitized version, instead it chose to do so in a manner much more reminiscent to the Sudetenland one – resulting as the cornerstone for all of the sanctions piled up against it around the world.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    I thought we all agreed the inappropriate Putler analogies were Hillary's domain (Mike Pence, I am blaming you).
    , @Beckow

    ...what would Ukraine have to give up in order to restore full economic ties with Russia?
     
    I think restraining the emotional speeches would be a good start. Then maybe try to actually rationally address how to have open trade with both EU and Russia - given that EU and Russia don't have a free trade agreement. It is rather elementary - you can't have open borders on both sides with no negotiation as they tried in 2014 (mostly EU's fault, I think some Polish-Swedish duo was behind it, they got fired afterwards).

    The ugly reality is that Ukraine needs Russia a lot more than vice-versa. In those situations, yelling at the stronger party tends to backfire.

    I am not sure how else could Crimea be reabsorbed. It required a crisis, a distracted Kiev, and moving fast. Other than February-March 2014 right after Maidan I don't see how there would be another chance. Yes it was 'Sudetenland'-like, it always is, so was Kosovo.
  42. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    From personal experience, all that the average and better-informed-than-most English-speaker knows about Belarus is that Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    Hopefully Herr Karlin will soon be able to inform us further on Belarus.

    …Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    That describes a lot of people in eastern Europe. And maybe that’s the secret to Luka’s longevity, and not some nefarious plot by a guy named Dugin. Or Luka’s suppression of opposition by attacking them with tractors. Who doesn’t like potatoes?

  43. @Mr. Hack

    Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine’s incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.
     
    So what, in your opinion, would Ukraine have to give up in order to restore full economic ties? Another total about face in Ukraine's political orientation seems fraught with more uncertainty and bumps in the road? It's clear that inclusion in a Russian dominated CIS is not in the cards. An acquiescence to Russia's clumsy absorption of Crimea by Ukraine seems incomprehensible. Russia could have reabsorbed Crimea in a much more sanitized version, instead it chose to do so in a manner much more reminiscent to the Sudetenland one - resulting as the cornerstone for all of the sanctions piled up against it around the world.

    I thought we all agreed the inappropriate Putler analogies were Hillary’s domain (Mike Pence, I am blaming you).

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    What exactly do you find inappropriate about the analogy? It seems like a classic play taken directly from the H-man's playbook. Don't blame Hillary for Putler's blunt 'diplomacy' missteps.
  44. Didn’t Cindy McCain fuck around 0n the side for only a nickel…on the rotting piece of tumorous cornbeef John McCain?….Kind of humorous….

  45. @songbird
    Vietnam had large-scale Chinese settlement over a long timeframe. I believe that makes it different from the rest of SE Asia. I think it is quite possible that they have European norms for intelligence.

    The figure I’ve seen is that Vietnamese genotypic IQ is 99. Probably the same as the Ukraine or at least not much different.

    The Ukraine should still have superior human capital owing to skills and education built in the Soviet period. Thus the Ukraine would have more skilled engineers, welders, machine tool operators, tool & die makers, etc.

    Over time of course Vietnam will converge.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Curiously, if you overlay a graph of Vietnamese vs. Indian GDP per capita growth, they will match almost one for one.

    Which, I suppose, testifies to the importance of smart fractions.

    Also East Asians also seem to consistently do around 5 IQ points lower than what is suggested by their IQs.

    Thus the Ukraine would have more skilled engineers, welders, machine tool operators, tool & die makers, etc.
     
    All true, but the sort of enterprises where they are needed would require large capital investments, and people are loathe to that in the Ukraine for understandable reasons. (To a lesser extent, that is true of Russia as well).
  46. @Hyperborean
    I thought we all agreed the inappropriate Putler analogies were Hillary's domain (Mike Pence, I am blaming you).

    What exactly do you find inappropriate about the analogy? It seems like a classic play taken directly from the H-man’s playbook. Don’t blame Hillary for Putler’s blunt ‘diplomacy’ missteps.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    What exactly do you find inappropriate about the analogy? It seems like a classic play taken directly from the H-man’s playbook. Don’t blame Hillary for Putler’s blunt ‘diplomacy’ missteps.
     
    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France. Even after absorbing the Czech parts of Bohemia-Moravia, Hitler could probably still have Danzig, and if he were lucky, a land corridor to East Prussia (also important because Germany could potentially hold a lot of influence over Poland due to the importance of Gdynia for the Polish economy).

    So a more similar scenario might be Putler receives the Crimea, then the Donbass, in a diplomatic deal (no sanctions). Then he annexes Byelorussia. By now there is a lot of rearmament and sabre-rattling over the Baltics by both sides, an incident occurs and Russia and the "Western" Powers are officially at war.

    Of course, not everything is about Hitler.

  47. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don't know - the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine's incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more "practical" after Saakashvili's ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians' ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don't know how exactly time is on Russia's side.

    You are assuming the West maintains its economic lead and doesn’t collapse.

    If the West cannot dole out aid and economic benefits, what good is it to ally with them?

    Meanwhile Russia through Eurasia will become much more powerful economically.

    • Replies: @AP
    The West will not collapse and, theoretically, if it would collapse so would China and therefore Russia.
  48. @Thorfinnsson
    The figure I've seen is that Vietnamese genotypic IQ is 99. Probably the same as the Ukraine or at least not much different.

    The Ukraine should still have superior human capital owing to skills and education built in the Soviet period. Thus the Ukraine would have more skilled engineers, welders, machine tool operators, tool & die makers, etc.

    Over time of course Vietnam will converge.

    Curiously, if you overlay a graph of Vietnamese vs. Indian GDP per capita growth, they will match almost one for one.

    Which, I suppose, testifies to the importance of smart fractions.

    Also East Asians also seem to consistently do around 5 IQ points lower than what is suggested by their IQs.

    Thus the Ukraine would have more skilled engineers, welders, machine tool operators, tool & die makers, etc.

    All true, but the sort of enterprises where they are needed would require large capital investments, and people are loathe to that in the Ukraine for understandable reasons. (To a lesser extent, that is true of Russia as well).

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson


    All true, but the sort of enterprises where they are needed would require large capital investments, and people are loathe to that in the Ukraine for understandable reasons. (To a lesser extent, that is true of Russia as well).
     
    True, and no doubt AP and Mr. Hack agree that the Ukraine needs very deep reforms.

    But there's low hanging fruit to be plucked in IT and agriculture.
  49. AP says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Once NS2 is online, Ukraine ceases to matter to both Russian and German economy. It is not just 3% of the GDP that will disappear, it is the loss of strategic importance. There were 2 things in Ukraine that had strategic value: Crimea and the pipelines. Ukraine is losing both of them because of Maidan.
     
    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014, the country will not lose all importance when Nordstream 2 comes online.

    It will remain a large country situated between Russia and the European Union.

    Its largest trade partners will remain the European Union and Russia.

    The Ukraine has considerable economic opportunities in the future as well. With the Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination for Western European capital to invest. It should be expected to grow as a supplier to Western MNCs of such things as aircraft components, auto parts, sheet metal, etc.

    Based on the recent success in Russian agricultural exports, it would appear that the Ukraine has a lot of potential here as well. And since the Ukraine is so much smaller and poorer than Russia, growth in agricultural exports would have a major impact on the Ukrainian economy.

    Subsidized energy from Russia is of course finished, but then Russia should've stopped doing this 20 years ago anyway.

    The country can also expect no increases in its economic ties with Russia (the opposite is to be expected), but unfortunately for the Ukraine it had to choose between Russia and the West anyway for reasons completely outside of its own control.

    The EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014 which is of course what led to the previous government to reject this offer. But now that the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.

    And EU membership, which won't happen, isn't necessary for Western integration or economic success.

    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014

    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led. There has been some change in a positive direction after 2014, due to Ukraine being backed up against a wall; it has been forced to build a more effective army, for example.

    There have of course been patriots in Ukraine but these have largely been excluded from political and economic power.

    As for 2014 – Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.

    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west’s advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact. This is a very post-national argument. In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.

    I agree with the rest of your post.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson


    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led.
     
    Fair point.

    The difference between Russia and the Ukraine is that in Russia the state took control of the oligarchs. In the Ukraine the oligarchs took over the state with abysmal results.


    As for 2014 – Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.
     
    The EU's deal was very, very bad. The EU wasn't even offering a billion, and they wanted catastrophic increases in utility prices and catastrophic cuts in pensions. The agreement also included a lot of language about "security" sure to trigger Moscow (which of course it did).

    Wasn't Russia offering $25 billion?

    The Ukraine's elites in the past always refused to allow the hryvnia to plummet to a reasonable value because of the negative impact it would have had on their own fortunes. Its devaluation is a good outcome which the crisis forced on the country.


    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west’s advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact.
     
    I don't know that this is due so much to the Soviet legacy as it has to do with resource endowments. The Donets Basin is after all where the coal and iron are. No different than development that was once concentrated in the Ruhr Area, the Midlands, or the Rustbelt.

    Soviet legacy I suppose comes into play in that the COMECON economies never went through the "steel crisis", the energy crisis, or offshoring.

    But had Eastern Europe gone through that it wouldn't logically have resulted in more development in Western Ukraine. In the West itself prosperity shifted from heavy industrial centers to financial, political, and technological centers.

    Generally this meant shifting from areas well endowed with coal and iron to preindustrial power centers like London, Paris, and New York. The special cases here being Bavaria and California.

    So Moscow (just as in the Russian Federation itself), or in an independent Ukraine, I assume Kiev.


    In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.
     
    In economic terms however the rustbelt is a lot more like the Donets Basin, and there is no California in the Ukraine at all.
    , @for-the-record
    Yet thanks to the electoral college

    Speaking of the Electoral College, what do the cognoscenti here think of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact which would revolutionize the electoral system in the US, and assure that a Trump-like candidate will never be elected in the future? Under the "Compact" states would be obligated to give their entire electoral vote to the popular vote winner (recall that Hillary won by 2.9 million). The measure will go into effect once states with a cumulative total of 270 electoral votes approve it -- so far the total is at 172. Colorado and New Mexico will almost certainly sign on in the near future, bringing the total to 186. It is probably unlikely that the remaining 84 votes will be found before November 2020, but a Democratic swing at the state level in 2020 could assure its implementation for the 2024 election. And as I understand it, once it comes into effect it is permanent.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Bills_in_current_session
  50. @Anonymous
    You are assuming the West maintains its economic lead and doesn't collapse.

    If the West cannot dole out aid and economic benefits, what good is it to ally with them?

    Meanwhile Russia through Eurasia will become much more powerful economically.

    The West will not collapse and, theoretically, if it would collapse so would China and therefore Russia.

  51. @Beckow
    Countries run by retards don't do well, no matter what the resources and potential - check out Venezuela for a recent example.

    Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination...
     
    ...for Ukrainian workers. I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads - all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east - there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere - they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine - why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.

    EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014...the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.
     
    I agree, that's what happened. The forever shallow analysis in the West is about slogans 'Europe or Asiatic barbarism'. What is ignored are the horrible conditions that EU offered to Yanukovitch, cheap doesn't start to describe it. EU had an upper hand and they don't think much of Ukrainians - they think of them as accidentally 'white' Somalis, or lower. Western integration can take many forms, the one Ukraine is currently pursuing is literally the lowest form - cheap labor, sell resources, the comprador class in Kiev gets rich.

    Lack of self-esteem always has consequences, Ukrainians are living with them right now.

    Countries run by retards don’t do well, no matter what the resources and potential – check out Venezuela for a recent example.

    Venezuela is not only run by retards but also populated by retards. Despite its (overrated) oil resources, the country is hopeless.

    There’s also some sort of cultural problem with Latin American smart fractions and elites.

    Many times in the past two centuries (or really–FIVE centuries), various Latin American countries have been run by their smart fractions rather than democracies.

    The abysmal results speak for themselves.

    A failed and hopeless civilization which ought to be liquidated and replaced by Americans. Now impossible unfortunately.

    …for Ukrainian workers.

    Which will lower the Ukraine’s unemployment rate and result in foreign remittance income. Eventually some Ukrainians will also return with their European pensions. If the Ukraine improves its governance, some will also return to start businesses.

    I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east – there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.

    This is all true, but not insurmountable. Western capital after all built just-in-time supply chains across the Pacific Ocean.

    And not all of the Ukraine’s opportunities require improve roads either. The country is already becoming a destination for IT outsourcing. The Ukraine’s agro-export opportunities require mainly legal reforms rather than investment in infrastructure (though some is needed for farm roads, ports, silos, etc.).

    • Replies: @Beckow

    ...Venezuela is not only run by retards but also populated by retards.
     
    They do well in the Miss Universe contests. That's something that could be socialised, or privatised, or whatever. I really don't care what the term is, as long as it happens in the pre-getting-fat Alicia Machado phase.

    The growth prospects for Ukraine (sans Russia and EU) can be summarised as farming, IT outsourcing and remittances. Well, farming is an old profession with not much employment these days. It also requires reliable markets, EU is very restrictive (the damn French), Russia won't be buying, that pretty much leaves Middle East.

    IT outsourcing is not a panacea - 2-3% of any economy max.

    Remittances are poverty alms - countries living of remittances, e.g. Philippines, Bangladesh or Guatemala tend to have miserable public infrastructure and a few isolated rich communities where the money from abroad flows. There is nothing to tax since the economic activity is abroad.

    I think Ukraine is too rich to truly collapse. It will simply stagnate at 1/4 to 1/3 of living standards of its neighbours. Then next Maidan. By 2100 we could have a dozen Maidans in Ukraine until they run out of color ideas. It is a very sad situation, like dealing with people who simply won't accept reality and instead do an occasional temper tantrum interspersed with passive fatalism.

  52. @Anatoly Karlin
    Curiously, if you overlay a graph of Vietnamese vs. Indian GDP per capita growth, they will match almost one for one.

    Which, I suppose, testifies to the importance of smart fractions.

    Also East Asians also seem to consistently do around 5 IQ points lower than what is suggested by their IQs.

    Thus the Ukraine would have more skilled engineers, welders, machine tool operators, tool & die makers, etc.
     
    All true, but the sort of enterprises where they are needed would require large capital investments, and people are loathe to that in the Ukraine for understandable reasons. (To a lesser extent, that is true of Russia as well).

    All true, but the sort of enterprises where they are needed would require large capital investments, and people are loathe to that in the Ukraine for understandable reasons. (To a lesser extent, that is true of Russia as well).

    True, and no doubt AP and Mr. Hack agree that the Ukraine needs very deep reforms.

    But there’s low hanging fruit to be plucked in IT and agriculture.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  53. @AP

    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014
     
    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led. There has been some change in a positive direction after 2014, due to Ukraine being backed up against a wall; it has been forced to build a more effective army, for example.

    There have of course been patriots in Ukraine but these have largely been excluded from political and economic power.

    As for 2014 - Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.

    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west's advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact. This is a very post-national argument. In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.

    I agree with the rest of your post.

    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led.

    Fair point.

    The difference between Russia and the Ukraine is that in Russia the state took control of the oligarchs. In the Ukraine the oligarchs took over the state with abysmal results.

    As for 2014 – Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.

    The EU’s deal was very, very bad. The EU wasn’t even offering a billion, and they wanted catastrophic increases in utility prices and catastrophic cuts in pensions. The agreement also included a lot of language about “security” sure to trigger Moscow (which of course it did).

    Wasn’t Russia offering $25 billion?

    The Ukraine’s elites in the past always refused to allow the hryvnia to plummet to a reasonable value because of the negative impact it would have had on their own fortunes. Its devaluation is a good outcome which the crisis forced on the country.

    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west’s advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact.

    I don’t know that this is due so much to the Soviet legacy as it has to do with resource endowments. The Donets Basin is after all where the coal and iron are. No different than development that was once concentrated in the Ruhr Area, the Midlands, or the Rustbelt.

    Soviet legacy I suppose comes into play in that the COMECON economies never went through the “steel crisis”, the energy crisis, or offshoring.

    But had Eastern Europe gone through that it wouldn’t logically have resulted in more development in Western Ukraine. In the West itself prosperity shifted from heavy industrial centers to financial, political, and technological centers.

    Generally this meant shifting from areas well endowed with coal and iron to preindustrial power centers like London, Paris, and New York. The special cases here being Bavaria and California.

    So Moscow (just as in the Russian Federation itself), or in an independent Ukraine, I assume Kiev.

    In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.

    In economic terms however the rustbelt is a lot more like the Donets Basin, and there is no California in the Ukraine at all.

    • Replies: @AP

    The EU’s deal was very, very bad. The EU wasn’t even offering a billion, and they wanted catastrophic increases in utility prices and catastrophic cuts in pensions. The agreement also included a lot of language about “security” sure to trigger Moscow (which of course it did).
     
    Doubling the utility prices would have still left Ukraine with the cheapest utility prices in Europe IIRC. But the reforms that would have resulted in doubling the utility prices also made it harder for government and gas officials to steal so the overall effects were positive.

    Wasn’t Russia offering $25 billion?
     
    It was $15 billion over several years with no strings attached, so basically most of it would have gone to offshore accounts. Russia was buying loyalty and access for Russian firms to buy up UIkrainian ones and entangle Ukraine into Russia's web, while paying the Ukrainian elites handsomely.

    The Ukraine’s elites in the past always refused to allow the hryvnia to plummet to a reasonable value because of the negative impact it would have had on their own fortunes. Its devaluation is a good outcome which the crisis forced on the country
     
    Good point.

    I don’t know that this is due so much to the Soviet legacy as it has to do with resource endowments. The Donets Basin is after all where the coal and iron are. No different than development that was once concentrated in the Ruhr Area, the Midlands, or the Rustbelt.
     
    Ukraine's legacy of this region being the most highly developed is a Soviet one. Galicuia hjad achieved literacy a generation before Russian or Soviet ruled Ukraine, and per capita GRP in Galicia was higher than that of Russia in the early 20th century (also higher than in Portugal, Greece, etc.) Western Ukriane had a very developed gas industry which was largely ruined or cannibalized. It is being revived and there is optimistic talk of Ukraine achieving gas self-sufficiency in 2023 or so. Lviv and Kiev are Ukraine's IT centers (Lviv is the leader per capita). While Lviv did produce Soviet TVs and some secret missile electronics it was largely neglected under the Soviets. I visited in the 90s and it was simply a beautiful but ruined place, a crumbling dump with nothing going on, no electricity after 9 PM, no hot water during parts of the day, etc.

    In economic terms however the rustbelt is a lot more like the Donets Basin, and there is no California in the Ukraine at all.
     
    Correct. The analogy was that this region produced a very high share of GDP, as CA and NY do for the USA relative to places like Wisconsin. Ukriane prioritizing the needs of Donbas at the expense of the historical core wuild be like America being run for and by Californians or New Yorkers at the expense of people in the heartland. Ideallly there would be a solution that would work for everyone but Ukraine did not have that choice.
  54. AP says:
    @Beckow
    Countries run by retards don't do well, no matter what the resources and potential - check out Venezuela for a recent example.

    Visegrad countries growing ever richer, the Ukraine is a logical destination...
     
    ...for Ukrainian workers. I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads - all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east - there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere - they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine - why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.

    EU made the mistake of making the Ukraine a laughably bad offer in 2014...the country has adopted Russophobia as official state policy, Western integration it shall have.
     
    I agree, that's what happened. The forever shallow analysis in the West is about slogans 'Europe or Asiatic barbarism'. What is ignored are the horrible conditions that EU offered to Yanukovitch, cheap doesn't start to describe it. EU had an upper hand and they don't think much of Ukrainians - they think of them as accidentally 'white' Somalis, or lower. Western integration can take many forms, the one Ukraine is currently pursuing is literally the lowest form - cheap labor, sell resources, the comprador class in Kiev gets rich.

    Lack of self-esteem always has consequences, Ukrainians are living with them right now.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?).

    Lviv is already well connected to Visegrad and links are growing. A new railway tunnel through the Carpathians caries up to 100 trains daily. Lviv’s exports to the EU are up 22% last year.

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-emerges-from-isolation

    On land, more Ukrainians traveled by train to Europe than to Russia last year for the first time since Czarist railroads were built in the late nineteenth century. Traveling on 20 new EU-bound trains launched last year, Ukraine-EU passenger traffic doubled. By contrast, Ukraine-Russia rail passenger traffic contracted by 15 percent.

    For cars, Poland and Slovakia are building four lane divided highways that will reach Ukraine’s western borders in the early 2020s. Even without these highways, ads in the Kyiv metro advertise one way bus tickets from Kyiv to Warsaw for the equivalent of $8.

    Three years ago, Moscow pundits smirked that Ukraine was shooting itself in the foot when Kyiv banned flights between Ukraine and Russia.

    Now Ukraine enjoys the biggest aviation boom in Europe today.

    Take Kharkiv airport. In the Soviet era, it was built to fly Ukrainians to Moscow and Leningrad. Three years after losing all Russia routes, Kharkiv air traffic nearly hit a record 1 million passengers last year–20 times the 2002 level. Instead of flying workers to jobs in Russia, a whole generation of Russian-speaking Kharkivites are flying on LOT Polish Airlines to Warsaw, on Wizz Air to Gdansk, Katowice, and Wroclaw, or on Ernest Airlines to Milan and Rome.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.

    In Poland, Ukrainian workers make as much as Polish workers in the same jobs. They take the place of Poles who work in Germany or the UK. However in Ukraine salaries are 1/4 what they are in Poland, so there is still incentive to build factories in Ukraine. And this is exactly what is happening – lots of factories being built and expanded all over western and now central Ukraine (for example Bader the German car seat manufacturer built its second factory in Lviv oblast last year). So Ukrainians who are unwilling to do 6 month stints in Poland have options at home.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn't a spring make.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine. I am not sure what you mean by a 'new road' from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians - there is nothing there, we don't even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains. How do you move cargo? Are people taking it as luggage on those buses? Are you serious? Have seen the backups on the Ukrainian-EU borders?

    The infrastructure isn't there an won't be for decades - Ukraine has no money and EU has not offered to pay for it. The outsourcing IT is a niche business - you will not build an economy based on call centers, it is a very fluid and competitive business. Try again.

  55. AP says:
    @Thorfinnsson


    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led.
     
    Fair point.

    The difference between Russia and the Ukraine is that in Russia the state took control of the oligarchs. In the Ukraine the oligarchs took over the state with abysmal results.


    As for 2014 – Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.
     
    The EU's deal was very, very bad. The EU wasn't even offering a billion, and they wanted catastrophic increases in utility prices and catastrophic cuts in pensions. The agreement also included a lot of language about "security" sure to trigger Moscow (which of course it did).

    Wasn't Russia offering $25 billion?

    The Ukraine's elites in the past always refused to allow the hryvnia to plummet to a reasonable value because of the negative impact it would have had on their own fortunes. Its devaluation is a good outcome which the crisis forced on the country.


    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west’s advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact.
     
    I don't know that this is due so much to the Soviet legacy as it has to do with resource endowments. The Donets Basin is after all where the coal and iron are. No different than development that was once concentrated in the Ruhr Area, the Midlands, or the Rustbelt.

    Soviet legacy I suppose comes into play in that the COMECON economies never went through the "steel crisis", the energy crisis, or offshoring.

    But had Eastern Europe gone through that it wouldn't logically have resulted in more development in Western Ukraine. In the West itself prosperity shifted from heavy industrial centers to financial, political, and technological centers.

    Generally this meant shifting from areas well endowed with coal and iron to preindustrial power centers like London, Paris, and New York. The special cases here being Bavaria and California.

    So Moscow (just as in the Russian Federation itself), or in an independent Ukraine, I assume Kiev.


    In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.
     
    In economic terms however the rustbelt is a lot more like the Donets Basin, and there is no California in the Ukraine at all.

    The EU’s deal was very, very bad. The EU wasn’t even offering a billion, and they wanted catastrophic increases in utility prices and catastrophic cuts in pensions. The agreement also included a lot of language about “security” sure to trigger Moscow (which of course it did).

    Doubling the utility prices would have still left Ukraine with the cheapest utility prices in Europe IIRC. But the reforms that would have resulted in doubling the utility prices also made it harder for government and gas officials to steal so the overall effects were positive.

    Wasn’t Russia offering $25 billion?

    It was $15 billion over several years with no strings attached, so basically most of it would have gone to offshore accounts. Russia was buying loyalty and access for Russian firms to buy up UIkrainian ones and entangle Ukraine into Russia’s web, while paying the Ukrainian elites handsomely.

    The Ukraine’s elites in the past always refused to allow the hryvnia to plummet to a reasonable value because of the negative impact it would have had on their own fortunes. Its devaluation is a good outcome which the crisis forced on the country

    Good point.

    I don’t know that this is due so much to the Soviet legacy as it has to do with resource endowments. The Donets Basin is after all where the coal and iron are. No different than development that was once concentrated in the Ruhr Area, the Midlands, or the Rustbelt.

    Ukraine’s legacy of this region being the most highly developed is a Soviet one. Galicuia hjad achieved literacy a generation before Russian or Soviet ruled Ukraine, and per capita GRP in Galicia was higher than that of Russia in the early 20th century (also higher than in Portugal, Greece, etc.) Western Ukriane had a very developed gas industry which was largely ruined or cannibalized. It is being revived and there is optimistic talk of Ukraine achieving gas self-sufficiency in 2023 or so. Lviv and Kiev are Ukraine’s IT centers (Lviv is the leader per capita). While Lviv did produce Soviet TVs and some secret missile electronics it was largely neglected under the Soviets. I visited in the 90s and it was simply a beautiful but ruined place, a crumbling dump with nothing going on, no electricity after 9 PM, no hot water during parts of the day, etc.

    In economic terms however the rustbelt is a lot more like the Donets Basin, and there is no California in the Ukraine at all.

    Correct. The analogy was that this region produced a very high share of GDP, as CA and NY do for the USA relative to places like Wisconsin. Ukriane prioritizing the needs of Donbas at the expense of the historical core wuild be like America being run for and by Californians or New Yorkers at the expense of people in the heartland. Ideallly there would be a solution that would work for everyone but Ukraine did not have that choice.

  56. @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia (but I don't know - the US will be in deep Russophobia during the 2020s, and a lot will depend on whether the Euros will go along with them). Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine's incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.

    However, I suspect that the Georgia analogy may apply more than Russophiles would wish it to. While Georgia became more "practical" after Saakashvili's ouster, it has maintained a firm Euro-Atlantic orientation ever since. While all Ukrainian politicians' ratings have collapsed into the gutter, the pro-NATO/EU orientation is probably there to stay indefinitely. So I don't know how exactly time is on Russia's side.

    I think that relations will slowly warm up with Russia

    There are two examples – Moldova (from which Transnistria separated during the mini-war in the 90s) and Georgia (from which Abkhazia and North Ossetia separated during a really brutal war in the 90s). Georgia (unlike Ukraine) faced a real ethnic conflict (and suffered a complete defeat in it) – more than 200,000 Georgians were expelled from Abkhazia (relative to the entire population – a huge figure comparable to the expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe after world war 2). I cannot imagine what factors can make the political evolution of Ukraine different from the evolution of Georgia and Moldova.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  57. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    From personal experience, all that the average and better-informed-than-most English-speaker knows about Belarus is that Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    Hopefully Herr Karlin will soon be able to inform us further on Belarus.

    all that the average and better-informed-than-most English-speaker knows about Belarus is that Lukashenko hates gays and likes digging potatoes.

    And, I might add, at least for those of a certain age, that it was the birthplace of Meyer Lansky.

  58. @AP

    While the Ukraine is run by retards and obviously made a very stupid decision in 2014
     
    It has not been run by retards (other than perhaps Yanukovich) but by people who have placed personal interests above national interests to a much larger degree than have the elites in most other countries and who have had little to no loyalty to the state they led. There has been some change in a positive direction after 2014, due to Ukraine being backed up against a wall; it has been forced to build a more effective army, for example.

    There have of course been patriots in Ukraine but these have largely been excluded from political and economic power.

    As for 2014 - Ukraine had two mutually exclusive choices, a bad deal with the EU or a bad deal with Russia. It chose the deal that was better for the ethnic Ukrainian parts of the country at the expense of the more Russian and deracinated parts. The alternative would have had the reverse effect. So the Ukrainian state moved in the direction that prioritized the needs of the Ukrainian people over the non-Ukrainian people within its borders. This seems as it should be. And 2014 has indeed resulted in unprecennted improvement in western Ukraine; while money-poor due to the cheap currency, Lviv now resembles a Visegrad city of 10 years ago.

    Now due to the Soviet legacy the less-Ukrainian eastern parts had a larger economy, so someone will argue that on balance the state as a whole made a worse choice because the suffering of the east was geater than the west's advantage in terms of the magnitude of the negative vs. positive impact. This is a very post-national argument. In the USA the deracinated multicultural places on the coasts, like CA, contribute more to the GDP than does the American heartland. Yet thanks to the electoral college, America still prioritises the needs of the heartland over those of the coasts to an extent. So the revolt that threw out Yanukovich had something in common with the one that brought Trump to power. Or Brexit. Except these countries have peaceful electoral means for the majority of natives to impose their will.

    I agree with the rest of your post.

    Yet thanks to the electoral college

    Speaking of the Electoral College, what do the cognoscenti here think of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact which would revolutionize the electoral system in the US, and assure that a Trump-like candidate will never be elected in the future? Under the “Compact” states would be obligated to give their entire electoral vote to the popular vote winner (recall that Hillary won by 2.9 million). The measure will go into effect once states with a cumulative total of 270 electoral votes approve it — so far the total is at 172. Colorado and New Mexico will almost certainly sign on in the near future, bringing the total to 186. It is probably unlikely that the remaining 84 votes will be found before November 2020, but a Democratic swing at the state level in 2020 could assure its implementation for the 2024 election. And as I understand it, once it comes into effect it is permanent.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Bills_in_current_session

    • Replies: @AP
    Almost all of these states are democratic ones. It would be very funny if as a result these states would one day send Republican electors despite their voters choosing a Democrat for president.
  59. AP says:
    @Beckow
    It is nice to see your optimism, but your are shading a not very good situation. To be at 2014 purchasing power after 5 years is nothing to boast about. I agree that the Western Ukraine and Kiev have done better - they are benefitting from the westward shift of everything. But as a whole it is not a prosperous place - 2014 was already dismal, that's why people came out on Maidan. Not to keep it the same.

    You know my position: EU offered a cheap deal. For once Kiev acted rationally and asked for better terms via postponement. Partially stirred by Western support, partially by accumulated anger, crowds came out on Maidan yelling for 'Europe at any price' fatally undermining Kiev's negotiating position. Then it was downhill - stupid language law, over-heated and premature anti-Russian rhetoric, lack of planning. Russia moved first, the Western sponsors peeped like a stabbed piglet and did nothing. Since then it is all consequence management.

    If I am in a middle of a negotiation and I am offered a bad deal, but my whole family starts screaming and shouting that 'we want the deal no matter what', it is likely that I will get screwed. EU totally took advantage of Kiev's weakness. Then the emotional mistakes by the Maidan leaders made it worse.

    Whether NS2 happens Dec 2019, Jan 2020, or even in 2021, is of little importance, Russia and Germany are playing the long game. The strategic balance will shift - no need to ship through Ukraine, or ship only minimally, and that means nothing for Kiev to negotiate with. Germans took care of their own needs and the distribution is heading towards Baltic. All of central-eastern Europe will re-orient over time towards the German Baltic coast. There is no reason why there wouldn't be North Stream III, that ship has sailed and Kiev lost. The LNG terminals, like the one in Poland, only reinforce this new energy reality - Ukraine is no longer a necessary part of transit.

    But miracles can happen, we agreed to wait a few years to see how prosperous Ukraine will be. I will here.

    To be at 2014 purchasing power after 5 years is nothing to boast about.

    No, but it is also not a collapse. While the average is at the 2014, the West is above its 2014 level but the east is below.

    I agree that the Western Ukraine and Kiev have done better – they are benefitting from the westward shift of everything.

    Yes. And whom should the Ukrainian state serve more – the semi-Ukrainian East or the Ukrainian West and Center?

    But as a whole it is not a prosperous place – 2014 was already dismal, that’s why people came out on Maidan. Not to keep it the same.

    The people who came out to the Maidan were central and western Ukrainians, who after 25 years (not including 5 years Yushchenko semi-respite) decided to finally take control of their country, and their regions have seen improvement since and because of Maidan. As for “whole country” and how unfair this is the easterners – the easterners ran it for most of the 25 years and ran it into the ground.

    If I am in a middle of a negotiation and I am offered a bad deal, but my whole family starts screaming and shouting that ‘we want the deal no matter what‘, it is likely that I will get screwed. EU totally took advantage of Kiev’s weakness.

    This is a good point and true. But the Russian deal wasn’t much better for regular people. A good deal with the EU would have better than a bad one, but a bad deal with EU was better than a bad one with Russia.

    But miracles can happen, we agreed to wait a few years to see how prosperous Ukraine will be. I will here.

    Not you AFAIK, but many pro-Russians were insisting in 2014 and 2015 that Ukraine would collapse in 3-4 years. That time has passed and certainly Ukraine has not collapsed. Without serious corruption reforms I do not expect Ukraine’s economy to boom but I do expect steady 2-4% growth every year. This is not stagnation – stagnation would be 0% to 1% growth. This growth will not be evenly distributed across the regions but will be higher in the West and Center and lower in the East.

  60. @for-the-record
    Yet thanks to the electoral college

    Speaking of the Electoral College, what do the cognoscenti here think of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact which would revolutionize the electoral system in the US, and assure that a Trump-like candidate will never be elected in the future? Under the "Compact" states would be obligated to give their entire electoral vote to the popular vote winner (recall that Hillary won by 2.9 million). The measure will go into effect once states with a cumulative total of 270 electoral votes approve it -- so far the total is at 172. Colorado and New Mexico will almost certainly sign on in the near future, bringing the total to 186. It is probably unlikely that the remaining 84 votes will be found before November 2020, but a Democratic swing at the state level in 2020 could assure its implementation for the 2024 election. And as I understand it, once it comes into effect it is permanent.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Bills_in_current_session

    Almost all of these states are democratic ones. It would be very funny if as a result these states would one day send Republican electors despite their voters choosing a Democrat for president.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    It would be very funny if as a result these states would one day send Republican electors despite their voters choosing a Democrat for president.

    This is very unlikely I think. Given the projected demographic evolution, it will be increasingly difficult in the future for Republicans to gain a popular vote majority, although they will still have the possibility of pulling off a Trump-type (or Bush 2000) Electoral College majority. This is of course why Democrats are pushing for the abolition of the Electoral College, either by constitutional amendment or through the "back door" via the NPVIC. And the NPVIC is a whole lot easier, as it requires the approval of only a minority of states (theoretically as few as 11), compared to the 38 necessary for a constitutional amendment.
  61. @AP

    How a country got into a bad position shouldn’t be relevant. If two countries have the same potential (based on their average IQ) but one country is more than two times wealthier per capita than the other country, the other country should be expected to grow much more rapidly since it has more potential to grow than the first country has.
     
    If it was a rapid relative decline followed by correction, sure. But this has been 20+ years in the making, of falling behind.

    Is Hungary even close to catching up to Austria?

    Is Hungary even close to catching up to Austria?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita_growth_rate

    No, but its GDP PPP per capita growth rate appears to be twice that of Austria–which is certainly an encouraging sign since it means that the GDP PPP per capita gap between Austria and Hungary is going to narrow over time.

    • Replies: @AP
    At this rate when will it catch up - 50 years after the Communist disaster?
  62. @Mr. XYZ

    Is Hungary even close to catching up to Austria?
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita_growth_rate

    No, but its GDP PPP per capita growth rate appears to be twice that of Austria--which is certainly an encouraging sign since it means that the GDP PPP per capita gap between Austria and Hungary is going to narrow over time.

    At this rate when will it catch up – 50 years after the Communist disaster?

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    Yeah, possibly. Of course, the same thing would have also likely been true for countries such as Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. Thus, Hungary would not have been particularly behind relative to its neighbors.
  63. @AP
    Almost all of these states are democratic ones. It would be very funny if as a result these states would one day send Republican electors despite their voters choosing a Democrat for president.

    It would be very funny if as a result these states would one day send Republican electors despite their voters choosing a Democrat for president.

    This is very unlikely I think. Given the projected demographic evolution, it will be increasingly difficult in the future for Republicans to gain a popular vote majority, although they will still have the possibility of pulling off a Trump-type (or Bush 2000) Electoral College majority. This is of course why Democrats are pushing for the abolition of the Electoral College, either by constitutional amendment or through the “back door” via the NPVIC. And the NPVIC is a whole lot easier, as it requires the approval of only a minority of states (theoretically as few as 11), compared to the 38 necessary for a constitutional amendment.

  64. @AP
    At this rate when will it catch up - 50 years after the Communist disaster?

    Yeah, possibly. Of course, the same thing would have also likely been true for countries such as Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. Thus, Hungary would not have been particularly behind relative to its neighbors.

  65. @AP

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?).
     
    Lviv is already well connected to Visegrad and links are growing. A new railway tunnel through the Carpathians caries up to 100 trains daily. Lviv's exports to the EU are up 22% last year.

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-emerges-from-isolation

    On land, more Ukrainians traveled by train to Europe than to Russia last year for the first time since Czarist railroads were built in the late nineteenth century. Traveling on 20 new EU-bound trains launched last year, Ukraine-EU passenger traffic doubled. By contrast, Ukraine-Russia rail passenger traffic contracted by 15 percent.

    For cars, Poland and Slovakia are building four lane divided highways that will reach Ukraine’s western borders in the early 2020s. Even without these highways, ads in the Kyiv metro advertise one way bus tickets from Kyiv to Warsaw for the equivalent of $8.

    Three years ago, Moscow pundits smirked that Ukraine was shooting itself in the foot when Kyiv banned flights between Ukraine and Russia.

    Now Ukraine enjoys the biggest aviation boom in Europe today.

    Take Kharkiv airport. In the Soviet era, it was built to fly Ukrainians to Moscow and Leningrad. Three years after losing all Russia routes, Kharkiv air traffic nearly hit a record 1 million passengers last year–20 times the 2002 level. Instead of flying workers to jobs in Russia, a whole generation of Russian-speaking Kharkivites are flying on LOT Polish Airlines to Warsaw, on Wizz Air to Gdansk, Katowice, and Wroclaw, or on Ernest Airlines to Milan and Rome.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.
     
    In Poland, Ukrainian workers make as much as Polish workers in the same jobs. They take the place of Poles who work in Germany or the UK. However in Ukraine salaries are 1/4 what they are in Poland, so there is still incentive to build factories in Ukraine. And this is exactly what is happening - lots of factories being built and expanded all over western and now central Ukraine (for example Bader the German car seat manufacturer built its second factory in Lviv oblast last year). So Ukrainians who are unwilling to do 6 month stints in Poland have options at home.

    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn’t a spring make.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine. I am not sure what you mean by a ‘new road’ from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians – there is nothing there, we don’t even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains. How do you move cargo? Are people taking it as luggage on those buses? Are you serious? Have seen the backups on the Ukrainian-EU borders?

    The infrastructure isn’t there an won’t be for decades – Ukraine has no money and EU has not offered to pay for it. The outsourcing IT is a niche business – you will not build an economy based on call centers, it is a very fluid and competitive business. Try again.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    ... there is nothing there, we don’t even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.
     
    Was amazed, but it looks like you're right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.

    https://i.redd.it/5wyzzv7kbfb01.jpg

    The Low Countries look like that Civilization game where you can cover all your tiles in roads by the end game.

    Polish progress is amazing. I recall reading they had no or almost no freeways as late as the late 2000s.

    Not that Russia has anything to write home about, though the picture as of 2018 at least looks less disastrous.

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2018-european-part.png

    Plans for 2024:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2024.png
    , @AP

    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn’t a spring make.
     
    While Lviv is doing the best it is not just Lviv, but all of Western Ukraine, and central Ukraine west of the Dnipro are doing a lot better. Kiev is all right also.

    Essentially all the parts of Ukraine that participated in Maidan are benefiting as a result of Maidan.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine.
     
    There is one in Poland (see AK's response). They are building one in Slovakia, according to the article I posted.

    I am not sure what you mean by a ‘new road’ from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians – there is nothing there
     
    Nonsense, there a new rail tunnel in the Carpathians, opened in May 2018:

    https://www.ebrd.com/news/2018/opening-of-beskyd-tunnel-moves-ukraine-closer-to-europe.html

    With the opening of the new Beskyd tunnel in the Carpathian Mountains today, Ukraine has made a major step in closer integration with pan-European transport networks.

    The new tunnel crosses the mountains between the towns of Beskid and Skotarske and connects the Ukrainian rail network through a double-track link with the pan-European transport network Corridor V, which will stretch from Venice/Trieste in northern Italy via Slovenia and Hungary to Lviv in western Ukraine. The tunnel will take on 60 per cent of rail traffic between Ukraine and the EU.

    The construction was financed by the EBRD with a US$ 40 million loan, while the European Investment Bank (EIB) extended a €55 million loan. The project was also supported by a grant provided by the European Union (EU) and technical assistance provided by the EU and Austria.

    It replaces a 130-year-old railway tunnel built under the Austro-Hungarian empire and will almost quadruple the current capacity from 12 trains per day to 46. The tunnel will significantly increase facilities for the export of Ukrainian products, while reducing journey times between Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and a major business hub, and Chop, a town near the borders of Hungary and the Slovak Republic.

    Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko opened the tunnel today. The EBRD was represented by Sevki Acuner, Country Director, Ukraine, who said: “The new tunnel is a positive example of the contemporary relationship between Ukraine and Europe. It will unblock the worst bottleneck in the east-west transport corridor. More importantly, it symbolises Ukraine’s aspiration to be integrated into the EU economy and to become part of the 21st century European family. This aspiration is now supported by proper action.”

    Further key features of the new seismically stable tunnel:

    It was constructed using 130,000 tonnes of concrete and 8,000 tonnes of steel
    It is 1,765 metres long, 10.5 metres high and 8.5 metres wide
    It is the first public sector project in Ukraine under the construction standards of the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC - Fédération Internationale Des Ingénieurs-Conseils).

    [Other article I linked to claimed 100 trains daily - AP]

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains.
     
    I posted about highway construction. It's happening.
    , @Hibernian
    Lviv seemed like an increasingly prosperous city (signs of both wealth and poverty) when I went there courtesy of Uncle Sam in the summer of 2003.
  66. @Thorfinnsson


    Countries run by retards don’t do well, no matter what the resources and potential – check out Venezuela for a recent example.
     
    Venezuela is not only run by retards but also populated by retards. Despite its (overrated) oil resources, the country is hopeless.

    There's also some sort of cultural problem with Latin American smart fractions and elites.

    Many times in the past two centuries (or really--FIVE centuries), various Latin American countries have been run by their smart fractions rather than democracies.

    The abysmal results speak for themselves.

    A failed and hopeless civilization which ought to be liquidated and replaced by Americans. Now impossible unfortunately.


    …for Ukrainian workers.
     
    Which will lower the Ukraine's unemployment rate and result in foreign remittance income. Eventually some Ukrainians will also return with their European pensions. If the Ukraine improves its governance, some will also return to start businesses.


    I know a bit about Visegrad prosperity, and a lot of it is based on good supply lines and logistics. Within Visegrad, the prosperity is centered close to German and Austrian borders. Proximity and good infrastructure matter. Poznan, Prague, Budapest are rich, eastern Poland not so much. Most areas bordering Ukraine are the most economically depressed and poor parts of Visegrad.

    The problem are roads, communications, railroads – all of it missing when one wants to go east or to Ukraine. It will take 10 years and an investment of 50-100 billion euros just to connect even Western Ukraine to the Visegrad countries (will EU pay?). Until then very few companies will go there. A big issue is that V4 has not invested in its east – there are no roads in eastern V4 to connect to for Ukraine.

    What we have in V4 are Ukrainian workers and service people everywhere – they come, most live in miserable temp housing working on contracts. It is something, but it actually delays any potential move to Ukraine – why go there if the workers are coming to you? It is much cheaper.
     
    This is all true, but not insurmountable. Western capital after all built just-in-time supply chains across the Pacific Ocean.

    And not all of the Ukraine's opportunities require improve roads either. The country is already becoming a destination for IT outsourcing. The Ukraine's agro-export opportunities require mainly legal reforms rather than investment in infrastructure (though some is needed for farm roads, ports, silos, etc.).

    …Venezuela is not only run by retards but also populated by retards.

    They do well in the Miss Universe contests. That’s something that could be socialised, or privatised, or whatever. I really don’t care what the term is, as long as it happens in the pre-getting-fat Alicia Machado phase.

    The growth prospects for Ukraine (sans Russia and EU) can be summarised as farming, IT outsourcing and remittances. Well, farming is an old profession with not much employment these days. It also requires reliable markets, EU is very restrictive (the damn French), Russia won’t be buying, that pretty much leaves Middle East.

    IT outsourcing is not a panacea – 2-3% of any economy max.

    Remittances are poverty alms – countries living of remittances, e.g. Philippines, Bangladesh or Guatemala tend to have miserable public infrastructure and a few isolated rich communities where the money from abroad flows. There is nothing to tax since the economic activity is abroad.

    I think Ukraine is too rich to truly collapse. It will simply stagnate at 1/4 to 1/3 of living standards of its neighbours. Then next Maidan. By 2100 we could have a dozen Maidans in Ukraine until they run out of color ideas. It is a very sad situation, like dealing with people who simply won’t accept reality and instead do an occasional temper tantrum interspersed with passive fatalism.

    • Replies: @DFH

    They do well in the Miss Universe contests.
     
    My A-level Spanish teacher always used to say that Venezuelan and Thai(?) women were the most attractive. I don't see it myself to be honest.
  67. @Beckow

    ...Venezuela is not only run by retards but also populated by retards.
     
    They do well in the Miss Universe contests. That's something that could be socialised, or privatised, or whatever. I really don't care what the term is, as long as it happens in the pre-getting-fat Alicia Machado phase.

    The growth prospects for Ukraine (sans Russia and EU) can be summarised as farming, IT outsourcing and remittances. Well, farming is an old profession with not much employment these days. It also requires reliable markets, EU is very restrictive (the damn French), Russia won't be buying, that pretty much leaves Middle East.

    IT outsourcing is not a panacea - 2-3% of any economy max.

    Remittances are poverty alms - countries living of remittances, e.g. Philippines, Bangladesh or Guatemala tend to have miserable public infrastructure and a few isolated rich communities where the money from abroad flows. There is nothing to tax since the economic activity is abroad.

    I think Ukraine is too rich to truly collapse. It will simply stagnate at 1/4 to 1/3 of living standards of its neighbours. Then next Maidan. By 2100 we could have a dozen Maidans in Ukraine until they run out of color ideas. It is a very sad situation, like dealing with people who simply won't accept reality and instead do an occasional temper tantrum interspersed with passive fatalism.

    They do well in the Miss Universe contests.

    My A-level Spanish teacher always used to say that Venezuelan and Thai(?) women were the most attractive. I don’t see it myself to be honest.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    Venezuelan women have a short shelf life, but at their peak they truly rock. If one would live only 3-5 years, I would say go for it. Long term it is a bit more problematic. I am not sure about the Thai ones, a bit underdeveloped in most departments, but they might last longer. Your A-level teacher has never been to eastern Europe, a true nirvana if one can put up with the mental yearning bullsh.t that undermines everything. Plus the nose selection is a bit too varied, one has to get lucky, or try just the right angle for viewing. But the figures are worth it.
  68. @Beckow
    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn't a spring make.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine. I am not sure what you mean by a 'new road' from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians - there is nothing there, we don't even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains. How do you move cargo? Are people taking it as luggage on those buses? Are you serious? Have seen the backups on the Ukrainian-EU borders?

    The infrastructure isn't there an won't be for decades - Ukraine has no money and EU has not offered to pay for it. The outsourcing IT is a niche business - you will not build an economy based on call centers, it is a very fluid and competitive business. Try again.

    … there is nothing there, we don’t even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.

    Was amazed, but it looks like you’re right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.

    The Low Countries look like that Civilization game where you can cover all your tiles in roads by the end game.

    Polish progress is amazing. I recall reading they had no or almost no freeways as late as the late 2000s.

    Not that Russia has anything to write home about, though the picture as of 2018 at least looks less disastrous.

    Plans for 2024:

    • Replies: @Beckow
    Russia really need to get going on the freeways and roads. The difference between Moscow-St Petersburg and the rest of the country is among the most dramatic anywhere. One reason is the lack of proper infrastructure - the way to develop countryside is to connect it, to make it more accessible.

    When you cannot move the product efficiently, business activity freezes. My point about Ukraine is that it is not easily accessible to EU companies who could manufacture there. Signing papers with EU doesn't do much, when people look at specifics they evaluate the cost of logistics, they look at how supply chains could be integrated.

    One attractive feature of building better roads is the opportunity for enrichment. Come on oligarchs, get going, this beats siphoning off gas or arms procurement fraud, building freeways is literally like mining for gold (for the ones who are given the contracts). And at the end there are nicer roads. Don't these guys ever study how Americans did it? Road construction contracts are a win-win. They also employ people.

    , @AP

    Was amazed, but it looks like you’re right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.
     
    IIRC the Polish one connects to Lviv.

    Also, there is a nice American-style 4 lane highway from Kiev to Zhytomir, that is not on the map. I've driven on it.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    What do the lines represent? Controlled-access highways with four lanes or better only?

    Looking at the map casually one gets the idea that there are almost no roads on the Scandinavian peninsula aside from the Stockholm-Malmo-Gothenburg-Oslo route.

    I've driven the E4 all the way to the Arctic Circle.

    North of Gavle, it's true that the highway is no longer a controlled-access highway. Given the low population density of Sweden north of Uppland, such a high capacity road makes no sense. Norrland covers 60% of Sweden's landmass but has only 12% of the country's population. Or put in other terms it's twice the size of England but has one-fiftieth of the population.

    Wikipedia helpfully has a photo of the E4 in the sub-Arctic:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/E4_landsv%C3%A4g.jpg

    The road is well maintained and carries the heaviest trucks allowed in Europe year-round.

    Lower population densities necessitate lower capacity roads which are still perfectly adequate. Maps can be misleading in this regard.

  69. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... there is nothing there, we don’t even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.
     
    Was amazed, but it looks like you're right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.

    https://i.redd.it/5wyzzv7kbfb01.jpg

    The Low Countries look like that Civilization game where you can cover all your tiles in roads by the end game.

    Polish progress is amazing. I recall reading they had no or almost no freeways as late as the late 2000s.

    Not that Russia has anything to write home about, though the picture as of 2018 at least looks less disastrous.

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2018-european-part.png

    Plans for 2024:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2024.png

    Russia really need to get going on the freeways and roads. The difference between Moscow-St Petersburg and the rest of the country is among the most dramatic anywhere. One reason is the lack of proper infrastructure – the way to develop countryside is to connect it, to make it more accessible.

    When you cannot move the product efficiently, business activity freezes. My point about Ukraine is that it is not easily accessible to EU companies who could manufacture there. Signing papers with EU doesn’t do much, when people look at specifics they evaluate the cost of logistics, they look at how supply chains could be integrated.

    One attractive feature of building better roads is the opportunity for enrichment. Come on oligarchs, get going, this beats siphoning off gas or arms procurement fraud, building freeways is literally like mining for gold (for the ones who are given the contracts). And at the end there are nicer roads. Don’t these guys ever study how Americans did it? Road construction contracts are a win-win. They also employ people.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @AP

    One attractive feature of building better roads is the opportunity for enrichment. Come on oligarchs, get going, this beats siphoning off gas or arms procurement fraud, building freeways is literally like mining for gold (for the ones who are given the contracts). And at the end there are nicer roads.
     
    They are working on it:

    https://economics.unian.info/2247619-road-works-booming-ukraine-plans-to-change-its-road-map-within-3-years.html



    Next year, the government plans to allocate at least twice as much. The draft state budget-2018 envisages more than UAH 40 billion. "Starting from January 1, 2018, the Road Fund will be introduced as a new financing instrument. And this will only increase road repair funding... Next year it will be more than UAH 42 billion," Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman assured recently, and therefore the number of renovated roads should grow. However, to ensure that all roads are put in order, officials need to allocate at least UAH 50 billion within five years. Plans for western Ukraine In addition to road repair and patching pits, in the coming years, Ukraine will see the start of several new large-scale road projects. Among those will be the construction of the Northern bypass around Lviv, which should connect Ukraine’s important road arteries - Kyiv-Chop, Lviv-Krakivets, and Lviv-Lutsk routes. The new bypass will be 24 km long and have four lanes - two in each direction. Construction of three modern overpasses made of reinforced concrete is also planned. Besides, at the intersection of the new bypass with the Kyiv-Chop and Lviv-Lutsk routes near the village of Malye Pidlisky, the government plans to construct a two-level junction. At the moment, the project is only on paper. In the summer, Ukravtodor, Ukraine’s road maintenance agency, announced that it was ready to call a tender for the development of the relevant project documentation. The cost of construction and the source of funding for this project remains unclear. A similar large-scale construction is expected on the already operating Lviv-Mukacheve route. "Now the M-06 motorway from Mukacheve to Lviv passes through a complex mountainous terrain, therefore, it takes about 3.5 hours to travel through it. The new highway will reduce the travel time to just two hours," Ukravtodor believes.
    , @LondonBob
    Russia has the most expensive cost for building roads due to corruption, weather and isolation.
  70. @DFH

    They do well in the Miss Universe contests.
     
    My A-level Spanish teacher always used to say that Venezuelan and Thai(?) women were the most attractive. I don't see it myself to be honest.

    Venezuelan women have a short shelf life, but at their peak they truly rock. If one would live only 3-5 years, I would say go for it. Long term it is a bit more problematic. I am not sure about the Thai ones, a bit underdeveloped in most departments, but they might last longer. Your A-level teacher has never been to eastern Europe, a true nirvana if one can put up with the mental yearning bullsh.t that undermines everything. Plus the nose selection is a bit too varied, one has to get lucky, or try just the right angle for viewing. But the figures are worth it.

  71. @Mr. Hack

    Certainly the completion of Power of Siberia and North Stream II this year will increase Ukraine’s incentives to restore full economic ties, like Georgia has.
     
    So what, in your opinion, would Ukraine have to give up in order to restore full economic ties? Another total about face in Ukraine's political orientation seems fraught with more uncertainty and bumps in the road? It's clear that inclusion in a Russian dominated CIS is not in the cards. An acquiescence to Russia's clumsy absorption of Crimea by Ukraine seems incomprehensible. Russia could have reabsorbed Crimea in a much more sanitized version, instead it chose to do so in a manner much more reminiscent to the Sudetenland one - resulting as the cornerstone for all of the sanctions piled up against it around the world.

    …what would Ukraine have to give up in order to restore full economic ties with Russia?

    I think restraining the emotional speeches would be a good start. Then maybe try to actually rationally address how to have open trade with both EU and Russia – given that EU and Russia don’t have a free trade agreement. It is rather elementary – you can’t have open borders on both sides with no negotiation as they tried in 2014 (mostly EU’s fault, I think some Polish-Swedish duo was behind it, they got fired afterwards).

    The ugly reality is that Ukraine needs Russia a lot more than vice-versa. In those situations, yelling at the stronger party tends to backfire.

    I am not sure how else could Crimea be reabsorbed. It required a crisis, a distracted Kiev, and moving fast. Other than February-March 2014 right after Maidan I don’t see how there would be another chance. Yes it was ‘Sudetenland’-like, it always is, so was Kosovo.

  72. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... there is nothing there, we don’t even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.
     
    Was amazed, but it looks like you're right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.

    https://i.redd.it/5wyzzv7kbfb01.jpg

    The Low Countries look like that Civilization game where you can cover all your tiles in roads by the end game.

    Polish progress is amazing. I recall reading they had no or almost no freeways as late as the late 2000s.

    Not that Russia has anything to write home about, though the picture as of 2018 at least looks less disastrous.

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2018-european-part.png

    Plans for 2024:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2024.png

    Was amazed, but it looks like you’re right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.

    IIRC the Polish one connects to Lviv.

    Also, there is a nice American-style 4 lane highway from Kiev to Zhytomir, that is not on the map. I’ve driven on it.

  73. @Mr. Hack
    What exactly do you find inappropriate about the analogy? It seems like a classic play taken directly from the H-man's playbook. Don't blame Hillary for Putler's blunt 'diplomacy' missteps.

    What exactly do you find inappropriate about the analogy? It seems like a classic play taken directly from the H-man’s playbook. Don’t blame Hillary for Putler’s blunt ‘diplomacy’ missteps.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France. Even after absorbing the Czech parts of Bohemia-Moravia, Hitler could probably still have Danzig, and if he were lucky, a land corridor to East Prussia (also important because Germany could potentially hold a lot of influence over Poland due to the importance of Gdynia for the Polish economy).

    So a more similar scenario might be Putler receives the Crimea, then the Donbass, in a diplomatic deal (no sanctions). Then he annexes Byelorussia. By now there is a lot of rearmament and sabre-rattling over the Baltics by both sides, an incident occurs and Russia and the “Western” Powers are officially at war.

    Of course, not everything is about Hitler.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     
    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance. Even China hasn't gone along with this move.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.
  74. AP says:
    @Beckow
    Russia really need to get going on the freeways and roads. The difference between Moscow-St Petersburg and the rest of the country is among the most dramatic anywhere. One reason is the lack of proper infrastructure - the way to develop countryside is to connect it, to make it more accessible.

    When you cannot move the product efficiently, business activity freezes. My point about Ukraine is that it is not easily accessible to EU companies who could manufacture there. Signing papers with EU doesn't do much, when people look at specifics they evaluate the cost of logistics, they look at how supply chains could be integrated.

    One attractive feature of building better roads is the opportunity for enrichment. Come on oligarchs, get going, this beats siphoning off gas or arms procurement fraud, building freeways is literally like mining for gold (for the ones who are given the contracts). And at the end there are nicer roads. Don't these guys ever study how Americans did it? Road construction contracts are a win-win. They also employ people.

    One attractive feature of building better roads is the opportunity for enrichment. Come on oligarchs, get going, this beats siphoning off gas or arms procurement fraud, building freeways is literally like mining for gold (for the ones who are given the contracts). And at the end there are nicer roads.

    They are working on it:

    https://economics.unian.info/2247619-road-works-booming-ukraine-plans-to-change-its-road-map-within-3-years.html

    [MORE]

    Next year, the government plans to allocate at least twice as much. The draft state budget-2018 envisages more than UAH 40 billion. “Starting from January 1, 2018, the Road Fund will be introduced as a new financing instrument. And this will only increase road repair funding… Next year it will be more than UAH 42 billion,” Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman assured recently, and therefore the number of renovated roads should grow. However, to ensure that all roads are put in order, officials need to allocate at least UAH 50 billion within five years. Plans for western Ukraine In addition to road repair and patching pits, in the coming years, Ukraine will see the start of several new large-scale road projects. Among those will be the construction of the Northern bypass around Lviv, which should connect Ukraine’s important road arteries – Kyiv-Chop, Lviv-Krakivets, and Lviv-Lutsk routes. The new bypass will be 24 km long and have four lanes – two in each direction. Construction of three modern overpasses made of reinforced concrete is also planned. Besides, at the intersection of the new bypass with the Kyiv-Chop and Lviv-Lutsk routes near the village of Malye Pidlisky, the government plans to construct a two-level junction. At the moment, the project is only on paper. In the summer, Ukravtodor, Ukraine’s road maintenance agency, announced that it was ready to call a tender for the development of the relevant project documentation. The cost of construction and the source of funding for this project remains unclear. A similar large-scale construction is expected on the already operating Lviv-Mukacheve route. “Now the M-06 motorway from Mukacheve to Lviv passes through a complex mountainous terrain, therefore, it takes about 3.5 hours to travel through it. The new highway will reduce the travel time to just two hours,” Ukravtodor believes.

  75. AP says:
    @Beckow
    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn't a spring make.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine. I am not sure what you mean by a 'new road' from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians - there is nothing there, we don't even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains. How do you move cargo? Are people taking it as luggage on those buses? Are you serious? Have seen the backups on the Ukrainian-EU borders?

    The infrastructure isn't there an won't be for decades - Ukraine has no money and EU has not offered to pay for it. The outsourcing IT is a niche business - you will not build an economy based on call centers, it is a very fluid and competitive business. Try again.

    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn’t a spring make.

    While Lviv is doing the best it is not just Lviv, but all of Western Ukraine, and central Ukraine west of the Dnipro are doing a lot better. Kiev is all right also.

    Essentially all the parts of Ukraine that participated in Maidan are benefiting as a result of Maidan.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine.

    There is one in Poland (see AK’s response). They are building one in Slovakia, according to the article I posted.

    I am not sure what you mean by a ‘new road’ from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians – there is nothing there

    Nonsense, there a new rail tunnel in the Carpathians, opened in May 2018:

    https://www.ebrd.com/news/2018/opening-of-beskyd-tunnel-moves-ukraine-closer-to-europe.html

    With the opening of the new Beskyd tunnel in the Carpathian Mountains today, Ukraine has made a major step in closer integration with pan-European transport networks.

    The new tunnel crosses the mountains between the towns of Beskid and Skotarske and connects the Ukrainian rail network through a double-track link with the pan-European transport network Corridor V, which will stretch from Venice/Trieste in northern Italy via Slovenia and Hungary to Lviv in western Ukraine. The tunnel will take on 60 per cent of rail traffic between Ukraine and the EU.

    The construction was financed by the EBRD with a US$ 40 million loan, while the European Investment Bank (EIB) extended a €55 million loan. The project was also supported by a grant provided by the European Union (EU) and technical assistance provided by the EU and Austria.

    It replaces a 130-year-old railway tunnel built under the Austro-Hungarian empire and will almost quadruple the current capacity from 12 trains per day to 46. The tunnel will significantly increase facilities for the export of Ukrainian products, while reducing journey times between Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and a major business hub, and Chop, a town near the borders of Hungary and the Slovak Republic.

    Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko opened the tunnel today. The EBRD was represented by Sevki Acuner, Country Director, Ukraine, who said: “The new tunnel is a positive example of the contemporary relationship between Ukraine and Europe. It will unblock the worst bottleneck in the east-west transport corridor. More importantly, it symbolises Ukraine’s aspiration to be integrated into the EU economy and to become part of the 21st century European family. This aspiration is now supported by proper action.”

    Further key features of the new seismically stable tunnel:

    It was constructed using 130,000 tonnes of concrete and 8,000 tonnes of steel
    It is 1,765 metres long, 10.5 metres high and 8.5 metres wide
    It is the first public sector project in Ukraine under the construction standards of the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC – Fédération Internationale Des Ingénieurs-Conseils).

    [Other article I linked to claimed 100 trains daily – AP]

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains.

    I posted about highway construction. It’s happening.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    The Kiev regime should consider you for either minister of tourism or public relations.
  76. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... there is nothing there, we don’t even have a freeway completed to eastern Slovakia yet. You are dreaming.
     
    Was amazed, but it looks like you're right. I suppose the Ukraine can still use the Poland route.

    https://i.redd.it/5wyzzv7kbfb01.jpg

    The Low Countries look like that Civilization game where you can cover all your tiles in roads by the end game.

    Polish progress is amazing. I recall reading they had no or almost no freeways as late as the late 2000s.

    Not that Russia has anything to write home about, though the picture as of 2018 at least looks less disastrous.

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2018-european-part.png

    Plans for 2024:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/russian-expressways-by-2024.png

    What do the lines represent? Controlled-access highways with four lanes or better only?

    Looking at the map casually one gets the idea that there are almost no roads on the Scandinavian peninsula aside from the Stockholm-Malmo-Gothenburg-Oslo route.

    I’ve driven the E4 all the way to the Arctic Circle.

    North of Gavle, it’s true that the highway is no longer a controlled-access highway. Given the low population density of Sweden north of Uppland, such a high capacity road makes no sense. Norrland covers 60% of Sweden’s landmass but has only 12% of the country’s population. Or put in other terms it’s twice the size of England but has one-fiftieth of the population.

    Wikipedia helpfully has a photo of the E4 in the sub-Arctic:

    The road is well maintained and carries the heaviest trucks allowed in Europe year-round.

    Lower population densities necessitate lower capacity roads which are still perfectly adequate. Maps can be misleading in this regard.

    • Agree: AP, Thulean Friend
  77. @Hyperborean

    What exactly do you find inappropriate about the analogy? It seems like a classic play taken directly from the H-man’s playbook. Don’t blame Hillary for Putler’s blunt ‘diplomacy’ missteps.
     
    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France. Even after absorbing the Czech parts of Bohemia-Moravia, Hitler could probably still have Danzig, and if he were lucky, a land corridor to East Prussia (also important because Germany could potentially hold a lot of influence over Poland due to the importance of Gdynia for the Polish economy).

    So a more similar scenario might be Putler receives the Crimea, then the Donbass, in a diplomatic deal (no sanctions). Then he annexes Byelorussia. By now there is a lot of rearmament and sabre-rattling over the Baltics by both sides, an incident occurs and Russia and the "Western" Powers are officially at war.

    Of course, not everything is about Hitler.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.

    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance. Even China hasn’t gone along with this move.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    I believe the childish game of not "accepting" territorial revisions is a postwar innovation. I can recall seeing embarrassing Cold War era maps of the USSR which included the ridiculous text that the US government did not "recognize" the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union.

    Here's a map of Austria-Hungary from 1911:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/austria_hungary_1911.jpg

    Note that Bosnia-Herzogovina, annexed in 1908, is shown as part of Austria-Hungary.

    Here's one of all of Europe from the same year, with a helpful size comparison to Illinois for some reason:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/europe_1911.jpg

    Bosnia-Herzegovina also shown as unambiguously Austro-Hungarian. Schleswig-Holstein and Alsace-Lorraine shown as part of Germany. No funny business about not accepting reality.

    I've decided I'm not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    Like it or not, but reality matters more than symbolic gestures. The reality is that Crimeans are now a part of the Russian Reich whether the rest of the world likes it or not.
    , @Hyperborean
    Did you read the essay I linked regarding the development of Danish nationalism? You should find the conclusion heartening.
    , @Mikhail

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.
     
    Especially true regarding Porky.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     

    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance.
     
    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 - much unlike Crimea's relationship with Russia.

    Russia is nothing closely resembling Nazi Germany. Better comparisons with Crimea can be made relative to northern Cyprus and Kosovo. BTW, with the exception of Turkey, no other country recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

    Crimea's changed territorial status getting greater scorn highlights the gross hypocrisy out there.

    Related:

    https://www.academia.edu/37358188/Michael_Averko_Consistency_and_Reality_Lacking_on_Crimea
  78. @Mr. Hack

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     
    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance. Even China hasn't gone along with this move.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.

    I believe the childish game of not “accepting” territorial revisions is a postwar innovation. I can recall seeing embarrassing Cold War era maps of the USSR which included the ridiculous text that the US government did not “recognize” the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union.

    Here’s a map of Austria-Hungary from 1911:

    Note that Bosnia-Herzogovina, annexed in 1908, is shown as part of Austria-Hungary.

    Here’s one of all of Europe from the same year, with a helpful size comparison to Illinois for some reason:

    Bosnia-Herzegovina also shown as unambiguously Austro-Hungarian. Schleswig-Holstein and Alsace-Lorraine shown as part of Germany. No funny business about not accepting reality.

    I’ve decided I’m not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    What's interesting about that 1911 map of Austria-Hungary is that the present-day borders in that part of the world match very closely with the ethnic/linguistic lines back in 1911. The main exceptions to this rule are the Lemkivshchyna, the Sudetenland (in this case, due to the post-WWII expulsion of its ethnic German population), and South Tyrol.
    , @songbird
    Right now, I'm thinking that both Canada and the US would have been better off, if Benedict Arnold had won in Quebec.

    For instance, they would have had less casualties in WW1, and is there any chance that either Trudeau would have been elected? Meanwhile, Canadian whites would have offset our problems with blacks nearly completely. Perhaps our imperial ambitions would have turned towards Greenland and Iceland, instead of Puerto Rico.

    History went wrong, when the invasion failed.
    , @Mr. Hack

    I’ve decided I’m not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.
     
    Thorfy, you may markup the books within your own private library anyway you like. But trying to compare your own importance with those of countries within the international community is a little bit over the top? Do you own any astronomical maps within your library? Here's a change that you might want to consider too:

    https://i.pinimg.com/236x/a6/cd/9e/a6cd9e814932630b8b97a955dabb21c5--good-night-moon-sun-moon-stars.jpg

    :-)

  79. @Mr. Hack

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     
    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance. Even China hasn't gone along with this move.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.

    Like it or not, but reality matters more than symbolic gestures. The reality is that Crimeans are now a part of the Russian Reich whether the rest of the world likes it or not.

  80. @Thorfinnsson
    I believe the childish game of not "accepting" territorial revisions is a postwar innovation. I can recall seeing embarrassing Cold War era maps of the USSR which included the ridiculous text that the US government did not "recognize" the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union.

    Here's a map of Austria-Hungary from 1911:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/austria_hungary_1911.jpg

    Note that Bosnia-Herzogovina, annexed in 1908, is shown as part of Austria-Hungary.

    Here's one of all of Europe from the same year, with a helpful size comparison to Illinois for some reason:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/europe_1911.jpg

    Bosnia-Herzegovina also shown as unambiguously Austro-Hungarian. Schleswig-Holstein and Alsace-Lorraine shown as part of Germany. No funny business about not accepting reality.

    I've decided I'm not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.

    What’s interesting about that 1911 map of Austria-Hungary is that the present-day borders in that part of the world match very closely with the ethnic/linguistic lines back in 1911. The main exceptions to this rule are the Lemkivshchyna, the Sudetenland (in this case, due to the post-WWII expulsion of its ethnic German population), and South Tyrol.

  81. @Thorfinnsson
    I believe the childish game of not "accepting" territorial revisions is a postwar innovation. I can recall seeing embarrassing Cold War era maps of the USSR which included the ridiculous text that the US government did not "recognize" the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union.

    Here's a map of Austria-Hungary from 1911:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/austria_hungary_1911.jpg

    Note that Bosnia-Herzogovina, annexed in 1908, is shown as part of Austria-Hungary.

    Here's one of all of Europe from the same year, with a helpful size comparison to Illinois for some reason:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/europe_1911.jpg

    Bosnia-Herzegovina also shown as unambiguously Austro-Hungarian. Schleswig-Holstein and Alsace-Lorraine shown as part of Germany. No funny business about not accepting reality.

    I've decided I'm not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.

    Right now, I’m thinking that both Canada and the US would have been better off, if Benedict Arnold had won in Quebec.

    For instance, they would have had less casualties in WW1, and is there any chance that either Trudeau would have been elected? Meanwhile, Canadian whites would have offset our problems with blacks nearly completely. Perhaps our imperial ambitions would have turned towards Greenland and Iceland, instead of Puerto Rico.

    History went wrong, when the invasion failed.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    Meanwhile, Canadian whites would have offset our problems with blacks nearly completely.
     
    How come?
  82. @Mr. Hack

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     
    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance. Even China hasn't gone along with this move.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.

    Did you read the essay I linked regarding the development of Danish nationalism? You should find the conclusion heartening.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    I rechecked your comments to me & can't seem to find the link that you allude to? If it's at this thread, just indicate what comment it's within. Thanks.
  83. @songbird
    Right now, I'm thinking that both Canada and the US would have been better off, if Benedict Arnold had won in Quebec.

    For instance, they would have had less casualties in WW1, and is there any chance that either Trudeau would have been elected? Meanwhile, Canadian whites would have offset our problems with blacks nearly completely. Perhaps our imperial ambitions would have turned towards Greenland and Iceland, instead of Puerto Rico.

    History went wrong, when the invasion failed.

    Meanwhile, Canadian whites would have offset our problems with blacks nearly completely.

    How come?

    • Replies: @songbird
    I'm being slightly facetious, but I do think it is an interesting scenario that may have possibly created a different racial dynamic, on both sides.

    More black movement into Canadian cities earlier may have discouraged experimenting with multiculturalism. They may have pushed more for a hard Southern border, Mexico being more alien to them, and not having the historical baggage of the SW.

    It's harder to say what would have been the effect in regard to blacks in America. I'm glossing over the Civil War. But maybe they would have been a less attractive political block, being balanced by both the additional voters on the left and right.

    Maybe Canada's energy reserves would made war in the Middle East even more absurd. It's really a kind of crazy scenario. IMO, useless now - you'd need a time machine. It is easy to argue the opposite even. But, its just hard to imagine things turning out worse than they did.
  84. Window for poor countries to industrialise ‘closing fast’ – FT

    Very interesting article, based on solid original research by McKinsey. It ties into the discussion on manufacturing prospects for poorer countries, Ukraine and convergence in general. The TL;DR version is:

    1. Services trade is increasing much faster than goods trade(60% faster over the last decade, to be exact), and developed countries have a structural advantage in services trade. Moreover, this advantage has increased over the last decade. The few poor countries that do well in services tend to do so in more easily automated services (call centers), so their future prospects are shakier than for high-value added services, which they don’t well in.

    2. Labour arbitrage is falling in importance for labour intensive manufacturing. It is now at levels not seen since the 1990s. This is bad news for poor countries given that manufacturing has been the traditional path to wealth unless A) you’re tiny and oil rich or B) you’re a tax-haven or C) you’re a city-state. But those are outliers.

    3. Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn’t be poor.

    4. Trade regionalism is growing, led by Asia and Europe. If you’re outside of these tightly regional supply chains, then your scope to sell to the rich in order to get rich yourself is becoming harder.

    Some quibbles/observations: While labour arbitrage is falling, the 1990s was hardly a bad time to do convergence either. The key question is if this will continue to fall. If so, then very bad news for poorer countries. My suspicion is that it indeed will continue to fall, given the rise in automation that seems hard, if not impossible, to stop.

    Trade regionalism may not be a major impediment for Ukraine, but it will be for poorer countries outside of these clusters of trade. But one can ask why trade regionalism is growing in the first place. I think the catch-all “protectionism” excuse is unconvincing.

    Part of the answer, surely, and which is not explored in the article, is that the remaining poor countries outside of Asia are not very attractive. Business went to China because of the high quality of the workers and great infrastructure, plus the legal environment, despite much whining, was still good enough to ensure stability. You have none of that in Africa. China was also integrated into the world economy when regionalism was just as high, if not higher, as it is now. The point is that these trends are not static, nor inevitable. Businesses adapt and move to new places if there is strong potential for profit. This is evidently not the case in many of the poorer countries left outside of these value chains.

    The article mentions Vietnam. Somehow it does well despite all these headwinds. This is a perfect example when mainstream analysis is crippled by a lack of HBD understanding. Of course, HBD has its limits too, as I’ve frequently pointed out. Ukraine should not be as poor and growing as slowly if you only looked at its IQ and nothing else.

    Davos elites and neoliberal economists are obsessed with ‘good demographics’, which is solely and idiotically defined in terms of quantum of growth and youth. The research coming out, however, shows that quality of demographics is a much more important factor. India is learning this lesson painfully.

    In other words, convergence may indeed stall or even reverse. But this may simply mean that most of the world’s IQ potential is nearing its natural limits given favorable economic and political systems mostly in place, with obvious exceptions (North Korea, Ukraine and a few others). Countries which still have the right ingredients for rapid growth (high IQ, decently good legal systems and stable political foundations) will continue to do well, such as Vietnam. So it is important to read the tea leaves correctly. Nevertheless, the prospective dual impact of stalling convergence and explosive population growth in much of Africa means that we’re definitely going to live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @AP

    Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn’t be poor.
     
    So Ukraine's focus on IT development has the potential to be more than merely 2% to 3% of its economy as Beckow pessimistically predicted.
    , @Nzn
    What is the future of countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Burma, Philippines, and Cambodia?
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    I agree that this is probably just the consequences of a Biorealistic World coming to fruition, cutting off possibilities for further convergence.

    (Convergence having been largely already attained if viewed in IQ potential terms).

    That said, one thing I have always wondered about, though I don't think I have written specifically about, is whether structural changes in the economy might not presage a further widening of the gap between rich and poor countries (which have hitherto been obscured by the rise of China, and the abandonment of anti-growth policies in the developing world in general).

    In the future:

    1. There will be steadily more automation, which will put an even greater premium on high IQ workers.

    2. Increasing globalization (if it holds) will allow both capital and high IQ labor to migrate to countries with optimal legal environments with ever greater ease - environments that are in turn produced by informed, high IQ voters.

    3. Any genetic augmentation of IQ will likely first take place in these elite countries and/or jurisdictions.

    This obviously bodes poorly for Africa, etc.

    But it also bodes poorly for Ukraine, as its smart fractions have been substantially stripped, and its legal environment, obviously, leaves much to be desired. This is actually true for virtually all East and South European countries, though Ukraine and Moldova to the greatest extent.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Much of this trend reflects a successful effort by the developed countries to permanently lock-in their advantages in the global value chain by increasing the role of and legally privileging "intellectual property". A lot of the trade in "services" reflects this as well. Royalties from patent-licensing are now a large part of American and Japanese exports.

    If you read the terms under which China was admitted to the WTO, this was a very strong trend even then. The Chinese believed they could meet the challenge anyway and were right (Godfree Roberts wrote an interesting piece on this), though there are still some challenges for them as shown when the US Government toyed with destroying ZTE.

    There is no law of nature requiring countries to develop by pursuing export-led industrialization. This development strategy is an artifact of the "American-led rules-based international order" we hear so much about.

    I also wonder how much of the increase in services as a share of economic output reflects the global collapse of families.

  85. AP says:
    @Polish Perspective
    Window for poor countries to industrialise ‘closing fast’ - FT


    Very interesting article, based on solid original research by McKinsey. It ties into the discussion on manufacturing prospects for poorer countries, Ukraine and convergence in general. The TL;DR version is:

    1. Services trade is increasing much faster than goods trade(60% faster over the last decade, to be exact), and developed countries have a structural advantage in services trade. Moreover, this advantage has increased over the last decade. The few poor countries that do well in services tend to do so in more easily automated services (call centers), so their future prospects are shakier than for high-value added services, which they don't well in.

    2. Labour arbitrage is falling in importance for labour intensive manufacturing. It is now at levels not seen since the 1990s. This is bad news for poor countries given that manufacturing has been the traditional path to wealth unless A) you're tiny and oil rich or B) you're a tax-haven or C) you're a city-state. But those are outliers.

    3. Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn't be poor.

    4. Trade regionalism is growing, led by Asia and Europe. If you're outside of these tightly regional supply chains, then your scope to sell to the rich in order to get rich yourself is becoming harder.

    Some quibbles/observations: While labour arbitrage is falling, the 1990s was hardly a bad time to do convergence either. The key question is if this will continue to fall. If so, then very bad news for poorer countries. My suspicion is that it indeed will continue to fall, given the rise in automation that seems hard, if not impossible, to stop.

    Trade regionalism may not be a major impediment for Ukraine, but it will be for poorer countries outside of these clusters of trade. But one can ask why trade regionalism is growing in the first place. I think the catch-all "protectionism" excuse is unconvincing.

    Part of the answer, surely, and which is not explored in the article, is that the remaining poor countries outside of Asia are not very attractive. Business went to China because of the high quality of the workers and great infrastructure, plus the legal environment, despite much whining, was still good enough to ensure stability. You have none of that in Africa. China was also integrated into the world economy when regionalism was just as high, if not higher, as it is now. The point is that these trends are not static, nor inevitable. Businesses adapt and move to new places if there is strong potential for profit. This is evidently not the case in many of the poorer countries left outside of these value chains.

    The article mentions Vietnam. Somehow it does well despite all these headwinds. This is a perfect example when mainstream analysis is crippled by a lack of HBD understanding. Of course, HBD has its limits too, as I've frequently pointed out. Ukraine should not be as poor and growing as slowly if you only looked at its IQ and nothing else.

    Davos elites and neoliberal economists are obsessed with 'good demographics', which is solely and idiotically defined in terms of quantum of growth and youth. The research coming out, however, shows that quality of demographics is a much more important factor. India is learning this lesson painfully.

    In other words, convergence may indeed stall or even reverse. But this may simply mean that most of the world's IQ potential is nearing its natural limits given favorable economic and political systems mostly in place, with obvious exceptions (North Korea, Ukraine and a few others). Countries which still have the right ingredients for rapid growth (high IQ, decently good legal systems and stable political foundations) will continue to do well, such as Vietnam. So it is important to read the tea leaves correctly. Nevertheless, the prospective dual impact of stalling convergence and explosive population growth in much of Africa means that we're definitely going to live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

    Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn’t be poor.

    So Ukraine’s focus on IT development has the potential to be more than merely 2% to 3% of its economy as Beckow pessimistically predicted.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    As % of GDP, not percentage of revenue.
    , @Beckow
    For god's sake don't always compare apples and oranges. Business revenue and how it is allocated is only a subset of GNP. And the idea that all of R&D/IT (let's say 13%) would be outsourced by companies to Ukraine is preposterous.

    You similarly mixed in railroad tunnels and trains with business logistics - they are not the same. If a business wants to move a product it needs freeways or good roads, easy to cross borders and not the nightmare backups currently on the Ukraine borders. In Slovakia a freeway ends in Kosice - it is hours on bad country roads from there to reach Ukraine. And in Ukraine it connects to even a worse 2-way highway. This is a logistics nightmare and no business wants to deal with it. There is no current plan to extend the freeway - it would be very expensive, the area is underdeveloped, and frankly it has no benefit for Slovakia. So who is going to build that freeway connecting to Ukraine? And when? 25-30 years from now?

    Yes, people can carry baggage on slow trains or buses, great. Or they can answer phones in Lviv. You are not going to build an economy integrated with EU supply chains with that. This is a multi-generational reorientation of the Ukraine economy towards west - it will take a huge amount of investment and there has to be a return on that investment. Right now it is spotty.

    What you have are Ukrainians migrating to work, and most get paid less and do the work that locals are not willing to do - some do very low-level stuff. You also have the energy supply chains reorienting from Ukraine towards Germany, Baltic and Turkey-Balkans. Companies are paying attention to that. Logistics and energy are behind most business decisions.

    My conclusion is that Ukraine is slipping further back and that the badly thought out 2014 treaty with EU has not worked. Yanukovitch was told by his experts that it will cost Ukraine more than it will gain (I think $100-200 billion more in costs). The losses have been bigger than gains. A stupid business or economic decision is still stupid even if it makes you emotionally happy ("we are going to Europe!!! mammamia..."). And don't again tell us about the happy cafes in Lviv, that's a detail, economies need more.

  86. @Thorfinnsson
    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    7% GDP growth is not only obtainable but ought to be a priority objective of the state.

    Belarus is twice as wealthy and in any case has some kind of unique quasi-socialist model. Unfortunately English-language information on Belarus is poor. Presumably you Russian speakers know more.

    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    The claim of human capital is highly questionable. Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.

    • Replies: @AP

    Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.
     
    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine's population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2018

    and programming Olympiad:

    https://stats.ioinformatics.org/delegations/2018?sort=total_desc

    But beats Ukraine in physics:

    https://ipho-unofficial.org/timeline/2018/country

    Literacy lower in Vietnam than in Ukraine:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Universities ranked higher in Ukraine:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/29/ukraine.html

    than Vietnam:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/142/vietnam.html

    Etc. etc.
  87. @AP

    You are a master of cherry-picking. Maybe Lviv can become a city-state and show all doubters how prosperous it is. One swallow doesn’t a spring make.
     
    While Lviv is doing the best it is not just Lviv, but all of Western Ukraine, and central Ukraine west of the Dnipro are doing a lot better. Kiev is all right also.

    Essentially all the parts of Ukraine that participated in Maidan are benefiting as a result of Maidan.

    There is no freeway to Ukraine.
     
    There is one in Poland (see AK's response). They are building one in Slovakia, according to the article I posted.

    I am not sure what you mean by a ‘new road’ from Slovakia and a tunnel across the Carpathians – there is nothing there
     
    Nonsense, there a new rail tunnel in the Carpathians, opened in May 2018:

    https://www.ebrd.com/news/2018/opening-of-beskyd-tunnel-moves-ukraine-closer-to-europe.html

    With the opening of the new Beskyd tunnel in the Carpathian Mountains today, Ukraine has made a major step in closer integration with pan-European transport networks.

    The new tunnel crosses the mountains between the towns of Beskid and Skotarske and connects the Ukrainian rail network through a double-track link with the pan-European transport network Corridor V, which will stretch from Venice/Trieste in northern Italy via Slovenia and Hungary to Lviv in western Ukraine. The tunnel will take on 60 per cent of rail traffic between Ukraine and the EU.

    The construction was financed by the EBRD with a US$ 40 million loan, while the European Investment Bank (EIB) extended a €55 million loan. The project was also supported by a grant provided by the European Union (EU) and technical assistance provided by the EU and Austria.

    It replaces a 130-year-old railway tunnel built under the Austro-Hungarian empire and will almost quadruple the current capacity from 12 trains per day to 46. The tunnel will significantly increase facilities for the export of Ukrainian products, while reducing journey times between Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and a major business hub, and Chop, a town near the borders of Hungary and the Slovak Republic.

    Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko opened the tunnel today. The EBRD was represented by Sevki Acuner, Country Director, Ukraine, who said: “The new tunnel is a positive example of the contemporary relationship between Ukraine and Europe. It will unblock the worst bottleneck in the east-west transport corridor. More importantly, it symbolises Ukraine’s aspiration to be integrated into the EU economy and to become part of the 21st century European family. This aspiration is now supported by proper action.”

    Further key features of the new seismically stable tunnel:

    It was constructed using 130,000 tonnes of concrete and 8,000 tonnes of steel
    It is 1,765 metres long, 10.5 metres high and 8.5 metres wide
    It is the first public sector project in Ukraine under the construction standards of the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC - Fédération Internationale Des Ingénieurs-Conseils).

    [Other article I linked to claimed 100 trains daily - AP]

    But my bigger point is that business needs solid infrastructure and not buses and old slow trains.
     
    I posted about highway construction. It's happening.

    The Kiev regime should consider you for either minister of tourism or public relations.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I unironically think AP would be an excellent PR spokesman for the Ukraine. They should certainly try to poach him.

    Main concern would be not to let his anti-Donbass/anti-East sentiments bubble out as that would be politically damaging.
  88. @Thorfinnsson
    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    7% GDP growth is not only obtainable but ought to be a priority objective of the state.

    Belarus is twice as wealthy and in any case has some kind of unique quasi-socialist model. Unfortunately English-language information on Belarus is poor. Presumably you Russian speakers know more.

    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.

    I am skeptical of this. After all, Vietnam even outperforms Russia on PISA and Ukraine would probably score lower than Russia on PISA. Plus, this is not to mention the fact that Vietnam might not have reached its genetic ceiling for average IQ yet (though that might also be true for Ukraine).

    What might hurt Vietnam is similar to what appears to hurt countries such as Japan and South Korea (and eventually, China as well). Specifically, I am talking about the lack of creativity/curiosity and/or whatever which causes East Asian countries to have a lower PPP GDP per capita than would be expected based on their average IQs. I don’t see why exactly Vietnam would be an exception in regards to this. Then again, though, Singapore is indeed an exception in regards to this, so who the heck knows?

  89. @Mr. Hack

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     
    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance. Even China hasn't gone along with this move.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.

    Especially true regarding Porky.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.

    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance.

    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 – much unlike Crimea’s relationship with Russia.

    Russia is nothing closely resembling Nazi Germany. Better comparisons with Crimea can be made relative to northern Cyprus and Kosovo. BTW, with the exception of Turkey, no other country recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

    Crimea’s changed territorial status getting greater scorn highlights the gross hypocrisy out there.

    Related:

    https://www.academia.edu/37358188/Michael_Averko_Consistency_and_Reality_Lacking_on_Crimea

    • Replies: @AP

    Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938
     
    Someone hasn't heard of the Holy Roman Empire. Austria and Germany were part of the HRE for about 900 years. Crimea was part of Russia for about 170 years (about 210 if you include its time in the Ukrainian SSR)
    , @Hyperborean

    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 – much unlike Crimea’s relationship with Russia.
     
    The Austrian Lands were part of the Holy Roman Empire and the German Confederation and was only excluded after the adoption of the Lesser German Solution during the foundation of the Second Reich.

    When the Hapsburg Empire collapsed the Republic of German-Austria quickly set about reuniting with Germany until the Treaty of Versailles, which forbade their union, was announced.

    , @Thorfinnsson
    You're confusing nation and state.

    Austria is a German nation which lies outside of the German state.

    Though as AP pointed out there is shared political history beyond its seven years in Greater Germany.

    In addition to the Holy Roman Empire there was the Carolingian Empire, East Francia, the Kingdom of the Germans, and the German Confederation.

    When King Edward VII attempted to persuade the last Hapsburg Kaiser Franz Josef to abandon his alliance with the German Empire in favor of an understanding with the Entente, Franz Josef's simple reply was, "I am a German prince."
  90. AP says:
    @melanf

    The Ukraine is about as poor as Vietnam but has better human capital.
     
    The claim of human capital is highly questionable. Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.

    Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.

    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine’s population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2018

    and programming Olympiad:

    https://stats.ioinformatics.org/delegations/2018?sort=total_desc

    But beats Ukraine in physics:

    https://ipho-unofficial.org/timeline/2018/country

    Literacy lower in Vietnam than in Ukraine:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Universities ranked higher in Ukraine:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/29/ukraine.html

    than Vietnam:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/142/vietnam.html

    Etc. etc.

    • Replies: @songbird
    I don't doubt that the Ukraine has higher literacy in the elderly, but 100% seems kind of like a phony statistic.

    Short of embryo selection, perhaps even with it, there's going to be some people in every society who can't read at useful level. I feel like Vietnam is probably counting theirs and the Ukraine isn't. Common type of problem in country comparisons.
    , @melanf

    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine’s population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:
     
    Ha, Russia in this area is superior to China (which has a population of almost 10 times more), and far superior to Japan (which has the same population). If we calculate the per capita figures, Russia is likely to be ahead of the United States. As you can see this is not an indicator.

    Etc. etc.
     
    This is all the result of Vietnam's initially much lower "base". All the experts on the Far East known to me unanimously say that Vietnam (with a time delay) is developing along the same trajectory as Taiwan, South Korea, China. Therefore, I think that Vietnam (at least in the conditions of today's life) has a huge superiority in terms of human capital over Ukraine. For Russia (due to obvious factors), Ukrainian migrants are probably preferable to Vietnamese migrants. But if I were the head of the Australian immigration service, I'd prefer the Vietnamese.
    , @melanf

    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine’s population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:
     
    If we continue to measure human capital in this way, how should we measure the human capital of white Americans?

    http://chert-poberi.ru/wp-content/uploads/proga/111/images3/0_8711fc_d858f7ff_orig_589.jpg

    https://pwo.su/uploads/posts/2018-07/1531649196_1_shot_full.jpeg

  91. @Mikhail

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.
     
    Especially true regarding Porky.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     

    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance.
     
    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 - much unlike Crimea's relationship with Russia.

    Russia is nothing closely resembling Nazi Germany. Better comparisons with Crimea can be made relative to northern Cyprus and Kosovo. BTW, with the exception of Turkey, no other country recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

    Crimea's changed territorial status getting greater scorn highlights the gross hypocrisy out there.

    Related:

    https://www.academia.edu/37358188/Michael_Averko_Consistency_and_Reality_Lacking_on_Crimea

    Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938

    Someone hasn’t heard of the Holy Roman Empire. Austria and Germany were part of the HRE for about 900 years. Crimea was part of Russia for about 170 years (about 210 if you include its time in the Ukrainian SSR)

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Should've read as Austria having never been part of Germany before 1938.

    So the "Holy Roman Empire" wasn't a loosely associated enterprise unlike Rus? Question rhetorically presented as such in recognition of your belittling of Rus as a basis for Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian togetherness.

    Besides the post Mongol yoke Russian Empire period, a good portion of Crimean territory was part of Rus, well before the Tatars arrived there. Crimea's re-association with Russia was to a good extent motivated by the troubling Tatar raids from Crimea against eastern Slavs and some others.
    , @LondonBob
    Austria basically means Ost Reich, it is in the name.
  92. @Hyperborean

    Meanwhile, Canadian whites would have offset our problems with blacks nearly completely.
     
    How come?

    I’m being slightly facetious, but I do think it is an interesting scenario that may have possibly created a different racial dynamic, on both sides.

    More black movement into Canadian cities earlier may have discouraged experimenting with multiculturalism. They may have pushed more for a hard Southern border, Mexico being more alien to them, and not having the historical baggage of the SW.

    It’s harder to say what would have been the effect in regard to blacks in America. I’m glossing over the Civil War. But maybe they would have been a less attractive political block, being balanced by both the additional voters on the left and right.

    Maybe Canada’s energy reserves would made war in the Middle East even more absurd. It’s really a kind of crazy scenario. IMO, useless now – you’d need a time machine. It is easy to argue the opposite even. But, its just hard to imagine things turning out worse than they did.

  93. @AP

    Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.
     
    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine's population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2018

    and programming Olympiad:

    https://stats.ioinformatics.org/delegations/2018?sort=total_desc

    But beats Ukraine in physics:

    https://ipho-unofficial.org/timeline/2018/country

    Literacy lower in Vietnam than in Ukraine:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Universities ranked higher in Ukraine:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/29/ukraine.html

    than Vietnam:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/142/vietnam.html

    Etc. etc.

    I don’t doubt that the Ukraine has higher literacy in the elderly, but 100% seems kind of like a phony statistic.

    Short of embryo selection, perhaps even with it, there’s going to be some people in every society who can’t read at useful level. I feel like Vietnam is probably counting theirs and the Ukraine isn’t. Common type of problem in country comparisons.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    This is obviously related to the fact that Russia/Ukraine/Belorussia had became modern, universally literate societies by the 1960s, when Vietnam was still a nation of Third World peasants. Today, Vietnam would be like Russia/Ukraine in the 1960s, where all the illiterates are old people.
  94. @AP

    Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938
     
    Someone hasn't heard of the Holy Roman Empire. Austria and Germany were part of the HRE for about 900 years. Crimea was part of Russia for about 170 years (about 210 if you include its time in the Ukrainian SSR)

    Should’ve read as Austria having never been part of Germany before 1938.

    So the “Holy Roman Empire” wasn’t a loosely associated enterprise unlike Rus? Question rhetorically presented as such in recognition of your belittling of Rus as a basis for Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian togetherness.

    Besides the post Mongol yoke Russian Empire period, a good portion of Crimean territory was part of Rus, well before the Tatars arrived there. Crimea’s re-association with Russia was to a good extent motivated by the troubling Tatar raids from Crimea against eastern Slavs and some others.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    The Holy Roman Empire (full title: Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation) was only finally dissolved in 1806.

    The German Confederation was created in 1815. The German Question, which was whether Austria or Prussia would dominate German affairs, then dominated inter-German politics under Prussian arms answered the question at Koeniggraetz.

    Austria was so obviously German that the victors in both World Wars found it necessary to forbid Anschluss in the Treaty of Versailles and the Austrian State Treaty. In the interwar period the independent state of Austria was formally named "German Austria".
  95. @Mikhail

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.
     
    Especially true regarding Porky.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     

    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance.
     
    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 - much unlike Crimea's relationship with Russia.

    Russia is nothing closely resembling Nazi Germany. Better comparisons with Crimea can be made relative to northern Cyprus and Kosovo. BTW, with the exception of Turkey, no other country recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

    Crimea's changed territorial status getting greater scorn highlights the gross hypocrisy out there.

    Related:

    https://www.academia.edu/37358188/Michael_Averko_Consistency_and_Reality_Lacking_on_Crimea

    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 – much unlike Crimea’s relationship with Russia.

    The Austrian Lands were part of the Holy Roman Empire and the German Confederation and was only excluded after the adoption of the Lesser German Solution during the foundation of the Second Reich.

    When the Hapsburg Empire collapsed the Republic of German-Austria quickly set about reuniting with Germany until the Treaty of Versailles, which forbade their union, was announced.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Notwithstanding, the anschluss occurred centuries after the Holy Roman Empire, when Germany and Austria were part of the same entity.

    In the instance with Crimea, there's a recent as well as more distant association with Russia.
  96. @AP

    Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.
     
    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine's population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2018

    and programming Olympiad:

    https://stats.ioinformatics.org/delegations/2018?sort=total_desc

    But beats Ukraine in physics:

    https://ipho-unofficial.org/timeline/2018/country

    Literacy lower in Vietnam than in Ukraine:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Universities ranked higher in Ukraine:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/29/ukraine.html

    than Vietnam:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/142/vietnam.html

    Etc. etc.

    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine’s population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    Ha, Russia in this area is superior to China (which has a population of almost 10 times more), and far superior to Japan (which has the same population). If we calculate the per capita figures, Russia is likely to be ahead of the United States. As you can see this is not an indicator.

    Etc. etc.

    This is all the result of Vietnam’s initially much lower “base”. All the experts on the Far East known to me unanimously say that Vietnam (with a time delay) is developing along the same trajectory as Taiwan, South Korea, China. Therefore, I think that Vietnam (at least in the conditions of today’s life) has a huge superiority in terms of human capital over Ukraine. For Russia (due to obvious factors), Ukrainian migrants are probably preferable to Vietnamese migrants. But if I were the head of the Australian immigration service, I’d prefer the Vietnamese.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    In fairness, Vietnam seems to be growing at around 7% - see a graph of its historical GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, constant dollars) vs. India, they match almost one for one.

    In contrast, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and now China have all grown at 10% during their periods of intensive industrialization.
  97. @Hyperborean

    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 – much unlike Crimea’s relationship with Russia.
     
    The Austrian Lands were part of the Holy Roman Empire and the German Confederation and was only excluded after the adoption of the Lesser German Solution during the foundation of the Second Reich.

    When the Hapsburg Empire collapsed the Republic of German-Austria quickly set about reuniting with Germany until the Treaty of Versailles, which forbade their union, was announced.

    Notwithstanding, the anschluss occurred centuries after the Holy Roman Empire, when Germany and Austria were part of the same entity.

    In the instance with Crimea, there’s a recent as well as more distant association with Russia.

  98. @AP

    Rather, we can assume that Vietnam (which is developing similar to other countries of the far East) has a much better human capital than Ukraine.
     
    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine's population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2018

    and programming Olympiad:

    https://stats.ioinformatics.org/delegations/2018?sort=total_desc

    But beats Ukraine in physics:

    https://ipho-unofficial.org/timeline/2018/country

    Literacy lower in Vietnam than in Ukraine:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Universities ranked higher in Ukraine:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/29/ukraine.html

    than Vietnam:

    https://www.mastersportal.com/ranking-country/142/vietnam.html

    Etc. etc.

    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine’s population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:

    If we continue to measure human capital in this way, how should we measure the human capital of white Americans?

  99. @songbird
    Mr. Unz should probably assign more slots to Mr. Karlin - at least one more.

    It would be an improvement on Phillip Giraldi’s endless one note rants.

  100. @songbird
    Vietnam had large-scale Chinese settlement over a long timeframe. I believe that makes it different from the rest of SE Asia. I think it is quite possible that they have European norms for intelligence.

    Vietnam also has less Indian admixture than the rest of mainland Southeast Asia, which is probably also a factor in higher Vietnamese IQ.

  101. Here is an argument that the conflict between Pakistan and India has never been as dangerous as it is now:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/the-india-pakistan-crisis-deserves-our-urgent-attention.html

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    On why the mass media has been relatively even-handed on that dispute:

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/452759-coverage-india-pakistan-crisis/

    Excerpt -

    And it all became clear! India and Pakistan are key allies of pretty much everyone apart from each other. India has lots of cash, and Pakistan has lots of access to extremely useful spy networks.

    In a situation like this, it's really hard for the media to know who they're allowed to blame, governments aren't telling them who to demonize and that makes it hard for the usual invective to spew forth.

    You won't struggle to find opinion pieces on who is to blame in Venezuela or Syria for example, but with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting. Imagine that.

    Objective reporting, a joint international call for restraint.
     
    , @Hyperborean

    Here is an argument that the conflict between Pakistan and India has never been as dangerous as it is now
     
    In a morbid kind of sense, I am kind of curious to see how two nuclear Powers would face each other in open combat.
  102. @reiner Tor
    Here is an argument that the conflict between Pakistan and India has never been as dangerous as it is now:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/the-india-pakistan-crisis-deserves-our-urgent-attention.html

    On why the mass media has been relatively even-handed on that dispute:

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/452759-coverage-india-pakistan-crisis/

    Excerpt –

    And it all became clear! India and Pakistan are key allies of pretty much everyone apart from each other. India has lots of cash, and Pakistan has lots of access to extremely useful spy networks.

    In a situation like this, it’s really hard for the media to know who they’re allowed to blame, governments aren’t telling them who to demonize and that makes it hard for the usual invective to spew forth.

    You won’t struggle to find opinion pieces on who is to blame in Venezuela or Syria for example, but with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting. Imagine that.

    Objective reporting, a joint international call for restraint.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting
     
    The issue is that it’s underreported precisely because they don’t know who to blame.
  103. @reiner Tor
    Here is an argument that the conflict between Pakistan and India has never been as dangerous as it is now:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/the-india-pakistan-crisis-deserves-our-urgent-attention.html

    Here is an argument that the conflict between Pakistan and India has never been as dangerous as it is now

    In a morbid kind of sense, I am kind of curious to see how two nuclear Powers would face each other in open combat.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I was interested in the Russo-American War (also called ww3), too.

    But even this Pakistani-Indian conflict would be an unimaginable disaster. It’d lower the psychological barriers to the usage of nuclear weapons. Or if the nukes aren’t used, it’d further increase complacency about how no one would ever use nukes (and so make it easier to initiate a conventional “limited” war against another nuclear power).

    And I haven’t even taken into account the actual Pakistani and Indian victims, tens of millions of whom could die.
  104. @Mikhail
    On why the mass media has been relatively even-handed on that dispute:

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/452759-coverage-india-pakistan-crisis/

    Excerpt -

    And it all became clear! India and Pakistan are key allies of pretty much everyone apart from each other. India has lots of cash, and Pakistan has lots of access to extremely useful spy networks.

    In a situation like this, it's really hard for the media to know who they're allowed to blame, governments aren't telling them who to demonize and that makes it hard for the usual invective to spew forth.

    You won't struggle to find opinion pieces on who is to blame in Venezuela or Syria for example, but with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting. Imagine that.

    Objective reporting, a joint international call for restraint.
     

    with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting

    The issue is that it’s underreported precisely because they don’t know who to blame.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Not being in Europe or in America's back yard is a factor. I've seen it make the lead headline on BBC World and CNN International. There's also this previously mentioned factor from the linked RT piece:

    And it all became clear! India and Pakistan are key allies of pretty much everyone apart from each other. India has lots of cash, and Pakistan has lots of access to extremely useful spy networks.

    In a situation like this, it’s really hard for the media to know who they’re allowed to blame, governments aren’t telling them who to demonize and that makes it hard for the usual invective to spew forth.

    You won’t struggle to find opinion pieces on who is to blame in Venezuela or Syria for example, but with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting. Imagine that.
     

    Not sure if Pakistan's Intel value is as influential as much as its military is considered potent with decades of US and Chinese ties. Did the Pakistani government and/or Intel actually help the US in finding OBL?
  105. @Hyperborean

    Here is an argument that the conflict between Pakistan and India has never been as dangerous as it is now
     
    In a morbid kind of sense, I am kind of curious to see how two nuclear Powers would face each other in open combat.

    I was interested in the Russo-American War (also called ww3), too.

    But even this Pakistani-Indian conflict would be an unimaginable disaster. It’d lower the psychological barriers to the usage of nuclear weapons. Or if the nukes aren’t used, it’d further increase complacency about how no one would ever use nukes (and so make it easier to initiate a conventional “limited” war against another nuclear power).

    And I haven’t even taken into account the actual Pakistani and Indian victims, tens of millions of whom could die.

    • Agree: melanf
  106. @Polish Perspective
    Window for poor countries to industrialise ‘closing fast’ - FT


    Very interesting article, based on solid original research by McKinsey. It ties into the discussion on manufacturing prospects for poorer countries, Ukraine and convergence in general. The TL;DR version is:

    1. Services trade is increasing much faster than goods trade(60% faster over the last decade, to be exact), and developed countries have a structural advantage in services trade. Moreover, this advantage has increased over the last decade. The few poor countries that do well in services tend to do so in more easily automated services (call centers), so their future prospects are shakier than for high-value added services, which they don't well in.

    2. Labour arbitrage is falling in importance for labour intensive manufacturing. It is now at levels not seen since the 1990s. This is bad news for poor countries given that manufacturing has been the traditional path to wealth unless A) you're tiny and oil rich or B) you're a tax-haven or C) you're a city-state. But those are outliers.

    3. Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn't be poor.

    4. Trade regionalism is growing, led by Asia and Europe. If you're outside of these tightly regional supply chains, then your scope to sell to the rich in order to get rich yourself is becoming harder.

    Some quibbles/observations: While labour arbitrage is falling, the 1990s was hardly a bad time to do convergence either. The key question is if this will continue to fall. If so, then very bad news for poorer countries. My suspicion is that it indeed will continue to fall, given the rise in automation that seems hard, if not impossible, to stop.

    Trade regionalism may not be a major impediment for Ukraine, but it will be for poorer countries outside of these clusters of trade. But one can ask why trade regionalism is growing in the first place. I think the catch-all "protectionism" excuse is unconvincing.

    Part of the answer, surely, and which is not explored in the article, is that the remaining poor countries outside of Asia are not very attractive. Business went to China because of the high quality of the workers and great infrastructure, plus the legal environment, despite much whining, was still good enough to ensure stability. You have none of that in Africa. China was also integrated into the world economy when regionalism was just as high, if not higher, as it is now. The point is that these trends are not static, nor inevitable. Businesses adapt and move to new places if there is strong potential for profit. This is evidently not the case in many of the poorer countries left outside of these value chains.

    The article mentions Vietnam. Somehow it does well despite all these headwinds. This is a perfect example when mainstream analysis is crippled by a lack of HBD understanding. Of course, HBD has its limits too, as I've frequently pointed out. Ukraine should not be as poor and growing as slowly if you only looked at its IQ and nothing else.

    Davos elites and neoliberal economists are obsessed with 'good demographics', which is solely and idiotically defined in terms of quantum of growth and youth. The research coming out, however, shows that quality of demographics is a much more important factor. India is learning this lesson painfully.

    In other words, convergence may indeed stall or even reverse. But this may simply mean that most of the world's IQ potential is nearing its natural limits given favorable economic and political systems mostly in place, with obvious exceptions (North Korea, Ukraine and a few others). Countries which still have the right ingredients for rapid growth (high IQ, decently good legal systems and stable political foundations) will continue to do well, such as Vietnam. So it is important to read the tea leaves correctly. Nevertheless, the prospective dual impact of stalling convergence and explosive population growth in much of Africa means that we're definitely going to live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

    What is the future of countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Burma, Philippines, and Cambodia?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Hey sit not far from the centre of world population (probably Bangladesh) and a little South of Asia's. With good communications, they will become service hubs. Dubai and Singapore have shown the way.
  107. I posted this before in another thread:

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-eu/ukraine-pitches-for-more-eu-aid-for-south-east-as-elections-near-idUKKCN1Q717Z

    I thought it is interesting considering the Ukrainian east-west economic divisions and nation building discussions.

  108. @reiner Tor

    with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting
     
    The issue is that it’s underreported precisely because they don’t know who to blame.

    Not being in Europe or in America’s back yard is a factor. I’ve seen it make the lead headline on BBC World and CNN International. There’s also this previously mentioned factor from the linked RT piece:

    And it all became clear! India and Pakistan are key allies of pretty much everyone apart from each other. India has lots of cash, and Pakistan has lots of access to extremely useful spy networks.

    In a situation like this, it’s really hard for the media to know who they’re allowed to blame, governments aren’t telling them who to demonize and that makes it hard for the usual invective to spew forth.

    You won’t struggle to find opinion pieces on who is to blame in Venezuela or Syria for example, but with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting. Imagine that.

    Not sure if Pakistan’s Intel value is as influential as much as its military is considered potent with decades of US and Chinese ties. Did the Pakistani government and/or Intel actually help the US in finding OBL?

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Officially the Pakistani government did not help us find OBL and the raid was a surprise to Pakistan.

    Unofficially I don't believe anything about that ridiculous story. OBL conveniently buried at sea (after revealing his pornography collection) followed by the entire SEAL team tragically dying in a helicopter crash. Right.
  109. @AP

    Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn’t be poor.
     
    So Ukraine's focus on IT development has the potential to be more than merely 2% to 3% of its economy as Beckow pessimistically predicted.

    As % of GDP, not percentage of revenue.

  110. @Polish Perspective
    Window for poor countries to industrialise ‘closing fast’ - FT


    Very interesting article, based on solid original research by McKinsey. It ties into the discussion on manufacturing prospects for poorer countries, Ukraine and convergence in general. The TL;DR version is:

    1. Services trade is increasing much faster than goods trade(60% faster over the last decade, to be exact), and developed countries have a structural advantage in services trade. Moreover, this advantage has increased over the last decade. The few poor countries that do well in services tend to do so in more easily automated services (call centers), so their future prospects are shakier than for high-value added services, which they don't well in.

    2. Labour arbitrage is falling in importance for labour intensive manufacturing. It is now at levels not seen since the 1990s. This is bad news for poor countries given that manufacturing has been the traditional path to wealth unless A) you're tiny and oil rich or B) you're a tax-haven or C) you're a city-state. But those are outliers.

    3. Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn't be poor.

    4. Trade regionalism is growing, led by Asia and Europe. If you're outside of these tightly regional supply chains, then your scope to sell to the rich in order to get rich yourself is becoming harder.

    Some quibbles/observations: While labour arbitrage is falling, the 1990s was hardly a bad time to do convergence either. The key question is if this will continue to fall. If so, then very bad news for poorer countries. My suspicion is that it indeed will continue to fall, given the rise in automation that seems hard, if not impossible, to stop.

    Trade regionalism may not be a major impediment for Ukraine, but it will be for poorer countries outside of these clusters of trade. But one can ask why trade regionalism is growing in the first place. I think the catch-all "protectionism" excuse is unconvincing.

    Part of the answer, surely, and which is not explored in the article, is that the remaining poor countries outside of Asia are not very attractive. Business went to China because of the high quality of the workers and great infrastructure, plus the legal environment, despite much whining, was still good enough to ensure stability. You have none of that in Africa. China was also integrated into the world economy when regionalism was just as high, if not higher, as it is now. The point is that these trends are not static, nor inevitable. Businesses adapt and move to new places if there is strong potential for profit. This is evidently not the case in many of the poorer countries left outside of these value chains.

    The article mentions Vietnam. Somehow it does well despite all these headwinds. This is a perfect example when mainstream analysis is crippled by a lack of HBD understanding. Of course, HBD has its limits too, as I've frequently pointed out. Ukraine should not be as poor and growing as slowly if you only looked at its IQ and nothing else.

    Davos elites and neoliberal economists are obsessed with 'good demographics', which is solely and idiotically defined in terms of quantum of growth and youth. The research coming out, however, shows that quality of demographics is a much more important factor. India is learning this lesson painfully.

    In other words, convergence may indeed stall or even reverse. But this may simply mean that most of the world's IQ potential is nearing its natural limits given favorable economic and political systems mostly in place, with obvious exceptions (North Korea, Ukraine and a few others). Countries which still have the right ingredients for rapid growth (high IQ, decently good legal systems and stable political foundations) will continue to do well, such as Vietnam. So it is important to read the tea leaves correctly. Nevertheless, the prospective dual impact of stalling convergence and explosive population growth in much of Africa means that we're definitely going to live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

    I agree that this is probably just the consequences of a Biorealistic World coming to fruition, cutting off possibilities for further convergence.

    (Convergence having been largely already attained if viewed in IQ potential terms).

    That said, one thing I have always wondered about, though I don’t think I have written specifically about, is whether structural changes in the economy might not presage a further widening of the gap between rich and poor countries (which have hitherto been obscured by the rise of China, and the abandonment of anti-growth policies in the developing world in general).

    In the future:

    1. There will be steadily more automation, which will put an even greater premium on high IQ workers.

    2. Increasing globalization (if it holds) will allow both capital and high IQ labor to migrate to countries with optimal legal environments with ever greater ease – environments that are in turn produced by informed, high IQ voters.

    3. Any genetic augmentation of IQ will likely first take place in these elite countries and/or jurisdictions.

    This obviously bodes poorly for Africa, etc.

    But it also bodes poorly for Ukraine, as its smart fractions have been substantially stripped, and its legal environment, obviously, leaves much to be desired. This is actually true for virtually all East and South European countries, though Ukraine and Moldova to the greatest extent.

  111. @Mikhail
    The Kiev regime should consider you for either minister of tourism or public relations.

    I unironically think AP would be an excellent PR spokesman for the Ukraine. They should certainly try to poach him.

    Main concern would be not to let his anti-Donbass/anti-East sentiments bubble out as that would be politically damaging.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    I believe that AP is on record as accepting the residents of the Donets Basin as Russian and has stated that the Ukrainian state is better off without them.

    This would be politically damaging to the regime in Kiev, but doesn't seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.

    , @Mr. Hack
    To your credit I have to admit that I admire your mutual friendship with AP. Your positions regarding the Ukrainian question are often diametrically opposed, something in itself that would normally drive most friendships apart. On the other hand, I have to admit that I've never encountered anybody like AP who has such a deep and genuine admiration of Russia and its culture, and yet so steadfastly supports the idea of an independent Ukraine, outside the orbit of the Russian world - a truly unique individual.
    , @Beckow
    Kiev could use better PR. They overdo the emotional, the devotion, and the rhetoric. They have a strong case and AP states it well. The problem is that some mistakes cannot be undone, not even with better PR.

    When you do a 'revolution', it is ok to attack the former elites. It is not ok to attack the massive power base of that former elite. Maidanistas slipped quickly into a de facto anti-east, anti-Russian sentiment. To say - as AP does - that Donbas can go if they want doesn't account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly and for millions a sense of hurt will set in. Kharkov or Odessa are the same as before 2014, they are Russian speaking and Russian feeling cities. That will re-assert itself.

    You don't create a unifying state idea by yelling at people. AP prefers to selectively get rid of the Russian leaning areas, but where would be the boundaries? If suffering in Kharkov is something to be happy about for the Galicians or Kiev, they will never have the Ukraine they want.

  112. @songbird
    I don't doubt that the Ukraine has higher literacy in the elderly, but 100% seems kind of like a phony statistic.

    Short of embryo selection, perhaps even with it, there's going to be some people in every society who can't read at useful level. I feel like Vietnam is probably counting theirs and the Ukraine isn't. Common type of problem in country comparisons.

    This is obviously related to the fact that Russia/Ukraine/Belorussia had became modern, universally literate societies by the 1960s, when Vietnam was still a nation of Third World peasants. Today, Vietnam would be like Russia/Ukraine in the 1960s, where all the illiterates are old people.

    • Agree: songbird
  113. @melanf

    How so? Vietnam has more than twice Ukraine’s population, yet loses to Ukraine in international math Olympiad:
     
    Ha, Russia in this area is superior to China (which has a population of almost 10 times more), and far superior to Japan (which has the same population). If we calculate the per capita figures, Russia is likely to be ahead of the United States. As you can see this is not an indicator.

    Etc. etc.
     
    This is all the result of Vietnam's initially much lower "base". All the experts on the Far East known to me unanimously say that Vietnam (with a time delay) is developing along the same trajectory as Taiwan, South Korea, China. Therefore, I think that Vietnam (at least in the conditions of today's life) has a huge superiority in terms of human capital over Ukraine. For Russia (due to obvious factors), Ukrainian migrants are probably preferable to Vietnamese migrants. But if I were the head of the Australian immigration service, I'd prefer the Vietnamese.

    In fairness, Vietnam seems to be growing at around 7% – see a graph of its historical GDP per capita (PPP adjusted, constant dollars) vs. India, they match almost one for one.

    In contrast, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and now China have all grown at 10% during their periods of intensive industrialization.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    I wonder--might PISA be overstating Vietnam's average IQ? Specifically, might a lot of dull Vietnamese not take the PISA test and thus make Vietnam look smarter than it actually is?

    Of course, this might be mitigated to some extent by the very real possibility that Vietnam hasn't actually reached its genetic ceiling in regards to average IQ yet.
  114. @AP

    Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn’t be poor.
     
    So Ukraine's focus on IT development has the potential to be more than merely 2% to 3% of its economy as Beckow pessimistically predicted.

    For god’s sake don’t always compare apples and oranges. Business revenue and how it is allocated is only a subset of GNP. And the idea that all of R&D/IT (let’s say 13%) would be outsourced by companies to Ukraine is preposterous.

    You similarly mixed in railroad tunnels and trains with business logistics – they are not the same. If a business wants to move a product it needs freeways or good roads, easy to cross borders and not the nightmare backups currently on the Ukraine borders. In Slovakia a freeway ends in Kosice – it is hours on bad country roads from there to reach Ukraine. And in Ukraine it connects to even a worse 2-way highway. This is a logistics nightmare and no business wants to deal with it. There is no current plan to extend the freeway – it would be very expensive, the area is underdeveloped, and frankly it has no benefit for Slovakia. So who is going to build that freeway connecting to Ukraine? And when? 25-30 years from now?

    Yes, people can carry baggage on slow trains or buses, great. Or they can answer phones in Lviv. You are not going to build an economy integrated with EU supply chains with that. This is a multi-generational reorientation of the Ukraine economy towards west – it will take a huge amount of investment and there has to be a return on that investment. Right now it is spotty.

    What you have are Ukrainians migrating to work, and most get paid less and do the work that locals are not willing to do – some do very low-level stuff. You also have the energy supply chains reorienting from Ukraine towards Germany, Baltic and Turkey-Balkans. Companies are paying attention to that. Logistics and energy are behind most business decisions.

    My conclusion is that Ukraine is slipping further back and that the badly thought out 2014 treaty with EU has not worked. Yanukovitch was told by his experts that it will cost Ukraine more than it will gain (I think $100-200 billion more in costs). The losses have been bigger than gains. A stupid business or economic decision is still stupid even if it makes you emotionally happy (“we are going to Europe!!! mammamia…”). And don’t again tell us about the happy cafes in Lviv, that’s a detail, economies need more.

    • Replies: @AP

    You similarly mixed in railroad tunnels and trains with business logistics – they are not the same
     
    You stated that no railway tunnels were built and I showed that a large one was built that eliminated a major bottleneck and quadrupled the number of trains that send goods to the West.

    You said there were no highways in eastern Europe to the Ukrainian border but AK showed there was a large one in Poland. The Ukrainian side will have one completed on its side of the border within 1-2 years. This will help all of the new factories being built by western companies in Lviv oblast.

    In Slovakia a freeway ends in Kosice – it is hours on bad country roads from there to reach Ukraine...
     
    According to googlemap it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    I guess when you write something negative about Ukraine your estimates should be divided by two or so.

    There is no current plan to extend the freeway
     
    Actually an extension is planned and a tiny part is already under construction (green is completed, red is under construction, grey is planned):

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Highways_SK_map.svg/1920px-Highways_SK_map.svg.png

    I do not know the timeline but presumably not 25 years.

    So you have a clear pattern of exaggeration when it comes to negative things about Ukraine. Congratulations, you are an intelligent person and correct with respect to many things, but you share the Ukrainian Derangement Syndrome with Sovoks and Russian nationalists.
  115. Will it be a good or bad thing if China decided to cargo cult Calvinism?

  116. @Mikhail

    Of course, not everything is about Putler.
     
    Especially true regarding Porky.

    The unification of Austria and the Sudetenland were accepted by Britain and France.
     

    But the anschluss of the Crimea has not been recognized by anybody of importance.
     
    The anschluss term used concerning Crimea is propagandistic hogwash. Austria and Germany were never part of the same nation prior to 1938 - much unlike Crimea's relationship with Russia.

    Russia is nothing closely resembling Nazi Germany. Better comparisons with Crimea can be made relative to northern Cyprus and Kosovo. BTW, with the exception of Turkey, no other country recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

    Crimea's changed territorial status getting greater scorn highlights the gross hypocrisy out there.

    Related:

    https://www.academia.edu/37358188/Michael_Averko_Consistency_and_Reality_Lacking_on_Crimea

    You’re confusing nation and state.

    Austria is a German nation which lies outside of the German state.

    Though as AP pointed out there is shared political history beyond its seven years in Greater Germany.

    In addition to the Holy Roman Empire there was the Carolingian Empire, East Francia, the Kingdom of the Germans, and the German Confederation.

    When King Edward VII attempted to persuade the last Hapsburg Kaiser Franz Josef to abandon his alliance with the German Empire in favor of an understanding with the Entente, Franz Josef’s simple reply was, “I am a German prince.”

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Austria and Germany had been separate for centuries prior to 1938. Centuries ago, the HRE was a loose entity of which territory making up Germany and Austria were a part of. Perfectly aware that Austria and Germany (particularly Austria and southern Germany) share a good deal in common.

    There's no great movement in Austria and Germany to get together as one. If presented, I sense it might receive a good deal of support.

    I steadfastly maintain that the analogy between Crimea reuniting with Russia being on par with the 1938 Anschluss is propagandistic babble - designed to take attention away from the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. At issue is anti-Russian hypocrisy.

    Russia doesn't resemble Nazi Germany. Note that Nazis implemented the Anschluss before a referendum on the matter was to occur in Austria. As noted, over the course of the last few centuries, Crimea and Russia have a greater length of togetherness than Austria and Germany. In addition, Austria hasn't been exposed to the kind of provocation which Crimea faced, following the coup against Ukraine's democratically elected president.

  117. @Mikhail
    Should've read as Austria having never been part of Germany before 1938.

    So the "Holy Roman Empire" wasn't a loosely associated enterprise unlike Rus? Question rhetorically presented as such in recognition of your belittling of Rus as a basis for Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian togetherness.

    Besides the post Mongol yoke Russian Empire period, a good portion of Crimean territory was part of Rus, well before the Tatars arrived there. Crimea's re-association with Russia was to a good extent motivated by the troubling Tatar raids from Crimea against eastern Slavs and some others.

    The Holy Roman Empire (full title: Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation) was only finally dissolved in 1806.

    The German Confederation was created in 1815. The German Question, which was whether Austria or Prussia would dominate German affairs, then dominated inter-German politics under Prussian arms answered the question at Koeniggraetz.

    Austria was so obviously German that the victors in both World Wars found it necessary to forbid Anschluss in the Treaty of Versailles and the Austrian State Treaty. In the interwar period the independent state of Austria was formally named “German Austria”.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    In the interwar period the independent state of Austria was formally named “German Austria”.

    Strictly speaking I guess this is technically correct, although it is my understanding that the Deutschösterreich ceased to exist with the signing of the Treaty of Saint-Germain in 1919.
  118. @Mikhail
    Not being in Europe or in America's back yard is a factor. I've seen it make the lead headline on BBC World and CNN International. There's also this previously mentioned factor from the linked RT piece:

    And it all became clear! India and Pakistan are key allies of pretty much everyone apart from each other. India has lots of cash, and Pakistan has lots of access to extremely useful spy networks.

    In a situation like this, it’s really hard for the media to know who they’re allowed to blame, governments aren’t telling them who to demonize and that makes it hard for the usual invective to spew forth.

    You won’t struggle to find opinion pieces on who is to blame in Venezuela or Syria for example, but with Kashmir there has been a torrent of balanced factual reporting. Imagine that.
     

    Not sure if Pakistan's Intel value is as influential as much as its military is considered potent with decades of US and Chinese ties. Did the Pakistani government and/or Intel actually help the US in finding OBL?

    Officially the Pakistani government did not help us find OBL and the raid was a surprise to Pakistan.

    Unofficially I don’t believe anything about that ridiculous story. OBL conveniently buried at sea (after revealing his pornography collection) followed by the entire SEAL team tragically dying in a helicopter crash. Right.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Agree. OBL had been in Pakistan for long time. If the Pakistani authorities didn't know about this for much of that period, then how good is their Intel value to the West? Pakistan took offense to the US government act on OBL in Pakistani territory. Obviously, the US only trusts Pakistan up to a point.

    A matter that leads to one school of thought, suggesting an inner Pakistani conflict involving those more sympathetic to the likes of OBL. That very mindset explains why India launched a recent strike into Pakistani held territory. The Indians have noted that their previously submitted proof of terrorism in Pakistan/Pakistani held territory has been second guessed by the Pakistani government. Hence, India took a kind of Israeli option.
  119. As Donald Trump and other leaders in the West move to erect barriers to immigration, Japan is moving in the opposite direction.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-26/japan-has-a-new-guest-worker-program-just-don-t-call-it-an-immigration-policy

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Article from an alternate world?
  120. @Anatoly Karlin
    I unironically think AP would be an excellent PR spokesman for the Ukraine. They should certainly try to poach him.

    Main concern would be not to let his anti-Donbass/anti-East sentiments bubble out as that would be politically damaging.

    I believe that AP is on record as accepting the residents of the Donets Basin as Russian and has stated that the Ukrainian state is better off without them.

    This would be politically damaging to the regime in Kiev, but doesn’t seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    True, though this would still not be politically acceptable now or for a number of years afterwards (some Ukrainian politician/businessman who suggested cutting a deal on Crimea had treason charges levied against him). However, he has also made it clear he sympathizes more with West Ukraine (Kiev and the areas west of it) than with the more Russian and deracinated East, which would play even less well.

    ... but doesn’t seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.
     
    He doesn't wish them ill, but he's made it pretty clear over the years that he has a low opinion on easterners, and especially the Donbass. It would be necessary for him to mask his contempt/distaste if he becomes its chief spokesman.
  121. @Thorfinnsson
    I believe the childish game of not "accepting" territorial revisions is a postwar innovation. I can recall seeing embarrassing Cold War era maps of the USSR which included the ridiculous text that the US government did not "recognize" the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union.

    Here's a map of Austria-Hungary from 1911:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/austria_hungary_1911.jpg

    Note that Bosnia-Herzogovina, annexed in 1908, is shown as part of Austria-Hungary.

    Here's one of all of Europe from the same year, with a helpful size comparison to Illinois for some reason:

    http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/europe_1911.jpg

    Bosnia-Herzegovina also shown as unambiguously Austro-Hungarian. Schleswig-Holstein and Alsace-Lorraine shown as part of Germany. No funny business about not accepting reality.

    I've decided I'm not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.

    I’ve decided I’m not going to recognize the existence of Canada anymore, and henceforth I shall be revising all maps in my possession to reflect my non-recognition of Canadian sovereignty.

    Thorfy, you may markup the books within your own private library anyway you like. But trying to compare your own importance with those of countries within the international community is a little bit over the top? Do you own any astronomical maps within your library? Here’s a change that you might want to consider too:

    🙂

  122. The maps I used come from the University of Texas’ Perry-Castaneda Map Collection: https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/

    Nice little resource many people here will appreciate.

  123. @Anatoly Karlin
    I unironically think AP would be an excellent PR spokesman for the Ukraine. They should certainly try to poach him.

    Main concern would be not to let his anti-Donbass/anti-East sentiments bubble out as that would be politically damaging.

    To your credit I have to admit that I admire your mutual friendship with AP. Your positions regarding the Ukrainian question are often diametrically opposed, something in itself that would normally drive most friendships apart. On the other hand, I have to admit that I’ve never encountered anybody like AP who has such a deep and genuine admiration of Russia and its culture, and yet so steadfastly supports the idea of an independent Ukraine, outside the orbit of the Russian world – a truly unique individual.

    • Agree: Mr. XYZ
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    Anatoly, you don't agree with my sentiments about you and AP?...

    AK: Why would I not? But it is a funny observation.
  124. You have a point, the difference today are the institutions. In the past the concepts like recognition were more real, Habsburgs moved in, annexed a land, and that was it: power directly translated into reality.

    Today we have the f..ing institutions everywhere, membership rolls, rules, busybodies meetings about commas on our behalf in Geneva (that actually happens). Recognizing realities is more complex, they keep track of stuff.

    Crimea is on the outs for now. That is common, there are dozens of similar cases all over the world, from Cyprus, Kosovo, Taiwan to tiny enclaves ‘unrecognized’ and ignored.

    All institutions exist to mask raw exercise of power. It is true for courts, parliaments, commissions, etc… Instead of the powerful walking over and doing what they want, they stop by an institution, pretend to deliberate a bit, do some paperwork, and then they do what they want. It is more civilised that way. If the power shifts, the institutions will too, but it is a slow process.

    I cannot visualise Crimea reverting to Ukraine in our lifetimes, the demographics just isn’t there. Maidan gave Kremlin an opening and they moved fast. It will be in an institutional limbo for a very long time and eventually people will create work-arounds to deal with it. Then the next post-modernist moron in Russia will gift it on a 500-year anniversary of something. Probably to Turkey.

    Having said that, I don’t recognise Canada either; deracinated moose f..ers with a 12-year old kid as a leader? No, not a country in my book, they get one more chance.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Then the next post-modernist moron in Russia will gift it on a 500-year anniversary of something. Probably to Turkey.
     
    Not happening. Crimean Tatars are only something like 12% of the total Crimean population. Plus, Russia refuses to even give Chechnya its independence even though Russia would be better off without the Chechens.
  125. @Polish Perspective
    Window for poor countries to industrialise ‘closing fast’ - FT


    Very interesting article, based on solid original research by McKinsey. It ties into the discussion on manufacturing prospects for poorer countries, Ukraine and convergence in general. The TL;DR version is:

    1. Services trade is increasing much faster than goods trade(60% faster over the last decade, to be exact), and developed countries have a structural advantage in services trade. Moreover, this advantage has increased over the last decade. The few poor countries that do well in services tend to do so in more easily automated services (call centers), so their future prospects are shakier than for high-value added services, which they don't well in.

    2. Labour arbitrage is falling in importance for labour intensive manufacturing. It is now at levels not seen since the 1990s. This is bad news for poor countries given that manufacturing has been the traditional path to wealth unless A) you're tiny and oil rich or B) you're a tax-haven or C) you're a city-state. But those are outliers.

    3. Value-chains are increasingly becoming more knowledge-intensive. The figure is that spending on R&D, software development, IP etc has gone from 5.4 percent of revenue in 2000 to 13.1 percent in 2016. This is self-evidently not a strong suit of poor countries, else they wouldn't be poor.

    4. Trade regionalism is growing, led by Asia and Europe. If you're outside of these tightly regional supply chains, then your scope to sell to the rich in order to get rich yourself is becoming harder.

    Some quibbles/observations: While labour arbitrage is falling, the 1990s was hardly a bad time to do convergence either. The key question is if this will continue to fall. If so, then very bad news for poorer countries. My suspicion is that it indeed will continue to fall, given the rise in automation that seems hard, if not impossible, to stop.

    Trade regionalism may not be a major impediment for Ukraine, but it will be for poorer countries outside of these clusters of trade. But one can ask why trade regionalism is growing in the first place. I think the catch-all "protectionism" excuse is unconvincing.

    Part of the answer, surely, and which is not explored in the article, is that the remaining poor countries outside of Asia are not very attractive. Business went to China because of the high quality of the workers and great infrastructure, plus the legal environment, despite much whining, was still good enough to ensure stability. You have none of that in Africa. China was also integrated into the world economy when regionalism was just as high, if not higher, as it is now. The point is that these trends are not static, nor inevitable. Businesses adapt and move to new places if there is strong potential for profit. This is evidently not the case in many of the poorer countries left outside of these value chains.

    The article mentions Vietnam. Somehow it does well despite all these headwinds. This is a perfect example when mainstream analysis is crippled by a lack of HBD understanding. Of course, HBD has its limits too, as I've frequently pointed out. Ukraine should not be as poor and growing as slowly if you only looked at its IQ and nothing else.

    Davos elites and neoliberal economists are obsessed with 'good demographics', which is solely and idiotically defined in terms of quantum of growth and youth. The research coming out, however, shows that quality of demographics is a much more important factor. India is learning this lesson painfully.

    In other words, convergence may indeed stall or even reverse. But this may simply mean that most of the world's IQ potential is nearing its natural limits given favorable economic and political systems mostly in place, with obvious exceptions (North Korea, Ukraine and a few others). Countries which still have the right ingredients for rapid growth (high IQ, decently good legal systems and stable political foundations) will continue to do well, such as Vietnam. So it is important to read the tea leaves correctly. Nevertheless, the prospective dual impact of stalling convergence and explosive population growth in much of Africa means that we're definitely going to live in interesting times as the Chinese like to say.

    Much of this trend reflects a successful effort by the developed countries to permanently lock-in their advantages in the global value chain by increasing the role of and legally privileging “intellectual property”. A lot of the trade in “services” reflects this as well. Royalties from patent-licensing are now a large part of American and Japanese exports.

    If you read the terms under which China was admitted to the WTO, this was a very strong trend even then. The Chinese believed they could meet the challenge anyway and were right (Godfree Roberts wrote an interesting piece on this), though there are still some challenges for them as shown when the US Government toyed with destroying ZTE.

    There is no law of nature requiring countries to develop by pursuing export-led industrialization. This development strategy is an artifact of the “American-led rules-based international order” we hear so much about.

    I also wonder how much of the increase in services as a share of economic output reflects the global collapse of families.

  126. @Thorfinnsson
    I believe that AP is on record as accepting the residents of the Donets Basin as Russian and has stated that the Ukrainian state is better off without them.

    This would be politically damaging to the regime in Kiev, but doesn't seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.

    True, though this would still not be politically acceptable now or for a number of years afterwards (some Ukrainian politician/businessman who suggested cutting a deal on Crimea had treason charges levied against him). However, he has also made it clear he sympathizes more with West Ukraine (Kiev and the areas west of it) than with the more Russian and deracinated East, which would play even less well.

    … but doesn’t seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.

    He doesn’t wish them ill, but he’s made it pretty clear over the years that he has a low opinion on easterners, and especially the Donbass. It would be necessary for him to mask his contempt/distaste if he becomes its chief spokesman.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    He seems an order of magnitude friendlier than Azov Battalion stalwarts with their brotherly feelings for "Moskals".

    AP also deserves credit for not having the schizophrenic feelings common in ethnic territorial disputes. The way many Russians simultaneously view Ukrainians as being Russian and African is interesting to say the least.

    I get the impression that AP denigrates the East as being more socially and culturally degenerate than the West. Seems to me like the Donets Basin has some of the social pathologies common in other decaying heavy industrial regions globally like the Rustbelt, Ruhr Area, Midlands, Manchuria, etc.
    , @AP

    He doesn’t wish them ill, but he’s made it pretty clear over the years that he has a low opinion on easterners, and especially the Donbass.
     
    Correct. I see Sovok as the filth that it is and accordingly view the Sovietized people of Donbas with contempt. But I do not revel in their high abortion rates, homicide rates, prostitution rates, etc. I had hoped that they could have been saved from Sovokdom through Ukrainianization but this hasn't happened; accordingly, I hope Russia can at least turn them into normal people instead.
  127. @Mr. Hack
    To your credit I have to admit that I admire your mutual friendship with AP. Your positions regarding the Ukrainian question are often diametrically opposed, something in itself that would normally drive most friendships apart. On the other hand, I have to admit that I've never encountered anybody like AP who has such a deep and genuine admiration of Russia and its culture, and yet so steadfastly supports the idea of an independent Ukraine, outside the orbit of the Russian world - a truly unique individual.

    Anatoly, you don’t agree with my sentiments about you and AP?…

    AK: Why would I not? But it is a funny observation.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    Anatoly,

    I meant every word that I wrote. Please do indulge me here. So what was so funny anyway?? If you haven't already noticed, I'm a big fan of using humor and sarcasm to illustrate some of my points, but I'm a little confused with your interpretation here?

  128. @Anatoly Karlin
    I unironically think AP would be an excellent PR spokesman for the Ukraine. They should certainly try to poach him.

    Main concern would be not to let his anti-Donbass/anti-East sentiments bubble out as that would be politically damaging.

    Kiev could use better PR. They overdo the emotional, the devotion, and the rhetoric. They have a strong case and AP states it well. The problem is that some mistakes cannot be undone, not even with better PR.

    When you do a ‘revolution’, it is ok to attack the former elites. It is not ok to attack the massive power base of that former elite. Maidanistas slipped quickly into a de facto anti-east, anti-Russian sentiment. To say – as AP does – that Donbas can go if they want doesn’t account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly and for millions a sense of hurt will set in. Kharkov or Odessa are the same as before 2014, they are Russian speaking and Russian feeling cities. That will re-assert itself.

    You don’t create a unifying state idea by yelling at people. AP prefers to selectively get rid of the Russian leaning areas, but where would be the boundaries? If suffering in Kharkov is something to be happy about for the Galicians or Kiev, they will never have the Ukraine they want.

    • Replies: @AP

    To say – as AP does – that Donbas can go if they want doesn’t account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.
     
    Without Donbas and Crimea, the Russian-affiliated people in Ukraine are a minority and skewed towards the elderly. Kharkiv is the only remaining place in Ukraine where pro-Russians have clear majority support in the general population. But among people under 30, it is a 50/50 split.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly
     
    Maidan was 5 years ago. No real resurgence in pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, no desire to come back to Russia.
    , @Mikhail

    Kiev could use better PR. They overdo the emotional, the devotion, and the rhetoric. They have a strong case and AP states it well. The problem is that some mistakes cannot be undone, not even with better PR.
     
    Such is the reality in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine. Gets back to a point someone (perhaps you) recently made about the Kiev regime preferring the image of itself as an important fortress for the West, instead of seeing the benefits of improving relations with Russia.

    This mindest is subject to change in terms of its influence. For now, it's quite noticeable.
  129. @Anatoly Karlin
    True, though this would still not be politically acceptable now or for a number of years afterwards (some Ukrainian politician/businessman who suggested cutting a deal on Crimea had treason charges levied against him). However, he has also made it clear he sympathizes more with West Ukraine (Kiev and the areas west of it) than with the more Russian and deracinated East, which would play even less well.

    ... but doesn’t seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.
     
    He doesn't wish them ill, but he's made it pretty clear over the years that he has a low opinion on easterners, and especially the Donbass. It would be necessary for him to mask his contempt/distaste if he becomes its chief spokesman.

    He seems an order of magnitude friendlier than Azov Battalion stalwarts with their brotherly feelings for “Moskals”.

    AP also deserves credit for not having the schizophrenic feelings common in ethnic territorial disputes. The way many Russians simultaneously view Ukrainians as being Russian and African is interesting to say the least.

    I get the impression that AP denigrates the East as being more socially and culturally degenerate than the West. Seems to me like the Donets Basin has some of the social pathologies common in other decaying heavy industrial regions globally like the Rustbelt, Ruhr Area, Midlands, Manchuria, etc.

    • Replies: @AP

    I get the impression that AP denigrates the East as being more socially and culturally degenerate than the West. Seems to me like the Donets Basin has some of the social pathologies common in other decaying heavy industrial regions globally like the Rustbelt, Ruhr Area, Midlands, Manchuria, etc.
     
    I've lived int he American Rustbelt. Rustbelt people are decent, often church-going, Polish or Irish proles from places like Cleveland or Buffalo or Pittsburgh,who might drink or brawl sometimes but are good people. Donbas was thoroughly Sovietized. Its the abortion capital of the world, fatherless child capital of Ukraine, and the HIV capital of the white world. To the extent it is like the Rust Belt, it is like inner city Detroit.
  130. @AP

    Comedians and outsiders tend to collapse as the election day nears, I would be surprised if Zelensky is an exception
     
    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn't doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I'd guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.

    – The military stalemate means a de facto win for the separatists in Donbas – if a rebellion is not suppressed, it is a win
     
    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    – Financial situation of Ukraine will deteriorate: debts will have to be paid, gas transit money will dry up, the export markets are not opening up.
     
    Russian Wiki says nord stream 2 comes online in January 2020, not 2019.

    Exports are up over last year. GDP grew 3.4% in 2018, but growth is predicted to slow to 2.5% in 2019. So ongoing growth.

    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.

    It’s a reminder of how bad it is to defy Kiev and not get annexed, or at least recognized, by Russia afterward.

    And even that is only true as long as the DLNR remains less wealthy than the eastern regions which did not rebel. Which may not be too long, if Ukraine continues to neglect the east, while Russia continues to subsidize the DLNR.

    Unfortunately, we don’t yet have any GDP statistics from the DLNR, but the anecdotal evidence indicates continued economic recovery. For example, it was just reported that sales by the DNR’s metallurgical enterprises rose from 51 billion rubles in 2016 to 102 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) in 2018. And in January the DNR government endorsed the first annual budget in its history: Previously, the economic situation had been too precarious to budget for more than three months at a time (although neither income or expenditures are made public “due to the martial law”).

    • Replies: @AP

    It’s a reminder of how bad it is to defy Kiev and not get annexed, or at least recognized, by Russia afterward.
     
    Correct.

    And even that is only true as long as the DLNR remains less wealthy than the eastern regions which did not rebel. Which may not be too long, if Ukraine continues to neglect the east, while Russia continues to subsidize the DLNR.
     
    It would still be years. And then you add destruction, population loss, etc.
  131. @Mr. XYZ

    Agree. If Zelensky keeps Tymoshenko out of the 2nd round, Poroshenko has a good chance of winning. A lot of people voting for him in protest in the first round might not want a totally inexperienced comedian as president. I wouldn’t doubt if some dirt comes up about him in time for the second round, after he has fulfilled his duty of keeping Tymoshenko out.

    So I’d guess 60% chance of Poroshenko getting a 2nd term.
     

    Given Ukraine's poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you're supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn't much of an accomplishment), I really wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky wins. I mean, when your mainstream politicians have consistently failed to deliver for a couple of decades, you might as well try something new. Heck, I myself would probably vote for Zelensky if I had to choose between him and Poroshenko in the second round and if I was actually a Ukrainian citizen (I'm not).

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania--thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky's victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.


    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.
     
    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though. If one subscribes to such a view, then the mistake would not have been so much in having the Donbass rebel as in having Russia refuse to annex the Donbass afterwards.

    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though.

    They’d probably also have been in much better shape if the rest of the east had joined Donbass in rebellion. That’s why I have no sympathy for the eastern regions that remained loyal to Kiev: They chose to side with a regime that despises them, leaving the DLNR to face military assault and economic blockade alone, so they deserve everything they get as a consequence.

    • Replies: @AP

    That’s why I have no sympathy for the eastern regions that remained loyal to Kiev: They chose to side with a regime that despises them,
     
    Azov is from Kharkiv, as is their sponsor, the interior minister Avakov (who actually came within a couple % points of winning Kharkiv's mayoral election, under Yanukovich).

    During Maidan, judging by vkonakte, the young people were about evenly split between pro and anti.

    While pro-Russian views still have majority sentiment there especially when one takes into consideration the older people, the city is certainly no Donbas.
  132. @AP

    Given Ukraine’s poor shape (granted, the west is faring better than the east, but having 3% annual GDP growth when you’re supposed to have 7% annual GDP growth isn’t much of an accomplishment)
     
    Well, it's about 4% growth per capita.

    Also, why is Ukraine supposed to have 7% annual growth? It is in the same general ballpark as Belarus and Moldova.

    This sort of reminds me of how Donald Trump won in 2016. Specifically, the Republican base was so fed up with the Republican establishment that they chose someone with absolutely no experience as their 2016 presidential nominee. Trump then proceeded to win the general election by winning over enough working-class White voters in the Rust Belt to win the electoral votes of the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania–thus giving him enough electoral votes to win the US Presidency in 2016. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if a similar factor would result in Zelensky’s victory in Ukraine if he actually makes it to the second round.
     
    Zelensky isn't even a Trump. He is someone who played a Trump on TV. His campaign is financed by one of the oligarchs (Kolomoysky, who like Zelensky is Jewish). People are voting for him as a protest in the first round which won't result in the presidency, but it's not as likely that he will win in the second round.

    If he knocks out Tymoshenko by absorbing some of her anti-Poroshenko votes this will have been impressive.

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.

    More like 3.4%. Per the World Bank, in 2017 the difference between Ukraine’s growth and per capita growth was 2.54% vs. 2.95%.

    • Replies: @AP
    Ukraine's GDP grew 3.4% in 4th quarter 2018 compared to 4th quarter 2017, so it would be just under 4% (about 3.8%) per capita.
  133. @Mr. Hack
    Anatoly, you don't agree with my sentiments about you and AP?...

    AK: Why would I not? But it is a funny observation.

    Anatoly,

    I meant every word that I wrote. Please do indulge me here. So what was so funny anyway?? If you haven’t already noticed, I’m a big fan of using humor and sarcasm to illustrate some of my points, but I’m a little confused with your interpretation here?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    The unlikeliness of it is funny, that this blog amalgamates so many unusual people is funny.
  134. @Mr. Hack
    Anatoly,

    I meant every word that I wrote. Please do indulge me here. So what was so funny anyway?? If you haven't already noticed, I'm a big fan of using humor and sarcasm to illustrate some of my points, but I'm a little confused with your interpretation here?

    The unlikeliness of it is funny, that this blog amalgamates so many unusual people is funny.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    Funny or not, I think that there's something really good to be learned from you two. How do you do it?

    Imaginary conversation netween AK & AP:

    AK: Ukraine would be better off within Russia's political orbit, after all we have so much in common and both have our roots in Kyivan Rus.

    AP: Why that may be true to some extent, don't forget that large parts of Ukraine have had incredibly long periods of time developing under the umbrella of Western states, that has left its indelible imprint on the Ukrainian psyche differentiating it markedly from its neighbor to the north. Also, climate and Russia's inherent imperial quest has not always boded well for Ukrainians.

    AK: But you have to admit that Russia's imperial nature was to a great extent the creative endeavor of both the Great Russians and the Little Russians too. Look at how many Little Russians shared in the bounty of imperial greatness?

    AP: Yes perhaps, but at what price? Sure, hundreds of Little Russians did well for themselves in the Russian north, but they all, to a greater or lesser extent had to trade in their Ukrainian soul for a Russian one, something that millions of Ukrainians today are not willing to do.

    Etc; etc; etc;....

  135. @Jon0815

    Well, it’s about 4% growth per capita.
     
    More like 3.4%. Per the World Bank, in 2017 the difference between Ukraine's growth and per capita growth was 2.54% vs. 2.95%.

    Ukraine’s GDP grew 3.4% in 4th quarter 2018 compared to 4th quarter 2017, so it would be just under 4% (about 3.8%) per capita.

  136. AP says:
    @Jon0815

    One could speculate that the rebel-controlled parts of the Donbass would have been in much better shape right now had Russia actually annexed these territories like it did with Crimea, though.
     
    They'd probably also have been in much better shape if the rest of the east had joined Donbass in rebellion. That's why I have no sympathy for the eastern regions that remained loyal to Kiev: They chose to side with a regime that despises them, leaving the DLNR to face military assault and economic blockade alone, so they deserve everything they get as a consequence.

    That’s why I have no sympathy for the eastern regions that remained loyal to Kiev: They chose to side with a regime that despises them,

    Azov is from Kharkiv, as is their sponsor, the interior minister Avakov (who actually came within a couple % points of winning Kharkiv’s mayoral election, under Yanukovich).

    During Maidan, judging by vkonakte, the young people were about evenly split between pro and anti.

    While pro-Russian views still have majority sentiment there especially when one takes into consideration the older people, the city is certainly no Donbas.

  137. AP says:
    @Jon0815

    Questionable. The rebellion wanted to include huge parts of Ukraine but has been limited to just parts of the two Donbas oblasts. Their poor condition serves as a reminder for how bad it is to defy Kiev. So mixed result.
     
    It's a reminder of how bad it is to defy Kiev and not get annexed, or at least recognized, by Russia afterward.

    And even that is only true as long as the DLNR remains less wealthy than the eastern regions which did not rebel. Which may not be too long, if Ukraine continues to neglect the east, while Russia continues to subsidize the DLNR.

    Unfortunately, we don't yet have any GDP statistics from the DLNR, but the anecdotal evidence indicates continued economic recovery. For example, it was just reported that sales by the DNR's metallurgical enterprises rose from 51 billion rubles in 2016 to 102 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) in 2018. And in January the DNR government endorsed the first annual budget in its history: Previously, the economic situation had been too precarious to budget for more than three months at a time (although neither income or expenditures are made public "due to the martial law").

    It’s a reminder of how bad it is to defy Kiev and not get annexed, or at least recognized, by Russia afterward.

    Correct.

    And even that is only true as long as the DLNR remains less wealthy than the eastern regions which did not rebel. Which may not be too long, if Ukraine continues to neglect the east, while Russia continues to subsidize the DLNR.

    It would still be years. And then you add destruction, population loss, etc.

  138. AP says:
    @Beckow
    Kiev could use better PR. They overdo the emotional, the devotion, and the rhetoric. They have a strong case and AP states it well. The problem is that some mistakes cannot be undone, not even with better PR.

    When you do a 'revolution', it is ok to attack the former elites. It is not ok to attack the massive power base of that former elite. Maidanistas slipped quickly into a de facto anti-east, anti-Russian sentiment. To say - as AP does - that Donbas can go if they want doesn't account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly and for millions a sense of hurt will set in. Kharkov or Odessa are the same as before 2014, they are Russian speaking and Russian feeling cities. That will re-assert itself.

    You don't create a unifying state idea by yelling at people. AP prefers to selectively get rid of the Russian leaning areas, but where would be the boundaries? If suffering in Kharkov is something to be happy about for the Galicians or Kiev, they will never have the Ukraine they want.

    To say – as AP does – that Donbas can go if they want doesn’t account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.

    Without Donbas and Crimea, the Russian-affiliated people in Ukraine are a minority and skewed towards the elderly. Kharkiv is the only remaining place in Ukraine where pro-Russians have clear majority support in the general population. But among people under 30, it is a 50/50 split.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly

    Maidan was 5 years ago. No real resurgence in pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, no desire to come back to Russia.

    • Replies: @Beckow

    ...Without Donbas and Crimea, the Russian-affiliated people in Ukraine are a minority
     
    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of 'going to Europe' aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That's Europe. If Ukraine is instead aspiring to join Turkey or Pakistan, I could see your glee that 'Russians are only a minority'. But with this kind of thinking Ukraine doesn't belong in EU. We will call you on it.

    No real resurgence in pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, no desire to come back to Russia.
     
    Nobody was 'in Russia', so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity). They have been largely suppressed. My point is that when this anti-Russian mania blows over, they will still be there. And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don't hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.
  139. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    True, though this would still not be politically acceptable now or for a number of years afterwards (some Ukrainian politician/businessman who suggested cutting a deal on Crimea had treason charges levied against him). However, he has also made it clear he sympathizes more with West Ukraine (Kiev and the areas west of it) than with the more Russian and deracinated East, which would play even less well.

    ... but doesn’t seem to be hostile to the actual people in question.
     
    He doesn't wish them ill, but he's made it pretty clear over the years that he has a low opinion on easterners, and especially the Donbass. It would be necessary for him to mask his contempt/distaste if he becomes its chief spokesman.

    He doesn’t wish them ill, but he’s made it pretty clear over the years that he has a low opinion on easterners, and especially the Donbass.

    Correct. I see Sovok as the filth that it is and accordingly view the Sovietized people of Donbas with contempt. But I do not revel in their high abortion rates, homicide rates, prostitution rates, etc. I had hoped that they could have been saved from Sovokdom through Ukrainianization but this hasn’t happened; accordingly, I hope Russia can at least turn them into normal people instead.

  140. AP says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    He seems an order of magnitude friendlier than Azov Battalion stalwarts with their brotherly feelings for "Moskals".

    AP also deserves credit for not having the schizophrenic feelings common in ethnic territorial disputes. The way many Russians simultaneously view Ukrainians as being Russian and African is interesting to say the least.

    I get the impression that AP denigrates the East as being more socially and culturally degenerate than the West. Seems to me like the Donets Basin has some of the social pathologies common in other decaying heavy industrial regions globally like the Rustbelt, Ruhr Area, Midlands, Manchuria, etc.

    I get the impression that AP denigrates the East as being more socially and culturally degenerate than the West. Seems to me like the Donets Basin has some of the social pathologies common in other decaying heavy industrial regions globally like the Rustbelt, Ruhr Area, Midlands, Manchuria, etc.

    I’ve lived int he American Rustbelt. Rustbelt people are decent, often church-going, Polish or Irish proles from places like Cleveland or Buffalo or Pittsburgh,who might drink or brawl sometimes but are good people. Donbas was thoroughly Sovietized. Its the abortion capital of the world, fatherless child capital of Ukraine, and the HIV capital of the white world. To the extent it is like the Rust Belt, it is like inner city Detroit.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    I live in the American rustbelt.

    The white American proletariat is undergoing negrization.

    Family structure is collapsing. Abortion is not widespread. But single motherhood, bastardy, long-term cohabitation, and blended families are. Fatherlessness proper is fortunately not common, as most children born in these chaotic family structures have at least some involvement of their fathers (who are often functionally enslaved by the child support system).

    Where "diversity" exists, miscegenation also exists. Couplings and reproduction with lesser races like negros, mestizos, and filipinos are common.

    Drug abuse is rife and growing. Unfortunately, very serious and dangerous drugs like methamphetamines, heroin, and "bath salts" are increasingly common even though their possession is a felony.

    Tattoos (including facial tattoos), consumption of negro "music" like hip-hop and rap, and usage of negro vernacular is widespread. The term "baby daddy" for instance is employed without irony.

    Churchgoing is still widespread (though in decline), but the churches themselves are neutered and better described as Churchian rather than Christian.

    HIV is fortunately not common. Partly this is due to the efficiency of American capitalism. Drugstores sell needles, and white proles have enough foresight to purchase them for their habit.

    Cultural factors are of course dominant in explaining their deterioration, but economic factors play a role as well.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    The people of the Donbass are presumably much smarter than the people of Detroit, no? I mean, I suspect that the average IQ of the Donbass is something like 95 while it might be as low as 80 in Detroit (if Detroit is comparable to Baltimore, which has an average IQ of around 80).
  141. AP says:
    @Beckow
    For god's sake don't always compare apples and oranges. Business revenue and how it is allocated is only a subset of GNP. And the idea that all of R&D/IT (let's say 13%) would be outsourced by companies to Ukraine is preposterous.

    You similarly mixed in railroad tunnels and trains with business logistics - they are not the same. If a business wants to move a product it needs freeways or good roads, easy to cross borders and not the nightmare backups currently on the Ukraine borders. In Slovakia a freeway ends in Kosice - it is hours on bad country roads from there to reach Ukraine. And in Ukraine it connects to even a worse 2-way highway. This is a logistics nightmare and no business wants to deal with it. There is no current plan to extend the freeway - it would be very expensive, the area is underdeveloped, and frankly it has no benefit for Slovakia. So who is going to build that freeway connecting to Ukraine? And when? 25-30 years from now?

    Yes, people can carry baggage on slow trains or buses, great. Or they can answer phones in Lviv. You are not going to build an economy integrated with EU supply chains with that. This is a multi-generational reorientation of the Ukraine economy towards west - it will take a huge amount of investment and there has to be a return on that investment. Right now it is spotty.

    What you have are Ukrainians migrating to work, and most get paid less and do the work that locals are not willing to do - some do very low-level stuff. You also have the energy supply chains reorienting from Ukraine towards Germany, Baltic and Turkey-Balkans. Companies are paying attention to that. Logistics and energy are behind most business decisions.

    My conclusion is that Ukraine is slipping further back and that the badly thought out 2014 treaty with EU has not worked. Yanukovitch was told by his experts that it will cost Ukraine more than it will gain (I think $100-200 billion more in costs). The losses have been bigger than gains. A stupid business or economic decision is still stupid even if it makes you emotionally happy ("we are going to Europe!!! mammamia..."). And don't again tell us about the happy cafes in Lviv, that's a detail, economies need more.

    You similarly mixed in railroad tunnels and trains with business logistics – they are not the same

    You stated that no railway tunnels were built and I showed that a large one was built that eliminated a major bottleneck and quadrupled the number of trains that send goods to the West.

    You said there were no highways in eastern Europe to the Ukrainian border but AK showed there was a large one in Poland. The Ukrainian side will have one completed on its side of the border within 1-2 years. This will help all of the new factories being built by western companies in Lviv oblast.

    In Slovakia a freeway ends in Kosice – it is hours on bad country roads from there to reach Ukraine…

    According to googlemap it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    I guess when you write something negative about Ukraine your estimates should be divided by two or so.

    There is no current plan to extend the freeway

    Actually an extension is planned and a tiny part is already under construction (green is completed, red is under construction, grey is planned):

    I do not know the timeline but presumably not 25 years.

    So you have a clear pattern of exaggeration when it comes to negative things about Ukraine. Congratulations, you are an intelligent person and correct with respect to many things, but you share the Ukrainian Derangement Syndrome with Sovoks and Russian nationalists.

    • Replies: @Beckow

    ...it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.
     
    Really? Maybe in the middle of the night, and that I would not recommend for a different reason. I drove it, it takes hours of heavy traffic on a 2-lane road. Then you hit 4-6 hours delay on the border. Most people prefer to park their cars and walk across. No business will ever send products on that road.

    The grey 'planned' lines in Slovakia means nothing - somebody drew a line on the map, but no plan, no funding. The green stuff has taken Slovakia the last 35 years to built. At this rate you can extrapolate how long will take for the rest. I think 25 years would be very optimistic. Let me point out that there is still no freeway to Poland - a lot more important and longer border.

    Trains are not freeways and don't work well in today's logistics business. How many times are you going to try to mix up trains and roads?

    Me thinks that it might be you who 'exaggerates'. You do like to project your own sins on the others. I am trying to be realistic, that is a gift - all feedback is a gift. Optimism has a place, but abandoning reality also has a huge cost.

  142. @reiner Tor
    As Donald Trump and other leaders in the West move to erect barriers to immigration, Japan is moving in the opposite direction.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-26/japan-has-a-new-guest-worker-program-just-don-t-call-it-an-immigration-policy

    Article from an alternate world?

  143. @Thorfinnsson
    The Holy Roman Empire (full title: Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation) was only finally dissolved in 1806.

    The German Confederation was created in 1815. The German Question, which was whether Austria or Prussia would dominate German affairs, then dominated inter-German politics under Prussian arms answered the question at Koeniggraetz.

    Austria was so obviously German that the victors in both World Wars found it necessary to forbid Anschluss in the Treaty of Versailles and the Austrian State Treaty. In the interwar period the independent state of Austria was formally named "German Austria".

    In the interwar period the independent state of Austria was formally named “German Austria”.

    Strictly speaking I guess this is technically correct, although it is my understanding that the Deutschösterreich ceased to exist with the signing of the Treaty of Saint-Germain in 1919.

  144. @AP

    I get the impression that AP denigrates the East as being more socially and culturally degenerate than the West. Seems to me like the Donets Basin has some of the social pathologies common in other decaying heavy industrial regions globally like the Rustbelt, Ruhr Area, Midlands, Manchuria, etc.
     
    I've lived int he American Rustbelt. Rustbelt people are decent, often church-going, Polish or Irish proles from places like Cleveland or Buffalo or Pittsburgh,who might drink or brawl sometimes but are good people. Donbas was thoroughly Sovietized. Its the abortion capital of the world, fatherless child capital of Ukraine, and the HIV capital of the white world. To the extent it is like the Rust Belt, it is like inner city Detroit.

    I live in the American rustbelt.

    The white American proletariat is undergoing negrization.

    Family structure is collapsing. Abortion is not widespread. But single motherhood, bastardy, long-term cohabitation, and blended families are. Fatherlessness proper is fortunately not common, as most children born in these chaotic family structures have at least some involvement of their fathers (who are often functionally enslaved by the child support system).

    Where “diversity” exists, miscegenation also exists. Couplings and reproduction with lesser races like negros, mestizos, and filipinos are common.

    Drug abuse is rife and growing. Unfortunately, very serious and dangerous drugs like methamphetamines, heroin, and “bath salts” are increasingly common even though their possession is a felony.

    Tattoos (including facial tattoos), consumption of negro “music” like hip-hop and rap, and usage of negro vernacular is widespread. The term “baby daddy” for instance is employed without irony.

    Churchgoing is still widespread (though in decline), but the churches themselves are neutered and better described as Churchian rather than Christian.

    HIV is fortunately not common. Partly this is due to the efficiency of American capitalism. Drugstores sell needles, and white proles have enough foresight to purchase them for their habit.

    Cultural factors are of course dominant in explaining their deterioration, but economic factors play a role as well.

  145. According to Instagram, this idiot drug addict is sadly the daughter of Brodsky.

    People try to write to her, but she cannot understand Russian.

    Evidence against heredity of genius and IQ. Is it a counter-example to heritability of IQ, or is it victim of lead poisoning?

    Father is the famous poet to read at school in the 10th grade .

    But the daughter of a genius, cannot understand Russian, and can not write English correctly.

    People try to write to her and she does not respond.

    Everything about her instagram, indicates an “IQ test score result” of about 80.

    Same face as her brilliant father of his youth.
    But strangely, brain completely removed

    View this post on Instagram

    Catwoman after a run in with Batman @pac3mak3r

    A post shared by Anna Brodskaya (@foxsinatra) on

    Brodsky’s family in Russia seem normal and adequate.

    So alternatively an example of how Western culture destroys the brains of people who emigrate there, at least by the second generation.

    Brodsky’s grandchildren in Russia look like normal people – according to Instagram is his grandaughter from Saint Petersburg (from his first marriage before he emigrated), who appears normal.

    View this post on Instagram

    🍁 #goldenautumn

    A post shared by Pelageya Basmanova (@p_bsmnva) on

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Epigon
    Why did you equate writing poetry with being a genius, or having a high IQ?

    That is outright bizarre.

    Furthermore, poetry is decidedly pretentious, overrated pozz incarnate. I suspect the fad originated with well-off people doing nothing but needing an extra activity to feel special and unique, apart from commoners.

    On the topic of the stupid bimbo - her father died when she wasn’t even 3 - so she probably can’t remember him, his Russian language, couldn’t get any Russian identity - and most importantly - GREW UP WITHOUT A FATHER, which nowadays inevitably leads to becoming a stupid, vapid, promiscuous, lazy and/or shallow cunt.
    , @DFH
    She has an odd-looking bottom; might just be the perspective though
    , @AquariusAnon
    dat ass
    , @Toronto Russian

    Evidence against heredity of genius and IQ. Is it a counter-example to heritability of IQ, or is it victim of lead poisoning?
     
    My take:

    1. Genes are recombined randomly at conception.

    2. Very high intelligence may be a freakish abnormality like height over 2 metres or oversized eyes (too much of a good thing...)

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BuGLfOLFJEj/?utm_source=ig_web_button_native_share

    Geniuses are either too weird/uninterested to reproduce (Leonardo da Vinci, Newton, Tesla, Grigory Perelman...) or have more normal and thus less intelligent children.

    3. Heirs of celebrities have little stimulus to work hard on developing their talents. Why bother if money's falling on you from the sky? Some do, like Christopher Tolkien or Liza Minnelli, others don't. The raw ability might be there, but unused.
  146. @Thorfinnsson
    Officially the Pakistani government did not help us find OBL and the raid was a surprise to Pakistan.

    Unofficially I don't believe anything about that ridiculous story. OBL conveniently buried at sea (after revealing his pornography collection) followed by the entire SEAL team tragically dying in a helicopter crash. Right.

    Agree. OBL had been in Pakistan for long time. If the Pakistani authorities didn’t know about this for much of that period, then how good is their Intel value to the West? Pakistan took offense to the US government act on OBL in Pakistani territory. Obviously, the US only trusts Pakistan up to a point.

    A matter that leads to one school of thought, suggesting an inner Pakistani conflict involving those more sympathetic to the likes of OBL. That very mindset explains why India launched a recent strike into Pakistani held territory. The Indians have noted that their previously submitted proof of terrorism in Pakistan/Pakistani held territory has been second guessed by the Pakistani government. Hence, India took a kind of Israeli option.

  147. Hi Anatoly,

    I’ve tried commenting on your blogs with the handle “Bao Jiankang” and a fictious email, but the comments never get posted. Have I been banned?

    AK: No, you haven’t been banned. Why would I? This is very strange. My spam folder is empty. Could you try commenting again?

  148. @Thorfinnsson
    You're confusing nation and state.

    Austria is a German nation which lies outside of the German state.

    Though as AP pointed out there is shared political history beyond its seven years in Greater Germany.

    In addition to the Holy Roman Empire there was the Carolingian Empire, East Francia, the Kingdom of the Germans, and the German Confederation.

    When King Edward VII attempted to persuade the last Hapsburg Kaiser Franz Josef to abandon his alliance with the German Empire in favor of an understanding with the Entente, Franz Josef's simple reply was, "I am a German prince."

    Austria and Germany had been separate for centuries prior to 1938. Centuries ago, the HRE was a loose entity of which territory making up Germany and Austria were a part of. Perfectly aware that Austria and Germany (particularly Austria and southern Germany) share a good deal in common.

    There’s no great movement in Austria and Germany to get together as one. If presented, I sense it might receive a good deal of support.

    I steadfastly maintain that the analogy between Crimea reuniting with Russia being on par with the 1938 Anschluss is propagandistic babble – designed to take attention away from the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. At issue is anti-Russian hypocrisy.

    Russia doesn’t resemble Nazi Germany. Note that Nazis implemented the Anschluss before a referendum on the matter was to occur in Austria. As noted, over the course of the last few centuries, Crimea and Russia have a greater length of togetherness than Austria and Germany. In addition, Austria hasn’t been exposed to the kind of provocation which Crimea faced, following the coup against Ukraine’s democratically elected president.

  149. @Beckow
    Kiev could use better PR. They overdo the emotional, the devotion, and the rhetoric. They have a strong case and AP states it well. The problem is that some mistakes cannot be undone, not even with better PR.

    When you do a 'revolution', it is ok to attack the former elites. It is not ok to attack the massive power base of that former elite. Maidanistas slipped quickly into a de facto anti-east, anti-Russian sentiment. To say - as AP does - that Donbas can go if they want doesn't account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly and for millions a sense of hurt will set in. Kharkov or Odessa are the same as before 2014, they are Russian speaking and Russian feeling cities. That will re-assert itself.

    You don't create a unifying state idea by yelling at people. AP prefers to selectively get rid of the Russian leaning areas, but where would be the boundaries? If suffering in Kharkov is something to be happy about for the Galicians or Kiev, they will never have the Ukraine they want.

    Kiev could use better PR. They overdo the emotional, the devotion, and the rhetoric. They have a strong case and AP states it well. The problem is that some mistakes cannot be undone, not even with better PR.

    Such is the reality in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine. Gets back to a point someone (perhaps you) recently made about the Kiev regime preferring the image of itself as an important fortress for the West, instead of seeing the benefits of improving relations with Russia.

    This mindest is subject to change in terms of its influence. For now, it’s quite noticeable.

  150. On another topic, I was wondering if anyone here has calculated any realistic effect of electric car displacement on oil demand. Obviously this will affect the budget very negatively.

    I know there are articles being wirtten by Bloomberg, but has anyone tried to work out better.

    Last year, I calculated something more accurately, but I have forgotten what were the results.

    But if remember very approximated (this might be wrong from memory), for every 25 million electric cars introduced, might displace around 1 million barrels per day of oil demand.

    So currently there are only about 3 million electric automobiles in the world, so all the electric cars in the world today might displace 120,000 barrels of oil a day already today?

    But how many millions of electric cars will there be active by 2030? Here is not very clear. But the IEA is predicting wild numbers of 125 million electric cars total by 2030.

    This would be displacement of 5 million barrels of oil demand a day, other things equal (from the approximate figures above).

  151. The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

    • Replies: @Mikhail

    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

     

    The people of Crimea were reunited with Russia. A view favored by the majority of ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea (numbering around 20% of Crimea's population) as well as a noticeable number of Tatars (between 10% and 15% of that territory).

    Crimea had been part of the RSFSR before 1954. Thereafter, it was still affiliated with Russia as a part of the USSR. There's also the pre-Soviet period Crimean affiliation with Russia.

    For a considerable period before 1938, Germany and Austria were separate from each other. Prior to 1938, there was a clearly established Austrian national identity, with Germany uniting in 1871, a few years after the Austro-Prussian War. At that point in time, the notion of a Ukrainian nation separate from Russia wasn't popular.

    Whereas Austria has a centuries national identity of its own, Crimea (in comparison) has more of a regional view of itself. Irregardless of the recent (in historical terms) development of a Cypriot and Kosovar nations.

    I sense that many Greek Cypriots wouldn't mind linking with Greece. The flip side being the parallel view that Turkish Cypriots have regarding Turkey. Similarly in Kosovo, the Serbs there would like for that area to be part of Serbia. Likewise, I sense that the Albanians in Kosovo would favor linking with Albania.

    With all this in mind, it's IMO best to compare Crimea with the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. These territories involve present circumstances. Relative to Crimea, noting the Anschluss without any mention of Kosovo and northern Cyprus, serves as anti-Russian propagandist crock.

  152. @AP

    To say – as AP does – that Donbas can go if they want doesn’t account for the millions of other Russian-affiliated people all over Ukraine.
     
    Without Donbas and Crimea, the Russian-affiliated people in Ukraine are a minority and skewed towards the elderly. Kharkiv is the only remaining place in Ukraine where pro-Russians have clear majority support in the general population. But among people under 30, it is a 50/50 split.

    Deep emotions usually last 3-5 years. As Ukrainians sober up, the anti-Russia mania will seem silly
     
    Maidan was 5 years ago. No real resurgence in pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, no desire to come back to Russia.

    …Without Donbas and Crimea, the Russian-affiliated people in Ukraine are a minority

    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of ‘going to Europe‘ aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That’s Europe. If Ukraine is instead aspiring to join Turkey or Pakistan, I could see your glee that ‘Russians are only a minority‘. But with this kind of thinking Ukraine doesn’t belong in EU. We will call you on it.

    No real resurgence in pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, no desire to come back to Russia.

    Nobody was ‘in Russia’, so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity). They have been largely suppressed. My point is that when this anti-Russian mania blows over, they will still be there. And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don’t hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.

    • Replies: @AP

    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of ‘going to Europe‘ aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?
     
    They should have rights but they should not have veto powers over national policies.

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That’s Europe.
     
    Last I checked the Baltic Republics are in Europe. How is the situation of the Russian minority in Ukraine worse than in Baltics?

    And how about indigenous minorities in France?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breton_language#Education

    "In the late 20th century, the French government considered incorporating the independent Breton-language immersion schools (called Diwan) into the state education system. This action was blocked by the French Constitutional Council based on the 1994 amendment to the Constitution that establishes French as the language of the republic. Therefore, no other language may be used as a language of instruction in state schools. "

    Nobody was ‘in Russia’, so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity).
     
    It was about 40%-45% when Crimea and Donbas were part of Ukraine. It would have been 20% or so now based in pure demographics but due to anti-Russia backlash might be closer to 15%.

    Pro-Russian political parties have about 15%-20% support so this probably reflects the size of the Russian minority in Ukraine. It is smaller than the one in Estonia and Latvia, larger than the one in Lithuania.

    And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don’t hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.
     
    They'll just get absorbed, as the disappearing Russian minority in Lviv has been. I know a hardcore Ukrainian nationalist in Lviv who is 1/4 Russian - the Russian was a hero of Stalingrad who was stationed in Lviv after the war and married a local. Grand-kids are Banderists.

    I have part-Russian cousins in Lviv. None of my Galician relatives are Banderists but they think of themselves as Ukrainians.

    Same thing is happening in Kiev. Just as Ukrainians in Russia get assimilated, so do Russians in Ukraine. Not all of course, but enough. In Crimea or Donbas there were too many Russians for this to happen. These regions are gone, thank God.
  153. @AP

    You similarly mixed in railroad tunnels and trains with business logistics – they are not the same
     
    You stated that no railway tunnels were built and I showed that a large one was built that eliminated a major bottleneck and quadrupled the number of trains that send goods to the West.

    You said there were no highways in eastern Europe to the Ukrainian border but AK showed there was a large one in Poland. The Ukrainian side will have one completed on its side of the border within 1-2 years. This will help all of the new factories being built by western companies in Lviv oblast.

    In Slovakia a freeway ends in Kosice – it is hours on bad country roads from there to reach Ukraine...
     
    According to googlemap it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    I guess when you write something negative about Ukraine your estimates should be divided by two or so.

    There is no current plan to extend the freeway
     
    Actually an extension is planned and a tiny part is already under construction (green is completed, red is under construction, grey is planned):

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Highways_SK_map.svg/1920px-Highways_SK_map.svg.png

    I do not know the timeline but presumably not 25 years.

    So you have a clear pattern of exaggeration when it comes to negative things about Ukraine. Congratulations, you are an intelligent person and correct with respect to many things, but you share the Ukrainian Derangement Syndrome with Sovoks and Russian nationalists.

    …it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    Really? Maybe in the middle of the night, and that I would not recommend for a different reason. I drove it, it takes hours of heavy traffic on a 2-lane road. Then you hit 4-6 hours delay on the border. Most people prefer to park their cars and walk across. No business will ever send products on that road.

    The grey ‘planned’ lines in Slovakia means nothing – somebody drew a line on the map, but no plan, no funding. The green stuff has taken Slovakia the last 35 years to built. At this rate you can extrapolate how long will take for the rest. I think 25 years would be very optimistic. Let me point out that there is still no freeway to Poland – a lot more important and longer border.

    Trains are not freeways and don’t work well in today’s logistics business. How many times are you going to try to mix up trains and roads?

    Me thinks that it might be you who ‘exaggerates’. You do like to project your own sins on the others. I am trying to be realistic, that is a gift – all feedback is a gift. Optimism has a place, but abandoning reality also has a huge cost.

    • Replies: @AP

    …it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    Really? Maybe in the middle of the night, and that I would not recommend for a different reason. I drove it, it takes hours of heavy traffic on a 2-lane road. Then you hit 4-6 hours delay on the border. Most people prefer to park their cars and walk across. No business will ever send products on that road.
     
    I don't know when you drove it but google said 1 hour 33 minutes. I just checked again - 1 hour and 31 minutes. That's real-time driving conditions. Rt. 19. As I write this it is 11:14 PM in Slovakia, not "middle of the night."

    Here is a random travel website:

    https://www.rome2rio.com/s/Ko%C5%A1ice/Uzhhorod

    Drive: 1 hour 37 minutes.

    So you double down on the exaggeration.

    Me thinks that it might be you who ‘exaggerates’.
     
    The evidence of who exaggerates is right here. It is you, and your "hours".
  154. AP says:
    @Beckow

    ...Without Donbas and Crimea, the Russian-affiliated people in Ukraine are a minority
     
    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of 'going to Europe' aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That's Europe. If Ukraine is instead aspiring to join Turkey or Pakistan, I could see your glee that 'Russians are only a minority'. But with this kind of thinking Ukraine doesn't belong in EU. We will call you on it.

    No real resurgence in pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, no desire to come back to Russia.
     
    Nobody was 'in Russia', so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity). They have been largely suppressed. My point is that when this anti-Russian mania blows over, they will still be there. And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don't hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.

    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of ‘going to Europe‘ aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?

    They should have rights but they should not have veto powers over national policies.

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That’s Europe.

    Last I checked the Baltic Republics are in Europe. How is the situation of the Russian minority in Ukraine worse than in Baltics?

    And how about indigenous minorities in France?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breton_language#Education

    “In the late 20th century, the French government considered incorporating the independent Breton-language immersion schools (called Diwan) into the state education system. This action was blocked by the French Constitutional Council based on the 1994 amendment to the Constitution that establishes French as the language of the republic. Therefore, no other language may be used as a language of instruction in state schools. ”

    Nobody was ‘in Russia’, so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity).

    It was about 40%-45% when Crimea and Donbas were part of Ukraine. It would have been 20% or so now based in pure demographics but due to anti-Russia backlash might be closer to 15%.

    Pro-Russian political parties have about 15%-20% support so this probably reflects the size of the Russian minority in Ukraine. It is smaller than the one in Estonia and Latvia, larger than the one in Lithuania.

    And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don’t hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.

    They’ll just get absorbed, as the disappearing Russian minority in Lviv has been. I know a hardcore Ukrainian nationalist in Lviv who is 1/4 Russian – the Russian was a hero of Stalingrad who was stationed in Lviv after the war and married a local. Grand-kids are Banderists.

    I have part-Russian cousins in Lviv. None of my Galician relatives are Banderists but they think of themselves as Ukrainians.

    Same thing is happening in Kiev. Just as Ukrainians in Russia get assimilated, so do Russians in Ukraine. Not all of course, but enough. In Crimea or Donbas there were too many Russians for this to happen. These regions are gone, thank God.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    I would not use Baltics as an example: EU is not happy about it and the difference is that large part of the Russian minority there has been denied citizenship. They can't vote, Russians in Ukraine can.

    French can't be helped, after all they lately gave us that thing called Macron, it is just a cluster-f.ck.

    What you say about Lviv is probably true, same is happening with the small Ukrainian minority in eastern Slovakia and Czechia: they assimilate after 1-2 generations. But how about Kharkov or Odessa, 2nd and 3rd cities of Ukraine? Russian speakers have a majority there, how do you assimilate a majority? Your points are in general ad hoc and based on anecdotal data that fits your preconceptions. When people point out that it is more complex, you retreat into minutia and pointless arguments.

    It is unlikely that Ukraine will assimilate its Russian minority in our lifetimes. Those people are citizens and can vote. Any system has to account for it. I have also noticed that among almost all people from Ukraine - regardless of ethnic origin - speaking Russian is their preferred choice. How does that square with your theory that they are down to 5, or 15%, or that they are being assimilated?

    , @AquariusAnon
    AP MAH HOHOL BOI!!!!

    hohol boi soyboy. hohol soy. soy scare of big karlin dagestan muscle. karlin eat meat dumpling. karlin strong. karlin hadnsome karlin scary karlin sheremteyevo taxi mafia karlin meathead karlin horosho sport karlin punch soyboy. soyboy cri. hohol cri. hohol white flag. white flag kiev. LVOV JE DAGESTAN!!!!

  155. AP says:
    @Beckow

    ...it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.
     
    Really? Maybe in the middle of the night, and that I would not recommend for a different reason. I drove it, it takes hours of heavy traffic on a 2-lane road. Then you hit 4-6 hours delay on the border. Most people prefer to park their cars and walk across. No business will ever send products on that road.

    The grey 'planned' lines in Slovakia means nothing - somebody drew a line on the map, but no plan, no funding. The green stuff has taken Slovakia the last 35 years to built. At this rate you can extrapolate how long will take for the rest. I think 25 years would be very optimistic. Let me point out that there is still no freeway to Poland - a lot more important and longer border.

    Trains are not freeways and don't work well in today's logistics business. How many times are you going to try to mix up trains and roads?

    Me thinks that it might be you who 'exaggerates'. You do like to project your own sins on the others. I am trying to be realistic, that is a gift - all feedback is a gift. Optimism has a place, but abandoning reality also has a huge cost.

    …it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    Really? Maybe in the middle of the night, and that I would not recommend for a different reason. I drove it, it takes hours of heavy traffic on a 2-lane road. Then you hit 4-6 hours delay on the border. Most people prefer to park their cars and walk across. No business will ever send products on that road.

    I don’t know when you drove it but google said 1 hour 33 minutes. I just checked again – 1 hour and 31 minutes. That’s real-time driving conditions. Rt. 19. As I write this it is 11:14 PM in Slovakia, not “middle of the night.”

    Here is a random travel website:

    https://www.rome2rio.com/s/Ko%C5%A1ice/Uzhhorod

    Drive: 1 hour 37 minutes.

    So you double down on the exaggeration.

    Me thinks that it might be you who ‘exaggerates’.

    The evidence of who exaggerates is right here. It is you, and your “hours”.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    You really can't be helped. It is Sunday night 11 pm, are you seriously using it as a benchmark? Get over your petty infantile arguments. I assure you that no EU business would send regular trucks on that route - it takes hours for trucks, it is a 2-way, bad road with no passing going through small villages (2-3 hours), with heavy traffic and an impossible border crossing for trucks. Then you hit Subcarpathian Ukraine and the road is even worse. There are no plans to fix it, no money for it, it is way down in priority for Slovak gment.

    Do you want to argue nonsense or do you want to address the fact that there is no freeway - or even a 4-way fast road - connection from Ukraine towards Slovakia and then on to Austria, Czech R, Germany etc... I am not familiar with the Polish route, but I doubt it is much better. And you do end up in Poland.

    Ukraine lacks the logistics infrastructure to easily connect with EU. Period. That matters a lot more than a piece of paper that Kiev is waving around.

  156. @Hyperborean
    Did you read the essay I linked regarding the development of Danish nationalism? You should find the conclusion heartening.

    I rechecked your comments to me & can’t seem to find the link that you allude to? If it’s at this thread, just indicate what comment it’s within. Thanks.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    It's at comment 39, regarding the development of Danish nationalism and cultural independence.
  157. @Dmitry
    According to Instagram, this idiot drug addict is sadly the daughter of Brodsky.

    People try to write to her, but she cannot understand Russian.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/pPEAXVr0Tn

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BI7YHH2D6ZB


    Evidence against heredity of genius and IQ. Is it a counter-example to heritability of IQ, or is it victim of lead poisoning?

    Father is the famous poet to read at school in the 10th grade .

    But the daughter of a genius, cannot understand Russian, and can not write English correctly.

    People try to write to her and she does not respond.

    Everything about her instagram, indicates an "IQ test score result" of about 80.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BMlb7SejSK3/


    Same face as her brilliant father of his youth.
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a5/6d/ad/a56dad3b3f570b40f7bce46a67c60e27.jpg

    But strangely, brain completely removed

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BC8sP35L0fs/

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BEgTwWbr0W2/

    Brodsky's family in Russia seem normal and adequate.

    So alternatively an example of how Western culture destroys the brains of people who emigrate there, at least by the second generation.

    Brodsky's grandchildren in Russia look like normal people - according to Instagram is his grandaughter from Saint Petersburg (from his first marriage before he emigrated), who appears normal.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bo9g6wzjlR5/

    Why did you equate writing poetry with being a genius, or having a high IQ?

    That is outright bizarre.

    Furthermore, poetry is decidedly pretentious, overrated pozz incarnate. I suspect the fad originated with well-off people doing nothing but needing an extra activity to feel special and unique, apart from commoners.

    On the topic of the stupid bimbo – her father died when she wasn’t even 3 – so she probably can’t remember him, his Russian language, couldn’t get any Russian identity – and most importantly – GREW UP WITHOUT A FATHER, which nowadays inevitably leads to becoming a stupid, vapid, promiscuous, lazy and/or shallow cunt.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Sure you can reject literature (and say only engineers are valuable).

    But from any psychometric sense, Brodsky was far more intelligent person, than average person of the population. And, he was also extremely talented, hard working, charismatic, etc.

    While his daughter, seems less intelligent than average.

    Her face is identical to her father's, so it's even more fucking weird that she is just stupid.

    She has difficulty writing basic English and does not speak Russian, while her father is famous for how easily he writes in different languages.

    It's a depressing anti-natalism. The child is physical embodiment of the father (with almost his face), but with none of his value.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQtBwY6xP5w

  158. @Dmitry
    According to Instagram, this idiot drug addict is sadly the daughter of Brodsky.

    People try to write to her, but she cannot understand Russian.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/pPEAXVr0Tn

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BI7YHH2D6ZB


    Evidence against heredity of genius and IQ. Is it a counter-example to heritability of IQ, or is it victim of lead poisoning?

    Father is the famous poet to read at school in the 10th grade .

    But the daughter of a genius, cannot understand Russian, and can not write English correctly.

    People try to write to her and she does not respond.

    Everything about her instagram, indicates an "IQ test score result" of about 80.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BMlb7SejSK3/


    Same face as her brilliant father of his youth.
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a5/6d/ad/a56dad3b3f570b40f7bce46a67c60e27.jpg

    But strangely, brain completely removed

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BC8sP35L0fs/

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BEgTwWbr0W2/

    Brodsky's family in Russia seem normal and adequate.

    So alternatively an example of how Western culture destroys the brains of people who emigrate there, at least by the second generation.

    Brodsky's grandchildren in Russia look like normal people - according to Instagram is his grandaughter from Saint Petersburg (from his first marriage before he emigrated), who appears normal.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bo9g6wzjlR5/

    She has an odd-looking bottom; might just be the perspective though

  159. HRE stopped being a state (albeit a loose one, even in feudal terms) with the deposition of Frederick II.

    Following Emperors were not even a shadow of the likes of Barbarossa or Henry IV in the amount of power and influence they wielded in the realm.

    Really, how can you claim the HRE being a single state in modern sense when it was the site of constant conflict between noble families, struggle for inheritance, elections (elective monarchies and empires are a joke – as history has demonstrably shown – I am looking at you Bohemia, and especially Poland/PLC), kings and anti-kings, and appalingly brutal and bloody wars such as Hussite wars, Protestant wars, 30-year war, wars for Silesia and Austrian succession? The Protestant Germans despised Catholics and vice versa – wars inside HRE were probably most barbarous in terms of conduct, atrocities and casualty scale.

    Kingdom of Germany in HRE actually didn’t include present-day Austria and Brandenburg because Slavs weren’t assimilated yet.

    Regarding Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation, you might want to do a bit of a research on their border delimitations and ratified agreements among them, and other countries.

  160. @Anatoly Karlin
    The unlikeliness of it is funny, that this blog amalgamates so many unusual people is funny.

    Funny or not, I think that there’s something really good to be learned from you two. How do you do it?

    Imaginary conversation netween AK & AP:

    AK: Ukraine would be better off within Russia’s political orbit, after all we have so much in common and both have our roots in Kyivan Rus.

    AP: Why that may be true to some extent, don’t forget that large parts of Ukraine have had incredibly long periods of time developing under the umbrella of Western states, that has left its indelible imprint on the Ukrainian psyche differentiating it markedly from its neighbor to the north. Also, climate and Russia’s inherent imperial quest has not always boded well for Ukrainians.

    AK: But you have to admit that Russia’s imperial nature was to a great extent the creative endeavor of both the Great Russians and the Little Russians too. Look at how many Little Russians shared in the bounty of imperial greatness?

    AP: Yes perhaps, but at what price? Sure, hundreds of Little Russians did well for themselves in the Russian north, but they all, to a greater or lesser extent had to trade in their Ukrainian soul for a Russian one, something that millions of Ukrainians today are not willing to do.

    Etc; etc; etc;….

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Epigon
    A couple of remarks, which good Doctor and Anatoly would be aware of:

    1. Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.

    2. Habsburg rule in Galicia-Volhynia would be that period of Western rule in Ukraine - but it was precisely that rule which set Ukrainians on a crash course with Poles and Russians

    3. Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus

    4. Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria. Humanity would benefit in the long run (no Angloatlanticism, Anglojewing, Bolshevism, Trotskysm), but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.

    Ukrainians should count themselves lucky. The decisive push for their nationhood came from Bolsheviks, who also gave them their national martyrdom/statefounding myth (Holodomor), and whom they despise at present.

  161. @Mr. Hack
    Funny or not, I think that there's something really good to be learned from you two. How do you do it?

    Imaginary conversation netween AK & AP:

    AK: Ukraine would be better off within Russia's political orbit, after all we have so much in common and both have our roots in Kyivan Rus.

    AP: Why that may be true to some extent, don't forget that large parts of Ukraine have had incredibly long periods of time developing under the umbrella of Western states, that has left its indelible imprint on the Ukrainian psyche differentiating it markedly from its neighbor to the north. Also, climate and Russia's inherent imperial quest has not always boded well for Ukrainians.

    AK: But you have to admit that Russia's imperial nature was to a great extent the creative endeavor of both the Great Russians and the Little Russians too. Look at how many Little Russians shared in the bounty of imperial greatness?

    AP: Yes perhaps, but at what price? Sure, hundreds of Little Russians did well for themselves in the Russian north, but they all, to a greater or lesser extent had to trade in their Ukrainian soul for a Russian one, something that millions of Ukrainians today are not willing to do.

    Etc; etc; etc;....

    A couple of remarks, which good Doctor and Anatoly would be aware of:

    1. Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.

    2. Habsburg rule in Galicia-Volhynia would be that period of Western rule in Ukraine – but it was precisely that rule which set Ukrainians on a crash course with Poles and Russians

    3. Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus

    4. Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria. Humanity would benefit in the long run (no Angloatlanticism, Anglojewing, Bolshevism, Trotskysm), but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.

    Ukrainians should count themselves lucky. The decisive push for their nationhood came from Bolsheviks, who also gave them their national martyrdom/statefounding myth (Holodomor), and whom they despise at present.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack

    there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.
     
    Tell me more, this actually sounds interesting...

    Ukrainians should count themselves lucky. The decisive push for their nationhood came from Bolsheviks, who also gave them their national martyrdom/statefounding myth (Holodomor), and whom they despise at present.
     
    This doesn't make any sense and is a hallmark feature of crazy sovok BS about Ukraine and Ukrainians. Somebody like you should be able to do better than this (try to be more original)! :-(
    , @AP

    Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.
     
    What a strange idea. Baroque architecture, Jesuit schools, use of Latin, Magdeburg rights for cities - but not Western?

    The "Latifundia" agricultural system was typical of Spain and southern Italy as well as Poland-Lithuania. Spain and Italy are not Western either?

    Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus
     
    In 1910 eastern Galicia had higher literacy and higher per capita GDP than did Russia.

    In the 1917 elections about 70% of people in Ukraine's core governates (Kiev, Poltava, Volhynia, Chernihiv) voted for Ukrainian nationalistic parties. These areas correspond to "Orange Ukraine." Even in so-called Novorossiya it was around 50% outside of Crimea and the city of Odessa. I don't think any substantial number of Belarusians did this. So already the situations were quite different.

    The best scenario for pro-Russians, if Bolsheviks were defeated, would be that Russian Ukraine would be like Catalonia. Not that it would disappear.

    Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria.
     
    Nonsnse. Because genocide wasn't on the table the number of Ukrainians was too large to disappear. Germans were going to turn Crimea into a German summer retreat but Ukraine would just be a large and populous puppet state in Germany's orbit. This would have been far better for Ukraine than was the Soviet nightmare.

    but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.
     
    Since Russia would still exist and still be a substantial power, there would always be a need for an allied Spain-sized country in this neighborhood.
  162. @AP

    …it is 1 hour 33 minutes by car from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    Really? Maybe in the middle of the night, and that I would not recommend for a different reason. I drove it, it takes hours of heavy traffic on a 2-lane road. Then you hit 4-6 hours delay on the border. Most people prefer to park their cars and walk across. No business will ever send products on that road.
     
    I don't know when you drove it but google said 1 hour 33 minutes. I just checked again - 1 hour and 31 minutes. That's real-time driving conditions. Rt. 19. As I write this it is 11:14 PM in Slovakia, not "middle of the night."

    Here is a random travel website:

    https://www.rome2rio.com/s/Ko%C5%A1ice/Uzhhorod

    Drive: 1 hour 37 minutes.

    So you double down on the exaggeration.

    Me thinks that it might be you who ‘exaggerates’.
     
    The evidence of who exaggerates is right here. It is you, and your "hours".

    You really can’t be helped. It is Sunday night 11 pm, are you seriously using it as a benchmark? Get over your petty infantile arguments. I assure you that no EU business would send regular trucks on that route – it takes hours for trucks, it is a 2-way, bad road with no passing going through small villages (2-3 hours), with heavy traffic and an impossible border crossing for trucks. Then you hit Subcarpathian Ukraine and the road is even worse. There are no plans to fix it, no money for it, it is way down in priority for Slovak gment.

    Do you want to argue nonsense or do you want to address the fact that there is no freeway – or even a 4-way fast road – connection from Ukraine towards Slovakia and then on to Austria, Czech R, Germany etc… I am not familiar with the Polish route, but I doubt it is much better. And you do end up in Poland.

    Ukraine lacks the logistics infrastructure to easily connect with EU. Period. That matters a lot more than a piece of paper that Kiev is waving around.

    • Replies: @AP

    You really can’t be helped. It is Sunday night 11 pm, are you seriously using it as a benchmark? Get over your petty infantile arguments.
     
    My older post was from the middle of the day. I'll check tomorrow also :-)

    Do you want to argue nonsense or do you want to address the fact that there is no freeway – or even a 4-way fast road – connection from Ukraine towards Slovakia and then on to Austria, Czech R, Germany etc…
     
    There is a gap with only a 2 lane road from Uzhhorod to Kosice that takes about 1.5 hours to drive on a Sunday according to googlemap and some travel website. You assert it takes "hours" to drive.

    The 4-lane highway begins at Kosice.

    Condition of roads across the Carpathians is less relevant, because traffic from areas north of the Carpathians such as Lviv goes through Poland, which does have a 4 lane highway up to the Ukrainian border. Lviv to Warsaw (400 km) is currently 5 hours 42 minutes. Lviv to Berlin is 9 hours 37 minutes. Kosice, 70 km closer to Berlin than Lviv, takes 9 hours 27 minutes.

    As I write, Budapest to Uzhhorod (330 km) is 3 hours 41 minutes. Average speed 88 km/hour.
    Budapest to Kosice (260 km) is 3 hours 25 minutes. Average speed about 74 km/hour.

    Clearly eastern Slovakia is less ready for European integration than is Galicia :-)
  163. @Mr. Hack
    I rechecked your comments to me & can't seem to find the link that you allude to? If it's at this thread, just indicate what comment it's within. Thanks.

    It’s at comment 39, regarding the development of Danish nationalism and cultural independence.

    • Replies: @AP
    Interesting and a good read. Similar to Czechs and German. It is very likely that if all of Ukraine had remained in Poland a similar process would have occurred there as well.
  164. @Epigon
    Why did you equate writing poetry with being a genius, or having a high IQ?

    That is outright bizarre.

    Furthermore, poetry is decidedly pretentious, overrated pozz incarnate. I suspect the fad originated with well-off people doing nothing but needing an extra activity to feel special and unique, apart from commoners.

    On the topic of the stupid bimbo - her father died when she wasn’t even 3 - so she probably can’t remember him, his Russian language, couldn’t get any Russian identity - and most importantly - GREW UP WITHOUT A FATHER, which nowadays inevitably leads to becoming a stupid, vapid, promiscuous, lazy and/or shallow cunt.

    Sure you can reject literature (and say only engineers are valuable).

    But from any psychometric sense, Brodsky was far more intelligent person, than average person of the population. And, he was also extremely talented, hard working, charismatic, etc.

    While his daughter, seems less intelligent than average.

    Her face is identical to her father’s, so it’s even more fucking weird that she is just stupid.

    She has difficulty writing basic English and does not speak Russian, while her father is famous for how easily he writes in different languages.

    It’s a depressing anti-natalism. The child is physical embodiment of the father (with almost his face), but with none of his value.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    I replied to you in the other thread:


    In the cited text, it looks like he is trying to discuss the implications of the assumptions. This is objective or logical thought. It is refreshing to read.
     
    But the usefulness of logic also depends on the worth of what those assumptions are based on in the first place.

    From a logical perspective, the corpses of deceased people, who after all are unable to appreciate the gesture of a burial, are better off being used as fertiliser and rendered down for fat, which can be used to manufacture nitroglycerine, candles, lubricants, etc.

    Yet we usually spend a lot of time, effort and money to provide people with a grave and sometimes even elaborate monuments with angel figures et al and keep the churchyards maintained and well kept for years and decades on end.

    We do this out of a sense of sacrality even though this is economically unpractical.

    As humans treasure different things, certain parts of morality will be subjective and non-universal.

    Unintelligent people react, and always have reacted, with hostility to logic – but to translate it to terms practical people can understand: if it wasn’t for men who enjoy thinking in logically consistent ways, we would not be writing on a computer.
     
    Didn’t von Neumann advocate an American nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union?

    If one wishes to evaluate this proposal, one needs a moral foundation, that is to say what values and ideas one prioritises above other values and ideas, before logic can be applied.

    I believe it is better to have a clear view of what one’s moral foundation so that one is swayed by conscious biases rather than unconscious biases.

    But as I stated, I don’t believe these questions can avoided, at least not by Anglo-Saxons and Europeans, so there is a need to develop coherent answers to these questions.
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/animals/#comment-3071166
  165. @AP

    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of ‘going to Europe‘ aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?
     
    They should have rights but they should not have veto powers over national policies.

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That’s Europe.
     
    Last I checked the Baltic Republics are in Europe. How is the situation of the Russian minority in Ukraine worse than in Baltics?

    And how about indigenous minorities in France?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breton_language#Education

    "In the late 20th century, the French government considered incorporating the independent Breton-language immersion schools (called Diwan) into the state education system. This action was blocked by the French Constitutional Council based on the 1994 amendment to the Constitution that establishes French as the language of the republic. Therefore, no other language may be used as a language of instruction in state schools. "

    Nobody was ‘in Russia’, so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity).
     
    It was about 40%-45% when Crimea and Donbas were part of Ukraine. It would have been 20% or so now based in pure demographics but due to anti-Russia backlash might be closer to 15%.

    Pro-Russian political parties have about 15%-20% support so this probably reflects the size of the Russian minority in Ukraine. It is smaller than the one in Estonia and Latvia, larger than the one in Lithuania.

    And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don’t hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.
     
    They'll just get absorbed, as the disappearing Russian minority in Lviv has been. I know a hardcore Ukrainian nationalist in Lviv who is 1/4 Russian - the Russian was a hero of Stalingrad who was stationed in Lviv after the war and married a local. Grand-kids are Banderists.

    I have part-Russian cousins in Lviv. None of my Galician relatives are Banderists but they think of themselves as Ukrainians.

    Same thing is happening in Kiev. Just as Ukrainians in Russia get assimilated, so do Russians in Ukraine. Not all of course, but enough. In Crimea or Donbas there were too many Russians for this to happen. These regions are gone, thank God.

    I would not use Baltics as an example: EU is not happy about it and the difference is that large part of the Russian minority there has been denied citizenship. They can’t vote, Russians in Ukraine can.

    French can’t be helped, after all they lately gave us that thing called Macron, it is just a cluster-f.ck.

    What you say about Lviv is probably true, same is happening with the small Ukrainian minority in eastern Slovakia and Czechia: they assimilate after 1-2 generations. But how about Kharkov or Odessa, 2nd and 3rd cities of Ukraine? Russian speakers have a majority there, how do you assimilate a majority? Your points are in general ad hoc and based on anecdotal data that fits your preconceptions. When people point out that it is more complex, you retreat into minutia and pointless arguments.

    It is unlikely that Ukraine will assimilate its Russian minority in our lifetimes. Those people are citizens and can vote. Any system has to account for it. I have also noticed that among almost all people from Ukraine – regardless of ethnic origin – speaking Russian is their preferred choice. How does that square with your theory that they are down to 5, or 15%, or that they are being assimilated?

    • Replies: @AP

    I would not use Baltics as an example: EU is not happy about it and the difference is that large part of the Russian minority there has been denied citizenship.
     
    Well, so EU nations can deny citizenship to ethnic groups living in their countries. Thanks for pointing that out.

    French can’t be helped, after all they lately gave us that thing called Macron,
     
    Nevertheless, this is a a large core EU member who has one state language and doesn't allow minorities to use any other language in state schools.

    So there is nothing non-European about Ukraine's legal language situation, despite whining about it not being European values.

    But how about Kharkov or Odessa, 2nd and 3rd cities of Ukraine? Russian speakers have a majority there, how do you assimilate a majority?
     
    They won't assimilate linguistically but will in terms of ideology and culture.

    I have also noticed that among almost all people from Ukraine – regardless of ethnic origin – speaking Russian is their preferred choice.
     
    Again with your exaggeration. Prior to the loss of Crimea and Donbas Ukraine was about 40% Ukrainian speaking, 45% Russian speaking. This is obvious to anyone who has traveled around the country. But you notice what is convenient for you.

    Here is the study:

    http://www.kiis.com.ua/materials/articles_HVE/16_linguaethnical.pdf

    How does that square with your theory that they are down to 5, or 15%, or that they are being assimilated?
     
    You mix language with ethnicity or national identity.

    You do realize that just as many if not most Irish nationalists are English speaking, many Ukrainians speak Russian. Kiev is about 90% Russian speaking, but 82% Ukrainian and 13% Russian. While the half-Russian kids in Lviv speak Ukrainian as their first language, the ones in Kiev speak Russian, but both tend to adopt a Ukrainian identity - the ones in Lviv become Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians and the ones in Kiev become Russian-speaking Ukrainians.* So in these places after the older people pass on younger generations have a smaller % of Russians.

    Kharkiv is 63% Ukrainian and 33% Russian. Assimilation may be slower here.

    In Crimea, Ukrainians were outnumbered and in Donbas the population was about equal.

    * A caveat here. I am discussing preferred language of communication. Most of these people are able to speak Ukrainian fine.
  166. AP says:
    @Beckow
    You really can't be helped. It is Sunday night 11 pm, are you seriously using it as a benchmark? Get over your petty infantile arguments. I assure you that no EU business would send regular trucks on that route - it takes hours for trucks, it is a 2-way, bad road with no passing going through small villages (2-3 hours), with heavy traffic and an impossible border crossing for trucks. Then you hit Subcarpathian Ukraine and the road is even worse. There are no plans to fix it, no money for it, it is way down in priority for Slovak gment.

    Do you want to argue nonsense or do you want to address the fact that there is no freeway - or even a 4-way fast road - connection from Ukraine towards Slovakia and then on to Austria, Czech R, Germany etc... I am not familiar with the Polish route, but I doubt it is much better. And you do end up in Poland.

    Ukraine lacks the logistics infrastructure to easily connect with EU. Period. That matters a lot more than a piece of paper that Kiev is waving around.

    You really can’t be helped. It is Sunday night 11 pm, are you seriously using it as a benchmark? Get over your petty infantile arguments.

    My older post was from the middle of the day. I’ll check tomorrow also 🙂

    Do you want to argue nonsense or do you want to address the fact that there is no freeway – or even a 4-way fast road – connection from Ukraine towards Slovakia and then on to Austria, Czech R, Germany etc…

    There is a gap with only a 2 lane road from Uzhhorod to Kosice that takes about 1.5 hours to drive on a Sunday according to googlemap and some travel website. You assert it takes “hours” to drive.

    The 4-lane highway begins at Kosice.

    Condition of roads across the Carpathians is less relevant, because traffic from areas north of the Carpathians such as Lviv goes through Poland, which does have a 4 lane highway up to the Ukrainian border. Lviv to Warsaw (400 km) is currently 5 hours 42 minutes. Lviv to Berlin is 9 hours 37 minutes. Kosice, 70 km closer to Berlin than Lviv, takes 9 hours 27 minutes.

    As I write, Budapest to Uzhhorod (330 km) is 3 hours 41 minutes. Average speed 88 km/hour.
    Budapest to Kosice (260 km) is 3 hours 25 minutes. Average speed about 74 km/hour.

    Clearly eastern Slovakia is less ready for European integration than is Galicia 🙂

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Right now it’s 1hr40min, it’s 7:35 AM.
    , @Beckow
    Let's just agree "there is a gap" there somewhere.

    One more point: without an efficient way to cross the Carpathians, you only get to the small Sub-carpathia region. And I wouldn't trust those damn Rusins and Hungarians living there, they might just secede to get to EU first. They switch ethnicities on a dime.


    "eastern Slovakia is less ready for European integration than is Galicia 🙂"
     
    Well, they are less ready for a lot of things. But it is a fascinating region, they know how to integrate in business, and women are stunning - no exaggeration there, one could spend hours just on that topic. Kosice was for a while the second city of the Hungarian kingdom. Then in 1945 it was were Czecho-Slovakia was re-established. They have been running it ever since...
  167. @Epigon
    A couple of remarks, which good Doctor and Anatoly would be aware of:

    1. Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.

    2. Habsburg rule in Galicia-Volhynia would be that period of Western rule in Ukraine - but it was precisely that rule which set Ukrainians on a crash course with Poles and Russians

    3. Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus

    4. Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria. Humanity would benefit in the long run (no Angloatlanticism, Anglojewing, Bolshevism, Trotskysm), but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.

    Ukrainians should count themselves lucky. The decisive push for their nationhood came from Bolsheviks, who also gave them their national martyrdom/statefounding myth (Holodomor), and whom they despise at present.

    there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.

    Tell me more, this actually sounds interesting…

    Ukrainians should count themselves lucky. The decisive push for their nationhood came from Bolsheviks, who also gave them their national martyrdom/statefounding myth (Holodomor), and whom they despise at present.

    This doesn’t make any sense and is a hallmark feature of crazy sovok BS about Ukraine and Ukrainians. Somebody like you should be able to do better than this (try to be more original)! 🙁

  168. @Dmitry
    Sure you can reject literature (and say only engineers are valuable).

    But from any psychometric sense, Brodsky was far more intelligent person, than average person of the population. And, he was also extremely talented, hard working, charismatic, etc.

    While his daughter, seems less intelligent than average.

    Her face is identical to her father's, so it's even more fucking weird that she is just stupid.

    She has difficulty writing basic English and does not speak Russian, while her father is famous for how easily he writes in different languages.

    It's a depressing anti-natalism. The child is physical embodiment of the father (with almost his face), but with none of his value.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQtBwY6xP5w

    I replied to you in the other thread:

    In the cited text, it looks like he is trying to discuss the implications of the assumptions. This is objective or logical thought. It is refreshing to read.

    But the usefulness of logic also depends on the worth of what those assumptions are based on in the first place.

    From a logical perspective, the corpses of deceased people, who after all are unable to appreciate the gesture of a burial, are better off being used as fertiliser and rendered down for fat, which can be used to manufacture nitroglycerine, candles, lubricants, etc.

    Yet we usually spend a lot of time, effort and money to provide people with a grave and sometimes even elaborate monuments with angel figures et al and keep the churchyards maintained and well kept for years and decades on end.

    We do this out of a sense of sacrality even though this is economically unpractical.

    As humans treasure different things, certain parts of morality will be subjective and non-universal.

    Unintelligent people react, and always have reacted, with hostility to logic – but to translate it to terms practical people can understand: if it wasn’t for men who enjoy thinking in logically consistent ways, we would not be writing on a computer.

    Didn’t von Neumann advocate an American nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union?

    If one wishes to evaluate this proposal, one needs a moral foundation, that is to say what values and ideas one prioritises above other values and ideas, before logic can be applied.

    I believe it is better to have a clear view of what one’s moral foundation so that one is swayed by conscious biases rather than unconscious biases.

    But as I stated, I don’t believe these questions can avoided, at least not by Anglo-Saxons and Europeans, so there is a need to develop coherent answers to these questions.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/animals/#comment-3071166

  169. AP says:
    @Beckow
    I would not use Baltics as an example: EU is not happy about it and the difference is that large part of the Russian minority there has been denied citizenship. They can't vote, Russians in Ukraine can.

    French can't be helped, after all they lately gave us that thing called Macron, it is just a cluster-f.ck.

    What you say about Lviv is probably true, same is happening with the small Ukrainian minority in eastern Slovakia and Czechia: they assimilate after 1-2 generations. But how about Kharkov or Odessa, 2nd and 3rd cities of Ukraine? Russian speakers have a majority there, how do you assimilate a majority? Your points are in general ad hoc and based on anecdotal data that fits your preconceptions. When people point out that it is more complex, you retreat into minutia and pointless arguments.

    It is unlikely that Ukraine will assimilate its Russian minority in our lifetimes. Those people are citizens and can vote. Any system has to account for it. I have also noticed that among almost all people from Ukraine - regardless of ethnic origin - speaking Russian is their preferred choice. How does that square with your theory that they are down to 5, or 15%, or that they are being assimilated?

    I would not use Baltics as an example: EU is not happy about it and the difference is that large part of the Russian minority there has been denied citizenship.

    Well, so EU nations can deny citizenship to ethnic groups living in their countries. Thanks for pointing that out.

    French can’t be helped, after all they lately gave us that thing called Macron,

    Nevertheless, this is a a large core EU member who has one state language and doesn’t allow minorities to use any other language in state schools.

    So there is nothing non-European about Ukraine’s legal language situation, despite whining about it not being European values.

    But how about Kharkov or Odessa, 2nd and 3rd cities of Ukraine? Russian speakers have a majority there, how do you assimilate a majority?

    They won’t assimilate linguistically but will in terms of ideology and culture.

    I have also noticed that among almost all people from Ukraine – regardless of ethnic origin – speaking Russian is their preferred choice.

    Again with your exaggeration. Prior to the loss of Crimea and Donbas Ukraine was about 40% Ukrainian speaking, 45% Russian speaking. This is obvious to anyone who has traveled around the country. But you notice what is convenient for you.

    Here is the study:

    http://www.kiis.com.ua/materials/articles_HVE/16_linguaethnical.pdf

    How does that square with your theory that they are down to 5, or 15%, or that they are being assimilated?

    You mix language with ethnicity or national identity.

    You do realize that just as many if not most Irish nationalists are English speaking, many Ukrainians speak Russian. Kiev is about 90% Russian speaking, but 82% Ukrainian and 13% Russian. While the half-Russian kids in Lviv speak Ukrainian as their first language, the ones in Kiev speak Russian, but both tend to adopt a Ukrainian identity – the ones in Lviv become Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians and the ones in Kiev become Russian-speaking Ukrainians.* So in these places after the older people pass on younger generations have a smaller % of Russians.

    Kharkiv is 63% Ukrainian and 33% Russian. Assimilation may be slower here.

    In Crimea, Ukrainians were outnumbered and in Donbas the population was about equal.

    * A caveat here. I am discussing preferred language of communication. Most of these people are able to speak Ukrainian fine.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
    On the EU values issue: it is easier to get away with it once a country is in EU, but applicants get a much harsher treatment.

    People from Ukraine I meet almost always prefer to speak with us in Russian. I am not sure how is that an 'exaggeration', it is what everyone in Central Europe can observe. I don't ask them about their 'ethnicity'.

    The analogy with Ireland and England is not a bad one, but is it going to play out that way? The relative standings are quite different, and most analogies tend be faulty. But you could be right over 1-2 generations.

    You ignore a simple fact that the nationalist Ukrainians are literally peeing into a hurricane. They are the weaker side locally, but they think that outside help will somehow balance it. Historically outside help dissipates over time and the local power equation re-emerges. Being in a de facto war with a much stronger enemy is a foolish strategy. Short of Russia's disintegrating, Russian interests will reappear with a vengeance. Germans know this - they have learned the hard way - so they play it safe (NS2).

    All the external help for Ukraine has already been done, there will be no more. It is now down to Kiev vs. Moscow. It is a an economic, political, demographic and military stalemate - and Russia is simply stronger. Absolutely the best option for Ukraine would be to let go off the east and south and merge with Poland - they would be in EU in no time. But it is also the stupid option. So they will slowly climb down from their nationalist high, sooner they do it, better deal they will get.

    People sentiment changes based on who they perceive as winning. You will see how quickly the 90% plus Russian-speakers hatred of Russia disappears once situation changes. People's attitudes are fickle, and they like to say what they think others want to hear. The current war-like attitudes are largely meaningless, they won't last.

  170. AP says:
    @Epigon
    A couple of remarks, which good Doctor and Anatoly would be aware of:

    1. Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.

    2. Habsburg rule in Galicia-Volhynia would be that period of Western rule in Ukraine - but it was precisely that rule which set Ukrainians on a crash course with Poles and Russians

    3. Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus

    4. Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria. Humanity would benefit in the long run (no Angloatlanticism, Anglojewing, Bolshevism, Trotskysm), but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.

    Ukrainians should count themselves lucky. The decisive push for their nationhood came from Bolsheviks, who also gave them their national martyrdom/statefounding myth (Holodomor), and whom they despise at present.

    Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.

    What a strange idea. Baroque architecture, Jesuit schools, use of Latin, Magdeburg rights for cities – but not Western?

    The “Latifundia” agricultural system was typical of Spain and southern Italy as well as Poland-Lithuania. Spain and Italy are not Western either?

    Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus

    In 1910 eastern Galicia had higher literacy and higher per capita GDP than did Russia.

    In the 1917 elections about 70% of people in Ukraine’s core governates (Kiev, Poltava, Volhynia, Chernihiv) voted for Ukrainian nationalistic parties. These areas correspond to “Orange Ukraine.” Even in so-called Novorossiya it was around 50% outside of Crimea and the city of Odessa. I don’t think any substantial number of Belarusians did this. So already the situations were quite different.

    The best scenario for pro-Russians, if Bolsheviks were defeated, would be that Russian Ukraine would be like Catalonia. Not that it would disappear.

    Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria.

    Nonsnse. Because genocide wasn’t on the table the number of Ukrainians was too large to disappear. Germans were going to turn Crimea into a German summer retreat but Ukraine would just be a large and populous puppet state in Germany’s orbit. This would have been far better for Ukraine than was the Soviet nightmare.

    but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.

    Since Russia would still exist and still be a substantial power, there would always be a need for an allied Spain-sized country in this neighborhood.

    • Replies: @Epigon
    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?

    What makes you think the Germans and Habsburgs would be in favour of it, and not in favour of a protectorate/vassal state/March?
  171. @Hyperborean
    It's at comment 39, regarding the development of Danish nationalism and cultural independence.

    Interesting and a good read. Similar to Czechs and German. It is very likely that if all of Ukraine had remained in Poland a similar process would have occurred there as well.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    What I find interesting is that at the same time period as Germany was culturally dominating Denmark, Denmark was culturally dominating Norway.
  172. @AP

    You really can’t be helped. It is Sunday night 11 pm, are you seriously using it as a benchmark? Get over your petty infantile arguments.
     
    My older post was from the middle of the day. I'll check tomorrow also :-)

    Do you want to argue nonsense or do you want to address the fact that there is no freeway – or even a 4-way fast road – connection from Ukraine towards Slovakia and then on to Austria, Czech R, Germany etc…
     
    There is a gap with only a 2 lane road from Uzhhorod to Kosice that takes about 1.5 hours to drive on a Sunday according to googlemap and some travel website. You assert it takes "hours" to drive.

    The 4-lane highway begins at Kosice.

    Condition of roads across the Carpathians is less relevant, because traffic from areas north of the Carpathians such as Lviv goes through Poland, which does have a 4 lane highway up to the Ukrainian border. Lviv to Warsaw (400 km) is currently 5 hours 42 minutes. Lviv to Berlin is 9 hours 37 minutes. Kosice, 70 km closer to Berlin than Lviv, takes 9 hours 27 minutes.

    As I write, Budapest to Uzhhorod (330 km) is 3 hours 41 minutes. Average speed 88 km/hour.
    Budapest to Kosice (260 km) is 3 hours 25 minutes. Average speed about 74 km/hour.

    Clearly eastern Slovakia is less ready for European integration than is Galicia :-)

    Right now it’s 1hr40min, it’s 7:35 AM.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    8:18 AM, 1hr39min.
  173. @reiner Tor
    Right now it’s 1hr40min, it’s 7:35 AM.

    8:18 AM, 1hr39min.

  174. @AP
    Interesting and a good read. Similar to Czechs and German. It is very likely that if all of Ukraine had remained in Poland a similar process would have occurred there as well.

    What I find interesting is that at the same time period as Germany was culturally dominating Denmark, Denmark was culturally dominating Norway.

  175. 9:19 AM, still 1hr39min.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Now that the topic of time measurement has been brought up.

    I decided to test your hypothesis that Utu and AaronB are the same person.

    Utu and AaronB both claim to reside in the USA. So when AaronB was saying that he was on vacation in (presumably South-East) Asia, I was checking what time they would both comment here and it seemed to match with the timezone they were claiming to be in at the time.

    If they were the same individual, this person would have rather "unusual hours" either way depending on which continent they were on at the time.

    The hypothesis can't be completely excluded, but it seems unlikelier than before.

    So while I can sometimes see why you would believe it based on their responses, I think Dmitry's joking "evil mirror" theory is more likely to be correct.

  176. @reiner Tor
    9:19 AM, still 1hr39min.

    Now that the topic of time measurement has been brought up.

    I decided to test your hypothesis that Utu and AaronB are the same person.

    Utu and AaronB both claim to reside in the USA. So when AaronB was saying that he was on vacation in (presumably South-East) Asia, I was checking what time they would both comment here and it seemed to match with the timezone they were claiming to be in at the time.

    If they were the same individual, this person would have rather “unusual hours” either way depending on which continent they were on at the time.

    The hypothesis can’t be completely excluded, but it seems unlikelier than before.

    So while I can sometimes see why you would believe it based on their responses, I think Dmitry’s joking “evil mirror” theory is more likely to be correct.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I have a very good proof:

    Both write silly things. If I lump them together, they just need one slot in my brain. Why use two slots for something useless when one slot is sufficient?
    , @AaronB
    East Asia, with a bit of SEA thrown in. And I barely visited this site till the end of that trip.
  177. @Thorfinnsson
    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany's acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren't "separate" up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

    The people of Crimea were reunited with Russia. A view favored by the majority of ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea (numbering around 20% of Crimea’s population) as well as a noticeable number of Tatars (between 10% and 15% of that territory).

    Crimea had been part of the RSFSR before 1954. Thereafter, it was still affiliated with Russia as a part of the USSR. There’s also the pre-Soviet period Crimean affiliation with Russia.

    For a considerable period before 1938, Germany and Austria were separate from each other. Prior to 1938, there was a clearly established Austrian national identity, with Germany uniting in 1871, a few years after the Austro-Prussian War. At that point in time, the notion of a Ukrainian nation separate from Russia wasn’t popular.

    Whereas Austria has a centuries national identity of its own, Crimea (in comparison) has more of a regional view of itself. Irregardless of the recent (in historical terms) development of a Cypriot and Kosovar nations.

    I sense that many Greek Cypriots wouldn’t mind linking with Greece. The flip side being the parallel view that Turkish Cypriots have regarding Turkey. Similarly in Kosovo, the Serbs there would like for that area to be part of Serbia. Likewise, I sense that the Albanians in Kosovo would favor linking with Albania.

    With all this in mind, it’s IMO best to compare Crimea with the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. These territories involve present circumstances. Relative to Crimea, noting the Anschluss without any mention of Kosovo and northern Cyprus, serves as anti-Russian propagandist crock.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    During the the Liberal Nationalist popular uprisings of 1848, there were three options presented: Prussia unifies Little Germany without Austria and under Prussian hegemony, Austria releases its Eastern regions and joins with Greater Germany or the "Empire of Seventy Millions" [All-Germany plus the Eastern Hapsburg lands] is formed.

    The short-lived German Empire of 1848-49, that failed because the Prussian king refused to "pick up a crown from the gutter", both included the Austrian Lands and elected an Austrian as Imperial Regent (Archduke Johann of Austria), which is unlikely to have happened unless Austria was seen as an integral part of Germany.

    As to Austria's exclusion from Germany, this was quite deliberate.

    From AJP Taylor's The Habsburg Monarchy 1809-1918:


    When the Linz radicals called on Germany for support, they confessed that the German Austrians had neither the strength nor the cultural superiority to maintain their monopoly in Austria. They assumed, too, that the German Austrians had voluntarily renounced the German national state, that Germany would come to their assistance at the first call, and that therefore they should be rewarded for not destroying the Habsburg Empire. These assumptions were false. The German Austrians had not renounced Germany; they had been deliberately excluded from Germany by Bismarck, and he had no intention of seconding their ambitions, still less of destroying
    Austria-Hungary. Bismarck feared Greater Germany, which would be beyond the power of the Prussian Junkers to master; and he feared, too, a blatant German hegemony in Europe, which would provoke a European coalition in resistance. The maintenance of an independent Austria-Hungary was the central point of Bismarck’s policy: independent, certainly, of Russia or of France, but independent, too, at any rate in appearance, of Germany. As a consequence, it was in his interest to minimise the German character of Austria-Hungary. After all, he knew that he could always assert German control if it were necessary. The Linz programme invited him to assert German control unnecessarily and was therefore without attraction.

    The German nationalists sensed their isolation, though they ascribed it to the subtlety of the Habsburg dynasty, not to the refusal of their hero Bismarck. While they continued to demand German supremacy in Austria, their day-to-day policy became resistance to Slav encroachments in their own national areas. One of their leaders expressed this policy: “In Czech Bohemia let them do as they like; in German Bohemia we shall do as we like. This was not at all the Linz programme; it was a denial of the unitary Austrian state, of which the Germans had been previously the great upholders.
     

    And as I noted before, as soon as the Empire collapsed after Great War, German-Austria quickly set out to unify with Germany before they were forbidden so by the imposition of the Treaty of Versailles.
    , @reiner Tor
    Austria was a German state. The Austrian foreign minister and de facto leader of the country was from another German province. The most famous Austrian composers often came from outside Austria, Beethoven, Brahms from elsewhere in Germany, Mozart and Haydn from areas which at the time didn’t belong to Austria.

    Its dialect (especially of the expanding educated classes) was pretty similar to other German dialects, and it never had a separate national identity. In the 1930s many Austrians didn’t want to join Germany because they didn’t want the totalitarian Nazi regime for themselves, it wasn’t a principled opposition to the eventual unification of the two countries.

    , @AquariusAnon
    Crimea is Turkey
    , @Thorfinnsson
    The Austrian national identity is a purely postwar phenomenon, and not a particularly strong one. The main anti-immigration Austrian "nationalist" political party refused to even display Austrian symbols at its gatherings until the 1990s.

    Kurt Schusnigg, the last prewar leader of independent Austria, wished to pose this question to Austrian voters in his intended plebiscite to prevent the Anschluss:

    Are you for a free, German, independent and social, Christian and united Austria, for peace and work, for the equality of all those who affirm themselves for the people and Fatherland?
     

    The very word Austria in German simply means "eastern realm".

    There was a considerable amount of Hapsburg patriotism in Austria, but this obviously was not the same thing as affirming a separate Austrian identity. Not all German in the empire were Hapsburg patriots (for instance, Adolf Hitler), and there was also Hapsburg patriotism in some of the non-German ethnic groups of the empire.

    Its early German history was somewhat comparable to Crimea. It was an eastern march of the German world that was invaded and colonized by Germans, just as Crimea was a southern march of the Russian world that was invaded and colonized by Russians.

    The Greeks, incidentally, have their own word for Anschluss: Enosis. This was very popular in Greece proper and in the Greek areas of Cyprus. The Greek dream of reunification was of course crushed by the Turkish invasion.

    Cyprus, incidentally, has never been part of any state calling itself Greece. If we consider the Byzantine Empire as a Greek state (they considered themselves Romans, though the oldest Greeks will still refer to themselves as Romans today) then it was last ruled from metropolitan Greece over eight centuries ago.

    I agree that the term Anschluss shouldn't be used in most discussions since it has negative associations and thus is intended to stoke Russophobia.

    Kosovo and Cyprus do seem like more relevant examples in that they are contemporary issues. Another one might be Taiwan, though the Taiwanese are supposedly undergoing ethnogenesis. The incorporation of Goa into the Republic of India could be an appropriate comparison since it's within living memory, Goa was not independent but controlled by another state (Portugal), and India isn't a fascist state.

  178. 10:48 AM, 1 hr 38 min.

  179. @Hyperborean
    Now that the topic of time measurement has been brought up.

    I decided to test your hypothesis that Utu and AaronB are the same person.

    Utu and AaronB both claim to reside in the USA. So when AaronB was saying that he was on vacation in (presumably South-East) Asia, I was checking what time they would both comment here and it seemed to match with the timezone they were claiming to be in at the time.

    If they were the same individual, this person would have rather "unusual hours" either way depending on which continent they were on at the time.

    The hypothesis can't be completely excluded, but it seems unlikelier than before.

    So while I can sometimes see why you would believe it based on their responses, I think Dmitry's joking "evil mirror" theory is more likely to be correct.

    I have a very good proof:

    Both write silly things. If I lump them together, they just need one slot in my brain. Why use two slots for something useless when one slot is sufficient?

    • LOL: Hyperborean
  180. @Mikhail

    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

     

    The people of Crimea were reunited with Russia. A view favored by the majority of ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea (numbering around 20% of Crimea's population) as well as a noticeable number of Tatars (between 10% and 15% of that territory).

    Crimea had been part of the RSFSR before 1954. Thereafter, it was still affiliated with Russia as a part of the USSR. There's also the pre-Soviet period Crimean affiliation with Russia.

    For a considerable period before 1938, Germany and Austria were separate from each other. Prior to 1938, there was a clearly established Austrian national identity, with Germany uniting in 1871, a few years after the Austro-Prussian War. At that point in time, the notion of a Ukrainian nation separate from Russia wasn't popular.

    Whereas Austria has a centuries national identity of its own, Crimea (in comparison) has more of a regional view of itself. Irregardless of the recent (in historical terms) development of a Cypriot and Kosovar nations.

    I sense that many Greek Cypriots wouldn't mind linking with Greece. The flip side being the parallel view that Turkish Cypriots have regarding Turkey. Similarly in Kosovo, the Serbs there would like for that area to be part of Serbia. Likewise, I sense that the Albanians in Kosovo would favor linking with Albania.

    With all this in mind, it's IMO best to compare Crimea with the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. These territories involve present circumstances. Relative to Crimea, noting the Anschluss without any mention of Kosovo and northern Cyprus, serves as anti-Russian propagandist crock.

    During the the Liberal Nationalist popular uprisings of 1848, there were three options presented: Prussia unifies Little Germany without Austria and under Prussian hegemony, Austria releases its Eastern regions and joins with Greater Germany or the “Empire of Seventy Millions” [All-Germany plus the Eastern Hapsburg lands] is formed.

    The short-lived German Empire of 1848-49, that failed because the Prussian king refused to “pick up a crown from the gutter”, both included the Austrian Lands and elected an Austrian as Imperial Regent (Archduke Johann of Austria), which is unlikely to have happened unless Austria was seen as an integral part of Germany.

    As to Austria’s exclusion from Germany, this was quite deliberate.

    From AJP Taylor’s The Habsburg Monarchy 1809-1918:

    When the Linz radicals called on Germany for support, they confessed that the German Austrians had neither the strength nor the cultural superiority to maintain their monopoly in Austria. They assumed, too, that the German Austrians had voluntarily renounced the German national state, that Germany would come to their assistance at the first call, and that therefore they should be rewarded for not destroying the Habsburg Empire. These assumptions were false. The German Austrians had not renounced Germany; they had been deliberately excluded from Germany by Bismarck, and he had no intention of seconding their ambitions, still less of destroying
    Austria-Hungary. Bismarck feared Greater Germany, which would be beyond the power of the Prussian Junkers to master; and he feared, too, a blatant German hegemony in Europe, which would provoke a European coalition in resistance. The maintenance of an independent Austria-Hungary was the central point of Bismarck’s policy: independent, certainly, of Russia or of France, but independent, too, at any rate in appearance, of Germany. As a consequence, it was in his interest to minimise the German character of Austria-Hungary. After all, he knew that he could always assert German control if it were necessary. The Linz programme invited him to assert German control unnecessarily and was therefore without attraction.

    The German nationalists sensed their isolation, though they ascribed it to the subtlety of the Habsburg dynasty, not to the refusal of their hero Bismarck. While they continued to demand German supremacy in Austria, their day-to-day policy became resistance to Slav encroachments in their own national areas. One of their leaders expressed this policy: “In Czech Bohemia let them do as they like; in German Bohemia we shall do as we like. This was not at all the Linz programme; it was a denial of the unitary Austrian state, of which the Germans had been previously the great upholders.

    And as I noted before, as soon as the Empire collapsed after Great War, German-Austria quickly set out to unify with Germany before they were forbidden so by the imposition of the Treaty of Versailles.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    From the liberal nationalist Linz Programme of 1882:

    I. In the interest of making those crownlands of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy which previously belonged to the German Confederation into a maximally independent and strictly unitary organized whole, the following goals are to be pursued:

    1. Personal union with Hungary [i.e., the reduction of Austria's relationship with Hungary to nothing more than a sharing of the same Habsburg ruler];

    2. The incorporation of Dalmatia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina into Hungary;

    3. Either the unification of Galicia and the Bukovina with Hungary or the concession of a special status to those lands, similar to the status of Croatia vis-a-vis Hungary.

    II. In the interest of preserving the German character of those crownlands which previously belonged to the German Confederation, a law is demanded that declares German to be the State language. It is to be decreed in particular that:

    4. The German language is to be the exclusive language of the military, representative bodies, and public offices, and accordingly that all official internal communication is to be carried out exclusively in German, and no one is to be allowed to hold a State position or any other public office unless he is completely fluent in German;

    5. In areas with a linguistically mixed population, at least one elementary school is to use German as the language of instruction, and the German language is to be an obligatory subject in all secondary schools, at the same time that no student may be forced to acquire another language, whether native to the crownland or the district;

    6. All State exams, the successful completion of which qualifies candidates for employment by the State or crownland, are to be administered exclusively in German.

    [..]

    VII. As a precondition for a prospering economy, the following goals are to be pursued:

    19. Creation of a common customs area with the German Empire, together with Hungary and the Balkan countries;

    20. Introduction of obligatory trade associations and workers' factory associations, and the creation of Chambers of Commerce with separate sections for commerce, the trades, agriculture, forestry, and the interests of the working class;

    [...]

    XII. The devotion of special attention to foreign affairs.

    34. Support for a long-term strengthening of the alliance with Germany through a State treaty;

    35. Strong and purposeful policy in the Orient, in particular the defense of Austrian interests along the lower Danube and in the Balkan countries;

    36. Strong defense of Austria’s maritime interests, especially in the Mediterranean and in the Mediterranean countries.

     

    https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/FacultyInformation/jking/linz_pro[1].htm
  181. Say no to Chicken Kiev. Rename it Chicken Moscow.

  182. REMOVE BORSCH remove borsch you are worst hohol. you are the hohol idiot you are the hohol smell. return to lvov. to our lvov cousins you may come our contry. you may live in the zoo….ahahahaha ,ukrop we will never forgeve you. bandera rascal FUck but fuck asshole hohol stink ukraine xoxol khokhol..xoxol genocide best day of my life. take a bath of dead hohol..ahahahahahLVOV WE WILL GET YOU!! do not forget ww2 .kiev we kill bandera , hohol return to your precious polan….hahahahaha idiot hohol and baltic smell so bad..wow i can smell it. REMOVE BORSCH FROM THE PREMISES. you will get caught. russia+china+venezuela+bestkorea=kill ukraine…you will ww2/ drake alive in russia, drake making album of russia . fast rap drake russia. we are rich and have gold now hahahaha ha because of drake… you are ppoor stink hohol… you live in a hovel hahahaha, you live in a hut

    drake alive numbr one #1 in russia ….fuck the ukraine ,..FUCKk ashol hohol no good i spit in the mouth eye of ur flag and contry. drake aliv and real strong hotline bling kill all the xoxol farm aminal with rap magic now we the russki rule .ape of the zoo presidant fukc the great satan and lay egg this egg hatch and hohol wa;s born. stupid baby form the eggn give bak our clay we will crush u lik a skull of pig. russia greattst countrey

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Are you drunk, parodying something, or your account is hacked?
  183. @Mikhail

    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

     

    The people of Crimea were reunited with Russia. A view favored by the majority of ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea (numbering around 20% of Crimea's population) as well as a noticeable number of Tatars (between 10% and 15% of that territory).

    Crimea had been part of the RSFSR before 1954. Thereafter, it was still affiliated with Russia as a part of the USSR. There's also the pre-Soviet period Crimean affiliation with Russia.

    For a considerable period before 1938, Germany and Austria were separate from each other. Prior to 1938, there was a clearly established Austrian national identity, with Germany uniting in 1871, a few years after the Austro-Prussian War. At that point in time, the notion of a Ukrainian nation separate from Russia wasn't popular.

    Whereas Austria has a centuries national identity of its own, Crimea (in comparison) has more of a regional view of itself. Irregardless of the recent (in historical terms) development of a Cypriot and Kosovar nations.

    I sense that many Greek Cypriots wouldn't mind linking with Greece. The flip side being the parallel view that Turkish Cypriots have regarding Turkey. Similarly in Kosovo, the Serbs there would like for that area to be part of Serbia. Likewise, I sense that the Albanians in Kosovo would favor linking with Albania.

    With all this in mind, it's IMO best to compare Crimea with the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. These territories involve present circumstances. Relative to Crimea, noting the Anschluss without any mention of Kosovo and northern Cyprus, serves as anti-Russian propagandist crock.

    Austria was a German state. The Austrian foreign minister and de facto leader of the country was from another German province. The most famous Austrian composers often came from outside Austria, Beethoven, Brahms from elsewhere in Germany, Mozart and Haydn from areas which at the time didn’t belong to Austria.

    Its dialect (especially of the expanding educated classes) was pretty similar to other German dialects, and it never had a separate national identity. In the 1930s many Austrians didn’t want to join Germany because they didn’t want the totalitarian Nazi regime for themselves, it wasn’t a principled opposition to the eventual unification of the two countries.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    The Austrian foreign minister and de facto leader of the country was from another German province.
     
    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was.
  184. @AquariusAnon
    REMOVE BORSCH remove borsch you are worst hohol. you are the hohol idiot you are the hohol smell. return to lvov. to our lvov cousins you may come our contry. you may live in the zoo….ahahahaha ,ukrop we will never forgeve you. bandera rascal FUck but fuck asshole hohol stink ukraine xoxol khokhol..xoxol genocide best day of my life. take a bath of dead hohol..ahahahahahLVOV WE WILL GET YOU!! do not forget ww2 .kiev we kill bandera , hohol return to your precious polan….hahahahaha idiot hohol and baltic smell so bad..wow i can smell it. REMOVE BORSCH FROM THE PREMISES. you will get caught. russia+china+venezuela+bestkorea=kill ukraine…you will ww2/ drake alive in russia, drake making album of russia . fast rap drake russia. we are rich and have gold now hahahaha ha because of drake… you are ppoor stink hohol… you live in a hovel hahahaha, you live in a hut

    drake alive numbr one #1 in russia ….fuck the ukraine ,..FUCKk ashol hohol no good i spit in the mouth eye of ur flag and contry. drake aliv and real strong hotline bling kill all the xoxol farm aminal with rap magic now we the russki rule .ape of the zoo presidant fukc the great satan and lay egg this egg hatch and hohol wa;s born. stupid baby form the eggn give bak our clay we will crush u lik a skull of pig. russia greattst countrey

    Are you drunk, parodying something, or your account is hacked?

    • LOL: AquariusAnon
  185. @Hyperborean
    During the the Liberal Nationalist popular uprisings of 1848, there were three options presented: Prussia unifies Little Germany without Austria and under Prussian hegemony, Austria releases its Eastern regions and joins with Greater Germany or the "Empire of Seventy Millions" [All-Germany plus the Eastern Hapsburg lands] is formed.

    The short-lived German Empire of 1848-49, that failed because the Prussian king refused to "pick up a crown from the gutter", both included the Austrian Lands and elected an Austrian as Imperial Regent (Archduke Johann of Austria), which is unlikely to have happened unless Austria was seen as an integral part of Germany.

    As to Austria's exclusion from Germany, this was quite deliberate.

    From AJP Taylor's The Habsburg Monarchy 1809-1918:


    When the Linz radicals called on Germany for support, they confessed that the German Austrians had neither the strength nor the cultural superiority to maintain their monopoly in Austria. They assumed, too, that the German Austrians had voluntarily renounced the German national state, that Germany would come to their assistance at the first call, and that therefore they should be rewarded for not destroying the Habsburg Empire. These assumptions were false. The German Austrians had not renounced Germany; they had been deliberately excluded from Germany by Bismarck, and he had no intention of seconding their ambitions, still less of destroying
    Austria-Hungary. Bismarck feared Greater Germany, which would be beyond the power of the Prussian Junkers to master; and he feared, too, a blatant German hegemony in Europe, which would provoke a European coalition in resistance. The maintenance of an independent Austria-Hungary was the central point of Bismarck’s policy: independent, certainly, of Russia or of France, but independent, too, at any rate in appearance, of Germany. As a consequence, it was in his interest to minimise the German character of Austria-Hungary. After all, he knew that he could always assert German control if it were necessary. The Linz programme invited him to assert German control unnecessarily and was therefore without attraction.

    The German nationalists sensed their isolation, though they ascribed it to the subtlety of the Habsburg dynasty, not to the refusal of their hero Bismarck. While they continued to demand German supremacy in Austria, their day-to-day policy became resistance to Slav encroachments in their own national areas. One of their leaders expressed this policy: “In Czech Bohemia let them do as they like; in German Bohemia we shall do as we like. This was not at all the Linz programme; it was a denial of the unitary Austrian state, of which the Germans had been previously the great upholders.
     

    And as I noted before, as soon as the Empire collapsed after Great War, German-Austria quickly set out to unify with Germany before they were forbidden so by the imposition of the Treaty of Versailles.

    From the liberal nationalist Linz Programme of 1882:

    I. In the interest of making those crownlands of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy which previously belonged to the German Confederation into a maximally independent and strictly unitary organized whole, the following goals are to be pursued:

    1. Personal union with Hungary [i.e., the reduction of Austria’s relationship with Hungary to nothing more than a sharing of the same Habsburg ruler];

    2. The incorporation of Dalmatia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina into Hungary;

    3. Either the unification of Galicia and the Bukovina with Hungary or the concession of a special status to those lands, similar to the status of Croatia vis-a-vis Hungary.

    II. In the interest of preserving the German character of those crownlands which previously belonged to the German Confederation, a law is demanded that declares German to be the State language. It is to be decreed in particular that:

    4. The German language is to be the exclusive language of the military, representative bodies, and public offices, and accordingly that all official internal communication is to be carried out exclusively in German, and no one is to be allowed to hold a State position or any other public office unless he is completely fluent in German;

    5. In areas with a linguistically mixed population, at least one elementary school is to use German as the language of instruction, and the German language is to be an obligatory subject in all secondary schools, at the same time that no student may be forced to acquire another language, whether native to the crownland or the district;

    6. All State exams, the successful completion of which qualifies candidates for employment by the State or crownland, are to be administered exclusively in German.

    [..]

    VII. As a precondition for a prospering economy, the following goals are to be pursued:

    19. Creation of a common customs area with the German Empire, together with Hungary and the Balkan countries;

    20. Introduction of obligatory trade associations and workers’ factory associations, and the creation of Chambers of Commerce with separate sections for commerce, the trades, agriculture, forestry, and the interests of the working class;

    […]

    XII. The devotion of special attention to foreign affairs.

    34. Support for a long-term strengthening of the alliance with Germany through a State treaty;

    35. Strong and purposeful policy in the Orient, in particular the defense of Austrian interests along the lower Danube and in the Balkan countries;

    36. Strong defense of Austria’s maritime interests, especially in the Mediterranean and in the Mediterranean countries.

    https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/FacultyInformation/jking/linz_pro%5B1%5D.htm

    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    me like hungary. me hungry. me sausage eat. me want porn stars.... mmmm.... ME WANT PUSSY!!!
  186. @Hyperborean
    From the liberal nationalist Linz Programme of 1882:

    I. In the interest of making those crownlands of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy which previously belonged to the German Confederation into a maximally independent and strictly unitary organized whole, the following goals are to be pursued:

    1. Personal union with Hungary [i.e., the reduction of Austria's relationship with Hungary to nothing more than a sharing of the same Habsburg ruler];

    2. The incorporation of Dalmatia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina into Hungary;

    3. Either the unification of Galicia and the Bukovina with Hungary or the concession of a special status to those lands, similar to the status of Croatia vis-a-vis Hungary.

    II. In the interest of preserving the German character of those crownlands which previously belonged to the German Confederation, a law is demanded that declares German to be the State language. It is to be decreed in particular that:

    4. The German language is to be the exclusive language of the military, representative bodies, and public offices, and accordingly that all official internal communication is to be carried out exclusively in German, and no one is to be allowed to hold a State position or any other public office unless he is completely fluent in German;

    5. In areas with a linguistically mixed population, at least one elementary school is to use German as the language of instruction, and the German language is to be an obligatory subject in all secondary schools, at the same time that no student may be forced to acquire another language, whether native to the crownland or the district;

    6. All State exams, the successful completion of which qualifies candidates for employment by the State or crownland, are to be administered exclusively in German.

    [..]

    VII. As a precondition for a prospering economy, the following goals are to be pursued:

    19. Creation of a common customs area with the German Empire, together with Hungary and the Balkan countries;

    20. Introduction of obligatory trade associations and workers' factory associations, and the creation of Chambers of Commerce with separate sections for commerce, the trades, agriculture, forestry, and the interests of the working class;

    [...]

    XII. The devotion of special attention to foreign affairs.

    34. Support for a long-term strengthening of the alliance with Germany through a State treaty;

    35. Strong and purposeful policy in the Orient, in particular the defense of Austrian interests along the lower Danube and in the Balkan countries;

    36. Strong defense of Austria’s maritime interests, especially in the Mediterranean and in the Mediterranean countries.

     

    https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/FacultyInformation/jking/linz_pro[1].htm

    me like hungary. me hungry. me sausage eat. me want porn stars…. mmmm…. ME WANT PUSSY!!!

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Lay off the alcohol.
  187. I think we have to agree that of all the things Hitler did, the Anschluss and perhaps the peaceful conquest of the Sudetenland and Memel were by far the best things. They are only considered bad because of what came later, and also because they were not to last.

    If that’s the worst Putin did, then it’s not very bad.

    • Replies: @Beckow

    ...of all the things Hitler did, the Anschluss and perhaps the peaceful conquest of the Sudetenland and Memel were by far the best things.
     
    I woudn't say best, but those actions were least objectionable. If Germany stopped then, Europe would be a very different place today. Most Austrians craved Anschluss and most Germans living in Sudetenland wanted out of Czecho-Slovakia. If one takes the right to self-determination seriously, they had a point. In 1999 Nato with its Kosovo misguided adventure retroactively validated early Hitler. We have been living in a new world with no rules since then.

    But there were 2 problems:
    - it wasn't done very peaceful and the optics, esp. in Sudetenland, were ugly - half a million Czechs were immediately expelled
    - what followed: 6 months later Germany just took over the rump Czech state. That was unnecessary, it presaged what came in WWII, and Germans were no longer trustworthy.

    The lesson in Ukraine today is that outsiders shouldn't overreach. Ukraine is weak and will probably get weaker. The temptation to take advantage is there, by Russia, Nato, Poland, Hungary, Romania, maybe even Turkey. They should stay out and resist the temptation, it always backfires. But it will be hard.

  188. @Mikhail

    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

     

    The people of Crimea were reunited with Russia. A view favored by the majority of ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea (numbering around 20% of Crimea's population) as well as a noticeable number of Tatars (between 10% and 15% of that territory).

    Crimea had been part of the RSFSR before 1954. Thereafter, it was still affiliated with Russia as a part of the USSR. There's also the pre-Soviet period Crimean affiliation with Russia.

    For a considerable period before 1938, Germany and Austria were separate from each other. Prior to 1938, there was a clearly established Austrian national identity, with Germany uniting in 1871, a few years after the Austro-Prussian War. At that point in time, the notion of a Ukrainian nation separate from Russia wasn't popular.

    Whereas Austria has a centuries national identity of its own, Crimea (in comparison) has more of a regional view of itself. Irregardless of the recent (in historical terms) development of a Cypriot and Kosovar nations.

    I sense that many Greek Cypriots wouldn't mind linking with Greece. The flip side being the parallel view that Turkish Cypriots have regarding Turkey. Similarly in Kosovo, the Serbs there would like for that area to be part of Serbia. Likewise, I sense that the Albanians in Kosovo would favor linking with Albania.

    With all this in mind, it's IMO best to compare Crimea with the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. These territories involve present circumstances. Relative to Crimea, noting the Anschluss without any mention of Kosovo and northern Cyprus, serves as anti-Russian propagandist crock.

    Crimea is Turkey

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    It's literally Anglo-Saxon. The Varangian AS's were given lands there.
  189. @reiner Tor
    Austria was a German state. The Austrian foreign minister and de facto leader of the country was from another German province. The most famous Austrian composers often came from outside Austria, Beethoven, Brahms from elsewhere in Germany, Mozart and Haydn from areas which at the time didn’t belong to Austria.

    Its dialect (especially of the expanding educated classes) was pretty similar to other German dialects, and it never had a separate national identity. In the 1930s many Austrians didn’t want to join Germany because they didn’t want the totalitarian Nazi regime for themselves, it wasn’t a principled opposition to the eventual unification of the two countries.

    The Austrian foreign minister and de facto leader of the country was from another German province.

    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was.

    • Replies: @Mikhail

    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was
     
    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.

    Metternich was a German representing Austria, with Hitler serving as a reverse example. Russia had Catherine the Great, originally from Prussia.

  190. @AquariusAnon
    me like hungary. me hungry. me sausage eat. me want porn stars.... mmmm.... ME WANT PUSSY!!!

    Lay off the alcohol.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  191. 11:49 AM, 1 hr 37 min.

    • Replies: @AP
    1:42 PM - 1 hour 38 minute drive from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    Beckow was full of it :-)
  192. @AP

    Minority only? So on the one hand you are full of ‘going to Europe‘ aspirations, on the other hand the damn minorities have no rights?
     
    They should have rights but they should not have veto powers over national policies.

    Europe has rules, minorities have rights, incl. political representation, language rights, right to associate with whom they want. That’s Europe.
     
    Last I checked the Baltic Republics are in Europe. How is the situation of the Russian minority in Ukraine worse than in Baltics?

    And how about indigenous minorities in France?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breton_language#Education

    "In the late 20th century, the French government considered incorporating the independent Breton-language immersion schools (called Diwan) into the state education system. This action was blocked by the French Constitutional Council based on the 1994 amendment to the Constitution that establishes French as the language of the republic. Therefore, no other language may be used as a language of instruction in state schools. "

    Nobody was ‘in Russia’, so your comment makes no sense. The Russian-affiliated population in Ukraine is anywhere between 15-40% (speak Russian, ethnically Russian, or have cultural affinity).
     
    It was about 40%-45% when Crimea and Donbas were part of Ukraine. It would have been 20% or so now based in pure demographics but due to anti-Russia backlash might be closer to 15%.

    Pro-Russian political parties have about 15%-20% support so this probably reflects the size of the Russian minority in Ukraine. It is smaller than the one in Estonia and Latvia, larger than the one in Lithuania.

    And they cannot be turned into anti-Russian fanatics as many Galicians or Kievans have been. People don’t hate themselves and that is something that you have to account for.
     
    They'll just get absorbed, as the disappearing Russian minority in Lviv has been. I know a hardcore Ukrainian nationalist in Lviv who is 1/4 Russian - the Russian was a hero of Stalingrad who was stationed in Lviv after the war and married a local. Grand-kids are Banderists.

    I have part-Russian cousins in Lviv. None of my Galician relatives are Banderists but they think of themselves as Ukrainians.

    Same thing is happening in Kiev. Just as Ukrainians in Russia get assimilated, so do Russians in Ukraine. Not all of course, but enough. In Crimea or Donbas there were too many Russians for this to happen. These regions are gone, thank God.

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    • Replies: @AP
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  193. @Dmitry
    According to Instagram, this idiot drug addict is sadly the daughter of Brodsky.

    People try to write to her, but she cannot understand Russian.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/pPEAXVr0Tn

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BI7YHH2D6ZB


    Evidence against heredity of genius and IQ. Is it a counter-example to heritability of IQ, or is it victim of lead poisoning?

    Father is the famous poet to read at school in the 10th grade .

    But the daughter of a genius, cannot understand Russian, and can not write English correctly.

    People try to write to her and she does not respond.

    Everything about her instagram, indicates an "IQ test score result" of about 80.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BMlb7SejSK3/


    Same face as her brilliant father of his youth.
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a5/6d/ad/a56dad3b3f570b40f7bce46a67c60e27.jpg

    But strangely, brain completely removed

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BC8sP35L0fs/

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BEgTwWbr0W2/

    Brodsky's family in Russia seem normal and adequate.

    So alternatively an example of how Western culture destroys the brains of people who emigrate there, at least by the second generation.

    Brodsky's grandchildren in Russia look like normal people - according to Instagram is his grandaughter from Saint Petersburg (from his first marriage before he emigrated), who appears normal.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bo9g6wzjlR5/

    dat ass

  194. @reiner Tor

    The Austrian foreign minister and de facto leader of the country was from another German province.
     
    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was.

    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was

    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.

    Metternich was a German representing Austria, with Hitler serving as a reverse example. Russia had Catherine the Great, originally from Prussia.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.
     
    In what was Austria a national entity? Bavaria (a compact, homogenous state) has a greater claim to be a "national entity" based on that claim.
    , @reiner Tor
    Austrians were simply another kind of Germans, like Bavarians, Rheinlanders, Prussians, Svabians, etc. It was fully understood by everyone. Until 1945 no one had the idea that Austrians were somehow not Germans. In the 1950s in polls some 80% of Austrians said they were Germans. So it's a way more recent and superficial identity than Ukrainian.
  195. @Mikhail

    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was
     
    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.

    Metternich was a German representing Austria, with Hitler serving as a reverse example. Russia had Catherine the Great, originally from Prussia.

    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.

    In what was Austria a national entity? Bavaria (a compact, homogenous state) has a greater claim to be a “national entity” based on that claim.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    The Austrian Empire (later reformed as the Austro-Hungarian Empire) had been around for quite some time before Germany united in 1871 (in pretty much its current territorial form), a few years after the Austro-Prussian War.

    Bavaria has more in common with Austria than Prussia. Prussia was quite influential in the German unified state that came about in 1871. The Austro-Prussian War highlighted the differences between Austria and Prussia.

    All this is said without denying that the 1938 Anschluss appeared to have the support of most Austrians.
  196. @Hyperborean

    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.
     
    In what was Austria a national entity? Bavaria (a compact, homogenous state) has a greater claim to be a "national entity" based on that claim.

    The Austrian Empire (later reformed as the Austro-Hungarian Empire) had been around for quite some time before Germany united in 1871 (in pretty much its current territorial form), a few years after the Austro-Prussian War.

    Bavaria has more in common with Austria than Prussia. Prussia was quite influential in the German unified state that came about in 1871. The Austro-Prussian War highlighted the differences between Austria and Prussia.

    All this is said without denying that the 1938 Anschluss appeared to have the support of most Austrians.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    The Austrian Empire (later reformed as the Austro-Hungarian Empire) had been around for quite some time before Germany united in 1871 (in pretty much its current territorial form), a few years after the Austro-Prussian War.
     
    So had Prussia.

    The Austro-Prussian War highlighted the differences between Austria and Prussia.
     
    The whole phenomenon of German Dualism was about who would lead Germany and what character it would assume, but it doesn't make sense if Austria is interpreted as non-German.
    , @reiner Tor

    Bavaria has more in common with Austria than Prussia.
     
    Also Svabia and a few places like that. But that just means that since Bavarians, Svabians, etc. are all just normal Germans, then so must be Austrians.
  197. @Mikhail
    The Austrian Empire (later reformed as the Austro-Hungarian Empire) had been around for quite some time before Germany united in 1871 (in pretty much its current territorial form), a few years after the Austro-Prussian War.

    Bavaria has more in common with Austria than Prussia. Prussia was quite influential in the German unified state that came about in 1871. The Austro-Prussian War highlighted the differences between Austria and Prussia.

    All this is said without denying that the 1938 Anschluss appeared to have the support of most Austrians.

    The Austrian Empire (later reformed as the Austro-Hungarian Empire) had been around for quite some time before Germany united in 1871 (in pretty much its current territorial form), a few years after the Austro-Prussian War.

    So had Prussia.

    The Austro-Prussian War highlighted the differences between Austria and Prussia.

    The whole phenomenon of German Dualism was about who would lead Germany and what character it would assume, but it doesn’t make sense if Austria is interpreted as non-German.

    • Agree: AP, reiner Tor
  198. Prussia is a fake Chinese knockoff of Russia.

  199. @reiner Tor
    11:49 AM, 1 hr 37 min.

    1:42 PM – 1 hour 38 minute drive from Kosice to Uzhhorod.

    Beckow was full of it 🙂

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    To be honest, I expected Beckow to be correct. I didn't find it unbelievable that if it was something like 1 hr 31 min on Sunday late in the evening, then it could be 2.5-3 hours Monday morning. But now it doesn't look like it. It's possible that occasionally it's much longer.
  200. @AquariusAnon
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    [MORE]

  201. @AP

    Poland and Lithuania are not, and were not Western states during their rule over Ruthenia(s of varios colours). Catholicism does not equal Westernhood in cultural and especially administrative/economic sense.
     
    What a strange idea. Baroque architecture, Jesuit schools, use of Latin, Magdeburg rights for cities - but not Western?

    The "Latifundia" agricultural system was typical of Spain and southern Italy as well as Poland-Lithuania. Spain and Italy are not Western either?

    Bolsheviks failing and being defeated would result in the highest GDP and development in present-day Ukraine, but would probably make Ukrainians of present as common as Zmagars in Belarus
     
    In 1910 eastern Galicia had higher literacy and higher per capita GDP than did Russia.

    In the 1917 elections about 70% of people in Ukraine's core governates (Kiev, Poltava, Volhynia, Chernihiv) voted for Ukrainian nationalistic parties. These areas correspond to "Orange Ukraine." Even in so-called Novorossiya it was around 50% outside of Crimea and the city of Odessa. I don't think any substantial number of Belarusians did this. So already the situations were quite different.

    The best scenario for pro-Russians, if Bolsheviks were defeated, would be that Russian Ukraine would be like Catalonia. Not that it would disappear.

    Central powers winning the war, including the one in the East against post-February Revolution government would result in some honorary German/Goth future Lebensraum of Ukraine which would over time share the fate of the Slavs east of Elbe and in present-day Austria.
     
    Nonsnse. Because genocide wasn't on the table the number of Ukrainians was too large to disappear. Germans were going to turn Crimea into a German summer retreat but Ukraine would just be a large and populous puppet state in Germany's orbit. This would have been far better for Ukraine than was the Soviet nightmare.

    but there would be no need for Ukrainian anti-Russian proxy pet nation as originally envisioned by Vatican and German ideologues, nor space for them to inhabit.
     
    Since Russia would still exist and still be a substantial power, there would always be a need for an allied Spain-sized country in this neighborhood.

    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?

    What makes you think the Germans and Habsburgs would be in favour of it, and not in favour of a protectorate/vassal state/March?

    • Replies: @AP

    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?
     
    1. Hapsburgs didn't rule Volhynia (minor point)

    2. Ukraine would be too large to absorb fully. The independent state would be a German-Austrian vassal which naturally wouldn't claim parts of A-H. For A-H, this would be a lot safer than Russia next door. Austria-Hungary wanted to place a Hapsburg on the Ukrainian throne:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Wilhelm_of_Austria

    There were some conflicts between Austria-Hungary sand Germany over Ukraine; if Austria-Hungary had its person in charge of Ukraine it would be a little stronger and improve its position vis a vis its German ally. So Wilhelm was in Ukraine building his own powerbase with Galician support and undermining the Hetman, Germany wanted him removed but A-H did not do so.

    The loss of World War I meant that this conflict between Germany and A-H over Ukraine never got very far.

    What makes you think the Germans and Habsburgs would be in favour of it, and not in favour of a protectorate/vassal state/March?
     
    They would have wanted a vassal state allied to them. As I stated, for Ukrainians this would have been much much better than the Soviet nightmare.
    , @Mikhail

    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?
     
    Because some don't necessarily see the bigger picture down the road - instead seeing something different and in this case quite faulty.

    Pilsudski, elements in Germany and Austria-Hungary idea of an "independent Ukraine" was one that included Russian Empire territory, for the purpose of weakening Russia. In turn, the likes of Pilsudski anticipated a grateful "independent Ukraine", which would accept not having territory from outside the Russian Empire.
  202. @Mikhail

    The use of the term Anschluss and comparing Russia to Nazi Germany is of course intended as anti-Russian propaganda.

    But in objective terms, it makes sense. The Russians of Crimea were reunited with Russia.

    The major distinction is that Crimea was not an independent state, but part of the Ukraine.

    As such it actually has more in common with Nazi Germany’s acquisition of the Sudetenland and Memel.

    And Austria and Germany weren’t “separate” up until 1938 except for the period following 1871. By 1879 they were closely allied and would remain so until the dissolution of both empires. For most of the previous millennium it was one of many constituent German states of the Holy Roman Empire (and the following German Confederation).

    The Kievan Rus was in some respects similar to the HRE, especially the HRE prior to the Protestant Reformation.

     

    The people of Crimea were reunited with Russia. A view favored by the majority of ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea (numbering around 20% of Crimea's population) as well as a noticeable number of Tatars (between 10% and 15% of that territory).

    Crimea had been part of the RSFSR before 1954. Thereafter, it was still affiliated with Russia as a part of the USSR. There's also the pre-Soviet period Crimean affiliation with Russia.

    For a considerable period before 1938, Germany and Austria were separate from each other. Prior to 1938, there was a clearly established Austrian national identity, with Germany uniting in 1871, a few years after the Austro-Prussian War. At that point in time, the notion of a Ukrainian nation separate from Russia wasn't popular.

    Whereas Austria has a centuries national identity of its own, Crimea (in comparison) has more of a regional view of itself. Irregardless of the recent (in historical terms) development of a Cypriot and Kosovar nations.

    I sense that many Greek Cypriots wouldn't mind linking with Greece. The flip side being the parallel view that Turkish Cypriots have regarding Turkey. Similarly in Kosovo, the Serbs there would like for that area to be part of Serbia. Likewise, I sense that the Albanians in Kosovo would favor linking with Albania.

    With all this in mind, it's IMO best to compare Crimea with the situations in Kosovo and northern Cyprus. These territories involve present circumstances. Relative to Crimea, noting the Anschluss without any mention of Kosovo and northern Cyprus, serves as anti-Russian propagandist crock.

    The Austrian national identity is a purely postwar phenomenon, and not a particularly strong one. The main anti-immigration Austrian “nationalist” political party refused to even display Austrian symbols at its gatherings until the 1990s.

    Kurt Schusnigg, the last prewar leader of independent Austria, wished to pose this question to Austrian voters in his intended plebiscite to prevent the Anschluss:

    Are you for a free, German, independent and social, Christian and united Austria, for peace and work, for the equality of all those who affirm themselves for the people and Fatherland?

    The very word Austria in German simply means “eastern realm”.

    There was a considerable amount of Hapsburg patriotism in Austria, but this obviously was not the same thing as affirming a separate Austrian identity. Not all German in the empire were Hapsburg patriots (for instance, Adolf Hitler), and there was also Hapsburg patriotism in some of the non-German ethnic groups of the empire.

    Its early German history was somewhat comparable to Crimea. It was an eastern march of the German world that was invaded and colonized by Germans, just as Crimea was a southern march of the Russian world that was invaded and colonized by Russians.

    The Greeks, incidentally, have their own word for Anschluss: Enosis. This was very popular in Greece proper and in the Greek areas of Cyprus. The Greek dream of reunification was of course crushed by the Turkish invasion.

    Cyprus, incidentally, has never been part of any state calling itself Greece. If we consider the Byzantine Empire as a Greek state (they considered themselves Romans, though the oldest Greeks will still refer to themselves as Romans today) then it was last ruled from metropolitan Greece over eight centuries ago.

    I agree that the term Anschluss shouldn’t be used in most discussions since it has negative associations and thus is intended to stoke Russophobia.

    Kosovo and Cyprus do seem like more relevant examples in that they are contemporary issues. Another one might be Taiwan, though the Taiwanese are supposedly undergoing ethnogenesis. The incorporation of Goa into the Republic of India could be an appropriate comparison since it’s within living memory, Goa was not independent but controlled by another state (Portugal), and India isn’t a fascist state.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  203. AP says:
    @Epigon
    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?

    What makes you think the Germans and Habsburgs would be in favour of it, and not in favour of a protectorate/vassal state/March?

    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?

    1. Hapsburgs didn’t rule Volhynia (minor point)

    2. Ukraine would be too large to absorb fully. The independent state would be a German-Austrian vassal which naturally wouldn’t claim parts of A-H. For A-H, this would be a lot safer than Russia next door. Austria-Hungary wanted to place a Hapsburg on the Ukrainian throne:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Wilhelm_of_Austria

    There were some conflicts between Austria-Hungary sand Germany over Ukraine; if Austria-Hungary had its person in charge of Ukraine it would be a little stronger and improve its position vis a vis its German ally. So Wilhelm was in Ukraine building his own powerbase with Galician support and undermining the Hetman, Germany wanted him removed but A-H did not do so.

    The loss of World War I meant that this conflict between Germany and A-H over Ukraine never got very far.

    What makes you think the Germans and Habsburgs would be in favour of it, and not in favour of a protectorate/vassal state/March?

    They would have wanted a vassal state allied to them. As I stated, for Ukrainians this would have been much much better than the Soviet nightmare.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    An interesting person:

    When all of his attempts to gain power in Ukraine failed to produce results, Wilhelm moved to Paris where he led a bisexual and increasingly hedonistic lifestyle. He spent part of his time in salons among other aristocrats, but the remainder in gay bars - favouring black rent-boys and sailors. An informant for the French police claimed that Wilhelm carried on a sexual relationship with two of his male assistants.[7] In 1935 he became enmeshed in a legal situation caused by his lover Paulette Couyba, who had used Wilhelm without his knowledge to swindle investors of hundreds of thousands of Francs.[8] During the sensationalistic and well-publicized trial, Wilhelm fled Paris for Vienna.
     
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Conflict over the Ukraine in the event of a Central Powers victory would not have gone far in light of Germany's preponderance over Austria-Hungary. The neglect of the army in the years leading up to 1914, the contradictions of the multicultural empire, and its relative economic backwardness made it the weakest of the European great powers (except, perhaps, Italy) while Germany was the strongest (or at least a peer of Britain).

    The Austro-Hungarians could not even liquidate Serbia without German (and Bulgarian) assistance. At Brest-Litovsk the Joint Minister for Foreign Affairs Count Czernin was so desperate for peace at any price that he attempted to threaten General Hoffmann with a separate peace. Hoffmann's bemused reply was that this would be wonderful as it would immediately free up the 25 German divisions holding the Austro-Hungarian line.

    And as poor as the economic situation had grown in Germany, Austria-Hungary's economy was contracting and there were food riots in Vienna. The desperate Austro-Hungarians even stole a German shipment of Roumanian grain.

    In fact, Austria-Hungary's situation was so bad that the Ukrainian peace negotiators even demanded territory from Austria-Hungary or, failing that, establishing Galicia as an independent Hapsburg crown land (with all the implied outrages this would cause throughout the empire). The Germans politely slapped this down to Czernin's relief.

    There was some modest rivalry when the Central Powers advanced deeper into the east to bring the Bolsheviks back to the negotiating table (and to prevent the Ukrainian Bolsheviks from deposing the Ukrainian government), but unsurprisingly it was German troops that advanced into Kiev. The Austro-Hungarians had to content themselves with Odessa.

    In a postwar peace dictated by the Central Powers Austria-Hungary might have had about as much influence as Italy did at Versailles. Perhaps even less since there was no one to play off of Germany.

  204. @AP

    Why would the victorious Austro-Hungary support an independent Ukraine which would threaten its rule in Galicia and Volhynia?
     
    1. Hapsburgs didn't rule Volhynia (minor point)

    2. Ukraine would be too large to absorb fully. The independent state would be a German-Austrian vassal which naturally wouldn't claim parts of A-H. For A-H, this would be a lot safer than Russia next door. Austria-Hungary wanted to place a Hapsburg on the Ukrainian throne:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Wilhelm_of_Austria

    There were some conflicts between Austria-Hungary sand Germany over Ukraine; if Austria-Hungary had its person in charge of Ukraine it would be a little stronger and improve its position vis a vis its German ally. So Wilhelm was in Ukraine building his own powerbase with Galician support and undermining the Hetman, Germany wanted him removed but A-H did not do so.

    The loss of World War I meant that this conflict between Germany and A-H over Ukraine never got very far.

    What makes you think the Germans and Habsburgs would be in favour of it, and not in favour of a protectorate/vassal state/March?
     
    They would have wanted a vassal state allied to them. As I stated, for Ukrainians this would have been much much better than the Soviet nightmare.

    An interesting person:

    When all of his attempts to gain power in Ukraine failed to produce results, Wilhelm moved to Paris where he led a bisexual and increasingly hedonistic lifestyle. He spent part of his time in salons among other aristocrats, but the remainder in gay bars – favouring black rent-boys and sailors. An informant for the French police claimed that Wilhelm carried on a sexual relationship with two of his male assistants.[7] In 1935 he became enmeshed in a legal situation caused by his lover Paulette Couyba, who had used Wilhelm without his knowledge to swindle investors of hundreds of thousands of Francs.[8] During the sensationalistic and well-publicized trial, Wilhelm fled Paris for Vienna.

    • Replies: @AP
    Indeed. A guy who plotted with Ludendorff, and rented African sailors. However I checked the book and it mentions Algerians, not blacks so wikipedia was wrong. In Paris he also had a long affair with some Spanish duke, so evidently he had a taste for Arabic-looking men.

    No wonder modern Ukraine mostly has forgotten him.
    , @songbird
    Speaking of Wilhelms, Kaiser Wilhelm II was apparently friends with a gay circle of nobles. They supposedly hid it from him and it became a great issue of embarrassment, when one of them to trial.

    It was called the Leidenberg Circle and Bismark's son wrote "I have known for a long time that HM loves Phili Eulenberg ( their leader) more than any living person." They called Wilhelm "der Liebchen."

    I think there's a funny photo of Wilhelm riding a carriage with one beside him, with his arm on him. Some also remarked on his tendency to surround himself with handsome and tall military men.

    To be sure, I don't believe he was gay, but it is nevertheless very funny.
  205. @Mikhail

    I forgot to write his name, Metternich. It’s just an example of how German Austria was
     
    And yet Austria was a national entity for quite some time before Germany (in pretty much its modern territorial form) united in 1871, a few years after the Austrian-Prussian War.

    Metternich was a German representing Austria, with Hitler serving as a reverse example. Russia had Catherine the Great, originally from Prussia.

    Austrians were simply another kind of Germans, like Bavarians, Rheinlanders, Prussians, Svabians, etc. It was fully understood by everyone. Until 1945 no one had the idea that Austrians were somehow not Germans. In the 1950s in polls some 80% of Austrians said they were Germans. So it’s a way more recent and superficial identity than Ukrainian.

    • Replies: @Mikhail

    Austrians were simply another kind of Germans, like Bavarians, Rheinlanders, Prussians, Svabians, etc. It was fully understood by everyone. Until 1945 no one had the idea that Austrians were somehow not Germans. In the 1950s in polls some 80% of Austrians said they were Germans. So it’s a way more recent and superficial identity than Ukrainian.
     
    Not sure of that, seeing that an Austrian Empire in name had existed, when Ukraine/Ukrainians was nowhere near as evident.
  206. @Mikhail
    The Austrian Empire (later reformed as the Austro-Hungarian Empire) had been around for quite some time before Germany united in 1871 (in pretty much its current territorial form), a few years after the Austro-Prussian War.

    Bavaria has more in common with Austria than Prussia. Prussia was quite influential in the German unified state that came about in 1871. The Austro-Prussian War highlighted the differences between Austria and Prussia.

    All this is said without denying that the 1938 Anschluss appeared to have the support of most Austrians.

    Bavaria has more in common with Austria than Prussia.

    Also Svabia and a few places like that. But that just means that since Bavarians, Svabians, etc. are all just normal Germans, then so must be Austrians.