Just discovered this 2016 poll (Dalia) on percentage of people identifying as LGBT in Europe.
As I keep insisting, there’s something with Poland. 2.5x as many LGBT amongst youth as in Hungary. I think my prediction that Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2028 might just turn out correct.
What did surprise me is that there are many more American LGBT (12.1%) than in Europe (5.6%). Some 15% of young Americans identify as LGBT, versus 8% of young Europeans. Very, very interesting figures. Much higher than in the Gallup polls.
Though there is a very fast rise in the Gallup figures, too:
Dalia suggests several reasons why its results are much higher than those of Gallup:
First, our survey is representative for ages 14-65, while Gallup’s is for ages 18 and over; and because young people are more likely to identify as LGBTQ, our overall number is higher. Second, the much larger sample size in Europe (11.282 respondents) means that the margin of error in the EU is smaller than in the US (1.052 respondents) : +/-1.1% in the EU and +/-3.2% in the U.S. Therefore, the amount of Americans who identify as LGBTQ could be anywhere from 8.9% to 15.3%. This could also explain why the US survey results are much larger than our European results. Third, our surveys are conducted privately through mobile phones, which gives respondents more anonymity than face-to-face surveys or telephone interviews (which Gallup used to conduct its survey). Lowering social pressures and increasing privacy in how surveys are conducted might lead respondents to being less guarded and more honest with the answers they provide.